MLB JSON Audit Report

20260914_ATL@CHC

20260914_ATL@CHC.json • 2026-09-14

ATL 5 - CHC 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: RBI current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Austin Riley: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Sean Murphy: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=40; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=3; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alex Bregman: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Michael Busch: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=5; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Carson Kelly: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match CHC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match CHC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=41 matches CHC BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match ATL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match ATL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match ATL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=44 matches ATL BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.467 -> 0.510 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.466968, 'sample_size': 677, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5524, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.509684, 'published_confidence': 0.523824, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.476.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.524.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.524.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.525/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 7, CHC 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 5 - CHC 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CHC.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5238244799999999, 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_ATL@CHC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@CHC.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.333, 'home_run_delta': -0.0273, 'away_run_delta': 0.0273, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021808025322636215}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021452430210923322}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020982884491409903}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02064074387829181}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0199286331155204}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.045127448075079506, '1': 0.07283120247383311, '2': 0.10385802223298195, '3': 0.13086047072770202, '4': 0.14568766098819158, '5': 0.14331212173977953, '6': 0.12456296671265177, '7': 0.09566230106123023, '8': 0.0649140290530097, '9': 0.03892083691806256, '10': 0.02061919176075559, '11': 0.00965177007002818, '12': 0.003991978186694253}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.048227899365366735, '1': 0.07764386184217338, '2': 0.10990714498597667, '3': 0.13679012333883014, '4': 0.14969027009366168, '5': 0.14402650402294967, '6': 0.1218431960765565, '7': 0.09062962063538808, '8': 0.05927192850901777, '9': 0.034083012202948876, '10': 0.01723204810786206, '11': 0.007660301142645838, '12': 0.0029940896766227436}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0967, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.128, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1076}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0487, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0113, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1076, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 181.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 181.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 5 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 5 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.524.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match CHC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match CHC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=41 matches CHC BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match ATL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match ATL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match ATL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=44 matches ATL BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.467 -> 0.510 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.466968, 'sample_size': 677, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5524, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.509684, 'published_confidence': 0.523824, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.476.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.524.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.524.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.525/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 7, CHC 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 5 - CHC 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CHC.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5238244799999999, 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_ATL@CHC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@CHC.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.333, 'home_run_delta': -0.0273, 'away_run_delta': 0.0273, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021808025322636215}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021452430210923322}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020982884491409903}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02064074387829181}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.0199286331155204}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.045127448075079506, '1': 0.07283120247383311, '2': 0.10385802223298195, '3': 0.13086047072770202, '4': 0.14568766098819158, '5': 0.14331212173977953, '6': 0.12456296671265177, '7': 0.09566230106123023, '8': 0.0649140290530097, '9': 0.03892083691806256, '10': 0.02061919176075559, '11': 0.00965177007002818, '12': 0.003991978186694253}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.048227899365366735, '1': 0.07764386184217338, '2': 0.10990714498597667, '3': 0.13679012333883014, '4': 0.14969027009366168, '5': 0.14402650402294967, '6': 0.1218431960765565, '7': 0.09062962063538808, '8': 0.05927192850901777, '9': 0.034083012202948876, '10': 0.01723204810786206, '11': 0.007660301142645838, '12': 0.0029940896766227436}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0967, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.128, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1076}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0487, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0113, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.1076, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 181.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 181.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 5 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 5 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.524.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 6-5 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: RBI current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Austin Riley: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Sean Murphy: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=40; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=2, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=3; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alex Bregman: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Michael Busch: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=5; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Carson Kelly: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.385609082824654	4.808082230570342		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.524	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
ATL	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	5	7
CHC	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6	11

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ATL	batting	33	9	1	0	1	5	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		11			3		6	3	7					8.0	6	0	0
current	CHC	batting	33	8	1	0	2	5	5	4	7	0	0	0	0
current	CHC	pitching		7			1		5	4	9					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	ATL	batting	37	7	2	0	1	5	5	4	9	0	0
simulation	ATL	pitching		11			3		6	3	7					9.2	6	44	181
simulation	CHC	batting	40	11	3	0	3	6	6	3	7	0	1
simulation	CHC	pitching		7			1		5	4	9					10.0	5	41	170

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	ATL		DH	Drake Baldwin	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		CF	Michael Harris II	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ATL		LF	Mauricio Dubón	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	ATL		C	Sean Murphy	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ATL		SS	Ha-Seong Kim	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHC		3B	Alex Bregman	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	CHC		1B	Michael Busch	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		SS	Nico Hoerner	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	CHC		RF	Seiya Suzuki	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		2B	Pedro Ramirez	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHC		LF	Ian Happ	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		C	Carson Kelly	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHC		DH	Michael Conforto	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	1	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	5	3	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.333
simulation	ATL	2	DH	Drake Baldwin	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	3	1B	Matt Olson	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	4	2B	Ozzie Albies	5	5	2	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	ATL	5	CF	Michael Harris II	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	ATL	6	LF	Mauricio Dubón	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	7	3B	Austin Riley	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	8	C	Sean Murphy	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	9	SS	Ha-Seong Kim	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	5	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0.200
simulation	CHC	2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	5	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	CHC	3	1B	Michael Busch	5	4	2	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0.500
simulation	CHC	4	3B	Alex Bregman	5	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHC	5	LF	Ian Happ	5	5	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	CHC	6	SS	Nico Hoerner	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	CHC	7	DH	Michael Conforto	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	CHC	8	2B	Pedro Ramirez	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	9	C	Carson Kelly	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ATL	1	Reynaldo López	Starter	4.2	5	3	3	2	4	3	0	0	5.79	4.13	1.39
current	ATL	2	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.29	1.08
current	ATL	3	Dylan Dodd	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.38	0.93
current	ATL	4	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.78	1.16
current	ATL	5	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		2.81	0.89
current	ATL	7	Bailey Falter	Reliever	0.0	5	3	3	0	0	0	0	0
current	CHC	1	David Peterson	Starter	4.1	6	4	4	3	6	0	0	0	8.31	5.28	1.58
current	CHC	2	Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.63	1.29
current	CHC	3	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	3.96	1.28
current	CHC	4	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.29	1.24
current	CHC	5	Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0		4.15	1.26
simulation	ATL	1	Reynaldo López	Starter	4.2	5	3	3	2	4	3	21	91	5.79	4.13	1.39
simulation	ATL	2	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.78	1.16
simulation	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.81	0.89
simulation	ATL	4	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	5	20	0.00	2.29	1.08
simulation	ATL	5	Dylan Dodd	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.38	0.93
simulation	ATL	6	Bailey Falter	Reliever	0.1	5	3	3	0	0	0	7	23	81.00	10.38	2.46
simulation	CHC	1	David Peterson	Starter	4.1	6	4	4	3	6	0	22	91	8.31	5.28	1.58
simulation	CHC	2	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	21	0.00	3.29	1.24
simulation	CHC	3	Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	4.15	1.26
simulation	CHC	4	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	4	16	9.00	3.96	1.28
simulation	CHC	5	Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6	25	0.00	4.63	1.29

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ATL	Reynaldo López	Starter	4.2	3	5	2	4	21	91
ATL	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	1	0	1	5	20
ATL	Dylan Dodd	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
ATL	Raisel Iglesias	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
ATL	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
ATL	Bailey Falter	Reliever	0.1	3	5	0	0	7	23
CHC	David Peterson	Starter	4.1	4	6	3	6	22	91
CHC	Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.0	0	0	0	1	6	25
CHC	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	16
CHC	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	1	5	21
CHC	Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260914_BAL@NYM

20260914_BAL@NYM.json • 2026-09-14

BAL 4 - NYM 7

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=11, sim=12; ER: current=6, sim=7).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dylan Beavers: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Gunnar Henderson: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Heston Kjerstad: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Coby Mayo: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Pete Alonso: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jackson Holliday: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Carlos Narváez: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=12; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=3; Jared Young: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; A.J. Ewing: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Brett Baty: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Juan Soto: H current=1 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; Marcus Semien: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Bo Bichette: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match NYM pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=40 matches NYM BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match BAL pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=41 matches BAL BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.917 -> 0.727 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.917336, 'sample_size': 194, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5361, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.726718, 'published_confidence': 0.627507, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.372.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.628.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.628.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.478/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 9, NYM 12.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 4 - NYM 7.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYM.	{'winner_confidence': 0.627507, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_BAL@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@NYM.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016079632105609223}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016019318904797568}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01563725708348071}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015578603190131345}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.015010323688350825}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.014637142943814302, '1': 0.024235446897050802, '2': 0.03731879734208766, '3': 0.05344242238393699, '4': 0.07117484328283297, '5': 0.08815537407381192, '6': 0.10154369308441775, '7': 0.10877748284065991, '8': 0.1083694686446096, '9': 0.1004053308968088, '10': 0.08651441754043981, '11': 0.06932694989168359, '12': 0.05166513722690667, '13': 0.03580757990919387, '14': 0.02307991691058456, '15': 0.013834880138557907, '16': 0.007712558114232777, '17': 0.003998557878370143}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04673053716077582, '1': 0.07532248235283398, '2': 0.10700119543383216, '3': 0.13396544447904904, '4': 0.14782132924663358, '5': 0.14375454069282492, '6': 0.12321006701514581, '7': 0.0930702692770134, '8': 0.061960640906493676, '9': 0.03635473526939584, '10': 0.018799496848881523, '11': 0.008567845364610598, '12': 0.0034414159525096933}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.0202, 'recent_quality_edge': 1.0, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3369}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'BAL 4 - 7 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'BAL 4 - 7 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0188, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.0, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYM', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3369, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 4 - 7 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 4 - 7 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 7-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYM, simulation=NYM, published=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.628.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYM wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 4-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-7, final 4-7 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 7-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match NYM pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=40 matches NYM BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match BAL pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=41 matches BAL BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.917 -> 0.727 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.917336, 'sample_size': 194, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5361, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.726718, 'published_confidence': 0.627507, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.372.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.628.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.628.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.478/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 9, NYM 12.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 4 - NYM 7.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYM.	{'winner_confidence': 0.627507, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_BAL@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@NYM.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': False, 'sample_size': 0, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': 0.0, 'evidence': []}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016079632105609223}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.016019318904797568}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01563725708348071}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.015578603190131345}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.015010323688350825}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.014637142943814302, '1': 0.024235446897050802, '2': 0.03731879734208766, '3': 0.05344242238393699, '4': 0.07117484328283297, '5': 0.08815537407381192, '6': 0.10154369308441775, '7': 0.10877748284065991, '8': 0.1083694686446096, '9': 0.1004053308968088, '10': 0.08651441754043981, '11': 0.06932694989168359, '12': 0.05166513722690667, '13': 0.03580757990919387, '14': 0.02307991691058456, '15': 0.013834880138557907, '16': 0.007712558114232777, '17': 0.003998557878370143}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04673053716077582, '1': 0.07532248235283398, '2': 0.10700119543383216, '3': 0.13396544447904904, '4': 0.14782132924663358, '5': 0.14375454069282492, '6': 0.12321006701514581, '7': 0.0930702692770134, '8': 0.061960640906493676, '9': 0.03635473526939584, '10': 0.018799496848881523, '11': 0.008567845364610598, '12': 0.0034414159525096933}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.0202, 'recent_quality_edge': 1.0, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3369}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'BAL 4 - 7 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'BAL 4 - 7 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0188, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.0, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYM', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3369, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 4 - 7 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 4 - 7 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 7-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYM, simulation=NYM, published=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.628.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYM wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 4-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-7, final 4-7 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 7-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=11, sim=12; ER: current=6, sim=7).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dylan Beavers: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Gunnar Henderson: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Heston Kjerstad: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Coby Mayo: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Pete Alonso: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jackson Holliday: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Carlos Narváez: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=12; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=3; Jared Young: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; A.J. Ewing: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Brett Baty: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Juan Soto: H current=1 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; Marcus Semien: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Bo Bichette: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.272480249785751	4.605288492601485		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	7	0.628	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	7		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	7		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	7		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	7		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	9
NYM	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	7	12

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	BAL	batting	33	7	1	0	1	4	4	3	10	0	0	0	0
current	BAL	pitching		11			4		7	4	12					8.0	6	0	0
current	NYM	batting	34	8	1	0	1	4	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	NYM	pitching		9			2		4	2	6					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	BAL	batting	36	9	0	0	2	4	4	2	6	0	2
simulation	BAL	pitching		12			4		7	4	12					8.0	7	41	167
simulation	NYM	batting	36	12	2	0	4	7	7	4	12	0	1
simulation	NYM	pitching		9			2		4	2	6					9.0	4	40	156

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	BAL		LF	Dylan Beavers	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		SS	Gunnar Henderson	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		DH	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		RF	Heston Kjerstad	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	BAL		3B	Coby Mayo	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
current	BAL		1B	Pete Alonso	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		2B	Jackson Holliday	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		C	Carlos Narváez	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	BAL		CF	Colton Cowser	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		RF	Carson Benge	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		DH	Jared Young	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		SS	Francisco Lindor	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		CF	A.J. Ewing	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		1B	Brett Baty	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	NYM		LF	Juan Soto	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	NYM		2B	Marcus Semien	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		3B	Bo Bichette	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		C	Francisco Alvarez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	BAL	1	LF	Dylan Beavers	5	5	2	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	BAL	2	1B	Pete Alonso	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	3	SS	Gunnar Henderson	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	4	3B	Coby Mayo	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	5	2B	Jackson Holliday	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	BAL	6	DH	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	BAL	7	RF	Heston Kjerstad	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	8	CF	Colton Cowser	4	3	3	0	1	1	2	0	0	1	1.000
simulation	BAL	9	C	Carlos Narváez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	1	SS	Francisco Lindor	5	4	3	0	2	1	3	1	0	0	0.750
simulation	NYM	2	LF	Juan Soto	5	4	2	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	NYM	3	3B	Bo Bichette	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	4	RF	Carson Benge	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	0.200
simulation	NYM	5	DH	Jared Young	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	6	2B	Marcus Semien	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	7	CF	A.J. Ewing	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	1	0.333
simulation	NYM	8	1B	Brett Baty	4	4	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	NYM	9	C	Francisco Alvarez	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	BAL	1	Brandon Young	Starter	5.1	6	3	3	1	8	2	0	0	5.06	3.71	1.35
current	BAL	3	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.2	2	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	5.40	2.44	0.89
current	BAL	4	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	3	2	3	2	1	0	0	18.00	2.36	0.92
current	NYM	1	Jonah Tong	Starter	5.0	6	1	1	2	5	0	0	0	1.80	4.80	1.33
current	NYM	2	Daniel Duarte	Setup Man	1.1	2	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	13.50	2.20	0.80
current	NYM	3	Kodai Senga	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	7.14	1.60
current	NYM	4	Nathan Lavender	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.76	0.98
simulation	BAL	1	Brandon Young	Starter	5.1	7	3	3	1	8	2	25	104	5.06	3.71	1.35
simulation	BAL	2	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.2	2	1	1	0	2	1	7	29	5.40	2.44	0.89
simulation	BAL	3	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	3	3	3	2	1	9	34	27.00	2.36	0.92
simulation	NYM	1	Jonah Tong	Starter	5.0	6	1	1	2	5	0	25	96	1.80	4.80	1.33
simulation	NYM	2	Kodai Senga	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	4	16	9.00	7.14	1.60
simulation	NYM	3	Daniel Duarte	Setup Man	1.1	2	2	2	0	0	1	6	23	13.50	2.20	0.80
simulation	NYM	4	Nathan Lavender	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	21	0.00	1.76	0.98

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
BAL	Brandon Young	Starter	5.1	3	7	1	8	25	104
BAL	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	1.2	1	2	0	2	7	29
BAL	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	3	3	2	9	34
NYM	Jonah Tong	Starter	5.0	1	6	2	5	25	96
NYM	Daniel Duarte	Setup Man	1.1	2	2	0	0	6	23
NYM	Kodai Senga	Closer	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	16
NYM	Nathan Lavender	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	21

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260914_CHW@CLE

20260914_CHW@CLE.json • 2026-09-14

CHW 4 - CLE 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=8; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=11, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sam Antonacci: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Munetaka Murakami: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kyle Teel: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Colson Montgomery: AB current=4 box=3, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=7, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Chase DeLauter: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=2; José Ramírez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Angel Martínez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Patrick Bailey: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nathaniel Lowe: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match CLE pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match CLE pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match CLE pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=40 matches CLE BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match CHW pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match CHW pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=32 matches CHW BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.529 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 450, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5489, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5295, 'published_confidence': 0.505654, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.494.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.506.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.506.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.652/0.860.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 8, CLE 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 4 - CLE 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-08-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-08-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 8, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260809', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260809_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260808', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.7, 'artifact': '20260808_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260807', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.517443, 'artifact': '20260807_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260705', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.63, 'artifact': '20260705_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260704', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260704_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0305, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.302, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0028, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_CHW@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@CLE.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0115, 'away_run_delta': 0.0115, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024565129366264475}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023439527814950525}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023147141086178828}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02272196430298029}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.022358198209019454}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05377948133913337, '1': 0.08620311188165078, '2': 0.12042992034305199, '3': 0.1466395013434015, '4': 0.15562260182775048, '5': 0.14394596302526108, '6': 0.11604633472574541, '7': 0.0815395832138931, '8': 0.04993564539384273, '9': 0.026653728410908, '10': 0.012399677498648962, '11': 0.005027683521677602, '12': 0.0017767674750350535}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05613721876666249, '1': 0.08982111482928735, '2': 0.12481119438092869, '3': 0.1506177607857653, '4': 0.15785065329684037, '5': 0.143669351022459, '6': 0.11356105688332548, '7': 0.07795469395990832, '8': 0.0464732093942399, '9': 0.024060830265941763, '10': 0.010818476420062728, '11': 0.004224439994578583}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.28, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.512, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.0028}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0305, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.302, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0028, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 123.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 185.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 123.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 185.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 4 - 5 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 4 - 5 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.506.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match CLE pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match CLE pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match CLE pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=40 matches CLE BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match CHW pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match CHW pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=32 matches CHW BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.529 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 450, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5489, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5295, 'published_confidence': 0.505654, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.494.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.506.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.506.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.652/0.860.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 8, CLE 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 4 - CLE 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-08-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-08-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 8, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260809', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260809_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260808', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.7, 'artifact': '20260808_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260807', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.517443, 'artifact': '20260807_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260705', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.63, 'artifact': '20260705_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260704', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260704_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0305, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.302, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0028, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_CHW@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@CLE.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0115, 'away_run_delta': 0.0115, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024565129366264475}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023439527814950525}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023147141086178828}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02272196430298029}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.022358198209019454}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05377948133913337, '1': 0.08620311188165078, '2': 0.12042992034305199, '3': 0.1466395013434015, '4': 0.15562260182775048, '5': 0.14394596302526108, '6': 0.11604633472574541, '7': 0.0815395832138931, '8': 0.04993564539384273, '9': 0.026653728410908, '10': 0.012399677498648962, '11': 0.005027683521677602, '12': 0.0017767674750350535}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05613721876666249, '1': 0.08982111482928735, '2': 0.12481119438092869, '3': 0.1506177607857653, '4': 0.15785065329684037, '5': 0.143669351022459, '6': 0.11356105688332548, '7': 0.07795469395990832, '8': 0.0464732093942399, '9': 0.024060830265941763, '10': 0.010818476420062728, '11': 0.004224439994578583}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.28, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.512, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.0028}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0305, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.302, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0028, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 123.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 185.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 123.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 185.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 4 - 5 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 4 - 5 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.506.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=8; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=11, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sam Antonacci: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Munetaka Murakami: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kyle Teel: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Colson Montgomery: AB current=4 box=3, H current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=7, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Chase DeLauter: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=2; José Ramírez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Angel Martínez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Patrick Bailey: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nathaniel Lowe: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.552272735937544	4.377229796736421		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.506	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	4	8
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	5	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHW	batting	32	7	2	0	1	4	4	4	11	0	0	0	0
current	CHW	pitching		8			1		5	0	6					8.0	5	0	0
current	CLE	batting	33	8	2	0	1	4	5	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		8			0		4	5	7					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	CHW	batting	35	8	3	0	0	4	4	5	7	0	0
simulation	CHW	pitching		8			1		5	0	6					8.0	5	32	123
simulation	CLE	batting	32	8	0	0	1	5	5	0	6	0	0
simulation	CLE	pitching		8			0		4	5	7					9.0	4	40	185

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	CHW		LF	Sam Antonacci	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		1B	Munetaka Murakami	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	0.250
current	CHW		C	Kyle Teel	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		DH	Andrew Benintendi	0	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		CF	Tristan Peters	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		RF	Braden Montgomery	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	CHW		3B	Miguel Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		SS	Colson Montgomery	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
current	CHW		2B	Chase Meidroth	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		CF	Steven Kwan	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		DH	Chase DeLauter	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	CLE		2B	Travis Bazzana	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		3B	José Ramírez	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	CLE		LF	Angel Martínez	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		RF	Jo Adell	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		C	Patrick Bailey	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	CLE		1B	Nathaniel Lowe	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	CHW	1	LF	Sam Antonacci	5	5	2	1	0	1	3	0	0	0.400
simulation	CHW	2	C	Kyle Teel	5	5	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0.400
simulation	CHW	3	3B	Miguel Vargas	5	3	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	0.333
simulation	CHW	4	1B	Munetaka Murakami	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	CHW	5	DH	Andrew Benintendi	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CHW	6	CF	Tristan Peters	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	7	SS	Colson Montgomery	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.667
simulation	CHW	8	2B	Chase Meidroth	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHW	9	RF	Braden Montgomery	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	1	CF	Steven Kwan	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	2	3B	José Ramírez	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	CLE	3	DH	Chase DeLauter	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	CLE	4	RF	Jo Adell	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	CLE	5	2B	Travis Bazzana	4	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	CLE	6	LF	Angel Martínez	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	7	1B	Nathaniel Lowe	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	8	C	Patrick Bailey	3	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	CLE	9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHW	1	Sean Newcomb	Starter	5.0	6	3	3	0	3	0	0	0	5.40	2.77	1.11
current	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.40	1.03
current	CHW	3	Bryan Hudson	Setup Man	1.2	2	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	10.80	2.58	1.16
current	CLE	1	Gavin Williams	Starter	5.1	2	1	1	4	7	0	0	0	1.69	3.78	1.09
current	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.18	1.05
current	CLE	3	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.68	1.03
current	CLE	4	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	2.52	1.14
current	CLE	5	Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	3	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	27.00	2.96	1.22
simulation	CHW	1	Sean Newcomb	Starter	5.0	6	3	3	0	3	0	21	81	5.40	2.77	1.11
simulation	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	2.40	1.03
simulation	CHW	3	Bryan Hudson	Setup Man	1.2	2	2	2	0	1	1	7	25	10.80	2.58	1.16
simulation	CLE	1	Gavin Williams	Starter	5.1	2	1	1	4	7	0	22	101	1.69	3.78	1.09
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	25	0.00	2.18	1.05
simulation	CLE	3	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	0	6	22	9.00	2.52	1.14
simulation	CLE	4	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	16	0.00	2.68	1.03
simulation	CLE	5	Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	3	2	2	1	0	0	6	21	27.00	2.96	1.22

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHW	Sean Newcomb	Starter	5.0	3	6	0	3	21	81
CHW	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	17
CHW	Bryan Hudson	Setup Man	1.2	2	2	0	1	7	25
CLE	Gavin Williams	Starter	5.1	1	2	4	7	22	101
CLE	Cade Smith	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	25
CLE	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
CLE	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	1	3	0	0	6	22
CLE	Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	2	3	1	0	6	21

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260914_DET@TOR

20260914_DET@TOR.json • 2026-09-14

DET 5 - TOR 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=34; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Dillon Dingler: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Brett Callahan: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Gleyber Torres: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Hao-Yu Lee: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Max Clark: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Spencer Torkelson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alejandro Kirk: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brett Bateman: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; George Springer: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Josh Smith: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Nathan Lukes: H current=1 box=0; Andrés Giménez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match TOR pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match TOR pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=39 matches TOR BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match DET pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match DET pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match DET pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=40 matches DET BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.529 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 450, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5489, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5295, 'published_confidence': 0.505654, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.506.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.506.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.494.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.693/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 7, TOR 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 5 - TOR 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for DET; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'DET', 'opponent_team': 'TOR', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-05-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-05-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'DET'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'DET', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'output_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'simulation_score_winner': 'DET', 'final_score_winner': 'DET', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 5 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 5 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0639, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0353, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4635, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_DET@TOR.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@TOR.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0205, 'away_run_delta': -0.0205, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024657541109169154}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023573299848026356}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023276977297951983}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.022753589708159095}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022386513888703094}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05648637439482895, '1': 0.09035478004473478, '2': 0.12544861859855236, '3': 0.1511777757187428, '4': 0.15813111628874263, '5': 0.14356680641273167, '6': 0.11313528113266758, '7': 0.07738368350748868, '8': 0.04594180501588102, '9': 0.023674129970911006, '10': 0.010588813968992578, '11': 0.004110814945725941}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.054112991253100706, '1': 0.08671491494811824, '2': 0.12104951044813868, '3': 0.1472004868127847, '4': 0.15593098744806955, '5': 0.14389065379524502, '6': 0.11566706525048866, '7': 0.0809960465534369, '8': 0.04940772987969576, '9': 0.02625445168072814, '10': 0.012153125399539179, '11': 0.0049006081686854466, '12': 0.0017214283619688925}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.6312, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.152, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4635}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 5 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 5 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0639, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0353, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4635, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 182.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 182.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 5 - 4 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 5 - 4 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=DET, simulation=DET, published=DET.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.506.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): DET wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: DET wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match TOR pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match TOR pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=39 matches TOR BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match DET pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match DET pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match DET pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=40 matches DET BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.529 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 450, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5489, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5295, 'published_confidence': 0.505654, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.506.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.506.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.494.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.693/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 7, TOR 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 5 - TOR 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for DET; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'DET', 'opponent_team': 'TOR', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-05-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-05-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'DET'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'DET', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'output_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'simulation_score_winner': 'DET', 'final_score_winner': 'DET', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 5 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 5 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0639, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0353, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4635, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_DET@TOR.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@TOR.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0205, 'away_run_delta': -0.0205, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024657541109169154}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023573299848026356}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023276977297951983}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.022753589708159095}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022386513888703094}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05648637439482895, '1': 0.09035478004473478, '2': 0.12544861859855236, '3': 0.1511777757187428, '4': 0.15813111628874263, '5': 0.14356680641273167, '6': 0.11313528113266758, '7': 0.07738368350748868, '8': 0.04594180501588102, '9': 0.023674129970911006, '10': 0.010588813968992578, '11': 0.004110814945725941}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.054112991253100706, '1': 0.08671491494811824, '2': 0.12104951044813868, '3': 0.1472004868127847, '4': 0.15593098744806955, '5': 0.14389065379524502, '6': 0.11566706525048866, '7': 0.0809960465534369, '8': 0.04940772987969576, '9': 0.02625445168072814, '10': 0.012153125399539179, '11': 0.0049006081686854466, '12': 0.0017214283619688925}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.6312, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.152, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4635}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 5 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 5 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0639, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0353, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'DET', 'model_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner': 'DET', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'DET', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4635, 'winner': 'DET', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 182.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 182.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 5 - 4 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 5 - 4 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=DET, simulation=DET, published=DET.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.506.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): DET wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: DET wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=34; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Dillon Dingler: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Brett Callahan: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Gleyber Torres: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Hao-Yu Lee: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Max Clark: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Spencer Torkelson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alejandro Kirk: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brett Bateman: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; George Springer: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Josh Smith: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Nathan Lukes: H current=1 box=0; Andrés Giménez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.097277328278955	4.3069216623282385		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.506	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	7
TOR	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	DET	batting	31	7	1	0	1	4	5	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	DET	pitching		9			1		4	3	11					9.0	4	0	0
current	TOR	batting	33	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	TOR	pitching		6			1		5	5	12					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	DET	batting	34	7	1	0	2	5	5	5	12	0	0
simulation	DET	pitching		9			1		4	3	11					9.0	4	40	166
simulation	TOR	batting	36	9	2	0	1	4	4	3	11	0	1
simulation	TOR	pitching		7			2		5	5	12					9.0	5	39	182

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	DET		DH	Riley Greene	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	DET		SS	Kevin McGonigle	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	DET		C	Dillon Dingler	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		LF	Brett Callahan	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	DET		2B	Gleyber Torres	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	DET		3B	Hao-Yu Lee	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	DET		CF	Max Clark	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	DET		1B	Spencer Torkelson	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	DET		RF	Zach McKinstry	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	TOR		C	Alejandro Kirk	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		CF	Brett Bateman	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		DH	George Springer	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		LF	Josh Smith	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	TOR		RF	Nathan Lukes	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		SS	Andrés Giménez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TOR		2B	Ernie Clement	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	DET	1	SS	Kevin McGonigle	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	DET	2	2B	Gleyber Torres	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	DET	3	DH	Riley Greene	5	5	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	DET	4	C	Dillon Dingler	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	DET	5	LF	Brett Callahan	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	DET	6	CF	Max Clark	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	DET	7	1B	Spencer Torkelson	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	DET	8	RF	Zach McKinstry	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	DET	9	3B	Hao-Yu Lee	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	1	CF	Brett Bateman	5	5	2	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	TOR	2	DH	George Springer	5	5	3	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.600
simulation	TOR	3	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	4	C	Alejandro Kirk	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	5	RF	Nathan Lukes	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	6	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	TOR	7	SS	Andrés Giménez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	8	LF	Josh Smith	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	TOR	9	2B	Ernie Clement	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	DET	1	Troy Melton	Starter	6.0	7	3	3	2	6	1	0	0	4.50	2.42	1.05
current	DET	2	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.74	1.23
current	DET	3	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.07	1.07
current	DET	4	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	13.50	3.19	1.45
current	TOR	1	José Soriano	Starter	5.2	4	5	5	4	7	1	0	0	7.94	3.48	1.28
current	TOR	2	Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.71	1.06
current	TOR	3	Louis Varland	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.23	1.00
current	TOR	4	Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.73	1.15
simulation	DET	1	Troy Melton	Starter	6.0	7	3	3	2	6	1	28	117	4.50	2.42	1.05
simulation	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.07	1.07
simulation	DET	3	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	5	21	0.00	2.74	1.23
simulation	DET	4	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	0	3	11	13.50	3.19	1.45
simulation	TOR	1	José Soriano	Starter	5.2	4	4	4	4	7	1	25	111	6.35	3.48	1.28
simulation	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	16	0.00	1.23	1.00
simulation	TOR	3	Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	1.73	1.15
simulation	TOR	4	Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	1	1	1	2	1	7	39	6.75	2.71	1.06

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
DET	Troy Melton	Starter	6.0	3	7	2	6	28	117
DET	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.1	0	1	0	2	5	21
DET	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
DET	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	0	2	3	11
TOR	José Soriano	Starter	5.2	4	4	4	7	25	111
TOR	Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	2	1	2	7	39
TOR	Louis Varland	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	16
TOR	Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260914_LAD@CIN

20260914_LAD@CIN.json • 2026-09-14

LAD 8 - CIN 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=7, sim=8).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=11, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Stephenson: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Dane Myers: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Juan Brito: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Elly De La Cruz: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; TJ Friedl: SO current=1 box=0; Ke'Bryan Hayes: AB current=3 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; JJ Bleday: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=39; H: current=8, sim=12; RBI: current=4, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Edman: H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4, BB current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Will Smith: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Enrique Hernández: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Josue De Paula: H current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Miguel Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match LAD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match LAD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=34 matches LAD BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match CIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match CIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match CIN pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=44 matches CIN BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 8.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.742 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 119, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.563, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.7415, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.494/0.676.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 12, CIN 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 8 - CIN 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 17, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 14, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 13, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-09-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-09-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260909', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 13, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260909_CIN@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260908', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.671836, 'artifact': '20260908_CIN@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260907', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.532561, 'artifact': '20260907_CIN@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 8 - 3 CIN', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 8 - 3 CIN', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0291, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.462, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 5, 'simulation_margin': 5, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 5, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.8942, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_LAD@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@CIN.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -17.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 17.0, 'home_average_margin': -5.667, 'home_run_delta': -0.1159, 'away_run_delta': 0.1159, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -13.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.019215902971238305}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.018953021935637762}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.018881974742337077}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.018623661974944444}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.018043862403489}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06719876567068613, '1': 0.10659189853176425, '2': 0.1443129667115961, '3': 0.1667649460990073, '4': 0.16448353669566085, '5': 0.13847085031425563, '6': 0.09949758463965397, '7': 0.0610217941615969, '8': 0.03194299713702464, '9': 0.014271992471951194, '10': 0.005442667566803256}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.018811531567358646, '1': 0.031024557224117993, '2': 0.0472109079925498, '3': 0.06628792720073853, '4': 0.08587798574525297, '5': 0.10265605837301998, '6': 0.1132250822731473, '7': 0.11522747088485817, '8': 0.10819937178390279, '9': 0.09374514247822949, '10': 0.074942492384215, '11': 0.05527933579659218, '12': 0.03762294820057605, '13': 0.023626432936543693, '14': 0.013689853976752903, '15': 0.007319051421646923, '16': 0.003610489661919862, '17': 0.0016433600985778542}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.3154, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.112, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.8942}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 8 - 3 CIN', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 8 - 3 CIN', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0291, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.462, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 5, 'simulation_margin': 5, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 5, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.8942, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 8 - 3 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 8 - 3 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 8-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 8-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 8-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 8-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 8-3, final 8-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 8-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match LAD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match LAD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=34 matches LAD BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match CIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match CIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match CIN pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=44 matches CIN BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 8.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.920 -> 0.742 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.92, 'sample_size': 119, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.563, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.7415, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.494/0.676.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 12, CIN 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 8 - CIN 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 17, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 14, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 13, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-09-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-09-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260909', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 13, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260909_CIN@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260908', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.671836, 'artifact': '20260908_CIN@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260907', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.532561, 'artifact': '20260907_CIN@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 8 - 3 CIN', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 8 - 3 CIN', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0291, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.462, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 5, 'simulation_margin': 5, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 5, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.8942, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_LAD@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@CIN.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -17.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 17.0, 'home_average_margin': -5.667, 'home_run_delta': -0.1159, 'away_run_delta': 0.1159, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -13.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.019215902971238305}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.018953021935637762}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.018881974742337077}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.018623661974944444}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.018043862403489}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06719876567068613, '1': 0.10659189853176425, '2': 0.1443129667115961, '3': 0.1667649460990073, '4': 0.16448353669566085, '5': 0.13847085031425563, '6': 0.09949758463965397, '7': 0.0610217941615969, '8': 0.03194299713702464, '9': 0.014271992471951194, '10': 0.005442667566803256}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.018811531567358646, '1': 0.031024557224117993, '2': 0.0472109079925498, '3': 0.06628792720073853, '4': 0.08587798574525297, '5': 0.10265605837301998, '6': 0.1132250822731473, '7': 0.11522747088485817, '8': 0.10819937178390279, '9': 0.09374514247822949, '10': 0.074942492384215, '11': 0.05527933579659218, '12': 0.03762294820057605, '13': 0.023626432936543693, '14': 0.013689853976752903, '15': 0.007319051421646923, '16': 0.003610489661919862, '17': 0.0016433600985778542}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.3154, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.112, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.8942}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 8 - 3 CIN', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 8 - 3 CIN', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0291, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.462, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 5, 'simulation_margin': 5, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 5, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.8942, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 8 - 3 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 8 - 3 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 8-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 8-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 8-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 8-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 8-3, final 8-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 8-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=7, sim=8).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=11, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Stephenson: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Dane Myers: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Juan Brito: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Elly De La Cruz: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; TJ Friedl: SO current=1 box=0; Ke'Bryan Hayes: AB current=3 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; JJ Bleday: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=39; H: current=8, sim=12; RBI: current=4, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Edman: H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4, BB current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Will Smith: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Enrique Hernández: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Josue De Paula: H current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Miguel Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.077852642343052	2.4951443947040333		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	2		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	7	3	0.580	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	8	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	8	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	8	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	8	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	2	1	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	12
CIN	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	LAD	batting	32	8	1	0	1	4	5	4	7	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		5			1		3	2	8					9.0	3	0	0
current	CIN	batting	32	7	1	0	1	4	4	3	11	0	0	0	0
current	CIN	pitching		12			1		8	5	7					9.0	7	0	0
simulation	LAD	batting	39	12	1	0	1	8	8	5	7	0	0
simulation	LAD	pitching		5			1		3	2	8					9.0	3	34	162
simulation	CIN	batting	32	5	3	0	1	3	3	2	8	0	0
simulation	CIN	pitching		12			1		8	5	7					9.0	8	44	171

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	LAD		CF	Tommy Edman	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		SS	Mookie Betts	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		C	Will Smith	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		1B	Enrique Hernández	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		DH	Josue De Paula	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.000
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		2B	Miguel Rojas	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	LAD		3B	Max Muncy	0	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.333
current	CIN		C	Tyler Stephenson	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	CIN		CF	Dane Myers	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	CIN		1B	Sal Stewart	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CIN		2B	Juan Brito	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CIN		SS	Elly De La Cruz	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	0.250
current	CIN		DH	TJ Friedl	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	CIN		3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	CIN		LF	JJ Bleday	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CIN		RF	Eugenio Suárez	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.333
simulation	LAD	1	CF	Tommy Edman	5	4	3	0	1	1	4	1	1	0.750
simulation	LAD	2	SS	Mookie Betts	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	LAD	3	C	Will Smith	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.200
simulation	LAD	4	RF	Kyle Tucker	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	LAD	5	LF	Teoscar Hernández	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	LAD	6	2B	Miguel Rojas	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	7	3B	Max Muncy	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.500
simulation	LAD	8	1B	Enrique Hernández	5	5	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	0.200
simulation	LAD	9	DH	Josue De Paula	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	CIN	1	CF	Dane Myers	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CIN	2	SS	Elly De La Cruz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	3	1B	Sal Stewart	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CIN	4	C	Tyler Stephenson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CIN	5	DH	Eugenio Suárez	4	4	3	2	0	1	0	0	1	0.750
simulation	CIN	6	2B	Juan Brito	4	4	2	1	1	1	3	0	1	0.500
simulation	CIN	7	LF	JJ Bleday	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CIN	8	3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	9	CF	TJ Friedl	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	LAD	1	Tarik Skubal	Starter	6.2	5	3	3	1	7	1	0	0	4.05	2.84	0.97
current	LAD	2	Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.85	1.03
current	LAD	3	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.38	1.01
current	LAD	4	Tanner Scott	Closer	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.91	1.01
current	CIN	1	Nick Lodolo	Starter	4.1	9	8	7	3	3	1	0	0	14.54	5.12	1.53
current	CIN	2	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.43	1.28
current	CIN	3	Emilio Pagán	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.72	1.03
current	CIN	4	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	6.59	1.74
current	CIN	5	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	5.82	1.55
current	CIN	6	Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.90	1.03
current	CIN	7	Pierce Johnson	Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
simulation	LAD	1	Tarik Skubal	Starter	6.2	5	3	3	1	7	1	26	115	4.05	2.84	0.97
simulation	LAD	2	Tanner Scott	Closer	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	12	0.00	2.91	1.01
simulation	LAD	3	Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	25	0.00	2.85	1.03
simulation	LAD	4	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	10	0.00	2.38	1.01
simulation	CIN	1	Nick Lodolo	Starter	4.1	9	8	8	3	3	1	25	94	16.62	5.12	1.53
simulation	CIN	2	Emilio Pagán	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	20	0.00	3.72	1.03
simulation	CIN	3	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	6.59	1.74
simulation	CIN	4	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.43	1.28
simulation	CIN	5	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	17	0.00	5.82	1.55
simulation	CIN	6	Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	7	0.00	2.90	1.03
simulation	CIN	7	Pierce Johnson	Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	0.00	4.74	1.37

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
LAD	Tarik Skubal	Starter	6.2	3	5	1	7	26	115
LAD	Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	25
LAD	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	10
LAD	Tanner Scott	Closer	0.2	0	0	1	0	3	12
CIN	Nick Lodolo	Starter	4.1	8	9	3	3	25	94
CIN	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
CIN	Emilio Pagán	Closer	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	20
CIN	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
CIN	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	17
CIN	Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	1	0	1	2	7
CIN	Pierce Johnson	Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260914_MIA@ARI

20260914_MIA@ARI.json • 2026-09-14

MIA 5 - ARI 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=5, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Gabriel Moreno: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Pavin Smith: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Ketel Marte: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nolan Arenado: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Xavier Edwards: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Heriberto Hernández: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Griffin Conine: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Otto Lopez: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jakob Marsee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Joe Mack: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match MIA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match MIA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match MIA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=36 matches MIA BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match ARI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match ARI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=37 matches ARI BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.594 -> 0.573 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.593811, 'sample_size': 584, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5514, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.572605, 'published_confidence': 0.517426, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.517.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.517.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.483.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.526/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIA 8, ARI 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIA 5 - ARI 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIA.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5174260625, 'h2h_net_margin': 14, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_MIA@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIA@ARI.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -14.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 14.0, 'home_average_margin': -4.667, 'home_run_delta': -0.0955, 'away_run_delta': 0.0955, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02133529638563516}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020505719530818183}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019958443652600532}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019919383740625265}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.019860140843179032}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.052464162283958275, '1': 0.08418197713778118, '2': 0.11797248027543546, '3': 0.14439345513045246, '4': 0.15435457869244784, '5': 0.14411086818402663, '6': 0.11751117320064575, '7': 0.08368869573114211, '8': 0.05205466389015208, '9': 0.028278586888251314, '10': 0.013417171471762464, '11': 0.005559931570132464, '12': 0.002012255543812074}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.037244366341482565, '1': 0.06048453580303114, '2': 0.08787960383023259, '3': 0.11423305859134464, '4': 0.13284814551355756, '5': 0.13822263366832693, '6': 0.12866570600895777, '7': 0.10715351634718369, '8': 0.07983806888575332, '9': 0.0532198439001467, '10': 0.03173928545913028, '11': 0.016934823341914255, '12': 0.008083960302339875, '13': 0.0034524520065985524}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0233, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.428, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.165}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIA 5 - 4 ARI', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIA 5 - 4 ARI', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0107, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.078, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'MIA', 'model_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'MIA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.4, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.165, 'winner': 'MIA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 150.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 150.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIA 5 - 4 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIA 5 - 4 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIA, simulation=MIA, published=MIA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.517.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match MIA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match MIA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match MIA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=36 matches MIA BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match ARI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match ARI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=37 matches ARI BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.594 -> 0.573 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.593811, 'sample_size': 584, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5514, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.572605, 'published_confidence': 0.517426, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.517.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.517.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.483.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.526/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIA 8, ARI 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIA 5 - ARI 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIA.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5174260625, 'h2h_net_margin': 14, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_MIA@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIA@ARI.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -14.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 14.0, 'home_average_margin': -4.667, 'home_run_delta': -0.0955, 'away_run_delta': 0.0955, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02133529638563516}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020505719530818183}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019958443652600532}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019919383740625265}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.019860140843179032}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.052464162283958275, '1': 0.08418197713778118, '2': 0.11797248027543546, '3': 0.14439345513045246, '4': 0.15435457869244784, '5': 0.14411086818402663, '6': 0.11751117320064575, '7': 0.08368869573114211, '8': 0.05205466389015208, '9': 0.028278586888251314, '10': 0.013417171471762464, '11': 0.005559931570132464, '12': 0.002012255543812074}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.037244366341482565, '1': 0.06048453580303114, '2': 0.08787960383023259, '3': 0.11423305859134464, '4': 0.13284814551355756, '5': 0.13822263366832693, '6': 0.12866570600895777, '7': 0.10715351634718369, '8': 0.07983806888575332, '9': 0.0532198439001467, '10': 0.03173928545913028, '11': 0.016934823341914255, '12': 0.008083960302339875, '13': 0.0034524520065985524}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.0233, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.428, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.165}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIA 5 - 4 ARI', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIA 5 - 4 ARI', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0107, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.078, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'MIA', 'model_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'MIA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.4, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.165, 'winner': 'MIA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 150.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 150.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIA 5 - 4 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIA 5 - 4 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIA, simulation=MIA, published=MIA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.517.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=5, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Gabriel Moreno: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Pavin Smith: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Ketel Marte: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nolan Arenado: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Xavier Edwards: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Heriberto Hernández: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Griffin Conine: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Otto Lopez: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jakob Marsee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Joe Mack: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.803531059191406	4.711044065923282		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.517	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	1	5	8
ARI	0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIA	batting	34	8	2	0	1	4	5	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	MIA	pitching		7			1		4	2	7					9.0	4	0	0
current	ARI	batting	33	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	5	0	0	0	0
current	ARI	pitching		8			3		5	2	10					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	MIA	batting	35	8	1	0	3	5	5	2	10	0	0
simulation	MIA	pitching		7			1		4	2	7					9.0	4	36	150
simulation	ARI	batting	34	7	2	0	1	4	4	2	7	0	0
simulation	ARI	pitching		8			3		5	2	10					9.0	5	37	153

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	MIA		1B	Kyle Stowers	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		2B	Xavier Edwards	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	MIA		LF	Heriberto Hernández	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		RF	Griffin Conine	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIA		SS	Otto Lopez	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	MIA		CF	Jakob Marsee	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	MIA		3B	Javier Sanoja	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	MIA		C	Joe Mack	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		DH	Agustín Ramírez	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	ARI		LF	Lars Nootbaar	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	ARI		SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		RF	Corbin Carroll	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	ARI		C	Gabriel Moreno	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		DH	Pavin Smith	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	ARI		2B	Ketel Marte	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		3B	Nolan Arenado	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		1B	Tim Tawa	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	ARI		CF	Jordan Lawlar	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	MIA	1	1B	Kyle Stowers	5	5	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0.200
simulation	MIA	2	LF	Heriberto Hernández	4	4	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	MIA	3	2B	Xavier Edwards	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	MIA	4	RF	Griffin Conine	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	MIA	5	SS	Otto Lopez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	MIA	6	CF	Jakob Marsee	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIA	7	3B	Javier Sanoja	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	MIA	8	C	Joe Mack	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	9	DH	Agustín Ramírez	4	3	2	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.667
simulation	ARI	1	LF	Lars Nootbaar	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	ARI	2	2B	Ketel Marte	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	ARI	3	C	Gabriel Moreno	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	4	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	ARI	5	RF	Corbin Carroll	4	3	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0.333
simulation	ARI	6	3B	Nolan Arenado	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	ARI	7	1B	Tim Tawa	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	ARI	8	DH	Pavin Smith	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	ARI	9	CF	Jordan Lawlar	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIA	1	Sandy Alcantara	Starter	6.0	7	4	4	2	5	1	0	0	6.00	3.78	1.22
current	MIA	2	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.61	1.33
current	MIA	3	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.19	1.10
current	MIA	4	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.79	1.40
current	ARI	1	Corbin Burnes	Starter	3.0	5	3	3	0	9	2	0	0	9.00	0.00	1.33
current	ARI	2	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	2.1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.74	0.68
current	ARI	3	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	5.40	2.80	1.11
current	ARI	4	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	2.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	4.50	2.54	0.98
simulation	MIA	1	Sandy Alcantara	Starter	6.0	7	4	4	2	5	1	27	111	6.00	3.78	1.22
simulation	MIA	2	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	3.61	1.33
simulation	MIA	3	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	4.79	1.40
simulation	MIA	4	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	3.19	1.10
simulation	ARI	1	Corbin Burnes	Starter	3.0	5	3	3	0	9	2	14	61	9.00	0.00	1.33
simulation	ARI	2	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	2.1	0	0	0	2	0	0	9	37	0.00	1.74	0.68
simulation	ARI	3	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	2.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	8	31	4.50	2.54	0.98
simulation	ARI	4	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	1	6	24	5.40	2.80	1.11

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIA	Sandy Alcantara	Starter	6.0	4	7	2	5	27	111
MIA	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
MIA	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
MIA	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
ARI	Corbin Burnes	Starter	3.0	3	5	0	9	14	61
ARI	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	2.1	0	0	2	0	9	37
ARI	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	1	1	0	1	6	24
ARI	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	2.0	1	2	0	0	8	31

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260914_NYY@MIN

20260914_NYY@MIN.json • 2026-09-14

NYY 6 - MIN 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=3; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Ryan Jeffers: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Emmanuel Rodriguez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Victor Caratini: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Brooks Lee: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Walker Jenkins: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Cody Bellinger: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Aaron Judge: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; Spencer Jones: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; José Caballero: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Austin Wells: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match NYY pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=34 matches NYY BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match MIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match MIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match MIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=39 matches MIN BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.762 -> 0.658 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.761678, 'sample_size': 589, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5535, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.657589, 'published_confidence': 0.57, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.570.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.570.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.430.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.478/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 10, MIN 3.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 6 - MIN 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.57, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.57, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -9, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 11, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -7, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-07-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'NYY'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260703', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260703_MIN@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYY', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0048, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.8513, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2593, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_NYY@MIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@MIN.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0614, 'away_run_delta': -0.0614, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.018218855891145518}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.017578884062738005}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01756738266091541}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01728007942757887}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.016950295063921764}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04792493801450017, '1': 0.07717461395217054, '2': 0.10932151341119033, '3': 0.13622445171604072, '4': 0.14932164498786565, '5': 0.1439821738934817, '6': 0.12212735486603177, '7': 0.09112455890752127, '8': 0.05981032895801785, '9': 0.03453307141042158, '10': 0.017539309271584754, '11': 0.007836245423451555, '12': 0.003079795187722034}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.023494632798650068, '1': 0.03858956235304799, '2': 0.05800505990820048, '3': 0.07979152050721638, '4': 0.1004482644573889, '5': 0.11572387532285157, '6': 0.12201081693565617, '7': 0.11772495584392015, '8': 0.10395217305153392, '9': 0.08400273834375427, '10': 0.062122389125945, '11': 0.042043386546768216, '12': 0.026040065164109026, '13': 0.014759827357489378, '14': 0.007656236206044682, '15': 0.0036344960774235525}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.4161, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.968, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.2593}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0048, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.8513, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2593, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 6 - 4 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 6 - 4 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.570.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match NYY pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=34 matches NYY BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match MIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match MIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match MIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=39 matches MIN BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.762 -> 0.658 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.761678, 'sample_size': 589, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5535, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.657589, 'published_confidence': 0.57, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.570.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.570.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.430.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.478/0.657.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 10, MIN 3.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 6 - MIN 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.57, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.57, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -9, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 11, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -7, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-07-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'NYY'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260703', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'NYY', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260703_MIN@NYY.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYY', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0048, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.8513, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2593, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_NYY@MIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@MIN.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': 9.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 9.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0614, 'away_run_delta': -0.0614, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.018218855891145518}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.017578884062738005}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.01756738266091541}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01728007942757887}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.016950295063921764}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04792493801450017, '1': 0.07717461395217054, '2': 0.10932151341119033, '3': 0.13622445171604072, '4': 0.14932164498786565, '5': 0.1439821738934817, '6': 0.12212735486603177, '7': 0.09112455890752127, '8': 0.05981032895801785, '9': 0.03453307141042158, '10': 0.017539309271584754, '11': 0.007836245423451555, '12': 0.003079795187722034}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.023494632798650068, '1': 0.03858956235304799, '2': 0.05800505990820048, '3': 0.07979152050721638, '4': 0.1004482644573889, '5': 0.11572387532285157, '6': 0.12201081693565617, '7': 0.11772495584392015, '8': 0.10395217305153392, '9': 0.08400273834375427, '10': 0.062122389125945, '11': 0.042043386546768216, '12': 0.026040065164109026, '13': 0.014759827357489378, '14': 0.007656236206044682, '15': 0.0036344960774235525}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.4161, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.968, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.2593}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0048, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.8513, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.2593, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 6 - 4 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 6 - 4 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.570.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=3; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Ryan Jeffers: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Emmanuel Rodriguez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Victor Caratini: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Brooks Lee: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Walker Jenkins: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Cody Bellinger: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Aaron Judge: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; Spencer Jones: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; José Caballero: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Austin Wells: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.188749196898823	4.348259603279808		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6	4	0.570	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	3	0	6	10
MIN	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	4	3

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	NYY	batting	32	8	2	0	1	4	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	NYY	pitching		3			2		4	3	6					9.0	4	0	0
current	MIN	batting	33	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	MIN	pitching		10			3		6	2	8					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	NYY	batting	37	10	2	0	3	6	6	2	8	0	0
simulation	NYY	pitching		3			2		4	3	6					9.0	4	34	156
simulation	MIN	batting	30	3	1	0	2	4	4	3	6	0	1
simulation	MIN	pitching		10			3		6	2	8					9.0	6	39	169

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	NYY		DH	Ben Rice	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		LF	Cody Bellinger	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		RF	Aaron Judge	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		1B	Luis García Jr.	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	NYY		CF	Spencer Jones	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		SS	George Lombard Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYY		2B	José Caballero	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYY		C	Austin Wells	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	NYY		3B	Ryan McMahon	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		RF	Luke Keaschall	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	MIN		C	Ryan Jeffers	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		LF	Emmanuel Rodriguez	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		1B	Victor Caratini	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIN		3B	Brooks Lee	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		DH	Josh Bell	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		2B	Kody Clemens	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		CF	Walker Jenkins	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	MIN		SS	Ryan Kreidler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	NYY	1	DH	Ben Rice	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	2	LF	Cody Bellinger	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	NYY	3	RF	Aaron Judge	5	3	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0.333
simulation	NYY	4	1B	Luis García Jr.	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	5	CF	Spencer Jones	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	6	SS	George Lombard Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	7	3B	Ryan McMahon	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	NYY	8	C	Austin Wells	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	NYY	9	2B	José Caballero	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	1	RF	Luke Keaschall	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	MIN	2	3B	Brooks Lee	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	3	2B	Kody Clemens	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	4	C	Ryan Jeffers	4	4	2	1	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	MIN	5	DH	Josh Bell	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	6	LF	Emmanuel Rodriguez	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	7	1B	Victor Caratini	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	8	SS	Ryan Kreidler	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	9	CF	Walker Jenkins	3	2	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	NYY	1	Will Warren	Starter	5.1	2	3	3	2	4	2	0	0	5.06	4.05	1.36
current	NYY	2	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.94	1.18
current	NYY	3	David Bednar	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.66	1.03
current	NYY	4	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.67	1.07
current	NYY	5	Tim Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	13.50	4.23	1.07
current	MIN	1	Dean Kremer	Starter	4.2	6	3	3	1	5	3	0	0	5.79	5.65	1.30
current	MIN	2	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	4	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	20.25	2.01	0.97
current	MIN	3	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.01	1.35
current	MIN	4	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.65	1.35
current	MIN	5	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.92	1.39
simulation	NYY	1	Will Warren	Starter	5.1	2	3	3	2	4	2	21	93	5.06	4.05	1.36
simulation	NYY	2	David Bednar	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.66	1.03
simulation	NYY	3	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	22	0.00	1.94	1.18
simulation	NYY	4	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	1.67	1.07
simulation	NYY	5	Tim Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	1	1	1	0	4	15	13.50	4.23	1.07
simulation	MIN	1	Dean Kremer	Starter	4.2	6	3	3	1	5	3	21	93	5.79	5.65	1.30
simulation	MIN	2	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.92	1.39
simulation	MIN	3	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.65	1.35
simulation	MIN	4	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	4	3	3	1	1	0	9	37	20.25	2.01	0.97
simulation	MIN	5	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	4.01	1.35

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
NYY	Will Warren	Starter	5.1	3	2	2	4	21	93
NYY	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	22
NYY	David Bednar	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
NYY	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
NYY	Tim Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	1	1	4	15
MIN	Dean Kremer	Starter	4.2	3	6	1	5	21	93
MIN	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	3	4	1	1	9	37
MIN	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
MIN	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
MIN	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260914_SD@COL

20260914_SD@COL.json • 2026-09-14

SD 8 - COL 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=7, sim=8).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Hunter Goodman: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cole Carrigg: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Connor Norby: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Mickey Moniak: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Adael Amador: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=3, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ty France: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, 3B current=0 box=1; Luis Campusano: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Dustin Harris: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Jackson Merrill: 2B current=1 box=0, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match SD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match SD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match SD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=38 matches SD BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match COL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match COL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match COL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=40 matches COL BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 8.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.785 -> 0.677 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.784898, 'sample_size': 123, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5691, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.676999, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 13 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 13.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.449/0.624.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SD 11, COL 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SD 8 - COL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SD', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-04-23', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260729', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260729_COL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260728', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.57, 'artifact': '20260728_COL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SD', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 8 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 8 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0346, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.246, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.366, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_SD@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SD@COL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.2, 'home_run_delta': -0.0058, 'away_run_delta': 0.0058, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.014899277126143204}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.014726907194188755}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.014162563184426866}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.0140767302437853}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.014003755619103882}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03483272164995814, '1': 0.0566758196361497, '2': 0.08281737524696232, '3': 0.10868218653433698, '4': 0.1280880236543905, '5': 0.13557260300624807, '6': 0.1288690410881853, '7': 0.11001160776062027, '8': 0.08434156957906916, '9': 0.05807083870242589, '10': 0.035907715081269366, '11': 0.01994025440757192, '12': 0.009944589754547907, '13': 0.004454062441515815, '14': 0.001791591456748696}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.015173569479598543, '1': 0.025110442742288745, '2': 0.038605275827592066, '3': 0.0551397288833289, '4': 0.07316582434655869, '5': 0.090193988164464, '6': 0.1032934037451394, '7': 0.10989887924078988, '8': 0.10862745766937913, '9': 0.0997497105934547, '10': 0.08509603999302795, '11': 0.0674423560126162, '12': 0.04965715037617499, '13': 0.033966948338008195, '14': 0.021585243136480907, '15': 0.012743333124943152, '16': 0.006989318065582915, '17': 0.0035613302605717752}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.5436, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.036, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.366}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 8 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 8 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0346, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.246, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.366, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 175.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 175.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 8 - 5 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SD 8 - 5 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 8-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SD, simulation=SD, published=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SD wins 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 8-5, final 8-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 13.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 8-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match SD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match SD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match SD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=38 matches SD BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match COL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match COL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match COL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=40 matches COL BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 8.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.785 -> 0.677 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.784898, 'sample_size': 123, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5691, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.676999, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 13 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 13.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.449/0.624.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SD 11, COL 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SD 8 - COL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SD', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-04-23', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260729', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260729_COL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260728', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.57, 'artifact': '20260728_COL@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'SD', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 8 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 8 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0346, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.246, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.366, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_SD@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SD@COL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.2, 'home_run_delta': -0.0058, 'away_run_delta': 0.0058, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.014899277126143204}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.014726907194188755}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.014162563184426866}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.0140767302437853}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.014003755619103882}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03483272164995814, '1': 0.0566758196361497, '2': 0.08281737524696232, '3': 0.10868218653433698, '4': 0.1280880236543905, '5': 0.13557260300624807, '6': 0.1288690410881853, '7': 0.11001160776062027, '8': 0.08434156957906916, '9': 0.05807083870242589, '10': 0.035907715081269366, '11': 0.01994025440757192, '12': 0.009944589754547907, '13': 0.004454062441515815, '14': 0.001791591456748696}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.015173569479598543, '1': 0.025110442742288745, '2': 0.038605275827592066, '3': 0.0551397288833289, '4': 0.07316582434655869, '5': 0.090193988164464, '6': 0.1032934037451394, '7': 0.10989887924078988, '8': 0.10862745766937913, '9': 0.0997497105934547, '10': 0.08509603999302795, '11': 0.0674423560126162, '12': 0.04965715037617499, '13': 0.033966948338008195, '14': 0.021585243136480907, '15': 0.012743333124943152, '16': 0.006989318065582915, '17': 0.0035613302605717752}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.5436, 'recent_quality_edge': -1.036, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.366}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 8 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SD 8 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0346, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -1.246, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.366, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 175.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 175.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 8 - 5 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SD 8 - 5 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 8-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SD, simulation=SD, published=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SD wins 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 8-5, final 8-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 13.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 8-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=7, sim=8).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Hunter Goodman: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cole Carrigg: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Connor Norby: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Mickey Moniak: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Adael Amador: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=3, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ty France: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, 3B current=0 box=1; Luis Campusano: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Dustin Harris: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Jackson Merrill: 2B current=1 box=0, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.7871288500083375	3.6146686102632293		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	7	5	0.580	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	8	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	8	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	8	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	8	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	1	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	3	8	11
COL	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	5	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SD	batting	32	9	2	0	1	5	5	3	6	0	0	0	0
current	SD	pitching		9			1		5	1	11					9.0	5	0	0
current	COL	batting	34	9	2	0	1	5	4	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	COL	pitching		11			2		8	2	9					9.0	7	0	0
simulation	SD	batting	38	11	0	3	2	8	8	2	9	0	0
simulation	SD	pitching		9			1		5	1	11					9.0	5	38	156
simulation	COL	batting	36	9	2	0	1	5	5	1	11	0	1
simulation	COL	pitching		11			2		8	2	9					9.0	8	40	175

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	SD		1B	Ty France	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		DH	Luis Campusano	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	SD		3B	Manny Machado	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	SD		LF	Dustin Harris	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	SD		CF	Jackson Merrill	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		SS	Xander Bogaerts	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
current	SD		2B	Jake Cronenworth	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		C	Freddy Fermin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	COL		C	Hunter Goodman	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		CF	Cole Carrigg	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		2B	Connor Norby	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	COL		RF	Mickey Moniak	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		DH	Adael Amador	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	COL		LF	Jake McCarthy	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		1B	TJ Rumfield	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	COL		3B	Kyle Karros	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	SD	1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	5	5	3	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.600
simulation	SD	2	LF	Dustin Harris	5	5	2	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	SD	3	3B	Manny Machado	5	5	2	0	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	SD	4	1B	Ty France	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	SD	5	CF	Jackson Merrill	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SD	6	DH	Luis Campusano	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	SD	7	SS	Xander Bogaerts	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	SD	8	2B	Jake Cronenworth	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SD	9	C	Freddy Fermin	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	COL	1	LF	Jake McCarthy	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	COL	2	2B	Connor Norby	5	5	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	0.400
simulation	COL	3	C	Hunter Goodman	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	COL	4	1B	TJ Rumfield	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	COL	5	CF	Cole Carrigg	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	COL	6	3B	Kyle Karros	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	COL	7	RF	Mickey Moniak	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	COL	8	DH	Adael Amador	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	COL	9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SD	1	Casey Mize	Starter	5.0	3	3	3	0	4	1	0	0	5.40	3.70	1.11
current	SD	2	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.79	1.05
current	SD	3	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	1.76	0.98
current	SD	4	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	3	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	9.00	1.14	0.85
current	SD	5	Yuki Matsui	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.98	1.12
current	COL	1	Tomoyuki Sugano	Starter	4.2	6	4	3	1	5	1	0	0	5.79	5.30	1.34
current	COL	2	Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	1.1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	6.75	2.43	1.11
current	COL	3	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	3	3	0	0	1	0	0	27.00	4.54	1.49
current	COL	4	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	6.00	1.52
current	COL	5	Jordan Romano	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	4.40	1.29
simulation	SD	1	Casey Mize	Starter	5.0	3	3	3	0	4	1	19	82	5.40	3.70	1.11
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	3	1	1	1	2	0	7	26	9.00	1.14	0.85
simulation	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	2.79	1.05
simulation	SD	4	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	5	19	9.00	1.76	0.98
simulation	SD	5	Yuki Matsui	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	16	0.00	1.98	1.12
simulation	COL	1	Tomoyuki Sugano	Starter	4.2	6	4	4	1	5	1	21	93	7.71	5.30	1.34
simulation	COL	2	Jordan Romano	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	13	0.00	4.40	1.29
simulation	COL	3	Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	1.1	1	1	1	1	0	0	6	31	6.75	2.43	1.11
simulation	COL	4	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	6.00	1.52
simulation	COL	5	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	3	3	0	0	1	6	22	27.00	4.54	1.49

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SD	Casey Mize	Starter	5.0	3	3	0	4	19	82
SD	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
SD	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	19
SD	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	1	3	1	2	7	26
SD	Yuki Matsui	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	16
COL	Tomoyuki Sugano	Starter	4.2	4	6	1	5	21	93
COL	Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	1.1	1	1	1	0	6	31
COL	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	3	0	0	6	22
COL	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
COL	Jordan Romano	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	3	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260914_SEA@LAA

20260914_SEA@LAA.json • 2026-09-14

SEA 5 - LAA 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=3, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mike Trout: BB current=1 box=0; Jose Siri: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Vaughn Grissom: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Moore: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kyren Paris: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Travis d'Arnaud: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Denzer Guzman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dominic Canzone: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Randy Arozarena: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Michael Arroyo: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; J.P. Crawford: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Josh Naylor: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Cole Young: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match SEA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match SEA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=36 matches SEA BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match LAA pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=41 matches LAA BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.505 -> 0.532 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.505164, 'sample_size': 351, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5584, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.531782, 'published_confidence': 0.527588, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.472.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.528.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.528.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.526/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 9, LAA 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 5 - LAA 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAA; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'opponent_team': 'SEA', 'h2h_net_margin': -10, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-06-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-06-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'SEA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260702', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260702_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260630', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5445139999999999, 'artifact': '20260630_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260629', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5234, 'artifact': '20260629_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'output_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAA', 'final_score_winner': 'LAA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 6 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 6 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0359, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.326, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.25, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2584, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_SEA@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@LAA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -8.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 8.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0462, 'away_run_delta': 0.0462, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020001574651533068}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0199416814276376}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019711255707702324}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0196522318222368}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018057501745005384}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.040714125392377606, '1': 0.06593570818955725, '2': 0.09500354761266293, '3': 0.12178745451629738, '4': 0.13890211746773906, '5': 0.1409479493841365, '6': 0.1272483735056277, '7': 0.10220903795226853, '8': 0.07304154377036018, '9': 0.04644020940759696, '10': 0.0262701152245417, '11': 0.013221275911519859, '12': 0.005920090446837943, '13': 0.002358451218476238}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04233626659151929, '1': 0.06847425111783526, '2': 0.09827972780915432, '3': 0.12517641767954962, '4': 0.14148259350186768, '5': 0.14190752500429227, '6': 0.12630768021691424, '7': 0.09976449580785163, '8': 0.06992688543476762, '9': 0.04349449351562407, '10': 0.024007464242701997, '11': 0.011759266240570209, '12': 0.0051113553606130695, '13': 0.001971577476738934}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2596, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.256, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.2584}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 6 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 6 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0359, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.326, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.25, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2584, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 5 - 6 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 5 - 6 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAA wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAA, simulation=LAA, published=LAA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.528.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAA wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAA wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAA wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match SEA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match SEA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=36 matches SEA BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match LAA pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=41 matches LAA BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.505 -> 0.532 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.505164, 'sample_size': 351, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5584, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.531782, 'published_confidence': 0.527588, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.472.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.528.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.528.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.526/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 9, LAA 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 5 - LAA 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAA; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'opponent_team': 'SEA', 'h2h_net_margin': -10, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-06-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-06-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'SEA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260702', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260702_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260630', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5445139999999999, 'artifact': '20260630_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260629', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5234, 'artifact': '20260629_LAA@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'output_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAA', 'final_score_winner': 'LAA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 6 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 6 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0359, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.326, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.25, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2584, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_SEA@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@LAA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -8.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 8.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0462, 'away_run_delta': 0.0462, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020001574651533068}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0199416814276376}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.019711255707702324}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0196522318222368}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.018057501745005384}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.040714125392377606, '1': 0.06593570818955725, '2': 0.09500354761266293, '3': 0.12178745451629738, '4': 0.13890211746773906, '5': 0.1409479493841365, '6': 0.1272483735056277, '7': 0.10220903795226853, '8': 0.07304154377036018, '9': 0.04644020940759696, '10': 0.0262701152245417, '11': 0.013221275911519859, '12': 0.005920090446837943, '13': 0.002358451218476238}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04233626659151929, '1': 0.06847425111783526, '2': 0.09827972780915432, '3': 0.12517641767954962, '4': 0.14148259350186768, '5': 0.14190752500429227, '6': 0.12630768021691424, '7': 0.09976449580785163, '8': 0.06992688543476762, '9': 0.04349449351562407, '10': 0.024007464242701997, '11': 0.011759266240570209, '12': 0.0051113553606130695, '13': 0.001971577476738934}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2596, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.256, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.2584}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 6 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 6 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0359, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.326, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'LAA', 'model_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'LAA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.25, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.2584, 'winner': 'LAA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 5 - 6 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 5 - 6 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAA wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAA, simulation=LAA, published=LAA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.528.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAA wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAA wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAA wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=3, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mike Trout: BB current=1 box=0; Jose Siri: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Vaughn Grissom: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Moore: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kyren Paris: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Travis d'Arnaud: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Denzer Guzman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dominic Canzone: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Randy Arozarena: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Michael Arroyo: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; J.P. Crawford: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Josh Naylor: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Cole Young: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.4536830521619035	5.399490326136601		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	6	0.528	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	6		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	5	9
LAA	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	6	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SEA	batting	33	7	1	0	1	4	5	3	10	0	0	0	0
current	SEA	pitching		8			1		6	2	8					8.0	6	0	0
current	LAA	batting	33	7	1	0	1	4	3	3	10	0	0	0	0
current	LAA	pitching		9			1		5	4	11					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	SEA	batting	36	9	3	0	1	5	5	4	11	0	1
simulation	SEA	pitching		8			1		6	2	8					8.0	6	36	151
simulation	LAA	batting	32	8	0	0	1	6	6	2	8	0	2
simulation	LAA	pitching		9			1		5	4	11					9.0	5	41	173

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	SEA		RF	Dominic Canzone	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		C	Cal Raleigh	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0.250
current	SEA		LF	Randy Arozarena	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		DH	Michael Arroyo	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	SEA		CF	Julio Rodríguez	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		SS	J.P. Crawford	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		1B	Josh Naylor	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		2B	Cole Young	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SEA		3B	Weston Wilson	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	LAA		DH	Mike Trout	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		CF	Jose Siri	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		1B	Vaughn Grissom	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		2B	Christian Moore	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		LF	Kyren Paris	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	LAA		RF	Wade Meckler	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		C	Travis d'Arnaud	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	LAA		3B	Denzer Guzman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		SS	Zach Neto	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	1	SS	J.P. Crawford	5	4	2	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	SEA	2	LF	Randy Arozarena	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	3	RF	Dominic Canzone	5	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	2	1	0.333
simulation	SEA	4	C	Cal Raleigh	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	5	CF	Julio Rodríguez	5	5	3	1	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.600
simulation	SEA	6	1B	Josh Naylor	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	7	DH	Michael Arroyo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	8	2B	Cole Young	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	SEA	9	3B	Weston Wilson	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	LAA	1	SS	Zach Neto	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.667
simulation	LAA	2	DH	Mike Trout	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	3	CF	Jose Siri	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	LAA	4	1B	Vaughn Grissom	4	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	5	2B	Christian Moore	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	6	3B	Denzer Guzman	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	7	C	Travis d'Arnaud	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	8	LF	Kyren Paris	4	4	2	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	LAA	9	RF	Wade Meckler	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SEA	1	Kade Anderson	Starter	5.0	5	1	1	0	5	1	0	0	1.80	4.29	1.38
current	SEA	3	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	2.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.93	1.15
current	SEA	5	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	0.2	3	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	67.50	3.75	1.42
current	LAA	1	Reid Detmers	Starter	6.1	4	2	2	2	7	0	0	0	2.84	3.32	1.04
current	LAA	2	Ben Joyce	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.65	1.05
current	LAA	3	Ryan Watson	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	9.00	4.12	1.27
current	LAA	4	Tayler Saucedo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	27.00	3.06	1.08
simulation	SEA	1	Kade Anderson	Starter	5.0	5	1	1	0	5	1	22	90	1.80	4.29	1.38
simulation	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	2.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	7	36	0.00	3.93	1.15
simulation	SEA	3	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	0.2	3	5	5	2	1	0	7	25	67.50	3.75	1.42
simulation	LAA	1	Reid Detmers	Starter	6.1	4	2	2	2	7	0	26	112	2.84	3.32	1.04
simulation	LAA	2	Ben Joyce	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	20	0.00	3.65	1.05
simulation	LAA	3	Ryan Watson	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	1	5	20	9.00	4.12	1.27
simulation	LAA	4	Tayler Saucedo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	3	2	2	1	1	0	6	21	27.00	3.06	1.08

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SEA	Kade Anderson	Starter	5.0	1	5	0	5	22	90
SEA	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	2.1	0	0	0	2	7	36
SEA	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	0.2	5	3	2	1	7	25
LAA	Reid Detmers	Starter	6.1	2	4	2	7	26	112
LAA	Ben Joyce	Closer	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	20
LAA	Ryan Watson	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	2	5	20
LAA	Tayler Saucedo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	2	3	1	1	6	21

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260914_SF@STL

20260914_SF@STL.json • 2026-09-14

SF 4 - STL 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=40; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Eldridge: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Shay Whitcomb: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Turner Hill: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Scott Bandura: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0; Grant McCray: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jonah Cox: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Christian Koss: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0; Andrew Knizner: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=41; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Thomas Saggese: AB current=4 box=5, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Joshua Baez: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Iván Herrera: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Nolan Gorman: H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match STL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match STL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=42 matches STL BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match SF pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match SF pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match SF pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=46 matches SF BF=46.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.460 -> 0.509 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.4601, 'sample_size': 547, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5576, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.50885, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.525/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 10, STL 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 4 - STL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for STL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'STL', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-09-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-09-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SF'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260909', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.521009, 'artifact': '20260909_STL@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260908', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.526031, 'artifact': '20260908_STL@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260907', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.626764, 'artifact': '20260907_STL@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'STL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'STL', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'simulation_score_winner': 'STL', 'final_score_winner': 'STL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'STL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 5 STL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 5 STL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0357, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.238, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'STL', 'model_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'STL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'SF', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4205, 'winner': 'STL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_SF@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@STL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0205, 'away_run_delta': 0.0205, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02104729129886549}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020898194176320346}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020636238952138744}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02049005368752544}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.018953564147159006}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04382561869444227, '1': 0.07080354898301207, '2': 0.10128109601052032, '3': 0.12827681023957582, '4': 0.14385147062404283, '5': 0.1428324397169594, '6': 0.12556997188474345, '7': 0.09774423093758407, '8': 0.06736632637824316, '9': 0.041109386017082784, '10': 0.022211889804441668, '11': 0.010626161795275323, '12': 0.004501048914076931}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04558633724884025, '1': 0.0735449708240523, '2': 0.10476115423765613, '3': 0.13175787543176617, '4': 0.1463126599092809, '5': 0.1434551823670385, '6': 0.124187988257889, '7': 0.09492310935732229, '8': 0.06406094390217866, '9': 0.03817189538894327, '10': 0.020082747609440895, '11': 0.009328923879948922, '12': 0.0038262115856427365}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5867, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.112, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.4205}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 5 STL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 5 STL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0357, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.238, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'STL', 'model_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'STL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'SF', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4205, 'winner': 'STL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 206.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 206.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 4 - 5 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 4 - 5 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=STL, simulation=STL, published=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): STL wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match STL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match STL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=42 matches STL BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match SF pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match SF pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match SF pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=46 matches SF BF=46.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.460 -> 0.509 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.4601, 'sample_size': 547, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5576, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.50885, 'published_confidence': 0.505, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.495.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.505.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.525/0.713.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 10, STL 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 4 - STL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for STL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'STL', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-09-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-09-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SF'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260909', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.521009, 'artifact': '20260909_STL@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260908', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.526031, 'artifact': '20260908_STL@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260907', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'SF', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.626764, 'artifact': '20260907_STL@SF.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'STL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'STL', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'simulation_score_winner': 'STL', 'final_score_winner': 'STL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'STL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 5 STL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 5 STL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0357, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.238, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'STL', 'model_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'STL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'SF', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4205, 'winner': 'STL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260914_SF@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@STL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 3, 'sample_weight': 0.0409, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0205, 'away_run_delta': 0.0205, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02104729129886549}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020898194176320346}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020636238952138744}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02049005368752544}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.018953564147159006}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04382561869444227, '1': 0.07080354898301207, '2': 0.10128109601052032, '3': 0.12827681023957582, '4': 0.14385147062404283, '5': 0.1428324397169594, '6': 0.12556997188474345, '7': 0.09774423093758407, '8': 0.06736632637824316, '9': 0.041109386017082784, '10': 0.022211889804441668, '11': 0.010626161795275323, '12': 0.004501048914076931}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04558633724884025, '1': 0.0735449708240523, '2': 0.10476115423765613, '3': 0.13175787543176617, '4': 0.1463126599092809, '5': 0.1434551823670385, '6': 0.124187988257889, '7': 0.09492310935732229, '8': 0.06406094390217866, '9': 0.03817189538894327, '10': 0.020082747609440895, '11': 0.009328923879948922, '12': 0.0038262115856427365}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.85, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5867, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.112, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.4205}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 5 STL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 5 STL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0357, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.238, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'STL', 'model_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'STL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'SF', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4205, 'winner': 'STL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 206.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 206.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 11 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 4 - 5 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 4 - 5 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=STL, simulation=STL, published=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.505.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): STL wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=40; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Eldridge: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Shay Whitcomb: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Turner Hill: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Scott Bandura: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0; Grant McCray: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jonah Cox: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Christian Koss: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0; Andrew Knizner: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=41; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Thomas Saggese: AB current=4 box=5, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Joshua Baez: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Iván Herrera: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Nolan Gorman: H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.393094128418258	4.423234144672653		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.505	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
SF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	4	10
STL	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	1	5	11

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SF	batting	31	8	1	0	1	4	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		11			2		5	5	8					8.0	5	0	0
current	STL	batting	33	8	2	0	1	4	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		10			0		4	2	5					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	SF	batting	40	10	3	0	0	4	4	2	5	0	0
simulation	SF	pitching		11			2		5	5	8					10.0	5	46	206
simulation	STL	batting	41	11	3	0	2	5	5	5	8	0	0
simulation	STL	pitching		10			0		4	2	5					10.0	4	42	158

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	SF		1B	Bryce Eldridge	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	SF		2B	Shay Whitcomb	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	SF		DH	Turner Hill	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	SF		RF	Scott Bandura	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	SF		LF	Grant McCray	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SF		CF	Jonah Cox	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	SF		SS	Christian Koss	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	SF		C	Andrew Knizner	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SF		3B	Brett Harris	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	STL		2B	Thomas Saggese	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	STL		C	Leonardo Bernal	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	STL		LF	Joshua Baez	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	STL		1B	Alec Burleson	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	STL		RF	Jordan Walker	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	STL		DH	Iván Herrera	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	STL		3B	Nolan Gorman	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	STL		CF	Nathan Church	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	STL		SS	Masyn Winn	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	SF	1	CF	Jonah Cox	5	5	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	SF	2	1B	Bryce Eldridge	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	SF	3	2B	Shay Whitcomb	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.200
simulation	SF	4	DH	Turner Hill	5	4	2	0	0	1	2	1	0	0.500
simulation	SF	5	3B	Brett Harris	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	SF	6	RF	Scott Bandura	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	SF	7	C	Andrew Knizner	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SF	8	LF	Grant McCray	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	SF	9	SS	Christian Koss	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	STL	1	2B	Thomas Saggese	6	5	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.200
simulation	STL	2	DH	Iván Herrera	5	5	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	STL	3	1B	Alec Burleson	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	STL	4	RF	Jordan Walker	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	STL	5	C	Leonardo Bernal	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.200
simulation	STL	6	LF	Joshua Baez	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	STL	7	3B	Nolan Gorman	5	3	2	1	0	1	1	2	1	0.667
simulation	STL	8	SS	Masyn Winn	5	5	2	0	1	1	3	0	1	0.400
simulation	STL	9	CF	Nathan Church	5	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SF	1	Landen Roupp	Starter	5.1	4	1	1	3	3	1	0	0	1.69	4.00	1.28
current	SF	2	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	9.00	3.15	1.40
current	SF	3	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.65	1.18
current	SF	4	Jason Foley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.98	1.57
current	SF	5	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.0	3	1	1	0	2	0	0	0		5.40	1.68
current	SF	7	Joel Kuhnel	Reliever	0.0	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	0
current	STL	1	Quinn Mathews	Starter	5.0	5	2	2	0	4	0	0	0	3.60	4.11	1.50
current	STL	2	Justin Bruihl	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.59	1.33
current	STL	3	Riley O'Brien	Closer	2.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.20	1.27
current	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.12	1.32
current	STL	5	George Soriano	Setup Man	0.0	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	0		4.36	1.42
simulation	SF	1	Landen Roupp	Starter	5.1	4	1	1	3	3	1	23	103	1.69	4.00	1.28
simulation	SF	2	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	1	5	22	9.00	3.15	1.40
simulation	SF	3	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	29	0.00	2.65	1.18
simulation	SF	4	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	1	1	0	2	0	6	22	9.00	5.40	1.68
simulation	SF	5	Jason Foley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	3.98	1.57
simulation	SF	6	Joel Kuhnel	Reliever	0.1	2	2	2	1	1	0	4	14	54.00	4.85	1.51
simulation	STL	1	Quinn Mathews	Starter	5.0	5	2	2	0	4	0	20	78	3.60	4.11	1.50
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Closer	2.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	8	27	0.00	4.20	1.27
simulation	STL	3	George Soriano	Setup Man	0.2	2	2	2	1	0	0	5	18	27.00	4.36	1.42
simulation	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	19	0.00	4.12	1.32
simulation	STL	5	Justin Bruihl	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	3.59	1.33

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SF	Landen Roupp	Starter	5.1	1	4	3	3	23	103
SF	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	1	5	22
SF	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	29
SF	Jason Foley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
SF	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	3	0	2	6	22
SF	Joel Kuhnel	Reliever	0.1	2	2	1	1	4	14
STL	Quinn Mathews	Starter	5.0	2	5	0	4	20	78
STL	Justin Bruihl	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
STL	Riley O'Brien	Closer	2.1	0	0	1	1	8	27
STL	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	2	0	0	5	19
STL	George Soriano	Setup Man	0.2	2	2	1	0	5	18

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.