MLB JSON Audit Report

20260906_ARI@HOU

20260906_ARI@HOU.json • 2026-09-06

ARI 4 - HOU 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=10).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=7; 3B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gabriel Moreno: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Tommy Troy: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Ketel Marte: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; James McCann: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ildemaro Vargas: H current=1 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=40; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jeremy Peña: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nelson Velázquez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jose Altuve: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Christian Vázquez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Cam Smith: AB current=3 box=4; Daulton Varsho: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match HOU pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match HOU pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match HOU pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=39 matches HOU BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match ARI pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=43 matches ARI BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.556 -> 0.547 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.555629, 'sample_size': 549, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5392, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.547414, 'published_confidence': 0.537308, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.537.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.537.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.463.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.604/0.801.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 7, HOU 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 4 - HOU 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ARI.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5373082, 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'ARI', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5171479999999999, 'artifact': '20260905_ARI@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'ARI', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.582503, 'artifact': '20260904_ARI@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_ARI@HOU.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@HOU.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': 1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.5, 'home_run_delta': 0.0075, 'away_run_delta': -0.0075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.028871914434765344}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.028198256520021697}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.027142708651345313}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.026509397668387346}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.026288088806053843}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06419359666232854, '1': 0.1075559576660899, '2': 0.15053767519138006, '3': 0.17600455557306435, '4': 0.1718979050715665, '5': 0.14024430347910646, '6': 0.09558018057683522, '7': 0.05441497505141891, '8': 0.02587837447015402, '9': 0.010280719795607187, '10': 0.003411756462448997}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05039973941938097, '1': 0.08548060456898467, '2': 0.12409889470554318, '3': 0.15421594380310016, '4': 0.16404072235948355, '5': 0.14936027491141235, '6': 0.11640712676904204, '7': 0.07765779760668448, '8': 0.044345709105743786, '9': 0.021676001493892642, '10': 0.009069174850179907, '11': 0.0032480104065522974}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2657, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.42, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.0257}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ARI 4 - 3 HOU', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ARI 4 - 3 HOU', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1225, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.42, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'ARI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0257, 'winner': 'ARI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 4 - 3 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 4 - 3 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=ARI, simulation=ARI, published=ARI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.537.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ARI wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ARI wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match HOU pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match HOU pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match HOU pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=39 matches HOU BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match ARI pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=43 matches ARI BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.556 -> 0.547 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.555629, 'sample_size': 549, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5392, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.547414, 'published_confidence': 0.537308, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.537.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.537.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.463.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.604/0.801.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 7, HOU 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 4 - HOU 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ARI.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5373082, 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'ARI', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5171479999999999, 'artifact': '20260905_ARI@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'ARI', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.582503, 'artifact': '20260904_ARI@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_ARI@HOU.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@HOU.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': 1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.5, 'home_run_delta': 0.0075, 'away_run_delta': -0.0075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.028871914434765344}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.028198256520021697}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.027142708651345313}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.026509397668387346}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.026288088806053843}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06419359666232854, '1': 0.1075559576660899, '2': 0.15053767519138006, '3': 0.17600455557306435, '4': 0.1718979050715665, '5': 0.14024430347910646, '6': 0.09558018057683522, '7': 0.05441497505141891, '8': 0.02587837447015402, '9': 0.010280719795607187, '10': 0.003411756462448997}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05039973941938097, '1': 0.08548060456898467, '2': 0.12409889470554318, '3': 0.15421594380310016, '4': 0.16404072235948355, '5': 0.14936027491141235, '6': 0.11640712676904204, '7': 0.07765779760668448, '8': 0.044345709105743786, '9': 0.021676001493892642, '10': 0.009069174850179907, '11': 0.0032480104065522974}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.2657, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.42, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.0257}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ARI 4 - 3 HOU', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ARI 4 - 3 HOU', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.1225, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.42, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'ARI', 'model_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 5, 'published_winner': 'ARI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6, 'draw_majority_team': 'ARI', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0257, 'winner': 'ARI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 4 - 3 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 4 - 3 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=ARI, simulation=ARI, published=ARI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.537.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): ARI wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ARI wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=10).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=7; 3B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gabriel Moreno: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Tommy Troy: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Ketel Marte: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; Nolan Arenado: AB current=4 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; James McCann: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ildemaro Vargas: H current=1 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=40; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jeremy Peña: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nelson Velázquez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jose Altuve: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Christian Vázquez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Cam Smith: AB current=3 box=4; Daulton Varsho: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.533548062759611	4.340309890513969		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.537	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
ARI	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	4	7
HOU	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	3	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ARI	batting	36	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	6	0	0	0	0
current	ARI	pitching		7			2		3	2	7					9.0	3	0	0
current	HOU	batting	34	7	1	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	HOU	pitching		7			0		4	2	10					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	ARI	batting	37	7	1	2	0	4	4	2	10	0	0
simulation	ARI	pitching		10			2		3	2	7					10.0	3	43	176
simulation	HOU	batting	40	10	3	0	2	3	3	2	7	0	1
simulation	HOU	pitching		7			0		4	2	10					10.0	4	39	173

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	ARI		DH	Gabriel Moreno	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		RF	Corbin Carroll	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.200
current	ARI		LF	Tommy Troy	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	ARI		2B	Ketel Marte	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.200
current	ARI		3B	Nolan Arenado	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		C	James McCann	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		1B	Ildemaro Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		CF	Jordan Lawlar	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	HOU		SS	Jeremy Peña	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	HOU		3B	Isaac Paredes	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	HOU		LF	Nelson Velázquez	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.000
current	HOU		2B	Jose Altuve	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		DH	Yordan Alvarez	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		C	Christian Vázquez	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	HOU		RF	Cam Smith	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	HOU		CF	Daulton Varsho	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		1B	Christian Walker	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	1	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	2	2B	Ketel Marte	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	ARI	3	DH	Gabriel Moreno	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	ARI	4	3B	Nolan Arenado	4	3	1	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	ARI	5	RF	Corbin Carroll	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	6	LF	Tommy Troy	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	7	C	James McCann	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	8	1B	Ildemaro Vargas	4	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	ARI	9	CF	Jordan Lawlar	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	1	SS	Jeremy Peña	5	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	HOU	2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	HOU	3	3B	Isaac Paredes	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	4	2B	Jose Altuve	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	HOU	5	1B	Christian Walker	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	HOU	6	LF	Nelson Velázquez	5	4	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	HOU	7	CF	Daulton Varsho	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	HOU	8	RF	Cam Smith	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	9	C	Christian Vázquez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ARI	1	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.0	6	2	2	1	5	1	0	0	3.00	2.59	1.22
current	ARI	2	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.74	0.68
current	ARI	3	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	9.00	2.80	1.11
current	ARI	4	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	0.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0		2.54	0.98
current	HOU	1	Peter Lambert	Starter	5.1	2	2	2	1	6	0	0	0	3.38	3.66	1.24
current	HOU	2	AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	6.75	3.07	1.17
current	HOU	3	Bryan Abreu	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.76	1.35
current	HOU	4	Josh Hader	Closer	1.1	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	6.75	0.46	0.56
current	HOU	5	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		4.32	1.18
simulation	ARI	1	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.0	6	1	1	1	5	1	26	109	1.50	2.59	1.22
simulation	ARI	2	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	25	0.00	1.74	0.68
simulation	ARI	3	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.54	0.98
simulation	ARI	4	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	4	2	2	1	1	1	8	29	18.00	2.80	1.11
simulation	HOU	1	Peter Lambert	Starter	5.1	2	2	2	1	6	0	19	89	3.38	3.66	1.24
simulation	HOU	2	Josh Hader	Closer	1.2	2	1	1	1	0	0	8	37	5.40	0.46	0.56
simulation	HOU	3	Bryan Abreu	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	16	0.00	3.76	1.35
simulation	HOU	4	AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	1	1	0	2	0	6	23	6.75	3.07	1.17
simulation	HOU	5	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.00	4.32	1.18

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ARI	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.0	1	6	1	5	26	109
ARI	Brandyn Garcia	Closer	2.0	0	0	0	0	6	25
ARI	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	4	1	1	8	29
ARI	Juan Morillo	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
HOU	Peter Lambert	Starter	5.1	2	2	1	6	19	89
HOU	AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	2	0	2	6	23
HOU	Bryan Abreu	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	16
HOU	Josh Hader	Closer	1.2	1	2	1	0	8	37
HOU	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260906_ATL@PHI

20260906_ATL@PHI.json • 2026-09-06

ATL 3 - PHI 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 99INFO 9

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=9; HR: current=1, sim=2).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; HR: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Michael Harris II: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Sean Murphy: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=3, sim=4).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Luis Arraez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=2 box=1; Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Garrett Stubbs: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match PHI pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match PHI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=37 matches PHI BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match ATL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=38 matches ATL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.577 -> 0.559 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.577032, 'sample_size': 544, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5404, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.558716, 'published_confidence': 0.550646, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.449.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.551.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.551.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.738/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 6, PHI 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 3 - PHI 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for PHI.	{'winner_confidence': 0.55064555, 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.537979, 'artifact': '20260905_ATL@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5599339999999999, 'artifact': '20260904_ATL@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_ATL@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@PHI.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0231, 'away_run_delta': 0.0231, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028957142613702566}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.027859783321793688}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02688530464753125}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.026812727793098092}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025866459685362622}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0479764458206497, '1': 0.08154721319583656, '2': 0.11916116145378729, '3': 0.1496941685205313, '4': 0.1616663332331467, '5': 0.15009936160502618, '6': 0.11980712683473858, '7': 0.08221120472907568, '8': 0.04849801045152774, '9': 0.02459582442639021, '10': 0.010723668910392517, '11': 0.00401948081889757}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0666028398499898, '1': 0.11135338341421486, '2': 0.15485237618240072, '3': 0.17911671548795566, '4': 0.17232891205379028, '5': 0.13790625409372026, '6': 0.09179384553694657, '7': 0.05082143841210047, '8': 0.02340367873493614, '9': 0.008964479725099943, '10': 0.002856076508845366}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.6338, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.06, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.391}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.101, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.01, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.25, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.391, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 3 - 4 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 3 - 4 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PHI, simulation=PHI, published=PHI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.551.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match PHI pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match PHI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=37 matches PHI BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match ATL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=38 matches ATL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.577 -> 0.559 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.577032, 'sample_size': 544, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5404, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.558716, 'published_confidence': 0.550646, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.449.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.551.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.551.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.738/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 6, PHI 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 3 - PHI 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for PHI.	{'winner_confidence': 0.55064555, 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.537979, 'artifact': '20260905_ATL@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'PHI', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5599339999999999, 'artifact': '20260904_ATL@PHI.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_ATL@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@PHI.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.8, 'home_run_delta': -0.0231, 'away_run_delta': 0.0231, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028957142613702566}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.027859783321793688}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02688530464753125}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.026812727793098092}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025866459685362622}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0479764458206497, '1': 0.08154721319583656, '2': 0.11916116145378729, '3': 0.1496941685205313, '4': 0.1616663332331467, '5': 0.15009936160502618, '6': 0.11980712683473858, '7': 0.08221120472907568, '8': 0.04849801045152774, '9': 0.02459582442639021, '10': 0.010723668910392517, '11': 0.00401948081889757}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0666028398499898, '1': 0.11135338341421486, '2': 0.15485237618240072, '3': 0.17911671548795566, '4': 0.17232891205379028, '5': 0.13790625409372026, '6': 0.09179384553694657, '7': 0.05082143841210047, '8': 0.02340367873493614, '9': 0.008964479725099943, '10': 0.002856076508845366}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.6338, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.06, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.391}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.101, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.01, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 4, 'published_winner': 'PHI', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.25, 'draw_majority_team': 'ATL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.391, 'winner': 'PHI', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 3 - 4 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 3 - 4 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PHI, simulation=PHI, published=PHI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.551.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=9; HR: current=1, sim=2).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; HR: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Michael Harris II: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Sean Murphy: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=3, sim=4).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Luis Arraez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=2 box=1; Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Garrett Stubbs: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.4394282720734966	4.494045882682021		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.551	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	6
PHI	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	4	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ATL	batting	36	9	2	0	2	5	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		6			1		4	1	7					8.0	4	0	0
current	PHI	batting	36	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	PHI	pitching		6			0		3	3	5					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	ATL	batting	33	6	2	0	0	3	3	4	5	0	0
simulation	ATL	pitching		9			2		4	1	7					9.0	4	38	156
simulation	PHI	batting	36	9	1	0	2	4	4	1	7	0	1
simulation	PHI	pitching		6			0		3	4	5					9.0	3	37	147

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	ATL		DH	Drake Baldwin	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		SS	Mauricio Dubón	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	ATL		CF	Michael Harris II	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	ATL		C	Sean Murphy	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		LF	Mike Yastrzemski	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	PHI		RF	Bryce Harper	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		1B	Alec Bohm	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		3B	Bryson Stott	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		LF	Brandon Marsh	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		2B	Luis Arraez	0	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.400
current	PHI		DH	Kyle Schwarber	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		SS	Trea Turner	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	PHI		C	Garrett Stubbs	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	PHI		CF	Justin Crawford	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	1	DH	Drake Baldwin	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	2	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	3	1B	Matt Olson	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	4	CF	Michael Harris II	4	3	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	1.000
simulation	ATL	5	SS	Mauricio Dubón	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	6	2B	Ozzie Albies	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	7	C	Sean Murphy	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	8	3B	Austin Riley	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	9	LF	Mike Yastrzemski	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	1	DH	Kyle Schwarber	5	5	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	PHI	2	SS	Trea Turner	5	4	2	0	1	1	3	0	1	1	0.500
simulation	PHI	3	RF	Bryce Harper	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	PHI	4	2B	Luis Arraez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	5	1B	Alec Bohm	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	6	3B	Bryson Stott	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	7	LF	Brandon Marsh	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	PHI	8	CF	Justin Crawford	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	9	C	Garrett Stubbs	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ATL	1	Tyler Mahle	Starter	5.2	5	2	2	0	4	1	0	0	3.18	4.25	1.29
current	ATL	2	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	6.75	2.30	1.09
current	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	9.00	2.36	0.84
current	PHI	1	Aaron Nola	Starter	5.1	5	3	3	2	1	0	0	0	5.06	4.93	1.40
current	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.23	0.97
current	PHI	3	Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.06	0.98
current	PHI	4	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.12	1.30
current	PHI	5	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.20	1.08
simulation	ATL	1	Tyler Mahle	Starter	5.2	9	4	4	0	4	2	29	110	6.35	4.25	1.29
simulation	ATL	2	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	17	0.00	2.36	0.84
simulation	ATL	3	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	29	0.00	2.30	1.09
simulation	PHI	1	Aaron Nola	Starter	5.1	5	3	3	2	1	0	23	90	5.06	4.93	1.40
simulation	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	1.23	0.97
simulation	PHI	3	Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	19	0.00	3.06	0.98
simulation	PHI	4	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	4.12	1.30
simulation	PHI	5	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	12	0.00	2.20	1.08

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ATL	Tyler Mahle	Starter	5.2	4	9	0	4	29	110
ATL	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.1	0	0	0	1	5	29
ATL	Dylan Lee	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	17
PHI	Aaron Nola	Starter	5.1	3	5	2	1	23	90
PHI	Jhoan Duran	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
PHI	Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	19
PHI	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
PHI	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	1	0	3	12

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260906_BOS@BAL

20260906_BOS@BAL.json • 2026-09-06

BOS 4 - BAL 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=0).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Blaze Alexander: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Coby Mayo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Rece Hinds: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: AB current=3 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Carlos Narváez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Roman Anthony: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Nick Sogard: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Trevor Story: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Andruw Monasterio: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Caleb Durbin: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Eli White: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match BOS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match BOS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match BOS pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=37 matches BOS BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match BAL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match BAL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=35 matches BAL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.588 -> 0.576 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.588311, 'sample_size': 309, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5631, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.575705, 'published_confidence': 0.54926, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.549.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.549.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.451.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.559/0.749.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 6, BAL 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 4 - BAL 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.56, reasons=a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'opponent_team': 'BAL', 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-09-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'BOS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'BOS', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.532306, 'artifact': '20260905_BOS@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'BOS', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260904_BOS@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260903', 'away': 'BOS', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260903_BOS@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260722', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260722_BAL@BOS_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260720', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260720_BAL@BOS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BOS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'BOS', 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 3 BAL', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 3 BAL', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.066, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.178, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5547, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_BOS@BAL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@BAL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.2, 'home_run_delta': -0.0346, 'away_run_delta': 0.0346, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03049882763497128}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029129052452760776}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0287373179746779}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.027446656397907335}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.027210678132968128}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07010185136419053, '1': 0.11685465654776503, '2': 0.16105643300879477, '3': 0.18353785288441607, '4': 0.17293732407868945, '5': 0.1347309400618435, '6': 0.08678835619498913, '7': 0.04622438086691652, '8': 0.020356178968549382, '9': 0.007412026023845708}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0529330522558248, '1': 0.08957471396449936, '2': 0.12916455573688773, '3': 0.1587086913951475, '4': 0.1661718667602485, '5': 0.14825649153749335, '6': 0.11271179593391718, '7': 0.07301707860879525, '8': 0.04030686008757087, '9': 0.0189597634434977, '10': 0.007599522283326319, '11': 0.002595607992791581}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8706, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.032, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.5547}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 3 BAL', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 3 BAL', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.066, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.178, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5547, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 4 - 3 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 4 - 3 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=BOS, simulation=BOS, published=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.549.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match BOS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match BOS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match BOS pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=37 matches BOS BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match BAL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match BAL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=35 matches BAL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.588 -> 0.576 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.588311, 'sample_size': 309, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5631, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.575705, 'published_confidence': 0.54926, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.549.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.549.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.451.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.559/0.749.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 6, BAL 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 4 - BAL 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.56, reasons=a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'opponent_team': 'BAL', 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-09-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'BOS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'BOS', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.532306, 'artifact': '20260905_BOS@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'BOS', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260904_BOS@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260903', 'away': 'BOS', 'home': 'BAL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260903_BOS@BAL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260722', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260722_BAL@BOS_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260720', 'away': 'BAL', 'home': 'BOS', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260720_BAL@BOS.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BOS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'BOS', 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 3 BAL', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 3 BAL', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.066, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.178, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5547, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_BOS@BAL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@BAL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.2, 'home_run_delta': -0.0346, 'away_run_delta': 0.0346, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03049882763497128}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029129052452760776}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0287373179746779}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.027446656397907335}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.027210678132968128}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.07010185136419053, '1': 0.11685465654776503, '2': 0.16105643300879477, '3': 0.18353785288441607, '4': 0.17293732407868945, '5': 0.1347309400618435, '6': 0.08678835619498913, '7': 0.04622438086691652, '8': 0.020356178968549382, '9': 0.007412026023845708}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.0529330522558248, '1': 0.08957471396449936, '2': 0.12916455573688773, '3': 0.1587086913951475, '4': 0.1661718667602485, '5': 0.14825649153749335, '6': 0.11271179593391718, '7': 0.07301707860879525, '8': 0.04030686008757087, '9': 0.0189597634434977, '10': 0.007599522283326319, '11': 0.002595607992791581}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8706, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.032, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.5547}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 3 BAL', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 3 BAL', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.066, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.178, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'BOS', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5547, 'winner': 'BOS', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 4 - 3 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 4 - 3 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=BOS, simulation=BOS, published=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.549.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=0).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Blaze Alexander: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Coby Mayo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Rece Hinds: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: AB current=3 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Carlos Narváez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mickey Gasper: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Roman Anthony: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Nick Sogard: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Adley Rutschman: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Trevor Story: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Andruw Monasterio: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Caleb Durbin: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Eli White: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.796294807313172	3.267528547616254		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	3		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.549	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	4	6
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	BOS	batting	35	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	BOS	pitching		10			0		3	0	8					9.0	3	0	0
current	BAL	batting	33	7	1	0	1	4	4	3	11	0	0	0	0
current	BAL	pitching		6			0		4	2	5					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	BOS	batting	33	6	4	0	0	4	4	2	5	0	0
simulation	BOS	pitching		10			0		3	0	8					9.0	3	37	135
simulation	BAL	batting	37	10	4	1	0	3	3	0	8	0	0
simulation	BAL	pitching		6			0		4	2	5					9.0	4	35	141

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	BOS		1B	Mickey Gasper	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		RF	Roman Anthony	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	BOS		2B	Nick Sogard	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	BOS		C	Adley Rutschman	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	BOS		SS	Trevor Story	0	5	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.200
current	BOS		DH	Andruw Monasterio	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	BOS		3B	Caleb Durbin	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	BOS		CF	Eli White	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	BOS		LF	Jarren Duran	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	BAL		2B	Blaze Alexander	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		DH	Coby Mayo	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		LF	Rece Hinds	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0.000
current	BAL		RF	Leody Taveras	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		C	Carlos Narváez	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	BAL		3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0	5	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.200
current	BAL		1B	Pete Alonso	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	0.200
current	BAL		SS	Gunnar Henderson	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.200
current	BAL		CF	Colton Cowser	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	BOS	1	RF	Roman Anthony	4	3	1	1	0	0	1	2	1	1	0.333
simulation	BOS	2	1B	Mickey Gasper	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	BOS	3	C	Adley Rutschman	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	4	SS	Trevor Story	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	5	2B	Nick Sogard	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	6	3B	Caleb Durbin	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	7	LF	Jarren Duran	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	BOS	8	DH	Andruw Monasterio	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	BOS	9	CF	Eli White	3	3	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	BAL	1	2B	Blaze Alexander	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.200
simulation	BAL	2	1B	Pete Alonso	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	BAL	3	DH	Coby Mayo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	4	3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	BAL	5	SS	Gunnar Henderson	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	BAL	6	LF	Rece Hinds	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	BAL	7	RF	Leody Taveras	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	8	C	Carlos Narváez	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	BAL	9	CF	Colton Cowser	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	BOS	1	Payton Tolle	Starter	6.0	4	0	0	0	7	0	0	0.00	3.23	1.10
current	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.51	1.05
current	BOS	3	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.00	2.00	1.22
current	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	0	0	18.00	1.91	0.85
current	BAL	1	Kyle Bradish	Starter	5.1	4	3	3	2	5	0	0	5.06	4.01	1.42
current	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	2.1	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	3.86	3.27	1.39
current	BAL	4	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.55	0.90
current	BAL	5	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.42	0.90
simulation	BOS	1	Payton Tolle	Starter	6.0	4	0	0	0	7	22	88	0.00	3.23	1.10
simulation	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	1.51	1.05
simulation	BOS	3	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	6	12	9.00	2.00	1.22
simulation	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	6	22	18.00	1.91	0.85
simulation	BAL	1	Kyle Bradish	Starter	5.1	4	3	3	2	5	22	90	5.06	4.01	1.42
simulation	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	2.1	2	1	1	0	0	9	35	3.86	3.27	1.39
simulation	BAL	3	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.00	2.55	0.90
simulation	BAL	4	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.00	2.42	0.90

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
BOS	Payton Tolle	Starter	6.0	0	4	0	7	22	88
BOS	Aroldis Chapman	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
BOS	Erik Miller	Setup Man	1.0	1	3	0	0	6	12
BOS	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	3	0	1	6	22
BAL	Kyle Bradish	Starter	5.1	3	4	2	5	22	90
BAL	Andrew Kittredge	Closer	2.1	1	2	0	0	9	35
BAL	Rico Garcia	Setup Man	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8
BAL	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260906_CHC@MIA

20260906_CHC@MIA.json • 2026-09-06

CHC 6 - MIA 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=9; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Michael Busch: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=5 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Nico Hoerner: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Alex Bregman: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=6 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Carson Kelly: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=5, sim=4).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Griffin Conine: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Owen Caissie: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Joe Mack: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Heriberto Hernández: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Graham Pauley: RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match MIA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match MIA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match MIA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=37 matches MIA BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match CHC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match CHC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match CHC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=34 matches CHC BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.774 -> 0.663 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.773853, 'sample_size': 344, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5523, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.663076, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.738/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 4, MIA 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 6 - MIA 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.73953, 'artifact': '20260905_CHC@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.724519, 'artifact': '20260904_CHC@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.079, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.858, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8414, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_CHC@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@MIA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': -6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': -3.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.045, 'away_run_delta': 0.045, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.021766586632662708}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.021024307724686348}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020790798934524665}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.02058140427980012}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020081796104199533}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05474113925362568, '1': 0.09248557805913257, '2': 0.1327201955633914, '3': 0.16177180242382172, '4': 0.16748327689503706, '5': 0.1472796991795472, '6': 0.11000619450331371, '7': 0.06979016220557906, '8': 0.03760746742703789, '9': 0.01721300845674238, '10': 0.0066917897907427856, '11': 0.0022096862420288264}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.02141838948308177, '1': 0.0373145621491996, '2': 0.05871315400007526, '3': 0.08343686814699833, '4': 0.10708930505549426, '5': 0.1241365664677937, '6': 0.12996274634812632, '7': 0.12288632430268624, '8': 0.10494306654249931, '9': 0.08094116848502107, '10': 0.05638332865737556, '11': 0.03547296380042778, '12': 0.020156251222079594, '13': 0.010343977618786143, '14': 0.004794362903629624, '15': 0.002006964816725348}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.021, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.508, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.8414}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.079, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.858, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8414, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 161.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 161.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 6 - 4 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 6 - 4 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match MIA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match MIA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match MIA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=37 matches MIA BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match CHC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match CHC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match CHC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=34 matches CHC BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.774 -> 0.663 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.773853, 'sample_size': 344, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5523, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.663076, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.738/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 4, MIA 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 6 - MIA 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.73953, 'artifact': '20260905_CHC@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'MIA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.724519, 'artifact': '20260904_CHC@MIA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.079, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.858, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8414, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_CHC@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@MIA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': -6.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 6.0, 'home_average_margin': -3.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.045, 'away_run_delta': 0.045, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.021766586632662708}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.021024307724686348}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020790798934524665}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.02058140427980012}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020081796104199533}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.05474113925362568, '1': 0.09248557805913257, '2': 0.1327201955633914, '3': 0.16177180242382172, '4': 0.16748327689503706, '5': 0.1472796991795472, '6': 0.11000619450331371, '7': 0.06979016220557906, '8': 0.03760746742703789, '9': 0.01721300845674238, '10': 0.0066917897907427856, '11': 0.0022096862420288264}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.02141838948308177, '1': 0.0373145621491996, '2': 0.05871315400007526, '3': 0.08343686814699833, '4': 0.10708930505549426, '5': 0.1241365664677937, '6': 0.12996274634812632, '7': 0.12288632430268624, '8': 0.10494306654249931, '9': 0.08094116848502107, '10': 0.05638332865737556, '11': 0.03547296380042778, '12': 0.020156251222079594, '13': 0.010343977618786143, '14': 0.004794362903629624, '15': 0.002006964816725348}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.021, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.508, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.8414}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.079, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.858, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'CHC', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.8414, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 161.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 161.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 6 - 4 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 6 - 4 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=9; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Michael Busch: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=5 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Nico Hoerner: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Alex Bregman: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=6 box=5, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Carson Kelly: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=5, sim=4).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Griffin Conine: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Owen Caissie: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Joe Mack: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Heriberto Hernández: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Graham Pauley: RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.165181276650572	3.689481570177319		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6	4	0.580	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	2	0	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	6	4
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	4	4

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHC	batting	37	9	2	0	2	6	6	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	CHC	pitching		4			2		4	3	7					9.0	4	0	0
current	MIA	batting	31	8	2	0	1	4	5	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIA	pitching		5			3		6	6	9					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	CHC	batting	30	4	0	0	3	6	6	6	9	1	0
simulation	CHC	pitching		4			2		4	3	7					9.0	4	34	145
simulation	MIA	batting	31	4	0	0	2	4	4	3	7	0	0
simulation	MIA	pitching		4			3		6	6	9					9.0	6	37	161

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	CHC		1B	Michael Busch	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		RF	Seiya Suzuki	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	CHC		SS	Nico Hoerner	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	CHC		3B	Alex Bregman	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHC		CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0	6	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.167
current	CHC		LF	Ian Happ	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		2B	Pedro Ramirez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHC		C	Carson Kelly	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHC		DH	Michael Conforto	0	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		DH	Kyle Stowers	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	2	0.250
current	MIA		1B	Griffin Conine	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
current	MIA		RF	Owen Caissie	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		C	Joe Mack	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		LF	Heriberto Hernández	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		2B	Javier Sanoja	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIA		CF	Jakob Marsee	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	MIA		3B	Graham Pauley	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.000
current	MIA		SS	Otto Lopez	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHC	1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	5	5	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	4	2	1	0	1	1	2	2	1	0.500
simulation	CHC	3	1B	Michael Busch	4	3	2	0	2	1	3	1	1	0.667
simulation	CHC	4	3B	Alex Bregman	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	5	LF	Ian Happ	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	6	SS	Nico Hoerner	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	7	2B	Pedro Ramirez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	CHC	8	DH	Michael Conforto	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	9	C	Carson Kelly	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIA	1	DH	Kyle Stowers	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	MIA	2	1B	Griffin Conine	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	MIA	3	RF	Owen Caissie	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIA	4	CF	Jakob Marsee	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIA	5	LF	Heriberto Hernández	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	MIA	6	C	Joe Mack	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	7	SS	Otto Lopez	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	8	3B	Graham Pauley	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	MIA	9	2B	Javier Sanoja	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHC	1	Clay Holmes	Starter	6.0	2	2	2	3	7	1	0	0	3.00	2.09	1.07
current	CHC	2	Colin Rea	Setup Man	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6.75	4.45	1.35
current	CHC	3	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.15	1.23
current	CHC	4	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	13.50	3.35	1.20
current	MIA	1	Tyler Phillips	Starter	5.0	3	4	4	5	3	2	0	0	7.20	3.43	1.33
current	MIA	2	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	9.00	3.73	1.33
current	MIA	3	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	3.30	1.13
current	MIA	4	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.36	1.36
current	MIA	5	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.47	1.51
simulation	CHC	1	Clay Holmes	Starter	6.0	2	2	2	3	7	1	23	101	3.00	2.09	1.07
simulation	CHC	2	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	3.15	1.23
simulation	CHC	3	Colin Rea	Setup Man	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	0	5	20	6.75	4.45	1.35
simulation	CHC	4	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	1	3	11	13.50	3.35	1.20
simulation	MIA	1	Tyler Phillips	Starter	5.0	3	4	4	5	3	2	23	102	7.20	3.43	1.33
simulation	MIA	2	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.0	0	1	1	0	2	0	3	13	9.00	3.73	1.33
simulation	MIA	3	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	4.36	1.36
simulation	MIA	4	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	4	16	9.00	3.30	1.13
simulation	MIA	5	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	17	0.00	4.47	1.51

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHC	Clay Holmes	Starter	6.0	2	2	3	7	23	101
CHC	Colin Rea	Setup Man	1.1	1	1	0	0	5	20
CHC	Jacob Webb	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
CHC	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	1	1	0	0	3	11
MIA	Tyler Phillips	Starter	5.0	4	3	5	3	23	102
MIA	Calvin Faucher	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	2	3	13
MIA	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16
MIA	Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
MIA	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260906_DET@CLE

20260906_DET@CLE.json • 2026-09-06

DET 3 - CLE 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=28; H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=4; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Angel Martínez: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Nathaniel Lowe: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jo Adell: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Patrick Bailey: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Angel Genao: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Petey Halpin: SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Riley Greene: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kevin McGonigle: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Ben Malgeri: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brett Callahan: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=4; Max Clark: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Dillon Dingler: AB current=5 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match DET pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match DET pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match DET pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=30 matches DET BF=30.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match CLE pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match CLE pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=33 matches CLE BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.533 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 445, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5551, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5326, 'published_confidence': 0.520296, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.480.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.520.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.520.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.559/0.749.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 4, CLE 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 3 - CLE 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.554417, 'artifact': '20260905_DET@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525093, 'artifact': '20260904_DET@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.554402, 'artifact': '20260904_DET@CLE_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260813', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260813_CLE@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260812', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260812_CLE@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'DET', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'DET', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0054, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.434, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1296, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_DET@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@CLE.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0288, 'away_run_delta': 0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.030936128617954393}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.030507664113324832}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.029943436422015687}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.029528720676167006}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.026630592655158502}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0626441784771651, '1': 0.10510489782640324, '2': 0.1477175544276576, '3': 0.17390344366021562, '4': 0.17149488589394085, '5': 0.14166451645902767, '6': 0.09802523949779862, '7': 0.0568174396054204, '8': 0.027586228193830116, '9': 0.011219407136399588, '10': 0.003822208822141005}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06563779918418954, '1': 0.10983431833146057, '2': 0.15313436062365254, '3': 0.1778925590363783, '4': 0.1721842638178069, '5': 0.1388608041752596, '6': 0.09330747484841251, '7': 0.052240068680469924, '8': 0.024369217521464905, '9': 0.009471744451723853, '10': 0.003067389329181165}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3954, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.364, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1296}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0054, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.434, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1296, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 130.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 130.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 3 - 4 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 3 - 4 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.520.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match DET pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match DET pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match DET pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=30 matches DET BF=30.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match CLE pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match CLE pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=33 matches CLE BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.533 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 445, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5551, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5326, 'published_confidence': 0.520296, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.480.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.520.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.520.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.559/0.749.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 4, CLE 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 3 - CLE 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.554417, 'artifact': '20260905_DET@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.525093, 'artifact': '20260904_DET@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'DET', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 2, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.554402, 'artifact': '20260904_DET@CLE_2.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260813', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260813_CLE@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260812', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'DET', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.58, 'artifact': '20260812_CLE@DET.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'DET', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'DET', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0054, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.434, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1296, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_DET@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@CLE.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0288, 'away_run_delta': 0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.030936128617954393}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.030507664113324832}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.029943436422015687}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.029528720676167006}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.026630592655158502}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0626441784771651, '1': 0.10510489782640324, '2': 0.1477175544276576, '3': 0.17390344366021562, '4': 0.17149488589394085, '5': 0.14166451645902767, '6': 0.09802523949779862, '7': 0.0568174396054204, '8': 0.027586228193830116, '9': 0.011219407136399588, '10': 0.003822208822141005}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06563779918418954, '1': 0.10983431833146057, '2': 0.15313436062365254, '3': 0.1778925590363783, '4': 0.1721842638178069, '5': 0.1388608041752596, '6': 0.09330747484841251, '7': 0.052240068680469924, '8': 0.024369217521464905, '9': 0.009471744451723853, '10': 0.003067389329181165}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.3954, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.364, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.1296}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0054, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.434, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CLE', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'CLE', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1296, 'winner': 'CLE', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 130.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 130.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 3 - 4 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 3 - 4 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.520.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=28; H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=4; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Angel Martínez: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Nathaniel Lowe: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jo Adell: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Patrick Bailey: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Angel Genao: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Petey Halpin: SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=2, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Riley Greene: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kevin McGonigle: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Ben Malgeri: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brett Callahan: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=4; Max Clark: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Dillon Dingler: AB current=5 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.623107316408397	5.231584399144559		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.520	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	3	4
CLE	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	4	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	DET	batting	33	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	DET	pitching		5			2		4	1	4					8.0	4	0	0
current	CLE	batting	33	7	1	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		4			1		3	2	12					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	DET	batting	31	4	1	1	1	3	3	2	12	0	0
simulation	DET	pitching		5			2		4	1	4					8.0	4	30	130
simulation	CLE	batting	28	5	0	0	2	4	4	1	4	1	0
simulation	CLE	pitching		4			1		3	2	12					9.0	3	33	155

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	DET		1B	Colt Keith	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	DET		DH	Riley Greene	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	DET		3B	Kevin McGonigle	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		RF	Ben Malgeri	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	DET		LF	Brett Callahan	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	DET		CF	Max Clark	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	DET		C	Dillon Dingler	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	DET		2B	Hao-Yu Lee	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	DET		SS	John Peck	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		DH	Steven Kwan	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		LF	Angel Martínez	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		2B	Travis Bazzana	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	CLE		1B	Nathaniel Lowe	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	CLE		RF	Jo Adell	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		C	Patrick Bailey	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	CLE		3B	Angel Genao	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	CLE		CF	Petey Halpin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	DET	1	3B	Kevin McGonigle	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	DET	2	2B	Hao-Yu Lee	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	DET	3	1B	Colt Keith	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	DET	4	DH	Riley Greene	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	DET	5	C	Dillon Dingler	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	DET	6	LF	Brett Callahan	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0.000
simulation	DET	7	RF	Ben Malgeri	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	DET	8	CF	Max Clark	3	3	1	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	0.333
simulation	DET	9	SS	John Peck	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	1	DH	Steven Kwan	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	2	2B	Travis Bazzana	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	CLE	3	RF	Jo Adell	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	4	1B	Nathaniel Lowe	3	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	CLE	5	LF	Angel Martínez	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	6	3B	Angel Genao	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	7	C	Patrick Bailey	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	CLE	8	CF	Petey Halpin	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	CLE	9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	DET	1	Jackson Jobe	Starter	5.0	2	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	1.80	4.63	1.46
current	DET	4	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.1	3	3	3	0	0	1	0	0	20.25	2.86	1.29
current	DET	6	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.35	1.14
current	CLE	1	Gavin Williams	Starter	5.1	2	2	2	1	9	0	0	0	3.38	3.81	1.09
current	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.32	1.08
current	CLE	3	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.61	1.09
current	CLE	4	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	2.72	1.15
simulation	DET	1	Jackson Jobe	Starter	5.0	2	1	1	1	3	1	18	83	1.80	4.63	1.46
simulation	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	21	0.00	3.35	1.14
simulation	DET	3	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.1	3	3	3	0	0	1	7	26	20.25	2.86	1.29
simulation	CLE	1	Gavin Williams	Starter	5.1	2	2	2	1	9	0	19	89	3.38	3.81	1.09
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	5	29	0.00	2.32	1.08
simulation	CLE	3	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	4	16	9.00	2.72	1.15
simulation	CLE	4	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	21	0.00	2.61	1.09

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
DET	Jackson Jobe	Starter	5.0	1	2	1	3	18	83
DET	Tyler Holton	Setup Man	1.1	3	3	0	0	7	26
DET	Kenley Jansen	Closer	1.2	0	0	0	1	5	21
CLE	Gavin Williams	Starter	5.1	2	2	1	9	19	89
CLE	Cade Smith	Closer	1.1	0	1	0	1	5	29
CLE	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	1	1	5	21
CLE	Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260906_LAA@PIT

20260906_LAA@PIT.json • 2026-09-06

LAA 3 - PIT 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=3, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=5).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=7, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mike Trout: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Moisés Ballesteros: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Adam Frazier: AB current=3 box=4; Zach Neto: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=0; Tyler Heineman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nick Gonzales: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Konnor Griffin: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Oneil Cruz: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Esmerlyn Valdez: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jacob Gonzalez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Henry Davis: RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match PIT pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match PIT pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match PIT pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=39 matches PIT BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match LAA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match LAA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match LAA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=37 matches LAA BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.564 -> 0.553 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.564108, 'sample_size': 334, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5419, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.553004, 'published_confidence': 0.572315, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.428.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.572.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.572.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.559/0.749.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAA 6, PIT 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAA 3 - PIT 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for PIT.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5723146, 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.635729, 'artifact': '20260905_LAA@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.662027, 'artifact': '20260904_LAA@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_LAA@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAA@PIT.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': -4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.03, 'away_run_delta': 0.03, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024512582911883154}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024336759661170947}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02322702482388879}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023060422592553576}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.022093599935953903}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.037837713856658545, '1': 0.06489864284888115, '2': 0.09744290894705206, '3': 0.12807629766153478, '4': 0.1473639276816245, '5': 0.1484285724890448, '6': 0.13087229913333523, '7': 0.10101406597098472, '8': 0.06825270560141597, '9': 0.04037028266927519, '10': 0.02090295125183029, '11': 0.009474522340152003, '12': 0.0037593342339330947, '13': 0.0013057753142776021}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05166317702619178, '1': 0.08752474330673997, '2': 0.12663755015134093, '3': 0.15648621039997623, '4': 0.1651473331638514, '5': 0.1488500466282163, '6': 0.11457986428954378, '7': 0.07532680558159485, '8': 0.0422934113072668, '9': 0.020280459927108294, '10': 0.008305481251956402, '11': 0.0029049169662131173}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.8739, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.432, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.7192}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 5 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 5 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.131, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.432, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7192, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 6 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 3 - 5 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAA 3 - 5 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PIT, simulation=PIT, published=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.572.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PIT wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match PIT pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match PIT pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match PIT pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=39 matches PIT BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match LAA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match LAA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match LAA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=37 matches LAA BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.564 -> 0.553 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.564108, 'sample_size': 334, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5419, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.553004, 'published_confidence': 0.572315, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.428.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.572.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.572.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.559/0.749.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAA 6, PIT 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAA 3 - PIT 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for PIT.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5723146, 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.635729, 'artifact': '20260905_LAA@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'PIT', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.662027, 'artifact': '20260904_LAA@PIT.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_LAA@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAA@PIT.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': -4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.03, 'away_run_delta': 0.03, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024512582911883154}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.024336759661170947}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02322702482388879}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023060422592553576}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.022093599935953903}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.037837713856658545, '1': 0.06489864284888115, '2': 0.09744290894705206, '3': 0.12807629766153478, '4': 0.1473639276816245, '5': 0.1484285724890448, '6': 0.13087229913333523, '7': 0.10101406597098472, '8': 0.06825270560141597, '9': 0.04037028266927519, '10': 0.02090295125183029, '11': 0.009474522340152003, '12': 0.0037593342339330947, '13': 0.0013057753142776021}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.05166317702619178, '1': 0.08752474330673997, '2': 0.12663755015134093, '3': 0.15648621039997623, '4': 0.1651473331638514, '5': 0.1488500466282163, '6': 0.11457986428954378, '7': 0.07532680558159485, '8': 0.0422934113072668, '9': 0.020280459927108294, '10': 0.008305481251956402, '11': 0.0029049169662131173}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.8739, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.432, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.7192}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 5 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 5 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.131, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.432, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'PIT', 'model_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'PIT', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7192, 'winner': 'PIT', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 6 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 3 - 5 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAA 3 - 5 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PIT, simulation=PIT, published=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.572.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): PIT wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=3, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=5).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=7, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mike Trout: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Moisés Ballesteros: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Adam Frazier: AB current=3 box=4; Zach Neto: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=0; Tyler Heineman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nick Gonzales: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Konnor Griffin: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Oneil Cruz: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Esmerlyn Valdez: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jacob Gonzalez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Henry Davis: RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.374223898939737	5.507632830563514		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.572	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by season_quality_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	3	6
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	5	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	LAA	batting	32	7	1	0	1	4	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	LAA	pitching		3			0		5	3	9					8.0	5	0	0
current	PIT	batting	33	8	1	0	1	4	5	4	9	0	0	0	0
current	PIT	pitching		6			2		3	5	8					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	LAA	batting	33	6	1	0	2	3	3	5	8	0	1
simulation	LAA	pitching		7			0		5	5	9					8.0	5	37	169
simulation	PIT	batting	31	7	3	0	0	5	5	5	9	0	1
simulation	PIT	pitching		6			2		3	5	8					9.0	3	39	168

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	LAA		DH	Mike Trout	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		RF	Wade Meckler	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		3B	Vaughn Grissom	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		1B	Moisés Ballesteros	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		CF	Josh Lowe	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	LAA		LF	Adam Frazier	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		SS	Zach Neto	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0.200
current	LAA		C	Tyler Heineman	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	LAA		2B	Christian Moore	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		DH	Nick Gonzales	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		SS	Konnor Griffin	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	PIT		CF	Oneil Cruz	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
current	PIT		3B	Jacob Gonzalez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	PIT		LF	Bryan Reynolds	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		2B	Brandon Lowe	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		C	Henry Davis	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	PIT		1B	Spencer Horwitz	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	1	SS	Zach Neto	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	LAA	2	DH	Mike Trout	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	3	RF	Wade Meckler	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	LAA	4	3B	Vaughn Grissom	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	LAA	5	1B	Moisés Ballesteros	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	6	2B	Christian Moore	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	7	CF	Josh Lowe	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	8	LF	Adam Frazier	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	9	C	Tyler Heineman	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	1	SS	Konnor Griffin	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	PIT	2	2B	Brandon Lowe	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	3	LF	Bryan Reynolds	4	4	2	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	PIT	4	DH	Nick Gonzales	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	5	CF	Oneil Cruz	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	6	RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	7	1B	Spencer Horwitz	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	1	2	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	8	3B	Jacob Gonzalez	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	PIT	9	C	Henry Davis	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	LAA	1	Walbert Ureña	Starter	5.2	2	4	4	1	8	0	0	0	6.35	2.85	1.26
current	LAA	2	Ben Joyce	Closer	2.1	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	3.86	2.89	0.86
current	PIT	1	Paul Skenes	Starter	5.2	2	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.97	1.16
current	PIT	2	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	9.00	2.72	1.02
current	PIT	3	Luke Weaver	Setup Man	1.1	2	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	6.75	2.53	0.94
current	PIT	4	Mason Montgomery	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	9.00	2.61	1.02
simulation	LAA	1	Walbert Ureña	Starter	5.2	2	2	2	1	8	0	21	93	3.18	2.85	1.26
simulation	LAA	2	Ben Joyce	Closer	2.1	5	3	3	4	1	0	16	76	11.57	2.89	0.86
simulation	PIT	1	Paul Skenes	Starter	5.2	2	0	0	3	2	0	23	101	0.00	3.97	1.16
simulation	PIT	2	Mason Montgomery	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	1	4	16	9.00	2.61	1.02
simulation	PIT	3	Luke Weaver	Setup Man	1.1	2	1	1	2	2	0	8	35	6.75	2.53	0.94
simulation	PIT	4	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	1	4	16	9.00	2.72	1.02

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
LAA	Walbert Ureña	Starter	5.2	2	2	1	8	21	93
LAA	Ben Joyce	Closer	2.1	3	5	4	1	16	76
PIT	Paul Skenes	Starter	5.2	0	2	3	2	23	101
PIT	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	0	2	4	16
PIT	Luke Weaver	Setup Man	1.1	1	2	2	2	8	35
PIT	Mason Montgomery	Closer	1.0	1	1	0	2	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260906_MIL@CIN

20260906_MIL@CIN.json • 2026-09-06

MIL 7 - CIN 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=4; HR: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Elly De La Cruz: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Tyler Stephenson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Dane Myers: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Matt McLain: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Juan Brito: AB current=3 box=4; Héctor Rodríguez: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; JJ Bleday: BB current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; SO: current=8, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Christian Yelich: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Sal Frelick: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jake Bauers: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Garrett Mitchell: RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Bo Naylor: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Cooper Pratt: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match MIL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match MIL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=43 matches MIL BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match CIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match CIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=39 matches CIN BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.673 -> 0.616 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.672796, 'sample_size': 268, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5597, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.616248, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.508/0.690.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 9, CIN 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 7 - CIN 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 6 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-07-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'CIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 6, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.54, 'artifact': '20260905_MIL@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.54, 'artifact': '20260904_MIL@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260702', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260702_CIN@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260701', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260701_CIN@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260629', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.598675, 'artifact': '20260629_CIN@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 5 CIN', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 5 CIN', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0228, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.258, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4797, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_MIL@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@CIN.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0173, 'away_run_delta': 0.0173, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.017023093825884388}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016739888933043106}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.016403178694701027}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016130287026946393}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.015810720684398212}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.02917056483878335, '1': 0.05043835988336487, '2': 0.07758749934123599, '3': 0.10617865861941982, '4': 0.12926989481530662, '5': 0.14001424971470985, '6': 0.13491547314288274, '7': 0.11565541336039312, '8': 0.08820330340013718, '9': 0.05984369727772767, '10': 0.03612157389570972, '11': 0.019396777953676177, '12': 0.009266318088974438, '13': 0.003938215667678543}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.016107833107670073, '1': 0.02822016343514558, '2': 0.04515534667281198, '3': 0.06599120975915397, '4': 0.08808262564388794, '5': 0.10737957157673256, '6': 0.1195584661357823, '7': 0.12158115235106635, '8': 0.11292222553499955, '9': 0.09578992987328719, '10': 0.07421428960374048, '11': 0.052514890812358606, '12': 0.03393943841743011, '13': 0.02003337358673847, '14': 0.010800174705917643, '15': 0.005317833364978472, '16': 0.002391475418298811}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.1752, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.188, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.4797}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 5 CIN', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 5 CIN', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0228, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.258, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4797, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 189.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 174.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 174.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 189.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 7 - 5 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 7 - 5 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 7-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-5, final 7-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 12.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 7-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match MIL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match MIL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=43 matches MIL BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match CIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match CIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=39 matches CIN BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.673 -> 0.616 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.672796, 'sample_size': 268, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5597, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.616248, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 12.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.508/0.690.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 9, CIN 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 7 - CIN 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 6 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-07-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'CIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 6, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 6, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.54, 'artifact': '20260905_MIL@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'MIL', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.54, 'artifact': '20260904_MIL@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260702', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260702_CIN@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260701', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260701_CIN@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260629', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.598675, 'artifact': '20260629_CIN@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 5 CIN', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 5 CIN', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0228, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.258, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4797, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_MIL@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@CIN.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.0173, 'away_run_delta': 0.0173, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -5.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.017023093825884388}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016739888933043106}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 7, 'probability': 0.016403178694701027}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016130287026946393}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 8, 'probability': 0.015810720684398212}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.02917056483878335, '1': 0.05043835988336487, '2': 0.07758749934123599, '3': 0.10617865861941982, '4': 0.12926989481530662, '5': 0.14001424971470985, '6': 0.13491547314288274, '7': 0.11565541336039312, '8': 0.08820330340013718, '9': 0.05984369727772767, '10': 0.03612157389570972, '11': 0.019396777953676177, '12': 0.009266318088974438, '13': 0.003938215667678543}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.016107833107670073, '1': 0.02822016343514558, '2': 0.04515534667281198, '3': 0.06599120975915397, '4': 0.08808262564388794, '5': 0.10737957157673256, '6': 0.1195584661357823, '7': 0.12158115235106635, '8': 0.11292222553499955, '9': 0.09578992987328719, '10': 0.07421428960374048, '11': 0.052514890812358606, '12': 0.03393943841743011, '13': 0.02003337358673847, '14': 0.010800174705917643, '15': 0.005317833364978472, '16': 0.002391475418298811}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.1752, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.188, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.4797}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 5 CIN', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIL 7 - 5 CIN', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0228, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.258, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4797, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 189.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 174.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 174.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 189.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 10 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 7 - 5 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 7 - 5 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 7-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-5, final 7-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 12.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 7-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=4; HR: current=2, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Elly De La Cruz: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Tyler Stephenson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Dane Myers: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Matt McLain: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Juan Brito: AB current=3 box=4; Héctor Rodríguez: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; JJ Bleday: BB current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; SO: current=8, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Christian Yelich: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Sal Frelick: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jake Bauers: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Garrett Mitchell: RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Bo Naylor: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Cooper Pratt: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.977399881641083	3.083739073296625		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	3		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	7	5	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	3	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	7	9
CIN	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	1	5	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIL	batting	34	8	1	0	1	4	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIL	pitching		10			1		5	5	8					9.0	5	0	0
current	CIN	batting	32	8	2	0	2	4	5	4	10	0	0	0	0
current	CIN	pitching		9			1		7	3	11					9.0	7	0	0
simulation	MIL	batting	36	9	2	1	1	7	7	3	11	0	0
simulation	MIL	pitching		10			1		5	5	8					9.0	5	43	189
simulation	CIN	batting	37	10	4	0	1	5	5	5	8	0	1
simulation	CIN	pitching		9			1		7	3	11					9.0	7	39	174

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	MIL		DH	Christian Yelich	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		LF	Jackson Chourio	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	MIL		RF	Sal Frelick	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	MIL		1B	Jake Bauers	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	MIL		CF	Garrett Mitchell	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		2B	Brice Turang	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		C	Bo Naylor	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		SS	Cooper Pratt	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		3B	David Hamilton	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		DH	Elly De La Cruz	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		3B	Eugenio Suárez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		C	Tyler Stephenson	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		CF	Dane Myers	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		SS	Matt McLain	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		2B	Juan Brito	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	CIN		RF	Héctor Rodríguez	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0.250
current	CIN		LF	JJ Bleday	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		1B	Sal Stewart	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	1	RF	Sal Frelick	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	2	DH	Christian Yelich	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	MIL	3	LF	Jackson Chourio	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	MIL	4	1B	Jake Bauers	4	4	2	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	MIL	5	CF	Garrett Mitchell	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	6	2B	Brice Turang	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	7	SS	Cooper Pratt	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	8	C	Bo Naylor	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	MIL	9	3B	David Hamilton	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	1	CF	Dane Myers	5	4	3	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0.750
simulation	CIN	2	DH	Elly De La Cruz	5	4	3	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.750
simulation	CIN	3	1B	Sal Stewart	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	4	C	Tyler Stephenson	5	4	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	CIN	5	3B	Eugenio Suárez	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	6	LF	JJ Bleday	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	CIN	7	SS	Matt McLain	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	8	2B	Juan Brito	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	9	RF	Héctor Rodríguez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIL	1	Kyle Harrison	Starter	5.0	3	2	2	3	5	1	0	0	3.60	3.45	1.20
current	MIL	2	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.19	1.35
current	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	3	2	2	1	2	0	0	0	18.00	1.97	0.99
current	MIL	4	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	3.82	1.33
current	MIL	5	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.49	0.79
current	CIN	1	Brady Singer	Starter	5.0	6	5	5	2	5	0	0	0	9.00	4.83	1.45
current	CIN	2	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.1	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.96	1.48
current	CIN	3	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	2	1	2	1	0	0	18.00	2.54	1.31
current	CIN	4	Emilio Pagán	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.96	1.07
current	CIN	5	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	5.65	1.55
simulation	MIL	1	Kyle Harrison	Starter	5.0	3	2	2	3	5	1	22	96	3.60	3.45	1.20
simulation	MIL	2	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	1.49	0.79
simulation	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	3	2	2	1	2	0	7	26	18.00	1.97	0.99
simulation	MIL	4	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	25	0.00	3.19	1.35
simulation	MIL	5	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	4	1	1	0	0	0	7	25	9.00	3.82	1.33
simulation	CIN	1	Brady Singer	Starter	5.0	6	5	5	2	5	0	23	101	9.00	4.83	1.45
simulation	CIN	2	Emilio Pagán	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	3.96	1.07
simulation	CIN	3	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.1	2	0	0	0	1	0	6	32	0.00	3.96	1.48
simulation	CIN	4	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	2	1	2	1	5	20	18.00	2.54	1.31
simulation	CIN	5	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	8	0.00	5.65	1.55

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIL	Kyle Harrison	Starter	5.0	2	3	3	5	22	96
MIL	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	25
MIL	Abner Uribe	Setup Man	1.0	2	3	1	2	7	26
MIL	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	4	0	0	7	25
MIL	Trevor Megill	Closer	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
CIN	Brady Singer	Starter	5.0	5	6	2	5	23	101
CIN	Luis Mey	Setup Man	1.1	0	2	0	1	6	32
CIN	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	2	5	20
CIN	Emilio Pagán	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
CIN	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	8

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260906_MIN@CHW

20260906_MIN@CHW.json • 2026-09-06

MIN 4 - CHW 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sam Antonacci: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Colson Montgomery: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Kyle Teel: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=7; HR: current=2, sim=3).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Josh Bell: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan Jeffers: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Trevor Larnach: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Walker Jenkins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match MIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match MIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match MIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=35 matches MIN BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match CHW pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match CHW pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=36 matches CHW BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.534 -> 0.548 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.533633, 'sample_size': 228, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5614, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.547517, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.518/0.701.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 8, CHW 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 4 - CHW 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHW.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHW; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-08-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260905_MIN@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.538103, 'artifact': '20260904_MIN@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260830', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.686674, 'artifact': '20260830_CHW@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260829', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.570729, 'artifact': '20260829_CHW@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260828', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.526937, 'artifact': '20260828_CHW@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHW', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHW', 'final_score_winner': 'CHW', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 6 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 6 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0106, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.018, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.372, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_MIN@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@CHW.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0058, 'away_run_delta': -0.0058, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022441292833995253}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022355555947382734}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.022223089030048607}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02213818579036257}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.019763210303638448}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03824862498783499, '1': 0.06557886491913252, '2': 0.09835366458602454, '3': 0.12903150988628798, '4': 0.14807426821737474, '5': 0.14864215508962544, '6': 0.1305217758670224, '7': 0.10025419115150105, '8': 0.06735978360670102, '9': 0.039589262524061614, '10': 0.020353201051060567, '11': 0.00915306646638403, '12': 0.0036006349444913177, '13': 0.0012389967024977956}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03995226370969719, '1': 0.06839640177830318, '2': 0.102115411200652, '3': 0.1329583138223608, '4': 0.15097529244287414, '5': 0.14950731181641538, '6': 0.12911751489249543, '7': 0.09724651733829541, '8': 0.06387473743193835, '9': 0.036588985780038406, '10': 0.01827838359400034, '11': 0.007963268803483503, '12': 0.003025597389445706}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.6197, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.088, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.372}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 6 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 6 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0106, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.018, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.372, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 148.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 148.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 4 - 6 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 4 - 6 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHW wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHW, simulation=CHW, published=CHW.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHW wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHW wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHW wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match MIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match MIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match MIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=35 matches MIN BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match CHW pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match CHW pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=36 matches CHW BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.534 -> 0.548 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.533633, 'sample_size': 228, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5614, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.547517, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.518/0.701.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 8, CHW 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 4 - CHW 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHW.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHW; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-08-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260905_MIN@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.538103, 'artifact': '20260904_MIN@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260830', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.686674, 'artifact': '20260830_CHW@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260829', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.570729, 'artifact': '20260829_CHW@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260828', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'MIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.526937, 'artifact': '20260828_CHW@MIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHW', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHW', 'final_score_winner': 'CHW', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 6 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 6 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0106, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.018, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.372, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_MIN@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@CHW.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.2, 'home_run_delta': 0.0058, 'away_run_delta': -0.0058, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022441292833995253}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022355555947382734}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.022223089030048607}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02213818579036257}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.019763210303638448}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03824862498783499, '1': 0.06557886491913252, '2': 0.09835366458602454, '3': 0.12903150988628798, '4': 0.14807426821737474, '5': 0.14864215508962544, '6': 0.1305217758670224, '7': 0.10025419115150105, '8': 0.06735978360670102, '9': 0.039589262524061614, '10': 0.020353201051060567, '11': 0.00915306646638403, '12': 0.0036006349444913177, '13': 0.0012389967024977956}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.03995226370969719, '1': 0.06839640177830318, '2': 0.102115411200652, '3': 0.1329583138223608, '4': 0.15097529244287414, '5': 0.14950731181641538, '6': 0.12911751489249543, '7': 0.09724651733829541, '8': 0.06387473743193835, '9': 0.036588985780038406, '10': 0.01827838359400034, '11': 0.007963268803483503, '12': 0.003025597389445706}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.6197, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.088, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.372}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 6 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 6 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0106, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.018, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'CHW', 'model_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner': 'CHW', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'CHW', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.5, 'draw_majority_team': None, 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.372, 'winner': 'CHW', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 148.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 148.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 4 - 6 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 4 - 6 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHW wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHW, simulation=CHW, published=CHW.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHW wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHW wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHW wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sam Antonacci: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Colson Montgomery: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Andrew Benintendi: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Kyle Teel: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=7; HR: current=2, sim=3).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=35; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Josh Bell: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan Jeffers: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Trevor Larnach: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Walker Jenkins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.2953134412064067	6.141655509941847		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	6		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	4	8
CHW	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	6	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIN	batting	36	8	2	0	1	5	5	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	MIN	pitching		6			2		6	3	7					8.0	6	0	0
current	CHW	batting	32	8	2	0	1	4	5	4	9	0	0	0	0
current	CHW	pitching		8			2		4	1	9					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	MIN	batting	35	8	0	0	2	4	4	1	9	0	0
simulation	MIN	pitching		7			3		6	3	7					8.1	6	35	148
simulation	CHW	batting	32	7	2	0	3	6	6	3	7	0	0
simulation	CHW	pitching		8			2		4	1	9					9.0	4	36	166

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	MIN		RF	Luke Keaschall	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		DH	Josh Bell	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.200
current	MIN		C	Ryan Jeffers	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIN		3B	Brooks Lee	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.200
current	MIN		2B	Kody Clemens	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIN		1B	Royce Lewis	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIN		LF	Trevor Larnach	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIN		CF	Walker Jenkins	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.000
current	MIN		SS	Kaelen Culpepper	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		LF	Sam Antonacci	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
current	CHW		1B	Munetaka Murakami	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	0.250
current	CHW		RF	Braden Montgomery	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		CF	Tristan Peters	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	CHW		SS	Colson Montgomery	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		3B	Miguel Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		DH	Andrew Benintendi	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		C	Kyle Teel	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	CHW		2B	Chase Meidroth	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIN	1	RF	Luke Keaschall	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIN	2	3B	Brooks Lee	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIN	3	C	Ryan Jeffers	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	MIN	4	DH	Josh Bell	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	MIN	5	2B	Kody Clemens	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	MIN	6	1B	Royce Lewis	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	MIN	7	LF	Trevor Larnach	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	MIN	8	SS	Kaelen Culpepper	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	9	CF	Walker Jenkins	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0.250
simulation	CHW	1	LF	Sam Antonacci	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHW	2	3B	Miguel Vargas	4	4	2	0	2	1	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	CHW	3	1B	Munetaka Murakami	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	4	DH	Andrew Benintendi	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHW	5	SS	Colson Montgomery	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CHW	6	RF	Braden Montgomery	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	CHW	7	CF	Tristan Peters	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHW	8	2B	Chase Meidroth	4	3	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0.333
simulation	CHW	9	C	Kyle Teel	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIN	1	Bailey Ober	Starter	5.1	4	5	5	3	4	2	0	0	8.44	4.37	1.24
current	MIN	2	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	9.00	1.72	0.95
current	MIN	3	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.56	1.35
current	MIN	4	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.81	1.39
current	CHW	1	Bryan Hudson	Starter	5.0	3	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	0.00	2.58	1.16
current	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.2	4	3	3	0	2	1	0	0	16.20	2.40	1.03
current	CHW	3	Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.44	1.07
current	CHW	4	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	3.83	1.50
simulation	MIN	1	Bailey Ober	Starter	5.1	4	4	4	3	4	2	24	103	6.75	4.37	1.24
simulation	MIN	2	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.56	1.35
simulation	MIN	3	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	3.81	1.39
simulation	MIN	4	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	2	2	0	2	1	5	21	13.50	1.72	0.95
simulation	CHW	1	Bryan Hudson	Starter	5.0	3	0	0	1	5	0	19	88	0.00	2.58	1.16
simulation	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.2	4	3	3	0	2	1	9	45	16.20	2.40	1.03
simulation	CHW	3	Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.44	1.07
simulation	CHW	4	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	4	16	9.00	3.83	1.50

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIN	Bailey Ober	Starter	5.1	4	4	3	4	24	103
MIN	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	2	0	2	5	21
MIN	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
MIN	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	0.2	0	1	0	0	3	11
CHW	Bryan Hudson	Starter	5.0	0	3	1	5	19	88
CHW	Grant Taylor	Closer	1.2	3	4	0	2	9	45
CHW	Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
CHW	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260906_NYY@SD

20260906_NYY@SD.json • 2026-09-06

NYY 4 - SD 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cody Bellinger: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Spencer Jones: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; George Lombard Jr.: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jasson Domínguez: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Ryan McMahon: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake Cronenworth: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ty France: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Xander Bogaerts: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dustin Harris: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jackson Merrill: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Luis Campusano: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match SD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=36 matches SD BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match NYY pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match NYY pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=34 matches NYY BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.564 -> 0.548 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5636, 'sample_size': 379, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.533, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5483, 'published_confidence': 0.535664, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.536.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.536.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.464.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.683/0.893.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 6, SD 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 4 - SD 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5485059999999999, 'artifact': '20260905_NYY@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.643445, 'artifact': '20260904_NYY@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'SD', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYY', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYY 4 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYY 4 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0256, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.628, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.776, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_NYY@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@SD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.5, 'home_run_delta': -0.0225, 'away_run_delta': 0.0225, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.035144330896002836}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03416477913160165}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.033300293859423145}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.032372139566157435}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.030159338785342063}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.08708105303156216, '1': 0.14294604250781281, '2': 0.18814815983131972, '3': 0.1985670521257218, '4': 0.1680326885971484, '5': 0.1140144085873768, '6': 0.06203047058526222, '7': 0.02706012432073841, '8': 0.009465288892642414, '9': 0.0026547115204152874}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06494075363425493, '1': 0.10873542055144429, '2': 0.15188490971929633, '3': 0.17698973983735916, '4': 0.17205663661648352, '5': 0.13953547713728362, '6': 0.09440342025879006, '7': 0.05328202122630316, '8': 0.025087854824483693, '9': 0.0098545373345676, '10': 0.0032292288597336656}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8556, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.628, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.776}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYY 4 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYY 4 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0256, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.628, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.776, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 4 - 3 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 4 - 3 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.536.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match SD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=36 matches SD BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match NYY pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match NYY pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=34 matches NYY BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.564 -> 0.548 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5636, 'sample_size': 379, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.533, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5483, 'published_confidence': 0.535664, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.536.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.536.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.464.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.683/0.893.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 6, SD 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 4 - SD 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5485059999999999, 'artifact': '20260905_NYY@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'NYY', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.643445, 'artifact': '20260904_NYY@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'SD', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYY', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYY 4 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYY 4 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0256, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.628, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.776, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_NYY@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@SD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': -3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': -1.5, 'home_run_delta': -0.0225, 'away_run_delta': 0.0225, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.035144330896002836}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03416477913160165}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.033300293859423145}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.032372139566157435}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.030159338785342063}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.08708105303156216, '1': 0.14294604250781281, '2': 0.18814815983131972, '3': 0.1985670521257218, '4': 0.1680326885971484, '5': 0.1140144085873768, '6': 0.06203047058526222, '7': 0.02706012432073841, '8': 0.009465288892642414, '9': 0.0026547115204152874}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06494075363425493, '1': 0.10873542055144429, '2': 0.15188490971929633, '3': 0.17698973983735916, '4': 0.17205663661648352, '5': 0.13953547713728362, '6': 0.09440342025879006, '7': 0.05328202122630316, '8': 0.025087854824483693, '9': 0.0098545373345676, '10': 0.0032292288597336656}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8556, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.628, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.776}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYY 4 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYY 4 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0256, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.628, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'NYY', 'model_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'NYY', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYY', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.776, 'winner': 'NYY', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 4 - 3 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 4 - 3 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYY, simulation=NYY, published=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.536.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYY wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cody Bellinger: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Spencer Jones: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; George Lombard Jr.: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jasson Domínguez: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Ryan McMahon: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake Cronenworth: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ty France: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Xander Bogaerts: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dustin Harris: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jackson Merrill: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Luis Campusano: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.110333396481314	4.006171477845585		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.536	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	4	6
SD	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	3	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	NYY	batting	32	8	1	0	1	4	5	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	NYY	pitching		6			0		3	1	5					9.0	3	0	0
current	SD	batting	33	7	1	0	1	3	3	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	SD	pitching		6			2		4	3	7					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	NYY	batting	33	6	0	0	2	4	4	3	7	0	0
simulation	NYY	pitching		6			0		3	1	5					9.0	3	34	131
simulation	SD	batting	33	6	2	0	0	3	3	1	5	0	0
simulation	SD	pitching		6			2		4	3	7					9.0	4	36	142

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	NYY		DH	Ben Rice	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	NYY		LF	Cody Bellinger	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	NYY		CF	Spencer Jones	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		1B	Luis García Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
current	NYY		SS	George Lombard Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		RF	Jasson Domínguez	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		3B	Ryan McMahon	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	NYY		C	Austin Wells	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	SD		RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	SD		2B	Jake Cronenworth	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	SD		3B	Manny Machado	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	SD		1B	Ty France	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SD		SS	Xander Bogaerts	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SD		DH	Ethan Salas	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	SD		LF	Dustin Harris	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	SD		CF	Jackson Merrill	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	SD		C	Luis Campusano	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	NYY	1	DH	Ben Rice	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	0.333
simulation	NYY	2	LF	Cody Bellinger	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	NYY	3	1B	Luis García Jr.	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	4	CF	Spencer Jones	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	NYY	5	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	NYY	6	RF	Jasson Domínguez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	NYY	7	SS	George Lombard Jr.	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	8	3B	Ryan McMahon	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	9	C	Austin Wells	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SD	2	2B	Jake Cronenworth	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	SD	3	3B	Manny Machado	4	3	2	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	SD	4	1B	Ty France	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SD	5	CF	Jackson Merrill	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	SD	6	C	Luis Campusano	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	SD	7	LF	Dustin Harris	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SD	8	SS	Xander Bogaerts	3	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	SD	9	DH	Ethan Salas	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	NYY	1	Gerrit Cole	Starter	6.1	4	3	3	1	5	0	0	0	4.26	3.29	1.11
current	NYY	2	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.89	1.16
current	NYY	3	David Bednar	Closer	1.2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.64	1.03
current	SD	1	Michael King	Starter	6.0	5	2	2	2	5	1	0	0	3.00	3.11	1.17
current	SD	2	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.74	1.07
current	SD	3	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	18.00	1.85	1.01
current	SD	4	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.21	0.83
simulation	NYY	1	Gerrit Cole	Starter	6.1	4	3	3	1	5	0	24	96	4.26	3.29	1.11
simulation	NYY	2	David Bednar	Closer	1.2	2	0	0	0	0	0	7	22	0.00	2.64	1.03
simulation	NYY	3	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	1.89	1.16
simulation	SD	1	Michael King	Starter	6.0	5	2	2	2	5	1	25	99	3.00	3.11	1.17
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	1.21	0.83
simulation	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.74	1.07
simulation	SD	4	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	2	1	0	1	5	17	18.00	1.85	1.01

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
NYY	Gerrit Cole	Starter	6.1	3	4	1	5	24	96
NYY	Brent Headrick	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
NYY	David Bednar	Closer	1.2	0	2	0	0	7	22
SD	Michael King	Starter	6.0	2	5	2	5	25	99
SD	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
SD	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	5	17
SD	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260906_OAK@SEA

20260906_OAK@SEA.json • 2026-09-06

OAK 6 - SEA 7

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: BB current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Carlos Cortes: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Alika Williams: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Donovan Walton: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Zack Gelof: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, HR current=1 box=0; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; SO: current=8, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Dominic Canzone: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Josh Naylor: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; J.P. Crawford: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Player-703197: AB current=3 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Randy Arozarena: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Jhonny Pereda: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match SEA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match SEA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match SEA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=34 matches SEA BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match OAK pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match OAK pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match OAK pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=34 matches OAK BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.584 -> 0.573 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.584126, 'sample_size': 313, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5623, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.573213, 'published_confidence': 0.5442, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.456.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.544.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.544.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 13 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 13.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.470/0.646.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 7, SEA 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 6 - SEA 7.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for SEA.	{'winner_confidence': 0.54419966, 'h2h_net_margin': -8, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260905_OAK@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.548498, 'artifact': '20260904_OAK@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260903', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.637251, 'artifact': '20260903_OAK@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_OAK@SEA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@SEA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.6, 'home_run_delta': 0.0173, 'away_run_delta': -0.0173, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016948130318462047}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016626114536303676}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016333484949892348}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01602314747710444}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015929528838634983}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.01999512606490119, '1': 0.03488606795069833, '2': 0.05513382149727663, '3': 0.07892641323361754, '4': 0.10234457711374982, '5': 0.1202113577481027, '6': 0.12789818063750655, '7': 0.12325979145237619, '8': 0.10760109433235959, '9': 0.08508444015367117, '10': 0.06094271534895083, '11': 0.03953954372582911, '12': 0.023236981050339913, '13': 0.012369893255809634, '14': 0.00596472461841839, '15': 0.0026052718163923692}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.023831431534051588, '1': 0.041417912205042304, '2': 0.06469710778187707, '3': 0.09083226010461787, '4': 0.11461830071629439, '5': 0.1299949260687764, '6': 0.13251267714665171, '7': 0.1214079275505291, '8': 0.09997588429701589, '9': 0.07399494531728523, '10': 0.04922292798918818, '11': 0.029430078800301903, '12': 0.015815174820064247, '13': 0.007638624470958826, '14': 0.003316002990804346, '15': 0.0012938182065410258}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.8846, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.636, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3524}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'OAK 6 - 7 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'OAK 6 - 7 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0113, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.706, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3524, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 129.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 129.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 6 - 7 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 6 - 7 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 7-6.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SEA, simulation=SEA, published=SEA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.544.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SEA wins 7-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 6-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-7, final 6-7 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 13.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SEA wins 7-6.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match SEA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match SEA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match SEA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=34 matches SEA BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match OAK pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match OAK pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match OAK pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=34 matches OAK BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.584 -> 0.573 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.584126, 'sample_size': 313, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5623, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.573213, 'published_confidence': 0.5442, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.456.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.544.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.544.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 13 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 13.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.470/0.646.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 7, SEA 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 6 - SEA 7.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for SEA.	{'winner_confidence': 0.54419966, 'h2h_net_margin': -8, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260905_OAK@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.548498, 'artifact': '20260904_OAK@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260903', 'away': 'OAK', 'home': 'SEA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.637251, 'artifact': '20260903_OAK@SEA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_OAK@SEA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@SEA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 3.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 3.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.6, 'home_run_delta': 0.0173, 'away_run_delta': -0.0173, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 8.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016948130318462047}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.016626114536303676}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.016333484949892348}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.01602314747710444}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.015929528838634983}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.01999512606490119, '1': 0.03488606795069833, '2': 0.05513382149727663, '3': 0.07892641323361754, '4': 0.10234457711374982, '5': 0.1202113577481027, '6': 0.12789818063750655, '7': 0.12325979145237619, '8': 0.10760109433235959, '9': 0.08508444015367117, '10': 0.06094271534895083, '11': 0.03953954372582911, '12': 0.023236981050339913, '13': 0.012369893255809634, '14': 0.00596472461841839, '15': 0.0026052718163923692}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.023831431534051588, '1': 0.041417912205042304, '2': 0.06469710778187707, '3': 0.09083226010461787, '4': 0.11461830071629439, '5': 0.1299949260687764, '6': 0.13251267714665171, '7': 0.1214079275505291, '8': 0.09997588429701589, '9': 0.07399494531728523, '10': 0.04922292798918818, '11': 0.029430078800301903, '12': 0.015815174820064247, '13': 0.007638624470958826, '14': 0.003316002990804346, '15': 0.0012938182065410258}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.8846, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.636, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3524}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'OAK 6 - 7 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'OAK 6 - 7 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0113, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.706, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'SEA', 'model_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'SEA', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'SEA', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3524, 'winner': 'SEA', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 129.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 129.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 6 - 7 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 6 - 7 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 7-6.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SEA, simulation=SEA, published=SEA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.544.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SEA wins 7-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 6-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-7, final 6-7 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 13.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SEA wins 7-6.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: BB current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Carlos Cortes: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Alika Williams: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Donovan Walton: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Zack Gelof: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, HR current=1 box=0; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; SO: current=8, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Dominic Canzone: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Josh Naylor: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; J.P. Crawford: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Player-703197: AB current=3 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Randy Arozarena: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Jhonny Pereda: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.7948789193549457	4.824637770550312		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6	7	0.544	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, season_quality_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6	7		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6	7		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6	7		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	7		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	6	7
SEA	2	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	7	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	OAK	batting	32	9	1	0	1	5	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		6			3		7	4	4					8.0	7	0	0
current	SEA	batting	32	8	2	0	1	4	4	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	SEA	pitching		7			3		6	0	10					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	OAK	batting	34	7	2	0	3	6	6	0	10	0	0
simulation	OAK	pitching		6			3		7	4	4					8.0	7	34	155
simulation	SEA	batting	30	6	0	0	3	7	7	4	4	0	0
simulation	SEA	pitching		7			3		6	0	10					9.0	6	34	129

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	OAK		CF	Henry Bolte	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	OAK		1B	Jeff McNeil	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	OAK		DH	Max Muncy	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	OAK		LF	Carlos Cortes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	OAK		SS	Alika Williams	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	OAK		2B	Donovan Walton	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	OAK		3B	Zack Gelof	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	OAK		RF	Lawrence Butler	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	OAK		C	Brian Serven	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.333
current	SEA		DH	Cal Raleigh	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	SEA		RF	Dominic Canzone	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	SEA		1B	Josh Naylor	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	SEA		SS	J.P. Crawford	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	SEA		2B	Player-703197	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	SEA		CF	Julio Rodríguez	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	SEA		LF	Randy Arozarena	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	SEA		C	Jhonny Pereda	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SEA		3B	Weston Wilson	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	OAK	1	CF	Henry Bolte	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	OAK	2	1B	Jeff McNeil	4	4	2	0	2	1	3	0	0	0.500
simulation	OAK	3	3B	Zack Gelof	4	4	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	OAK	4	RF	Lawrence Butler	4	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	OAK	5	LF	Carlos Cortes	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0.250
simulation	OAK	6	DH	Max Muncy	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	7	2B	Donovan Walton	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	OAK	8	SS	Alika Williams	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	OAK	9	C	Brian Serven	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SEA	1	LF	Randy Arozarena	4	3	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0.333
simulation	SEA	2	RF	Dominic Canzone	4	4	3	0	1	1	3	0	0	0.750
simulation	SEA	3	CF	Julio Rodríguez	4	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SEA	4	DH	Cal Raleigh	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	SEA	5	SS	J.P. Crawford	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	6	1B	Josh Naylor	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SEA	7	3B	Weston Wilson	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	SEA	8	2B	Player-703197	3	2	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0.500
simulation	SEA	9	C	Jhonny Pereda	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	OAK	1	Gage Jump	Starter	4.2	5	4	4	2	2	2	0	0	7.71	5.15	1.49
current	OAK	3	Hogan Harris	Setup Man	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.38	1.47
current	OAK	6	Elvis Alvarado	Closer	1.2	1	3	3	2	1	1	0	0	16.20	4.21	1.26
current	SEA	1	Bryan Woo	Starter	5.2	4	3	3	0	7	1	0	0	4.76	4.25	1.09
current	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	6.75	3.86	1.13
current	SEA	3	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	1	0	0	18.00	3.34	1.40
current	SEA	4	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.66	1.37
simulation	OAK	1	Gage Jump	Starter	4.2	5	4	4	2	2	2	21	94	7.71	5.15	1.49
simulation	OAK	2	Elvis Alvarado	Closer	1.2	1	3	3	2	1	1	8	32	16.20	4.21	1.26
simulation	OAK	3	Hogan Harris	Setup Man	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	29	0.00	3.38	1.47
simulation	SEA	1	Bryan Woo	Starter	5.2	4	3	3	0	7	1	21	83	4.76	4.25	1.09
simulation	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	1	5	14	6.75	3.86	1.13
simulation	SEA	3	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	3.66	1.37
simulation	SEA	4	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	1	5	19	18.00	3.34	1.40

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
OAK	Gage Jump	Starter	4.2	4	5	2	2	21	94
OAK	Hogan Harris	Setup Man	1.2	0	0	0	1	5	29
OAK	Elvis Alvarado	Closer	1.2	3	1	2	1	8	32
SEA	Bryan Woo	Starter	5.2	3	4	0	7	21	83
SEA	Andrés Muñoz	Closer	1.1	1	1	0	1	5	14
SEA	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	2	0	2	5	19
SEA	José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260906_SF@NYM

20260906_SF@NYM.json • 2026-09-06

SF 4 - NYM 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 99INFO 9

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=4, sim=3).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Juan Soto: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mark Vientos: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nick Morabito: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; A.J. Ewing: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Bo Bichette: H current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Marcus Semien: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=7; HR: current=2, sim=3).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=3; 2B: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=9, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Rafael Devers: HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jonah Cox: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Osleivis Basabe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Grant McCray: SO current=1 box=0; Christian Koss: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Drew Cavanaugh: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Drew Gilbert: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match SF pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=32 matches SF BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=34 matches NYM BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.536 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 326, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5613, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5357, 'published_confidence': 0.516328, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.484.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.516.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.516.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.508/0.690.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 3, NYM 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 4 - NYM 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYM; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-04-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'NYM'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.523578, 'artifact': '20260905_SF@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.546831, 'artifact': '20260904_SF@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYM', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYM', 'final_score_winner': 'NYM', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 6 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 6 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0237, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.106, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8333, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYM', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0295, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_SF@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@NYM.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 19.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 19.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.8, 'home_run_delta': 0.1096, 'away_run_delta': -0.1096, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023104639671639306}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022938628109151326}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.022617289990477303}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.022454780135144146}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02053097243441951}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03963973572003363, '1': 0.06788067220129648, '2': 0.10143194013117275, '3': 0.13225635362116245, '4': 0.15047750136206736, '5': 0.1493962897320471, '6': 0.12942592175391116, '7': 0.09783988545484841, '8': 0.06453923579871003, '9': 0.03714881081196126, '10': 0.018658607426195305, '11': 0.008177616744498862, '12': 0.003127429242094937}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.041474296512703505, '1': 0.07091100629273336, '2': 0.10546295972367777, '3': 0.13643881808629627, '4': 0.15354215389346945, '5': 0.15030346587199986, '6': 0.12798587688326382, '7': 0.09479966181589564, '8': 0.06108058872999838, '9': 0.034233501895415214, '10': 0.01668979978507864, '11': 0.007077870509468031}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2156, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.316, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0295}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 6 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 6 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0237, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.106, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8333, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYM', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0295, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 126.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 126.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 4 - 6 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 4 - 6 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYM, simulation=NYM, published=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.516.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYM wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match SF pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=32 matches SF BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=34 matches NYM BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.536 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 326, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5613, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5357, 'published_confidence': 0.516328, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.484.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.516.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.516.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.508/0.690.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 3, NYM 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 4 - NYM 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYM; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-04-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'NYM'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.523578, 'artifact': '20260905_SF@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'SF', 'home': 'NYM', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.546831, 'artifact': '20260904_SF@NYM.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYM', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYM', 'final_score_winner': 'NYM', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 6 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 6 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0237, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.106, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8333, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYM', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0295, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_SF@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@NYM.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 19.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 19.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.8, 'home_run_delta': 0.1096, 'away_run_delta': -0.1096, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 9.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023104639671639306}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.022938628109151326}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.022617289990477303}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.022454780135144146}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.02053097243441951}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03963973572003363, '1': 0.06788067220129648, '2': 0.10143194013117275, '3': 0.13225635362116245, '4': 0.15047750136206736, '5': 0.1493962897320471, '6': 0.12942592175391116, '7': 0.09783988545484841, '8': 0.06453923579871003, '9': 0.03714881081196126, '10': 0.018658607426195305, '11': 0.008177616744498862, '12': 0.003127429242094937}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.041474296512703505, '1': 0.07091100629273336, '2': 0.10546295972367777, '3': 0.13643881808629627, '4': 0.15354215389346945, '5': 0.15030346587199986, '6': 0.12798587688326382, '7': 0.09479966181589564, '8': 0.06108058872999838, '9': 0.034233501895415214, '10': 0.01668979978507864, '11': 0.007077870509468031}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2156, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.316, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.0295}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 6 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 6 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0237, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.106, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'NYM', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.8333, 'draw_majority_team': 'NYM', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.0295, 'winner': 'NYM', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 126.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 126.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 4 - 6 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 4 - 6 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYM, simulation=NYM, published=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.516.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): NYM wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=4, sim=3).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=0; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Juan Soto: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mark Vientos: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nick Morabito: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; A.J. Ewing: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Bo Bichette: H current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Marcus Semien: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=6, sim=7; HR: current=2, sim=3).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=3; 2B: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=9, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Rafael Devers: HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jonah Cox: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Osleivis Basabe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Grant McCray: SO current=1 box=0; Christian Koss: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Drew Cavanaugh: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Drew Gilbert: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.439107759542447	4.918290078665909		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.516	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	6		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	3
NYM	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	6	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SF	batting	31	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		6			2		6	1	6					8.0	6	0	0
current	NYM	batting	34	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	NYM	pitching		4			1		4	3	4					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	SF	batting	30	3	0	0	1	4	4	3	4	0	1
simulation	SF	pitching		7			3		6	1	6					8.0	6	32	126
simulation	NYM	batting	31	7	0	1	3	6	6	1	6	0	0
simulation	NYM	pitching		3			1		4	3	4					9.0	4	34	136

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	SF		DH	Rafael Devers	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	SF		1B	Bryce Eldridge	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	SF		2B	Jonah Cox	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		3B	Osleivis Basabe	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		LF	Grant McCray	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	SF		SS	Christian Koss	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		C	Drew Cavanaugh	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		CF	Drew Gilbert	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	NYM		DH	Juan Soto	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	NYM		RF	Carson Benge	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		1B	Mark Vientos	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		LF	Nick Morabito	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.000
current	NYM		CF	A.J. Ewing	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		3B	Bo Bichette	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		SS	Francisco Lindor	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	NYM		2B	Marcus Semien	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		C	Luis Torrens	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	SF	1	CF	Drew Gilbert	4	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	0.000
simulation	SF	2	DH	Rafael Devers	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SF	3	1B	Bryce Eldridge	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SF	4	2B	Jonah Cox	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SF	5	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	6	3B	Osleivis Basabe	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	SF	7	LF	Grant McCray	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	8	C	Drew Cavanaugh	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	9	SS	Christian Koss	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	1	SS	Francisco Lindor	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	NYM	2	DH	Juan Soto	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	NYM	3	3B	Bo Bichette	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	4	RF	Carson Benge	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	5	1B	Mark Vientos	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	NYM	6	2B	Marcus Semien	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	7	LF	Nick Morabito	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	8	CF	A.J. Ewing	3	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	NYM	9	C	Luis Torrens	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SF	1	Cesar Perdomo	Starter	4.0	5	6	6	1	4	2	0	0	13.50	2.25	1.00
current	SF	2	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.43	1.52
current	SF	3	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.21	1.21
current	SF	4	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.13	1.33
current	NYM	1	Christian Scott	Starter	5.0	3	3	3	3	3	1	0	0	5.40	3.80	1.31
current	NYM	2	Nathan Lavender	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.63
current	NYM	3	Daniel Duarte	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.08	0.77
current	NYM	4	Kodai Senga	Closer	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	6.75	7.23	1.62
simulation	SF	1	Cesar Perdomo	Starter	4.0	5	5	5	1	4	2	18	69	11.25	2.25	1.00
simulation	SF	2	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	3.13	1.33
simulation	SF	3	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.21	1.21
simulation	SF	4	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	1	6	23	6.75	4.43	1.52
simulation	NYM	1	Christian Scott	Starter	5.0	3	3	3	3	3	1	22	85	5.40	3.80	1.31
simulation	NYM	2	Kodai Senga	Closer	1.1	0	1	1	0	1	0	4	17	6.75	7.23	1.62
simulation	NYM	3	Daniel Duarte	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	2.08	0.77
simulation	NYM	4	Nathan Lavender	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	0.00	0.63

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SF	Cesar Perdomo	Starter	4.0	5	5	1	4	18	69
SF	Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	2	0	1	6	23
SF	Trent Harris	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
SF	Dylan Smith	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17
NYM	Christian Scott	Starter	5.0	3	3	3	3	22	85
NYM	Nathan Lavender	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17
NYM	Daniel Duarte	Setup Man	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17
NYM	Kodai Senga	Closer	1.1	1	0	0	1	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260906_STL@COL

20260906_STL@COL.json • 2026-09-06

STL 5 - COL 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=3; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=7, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Carrigg: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Troy Johnston: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Adael Amador: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Vimael Machín: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Jake McCarthy: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Brett Sullivan: H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Torres: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0; Joshua Baez: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Iván Herrera: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Thomas Saggese: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Leonardo Bernal: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nolan Gorman: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match STL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match STL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=30 matches STL BF=30.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match COL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match COL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match COL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=41 matches COL BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.552 -> 0.547 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.551688, 'sample_size': 335, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5433, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.547494, 'published_confidence': 0.55935, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.559.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.559.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.441.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.738/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 9, COL 3.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 5 - COL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for STL; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'STL', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-08-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'STL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 5, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'COL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.509201, 'artifact': '20260905_STL@COL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'COL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5484979999999999, 'artifact': '20260904_STL@COL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260809', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260809_COL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260808', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.7, 'artifact': '20260808_COL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260807', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260807_COL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'STL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'STL', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'STL', 'final_score_winner': 'STL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'STL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 4 COL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 4 COL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0005, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.186, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'STL', 'model_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'STL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'COL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7287, 'winner': 'STL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_STL@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@COL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': -0.0, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021981970754766933}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021536953359262374}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020796433974236344}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.02055910253920962}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020375417360837828}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04125997595011161, '1': 0.07055136147941002, '2': 0.1049583829122047, '3': 0.13585141494316946, '4': 0.15298417351667457, '5': 0.14988706183313527, '6': 0.12776652750925838, '7': 0.09475569905399357, '8': 0.06114048671795777, '9': 0.034323198084304604, '10': 0.016764164164732323, '11': 0.007123794234677111, '12': 0.002633759600370762}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.032035320817720384, '1': 0.05524178978136913, '2': 0.08428808304801606, '3': 0.11379531584212207, '4': 0.13593846668047416, '5': 0.14368787469620836, '6': 0.13438712035770664, '7': 0.11121284416615333, '8': 0.08143517235311218, '9': 0.05276292518430291, '10': 0.030248614186622787, '11': 0.015344116000767563, '12': 0.006887126123388148, '13': 0.002735230762036364}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.0587, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.116, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.7287}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 4 COL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 4 COL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0005, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.186, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'STL', 'model_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'STL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'COL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7287, 'winner': 'STL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 115.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 115.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 5 - 4 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 5 - 4 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=STL, simulation=STL, published=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.559.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): STL wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match STL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match STL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=30 matches STL BF=30.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match COL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match COL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match COL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=41 matches COL BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.552 -> 0.547 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.551688, 'sample_size': 335, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5433, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.547494, 'published_confidence': 0.55935, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.559.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.559.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.441.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.738/0.900.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 9, COL 3.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 5 - COL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for STL; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'STL', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-08-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'STL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 5, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'COL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.509201, 'artifact': '20260905_STL@COL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'STL', 'home': 'COL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5484979999999999, 'artifact': '20260904_STL@COL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260809', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260809_COL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260808', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.7, 'artifact': '20260808_COL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260807', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'STL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260807_COL@STL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'STL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'STL', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'STL', 'final_score_winner': 'STL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'STL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 4 COL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 4 COL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0005, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.186, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'STL', 'model_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'STL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'COL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7287, 'winner': 'STL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_STL@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@COL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 0.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 0.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0, 'away_run_delta': -0.0, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021981970754766933}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021536953359262374}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020796433974236344}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.02055910253920962}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.020375417360837828}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04125997595011161, '1': 0.07055136147941002, '2': 0.1049583829122047, '3': 0.13585141494316946, '4': 0.15298417351667457, '5': 0.14988706183313527, '6': 0.12776652750925838, '7': 0.09475569905399357, '8': 0.06114048671795777, '9': 0.034323198084304604, '10': 0.016764164164732323, '11': 0.007123794234677111, '12': 0.002633759600370762}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.032035320817720384, '1': 0.05524178978136913, '2': 0.08428808304801606, '3': 0.11379531584212207, '4': 0.13593846668047416, '5': 0.14368787469620836, '6': 0.13438712035770664, '7': 0.11121284416615333, '8': 0.08143517235311218, '9': 0.05276292518430291, '10': 0.030248614186622787, '11': 0.015344116000767563, '12': 0.006887126123388148, '13': 0.002735230762036364}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -1.0587, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.116, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.7287}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 4 COL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 4 COL', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0005, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.186, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'STL', 'model_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner': 'STL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'STL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'COL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7287, 'winner': 'STL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 115.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 115.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 5 - 4 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 5 - 4 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=STL, simulation=STL, published=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.559.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): STL wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=3; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=7, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Carrigg: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Troy Johnston: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Adael Amador: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Vimael Machín: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Jake McCarthy: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Brett Sullivan: H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Torres: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0; Joshua Baez: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Iván Herrera: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Thomas Saggese: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Leonardo Bernal: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nolan Gorman: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.474117400730049	4.017870631743895		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.559	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3	5	9
COL	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	3

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	STL	batting	34	9	1	0	1	5	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		3			1		4	0	8					9.0	4	0	0
current	COL	batting	32	9	2	0	1	5	5	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	COL	pitching		9			0		5	3	7					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	STL	batting	36	9	2	0	0	5	5	3	7	0	2
simulation	STL	pitching		3			1		4	0	8					9.0	4	30	115
simulation	COL	batting	30	3	0	0	1	4	4	0	8	0	0
simulation	COL	pitching		9			0		5	3	7					9.0	5	41	162

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	STL		2B	Bryan Torres	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	STL		RF	Jordan Walker	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	STL		LF	Joshua Baez	0	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	STL		1B	Alec Burleson	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		DH	Iván Herrera	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	STL		SS	Thomas Saggese	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	STL		C	Leonardo Bernal	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	STL		3B	Nolan Gorman	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	STL		CF	Nathan Church	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	COL		CF	Cole Carrigg	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	COL		DH	Mickey Moniak	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		RF	Troy Johnston	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	COL		2B	Adael Amador	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
current	COL		3B	Vimael Machín	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	COL		LF	Jake McCarthy	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	COL		1B	TJ Rumfield	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	COL		C	Brett Sullivan	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	COL		SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	STL	1	2B	Bryan Torres	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.000
simulation	STL	2	DH	Iván Herrera	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	STL	3	1B	Alec Burleson	5	5	2	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	STL	4	RF	Jordan Walker	5	5	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	STL	5	C	Leonardo Bernal	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	STL	6	LF	Joshua Baez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	STL	7	3B	Nolan Gorman	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	STL	8	SS	Thomas Saggese	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	STL	9	CF	Nathan Church	4	3	2	1	0	1	2	0	0	1	0.667
simulation	COL	1	LF	Jake McCarthy	4	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	COL	2	RF	Troy Johnston	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	COL	3	CF	Cole Carrigg	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	COL	4	1B	TJ Rumfield	3	3	1	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	COL	5	DH	Mickey Moniak	3	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.333
simulation	COL	6	2B	Adael Amador	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	COL	7	C	Brett Sullivan	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	COL	8	3B	Vimael Machín	3	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	COL	9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	STL	1	Kyle Leahy	Starter	5.1	2	3	3	0	6	0	0	0	5.06	3.13	1.31
current	STL	2	George Soriano	Setup Man	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	5.40	4.28	1.33
current	STL	3	Riley O'Brien	Closer	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.11	1.25
current	COL	1	Tanner Gordon	Starter	5.0	4	2	2	3	5	0	0	0	3.60	5.18	1.40
current	COL	3	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	4	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	27.00	5.68	1.51
current	COL	4	Jordan Romano	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.90	1.23
current	COL	5	Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	1.2	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.51	1.12
simulation	STL	1	Kyle Leahy	Starter	5.1	2	3	3	0	6	0	18	73	5.06	3.13	1.31
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Closer	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6	18	0.00	4.11	1.25
simulation	STL	3	George Soriano	Setup Man	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	1	6	24	5.40	4.28	1.33
simulation	COL	1	Tanner Gordon	Starter	5.0	4	2	2	3	5	0	24	96	3.60	5.18	1.40
simulation	COL	2	Jordan Romano	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	3.90	1.23
simulation	COL	3	Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	1.2	1	0	0	0	2	0	6	24	0.00	2.51	1.12
simulation	COL	4	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	4	3	3	0	0	0	7	25	27.00	5.68	1.51

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
STL	Kyle Leahy	Starter	5.1	3	2	0	6	18	73
STL	George Soriano	Setup Man	1.2	1	1	0	1	6	24
STL	Riley O'Brien	Closer	2.0	0	0	0	1	6	18
COL	Tanner Gordon	Starter	5.0	2	4	3	5	24	96
COL	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	3	4	0	0	7	25
COL	Jordan Romano	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17
COL	Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	1.2	0	1	0	2	6	24

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260906_TB@TEX

20260906_TB@TEX.json • 2026-09-06

TB 5 - TEX 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=6, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ryan Vilade: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: AB current=5 box=3, SO current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Jonny DeLuca: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jonathan Aranda: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jorge Mateo: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=29; H: current=7, sim=2; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ezequiel Duran: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Justin Foscue: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Nimmo: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Elias Díaz: SO current=1 box=2; Logan O'Hoppe: SO current=1 box=0; Cody Freeman: AB current=3 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match TEX pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match TEX pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=40 matches TEX BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match TB pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match TB pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=33 matches TB BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.527 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 502, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5438, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.52695, 'published_confidence': 0.527394, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.527.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.527.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.473.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.559/0.749.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 9, TEX 2.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 5 - TEX 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.54, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'TEX', 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-09-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'TEX'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.533459, 'artifact': '20260905_TB@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.559934, 'artifact': '20260904_TB@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260903', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.533686, 'artifact': '20260903_TB@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260730', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260730_TEX@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260728', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.59681, 'artifact': '20260728_TEX@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TB', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.021, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.634, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6881, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_TB@TEX.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@TEX.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0115, 'away_run_delta': 0.0115, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025938744825901822}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02439175902557075}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02409278991456637}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023986608373723357}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023780956756736374}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.048472876136283385, '1': 0.08235435659634621, '2': 0.1201800533354016, '3': 0.1506385861619369, '4': 0.16218029797481978, '5': 0.14997469305342576, '6': 0.11912307459493683, '7': 0.08127029405520644, '8': 0.047623991581022825, '9': 0.023970537861358138, '10': 0.010363054685627399, '11': 0.003848183963634769}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.046400163544552585, '1': 0.07897971340022887, '2': 0.11590071791069959, '3': 0.1466328342819337, '4': 0.1599377060580385, '5': 0.15039902707145, '6': 0.12193088369347779, '7': 0.08522302517867712, '8': 0.0513540502678428, '9': 0.02667884278740413, '10': 0.011949061717545418, '11': 0.004613974088149391}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8304, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.424, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.6881}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.021, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.634, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6881, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 128.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 172.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 128.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 172.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 5 - 4 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 5 - 4 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.527.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match TEX pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match TEX pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=40 matches TEX BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match TB pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match TB pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=33 matches TB BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.527 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 502, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5438, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.52695, 'published_confidence': 0.527394, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.527.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.527.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.473.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.559/0.749.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 9, TEX 2.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 5 - TEX 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.54, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'TEX', 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-09-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'TEX'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.533459, 'artifact': '20260905_TB@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.559934, 'artifact': '20260904_TB@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260903', 'away': 'TB', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.533686, 'artifact': '20260903_TB@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260730', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260730_TEX@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260728', 'away': 'TEX', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.59681, 'artifact': '20260728_TEX@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TB', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.021, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.634, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6881, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_TB@TEX.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@TEX.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.4, 'home_run_delta': -0.0115, 'away_run_delta': 0.0115, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.025938744825901822}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02439175902557075}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02409278991456637}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.023986608373723357}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.023780956756736374}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.048472876136283385, '1': 0.08235435659634621, '2': 0.1201800533354016, '3': 0.1506385861619369, '4': 0.16218029797481978, '5': 0.14997469305342576, '6': 0.11912307459493683, '7': 0.08127029405520644, '8': 0.047623991581022825, '9': 0.023970537861358138, '10': 0.010363054685627399, '11': 0.003848183963634769}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.046400163544552585, '1': 0.07897971340022887, '2': 0.11590071791069959, '3': 0.1466328342819337, '4': 0.1599377060580385, '5': 0.15039902707145, '6': 0.12193088369347779, '7': 0.08522302517867712, '8': 0.0513540502678428, '9': 0.02667884278740413, '10': 0.011949061717545418, '11': 0.004613974088149391}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.8304, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.424, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.6881}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.021, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.634, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 6, 'published_winner': 'TB', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.1667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TEX', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6881, 'winner': 'TB', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 128.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 172.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 128.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 172.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 5 - 4 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 5 - 4 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.527.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=6, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ryan Vilade: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: AB current=5 box=3, SO current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Jonny DeLuca: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jonathan Aranda: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jorge Mateo: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=29; H: current=7, sim=2; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ezequiel Duran: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Justin Foscue: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Nimmo: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Elias Díaz: SO current=1 box=2; Logan O'Hoppe: SO current=1 box=0; Cody Freeman: AB current=3 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.932184675521341	3.713144596621439		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.527	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	5	9
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	4	2

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TB	batting	34	8	1	0	1	4	4	2	6	0	0	0	0
current	TB	pitching		2			0		4	4	4					9.0	4	0	0
current	TEX	batting	32	7	2	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	TEX	pitching		9			1		5	3	11					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	TB	batting	36	9	2	0	1	5	5	3	11	0	1
simulation	TB	pitching		2			0		4	4	4					9.0	4	33	128
simulation	TEX	batting	29	2	0	0	0	4	4	4	4	0	0
simulation	TEX	pitching		9			1		5	3	11					9.0	5	40	172

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TB		2B	Ryan Vilade	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		LF	Chandler Simpson	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
current	TB		CF	Jonny DeLuca	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		DH	Yandy Díaz	0	5	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.200
current	TB		3B	Junior Caminero	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	TB		1B	Jonathan Aranda	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		SS	Jorge Mateo	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	TB		C	Nick Fortes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TEX		CF	Ezequiel Duran	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		SS	Corey Seager	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		2B	Justin Foscue	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		LF	Wyatt Langford	0	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		RF	Brandon Nimmo	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		C	Elias Díaz	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	TEX		DH	Logan O'Hoppe	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	TEX		3B	Cody Freeman	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TEX		1B	Jake Burger	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TB	1	DH	Yandy Díaz	5	5	2	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0.400
simulation	TB	2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	TB	3	3B	Junior Caminero	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	TB	4	2B	Ryan Vilade	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	TB	5	LF	Chandler Simpson	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	TB	6	CF	Jonny DeLuca	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	TB	7	SS	Jorge Mateo	4	3	1	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	TB	8	RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	TB	9	C	Nick Fortes	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	TEX	1	CF	Ezequiel Duran	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	2	SS	Corey Seager	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	3	2B	Justin Foscue	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	5	LF	Wyatt Langford	4	4	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	6	1B	Jake Burger	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	7	DH	Logan O'Hoppe	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	8	C	Elias Díaz	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	9	3B	Cody Freeman	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TB	1	Ian Seymour	Starter	5.1	0	3	3	2	4	0	0	0	5.06	3.81	1.09
current	TB	2	Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	6.75	2.44	0.90
current	TB	3	Bryan Baker	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.47	0.87
current	TB	4	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.18	0.85
current	TEX	1	MacKenzie Gore	Starter	5.1	2	2	2	2	6	1	0	0	3.38	4.31	1.29
current	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.44	0.71
current	TEX	3	Jakob Junis	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	2.79	1.16
current	TEX	4	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.21	1.30
current	TEX	5	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	4	3	3	1	2	0	0	0	40.50	2.87	1.44
simulation	TB	1	Ian Seymour	Starter	5.1	0	3	3	2	4	0	18	75	5.06	3.81	1.09
simulation	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	21	0.00	1.47	0.87
simulation	TB	3	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	2.18	0.85
simulation	TB	4	Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	1	1	1	0	0	6	16	6.75	2.44	0.90
simulation	TEX	1	MacKenzie Gore	Starter	5.1	2	2	2	2	6	1	21	93	3.38	4.31	1.29
simulation	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Closer	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	23	0.00	1.44	0.71
simulation	TEX	3	Jakob Junis	Setup Man	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	0	4	16	0.00	2.79	1.16
simulation	TEX	4	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	4	3	3	1	2	0	7	24	40.50	2.87	1.44
simulation	TEX	5	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	3.21	1.30

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TB	Ian Seymour	Starter	5.1	3	0	2	4	18	75
TB	Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	1	1	0	6	16
TB	Bryan Baker	Closer	1.1	0	0	1	0	5	21
TB	Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
TEX	MacKenzie Gore	Starter	5.1	2	2	2	6	21	93
TEX	Jacob Latz	Closer	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	23
TEX	Jakob Junis	Setup Man	1.0	0	1	0	3	4	16
TEX	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
TEX	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	3	4	1	2	7	24

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260906_TOR@KC

20260906_TOR@KC.json • 2026-09-06

TOR 5 - KC 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=9).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: John Rave: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Vinnie Pasquantino: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=5 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Josh Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Luke Maile: SO current=1 box=0; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jesús Sánchez: AB current=3 box=5, SO current=1 box=2; Sean Keys: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brett Bateman: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Nathan Lukes: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Josh Smith: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Brandon Valenzuela: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match TOR pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match TOR pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=34 matches TOR BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match KC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match KC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=40 matches KC BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.689 -> 0.618 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.689163, 'sample_size': 499, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5471, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.618132, 'published_confidence': 0.537096, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.537.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.537.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.463.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.559/0.749.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 9, KC 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 5 - KC 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TOR.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TOR; cap=0.57, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.57, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 7, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-08-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 13, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -11, 'winner': 'KC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'TOR', 'home': 'KC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5700000000000001, 'artifact': '20260905_TOR@KC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'TOR', 'home': 'KC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.557056, 'artifact': '20260904_TOR@KC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260827', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 11, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.548683, 'artifact': '20260827_KC@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260826', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.588213, 'artifact': '20260826_KC@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260825', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.588185, 'artifact': '20260825_KC@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TOR', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'KC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TOR', 'final_score_winner': 'TOR', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0596, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.842, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6043, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_TOR@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@KC.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0115, 'away_run_delta': -0.0115, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 11.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.022676043788154236}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021494547167362467}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.021374432340296737}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021316508903071064}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020660994170893676}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.045415780370029336, '1': 0.07737274922716282, '2': 0.11384506714731592, '3': 0.14467228735562768, '4': 0.15878205549422242, '5': 0.15050898706300006, '6': 0.12321636356350173, '7': 0.08712028418950628, '8': 0.05320042733207803, '9': 0.028057947580315122, '10': 0.012780316809860444, '11': 0.005027733867380156}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.031280291225872815, '1': 0.053978102352104214, '2': 0.08253545176512095, '3': 0.11182516525988184, '4': 0.1342501130667546, '5': 0.14281238341179772, '6': 0.1346149114505857, '7': 0.11243371691004439, '8': 0.08321010344903924, '9': 0.05456719772645809, '10': 0.03170759748567225, '11': 0.01632567388564647, '12': 0.007448262826472395, '13': 0.0030110291845493057}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.514, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.772, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.6043}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0596, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.842, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6043, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 177.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 177.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 5 - 4 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 5 - 4 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TOR, simulation=TOR, published=TOR.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.537.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TOR wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TOR wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match TOR pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match TOR pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=34 matches TOR BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match KC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match KC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=40 matches KC BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.689 -> 0.618 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.689163, 'sample_size': 499, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5471, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.618132, 'published_confidence': 0.537096, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.537.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.537.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.463.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.559/0.749.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 9, KC 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 5 - KC 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TOR.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TOR; cap=0.57, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.57, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 7, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-08-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 13, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -11, 'winner': 'KC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'TOR', 'home': 'KC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5700000000000001, 'artifact': '20260905_TOR@KC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'TOR', 'home': 'KC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.557056, 'artifact': '20260904_TOR@KC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260827', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 11, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.548683, 'artifact': '20260827_KC@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260826', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.588213, 'artifact': '20260826_KC@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260825', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'TOR', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.588185, 'artifact': '20260825_KC@TOR.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TOR', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'KC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TOR', 'final_score_winner': 'TOR', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0596, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.842, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6043, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_TOR@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@KC.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 2.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 2.0, 'home_average_margin': 0.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0115, 'away_run_delta': -0.0115, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -7.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 11.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.022676043788154236}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021494547167362467}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 6, 'probability': 0.021374432340296737}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021316508903071064}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.020660994170893676}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.045415780370029336, '1': 0.07737274922716282, '2': 0.11384506714731592, '3': 0.14467228735562768, '4': 0.15878205549422242, '5': 0.15050898706300006, '6': 0.12321636356350173, '7': 0.08712028418950628, '8': 0.05320042733207803, '9': 0.028057947580315122, '10': 0.012780316809860444, '11': 0.005027733867380156}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.031280291225872815, '1': 0.053978102352104214, '2': 0.08253545176512095, '3': 0.11182516525988184, '4': 0.1342501130667546, '5': 0.14281238341179772, '6': 0.1346149114505857, '7': 0.11243371691004439, '8': 0.08321010344903924, '9': 0.05456719772645809, '10': 0.03170759748567225, '11': 0.01632567388564647, '12': 0.007448262826472395, '13': 0.0030110291845493057}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.514, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.772, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.6043}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0596, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.842, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'TOR', 'model_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'TOR', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6667, 'draw_majority_team': 'TOR', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6043, 'winner': 'TOR', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 177.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 177.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 5 - 4 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 5 - 4 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TOR, simulation=TOR, published=TOR.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.537.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): TOR wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TOR wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=9).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=0; RBI: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: John Rave: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Vinnie Pasquantino: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=5 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Josh Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Luke Maile: SO current=1 box=0; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jesús Sánchez: AB current=3 box=5, SO current=1 box=2; Sean Keys: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brett Bateman: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Nathan Lukes: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Josh Smith: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Brandon Valenzuela: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.103054844566098	4.651407687398266		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.537	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	5	9
KC	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	4	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TOR	batting	32	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	TOR	pitching		5			1		4	2	7					9.0	4	0	0
current	KC	batting	31	7	2	0	1	3	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		7			2		5	3	8					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	TOR	batting	36	9	4	0	2	5	5	3	8	0	1
simulation	TOR	pitching		5			1		4	2	7					9.0	4	34	135
simulation	KC	batting	32	5	0	0	1	4	4	2	7	0	0
simulation	KC	pitching		9			2		5	3	8					9.0	5	40	177

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TOR		DH	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		LF	Jesús Sánchez	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TOR		1B	Sean Keys	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	TOR		CF	Brett Bateman	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.200
current	TOR		RF	Nathan Lukes	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		2B	Josh Smith	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	TOR		C	Brandon Valenzuela	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	TOR		SS	Andrés Giménez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		RF	John Rave	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	KC		2B	Nick Loftin	0	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	KC		SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	KC		DH	Salvador Perez	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		3B	Josh Rojas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	KC		C	Luke Maile	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	KC		LF	Isaac Collins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	KC		CF	Kyle Isbel	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	1	CF	Brett Bateman	5	5	2	1	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	TOR	2	RF	Nathan Lukes	5	4	2	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	TOR	3	DH	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	4	LF	Jesús Sánchez	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	TOR	5	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	6	1B	Sean Keys	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	7	2B	Josh Smith	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TOR	8	SS	Andrés Giménez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TOR	9	C	Brandon Valenzuela	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	KC	1	RF	John Rave	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	KC	2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	KC	3	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	KC	4	DH	Salvador Perez	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	KC	5	3B	Josh Rojas	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	KC	6	2B	Nick Loftin	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	KC	7	LF	Isaac Collins	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	8	C	Luke Maile	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	KC	9	CF	Kyle Isbel	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TOR	1	Spencer Arrighetti	Starter	5.0	4	4	4	2	4	1	0	0	7.20	4.82	1.34
current	TOR	2	Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.84	1.07
current	TOR	3	Louis Varland	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.15	0.98
current	TOR	4	Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.84	1.19
current	KC	1	Randy Dobnak	Starter	6.0	6	4	4	2	5	1	0	0	6.00	2.65	1.39
current	KC	2	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.80	1.20
current	KC	3	Nate Pearson	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.19	1.16
current	KC	4	Steven Cruz	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	4.27	1.23
simulation	TOR	1	Spencer Arrighetti	Starter	5.0	4	4	4	2	4	1	21	83	7.20	4.82	1.34
simulation	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	1.15	0.98
simulation	TOR	3	Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	1.84	1.19
simulation	TOR	4	Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	6	22	0.00	2.84	1.07
simulation	KC	1	Randy Dobnak	Starter	6.0	6	3	3	2	5	1	27	114	4.50	2.65	1.39
simulation	KC	2	Steven Cruz	Closer	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	4	16	9.00	4.27	1.23
simulation	KC	3	Nate Pearson	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.19	1.16
simulation	KC	4	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	5	30	9.00	3.80	1.20

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TOR	Spencer Arrighetti	Starter	5.0	4	4	2	4	21	83
TOR	Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.2	0	1	0	1	6	22
TOR	Louis Varland	Closer	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
TOR	Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
KC	Randy Dobnak	Starter	6.0	3	6	2	5	27	114
KC	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	30
KC	Nate Pearson	Setup Man	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
KC	Steven Cruz	Closer	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260906_WAS@LAD

20260906_WAS@LAD.json • 2026-09-06

WAS 4 - LAD 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=8; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Edman: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Will Smith: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Enrique Hernández: H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 2B: current=2, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=6; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Daylen Lile: AB current=4 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Andrés Chaparro: AB current=3 box=5; Brady House: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Nasim Nuñez: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Dylan Crews: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Harry Ford: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match WAS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match WAS pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=31 matches WAS BF=31.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match LAD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match LAD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=41 matches LAD BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.552 -> 0.545 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.552266, 'sample_size': 506, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5375, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.544883, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.519/0.701.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 8, LAD 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 4 - LAD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'opponent_team': 'LAD', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-04-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.573431, 'artifact': '20260905_WAS@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.561498, 'artifact': '20260904_WAS@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'WAS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'WAS 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'WAS 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0821, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.414, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7893, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_WAS@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 17.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 17.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0981, 'away_run_delta': -0.0981, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02299759708152208}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02167060895805271}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021614182866252555}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021514453405579007}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021169468566193183}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03156296391190902, '1': 0.05445140161780358, '2': 0.08319272750280843, '3': 0.11256585592988398, '4': 0.1348879045857485, '5': 0.14314769311921488, '6': 0.13453668246265918, '7': 0.11198041948975336, '8': 0.08254456461100346, '9': 0.05388648894900587, '10': 0.03115417886337615, '11': 0.015951361069992925, '12': 0.0072330954741483735, '13': 0.002904662412692213}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04703922872533263, '1': 0.08002149201669828, '2': 0.11722721512575994, '3': 0.14788550276226267, '4': 0.16065642819943624, '5': 0.15029549507068582, '6': 0.12107909614645192, '7': 0.08399776453941023, '8': 0.05018126868954072, '9': 0.02581611557933221, '10': 0.011437089177339209, '11': 0.004363303967750139}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.1799, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.064, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.7893}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'WAS 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'WAS 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0821, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.414, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7893, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 175.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 175.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 4 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 4 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match WAS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match WAS pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=31 matches WAS BF=31.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match LAD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match LAD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=41 matches LAD BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.552 -> 0.545 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.552266, 'sample_size': 506, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5375, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.544883, 'published_confidence': 0.53, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.519/0.701.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 8, LAD 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 4 - LAD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'latest-series evidence cleared the reversal bar; confidence capped and runs shifted, winner unchanged by design'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'opponent_team': 'LAD', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-09-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-09-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-04-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260905', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.573431, 'artifact': '20260905_WAS@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260904', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.561498, 'artifact': '20260904_WAS@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'WAS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'WAS 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'WAS 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0821, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.414, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7893, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-09-06.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260906_WAS@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@LAD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 17.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 17.0, 'home_average_margin': 3.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0981, 'away_run_delta': -0.0981, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 7.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02299759708152208}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02167060895805271}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.021614182866252555}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.021514453405579007}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.021169468566193183}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.03156296391190902, '1': 0.05445140161780358, '2': 0.08319272750280843, '3': 0.11256585592988398, '4': 0.1348879045857485, '5': 0.14314769311921488, '6': 0.13453668246265918, '7': 0.11198041948975336, '8': 0.08254456461100346, '9': 0.05388648894900587, '10': 0.03115417886337615, '11': 0.015951361069992925, '12': 0.0072330954741483735, '13': 0.002904662412692213}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04703922872533263, '1': 0.08002149201669828, '2': 0.11722721512575994, '3': 0.14788550276226267, '4': 0.16065642819943624, '5': 0.15029549507068582, '6': 0.12107909614645192, '7': 0.08399776453941023, '8': 0.05018126868954072, '9': 0.02581611557933221, '10': 0.011437089177339209, '11': 0.004363303967750139}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.1799, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.064, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.7893}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'WAS 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'WAS 4 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0821, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.414, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'LAD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'LAD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7893, 'winner': 'LAD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 175.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 175.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 4 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 4 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=8; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Edman: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Will Smith: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Enrique Hernández: H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 2B: current=2, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=6; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Daylen Lile: AB current=4 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Andrés Chaparro: AB current=3 box=5; Brady House: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Nasim Nuñez: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Dylan Crews: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Harry Ford: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.346702060006381	4.071008333179619		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail, season_quality_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	4	8
LAD	0	1	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	5	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	WAS	batting	33	8	2	0	1	4	5	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	WAS	pitching		6			1		5	1	8					8.0	5	0	0
current	LAD	batting	33	8	2	0	1	5	5	4	7	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		8			0		4	6	9					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	WAS	batting	34	8	1	1	0	4	4	6	9	1	0
simulation	WAS	pitching		6			1		5	1	8					8.0	5	31	131
simulation	LAD	batting	29	6	3	1	1	5	5	1	8	1	0
simulation	LAD	pitching		8			0		4	6	9					9.0	4	41	175

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	WAS		DH	James Wood	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	WAS		2B	CJ Abrams	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	WAS		LF	Daylen Lile	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		1B	Andrés Chaparro	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	WAS		3B	Brady House	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		SS	Nasim Nuñez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	WAS		RF	Dylan Crews	0	5	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	WAS		C	Harry Ford	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	WAS		CF	Jacob Young	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		CF	Tommy Edman	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		C	Will Smith	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.000
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		DH	Max Muncy	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	LAD		SS	Mookie Betts	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		3B	Enrique Hernández	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		2B	Miguel Rojas	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	WAS	1	DH	James Wood	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	2	RF	Dylan Crews	5	5	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	0.400
simulation	WAS	3	1B	Andrés Chaparro	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	WAS	4	2B	CJ Abrams	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	WAS	5	3B	Brady House	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.400
simulation	WAS	6	LF	Daylen Lile	4	3	1	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	WAS	7	C	Harry Ford	4	2	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	1.000
simulation	WAS	8	CF	Jacob Young	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	WAS	9	SS	Nasim Nuñez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	1	CF	Tommy Edman	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	2	SS	Mookie Betts	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	LAD	3	C	Will Smith	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	4	1B	Freddie Freeman	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	0.250
simulation	LAD	5	LF	Teoscar Hernández	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	LAD	6	RF	Kyle Tucker	3	3	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	LAD	7	2B	Miguel Rojas	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	8	DH	Max Muncy	3	2	1	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	0.500
simulation	LAD	9	3B	Enrique Hernández	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	WAS	1	Andrew Alvarez	Starter	5.0	3	2	2	1	5	0	0	0	3.60	3.47	1.31
current	WAS	2	Erik Tolman	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.23	0.95
current	WAS	3	Orlando Ribalta	Setup Man	1.0	3	3	3	0	0	1	0	0	27.00	3.77	1.21
current	WAS	5	Clayton Beeter	Closer	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.11	1.35
current	LAD	1	Justin Wrobleski	Starter	5.1	2	1	1	4	7	0	0	0	1.69	3.65	1.11
current	LAD	2	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.61	0.97
current	LAD	3	Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	18.00	2.70	0.95
current	LAD	4	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.1	3	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	6.75	2.67	0.98
simulation	WAS	1	Andrew Alvarez	Starter	5.0	3	2	2	1	5	0	19	84	3.60	3.47	1.31
simulation	WAS	2	Clayton Beeter	Closer	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	8	0.00	4.11	1.35
simulation	WAS	3	Orlando Ribalta	Setup Man	1.0	3	3	3	0	0	1	6	22	27.00	3.77	1.21
simulation	WAS	4	Erik Tolman	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	1.23	0.95
simulation	LAD	1	Justin Wrobleski	Starter	5.1	2	1	1	4	7	0	22	101	1.69	3.65	1.11
simulation	LAD	2	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.1	3	1	1	1	0	0	8	30	6.75	2.67	0.98
simulation	LAD	3	Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	0	6	23	18.00	2.70	0.95
simulation	LAD	4	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	5	21	0.00	2.61	0.97

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
WAS	Andrew Alvarez	Starter	5.0	2	3	1	5	19	84
WAS	Erik Tolman	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	17
WAS	Orlando Ribalta	Setup Man	1.0	3	3	0	0	6	22
WAS	Clayton Beeter	Closer	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	8
LAD	Justin Wrobleski	Starter	5.1	1	2	4	7	22	101
LAD	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.1	0	1	0	2	5	21
LAD	Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	1.0	2	2	1	0	6	23
LAD	Tanner Scott	Closer	1.1	1	3	1	0	8	30

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.