MLB JSON Audit Report

Generated 2026-08-30 19:36:59. This single HTML file audits only the selected game date. The default view focuses on actionable problems first; detailed checks, passed checks, batting, pitching, pitch counts, and the rule catalog stay available in collapsible sections.

0Critical
0Error
1Warn
100Pass
8Info

20260830_CIN@CHC

20260830_CIN@CHC.json • 2026-08-30

CIN 4 - CHC 7
WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 100INFO 8
Action summary - what to fix first
LevelProblem group / fixCountTeamsExample
WARNPitch count summary differs by pitcher
Pitch-count rows disagree with individual pitching box-score rows. Recalculate pitch_count_summary from the same final pitcher ledger used by box_score.pitching.
0C / 0E / 1WCINCIN pitch_count row for Chase Burns differs from pitching box score: hits_allowed/H: summary=3, box=2; batters_faced/BF: summary=21, box=20.
Problems table - exact rows
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
WARNpitch_countsimulationCINChase BurnsPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHCIN pitch_count row for Chase Burns differs from pitching box score: hits_allowed/H: summary=3, box=2; batters_faced/BF: summary=21, box=20.
All findings - complete audit trail
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
WARNpitch_countsimulationCINChase BurnsPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHCIN pitch_count row for Chase Burns differs from pitching box score: hits_allowed/H: summary=3, box=2; batters_faced/BF: summary=21, box=20.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentCHCCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONCHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentCINCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONCIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCHCCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=38, sim=29; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=2, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=5).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCHCCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXCHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Michael Busch: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=6 box=4, H current=2 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=2 box=0; Alex Bregman: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Conforto: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCINCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=3, sim=4).New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCINCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCINCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXCIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Stephenson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Dane Myers: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Héctor Rodríguez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Edwin Arroyo: R current=0 box=1; JJ Bleday: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASSbattingcurrentCHCBATTING_REALISMcurrent:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentCINBATTING_REALISMcurrent:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationCHCBATTING_REALISMsimulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationCINBATTING_REALISMsimulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentCHCBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentCINBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationCHCBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationCINBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHCBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:CHC batting walks match CIN pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHCBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:CHC batting home runs match CIN pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHCBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:CHC batting hits match CIN pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHCBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:CHC batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHCPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:CHC PA=31 matches CIN BF=31.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHCRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCINBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:CIN batting walks match CHC pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCINBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:CIN batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCINBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:CIN batting hits match CHC pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCINBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:CIN batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCINPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:CIN PA=35 matches CHC BF=35.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCINRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.899 -> 0.726 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.898664, 'sample_size': 181, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5525, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.725582, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaCHCCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHCCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPECHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHCCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKCHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHCCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTCHC current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHCCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDCHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCINCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPECIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCINCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKCIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCINCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTCIN current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCINCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDCIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.551/0.735.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_OUTSInning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: CIN 6, CHC 5.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: CIN 4 - CHC 7.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 14, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 17, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 12, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-08-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-07-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 5, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260829', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 12, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260829_CIN@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260828', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260828_CIN@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260712', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260712_CHC@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260711', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260711_CHC@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260710', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260710_CHC@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'CIN 4 - 7 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'CIN 4 - 7 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.037, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.702, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'CIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4567, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-08-30.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename matches game_id: 20260830_CIN@CHC.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: CIN@CHC.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 12.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 12.0, 'home_average_margin': 2.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0692, 'away_run_delta': -0.0692, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 12.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01870815843104982}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018192653016516704}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017678830740295297}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017678262481904662}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017191135966350128}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.013395990139909096, '1': 0.02354113208833838, '2': 0.03801608282328444, '3': 0.05641503763274778, '4': 0.07693250881715828, '5': 0.09640785148904515, '6': 0.11102030334721869, '7': 0.11748432091433017, '8': 0.11424702720756073, '9': 0.10209333753943811, '10': 0.08383732079266352, '11': 0.06326519871608058, '12': 0.04387123477962824, '13': 0.027956470158318973, '14': 0.01637089071150214, '15': 0.008809469959603109, '16': 0.004356269552346335, '17': 0.0019795533308261974}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.045799515980454696, '1': 0.07799950758636129, '2': 0.11464819592951152, '3': 0.1454410431954462, '4': 0.1592396184056922, '5': 0.15047337673931563, '6': 0.12271922312585312, '7': 0.08637934751116014, '8': 0.0524749015612578, '9': 0.027512986652159444, '10': 0.012449967963962883, '11': 0.0048623153488250555}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.9007, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.632, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.4567}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'CIN 4 - 7 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'CIN 4 - 7 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.037, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.702, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'CIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4567, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 118.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCHCPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHCHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCHCPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHCHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCINPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHCIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 118.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingcurrentCHCPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentCHCSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentCINPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentCINSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationCHCPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationCHCSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationCINPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationCINSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCHCPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCHCPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCINPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCINPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCHCPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCHCPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCINPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCINPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 4 - 7 CHC.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: CIN 4 - 7 CHC.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 7-4.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 7-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: CHC wins 4-7.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 4-7.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 4-7, final 4-7 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: CHC wins 7-4.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCHCRECENT_FORM_RANGECHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCHCTEAM_RECENT_RECORDCHC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCINRECENT_FORM_RANGECIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCINTEAM_RECENT_RECORDCIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
Passed checks
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
PASSbattingcurrentCHCBATTING_REALISMcurrent:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentCINBATTING_REALISMcurrent:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationCHCBATTING_REALISMsimulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationCINBATTING_REALISMsimulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentCHCBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentCINBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationCHCBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationCINBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHCBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:CHC batting walks match CIN pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHCBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:CHC batting home runs match CIN pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHCBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:CHC batting hits match CIN pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHCBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:CHC batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHCPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:CHC PA=31 matches CIN BF=31.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCHCRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCINBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:CIN batting walks match CHC pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCINBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:CIN batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCINBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:CIN batting hits match CHC pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCINBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:CIN batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCINPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:CIN PA=35 matches CHC BF=35.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCINRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.899 -> 0.726 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.898664, 'sample_size': 181, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5525, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.725582, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaCHCCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHCCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPECHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHCCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKCHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHCCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTCHC current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCHCCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDCHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCINCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPECIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCINCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKCIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCINCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTCIN current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCINCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDCIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.551/0.735.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_OUTSInning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: CIN 6, CHC 5.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: CIN 4 - CHC 7.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 5 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 14, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 17, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 12, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-08-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-07-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 5, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260829', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 12, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260829_CIN@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260828', 'away': 'CIN', 'home': 'CHC', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.56, 'artifact': '20260828_CIN@CHC.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260712', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260712_CHC@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260711', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260711_CHC@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260710', 'away': 'CHC', 'home': 'CIN', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260710_CHC@CIN.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'flip_authority': 'caps_confidence_and_shifts_runs_only', 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'CIN 4 - 7 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'CIN 4 - 7 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.037, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.702, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'CIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4567, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-08-30.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename matches game_id: 20260830_CIN@CHC.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: CIN@CHC.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 12.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 12.0, 'home_average_margin': 2.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0692, 'away_run_delta': -0.0692, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 12.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.01870815843104982}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.018192653016516704}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.017678830740295297}, {'home_runs': 7, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017678262481904662}, {'home_runs': 8, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.017191135966350128}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.013395990139909096, '1': 0.02354113208833838, '2': 0.03801608282328444, '3': 0.05641503763274778, '4': 0.07693250881715828, '5': 0.09640785148904515, '6': 0.11102030334721869, '7': 0.11748432091433017, '8': 0.11424702720756073, '9': 0.10209333753943811, '10': 0.08383732079266352, '11': 0.06326519871608058, '12': 0.04387123477962824, '13': 0.027956470158318973, '14': 0.01637089071150214, '15': 0.008809469959603109, '16': 0.004356269552346335, '17': 0.0019795533308261974}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.045799515980454696, '1': 0.07799950758636129, '2': 0.11464819592951152, '3': 0.1454410431954462, '4': 0.1592396184056922, '5': 0.15047337673931563, '6': 0.12271922312585312, '7': 0.08637934751116014, '8': 0.0524749015612578, '9': 0.027512986652159444, '10': 0.012449967963962883, '11': 0.0048623153488250555}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 1.9007, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.632, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 1.4567}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'CIN 4 - 7 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'CIN 4 - 7 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.037, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.702, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'winner': 'CHC', 'model_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 3, 'published_winner': 'CHC', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.3333, 'draw_majority_team': 'CIN', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': False, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4567, 'winner': 'CHC', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 7, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 118.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCHCPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHCHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCHCPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHCHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCINPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHCIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 118.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 8 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingcurrentCHCPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentCHCSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentCINPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentCINSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationCHCPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationCHCSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationCINPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationCINSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCHCPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCHCPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCINPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCINPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCHCPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCHCPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCINPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCINPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 4 - 7 CHC.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: CIN 4 - 7 CHC.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 7-4.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): CHC wins 7-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: CHC wins 4-7.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 4-7.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 4-7, final 4-7 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: CHC wins 7-4.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCHCRECENT_FORM_RANGECHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCHCTEAM_RECENT_RECORDCHC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCINRECENT_FORM_RANGECIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCINTEAM_RECENT_RECORDCIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
Info/context findings
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentCHCCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONCHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentCINCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONCIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCHCCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=38, sim=29; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=2, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=5).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCHCCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXCHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Michael Busch: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=6 box=4, H current=2 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=2 box=0; Alex Bregman: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Conforto: H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCINCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (BB: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=3, sim=4).New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCINCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCINCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXCIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Stephenson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Dane Myers: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Héctor Rodríguez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Edwin Arroyo: R current=0 box=1; JJ Bleday: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
Score evolution
stepaway_runshome_runsconfidencedescription
historical_ml4.2471623171237494.464241424487028Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied44Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction470.560Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment47Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review47Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target47Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result47Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Inning-by-inning linescore
team123456789RH
CIN00300000146
CHC03200020075
Team totals - current + final simulation
srcteamtypePAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBSOSFHBPSBCSIPERBFPitches
currentCINbatting33810144490000
currentCINpitching537158.0700
currentCHCbatting38920275480000
currentCHCpitching614179.0400
simulationCINbatting336201441701
simulationCINpitching547258.0731118
simulationCHCbatting295004772500
simulationCHCpitching614179.0435135
Batting lines - current + final simulation
srcteamorderposnamePAABH2B3BHRRRBIBBSOHBPAVG
currentCINCTyler Stephenson041000010100.250
currentCINDHEugenio Suárez041000011200.250
currentCINCFDane Myers041000001100.250
currentCINSSElly De La Cruz041100101100.250
currentCIN1BSal Stewart041001110100.250
currentCINRFHéctor Rodríguez031000100000.333
currentCIN3BEdwin Arroyo031000000100.333
currentCINLFJJ Bleday041000111100.250
currentCIN2BMatt McLain030000000100.000
currentCHC1BMichael Busch051000011100.200
currentCHCRFSeiya Suzuki051100111100.200
currentCHCSSNico Hoerner041000000000.250
currentCHCCFPete Crow-Armstrong062001121100.333
currentCHC3BAlex Bregman051001110100.200
currentCHCLFIan Happ041100111100.250
currentCHCDHMichael Conforto030000000100.000
currentCHC2BPedro Ramirez031000110100.333
currentCHCCMiguel Amaya031000000100.333
simulationCIN1CFDane Myers440000000000.000
simulationCIN2SSElly De La Cruz441000100000.250
simulationCIN31BSal Stewart442100110000.500
simulationCIN4CTyler Stephenson430000000010.000
simulationCIN5DHEugenio Suárez442101130100.500
simulationCIN6LFJJ Bleday430000001200.000
simulationCIN72BMatt McLain440000000100.000
simulationCIN8RFHéctor Rodríguez440000000200.000
simulationCIN93BEdwin Arroyo331000100100.333
simulationCHC1CFPete Crow-Armstrong440000100100.000
simulationCHC2RFSeiya Suzuki440000000000.000
simulationCHC31BMichael Busch430000101200.000
simulationCHC43BAlex Bregman442002130100.500
simulationCHC5LFIan Happ331000100000.333
simulationCHC6SSNico Hoerner330000000000.000
simulationCHC72BPedro Ramirez320000101100.000
simulationCHC8DHMichael Conforto331001120000.333
simulationCHC9CMiguel Amaya331001120000.333
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
srcteamordernameroleIPHRERBBSOHRBFPitchessim_ERAseason_ERAseason_WHIP
currentCIN1Chase BurnsStarter5.2344152006.352.771.15
currentCIN2Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.0000000000.002.671.33
currentCIN3Tejay AntoneSetup Man1.0000000000.003.301.08
currentCIN4Emilio PagánCloser0.12330010081.003.901.05
currentCHC1Shota ImanagaStarter5.1533140005.063.781.12
currentCHC2Jacob WebbCloser1.2000010000.002.911.23
currentCHC3Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.0111021009.003.981.26
currentCHC4Trent ThorntonSetup Man1.0000000000.003.121.13
simulationCIN1Chase BurnsStarter5.223315220844.762.771.15
simulationCIN2Emilio PagánCloser0.122200131054.003.901.05
simulationCIN3Tejay AntoneSetup Man1.00000003130.003.301.08
simulationCIN4Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.012210151118.002.671.33
simulationCHC1Shota ImanagaStarter5.153314023865.063.781.12
simulationCHC2Jacob WebbCloser1.20000105200.002.911.23
simulationCHC3Trent ThorntonSetup Man1.00000003130.003.121.13
simulationCHC4Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.01110214169.003.981.26
Pitch count summary
teampitcherroleIPRHBBSOBFPitches
CINChase BurnsStarter5.233152184
CINBrock BurkeMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.02110511
CINTejay AntoneSetup Man1.00000313
CINEmilio PagánCloser0.12200310
CHCShota ImanagaStarter5.135142386
CHCJacob WebbCloser1.20001520
CHCRyan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.01102416
CHCTrent ThorntonSetup Man1.00000313
Audit rule catalog
rulestatuscriticalerrorwarningpassdescription
BATTING_REALISMgood0004Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUMgood0004Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHgood0002Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHgood0002Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCHgood0002Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHgood0002Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDgood0001Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGEgood0005Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXinfo0001Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEgood0002Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKgood0002Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTgood0002Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONinfo0000Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXinfo0000Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDgood0002Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgood0001game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSEgood0001Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHgood0001Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCHgood0001Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICYgood0001One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgood0001game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCgood0001Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGEgood0001Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNTgood0001Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTSgood0001Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMSgood0001Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCEgood0001Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITSgood0001Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNSgood0001Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSISgood0003Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILgood0001Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSgood0004H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCHgood0002Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSIONgood0001Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTgood0001Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSgood0001Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISMgood0004Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUMgood0008Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHwarning0011Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHgood0004Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITYgood0001Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHgood0003prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGEgood0004Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONinfo0000When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETEgood0001Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORTnot triggered0000Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINALgood0002Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTgood0001Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIEgood0001Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHgood0001score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDERgood0001Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACEgood0001Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENTgood0004Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYSnot triggered0000Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFTgood0001Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORDgood0002team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCHgood0001total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCHgood0001winner field agrees with the final score.