MLB JSON Audit Report

Generated 2026-08-23 19:41:03. This single HTML file audits only the selected game date. The default view focuses on actionable problems first; detailed checks, passed checks, batting, pitching, pitch counts, and the rule catalog stay available in collapsible sections.

0Critical
0Error
0Warn
102Pass
7Info

20260823_ATL@MIL

20260823_ATL@MIL.json • 2026-08-23

ATL 3 - MIL 5
PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 102INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
All findings - complete audit trail
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONMIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaATLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=3; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=3).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaATLCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=6 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Lane Thomas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Ozzie Albies: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2; Sean Murphy: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Austin Riley: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMILCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=29; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMILCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXMIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Bauers: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; William Contreras: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brice Turang: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Andrew Vaughn: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Garrett Mitchell: H current=1 box=0; David Hamilton: H current=1 box=0; Christian Yelich: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASSbattingcurrentATLBATTING_REALISMcurrent:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentMILBATTING_REALISMcurrent:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationATLBATTING_REALISMsimulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationMILBATTING_REALISMsimulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentATLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentMILBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationATLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationMILBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting walks match MIL pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting home runs match MIL pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting hits match MIL pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 8.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:ATL PA=33 matches MIL BF=33.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting walks match ATL pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting home runs match ATL pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting hits match ATL pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 10.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:MIL PA=31 matches ATL BF=31.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.719 -> 0.638 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.719042, 'sample_size': 205, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5561, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.637571, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaATLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaMILCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTATL current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEMIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKMIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTMIL current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDMIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.443/0.612.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_OUTSInning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: ATL 3, MIL 5.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: ATL 3 - MIL 5.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-08-21', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-06-21', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260822', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.570412, 'artifact': '20260822_ATL@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260821', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5844, 'artifact': '20260821_ATL@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.083, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.146, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6966, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-08-23.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename matches game_id: 20260823_ATL@MIL.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: ATL@MIL.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0404, 'away_run_delta': -0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029372836487136643}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028996547660131346}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.027803016887679693}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.027446838667831736}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.026079484130193717}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.037144907812345924, '1': 0.06375067965376155, '2': 0.095901161792613, '3': 0.12644930090116216, '4': 0.14613778202900513, '5': 0.14803421519151083, '6': 0.13143626654863244, '7': 0.1022873290113977, '8': 0.0697721292827367, '9': 0.041715324893883486, '10': 0.021860636297606692, '11': 0.01004115063105496, '12': 0.00404257122502783, '13': 0.0014265447292616613}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.08685525791546768, '1': 0.14260472931800275, '2': 0.1878148024881351, '3': 0.19841924010025122, '4': 0.16814959325790785, '5': 0.11430518610909052, '6': 0.06232956902228674, '7': 0.02726342337215819, '8': 0.009565875548691795, '9': 0.002692322868008271}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.4923, 'recent_quality_edge': 1.076, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6966}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.083, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.146, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6966, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 133.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASSpitch_countsimulationATLPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationATLPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 133.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMILPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHMIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMILPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHMIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingcurrentATLPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentATLSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentMILPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentMILSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationATLPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationATLSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationMILPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationMILSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 3 - 5 MIL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: ATL 3 - 5 MIL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 5-3.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 5-3.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: MIL wins 3-5.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: MIL wins 5-3.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentATLRECENT_FORM_RANGEATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentATLTEAM_RECENT_RECORDATL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMILRECENT_FORM_RANGEMIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMILTEAM_RECENT_RECORDMIL wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
Passed checks
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
PASSbattingcurrentATLBATTING_REALISMcurrent:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentMILBATTING_REALISMcurrent:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationATLBATTING_REALISMsimulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationMILBATTING_REALISMsimulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentATLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentMILBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationATLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationMILBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting walks match MIL pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting home runs match MIL pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting hits match MIL pitching: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:ATL batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 8.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:ATL PA=33 matches MIL BF=33.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationATLRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting walks match ATL pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting home runs match ATL pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting hits match ATL pitching: 5.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:MIL batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 10.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:MIL PA=31 matches ATL BF=31.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationMILRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.719 -> 0.638 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.719042, 'sample_size': 205, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5561, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.637571, 'published_confidence': 0.58, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaATLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaMILCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTATL current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEMIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKMIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTMIL current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDMIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.443/0.612.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_OUTSInning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: ATL 3, MIL 5.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: ATL 3 - MIL 5.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-08-21', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-06-21', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260822', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.570412, 'artifact': '20260822_ATL@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260821', 'away': 'ATL', 'home': 'MIL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.5844, 'artifact': '20260821_ATL@MIL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.083, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.146, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6966, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-08-23.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename matches game_id: 20260823_ATL@MIL.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: ATL@MIL.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 7.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 7.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.4, 'home_run_delta': 0.0404, 'away_run_delta': -0.0404, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029372836487136643}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028996547660131346}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.027803016887679693}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.027446838667831736}, {'home_runs': 6, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.026079484130193717}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.037144907812345924, '1': 0.06375067965376155, '2': 0.095901161792613, '3': 0.12644930090116216, '4': 0.14613778202900513, '5': 0.14803421519151083, '6': 0.13143626654863244, '7': 0.1022873290113977, '8': 0.0697721292827367, '9': 0.041715324893883486, '10': 0.021860636297606692, '11': 0.01004115063105496, '12': 0.00404257122502783, '13': 0.0014265447292616613}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.08685525791546768, '1': 0.14260472931800275, '2': 0.1878148024881351, '3': 0.19841924010025122, '4': 0.16814959325790785, '5': 0.11430518610909052, '6': 0.06232956902228674, '7': 0.02726342337215819, '8': 0.009565875548691795, '9': 0.002692322868008271}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.4923, 'recent_quality_edge': 1.076, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.6966}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.083, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 1.146, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 2, 'published_winner': 'MIL', 'published_winner_draw_share': 1.0, 'draw_majority_team': 'MIL', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 2, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6966, 'winner': 'MIL', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 133.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASSpitch_countsimulationATLPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationATLPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 133.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMILPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHMIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationMILPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHMIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingPITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTAll 7 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASSpitchingcurrentATLPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentATLSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentMILPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentMILSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationATLPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationATLSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationMILPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationMILSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationATLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationMILPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 3 - 5 MIL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: ATL 3 - 5 MIL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 5-3.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): MIL wins 5-3.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: MIL wins 3-5.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: MIL wins 5-3.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentATLRECENT_FORM_RANGEATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentATLTEAM_RECENT_RECORDATL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMILRECENT_FORM_RANGEMIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentMILTEAM_RECENT_RECORDMIL wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
Info/context findings
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentATLCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentMILCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONMIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaATLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=3; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=3).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaATLCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=6 box=4, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Lane Thomas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Ozzie Albies: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2; Sean Murphy: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Austin Riley: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMILCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXMIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=29; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaMILCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXMIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Bauers: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; William Contreras: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brice Turang: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Andrew Vaughn: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Garrett Mitchell: H current=1 box=0; David Hamilton: H current=1 box=0; Christian Yelich: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
Score evolution
stepaway_runshome_runsconfidencedescription
historical_ml4.52517074700583164.674955477638053Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied55Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction350.580Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment35Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review35Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target35Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result35Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Inning-by-inning linescore
team123456789RH
ATL10000010133
MIL20000300055
Team totals - current + final simulation
srcteamtypePAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBSOSFHBPSBCSIPERBFPitches
currentATLbatting37820133280000
currentATLpitching5152108.0500
currentMILbatting34920155480000
currentMILpitching333389.0300
simulationATLbatting303003333800
simulationATLpitching5152108.0531133
simulationMILbatting2951015521000
simulationMILpitching333389.0333144
Batting lines - current + final simulation
srcteamorderposnamePAABH2B3BHRRRBIBBSOHBPAVG
currentATLDHDrake Baldwin041001111100.250
currentATLCFMichael Harris II061100110100.167
currentATLSSMauricio Dubón041000010000.250
currentATL1BMatt Olson041100101100.250
currentATLLFLane Thomas030000000100.000
currentATL2BOzzie Albies051000000100.200
currentATLCSean Murphy041000000100.250
currentATL3BAustin Riley041000000100.250
currentATLRFJim Jarvis031000000100.333
currentMILRFJake Bauers031001111100.333
currentMILCWilliam Contreras051000111100.200
currentMIL2BBrice Turang051100111100.200
currentMILLFJackson Chourio051100111100.200
currentMIL1BAndrew Vaughn031000000000.333
currentMILCFGarrett Mitchell031000000100.333
currentMIL3BDavid Hamilton031000000100.333
currentMILDHChristian Yelich041000100100.250
currentMILSSJoey Ortiz031000010100.333
simulationATL1CFMichael Harris II440000000100.000
simulationATL21BMatt Olson440000000000.000
simulationATL32BOzzie Albies442002120200.500
simulationATL4DHDrake Baldwin430000101000.000
simulationATL5LFLane Thomas441001110100.250
simulationATL6SSMauricio Dubón440000000100.000
simulationATL73BAustin Riley320000001000.000
simulationATL8CSean Murphy330000000200.000
simulationATL9SSJim Jarvis320000001100.000
simulationMIL1LFJackson Chourio430000101100.000
simulationMIL22BBrice Turang442000110100.500
simulationMIL3CWilliam Contreras441000100200.250
simulationMIL4RFJake Bauers441001130100.250
simulationMIL51BAndrew Vaughn331100110200.333
simulationMIL6DHChristian Yelich330000000100.000
simulationMIL7SSJoey Ortiz320000001000.000
simulationMIL8CFGarrett Mitchell330000000100.000
simulationMIL93BDavid Hamilton330000000100.000
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
srcteamordernameroleIPHRERBBSOHRBFPitchessim_ERAseason_ERAseason_WHIP
currentATL1Tyler MahleStarter5.2555281007.944.531.31
currentATL3Dylan LeeSetup Man1.0000010000.002.020.76
currentATL6Raisel IglesiasCloser1.1000010000.003.091.18
currentMIL1Shane DrohanStarter5.1111251001.693.861.25
currentMIL2Aaron AshbySetup Man1.1000120000.003.251.39
currentMIL3Chad PatrickMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.1111011006.752.971.18
currentMIL4Trevor MegillCloser1.0111001009.001.620.78
simulationATL1Tyler MahleStarter5.2555281241037.944.531.31
simulationATL2Raisel IglesiasCloser1.10000104170.003.091.18
simulationATL3Dylan LeeSetup Man1.00000103130.002.020.76
simulationMIL1Shane DrohanStarter5.111125119871.693.861.25
simulationMIL2Trevor MegillCloser1.01110014169.001.620.78
simulationMIL3Aaron AshbySetup Man1.10001205210.003.251.39
simulationMIL4Chad PatrickMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.11110115206.752.971.18
Pitch count summary
teampitcherroleIPRHBBSOBFPitches
ATLTyler MahleStarter5.2552824103
ATLDylan LeeSetup Man1.00001313
ATLRaisel IglesiasCloser1.10001417
MILShane DrohanStarter5.111251987
MILAaron AshbySetup Man1.10012521
MILChad PatrickMiddle Reliever (High Leverage)1.11101520
MILTrevor MegillCloser1.01100416
Audit rule catalog
rulestatuscriticalerrorwarningpassdescription
BATTING_REALISMgood0004Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUMgood0004Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHgood0002Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHgood0002Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCHgood0002Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHgood0002Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDgood0001Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGEgood0005Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXinfo0002Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEgood0002Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKgood0002Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTgood0002Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONinfo0000Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXinfo0000Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDgood0002Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgood0001game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSEgood0001Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHgood0001Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCHgood0001Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICYgood0001One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgood0001game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCgood0001Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGEgood0001Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNTgood0001Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTSgood0001Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMSgood0001Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCEgood0001Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITSgood0001Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNSgood0001Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSISgood0003Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILgood0001Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSgood0004H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCHgood0002Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSIONgood0001Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENTgood0001Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSgood0001Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISMgood0004Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUMgood0008Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHgood0002Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHgood0004Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITYgood0001Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHgood0003prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGEgood0004Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONinfo0000When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETEgood0001Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORTnot triggered0000Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINALgood0002Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTgood0001Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIEgood0001Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHgood0001score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDERgood0001Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACEgood0001Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENTgood0004Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYSnot triggered0000Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFTgood0001Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORDgood0002team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCHgood0001total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCHgood0001winner field agrees with the final score.