MLB JSON Audit Report

20260822_MIN@SD

20260822_MIN@SD.json • 2026-08-22

MIN 3 - SD 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ryan Jeffers: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Byron Buxton: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Bell: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Trevor Larnach: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ty France: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Gavin Sheets: AB current=3 box=4; Fernando Tatis Jr.: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Luis Rengifo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Freddy Fermin: H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jackson Merrill: AB current=5 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match SD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match SD pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=40 matches SD BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match MIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match MIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match MIN pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=40 matches MIN BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.697 -> 0.627 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.696621, 'sample_size': 269, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5576, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.62711, 'published_confidence': 0.588103, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.412.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.588.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.588.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.467/0.639.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 10, SD 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 3 - SD 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for SD.	{'winner_confidence': 0.58810335, 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260821', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.542242, 'artifact': '20260821_MIN@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-22.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260822_MIN@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@SD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': 4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': 4.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0333, 'away_run_delta': -0.0333, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.032970923708378834}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.03283923324809469}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.030651741690493426}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.030529314366120167}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.030498405254971148}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04781535678712663, '1': 0.08128514918767053, '2': 0.11882971967827055, '3': 0.14938568989883316, '4': 0.16149645017833003, '5': 0.15013675438943927, '6': 0.12002760068564411, '7': 0.08251735247021352, '8': 0.04878423567023401, '9': 0.024801833275523995, '10': 0.010843216307476311, '11': 0.004076641471237867}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.09794652006709108, '1': 0.15918555404765003, '2': 0.2033433751134001, '3': 0.20415881384371723, '4': 0.16110832096021116, '5': 0.09992623879019621, '6': 0.04871389346290574, '7': 0.018665424644157772, '8': 0.005621272502321008, '9': 0.001330586568349557}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.4729, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.54, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.4964}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 3 - 4 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 3 - 4 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0125, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.89, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 25, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6, 'draw_majority_team': 'SD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4964, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 175.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 175.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 3 - 4 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 3 - 4 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SD, simulation=SD, published=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.588.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SD wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match SD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match SD pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=40 matches SD BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match MIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match MIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match MIN pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=40 matches MIN BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.697 -> 0.627 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.696621, 'sample_size': 269, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5576, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.62711, 'published_confidence': 0.588103, 'published_after_governors': True, 'governor_mode': 'shrinkage_not_clamp'}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.412.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.588.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.588.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.467/0.639.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 10, SD 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 3 - SD 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for SD.	{'winner_confidence': 0.58810335, 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260821', 'away': 'MIN', 'home': 'SD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 4, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.542242, 'artifact': '20260821_MIN@SD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-22.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260822_MIN@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@SD.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 1, 'sample_weight': 0.0167, 'home_net_margin': 4.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 4.0, 'home_average_margin': 4.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0333, 'away_run_delta': -0.0333, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 4.0}], 'adaptive_parameters': {'h2h.history_limit': 5, 'h2h.maximum_weight': 0.15, 'h2h.prior_games': 8.0, 'h2h.maximum_total_shift': 0.65}}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.032970923708378834}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.03283923324809469}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.030651741690493426}, {'home_runs': 5, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.030529314366120167}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.030498405254971148}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.04781535678712663, '1': 0.08128514918767053, '2': 0.11882971967827055, '3': 0.14938568989883316, '4': 0.16149645017833003, '5': 0.15013675438943927, '6': 0.12002760068564411, '7': 0.08251735247021352, '8': 0.04878423567023401, '9': 0.024801833275523995, '10': 0.010843216307476311, '11': 0.004076641471237867}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.09794652006709108, '1': 0.15918555404765003, '2': 0.2033433751134001, '3': 0.20415881384371723, '4': 0.16110832096021116, '5': 0.09992623879019621, '6': 0.04871389346290574, '7': 0.018665424644157772, '8': 0.005621272502321008, '9': 0.001330586568349557}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.4729, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.54, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.4964}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 3 - 4 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 3 - 4 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': True, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0125, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': 0.89, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'SD', 'model_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner': 'SD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_agreement_scope': 'selected_draw_only', 'simulation_distribution_agreement': {'available': True, 'draw_count': 25, 'published_winner': 'SD', 'published_winner_draw_share': 0.6, 'draw_majority_team': 'SD', 'published_winner_is_draw_majority': True, 'sampling': 'target_conditioned_selection', 'is_unbiased_probability_sample': False, 'note': 'Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed.'}, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': True, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_simulation_realized_target', 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_realized_target': True, 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4964, 'winner': 'SD', 'score_reviewed': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}, 'reason': 'published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 175.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 175.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching			PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	All 9 pitchers in the box actually appeared.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 3 - 4 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 3 - 4 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SD, simulation=SD, published=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.588.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary agrees with the published score (game.final_prediction): SD wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ryan Jeffers: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Byron Buxton: HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Bell: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Trevor Larnach: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=1, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ty France: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Gavin Sheets: AB current=3 box=4; Fernando Tatis Jr.: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Luis Rengifo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Freddy Fermin: H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jackson Merrill: AB current=5 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.0449036669863725	4.927278246180792		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.588	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	10
SD	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	4	11

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIN	batting	35	8	2	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	MIN	pitching		11			1		4	3	7					8.0	4	0	0
current	SD	batting	34	8	1	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	SD	pitching		10			0		3	3	6					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	MIN	batting	37	10	1	0	0	3	3	3	6	0	0
simulation	MIN	pitching		11			1		4	3	7					8.0	4	40	175
simulation	SD	batting	37	11	4	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0
simulation	SD	pitching		10			0		3	3	6					9.0	3	40	166

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	MIN		RF	Luke Keaschall	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIN		2B	Kody Clemens	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIN		C	Ryan Jeffers	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIN		1B	Royce Lewis	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	MIN		CF	Byron Buxton	0	5	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	MIN		DH	Josh Bell	0	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIN		LF	Trevor Larnach	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	MIN		3B	Brooks Lee	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	MIN		SS	Kaelen Culpepper	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SD		1B	Ty France	0	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	SD		3B	Manny Machado	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	SD		2B	Jake Cronenworth	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	SD		DH	Gavin Sheets	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SD		RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	SD		LF	Luis Rengifo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	SD		C	Freddy Fermin	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	SD		CF	Jackson Merrill	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	SD		SS	Xander Bogaerts	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	1	RF	Luke Keaschall	5	5	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.400
simulation	MIN	2	CF	Byron Buxton	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.200
simulation	MIN	3	DH	Josh Bell	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	MIN	4	C	Ryan Jeffers	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.200
simulation	MIN	5	2B	Kody Clemens	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	6	1B	Royce Lewis	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	7	LF	Trevor Larnach	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	8	3B	Brooks Lee	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	MIN	9	SS	Kaelen Culpepper	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	SD	1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	SD	2	2B	Jake Cronenworth	5	5	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	SD	3	3B	Manny Machado	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	SD	4	1B	Ty France	5	5	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0.200
simulation	SD	5	CF	Jackson Merrill	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	SD	6	LF	Luis Rengifo	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	SD	7	DH	Gavin Sheets	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	SD	8	SS	Xander Bogaerts	4	3	1	0	1	1	2	1	1	0.333
simulation	SD	9	C	Freddy Fermin	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.667

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIN	1	Dean Kremer	Starter	5.0	4	2	2	3	4	0	0	0	3.60	5.40	1.18
current	MIN	2	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.34	1.30
current	MIN	3	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	18.00	3.20	1.31
current	MIN	4	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.99	0.95
current	MIN	5	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.76	1.40
current	SD	1	Casey Mize	Starter	5.2	5	1	1	3	4	0	0	0	1.59	3.18	1.07
current	SD	2	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.78	1.09
current	SD	3	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	4	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	18.00	2.04	1.05
current	SD	4	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.84	0.81
simulation	MIN	1	Dean Kremer	Starter	5.0	4	2	2	3	4	0	22	99	3.60	5.40	1.18
simulation	MIN	2	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	1	6	22	18.00	3.20	1.31
simulation	MIN	3	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	18	0.00	3.76	1.40
simulation	MIN	4	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	19	0.00	3.34	1.30
simulation	MIN	5	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	3	0	0	0	0	0	5	17	0.00	1.99	0.95
simulation	SD	1	Casey Mize	Starter	5.2	5	1	1	3	4	0	25	102	1.59	3.18	1.07
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	18	0.00	0.84	0.81
simulation	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	5	21	0.00	2.78	1.09
simulation	SD	4	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	4	2	2	0	1	0	7	25	18.00	2.04	1.05

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIN	Dean Kremer	Starter	5.0	2	4	3	4	22	99
MIN	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	19
MIN	Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	1.0	2	3	0	1	6	22
MIN	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	0.2	0	3	0	0	5	17
MIN	Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	0.1	0	0	0	0	3	18
SD	Casey Mize	Starter	5.2	1	5	3	4	25	102
SD	Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	1.1	0	1	0	1	5	21
SD	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	1.0	2	4	0	1	7	25
SD	Mason Miller	Closer	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	18

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_APPEARANCE_COHERENT	good	1	Every pitcher in the box actually appeared: no 0-inning 0-batter line, and no pitch without a batter faced.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.