MLB JSON Audit Report

Generated 2026-08-20 20:36:51. This single HTML file audits only the selected game date. The default view focuses on actionable problems first; detailed checks, passed checks, batting, pitching, pitch counts, and the rule catalog stay available in collapsible sections.

0Critical
0Error
1Warn
200Pass
14Info

20260820_LAA@HOU

20260820_LAA@HOU.json • 2026-08-20

LAA 3 - HOU 4
PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 101INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
All findings - complete audit trail
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONHOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentLAACURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONLAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaHOUCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXHOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=6).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaHOUCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXHOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: LaMonte Wade Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Yordan Alvarez: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Daulton Varsho: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Isaac Paredes: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=3; Jose Altuve: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cam Smith: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Nick Allen: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLAACURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=10, sim=7).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLAACURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXLAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Vaughn Grissom: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Josh Lowe: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Zach Neto: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=0; Nolan Schanuel: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mike Trout: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Adam Frazier: H current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASSbattingcurrentHOUBATTING_REALISMcurrent:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentLAABATTING_REALISMcurrent:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationHOUBATTING_REALISMsimulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationLAABATTING_REALISMsimulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentHOUBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentLAABATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationHOUBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationLAABATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:HOU batting walks match LAA pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:HOU batting home runs match LAA pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:HOU batting hits match LAA pitching: 8.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:HOU batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:HOU PA=33 matches LAA BF=33.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOURUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLAABAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:LAA batting walks match HOU pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLAABAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:LAA batting home runs match HOU pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLAABAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:LAA batting hits match HOU pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLAABAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:LAA batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLAAPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:LAA PA=33 matches HOU BF=33.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLAARUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.580 -> 0.542 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.580448, 'sample_size': 270, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5037, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.542074, 'published_confidence': 0.542074, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaHOUCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXHOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaLAACURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEHOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKHOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTHOU current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDHOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLAACURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPELAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLAACURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKLAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLAACURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTLAA current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLAACURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDLAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.458.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.542.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.542.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.504/0.683.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_OUTSInning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: LAA 6, HOU 8.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: LAA 3 - HOU 4.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: HOU.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for HOU; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'opponent_team': 'LAA', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-08-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'HOU'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260819', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.517613, 'artifact': '20260819_LAA@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260818', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260818_LAA@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260728', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260728_HOU@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260727', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260727_HOU@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'HOU', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'output_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'HOU', 'final_score_winner': 'HOU', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0621, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1017, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3128, 'winner': 'HOU', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-08-20.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename matches game_id: 20260820_LAA@HOU.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: LAA@HOU.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0288, 'away_run_delta': -0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}]}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03553958806758486}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03287022981861162}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.032129251671872076}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.03212210593468056}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03160320002597335}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0730502799284408, '1': 0.1214465471742014, '2': 0.1660571119997195, '3': 0.18674062599080327, '4': 0.17271464376897688, '5': 0.1313797808754725, '6': 0.08219339631670927, '7': 0.042291621876227016, '8': 0.01789702216585826, '9': 0.0062289699035911}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07666338014023386, '1': 0.1270388814232502, '2': 0.17201455636259103, '3': 0.19031524543210612, '4': 0.17205282193631716, '5': 0.12709540869033653, '6': 0.07671455408022179, '7': 0.03783602545870976, '8': 0.015248007404321254, '9': 0.005021119071912279}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5675, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.16, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3128}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0621, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1017, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3128, 'winner': 'HOU', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASSpitch_countsimulationHOUPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHHOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationHOUPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHHOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLAAPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHLAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLAAPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHLAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingcurrentHOUPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentHOUSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentLAAPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentLAASTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationHOUPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationHOUSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationLAAPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationLAASTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentHOUPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentHOUPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLAAPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLAAPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationHOUPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationHOUPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLAAPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLAAPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 3 - 4 HOU.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: LAA 3 - 4 HOU.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: HOU wins 4-3.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=HOU, simulation=HOU, published=HOU.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.542.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary is consistent: HOU wins 4-3.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: HOU wins 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: HOU wins 4-3.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentHOURECENT_FORM_RANGEHOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentHOUTEAM_RECENT_RECORDHOU wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLAARECENT_FORM_RANGELAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLAATEAM_RECENT_RECORDLAA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
Passed checks
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
PASSbattingcurrentHOUBATTING_REALISMcurrent:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentLAABATTING_REALISMcurrent:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationHOUBATTING_REALISMsimulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationLAABATTING_REALISMsimulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentHOUBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentLAABATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationHOUBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationLAABATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:HOU batting walks match LAA pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:HOU batting home runs match LAA pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:HOU batting hits match LAA pitching: 8.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:HOU batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOUPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:HOU PA=33 matches LAA BF=33.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationHOURUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLAABAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:LAA batting walks match HOU pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLAABAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:LAA batting home runs match HOU pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLAABAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:LAA batting hits match HOU pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLAABAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:LAA batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLAAPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:LAA PA=33 matches HOU BF=33.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLAARUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.580 -> 0.542 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.580448, 'sample_size': 270, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5037, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.542074, 'published_confidence': 0.542074, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaHOUCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXHOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaLAACURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEHOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKHOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTHOU current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDHOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLAACURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPELAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLAACURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKLAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLAACURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTLAA current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLAACURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDLAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.458.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.542.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.542.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.504/0.683.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_OUTSInning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: LAA 6, HOU 8.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: LAA 3 - HOU 4.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: HOU.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for HOU; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'opponent_team': 'LAA', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-08-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'HOU'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260819', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.517613, 'artifact': '20260819_LAA@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260818', 'away': 'LAA', 'home': 'HOU', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260818_LAA@HOU.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260728', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260728_HOU@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260727', 'away': 'HOU', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260727_HOU@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'HOU', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'output_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'HOU', 'final_score_winner': 'HOU', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0621, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1017, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3128, 'winner': 'HOU', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-08-20.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename matches game_id: 20260820_LAA@HOU.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: LAA@HOU.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': 5.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 5.0, 'home_average_margin': 1.0, 'home_run_delta': 0.0288, 'away_run_delta': -0.0288, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 2.0}]}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03553958806758486}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03287022981861162}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.032129251671872076}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.03212210593468056}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03160320002597335}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0730502799284408, '1': 0.1214465471742014, '2': 0.1660571119997195, '3': 0.18674062599080327, '4': 0.17271464376897688, '5': 0.1313797808754725, '6': 0.08219339631670927, '7': 0.042291621876227016, '8': 0.01789702216585826, '9': 0.0062289699035911}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.07666338014023386, '1': 0.1270388814232502, '2': 0.17201455636259103, '3': 0.19031524543210612, '4': 0.17205282193631716, '5': 0.12709540869033653, '6': 0.07671455408022179, '7': 0.03783602545870976, '8': 0.015248007404321254, '9': 0.005021119071912279}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.5675, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.16, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'conflict', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.3128}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0621, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1017, 'winner_direction': 'home', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'HOU', 'model_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3128, 'winner': 'HOU', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASSpitch_countsimulationHOUPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHHOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationHOUPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHHOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLAAPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHLAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLAAPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHLAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingcurrentHOUPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentHOUSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentLAAPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentLAASTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationHOUPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationHOUSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationLAAPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationLAASTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentHOUPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentHOUPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLAAPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLAAPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationHOUPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationHOUPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLAAPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLAAPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 3 - 4 HOU.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: LAA 3 - 4 HOU.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: HOU wins 4-3.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=HOU, simulation=HOU, published=HOU.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.542.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary is consistent: HOU wins 4-3.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: HOU wins 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: HOU wins 4-3.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentHOURECENT_FORM_RANGEHOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentHOUTEAM_RECENT_RECORDHOU wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLAARECENT_FORM_RANGELAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLAATEAM_RECENT_RECORDLAA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
Info/context findings
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentHOUCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONHOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentLAACURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONLAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaHOUCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXHOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=6).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaHOUCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXHOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: LaMonte Wade Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Yordan Alvarez: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Daulton Varsho: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Isaac Paredes: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=3; Jose Altuve: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cam Smith: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Nick Allen: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLAACURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=10, sim=7).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLAACURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXLAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Vaughn Grissom: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Josh Lowe: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Zach Neto: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=0; Nolan Schanuel: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mike Trout: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Adam Frazier: H current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
Score evolution
stepaway_runshome_runsconfidencedescription
historical_ml4.1112270355224615.429915904998779Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied45Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction340.542Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment34Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review34Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target34Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result34Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Inning-by-inning linescore
team123456789RH
LAA10001100036
HOU00004000048
Team totals - current + final simulation
srcteamtypePAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBSOSFHBPSBCSIPERBFPitches
currentLAAbatting329000321100000
currentLAApitching804168.0400
currentHOUbatting33900032180000
currentHOUpitching613079.0300
simulationLAAbatting336201330700
simulationLAApitching804168.0433131
simulationHOUbatting328300441600
simulationHOUpitching613079.0333132
Batting lines - current + final simulation
srcteamorderposnamePAABH2B3BHRRRBIBBSOHBPAVG
currentLAALFWade Meckler031000000100.333
currentLAADHMoisés Ballesteros031000000100.333
currentLAA3BVaughn Grissom041000010100.250
currentLAARFJosh Lowe031000000100.333
currentLAASSZach Neto051000110200.200
currentLAA1BNolan Schanuel041000010100.250
currentLAACFMike Trout041000101100.250
currentLAA2BAdam Frazier031000000100.333
currentLAACTyler Heineman031000000100.333
currentHOU1BLaMonte Wade Jr.031000000100.333
currentHOUDHYordan Alvarez041000111100.250
currentHOULFTaylor Trammell031000000100.333
currentHOUCFDaulton Varsho041000000100.250
currentHOU3BIsaac Paredes041000010000.250
currentHOU2BJose Altuve051000100100.200
currentHOURFCam Smith041000010100.250
currentHOUSSNick Allen031000000100.333
currentHOUCChristian Vázquez031000000100.333
simulationLAA1LFWade Meckler441000000100.250
simulationLAA2CFMike Trout441000000100.250
simulationLAA31BNolan Schanuel442100110000.500
simulationLAA4SSZach Neto441100110000.250
simulationLAA5DHMoisés Ballesteros440000000200.000
simulationLAA63BVaughn Grissom440000000100.000
simulationLAA7RFJosh Lowe331001110100.333
simulationLAA8CTyler Heineman330000000000.000
simulationLAA92BAdam Frazier330000000100.000
simulationHOU11BLaMonte Wade Jr.442000100000.500
simulationHOU2DHYordan Alvarez441100120000.250
simulationHOU33BIsaac Paredes440000000300.000
simulationHOU42BJose Altuve442000000000.500
simulationHOU5CFDaulton Varsho441100000000.250
simulationHOU6LFTaylor Trammell440000000100.000
simulationHOU7RFCam Smith320000001100.000
simulationHOU8SSNick Allen331100110000.333
simulationHOU9CChristian Vázquez331000110100.333
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
srcteamordernameroleIPHRERBBSOHRBFPitchessim_ERAseason_ERAseason_WHIP
currentLAA1Grayson RodriguezStarter4.2644140007.717.171.59
currentLAA2Samy Natera Jr.Middle Reliever1.1000010000.002.000.81
currentLAA3Ben JoyceMiddle Reliever2.0100010000.000.000.33
currentLAA6José FerminMiddle Reliever0.0100000003.241.30
currentHOU1Peter LambertStarter5.2533061004.763.111.15
currentHOU2Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever1.1000000000.004.301.37
currentHOU3Josh HaderMiddle Reliever1.0000000000.000.580.68
currentHOU4Steven OkertMiddle Reliever1.0100010000.002.010.85
simulationLAA1Grayson RodriguezStarter4.264414021847.717.171.59
simulationLAA2Ben JoyceMiddle Reliever2.01000107100.000.000.33
simulationLAA3Samy Natera Jr.Middle Reliever1.10000104190.002.000.81
simulationLAA4José FerminMiddle Reliever0.01000001183.241.30
simulationHOU1Peter LambertStarter5.253306122954.763.111.15
simulationHOU2Josh HaderMiddle Reliever1.00000003150.000.580.68
simulationHOU3Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever1.1000000460.004.301.37
simulationHOU4Steven OkertMiddle Reliever1.01000104160.002.010.85
Pitch count summary
teampitcherroleIPRHBBSOBFPitches
LAAGrayson RodriguezStarter4.246142184
LAASamy Natera Jr.Middle Reliever1.10001419
LAABen JoyceMiddle Reliever2.00101710
LAAJosé FerminMiddle Reliever0.00100118
HOUPeter LambertStarter5.235062295
HOUBryan AbreuMiddle Reliever1.1000046
HOUJosh HaderMiddle Reliever1.00000315
HOUSteven OkertMiddle Reliever1.00101416
Audit rule catalog
rulestatuscriticalerrorwarningpassdescription
BATTING_REALISMgood0004Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUMgood0004Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHgood0002Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHgood0002Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCHgood0002Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHgood0002Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDgood0001Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGEgood0005Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXinfo0002Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEgood0002Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKgood0002Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTgood0002Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONinfo0000Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXinfo0000Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDgood0002Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgood0001game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSEgood0001Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHgood0001Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCHgood0001Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICYgood0001One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgood0001game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCgood0001Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGEgood0001Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNTgood0001Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTSgood0001Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMSgood0001Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCEgood0001Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITSgood0001Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNSgood0001Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSISgood0003Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILgood0001Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSgood0004H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCHgood0002Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSIONgood0001Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSgood0001Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISMgood0004Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUMgood0008Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHgood0002Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHgood0004Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITYgood0001Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHgood0003prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGEgood0004Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONinfo0000When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETEgood0001Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORTnot triggered0000Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINALgood0002Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTgood0001Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIEgood0001Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHgood0001score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDERgood0001Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACEgood0001Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENTgood0004Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYSnot triggered0000Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFTgood0001Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORDgood0002team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCHgood0001total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCHgood0001winner field agrees with the final score.

20260820_WAS@TEX

20260820_WAS@TEX.json • 2026-08-20

WAS 5 - TEX 1
WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 99INFO 7
Action summary - what to fix first
LevelProblem group / fixCountTeamsExample
WARNPrediction target vs final simulation drift
The inning simulation can vary from ML target, but large drift should be reviewed or explicitly documented as acceptable variance.
0C / 0E / 1W-Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 3-2, final 5-1 (delta 3).
Problems table - exact rows
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
WARNscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score drifted from enhanced target: target 3-2, final 5-1 (delta 3).
All findings - complete audit trail
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
WARNscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score drifted from enhanced target: target 3-2, final 5-1 (delta 3).
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentTEXCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONTEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentWASCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONWAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaTEXCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXTEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=7).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaTEXCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXTEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wyatt Langford: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ezequiel Duran: H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jake Burger: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Corey Seager: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Justin Foscue: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Danny Jansen: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Cody Freeman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaWASCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXWAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=9).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaWASCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXWAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Abimelec Ortiz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Daylen Lile: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jose F Miranda: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Dylan Crews: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Andrew Pinckney: AB current=3 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Andrés Chaparro: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Keibert Ruiz: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASSbattingcurrentTEXBATTING_REALISMcurrent:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentWASBATTING_REALISMcurrent:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationTEXBATTING_REALISMsimulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationWASBATTING_REALISMsimulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentTEXBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentWASBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationTEXBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationWASBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTEXBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:TEX batting walks match WAS pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTEXBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:TEX batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTEXBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:TEX batting hits match WAS pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTEXBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:TEX batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTEXPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:TEX PA=35 matches WAS BF=35.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTEXRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationWASBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:WAS batting walks match TEX pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationWASBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:WAS batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationWASBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:WAS batting hits match TEX pitching: 10.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationWASBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:WAS batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 9.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationWASPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:WAS PA=37 matches TEX BF=37.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationWASRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.507 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 270, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5037, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5069, 'published_confidence': 0.51, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaTEXCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXTEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaWASCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXWAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentTEXCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPETEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentTEXCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKTEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentTEXCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTTEX current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentTEXCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDTEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentWASCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEWAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentWASCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKWAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentWASCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTWAS current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentWASCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDWAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 5.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.475/0.650.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: WAS 10, TEX 4.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: WAS 5 - TEX 1.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: WAS.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for WAS; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'opponent_team': 'WAS', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-08-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'TEX'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260819', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.556563, 'artifact': '20260819_WAS@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260818', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.52006, 'artifact': '20260818_WAS@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TEX', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'output_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'simulation_score_winner': 'WAS', 'final_score_winner': 'WAS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 1 TEX', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.504, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -3, 'total_run_delta': -3, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'WAS', 'model_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4405, 'winner': 'WAS', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-08-20.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename matches game_id: 20260820_WAS@TEX.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: WAS@TEX.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.5, 'home_run_delta': -0.0075, 'away_run_delta': 0.0075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}]}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029698197204186805}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029641204787579076}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0292329469823471}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02917684740560731}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.025259560198765678}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06001850754540573, '1': 0.10092805205050777, '2': 0.14281520115023963, '3': 0.1700485079423029, '4': 0.17037546750678834, '5': 0.14364057685333212, '6': 0.10190208396840687, '7': 0.06083098321040346, '8': 0.030556418638108845, '9': 0.012915639425105471, '10': 0.004593727377821979, '11': 0.0013748343315769104}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06293971182915845, '1': 0.1055729439203388, '2': 0.14825820036420004, '3': 0.17431029031807957, '4': 0.17157955549664072, '5': 0.14139897478835312, '6': 0.09755851767729228, '7': 0.05635368697855138, '8': 0.02725321157463506, '9': 0.011034464208314797, '10': 0.003740442844435574}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.4063, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.504, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4405}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 1 TEX', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.504, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -3, 'total_run_delta': -3, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'WAS', 'model_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4405, 'winner': 'WAS', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139.
PASSpitch_countsimulationTEXPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHTEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationTEXPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHTEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139.
PASSpitch_countsimulationWASPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHWAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationWASPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHWAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingcurrentTEXPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentTEXSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentWASPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentWASSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationTEXPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationTEXSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationWASPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationWASSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentTEXPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentTEXPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentWASPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentWASPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationTEXPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationTEXPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationWASPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationWASPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 3 - 2 TEX.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: WAS 5 - 1 TEX.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: WAS wins 5-1.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=WAS, simulation=WAS, published=WAS.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary is consistent: WAS wins 5-1.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: WAS wins 5-1.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 5-1.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: WAS wins 5-1.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentTEXRECENT_FORM_RANGETEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentTEXTEAM_RECENT_RECORDTEX wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentWASRECENT_FORM_RANGEWAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentWASTEAM_RECENT_RECORDWAS wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
Passed checks
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
PASSbattingcurrentTEXBATTING_REALISMcurrent:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentWASBATTING_REALISMcurrent:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationTEXBATTING_REALISMsimulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationWASBATTING_REALISMsimulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentTEXBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentWASBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationTEXBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationWASBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTEXBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:TEX batting walks match WAS pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTEXBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:TEX batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTEXBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:TEX batting hits match WAS pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTEXBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:TEX batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 7.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTEXPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:TEX PA=35 matches WAS BF=35.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationTEXRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationWASBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:WAS batting walks match TEX pitching: 0.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationWASBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:WAS batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationWASBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:WAS batting hits match TEX pitching: 10.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationWASBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:WAS batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 9.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationWASPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:WAS PA=37 matches TEX BF=37.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationWASRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.510 -> 0.507 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.5101, 'sample_size': 270, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5037, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.5069, 'published_confidence': 0.51, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaTEXCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXTEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaWASCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXWAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentTEXCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPETEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentTEXCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKTEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentTEXCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTTEX current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentTEXCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDTEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentWASCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEWAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentWASCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKWAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentWASCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTWAS current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentWASCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDWAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 5.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.475/0.650.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: WAS 10, TEX 4.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: WAS 5 - TEX 1.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: WAS.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for WAS; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'opponent_team': 'WAS', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-08-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'TEX'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260819', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.556563, 'artifact': '20260819_WAS@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260818', 'away': 'WAS', 'home': 'TEX', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.52006, 'artifact': '20260818_WAS@TEX.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TEX', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'output_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'simulation_score_winner': 'WAS', 'final_score_winner': 'WAS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 1 TEX', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.504, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -3, 'total_run_delta': -3, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'WAS', 'model_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4405, 'winner': 'WAS', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-08-20.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename matches game_id: 20260820_WAS@TEX.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: WAS@TEX.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 2, 'sample_weight': 0.03, 'home_net_margin': -1.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 1.0, 'home_average_margin': -0.5, 'home_run_delta': -0.0075, 'away_run_delta': 0.0075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 5.0}]}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029698197204186805}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029641204787579076}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0292329469823471}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02917684740560731}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.025259560198765678}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.06001850754540573, '1': 0.10092805205050777, '2': 0.14281520115023963, '3': 0.1700485079423029, '4': 0.17037546750678834, '5': 0.14364057685333212, '6': 0.10190208396840687, '7': 0.06083098321040346, '8': 0.030556418638108845, '9': 0.012915639425105471, '10': 0.004593727377821979, '11': 0.0013748343315769104}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06293971182915845, '1': 0.1055729439203388, '2': 0.14825820036420004, '3': 0.17431029031807957, '4': 0.17157955549664072, '5': 0.14139897478835312, '6': 0.09755851767729228, '7': 0.05635368697855138, '8': 0.02725321157463506, '9': 0.011034464208314797, '10': 0.003740442844435574}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -0.4063, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.504, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -0.4405}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'WAS 5 - 1 TEX', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': 0.0, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.504, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -3, 'total_run_delta': -3, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'WAS', 'model_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 4, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4405, 'winner': 'WAS', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139.
PASSpitch_countsimulationTEXPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHTEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationTEXPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHTEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139.
PASSpitch_countsimulationWASPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHWAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationWASPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHWAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingcurrentTEXPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentTEXSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentWASPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentWASSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationTEXPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationTEXSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationWASPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationWASSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentTEXPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentTEXPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentWASPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentWASPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationTEXPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationTEXPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationWASPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationWASPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 3 - 2 TEX.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: WAS 5 - 1 TEX.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: WAS wins 5-1.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=WAS, simulation=WAS, published=WAS.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary is consistent: WAS wins 5-1.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: WAS wins 5-1.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 5-1.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: WAS wins 5-1.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentTEXRECENT_FORM_RANGETEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentTEXTEAM_RECENT_RECORDTEX wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentWASRECENT_FORM_RANGEWAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentWASTEAM_RECENT_RECORDWAS wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
Info/context findings
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentTEXCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONTEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentWASCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONWAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaTEXCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXTEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=7).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaTEXCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXTEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wyatt Langford: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ezequiel Duran: H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jake Burger: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Corey Seager: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Justin Foscue: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Danny Jansen: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Cody Freeman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaWASCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXWAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=9).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaWASCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXWAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Abimelec Ortiz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Daylen Lile: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jose F Miranda: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Dylan Crews: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Andrew Pinckney: AB current=3 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Andrés Chaparro: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Keibert Ruiz: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
Score evolution
stepaway_runshome_runsconfidencedescription
historical_ml3.48637199401855475.081294059753418Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied35Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction340.510Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment34Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review54Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target54Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result51Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Inning-by-inning linescore
team123456789RH
WAS200000003510
TEX00000000114
Team totals - current + final simulation
srcteamtypePAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBSOSFHBPSBCSIPERBFPitches
currentWASbatting31900042080000
currentWASpitching411479.0100
currentTEXbatting33900022090000
currentTEXpitching1015099.0500
simulationWASbatting3710311550900
simulationWASpitching411479.0135157
simulationTEXbatting314001114700
simulationTEXpitching1015099.0537139
Batting lines - current + final simulation
srcteamorderposnamePAABH2B3BHRRRBIBBSOHBPAVG
currentWASDHAbimelec Ortiz031000010100.333
currentWASRFDaylen Lile041000010100.250
currentWAS2BJose F Miranda031000000100.333
currentWASCFDylan Crews041000000100.250
currentWASSSNasim Nuñez031000000100.333
currentWASLFAndrew Pinckney031000100100.333
currentWAS1BAndrés Chaparro031000110100.333
currentWASCKeibert Ruiz041000010000.250
currentWAS3BBrady House041000000100.250
currentTEXDHWyatt Langford041000100100.250
currentTEXLFEzequiel Duran041000010100.250
currentTEX1BJake Burger041000010100.250
currentTEXSSCorey Seager041000100100.250
currentTEX2BJustin Foscue031000000100.333
currentTEXRFBrandon Nimmo051000000100.200
currentTEXCDanny Jansen031000000100.333
currentTEX3BCody Freeman031000000100.333
currentTEXCFEvan Carter031000000100.333
simulationWAS1RFDaylen Lile550000000200.000
simulationWAS2DHAbimelec Ortiz442000100100.500
simulationWAS31BAndrés Chaparro441001120100.250
simulationWAS42BJose F Miranda442100000100.500
simulationWAS53BBrady House441000000200.250
simulationWAS6CKeibert Ruiz441100110000.250
simulationWAS7CFDylan Crews440000000000.000
simulationWAS8SSNasim Nuñez442100110100.500
simulationWAS9LFAndrew Pinckney441010110100.250
simulationTEX1DHWyatt Langford440000000200.000
simulationTEX2SSCorey Seager431000001000.333
simulationTEX31BJake Burger430000001000.000
simulationTEX4RFBrandon Nimmo440000000200.000
simulationTEX5LFEzequiel Duran443001110100.750
simulationTEX62BJustin Foscue440000000100.000
simulationTEX7CDanny Jansen430000001100.000
simulationTEX83BCody Freeman440000000000.000
simulationTEX9CFEvan Carter320000001000.000
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
srcteamordernameroleIPHRERBBSOHRBFPitchessim_ERAseason_ERAseason_WHIP
currentWAS1Andrew AlvarezStarter5.1300340000.003.721.33
currentWAS2Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever1.2000110000.003.081.18
currentWAS3Orlando RibaltaMiddle Reliever1.0000010000.003.411.16
currentWAS4Tom CosgroveMiddle Reliever1.0111011009.003.751.25
currentTEX1Jacob deGromStarter5.0322041003.603.951.17
currentTEX2Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever1.1000020000.001.290.66
currentTEX3Peyton GrayMiddle Reliever1.0100000000.003.831.28
currentTEX4Robby AhlstromMiddle Reliever1.0200020000.004.181.11
currentTEX5Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever0.24330100040.502.831.43
simulationWAS1Andrew AlvarezStarter5.1300340221000.003.721.33
simulationWAS2Clayton BeeterMiddle Reliever1.20001106250.003.081.18
simulationWAS3Orlando RibaltaMiddle Reliever1.00000103160.003.411.16
simulationWAS4Tom CosgroveMiddle Reliever1.01110114169.003.751.25
simulationTEX1Jacob deGromStarter5.032204118883.603.951.17
simulationTEX2Jacob LatzMiddle Reliever1.1000020440.001.290.66
simulationTEX3Peyton GrayMiddle Reliever1.01000004160.003.831.28
simulationTEX4Robby AhlstromMiddle Reliever1.02000205190.004.181.11
simulationTEX5Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever0.243301061240.502.831.43
Pitch count summary
teampitcherroleIPRHBBSOBFPitches
WASAndrew AlvarezStarter5.1033422100
WASClayton BeeterMiddle Reliever1.20011625
WASOrlando RibaltaMiddle Reliever1.00001316
WASTom CosgroveMiddle Reliever1.01101416
TEXJacob deGromStarter5.023041888
TEXJacob LatzMiddle Reliever1.1000244
TEXPeyton GrayMiddle Reliever1.00100416
TEXRobby AhlstromMiddle Reliever1.00202519
TEXChase SilsethMiddle Reliever0.23401612
Audit rule catalog
rulestatuscriticalerrorwarningpassdescription
BATTING_REALISMgood0004Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUMgood0004Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHgood0002Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHgood0002Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCHgood0002Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHgood0002Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDgood0001Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGEgood0005Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXinfo0002Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEgood0002Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKgood0002Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTgood0002Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONinfo0000Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXinfo0000Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDgood0002Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgood0001game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSEgood0001Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHgood0001Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCHgood0001Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICYgood0001One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgood0001game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCgood0001Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGEgood0001Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNTgood0001Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTSnot triggered0000Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMSgood0001Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCEgood0001Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITSgood0001Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNSgood0001Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSISgood0003Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILgood0001Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSgood0004H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCHgood0002Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSIONgood0001Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSgood0001Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISMgood0004Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUMgood0008Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHgood0002Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHgood0004Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITYgood0001Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHgood0003prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGEgood0004Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONinfo0000When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETEgood0001Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORTnot triggered0000Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINALgood0002Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTgood0001Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIEgood0001Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHgood0001score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDERgood0001Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACEgood0001Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENTgood0004Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYSnot triggered0000Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFTwarning0010Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORDgood0002team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCHgood0001total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCHgood0001winner field agrees with the final score.