MLB JSON Audit Report

Generated 2026-08-18 21:41:55. This single HTML file audits only the selected game date. The default view focuses on actionable problems first; detailed checks, passed checks, batting, pitching, pitch counts, and the rule catalog stay available in collapsible sections.

0Critical
0Error
0Warn
100Pass
7Info

20260818_LAD@COL

20260818_LAD@COL.json • 2026-08-18

LAD 5 - COL 4
PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
All findings - complete audit trail
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentCOLCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONCOL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONLAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCOLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCOL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=11; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=6).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCOLCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXCOL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=2; Cole Carrigg: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Willi Castro: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0; Connor Norby: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jordan Beck: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Braxton Fulford: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Mickey Moniak: AB current=3 box=5, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLADCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=7, sim=5).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLADCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXLAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Andy Pages: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Tommy Edman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: H current=1 box=0; Kyle Tucker: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASSbattingcurrentCOLBATTING_REALISMcurrent:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentLADBATTING_REALISMcurrent:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationCOLBATTING_REALISMsimulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationLADBATTING_REALISMsimulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentCOLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentLADBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationCOLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationLADBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCOLBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:COL batting walks match LAD pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCOLBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:COL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCOLBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:COL batting hits match LAD pitching: 11.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCOLBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:COL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCOLPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:COL PA=42 matches LAD BF=42.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCOLRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting walks match COL pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting home runs match COL pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting hits match COL pitching: 11.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 9.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:LAD PA=40 matches COL BF=40.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.689 -> 0.616 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.688605, 'sample_size': 276, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5435, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.616052, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaCOLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCOL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaLADCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCOLCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPECOL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCOLCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKCOL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCOLCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTCOL current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCOLCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDCOL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPELAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKLAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTLAD current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDLAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.488/0.666.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: LAD 11, COL 11.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: LAD 5 - COL 4.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 4 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 4 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-07-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-07-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'COL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 4, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260817', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'COL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260817_LAD@COL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260708', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260708_COL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260707', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260707_COL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260706', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260706_COL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 5 - 3 COL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 5 - 4 COL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0603, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.3991, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.5676, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-08-18.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename matches game_id: 20260818_LAD@COL.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: LAD@COL.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -10.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 10.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0577, 'away_run_delta': 0.0577, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}]}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0313371340493393}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.029643235139205516}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02938075707331349}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028598224640202723}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02779260825577858}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.08475869293178533, '1': 0.13942817117837397, '2': 0.1846850824018722, '3': 0.1969827111568042, '4': 0.16917625620652954, '5': 0.11699457278274521, '6': 0.06514889113756855, '7': 0.02921213822898093, '8': 0.010547139064431747, '9': 0.0030663449109083105}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04566958711121412, '1': 0.07778734039796074, '2': 0.11437652090138364, '3': 0.14518139420589896, '4': 0.15908570790455814, '5': 0.15048648160603598, '6': 0.12288812942963169, '7': 0.08663003705434509, '8': 0.052719731318872885, '9': 0.027696443049560444, '10': 0.012560904939682873, '11': 0.004917722080855272}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.2825, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.24, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.5676}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 5 - 3 COL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 5 - 4 COL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0603, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.3991, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.5676, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCOLPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHCOL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCOLPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHCOL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLADPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHLAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLADPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHLAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingcurrentCOLPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentCOLSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentLADPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentLADSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationCOLPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationCOLSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationLADPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationLADSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCOLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCOLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCOLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCOLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 5 - 4 COL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: LAD 5 - 4 COL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-4.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: LAD wins 5-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCOLRECENT_FORM_RANGECOL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCOLTEAM_RECENT_RECORDCOL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLADRECENT_FORM_RANGELAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLADTEAM_RECENT_RECORDLAD wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
Passed checks
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
PASSbattingcurrentCOLBATTING_REALISMcurrent:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingcurrentLADBATTING_REALISMcurrent:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationCOLBATTING_REALISMsimulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbattingsimulationLADBATTING_REALISMsimulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentCOLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalscurrentLADBATTING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationCOLBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSbatting_totalssimulationLADBATTING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCOLBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:COL batting walks match LAD pitching: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCOLBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:COL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCOLBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:COL batting hits match LAD pitching: 11.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCOLBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:COL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 6.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCOLPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:COL PA=42 matches LAD BF=42.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationCOLRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting walks match COL pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting home runs match COL pitching: 2.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_H_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting hits match COL pitching: 11.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADBAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHsimulation:LAD batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 9.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADPA_BF_MATCHsimulation:LAD PA=40 matches COL BF=40.
PASSboxscore_crosschecksimulationLADRUNS_MATCH_FINALsimulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASSconfidence_calibrationCONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDEmpirical confidence blend verified: 0.689 -> 0.616 at weight 0.500.{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.688605, 'sample_size': 276, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5435, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.616052, 'published_confidence': 0.56, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASScross_schemacross-schemaCOLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCOL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScross_schemacross-schemaLADCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCOLCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPECOL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCOLCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKCOL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCOLCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTCOL current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentCOLCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDCOL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPELAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKLAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTLAD current hitter names are populated.
PASScurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDLAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASSdata_leakageH2H_DATA_LEAKAGEAll head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEHome + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEaway_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEconfidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASSenhanced_predictionCONFIDENCE_RANGEhome_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISFinal total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASSenhanced_predictionLOW_SCORE_ANALYSISLow-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.488/0.666.
PASSfinal_decisionFINAL_DECISION_POLICYFinal decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASSinningsINNINGS_COUNTinning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASSinningsINNING_PLAY_SUMSDetailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASSinningsINNING_SEQUENCEInning numbers are sequential.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_HITSInning hits match batting totals: LAD 11, COL 11.
PASSinningsINNING_TOTAL_RUNSInning runs sum to final score: LAD 5 - COL 4.
PASSmatchup_recencyGUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCGuardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASSmatchup_recencyMATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILMatchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 4 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 4 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-08-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-07-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-07-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'COL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 4, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 4, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260817', 'away': 'LAD', 'home': 'COL', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260817_LAD@COL.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260708', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260708_COL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260707', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260707_COL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260706', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260706_COL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 5 - 3 COL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 5 - 4 COL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0603, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.3991, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.5676, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASSmetadataDATE_PARSEDate is valid ISO format: 2026-08-18.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHFilename matches game_id: 20260818_LAD@COL.
PASSmetadataFILENAME_TEAM_MATCHFilename teams match JSON teams: LAD@COL.
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSH2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -10.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 10.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.0, 'home_run_delta': -0.0577, 'away_run_delta': 0.0577, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -6.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}]}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSScore distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.0313371340493393}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.029643235139205516}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02938075707331349}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028598224640202723}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 5, 'probability': 0.02779260825577858}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.08475869293178533, '1': 0.13942817117837397, '2': 0.1846850824018722, '3': 0.1969827111568042, '4': 0.16917625620652954, '5': 0.11699457278274521, '6': 0.06514889113756855, '7': 0.02921213822898093, '8': 0.010547139064431747, '9': 0.0030663449109083105}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.04566958711121412, '1': 0.07778734039796074, '2': 0.11437652090138364, '3': 0.14518139420589896, '4': 0.15908570790455814, '5': 0.15048648160603598, '6': 0.12288812942963169, '7': 0.08663003705434509, '8': 0.052719731318872885, '9': 0.027696443049560444, '10': 0.012560904939682873, '11': 0.004917722080855272}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSeason/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.2825, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.24, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.5676}
PASSoptimization_roadmapOPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSSimulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 5 - 3 COL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 5 - 4 COL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0603, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.3991, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 2, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.5676, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASSpipelinePIPELINE_VERSIONPrediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASSpitch_by_pitchPITCH_DETAIL_SANITYPitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHaway pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169.
PASSpitch_countPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHhome pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCOLPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHCOL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationCOLPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHCOL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLADPITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHLAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASSpitch_countsimulationLADPITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHLAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169.
PASSpitcher_opponent_strengthPITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSPitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASSpitchingcurrentCOLPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentCOLSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingcurrentLADPITCHING_REALISMcurrent:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingcurrentLADSTARTER_PRESENTcurrent:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationCOLPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationCOLSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitchingsimulationLADPITCHING_REALISMsimulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASSpitchingsimulationLADSTARTER_PRESENTsimulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCOLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentCOLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalscurrentLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMcurrent:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCOLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationCOLPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASSpitching_totalssimulationLADPITCHING_TOTALS_SUMsimulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHEnhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 5 - 4 COL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation score matches final score: LAD 5 - 4 COL.
PASSprediction_comparisonPREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHInning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-4.
PASSprediction_comparisonSIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACESimulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASSprobabilityCONFIDENCE_RANGEEnhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEaway recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASSrecent_formRECENT_FORM_RANGEhome recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASSreportREPORT_COMPLETEAll findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASSschemaSCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTBoth major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASSscoreGAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgame_summary is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_NO_TIEFinal score has a clear winner: LAD wins 5-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHsimulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASSscoreSCORE_STEP_ORDERScore evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASSscoreTARGET_SCORE_DRIFTFinal score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASSscoreTOTAL_RUNS_MATCHtotal_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASSscoreWINNER_FIELD_MATCHwinner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASSscorecross-schemaCURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgame.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCOLRECENT_FORM_RANGECOL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentCOLTEAM_RECENT_RECORDCOL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLADRECENT_FORM_RANGELAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASSteam_recent_performancecurrentLADTEAM_RECENT_RECORDLAD wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
Info/context findings
SeverityCategorySourceTeamPlayerRuleMessageValueExpected
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentCOLCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONCOL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_payloadcurrentLADCURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONLAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCOLCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXCOL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=11; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=6).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaCOLCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXCOL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=2; Cole Carrigg: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Willi Castro: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0; Connor Norby: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jordan Beck: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Braxton Fulford: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Mickey Moniak: AB current=3 box=5, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLADCURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXLAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=7, sim=5).New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFOcurrent_vs_finalcross-schemaLADCURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXLAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Andy Pages: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Tommy Edman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: H current=1 box=0; Kyle Tucker: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFOscore_reconciliationRECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONNo score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
Score evolution
stepaway_runshome_runsconfidencedescription
historical_ml6.371343135833745.103677749633789Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied65Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction430.560Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment53Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review53Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target53Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result54Final inning-by-inning simulation result
Inning-by-inning linescore
team123456789RH
LAD000000032511
COL000001300411
Team totals - current + final simulation
srcteamtypePAABH2B3BHRRBIRBBSOSFHBPSBCSIPERBFPitches
currentLADbatting37900047290000
currentLADpitching1114469.0400
currentCOLbatting31900033090000
currentCOLpitching1125299.0500
simulationLADbatting3811102552900
simulationLADpitching1114469.0442169
simulationCOLbatting3711011444610
simulationCOLpitching1125299.0540166
Batting lines - current + final simulation
srcteamorderposnamePAABH2B3BHRRRBIBBSOHBPAVG
currentLADDHShohei Ohtani041000111100.250
currentLAD3BMax Muncy041000111100.250
currentLADCFAndy Pages051000110100.200
currentLADSSMookie Betts051000110100.200
currentLAD1BFreddie Freeman041000100100.250
currentLAD2BTommy Edman041000100100.250
currentLADLFTeoscar Hernández041000000100.250
currentLADRFKyle Tucker041000100100.250
currentLADCHunter Feduccia031000000100.333
currentCOLDHJake McCarthy041000110100.250
currentCOLCFCole Carrigg041000110100.250
currentCOL3BWilli Castro041000100100.250
currentCOL2BConnor Norby031000000100.333
currentCOLRFJordan Beck031000000100.333
currentCOLCBraxton Fulford031000000100.333
currentCOLLFMickey Moniak031000010100.333
currentCOL1BTJ Rumfield041000000100.250
currentCOLSSEzequiel Tovar031000000100.333
simulationLAD1DHShohei Ohtani551000100100.200
simulationLAD21BFreddie Freeman552001120100.400
simulationLAD3CFAndy Pages542101131200.500
simulationLAD43BMax Muncy551000000000.200
simulationLAD5SSMookie Betts440000000100.000
simulationLAD62BTommy Edman432000101000.667
simulationLAD7RFKyle Tucker442000100000.500
simulationLAD8LFTeoscar Hernández440000000100.000
simulationLAD9CHunter Feduccia441000000300.250
simulationCOL1DHJake McCarthy551001130200.200
simulationCOL2CFCole Carrigg553000100000.600
simulationCOL33BWilli Castro551000000100.200
simulationCOL41BTJ Rumfield520000112000.000
simulationCOL52BConnor Norby542000101000.500
simulationCOL6LFMickey Moniak551010000100.200
simulationCOL7RFJordan Beck442000000000.500
simulationCOL8CBraxton Fulford430000001100.000
simulationCOL9SSEzequiel Tovar441000000100.250
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
srcteamordernameroleIPHRERBBSOHRBFPitchessim_ERAseason_ERAseason_WHIP
currentLAD1Eric LauerStarter5.1711030001.694.671.24
currentLAD3Edwin DíazMiddle Reliever2.03332010013.509.882.27
currentLAD4Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever1.0000220000.002.911.22
currentLAD5Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever0.2100010000.002.200.92
currentCOL1Ryan FeltnerStarter4.1633150006.235.591.48
currentCOL2Brennan BernardinoMiddle Reliever1.2100110000.002.841.22
currentCOL3Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever1.02220110018.006.171.63
currentCOL4Jordan RomanoMiddle Reliever1.0000020000.004.581.53
currentCOL5Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever1.0200001000.005.851.66
simulationLAD1Eric LauerStarter5.171103023921.694.671.24
simulationLAD2Edwin DíazMiddle Reliever2.0333201114213.509.882.27
simulationLAD3Tanner ScottMiddle Reliever0.21000103140.002.200.92
simulationLAD4Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever1.00002205210.002.911.22
simulationCOL1Ryan FeltnerStarter4.163315020886.235.591.48
simulationCOL2Jordan RomanoMiddle Reliever1.00000203200.004.581.53
simulationCOL3Brennan BernardinoMiddle Reliever1.21001107200.002.841.22
simulationCOL4Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever1.022201151918.006.171.63
simulationCOL5Juan MejiaMiddle Reliever1.02000015190.005.851.66
Pitch count summary
teampitcherroleIPRHBBSOBFPitches
LADEric LauerStarter5.117032392
LADEdwin DíazMiddle Reliever2.033201142
LADAlex VesiaMiddle Reliever1.00022521
LADTanner ScottMiddle Reliever0.20101314
COLRyan FeltnerStarter4.136152088
COLBrennan BernardinoMiddle Reliever1.20111720
COLJimmy HergetMiddle Reliever1.02201519
COLJordan RomanoMiddle Reliever1.00002320
COLJuan MejiaMiddle Reliever1.00200519
Audit rule catalog
rulestatuscriticalerrorwarningpassdescription
BATTING_REALISMgood0004Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUMgood0004Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCHgood0002Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCHgood0002Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCHgood0002Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCHgood0002Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIEDgood0001Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGEgood0005Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOXinfo0002Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPEgood0002Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACKgood0002Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENTgood0002Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATIONinfo0000Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOXinfo0000Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZEDgood0002Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIMgood0001game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSEgood0001Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCHgood0001Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCHgood0001Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICYgood0001One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCHgood0001game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNCgood0001Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGEgood0001Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNTgood0001Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTSnot triggered0000Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMSgood0001Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCEgood0001Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITSgood0001Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNSgood0001Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSISgood0003Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAILgood0001Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUSgood0004H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCHgood0002Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSIONgood0001Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDSgood0001Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISMgood0004Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUMgood0008Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCHgood0002Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCHgood0004Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITYgood0001Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCHgood0003prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGEgood0004Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATIONinfo0000When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETEgood0001Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORTnot triggered0000Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINALgood0002Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENTgood0001Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIEgood0001Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCHgood0001score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDERgood0001Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACEgood0001Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENTgood0004Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYSnot triggered0000Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFTgood0001Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORDgood0002team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCHgood0001total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCHgood0001winner field agrees with the final score.