MLB JSON Audit Report

20260817_LAD@COL

20260817_LAD@COL.json • 2026-08-17

LAD 5 - COL 4

CRITICAL

Final simulation needs review: critical box-score inconsistencies remain. Risk score: 100.

CRITICAL 1ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 99INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
CRITICAL	Batting Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	1C / 0E / 0W	COL	current:COL has 1 hitter line(s) violating baseball constraints.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
CRITICAL	batting	current	COL		BATTING_REALISM	current:COL has 1 hitter line(s) violating baseball constraints.

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
CRITICAL	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL has 1 hitter line(s) violating baseball constraints.
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=6, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Willi Castro: RBI current=0 box=1; Jordan Beck: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cole Carrigg: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Adael Amador: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=3 box=0; Connor Norby: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Brett Sullivan: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jake McCarthy: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Tovar: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Andy Pages: AB current=5 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Freddie Freeman: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Tommy Edman: SO current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match LAD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match LAD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=37 matches LAD BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match COL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match COL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match COL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=38 matches COL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.533 -> 0.527 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.532689, 'sample_size': 303, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5215, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.527094, 'published_confidence': 0.527094, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.527.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.527.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.473.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.432/0.600.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 7, COL 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 5 - COL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-07-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-07-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260708', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260708_COL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260707', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260707_COL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260706', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260706_COL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'LAD 5 - 2 COL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 5 - 4 COL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0335, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.16, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 2, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4906, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-17.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260817_LAD@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@COL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -13.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 13.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.075, 'away_run_delta': 0.075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.032154135267729096}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03183122215229013}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029903963410280177}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02960364801046042}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028480007508991073}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0721732871173934, '1': 0.12008336633597204, '2': 0.1645827845739297, '3': 0.18581515880074737, '4': 0.17281166679141696, '5': 0.13239151759105536, '6': 0.08354922872721429, '7': 0.04343300850572427, '8': 0.018599127178903607, '9': 0.0065608543776430545}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.062026403904168935, '1': 0.10412569391840493, '2': 0.14658322493301282, '3': 0.17304366056705042, '4': 0.17130584155635692, '5': 0.1422111700561695, '6': 0.09900116479907745, '7': 0.05779522473143303, '8': 0.028293629812977967, '9': 0.01161530010173693, '10': 0.003998685619610903}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.2825, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.02, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.4906}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'LAD 5 - 2 COL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 5 - 4 COL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0335, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.16, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 2, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4906, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 5 - 4 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 5 - 4 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.527.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match LAD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match LAD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=37 matches LAD BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match COL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match COL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match COL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=38 matches COL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.533 -> 0.527 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.532689, 'sample_size': 303, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5215, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.527094, 'published_confidence': 0.527094, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.527.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.527.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.473.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.432/0.600.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 7, COL 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 5 - COL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAD'}, {'date': '2026-07-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-07-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260708', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260708_COL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260707', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260707_COL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260706', 'away': 'COL', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260706_COL@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'LAD 5 - 2 COL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 5 - 4 COL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0335, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.16, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 2, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4906, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-17.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260817_LAD@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@COL.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 5, 'sample_weight': 0.0577, 'home_net_margin': -13.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 13.0, 'home_average_margin': -2.6, 'home_run_delta': -0.075, 'away_run_delta': 0.075, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': 1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -9.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.032154135267729096}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03183122215229013}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.029903963410280177}, {'home_runs': 4, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.02960364801046042}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.028480007508991073}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.0721732871173934, '1': 0.12008336633597204, '2': 0.1645827845739297, '3': 0.18581515880074737, '4': 0.17281166679141696, '5': 0.13239151759105536, '6': 0.08354922872721429, '7': 0.04343300850572427, '8': 0.018599127178903607, '9': 0.0065608543776430545}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.062026403904168935, '1': 0.10412569391840493, '2': 0.14658322493301282, '3': 0.17304366056705042, '4': 0.17130584155635692, '5': 0.1422111700561695, '6': 0.09900116479907745, '7': 0.05779522473143303, '8': 0.028293629812977967, '9': 0.01161530010173693, '10': 0.003998685619610903}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': -2.2825, 'recent_quality_edge': -0.02, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': -1.4906}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'LAD 5 - 2 COL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 5 - 4 COL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.0335, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.16, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 2, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'LAD', 'model_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': False, 'model_margin': 3, 'simulation_margin': 1, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.4906, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 5 - 4 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 5 - 4 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.527.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=6, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Willi Castro: RBI current=0 box=1; Jordan Beck: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cole Carrigg: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Adael Amador: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=3 box=0; Connor Norby: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Brett Sullivan: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jake McCarthy: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Tovar: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Andy Pages: AB current=5 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Freddie Freeman: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Tommy Edman: SO current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.145107746124268	4.132572174072266		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.527	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	2		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	2		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	2		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	0	0	2	0	2	0	1	0	0	5	7
COL	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	LAD	batting	35	9	0	0	0	3	5	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		8			0		4	2	4					9.0	4	0	0
current	COL	batting	31	9	0	0	1	5	6	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	COL	pitching		7			2		5	4	7					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	LAD	batting	34	7	2	0	2	5	5	4	7	0	0
simulation	LAD	pitching		8			0		4	2	4					9.0	4	37	165
simulation	COL	batting	35	8	1	0	0	4	4	2	4	0	0
simulation	COL	pitching		7			2		5	4	7					9.0	5	38	164

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	LAD		DH	Shohei Ohtani	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		CF	Andy Pages	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	LAD		SS	Mookie Betts	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		3B	Max Muncy	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		2B	Tommy Edman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		C	Hunter Feduccia	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	COL		3B	Willi Castro	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	COL		RF	Jordan Beck	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	COL		CF	Cole Carrigg	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		DH	Adael Amador	0	3	1	0	1	3	3	2	1	0.333
current	COL		2B	Connor Norby	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	COL		C	Brett Sullivan	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	COL		LF	Jake McCarthy	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	COL		SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	COL		1B	TJ Rumfield	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	LAD	1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	5	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.200
simulation	LAD	2	1B	Freddie Freeman	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	LAD	3	CF	Andy Pages	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	LAD	4	3B	Max Muncy	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	LAD	5	SS	Mookie Betts	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	LAD	6	RF	Kyle Tucker	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	LAD	7	2B	Tommy Edman	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	8	LF	Teoscar Hernández	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	9	C	Hunter Feduccia	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	COL	1	LF	Jake McCarthy	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	COL	2	RF	Jordan Beck	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.667
simulation	COL	3	CF	Cole Carrigg	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	COL	4	3B	Willi Castro	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	COL	5	1B	TJ Rumfield	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	COL	6	2B	Connor Norby	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	COL	7	DH	Adael Amador	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	COL	8	C	Brett Sullivan	4	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	COL	9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	LAD	1	Blake Snell	Starter	4.1	4	3	3	2	3	0	0	0	6.23	5.00	1.33
current	LAD	2	Edgardo Henriquez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.12	1.08
current	LAD	3	Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	8.53	2.13
current	LAD	4	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.98	1.25
current	LAD	5	Jack Dreyer	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.04	1.01
current	LAD	6	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.20	0.92
current	COL	1	Tomoyuki Sugano	Starter	5.2	6	4	4	2	4	1	0	0	6.35	4.43	1.25
current	COL	2	Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	2.84	1.22
current	COL	3	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	6.17	1.63
current	COL	4	Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.58	1.53
current	COL	5	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	5.44	1.60
simulation	LAD	1	Blake Snell	Starter	4.1	4	3	3	2	3	0	19	80	6.23	5.00	1.33
simulation	LAD	2	Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	5	19	9.00	8.53	2.13
simulation	LAD	3	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	5	20	0.00	2.20	0.92
simulation	LAD	4	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	15	0.00	2.98	1.25
simulation	LAD	5	Edgardo Henriquez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	17	0.00	3.12	1.08
simulation	LAD	6	Jack Dreyer	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	14	0.00	3.04	1.01
simulation	COL	1	Tomoyuki Sugano	Starter	5.2	6	4	4	2	4	1	25	97	6.35	4.43	1.25
simulation	COL	2	Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	16	0.00	4.58	1.53
simulation	COL	3	Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	4	16	9.00	2.84	1.22
simulation	COL	4	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	18	0.00	6.17	1.63
simulation	COL	5	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	17	0.00	5.44	1.60

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
LAD	Blake Snell	Starter	4.1	3	4	2	3	19	80
LAD	Edgardo Henriquez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	17
LAD	Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	0	5	19
LAD	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	0	0	3	15
LAD	Jack Dreyer	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	14
LAD	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	1	5	20
COL	Tomoyuki Sugano	Starter	5.2	4	6	2	4	25	97
COL	Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16
COL	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	18
COL	Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	16
COL	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	1	0	2	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	critical	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	critical	1	3	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	0	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	0	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	0	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	0	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	0	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.