MLB JSON Audit Report

20260815_KC@LAA

20260815_KC@LAA.json • 2026-08-15

KC 5 - LAA 2

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 100INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jac Caglianone: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Salvador Perez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Tyler Tolbert: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: H current=1 box=0; Luke Maile: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=16; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Moisés Ballesteros: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Denzer Guzman: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Mike Trout: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Zach Neto: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Nolan Schanuel: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Adam Frazier: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=39 matches LAA BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match KC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match KC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 16.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=37 matches KC BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.604 -> 0.570 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.604337, 'sample_size': 328, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5366, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.570469, 'published_confidence': 0.570469, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.570.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.570.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.430.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.465/0.639.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 4, LAA 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 5 - LAA 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: KC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for KC.	{'winner_confidence': 0.570469, 'h2h_net_margin': 14, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260814', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260814_KC@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-15.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260815_KC@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@LAA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': -17.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 17.0, 'home_average_margin': -4.25, 'home_run_delta': -0.1062, 'away_run_delta': 0.1062, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -11.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.034708959281766545}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.034118320975947594}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03293666142802202}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03237618210776195}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02955039755558893}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.08740703220696117, '1': 0.14343852127747547, '2': 0.18862815636435482, '3': 0.19877810059628326, '4': 0.1678617895124447, '5': 0.11359427830100945, '6': 0.06160023380164281, '7': 0.026768840509325084, '8': 0.009321762968372137, '9': 0.002601284462130936}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06315993118979002, '1': 0.10592154880968904, '2': 0.1486602269915314, '3': 0.17461158536905513, '4': 0.17164024041683362, '5': 0.14119943784108696, '6': 0.09721082210205458, '7': 0.056009804785263954, '8': 0.027007307972684923, '9': 0.010898489986537863, '10': 0.0036806045354724204}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2418, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.02, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1642}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 3 LAA', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'KC 5 - 2 LAA', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1129, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.33, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'KC', 'model_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1642, 'winner': 'KC', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 4 - 3 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 5 - 2 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: KC wins 5-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=KC, simulation=KC, published=KC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.570.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: KC wins 5-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: KC wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 5-2 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: KC wins 5-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=39 matches LAA BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match KC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match KC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 16.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=37 matches KC BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	confidence_calibration			CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	Empirical confidence blend verified: 0.604 -> 0.570 at weight 0.500.	{'method': 'empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1', 'applied': True, 'reason': 'raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate', 'raw_confidence': 0.604337, 'sample_size': 328, 'empirical_hit_rate': 0.5366, 'empirical_weight': 0.5, 'blended_confidence': 0.570469, 'published_confidence': 0.570469, 'published_after_governors': True}
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.570.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.570.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.430.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.465/0.639.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 4, LAA 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 5 - LAA 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: KC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for KC.	{'winner_confidence': 0.570469, 'h2h_net_margin': 14, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 1, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260814', 'away': 'KC', 'home': 'LAA', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260814_KC@LAA.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-15.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260815_KC@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@LAA.
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	H2H base feature is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1', 'available': True, 'sample_size': 4, 'sample_weight': 0.05, 'home_net_margin': -17.0, 'absolute_net_margin': 17.0, 'home_average_margin': -4.25, 'home_run_delta': -0.1062, 'away_run_delta': 0.1062, 'evidence': [{'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -1.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -2.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -11.0}, {'game_id': None, 'home_margin': -3.0}]}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Score distribution widening is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'most_likely': [{'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.034708959281766545}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.034118320975947594}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 3, 'probability': 0.03293666142802202}, {'home_runs': 2, 'away_runs': 4, 'probability': 0.03237618210776195}, {'home_runs': 3, 'away_runs': 2, 'probability': 0.02955039755558893}], 'home_distribution': {'0': 0.08740703220696117, '1': 0.14343852127747547, '2': 0.18862815636435482, '3': 0.19877810059628326, '4': 0.1678617895124447, '5': 0.11359427830100945, '6': 0.06160023380164281, '7': 0.026768840509325084, '8': 0.009321762968372137, '9': 0.002601284462130936}, 'away_distribution': {'0': 0.06315993118979002, '1': 0.10592154880968904, '2': 0.1486602269915314, '3': 0.17461158536905513, '4': 0.17164024041683362, '5': 0.14119943784108696, '6': 0.09721082210205458, '7': 0.056009804785263954, '8': 0.027007307972684923, '9': 0.010898489986537863, '10': 0.0036806045354724204}, 'model': 'overdispersed_score_distribution', 'variance_multiplier': 1.65, 'variance_floor': 2.75, 'roadmap_status': 'implemented_above_requested_1.4x'}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Season/recent-form quality blend is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'method': 'season_recent10_quality_blend_v1', 'recent_window': 10, 'season_quality_edge': 0.2418, 'recent_quality_edge': 0.02, 'season_weight': 0.65, 'recent_weight': 0.35, 'recent_reliability': 1.0, 'alignment': 'aligned', 'blended_quality_edge': 0.1642}
PASS	optimization_roadmap			OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	Simulation flip control is implemented and its runtime trace passed.	{'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 3 LAA', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'KC 5 - 2 LAA', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'sim_flipped_pre_winner': False, 'sim_flip_trusted': False, 'sim_flip_policy': 'diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported', 'independent_margin_support': False, 'independent_margin_support_evidence': {'pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away': -0.1129, 'recent_form_edge_home_minus_away': -0.33, 'winner_direction': 'away', 'thresholds': {'pitcher_matchup': 0.35, 'recent_form': 0.75}}, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'KC', 'model_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner': 'KC', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'independent_margin_support': False, 'margin_widening_capped': True, 'model_margin': 1, 'simulation_margin': 3, 'simulation_usage': 'same_winner_margin_capped', 'score_source': 'simulation_total_with_model_margin_cap', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1642, 'winner': 'KC', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 4 - 3 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 5 - 2 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: KC wins 5-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=KC, simulation=KC, published=KC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.570.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: KC wins 5-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: KC wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 5-2 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: KC wins 5-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jac Caglianone: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Salvador Perez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Tyler Tolbert: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: H current=1 box=0; Luke Maile: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=16; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Moisés Ballesteros: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Denzer Guzman: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Mike Trout: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Zach Neto: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Nolan Schanuel: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Adam Frazier: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.097630977630615	4.18576717376709		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.570	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
KC	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	5	4
LAA	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	KC	batting	32	9	0	0	0	2	3	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		5			0		2	2	16					10.0	2	0	0
current	LAA	batting	32	9	0	0	0	2	2	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	LAA	pitching		4			1		5	4	11					10.0	5	0	0
simulation	KC	batting	34	4	2	0	1	5	5	4	11	0	1
simulation	KC	pitching		5			0		2	2	16					10.0	2	37	158
simulation	LAA	batting	34	5	1	0	0	2	2	2	16	1	0
simulation	LAA	pitching		4			1		5	4	11					10.0	5	39	165

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	KC		1B	Jac Caglianone	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		DH	Salvador Perez	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		LF	Isaac Collins	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		3B	Nick Loftin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		CF	Tyler Tolbert	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		2B	Michael Massey	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		C	Luke Maile	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		RF	Starling Marte	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		LF	Wade Meckler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		DH	Moisés Ballesteros	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		RF	Josh Lowe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		3B	Denzer Guzman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		CF	Mike Trout	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	LAA		SS	Zach Neto	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		1B	Nolan Schanuel	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		2B	Adam Frazier	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		C	Tyler Heineman	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	KC	1	3B	Nick Loftin	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	KC	2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	KC	3	1B	Jac Caglianone	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	KC	4	DH	Salvador Perez	4	4	2	2	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	KC	5	LF	Isaac Collins	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	KC	6	2B	Michael Massey	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	7	RF	Starling Marte	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	KC	8	C	Luke Maile	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	9	CF	Tyler Tolbert	4	3	1	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	LAA	1	LF	Wade Meckler	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	2	CF	Mike Trout	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	3	1B	Nolan Schanuel	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	LAA	4	SS	Zach Neto	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	5	DH	Moisés Ballesteros	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	6	RF	Josh Lowe	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	7	3B	Denzer Guzman	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	LAA	8	2B	Adam Frazier	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	9	C	Tyler Heineman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	KC	1	Randy Dobnak	Starter	5.1	4	2	2	1	7	0	0	0	3.38	2.00	1.33
current	KC	2	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	6.23	1.57
current	KC	4	Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.17	1.21
current	KC	5	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0.00	3.68	1.39
current	KC	7	Jose Cuas	Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00
current	LAA	1	Reid Detmers	Starter	5.2	2	1	1	0	6	0	0	0	1.59	4.00	1.10
current	LAA	2	Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	2.1	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	3.86	2.00	0.81
current	LAA	4	José Fermin	Middle Reliever	2.0	1	3	3	2	4	1	0	0	13.50	3.05	1.26
simulation	KC	1	Randy Dobnak	Starter	5.1	4	2	2	1	7	0	21	88	3.38	2.00	1.33
simulation	KC	2	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	5	20	0.00	6.23	1.57
simulation	KC	3	Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	17	0.00	4.17	1.21
simulation	KC	4	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	0	5	21	0.00	3.68	1.39
simulation	KC	5	Jose Cuas	Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	12	0.00	1.64	1.45
simulation	LAA	1	Reid Detmers	Starter	5.2	2	1	1	0	6	0	20	89	1.59	4.00	1.10
simulation	LAA	2	Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	2.1	1	1	1	2	1	0	10	40	3.86	2.00	0.81
simulation	LAA	3	José Fermin	Middle Reliever	2.0	1	3	3	2	4	1	9	36	13.50	3.05	1.26

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
KC	Randy Dobnak	Starter	5.1	2	4	1	7	21	88
KC	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	2	5	20
KC	Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	17
KC	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	3	5	21
KC	Jose Cuas	Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	12
LAA	Reid Detmers	Starter	5.2	1	2	0	6	20	89
LAA	Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	2.1	1	1	2	1	10	40
LAA	José Fermin	Middle Reliever	2.0	3	1	2	4	9	36

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_CALIBRATION_APPLIED	good	1	Empirical confidence blending uses the requested sample weight and remains between raw confidence and empirical hit rate.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
OPTIMIZATION_ROADMAP_STATUS	good	4	H2H, score-distribution, simulation-flip, and recent-form roadmap signals are explicitly traced and satisfy their configured safeguards.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260815_TEX@OAK

20260815_TEX@OAK.json • 2026-08-15

TEX 6 - OAK 3