MLB JSON Audit Report

20260807_ATL@NYY

20260807_ATL@NYY.json • 2026-08-07

ATL 4 - NYY 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 95INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=3; Lane Thomas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Sean Murphy: H current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Matt Olson: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ha-Seong Kim: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ben Rice: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Spencer Jones: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Luis García Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Heliot Ramos: H current=1 box=0; Trent Grisham: AB current=5 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Austin Wells: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match NYY pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=36 matches NYY BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=34 matches ATL BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.450/0.622.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 6, NYY 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 4 - NYY 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ATL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_ATL@NYY.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@NYY.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 4 - 3 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 4 - 3 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=ATL, simulation=ATL, published=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match NYY pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=36 matches NYY BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=34 matches ATL BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.450/0.622.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 6, NYY 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 4 - NYY 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ATL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_ATL@NYY.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@NYY.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 4 - 3 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 4 - 3 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=ATL, simulation=ATL, published=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=3; Lane Thomas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Sean Murphy: H current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Matt Olson: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ha-Seong Kim: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ben Rice: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Spencer Jones: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Luis García Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Heliot Ramos: H current=1 box=0; Trent Grisham: AB current=5 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Austin Wells: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.136969566345215	5.0054240226745605		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.640	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	4	6
NYY	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	3	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ATL	batting	34	8	0	0	0	5	5	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		5			1		3	2	10					9.0	3	0	0
current	NYY	batting	33	9	0	0	0	3	2	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	NYY	pitching		6			2		4	3	8					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	ATL	batting	33	6	1	0	2	4	4	3	8	0	0
simulation	ATL	pitching		5			1		3	2	10					9.0	3	34	141
simulation	NYY	batting	32	5	2	0	1	3	3	2	10	0	0
simulation	NYY	pitching		6			2		4	3	8					9.0	4	36	160

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	ATL		DH	Drake Baldwin	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		CF	Mauricio Dubón	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	ATL		LF	Lane Thomas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		C	Sean Murphy	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		SS	Ha-Seong Kim	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	ATL		RF	Michael Harris II	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		DH	Ben Rice	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	NYY		2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		RF	Spencer Jones	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		1B	Luis García Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		LF	Heliot Ramos	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		CF	Trent Grisham	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.200
current	NYY		SS	George Lombard Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		C	Austin Wells	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		3B	Ryan McMahon	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	ATL	1	DH	Drake Baldwin	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	2	2B	Ozzie Albies	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	ATL	3	1B	Matt Olson	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	4	CF	Mauricio Dubón	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.250
simulation	ATL	5	LF	Lane Thomas	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	6	3B	Austin Riley	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	ATL	7	C	Sean Murphy	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	ATL	8	SS	Ha-Seong Kim	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	ATL	9	CF	Michael Harris II	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0.250
simulation	NYY	1	CF	Trent Grisham	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	2	DH	Ben Rice	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	NYY	3	LF	Heliot Ramos	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	NYY	4	1B	Luis García Jr.	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	NYY	5	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	NYY	6	RF	Spencer Jones	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	NYY	7	SS	George Lombard Jr.	4	4	2	1	1	1	2	0	1	0.500
simulation	NYY	8	3B	Ryan McMahon	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	9	C	Austin Wells	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ATL	1	Tyler Mahle	Starter	5.1	5	3	3	2	10	1	0	0	5.06	5.13	1.39
current	ATL	2	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.42	1.10
current	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.06	0.73
current	ATL	4	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.63	1.12
current	NYY	1	Max Fried	Starter	5.1	4	3	3	2	5	1	0	0	5.06	3.12	0.99
current	NYY	2	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.40	1.10
current	NYY	3	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.54	1.05
current	NYY	4	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	9.00	2.76	1.33
current	NYY	5	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.02	1.06
simulation	ATL	1	Tyler Mahle	Starter	5.1	5	3	3	2	10	1	23	91	5.06	5.13	1.39
simulation	ATL	2	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.63	1.12
simulation	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	16	0.00	2.06	0.73
simulation	ATL	4	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	21	0.00	2.42	1.10
simulation	NYY	1	Max Fried	Starter	5.1	4	3	3	2	5	1	22	87	5.06	3.12	0.99
simulation	NYY	2	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	18	0.00	2.54	1.05
simulation	NYY	3	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	1	5	20	9.00	2.76	1.33
simulation	NYY	4	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	16	0.00	1.40	1.10
simulation	NYY	5	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	3	19	0.00	2.02	1.06

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ATL	Tyler Mahle	Starter	5.1	3	5	2	10	23	91
ATL	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	21
ATL	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
ATL	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
NYY	Max Fried	Starter	5.1	3	4	2	5	22	87
NYY	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	16
NYY	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	18
NYY	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	5	20
NYY	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	0	1	3	19

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260807_BAL@TEX

20260807_BAL@TEX.json • 2026-08-07

BAL 3 - TEX 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 95INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=29, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=13).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gunnar Henderson: R current=1 box=0; Colton Cowser: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Pete Alonso: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jackson Holliday: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Yohel Pozo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Coby Mayo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: SO current=1 box=0; Dylan Beavers: H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=2, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Evan Carter: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Burger: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Nicky Lopez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Elias Díaz: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Ezequiel Duran: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=4 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match TEX pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match TEX pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=33 matches TEX BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match BAL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match BAL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match BAL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=36 matches BAL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.489.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.511.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.511.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.502/0.683.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 6, TEX 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 3 - TEX 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TEX; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; latest-series reversal condition was suppressed.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'opponent_team': 'BAL', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'BAL'}, {'date': '2026-03-31', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-03-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'TEX'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TEX', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TEX', 'final_score_winner': 'TEX', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BAL 3 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BAL 3 - 5 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.013, 'winner': 'TEX', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_BAL@TEX.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@TEX.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 3 - 5 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 3 - 5 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TEX, simulation=TEX, published=TEX.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.511.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TEX wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TEX wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match TEX pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match TEX pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=33 matches TEX BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match BAL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match BAL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match BAL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=36 matches BAL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.489.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.511.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.511.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.502/0.683.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 6, TEX 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 3 - TEX 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TEX; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; latest-series reversal condition was suppressed.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'opponent_team': 'BAL', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'BAL'}, {'date': '2026-03-31', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-03-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'TEX'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TEX', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TEX', 'final_score_winner': 'TEX', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BAL 3 - 4 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BAL 3 - 5 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'TEX', 'model_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.013, 'winner': 'TEX', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_BAL@TEX.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@TEX.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 3 - 5 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 3 - 5 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TEX, simulation=TEX, published=TEX.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.511.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TEX wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TEX wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=29, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=13).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gunnar Henderson: R current=1 box=0; Colton Cowser: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Pete Alonso: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jackson Holliday: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Yohel Pozo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Coby Mayo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: SO current=1 box=0; Dylan Beavers: H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=2, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Evan Carter: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Corey Seager: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Burger: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Nicky Lopez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Elias Díaz: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Ezequiel Duran: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=4 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.6065423488616943	5.329667091369629		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.511	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	6
TEX	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	2	5	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	BAL	batting	29	9	0	0	0	1	2	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	BAL	pitching		8			3		5	3	10					8.0	5	0	0
current	TEX	batting	32	9	0	0	0	2	2	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	TEX	pitching		6			1		3	0	13					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	BAL	batting	33	6	1	0	1	3	3	0	13	0	0
simulation	BAL	pitching		8			3		5	3	10					8.0	5	36	160
simulation	TEX	batting	33	8	1	0	3	5	5	3	10	0	0
simulation	TEX	pitching		6			1		3	0	13					9.0	3	33	146

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	BAL		DH	Gunnar Henderson	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	BAL		C	Colton Cowser	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		1B	Pete Alonso	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	BAL		2B	Jackson Holliday	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		3B	Yohel Pozo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		SS	Coby Mayo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		LF	Leody Taveras	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		CF	Dylan Beavers	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		RF	Tyler O'Neill	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	TEX		DH	Evan Carter	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	TEX		C	Corey Seager	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	TEX		1B	Jake Burger	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	TEX		2B	Nicky Lopez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	TEX		3B	Elias Díaz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	TEX		SS	Ezequiel Duran	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	TEX		LF	Wyatt Langford	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	TEX		CF	Brandon Nimmo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	TEX		RF	Joc Pederson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	BAL	1	CF	Colton Cowser	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	3	0.250
simulation	BAL	2	SS	Gunnar Henderson	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	3	2B	Jackson Holliday	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	BAL	4	1B	Pete Alonso	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	BAL	5	C	Yohel Pozo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	BAL	6	3B	Coby Mayo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	BAL	7	CF	Leody Taveras	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	BAL	8	RF	Dylan Beavers	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	BAL	9	RF	Tyler O'Neill	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	TEX	1	CF	Evan Carter	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TEX	2	SS	Corey Seager	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0.250
simulation	TEX	3	2B	Nicky Lopez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	4	1B	Jake Burger	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	TEX	5	C	Elias Díaz	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	TEX	6	SS	Ezequiel Duran	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TEX	7	RF	Brandon Nimmo	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	TEX	8	LF	Wyatt Langford	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	TEX	9	DH	Joc Pederson	4	3	1	0	1	1	2	1	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	BAL	1	Shane Baz	Starter	5.2	5	2	2	2	9	1	0	0	3.18	3.86	1.37
current	BAL	2	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.82	0.81
current	BAL	3	Grant Wolfram	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	13.50	4.05	1.23
current	BAL	4	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.96	0.88
current	BAL	5	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		4.05	1.44
current	BAL	6	Josh Walker	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	2	2	1	0	1	0	0		4.09	1.27
current	TEX	1	Nathan Eovaldi	Starter	5.2	5	3	3	0	8	1	0	0	4.76	4.31	1.21
current	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.41	0.63
current	TEX	3	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.50	1.21
current	TEX	4	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.24	1.24
simulation	BAL	1	Shane Baz	Starter	5.2	5	2	2	2	9	1	25	95	3.18	3.86	1.37
simulation	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13		4.05	1.44
simulation	BAL	3	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	1.82	0.81
simulation	BAL	4	Grant Wolfram	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	1	3	15	13.50	4.05	1.23
simulation	BAL	5	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.96	0.88
simulation	BAL	6	Josh Walker	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	2	2	1	0	1	2	11		4.09	1.27
simulation	TEX	1	Nathan Eovaldi	Starter	5.2	5	3	3	0	8	1	22	93	4.76	4.31	1.21
simulation	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	19	0.00	1.41	0.63
simulation	TEX	3	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	3.50	1.21
simulation	TEX	4	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	3.24	1.24

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
BAL	Shane Baz	Starter	5.2	2	5	2	9	25	95
BAL	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
BAL	Grant Wolfram	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	0	0	3	15
BAL	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	0	0	3	13
BAL	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
BAL	Josh Walker	Middle Reliever	0.0	2	1	1	0	2	11
TEX	Nathan Eovaldi	Starter	5.2	3	5	0	8	22	93
TEX	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	19
TEX	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	17
TEX	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260807_CHC@KC

20260807_CHC@KC.json • 2026-08-07

CHC 5 - KC 2

CRITICAL

Final simulation needs review: critical box-score inconsistencies remain. Risk score: 140.

CRITICAL 1ERROR 1WARN 0PASS 93INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
CRITICAL	Boxscore Crosscheck Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	1C / 1E / 0W	CHC	simulation:CHC batting hits 4 != KC pitching H 5. simulation:CHC PA=37 != KC BF=38.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
CRITICAL	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC		BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits 4 != KC pitching H 5.	4	5
ERROR	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC		PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=37 != KC BF=38.	37	38

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
CRITICAL	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits 4 != KC pitching H 5.	4	5
ERROR	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=37 != KC BF=38.	37	38
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=39, sim=31; H: current=10, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=6 box=3, H current=2 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Alex Bregman: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Michael Busch: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Carson Kelly: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Nico Hoerner: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jac Caglianone: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Carter Jensen: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: H current=1 box=0; Tyler Tolbert: AB current=3 box=2, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1; Michael Massey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match KC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match CHC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=35 matches CHC BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.474/0.650.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 4, KC 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 5 - KC 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CHC.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_CHC@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@KC.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 5 - 2 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 5 - 2 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CHC wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match KC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match CHC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=35 matches CHC BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.474/0.650.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 4, KC 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 5 - KC 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CHC.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_CHC@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@KC.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 5 - 2 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 5 - 2 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CHC, simulation=CHC, published=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CHC wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=39, sim=31; H: current=10, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=6 box=3, H current=2 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Alex Bregman: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Michael Busch: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Carson Kelly: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Nico Hoerner: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jac Caglianone: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Carter Jensen: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: H current=1 box=0; Tyler Tolbert: AB current=3 box=2, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1; Michael Massey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.363733768463135	5.580068111419678		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.640	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	2	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	5	4
KC	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHC	batting	39	10	0	0	0	6	5	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	CHC	pitching		7			1		2	1	11					9.0	2	0	0
current	KC	batting	33	9	0	0	0	1	2	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		5			1		5	6	8					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	CHC	batting	31	4	2	0	1	5	5	6	8	0	0
simulation	CHC	pitching		7			1		2	1	11					9.0	2	35	137
simulation	KC	batting	34	7	3	0	1	2	2	1	11	0	0
simulation	KC	pitching		5			1		5	6	8					9.0	5	38	162

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	CHC		RF	Seiya Suzuki	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	CHC		CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0	6	2	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
current	CHC		3B	Alex Bregman	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	CHC		1B	Michael Busch	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHC		DH	Pedro Ramirez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHC		C	Carson Kelly	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHC		2B	Nico Hoerner	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.200
current	CHC		LF	Ian Happ	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		SS	Dansby Swanson	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	KC		1B	Jac Caglianone	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	KC		C	Carter Jensen	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	KC		LF	Isaac Collins	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	KC		SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	KC		DH	Salvador Perez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	KC		CF	Tyler Tolbert	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	KC		3B	Nick Loftin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	KC		2B	Michael Massey	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	KC		RF	Starling Marte	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	CHC	1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	5	3	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	3	3B	Alex Bregman	4	3	2	0	1	1	2	1	1	0.667
simulation	CHC	4	1B	Michael Busch	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	5	2B	Nico Hoerner	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHC	6	LF	Ian Happ	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	7	C	Carson Kelly	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHC	8	DH	Pedro Ramirez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CHC	9	SS	Dansby Swanson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	KC	1	C	Carter Jensen	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	KC	2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	KC	3	1B	Jac Caglianone	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	KC	4	DH	Salvador Perez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	KC	5	LF	Isaac Collins	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	KC	6	3B	Nick Loftin	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	KC	7	2B	Michael Massey	4	4	2	2	0	1	1	0	2	0.500
simulation	KC	8	RF	Starling Marte	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	KC	9	CF	Tyler Tolbert	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHC	1	Kevin Gausman	Starter	5.1	6	2	2	0	6	1	0	0	3.38	4.38	1.29
current	CHC	2	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.49	1.20
current	CHC	3	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.71	1.18
current	CHC	4	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.52	1.09
current	KC	1	Daniel Lynch IV	Starter	5.2	2	2	2	3	5	0	0	0	3.18	1.96	0.93
current	KC	2	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	6.11	1.53
current	KC	3	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.67	1.37
current	KC	4	Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	18.00	4.29	1.21
current	KC	5	Nate Pearson	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.92	1.30
current	KC	6	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		5.71	1.66
simulation	CHC	1	Kevin Gausman	Starter	5.1	6	2	2	0	6	1	22	94	3.38	4.38	1.29
simulation	CHC	2	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	17	0.00	2.49	1.20
simulation	CHC	3	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	18	0.00	3.71	1.18
simulation	CHC	4	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	6	8	0.00	2.52	1.09
simulation	KC	1	Daniel Lynch IV	Starter	5.2	2	2	2	3	5	0	22	89	3.18	1.96	0.93
simulation	KC	2	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	4	15	9.00	6.11	1.53
simulation	KC	3	Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	0	6	6	18.00	4.29	1.21
simulation	KC	4	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.67	1.37
simulation	KC	5	Nate Pearson	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	16	0.00	2.92	1.30
simulation	KC	6	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19		5.71	1.66

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHC	Kevin Gausman	Starter	5.1	2	6	0	6	22	94
CHC	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	17
CHC	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	18
CHC	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	0	1	6	8
KC	Daniel Lynch IV	Starter	5.2	2	2	3	5	22	89
KC	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	15
KC	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
KC	Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	1	1	6	6
KC	Nate Pearson	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	1	0	2	16
KC	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	19

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	critical	error	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	critical	1	0	1	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	0	0	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	error	0	1	1	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	0	0	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	0	0	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260807_CIN@WAS

20260807_CIN@WAS.json • 2026-08-07

CIN 2 - WAS 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 96INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=8; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=13).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Stephenson: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Sal Stewart: HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Héctor Rodríguez: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; JJ Bleday: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: H current=1 box=0; Noelvi Marte: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Ke'Bryan Hayes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=28; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=4; R: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=2; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Dylan Crews: AB current=5 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Abimelec Ortiz: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=1, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jose F Miranda: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brady House: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Daylen Lile: 2B current=0 box=1; Harry Ford: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match WAS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match WAS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=37 matches WAS BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match CIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match CIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match CIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=33 matches CIN BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.474/0.650.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 8, WAS 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 2 - WAS 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: WAS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for WAS; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -7, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 15, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -14, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'WAS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'WAS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'WAS', 'final_score_winner': 'WAS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CIN 3 - 4 WAS', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CIN 2 - 4 WAS', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'WAS', 'model_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5929, 'winner': 'WAS', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_CIN@WAS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@WAS.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 183.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 183.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 2 - 4 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 2 - 4 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: WAS wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=WAS, simulation=WAS, published=WAS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: WAS wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: WAS wins 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-4, final 2-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: WAS wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match WAS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match WAS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=37 matches WAS BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match CIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match CIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match CIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=33 matches CIN BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.474/0.650.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 8, WAS 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 2 - WAS 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: WAS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for WAS; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -7, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-14', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 15, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -14, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'WAS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'WAS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'WAS', 'final_score_winner': 'WAS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CIN 3 - 4 WAS', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CIN 2 - 4 WAS', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'WAS', 'model_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5929, 'winner': 'WAS', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_CIN@WAS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@WAS.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 183.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 183.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 2 - 4 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 2 - 4 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: WAS wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=WAS, simulation=WAS, published=WAS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: WAS wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: WAS wins 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-4, final 2-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: WAS wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; H: current=7, sim=8; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=13).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Stephenson: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Sal Stewart: HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Héctor Rodríguez: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; JJ Bleday: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: H current=1 box=0; Noelvi Marte: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Ke'Bryan Hayes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=28; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=4; R: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=2; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Dylan Crews: AB current=5 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Abimelec Ortiz: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=1, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jose F Miranda: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brady House: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Daylen Lile: 2B current=0 box=1; Harry Ford: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.5772881507873535	5.85964298248291		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	8
WAS	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	4	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CIN	batting	34	7	0	0	0	3	4	4	10	0	0	0	0
current	CIN	pitching		5			0		4	2	9					8.0	4	0	0
current	WAS	batting	32	9	0	0	0	1	2	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	WAS	pitching		8			1		2	2	13					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	CIN	batting	35	8	0	1	1	2	2	2	13	0	0
simulation	CIN	pitching		5			0		4	2	9					8.0	4	33	142
simulation	WAS	batting	28	5	1	0	0	4	4	2	9	1	2
simulation	WAS	pitching		8			1		2	2	13					9.0	2	37	183

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	CIN		C	Tyler Stephenson	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		1B	Sal Stewart	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		CF	Héctor Rodríguez	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		SS	Elly De La Cruz	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	CIN		LF	JJ Bleday	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		DH	Eugenio Suárez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
current	CIN		RF	Noelvi Marte	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	CIN		2B	Matt McLain	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	WAS		DH	CJ Abrams	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		RF	Dylan Crews	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	WAS		1B	Abimelec Ortiz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	WAS		SS	Nasim Nuñez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	WAS		2B	Jose F Miranda	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	WAS		3B	Brady House	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		LF	Daylen Lile	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		C	Harry Ford	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	WAS		CF	Jacob Young	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	CIN	1	SS	Elly De La Cruz	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	CIN	2	1B	Sal Stewart	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	3	LF	JJ Bleday	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	4	C	Tyler Stephenson	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	5	DH	Eugenio Suárez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	6	CF	Héctor Rodríguez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	7	RF	Noelvi Marte	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	CIN	8	3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	4	4	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	CIN	9	2B	Matt McLain	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	1	DH	CJ Abrams	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	2	1B	Abimelec Ortiz	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	3	3B	Brady House	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	4	LF	Daylen Lile	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	5	RF	Dylan Crews	4	2	1	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	WAS	6	C	Harry Ford	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	7	SS	Nasim Nuñez	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	WAS	8	2B	Jose F Miranda	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	9	CF	Jacob Young	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CIN	1	Chase Petty	Starter	5.0	3	2	2	1	7	0	0	0	3.60	4.50	1.23
current	CIN	2	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.73	1.27
current	CIN	3	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.26	1.14
current	CIN	4	Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	18.00	2.25	0.94
current	WAS	1	Cade Cavalli	Starter	5.2	5	1	1	1	8	1	0	0	1.59	3.52	1.29
current	WAS	2	Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.44	1.21
current	WAS	3	Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	9.00	3.44	1.21
current	WAS	4	Yovanny Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.18	1.24
current	WAS	5	Tom Cosgrove	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.00	1.11
simulation	CIN	1	Chase Petty	Starter	5.0	3	2	2	1	7	0	19	88	3.60	4.50	1.23
simulation	CIN	2	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	15	0.00	4.26	1.14
simulation	CIN	3	Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	0	6	23	18.00	2.25	0.94
simulation	CIN	4	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	2.73	1.27
simulation	WAS	1	Cade Cavalli	Starter	5.2	5	1	1	1	8	1	23	102	1.59	3.52	1.29
simulation	WAS	2	Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	28	0.00	3.44	1.21
simulation	WAS	3	Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	0	5	21	9.00	3.44	1.21
simulation	WAS	4	Yovanny Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	17	0.00	3.18	1.24
simulation	WAS	5	Tom Cosgrove	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	15	0.00	3.00	1.11

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CIN	Chase Petty	Starter	5.0	2	3	1	7	19	88
CIN	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	4	16
CIN	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	4	15
CIN	Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	1	1	6	23
WAS	Cade Cavalli	Starter	5.2	1	5	1	8	23	102
WAS	Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	28
WAS	Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	2	5	21
WAS	Yovanny Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17
WAS	Tom Cosgrove	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	1	1	2	15

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260807_CLE@CHW

20260807_CLE@CHW.json • 2026-08-07

CLE 5 - CHW 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 95INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Randal Grichuk: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Colson Montgomery: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Braden Montgomery: RBI current=1 box=0; Edgar Quero: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Luisangel Acuña: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brenton Doyle: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=10, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=4; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=5; R: current=2, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Chase DeLauter: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Steven Kwan: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Angel Martínez: H current=1 box=0; Rhys Hoskins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Angel Genao: H current=2 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Jo Adell: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brayan Rocchio: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Hedges: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match CLE pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match CLE pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match CLE pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=40 matches CLE BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match CHW pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match CHW pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=37 matches CHW BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.517.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.517.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.483.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.450/0.622.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 7, CHW 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 5 - CHW 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; latest-series reversal condition was suppressed.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-07-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260705', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.63, 'artifact': '20260705_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260704', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260704_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260703', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260703_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260702', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260702_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260624', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.552834, 'artifact': '20260624_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 5 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 5 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.614, 'winner': 'CLE', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_CLE@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@CHW.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 183.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 183.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 5 - 4 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 5 - 4 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.517.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match CLE pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match CLE pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match CLE pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=40 matches CLE BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match CHW pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match CHW pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=37 matches CHW BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.517.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.517.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.483.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.450/0.622.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 7, CHW 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 5 - CHW 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; latest-series reversal condition was suppressed.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-07-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 5, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260705', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.63, 'artifact': '20260705_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260704', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260704_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260703', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260703_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260702', 'away': 'CHW', 'home': 'CLE', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260702_CHW@CLE.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260624', 'away': 'CLE', 'home': 'CHW', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.552834, 'artifact': '20260624_CLE@CHW.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'simulation_score_winner': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 5 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 5 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'winner': 'CLE', 'model_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.614, 'winner': 'CLE', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_CLE@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@CHW.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 183.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 183.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 5 - 4 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 5 - 4 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=CLE, simulation=CLE, published=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.517.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Randal Grichuk: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Colson Montgomery: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Braden Montgomery: RBI current=1 box=0; Edgar Quero: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Luisangel Acuña: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brenton Doyle: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=10, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=4; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=5; R: current=2, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Chase DeLauter: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Steven Kwan: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Angel Martínez: H current=1 box=0; Rhys Hoskins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Angel Genao: H current=2 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Jo Adell: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brayan Rocchio: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Hedges: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.482545852661133	3.1334550380706787		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	3		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.517	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	2	5	7
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	4	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CLE	batting	33	10	0	0	0	1	2	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		9			2		4	4	10					9.0	4	0	0
current	CHW	batting	32	9	0	0	0	5	5	2	10	0	0	0	0
current	CHW	pitching		7			1		5	3	6					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	CLE	batting	34	7	4	0	1	5	5	3	6	0	0
simulation	CLE	pitching		9			2		4	4	10					9.0	4	40	183
simulation	CHW	batting	36	9	2	0	2	4	4	4	10	0	0
simulation	CHW	pitching		7			1		5	3	6					9.0	5	37	155

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	CLE		DH	Chase DeLauter	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CLE		CF	Steven Kwan	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		LF	Angel Martínez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		1B	Rhys Hoskins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		2B	Angel Genao	0	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.500
current	CLE		RF	Jo Adell	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		C	Austin Hedges	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		3B	Petey Halpin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		DH	Munetaka Murakami	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	0.250
current	CHW		1B	Miguel Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		LF	Randal Grichuk	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		3B	Colson Montgomery	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		RF	Braden Montgomery	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		C	Edgar Quero	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		SS	Luisangel Acuña	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		CF	Brenton Doyle	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		2B	Chase Meidroth	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	CLE	1	CF	Steven Kwan	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	2	DH	Chase DeLauter	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CLE	3	RF	Jo Adell	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	CLE	4	LF	Angel Martínez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	5	1B	Rhys Hoskins	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	6	SS	Brayan Rocchio	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	7	C	Austin Hedges	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	8	2B	Angel Genao	4	4	3	2	1	1	2	0	1	0.750
simulation	CLE	9	CF	Petey Halpin	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	1	2B	Chase Meidroth	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	CHW	2	DH	Munetaka Murakami	5	5	2	1	1	1	3	0	0	0.400
simulation	CHW	3	1B	Miguel Vargas	5	3	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	0.333
simulation	CHW	4	LF	Randal Grichuk	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	3	0.200
simulation	CHW	5	3B	Colson Montgomery	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.500
simulation	CHW	6	CF	Brenton Doyle	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	CHW	7	RF	Braden Montgomery	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHW	8	C	Edgar Quero	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CHW	9	SS	Luisangel Acuña	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CLE	1	Parker Messick	Starter	6.0	4	1	1	1	8	1	0	0	1.50	2.57	1.06
current	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	3	1	0	1	0	0	27.00	2.41	1.13
current	CLE	3	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.41	0.81
current	CLE	4	Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.35	1.30
current	CHW	1	Noah Schultz	Starter	4.1	5	4	4	2	4	0	0	0	8.31	5.82	1.38
current	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.40	1.03
current	CHW	3	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.87	1.14
current	CHW	4	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.00	2.89	1.26
current	CHW	5	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	3.09	1.41
simulation	CLE	1	Parker Messick	Starter	6.0	4	1	1	1	8	1	23	104	1.50	2.57	1.06
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	3	1	0	1	7	28	27.00	2.41	1.13
simulation	CLE	3	Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	1	2	0	4	15	0.00	3.35	1.30
simulation	CLE	4	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	0	6	36	0.00	1.41	0.81
simulation	CHW	1	Noah Schultz	Starter	4.1	5	4	4	2	4	0	20	79	8.31	5.82	1.38
simulation	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	21	0.00	2.40	1.03
simulation	CHW	3	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	19	0.00	2.87	1.14
simulation	CHW	4	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	1	5	20	0.00	2.89	1.26
simulation	CHW	5	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	4	16	9.00	3.09	1.41

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CLE	Parker Messick	Starter	6.0	1	4	1	8	23	104
CLE	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	1	0	7	28
CLE	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	0	6	36
CLE	Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	1	2	4	15
CHW	Noah Schultz	Starter	4.1	4	5	2	4	20	79
CHW	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	21
CHW	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	19
CHW	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	20
CHW	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260807_COL@STL

20260807_COL@STL.json • 2026-08-07

COL 3 - STL 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 95INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Carrigg: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Tovar: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=0 box=1; Hunter Goodman: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=5, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Edouard Julien: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2; Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=7; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Masyn Winn: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; JJ Wetherholt: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jimmy Crooks: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Blaze Jordan: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4; Bryan Torres: SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match STL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match STL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=41 matches STL BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match COL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match COL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match COL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=34 matches COL BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.474/0.650.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: COL 9, STL 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: COL 3 - STL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for STL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_COL@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@STL.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 182.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 182.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 3 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 3 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=STL, simulation=STL, published=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: STL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match STL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match STL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=41 matches STL BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match COL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match COL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match COL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=34 matches COL BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.474/0.650.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: COL 9, STL 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: COL 3 - STL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for STL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_COL@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@STL.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 182.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 182.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 3 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 3 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=STL, simulation=STL, published=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: STL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Carrigg: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Tovar: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=0 box=1; Hunter Goodman: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=5, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Edouard Julien: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2; Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=7; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Masyn Winn: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; JJ Wetherholt: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jimmy Crooks: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Blaze Jordan: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4; Bryan Torres: SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.417652130126953	5.775219440460205		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	6		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.660	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	3	9
STL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	COL	batting	31	9	0	0	0	4	5	1	10	0	0	0	0
current	COL	pitching		7			1		4	3	7					8.0	4	0	0
current	STL	batting	32	9	0	0	0	2	4	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		9			0		3	5	6					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	COL	batting	36	9	4	0	0	3	3	5	6	0	0
simulation	COL	pitching		7			1		4	3	7					8.0	4	34	146
simulation	STL	batting	31	7	0	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	0
simulation	STL	pitching		9			0		3	5	6					9.0	3	41	182

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	COL		DH	Cole Carrigg	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	COL		C	Ezequiel Tovar	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	COL		1B	Hunter Goodman	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
current	COL		2B	TJ Rumfield	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		3B	Kyle Karros	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	COL		SS	Edouard Julien	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	COL		LF	Jake McCarthy	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		CF	Mickey Moniak	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		RF	Troy Johnston	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	STL		DH	Nathan Church	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	STL		C	Masyn Winn	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	STL		1B	JJ Wetherholt	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	STL		2B	Alec Burleson	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	STL		3B	Jimmy Crooks	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	STL		SS	Blaze Jordan	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	STL		LF	Jordan Walker	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	STL		CF	Bryan Torres	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	STL		RF	Iván Herrera	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	COL	1	OF	Cole Carrigg	5	5	2	2	0	0	0	0	2	0.400
simulation	COL	2	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	COL	3	2B	Edouard Julien	5	3	1	0	0	1	1	2	1	0.333
simulation	COL	4	1B	TJ Rumfield	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.200
simulation	COL	5	C	Hunter Goodman	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	COL	6	3B	Kyle Karros	4	3	2	2	0	1	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	COL	7	CF	Jake McCarthy	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	COL	8	LF	Mickey Moniak	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	COL	9	RF	Troy Johnston	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	STL	1	CF	Nathan Church	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	STL	2	SS	Masyn Winn	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	STL	3	SS	JJ Wetherholt	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	STL	4	1B	Alec Burleson	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	STL	5	C	Jimmy Crooks	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	STL	6	1B	Blaze Jordan	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	STL	7	RF	Jordan Walker	4	4	2	0	1	1	4	0	1	0.500
simulation	STL	8	OF	Bryan Torres	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	STL	9	DH	Iván Herrera	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	COL	1	Ryan Feltner	Starter	4.1	6	4	4	1	4	0	0	0	8.31	5.75	1.46
current	COL	2	Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.54	1.17
current	COL	3	Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.86	1.56
current	COL	4	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5.36	1.57
current	COL	5	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.00	6.82	1.68
current	STL	1	Kyle Leahy	Starter	5.0	8	3	3	3	5	0	0	0	5.40	3.44	1.33
current	STL	2	Caleb Ferguson	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.76	1.44
current	STL	3	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.55	1.16
current	STL	4	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.35	1.18
current	STL	5	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.43	1.46
simulation	COL	1	Ryan Feltner	Starter	4.1	6	4	4	1	4	0	20	86	8.31	5.75	1.46
simulation	COL	2	Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	10	0.00	4.86	1.56
simulation	COL	3	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	16	0.00	5.36	1.57
simulation	COL	4	Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	14	0.00	2.54	1.17
simulation	COL	5	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	1	0	1	4	20	0.00	6.82	1.68
simulation	STL	1	Kyle Leahy	Starter	5.0	8	3	3	3	5	0	26	108	5.40	3.44	1.33
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	18	0.00	3.35	1.18
simulation	STL	3	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	19	0.00	3.55	1.16
simulation	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	4.43	1.46
simulation	STL	5	Caleb Ferguson	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	5	20	0.00	3.76	1.44

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
COL	Ryan Feltner	Starter	4.1	4	6	1	4	20	86
COL	Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	14
COL	Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	10
COL	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
COL	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	1	0	4	20
STL	Kyle Leahy	Starter	5.0	3	8	3	5	26	108
STL	Caleb Ferguson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	5	20
STL	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	19
STL	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	18
STL	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260807_DET@SF

20260807_DET@SF.json • 2026-08-07

DET 5 - SF 2

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 95INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=36; H: current=10, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=6, sim=5; R: current=6, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=4; Riley Greene: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Gleyber Torres: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Dillon Dingler: AB current=6 box=4, H current=2 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Zach McKinstry: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Spencer Torkelson: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Javier Báez: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=2; R: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=6; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Willy Adames: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Rafael Devers: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Bryce Eldridge: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Osleivis Basabe: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Grant McCray: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Koss: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Jung Hoo Lee: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Drew Gilbert: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match SF pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match SF pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=39 matches SF BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match DET pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match DET pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match DET pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=39 matches DET BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.626/0.826.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 9, SF 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 5 - SF 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for DET.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_DET@SF.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@SF.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 180.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 180.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 5 - 2 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 5 - 2 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=DET, simulation=DET, published=DET.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: DET wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: DET wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match SF pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match SF pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=39 matches SF BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match DET pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match DET pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match DET pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=39 matches DET BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.626/0.826.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 9, SF 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 5 - SF 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for DET.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_DET@SF.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@SF.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 180.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 180.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 5 - 2 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 5 - 2 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=DET, simulation=DET, published=DET.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: DET wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: DET wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=36; H: current=10, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=6, sim=5; R: current=6, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=4; Riley Greene: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Gleyber Torres: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Dillon Dingler: AB current=6 box=4, H current=2 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Zach McKinstry: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Spencer Torkelson: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Javier Báez: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=2; R: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=6; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Willy Adames: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Rafael Devers: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Bryce Eldridge: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Osleivis Basabe: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Grant McCray: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Koss: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Jung Hoo Lee: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Drew Gilbert: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.6754326820373535	4.1550517082214355		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6	2	0.660	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	6	2		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6	2		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6	2		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	5	9
SF	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	DET	batting	37	10	0	0	0	6	6	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	DET	pitching		6			0		2	5	6					9.0	2	0	0
current	SF	batting	33	8	0	0	0	3	0	1	7	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		9			2		5	3	7					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	DET	batting	36	9	1	0	2	5	5	3	7	0	0
simulation	DET	pitching		6			0		2	5	6					9.0	2	39	157
simulation	SF	batting	32	6	1	0	0	2	2	5	6	1	1
simulation	SF	pitching		9			2		5	3	7					9.0	5	39	180

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	DET		3B	Kevin McGonigle	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	DET		DH	Colt Keith	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	DET		LF	Riley Greene	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		2B	Gleyber Torres	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	DET		C	Dillon Dingler	0	6	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	DET		RF	Zach McKinstry	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	DET		1B	Spencer Torkelson	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		SS	Javier Báez	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		CF	Max Clark	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	SF		SS	Willy Adames	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		1B	Rafael Devers	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		DH	Bryce Eldridge	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	SF		2B	Osleivis Basabe	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
current	SF		LF	Grant McCray	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	SF		3B	Christian Koss	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.200
current	SF		CF	Drew Gilbert	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		C	Daniel Susac	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	DET	1	3B	Kevin McGonigle	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	DET	2	2B	Gleyber Torres	5	4	1	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	DET	3	C	Dillon Dingler	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	DET	4	LF	Riley Greene	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	DET	5	DH	Colt Keith	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	DET	6	1B	Spencer Torkelson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	DET	7	CF	Max Clark	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	DET	8	SS	Javier Báez	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	DET	9	RF	Zach McKinstry	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	SF	1	DH	Bryce Eldridge	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	SF	2	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	5	5	2	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	SF	3	SS	Willy Adames	5	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.600
simulation	SF	4	1B	Rafael Devers	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SF	5	C	Daniel Susac	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SF	6	CF	Drew Gilbert	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	SF	7	2B	Osleivis Basabe	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	8	LF	Grant McCray	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	SF	9	3B	Christian Koss	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	DET	1	Keider Montero	Starter	5.1	5	2	2	4	5	0	0	0	3.38	3.17	1.00
current	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.34	1.18
current	DET	3	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.94	1.29
current	DET	4	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.66	1.44
current	SF	1	JT Brubaker	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	2	3	1	0	0	5.40	3.17	1.17
current	SF	2	Dylan Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.10	1.33
current	SF	3	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.03	1.14
current	SF	4	Sam Hentges	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.52	1.52
current	SF	5	Jason Foley	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	18.00	4.26	1.11
simulation	DET	1	Keider Montero	Starter	5.1	5	2	2	4	5	0	25	100	3.38	3.17	1.00
simulation	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	3.34	1.18
simulation	DET	3	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	2.66	1.44
simulation	DET	4	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	0	6	24	0.00	2.94	1.29
simulation	SF	1	JT Brubaker	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	2	3	1	22	98	5.40	3.17	1.17
simulation	SF	2	Dylan Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	32	0.00	3.10	1.33
simulation	SF	3	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	3.03	1.14
simulation	SF	4	Sam Hentges	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	15	0.00	2.52	1.52
simulation	SF	5	Jason Foley	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	1	5	19	18.00	4.26	1.11

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
DET	Keider Montero	Starter	5.1	2	5	4	5	25	100
DET	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	4	16
DET	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	0	6	24
DET	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17
SF	JT Brubaker	Starter	5.0	3	5	2	3	22	98
SF	Dylan Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	32
SF	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
SF	Sam Hentges	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	15
SF	Jason Foley	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	0	1	5	19

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260807_HOU@SD

20260807_HOU@SD.json • 2026-08-07

HOU 4 - SD 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 96INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=38, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=8; RBI: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jose Altuve: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Daulton Varsho: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jeremy Peña: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Isaac Paredes: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Meyers: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Yainer Diaz: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cam Smith: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Cronenworth: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jackson Merrill: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Gavin Sheets: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Sung-Mun Song: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Rengifo: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Campusano: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match SD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match SD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match SD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=40 matches SD BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match HOU pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match HOU pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match HOU pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=36 matches HOU BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.443.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.557.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.557.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.474/0.650.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 8, SD 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 4 - SD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for SD.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5573884819352906, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_HOU@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@SD.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 148.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 163.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 148.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 163.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 4 - 5 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 4 - 5 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SD, simulation=SD, published=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.557.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SD wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match SD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match SD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match SD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=40 matches SD BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match HOU pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match HOU pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match HOU pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=36 matches HOU BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.443.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.557.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.557.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.474/0.650.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 8, SD 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 4 - SD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for SD.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5573884819352906, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_HOU@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@SD.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 148.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 163.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 148.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 163.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 4 - 5 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 4 - 5 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=SD, simulation=SD, published=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.557.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SD wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=38, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=8; RBI: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jose Altuve: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Daulton Varsho: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jeremy Peña: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Isaac Paredes: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Meyers: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Yainer Diaz: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cam Smith: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Cronenworth: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jackson Merrill: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Gavin Sheets: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Sung-Mun Song: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Rengifo: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Campusano: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.972665548324585	5.084314823150635		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.557	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	8
SD	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	HOU	batting	38	9	0	0	0	3	4	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	HOU	pitching		7			1		5	5	6					8.0	5	0	0
current	SD	batting	33	9	0	0	0	2	3	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	SD	pitching		8			0		4	5	5					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	HOU	batting	34	8	0	0	0	4	4	5	5	1	0
simulation	HOU	pitching		7			1		5	5	6					8.0	5	36	148
simulation	SD	batting	31	7	3	0	1	5	5	5	6	0	0
simulation	SD	pitching		8			0		4	5	5					9.0	4	40	163

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	HOU		2B	Jose Altuve	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	HOU		DH	Yordan Alvarez	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	HOU		LF	Daulton Varsho	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		SS	Jeremy Peña	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	HOU		3B	Isaac Paredes	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		CF	Jake Meyers	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	HOU		C	Yainer Diaz	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.200
current	HOU		RF	Cam Smith	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		1B	Christian Walker	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	SD		1B	Jake Cronenworth	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SD		CF	Jackson Merrill	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	SD		RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	SD		3B	Manny Machado	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	SD		DH	Gavin Sheets	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SD		2B	Sung-Mun Song	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SD		LF	Luis Rengifo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SD		C	Luis Campusano	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SD		SS	Xander Bogaerts	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	HOU	1	SS	Jeremy Peña	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.400
simulation	HOU	2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	HOU	3	3B	Isaac Paredes	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	HOU	4	2B	Jose Altuve	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	5	1B	Christian Walker	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	6	LF	Daulton Varsho	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	HOU	7	C	Yainer Diaz	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	HOU	8	RF	Cam Smith	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	HOU	9	CF	Jake Meyers	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SD	1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	SD	2	1B	Jake Cronenworth	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	SD	3	3B	Manny Machado	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	SD	4	LF	Luis Rengifo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SD	5	CF	Jackson Merrill	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	SD	6	C	Luis Campusano	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	SD	7	DH	Gavin Sheets	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	0.000
simulation	SD	8	SS	Xander Bogaerts	4	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	SD	9	2B	Sung-Mun Song	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	HOU	1	Ronel Blanco	Starter	4.2	5	4	4	5	3	0	0	0	7.71	7.36	1.30
current	HOU	2	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.22	1.16
current	HOU	3	Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.75	0.71
current	HOU	4	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.24	0.85
current	HOU	6	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	27.00	4.43	1.38
current	SD	1	Robbie Ray	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	4	5	0	0	0	4.76	3.08	1.29
current	SD	2	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.95	1.07
current	SD	3	Jeremiah Estrada	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	3.65	1.14
current	SD	4	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.74	0.81
simulation	HOU	1	Ronel Blanco	Starter	4.2	5	4	4	5	3	0	24	94	7.71	7.36	1.30
simulation	HOU	2	Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	0.75	0.71
simulation	HOU	3	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	2.24	0.85
simulation	HOU	4	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	1	2	17	27.00	4.43	1.38
simulation	HOU	5	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	7	0.00	4.22	1.16
simulation	SD	1	Robbie Ray	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	4	5	0	27	110	4.76	3.08	1.29
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	0.74	0.81
simulation	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	20	0.00	2.95	1.07
simulation	SD	4	Jeremiah Estrada	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	4	16	9.00	3.65	1.14

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
HOU	Ronel Blanco	Starter	4.2	4	5	5	3	24	94
HOU	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	7
HOU	Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
HOU	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	17
HOU	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	1	0	1	2	17
SD	Robbie Ray	Starter	5.2	3	6	4	5	27	110
SD	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	0	5	20
SD	Jeremiah Estrada	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16
SD	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260807_LAA@MIA

20260807_LAA@MIA.json • 2026-08-07

LAA 1 - MIA 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 96INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Vaughn Grissom: R current=0 box=1; Moisés Ballesteros: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Mike Trout: AB current=5 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Oswald Peraza: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Nolan Schanuel: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Zach Neto: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=8; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Griffin Conine: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Xavier Edwards: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Kyle Stowers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Otto Lopez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Owen Caissie: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Esteury Ruiz: R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Leo Jiménez: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Joe Mack: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match MIA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match MIA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match MIA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=36 matches MIA BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match LAA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match LAA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=36 matches LAA BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.409/0.625.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAA 4, MIA 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAA 1 - MIA 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIA.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_LAA@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAA@MIA.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 1 - 5 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAA 1 - 5 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 5-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIA, simulation=MIA, published=MIA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIA wins 5-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 1-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 1-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 1-5, final 1-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIA wins 5-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match MIA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match MIA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match MIA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=36 matches MIA BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match LAA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match LAA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=36 matches LAA BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.409/0.625.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAA 4, MIA 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAA 1 - MIA 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIA.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_LAA@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAA@MIA.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 1 - 5 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAA 1 - 5 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 5-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIA, simulation=MIA, published=MIA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIA wins 5-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 1-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 1-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 1-5, final 1-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIA wins 5-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Vaughn Grissom: R current=0 box=1; Moisés Ballesteros: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Mike Trout: AB current=5 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Oswald Peraza: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Nolan Schanuel: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Zach Neto: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=8; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Griffin Conine: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Xavier Edwards: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Kyle Stowers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Otto Lopez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Owen Caissie: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Esteury Ruiz: R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Leo Jiménez: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Joe Mack: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.6634225845336914	4.602001667022705		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	2	4	0.660	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	2	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	1	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4
MIA	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	5	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	LAA	batting	33	8	0	0	0	2	2	1	10	0	0	0	0
current	LAA	pitching		8			1		5	3	8					8.0	5	0	0
current	MIA	batting	31	9	0	0	0	2	3	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIA	pitching		4			0		1	5	11					9.0	1	0	0
simulation	LAA	batting	31	4	1	0	0	1	1	5	11	0	0
simulation	LAA	pitching		8			1		5	3	8					8.0	5	36	145
simulation	MIA	batting	32	8	0	0	1	5	5	3	8	0	1
simulation	MIA	pitching		4			0		1	5	11					9.0	1	36	164

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	LAA		LF	Wade Meckler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		3B	Vaughn Grissom	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		DH	Moisés Ballesteros	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		CF	Mike Trout	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.200
current	LAA		RF	Josh Lowe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		2B	Oswald Peraza	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		1B	Nolan Schanuel	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		SS	Zach Neto	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.200
current	LAA		C	Tyler Heineman	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	MIA		DH	Griffin Conine	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		2B	Xavier Edwards	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		1B	Kyle Stowers	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		SS	Otto Lopez	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	MIA		RF	Owen Caissie	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		LF	Esteury Ruiz	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		3B	Leo Jiménez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		C	Joe Mack	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		CF	Jakob Marsee	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	LAA	1	LF	Wade Meckler	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	2	CF	Mike Trout	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	LAA	3	1B	Nolan Schanuel	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	4	SS	Zach Neto	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	5	3B	Vaughn Grissom	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	6	DH	Moisés Ballesteros	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	7	2B	Oswald Peraza	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	8	RF	Josh Lowe	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	9	C	Tyler Heineman	4	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	MIA	1	1B	Kyle Stowers	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	2	SS	Otto Lopez	4	4	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	MIA	3	DH	Griffin Conine	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	MIA	4	2B	Xavier Edwards	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	5	RF	Owen Caissie	4	4	1	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	6	3B	Leo Jiménez	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	7	CF	Jakob Marsee	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	8	C	Joe Mack	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	9	LF	Esteury Ruiz	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	LAA	1	George Klassen	Starter	3.0	7	5	5	2	5	1	0	0	15.00	11.57	3.64
current	LAA	2	Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.16	0.84
current	LAA	3	José Fermin	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.13	1.23
current	LAA	6	Ben Joyce	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1.00
current	MIA	1	Tyler Phillips	Starter	5.0	4	1	1	3	5	0	0	0	1.80	3.53	1.35
current	MIA	2	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.53	1.49
current	MIA	3	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.13	1.07
current	MIA	4	Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	6.37	1.36
current	MIA	5	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.85	1.62
simulation	LAA	1	George Klassen	Starter	3.0	7	5	5	2	5	1	19	75	15.00	11.57	3.64
simulation	LAA	2	Ben Joyce	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	6	24	0.00	0.00	1.00
simulation	LAA	3	Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6	25	0.00	2.16	0.84
simulation	LAA	4	José Fermin	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	21	0.00	3.13	1.23
simulation	MIA	1	Tyler Phillips	Starter	5.0	4	1	1	3	5	0	22	90	1.80	3.53	1.35
simulation	MIA	2	Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	6.37	1.36
simulation	MIA	3	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	0	5	21	0.00	4.53	1.49
simulation	MIA	4	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	16	0.00	3.13	1.07
simulation	MIA	5	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	22	0.00	4.85	1.62

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
LAA	George Klassen	Starter	3.0	5	7	2	5	19	75
LAA	Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	1	6	25
LAA	José Fermin	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	5	21
LAA	Ben Joyce	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	1	6	24
MIA	Tyler Phillips	Starter	5.0	1	4	3	5	22	90
MIA	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	2	1	5	21
MIA	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	16
MIA	Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	15
MIA	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	22

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260807_LAD@ARI

20260807_LAD@ARI.json • 2026-08-07

LAD 5 - ARI 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 95INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Corbin Carroll: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Gabriel Moreno: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ketel Marte: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Lars Nootbaar: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Geraldo Perdomo: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Tim Tawa: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Ryan Waldschmidt: AB current=3 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Max Kepler: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Andy Pages: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Tommy Edman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Hunter Feduccia: AB current=3 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match LAD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=35 matches LAD BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=36 matches ARI BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.431/0.600.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 7, ARI 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 5 - ARI 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for LAD.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': -15, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260712', 'away': 'ARI', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260712_ARI@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260711', 'away': 'ARI', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260711_ARI@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260710', 'away': 'ARI', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260710_ARI@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_LAD@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@ARI.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 5 - 4 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 5 - 4 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match LAD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=35 matches LAD BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match ARI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=36 matches ARI BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.431/0.600.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 7, ARI 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 5 - ARI 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for LAD.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': -15, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260712', 'away': 'ARI', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 2, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.51, 'artifact': '20260712_ARI@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260711', 'away': 'ARI', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 7, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260711_ARI@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260710', 'away': 'ARI', 'home': 'LAD', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.66, 'artifact': '20260710_ARI@LAD.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_LAD@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@ARI.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 5 - 4 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 5 - 4 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=LAD, simulation=LAD, published=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Corbin Carroll: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Gabriel Moreno: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ketel Marte: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Lars Nootbaar: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Geraldo Perdomo: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Tim Tawa: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Ryan Waldschmidt: AB current=3 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Max Kepler: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Freddie Freeman: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Andy Pages: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Tommy Edman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Hunter Feduccia: AB current=3 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.231457233428955	4.263444900512695		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.640	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	7
ARI	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	4	4

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	LAD	batting	37	9	0	0	0	4	6	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		4			1		4	3	11					9.0	4	0	0
current	ARI	batting	34	9	0	0	0	4	4	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	ARI	pitching		7			2		5	2	6					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	LAD	batting	34	7	2	0	2	5	5	2	6	0	0
simulation	LAD	pitching		4			1		4	3	11					9.0	4	35	151
simulation	ARI	batting	31	4	2	0	1	4	4	3	11	0	1
simulation	ARI	pitching		7			2		5	2	6					9.0	5	36	137

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	LAD		DH	Shohei Ohtani	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		3B	Max Muncy	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		SS	Mookie Betts	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	LAD		CF	Andy Pages	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		2B	Tommy Edman	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		C	Hunter Feduccia	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		RF	Corbin Carroll	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	ARI		C	Gabriel Moreno	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		2B	Ketel Marte	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	ARI		DH	Lars Nootbaar	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ARI		SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		1B	Tim Tawa	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	ARI		CF	Ryan Waldschmidt	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ARI		LF	Max Kepler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ARI		3B	Nolan Arenado	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	2	CF	Andy Pages	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	3	1B	Freddie Freeman	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	4	3B	Max Muncy	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	5	SS	Mookie Betts	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	LAD	6	RF	Kyle Tucker	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	7	LF	Teoscar Hernández	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	8	2B	Tommy Edman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	9	C	Hunter Feduccia	4	2	1	1	0	1	0	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	ARI	1	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	2	RF	Corbin Carroll	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	3	C	Gabriel Moreno	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	4	2B	Ketel Marte	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	5	DH	Lars Nootbaar	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	6	3B	Nolan Arenado	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	7	LF	Max Kepler	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	8	1B	Tim Tawa	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	ARI	9	CF	Ryan Waldschmidt	3	2	1	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	LAD	1	Roki Sasaki	Starter	5.1	4	3	3	3	7	1	0	0	5.06	4.64	1.30
current	LAD	2	Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	6.75	6.23	1.85
current	LAD	3	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.38	0.88
current	LAD	5	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.82	1.29
current	ARI	1	Merrill Kelly	Starter	4.2	6	4	4	1	4	1	0	0	7.71	5.04	1.49
current	ARI	2	Brandyn Garcia	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.74	0.68
current	ARI	3	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.80	1.11
current	ARI	4	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	6.75	3.04	1.12
simulation	LAD	1	Roki Sasaki	Starter	5.1	4	3	3	3	7	1	23	100	5.06	4.64	1.30
simulation	LAD	2	Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	0	1	0	4	19	6.75	6.23	1.85
simulation	LAD	3	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	15	0.00	2.38	0.88
simulation	LAD	4	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	4.82	1.29
simulation	ARI	1	Merrill Kelly	Starter	4.2	6	4	4	1	4	1	21	90	7.71	5.04	1.49
simulation	ARI	2	Brandyn Garcia	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7	11	0.00	1.74	0.68
simulation	ARI	3	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	1	5	20	6.75	3.04	1.12
simulation	ARI	4	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	16	0.00	2.80	1.11

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
LAD	Roki Sasaki	Starter	5.1	3	4	3	7	23	100
LAD	Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	4	19
LAD	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	4	15
LAD	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
ARI	Merrill Kelly	Starter	4.2	4	6	1	4	21	90
ARI	Brandyn Garcia	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	1	0	7	11
ARI	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	16
ARI	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	0	1	5	20

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260807_MIN@MIL

20260807_MIN@MIL.json • 2026-08-07

MIN 2 - MIL 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 96INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=0, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brice Turang: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; William Contreras: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Jake Bauers: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Garrett Mitchell: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Christian Yelich: AB current=5 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; David Hamilton: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Austin Martin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Royce Lewis: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: R current=1 box=0; Luke Keaschall: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Victor Caratini: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Brooks Lee: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Kreidler: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan Jeffers: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match MIN pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match MIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match MIN pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=37 matches MIN BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match MIL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match MIL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match MIL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=36 matches MIL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.450/0.622.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 7, MIL 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 2 - MIL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.6, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-05-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-05-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 3 - 4 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 2 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.7299, 'winner': 'MIL', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_MIN@MIL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@MIL.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 2 - 5 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 2 - 5 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIL wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-5, final 2-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match MIN pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match MIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match MIN pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=37 matches MIN BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match MIL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match MIL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match MIL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=36 matches MIL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.450/0.622.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 7, MIL 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 2 - MIL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.6, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-05-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-05-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'simulation_score_winner': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIN 3 - 4 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 2 - 5 MIL', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'winner': 'MIL', 'model_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.7299, 'winner': 'MIL', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_MIN@MIL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@MIL.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 2 - 5 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 2 - 5 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=MIL, simulation=MIL, published=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIL wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-5, final 2-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=0, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=11; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brice Turang: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; William Contreras: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Jake Bauers: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Garrett Mitchell: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Christian Yelich: AB current=5 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; David Hamilton: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Austin Martin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Royce Lewis: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kody Clemens: R current=1 box=0; Luke Keaschall: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Victor Caratini: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Brooks Lee: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Kreidler: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan Jeffers: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.716611862182617	5.414928913116455		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.600	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	7
MIL	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIN	batting	32	9	0	0	2	2	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIN	pitching		6				5	6	11					8.0	5	0	0
current	MIL	batting	33	9	0	0	5	5	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIL	pitching		7				2	2	8					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	MIN	batting	34	7	0	0	2	2	2	8	0	0
simulation	MIN	pitching		6				5	6	11					8.0	5	37	176
simulation	MIL	batting	30	6	1	0	5	5	6	11	0	1
simulation	MIL	pitching		7				2	2	8					9.0	2	36	144

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	MIN		LF	Austin Martin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		2B	Royce Lewis	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		RF	Kody Clemens	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		CF	Luke Keaschall	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		1B	Victor Caratini	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		DH	Brooks Lee	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		3B	Ryan Kreidler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		C	Ryan Jeffers	0	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		SS	Josh Bell	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		2B	Brice Turang	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		C	William Contreras	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		LF	Jackson Chourio	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		RF	Luis Lara	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		1B	Jake Bauers	0	3	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		CF	Garrett Mitchell	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		DH	Christian Yelich	0	5	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	MIL		3B	David Hamilton	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		SS	Cooper Pratt	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	1	LF	Austin Martin	4	4	2	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	MIN	2	C	Ryan Jeffers	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	3	2B	Royce Lewis	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	4	DH	Josh Bell	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	5	RF	Kody Clemens	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	6	CF	Luke Keaschall	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	7	1B	Victor Caratini	4	3	2	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	MIN	8	3B	Ryan Kreidler	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	9	3B	Brooks Lee	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	1	2B	Brice Turang	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	2	LF	Jackson Chourio	4	4	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	MIL	3	1B	Jake Bauers	4	4	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	4	C	William Contreras	4	3	2	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	MIL	5	CF	Garrett Mitchell	4	4	1	1	1	2	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	6	DH	Christian Yelich	4	2	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	7	RF	Luis Lara	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIL	8	SS	Cooper Pratt	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	9	3B	David Hamilton	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIN	1	Zebby Matthews	Starter	5.0	6	5	5	4	4	0	0	9.00	5.22	1.31
current	MIN	2	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0.00	3.19	1.23
current	MIN	3	Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.00	3.35	1.33
current	MIN	4	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.00	2.49	1.03
current	MIN	5	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	3.86	1.35
current	MIL	1	Shane Drohan	Starter	5.2	5	2	2	2	6	0	0	3.18	3.48	1.17
current	MIL	2	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.68	1.43
current	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.14	1.01
current	MIL	4	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	1.87	0.85
current	MIL	5	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	3.52	1.29
simulation	MIN	1	Zebby Matthews	Starter	5.0	6	5	5	4	4	25	105	9.00	5.22	1.31
simulation	MIN	2	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	3	18	0.00	3.86	1.35
simulation	MIN	3	Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	3	19	0.00	3.35	1.33
simulation	MIN	4	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	4	19	0.00	3.19	1.23
simulation	MIN	5	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	2	15	0.00	2.49	1.03
simulation	MIL	1	Shane Drohan	Starter	5.2	5	2	2	2	6	24	94	3.18	3.48	1.17
simulation	MIL	2	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	4	16	0.00	1.87	0.85
simulation	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	15	0.00	2.14	1.01
simulation	MIL	4	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	0.00	3.68	1.43
simulation	MIL	5	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	2	16	0.00	3.52	1.29

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIN	Zebby Matthews	Starter	5.0	5	6	4	4	25	105
MIN	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	19
MIN	Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	19
MIN	A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	2	2	15
MIN	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	1	1	3	18
MIL	Shane Drohan	Starter	5.2	2	5	2	6	24	94
MIL	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	3
MIL	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	15
MIL	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
MIL	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	1	0	1	2	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260807_NYM@PIT

20260807_NYM@PIT.json • 2026-08-07

NYM 3 - PIT 2

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 95INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; HR: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: A.J. Ewing: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: R current=1 box=0; Marcus Semien: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brett Baty: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Bo Bichette: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jared Young: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Francisco Lindor: AB current=6 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jorge Polanco: H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=3, sim=2; BB: current=4, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Esmerlyn Valdez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Spencer Horwitz: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Lowe: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ronny Simon: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jake Mangum: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Rafael Flores Jr.: H current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match PIT pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match PIT pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match PIT pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=37 matches PIT BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match NYM pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match NYM pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=35 matches NYM BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.528.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.528.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.472.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 5.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.626/0.826.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 7, PIT 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 3 - PIT 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYM; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; latest-series reversal condition was suppressed.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'opponent_team': 'PIT', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-03-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-03-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-03-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'NYM'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYM', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'PIT', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'output_opponent_team': 'PIT', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYM', 'final_score_winner': 'NYM', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'NYM 3 - 2 PIT', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'NYM 3 - 2 PIT', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.6859, 'winner': 'NYM', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_NYM@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@PIT.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 3 - 2 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 3 - 2 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 3-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYM, simulation=NYM, published=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.528.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYM wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-2, final 3-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 3-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match PIT pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match PIT pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match PIT pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=37 matches PIT BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match NYM pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match NYM pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=35 matches NYM BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.528.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.528.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.472.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 5.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.626/0.826.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 7, PIT 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 3 - PIT 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYM; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; latest-series reversal condition was suppressed.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'opponent_team': 'PIT', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-03-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-03-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-03-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'NYM'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYM', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'PIT', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'output_opponent_team': 'PIT', 'simulation_score_winner': 'NYM', 'final_score_winner': 'NYM', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'NYM 3 - 2 PIT', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'NYM 3 - 2 PIT', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 2, 'winner': 'NYM', 'model_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 2}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 2}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.6859, 'winner': 'NYM', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_NYM@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@PIT.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 3 - 2 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 3 - 2 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 3-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=NYM, simulation=NYM, published=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.528.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYM wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-2, final 3-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 3-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; HR: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: A.J. Ewing: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: R current=1 box=0; Marcus Semien: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brett Baty: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Bo Bichette: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jared Young: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Francisco Lindor: AB current=6 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jorge Polanco: H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=3, sim=2; BB: current=4, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Esmerlyn Valdez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Spencer Horwitz: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Lowe: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ronny Simon: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jake Mangum: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Rafael Flores Jr.: H current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.15411376953125	4.706657409667969		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	2	0.528	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	2		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	2		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	2		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	7
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	NYM	batting	36	9	0	0	0	3	3	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	NYM	pitching		8			1		2	0	3					9.0	2	0	0
current	PIT	batting	32	8	0	0	0	2	3	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	PIT	pitching		7			2		3	3	8					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	NYM	batting	34	7	0	0	2	3	3	3	8	0	0
simulation	NYM	pitching		8			1		2	0	3					9.0	2	35	139
simulation	PIT	batting	35	8	2	0	1	2	2	0	3	0	0
simulation	PIT	pitching		7			2		3	3	8					9.0	3	37	156

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	NYM		CF	A.J. Ewing	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYM		LF	Carson Benge	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYM		2B	Marcus Semien	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYM		RF	Brett Baty	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYM		3B	Bo Bichette	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.200
current	NYM		1B	Jared Young	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYM		SS	Francisco Lindor	0	6	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.167
current	NYM		DH	Jorge Polanco	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYM		C	Luis Torrens	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	PIT		RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
current	PIT		1B	Spencer Horwitz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	PIT		2B	Brandon Lowe	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	PIT		DH	Ronny Simon	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	PIT		LF	Bryan Reynolds	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	PIT		CF	Jake Mangum	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		3B	Nick Gonzales	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		C	Rafael Flores Jr.	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	PIT		SS	Jared Triolo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	NYM	1	CF	A.J. Ewing	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	2	SS	Francisco Lindor	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	NYM	3	3B	Bo Bichette	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	NYM	4	LF	Carson Benge	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	NYM	5	1B	Jared Young	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	NYM	6	2B	Marcus Semien	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	7	RF	Brett Baty	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	NYM	8	DH	Jorge Polanco	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	NYM	9	C	Luis Torrens	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	PIT	1	CF	Jake Mangum	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	2	2B	Brandon Lowe	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	3	LF	Bryan Reynolds	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	PIT	4	RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	PIT	5	1B	Spencer Horwitz	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	PIT	6	3B	Nick Gonzales	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	7	DH	Ronny Simon	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	PIT	8	SS	Jared Triolo	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	9	C	Rafael Flores Jr.	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	NYM	1	Zach Thornton	Starter	6.1	3	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	2.88	1.05
current	NYM	2	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	3.82	1.49
current	NYM	3	Kodai Senga	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	8.29	1.71
current	NYM	4	Daniel Duarte	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.26	0.77
current	PIT	1	Carmen Mlodzinski	Starter	5.0	5	2	2	3	5	1	0	0	3.60	3.15	1.31
current	PIT	2	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	3.14	1.03
current	PIT	3	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.84	0.82
current	PIT	4	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.33	1.15
current	PIT	5	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.95	1.33
simulation	NYM	1	Zach Thornton	Starter	6.1	3	0	0	0	3	0	22	89	0.00	2.88	1.05
simulation	NYM	2	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	1	6	22	9.00	3.82	1.49
simulation	NYM	3	Kodai Senga	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	4	6	9.00	8.29	1.71
simulation	NYM	4	Daniel Duarte	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	22	0.00	1.26	0.77
simulation	PIT	1	Carmen Mlodzinski	Starter	5.0	5	2	2	3	5	1	23	90	3.60	3.15	1.31
simulation	PIT	2	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	14	0.00	1.84	0.82
simulation	PIT	3	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	17	0.00	3.33	1.15
simulation	PIT	4	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	1	5	20	9.00	3.14	1.03
simulation	PIT	5	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	2.95	1.33

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
NYM	Zach Thornton	Starter	6.1	0	3	0	3	22	89
NYM	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	3	0	0	6	22
NYM	Kodai Senga	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	6
NYM	Daniel Duarte	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	0	0	3	22
PIT	Carmen Mlodzinski	Starter	5.0	2	5	3	5	23	90
PIT	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	0	5	20
PIT	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	14
PIT	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17
PIT	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	15

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260807_OAK@BOS

20260807_OAK@BOS.json • 2026-08-07

OAK 3 - BOS 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 96INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=35; H: current=10, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nick Sogard: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Wilyer Abreu: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ceddanne Rafaela: AB current=7 box=4; Caleb Durbin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Masataka Yoshida: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Jarren Duran: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Andruw Monasterio: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Jake Rogers: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=0, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Tommy White: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brian Serven: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Tyler Soderstrom: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jonah Heim: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jonathan Ornelas: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jacob Wilson: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match OAK pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=37 matches OAK BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match BOS pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match BOS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=33 matches BOS BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.409/0.625.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 4, BOS 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 3 - BOS 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'OAK'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260730', 'away': 'BOS', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260730_BOS@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260728', 'away': 'BOS', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260728_BOS@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BOS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'BOS', 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 2 - 6 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 3 - 6 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 2.2826, 'winner': 'BOS', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_OAK@BOS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@BOS.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 3 - 6 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 3 - 6 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=BOS, simulation=BOS, published=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 1/10 (0.100).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-6, final 3-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 9/10 = 0.900.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 1/10 = 0.100.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match OAK pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=37 matches OAK BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match BOS pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match BOS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=33 matches BOS BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.409/0.625.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 4, BOS 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 3 - BOS 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'OAK'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 2, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260730', 'away': 'BOS', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.53, 'artifact': '20260730_BOS@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260728', 'away': 'BOS', 'home': 'OAK', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6599999999999999, 'artifact': '20260728_BOS@OAK.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BOS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'simulation_score_winner': 'BOS', 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 2 - 6 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 3 - 6 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'BOS', 'model_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 4, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 2.2826, 'winner': 'BOS', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_OAK@BOS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@BOS.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 3 - 6 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 3 - 6 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=BOS, simulation=BOS, published=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 1/10 (0.100).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-6, final 3-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 9/10 = 0.900.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 1/10 = 0.100.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=35; H: current=10, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nick Sogard: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Wilyer Abreu: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ceddanne Rafaela: AB current=7 box=4; Caleb Durbin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Masataka Yoshida: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Jarren Duran: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Andruw Monasterio: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Jake Rogers: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=4; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=0, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Tommy White: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brian Serven: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Tyler Soderstrom: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jonah Heim: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jonathan Ornelas: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jacob Wilson: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.266786575317383	5.25560998916626		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	2	6	0.560	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	2	6		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	3	4
BOS	0	3	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	6	11

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	OAK	batting	32	8	0	0	0	1	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		11			1		6	1	7					8.0	6	0	0
current	BOS	batting	37	10	0	0	0	5	5	1	7	0	0	0	0
current	BOS	pitching		4			3		3	1	9					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	OAK	batting	31	4	0	0	3	3	3	1	9	0	1
simulation	OAK	pitching		11			1		6	1	7					8.0	6	37	155
simulation	BOS	batting	35	11	3	1	1	6	6	1	7	0	1
simulation	BOS	pitching		4			3		3	1	9					9.0	3	33	140

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	OAK		CF	Henry Bolte	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		1B	Tommy White	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		DH	Brian Serven	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
current	OAK		LF	Tyler Soderstrom	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		C	Jonah Heim	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		2B	Jonathan Ornelas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		SS	Jacob Wilson	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	OAK		RF	Lawrence Butler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		3B	Max Muncy	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	BOS		1B	Nick Sogard	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		RF	Wilyer Abreu	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	BOS		CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	0	7	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.286
current	BOS		3B	Caleb Durbin	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	BOS		DH	Masataka Yoshida	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	BOS		LF	Jarren Duran	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		SS	Andruw Monasterio	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		C	Jake Rogers	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		2B	Anthony Seigler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	OAK	1	CF	Henry Bolte	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	2	SS	Jacob Wilson	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	3	C	Jonah Heim	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	OAK	4	LF	Tyler Soderstrom	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	5	1B	Tommy White	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	6	DH	Brian Serven	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	OAK	7	RF	Lawrence Butler	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	8	3B	Max Muncy	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	9	2B	Jonathan Ornelas	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	1	1B	Nick Sogard	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	BOS	2	CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	BOS	3	RF	Wilyer Abreu	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	4	3B	Caleb Durbin	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	BOS	5	DH	Masataka Yoshida	4	4	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	BOS	6	SS	Andruw Monasterio	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	BOS	7	LF	Jarren Duran	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	8	2B	Anthony Seigler	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	9	C	Jake Rogers	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	OAK	1	Jack Perkins	Starter	4.1	7	4	4	0	5	1	0	0	8.31	6.72	1.40
current	OAK	2	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.55	1.40
current	OAK	3	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	18.00	3.62	1.53
current	OAK	4	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.58	1.25
current	BOS	1	Payton Tolle	Starter	5.1	3	2	2	1	5	2	0	0	3.38	3.30	1.15
current	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.16	1.09
current	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	1.88	0.86
current	BOS	5	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.55	1.35
simulation	OAK	1	Jack Perkins	Starter	4.1	7	4	4	0	5	1	21	91	8.31	6.72	1.40
simulation	OAK	2	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	0	7	26	18.00	3.62	1.53
simulation	OAK	3	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	4.58	1.25
simulation	OAK	4	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	5	21	0.00	3.55	1.40
simulation	BOS	1	Payton Tolle	Starter	5.1	3	2	2	1	5	2	21	90	3.38	3.30	1.15
simulation	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	5	21	0.00	1.16	1.09
simulation	BOS	3	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	4	16	9.00	1.88	0.86
simulation	BOS	4	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	4.55	1.35

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
OAK	Jack Perkins	Starter	4.1	4	7	0	5	21	91
OAK	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	1	5	21
OAK	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	3	1	0	7	26
OAK	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
BOS	Payton Tolle	Starter	5.1	2	3	1	5	21	90
BOS	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	2	5	21
BOS	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	16
BOS	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260807_TB@SEA

20260807_TB@SEA.json • 2026-08-07

TB 4 - SEA 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 95INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Taylor Ward: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Cole Young: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Dominic Canzone: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Randy Arozarena: RBI current=0 box=1; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brendan Donovan: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Josh Naylor: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=4; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Yandy Díaz: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jonathan Aranda: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: SO current=0 box=1; Taylor Walls: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match TB pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match TB pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match TB pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=38 matches TB BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match SEA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match SEA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match SEA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=35 matches SEA BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.626/0.826.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 6, SEA 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 4 - SEA 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'SEA', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-07-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-07-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'TB'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260712', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260712_SEA@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260711', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.568835, 'artifact': '20260711_SEA@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260710', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260710_SEA@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TB', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 3 SEA', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 3 SEA', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6509, 'winner': 'TB', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_TB@SEA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@SEA.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 134.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 134.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 4 - 3 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 4 - 3 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TB wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match TB pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match TB pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match TB pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=38 matches TB BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match SEA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match SEA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match SEA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=35 matches SEA BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.626/0.826.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 6, SEA 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 4 - SEA 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest-series reversal condition was suppressed'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'SEA', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-07-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-07-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'TB'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'reason': 'verified_prior_matchup_predictions_available', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 3, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '20260712', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 6, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.6, 'artifact': '20260712_SEA@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260711', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.568835, 'artifact': '20260711_SEA@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}, {'date': '20260710', 'away': 'SEA', 'home': 'TB', 'game_number': 1, 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 5, 'raw_pick_probability': 0.64, 'artifact': '20260710_SEA@TB.json', 'verification': 'pregame_official_final'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'simulation_score_winner': 'TB', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': True, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 3 SEA', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TB 4 - 3 SEA', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'winner': 'TB', 'model_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner': 'TB', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6509, 'winner': 'TB', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_TB@SEA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@SEA.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 134.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 134.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 4 - 3 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 4 - 3 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=TB, simulation=TB, published=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TB wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Taylor Ward: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Cole Young: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Dominic Canzone: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Randy Arozarena: RBI current=0 box=1; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brendan Donovan: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Josh Naylor: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=4; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Yandy Díaz: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jonathan Aranda: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: SO current=0 box=1; Taylor Walls: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.8143768310546875	3.7750723361968994		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	2	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	4	6
SEA	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	3	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TB	batting	33	9	0	0	0	4	4	1	7	0	0	0	0
current	TB	pitching		7			1		3	4	5					9.0	3	0	0
current	SEA	batting	35	9	0	0	0	2	1	1	10	0	0	0	0
current	SEA	pitching		6			1		4	1	4					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	TB	batting	32	6	1	0	1	4	4	1	4	1	1
simulation	TB	pitching		7			1		3	4	5					9.0	3	38	165
simulation	SEA	batting	34	7	2	0	1	3	3	4	5	0	0
simulation	SEA	pitching		6			1		4	1	4					9.0	4	35	134

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TB		3B	Junior Caminero	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	TB		C	Liam Hicks	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	TB		DH	Yandy Díaz	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	TB		CF	Jonny DeLuca	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		1B	Jonathan Aranda	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		LF	Chandler Simpson	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TB		SS	Taylor Walls	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		2B	Richie Palacios	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SEA		RF	Taylor Ward	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		2B	Cole Young	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		DH	Dominic Canzone	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		LF	Randy Arozarena	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		CF	Julio Rodríguez	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		3B	Brendan Donovan	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		C	Cal Raleigh	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0.250
current	SEA		1B	Josh Naylor	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		SS	Colt Emerson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	TB	1	DH	Yandy Díaz	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	TB	2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	TB	3	3B	Junior Caminero	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	TB	4	C	Liam Hicks	4	3	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	TB	5	LF	Chandler Simpson	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TB	6	CF	Jonny DeLuca	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TB	7	RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TB	8	2B	Richie Palacios	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TB	9	SS	Taylor Walls	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	1	RF	Taylor Ward	5	5	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	SEA	2	2B	Cole Young	5	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	3	LF	Randy Arozarena	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	4	DH	Dominic Canzone	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	SEA	5	CF	Julio Rodríguez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	6	1B	Josh Naylor	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	SEA	7	3B	Brendan Donovan	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	8	C	Cal Raleigh	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	9	SS	Colt Emerson	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TB	1	Drew Rasmussen	Starter	6.0	5	2	2	2	5	1	0	0	3.00	2.91	0.93
current	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	6.75	1.42	0.83
current	TB	3	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.08	0.85
current	TB	4	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.12	1.18
current	SEA	1	Logan Gilbert	Starter	6.1	5	3	3	1	4	1	0	0	4.26	3.46	0.99
current	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.46	1.18
current	SEA	3	José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.35	1.34
current	SEA	4	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	13.50	3.47	1.30
current	SEA	5	Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		2.10	1.07
simulation	TB	1	Drew Rasmussen	Starter	6.0	5	2	2	2	5	1	25	110	3.00	2.91	0.93
simulation	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	1	0	0	6	24	6.75	1.42	0.83
simulation	TB	3	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	2.08	0.85
simulation	TB	4	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	14	0.00	3.12	1.18
simulation	SEA	1	Logan Gilbert	Starter	6.1	5	3	3	1	4	1	25	99	4.26	3.46	0.99
simulation	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	0.00	3.46	1.18
simulation	SEA	3	José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	14	0.00	3.35	1.34
simulation	SEA	4	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	0	3	5	13.50	3.47	1.30
simulation	SEA	5	Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	13		2.10	1.07

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TB	Drew Rasmussen	Starter	6.0	2	5	2	5	25	110
TB	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	6	24
TB	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
TB	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	0	0	3	14
SEA	Logan Gilbert	Starter	6.1	3	5	1	4	25	99
SEA	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	3
SEA	José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
SEA	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	0	0	3	5
SEA	Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	1	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260807_TOR@PHI

20260807_TOR@PHI.json • 2026-08-07

TOR 2 - PHI 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 96INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=33; H: current=10, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=10, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kyle Schwarber: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Bryson Stott: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Luis Arraez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=2 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Brandon Marsh: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; J.T. Realmuto: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jesús Sánchez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Kazuma Okamoto: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: AB current=5 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Josh Smith: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Myles Straw: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Alejandro Kirk: SO current=0 box=1; Nathan Lukes: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Andrés Giménez: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match TOR pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match TOR pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match TOR pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=35 matches TOR BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match PHI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match PHI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match PHI pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=32 matches PHI BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.474/0.650.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 4, PHI 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 2 - PHI 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'TOR', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-06-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-06-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-06-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'PHI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PHI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'output_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PHI', 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 2 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'TOR 2 - 6 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 2, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6466, 'winner': 'PHI', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_TOR@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@PHI.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 150.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 123.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 123.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 150.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 2 - 6 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 2 - 6 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PHI, simulation=PHI, published=PHI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PHI wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-6, final 2-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match TOR pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match TOR pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match TOR pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=35 matches TOR BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match PHI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match PHI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match PHI pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=32 matches PHI BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.474/0.650.
PASS	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Final decision policy preserved model ownership of the winner.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 4, PHI 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 2 - PHI 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'TOR', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-06-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-06-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-06-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'PHI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'reason': 'no_verified_prior_matchup_predictions', 'verification_policy': 'pregame_artifact_matched_to_one_official_final', 'verified_outcome_count': 0, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PHI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'output_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'simulation_score_winner': 'PHI', 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False}, 'hard_flip_suppressed': False, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 2 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'TOR 2 - 6 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'simulation_would_flip_winner': False, 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 2, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'final_prediction_source': 'stable_final_prediction_policy', 'final_decision_policy': {'policy_version': 'model_winner_simulation_score_v1', 'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'winner': 'PHI', 'model_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'simulation_winner_agrees': True, 'simulation_score_enabled': True, 'simulation_usage': 'organic_score_same_winner', 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'model_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4}, 'simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6}}, 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6466, 'winner': 'PHI', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-08-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260807_TOR@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@PHI.
PASS	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction pipeline version is current: enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 150.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 123.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 123.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 150.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 2 - 6 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 2 - 6 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation decision is explicit: model=PHI, simulation=PHI, published=PHI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PHI wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-6, final 2-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=33; H: current=10, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=10, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kyle Schwarber: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Bryson Stott: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Luis Arraez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=2 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Brandon Marsh: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; J.T. Realmuto: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jesús Sánchez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Kazuma Okamoto: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: AB current=5 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Josh Smith: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Myles Straw: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Alejandro Kirk: SO current=0 box=1; Nathan Lukes: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Andrés Giménez: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.4202444553375244	4.792256832122803		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.600	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	2	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4
PHI	0	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	6	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TOR	batting	34	9	0	0	0	2	1	0	6	0	0	0	0
current	TOR	pitching		9			3		6	2	9					8.0	6	0	0
current	PHI	batting	37	10	0	0	0	4	4	2	10	0	0	0	0
current	PHI	pitching		4			1		2	1	3					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	TOR	batting	31	4	2	0	1	2	2	1	3	0	0
simulation	TOR	pitching		9			3		6	2	9					8.0	6	35	150
simulation	PHI	batting	33	9	1	0	3	6	6	2	9	0	0
simulation	PHI	pitching		4			1		2	1	3					9.0	2	32	123

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	TOR		LF	Jesús Sánchez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	TOR		1B	Kazuma Okamoto	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	TOR		2B	Ernie Clement	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.200
current	TOR		3B	Josh Smith	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	TOR		DH	Myles Straw	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TOR		C	Alejandro Kirk	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		RF	Nathan Lukes	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	TOR		SS	Andrés Giménez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	TOR		CF	George Springer	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
current	PHI		RF	Bryce Harper	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	PHI		1B	Alec Bohm	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	PHI		DH	Kyle Schwarber	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	0.200
current	PHI		SS	Trea Turner	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	PHI		3B	Bryson Stott	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	PHI		2B	Luis Arraez	0	5	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.400
current	PHI		LF	Brandon Marsh	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	PHI		C	J.T. Realmuto	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	PHI		CF	Justin Crawford	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	TOR	1	RF	Nathan Lukes	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	2	C	Alejandro Kirk	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	TOR	3	LF	Jesús Sánchez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TOR	4	DH	George Springer	4	4	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	TOR	5	1B	Kazuma Okamoto	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	6	2B	Ernie Clement	3	3	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	TOR	7	3B	Josh Smith	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	8	RF	Myles Straw	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TOR	9	SS	Andrés Giménez	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	1	DH	Kyle Schwarber	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0.000
simulation	PHI	2	SS	Trea Turner	4	4	2	1	0	1	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	PHI	3	RF	Bryce Harper	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.500
simulation	PHI	4	2B	Luis Arraez	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	PHI	5	1B	Alec Bohm	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	6	LF	Brandon Marsh	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	PHI	7	C	J.T. Realmuto	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	PHI	8	3B	Bryson Stott	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	9	CF	Justin Crawford	3	3	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.667

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TOR	1	José Soriano	Starter	5.2	6	4	4	1	6	2	0	0	6.35	3.29	1.25
current	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	1.38	1.02
current	TOR	3	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.59	1.08
current	TOR	4	Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever	0.1	3	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	27.00	3.04	1.09
current	TOR	6	Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0		3.55	1.27
current	PHI	1	Zack Wheeler	Starter	6.0	3	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	1.50	2.49	0.91
current	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.37	0.89
current	PHI	3	Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	2.88	0.98
current	PHI	4	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.40	1.27
simulation	TOR	1	José Soriano	Starter	5.2	6	4	4	1	6	2	24	93	6.35	3.29	1.25
simulation	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	3	18	9.00	1.38	1.02
simulation	TOR	3	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	1.59	1.08
simulation	TOR	4	Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever	0.1	3	1	1	0	1	1	4	14	27.00	3.04	1.09
simulation	TOR	5	Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	12		3.55	1.27
simulation	PHI	1	Zack Wheeler	Starter	6.0	3	1	1	1	3	0	22	89	1.50	2.49	0.91
simulation	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	15	0.00	1.37	0.89
simulation	PHI	3	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	0.00	3.40	1.27
simulation	PHI	4	Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	4	16	9.00	2.88	0.98

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TOR	José Soriano	Starter	5.2	4	6	1	6	24	93
TOR	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	18
TOR	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
TOR	Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	3	0	1	4	14
TOR	Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	1	0	1	12
PHI	Zack Wheeler	Starter	6.0	1	3	1	3	22	89
PHI	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	15
PHI	Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16
PHI	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	3

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	good	1	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	good	1	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.