MLB JSON Audit Report

20260730_BOS@OAK

20260730_BOS@OAK.json • 2026-07-30

BOS 6 - OAK 2

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 20.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 2PASS 93INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Final Decision Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	Pipeline Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision				FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline				PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=6; R: current=2, sim=6; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Willson Contreras: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Wilyer Abreu: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Masataka Yoshida: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Ceddanne Rafaela: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Caleb Durbin: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: BB current=0 box=1; Andruw Monasterio: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Anthony Seigler: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carlos Cortes: BB current=0 box=1; Tommy White: AB current=5 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Jeff McNeil: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Tyler Soderstrom: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Henry Bolte: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jonah Heim: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jacob Wilson: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match OAK pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=42 matches OAK BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match BOS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match BOS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match BOS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=36 matches BOS BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.469/0.650.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 10, OAK 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 6 - OAK 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'BOS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'confidence': 0.58, 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260729_BOS@OAK.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260728_BOS@OAK.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260727_BOS@OAK.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BOS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BOS 5 - 4 OAK', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'BOS 6 - 2 OAK', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.7684, 'winner': 'BOS', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_BOS@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@OAK.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 172.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 172.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 6 - 2 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 6 - 2 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=BOS, final=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-2, final 6-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match OAK pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=42 matches OAK BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match BOS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match BOS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match BOS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=36 matches BOS BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.469/0.650.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 10, OAK 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 6 - OAK 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'BOS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'confidence': 0.58, 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260729_BOS@OAK.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260728_BOS@OAK.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260727_BOS@OAK.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BOS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BOS 5 - 4 OAK', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'BOS 6 - 2 OAK', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.7684, 'winner': 'BOS', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_BOS@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@OAK.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 172.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 172.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 6 - 2 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 6 - 2 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=BOS, final=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-2, final 6-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=6; R: current=2, sim=6; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Willson Contreras: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Wilyer Abreu: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Masataka Yoshida: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Ceddanne Rafaela: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Caleb Durbin: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: BB current=0 box=1; Andruw Monasterio: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Anthony Seigler: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carlos Cortes: BB current=0 box=1; Tommy White: AB current=5 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Jeff McNeil: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Tyler Soderstrom: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Henry Bolte: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jonah Heim: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jacob Wilson: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.02069616317749	4.723904132843018		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	0	4	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	6	10
OAK	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	BOS	batting	34	9	0	0	0	2	2	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	BOS	pitching		5			0		2	4	9					9.0	2	0	0
current	OAK	batting	33	9	0	0	0	0	2	0	7	0	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		10			2		6	5	6					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	BOS	batting	37	10	1	0	2	6	6	5	6	0	0
simulation	BOS	pitching		5			0		2	4	9					9.0	2	36	151
simulation	OAK	batting	32	5	2	0	0	2	2	4	9	0	0
simulation	OAK	pitching		10			2		6	5	6					9.0	6	42	172

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	BOS		1B	Willson Contreras	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	BOS		RF	Wilyer Abreu	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	BOS		DH	Masataka Yoshida	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	BOS		CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.200
current	BOS		3B	Caleb Durbin	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	BOS		LF	Jarren Duran	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	BOS		SS	Andruw Monasterio	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BOS		2B	Anthony Seigler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BOS		C	Connor Wong	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	OAK		DH	Carlos Cortes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	OAK		3B	Tommy White	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	OAK		2B	Donovan Walton	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	OAK		1B	Jeff McNeil	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	OAK		LF	Tyler Soderstrom	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		CF	Henry Bolte	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	OAK		C	Jonah Heim	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		SS	Jacob Wilson	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
current	OAK		RF	Lawrence Butler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	BOS	1	DH	Masataka Yoshida	5	5	2	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.400
simulation	BOS	2	CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	BOS	3	1B	Willson Contreras	5	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.200
simulation	BOS	4	RF	Wilyer Abreu	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.400
simulation	BOS	5	3B	Caleb Durbin	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	BOS	6	LF	Jarren Duran	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	BOS	7	SS	Andruw Monasterio	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.667
simulation	BOS	8	2B	Anthony Seigler	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	9	C	Connor Wong	4	3	1	0	1	1	2	1	1	0.333
simulation	OAK	1	SS	Jacob Wilson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	OAK	2	LF	Tyler Soderstrom	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	OAK	3	3B	Tommy White	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	OAK	4	DH	Carlos Cortes	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	OAK	5	C	Jonah Heim	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	OAK	6	2B	Donovan Walton	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	OAK	7	1B	Jeff McNeil	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	8	RF	Lawrence Butler	4	2	1	1	0	1	0	2	1	0.500
simulation	OAK	9	CF	Henry Bolte	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	BOS	1	Sonny Gray	Starter	6.0	1	0	0	3	7	0	0	0	0.00	2.78	1.16
current	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	18.00	1.01	1.12
current	BOS	3	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.02	0.88
current	BOS	4	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.61	1.35
current	BOS	6	Tyron Guerrero	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		2.16	1.00
current	OAK	1	Mason Barnett	Starter	4.2	6	5	5	5	3	1	0	0	9.64	4.74	1.38
current	OAK	2	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	6.75	3.33	1.38
current	OAK	3	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5.06	1.25
current	OAK	4	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.38	1.48
current	OAK	5	José Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.63	1.46
simulation	BOS	1	Sonny Gray	Starter	6.0	1	0	0	3	7	0	22	91	0.00	2.78	1.16
simulation	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	0	6	15	18.00	1.01	1.12
simulation	BOS	3	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.02	0.88
simulation	BOS	4	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	4.61	1.35
simulation	BOS	5	Tyron Guerrero	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	16		2.16	1.00
simulation	OAK	1	Mason Barnett	Starter	4.2	6	5	5	5	3	1	25	97	9.64	4.74	1.38
simulation	OAK	2	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.38	1.48
simulation	OAK	3	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	18	0.00	5.06	1.25
simulation	OAK	4	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	2	1	5	24	6.75	3.33	1.38
simulation	OAK	5	José Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	4.63	1.46

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
BOS	Sonny Gray	Starter	6.0	0	1	3	7	22	91
BOS	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	1	1	6	15
BOS	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
BOS	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
BOS	Tyron Guerrero	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	1	0	0	1	16
OAK	Mason Barnett	Starter	4.2	5	6	5	3	25	97
OAK	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	0	2	5	24
OAK	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	18
OAK	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	17
OAK	José Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	warning	1	0	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	warning	1	0	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	0	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260730_CHC@STL

20260730_CHC@STL.json • 2026-07-30

CHC 6 - STL 4

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 20.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 2PASS 93INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Final Decision Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	Pipeline Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision				FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline				PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=7, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Michael Busch: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Conforto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ian Happ: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Alex Bregman: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4, BB current=0 box=1; Carson Kelly: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=3; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Wetherholt: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Iván Herrera: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Lars Nootbaar: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bryan Torres: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Blaze Jordan: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Alec Burleson: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Nathan Church: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match STL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match STL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match STL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=41 matches STL BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match CHC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match CHC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=36 matches CHC BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.460.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.668/0.884.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 10, STL 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 6 - STL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.54, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': 11, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.54, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260729_CHC@STL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.54, 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 8, 'path': '20260728_CHC@STL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260727_CHC@STL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.5163941212711489, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260705_STL@CHC.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260704_STL@CHC.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'STL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'STL', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 5 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.0139, 'winner': 'CHC', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_CHC@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@STL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 181.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 181.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 6 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 6 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CHC, final=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.540.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match STL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match STL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match STL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=41 matches STL BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match CHC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match CHC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=36 matches CHC BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.460.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.668/0.884.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 10, STL 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 6 - STL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.54, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': 11, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 3, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.54, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260729_CHC@STL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.54, 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 8, 'path': '20260728_CHC@STL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260727_CHC@STL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.5163941212711489, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260705_STL@CHC.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260704_STL@CHC.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'STL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'STL', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 5 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.0139, 'winner': 'CHC', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_CHC@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@STL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 181.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 181.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 6 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 6 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CHC, final=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.540.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=7, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Michael Busch: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Conforto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ian Happ: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Alex Bregman: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4, BB current=0 box=1; Carson Kelly: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=3; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Wetherholt: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Iván Herrera: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Lars Nootbaar: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bryan Torres: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Blaze Jordan: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Alec Burleson: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Nathan Church: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.3493428230285645	4.810977458953857		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5	3	0.540	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	6	10
STL	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	4	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHC	batting	37	9	0	0	0	5	7	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	CHC	pitching		6			1		4	3	8					9.0	4	0	0
current	STL	batting	32	9	0	0	0	2	4	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		10			2		6	4	9					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	CHC	batting	37	10	2	1	2	6	6	4	9	0	0
simulation	CHC	pitching		6			1		4	3	8					9.0	4	36	156
simulation	STL	batting	32	6	1	1	1	4	4	3	8	1	0
simulation	STL	pitching		10			2		6	4	9					9.0	6	41	181

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	CHC		DH	Seiya Suzuki	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		1B	Michael Busch	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.200
current	CHC		CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	CHC		RF	Michael Conforto	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHC		LF	Ian Happ	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		3B	Alex Bregman	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.200
current	CHC		2B	Nico Hoerner	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	CHC		C	Carson Kelly	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHC		SS	Dansby Swanson	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	STL		2B	JJ Wetherholt	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	STL		DH	Jordan Walker	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	STL		C	Iván Herrera	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	STL		RF	Lars Nootbaar	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	STL		LF	Bryan Torres	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	STL		3B	Blaze Jordan	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
current	STL		1B	Alec Burleson	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	STL		CF	Nathan Church	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	STL		SS	Masyn Winn	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHC	1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	2	DH	Seiya Suzuki	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.200
simulation	CHC	3	1B	Michael Busch	5	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.750
simulation	CHC	4	3B	Alex Bregman	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.400
simulation	CHC	5	LF	Ian Happ	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
simulation	CHC	6	2B	Nico Hoerner	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	4	1	1	0.333
simulation	CHC	7	RF	Michael Conforto	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	CHC	8	C	Carson Kelly	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	9	SS	Dansby Swanson	4	4	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	STL	1	2B	JJ Wetherholt	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	STL	2	DH	Jordan Walker	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	STL	3	1B	Alec Burleson	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	STL	4	C	Iván Herrera	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	STL	5	RF	Lars Nootbaar	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	STL	6	SS	Masyn Winn	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	STL	7	LF	Bryan Torres	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	STL	8	3B	Blaze Jordan	4	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	STL	9	CF	Nathan Church	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHC	1	Javier Assad	Starter	5.0	4	3	3	3	7	0	0	0	5.40	3.86	1.12
current	CHC	2	Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.66	1.16
current	CHC	3	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.72	1.27
current	CHC	4	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.76	1.07
current	CHC	5	Ryan Rolison	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	2.66	1.30
current	STL	1	Andre Pallante	Starter	5.2	7	6	6	3	5	2	0	0	9.53	3.77	1.21
current	STL	2	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.42	1.10
current	STL	3	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.59	1.22
current	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.14	1.40
current	STL	5	Gordon Graceffo	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.19	1.12
simulation	CHC	1	Javier Assad	Starter	5.0	4	3	3	3	7	0	22	95	5.40	3.86	1.12
simulation	CHC	2	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	2.72	1.27
simulation	CHC	3	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.76	1.07
simulation	CHC	4	Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	14	0.00	3.66	1.16
simulation	CHC	5	Ryan Rolison	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	4	18	9.00	2.66	1.30
simulation	STL	1	Andre Pallante	Starter	5.2	7	6	6	3	5	2	27	109	9.53	3.77	1.21
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	16	0.00	3.59	1.22
simulation	STL	3	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	3.42	1.10
simulation	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	16	0.00	4.14	1.40
simulation	STL	5	Gordon Graceffo	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	24	0.00	3.19	1.12

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHC	Javier Assad	Starter	5.0	3	4	3	7	22	95
CHC	Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
CHC	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
CHC	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
CHC	Ryan Rolison	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	18
STL	Andre Pallante	Starter	5.2	6	7	3	5	27	109
STL	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
STL	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	16
STL	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	16
STL	Gordon Graceffo	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	1	1	0	3	24

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	warning	1	0	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	warning	1	0	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	0	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260730_KC@MIN

20260730_KC@MIN.json • 2026-07-30

KC 4 - MIN 5

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 20.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 2PASS 94INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Final Decision Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	Pipeline Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision				FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline				PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=1, sim=4; R: current=0, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Salvador Perez: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Michael Massey: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Jac Caglianone: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Josh Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Lane Thomas: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=7; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=2, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Austin Martin: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Victor Caratini: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Luke Keaschall: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan Jeffers: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Kreidler: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match MIN pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match MIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match MIN pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=38 matches MIN BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match KC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match KC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=36 matches KC BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.460/0.640.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 6, MIN 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 4 - MIN 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIN; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-06-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'KC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260729_KC@MIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260728_KC@MIN.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIN', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'KC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'final_score_winner': 'MIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 3 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 5 MIN', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6881, 'winner': 'MIN', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_KC@MIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@MIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 4 - 5 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 4 - 5 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIN, final=MIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIN wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match MIN pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match MIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match MIN pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=38 matches MIN BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match KC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match KC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=36 matches KC BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.460/0.640.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 6, MIN 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 4 - MIN 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIN; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-06-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'KC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260729_KC@MIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260728_KC@MIN.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIN', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'KC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'final_score_winner': 'MIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 3 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 5 MIN', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6881, 'winner': 'MIN', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_KC@MIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@MIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 4 - 5 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 4 - 5 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIN, final=MIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIN wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIN wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=1, sim=4; R: current=0, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Salvador Perez: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Michael Massey: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Jac Caglianone: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Josh Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Lane Thomas: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=7; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=2, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Austin Martin: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Victor Caratini: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Luke Keaschall: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan Jeffers: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Brooks Lee: SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Kreidler: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.16756010055542	5.389854431152344		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	4	6
MIN	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	KC	batting	33	9	0	0	0	1	0	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		7			1		5	4	7					8.0	5	0	0
current	MIN	batting	31	9	0	0	0	2	2	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIN	pitching		6			2		4	4	5					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	KC	batting	33	6	1	0	2	4	4	4	5	0	1
simulation	KC	pitching		7			1		5	4	7					8.0	5	36	157
simulation	MIN	batting	31	7	0	0	1	5	5	4	7	0	1
simulation	MIN	pitching		6			2		4	4	5					9.0	4	38	155

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	KC		1B	Salvador Perez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		DH	Michael Massey	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		2B	Nick Loftin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		RF	Jac Caglianone	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	KC		LF	Isaac Collins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		3B	Josh Rojas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		CF	Lane Thomas	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		C	Carter Jensen	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	KC		SS	Andrew Velazquez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		LF	Austin Martin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		2B	Royce Lewis	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		1B	Victor Caratini	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		CF	Luke Keaschall	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		C	Ryan Jeffers	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		3B	Brooks Lee	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		SS	Ryan Kreidler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		DH	Josh Bell	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		RF	Alan Roden	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	KC	1	C	Carter Jensen	5	4	3	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.750
simulation	KC	2	CF	Lane Thomas	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	3	RF	Jac Caglianone	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	KC	4	1B	Salvador Perez	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	KC	5	DH	Michael Massey	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	6	2B	Nick Loftin	4	4	2	1	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	KC	7	LF	Isaac Collins	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	8	3B	Josh Rojas	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	KC	9	SS	Andrew Velazquez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	1	LF	Austin Martin	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	MIN	2	2B	Royce Lewis	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	3	C	Ryan Jeffers	4	4	2	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	MIN	4	DH	Josh Bell	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	5	1B	Victor Caratini	4	3	2	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	MIN	6	CF	Luke Keaschall	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	7	3B	Brooks Lee	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	8	SS	Ryan Kreidler	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	9	RF	Alan Roden	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	KC	1	Noah Cameron	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	3	4	0	0	0	5.40	4.93	1.41
current	KC	2	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	18.00	2.00	0.93
current	KC	3	Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.38	1.26
current	KC	5	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	6.33	1.55
current	MIN	1	Bailey Ober	Starter	5.0	3	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	1.80	4.56	1.25
current	MIN	2	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.24	1.26
current	MIN	3	Tommy Nance	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	1	0	0	27.00	3.66	1.32
current	MIN	4	Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	3.40	1.26
current	MIN	5	Travis Adams	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5.29	1.39
simulation	KC	1	Noah Cameron	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	3	4	0	24	97	5.40	4.93	1.41
simulation	KC	2	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	18	0.00	6.33	1.55
simulation	KC	3	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	2	0	1	1	4	16	18.00	2.00	0.93
simulation	KC	4	Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	1	1	0	7	26	0.00	4.38	1.26
simulation	MIN	1	Bailey Ober	Starter	5.0	3	1	1	3	1	1	22	85	1.80	4.56	1.25
simulation	MIN	2	Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	14	0.00	3.40	1.26
simulation	MIN	3	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	20	0.00	3.24	1.26
simulation	MIN	4	Tommy Nance	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	1	6	13	27.00	3.66	1.32
simulation	MIN	5	Travis Adams	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	23	0.00	5.29	1.39

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
KC	Noah Cameron	Starter	5.0	3	5	3	4	24	97
KC	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	0	1	4	16
KC	Steven Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	1	1	7	26
KC	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	18
MIN	Bailey Ober	Starter	5.0	1	3	3	1	22	85
MIN	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	20
MIN	Tommy Nance	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	1	0	6	13
MIN	Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	3	3	14
MIN	Travis Adams	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	0	0	3	23

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	warning	1	0	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	warning	1	0	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	0	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260730_MIA@NYM

20260730_MIA@NYM.json • 2026-07-30

MIA 3 - NYM 4

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 20.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 2PASS 93INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Final Decision Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	Pipeline Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision				FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline				PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Liam Hicks: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Griffin Conine: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Heriberto Hernández: RBI current=1 box=0; Joe Mack: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jakob Marsee: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=4; RBI: current=2, sim=4; R: current=1, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carson Benge: H current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; A.J. Ewing: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Bo Bichette: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Luis Robert Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jorge Polanco: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2; Jared Young: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Marcus Semien: R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match NYM pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=35 matches NYM BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match MIA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match MIA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=39 matches MIA BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.474.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.526.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.526.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.588/0.789.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIA 5, NYM 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIA 3 - NYM 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYM.	{'winner_confidence': 0.526345577720139, 'h2h_net_margin': 16, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_MIA@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIA@NYM.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIA 3 - 4 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIA 3 - 4 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYM, final=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.526.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYM wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match NYM pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=35 matches NYM BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match MIA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match MIA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=39 matches MIA BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.474.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.526.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.526.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.588/0.789.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIA 5, NYM 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIA 3 - NYM 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYM.	{'winner_confidence': 0.526345577720139, 'h2h_net_margin': 16, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_MIA@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIA@NYM.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIA 3 - 4 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIA 3 - 4 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYM, final=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.526.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYM wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Liam Hicks: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Griffin Conine: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Heriberto Hernández: RBI current=1 box=0; Joe Mack: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jakob Marsee: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=4; RBI: current=2, sim=4; R: current=1, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carson Benge: H current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; A.J. Ewing: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Bo Bichette: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Luis Robert Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jorge Polanco: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2; Jared Young: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Marcus Semien: R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.182330131530762	4.963873863220215		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	2	3	0.526	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	2	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	5
NYM	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	4	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIA	batting	33	9	0	0	0	4	2	2	7	0	0	0	0
current	MIA	pitching		8			0		4	3	8					8.0	4	0	0
current	NYM	batting	35	9	0	0	0	2	1	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	NYM	pitching		5			1		3	3	11					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	MIA	batting	32	5	1	0	1	3	3	3	11	0	0
simulation	MIA	pitching		8			0		4	3	8					8.0	4	39	154
simulation	NYM	batting	34	8	4	0	0	4	4	3	8	0	2
simulation	NYM	pitching		5			1		3	3	11					9.0	3	35	142

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	MIA		1B	Kyle Stowers	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		DH	Liam Hicks	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	MIA		RF	Griffin Conine	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		3B	Javier Sanoja	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIA		LF	Heriberto Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		C	Joe Mack	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		CF	Jakob Marsee	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		SS	Otto Lopez	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	MIA		2B	Xavier Edwards	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		RF	Carson Benge	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		SS	Francisco Lindor	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		LF	A.J. Ewing	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		3B	Bo Bichette	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	NYM		CF	Luis Robert Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		DH	Jorge Polanco	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		1B	Jared Young	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		2B	Marcus Semien	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		C	Francisco Alvarez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIA	1	SS	Otto Lopez	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	2	1B	Kyle Stowers	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	3	LF	Heriberto Hernández	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	4	2B	Xavier Edwards	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	5	DH	Liam Hicks	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	6	RF	Griffin Conine	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	7	3B	Javier Sanoja	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	8	C	Joe Mack	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	9	CF	Jakob Marsee	3	3	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.667
simulation	NYM	1	LF	A.J. Ewing	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.200
simulation	NYM	2	SS	Francisco Lindor	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	3	3B	Bo Bichette	5	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	NYM	4	RF	Carson Benge	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	5	CF	Luis Robert Jr.	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	NYM	6	DH	Jorge Polanco	4	4	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	NYM	7	1B	Jared Young	4	4	2	2	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	NYM	8	2B	Marcus Semien	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	9	C	Francisco Alvarez	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIA	1	Eury Pérez	Starter	6.0	4	1	1	1	8	0	0	0	1.50	3.56	1.11
current	MIA	2	Cade Gibson	Middle Reliever	1.0	4	3	3	2	0	0	0	0	27.00	5.79	1.46
current	MIA	3	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.84	1.02
current	MIA	6	Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		6.75	1.38
current	NYM	1	Nolan McLean	Starter	6.0	4	3	3	3	8	1	0	0	4.50	3.32	1.11
current	NYM	2	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.09	1.14
current	NYM	3	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.79	1.49
current	NYM	4	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.88	0.84
simulation	MIA	1	Eury Pérez	Starter	6.0	4	1	1	1	8	0	23	92	1.50	3.56	1.11
simulation	MIA	2	Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17		6.75	1.38
simulation	MIA	3	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	15	0.00	2.84	1.02
simulation	MIA	4	Cade Gibson	Middle Reliever	1.0	4	3	3	2	0	0	9	30	27.00	5.79	1.46
simulation	NYM	1	Nolan McLean	Starter	6.0	4	3	3	3	8	1	25	100	4.50	3.32	1.11
simulation	NYM	2	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	15	0.00	3.79	1.49
simulation	NYM	3	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	14	0.00	1.88	0.84
simulation	NYM	4	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	2.09	1.14

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIA	Eury Pérez	Starter	6.0	1	4	1	8	23	92
MIA	Cade Gibson	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	4	2	0	9	30
MIA	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	15
MIA	Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	4	17
NYM	Nolan McLean	Starter	6.0	3	4	3	8	25	100
NYM	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
NYM	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	15
NYM	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	warning	1	0	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	warning	1	0	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	0	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260730_NYY@CHW

20260730_NYY@CHW.json • 2026-07-30

NYY 6 - CHW 3

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 20.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 2PASS 93INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Final Decision Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	Pipeline Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision				FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline				PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=10, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Colson Montgomery: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Chase Meidroth: R current=1 box=0; Drew Romo: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Munetaka Murakami: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Sam Antonacci: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=1, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Paul Goldschmidt: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Spencer Jones: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Trent Grisham: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Jasson Domínguez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Anthony Volpe: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan McMahon: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match NYY pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match NYY pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match NYY pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=38 matches NYY BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match CHW pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match CHW pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match CHW pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=37 matches CHW BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.506/0.694.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 8, CHW 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 6 - CHW 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'NYY'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.58, 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260729_NYY@CHW.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260728_NYY@CHW.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260727_NYY@CHW.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 5 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 3 CHW', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4845, 'winner': 'NYY', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_NYY@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@CHW.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 6 - 3 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 6 - 3 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYY, final=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYY wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-3, final 6-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match NYY pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match NYY pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match NYY pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=38 matches NYY BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match CHW pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match CHW pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match CHW pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=37 matches CHW BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.506/0.694.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 8, CHW 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 6 - CHW 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'NYY'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.58, 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260729_NYY@CHW.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260728_NYY@CHW.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260727_NYY@CHW.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYY 5 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYY 6 - 3 CHW', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4845, 'winner': 'NYY', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_NYY@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@CHW.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 6 - 3 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 6 - 3 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYY, final=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYY wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-3, final 6-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; 2B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=10, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Colson Montgomery: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Chase Meidroth: R current=1 box=0; Drew Romo: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Munetaka Murakami: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Sam Antonacci: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=1, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Paul Goldschmidt: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Spencer Jones: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Trent Grisham: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Jasson Domínguez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Anthony Volpe: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan McMahon: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.096894264221191	4.3087158203125		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	6	8
CHW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	NYY	batting	34	9	0	0	0	3	4	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	NYY	pitching		8			1		3	1	6					9.0	3	0	0
current	CHW	batting	32	8	0	0	0	4	5	2	10	0	0	0	0
current	CHW	pitching		8			2		6	2	9					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	NYY	batting	35	8	2	0	2	6	6	2	9	0	0
simulation	NYY	pitching		8			1		3	1	6					9.0	3	38	145
simulation	CHW	batting	35	8	3	0	1	3	3	1	6	0	2
simulation	CHW	pitching		8			2		6	2	9					9.0	6	37	170

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	NYY		DH	Paul Goldschmidt	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		LF	Spencer Jones	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYY		CF	Trent Grisham	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.200
current	NYY		RF	Jasson Domínguez	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	NYY		1B	Ben Rice	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		SS	Anthony Volpe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYY		3B	Ryan McMahon	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYY		C	Austin Wells	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHW		DH	Colson Montgomery	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		C	Chase Meidroth	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		1B	Drew Romo	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	CHW		2B	Tristan Peters	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHW		3B	Munetaka Murakami	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	0.250
current	CHW		SS	Miguel Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		LF	Braden Montgomery	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		CF	Sam Antonacci	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHW		RF	Andrew Benintendi	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	NYY	1	CF	Trent Grisham	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	2	1B	Ben Rice	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	NYY	3	RF	Jasson Domínguez	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	NYY	4	DH	Paul Goldschmidt	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	3	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	5	LF	Spencer Jones	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	6	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	7	SS	Anthony Volpe	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	8	3B	Ryan McMahon	4	4	2	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	NYY	9	C	Austin Wells	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	1	CF	Tristan Peters	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	CHW	2	SS	Colson Montgomery	5	5	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	CHW	3	2B	Chase Meidroth	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	CHW	4	IF	Munetaka Murakami	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	5	C	Drew Romo	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	CHW	6	3B	Miguel Vargas	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	7	OF	Braden Montgomery	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	0.667
simulation	CHW	8	SS	Sam Antonacci	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	9	DH	Andrew Benintendi	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	NYY	1	Ryan Weathers	Starter	5.0	6	3	3	1	4	1	0	0	5.40	4.25	1.27
current	NYY	2	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.33	1.09
current	NYY	3	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.74	1.07
current	NYY	4	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.58	1.30
current	NYY	5	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.15	1.04
current	CHW	1	Davis Martin	Starter	6.0	5	2	2	1	6	1	0	0	3.00	3.31	1.19
current	CHW	2	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	1	0	0	27.00	1.57	1.35
current	CHW	3	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.42	1.26
current	CHW	5	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	9.00	7.71	1.71
simulation	NYY	1	Ryan Weathers	Starter	5.0	6	3	3	1	4	1	23	90	5.40	4.25	1.27
simulation	NYY	2	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	18	0.00	2.74	1.07
simulation	NYY	3	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	18	0.00	2.58	1.30
simulation	NYY	4	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	1.33	1.09
simulation	NYY	5	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	3	0.00	2.15	1.04
simulation	CHW	1	Davis Martin	Starter	6.0	5	2	2	1	6	1	24	96	3.00	3.31	1.19
simulation	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	18	0.00	1.42	1.26
simulation	CHW	3	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	3	0	4	33	9.00	7.71	1.71
simulation	CHW	4	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	1	6	23	27.00	1.57	1.35

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
NYY	Ryan Weathers	Starter	5.0	3	6	1	4	23	90
NYY	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
NYY	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	4	18
NYY	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	18
NYY	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	3
CHW	Davis Martin	Starter	6.0	2	5	1	6	24	96
CHW	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	1	0	6	23
CHW	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	18
CHW	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	3	4	33

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	warning	1	0	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	warning	1	0	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	0	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260730_PIT@CIN

20260730_PIT@CIN.json • 2026-07-30

PIT 4 - CIN 3

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 20.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 2PASS 93INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Final Decision Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	Pipeline Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision				FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline				PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sal Stewart: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nathaniel Lowe: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=3; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Tyler Stephenson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=4; JJ Bleday: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Noelvi Marte: H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Dane Myers: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=36; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Esmerlyn Valdez: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ryan O'Hearn: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2; Jake Mangum: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brandon Lowe: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bryan Reynolds: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Endy Rodríguez: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Marcell Ozuna: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match PIT pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match PIT pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=36 matches PIT BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match CIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match CIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=39 matches CIN BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.445/0.622.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PIT 9, CIN 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PIT 4 - CIN 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PIT; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-06-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-06-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-06-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-06-28', 'predicted_team': 'CIN', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 5, 'path': '20260628_CIN@PIT.json'}, {'date': '2026-06-27', 'predicted_team': 'CIN', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260627_CIN@PIT.json'}, {'date': '2026-06-26', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.525, 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260626_CIN@PIT.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PIT', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'final_score_winner': 'PIT', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 3 CIN', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 3 CIN', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.0496, 'winner': 'PIT', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_PIT@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PIT@CIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PIT 4 - 3 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PIT 4 - 3 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=PIT, final=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match PIT pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match PIT pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=36 matches PIT BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match CIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match CIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=39 matches CIN BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.445/0.622.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PIT 9, CIN 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PIT 4 - CIN 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PIT; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-06-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-06-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-06-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-06-28', 'predicted_team': 'CIN', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 5, 'path': '20260628_CIN@PIT.json'}, {'date': '2026-06-27', 'predicted_team': 'CIN', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260627_CIN@PIT.json'}, {'date': '2026-06-26', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.525, 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260626_CIN@PIT.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PIT', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'final_score_winner': 'PIT', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 3 CIN', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 3 CIN', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.0496, 'winner': 'PIT', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_PIT@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PIT@CIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PIT 4 - 3 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PIT 4 - 3 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=PIT, final=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sal Stewart: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nathaniel Lowe: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=3; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Tyler Stephenson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=4; JJ Bleday: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Noelvi Marte: H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Dane Myers: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=36; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Esmerlyn Valdez: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ryan O'Hearn: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2; Jake Mangum: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brandon Lowe: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bryan Reynolds: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Endy Rodríguez: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Marcell Ozuna: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.6176605224609375	4.814754962921143		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.560	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	4	9
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	4

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	PIT	batting	37	9	0	0	0	5	5	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	PIT	pitching		4			1		3	4	11					9.0	3	0	0
current	CIN	batting	32	9	0	0	0	2	2	2	10	0	0	0	0
current	CIN	pitching		9			1		4	3	9					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	PIT	batting	36	9	0	0	1	4	4	3	9	0	0
simulation	PIT	pitching		4			1		3	4	11					9.0	3	36	155
simulation	CIN	batting	31	4	1	0	1	3	3	4	11	0	1
simulation	CIN	pitching		9			1		4	3	9					9.0	4	39	169

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	PIT		RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	PIT		1B	Ryan O'Hearn	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		3B	Nick Gonzales	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	PIT		CF	Jake Mangum	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	PIT		2B	Brandon Lowe	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	PIT		LF	Bryan Reynolds	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		C	Endy Rodríguez	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		DH	Marcell Ozuna	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		SS	Jacob Gonzalez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		3B	Sal Stewart	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		1B	Nathaniel Lowe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		DH	Eugenio Suárez	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0.250
current	CIN		SS	Elly De La Cruz	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.200
current	CIN		C	Tyler Stephenson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		LF	JJ Bleday	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		RF	Noelvi Marte	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		CF	Dane Myers	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		2B	Edwin Arroyo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	1	CF	Jake Mangum	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	PIT	2	2B	Brandon Lowe	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	3	LF	Bryan Reynolds	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	4	RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	5	1B	Ryan O'Hearn	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	PIT	6	3B	Nick Gonzales	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	PIT	7	C	Endy Rodríguez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	8	DH	Marcell Ozuna	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	9	SS	Jacob Gonzalez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	1	SS	Elly De La Cruz	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	2	3B	Sal Stewart	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	3	LF	JJ Bleday	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	4	DH	Eugenio Suárez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	5	1B	Nathaniel Lowe	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	6	C	Tyler Stephenson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	7	CF	Dane Myers	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	8	RF	Noelvi Marte	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CIN	9	SS	Edwin Arroyo	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	PIT	1	Yohan Ramírez	Starter	5.0	1	1	1	3	8	0	0	0	1.80	3.21	1.38
current	PIT	2	Carmen Mlodzinski	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.25	1.34
current	PIT	3	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.02	0.94
current	PIT	4	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	18.00	3.53	1.18
current	CIN	1	Rhett Lowder	Starter	4.0	9	4	4	2	5	1	0	0	9.00	5.61	1.57
current	CIN	2	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.61	1.30
current	CIN	3	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	5.06	1.22
current	CIN	4	Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.16	0.93
current	CIN	5	Caleb Ferguson	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.47	1.50
simulation	PIT	1	Yohan Ramírez	Starter	5.0	1	1	1	3	8	0	19	78	1.80	3.21	1.38
simulation	PIT	2	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	21	0.00	3.02	0.94
simulation	PIT	3	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	1	6	23	18.00	3.53	1.18
simulation	PIT	4	Carmen Mlodzinski	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	6	33	0.00	3.25	1.34
simulation	CIN	1	Rhett Lowder	Starter	4.0	9	4	4	2	5	1	23	97	9.00	5.61	1.57
simulation	CIN	2	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	5.06	1.22
simulation	CIN	3	Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.16	0.93
simulation	CIN	4	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	21	0.00	2.61	1.30
simulation	CIN	5	Caleb Ferguson	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.47	1.50

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
PIT	Yohan Ramírez	Starter	5.0	1	1	3	8	19	78
PIT	Carmen Mlodzinski	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	1	6	33
PIT	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	5	21
PIT	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	1	1	6	23
CIN	Rhett Lowder	Starter	4.0	4	9	2	5	23	97
CIN	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	21
CIN	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	17
CIN	Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
CIN	Caleb Ferguson	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	warning	1	0	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	warning	1	0	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	0	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260730_SEA@LAD

20260730_SEA@LAD.json • 2026-07-30

SEA 2 - LAD 5

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 20.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 2PASS 94INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Final Decision Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	Pipeline Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision				FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline				PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=9, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=6; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mookie Betts: AB current=5 box=4; Tommy Edman: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1; Freddie Freeman: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Max Muncy: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Andy Pages: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Dalton Rushing: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=10, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randy Arozarena: R current=1 box=0; Dominic Canzone: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; J.P. Crawford: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cal Raleigh: H current=1 box=0; Josh Naylor: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Luke Raley: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Colt Emerson: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match SEA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match SEA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=34 matches SEA BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match LAD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=33 matches LAD BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.426/0.600.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 6, LAD 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 2 - LAD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'SEA', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SEA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260729_SEA@LAD.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260728_SEA@LAD.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 2 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.5591, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_SEA@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@LAD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 2 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 2 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=LAD, final=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-5, final 2-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match SEA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match SEA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=34 matches SEA BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match LAD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=33 matches LAD BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.426/0.600.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 6, LAD 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 2 - LAD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'SEA', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SEA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260729_SEA@LAD.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260728_SEA@LAD.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'output_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 2 - 5 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.5591, 'winner': 'LAD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_SEA@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@LAD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 2 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 2 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=LAD, final=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-5, final 2-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=9, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=6; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mookie Betts: AB current=5 box=4; Tommy Edman: H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1; Freddie Freeman: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Max Muncy: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Andy Pages: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Dalton Rushing: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=10, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randy Arozarena: R current=1 box=0; Dominic Canzone: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; J.P. Crawford: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cal Raleigh: H current=1 box=0; Josh Naylor: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Luke Raley: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Colt Emerson: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.115777969360352	4.634639263153076		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	6
LAD	0	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	5	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SEA	batting	34	9	0	0	0	2	1	1	10	0	0	0	0
current	SEA	pitching		8			1		5	2	6					8.0	5	0	0
current	LAD	batting	37	9	0	0	0	5	9	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		6			1		2	0	11					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	SEA	batting	33	6	1	0	1	2	2	0	11	0	0
simulation	SEA	pitching		8			1		5	2	6					8.0	5	34	136
simulation	LAD	batting	31	8	1	1	1	5	5	2	6	1	0
simulation	LAD	pitching		6			1		2	0	11					9.0	2	33	139

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	SEA		LF	Randy Arozarena	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		DH	Dominic Canzone	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	SEA		CF	Julio Rodríguez	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.200
current	SEA		2B	Cole Young	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		3B	J.P. Crawford	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	SEA		C	Cal Raleigh	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
current	SEA		1B	Josh Naylor	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		RF	Luke Raley	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SEA		SS	Colt Emerson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		DH	Shohei Ohtani	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		SS	Mookie Betts	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	LAD		2B	Tommy Edman	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		3B	Max Muncy	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		CF	Andy Pages	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		C	Dalton Rushing	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	SEA	1	2B	Cole Young	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	SEA	2	CF	Julio Rodríguez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	SEA	3	DH	Dominic Canzone	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	SEA	4	LF	Randy Arozarena	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	SEA	5	1B	Josh Naylor	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	SEA	6	C	Cal Raleigh	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	SEA	7	RF	Luke Raley	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	SEA	8	3B	J.P. Crawford	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	SEA	9	SS	Colt Emerson	3	3	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.333
simulation	LAD	1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	2	CF	Andy Pages	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	3	1B	Freddie Freeman	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0.500
simulation	LAD	4	3B	Max Muncy	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	5	SS	Mookie Betts	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	LAD	6	2B	Tommy Edman	4	4	2	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	LAD	7	RF	Kyle Tucker	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	8	LF	Teoscar Hernández	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	LAD	9	C	Dalton Rushing	3	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.667

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SEA	1	Bryan Woo	Starter	5.1	7	5	5	1	4	1	0	0	8.44	4.37	1.14
current	SEA	2	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.87	1.26
current	SEA	3	José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.66	1.30
current	SEA	5	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.52	1.17
current	LAD	1	Roki Sasaki	Starter	5.0	6	2	2	0	8	1	0	0	3.60	4.71	1.29
current	LAD	2	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.45	0.75
current	LAD	3	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	6.75	1.35
current	LAD	4	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.47	0.82
current	LAD	5	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.68	1.19
simulation	SEA	1	Bryan Woo	Starter	5.1	7	5	5	1	4	1	24	92	8.44	4.37	1.14
simulation	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	14	0.00	3.52	1.17
simulation	SEA	3	José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	6	15	0.00	2.66	1.30
simulation	SEA	4	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	15	0.00	2.87	1.26
simulation	LAD	1	Roki Sasaki	Starter	5.0	6	2	2	0	8	1	21	88	3.60	4.71	1.29
simulation	LAD	2	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.47	0.82
simulation	LAD	3	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	4	0.00	6.75	1.35
simulation	LAD	4	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	14	0.00	2.68	1.19
simulation	LAD	5	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	16	0.00	2.45	0.75

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SEA	Bryan Woo	Starter	5.1	5	7	1	4	24	92
SEA	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	15
SEA	José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	1	6	15
SEA	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	14
LAD	Roki Sasaki	Starter	5.0	2	6	0	8	21	88
LAD	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	16
LAD	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	4
LAD	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
LAD	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	14

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	warning	1	0	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	warning	1	0	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	0	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260730_SF@SD

20260730_SF@SD.json • 2026-07-30

SF 1 - SD 5

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 20.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 2PASS 94INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Final Decision Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	Pipeline Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision				FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline				PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luis Rengifo: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Ty France: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Luis Campusano: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Freddy Fermin: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=32; H: current=10, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=1; BB: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heliot Ramos: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: AB current=6 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Rafael Devers: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Jung Hoo Lee: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Christian Koss: SO current=1 box=0; Drew Cavanaugh: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Willy Adames: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match SF pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match SF pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=34 matches SF BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match SD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match SD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match SD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=33 matches SD BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.619/0.826.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 5, SD 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 1 - SD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SD', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': 8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SF'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SF 2 - 4 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SF 1 - 5 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3358, 'winner': 'SD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_SF@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@SD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 1 - 5 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 1 - 5 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 5-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=SD, final=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SD wins 5-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 1-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 1-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 1-5, final 1-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 5-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match SF pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match SF pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=34 matches SF BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match SD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match SD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match SD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=33 matches SD BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.619/0.826.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 5, SD 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 1 - SD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SD', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': 8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SF'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SF 2 - 4 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SF 1 - 5 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3358, 'winner': 'SD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_SF@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@SD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 1 - 5 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 1 - 5 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 5-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=SD, final=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SD wins 5-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 1-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 1-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 1-5, final 1-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 5-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luis Rengifo: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Ty France: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Luis Campusano: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Freddy Fermin: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=32; H: current=10, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=1; BB: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heliot Ramos: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: AB current=6 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Rafael Devers: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Jung Hoo Lee: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Christian Koss: SO current=1 box=0; Drew Cavanaugh: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Willy Adames: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.404125213623047	4.844945907592773		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	2	4	0.600	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	2	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	1	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	5
SD	0	1	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	5	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SF	batting	37	10	0	0	0	5	5	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		9			2		5	1	5					8.0	5	0	0
current	SD	batting	32	9	0	0	0	4	3	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	SD	pitching		5			0		1	1	6					9.0	1	0	0
simulation	SF	batting	32	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	6	0	0
simulation	SF	pitching		9			2		5	1	5					8.0	5	34	131
simulation	SD	batting	33	9	2	0	2	5	5	1	5	0	0
simulation	SD	pitching		5			0		1	1	6					9.0	1	33	131

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	SF		LF	Heliot Ramos	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.200
current	SF		2B	Luis Arraez	0	6	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.333
current	SF		DH	Bryce Eldridge	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	SF		1B	Rafael Devers	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	SF		RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.200
current	SF		3B	Christian Koss	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SF		C	Drew Cavanaugh	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	SF		SS	Willy Adames	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	SF		CF	Drew Gilbert	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SD		2B	Luis Rengifo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	SD		1B	Ty France	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	SD		DH	Luis Campusano	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SD		RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	SD		LF	Jase Bowen	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SD		CF	Jackson Merrill	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	SD		3B	Manny Machado	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	SD		SS	Xander Bogaerts	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SD		C	Freddy Fermin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	SF	1	2B	Luis Arraez	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	SF	2	LF	Heliot Ramos	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SF	3	DH	Bryce Eldridge	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SF	4	1B	Rafael Devers	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	SF	5	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	6	SS	Willy Adames	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	SF	7	CF	Drew Gilbert	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SF	8	C	Drew Cavanaugh	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	SF	9	3B	Christian Koss	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	SD	1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SD	2	2B	Luis Rengifo	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	SD	3	3B	Manny Machado	4	3	2	1	1	1	2	1	0	0.667
simulation	SD	4	1B	Ty France	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	SD	5	CF	Jackson Merrill	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	SD	6	DH	Luis Campusano	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SD	7	SS	Xander Bogaerts	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SD	8	LF	Jase Bowen	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	SD	9	C	Freddy Fermin	3	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SF	1	Logan Webb	Starter	6.0	7	3	3	1	4	1	0	0	4.50	3.93	1.12
current	SF	2	Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.59	1.31
current	SF	4	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	18.00	3.83	1.25
current	SD	1	JP Sears	Starter	5.0	5	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	1.80	3.86	1.18
current	SD	2	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.14	1.12
current	SD	3	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.33	1.17
current	SD	4	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.79	0.79
simulation	SF	1	Logan Webb	Starter	6.0	7	3	3	1	4	1	26	101	4.50	3.93	1.12
simulation	SF	2	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	1	5	14	18.00	3.83	1.25
simulation	SF	3	Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	16	0.00	2.59	1.31
simulation	SD	1	JP Sears	Starter	5.0	5	1	1	0	4	0	20	78	1.80	3.86	1.18
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	21	0.00	0.79	0.79
simulation	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	16	0.00	3.14	1.12
simulation	SD	4	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	16	0.00	2.33	1.17

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SF	Logan Webb	Starter	6.0	3	7	1	4	26	101
SF	Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	16
SF	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	0	0	5	14
SD	JP Sears	Starter	5.0	1	5	0	4	20	78
SD	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	16
SD	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	16
SD	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	0	5	21

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	warning	1	0	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	warning	1	0	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	0	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260730_TEX@TB

20260730_TEX@TB.json • 2026-07-30

TEX 3 - TB 5

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 20.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 2PASS 94INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Final Decision Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	Pipeline Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision				FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline				PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=2, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonathan Aranda: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jonny DeLuca: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Cedric Mullins: H current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Ben Williamson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Hunter Feduccia: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brandon Nimmo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Duran: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cameron Cauley: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Nicky Lopez: AB current=3 box=4; Justin Foscue: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Alejandro Osuna: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Austin Wynns: AB current=3 box=4; Jake Burger: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match TEX pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match TEX pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=35 matches TEX BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match TB pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match TB pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=36 matches TB BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.547/0.741.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 7, TB 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 3 - TB 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'TEX', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TEX'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260729_TEX@TB.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.5968097858606976, 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260728_TEX@TB.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TEX 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 3 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7063, 'winner': 'TB', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_TEX@TB.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@TB.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 130.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 130.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 3 - 5 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 3 - 5 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=TB, final=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TB wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match TEX pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match TEX pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=35 matches TEX BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match TB pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match TB pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=36 matches TB BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.547/0.741.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 7, TB 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 3 - TB 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'TEX', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TEX'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-29', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260729_TEX@TB.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.5968097858606976, 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260728_TEX@TB.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TEX 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 3 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7063, 'winner': 'TB', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_TEX@TB.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@TB.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 130.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 130.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 3 - 5 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 3 - 5 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=TB, final=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TB wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=2, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonathan Aranda: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jonny DeLuca: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Cedric Mullins: H current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Ben Williamson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Hunter Feduccia: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brandon Nimmo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Duran: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Cameron Cauley: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Nicky Lopez: AB current=3 box=4; Justin Foscue: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Alejandro Osuna: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Austin Wynns: AB current=3 box=4; Jake Burger: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.310389995574951	5.400265693664551		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.560	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	7
TB	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TEX	batting	32	8	0	0	0	3	2	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	TEX	pitching		7			1		5	3	6					8.0	5	0	0
current	TB	batting	31	9	0	0	0	2	2	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	TB	pitching		7			1		3	2	8					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	TEX	batting	34	7	1	0	1	3	3	2	8	0	0
simulation	TEX	pitching		7			1		5	3	6					8.0	5	35	137
simulation	TB	batting	31	7	2	0	1	5	5	3	6	0	1
simulation	TB	pitching		7			1		3	2	8					9.0	3	36	130

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TEX		DH	Brandon Nimmo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		3B	Ezequiel Duran	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		CF	Cameron Cauley	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		SS	Nicky Lopez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		2B	Justin Foscue	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		RF	Alejandro Osuna	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		C	Austin Wynns	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	TEX		1B	Jake Burger	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		LF	Wyatt Langford	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	TB		1B	Jonathan Aranda	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		LF	Jonny DeLuca	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		DH	Yandy Díaz	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		CF	Cedric Mullins	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		3B	Junior Caminero	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		2B	Ben Williamson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		C	Hunter Feduccia	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		SS	Taylor Walls	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	TEX	1	LF	Wyatt Langford	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	2	3B	Ezequiel Duran	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TEX	3	DH	Brandon Nimmo	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	4	1B	Jake Burger	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	5	2B	Justin Foscue	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	TEX	6	CF	Cameron Cauley	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	7	SS	Nicky Lopez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	8	C	Austin Wynns	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	9	RF	Alejandro Osuna	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	TB	1	DH	Yandy Díaz	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0.000
simulation	TB	2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	4	3	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	1.000
simulation	TB	3	3B	Junior Caminero	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TB	4	CF	Cedric Mullins	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TB	5	LF	Jonny DeLuca	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	0.250
simulation	TB	6	RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	4	4	2	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TB	7	2B	Ben Williamson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TB	8	SS	Taylor Walls	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	TB	9	C	Hunter Feduccia	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TEX	1	Cole Winn	Starter	4.0	5	5	5	1	2	1	0	0	11.25	6.11	1.36
current	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.26	0.58
current	TEX	3	Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.70	1.07
current	TEX	4	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.43	1.25
current	TEX	5	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.13	1.33
current	TEX	6	Robby Ahlstrom	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.12	1.22
current	TB	1	Shane McClanahan	Starter	5.2	5	3	3	2	5	1	0	0	4.76	3.09	1.14
current	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.52	0.85
current	TB	3	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.41	1.23
current	TB	4	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.17	0.85
simulation	TEX	1	Cole Winn	Starter	4.0	5	5	5	1	2	1	18	69	11.25	6.11	1.36
simulation	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	7	0.00	1.26	0.58
simulation	TEX	3	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	17	0.00	3.43	1.25
simulation	TEX	4	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	15	0.00	3.13	1.33
simulation	TEX	5	Robby Ahlstrom	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	13	0.00	4.12	1.22
simulation	TEX	6	Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	16	0.00	2.70	1.07
simulation	TB	1	Shane McClanahan	Starter	5.2	5	3	3	2	5	1	24	94	4.76	3.09	1.14
simulation	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	16	0.00	1.52	0.85
simulation	TB	3	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	0.00	2.17	0.85
simulation	TB	4	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	3.41	1.23

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TEX	Cole Winn	Starter	4.0	5	5	1	2	18	69
TEX	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	7
TEX	Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	16
TEX	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17
TEX	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	3	15
TEX	Robby Ahlstrom	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	1	1	0	3	13
TB	Shane McClanahan	Starter	5.2	3	5	2	5	24	94
TB	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	16
TB	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	15
TB	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	0	5	5

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	warning	1	0	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	warning	1	0	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	0	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260730_WAS@ATL

20260730_WAS@ATL.json • 2026-07-30

WAS 3 - ATL 4

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 20.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 2PASS 94INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Final Decision Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	Pipeline Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision				FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline				PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	final_decision			FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	Artifact predates the explicit final decision policy.
WARN	pipeline			PIPELINE_VERSION	Prediction artifact does not identify its pipeline version.		enhanced_game_prediction_v3
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Drake Baldwin: AB current=5 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mike Yastrzemski: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Ozzie Albies: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jim Jarvis: SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Keibert Ruiz: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Luis García Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: H current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; CJ Abrams: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jorbit Vivas: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=4		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match WAS pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match WAS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match WAS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=34 matches WAS BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match ATL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match ATL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=39 matches ATL BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.445/0.622.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 11, ATL 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 3 - ATL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ATL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.6, 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_WAS@ATL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@ATL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 3 - 4 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 3 - 4 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ATL, final=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match WAS pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match WAS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match WAS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=34 matches WAS BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match ATL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match ATL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=39 matches ATL BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.445/0.622.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 11, ATL 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 3 - ATL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ATL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.6, 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260730_WAS@ATL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@ATL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 131.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 131.
PASS	pitcher_opponent_strength			PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	Pitcher-opponent adjustment stayed inside supported bounds.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 3 - 4 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 3 - 4 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ATL, final=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=37, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Drake Baldwin: AB current=5 box=4, BB current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mike Yastrzemski: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Ozzie Albies: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jim Jarvis: SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Keibert Ruiz: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Luis García Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: H current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; CJ Abrams: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jorbit Vivas: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=4	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.705455780029297	4.64621639251709		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.600	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	4	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	WAS	batting	34	9	0	0	5	3	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	WAS	pitching		7				4	3	4					8.0	4	0	0
current	ATL	batting	37	9	0	0	3	5	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		11				3	1	11					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	WAS	batting	38	11	2	0	3	3	1	11	0	0
simulation	WAS	pitching		7				4	3	4					8.0	4	34	131
simulation	ATL	batting	31	7	3	1	4	4	3	4	0	0
simulation	ATL	pitching		11				3	1	11					9.0	3	39	167

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	WAS		DH	James Wood	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	WAS		RF	Dylan Crews	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	WAS		C	Keibert Ruiz	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	WAS		1B	Luis García Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		LF	Daylen Lile	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		SS	CJ Abrams	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		3B	Jorbit Vivas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	WAS		2B	Nasim Nuñez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	WAS		CF	Jacob Young	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ATL		RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.200
current	ATL		C	Drake Baldwin	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.200
current	ATL		CF	Michael Harris II	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		DH	Mike Yastrzemski	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ATL		LF	Mauricio Dubón	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		SS	Jim Jarvis	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	WAS	1	DH	James Wood	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	WAS	2	1B	Luis García Jr.	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	WAS	3	RF	Dylan Crews	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	WAS	4	SS	CJ Abrams	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	WAS	5	C	Keibert Ruiz	4	4	3	1	0	1	2	0	1	0.750
simulation	WAS	6	LF	Daylen Lile	4	4	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.750
simulation	WAS	7	2B	Nasim Nuñez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	WAS	8	3B	Jorbit Vivas	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	WAS	9	CF	Jacob Young	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	ATL	1	C	Drake Baldwin	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	ATL	2	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	ATL	3	1B	Matt Olson	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	4	CF	Michael Harris II	4	3	2	2	0	1	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	ATL	5	2B	Ozzie Albies	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	6	LF	Mauricio Dubón	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	ATL	7	DH	Mike Yastrzemski	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	8	3B	Austin Riley	3	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	ATL	9	SS	Jim Jarvis	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	WAS	1	Cade Cavalli	Starter	5.1	5	4	4	3	3	0	0	6.75	3.55	1.29
current	WAS	2	Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	2.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.03	1.16
current	WAS	4	Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	3.69	1.23
current	ATL	1	Grant Holmes	Starter	5.0	10	3	3	0	6	0	0	5.40	3.99	1.40
current	ATL	2	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	2.60	1.18
current	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.00	2.22	0.74
current	ATL	4	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.37	1.05
current	ATL	5	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.00	4.23	1.25
simulation	WAS	1	Cade Cavalli	Starter	5.1	5	4	4	3	3	24	94	6.75	3.55	1.29
simulation	WAS	2	Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	2.0	1	0	0	0	0	7	20	0.00	3.03	1.16
simulation	WAS	3	Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	3	17	0.00	3.69	1.23
simulation	ATL	1	Grant Holmes	Starter	5.0	10	3	3	0	6	25	96	5.40	3.99	1.40
simulation	ATL	2	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	5	20	0.00	2.37	1.05
simulation	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	3	17	0.00	2.22	0.74
simulation	ATL	4	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	4	21	0.00	2.60	1.18
simulation	ATL	5	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	2	13	0.00	4.23	1.25

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
WAS	Cade Cavalli	Starter	5.1	4	5	3	3	24	94
WAS	Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	1	0	0	7	20
WAS	Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	0	1	3	17
ATL	Grant Holmes	Starter	5.0	3	10	0	6	25	96
ATL	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	21
ATL	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	17
ATL	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	5	20
ATL	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	2	2	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
FINAL_DECISION_POLICY	warning	1	0	One organic simulation cannot replace a disagreeing model winner.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PIPELINE_VERSION	warning	1	0	Prediction artifacts identify the stable pipeline version that created them.
PITCHER_OPPONENT_STRENGTH_BOUNDS	good	0	1	Pitcher-opponent run factors and score deltas remain inside supported bounds.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.