MLB JSON Audit Report

20260729_ARI@PIT

20260729_ARI@PIT.json • 2026-07-29

ARI 4 - PIT 6

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ryan Waldschmidt: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Tim Tawa: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Gabriel Moreno: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ketel Marte: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Max Kepler: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Nolan Arenado: SO current=1 box=2; Corbin Carroll: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; 2B: current=0, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=1, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Esmerlyn Valdez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake Mangum: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Brandon Lowe: BB current=0 box=1; Bryan Reynolds: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Endy Rodríguez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan O'Hearn: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Marcell Ozuna: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match PIT pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match PIT pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=37 matches PIT BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match ARI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match ARI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match ARI pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=39 matches ARI BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.685/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 7, PIT 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 4 - PIT 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PIT; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'opponent_team': 'PIT', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-05-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-05-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'PIT'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'confidence': 0.56, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260728_ARI@PIT.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'confidence': 0.5480091382036653, 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260727_ARI@PIT.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ARI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'PIT', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'output_opponent_team': 'ARI', 'final_score_winner': 'PIT', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 4 - 5 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'ARI 4 - 6 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4206, 'winner': 'PIT', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_ARI@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@PIT.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 187.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 187.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 4 - 6 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 4 - 6 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=PIT, final=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PIT wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 9/10 = 0.900.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match PIT pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match PIT pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=37 matches PIT BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match ARI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match ARI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match ARI pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=39 matches ARI BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.685/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 7, PIT 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 4 - PIT 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PIT; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'opponent_team': 'PIT', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-05-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-05-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'PIT'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'confidence': 0.56, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260728_ARI@PIT.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'confidence': 0.5480091382036653, 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260727_ARI@PIT.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ARI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'PIT', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'output_opponent_team': 'ARI', 'final_score_winner': 'PIT', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ARI 4 - 5 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'ARI 4 - 6 PIT', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.4206, 'winner': 'PIT', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_ARI@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@PIT.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 187.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 187.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 4 - 6 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 4 - 6 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=PIT, final=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PIT wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 4-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 9/10 = 0.900.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ryan Waldschmidt: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Tim Tawa: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Gabriel Moreno: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ketel Marte: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Max Kepler: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Nolan Arenado: SO current=1 box=2; Corbin Carroll: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; 2B: current=0, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=1, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Esmerlyn Valdez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake Mangum: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Brandon Lowe: BB current=0 box=1; Bryan Reynolds: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Endy Rodríguez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan O'Hearn: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Marcell Ozuna: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.151041030883789	4.568840026855469		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	4	7
PIT	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	6	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ARI	batting	34	9	0	0	0	3	4	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	ARI	pitching		9			0		6	6	5					8.0	6	0	0
current	PIT	batting	33	9	0	0	0	3	5	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	PIT	pitching		7			1		4	3	9					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	ARI	batting	34	7	2	0	1	4	4	3	9	0	0
simulation	ARI	pitching		9			0		6	6	5					8.0	6	39	187
simulation	PIT	batting	32	9	2	1	0	6	6	6	5	1	0
simulation	PIT	pitching		7			1		4	3	9					9.0	4	37	155

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	ARI		DH	Ryan Waldschmidt	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		C	Tim Tawa	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ARI		1B	Gabriel Moreno	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		2B	Ketel Marte	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		3B	Geraldo Perdomo	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	ARI		SS	Max Kepler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ARI		LF	Nolan Arenado	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		CF	Corbin Carroll	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		RF	Ildemaro Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	PIT		RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.333
current	PIT		CF	Jake Mangum	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		2B	Brandon Lowe	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		LF	Bryan Reynolds	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	PIT		C	Endy Rodríguez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	PIT		1B	Ryan O'Hearn	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		3B	Nick Gonzales	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		DH	Marcell Ozuna	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		SS	Jacob Gonzalez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	ARI	1	CF	Ryan Waldschmidt	5	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	ARI	2	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	ARI	3	2B	Ketel Marte	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	4	LF	Tim Tawa	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	ARI	5	C	Gabriel Moreno	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	6	3B	Nolan Arenado	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	ARI	7	RF	Corbin Carroll	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	3	0	1	0.500
simulation	ARI	8	LF	Max Kepler	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	ARI	9	1B	Ildemaro Vargas	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	PIT	1	CF	Jake Mangum	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
simulation	PIT	2	2B	Brandon Lowe	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
simulation	PIT	3	LF	Bryan Reynolds	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.000
simulation	PIT	4	RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	4	3	2	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.667
simulation	PIT	5	1B	Ryan O'Hearn	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	6	3B	Nick Gonzales	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.333
simulation	PIT	7	C	Endy Rodríguez	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	PIT	8	DH	Marcell Ozuna	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	9	SS	Jacob Gonzalez	4	2	2	1	0	0	1	2	2	0	1.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ARI	1	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.2	5	2	2	1	5	0	0	0	2.70	2.45	1.23
current	ARI	2	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	27.00	0.00	0.43
current	ARI	4	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	0.0	4	3	3	1	0	0	0	0		9.00	2.00
current	ARI	5	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
current	PIT	1	Jared Jones	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	2	8	1	0	0	4.76	3.72	1.02
current	PIT	2	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.09	0.96
current	PIT	3	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	9.00	3.53	1.18
current	PIT	4	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.21	1.38
simulation	ARI	1	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.2	5	2	2	1	5	0	26	115	2.70	2.45	1.23
simulation	ARI	2	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	29	0.00	0.00	0.00
simulation	ARI	3	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	1	1	3	0	0	4	22	27.00	0.00	0.43
simulation	ARI	4	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	0.0	4	3	3	1	0	0	5	21		9.00	2.00
simulation	PIT	1	Jared Jones	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	2	8	1	25	97	4.76	3.72	1.02
simulation	PIT	2	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	19	0.00	3.09	0.96
simulation	PIT	3	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	5	20	9.00	3.53	1.18
simulation	PIT	4	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	19	0.00	3.21	1.38

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ARI	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.2	2	5	1	5	26	115
ARI	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	3	0	4	22
ARI	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	0.0	3	4	1	0	5	21
ARI	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	29
PIT	Jared Jones	Starter	5.2	3	6	2	8	25	97
PIT	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	19
PIT	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	5	20
PIT	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	19

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260729_ATL@NYM

20260729_ATL@NYM.json • 2026-07-29

ATL 6 - NYM 2

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ozzie Albies: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4; Ronald Acuña Jr.: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Michael Harris II: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Joey Bart: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jim Jarvis: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; R: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: A.J. Ewing: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Bo Bichette: H current=1 box=2; Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Francisco Lindor: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Luis Robert Jr.: H current=1 box=0; Jared Young: H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Marcus Semien: RBI current=1 box=0; Francisco Alvarez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match NYM pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=36 matches NYM BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match ATL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match ATL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=38 matches ATL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.685/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 8, NYM 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 6 - NYM 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ATL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 6 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick guardrail flipped the lean after a blowout miss and opponent breakout'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'opponent_team': 'NYM', 'h2h_net_margin': -13, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 14, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -11, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-07-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'NYM'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 6, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260728_ATL@NYM.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.56, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 11, 'path': '20260727_ATL@NYM.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-06', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260706_NYM@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 11, 'path': '20260705_NYM@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260704_NYM@ATL.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ATL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'output_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'final_score_winner': 'ATL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 6 - 5 NYM', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'ATL 6 - 2 NYM', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -3, 'total_run_delta': -3, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.5654, 'winner': 'ATL', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_ATL@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@NYM.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 161.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 161.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 6 - 2 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 6 - 2 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ATL, final=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-2, final 6-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match NYM pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=36 matches NYM BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match ATL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match ATL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=38 matches ATL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.685/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 8, NYM 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 6 - NYM 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ATL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 6 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick guardrail flipped the lean after a blowout miss and opponent breakout'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'opponent_team': 'NYM', 'h2h_net_margin': -13, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 14, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -11, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-07-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'NYM'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 6, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260728_ATL@NYM.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.56, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 11, 'path': '20260727_ATL@NYM.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-06', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260706_NYM@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 11, 'path': '20260705_NYM@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260704_NYM@ATL.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ATL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'output_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'final_score_winner': 'ATL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 6 - 5 NYM', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'ATL 6 - 2 NYM', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -3, 'total_run_delta': -3, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.5654, 'winner': 'ATL', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_ATL@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@NYM.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 161.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 161.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 6 - 2 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 6 - 2 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ATL, final=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-2, final 6-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ozzie Albies: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4; Ronald Acuña Jr.: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Michael Harris II: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Joey Bart: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jim Jarvis: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; R: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: A.J. Ewing: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Bo Bichette: H current=1 box=2; Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Francisco Lindor: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Luis Robert Jr.: H current=1 box=0; Jared Young: H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Marcus Semien: RBI current=1 box=0; Francisco Alvarez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	6.288172245025635	3.4652106761932373		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	7	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	0	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	6	8
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ATL	batting	34	9	0	0	0	6	5	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		8			0		2	1	10					9.0	2	0	0
current	NYM	batting	34	9	0	0	0	2	0	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	NYM	pitching		8			1		6	1	8					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	ATL	batting	35	8	2	0	1	6	6	1	8	0	0
simulation	ATL	pitching		8			0		2	1	10					9.0	2	38	161
simulation	NYM	batting	35	8	0	0	0	2	2	1	10	0	2
simulation	NYM	pitching		8			1		6	1	8					9.0	6	36	146

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		DH	Drake Baldwin	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		CF	Michael Harris II	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		LF	Mauricio Dubón	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	ATL		C	Joey Bart	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		SS	Jim Jarvis	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		LF	A.J. Ewing	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		3B	Bo Bichette	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		RF	Carson Benge	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		SS	Francisco Lindor	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		CF	Luis Robert Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		1B	Jared Young	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		DH	Jorge Polanco	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		2B	Marcus Semien	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		C	Francisco Alvarez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	ATL	1	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	2	DH	Drake Baldwin	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	3	1B	Matt Olson	4	3	2	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	ATL	4	2B	Ozzie Albies	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	5	CF	Michael Harris II	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	6	LF	Mauricio Dubón	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	7	3B	Austin Riley	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	8	C	Joey Bart	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	ATL	9	SS	Jim Jarvis	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	NYM	1	LF	A.J. Ewing	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	NYM	2	SS	Francisco Lindor	5	5	3	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.600
simulation	NYM	3	3B	Bo Bichette	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	NYM	4	RF	Carson Benge	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.000
simulation	NYM	5	CF	Luis Robert Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	6	DH	Jorge Polanco	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	7	1B	Jared Young	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	NYM	8	2B	Marcus Semien	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	9	C	Francisco Alvarez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ATL	1	Chris Sale	Starter	6.0	5	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0.00	2.19	1.05
current	ATL	2	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.70	1.18
current	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.27	0.76
current	ATL	4	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	18.00	2.43	1.08
current	NYM	1	Sean Manaea	Starter	5.2	7	6	6	0	6	1	0	0	9.53	4.52	1.35
current	NYM	2	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.09	1.14
current	NYM	3	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.89	1.50
current	NYM	4	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.93	0.83
current	NYM	5	Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.66	1.03
simulation	ATL	1	Chris Sale	Starter	6.0	5	0	0	0	7	0	24	96	0.00	2.19	1.05
simulation	ATL	2	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	0	7	26	18.00	2.43	1.08
simulation	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	18	0.00	2.27	0.76
simulation	ATL	4	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	21	0.00	2.70	1.18
simulation	NYM	1	Sean Manaea	Starter	5.2	7	6	6	0	6	1	24	92	9.53	4.52	1.35
simulation	NYM	2	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	18	0.00	3.89	1.50
simulation	NYM	3	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	14	0.00	1.93	0.83
simulation	NYM	4	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	6	0.00	2.09	1.14
simulation	NYM	5	Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	16	0.00	2.66	1.03

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ATL	Chris Sale	Starter	6.0	0	5	0	7	24	96
ATL	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	21
ATL	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	4	18
ATL	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	3	1	0	7	26
NYM	Sean Manaea	Starter	5.2	6	7	0	6	24	92
NYM	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	6
NYM	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	18
NYM	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	14
NYM	Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260729_ATL@NYM_2

20260729_ATL@NYM_2.json • 2026-07-29

ATL 7 - NYM 2

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=6, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Matt Olson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Ronald Acuña Jr.: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Austin Riley: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Eli White: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; R: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: A.J. Ewing: H current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Francisco Lindor: H current=1 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jared Young: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jorge Polanco: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Tyrone Taylor: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brett Baty: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match NYM pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=40 matches NYM BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match ATL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=36 matches ATL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.602/0.810.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 10, NYM 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 7 - NYM 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ATL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 6 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick guardrail flipped the lean after a blowout miss and opponent breakout'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'opponent_team': 'NYM', 'h2h_net_margin': -13, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 14, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -11, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-07-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'NYM'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 6, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260728_ATL@NYM.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.56, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 11, 'path': '20260727_ATL@NYM.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-06', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260706_NYM@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 11, 'path': '20260705_NYM@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260704_NYM@ATL.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ATL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'output_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'final_score_winner': 'ATL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 4 NYM', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'ATL 7 - 2 NYM', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.5654, 'winner': 'ATL', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_ATL@NYM_2.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@NYM.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 7 - 2 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 7 - 2 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 7-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ATL, final=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 7-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 7-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-2, final 7-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 7-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match NYM pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=40 matches NYM BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match ATL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=36 matches ATL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.602/0.810.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 10, NYM 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 7 - NYM 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ATL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 6 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick guardrail flipped the lean after a blowout miss and opponent breakout'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'opponent_team': 'NYM', 'h2h_net_margin': -13, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 14, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -11, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-07-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'NYM'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 6, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260728_ATL@NYM.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.56, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 11, 'path': '20260727_ATL@NYM.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-06', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260706_NYM@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 11, 'path': '20260705_NYM@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260704_NYM@ATL.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ATL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'output_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'final_score_winner': 'ATL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 5 - 4 NYM', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'ATL 7 - 2 NYM', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 5, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.5654, 'winner': 'ATL', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_ATL@NYM_2.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@NYM.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 7 - 2 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 7 - 2 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 7-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ATL, final=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 7-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 7-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-2, final 7-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 7-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=6, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Matt Olson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Ronald Acuña Jr.: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Austin Riley: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Eli White: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; R: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: A.J. Ewing: H current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Francisco Lindor: H current=1 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jared Young: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jorge Polanco: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Tyrone Taylor: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brett Baty: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.544366359710693	3.600080966949463		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	3	0	7	10
NYM	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ATL	batting	34	9	0	0	0	6	5	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		7			0		2	2	12					9.0	2	0	0
current	NYM	batting	32	9	0	0	0	2	0	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	NYM	pitching		10			3		7	3	8					9.0	7	0	0
simulation	ATL	batting	37	10	1	0	3	7	7	3	8	0	0
simulation	ATL	pitching		7			0		2	2	12					9.0	2	36	164
simulation	NYM	batting	34	7	0	0	0	2	2	2	12	0	0
simulation	NYM	pitching		10			3		7	3	8					9.0	7	40	169

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	ATL		DH	Drake Baldwin	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		CF	Michael Harris II	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		SS	Mauricio Dubón	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		LF	Eli White	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ATL		C	Joey Bart	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYM		CF	A.J. Ewing	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYM		3B	Bo Bichette	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYM		SS	Francisco Lindor	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	NYM		RF	Carson Benge	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYM		1B	Jared Young	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYM		DH	Jorge Polanco	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYM		LF	Tyrone Taylor	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	NYM		2B	Brett Baty	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYM		C	Francisco Alvarez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	ATL	1	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	2	DH	Drake Baldwin	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	ATL	3	1B	Matt Olson	5	4	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	0.500
simulation	ATL	4	2B	Ozzie Albies	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	ATL	5	CF	Michael Harris II	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	ATL	6	SS	Mauricio Dubón	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	ATL	7	3B	Austin Riley	4	3	1	0	1	1	3	1	1	0.333
simulation	ATL	8	LF	Eli White	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	ATL	9	C	Joey Bart	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	NYM	1	CF	A.J. Ewing	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	NYM	2	SS	Francisco Lindor	4	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.750
simulation	NYM	3	3B	Bo Bichette	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.500
simulation	NYM	4	RF	Carson Benge	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	NYM	5	1B	Jared Young	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	6	DH	Jorge Polanco	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	NYM	7	LF	Tyrone Taylor	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	NYM	8	2B	Brett Baty	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	NYM	9	C	Francisco Alvarez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ATL	1	Chris Sale	Starter	6.0	5	2	2	2	9	0	0	0	3.00	2.19	1.05
current	ATL	2	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.70	1.18
current	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.27	0.76
current	ATL	4	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.43	1.08
current	ATL	6	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		4.34	1.29
current	NYM	1	Christian Scott	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	2	6	1	0	0	4.76	3.13	1.26
current	NYM	2	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.09	1.14
current	NYM	3	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	6.75	3.89	1.50
current	NYM	4	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	3	0	1	1	0	0	27.00	1.93	0.83
simulation	ATL	1	Chris Sale	Starter	6.0	5	2	2	2	9	0	25	99	3.00	2.19	1.05
simulation	ATL	2	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	2.43	1.08
simulation	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	18	0.00	2.27	0.76
simulation	ATL	4	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	19	0.00	2.70	1.18
simulation	ATL	5	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12		4.34	1.29
simulation	NYM	1	Christian Scott	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	2	6	1	25	109	4.76	3.13	1.26
simulation	NYM	2	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	1	1	1	6	25	6.75	3.89	1.50
simulation	NYM	3	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	3	0	1	1	6	22	27.00	1.93	0.83
simulation	NYM	4	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.09	1.14

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ATL	Chris Sale	Starter	6.0	2	5	2	9	25	99
ATL	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	19
ATL	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	18
ATL	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
ATL	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
NYM	Christian Scott	Starter	5.2	3	6	2	6	25	109
NYM	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
NYM	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	1	6	25
NYM	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	0	1	6	22

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260729_BAL@DET

20260729_BAL@DET.json • 2026-07-29

BAL 0 - DET 4

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; RBI: current=1, sim=0; R: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Taylor Ward: H current=1 box=2, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=5 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Tyler O'Neill: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Coby Mayo: AB current=3 box=4; Jeremiah Jackson: SO current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=28; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Gleyber Torres: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=2; Javier Báez: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Matt Vierling: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Spencer Torkelson: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match DET pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match DET pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match DET pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=33 matches DET BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match BAL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=34 matches BAL BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 4 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 4.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.685/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 5, DET 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 0 - DET 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for DET; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'DET', 'opponent_team': 'BAL', 'h2h_net_margin': 14, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 14, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 14, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'BAL'}, {'date': '2026-05-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'DET'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 14, 'path': '20260728_BAL@DET.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260727_BAL@DET.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'DET', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'final_score_winner': 'DET', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'BAL 1 - 3 DET', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 0, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BAL 0 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5787, 'winner': 'DET', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_BAL@DET.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@DET.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 134.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 134.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 0 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 0 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 4-0.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=DET, final=DET.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: DET wins 4-0.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 0-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 0-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 0-4, final 0-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 4.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: DET wins 4-0.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match DET pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match DET pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match DET pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=33 matches DET BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match BAL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=34 matches BAL BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 4 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 4.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.685/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 5, DET 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 0 - DET 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for DET; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'DET', 'opponent_team': 'BAL', 'h2h_net_margin': 14, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 14, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 14, 'winner': 'DET'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'BAL'}, {'date': '2026-05-24', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'DET'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 14, 'path': '20260728_BAL@DET.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260727_BAL@DET.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'DET', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'final_score_winner': 'DET', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'DET', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'BAL 1 - 3 DET', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 0, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BAL 0 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'DET'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5787, 'winner': 'DET', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_BAL@DET.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@DET.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 134.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 134.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 0 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 0 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 4-0.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=DET, final=DET.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: DET wins 4-0.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 0-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 0-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 0-4, final 0-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 4.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: DET wins 4-0.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=5; RBI: current=1, sim=0; R: current=3, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Taylor Ward: H current=1 box=2, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=5 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Tyler O'Neill: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Coby Mayo: AB current=3 box=4; Jeremiah Jackson: SO current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=28; H: current=8, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kevin McGonigle: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Gleyber Torres: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=2; Javier Báez: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Matt Vierling: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Spencer Torkelson: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.54852557182312	4.520501136779785		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	2	3	0.560	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	1	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	1	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	1	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	0	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
DET	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	BAL	batting	32	8	0	0	1	3	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	BAL	pitching		4				4	6	8					8.0	4	0	0
current	DET	batting	31	8	0	0	4	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	DET	pitching		5				0	1	7					9.0	0	0	0
simulation	BAL	batting	32	5	0	0	0	0	1	7	0	0
simulation	BAL	pitching		4				4	6	8					8.0	4	34	158
simulation	DET	batting	28	4	1	0	4	4	6	8	0	0
simulation	DET	pitching		5				0	1	7					9.0	0	33	134

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	BAL		LF	Taylor Ward	0	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	BAL		SS	Gunnar Henderson	0	5	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	BAL		RF	Tyler O'Neill	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		1B	Pete Alonso	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	BAL		DH	Coby Mayo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		2B	Jeremiah Jackson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	BAL		CF	Leody Taveras	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	BAL		C	Yohel Pozo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	DET		3B	Kevin McGonigle	0	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	DET		2B	Hao-Yu Lee	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	DET		C	Dillon Dingler	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	DET		DH	Gleyber Torres	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	DET		LF	Riley Greene	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	DET		SS	Javier Báez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	DET		CF	Matt Vierling	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	DET		1B	Spencer Torkelson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	DET		RF	Ben Malgeri	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	BAL	1	LF	Taylor Ward	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	BAL	2	1B	Pete Alonso	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	3	SS	Gunnar Henderson	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	4	RF	Tyler O'Neill	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	BAL	5	DH	Coby Mayo	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	6	CF	Leody Taveras	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	BAL	7	2B	Jeremiah Jackson	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	BAL	8	3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	BAL	9	C	Yohel Pozo	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	DET	1	DH	Gleyber Torres	4	4	1	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	DET	2	3B	Kevin McGonigle	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	DET	3	2B	Hao-Yu Lee	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	DET	4	C	Dillon Dingler	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	DET	5	LF	Riley Greene	4	2	1	1	1	3	2	1	0.500
simulation	DET	6	1B	Spencer Torkelson	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	DET	7	SS	Javier Báez	4	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	DET	8	CF	Matt Vierling	3	3	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	DET	9	RF	Ben Malgeri	3	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	BAL	1	Trevor Rogers	Starter	6.0	4	4	4	4	6	0	0	6.00	4.17	1.27
current	BAL	2	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.93	0.87
current	BAL	3	Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0.00	2.82	1.00
current	BAL	4	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0		3.52	1.37
current	BAL	6	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		2.02	0.87
current	DET	1	Tarik Skubal	Starter	6.0	4	0	0	1	7	0	0	0.00	2.70	0.92
current	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.25	1.16
current	DET	3	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.15	1.37
current	DET	4	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.04	1.33
simulation	BAL	1	Trevor Rogers	Starter	6.0	4	4	4	4	6	26	104	6.00	4.17	1.27
simulation	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	1	13		3.52	1.37
simulation	BAL	3	Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	4	15	0.00	2.82	1.00
simulation	BAL	4	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	16	0.00	2.93	0.87
simulation	BAL	5	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10		2.02	0.87
simulation	DET	1	Tarik Skubal	Starter	6.0	4	0	0	1	7	23	92	0.00	2.70	0.92
simulation	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	4	14	0.00	3.25	1.16
simulation	DET	3	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.15	1.37
simulation	DET	4	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	15	0.00	3.04	1.33

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
BAL	Trevor Rogers	Starter	6.0	4	4	4	6	26	104
BAL	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
BAL	Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	15
BAL	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	1	0	1	13
BAL	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
DET	Tarik Skubal	Starter	6.0	0	4	1	7	23	92
DET	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	14
DET	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
DET	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	15

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260729_BOS@OAK

20260729_BOS@OAK.json • 2026-07-29

BOS 4 - OAK 3

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ceddanne Rafaela: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Wilyer Abreu: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Willson Contreras: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jahmai Jones: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Romy Gonzalez: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Caleb Durbin: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Andruw Monasterio: BB current=0 box=1; Nick Sogard: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy White: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Tyler Soderstrom: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jacob Wilson: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Nick Kurtz: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Colby Thomas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2; Jonah Heim: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Henry Bolte: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Lawrence Butler: AB current=3 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match OAK pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match OAK pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=42 matches OAK BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match BOS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=35 matches BOS BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.481/0.666.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 9, OAK 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 4 - OAK 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'BOS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260728_BOS@OAK.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260727_BOS@OAK.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BOS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'BOS 5 - 3 OAK', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 3 OAK', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.8183, 'winner': 'BOS', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_BOS@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@OAK.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 143.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 189.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 143.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 189.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 4 - 3 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 4 - 3 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=BOS, final=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match OAK pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match OAK pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=42 matches OAK BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match BOS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=35 matches BOS BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.481/0.666.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 9, OAK 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 4 - OAK 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'BOS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260728_BOS@OAK.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260727_BOS@OAK.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BOS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'BOS 5 - 3 OAK', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'BOS 4 - 3 OAK', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.8183, 'winner': 'BOS', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_BOS@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@OAK.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 143.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 189.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 143.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 189.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 4 - 3 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 4 - 3 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=BOS, final=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ceddanne Rafaela: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Wilyer Abreu: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Willson Contreras: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jahmai Jones: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Romy Gonzalez: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Caleb Durbin: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Andruw Monasterio: BB current=0 box=1; Nick Sogard: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy White: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Tyler Soderstrom: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jacob Wilson: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Nick Kurtz: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Colby Thomas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2; Jonah Heim: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Henry Bolte: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Lawrence Butler: AB current=3 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.495410442352295	4.38253116607666		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	3	0.580	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	9
OAK	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	3	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	BOS	batting	31	9	0	0	0	3	3	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	BOS	pitching		7			1		3	1	7					9.0	3	0	0
current	OAK	batting	33	9	0	0	0	2	2	1	7	0	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		9			1		4	5	9					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	BOS	batting	36	9	2	0	1	4	4	5	9	0	1
simulation	BOS	pitching		7			1		3	1	7					9.0	3	35	143
simulation	OAK	batting	34	7	1	1	1	3	3	1	7	0	0
simulation	OAK	pitching		9			1		4	5	9					9.0	4	42	189

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	BOS		CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		RF	Wilyer Abreu	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		1B	Willson Contreras	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		LF	Jahmai Jones	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		DH	Romy Gonzalez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		3B	Caleb Durbin	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		SS	Andruw Monasterio	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		2B	Nick Sogard	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		C	Connor Wong	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		3B	Tommy White	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	OAK		LF	Tyler Soderstrom	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		SS	Jacob Wilson	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
current	OAK		1B	Nick Kurtz	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		DH	Colby Thomas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		C	Jonah Heim	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		CF	Henry Bolte	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		RF	Lawrence Butler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		2B	Alika Williams	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	BOS	1	LF	Jahmai Jones	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	2	CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	5	4	2	1	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	BOS	3	RF	Wilyer Abreu	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	BOS	4	1B	Willson Contreras	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	BOS	5	3B	Caleb Durbin	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	6	DH	Romy Gonzalez	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	BOS	7	SS	Andruw Monasterio	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	BOS	8	2B	Nick Sogard	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	9	C	Connor Wong	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	OAK	1	SS	Jacob Wilson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	2	1B	Nick Kurtz	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	OAK	3	3B	Tommy White	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	OAK	4	LF	Tyler Soderstrom	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	5	C	Jonah Heim	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	6	DH	Colby Thomas	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	OAK	7	CF	Henry Bolte	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	8	RF	Lawrence Butler	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	9	2B	Alika Williams	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	BOS	1	Patrick Sandoval	Starter	4.2	5	3	3	1	6	1	0	0	5.79	3.21	1.64
current	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.04	1.12
current	BOS	3	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.08	0.87
current	BOS	4	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.78	1.37
current	OAK	1	Jacob Lopez	Starter	4.0	7	4	4	2	5	1	0	0	9.00	6.12	1.67
current	OAK	2	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.33	1.38
current	OAK	3	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	5.23	1.26
current	OAK	4	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.38	1.48
current	OAK	5	José Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.55	1.46
simulation	BOS	1	Patrick Sandoval	Starter	4.2	5	3	3	1	6	1	20	82	5.79	3.21	1.64
simulation	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	1.04	1.12
simulation	BOS	3	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	20	0.00	2.08	0.87
simulation	BOS	4	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	6	24	0.00	4.78	1.37
simulation	OAK	1	Jacob Lopez	Starter	4.0	7	4	4	2	5	1	21	91	9.00	6.12	1.67
simulation	OAK	2	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	1	2	0	7	37	0.00	3.38	1.48
simulation	OAK	3	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	17	0.00	5.23	1.26
simulation	OAK	4	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	24	0.00	3.33	1.38
simulation	OAK	5	José Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	5	20	0.00	4.55	1.46

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
BOS	Patrick Sandoval	Starter	4.2	3	5	1	6	20	82
BOS	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17
BOS	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	0	5	20
BOS	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	0	1	6	24
OAK	Jacob Lopez	Starter	4.0	4	7	2	5	21	91
OAK	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	5	24
OAK	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	17
OAK	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	1	2	7	37
OAK	José Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	5	20

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260729_CHC@STL

20260729_CHC@STL.json • 2026-07-29

CHC 5 - STL 4

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=8, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=15).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alex Bregman: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Seiya Suzuki: SO current=1 box=2; Michael Busch: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Michael Conforto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Dansby Swanson: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Iván Herrera: AB current=4 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Alec Burleson: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; JJ Wetherholt: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Masyn Winn: H current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; José Fermín: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Blaze Jordan: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match STL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match STL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match STL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 15.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=37 matches STL BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match CHC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match CHC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match CHC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=38 matches CHC BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.460.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.457/0.638.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 7, STL 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 5 - STL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.54, reasons=a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': 14, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.54, 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 8, 'path': '20260728_CHC@STL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260727_CHC@STL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.5163941212711489, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260705_STL@CHC.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260704_STL@CHC.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-03', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 16, 'path': '20260703_STL@CHC.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'STL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'STL', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CHC 5 - 3 STL', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 5 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.0561, 'winner': 'CHC', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_CHC@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@STL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 177.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 177.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 5 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 5 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CHC, final=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.540.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CHC wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match STL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match STL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match STL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 15.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=37 matches STL BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match CHC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match CHC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match CHC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=38 matches CHC BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.460.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.457/0.638.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 7, STL 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 5 - STL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.54, reasons=a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': 14, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.54, 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 8, 'path': '20260728_CHC@STL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260727_CHC@STL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.5163941212711489, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260705_STL@CHC.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260704_STL@CHC.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-03', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 16, 'path': '20260703_STL@CHC.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'STL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'output_opponent_team': 'STL', 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'CHC 5 - 3 STL', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CHC 5 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.0561, 'winner': 'CHC', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_CHC@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@STL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 177.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 177.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 5 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 5 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CHC, final=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.540.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CHC wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=8, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=15).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alex Bregman: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Seiya Suzuki: SO current=1 box=2; Michael Busch: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Michael Conforto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Dansby Swanson: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Iván Herrera: AB current=4 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Alec Burleson: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; JJ Wetherholt: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Masyn Winn: H current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; José Fermín: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Blaze Jordan: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.455601215362549	4.522842884063721		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	3	0.540	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	1	5	7
STL	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	4	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHC	batting	33	9	0	0	0	5	8	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	CHC	pitching		9			2		4	2	10					9.0	4	0	0
current	STL	batting	33	9	0	0	0	2	4	1	7	0	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		7			1		5	3	15					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	CHC	batting	34	7	1	0	1	5	5	3	15	0	0
simulation	CHC	pitching		9			2		4	2	10					9.0	4	38	170
simulation	STL	batting	36	9	2	0	2	4	4	2	10	0	0
simulation	STL	pitching		7			1		5	3	15					9.0	5	37	177

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	CHC		3B	Alex Bregman	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CHC		RF	Seiya Suzuki	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHC		1B	Michael Busch	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		LF	Ian Happ	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		DH	Michael Conforto	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHC		2B	Pedro Ramirez	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
current	CHC		SS	Dansby Swanson	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHC		C	Miguel Amaya	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	STL		DH	Iván Herrera	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	STL		1B	Alec Burleson	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	STL		RF	Jordan Walker	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	STL		2B	JJ Wetherholt	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.200
current	STL		SS	Masyn Winn	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	STL		LF	José Fermín	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	STL		3B	Blaze Jordan	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
current	STL		CF	Nathan Church	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	STL		C	Pedro Pagés	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	CHC	1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	5	5	2	1	0	1	1	0	2	0.400
simulation	CHC	2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	CHC	3	1B	Michael Busch	4	3	2	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.667
simulation	CHC	4	3B	Alex Bregman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CHC	5	LF	Ian Happ	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	CHC	6	DH	Michael Conforto	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	CHC	7	2B	Pedro Ramirez	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHC	8	SS	Dansby Swanson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	9	C	Miguel Amaya	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	STL	1	2B	JJ Wetherholt	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	STL	2	RF	Jordan Walker	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	STL	3	DH	Iván Herrera	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	STL	4	1B	Alec Burleson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	STL	5	SS	Masyn Winn	4	4	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.750
simulation	STL	6	LF	José Fermín	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0.250
simulation	STL	7	3B	Blaze Jordan	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	STL	8	CF	Nathan Church	4	4	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	STL	9	C	Pedro Pagés	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHC	1	Matthew Boyd	Starter	5.2	5	3	3	2	6	1	0	0	4.76	3.81	1.24
current	CHC	2	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.78	1.30
current	CHC	3	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.23	0.99
current	CHC	4	Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.77	1.16
current	CHC	5	Ryan Rolison	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	13.50	2.66	1.30
current	STL	1	Dustin May	Starter	5.0	1	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	0.00	4.59	1.32
current	STL	2	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.50	1.10
current	STL	3	Gordon Graceffo	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	3.19	1.12
current	STL	4	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	9.00	3.67	1.22
current	STL	5	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	3	2	2	0	0	0	27.00	4.24	1.39
simulation	CHC	1	Matthew Boyd	Starter	5.2	5	3	3	2	6	1	24	106	4.76	3.81	1.24
simulation	CHC	2	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	20	0.00	2.78	1.30
simulation	CHC	3	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.23	0.99
simulation	CHC	4	Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	3.77	1.16
simulation	CHC	5	Ryan Rolison	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	1	4	18	13.50	2.66	1.30
simulation	STL	1	Dustin May	Starter	5.0	1	0	0	0	9	0	16	85	0.00	4.59	1.32
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	0	6	23	9.00	3.67	1.22
simulation	STL	3	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	3.50	1.10
simulation	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	3	2	2	0	8	30	27.00	4.24	1.39
simulation	STL	5	Gordon Graceffo	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	4	24	9.00	3.19	1.12

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHC	Matthew Boyd	Starter	5.2	3	5	2	6	24	106
CHC	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	20
CHC	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
CHC	Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	0	0	3	13
CHC	Ryan Rolison	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	2	0	1	4	18
STL	Dustin May	Starter	5.0	0	1	0	9	16	85
STL	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	15
STL	Gordon Graceffo	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	24
STL	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	1	2	6	23
STL	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	2	2	8	30

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260729_CLE@CIN

20260729_CLE@CIN.json • 2026-07-29

CLE 3 - CIN 4

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=29; H: current=9, sim=5; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=2, sim=4; R: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dane Myers: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Eugenio Suárez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Sal Stewart: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=5 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Tyler Stephenson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Ivan Johnson: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Noelvi Marte: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Edwin Arroyo: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Chase DeLauter: BB current=0 box=1; José Ramírez: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; Brayan Rocchio: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Angel Martínez: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Travis Bazzana: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Manzardo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Patrick Bailey: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match CLE pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match CLE pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match CLE pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=32 matches CLE BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match CIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match CIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=41 matches CIN BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.457/0.638.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 9, CIN 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 3 - CIN 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CIN; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-05-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 7, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'CIN', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260728_CLE@CIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'CIN', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260727_CLE@CIN.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.4882, 'winner': 'CIN', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_CLE@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@CIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 200.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 200.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 3 - 4 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 3 - 4 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CIN wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CIN, final=CIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CIN wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CIN wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CIN wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match CLE pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match CLE pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match CLE pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=32 matches CLE BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match CIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match CIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=41 matches CIN BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.457/0.638.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 9, CIN 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 3 - CIN 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CIN; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-05-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 7, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'CIN', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260728_CLE@CIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'CIN', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260727_CLE@CIN.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.4882, 'winner': 'CIN', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_CLE@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@CIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 137.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 200.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 200.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 137.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 3 - 4 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 3 - 4 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CIN wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CIN, final=CIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CIN wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CIN wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CIN wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=29; H: current=9, sim=5; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=2, sim=4; R: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dane Myers: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Eugenio Suárez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Sal Stewart: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=5 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Tyler Stephenson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Ivan Johnson: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Noelvi Marte: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Edwin Arroyo: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Chase DeLauter: BB current=0 box=1; José Ramírez: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; Brayan Rocchio: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Angel Martínez: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Travis Bazzana: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Manzardo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Patrick Bailey: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	7.866237640380859	5.708877086639404		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	9	6		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	3	9
CIN	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CLE	batting	33	9	0	0	0	1	1	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		5			3		4	3	4					8.0	4	0	0
current	CIN	batting	31	9	0	0	0	2	2	1	10	0	0	0	0
current	CIN	pitching		9			1		3	5	12					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	CLE	batting	36	9	1	0	1	3	3	5	12	0	0
simulation	CLE	pitching		5			3		4	3	4					8.0	4	32	137
simulation	CIN	batting	29	5	0	0	3	4	4	3	4	0	0
simulation	CIN	pitching		9			1		3	5	12					9.0	3	41	200

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	CLE		DH	Chase DeLauter	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		3B	José Ramírez	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	CLE		LF	Steven Kwan	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		RF	Angel Martínez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		2B	Travis Bazzana	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	CLE		1B	Kyle Manzardo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		C	Patrick Bailey	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		CF	Petey Halpin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CIN		CF	Dane Myers	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CIN		DH	Eugenio Suárez	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0.250
current	CIN		1B	Sal Stewart	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CIN		SS	Elly De La Cruz	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.200
current	CIN		C	Tyler Stephenson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CIN		LF	Ivan Johnson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CIN		RF	Noelvi Marte	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CIN		2B	Edwin Arroyo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CIN		3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	CLE	1	LF	Steven Kwan	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	2	3B	José Ramírez	5	4	1	0	1	1	2	1	2	0.250
simulation	CLE	3	DH	Chase DeLauter	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	CLE	4	SS	Brayan Rocchio	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	CLE	5	2B	Travis Bazzana	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.200
simulation	CLE	6	RF	Angel Martínez	4	4	3	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.750
simulation	CLE	7	1B	Kyle Manzardo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	CLE	8	C	Patrick Bailey	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	9	CF	Petey Halpin	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	CIN	1	SS	Elly De La Cruz	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	CIN	2	1B	Sal Stewart	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	3	CF	Dane Myers	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	CIN	4	DH	Eugenio Suárez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	5	C	Tyler Stephenson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CIN	6	RF	Noelvi Marte	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	7	LF	Ivan Johnson	3	3	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	CIN	8	2B	Edwin Arroyo	3	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	CIN	9	3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CLE	1	Joey Cantillo	Starter	5.0	4	3	3	3	2	2	0	0	5.40	4.02	1.46
current	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.57	1.06
current	CLE	3	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.54	0.78
current	CLE	4	Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	13.50	2.60	1.24
current	CIN	1	Brady Singer	Starter	5.2	5	3	3	2	6	1	0	0	4.76	4.53	1.38
current	CIN	2	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.61	1.30
current	CIN	3	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	5.06	1.22
current	CIN	4	Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.16	0.93
current	CIN	5	Caleb Ferguson	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.57	1.54
simulation	CLE	1	Joey Cantillo	Starter	5.0	4	3	3	3	2	2	22	93	5.40	4.02	1.46
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.57	1.06
simulation	CLE	3	Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	1	3	14	13.50	2.60	1.24
simulation	CLE	4	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	1.54	0.78
simulation	CIN	1	Brady Singer	Starter	5.2	5	3	3	2	6	1	24	107	4.76	4.53	1.38
simulation	CIN	2	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	0	5	29	0.00	5.06	1.22
simulation	CIN	3	Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	17	0.00	2.16	0.93
simulation	CIN	4	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	5	31	0.00	2.61	1.30
simulation	CIN	5	Caleb Ferguson	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	3	16	0.00	3.57	1.54

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CLE	Joey Cantillo	Starter	5.0	3	4	3	2	22	93
CLE	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
CLE	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
CLE	Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	0	0	3	14
CIN	Brady Singer	Starter	5.2	3	5	2	6	24	107
CIN	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	1	5	31
CIN	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	2	5	29
CIN	Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	17
CIN	Caleb Ferguson	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	1	1	1	3	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260729_COL@SD

20260729_COL@SD.json • 2026-07-29

COL 3 - SD 4

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=6, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Hunter Goodman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Cole Carrigg: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Willi Castro: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Troy Johnston: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=6; HR: current=0, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ty France: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Rengifo: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Gavin Sheets: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match SD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match SD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=38 matches SD BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match COL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match COL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match COL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=34 matches COL BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.480/0.666.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: COL 8, SD 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: COL 3 - SD 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'COL', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-23', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-04-23', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-04-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'confidence': 0.57, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260728_COL@SD.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'COL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'COL 3 - 6 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'COL 3 - 4 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.9911, 'winner': 'SD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_COL@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@SD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 3 - 4 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 3 - 4 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=SD, final=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SD wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match SD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match SD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=38 matches SD BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match COL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match COL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match COL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=34 matches COL BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.480/0.666.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: COL 8, SD 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: COL 3 - SD 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'COL', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-23', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-04-23', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-04-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'confidence': 0.57, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260728_COL@SD.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'COL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'COL', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'COL 3 - 6 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'COL 3 - 4 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 3, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.9911, 'winner': 'SD', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_COL@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@SD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 3 - 4 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 3 - 4 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=SD, final=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SD wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=6, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: TJ Rumfield: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Hunter Goodman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Jake McCarthy: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Cole Carrigg: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Willi Castro: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Troy Johnston: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=6; HR: current=0, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ty France: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Rengifo: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Gavin Sheets: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.790078163146973	2.706150531768799		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	3		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	6	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	6		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	8
SD	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	0	4	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	COL	batting	32	9	0	0	0	4	6	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	COL	pitching		6			3		4	4	4					8.0	4	0	0
current	SD	batting	32	9	0	0	0	4	4	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	SD	pitching		8			0		3	2	10					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	COL	batting	35	8	2	0	0	3	3	2	10	0	1
simulation	COL	pitching		6			3		4	4	4					8.0	4	34	154
simulation	SD	batting	30	6	0	0	3	4	4	4	4	0	0
simulation	SD	pitching		8			0		3	2	10					9.0	3	38	155

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	COL		1B	TJ Rumfield	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		C	Hunter Goodman	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		LF	Jake McCarthy	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		DH	Mickey Moniak	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		3B	Kyle Karros	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	COL		CF	Cole Carrigg	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	COL		2B	Willi Castro	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		RF	Troy Johnston	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	COL		SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		3B	Manny Machado	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		2B	Jake Cronenworth	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	SD		1B	Ty France	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		CF	Jackson Merrill	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		LF	Luis Rengifo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	SD		DH	Gavin Sheets	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		SS	Xander Bogaerts	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		C	Freddy Fermin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	COL	1	LF	Jake McCarthy	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	COL	2	DH	Mickey Moniak	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	COL	3	C	Hunter Goodman	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	0.667
simulation	COL	4	1B	TJ Rumfield	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	COL	5	3B	Kyle Karros	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	COL	6	CF	Cole Carrigg	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	COL	7	2B	Willi Castro	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	COL	8	RF	Troy Johnston	4	4	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.750
simulation	COL	9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	4	4	1	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SD	1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	2	2B	Jake Cronenworth	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	SD	3	3B	Manny Machado	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	SD	4	1B	Ty France	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	SD	5	CF	Jackson Merrill	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SD	6	LF	Luis Rengifo	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SD	7	DH	Gavin Sheets	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	8	SS	Xander Bogaerts	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	SD	9	C	Freddy Fermin	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	COL	1	Gabriel Hughes	Starter	5.1	2	1	1	3	2	1	0	0	1.69	2.79	1.14
current	COL	2	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	2.1	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.66	1.30
current	COL	5	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.1	2	3	3	1	1	2	0	0	81.00	5.51	1.58
current	SD	1	Kyle Hart	Starter	4.2	2	2	2	1	4	0	0	0	3.86	5.21	1.11
current	SD	2	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.14	1.12
current	SD	3	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.36	1.16
current	SD	4	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	0.81	0.81
current	SD	5	Wandy Peralta	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	9.00	3.04	1.33
simulation	COL	1	Gabriel Hughes	Starter	5.1	2	1	1	3	2	1	21	97	1.69	2.79	1.14
simulation	COL	2	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	2.1	2	0	0	0	1	0	9	39	0.00	3.66	1.30
simulation	COL	3	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.1	2	3	3	1	1	2	4	18	81.00	5.51	1.58
simulation	SD	1	Kyle Hart	Starter	4.2	2	2	2	1	4	0	17	74	3.86	5.21	1.11
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	0.81	0.81
simulation	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	6	21	0.00	3.14	1.12
simulation	SD	4	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	2.36	1.16
simulation	SD	5	Wandy Peralta	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	1	2	0	7	26	9.00	3.04	1.33

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
COL	Gabriel Hughes	Starter	5.1	1	2	3	2	21	97
COL	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	2	0	1	9	39
COL	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.1	3	2	1	1	4	18
SD	Kyle Hart	Starter	4.2	2	2	1	4	17	74
SD	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	0	6	21
SD	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	17
SD	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	17
SD	Wandy Peralta	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	3	1	2	7	26

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260729_HOU@LAA

20260729_HOU@LAA.json • 2026-07-29

HOU 6 - LAA 4

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=3, sim=6; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yordan Alvarez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=5, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Christian Walker: R current=0 box=1; Jeremy Peña: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Yainer Diaz: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Cam Smith: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=6; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=4; R: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=9, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vaughn Grissom: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mike Trout: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nolan Schanuel: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Zach Neto: SO current=1 box=2; Jo Adell: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Denzer Guzman: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match LAA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match LAA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match LAA pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=39 matches LAA BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match HOU pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match HOU pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match HOU pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=34 matches HOU BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.570.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.570.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.430.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.481/0.666.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 9, LAA 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 6 - LAA 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: HOU.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for HOU; cap=0.57, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.57, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'opponent_team': 'LAA', 'h2h_net_margin': -8, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-06-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-06-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -9, 'winner': 'LAA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260728_HOU@LAA.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260727_HOU@LAA.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'HOU', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'output_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'final_score_winner': 'HOU', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'HOU 5 - 3 LAA', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'HOU 6 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3568, 'winner': 'HOU', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_HOU@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@LAA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 6 - 4 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 6 - 4 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: HOU wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=HOU, final=HOU.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.570.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: HOU wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: HOU wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: HOU wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match LAA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match LAA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match LAA pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=39 matches LAA BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match HOU pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match HOU pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match HOU pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=34 matches HOU BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.570.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.570.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.430.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.481/0.666.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 9, LAA 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 6 - LAA 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: HOU.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for HOU; cap=0.57, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.57, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'opponent_team': 'LAA', 'h2h_net_margin': -8, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-06-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-06-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -9, 'winner': 'LAA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260728_HOU@LAA.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260727_HOU@LAA.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'HOU', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'output_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'final_score_winner': 'HOU', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'HOU 5 - 3 LAA', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'HOU 6 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.3568, 'winner': 'HOU', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_HOU@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@LAA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 6 - 4 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 6 - 4 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: HOU wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=HOU, final=HOU.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.570.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: HOU wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: HOU wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-4, final 6-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: HOU wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=3, sim=6; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yordan Alvarez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=5, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Christian Walker: R current=0 box=1; Jeremy Peña: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Yainer Diaz: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Cam Smith: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=6; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=4; R: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=9, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vaughn Grissom: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mike Trout: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nolan Schanuel: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Zach Neto: SO current=1 box=2; Jo Adell: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Wade Meckler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Denzer Guzman: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	7.995927333831787	4.289090633392334		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	8	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.570	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	1	0	6	9
LAA	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	HOU	batting	34	9	0	0	0	4	3	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	HOU	pitching		6			1		4	0	10					9.0	4	0	0
current	LAA	batting	33	9	0	0	0	2	2	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	LAA	pitching		9			2		6	3	7					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	HOU	batting	36	9	2	0	2	6	6	3	7	0	0
simulation	HOU	pitching		6			1		4	0	10					9.0	4	34	140
simulation	LAA	batting	33	6	0	0	1	4	4	0	10	0	1
simulation	LAA	pitching		9			2		6	3	7					9.0	6	39	153

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	HOU		DH	Yordan Alvarez	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		3B	Isaac Paredes	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		1B	Christian Walker	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		SS	Jeremy Peña	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		2B	Jose Altuve	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		LF	Taylor Trammell	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	HOU		C	Yainer Diaz	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		RF	Cam Smith	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		CF	Lucas Spence	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		2B	Vaughn Grissom	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		DH	Mike Trout	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		1B	Nolan Schanuel	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		SS	Zach Neto	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		RF	Jo Adell	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		LF	Wade Meckler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		3B	Denzer Guzman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		CF	Josh Lowe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		C	Tyler Heineman	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	HOU	1	SS	Jeremy Peña	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	5	4	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	HOU	3	3B	Isaac Paredes	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	HOU	4	1B	Christian Walker	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	5	2B	Jose Altuve	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	6	LF	Taylor Trammell	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	7	C	Yainer Diaz	4	4	2	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	HOU	8	RF	Cam Smith	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	9	CF	Lucas Spence	4	2	2	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	1.000
simulation	LAA	1	SS	Zach Neto	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	2	DH	Mike Trout	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	3	1B	Nolan Schanuel	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	LAA	4	2B	Vaughn Grissom	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	LAA	5	RF	Jo Adell	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	6	LF	Wade Meckler	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	7	3B	Denzer Guzman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	8	CF	Josh Lowe	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	LAA	9	C	Tyler Heineman	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	HOU	1	Hunter Brown	Starter	5.1	6	4	4	0	5	1	0	0	6.75	3.45	1.28
current	HOU	2	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	4.91	1.50
current	HOU	3	Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	0.82	0.77
current	HOU	4	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.05	0.82
current	LAA	1	Grayson Rodriguez	Starter	4.0	7	4	4	1	3	0	0	0	9.00	8.54	1.79
current	LAA	2	Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	6.75	3.20	1.07
current	LAA	3	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.78	1.20
current	LAA	4	Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	6.75	4.26	1.31
current	LAA	5	Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.08	0.83
simulation	HOU	1	Hunter Brown	Starter	5.1	6	4	4	0	5	1	22	91	6.75	3.45	1.28
simulation	HOU	2	Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	14	0.00	0.82	0.77
simulation	HOU	3	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	16	0.00	2.05	0.82
simulation	HOU	4	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	19	0.00	4.91	1.50
simulation	LAA	1	Grayson Rodriguez	Starter	4.0	7	4	4	1	3	0	20	82	9.00	8.54	1.79
simulation	LAA	2	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	19	0.00	3.78	1.20
simulation	LAA	3	Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	1	1	1	6	11	6.75	3.20	1.07
simulation	LAA	4	Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	1	5	20	6.75	4.26	1.31
simulation	LAA	5	Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	21	0.00	2.08	0.83

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
HOU	Hunter Brown	Starter	5.1	4	6	0	5	22	91
HOU	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	3	3	19
HOU	Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	4	14
HOU	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	16
LAA	Grayson Rodriguez	Starter	4.0	4	7	1	3	20	82
LAA	Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	1	6	11
LAA	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	19
LAA	Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	0	1	5	20
LAA	Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	1	5	21

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260729_KC@MIN

20260729_KC@MIN.json • 2026-07-29

KC 2 - MIN 4

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=0, sim=2; R: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=3; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carter Jensen: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Salvador Perez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Jac Caglianone: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: BB current=0 box=1; Josh Rojas: AB current=3 box=4; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Lane Thomas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=29; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brooks Lee: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Trevor Larnach: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Alan Roden: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Victor Caratini: RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Luke Keaschall: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match MIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match MIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match MIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=40 matches MIN BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match KC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match KC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=35 matches KC BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.603/0.810.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 9, MIN 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 2 - MIN 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIN; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'KC', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-06-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-06-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'KC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260728_KC@MIN.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'KC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'final_score_winner': 'MIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'KC 2 - 3 MIN', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 2 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7824, 'winner': 'MIN', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_KC@MIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@MIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 2 - 4 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 2 - 4 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIN, final=MIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIN wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIN wins 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-4, final 2-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIN wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match MIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match MIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match MIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=40 matches MIN BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match KC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match KC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=35 matches KC BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.603/0.810.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 9, MIN 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 2 - MIN 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIN; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'KC', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-06-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-06-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'KC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260728_KC@MIN.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'KC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'KC', 'final_score_winner': 'MIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'KC 2 - 3 MIN', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 2 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.7824, 'winner': 'MIN', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_KC@MIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@MIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 2 - 4 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 2 - 4 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIN, final=MIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIN wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIN wins 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-4, final 2-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIN wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=0, sim=2; R: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=3; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carter Jensen: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Salvador Perez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Jac Caglianone: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Massey: BB current=0 box=1; Josh Rojas: AB current=3 box=4; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Lane Thomas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=29; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brooks Lee: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Trevor Larnach: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Alan Roden: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Victor Caratini: RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Luke Keaschall: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.7468976974487305	3.445530891418457		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	3		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	2	3	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	2	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	9
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	4	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	KC	batting	30	9	0	0	0	1	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		5				4	6	3					8.0	4	0	0
current	MIN	batting	31	9	0	0	3	5	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIN	pitching		9				2	3	9					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	KC	batting	36	9	3	0	2	2	3	9	0	1
simulation	KC	pitching		5				4	6	3					8.0	4	35	145
simulation	MIN	batting	29	5	1	0	4	4	6	3	0	0
simulation	MIN	pitching		9				2	3	9					9.0	2	40	168

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	KC		C	Carter Jensen	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		1B	Salvador Perez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		RF	Jac Caglianone	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		3B	Nick Loftin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		2B	Michael Massey	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		DH	Josh Rojas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		LF	Isaac Collins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		CF	Lane Thomas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		SS	Tyler Tolbert	0	3	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		3B	Brooks Lee	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		2B	Kody Clemens	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		LF	Trevor Larnach	0	3	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		DH	Josh Bell	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		RF	Alan Roden	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		C	Victor Caratini	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		1B	Royce Lewis	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		CF	Luke Keaschall	0	3	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		SS	Ryan Kreidler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	KC	1	C	Carter Jensen	5	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	KC	2	CF	Lane Thomas	5	4	2	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.500
simulation	KC	3	RF	Jac Caglianone	5	5	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	KC	4	1B	Salvador Perez	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	5	2B	Michael Massey	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	KC	6	3B	Nick Loftin	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	KC	7	LF	Isaac Collins	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	KC	8	DH	Josh Rojas	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	KC	9	SS	Tyler Tolbert	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	1	LF	Trevor Larnach	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	2	3B	Brooks Lee	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	3	2B	Kody Clemens	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	4	DH	Josh Bell	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	5	1B	Royce Lewis	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	6	C	Victor Caratini	4	3	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	7	RF	Alan Roden	4	3	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	8	CF	Luke Keaschall	4	4	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	9	SS	Ryan Kreidler	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	KC	1	Randy Dobnak	Starter	5.0	1	0	0	3	2	0	0	0.00	1.42	1.37
current	KC	2	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	9.00	2.05	0.93
current	KC	3	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.76	1.38
current	KC	5	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	0.1	2	3	3	3	0	0	0	81.00	6.33	1.55
current	MIN	1	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.2	5	1	1	3	6	0	0	1.59	3.38	1.10
current	MIN	2	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.00	3.24	1.26
current	MIN	3	Tommy Nance	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	9.00	3.66	1.32
current	MIN	4	Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.40	1.26
simulation	KC	1	Randy Dobnak	Starter	5.0	1	0	0	3	2	19	83	0.00	1.42	1.37
simulation	KC	2	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	0.1	2	3	3	3	0	6	22	81.00	6.33	1.55
simulation	KC	3	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	5	19	9.00	2.05	0.93
simulation	KC	4	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	5	21	0.00	3.76	1.38
simulation	MIN	1	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.2	5	1	1	3	6	25	110	1.59	3.38	1.10
simulation	MIN	2	Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	4	14	0.00	3.40	1.26
simulation	MIN	3	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	5	22	0.00	3.24	1.26
simulation	MIN	4	Tommy Nance	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	6	22	9.00	3.66	1.32

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
KC	Randy Dobnak	Starter	5.0	0	1	3	2	19	83
KC	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	19
KC	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	21
KC	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	0.1	3	2	3	0	6	22
MIN	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.2	1	5	3	6	25	110
MIN	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	2	5	22
MIN	Tommy Nance	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	3	0	1	6	22
MIN	Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	4	14

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260729_MIL@SF

20260729_MIL@SF.json • 2026-07-29

MIL 3 - SF 2

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=7, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jackson Chourio: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; William Contreras: AB current=4 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=2; Christian Yelich: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Bauers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Andrew Vaughn: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heliot Ramos: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Bryce Eldridge: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Rafael Devers: RBI current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: AB current=5 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Grant McCray: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Jung Hoo Lee: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Daniel Susac: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Willy Adames: H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match SF pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match SF pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match SF pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=39 matches SF BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match MIL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match MIL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=36 matches MIL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 5.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.685/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 7, SF 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 3 - SF 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': -7, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-06-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-06-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SF'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260727_MIL@SF.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'MIL 3 - 2 SF', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 2.0584, 'winner': 'MIL', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_MIL@SF.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@SF.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 3 - 2 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 3 - 2 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 3-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIL, final=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIL wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-2, final 3-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 3-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match SF pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match SF pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match SF pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=39 matches SF BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match MIL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match MIL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=36 matches MIL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 5.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.685/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 7, SF 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 3 - SF 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': -7, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-06-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-06-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SF'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260727_MIL@SF.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'MIL 3 - 2 SF', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': 2.0584, 'winner': 'MIL', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_MIL@SF.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@SF.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 3 - 2 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 3 - 2 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 3-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIL, final=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIL wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-2, final 3-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 3-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=7, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jackson Chourio: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; William Contreras: AB current=4 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=2; Christian Yelich: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Bauers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Andrew Vaughn: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Heliot Ramos: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Bryce Eldridge: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Rafael Devers: RBI current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: AB current=5 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Grant McCray: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Jung Hoo Lee: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Daniel Susac: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Willy Adames: H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	6.624199867248535	2.922755479812622		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	3		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	3	7
SF	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIL	batting	33	9	0	0	0	5	7	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIL	pitching		6			1		2	2	10					9.0	2	0	0
current	SF	batting	34	8	0	0	0	2	0	1	7	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		7			2		3	5	8					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	MIL	batting	34	7	1	0	2	3	3	5	8	0	0
simulation	MIL	pitching		6			1		2	2	10					9.0	2	36	154
simulation	SF	batting	33	6	2	0	1	2	2	2	10	0	1
simulation	SF	pitching		7			2		3	5	8					9.0	3	39	176

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	MIL		LF	Jackson Chourio	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	MIL		C	William Contreras	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		DH	Christian Yelich	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		RF	Jake Bauers	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		2B	Brice Turang	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		1B	Andrew Vaughn	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIL		SS	Cooper Pratt	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		CF	Garrett Mitchell	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		3B	David Hamilton	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		LF	Heliot Ramos	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		1B	Bryce Eldridge	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	SF		DH	Rafael Devers	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		2B	Luis Arraez	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.200
current	SF		CF	Grant McCray	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	SF		C	Daniel Susac	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		SS	Willy Adames	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		3B	Christian Koss	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	1	DH	Christian Yelich	5	5	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	MIL	2	LF	Jackson Chourio	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	MIL	3	2B	Brice Turang	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	4	C	William Contreras	4	2	1	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	MIL	5	RF	Jake Bauers	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	6	1B	Andrew Vaughn	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIL	7	CF	Garrett Mitchell	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	8	SS	Cooper Pratt	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	9	3B	David Hamilton	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SF	1	2B	Luis Arraez	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	SF	2	1B	Bryce Eldridge	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	0.000
simulation	SF	3	LF	Heliot Ramos	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	SF	4	DH	Rafael Devers	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SF	5	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	SF	6	SS	Willy Adames	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SF	7	C	Daniel Susac	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	SF	8	CF	Grant McCray	4	4	2	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	SF	9	3B	Christian Koss	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIL	1	Jacob Misiorowski	Starter	6.1	4	1	1	1	9	1	0	0	1.42	1.57	0.75
current	MIL	2	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.32	1.08
current	MIL	3	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.06	0.94
current	MIL	4	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	13.50	3.28	1.39
current	SF	1	Logan Webb	Starter	6.0	4	2	2	2	7	0	0	0	3.00	3.98	1.12
current	SF	2	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.92	1.23
current	SF	3	Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	0.00	2.59	1.31
current	SF	4	JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	3.10	1.17
simulation	MIL	1	Jacob Misiorowski	Starter	6.1	4	1	1	1	9	1	24	107	1.42	1.57	0.75
simulation	MIL	2	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	13	0.00	2.06	0.94
simulation	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	2.32	1.08
simulation	MIL	4	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	0	4	17	13.50	3.28	1.39
simulation	SF	1	Logan Webb	Starter	6.0	4	2	2	2	7	0	24	103	3.00	3.98	1.12
simulation	SF	2	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	3.92	1.23
simulation	SF	3	Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	3	0	1	7	28	0.00	2.59	1.31
simulation	SF	4	JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	4	29	9.00	3.10	1.17

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIL	Jacob Misiorowski	Starter	6.1	1	4	1	9	24	107
MIL	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
MIL	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	4	13
MIL	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	2	0	1	4	17
SF	Logan Webb	Starter	6.0	2	4	2	7	24	103
SF	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
SF	Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	3	0	7	28
SF	JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	29

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260729_NYY@CHW

20260729_NYY@CHW.json • 2026-07-29

NYY 5 - CHW 3

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=3; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tristan Peters: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Drew Romo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Sam Antonacci: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jasson Domínguez: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Paul Goldschmidt: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Trent Grisham: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ben Rice: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Spencer Jones: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: HR current=0 box=1; Ryan McMahon: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1; José Caballero: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match NYY pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=33 matches NYY BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match CHW pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match CHW pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match CHW pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=38 matches CHW BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.603/0.810.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 7, CHW 3.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 5 - CHW 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.58, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-06-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260728_NYY@CHW.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260727_NYY@CHW.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYY 4 - 3 CHW', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYY 5 - 3 CHW', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5218, 'winner': 'NYY', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_NYY@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@CHW.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 5 - 3 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 5 - 3 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYY, final=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYY wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 5-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match NYY pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=33 matches NYY BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match CHW pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match CHW pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match CHW pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=38 matches CHW BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.603/0.810.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 7, CHW 3.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 5 - CHW 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.58, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-06-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260728_NYY@CHW.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260727_NYY@CHW.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYY 4 - 3 CHW', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYY 5 - 3 CHW', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.5218, 'winner': 'NYY', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_NYY@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@CHW.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 5 - 3 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 5 - 3 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYY, final=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYY wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 5-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=3; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tristan Peters: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Drew Romo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Sam Antonacci: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jasson Domínguez: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Paul Goldschmidt: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Trent Grisham: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ben Rice: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Spencer Jones: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: HR current=0 box=1; Ryan McMahon: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1; José Caballero: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	6.583204746246338	4.051489353179932		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.580	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	5	7
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	3

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	NYY	batting	32	9	0	0	0	2	4	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	NYY	pitching		3			1		3	3	7					9.0	3	0	0
current	CHW	batting	32	9	0	0	0	3	5	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	CHW	pitching		7			2		5	4	8					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	NYY	batting	34	7	3	0	2	5	5	4	8	0	0
simulation	NYY	pitching		3			1		3	3	7					9.0	3	33	149
simulation	CHW	batting	30	3	1	0	1	3	3	3	7	0	0
simulation	CHW	pitching		7			2		5	4	8					9.0	5	38	164

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	NYY		RF	Jasson Domínguez	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		1B	Paul Goldschmidt	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		CF	Trent Grisham	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		DH	Ben Rice	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		LF	Spencer Jones	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		3B	Ryan McMahon	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		SS	José Caballero	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		C	Austin Wells	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		DH	Tristan Peters	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		C	Chase Meidroth	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		1B	Munetaka Murakami	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		2B	Colson Montgomery	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		3B	Braden Montgomery	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		SS	Drew Romo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		LF	Miguel Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		CF	Sam Antonacci	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		RF	Andrew Benintendi	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
simulation	NYY	1	CF	Trent Grisham	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	2	DH	Ben Rice	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	NYY	3	RF	Jasson Domínguez	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	NYY	4	1B	Paul Goldschmidt	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0.333
simulation	NYY	5	LF	Spencer Jones	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	NYY	6	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	NYY	7	3B	Ryan McMahon	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	NYY	8	SS	José Caballero	4	3	2	2	0	1	2	1	0	0.667
simulation	NYY	9	C	Austin Wells	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	1	CF	Tristan Peters	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	2	SS	Colson Montgomery	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	CHW	3	2B	Chase Meidroth	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	4	IF	Munetaka Murakami	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	5	C	Drew Romo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CHW	6	3B	Miguel Vargas	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	7	OF	Braden Montgomery	3	3	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.333
simulation	CHW	8	SS	Sam Antonacci	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CHW	9	DH	Andrew Benintendi	3	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	NYY	1	Cam Schlittler	Starter	6.0	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	0.00	2.07	0.93
current	NYY	2	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.33	1.09
current	NYY	3	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.74	1.07
current	NYY	4	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	3	2	0	1	0	0	27.00	2.44	1.31
current	CHW	1	Davis Martin	Starter	6.0	4	2	2	3	6	2	0	0	3.00	3.31	1.19
current	CHW	2	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.57	1.35
current	CHW	3	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	1.42	1.26
current	CHW	4	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0		27.00	6.00
current	CHW	5	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	7.71	1.71
simulation	NYY	1	Cam Schlittler	Starter	6.0	0	0	0	1	7	0	19	94	0.00	2.07	0.93
simulation	NYY	2	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	18	0.00	2.74	1.07
simulation	NYY	3	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	3	2	0	1	8	21	27.00	2.44	1.31
simulation	NYY	4	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	16	0.00	1.33	1.09
simulation	CHW	1	Davis Martin	Starter	6.0	4	2	2	3	6	2	25	100	3.00	3.31	1.19
simulation	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	5	19	9.00	1.42	1.26
simulation	CHW	3	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	1	0	3	11	9.00	7.71	1.71
simulation	CHW	4	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	1.57	1.35
simulation	CHW	5	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	18		27.00	6.00

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
NYY	Cam Schlittler	Starter	6.0	0	0	1	7	19	94
NYY	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
NYY	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	18
NYY	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	2	0	8	21
CHW	Davis Martin	Starter	6.0	2	4	3	6	25	100
CHW	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
CHW	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	19
CHW	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	0	1	0	1	18
CHW	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	11

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260729_PHI@MIA

20260729_PHI@MIA.json • 2026-07-29

PHI 5 - MIA 2

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: RBI current=1 box=0; Xavier Edwards: SO current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Otto Lopez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Javier Sanoja: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Leo Jiménez: AB current=3 box=4; Liam Hicks: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Esteury Ruiz: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=7; SO: current=9, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brandon Marsh: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Trea Turner: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bryce Harper: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; J.T. Realmuto: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Gabriel Rincones Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match PHI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match PHI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=36 matches PHI BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match MIA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match MIA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=42 matches MIA BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.519/0.712.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PHI 8, MIA 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PHI 5 - MIA 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': -10, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-06-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -8, 'winner': 'MIA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260728_PHI@MIA.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.57, 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260727_PHI@MIA.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PHI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 MIA', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 2 MIA', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1157, 'winner': 'PHI', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_PHI@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PHI@MIA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 182.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 182.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 5 - 2 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PHI 5 - 2 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=PHI, final=PHI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PHI wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match PHI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match PHI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=36 matches PHI BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match MIA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match MIA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=42 matches MIA BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.519/0.712.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PHI 8, MIA 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PHI 5 - MIA 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': -10, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-06-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -8, 'winner': 'MIA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260728_PHI@MIA.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.57, 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260727_PHI@MIA.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PHI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 MIA', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 2 MIA', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.1157, 'winner': 'PHI', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_PHI@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PHI@MIA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 182.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 182.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 5 - 2 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PHI 5 - 2 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=PHI, final=PHI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PHI wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 2/10 = 0.200.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: RBI current=1 box=0; Xavier Edwards: SO current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Otto Lopez: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Javier Sanoja: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Leo Jiménez: AB current=3 box=4; Liam Hicks: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Esteury Ruiz: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=7; SO: current=9, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brandon Marsh: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Trea Turner: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bryce Harper: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; J.T. Realmuto: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Gabriel Rincones Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	6.886298656463623	3.701752185821533		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.560	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	8
MIA	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	PHI	batting	34	9	0	0	0	3	3	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	PHI	pitching		8			0		2	1	10					9.0	2	0	0
current	MIA	batting	33	9	0	0	0	2	2	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIA	pitching		8			1		5	7	5					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	PHI	batting	35	8	1	0	1	5	5	7	5	0	0
simulation	PHI	pitching		8			0		2	1	10					9.0	2	36	153
simulation	MIA	batting	35	8	2	0	0	2	2	1	10	0	0
simulation	MIA	pitching		8			1		5	7	5					9.0	5	42	182

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	PHI		LF	Brandon Marsh	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	PHI		DH	Kyle Schwarber	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	PHI		SS	Trea Turner	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	PHI		1B	Bryce Harper	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	PHI		3B	Alec Bohm	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	PHI		C	J.T. Realmuto	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	PHI		2B	Bryson Stott	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	PHI		RF	Gabriel Rincones Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	PHI		CF	Justin Crawford	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		1B	Kyle Stowers	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		2B	Xavier Edwards	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		LF	Heriberto Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		SS	Otto Lopez	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	MIA		RF	Javier Sanoja	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIA		3B	Leo Jiménez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		DH	Liam Hicks	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		CF	Esteury Ruiz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		C	Joe Mack	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	PHI	1	SS	Trea Turner	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	PHI	2	DH	Kyle Schwarber	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0.000
simulation	PHI	3	1B	Bryce Harper	5	3	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	0.333
simulation	PHI	4	LF	Brandon Marsh	5	5	2	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.400
simulation	PHI	5	3B	Alec Bohm	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	6	2B	Bryson Stott	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	7	C	J.T. Realmuto	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.667
simulation	PHI	8	RF	Gabriel Rincones Jr.	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	9	CF	Justin Crawford	4	3	2	0	0	1	3	1	1	0.667
simulation	MIA	1	SS	Otto Lopez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	MIA	2	LF	Heriberto Hernández	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	MIA	3	1B	Kyle Stowers	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIA	4	2B	Xavier Edwards	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	5	RF	Javier Sanoja	4	4	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	MIA	6	DH	Liam Hicks	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	MIA	7	3B	Leo Jiménez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIA	8	CF	Esteury Ruiz	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	9	C	Joe Mack	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	1	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	PHI	1	Jesús Luzardo	Starter	6.0	7	2	2	0	8	0	0	0	3.00	3.31	1.17
current	PHI	2	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5.85	1.52
current	PHI	3	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.61	1.23
current	PHI	4	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.53	0.93
current	MIA	1	Ryan Gusto	Starter	4.0	4	4	4	5	2	1	0	0	9.00	4.50	1.32
current	MIA	2	Cade Gibson	Middle Reliever	1.2	2	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	5.40	5.79	1.46
current	MIA	3	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.57	1.50
current	MIA	5	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.84	1.02
current	MIA	6	Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	6.96	1.42
simulation	PHI	1	Jesús Luzardo	Starter	6.0	7	2	2	0	8	0	25	98	3.00	3.31	1.17
simulation	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	0	3	16	0.00	1.53	0.93
simulation	PHI	3	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	19	0.00	2.61	1.23
simulation	PHI	4	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	20	0.00	5.85	1.52
simulation	MIA	1	Ryan Gusto	Starter	4.0	4	4	4	5	2	1	21	94	9.00	4.50	1.32
simulation	MIA	2	Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	5	20	0.00	6.96	1.42
simulation	MIA	3	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	2.84	1.02
simulation	MIA	4	Cade Gibson	Middle Reliever	1.2	2	1	1	1	2	0	8	32	5.40	5.79	1.46
simulation	MIA	5	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	19	0.00	4.57	1.50

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
PHI	Jesús Luzardo	Starter	6.0	2	7	0	8	25	98
PHI	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	0	5	20
PHI	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	19
PHI	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	1	1	3	16
MIA	Ryan Gusto	Starter	4.0	4	4	5	2	21	94
MIA	Cade Gibson	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	2	1	2	8	32
MIA	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	19
MIA	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
MIA	Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	1	5	20

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260729_SEA@LAD

20260729_SEA@LAD.json • 2026-07-29

SEA 3 - LAD 5

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=9, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Freddie Freeman: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Andy Pages: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Tommy Edman: HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mookie Betts: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Young: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Dominic Canzone: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0; Randy Arozarena: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Rob Refsnyder: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Naylor: H current=1 box=0; Weston Wilson: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match SEA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match SEA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=36 matches SEA BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match LAD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match LAD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=39 matches LAD BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.481/0.666.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 7, LAD 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 3 - LAD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for LAD.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260728_SEA@LAD.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_SEA@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@LAD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 174.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 174.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 3 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 3 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=LAD, final=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match SEA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match SEA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=36 matches SEA BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match LAD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match LAD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=39 matches LAD BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.481/0.666.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 7, LAD 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 3 - LAD 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for LAD.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260728_SEA@LAD.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_SEA@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@LAD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 174.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 174.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 3 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 3 - 5 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=LAD, final=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=9, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Freddie Freeman: H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Andy Pages: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Tommy Edman: HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mookie Betts: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Kyle Tucker: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Young: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Dominic Canzone: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0; Randy Arozarena: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Rob Refsnyder: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Naylor: H current=1 box=0; Weston Wilson: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	8.362157821655273	4.176263809204102		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	9	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.660	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	7
LAD	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	1	0	5	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SEA	batting	32	9	0	0	0	1	2	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	SEA	pitching		10			3		5	2	8					8.0	5	0	0
current	LAD	batting	35	9	0	0	0	4	9	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		7			1		3	5	4					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	SEA	batting	33	7	1	0	1	3	3	5	4	1	0
simulation	SEA	pitching		10			3		5	2	8					8.0	5	36	158
simulation	LAD	batting	34	10	2	0	3	5	5	2	8	0	0
simulation	LAD	pitching		7			1		3	5	4					9.0	3	39	174

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	SEA		2B	Cole Young	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		RF	Dominic Canzone	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	SEA		CF	Julio Rodríguez	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		LF	Randy Arozarena	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		C	Cal Raleigh	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		DH	Rob Refsnyder	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SEA		1B	Josh Naylor	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		3B	Weston Wilson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SEA		SS	Colt Emerson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		DH	Shohei Ohtani	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		3B	Max Muncy	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		CF	Andy Pages	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		2B	Tommy Edman	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		SS	Mookie Betts	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		C	Dalton Rushing	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	SEA	1	2B	Cole Young	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	SEA	2	LF	Randy Arozarena	5	4	1	0	1	1	2	1	1	0.250
simulation	SEA	3	CF	Julio Rodríguez	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	SEA	4	RF	Dominic Canzone	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	5	C	Cal Raleigh	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	SEA	6	1B	Josh Naylor	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SEA	7	DH	Rob Refsnyder	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	8	3B	Weston Wilson	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	SEA	9	SS	Colt Emerson	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.667
simulation	LAD	1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	LAD	2	CF	Andy Pages	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	LAD	3	1B	Freddie Freeman	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.500
simulation	LAD	4	3B	Max Muncy	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	LAD	5	2B	Tommy Edman	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	6	SS	Mookie Betts	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	7	RF	Kyle Tucker	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	LAD	8	LF	Teoscar Hernández	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	LAD	9	C	Dalton Rushing	4	4	2	0	1	1	3	0	1	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SEA	1	Emerson Hancock	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	2	7	1	0	0	4.76	3.16	1.01
current	SEA	2	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	2	0	0	2	0	0	13.50	2.87	1.26
current	SEA	3	José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.66	1.30
current	SEA	5	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		3.52	1.17
current	LAD	1	Eric Lauer	Starter	5.1	5	3	3	2	1	1	0	0	5.06	4.83	1.26
current	LAD	2	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.45	0.75
current	LAD	3	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	6.75	1.35
current	LAD	4	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.32	0.80
current	LAD	5	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.75	1.19
simulation	SEA	1	Emerson Hancock	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	2	7	1	25	102	4.76	3.16	1.01
simulation	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14		3.52	1.17
simulation	SEA	3	José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	5	19	0.00	2.66	1.30
simulation	SEA	4	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	2	0	0	2	6	23	13.50	2.87	1.26
simulation	LAD	1	Eric Lauer	Starter	5.1	5	3	3	2	1	1	23	102	5.06	4.83	1.26
simulation	LAD	2	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	2.32	0.80
simulation	LAD	3	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	6.75	1.35
simulation	LAD	4	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	2	1	0	5	19	0.00	2.75	1.19
simulation	LAD	5	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	20	0.00	2.45	0.75

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SEA	Emerson Hancock	Starter	5.2	3	6	2	7	25	102
SEA	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	0	0	6	23
SEA	José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	1	5	19
SEA	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	14
LAD	Eric Lauer	Starter	5.1	3	5	2	1	23	102
LAD	Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	20
LAD	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
LAD	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
LAD	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	2	1	5	19

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260729_TEX@TB

20260729_TEX@TB.json • 2026-07-29

TEX 3 - TB 6

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=3, sim=6; R: current=2, sim=6; BB: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonathan Aranda: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Junior Caminero: H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Vilade: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jonny DeLuca: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Nick Fortes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Ben Williamson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Burger: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Wyatt Langford: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Justin Foscue: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nicky Lopez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Cameron Cauley: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1; Alejandro Osuna: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match TEX pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match TEX pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=35 matches TEX BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match TB pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match TB pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match TB pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=37 matches TB BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.437/0.615.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 6, TB 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 3 - TB 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'TEX', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TEX'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.5968097858606976, 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260728_TEX@TB.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'TEX 3 - 6 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6425, 'winner': 'TB', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_TEX@TB.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@TB.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 3 - 6 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 3 - 6 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=TB, final=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TB wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-6.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-6, final 3-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match TEX pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match TEX pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=35 matches TEX BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match TB pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match TB pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match TB pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=37 matches TB BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.437/0.615.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 6, TB 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 3 - TB 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'TEX', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TEX'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.5968097858606976, 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260728_TEX@TB.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'TEX 3 - 6 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 0.6425, 'winner': 'TB', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_TEX@TB.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@TB.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 3 - 6 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 3 - 6 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=TB, final=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TB wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-6.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-6, final 3-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=3, sim=6; R: current=2, sim=6; BB: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonathan Aranda: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Junior Caminero: H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Vilade: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jonny DeLuca: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Nick Fortes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Ben Williamson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Burger: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Ezequiel Duran: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Wyatt Langford: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Justin Foscue: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nicky Lopez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Cameron Cauley: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1; Alejandro Osuna: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	6.4635772705078125	4.889930248260498		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	7	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	3	6
TB	3	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	6	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TEX	batting	32	9	0	0	0	4	3	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	TEX	pitching		10			3		6	1	3					8.0	6	0	0
current	TB	batting	31	9	0	0	0	3	2	0	7	0	0	0	0
current	TB	pitching		6			0		3	3	6					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	TEX	batting	33	6	1	0	0	3	3	3	6	0	1
simulation	TEX	pitching		10			3		6	1	3					8.0	6	35	140
simulation	TB	batting	34	10	1	0	3	6	6	1	3	0	0
simulation	TB	pitching		6			0		3	3	6					9.0	3	37	153

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TEX		1B	Jake Burger	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		3B	Ezequiel Duran	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		RF	Brandon Nimmo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		DH	Wyatt Langford	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	TEX		2B	Justin Foscue	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		SS	Nicky Lopez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		CF	Cameron Cauley	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		LF	Alejandro Osuna	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		C	Elias Díaz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		1B	Jonathan Aranda	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		3B	Junior Caminero	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		DH	Yandy Díaz	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		RF	Ryan Vilade	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		CF	Jonny DeLuca	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		C	Nick Fortes	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
current	TB		LF	Chandler Simpson	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TB		2B	Ben Williamson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		SS	Taylor Walls	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	TEX	1	DH	Wyatt Langford	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	2	3B	Ezequiel Duran	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	TEX	3	RF	Brandon Nimmo	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	4	1B	Jake Burger	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	TEX	5	2B	Justin Foscue	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	6	SS	Nicky Lopez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	7	CF	Cameron Cauley	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	8	LF	Alejandro Osuna	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	9	C	Elias Díaz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TB	1	DH	Yandy Díaz	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TB	2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	4	4	2	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	TB	3	3B	Junior Caminero	4	4	3	0	2	1	3	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	TB	4	RF	Ryan Vilade	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	TB	5	CF	Jonny DeLuca	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TB	6	LF	Chandler Simpson	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TB	7	2B	Ben Williamson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TB	8	C	Nick Fortes	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TB	9	SS	Taylor Walls	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TEX	1	MacKenzie Gore	Starter	5.0	8	6	6	1	1	3	0	0	10.80	4.82	1.31
current	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.26	0.58
current	TEX	3	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.43	1.25
current	TEX	4	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.13	1.33
current	TEX	6	Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		6.11	1.36
current	TB	1	Casey Legumina	Starter	5.0	6	3	3	3	3	0	0	0	5.40	3.53	1.27
current	TB	2	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.22	0.86
current	TB	3	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.56	0.84
current	TB	4	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.48	1.26
current	TB	5	Cam Booser	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.74	0.68
simulation	TEX	1	MacKenzie Gore	Starter	5.0	8	6	6	1	1	3	24	91	10.80	4.82	1.31
simulation	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	4	0.00	1.26	0.58
simulation	TEX	3	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	3.43	1.25
simulation	TEX	4	Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	13		6.11	1.36
simulation	TEX	5	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	15	0.00	3.13	1.33
simulation	TB	1	Casey Legumina	Starter	5.0	6	3	3	3	3	0	24	93	5.40	3.53	1.27
simulation	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	14	0.00	1.56	0.84
simulation	TB	3	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	15	0.00	2.22	0.86
simulation	TB	4	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	16	0.00	3.48	1.26
simulation	TB	5	Cam Booser	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	1.74	0.68

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TEX	MacKenzie Gore	Starter	5.0	6	8	1	1	24	91
TEX	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	4
TEX	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17
TEX	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	15
TEX	Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	1	0	0	1	13
TB	Casey Legumina	Starter	5.0	3	6	3	3	24	93
TB	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	15
TB	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	14
TB	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
TB	Cam Booser	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	1	3	15

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260729_TOR@WAS

20260729_TOR@WAS.json • 2026-07-29

TOR 4 - WAS 2

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=4; R: current=0, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nathan Lukes: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Yohendrick Pinango: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; George Springer: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Valenzuela: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: H current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Andrés Giménez: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Daulton Varsho: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=6, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dylan Crews: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; James Wood: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Keibert Ruiz: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Jorbit Vivas: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Daylen Lile: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match WAS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match WAS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=40 matches WAS BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match TOR pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match TOR pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match TOR pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=35 matches TOR BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.472/0.656.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 7, WAS 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 4 - WAS 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TOR.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TOR.	{'winner_confidence': 0.51, 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.56, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260728_TOR@WAS.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 1, 'file': '20260727_TOR@WAS.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_TOR@WAS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@WAS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 172.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 172.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 4 - 2 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 4 - 2 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=TOR, final=TOR.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TOR wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-2, final 4-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TOR wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match WAS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match WAS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=40 matches WAS BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match TOR pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match TOR pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match TOR pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=35 matches TOR BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.472/0.656.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 7, WAS 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 4 - WAS 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TOR.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TOR.	{'winner_confidence': 0.51, 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-28', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.56, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260728_TOR@WAS.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-27', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 1, 'file': '20260727_TOR@WAS.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-29.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260729_TOR@WAS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@WAS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 172.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 172.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 4 - 2 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 4 - 2 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=TOR, final=TOR.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TOR wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-2, final 4-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TOR wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=4; R: current=0, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nathan Lukes: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Yohendrick Pinango: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; George Springer: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Valenzuela: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: H current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Andrés Giménez: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Daulton Varsho: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=6, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dylan Crews: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; James Wood: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Keibert Ruiz: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Jorbit Vivas: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Daylen Lile: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	7.090088844299316	4.176128387451172		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	8	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	2	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	2		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	2		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	2		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	7
WAS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TOR	batting	32	9	0	0	0	1	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	TOR	pitching		5			0		2	2	10					9.0	2	0	0
current	WAS	batting	31	9	0	0	0	4	6	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	WAS	pitching		7			1		4	5	7					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	TOR	batting	34	7	1	0	1	4	4	5	7	0	1
simulation	TOR	pitching		5			0		2	2	10					9.0	2	35	155
simulation	WAS	batting	32	5	2	0	0	2	2	2	10	0	1
simulation	WAS	pitching		7			1		4	5	7					9.0	4	40	172

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TOR		RF	Nathan Lukes	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		LF	Yohendrick Pinango	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TOR		1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		DH	George Springer	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		C	Brandon Valenzuela	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TOR		3B	Ernie Clement	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		SS	Andrés Giménez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TOR		CF	Daulton Varsho	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		2B	Luis Urías	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	WAS		RF	Dylan Crews	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		DH	James Wood	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		1B	Luis García Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	WAS		SS	CJ Abrams	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		C	Keibert Ruiz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	WAS		3B	Jorbit Vivas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	WAS		2B	Nasim Nuñez	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	WAS		LF	Daylen Lile	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		CF	Jacob Young	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	TOR	1	LF	Yohendrick Pinango	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	2	RF	Nathan Lukes	5	3	1	0	0	1	0	2	2	0	0.333
simulation	TOR	3	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	5	5	2	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	TOR	4	DH	George Springer	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	5	C	Brandon Valenzuela	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	6	CF	Daulton Varsho	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TOR	7	3B	Ernie Clement	4	4	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	TOR	8	SS	Andrés Giménez	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	9	2B	Luis Urías	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	1	DH	James Wood	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	2	1B	Luis García Jr.	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	3	RF	Dylan Crews	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	4	SS	CJ Abrams	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	5	C	Keibert Ruiz	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	WAS	6	LF	Daylen Lile	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	7	2B	Nasim Nuñez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	8	3B	Jorbit Vivas	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	9	CF	Jacob Young	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TOR	1	Trey Yesavage	Starter	5.0	2	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	0.00	3.92	1.18
current	TOR	2	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	18.00	4.20	1.42
current	TOR	3	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.02	0.96
current	TOR	4	Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.40	1.28
current	TOR	5	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.51	1.07
current	WAS	1	Zack Littell	Starter	5.0	4	3	3	4	3	1	0	0	5.40	5.17	1.34
current	WAS	2	Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.13	1.20
current	WAS	3	Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.64	1.21
current	WAS	4	Riley Cornelio	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	5.89	1.85
current	WAS	5	Tom Cosgrove	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.50	1.33
simulation	TOR	1	Trey Yesavage	Starter	5.0	2	0	0	1	8	0	19	90	0.00	3.92	1.18
simulation	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	17	0.00	1.02	0.96
simulation	TOR	3	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	1.51	1.07
simulation	TOR	4	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	0	5	15	18.00	4.20	1.42
simulation	TOR	5	Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	3.40	1.28
simulation	WAS	1	Zack Littell	Starter	5.0	4	3	3	4	3	1	23	91	5.40	5.17	1.34
simulation	WAS	2	Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	0	5	20	0.00	3.13	1.20
simulation	WAS	3	Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.64	1.21
simulation	WAS	4	Tom Cosgrove	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	14	0.00	1.50	1.33
simulation	WAS	5	Riley Cornelio	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	4	30	9.00	5.89	1.85

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TOR	Trey Yesavage	Starter	5.0	0	2	1	8	19	90
TOR	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	0	0	5	15
TOR	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17
TOR	Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
TOR	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
WAS	Zack Littell	Starter	5.0	3	4	4	3	23	91
WAS	Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	2	5	20
WAS	Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	17
WAS	Riley Cornelio	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	30
WAS	Tom Cosgrove	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	4	14

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.