MLB JSON Audit Report

20260727_ARI@PIT

20260727_ARI@PIT.json • 2026-07-27

ARI 4 - PIT 2

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tim Tawa: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Ryan Waldschmidt: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Geraldo Perdomo: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Max Kepler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Gabriel Moreno: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nolan Arenado: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brandon Lowe: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Mangum: SO current=1 box=2; Esmerlyn Valdez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ryan O'Hearn: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Nick Gonzales: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jacob Gonzalez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Tyler Callihan: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match PIT pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match PIT pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=39 matches PIT BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match ARI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=34 matches ARI BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.452.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.466/0.650.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 10, PIT 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 4 - PIT 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ARI; cap=0.6, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'opponent_team': 'PIT', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-05-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 9, 'winner': 'ARI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ARI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'PIT', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'output_opponent_team': 'PIT', 'final_score_winner': 'ARI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ARI 4 - 3 PIT', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'ARI 4 - 2 PIT', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.3915, 'winner': 'ARI', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_ARI@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@PIT.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 4 - 2 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 4 - 2 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ARI, final=ARI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.548.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ARI wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-2, final 4-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ARI wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 9/10 = 0.900.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match PIT pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match PIT pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=39 matches PIT BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match ARI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=34 matches ARI BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.452.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.466/0.650.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 10, PIT 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 4 - PIT 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ARI; cap=0.6, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'opponent_team': 'PIT', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-05-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'PIT'}, {'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 9, 'winner': 'ARI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ARI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'PIT', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'output_opponent_team': 'PIT', 'final_score_winner': 'ARI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ARI 4 - 3 PIT', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'ARI 4 - 2 PIT', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.3915, 'winner': 'ARI', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_ARI@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@PIT.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 4 - 2 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 4 - 2 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ARI, final=ARI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.548.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ARI wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-2, final 4-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ARI wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 9/10 = 0.900.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tim Tawa: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Ryan Waldschmidt: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Geraldo Perdomo: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Max Kepler: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Gabriel Moreno: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nolan Arenado: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brandon Lowe: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Mangum: SO current=1 box=2; Esmerlyn Valdez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ryan O'Hearn: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Nick Gonzales: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jacob Gonzalez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Tyler Callihan: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	7.563686370849609	4.59139347076416		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	7	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.548	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	4	10
PIT	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ARI	batting	33	9	0	0	0	3	4	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	ARI	pitching		6			1		2	1	11					9.0	2	0	0
current	PIT	batting	32	9	0	0	0	2	5	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	PIT	pitching		10			1		4	2	6					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	ARI	batting	37	10	2	1	1	4	4	2	6	0	0
simulation	ARI	pitching		6			1		2	1	11					9.0	2	34	158
simulation	PIT	batting	33	6	0	0	1	2	2	1	11	0	0
simulation	PIT	pitching		10			1		4	2	6					9.0	4	39	164

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	ARI		DH	Tim Tawa	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ARI		C	Ketel Marte	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		1B	Ryan Waldschmidt	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		2B	Geraldo Perdomo	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	ARI		3B	Max Kepler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ARI		SS	Gabriel Moreno	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		LF	Nolan Arenado	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ARI		CF	Corbin Carroll	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	ARI		RF	Ildemaro Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	PIT		2B	Brandon Lowe	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		CF	Jake Mangum	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
current	PIT		LF	Bryan Reynolds	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	PIT		DH	Ryan O'Hearn	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		3B	Nick Gonzales	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	PIT		SS	Jacob Gonzalez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	PIT		1B	Tyler Callihan	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	PIT		C	Henry Davis	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	ARI	1	CF	Ryan Waldschmidt	5	5	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.600
simulation	ARI	2	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	5	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
simulation	ARI	3	2B	Ketel Marte	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.200
simulation	ARI	4	LF	Tim Tawa	4	3	1	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	ARI	5	C	Gabriel Moreno	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	6	3B	Nolan Arenado	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	7	RF	Corbin Carroll	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	ARI	8	LF	Max Kepler	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	ARI	9	1B	Ildemaro Vargas	4	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	PIT	1	CF	Jake Mangum	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	PIT	2	2B	Brandon Lowe	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	PIT	3	LF	Bryan Reynolds	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	PIT	4	RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	PIT	5	DH	Ryan O'Hearn	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	PIT	6	3B	Nick Gonzales	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	7	SS	Jacob Gonzalez	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	PIT	8	1B	Tyler Callihan	3	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.667
simulation	PIT	9	C	Henry Davis	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ARI	1	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.2	3	1	1	1	9	1	0	0	1.35	2.45	1.23
current	ARI	2	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.43
current	ARI	4	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	13.50	9.00	2.00
current	ARI	5	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
current	PIT	1	Mitch Keller	Starter	5.1	7	4	4	1	3	1	0	0	6.75	4.90	1.31
current	PIT	2	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.31	1.40
current	PIT	3	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.16	0.96
current	PIT	4	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.61	1.18
current	PIT	5	Carmen Mlodzinski	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.36	1.36
simulation	ARI	1	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.2	3	1	1	1	9	1	24	102	1.35	2.45	1.23
simulation	ARI	2	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	5	19	0.00	0.00	0.00
simulation	ARI	3	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	3	16	0.00	0.00	0.43
simulation	ARI	4	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	21	13.50	9.00	2.00
simulation	PIT	1	Mitch Keller	Starter	5.1	7	4	4	1	3	1	24	92	6.75	4.90	1.31
simulation	PIT	2	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	19	0.00	3.16	0.96
simulation	PIT	3	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	5	19	0.00	3.61	1.18
simulation	PIT	4	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	22	0.00	3.31	1.40
simulation	PIT	5	Carmen Mlodzinski	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	3	12	0.00	3.36	1.36

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ARI	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.2	1	3	1	9	24	102
ARI	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	0	1	3	16
ARI	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	21
ARI	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	1	5	19
PIT	Mitch Keller	Starter	5.1	4	7	1	3	24	92
PIT	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	22
PIT	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	19
PIT	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	1	5	19
PIT	Carmen Mlodzinski	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	1	1	1	3	12

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260727_ATL@NYM

20260727_ATL@NYM.json • 2026-07-27

ATL 6 - NYM 2

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=13; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Michael Harris II: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Drake Baldwin: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Joey Bart: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jim Jarvis: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=2; R: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Francisco Lindor: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Luis Robert Jr.: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; A.J. Ewing: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Francisco Alvarez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Jared Young: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Marcus Semien: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Tyrone Taylor: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match NYM pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=38 matches NYM BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match ATL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match ATL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=38 matches ATL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.584/0.789.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 8, NYM 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 6 - NYM 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ATL; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 4 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 4 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'opponent_team': 'NYM', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 14, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 11, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 4, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-06', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260706_NYM@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 11, 'path': '20260705_NYM@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260704_NYM@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-03', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260703_NYM@ATL.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ATL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'output_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'final_score_winner': 'ATL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 3 NYM', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'ATL 6 - 2 NYM', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.8019, 'winner': 'ATL', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_ATL@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@NYM.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 6 - 2 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 6 - 2 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ATL, final=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-2, final 6-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match NYM pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=38 matches NYM BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match ATL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match ATL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=38 matches ATL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.584/0.789.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 8, NYM 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 6 - NYM 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ATL; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 4 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 4 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'opponent_team': 'NYM', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 14, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 11, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 4, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-06', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260706_NYM@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 11, 'path': '20260705_NYM@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260704_NYM@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-03', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260703_NYM@ATL.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ATL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'output_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'final_score_winner': 'ATL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 3 NYM', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'ATL 6 - 2 NYM', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 4, 'winner_quality_edge': 1.8019, 'winner': 'ATL', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_ATL@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@NYM.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 6 - 2 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 6 - 2 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ATL, final=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-2, final 6-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=13; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Michael Harris II: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Drake Baldwin: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Mauricio Dubón: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Joey Bart: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jim Jarvis: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=2; R: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Francisco Lindor: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Luis Robert Jr.: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; A.J. Ewing: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Francisco Alvarez: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Jared Young: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Marcus Semien: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Tyrone Taylor: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	6.002901077270508	3.473334312438965		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.560	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	3	0	6	8
NYM	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ATL	batting	33	9	1	0	0	6	6	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		8			0		2	2	5					9.0	2	0	0
current	NYM	batting	32	9	0	0	0	1	0	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	NYM	pitching		8			2		6	2	13					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	ATL	batting	35	8	2	0	2	6	6	2	13	0	1
simulation	ATL	pitching		8			0		2	2	5					9.0	2	38	153
simulation	NYM	batting	35	8	1	0	0	2	2	2	5	0	1
simulation	NYM	pitching		8			2		6	2	13					9.0	6	38	165

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	ATL		CF	Michael Harris II	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		DH	Drake Baldwin	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		LF	Mauricio Dubón	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		C	Joey Bart	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ATL		SS	Jim Jarvis	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ATL		RF	Brewer Hicklen	0	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		SS	Francisco Lindor	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		CF	Luis Robert Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		RF	A.J. Ewing	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		3B	Bo Bichette	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		DH	Francisco Alvarez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		1B	Jared Young	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		2B	Marcus Semien	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		LF	Tyrone Taylor	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		C	Luis Torrens	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	ATL	1	DH	Drake Baldwin	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	2	1B	Matt Olson	5	5	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	ATL	3	2B	Ozzie Albies	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	4	CF	Michael Harris II	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	5	LF	Mauricio Dubón	4	4	3	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.750
simulation	ATL	6	3B	Austin Riley	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	7	C	Joey Bart	4	3	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	ATL	8	SS	Jim Jarvis	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	0.333
simulation	ATL	9	RF	Brewer Hicklen	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	1	RF	A.J. Ewing	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	NYM	2	SS	Francisco Lindor	5	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	NYM	3	3B	Bo Bichette	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	4	CF	Luis Robert Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	5	DH	Francisco Alvarez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	6	1B	Jared Young	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	7	LF	Tyrone Taylor	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	8	2B	Marcus Semien	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	NYM	9	C	Luis Torrens	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ATL	1	Martín Pérez	Starter	5.0	5	2	2	2	4	0	0	0	3.60	3.38	1.20
current	ATL	2	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.70	1.18
current	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.27	0.76
current	ATL	4	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.43	1.08
current	ATL	5	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.34	1.29
current	NYM	1	Zach Thornton	Starter	5.2	2	1	1	1	10	0	0	0	1.59	1.93	0.86
current	NYM	2	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.09	1.14
current	NYM	3	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	18.00	3.89	1.50
current	NYM	4	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	3	0	2	1	0	0	27.00	1.93	0.83
simulation	ATL	1	Martín Pérez	Starter	5.0	5	2	2	2	4	0	22	86	3.60	3.38	1.20
simulation	ATL	2	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	2.43	1.08
simulation	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	19	0.00	2.27	0.76
simulation	ATL	4	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	21	0.00	2.70	1.18
simulation	ATL	5	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	12	0.00	4.34	1.29
simulation	NYM	1	Zach Thornton	Starter	5.2	2	1	1	1	10	0	21	93	1.59	1.93	0.86
simulation	NYM	2	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	1	1	1	7	26	18.00	3.89	1.50
simulation	NYM	3	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	3	0	2	1	6	22	27.00	1.93	0.83
simulation	NYM	4	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	24	0.00	2.09	1.14

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ATL	Martín Pérez	Starter	5.0	2	5	2	4	22	86
ATL	Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	0	5	21
ATL	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	0	5	19
ATL	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	15
ATL	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	3	12
NYM	Zach Thornton	Starter	5.2	1	2	1	10	21	93
NYM	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	24
NYM	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	3	1	1	7	26
NYM	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	0	2	6	22

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260727_BAL@DET

20260727_BAL@DET.json • 2026-07-27

BAL 3 - DET 4

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=0, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Taylor Ward: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Dylan Beavers: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Pete Alonso: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Leody Taveras: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Coby Mayo: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jeremiah Jackson: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Chadwick Tromp: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Colt Keith: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Riley Greene: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kevin McGonigle: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: AB current=4 box=5; Hao-Yu Lee: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Spencer Torkelson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Zach McKinstry: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; James Outman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match DET pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match DET pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match DET pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=41 matches DET BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match BAL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match BAL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=38 matches BAL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.615/0.826.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 9, DET 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 3 - DET 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for DET.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_BAL@DET.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@DET.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 172.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 172.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 3 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 3 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=DET, final=DET.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: DET wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: DET wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match DET pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match DET pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match DET pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=41 matches DET BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match BAL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match BAL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=38 matches BAL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.615/0.826.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 9, DET 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 3 - DET 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for DET.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_BAL@DET.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@DET.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 172.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 172.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 3 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 3 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=DET, final=DET.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: DET wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: DET wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=0, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Taylor Ward: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Dylan Beavers: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Pete Alonso: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Leody Taveras: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Coby Mayo: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jeremiah Jackson: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Chadwick Tromp: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Colt Keith: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Riley Greene: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kevin McGonigle: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: AB current=4 box=5; Hao-Yu Lee: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Spencer Torkelson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Zach McKinstry: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; James Outman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.489645957946777	5.589691638946533		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	6		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.640	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	9
DET	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	4	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	BAL	batting	32	8	0	0	0	3	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	BAL	pitching		9				4	4	5					8.0	4	0	0
current	DET	batting	31	8	0	0	4	3	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	DET	pitching		9				3	5	10					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	BAL	batting	36	9	2	0	3	3	5	10	0	0
simulation	BAL	pitching		9				4	4	5					8.0	4	38	167
simulation	DET	batting	33	9	4	1	4	4	4	5	0	1
simulation	DET	pitching		9				3	5	10					9.0	3	41	172

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	BAL		LF	Taylor Ward	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		RF	Dylan Beavers	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		DH	Gunnar Henderson	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	BAL		1B	Pete Alonso	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		SS	Jackson Holliday	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	BAL		CF	Leody Taveras	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	BAL		3B	Coby Mayo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BAL		2B	Jeremiah Jackson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BAL		C	Chadwick Tromp	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	DET		3B	Colt Keith	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	DET		DH	Riley Greene	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		SS	Kevin McGonigle	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	DET		C	Dillon Dingler	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		2B	Hao-Yu Lee	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	DET		1B	Spencer Torkelson	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		RF	Zach McKinstry	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	DET		CF	James Outman	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	DET		LF	Matt Vierling	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	BAL	1	RF	Dylan Beavers	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	2	1B	Pete Alonso	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	BAL	3	DH	Gunnar Henderson	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	4	LF	Taylor Ward	5	5	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.600
simulation	BAL	5	CF	Leody Taveras	5	5	1	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	BAL	6	SS	Jackson Holliday	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	BAL	7	3B	Coby Mayo	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	BAL	8	2B	Jeremiah Jackson	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	BAL	9	C	Chadwick Tromp	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	DET	1	SS	Kevin McGonigle	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	DET	2	C	Dillon Dingler	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	DET	3	3B	Colt Keith	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	DET	4	DH	Riley Greene	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	DET	5	1B	Spencer Torkelson	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	DET	6	RF	Zach McKinstry	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	DET	7	2B	Hao-Yu Lee	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	DET	8	CF	James Outman	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	DET	9	LF	Matt Vierling	4	4	2	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	BAL	1	Kyle Bradish	Starter	6.0	7	3	3	2	3	0	0	4.50	3.49	1.32
current	BAL	2	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.00	3.00	0.89
current	BAL	3	Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.82	1.00
current	BAL	4	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0		3.64	1.38
current	BAL	5	Grant Wolfram	Middle Reliever	0.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0		3.82	1.24
current	BAL	6	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0		2.08	0.89
current	DET	1	Keider Montero	Starter	5.0	6	2	2	5	7	0	0	3.60	3.14	0.96
current	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	3.25	1.16
current	DET	3	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.15	1.37
current	DET	4	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.87	1.30
current	DET	5	Drew Anderson	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	9.00	4.25	1.33
simulation	BAL	1	Kyle Bradish	Starter	6.0	7	3	3	2	3	27	105	4.50	3.49	1.32
simulation	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	1	13		3.64	1.38
simulation	BAL	3	Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	9	0.00	2.82	1.00
simulation	BAL	4	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	3	15	0.00	3.00	0.89
simulation	BAL	5	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	1	0	1	11		2.08	0.89
simulation	BAL	6	Grant Wolfram	Middle Reliever	0.0	2	1	1	0	0	3	14		3.82	1.24
simulation	DET	1	Keider Montero	Starter	5.0	6	2	2	5	7	26	102	3.60	3.14	0.96
simulation	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	17	0.00	3.25	1.16
simulation	DET	3	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	2.15	1.37
simulation	DET	4	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	2.87	1.30
simulation	DET	5	Drew Anderson	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	4	21	9.00	4.25	1.33

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
BAL	Kyle Bradish	Starter	6.0	3	7	2	3	27	105
BAL	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	15
BAL	Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	9
BAL	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	1	0	1	13
BAL	Grant Wolfram	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	2	0	0	3	14
BAL	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	1	0	1	11
DET	Keider Montero	Starter	5.0	2	6	5	7	26	102
DET	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17
DET	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
DET	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
DET	Drew Anderson	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	2	4	21

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260727_BOS@OAK

20260727_BOS@OAK.json • 2026-07-27

BOS 5 - OAK 2

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Masataka Yoshida: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Curtis Mead: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Wilyer Abreu: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ceddanne Rafaela: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Caleb Durbin: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jarren Duran: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Andruw Monasterio: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Connor Wong: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=0, sim=2; R: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonah Heim: SO current=1 box=2; Jacob Wilson: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Tyler Soderstrom: H current=1 box=0; Colby Thomas: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Tommy White: H current=1 box=2; Alika Williams: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Henry Bolte: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match OAK pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match OAK pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=36 matches OAK BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match BOS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match BOS pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=35 matches BOS BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.438/0.617.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 5, OAK 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 5 - OAK 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for BOS.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_BOS@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@OAK.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 148.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 148.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 5 - 2 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 5 - 2 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=BOS, final=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match OAK pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match OAK pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=36 matches OAK BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match BOS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match BOS pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=35 matches BOS BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.438/0.617.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 5, OAK 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 5 - OAK 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for BOS.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_BOS@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@OAK.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 148.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 148.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 5 - 2 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 5 - 2 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=BOS, final=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Masataka Yoshida: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Curtis Mead: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Wilyer Abreu: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ceddanne Rafaela: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Caleb Durbin: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jarren Duran: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Andruw Monasterio: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Connor Wong: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=0, sim=2; R: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonah Heim: SO current=1 box=2; Jacob Wilson: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Tyler Soderstrom: H current=1 box=0; Colby Thomas: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Tommy White: H current=1 box=2; Alika Williams: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Henry Bolte: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.302678108215332	5.641607761383057		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	6		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	1	0.660	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	1		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	1		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	1		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	0	5	5
OAK	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	BOS	batting	31	9	0	0	0	4	4	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	BOS	pitching		6			2		2	1	7					9.0	2	0	0
current	OAK	batting	32	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		5			2		5	3	5					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	BOS	batting	32	5	0	0	2	5	5	3	5	0	1
simulation	BOS	pitching		6			2		2	1	7					9.0	2	35	142
simulation	OAK	batting	33	6	1	0	2	2	2	1	7	0	1
simulation	OAK	pitching		5			2		5	3	5					9.0	5	36	148

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	BOS		DH	Masataka Yoshida	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	BOS		2B	Curtis Mead	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		RF	Wilyer Abreu	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		3B	Caleb Durbin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		LF	Jarren Duran	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		SS	Andruw Monasterio	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		C	Connor Wong	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		1B	Willson Contreras	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		C	Jonah Heim	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		SS	Jacob Wilson	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
current	OAK		DH	Tyler Soderstrom	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		LF	Colby Thomas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		3B	Tommy White	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	OAK		2B	Alika Williams	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		1B	Jeff McNeil	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	OAK		CF	Henry Bolte	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	OAK		RF	Lawrence Butler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	BOS	1	DH	Masataka Yoshida	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	2	2B	Curtis Mead	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	BOS	3	1B	Willson Contreras	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	BOS	4	RF	Wilyer Abreu	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	5	CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	BOS	6	3B	Caleb Durbin	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	7	LF	Jarren Duran	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	8	SS	Andruw Monasterio	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	9	C	Connor Wong	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	1	SS	Jacob Wilson	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	2	DH	Tyler Soderstrom	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	3	C	Jonah Heim	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	4	LF	Colby Thomas	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	OAK	5	3B	Tommy White	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	OAK	6	1B	Jeff McNeil	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	7	CF	Henry Bolte	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	8	2B	Alika Williams	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	9	RF	Lawrence Butler	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	BOS	1	Payton Tolle	Starter	5.1	3	1	1	1	6	1	0	0	1.69	3.31	1.10
current	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.07	1.13
current	BOS	3	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.13	0.89
current	BOS	4	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	4.91	1.40
current	OAK	1	Jack Perkins	Starter	4.0	4	3	3	2	3	1	0	0	6.75	6.75	1.42
current	OAK	2	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	13.50	3.26	1.34
current	OAK	3	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	5.40	1.23
current	OAK	4	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.15	1.49
current	OAK	5	José Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.25	1.42
simulation	BOS	1	Payton Tolle	Starter	5.1	3	1	1	1	6	1	21	86	1.69	3.31	1.10
simulation	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	21	0.00	1.07	1.13
simulation	BOS	3	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	2.13	0.89
simulation	BOS	4	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	1	5	19	9.00	4.91	1.40
simulation	OAK	1	Jack Perkins	Starter	4.0	4	3	3	2	3	1	18	71	6.75	6.75	1.42
simulation	OAK	2	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	21	0.00	3.15	1.49
simulation	OAK	3	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	17	0.00	5.40	1.23
simulation	OAK	4	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	2	2	1	0	1	6	23	13.50	3.26	1.34
simulation	OAK	5	José Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	4.25	1.42

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
BOS	Payton Tolle	Starter	5.1	1	3	1	6	21	86
BOS	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	21
BOS	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
BOS	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	19
OAK	Jack Perkins	Starter	4.0	3	4	2	3	18	71
OAK	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	1	1	0	6	23
OAK	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17
OAK	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	21
OAK	José Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260727_CHC@STL

20260727_CHC@STL.json • 2026-07-27

CHC 1 - STL 3

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=1; R: current=6, sim=1; BB: current=2, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alex Bregman: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Carson Kelly: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Seiya Suzuki: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Michael Busch: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Dansby Swanson: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jordan Walker: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; JJ Wetherholt: AB current=5 box=4, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Iván Herrera: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nelson Velázquez: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; José Fermín: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Masyn Winn: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Lars Nootbaar: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match STL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match STL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=36 matches STL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match CHC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match CHC pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=37 matches CHC BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 4 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 4.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.150/0.500.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 4, STL 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 1 - STL 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for STL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.51, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.5163941212711489, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260705_STL@CHC.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260704_STL@CHC.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-03', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260703_STL@CHC.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_CHC@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@STL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 133.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 133.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 1 - 3 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 1 - 3 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 3-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=STL, final=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: STL wins 3-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 1-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 1-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 1-3, final 1-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 4.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 3-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match STL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match STL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=36 matches STL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match CHC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match CHC pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=37 matches CHC BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 4 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 4.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.150/0.500.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 4, STL 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 1 - STL 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for STL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.51, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-05', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.5163941212711489, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260705_STL@CHC.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-04', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260704_STL@CHC.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-03', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260703_STL@CHC.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_CHC@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@STL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 133.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 133.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 1 - 3 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 1 - 3 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 3-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=STL, final=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: STL wins 3-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 1-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 1-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 1-3, final 1-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 4.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 3-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=1; R: current=6, sim=1; BB: current=2, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alex Bregman: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Carson Kelly: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Seiya Suzuki: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Michael Busch: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Pete Crow-Armstrong: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Dansby Swanson: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jordan Walker: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; JJ Wetherholt: AB current=5 box=4, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Iván Herrera: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nelson Velázquez: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; José Fermín: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Masyn Winn: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Lars Nootbaar: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	7.376705646514893	7.345560550689697		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	8	7		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	2	1	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	2	2		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	1	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	4
STL	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	3	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHC	batting	33	9	0	0	0	3	6	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	CHC	pitching		10			1		3	3	4					8.0	3	0	0
current	STL	batting	33	9	0	0	0	2	4	0	7	0	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		4			0		1	4	8					9.0	1	0	0
simulation	CHC	batting	31	4	1	0	0	1	1	4	8	0	1
simulation	CHC	pitching		10			1		3	3	4					8.0	3	37	133
simulation	STL	batting	34	10	1	0	1	3	3	3	4	0	0
simulation	STL	pitching		4			0		1	4	8					9.0	1	36	159

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	CHC		3B	Alex Bregman	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		DH	Carson Kelly	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHC		RF	Seiya Suzuki	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		1B	Michael Busch	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		LF	Ian Happ	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		2B	Nico Hoerner	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	CHC		CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		SS	Dansby Swanson	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHC		C	Miguel Amaya	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	STL		RF	Jordan Walker	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		2B	JJ Wetherholt	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	STL		C	Iván Herrera	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		DH	Nelson Velázquez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	STL		1B	Alec Burleson	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		CF	José Fermín	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	STL		SS	Masyn Winn	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		LF	Lars Nootbaar	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	STL		3B	Blaze Jordan	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	CHC	1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	3	3B	Alex Bregman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	4	DH	Carson Kelly	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	5	1B	Michael Busch	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	6	2B	Nico Hoerner	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	CHC	7	LF	Ian Happ	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	8	SS	Dansby Swanson	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	9	C	Miguel Amaya	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	STL	1	2B	JJ Wetherholt	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	STL	2	RF	Jordan Walker	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	STL	3	C	Iván Herrera	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	STL	4	1B	Alec Burleson	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	STL	5	SS	Masyn Winn	4	4	2	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	STL	6	DH	Nelson Velázquez	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.000
simulation	STL	7	CF	José Fermín	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	STL	8	LF	Lars Nootbaar	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	STL	9	3B	Blaze Jordan	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHC	1	David Peterson	Starter	5.0	6	3	3	2	1	1	0	0	5.40	5.97	1.56
current	CHC	3	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.32	1.00
current	CHC	4	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.84	1.31
current	CHC	6	Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.77	1.16
current	STL	1	Matthew Liberatore	Starter	4.2	4	1	1	2	7	0	0	0	1.93	5.18	1.52
current	STL	2	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.50	1.10
current	STL	3	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.67	1.22
current	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.24	1.39
simulation	CHC	1	David Peterson	Starter	5.0	6	3	3	2	1	1	23	89	5.40	5.97	1.56
simulation	CHC	2	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	2	0	6	12	0.00	2.84	1.31
simulation	CHC	3	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	5	19	0.00	2.32	1.00
simulation	CHC	4	Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	3.77	1.16
simulation	STL	1	Matthew Liberatore	Starter	4.2	4	1	1	2	7	0	21	95	1.93	5.18	1.52
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	21	0.00	3.67	1.22
simulation	STL	3	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	22	0.00	3.50	1.10
simulation	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	0	5	21	0.00	4.24	1.39

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHC	David Peterson	Starter	5.0	3	6	2	1	23	89
CHC	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	1	5	19
CHC	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	2	6	12
CHC	Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	0	0	3	13
STL	Matthew Liberatore	Starter	4.2	1	4	2	7	21	95
STL	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	22
STL	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	21
STL	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	2	1	5	21

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260727_CLE@CIN

20260727_CLE@CIN.json • 2026-07-27

CLE 3 - CIN 5

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Bleday: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Tyler Stephenson: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Edwin Arroyo: AB current=3 box=4; Nathaniel Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Dane Myers: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Travis Bazzana: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Chase DeLauter: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Steven Kwan: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; José Ramírez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kyle Manzardo: AB current=3 box=4; Gabriel Arias: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Brayan Rocchio: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Patrick Bailey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match CLE pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match CLE pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=36 matches CLE BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match CIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match CIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match CIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=37 matches CIN BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.443/0.622.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 5, CIN 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 3 - CIN 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CIN; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CIN', 'opponent_team': 'CLE', 'h2h_net_margin': -9, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -7, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-05-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-05-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CIN', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 5 CIN', 'winner': 'CIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.5167, 'winner': 'CIN', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_CLE@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@CIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 3 - 5 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 3 - 5 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CIN wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CIN, final=CIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CIN wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CIN wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CIN wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match CLE pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match CLE pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=36 matches CLE BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match CIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match CIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match CIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=37 matches CIN BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.443/0.622.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 5, CIN 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 3 - CIN 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CIN; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CIN', 'opponent_team': 'CLE', 'h2h_net_margin': -9, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -7, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-05-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-05-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CIN', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'CLE', 'final_score_winner': 'CIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 CIN', 'winner': 'CIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 5 CIN', 'winner': 'CIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 2, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.5167, 'winner': 'CIN', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_CLE@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@CIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 3 - 5 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 3 - 5 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CIN wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CIN, final=CIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CIN wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CIN wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CIN wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Bleday: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Tyler Stephenson: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Edwin Arroyo: AB current=3 box=4; Nathaniel Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Dane Myers: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Travis Bazzana: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Chase DeLauter: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Steven Kwan: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; José Ramírez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kyle Manzardo: AB current=3 box=4; Gabriel Arias: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Brayan Rocchio: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Patrick Bailey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.311417102813721	5.513273239135742		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	3	5
CIN	0	3	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	5	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CLE	batting	32	9	0	0	0	1	1	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		10			1		5	2	7					8.0	5	0	0
current	CIN	batting	32	9	0	0	0	3	3	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	CIN	pitching		5			0		3	5	9					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	CLE	batting	32	5	2	0	0	3	3	5	9	0	0
simulation	CLE	pitching		10			1		5	2	7					8.0	5	36	145
simulation	CIN	batting	33	10	2	0	1	5	5	2	7	1	0
simulation	CIN	pitching		5			0		3	5	9					9.0	3	37	160

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	CLE		2B	Travis Bazzana	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	CLE		RF	Chase DeLauter	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		LF	Steven Kwan	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	CLE		DH	José Ramírez	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		1B	Kyle Manzardo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		3B	Gabriel Arias	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		C	Patrick Bailey	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		CF	Petey Halpin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CIN		RF	JJ Bleday	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	CIN		SS	Elly De La Cruz	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.200
current	CIN		3B	Eugenio Suárez	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CIN		1B	Sal Stewart	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CIN		C	Tyler Stephenson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CIN		2B	Edwin Arroyo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CIN		DH	Nathaniel Lowe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CIN		CF	Dane Myers	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CIN		LF	TJ Friedl	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	CLE	1	LF	Steven Kwan	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	2	DH	José Ramírez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	3	RF	Chase DeLauter	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	4	2B	Travis Bazzana	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	CLE	5	SS	Brayan Rocchio	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	CLE	6	1B	Kyle Manzardo	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CLE	7	3B	Gabriel Arias	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	CLE	8	C	Patrick Bailey	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	CLE	9	CF	Petey Halpin	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CIN	1	SS	Elly De La Cruz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CIN	2	1B	Sal Stewart	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	CIN	3	RF	JJ Bleday	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CIN	4	3B	Eugenio Suárez	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	CIN	5	DH	Nathaniel Lowe	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.500
simulation	CIN	6	C	Tyler Stephenson	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	CIN	7	CF	Dane Myers	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	8	2B	Edwin Arroyo	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CIN	9	LF	TJ Friedl	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CLE	1	Slade Cecconi	Starter	5.0	9	5	5	0	5	1	0	0	9.00	4.60	1.45
current	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.62	1.06
current	CLE	3	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.57	0.80
current	CLE	4	Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.67	1.22
current	CIN	1	Chase Burns	Starter	6.0	3	1	1	4	6	0	0	0	1.50	2.42	1.11
current	CIN	2	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.66	1.30
current	CIN	3	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	18.00	5.31	1.23
current	CIN	4	Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.25	0.97
simulation	CLE	1	Slade Cecconi	Starter	5.0	9	5	5	0	5	1	24	94	9.00	4.60	1.45
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.62	1.06
simulation	CLE	3	Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.67	1.22
simulation	CLE	4	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	0	5	21	0.00	1.57	0.80
simulation	CIN	1	Chase Burns	Starter	6.0	3	1	1	4	6	0	25	108	1.50	2.42	1.11
simulation	CIN	2	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	0	6	23	18.00	5.31	1.23
simulation	CIN	3	Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	2.25	0.97
simulation	CIN	4	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	14	0.00	2.66	1.30

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CLE	Slade Cecconi	Starter	5.0	5	9	0	5	24	94
CLE	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
CLE	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	2	1	5	21
CLE	Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	0	0	3	13
CIN	Chase Burns	Starter	6.0	1	3	4	6	25	108
CIN	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	14
CIN	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	1	1	6	23
CIN	Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	15

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260727_HOU@LAA

20260727_HOU@LAA.json • 2026-07-27

HOU 2 - LAA 5

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=14; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; LaMonte Wade Jr.: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Jeremy Peña: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=4; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Lucas Spence: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=4; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=2, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Zach Neto: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=1; Jorge Soler: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Nolan Schanuel: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Denzer Guzman: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jo Adell: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match LAA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 14.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=34 matches LAA BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match HOU pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match HOU pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match HOU pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=35 matches HOU BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.466/0.650.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 4, LAA 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 2 - LAA 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAA; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'opponent_team': 'HOU', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-06-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-06-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 9, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-06-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'HOU'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'output_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'final_score_winner': 'LAA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'HOU 3 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 2 - 5 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.3086, 'winner': 'LAA', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_HOU@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@LAA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 2 - 5 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 2 - 5 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAA wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=LAA, final=LAA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAA wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAA wins 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-5.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-5, final 2-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAA wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match LAA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 14.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=34 matches LAA BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match HOU pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match HOU pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match HOU pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=35 matches HOU BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.466/0.650.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 4, LAA 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 2 - LAA 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAA; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'opponent_team': 'HOU', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-06-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-06-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 9, 'winner': 'LAA'}, {'date': '2026-06-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'HOU'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'output_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'final_score_winner': 'LAA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'HOU 3 - 4 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 2 - 5 LAA', 'winner': 'LAA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.3086, 'winner': 'LAA', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_HOU@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@LAA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 2 - 5 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 2 - 5 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAA wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=LAA, final=LAA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAA wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAA wins 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-5.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-5, final 2-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAA wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=14; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; LaMonte Wade Jr.: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Jeremy Peña: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=4; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Lucas Spence: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=4; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=2, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Zach Neto: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=1; Jorge Soler: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Nolan Schanuel: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Josh Lowe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Denzer Guzman: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jo Adell: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.511332988739014	7.3958210945129395		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	8		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.600	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	4
LAA	0	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	5	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	HOU	batting	33	9	0	0	0	4	3	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	HOU	pitching		8			4		5	3	9					8.0	5	0	0
current	LAA	batting	35	9	0	0	0	3	2	1	10	0	0	0	0
current	LAA	pitching		4			1		2	2	14					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	HOU	batting	31	4	2	0	1	2	2	2	14	0	1
simulation	HOU	pitching		8			4		5	3	9					8.0	5	35	155
simulation	LAA	batting	32	8	2	0	4	5	5	3	9	0	0
simulation	LAA	pitching		4			1		2	2	14					9.0	2	34	164

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	HOU		DH	Yordan Alvarez	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		RF	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	HOU		SS	Jeremy Peña	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		3B	Isaac Paredes	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		2B	Jose Altuve	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		LF	Taylor Trammell	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	HOU		1B	Christian Walker	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		CF	Lucas Spence	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		C	Christian Vázquez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		CF	Mike Trout	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		SS	Zach Neto	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.200
current	LAA		DH	Jorge Soler	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		1B	Nolan Schanuel	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		LF	Josh Lowe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		2B	Vaughn Grissom	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		3B	Denzer Guzman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		RF	Jo Adell	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		C	Tyler Heineman	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	HOU	1	SS	Jeremy Peña	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	3	3B	Isaac Paredes	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	4	RF	LaMonte Wade Jr.	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	HOU	5	2B	Jose Altuve	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	6	LF	Taylor Trammell	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	7	1B	Christian Walker	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	8	CF	Lucas Spence	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.333
simulation	HOU	9	C	Christian Vázquez	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	1	SS	Zach Neto	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	2	CF	Mike Trout	4	2	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	LAA	3	1B	Nolan Schanuel	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	4	DH	Jorge Soler	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	5	2B	Vaughn Grissom	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	LAA	6	LF	Josh Lowe	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	7	RF	Jo Adell	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	8	3B	Denzer Guzman	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	LAA	9	C	Tyler Heineman	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	HOU	1	Tatsuya Imai	Starter	4.1	7	5	5	3	2	4	0	0	10.38	5.59	1.47
current	HOU	3	Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	0.90	0.75
current	HOU	4	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.09	0.83
current	HOU	6	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	5.05	1.54
current	LAA	1	Walbert Urena	Starter	5.2	1	1	1	1	9	0	0	0	1.59	2.78	1.31
current	LAA	2	Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.28	1.05
current	LAA	3	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	9.00	3.67	1.18
current	LAA	4	Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.33	1.28
simulation	HOU	1	Tatsuya Imai	Starter	4.1	7	5	5	3	2	4	23	100	10.38	5.59	1.47
simulation	HOU	2	Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	15	0.00	0.90	0.75
simulation	HOU	3	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	5	22	0.00	2.09	0.83
simulation	HOU	4	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	18	0.00	5.05	1.54
simulation	LAA	1	Walbert Urena	Starter	5.2	1	1	1	1	9	0	20	105	1.59	2.78	1.31
simulation	LAA	2	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	1	5	19	9.00	3.67	1.18
simulation	LAA	3	Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	6	24	0.00	3.28	1.05
simulation	LAA	4	Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	16	0.00	4.33	1.28

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
HOU	Tatsuya Imai	Starter	4.1	5	7	3	2	23	100
HOU	Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	3	3	15
HOU	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	2	5	22
HOU	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	18
LAA	Walbert Urena	Starter	5.2	1	1	1	9	20	105
LAA	Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	1	6	24
LAA	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	2	5	19
LAA	Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260727_MIL@SF

20260727_MIL@SF.json • 2026-07-27

MIL 6 - SF 3

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brice Turang: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Christian Yelich: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jake Bauers: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; William Contreras: BB current=0 box=1; Andrew Vaughn: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Garrett Mitchell: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Rafael Devers: HR current=0 box=1; Bryce Eldridge: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Heliot Ramos: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Casey Schmitt: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Drew Gilbert: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Grant McCray: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Willy Adames: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match SF pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match SF pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=42 matches SF BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match MIL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=35 matches MIL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.424/0.600.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 10, SF 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 6 - SF 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.6, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-06-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-06-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-06-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 6 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 2.149, 'winner': 'MIL', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_MIL@SF.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@SF.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 128.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 191.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 128.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 191.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 6 - 3 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 6 - 3 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIL, final=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIL wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-3, final 6-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match SF pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match SF pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=42 matches SF BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match MIL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=35 matches MIL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.424/0.600.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 10, SF 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 6 - SF 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.6, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-06-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-06-03', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-06-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SF', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'SF', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 6 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': 2.149, 'winner': 'MIL', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_MIL@SF.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@SF.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 128.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 191.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 128.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 191.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 6 - 3 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 6 - 3 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIL, final=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIL wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-3, final 6-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brice Turang: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Christian Yelich: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jake Bauers: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; William Contreras: BB current=0 box=1; Andrew Vaughn: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Garrett Mitchell: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Cooper Pratt: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Rafael Devers: HR current=0 box=1; Bryce Eldridge: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Heliot Ramos: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Casey Schmitt: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Drew Gilbert: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Grant McCray: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Willy Adames: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	7.8606462478637695	4.273708820343018		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	8	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.600	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	3	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	6	10
SF	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIL	batting	33	9	0	0	0	6	6	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIL	pitching		6			1		3	1	4					9.0	3	0	0
current	SF	batting	34	9	0	0	0	3	1	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		10			3		6	5	4					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	MIL	batting	37	10	3	0	3	6	6	5	4	0	0
simulation	MIL	pitching		6			1		3	1	4					9.0	3	35	128
simulation	SF	batting	33	6	2	0	1	3	3	1	4	0	1
simulation	SF	pitching		10			3		6	5	4					9.0	6	42	191

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	MIL		2B	Brice Turang	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		LF	Jackson Chourio	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	MIL		DH	Christian Yelich	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		RF	Jake Bauers	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		C	William Contreras	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		1B	Andrew Vaughn	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIL		CF	Garrett Mitchell	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		SS	Cooper Pratt	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		3B	Joey Ortiz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		1B	Rafael Devers	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		DH	Bryce Eldridge	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	SF		LF	Heliot Ramos	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		2B	Luis Arraez	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	SF		3B	Casey Schmitt	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		CF	Drew Gilbert	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		RF	Grant McCray	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.333
current	SF		SS	Willy Adames	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		C	Jesus Rodriguez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	MIL	1	DH	Christian Yelich	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	2	LF	Jackson Chourio	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	MIL	3	2B	Brice Turang	5	4	2	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	MIL	4	C	William Contreras	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	5	RF	Jake Bauers	5	5	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	MIL	6	1B	Andrew Vaughn	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	7	CF	Garrett Mitchell	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	8	SS	Cooper Pratt	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	9	3B	Joey Ortiz	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SF	1	2B	Luis Arraez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SF	2	LF	Heliot Ramos	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SF	3	DH	Bryce Eldridge	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SF	4	1B	Rafael Devers	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SF	5	3B	Casey Schmitt	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	6	CF	Drew Gilbert	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SF	7	SS	Willy Adames	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	SF	8	RF	Grant McCray	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	9	C	Jesus Rodriguez	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIL	1	Brandon Sproat	Starter	5.0	4	3	3	1	2	1	0	0	5.40	5.09	1.38
current	MIL	2	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.30	1.40
current	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.38	1.06
current	MIL	5	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.06	0.94
current	SF	1	Tyler Mahle	Starter	5.0	6	5	5	4	2	2	0	0	9.00	5.31	1.45
current	SF	2	JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.74	1.14
current	SF	3	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	3.92	1.23
current	SF	4	Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.67	1.35
current	SF	5	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.38	1.15
current	SF	6	Sam Hentges	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.66	1.57
simulation	MIL	1	Brandon Sproat	Starter	5.0	4	3	3	1	2	1	20	86	5.40	5.09	1.38
simulation	MIL	2	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.2	2	0	0	0	0	0	7	7	0.00	2.06	0.94
simulation	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.38	1.06
simulation	MIL	4	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	18	0.00	3.30	1.40
simulation	SF	1	Tyler Mahle	Starter	5.0	6	5	5	4	2	2	25	103	9.00	5.31	1.45
simulation	SF	2	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	1	5	19	9.00	3.92	1.23
simulation	SF	3	Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	16	0.00	2.67	1.35
simulation	SF	4	JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	0	0	6	25	0.00	2.74	1.14
simulation	SF	5	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	16	0.00	3.38	1.15
simulation	SF	6	Sam Hentges	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	12	0.00	2.66	1.57

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIL	Brandon Sproat	Starter	5.0	3	4	1	2	20	86
MIL	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	4	18
MIL	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
MIL	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	2	0	0	7	7
SF	Tyler Mahle	Starter	5.0	5	6	4	2	25	103
SF	JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	0	6	25
SF	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	0	5	19
SF	Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
SF	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	1	0	1	2	16
SF	Sam Hentges	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	12

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260727_NYY@CHW

20260727_NYY@CHW.json • 2026-07-27

NYY 2 - CHW 1

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=3; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=1; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Chase Meidroth: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Tristan Peters: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Drew Romo: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Sam Antonacci: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=3, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Paul Goldschmidt: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Max Schuemann: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jasson Domínguez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Anthony Volpe: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Ben Rice: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; José Caballero: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Spencer Jones: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match NYY pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match NYY pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=35 matches NYY BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match CHW pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match CHW pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=34 matches CHW BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 3 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 3.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.549/0.748.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 4, CHW 3.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 2 - CHW 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYY.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_NYY@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@CHW.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 161.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 161.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 2 - 1 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 2 - 1 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 2-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYY, final=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYY wins 2-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 2-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-1.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-1, final 2-1 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 3.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 2-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match NYY pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match NYY pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=35 matches NYY BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match CHW pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match CHW pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=34 matches CHW BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 3 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 3.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.549/0.748.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 4, CHW 3.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 2 - CHW 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYY.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_NYY@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@CHW.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 161.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 161.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 2 - 1 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 2 - 1 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 2-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYY, final=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYY wins 2-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 2-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-1.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-1, final 2-1 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 3.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 2-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=8, sim=3; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=1; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Chase Meidroth: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Tristan Peters: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Drew Romo: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Sam Antonacci: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=3, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Paul Goldschmidt: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Max Schuemann: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jasson Domínguez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Anthony Volpe: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Ben Rice: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; José Caballero: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Spencer Jones: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.524232864379883	3.4571077823638916		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	3		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	2	1	0.640	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	2	1		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2	1		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2	1		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	1		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	NYY	batting	31	9	0	0	0	2	3	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	NYY	pitching		3			0		1	5	6					9.0	1	0	0
current	CHW	batting	32	8	0	0	0	3	5	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	CHW	pitching		4			1		2	3	6					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	NYY	batting	31	4	1	0	1	2	2	3	6	0	0
simulation	NYY	pitching		3			0		1	5	6					9.0	1	35	161
simulation	CHW	batting	30	3	1	0	0	1	1	5	6	0	0
simulation	CHW	pitching		4			1		2	3	6					9.0	2	34	141

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	NYY		1B	Paul Goldschmidt	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		LF	Max Schuemann	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		RF	Jasson Domínguez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		SS	Anthony Volpe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		DH	Ben Rice	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		3B	José Caballero	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		CF	Spencer Jones	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		C	Ali Sánchez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		DH	Chase Meidroth	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		C	Tristan Peters	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		1B	Colson Montgomery	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		2B	Munetaka Murakami	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		3B	Braden Montgomery	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		SS	Drew Romo	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	CHW		LF	Sam Antonacci	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		CF	Miguel Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		RF	Andrew Benintendi	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
simulation	NYY	1	LF	Max Schuemann	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	NYY	2	DH	Ben Rice	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	NYY	3	1B	Paul Goldschmidt	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	4	RF	Jasson Domínguez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	NYY	5	SS	Anthony Volpe	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	6	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	NYY	7	3B	José Caballero	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	NYY	8	CF	Spencer Jones	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	9	C	Ali Sánchez	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CHW	1	CF	Tristan Peters	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	CHW	2	SS	Colson Montgomery	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	CHW	3	2B	Chase Meidroth	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	4	IF	Munetaka Murakami	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	CHW	5	C	Drew Romo	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	6	3B	Miguel Vargas	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	7	OF	Braden Montgomery	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CHW	8	SS	Sam Antonacci	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CHW	9	DH	Andrew Benintendi	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	NYY	1	Max Fried	Starter	6.0	1	0	0	3	5	0	0	0	0.00	2.97	0.96
current	NYY	2	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.38	1.08
current	NYY	3	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.42	1.05
current	NYY	4	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	2.51	1.33
current	CHW	1	Davis Martin	Starter	6.0	3	1	1	3	6	1	0	0	1.50	3.31	1.19
current	CHW	2	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.57	1.35
current	CHW	3	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.42	1.26
current	CHW	5	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	7.71	1.71
simulation	NYY	1	Max Fried	Starter	6.0	1	0	0	3	5	0	22	102	0.00	2.97	0.96
simulation	NYY	2	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	19	0.00	2.42	1.05
simulation	NYY	3	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	5	19	9.00	2.51	1.33
simulation	NYY	4	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	21	0.00	1.38	1.08
simulation	CHW	1	Davis Martin	Starter	6.0	3	1	1	3	6	1	24	97	1.50	3.31	1.19
simulation	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	18	0.00	1.42	1.26
simulation	CHW	3	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	3	11	9.00	7.71	1.71
simulation	CHW	4	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	15	0.00	1.57	1.35

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
NYY	Max Fried	Starter	6.0	0	1	3	5	22	102
NYY	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	2	0	5	21
NYY	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	19
NYY	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	0	5	19
CHW	Davis Martin	Starter	6.0	1	3	3	6	24	97
CHW	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	15
CHW	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	18
CHW	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	11

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260727_PHI@MIA

20260727_PHI@MIA.json • 2026-07-27

PHI 4 - MIA 3

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Xavier Edwards: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Otto Lopez: AB current=5 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Griffin Conine: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Javier Sanoja: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Trea Turner: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Bryce Harper: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Marsh: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Alec Bohm: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Gabriel Rincones Jr.: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match PHI pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match PHI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=41 matches PHI BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match MIA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match MIA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=44 matches MIA BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.570.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.570.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.430.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.466/0.650.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PHI 8, MIA 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PHI 4 - MIA 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.57, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.57, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-06-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -8, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-06-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-06-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 7, 'winner': 'PHI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PHI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 2 MIA', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 MIA', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0519, 'winner': 'PHI', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_PHI@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PHI@MIA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 184.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 184.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 4 - 3 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PHI 4 - 3 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=PHI, final=PHI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.570.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 0/10 (0.000).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PHI wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 0/10 = 0.000.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match PHI pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match PHI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=41 matches PHI BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match MIA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match MIA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=44 matches MIA BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.570.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.570.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.430.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.466/0.650.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PHI 8, MIA 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PHI 4 - MIA 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.57, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.57, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-06-17', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -8, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-06-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-06-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 7, 'winner': 'PHI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PHI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 2 MIA', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PHI 4 - 3 MIA', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 2, 'final_margin': 1, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.0519, 'winner': 'PHI', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_PHI@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PHI@MIA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 184.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 184.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 4 - 3 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PHI 4 - 3 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=PHI, final=PHI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.570.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 0/10 (0.000).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PHI wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 4-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 0/10 = 0.000.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Xavier Edwards: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Otto Lopez: AB current=5 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Griffin Conine: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Javier Sanoja: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Trea Turner: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Bryce Harper: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Marsh: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Alec Bohm: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Gabriel Rincones Jr.: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.69513463973999	3.4353489875793457		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.570	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	2		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	2		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	2		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
PHI	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	4	8
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	PHI	batting	34	9	0	0	4	4	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	PHI	pitching		7				3	4	5					10.0	3	0	0
current	MIA	batting	34	9	0	0	1	2	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIA	pitching		8				4	4	8					10.0	4	0	0
simulation	PHI	batting	38	8	3	0	4	4	4	8	0	2
simulation	PHI	pitching		7				3	4	5					10.0	3	41	184
simulation	MIA	batting	37	7	2	1	3	3	4	5	0	0
simulation	MIA	pitching		8				4	4	8					10.0	4	44	171

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	PHI		SS	Trea Turner	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	PHI		DH	Kyle Schwarber	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		1B	Bryce Harper	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		LF	Brandon Marsh	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		2B	Bryson Stott	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		3B	Alec Bohm	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		C	J.T. Realmuto	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	PHI		RF	Gabriel Rincones Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	PHI		CF	Justin Crawford	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		1B	Kyle Stowers	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		2B	Xavier Edwards	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		LF	Heriberto Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		SS	Otto Lopez	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	MIA		RF	Griffin Conine	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		CF	Jakob Marsee	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		DH	Liam Hicks	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		3B	Javier Sanoja	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIA		C	Joe Mack	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	PHI	1	SS	Trea Turner	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	PHI	2	DH	Kyle Schwarber	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	3	1B	Bryce Harper	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	PHI	4	LF	Brandon Marsh	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	5	3B	Alec Bohm	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	6	2B	Bryson Stott	5	3	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	2	0.667
simulation	PHI	7	C	J.T. Realmuto	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	8	RF	Gabriel Rincones Jr.	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	9	CF	Justin Crawford	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	1	SS	Otto Lopez	5	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	2	1B	Kyle Stowers	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	3	LF	Heriberto Hernández	5	5	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	4	2B	Xavier Edwards	5	5	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.600
simulation	MIA	5	DH	Liam Hicks	5	3	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIA	6	RF	Griffin Conine	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	7	CF	Jakob Marsee	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	8	3B	Javier Sanoja	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	9	C	Joe Mack	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	PHI	1	Zack Wheeler	Starter	6.1	2	0	0	3	5	0	0	0.00	2.16	0.88
current	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.77	0.80
current	PHI	3	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.75	1.25
current	PHI	4	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.00	6.16	1.58
current	PHI	7	Brian Keller	Reliever	0.0	2	2	2	1	0	0	0
current	MIA	1	Tyler Phillips	Starter	5.0	2	0	0	2	4	0	0	0.00	3.52	1.39
current	MIA	2	Cade Gibson	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.88	1.37
current	MIA	3	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.00	2.84	1.02
current	MIA	4	Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	2.0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	4.50	7.18	1.47
current	MIA	5	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	0.2	3	3	3	1	2	0	0	40.50	4.78	1.55
simulation	PHI	1	Zack Wheeler	Starter	6.1	2	0	0	3	5	24	99	0.00	2.16	0.88
simulation	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	5	21	0.00	0.77	0.80
simulation	PHI	3	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	18	0.00	2.75	1.25
simulation	PHI	4	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	6	22	9.00	6.16	1.58
simulation	PHI	5	Brian Keller	Reliever	0.0	2	2	2	1	0	3	24		3.00	0.67
simulation	MIA	1	Tyler Phillips	Starter	5.0	2	0	0	2	4	21	82	0.00	3.52	1.39
simulation	MIA	2	Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	2.0	1	1	1	1	0	8	32	4.50	7.18	1.47
simulation	MIA	3	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	4	16	0.00	2.84	1.02
simulation	MIA	4	Cade Gibson	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	5	20	0.00	4.88	1.37
simulation	MIA	5	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	0.2	3	3	3	1	2	6	21	40.50	4.78	1.55

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
PHI	Zack Wheeler	Starter	6.1	0	2	3	5	24	99
PHI	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	21
PHI	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	18
PHI	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	3	0	0	6	22
PHI	Brian Keller	Reliever	0.0	2	2	1	0	3	24
MIA	Tyler Phillips	Starter	5.0	0	2	2	4	21	82
MIA	Cade Gibson	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	0	5	20
MIA	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	16
MIA	Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	2.0	1	1	1	0	8	32
MIA	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	0.2	3	3	1	2	6	21

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260727_SEA@TEX

20260727_SEA@TEX.json • 2026-07-27

SEA 3 - TEX 6

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dominic Canzone: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Randy Arozarena: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Cole Young: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Naylor: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Cal Raleigh: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Luke Raley: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; J.P. Crawford: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=4; RBI: current=2, sim=6; R: current=3, sim=6; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ezequiel Duran: 2B current=0 box=1; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=4 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Wyatt Langford: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Joc Pederson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Jake Burger: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Smith: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Nicky Lopez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Evan Carter: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match TEX pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match TEX pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=37 matches TEX BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match SEA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match SEA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=37 matches SEA BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.458/0.640.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 5, TEX 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 3 - TEX 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TEX; cap=0.56, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'opponent_team': 'TEX', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-07-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-07-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'TEX'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-26', 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'confidence': 0.5142986002884401, 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260726_SEA@TEX.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-25', 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'confidence': 0.58, 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260725_SEA@TEX.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-24', 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260724_SEA@TEX.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SEA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'output_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'final_score_winner': 'TEX', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 4 - 5 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SEA 3 - 6 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.33, 'winner': 'TEX', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_SEA@TEX.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@TEX.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 3 - 6 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 3 - 6 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=TEX, final=TEX.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TEX wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-6.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-6, final 3-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TEX wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match TEX pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match TEX pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=37 matches TEX BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match SEA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match SEA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=37 matches SEA BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.458/0.640.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 5, TEX 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 3 - TEX 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TEX; cap=0.56, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'opponent_team': 'TEX', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-07-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-07-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-07-25', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'TEX'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-26', 'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'confidence': 0.5142986002884401, 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260726_SEA@TEX.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-25', 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'confidence': 0.58, 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260725_SEA@TEX.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-24', 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260724_SEA@TEX.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SEA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'output_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'final_score_winner': 'TEX', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TEX', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'SEA 4 - 5 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'SEA 3 - 6 TEX', 'winner': 'TEX'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score', 'simulation_usage': 'reconciled_final_score', 'final_prediction_source': 'simulation_reconciled_final', 'final_margin_quality_review': {'review_required': False, 'pre_margin': 1, 'final_margin': 3, 'winner_quality_edge': -0.33, 'winner': 'TEX', 'reason': 'final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold'}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_SEA@TEX.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@TEX.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 3 - 6 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 3 - 6 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=TEX, final=TEX.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TEX wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-6.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-6, final 3-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TEX wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dominic Canzone: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Randy Arozarena: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Cole Young: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Naylor: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Cal Raleigh: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Luke Raley: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; J.P. Crawford: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=4; RBI: current=2, sim=6; R: current=3, sim=6; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ezequiel Duran: 2B current=0 box=1; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=4 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Wyatt Langford: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Joc Pederson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Jake Burger: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Smith: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Nicky Lopez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Evan Carter: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	6.622772693634033	2.6105172634124756		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	7	2		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.560	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	5
TEX	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	6	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SEA	batting	34	9	0	0	0	2	2	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	SEA	pitching		10			0		6	2	7					8.0	6	0	0
current	TEX	batting	32	9	0	0	0	2	3	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	TEX	pitching		5			1		3	5	11					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	SEA	batting	32	5	0	0	1	3	3	5	11	0	0
simulation	SEA	pitching		10			0		6	2	7					8.0	6	37	153
simulation	TEX	batting	33	10	4	0	0	6	6	2	7	1	1
simulation	TEX	pitching		5			1		3	5	11					9.0	3	37	160

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	SEA		DH	Dominic Canzone	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	SEA		CF	Julio Rodríguez	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	SEA		LF	Randy Arozarena	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		2B	Cole Young	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		1B	Josh Naylor	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		C	Cal Raleigh	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		RF	Luke Raley	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SEA		3B	J.P. Crawford	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		SS	Colt Emerson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		SS	Ezequiel Duran	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		RF	Brandon Nimmo	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		LF	Wyatt Langford	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	TEX		DH	Joc Pederson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		1B	Jake Burger	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		3B	Josh Smith	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		2B	Nicky Lopez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		CF	Evan Carter	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		C	Elias Díaz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	SEA	1	2B	Cole Young	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	2	CF	Julio Rodríguez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	3	DH	Dominic Canzone	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	4	LF	Randy Arozarena	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	5	1B	Josh Naylor	4	3	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	SEA	6	C	Cal Raleigh	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	7	RF	Luke Raley	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	8	3B	J.P. Crawford	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	9	SS	Colt Emerson	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	1	DH	Joc Pederson	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	TEX	2	LF	Wyatt Langford	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	3	SS	Ezequiel Duran	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	4	2	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	TEX	5	1B	Jake Burger	4	4	3	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	TEX	6	CF	Evan Carter	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	7	2B	Nicky Lopez	4	4	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	TEX	8	3B	Josh Smith	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	9	C	Elias Díaz	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SEA	1	George Kirby	Starter	6.1	7	3	3	1	5	0	0	0	4.26	3.57	1.28
current	SEA	2	José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	3	1	2	0	0	0	27.00	2.79	1.33
current	SEA	4	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.38	1.12
current	TEX	1	Kumar Rocker	Starter	5.0	3	2	2	5	4	0	0	0	3.60	4.12	1.31
current	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.12	0.56
current	TEX	3	Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	6.11	1.36
current	TEX	4	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.49	1.24
current	TEX	5	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	13.50	3.20	1.33
simulation	SEA	1	George Kirby	Starter	6.1	7	3	3	1	5	0	27	114	4.26	3.57	1.28
simulation	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	3.38	1.12
simulation	SEA	3	José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	3	1	2	0	7	26	27.00	2.79	1.33
simulation	TEX	1	Kumar Rocker	Starter	5.0	3	2	2	5	4	0	23	92	3.60	4.12	1.31
simulation	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	19	0.00	1.12	0.56
simulation	TEX	3	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	18	0.00	3.49	1.24
simulation	TEX	4	Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	0	4	16	0.00	6.11	1.36
simulation	TEX	5	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	1	3	15	13.50	3.20	1.33

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SEA	George Kirby	Starter	6.1	3	7	1	5	27	114
SEA	José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	1	2	7	26
SEA	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	3	13
TEX	Kumar Rocker	Starter	5.0	2	3	5	4	23	92
TEX	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	19
TEX	Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	3	4	16
TEX	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	18
TEX	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	0	2	3	15

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260727_TOR@WAS

20260727_TOR@WAS.json • 2026-07-27

TOR 2 - WAS 5

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nathan Lukes: H current=1 box=0; George Springer: RBI current=1 box=0; Daulton Varsho: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Ernie Clement: H current=1 box=0; Luis Urías: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=8, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Keibert Ruiz: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; James Wood: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Brady House: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: 3B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jacob Young: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match WAS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match WAS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=34 matches WAS BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match TOR pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=35 matches TOR BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.466/0.650.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 5, WAS 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 2 - WAS 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: WAS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for WAS.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_TOR@WAS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@WAS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 150.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 150.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 2 - 5 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 2 - 5 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: WAS wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=WAS, final=WAS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: WAS wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: WAS wins 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-5.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-5, final 2-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: WAS wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match WAS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match WAS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=34 matches WAS BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match TOR pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=35 matches TOR BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.466/0.650.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 5, WAS 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 2 - WAS 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: WAS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for WAS.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-27.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260727_TOR@WAS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@WAS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 150.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 150.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 2 - 5 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 2 - 5 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: WAS wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=WAS, final=WAS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: WAS wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: WAS wins 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-5.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-5, final 2-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: WAS wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nathan Lukes: H current=1 box=0; George Springer: RBI current=1 box=0; Daulton Varsho: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Ernie Clement: H current=1 box=0; Luis Urías: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=8, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Keibert Ruiz: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; James Wood: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Brady House: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: 3B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jacob Young: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.781435251235962	3.3935787677764893		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	3		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	5	0.660	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	5
WAS	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	1	0	5	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TOR	batting	34	8	0	0	0	2	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	TOR	pitching		7			1		5	3	4					8.0	5	0	0
current	WAS	batting	32	9	0	0	0	5	8	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	WAS	pitching		5			1		2	2	8					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	TOR	batting	32	5	1	0	1	2	2	2	8	0	0
simulation	TOR	pitching		7			1		5	3	4					8.0	5	35	140
simulation	WAS	batting	31	7	1	2	1	5	5	3	4	0	1
simulation	WAS	pitching		5			1		2	2	8					9.0	2	34	150

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TOR		RF	Nathan Lukes	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		C	Alejandro Kirk	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		DH	George Springer	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		CF	Daulton Varsho	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		SS	Ernie Clement	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		LF	Davis Schneider	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	TOR		2B	Luis Urías	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	WAS		C	Keibert Ruiz	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	WAS		DH	James Wood	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		SS	CJ Abrams	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		1B	Luis García Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	WAS		3B	Brady House	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		RF	Dylan Crews	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		LF	Daylen Lile	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		CF	Jacob Young	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	WAS		2B	Nasim Nuñez	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	TOR	1	RF	Nathan Lukes	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	2	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	3	C	Alejandro Kirk	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	4	DH	George Springer	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	5	CF	Daulton Varsho	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	6	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	4	3	2	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	TOR	7	SS	Ernie Clement	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	8	LF	Davis Schneider	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	9	2B	Luis Urías	3	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	WAS	1	DH	James Wood	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	2	1B	Luis García Jr.	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	WAS	3	SS	CJ Abrams	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	WAS	4	C	Keibert Ruiz	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	WAS	5	LF	Daylen Lile	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	6	RF	Dylan Crews	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	7	CF	Jacob Young	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	WAS	8	3B	Brady House	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	9	2B	Nasim Nuñez	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TOR	1	Dylan Cease	Starter	6.2	5	3	3	3	4	1	0	0	4.05	2.46	1.09
current	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.04	0.94
current	TOR	3	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	27.00	1.54	1.09
current	TOR	5	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0		4.30	1.43
current	WAS	1	Andrew Alvarez	Starter	4.0	4	2	2	1	3	0	0	0	4.50	4.22	1.50
current	WAS	2	Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.13	1.20
current	WAS	3	Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.64	1.21
current	WAS	4	Riley Cornelio	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0.00	5.89	1.85
current	WAS	5	Tom Cosgrove	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.50	1.33
simulation	TOR	1	Dylan Cease	Starter	6.2	5	3	3	3	4	1	28	111	4.05	2.46	1.09
simulation	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	15	0.00	1.04	0.94
simulation	TOR	3	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	0	2	12	27.00	1.54	1.09
simulation	TOR	4	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	2	2		4.30	1.43
simulation	WAS	1	Andrew Alvarez	Starter	4.0	4	2	2	1	3	0	17	74	4.50	4.22	1.50
simulation	WAS	2	Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	3.13	1.20
simulation	WAS	3	Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	2	0	6	25	0.00	3.64	1.21
simulation	WAS	4	Tom Cosgrove	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	14	0.00	1.50	1.33
simulation	WAS	5	Riley Cornelio	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	1	4	20	0.00	5.89	1.85

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TOR	Dylan Cease	Starter	6.2	3	5	3	4	28	111
TOR	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	15
TOR	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	1	0	0	2	12
TOR	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	1	0	0	2	2
WAS	Andrew Alvarez	Starter	4.0	2	4	1	3	17	74
WAS	Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	17
WAS	Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	1	2	6	25
WAS	Riley Cornelio	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	20
WAS	Tom Cosgrove	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	14

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.