MLB JSON Audit Report

20260723_ARI@STL

20260723_ARI@STL.json • 2026-07-23

ARI 4 - STL 2

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ryan Waldschmidt: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Gabriel Moreno: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Max Kepler: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nolan Arenado: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ildemaro Vargas: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alec Burleson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; JJ Wetherholt: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Lars Nootbaar: BB current=1 box=0; Jordan Walker: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Blaze Jordan: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; José Fermín: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jimmy Crooks: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match STL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match STL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match STL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=35 matches STL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match ARI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match ARI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=39 matches ARI BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.612/0.826.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 5, STL 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 4 - STL 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ARI.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-19', 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260719_STL@ARI.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-18', 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260718_STL@ARI.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-17', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260717_STL@ARI.json'}, {'date': '2026-06-25', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.525, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260625_ARI@STL.json'}, {'date': '2026-06-24', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260624_ARI@STL.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-23.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260723_ARI@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@STL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 4 - 2 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 4 - 2 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ARI, final=ARI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ARI wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-2, final 4-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ARI wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 9/10 = 0.900.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match STL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match STL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match STL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=35 matches STL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match ARI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match ARI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=39 matches ARI BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.612/0.826.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 5, STL 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 4 - STL 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ARI.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-19', 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260719_STL@ARI.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-18', 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260718_STL@ARI.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-17', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260717_STL@ARI.json'}, {'date': '2026-06-25', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.525, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260625_ARI@STL.json'}, {'date': '2026-06-24', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260624_ARI@STL.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-23.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260723_ARI@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@STL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 4 - 2 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 4 - 2 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ARI, final=ARI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ARI wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-2, final 4-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ARI wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 9/10 = 0.900.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ryan Waldschmidt: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Gabriel Moreno: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Max Kepler: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nolan Arenado: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ildemaro Vargas: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alec Burleson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; JJ Wetherholt: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Lars Nootbaar: BB current=1 box=0; Jordan Walker: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Blaze Jordan: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; José Fermín: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jimmy Crooks: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.973395347595215	4.130978107452393		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	2	0.660	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	2		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	2		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	2		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	4	5
STL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ARI	batting	33	9	0	0	0	3	4	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	ARI	pitching		8			1		2	3	9					9.0	2	0	0
current	STL	batting	33	9	0	0	0	3	3	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		5			3		4	3	11					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	ARI	batting	32	5	0	0	3	4	4	3	11	0	0
simulation	ARI	pitching		8			1		2	3	9					9.0	2	39	151
simulation	STL	batting	35	8	0	0	1	2	2	3	9	0	1
simulation	STL	pitching		5			3		4	3	11					9.0	4	35	165

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	ARI		DH	Ketel Marte	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		C	Ryan Waldschmidt	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		1B	Geraldo Perdomo	0	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		2B	Gabriel Moreno	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		3B	Max Kepler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ARI		SS	Nolan Arenado	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ARI		LF	Corbin Carroll	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		CF	Ildemaro Vargas	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		RF	Tim Tawa	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	STL		DH	Alec Burleson	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		2B	JJ Wetherholt	0	5	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	STL		LF	Lars Nootbaar	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	STL		RF	Jordan Walker	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		SS	Masyn Winn	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		1B	Blaze Jordan	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	STL		CF	Nathan Church	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	STL		3B	José Fermín	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	STL		C	Jimmy Crooks	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	ARI	1	CF	Ryan Waldschmidt	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	2	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	4	3	1	1	1	2	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	ARI	3	2B	Ketel Marte	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	4	1B	Ildemaro Vargas	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	5	C	Gabriel Moreno	4	4	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	6	3B	Nolan Arenado	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	7	RF	Corbin Carroll	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	8	LF	Max Kepler	4	4	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	9	LF	Tim Tawa	3	2	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	STL	1	2B	JJ Wetherholt	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	STL	2	RF	Jordan Walker	5	4	2	0	1	0	0	1	1	0.500
simulation	STL	3	DH	Alec Burleson	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	STL	4	LF	Lars Nootbaar	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	STL	5	SS	Masyn Winn	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	STL	6	3B	José Fermín	4	4	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	STL	7	CF	Nathan Church	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	STL	8	1B	Blaze Jordan	4	2	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0.000
simulation	STL	9	C	Jimmy Crooks	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ARI	1	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.2	6	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	0.00	2.45	1.23
current	ARI	2	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.43
current	ARI	4	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	0.1	2	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	54.00	9.00	2.00
current	ARI	5	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
current	STL	1	Michael McGreevy	Starter	5.2	1	2	2	2	8	0	0	0	3.18	2.92	1.10
current	STL	2	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	9.00	3.25	1.06
current	STL	3	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.67	1.22
current	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	4.46	1.46
simulation	ARI	1	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.2	6	0	0	1	7	0	27	106	0.00	2.45	1.23
simulation	ARI	2	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	0.00	0.00
simulation	ARI	3	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	0.1	2	2	2	0	1	1	4	21	54.00	9.00	2.00
simulation	ARI	4	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	0	5	11	0.00	0.00	0.43
simulation	STL	1	Michael McGreevy	Starter	5.2	1	2	2	2	8	0	20	102	3.18	2.92	1.10
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	21	0.00	3.67	1.22
simulation	STL	3	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	1	1	2	7	26	9.00	3.25	1.06
simulation	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	4	16	9.00	4.46	1.46

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ARI	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.2	0	6	1	7	27	106
ARI	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	2	1	5	11
ARI	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	0.1	2	2	0	1	4	21
ARI	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
STL	Michael McGreevy	Starter	5.2	2	1	2	8	20	102
STL	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	3	1	1	7	26
STL	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	21
STL	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260723_KC@DET

20260723_KC@DET.json • 2026-07-23

KC 2 - DET 5

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gleyber Torres: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kerry Carpenter: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Zach McKinstry: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Spencer Torkelson: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=3; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=2; R: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=13).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lane Thomas: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Vinnie Pasquantino: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Salvador Perez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Michael Massey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Josh Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match KC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=36 matches KC BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match DET pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match DET pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match DET pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=34 matches DET BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.612/0.826.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 3, DET 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 2 - DET 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for DET.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-23.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260723_KC@DET.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@DET.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 2 - 5 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 2 - 5 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=DET, final=DET.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: DET wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-5.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-5, final 2-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: DET wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match KC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=36 matches KC BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match DET pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match DET pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match DET pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=34 matches DET BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.612/0.826.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 3, DET 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 2 - DET 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: DET.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for DET.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-23.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260723_KC@DET.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@DET.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 144.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 144.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 2 - 5 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 2 - 5 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=DET, final=DET.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: DET wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-5.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-5, final 2-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: DET wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gleyber Torres: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kerry Carpenter: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Zach McKinstry: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Spencer Torkelson: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=3; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=2; R: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=13).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lane Thomas: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Vinnie Pasquantino: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Salvador Perez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Michael Massey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Josh Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.4247589111328125	3.7197728157043457		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	2	4	0.660	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	2	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	3
DET	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	5	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	KC	batting	30	9	0	0	0	1	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		9			0		5	3	6					8.0	5	0	0
current	DET	batting	32	8	0	0	0	3	5	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	DET	pitching		3			1		2	4	13					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	KC	batting	30	3	1	0	1	2	2	4	13	0	0
simulation	KC	pitching		9			0		5	3	6					8.0	5	36	144
simulation	DET	batting	33	9	1	0	0	5	5	3	6	0	0
simulation	DET	pitching		3			1		2	4	13					9.0	2	34	149

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	KC		CF	Lane Thomas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	KC		1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	KC		DH	Salvador Perez	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	KC		C	Carter Jensen	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	KC		2B	Michael Massey	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	KC		3B	Josh Rojas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	KC		LF	Isaac Collins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	KC		RF	Nick Loftin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	KC		SS	Andrew Velazquez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	DET		2B	Gleyber Torres	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	DET		3B	Colt Keith	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	DET		SS	Kevin McGonigle	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	DET		DH	Riley Greene	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	DET		C	Dillon Dingler	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	DET		RF	Kerry Carpenter	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	DET		LF	Zach McKinstry	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	DET		1B	Spencer Torkelson	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	DET		CF	James Outman	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	KC	1	C	Carter Jensen	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	KC	2	CF	Lane Thomas	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0.333
simulation	KC	3	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	KC	4	DH	Salvador Perez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	KC	5	2B	Michael Massey	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	KC	6	LF	Isaac Collins	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	KC	7	3B	Josh Rojas	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	KC	8	RF	Nick Loftin	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	KC	9	SS	Andrew Velazquez	3	3	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0.333
simulation	DET	1	SS	Kevin McGonigle	4	4	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	DET	2	2B	Gleyber Torres	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	DET	3	3B	Colt Keith	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	DET	4	DH	Riley Greene	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	DET	5	C	Dillon Dingler	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	DET	6	RF	Kerry Carpenter	4	4	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	DET	7	1B	Spencer Torkelson	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	DET	8	LF	Zach McKinstry	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	2	0.250
simulation	DET	9	CF	James Outman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	KC	1	Randy Dobnak	Starter	4.1	2	2	2	1	4	0	0	0	4.15	1.93	1.50
current	KC	2	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.13	0.92
current	KC	4	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	1.0	5	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	27.00	4.70	1.57
current	KC	5	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	6.15	1.51
current	DET	1	Troy Melton	Starter	6.0	1	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	0.00	1.80	0.87
current	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.38	1.20
current	DET	3	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	1	0	0	18.00	2.00	1.36
current	DET	4	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.05	1.33
simulation	KC	1	Randy Dobnak	Starter	4.1	2	2	2	1	4	0	16	85	4.15	1.93	1.50
simulation	KC	2	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	19	0.00	6.15	1.51
simulation	KC	3	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	1	0	6	25	0.00	2.13	0.92
simulation	KC	4	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	1.0	5	3	3	1	1	0	9	15	27.00	4.70	1.57
simulation	DET	1	Troy Melton	Starter	6.0	1	0	0	2	8	0	21	92	0.00	1.80	0.87
simulation	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	17	0.00	3.38	1.20
simulation	DET	3	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	1	5	19	18.00	2.00	1.36
simulation	DET	4	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	0	5	21	0.00	3.05	1.33

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
KC	Randy Dobnak	Starter	4.1	2	2	1	4	16	85
KC	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	1	1	6	25
KC	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	5	1	1	9	15
KC	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	0	5	19
DET	Troy Melton	Starter	6.0	0	1	2	8	21	92
DET	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	17
DET	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	0	2	5	19
DET	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	2	1	5	21

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260723_MIN@CLE

20260723_MIN@CLE.json • 2026-07-23

MIN 4 - CLE 3

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: BB current=1 box=0; Chase DeLauter: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brayan Rocchio: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Travis Bazzana: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Patrick Bailey: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Manzardo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Rhys Hoskins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Josh Bell: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Byron Buxton: AB current=5 box=4; Brooks Lee: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Ryan Jeffers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Austin Martin: H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Luke Keaschall: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match MIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match MIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match MIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=36 matches MIN BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match CLE pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match CLE pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match CLE pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=36 matches CLE BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.455/0.640.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 5, CLE 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 4 - CLE 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIN.	{'winner_confidence': 0.51, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-22', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260722_MIN@CLE.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-21', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260721_MIN@CLE.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-20', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260720_MIN@CLE.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-09', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260709_CLE@MIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-08', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.63, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260708_CLE@MIN.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-23.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260723_MIN@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@CLE.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 4 - 3 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 4 - 3 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIN, final=MIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIN wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIN wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIN wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match MIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match MIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match MIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=36 matches MIN BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match CLE pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match CLE pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match CLE pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=36 matches CLE BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.455/0.640.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 5, CLE 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 4 - CLE 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIN.	{'winner_confidence': 0.51, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-22', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260722_MIN@CLE.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-21', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260721_MIN@CLE.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-20', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260720_MIN@CLE.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-09', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260709_CLE@MIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-08', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.63, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260708_CLE@MIN.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-23.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260723_MIN@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@CLE.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 4 - 3 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 4 - 3 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIN, final=MIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIN wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIN wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIN wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=0; SO: current=8, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: BB current=1 box=0; Chase DeLauter: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brayan Rocchio: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Travis Bazzana: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Patrick Bailey: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Manzardo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Rhys Hoskins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Josh Bell: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Byron Buxton: AB current=5 box=4; Brooks Lee: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Ryan Jeffers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Austin Martin: H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Luke Keaschall: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.013571262359619	3.526632785797119		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	3		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	4	5
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	3	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIN	batting	34	9	0	0	0	3	3	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIN	pitching		9			0		3	0	9					9.0	3	0	0
current	CLE	batting	32	9	0	0	0	3	2	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		5			2		4	3	6					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	MIN	batting	32	5	1	0	2	4	4	3	6	0	1
simulation	MIN	pitching		9			0		3	0	9					9.0	3	36	140
simulation	CLE	batting	36	9	1	0	0	3	3	0	9	0	0
simulation	CLE	pitching		5			2		4	3	6					9.0	4	36	155

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	MIN		DH	Josh Bell	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		CF	Byron Buxton	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	MIN		3B	Brooks Lee	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		C	Ryan Jeffers	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		2B	Kody Clemens	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		1B	Royce Lewis	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		LF	Austin Martin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		RF	Luke Keaschall	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		SS	Ryan Kreidler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CLE		LF	Steven Kwan	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	CLE		RF	Chase DeLauter	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		3B	José Ramírez	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		2B	Travis Bazzana	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		C	Patrick Bailey	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CLE		1B	Kyle Manzardo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CLE		DH	Rhys Hoskins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CLE		CF	Petey Halpin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	1	3B	Brooks Lee	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	2	CF	Byron Buxton	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	3	C	Ryan Jeffers	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	4	DH	Josh Bell	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	5	2B	Kody Clemens	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	6	1B	Royce Lewis	4	4	2	0	2	1	3	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	MIN	7	LF	Austin Martin	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIN	8	RF	Luke Keaschall	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	9	SS	Ryan Kreidler	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	1	LF	Steven Kwan	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	2	3B	José Ramírez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	3	RF	Chase DeLauter	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	4	SS	Brayan Rocchio	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	CLE	5	2B	Travis Bazzana	4	4	2	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	CLE	6	DH	Rhys Hoskins	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	CLE	7	1B	Kyle Manzardo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	8	C	Patrick Bailey	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	9	CF	Petey Halpin	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIN	1	Taj Bradley	Starter	6.0	3	1	1	0	7	0	0	0	1.50	3.85	1.25
current	MIN	2	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	1.1	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6.75	3.38	1.27
current	MIN	3	Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	3.55	1.27
current	MIN	4	Tommy Nance	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.96	1.38
current	CLE	1	Gavin Williams	Starter	5.2	4	3	3	2	3	1	0	0	4.76	4.00	1.15
current	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.72	1.06
current	CLE	3	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	9.00	1.67	0.82
current	CLE	4	Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.18	1.15
simulation	MIN	1	Taj Bradley	Starter	6.0	3	1	1	0	7	0	21	96	1.50	3.85	1.25
simulation	MIN	2	Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	0	6	16	9.00	3.55	1.27
simulation	MIN	3	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	1.1	3	1	1	0	0	0	7	7	6.75	3.38	1.27
simulation	MIN	4	Tommy Nance	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	21	0.00	3.96	1.38
simulation	CLE	1	Gavin Williams	Starter	5.2	4	3	3	2	3	1	24	105	4.76	4.00	1.15
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.72	1.06
simulation	CLE	3	Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	2.18	1.15
simulation	CLE	4	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	1	4	16	9.00	1.67	0.82

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIN	Taj Bradley	Starter	6.0	1	3	0	7	21	96
MIN	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	3	0	0	7	7
MIN	Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	3	0	1	6	16
MIN	Tommy Nance	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	21
CLE	Gavin Williams	Starter	5.2	3	4	2	3	24	105
CLE	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
CLE	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	2	4	16
CLE	Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260723_SD@ATL

20260723_SD@ATL.json • 2026-07-23

SD 2 - ATL 5

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ozzie Albies: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Michael Harris II: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Drake Baldwin: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Dominic Smith: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Mauricio Dubón: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Mike Yastrzemski: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; RBI: current=3, sim=2; R: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Manny Machado: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Luis Rengifo: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Ty France: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Xander Bogaerts: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Freddy Fermin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Gavin Sheets: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jase Bowen: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match SD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=33 matches SD BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match ATL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match ATL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=39 matches ATL BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.501/0.694.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SD 6, ATL 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SD 2 - ATL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ATL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 4, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-22', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260722_SD@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-21', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260721_SD@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-20', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260720_SD@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-06-24', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260624_ATL@SD.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-23.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260723_SD@ATL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SD@ATL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 127.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 127.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 2 - 5 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SD 2 - 5 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ATL, final=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-5.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-5, final 2-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match SD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=33 matches SD BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match ATL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match ATL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=39 matches ATL BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.501/0.694.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SD 6, ATL 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SD 2 - ATL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ATL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 4, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-22', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260722_SD@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-21', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.66, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260721_SD@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-20', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260720_SD@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-06-24', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260624_ATL@SD.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-23.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260723_SD@ATL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SD@ATL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 127.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 127.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 2 - 5 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SD 2 - 5 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ATL, final=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-5.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-5, final 2-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ozzie Albies: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Michael Harris II: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Drake Baldwin: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Dominic Smith: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Mauricio Dubón: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Mike Yastrzemski: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; RBI: current=3, sim=2; R: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Manny Machado: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Luis Rengifo: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Ty France: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Xander Bogaerts: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Freddy Fermin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Gavin Sheets: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jase Bowen: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.228337526321411	5.085972785949707		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	1	5	0.660	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	1	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	1	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	1	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	6
ATL	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	5	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SD	batting	30	9	0	0	0	3	1	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	SD	pitching		7			3		5	2	5					8.0	5	0	0
current	ATL	batting	33	9	0	0	0	5	5	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		6			0		2	5	7					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	SD	batting	33	6	0	0	0	2	2	5	7	0	1
simulation	SD	pitching		7			3		5	2	5					8.0	5	33	127
simulation	ATL	batting	30	7	1	0	3	5	5	2	5	1	0
simulation	ATL	pitching		6			0		2	5	7					9.0	2	39	171

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	SD		RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		3B	Manny Machado	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	SD		LF	Luis Rengifo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	SD		1B	Ty France	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		SS	Xander Bogaerts	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	SD		C	Freddy Fermin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		DH	Gavin Sheets	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		CF	Jase Bowen	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		2B	Jake Cronenworth	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		CF	Michael Harris II	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		C	Drake Baldwin	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		DH	Dominic Smith	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	ATL		LF	Mauricio Dubón	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		RF	Mike Yastrzemski	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		SS	Jim Jarvis	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	SD	1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	SD	2	LF	Luis Rengifo	5	5	3	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.600
simulation	SD	3	3B	Manny Machado	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	SD	4	1B	Ty France	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	5	SS	Xander Bogaerts	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	6	DH	Gavin Sheets	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	SD	7	C	Freddy Fermin	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SD	8	CF	Jase Bowen	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	SD	9	2B	Jake Cronenworth	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	ATL	1	C	Drake Baldwin	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	2	2B	Ozzie Albies	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	ATL	3	1B	Matt Olson	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	4	CF	Michael Harris II	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	ATL	5	LF	Mauricio Dubón	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	6	3B	Austin Riley	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	7	DH	Dominic Smith	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	8	RF	Mike Yastrzemski	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	9	SS	Jim Jarvis	3	2	2	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	1.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SD	1	Kyle Hart	Starter	4.2	6	4	4	1	4	2	0	0	7.71	5.66	1.14
current	SD	2	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.86	0.86
current	SD	5	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	3.33	1.11
current	ATL	1	Chris Sale	Starter	6.0	4	1	1	2	6	0	0	0	1.50	2.06	1.06
current	ATL	2	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.77	0.72
current	ATL	3	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.57	1.06
current	ATL	4	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	13.50	4.11	1.26
simulation	SD	1	Kyle Hart	Starter	4.2	6	4	4	1	4	2	21	81	7.71	5.66	1.14
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	8	26	0.00	0.86	0.86
simulation	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	4	20	9.00	3.33	1.11
simulation	ATL	1	Chris Sale	Starter	6.0	4	1	1	2	6	0	25	108	1.50	2.06	1.06
simulation	ATL	2	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.57	1.06
simulation	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	27	0.00	1.77	0.72
simulation	ATL	4	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	2	0	0	5	19	13.50	4.11	1.26

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SD	Kyle Hart	Starter	4.2	4	6	1	4	21	81
SD	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	1	0	8	26
SD	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	20
ATL	Chris Sale	Starter	6.0	1	4	2	6	25	108
ATL	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	0	5	27
ATL	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
ATL	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	2	0	5	19

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260723_TB@TOR

20260723_TB@TOR.json • 2026-07-23

TB 5 - TOR 3

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=39; H: current=9, sim=12; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonathan Aranda: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Jonny DeLuca: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ben Williamson: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Chandler Simpson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2; Richie Palacios: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=5, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ernie Clement: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; George Springer: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=0; Yohendrick Pinango: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Alejandro Kirk: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Luis Urías: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Myles Straw: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match TOR pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match TOR pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=42 matches TOR BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match TB pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match TB pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match TB pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=33 matches TB BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.455/0.640.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 12, TOR 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 5 - TOR 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TB.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-22', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.63, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260722_TB@TOR.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-21', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260721_TB@TOR.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-20', 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260720_TB@TOR.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-23.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260723_TB@TOR.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@TOR.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 134.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 134.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 5 - 3 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 5 - 3 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=TB, final=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TB wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 5-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match TOR pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match TOR pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=42 matches TOR BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match TB pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match TB pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match TB pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=33 matches TB BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.455/0.640.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 12, TOR 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 5 - TOR 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TB.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-22', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.63, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260722_TB@TOR.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-21', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260721_TB@TOR.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-20', 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260720_TB@TOR.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-23.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260723_TB@TOR.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@TOR.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 134.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 134.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 5 - 3 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 5 - 3 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=TB, final=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TB wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 5-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=39; H: current=9, sim=12; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jonathan Aranda: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0; Victor Mesa Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Jonny DeLuca: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ben Williamson: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Chandler Simpson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2; Richie Palacios: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=5, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ernie Clement: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; George Springer: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=0; Yohendrick Pinango: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Alejandro Kirk: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Luis Urías: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Myles Straw: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	6.312966346740723	3.6312854290008545		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	7	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	2	0.660	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	2		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	2		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	2		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	3	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	12
TOR	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	3	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TB	batting	31	9	0	0	0	5	4	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	TB	pitching		5			1		3	0	7					9.0	3	0	0
current	TOR	batting	32	9	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	0	0	0	0
current	TOR	pitching		12			1		5	3	7					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	TB	batting	39	12	0	0	1	5	5	3	7	0	0
simulation	TB	pitching		5			1		3	0	7					9.0	3	33	134
simulation	TOR	batting	32	5	2	0	1	3	3	0	7	0	1
simulation	TOR	pitching		12			1		5	3	7					9.0	5	42	159

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TB		1B	Jonathan Aranda	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		DH	Yandy Díaz	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		3B	Junior Caminero	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	TB		CF	Jonny DeLuca	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		SS	Ben Williamson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		LF	Chandler Simpson	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TB		2B	Richie Palacios	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		C	Hunter Feduccia	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TOR		SS	Ernie Clement	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		DH	George Springer	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		RF	Yohendrick Pinango	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TOR		C	Alejandro Kirk	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TOR		3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		2B	Luis Urías	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TOR		CF	Myles Straw	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TOR		LF	Daulton Varsho	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TB	1	DH	Yandy Díaz	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	TB	2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	TB	3	3B	Junior Caminero	5	5	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	TB	4	RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	TB	5	CF	Jonny DeLuca	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	TB	6	LF	Chandler Simpson	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	TB	7	SS	Ben Williamson	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	TB	8	2B	Richie Palacios	4	4	2	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	TB	9	C	Hunter Feduccia	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	1	RF	Yohendrick Pinango	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TOR	2	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	3	SS	Ernie Clement	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TOR	4	DH	George Springer	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	5	C	Alejandro Kirk	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TOR	6	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	7	2B	Luis Urías	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	8	CF	Myles Straw	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	9	CF	Daulton Varsho	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TB	1	Casey Legumina	Starter	5.0	2	1	1	0	4	1	0	0	1.80	3.48	1.23
current	TB	2	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.27	0.88
current	TB	3	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.64	0.83
current	TB	4	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.72	1.31
current	TB	5	Cam Booser	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	27.00	1.74	0.68
current	TOR	1	Shane Bieber	Starter	4.2	8	5	5	2	4	1	0	0	9.64	5.70	1.73
current	TOR	2	Braydon Fisher	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.73	1.18
current	TOR	3	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.40	1.42
current	TOR	4	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.06	0.96
current	TOR	5	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.58	1.12
current	TOR	6	Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.60	1.35
current	TOR	7	Spencer Miles	Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
simulation	TB	1	Casey Legumina	Starter	5.0	2	1	1	0	4	1	17	70	1.80	3.48	1.23
simulation	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	1.64	0.83
simulation	TB	3	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	5	20	0.00	2.27	0.88
simulation	TB	4	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	3.72	1.31
simulation	TB	5	Cam Booser	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	2	2	0	0	0	4	15	27.00	1.74	0.68
simulation	TOR	1	Shane Bieber	Starter	4.2	8	5	5	2	4	1	24	91	9.64	5.70	1.73
simulation	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	18	0.00	1.06	0.96
simulation	TOR	3	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	1.58	1.12
simulation	TOR	4	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	16	0.00	4.40	1.42
simulation	TOR	5	Braydon Fisher	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	0	0	0	1	0	6	6	0.00	3.73	1.18
simulation	TOR	6	Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	15	0.00	3.60	1.35
simulation	TOR	7	Spencer Miles	Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		3.33	1.11

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TB	Casey Legumina	Starter	5.0	1	2	0	4	17	70
TB	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	1	5	20
TB	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
TB	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	4	16
TB	Cam Booser	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	2	0	0	4	15
TOR	Shane Bieber	Starter	4.2	5	8	2	4	24	91
TOR	Braydon Fisher	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	3	0	1	6	6
TOR	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	16
TOR	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	18
TOR	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
TOR	Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	1	0	0	2	15
TOR	Spencer Miles	Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.