MLB JSON Audit Report

20260720_BAL@BOS

20260720_BAL@BOS.json • 2026-07-20

BAL 3 - BOS 4

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=13).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Taylor Ward: RBI current=0 box=1; Pete Alonso: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Coby Mayo: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=5; Leody Taveras: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Tyler O'Neill: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=0 box=1; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jeremiah Jackson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Anthony Seigler: RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Willson Contreras: HR current=0 box=1; Wilyer Abreu: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Ceddanne Rafaela: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Masataka Yoshida: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=2; Caleb Durbin: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Jarren Duran: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Tsung-Che Cheng: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match BOS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match BOS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match BOS pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=42 matches BOS BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match BAL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match BAL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=32 matches BAL BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.629/0.845.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 10, BOS 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 3 - BOS 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for BOS.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_BAL@BOS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@BOS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 180.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 180.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 3 - 4 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 3 - 4 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=BOS, final=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match BOS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match BOS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match BOS pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=42 matches BOS BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match BAL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match BAL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=32 matches BAL BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.629/0.845.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 10, BOS 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 3 - BOS 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for BOS.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_BAL@BOS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@BOS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 180.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 180.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 3 - 4 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 3 - 4 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=BOS, final=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 8/10 = 0.800.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=13).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Taylor Ward: RBI current=0 box=1; Pete Alonso: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Coby Mayo: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=5; Leody Taveras: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Tyler O'Neill: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=0 box=1; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jeremiah Jackson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Anthony Seigler: RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Willson Contreras: HR current=0 box=1; Wilyer Abreu: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Ceddanne Rafaela: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Masataka Yoshida: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=2; Caleb Durbin: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Jarren Duran: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Tsung-Che Cheng: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.514032363891602	5.72032356262207		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.640	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	10
BOS	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	4	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	BAL	batting	33	9	0	0	0	2	3	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	BAL	pitching		6			1		4	2	9					8.0	4	0	0
current	BOS	batting	32	9	0	0	0	3	3	0	7	0	0	0	0
current	BOS	pitching		10			0		3	5	13					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	BAL	batting	37	10	3	0	0	3	3	5	13	0	0
simulation	BAL	pitching		6			1		4	2	9					8.0	4	32	135
simulation	BOS	batting	30	6	1	0	1	4	4	2	9	0	0
simulation	BOS	pitching		10			0		3	5	13					9.0	3	42	180

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	BAL		LF	Taylor Ward	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	BAL		1B	Pete Alonso	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	BAL		DH	Coby Mayo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		CF	Leody Taveras	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		RF	Tyler O'Neill	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		SS	Gunnar Henderson	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	BAL		2B	Jeremiah Jackson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
current	BAL		C	Sam Huff	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BOS		2B	Anthony Seigler	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	BOS		1B	Willson Contreras	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	BOS		RF	Wilyer Abreu	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	BOS		CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	BOS		DH	Masataka Yoshida	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	BOS		C	Connor Wong	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BOS		3B	Caleb Durbin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	BOS		LF	Jarren Duran	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	BOS		SS	Tsung-Che Cheng	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	BAL	1	LF	Taylor Ward	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	2	1B	Pete Alonso	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	3	SS	Gunnar Henderson	5	4	2	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.500
simulation	BAL	4	RF	Tyler O'Neill	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	5	DH	Coby Mayo	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	0.000
simulation	BAL	6	CF	Leody Taveras	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	BAL	7	2B	Jeremiah Jackson	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	BAL	8	3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4	4	2	2	0	1	2	0	1	0.500
simulation	BAL	9	C	Sam Huff	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	1	2B	Anthony Seigler	4	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	2	CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	3	RF	Wilyer Abreu	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	BOS	4	1B	Willson Contreras	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	BOS	5	DH	Masataka Yoshida	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	BOS	6	3B	Caleb Durbin	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	BOS	7	LF	Jarren Duran	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	BOS	8	C	Connor Wong	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	BOS	9	SS	Tsung-Che Cheng	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	BAL	1	Shane Baz	Starter	6.0	4	4	4	2	7	1	0	0	6.00	4.19	1.39
current	BAL	3	Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.89	1.03
current	BAL	4	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.00	1.30
current	BOS	1	Payton Tolle	Starter	5.2	3	1	1	5	6	0	0	0	1.59	3.11	1.07
current	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.17	1.08
current	BOS	3	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	2.06	0.91
current	BOS	4	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.0	4	2	2	0	2	0	0	0	18.00	5.40	1.50
current	BOS	5	Tyron Guerrero	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.21	1.03
simulation	BAL	1	Shane Baz	Starter	6.0	4	4	4	2	7	1	24	103	6.00	4.19	1.39
simulation	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	4.00	1.30
simulation	BAL	3	Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	2.89	1.03
simulation	BOS	1	Payton Tolle	Starter	5.2	3	1	1	5	6	0	25	102	1.59	3.11	1.07
simulation	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	1.17	1.08
simulation	BOS	3	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	3	0	5	19	0.00	2.06	0.91
simulation	BOS	4	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.0	4	2	2	0	2	0	7	25	18.00	5.40	1.50
simulation	BOS	5	Tyron Guerrero	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	17	0.00	2.21	1.03

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
BAL	Shane Baz	Starter	6.0	4	4	2	7	24	103
BAL	Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
BAL	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
BOS	Payton Tolle	Starter	5.2	1	3	5	6	25	102
BOS	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	17
BOS	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	3	5	19
BOS	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	4	0	2	7	25
BOS	Tyron Guerrero	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260720_CHW@TEX

20260720_CHW@TEX.json • 2026-07-20

CHW 0 - TEX 3

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=3; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=0; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, HBP current=0 box=1; Kyle Teel: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Colson Montgomery: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Sam Antonacci: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Joc Pederson: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brandon Nimmo: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Jung: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Burger: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Ezequiel Duran: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Elias Díaz: SO current=1 box=0; Evan Carter: H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match TEX pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match TEX pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match TEX pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=38 matches TEX BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match CHW pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match CHW pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=33 matches CHW BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.410.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.590.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.590.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 3 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 3.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.410/0.614.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 3, TEX 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 0 - TEX 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TEX.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5897059681288055, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_CHW@TEX.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@TEX.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 0 - 3 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 0 - 3 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 3-0.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=TEX, final=TEX.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.590.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 1/10 (0.100).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TEX wins 3-0.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 0-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 0-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 0-3, final 0-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 3.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TEX wins 3-0.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 1/10 = 0.100.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match TEX pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match TEX pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match TEX pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=38 matches TEX BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match CHW pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match CHW pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=33 matches CHW BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.410.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.590.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.590.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 3 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 3.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.410/0.614.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 3, TEX 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 0 - TEX 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TEX.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TEX.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5897059681288055, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_CHW@TEX.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@TEX.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 0 - 3 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 0 - 3 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TEX wins 3-0.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=TEX, final=TEX.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.590.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 1/10 (0.100).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TEX wins 3-0.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TEX wins 0-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 0-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 0-3, final 0-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 3.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TEX wins 3-0.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 1/10 = 0.100.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=3; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=0; R: current=5, sim=0; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, HBP current=0 box=1; Kyle Teel: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Colson Montgomery: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Braden Montgomery: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Sam Antonacci: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Joc Pederson: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Wyatt Langford: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brandon Nimmo: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Josh Jung: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Burger: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Ezequiel Duran: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Elias Díaz: SO current=1 box=0; Evan Carter: H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.1301820278167725	4.224603176116943		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	1	3	0.590	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	1	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	1	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	1	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	0	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHW	batting	32	9	0	0	0	3	5	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	CHW	pitching		6			1		3	3	8					8.0	3	0	0
current	TEX	batting	32	9	0	0	0	3	2	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	TEX	pitching		3			0		0	5	8					9.0	0	0	0
simulation	CHW	batting	30	3	1	0	0	0	0	5	8	0	3
simulation	CHW	pitching		6			1		3	3	8					8.0	3	33	132
simulation	TEX	batting	30	6	1	0	1	3	3	3	8	0	0
simulation	TEX	pitching		3			0		0	5	8					9.0	0	38	160

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	CHW		DH	Tristan Peters	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHW		C	Kyle Teel	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHW		1B	Chase Meidroth	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		2B	Colson Montgomery	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		3B	Munetaka Murakami	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		SS	Braden Montgomery	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		LF	Sam Antonacci	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHW		CF	Miguel Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		RF	Andrew Benintendi	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		DH	Joc Pederson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		LF	Wyatt Langford	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	TEX		RF	Brandon Nimmo	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		3B	Josh Jung	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		1B	Jake Burger	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		SS	Ezequiel Duran	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		C	Elias Díaz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		CF	Evan Carter	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		2B	Nicky Lopez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	CHW	1	CF	Tristan Peters	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	CHW	2	SS	Colson Montgomery	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	3	2B	Chase Meidroth	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	4	IF	Munetaka Murakami	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	5	C	Kyle Teel	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	6	3B	Miguel Vargas	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	CHW	7	OF	Braden Montgomery	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	CHW	8	SS	Sam Antonacci	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	9	DH	Andrew Benintendi	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	1	DH	Joc Pederson	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	2	LF	Wyatt Langford	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	3	3B	Josh Jung	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TEX	5	1B	Jake Burger	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	6	SS	Ezequiel Duran	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	7	CF	Evan Carter	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	8	C	Elias Díaz	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	TEX	9	2B	Nicky Lopez	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHW	1	Davis Martin	Starter	6.0	2	2	2	3	7	0	0	0	3.00	3.31	1.19
current	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.42	1.26
current	CHW	5	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	0.1	3	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	27.00	7.71	1.71
current	TEX	1	Jacob deGrom	Starter	5.2	2	0	0	4	7	0	0	0	0.00	3.49	1.01
current	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.98	0.57
current	TEX	3	Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	5.77	1.34
current	TEX	4	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.67	1.25
simulation	CHW	1	Davis Martin	Starter	6.0	2	2	2	3	7	0	23	94	3.00	3.31	1.19
simulation	CHW	2	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	6	24	0.00	1.42	1.26
simulation	CHW	3	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	0.1	3	1	1	0	1	1	4	14	27.00	7.71	1.71
simulation	TEX	1	Jacob deGrom	Starter	5.2	2	0	0	4	7	0	23	105	0.00	3.49	1.01
simulation	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	21	0.00	0.98	0.57
simulation	TEX	3	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	18	0.00	3.67	1.25
simulation	TEX	4	Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	5	16	0.00	5.77	1.34

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHW	Davis Martin	Starter	6.0	2	2	3	7	23	94
CHW	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	0	0	6	24
CHW	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	3	0	1	4	14
TEX	Jacob deGrom	Starter	5.2	0	2	4	7	23	105
TEX	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	0	5	21
TEX	Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	5	16
TEX	Peyton Gray	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	5	18

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260720_CIN@SEA

20260720_CIN@SEA.json • 2026-07-20

CIN 3 - SEA 2

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sal Stewart: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Spencer Steer: HR current=0 box=1; JJ Bleday: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tyler Stephenson: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Dane Myers: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Edwin Arroyo: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; R: current=3, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Dominic Canzone: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Randy Arozarena: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Buddy Kennedy: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Victor Robles: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Cole Young: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Colt Emerson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match SEA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match SEA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=36 matches SEA BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match CIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match CIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match CIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=37 matches CIN BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.525.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.525.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.475.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 5.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.422/0.600.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 6, SEA 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 3 - SEA 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CIN.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5248819298770253, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_CIN@SEA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@SEA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 3 - 2 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 3 - 2 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CIN wins 3-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CIN, final=CIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.525.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CIN wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CIN wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-2, final 3-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CIN wins 3-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match SEA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match SEA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=36 matches SEA BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match CIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match CIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match CIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=37 matches CIN BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.525.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.525.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.475.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 5.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.422/0.600.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 6, SEA 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 3 - SEA 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CIN.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5248819298770253, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_CIN@SEA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@SEA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 3 - 2 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 3 - 2 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CIN wins 3-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CIN, final=CIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.525.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CIN wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CIN wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-2, final 3-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CIN wins 3-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sal Stewart: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Spencer Steer: HR current=0 box=1; JJ Bleday: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tyler Stephenson: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Dane Myers: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Edwin Arroyo: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; R: current=3, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Dominic Canzone: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=5 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Randy Arozarena: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Buddy Kennedy: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Victor Robles: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Cole Young: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Colt Emerson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.274919509887695	4.4950361251831055		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	2	0.525	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	2		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	2		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	2		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	3	6
SEA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CIN	batting	33	9	0	0	0	5	3	1	10	0	0	0	0
current	CIN	pitching		7			0		2	2	8					9.0	2	0	0
current	SEA	batting	33	9	0	0	0	2	3	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	SEA	pitching		6			2		3	3	12					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	CIN	batting	33	6	1	0	2	3	3	3	12	0	0
simulation	CIN	pitching		7			0		2	2	8					9.0	2	37	154
simulation	SEA	batting	34	7	1	0	0	2	2	2	8	0	1
simulation	SEA	pitching		6			2		3	3	12					9.0	3	36	166

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	CIN		1B	Sal Stewart	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		RF	Spencer Steer	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		LF	JJ Bleday	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		SS	Elly De La Cruz	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	CIN		DH	Eugenio Suárez	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0.250
current	CIN		C	Tyler Stephenson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		CF	Dane Myers	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		2B	Edwin Arroyo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SEA		C	Cal Raleigh	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		DH	Dominic Canzone	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SEA		CF	Julio Rodríguez	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	SEA		LF	Randy Arozarena	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		1B	Josh Naylor	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	SEA		3B	Buddy Kennedy	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SEA		RF	Victor Robles	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SEA		2B	Cole Young	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SEA		SS	Colt Emerson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	CIN	1	SS	Elly De La Cruz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	2	1B	Sal Stewart	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	3	LF	JJ Bleday	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	4	RF	Spencer Steer	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	5	DH	Eugenio Suárez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	6	C	Tyler Stephenson	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	CIN	7	CF	Dane Myers	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	CIN	8	2B	Edwin Arroyo	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	9	3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	1	LF	Randy Arozarena	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	2	CF	Julio Rodríguez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	3	DH	Dominic Canzone	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	SEA	4	C	Cal Raleigh	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	5	1B	Josh Naylor	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	6	2B	Cole Young	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	SEA	7	RF	Victor Robles	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	8	3B	Buddy Kennedy	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	SEA	9	SS	Colt Emerson	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CIN	1	Andrew Abbott	Starter	5.0	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	0	0.00	4.11	1.42
current	CIN	2	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.89	1.35
current	CIN	3	Caleb Ferguson	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	18.00	3.20	1.42
current	CIN	4	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	6.23	1.44
current	CIN	5	Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.17	0.90
current	SEA	1	George Kirby	Starter	6.1	4	2	2	2	8	1	0	0	2.84	3.76	1.32
current	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.47	1.16
current	SEA	3	José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.85	1.34
current	SEA	4	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	13.50	2.28	1.22
simulation	CIN	1	Andrew Abbott	Starter	5.0	0	0	0	1	7	0	17	96	0.00	4.11	1.42
simulation	CIN	2	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	6.23	1.44
simulation	CIN	3	Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	2.17	0.90
simulation	CIN	4	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	5	19	0.00	2.89	1.35
simulation	CIN	5	Caleb Ferguson	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	0	7	7	18.00	3.20	1.42
simulation	SEA	1	George Kirby	Starter	6.1	4	2	2	2	8	1	25	112	2.84	3.76	1.32
simulation	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	22	0.00	3.47	1.16
simulation	SEA	3	José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.85	1.34
simulation	SEA	4	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	1	3	15	13.50	2.28	1.22

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CIN	Andrew Abbott	Starter	5.0	0	0	1	7	17	96
CIN	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	1	5	19
CIN	Caleb Ferguson	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	3	1	0	7	7
CIN	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
CIN	Tejay Antone	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
SEA	George Kirby	Starter	6.1	2	4	2	8	25	112
SEA	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	22
SEA	José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
SEA	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	0	2	3	15

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260720_DET@CHC

20260720_DET@CHC.json • 2026-07-20

DET 2 - CHC 6

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=5; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=6; R: current=7, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Michael Busch: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Alex Bregman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nico Hoerner: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Dansby Swanson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gleyber Torres: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kevin McGonigle: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Dillon Dingler: H current=1 box=0; Kerry Carpenter: AB current=3 box=4; Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Zach McKinstry: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Spencer Torkelson: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; James Outman: H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match DET pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match DET pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match DET pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=37 matches DET BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match CHC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=35 matches CHC BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.403.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.597.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.597.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.501/0.694.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 7, CHC 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 2 - CHC 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CHC.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5973943737628591, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_DET@CHC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@CHC.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 138.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 138.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 2 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 2 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CHC, final=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.597.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CHC wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-6.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-6, final 2-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match DET pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match DET pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match DET pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=37 matches DET BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match CHC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=35 matches CHC BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.403.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.597.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.597.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.501/0.694.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 7, CHC 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 2 - CHC 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CHC.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5973943737628591, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_DET@CHC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@CHC.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 138.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 138.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 2 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 2 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CHC, final=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.597.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CHC wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-6.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-6, final 2-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=5; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=6; R: current=7, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=7, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Michael Busch: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Alex Bregman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Pedro Ramirez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nico Hoerner: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Dansby Swanson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gleyber Torres: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kevin McGonigle: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Dillon Dingler: H current=1 box=0; Kerry Carpenter: AB current=3 box=4; Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Zach McKinstry: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Spencer Torkelson: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; James Outman: H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5	5		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.597	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	7
CHC	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	4	0	6	11

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	DET	batting	32	8	0	0	0	2	2	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	DET	pitching		11			1		6	2	5					8.0	6	0	0
current	CHC	batting	34	9	0	0	0	3	7	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	CHC	pitching		7			1		2	1	8					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	DET	batting	34	7	2	0	1	2	2	1	8	0	0
simulation	DET	pitching		11			1		6	2	5					8.0	6	37	141
simulation	CHC	batting	33	11	5	0	1	6	6	2	5	2	0
simulation	CHC	pitching		7			1		2	1	8					9.0	2	35	138

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	DET		2B	Gleyber Torres	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	DET		SS	Kevin McGonigle	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	DET		C	Dillon Dingler	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	DET		DH	Kerry Carpenter	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	DET		3B	Colt Keith	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	DET		RF	Zach McKinstry	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	DET		1B	Spencer Torkelson	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	DET		CF	James Outman	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	DET		LF	Riley Greene	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		RF	Seiya Suzuki	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CHC		1B	Michael Busch	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CHC		DH	Alex Bregman	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		LF	Ian Happ	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		3B	Pedro Ramirez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	CHC		2B	Nico Hoerner	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	CHC		SS	Dansby Swanson	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CHC		C	Miguel Amaya	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	DET	1	SS	Kevin McGonigle	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.333
simulation	DET	2	2B	Gleyber Torres	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	DET	3	3B	Colt Keith	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	DET	4	LF	Riley Greene	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	DET	5	C	Dillon Dingler	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	DET	6	DH	Kerry Carpenter	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	DET	7	1B	Spencer Torkelson	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	DET	8	RF	Zach McKinstry	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	DET	9	CF	James Outman	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	CHC	1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	3	1B	Michael Busch	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	CHC	4	DH	Alex Bregman	4	3	2	1	1	1	2	0	0	0.667
simulation	CHC	5	LF	Ian Happ	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	6	2B	Nico Hoerner	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHC	7	3B	Pedro Ramirez	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	CHC	8	SS	Dansby Swanson	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	CHC	9	C	Miguel Amaya	4	3	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0.667

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	DET	1	Jack Flaherty	Starter	4.2	6	2	2	1	2	0	0	0	3.86	4.48	1.41
current	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.65	1.14
current	DET	3	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.69	1.38
current	DET	4	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	1.0	4	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	36.00	3.12	1.32
current	CHC	1	Jameson Taillon	Starter	4.2	5	2	2	1	5	0	0	0	3.86	5.19	1.30
current	CHC	2	Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.08	1.22
current	CHC	3	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.98	1.32
current	CHC	4	Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	6.18	1.81
current	CHC	5	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0.00	2.40	1.00
simulation	DET	1	Jack Flaherty	Starter	4.2	6	2	2	1	2	0	21	87	3.86	4.48	1.41
simulation	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.65	1.14
simulation	DET	3	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	1.69	1.38
simulation	DET	4	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	1.0	4	4	4	1	1	1	8	21	36.00	3.12	1.32
simulation	CHC	1	Jameson Taillon	Starter	4.2	5	2	2	1	5	0	20	86	3.86	5.19	1.30
simulation	CHC	2	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	17	0.00	2.98	1.32
simulation	CHC	3	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	1	5	5	0.00	2.40	1.00
simulation	CHC	4	Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	4.08	1.22
simulation	CHC	5	Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	14	0.00	6.18	1.81

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
DET	Jack Flaherty	Starter	4.2	2	6	1	2	21	87
DET	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
DET	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
DET	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	1.0	4	4	1	1	8	21
CHC	Jameson Taillon	Starter	4.2	2	5	1	5	20	86
CHC	Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
CHC	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	17
CHC	Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	14
CHC	Trent Thornton	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	2	5	5

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260720_LAD@PHI

20260720_LAD@PHI.json • 2026-07-20

LAD 5 - PHI 3

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=4; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=3; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Freddie Freeman: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Andy Pages: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Tommy Edman: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0; Miguel Rojas: H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Alex Call: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Teoscar Hernández: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; RBI: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: AB current=5 box=4, BB current=0 box=1; Bryce Harper: R current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Gabriel Rincones Jr.: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Justin Crawford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match PHI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match PHI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=37 matches PHI BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match LAD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match LAD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=40 matches LAD BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.441/0.622.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 7, PHI 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 5 - PHI 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for LAD.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_LAD@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@PHI.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 5 - 3 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 5 - 3 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=LAD, final=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 5-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match PHI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match PHI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=37 matches PHI BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match LAD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match LAD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=40 matches LAD BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.441/0.622.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 7, PHI 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 5 - PHI 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for LAD.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_LAD@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@PHI.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 5 - 3 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 5 - 3 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=LAD, final=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 5-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=4; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=3; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Freddie Freeman: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Andy Pages: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Tommy Edman: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0; Miguel Rojas: H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Alex Call: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Teoscar Hernández: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; RBI: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Trea Turner: AB current=5 box=4, BB current=0 box=1; Bryce Harper: R current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Gabriel Rincones Jr.: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Justin Crawford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.573315382003784	4.767523288726807		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.640	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5	7
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	3	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	LAD	batting	32	9	0	0	3	6	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		8				3	5	8					9.0	3	0	0
current	PHI	batting	34	9	0	0	1	3	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	PHI	pitching		7				5	2	3					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	LAD	batting	33	7	4	0	5	5	2	3	1	1
simulation	LAD	pitching		8				3	5	8					9.0	3	40	170
simulation	PHI	batting	35	8	0	0	3	3	5	8	0	0
simulation	PHI	pitching		7				5	2	3					9.0	5	37	140

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		CF	Andy Pages	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		SS	Mookie Betts	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		DH	Shohei Ohtani	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		3B	Tommy Edman	0	3	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAD		2B	Miguel Rojas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	LAD		RF	Alex Call	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		C	Dalton Rushing	0	3	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	PHI		DH	Kyle Schwarber	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		3B	Alec Bohm	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		SS	Trea Turner	0	5	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	PHI		1B	Bryce Harper	0	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		LF	Brandon Marsh	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		2B	Bryson Stott	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		RF	Gabriel Rincones Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	PHI		C	J.T. Realmuto	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	PHI		CF	Justin Crawford	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	LAD	1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	LAD	2	CF	Andy Pages	4	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	LAD	3	3B	Tommy Edman	4	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	4	1B	Freddie Freeman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	5	SS	Mookie Betts	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	6	2B	Miguel Rojas	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	7	LF	Teoscar Hernández	4	4	2	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	LAD	8	RF	Alex Call	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	9	C	Dalton Rushing	4	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	1	SS	Trea Turner	5	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	2	DH	Kyle Schwarber	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	PHI	3	1B	Bryce Harper	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	4	3B	Alec Bohm	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	PHI	5	LF	Brandon Marsh	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	6	2B	Bryson Stott	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	PHI	7	C	J.T. Realmuto	4	3	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	PHI	8	RF	Gabriel Rincones Jr.	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	PHI	9	CF	Justin Crawford	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	LAD	1	Emmet Sheehan	Starter	5.0	6	3	3	4	4	0	0	5.40	4.81	1.24
current	LAD	2	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0.00	2.14	1.16
current	LAD	4	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	6.75	1.75
current	LAD	5	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.00	2.50	0.76
current	PHI	1	Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	6.0	5	3	3	2	3	0	0	4.50	2.62	1.19
current	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.80	0.83
current	PHI	3	Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.00	2.84	1.07
current	PHI	4	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.00	2.37	1.13
simulation	LAD	1	Emmet Sheehan	Starter	5.0	6	3	3	4	4	25	109	5.40	4.81	1.24
simulation	LAD	2	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	0	0	0	2	6	23	0.00	2.50	0.76
simulation	LAD	3	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	4	17	0.00	2.14	1.16
simulation	LAD	4	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	5	21	0.00	6.75	1.75
simulation	PHI	1	Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	6.0	5	3	3	2	3	26	99	4.50	2.62	1.19
simulation	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	8	0.00	0.80	0.83
simulation	PHI	3	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	4	17	9.00	2.37	1.13
simulation	PHI	4	Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	4	16	9.00	2.84	1.07

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
LAD	Emmet Sheehan	Starter	5.0	3	6	4	4	25	109
LAD	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	17
LAD	Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	21
LAD	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	2	0	2	6	23
PHI	Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	6.0	3	5	2	3	26	99
PHI	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	8
PHI	Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16
PHI	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260720_MIA@HOU

20260720_MIA@HOU.json • 2026-07-20

MIA 5 - HOU 3

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Isaac Paredes: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Zach Dezenzo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Yainer Diaz: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; LaMonte Wade Jr.: 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=1, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=11).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Griffin Conine: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Xavier Edwards: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Joe Mack: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Graham Pauley: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match MIA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match MIA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match MIA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=35 matches MIA BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match HOU pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match HOU pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match HOU pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=40 matches HOU BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.422/0.600.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIA 9, HOU 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIA 5 - HOU 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIA.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_MIA@HOU.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIA@HOU.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 181.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 181.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIA 5 - 3 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIA 5 - 3 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIA, final=MIA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIA wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 5-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIA wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match MIA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match MIA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match MIA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=35 matches MIA BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match HOU pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match HOU pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match HOU pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=40 matches HOU BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.422/0.600.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIA 9, HOU 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIA 5 - HOU 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIA.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_MIA@HOU.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIA@HOU.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 181.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 181.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIA 5 - 3 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIA 5 - 3 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIA, final=MIA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIA wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 5-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIA wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jeremy Peña: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Isaac Paredes: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Zach Dezenzo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Yainer Diaz: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; LaMonte Wade Jr.: 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Taylor Trammell: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=1, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=11).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Griffin Conine: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jakob Marsee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Xavier Edwards: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Joe Mack: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Graham Pauley: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.66741943359375	4.510945796966553		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.640	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	1	5	9
HOU	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIA	batting	32	9	0	0	0	2	1	1	7	0	0	0	0
current	MIA	pitching		5			0		3	3	8					9.0	3	0	0
current	HOU	batting	33	8	0	0	0	2	3	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	HOU	pitching		9			2		5	4	11					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	MIA	batting	36	9	1	0	2	5	5	4	11	0	0
simulation	MIA	pitching		5			0		3	3	8					9.0	3	35	145
simulation	HOU	batting	32	5	1	1	0	3	3	3	8	0	0
simulation	HOU	pitching		9			2		5	4	11					9.0	5	40	181

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	MIA		1B	Kyle Stowers	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		RF	Griffin Conine	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		DH	Liam Hicks	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	MIA		CF	Jakob Marsee	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	MIA		2B	Xavier Edwards	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		C	Joe Mack	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		LF	Heriberto Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		3B	Graham Pauley	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		SS	Javier Sanoja	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	HOU		2B	Jose Altuve	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		DH	Yordan Alvarez	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	HOU		SS	Jeremy Peña	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		3B	Isaac Paredes	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		LF	Zach Dezenzo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	HOU		C	Yainer Diaz	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		1B	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	HOU		RF	Taylor Trammell	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	HOU		CF	Lucas Spence	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIA	1	1B	Kyle Stowers	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	3	1	1	0.500
simulation	MIA	2	LF	Heriberto Hernández	5	5	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	3	0.400
simulation	MIA	3	2B	Xavier Edwards	5	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	MIA	4	DH	Liam Hicks	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	5	RF	Griffin Conine	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	MIA	6	CF	Jakob Marsee	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIA	7	C	Joe Mack	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	MIA	8	3B	Graham Pauley	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	MIA	9	SS	Javier Sanoja	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	HOU	1	SS	Jeremy Peña	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	HOU	3	3B	Isaac Paredes	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	HOU	4	2B	Jose Altuve	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	HOU	5	1B	LaMonte Wade Jr.	4	3	1	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	HOU	6	C	Yainer Diaz	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0.500
simulation	HOU	7	RF	Taylor Trammell	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	HOU	8	LF	Zach Dezenzo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	HOU	9	CF	Lucas Spence	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIA	1	Janson Junk	Starter	5.1	4	2	2	3	5	0	0	0	3.38	4.57	1.31
current	MIA	2	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	5.01	1.62
current	MIA	3	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.91	0.99
current	MIA	4	Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	7.42	1.52
current	MIA	5	Cade Gibson	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.91	1.36
current	HOU	1	Hunter Brown	Starter	4.2	3	1	1	2	9	0	0	0	1.93	4.05	1.45
current	HOU	2	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	5.62	1.56
current	HOU	3	Bryan King	Middle Reliever	1.0	5	3	3	0	1	1	0	0	27.00	3.40	1.31
current	HOU	4	Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.55	0.67
current	HOU	5	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.22	0.82
simulation	MIA	1	Janson Junk	Starter	5.1	4	2	2	3	5	0	23	91	3.38	4.57	1.31
simulation	MIA	2	Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	1	0	3	18	9.00	7.42	1.52
simulation	MIA	3	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	17	0.00	2.91	0.99
simulation	MIA	4	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	16	0.00	5.01	1.62
simulation	MIA	5	Cade Gibson	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	3	3	0.00	4.91	1.36
simulation	HOU	1	Hunter Brown	Starter	4.2	3	1	1	2	9	0	19	99	1.93	4.05	1.45
simulation	HOU	2	Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	21	0.00	0.55	0.67
simulation	HOU	3	Bryan King	Middle Reliever	1.0	5	3	3	0	1	1	8	28	27.00	3.40	1.31
simulation	HOU	4	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.22	0.82
simulation	HOU	5	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	4	16	9.00	5.62	1.56

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIA	Janson Junk	Starter	5.1	2	4	3	5	23	91
MIA	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	16
MIA	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	17
MIA	Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	18
MIA	Cade Gibson	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	0	1	3	3
HOU	Hunter Brown	Starter	4.2	1	3	2	9	19	99
HOU	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16
HOU	Bryan King	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	5	0	1	8	28
HOU	Josh Hader	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	0	5	21
HOU	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260720_MIN@CLE

20260720_MIN@CLE.json • 2026-07-20

MIN 2 - CLE 4

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result', 'simulation_winner_reversal'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result', 'simulation_winner_reversal'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result', 'simulation_winner_reversal'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=2, sim=4; R: current=0, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Chase DeLauter: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: SO current=1 box=0; Brayan Rocchio: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Rhys Hoskins: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Daniel Schneemann: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Patrick Bailey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; David Fry: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Byron Buxton: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1; Trevor Larnach: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Royce Lewis: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Josh Bell: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Victor Caratini: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Kody Clemens: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brooks Lee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alan Roden: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match MIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match MIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match MIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=35 matches MIN BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match CLE pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match CLE pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match CLE pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=33 matches CLE BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.613/0.826.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 4, CLE 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 2 - CLE 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIN.	{'winner_confidence': 0.51, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-09', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260709_CLE@MIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-08', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.63, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260708_CLE@MIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-07', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260707_CLE@MIN.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_MIN@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@CLE.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 2 - 4 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 2 - 4 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation winner reversal is traced: pre=MIN, final=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CLE wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-4, final 2-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match MIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match MIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match MIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=35 matches MIN BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match CLE pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match CLE pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match CLE pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=33 matches CLE BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.613/0.826.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 4, CLE 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 2 - CLE 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIN.	{'winner_confidence': 0.51, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-07-09', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260709_CLE@MIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-08', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.63, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260708_CLE@MIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-07-07', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260707_CLE@MIN.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_MIN@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@CLE.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 2 - 4 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 2 - 4 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation winner reversal is traced: pre=MIN, final=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CLE wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-4, final 2-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=2, sim=4; R: current=0, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Chase DeLauter: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Travis Bazzana: SO current=1 box=0; Brayan Rocchio: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Rhys Hoskins: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Daniel Schneemann: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Patrick Bailey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; David Fry: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Byron Buxton: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1; Trevor Larnach: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Royce Lewis: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Josh Bell: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Victor Caratini: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Kody Clemens: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brooks Lee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alan Roden: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	6.3960747718811035	4.598355293273926		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result
simulation_winner_reversal	2	4		Inning simulation reversed the pre-simulation winner; primary prediction fields were reconciled to the final simulation score.

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	4
CLE	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	4	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIN	batting	33	9	0	0	0	2	3	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIN	pitching		8			0		4	3	5					8.0	4	0	0
current	CLE	batting	31	9	0	0	0	2	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		4			2		2	2	9					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	MIN	batting	31	4	1	0	2	2	2	2	9	0	0
simulation	MIN	pitching		8			0		4	3	5					8.0	4	35	145
simulation	CLE	batting	31	8	3	0	0	4	4	3	5	1	0
simulation	CLE	pitching		4			2		2	2	9					9.0	2	33	149

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	MIN		CF	Byron Buxton	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	MIN		LF	Trevor Larnach	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIN		1B	Royce Lewis	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIN		DH	Josh Bell	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIN		C	Victor Caratini	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIN		2B	Kody Clemens	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIN		3B	Brooks Lee	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIN		RF	Alan Roden	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIN		SS	Ryan Kreidler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		LF	Steven Kwan	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	CLE		RF	Chase DeLauter	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		2B	Travis Bazzana	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CLE		DH	Rhys Hoskins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		3B	Daniel Schneemann	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		C	Patrick Bailey	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		1B	David Fry	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CLE		CF	Petey Halpin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	MIN	1	LF	Trevor Larnach	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	MIN	2	CF	Byron Buxton	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	MIN	3	2B	Kody Clemens	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	MIN	4	DH	Josh Bell	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	5	1B	Royce Lewis	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIN	6	C	Victor Caratini	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	MIN	7	3B	Brooks Lee	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	8	RF	Alan Roden	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	9	SS	Ryan Kreidler	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	1	LF	Steven Kwan	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	CLE	2	2B	Travis Bazzana	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	3	RF	Chase DeLauter	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	4	SS	Brayan Rocchio	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	CLE	5	DH	Rhys Hoskins	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	6	3B	Daniel Schneemann	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	7	1B	David Fry	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.333
simulation	CLE	8	C	Patrick Bailey	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	9	CF	Petey Halpin	3	3	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIN	1	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.2	5	1	1	1	5	0	0	0	1.59	2.85	1.05
current	MIN	2	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	1.1	3	3	3	2	0	0	0	0	20.25	3.26	1.23
current	MIN	3	Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.43	1.25
current	CLE	1	Tanner Bibee	Starter	5.2	4	2	2	1	4	2	0	0	3.18	3.90	1.15
current	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.78	1.08
current	CLE	3	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.49	0.77
current	CLE	4	Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	2.27	1.20
simulation	MIN	1	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.2	5	1	1	1	5	0	23	98	1.59	2.85	1.05
simulation	MIN	2	Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	14	0.00	3.43	1.25
simulation	MIN	3	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	1.1	3	3	3	2	0	0	9	33	20.25	3.26	1.23
simulation	CLE	1	Tanner Bibee	Starter	5.2	4	2	2	1	4	2	22	98	3.18	3.90	1.15
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	17	0.00	2.78	1.08
simulation	CLE	3	Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	0	4	17	0.00	2.27	1.20
simulation	CLE	4	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	1.49	0.77

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIN	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.2	1	5	1	5	23	98
MIN	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	1.1	3	3	2	0	9	33
MIN	Yoendrys Gómez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
CLE	Tanner Bibee	Starter	5.2	2	4	1	4	22	98
CLE	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17
CLE	Colin Holderman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
CLE	Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	3	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260720_NYM@MIL

20260720_NYM@MIL.json • 2026-07-20

NYM 1 - MIL 5

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=7; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brice Turang: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Christian Yelich: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Jackson Chourio: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; William Contreras: HR current=0 box=1; Garrett Mitchell: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Andrew Vaughn: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Cooper Pratt: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jake Bauers: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=3; R: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=2, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: A.J. Ewing: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Bo Bichette: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Juan Soto: AB current=4 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Francisco Lindor: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jorge Polanco: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jared Young: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Luis Robert Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Brett Baty: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match NYM pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match NYM pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=35 matches NYM BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match MIL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match MIL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match MIL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=37 matches MIL BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.441/0.622.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 3, MIL 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 1 - MIL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_NYM@MIL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@MIL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 1 - 5 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 1 - 5 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 5-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIL, final=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIL wins 5-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 1-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 1-5.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 1-5, final 1-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 5-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match NYM pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match NYM pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=35 matches NYM BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match MIL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match MIL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match MIL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=37 matches MIL BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.441/0.622.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 3, MIL 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 1 - MIL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for MIL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_NYM@MIL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@MIL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 1 - 5 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 1 - 5 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 5-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIL, final=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIL wins 5-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 1-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 1-5.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 1-5, final 1-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 5-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 6/10 = 0.600.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=7; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brice Turang: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Christian Yelich: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Jackson Chourio: AB current=5 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; William Contreras: HR current=0 box=1; Garrett Mitchell: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Andrew Vaughn: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Cooper Pratt: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jake Bauers: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=3; R: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=2, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: A.J. Ewing: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Bo Bichette: AB current=5 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Juan Soto: AB current=4 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Francisco Lindor: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jorge Polanco: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jared Young: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Luis Robert Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Brett Baty: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.02095627784729	6.733033657073975		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	7		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	1	5	0.660	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	1	5		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	1	5		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	1	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	1	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	3
MIL	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	5	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	NYM	batting	34	9	0	0	0	1	0	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	NYM	pitching		7			3		5	4	10					8.0	5	0	0
current	MIL	batting	33	9	0	0	0	4	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIL	pitching		3			0		1	6	4					9.0	1	0	0
simulation	NYM	batting	30	3	0	0	0	1	1	6	4	0	1
simulation	NYM	pitching		7			3		5	4	10					8.0	5	35	154
simulation	MIL	batting	31	7	0	0	3	5	5	4	10	0	0
simulation	MIL	pitching		3			0		1	6	4					9.0	1	37	153

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	NYM		RF	A.J. Ewing	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		3B	Bo Bichette	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	NYM		LF	Juan Soto	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		SS	Francisco Lindor	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		DH	Jorge Polanco	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		1B	Jared Young	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		CF	Luis Robert Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		2B	Brett Baty	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		C	Francisco Alvarez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		2B	Brice Turang	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		DH	Christian Yelich	0	5	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.200
current	MIL		LF	Jackson Chourio	0	5	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	MIL		C	William Contreras	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		CF	Garrett Mitchell	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		1B	Andrew Vaughn	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIL		SS	Cooper Pratt	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		RF	Jake Bauers	0	3	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		3B	Joey Ortiz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	NYM	1	RF	A.J. Ewing	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	2	LF	Juan Soto	4	2	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.500
simulation	NYM	3	3B	Bo Bichette	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	4	SS	Francisco Lindor	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	5	DH	Jorge Polanco	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	6	1B	Jared Young	4	4	2	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	NYM	7	CF	Luis Robert Jr.	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	NYM	8	2B	Brett Baty	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	9	C	Francisco Alvarez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	1	DH	Christian Yelich	4	4	1	1	1	1	0	3	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	2	LF	Jackson Chourio	4	4	1	1	1	2	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	3	2B	Brice Turang	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	4	C	William Contreras	4	4	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	5	CF	Garrett Mitchell	4	3	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	MIL	6	1B	Andrew Vaughn	4	4	2	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	MIL	7	RF	Jake Bauers	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	8	SS	Cooper Pratt	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	9	3B	Joey Ortiz	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	NYM	1	Freddy Peralta	Starter	4.1	6	5	5	3	6	3	0	0	10.38	4.66	1.44
current	NYM	3	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.02	0.82
current	NYM	4	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.02	1.15
current	NYM	6	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.13	1.53
current	MIL	1	Jacob Misiorowski	Starter	6.2	3	1	1	4	4	0	0	0	1.35	1.62	0.76
current	MIL	2	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.43	1.03
current	MIL	3	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.89	0.89
current	MIL	4	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.43	1.44
simulation	NYM	1	Freddy Peralta	Starter	4.1	6	5	5	3	6	3	22	97	10.38	4.66	1.44
simulation	NYM	2	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	20	0.00	4.13	1.53
simulation	NYM	3	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	2.02	0.82
simulation	NYM	4	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	20	0.00	2.02	1.15
simulation	MIL	1	Jacob Misiorowski	Starter	6.2	3	1	1	4	4	0	27	109	1.35	1.62	0.76
simulation	MIL	2	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	1.89	0.89
simulation	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	2.43	1.03
simulation	MIL	4	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	10	0.00	3.43	1.44

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
NYM	Freddy Peralta	Starter	4.1	5	6	3	6	22	97
NYM	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	17
NYM	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	0	5	20
NYM	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	20
MIL	Jacob Misiorowski	Starter	6.2	1	3	4	4	27	109
MIL	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
MIL	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
MIL	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	2	10

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260720_OAK@ARI

20260720_OAK@ARI.json • 2026-07-20

OAK 3 - ARI 5

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=8; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ketel Marte: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Waldschmidt: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Geraldo Perdomo: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ildemaro Vargas: R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Max Kepler: H current=1 box=0; Gabriel Moreno: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Nolan Arenado: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shea Langeliers: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Colby Thomas: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Jacob Wilson: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Tyler Soderstrom: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jonah Heim: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Tommy White: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Alika Williams: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Joshua Kuroda-Grauer: SO current=0 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match OAK pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=34 matches OAK BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match ARI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=34 matches ARI BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.436/0.617.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 7, ARI 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 3 - ARI 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ARI.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_OAK@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@ARI.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 138.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 150.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 150.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 138.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 3 - 5 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 3 - 5 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ARI, final=ARI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 1/10 (0.100).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ARI wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ARI wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 9/10 = 0.900.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 1/10 = 0.100.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match OAK pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=34 matches OAK BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match ARI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=34 matches ARI BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.340.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.660.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.436/0.617.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 7, ARI 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 3 - ARI 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ARI.	{'winner_confidence': 0.66, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_OAK@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@ARI.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 138.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 150.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 150.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 138.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 3 - 5 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 3 - 5 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ARI, final=ARI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.660.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 1/10 (0.100).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ARI wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ARI wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 9/10 = 0.900.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 1/10 = 0.100.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=8; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ketel Marte: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Waldschmidt: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Geraldo Perdomo: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ildemaro Vargas: R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Max Kepler: H current=1 box=0; Gabriel Moreno: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Nolan Arenado: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Corbin Carroll: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shea Langeliers: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Colby Thomas: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Jacob Wilson: AB current=5 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Tyler Soderstrom: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jonah Heim: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Tommy White: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Alika Williams: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Joshua Kuroda-Grauer: SO current=0 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.190278053283691	6.2561469078063965		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	6		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	2	6	0.660	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	2	6		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2	6		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	7
ARI	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	OAK	batting	33	9	0	0	0	2	2	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		8			2		5	2	7					8.0	5	0	0
current	ARI	batting	34	9	0	0	0	3	4	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	ARI	pitching		7			1		3	0	12					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	OAK	batting	34	7	2	0	1	3	3	0	12	0	0
simulation	OAK	pitching		8			2		5	2	7					8.0	5	34	138
simulation	ARI	batting	31	8	0	0	2	5	5	2	7	1	0
simulation	ARI	pitching		7			1		3	0	12					9.0	3	34	150

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	OAK		C	Shea Langeliers	0	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	OAK		RF	Colby Thomas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	OAK		SS	Jacob Wilson	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
current	OAK		LF	Tyler Soderstrom	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		DH	Jonah Heim	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	OAK		1B	Tommy White	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	OAK		2B	Alika Williams	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	OAK		3B	Joshua Kuroda-Grauer	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	OAK		CF	Henry Bolte	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ARI		DH	Ketel Marte	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		C	Ryan Waldschmidt	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		1B	Geraldo Perdomo	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	ARI		2B	Ildemaro Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		3B	Max Kepler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ARI		SS	Gabriel Moreno	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		LF	Nolan Arenado	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		CF	Corbin Carroll	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		RF	Tim Tawa	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	OAK	1	SS	Jacob Wilson	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	OAK	2	LF	Tyler Soderstrom	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	OAK	3	C	Shea Langeliers	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	OAK	4	RF	Colby Thomas	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	OAK	5	3B	Joshua Kuroda-Grauer	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	OAK	6	DH	Jonah Heim	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	OAK	7	1B	Tommy White	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	8	2B	Alika Williams	3	3	2	1	1	1	2	0	0	0.667
simulation	OAK	9	CF	Henry Bolte	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	ARI	1	CF	Ryan Waldschmidt	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.000
simulation	ARI	2	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	ARI	3	2B	Ketel Marte	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	4	1B	Ildemaro Vargas	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	ARI	5	C	Gabriel Moreno	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.500
simulation	ARI	6	3B	Nolan Arenado	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	7	RF	Corbin Carroll	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	ARI	8	LF	Max Kepler	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	ARI	9	LF	Tim Tawa	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	OAK	1	Jeffrey Springs	Starter	4.1	7	5	5	2	2	2	0	0	10.38	6.08	1.42
current	OAK	2	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.30	1.33
current	OAK	3	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	3.38	1.52
current	OAK	4	Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.28	1.31
current	OAK	5	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	5.79	1.21
current	ARI	1	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.2	5	2	2	0	9	1	0	0	2.70	2.45	1.23
current	ARI	2	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.43
current	ARI	4	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	27.00	9.00	2.00
current	ARI	5	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
simulation	OAK	1	Jeffrey Springs	Starter	4.1	7	5	5	2	2	2	22	89	10.38	6.08	1.42
simulation	OAK	2	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	18	0.00	5.79	1.21
simulation	OAK	3	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	12	0.00	3.38	1.52
simulation	OAK	4	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4	0.00	3.30	1.33
simulation	OAK	5	Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	4.28	1.31
simulation	ARI	1	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.2	5	2	2	0	9	1	25	99	2.70	2.45	1.23
simulation	ARI	2	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	0.00	0.00
simulation	ARI	3	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	0	2	19	27.00	9.00	2.00
simulation	ARI	4	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	16	0.00	0.00	0.43

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
OAK	Jeffrey Springs	Starter	4.1	5	7	2	2	22	89
OAK	Luis Medina	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	4
OAK	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	3	3	12
OAK	Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	15
OAK	Elvis Alvarado	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	1	0	1	2	18
ARI	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	6.2	2	5	0	9	25	99
ARI	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	16
ARI	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	1	0	0	2	19
ARI	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260720_PIT@NYY

20260720_PIT@NYY.json • 2026-07-20

PIT 5 - NYY 4

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=3; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Trent Grisham: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Paul Goldschmidt: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cody Bellinger: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Wells: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Jasson Domínguez: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: R current=1 box=0; Ryan McMahon: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Esmerlyn Valdez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan O'Hearn: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bryan Reynolds: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0; Marcell Ozuna: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Jared Triolo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Henry Davis: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match PIT pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match PIT pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=40 matches PIT BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match NYY pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match NYY pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match NYY pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=38 matches NYY BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.565.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.565.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.435.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.441/0.622.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PIT 7, NYY 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PIT 5 - NYY 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for PIT.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5651549056167713, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_PIT@NYY.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PIT@NYY.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PIT 5 - 4 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PIT 5 - 4 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=PIT, final=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.565.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match PIT pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match PIT pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=40 matches PIT BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match NYY pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match NYY pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match NYY pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=38 matches NYY BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.565.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.565.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.435.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.441/0.622.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PIT 7, NYY 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PIT 5 - NYY 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for PIT.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5651549056167713, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_PIT@NYY.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PIT@NYY.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PIT 5 - 4 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PIT 5 - 4 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=PIT, final=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.565.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 7/10 = 0.700.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=3; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Trent Grisham: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Paul Goldschmidt: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Cody Bellinger: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Wells: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Jasson Domínguez: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: R current=1 box=0; Ryan McMahon: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Esmerlyn Valdez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan O'Hearn: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Bryan Reynolds: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0; Marcell Ozuna: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Jared Triolo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Henry Davis: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.718873977661133	4.3032450675964355		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	2	0.565	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	2		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	2		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	2		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	5	7
NYY	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	4	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	PIT	batting	33	9	0	0	0	4	5	1	10	0	0	0	0
current	PIT	pitching		9			1		4	3	9					9.0	4	0	0
current	NYY	batting	33	9	0	0	0	2	3	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	NYY	pitching		7			2		5	4	9					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	PIT	batting	34	7	2	0	2	5	5	4	9	0	0
simulation	PIT	pitching		9			1		4	3	9					9.0	4	40	168
simulation	NYY	batting	35	9	1	0	1	4	4	3	9	1	1
simulation	NYY	pitching		7			2		5	4	9					9.0	5	38	162

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	PIT		RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
current	PIT		2B	Brandon Lowe	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		3B	Nick Gonzales	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		1B	Ryan O'Hearn	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		LF	Bryan Reynolds	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		DH	Marcell Ozuna	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		SS	Jared Triolo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	PIT		C	Henry Davis	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	PIT		CF	Billy Cook	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYY		DH	Ben Rice	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		CF	Trent Grisham	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		1B	Paul Goldschmidt	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		LF	Cody Bellinger	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		C	Austin Wells	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYY		RF	Jasson Domínguez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		3B	Ryan McMahon	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYY		SS	José Caballero	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	1	3B	Nick Gonzales	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	PIT	2	2B	Brandon Lowe	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	3	LF	Bryan Reynolds	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	4	RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	5	1B	Ryan O'Hearn	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	6	DH	Marcell Ozuna	4	4	2	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	PIT	7	SS	Jared Triolo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	8	C	Henry Davis	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	9	CF	Billy Cook	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	NYY	1	CF	Trent Grisham	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	NYY	2	DH	Ben Rice	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	0.000
simulation	NYY	3	1B	Paul Goldschmidt	5	4	1	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	4	LF	Cody Bellinger	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	NYY	5	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	6	RF	Jasson Domínguez	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	NYY	7	3B	Ryan McMahon	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	8	C	Austin Wells	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	9	SS	José Caballero	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	PIT	1	Braxton Ashcraft	Starter	5.2	7	3	3	1	8	1	0	0	4.76	3.49	1.11
current	PIT	2	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.27	1.36
current	PIT	3	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.32	1.01
current	PIT	4	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	3.46	1.21
current	NYY	1	Ryan Weathers	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	3	6	1	0	0	5.40	4.15	1.24
current	NYY	2	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	6.75	2.59	1.08
current	NYY	3	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.46	1.11
current	NYY	4	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	9.00	2.08	1.08
current	NYY	5	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.40	1.28
simulation	PIT	1	Braxton Ashcraft	Starter	5.2	7	3	3	1	8	1	26	108	4.76	3.49	1.11
simulation	PIT	2	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	21	0.00	3.32	1.01
simulation	PIT	3	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	4	16	9.00	3.46	1.21
simulation	PIT	4	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	23	0.00	3.27	1.36
simulation	NYY	1	Ryan Weathers	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	3	6	1	23	90	5.40	4.15	1.24
simulation	NYY	2	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	1	0	0	6	21	6.75	2.59	1.08
simulation	NYY	3	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	17	0.00	2.40	1.28
simulation	NYY	4	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	16	0.00	1.46	1.11
simulation	NYY	5	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	1	4	18	9.00	2.08	1.08

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
PIT	Braxton Ashcraft	Starter	5.2	3	7	1	8	26	108
PIT	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	0	5	23
PIT	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	2	0	5	21
PIT	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	16
NYY	Ryan Weathers	Starter	5.0	3	5	3	6	23	90
NYY	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	6	21
NYY	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
NYY	Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	2	4	18
NYY	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260720_SD@ATL

20260720_SD@ATL.json • 2026-07-20

SD 3 - ATL 5

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=10, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Matt Olson: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Drake Baldwin: AB current=5 box=4, H current=2 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Mauricio Dubón: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Joey Bart: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jim Jarvis: H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=9, sim=11; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ty France: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Manny Machado: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Gavin Sheets: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Fernando Tatis Jr.: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Freddy Fermin: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match SD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match SD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match SD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=39 matches SD BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match ATL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=34 matches ATL BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.401/0.625.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SD 7, ATL 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SD 3 - ATL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ATL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-06-24', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260624_ATL@SD.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_SD@ATL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SD@ATL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 3 - 5 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SD 3 - 5 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ATL, final=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match SD pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match SD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match SD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=39 matches SD BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match ATL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=34 matches ATL BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.401/0.625.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SD 7, ATL 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SD 3 - ATL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ATL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-06-24', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.53, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260624_ATL@SD.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_SD@ATL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SD@ATL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 3 - 5 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SD 3 - 5 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ATL, final=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=10, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=4; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Matt Olson: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Drake Baldwin: AB current=5 box=4, H current=2 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Mauricio Dubón: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Harris II: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Joey Bart: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jim Jarvis: H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=9, sim=11; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ty France: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Manny Machado: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Gavin Sheets: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Fernando Tatis Jr.: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Cronenworth: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Freddy Fermin: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.298835277557373	4.966014862060547		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.640	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	3	7
ATL	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	1	0	5	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SD	batting	31	9	0	0	0	3	1	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	SD	pitching		9			1		5	5	4					8.0	5	0	0
current	ATL	batting	34	10	0	0	0	5	5	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		7			1		3	0	11					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	SD	batting	33	7	1	0	1	3	3	0	11	1	0
simulation	SD	pitching		9			1		5	5	4					8.0	5	39	160
simulation	ATL	batting	33	9	1	0	1	5	5	5	4	0	1
simulation	ATL	pitching		7			1		3	0	11					9.0	3	34	153

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	SD		1B	Ty France	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		CF	Jackson Merrill	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		3B	Manny Machado	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		LF	Gavin Sheets	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		DH	Xander Bogaerts	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	SD		RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		2B	Jake Cronenworth	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		C	Freddy Fermin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		SS	Sung-Mun Song	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		DH	Drake Baldwin	0	5	2	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.400
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		LF	Mauricio Dubón	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		CF	Michael Harris II	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		C	Joey Bart	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ATL		SS	Jim Jarvis	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ATL		RF	Eli White	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	SD	1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	SD	2	CF	Jackson Merrill	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	SD	3	3B	Manny Machado	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SD	4	1B	Ty France	4	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	SD	5	LF	Gavin Sheets	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	SD	6	DH	Xander Bogaerts	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	SD	7	2B	Jake Cronenworth	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	8	C	Freddy Fermin	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	SD	9	SS	Sung-Mun Song	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	ATL	1	DH	Drake Baldwin	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	2	2B	Ozzie Albies	5	5	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	ATL	3	1B	Matt Olson	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	4	3B	Austin Riley	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	ATL	5	CF	Michael Harris II	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	ATL	6	LF	Mauricio Dubón	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	ATL	7	C	Joey Bart	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	8	SS	Jim Jarvis	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	ATL	9	RF	Eli White	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SD	1	JP Sears	Starter	5.0	7	4	4	2	3	0	0	0	7.20	5.03	1.42
current	SD	2	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.46	1.12
current	SD	3	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	9.00	2.18	1.14
current	SD	4	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.89	0.84
current	ATL	1	Bryce Elder	Starter	5.1	6	3	3	0	7	1	0	0	5.06	4.12	1.25
current	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.81	0.74
current	ATL	4	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.36	1.05
current	ATL	5	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.24	1.26
simulation	SD	1	JP Sears	Starter	5.0	7	4	4	2	3	0	24	103	7.20	5.03	1.42
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	0.89	0.84
simulation	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	6	20	0.00	3.46	1.12
simulation	SD	4	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	1	5	20	9.00	2.18	1.14
simulation	ATL	1	Bryce Elder	Starter	5.1	6	3	3	0	7	1	22	97	5.06	4.12	1.25
simulation	ATL	2	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	24	0.00	2.36	1.05
simulation	ATL	3	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	16	0.00	1.81	0.74
simulation	ATL	4	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	4.24	1.26

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SD	JP Sears	Starter	5.0	4	7	2	3	24	103
SD	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	6	20
SD	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	5	20
SD	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
ATL	Bryce Elder	Starter	5.1	3	6	0	7	22	97
ATL	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	16
ATL	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	5	24
ATL	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260720_SF@KC

20260720_SF@KC.json • 2026-07-20

SF 5 - KC 3

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lane Thomas: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Carter Jensen: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jac Caglianone: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Josh Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Vinnie Pasquantino: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Michael Massey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Eldridge: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Heliot Ramos: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Rafael Devers: AB current=4 box=2, BB current=0 box=2; Jung Hoo Lee: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Casey Schmitt: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Willy Adames: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Drew Gilbert: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match SF pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match SF pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=37 matches SF BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match KC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match KC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match KC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=39 matches KC BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.401/0.625.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 7, KC 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 5 - KC 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SF.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for SF.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_SF@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@KC.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 189.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 189.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 5 - 3 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 5 - 3 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SF wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=SF, final=SF.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SF wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SF wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 5-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SF wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match SF pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match SF pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=37 matches SF BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match KC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match KC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match KC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=39 matches KC BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.401/0.625.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 7, KC 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 5 - KC 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SF.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for SF.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_SF@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@KC.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 189.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 189.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 5 - 3 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 5 - 3 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SF wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=SF, final=SF.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SF wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SF wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 5-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SF wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lane Thomas: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Carter Jensen: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=5 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jac Caglianone: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Josh Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Vinnie Pasquantino: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Michael Massey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Eldridge: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Heliot Ramos: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Rafael Devers: AB current=4 box=2, BB current=0 box=2; Jung Hoo Lee: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Casey Schmitt: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Willy Adames: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Drew Gilbert: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.220763683319092	5.08480167388916		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.640	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	4	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	5	7
KC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SF	batting	35	9	0	0	0	2	6	1	7	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		8			1		3	2	3					9.0	3	0	0
current	KC	batting	33	9	0	0	0	1	2	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		7			2		5	5	9					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	SF	batting	34	7	2	0	2	5	5	5	9	0	0
simulation	SF	pitching		8			1		3	2	3					9.0	3	37	132
simulation	KC	batting	34	8	2	0	1	3	3	2	3	1	0
simulation	KC	pitching		7			2		5	5	9					9.0	5	39	189

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	SF		1B	Bryce Eldridge	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	SF		LF	Heliot Ramos	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	SF		DH	Rafael Devers	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	SF		RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	SF		2B	Luis Arraez	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
current	SF		3B	Casey Schmitt	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	SF		SS	Willy Adames	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	SF		CF	Drew Gilbert	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SF		C	Daniel Susac	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	KC		CF	Lane Thomas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	KC		C	Carter Jensen	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	KC		SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	KC		RF	Jac Caglianone	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	KC		3B	Josh Rojas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	KC		1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	KC		2B	Michael Massey	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	KC		DH	Salvador Perez	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	KC		LF	Isaac Collins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	SF	1	2B	Luis Arraez	5	5	3	0	2	1	3	0	0	0.600
simulation	SF	2	1B	Bryce Eldridge	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0.000
simulation	SF	3	3B	Casey Schmitt	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	SF	4	DH	Rafael Devers	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	0.500
simulation	SF	5	LF	Heliot Ramos	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	SF	6	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	7	SS	Willy Adames	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	SF	8	CF	Drew Gilbert	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	SF	9	C	Daniel Susac	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	KC	1	C	Carter Jensen	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	KC	2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	KC	3	RF	Jac Caglianone	4	4	3	1	1	1	2	0	0	0.750
simulation	KC	4	CF	Lane Thomas	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.667
simulation	KC	5	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	KC	6	DH	Salvador Perez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	KC	7	2B	Michael Massey	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	KC	8	3B	Josh Rojas	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	KC	9	LF	Isaac Collins	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SF	1	Trevor McDonald	Starter	5.0	7	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	3.60	5.02	1.30
current	SF	2	JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.87	1.13
current	SF	3	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.92	1.26
current	SF	4	Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.00	2.86	1.34
current	SF	5	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.06	0.99
current	KC	1	Michael Wacha	Starter	6.1	4	4	4	2	8	2	0	0	5.68	3.77	1.19
current	KC	2	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0.00	6.00	1.51
current	KC	3	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.23	0.94
current	KC	4	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	13.50	4.70	1.57
current	KC	5	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		3.38	1.29
simulation	SF	1	Trevor McDonald	Starter	5.0	7	2	2	1	1	1	23	88	3.60	5.02	1.30
simulation	SF	2	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	16	0.00	3.92	1.26
simulation	SF	3	Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	0	5	7	9.00	2.86	1.34
simulation	SF	4	JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	4	0.00	2.87	1.13
simulation	SF	5	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	17	0.00	3.06	0.99
simulation	KC	1	Michael Wacha	Starter	6.1	4	4	4	2	8	2	25	112	5.68	3.77	1.19
simulation	KC	2	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	27	0.00	6.00	1.51
simulation	KC	3	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	2.23	0.94
simulation	KC	4	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	1	1	1	1	0	5	18	13.50	4.70	1.57
simulation	KC	5	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16		3.38	1.29

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SF	Trevor McDonald	Starter	5.0	2	7	1	1	23	88
SF	JT Brubaker	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	4
SF	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
SF	Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	5	7
SF	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	17
KC	Michael Wacha	Starter	6.1	4	4	2	8	25	112
KC	Alex Lange	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	2	0	5	27
KC	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
KC	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	2	1	1	5	18
KC	John Schreiber	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260720_STL@LAA

20260720_STL@LAA.json • 2026-07-20

STL 7 - LAA 1

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result', 'simulation_drift_review'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result', 'simulation_drift_review'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result', 'simulation_drift_review'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Zach Neto: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jorge Soler: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Nolan Schanuel: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Josh Lowe: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Vaughn Grissom: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Logan O'Hoppe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=9, sim=10; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Wetherholt: AB current=5 box=4, BB current=0 box=1; Alec Burleson: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4; Iván Herrera: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Lars Nootbaar: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Masyn Winn: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Blaze Jordan: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match STL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match STL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=39 matches STL BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match LAA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match LAA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=40 matches LAA BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.464/0.650.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 10, LAA 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 7 - LAA 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for STL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_STL@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@LAA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 7 - 1 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 7 - 1 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 7-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=STL, final=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: STL wins 7-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 7-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-1.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-1, final 7-1 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 7-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match STL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match STL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=39 matches STL BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match LAA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match LAA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=40 matches LAA BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.640.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.360.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.464/0.650.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 10, LAA 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 7 - LAA 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for STL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.64, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_STL@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@LAA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 7 - 1 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 7 - 1 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 7-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=STL, final=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.640.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: STL wins 7-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 7-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-1.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-1, final 7-1 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 7-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Zach Neto: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jorge Soler: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Nolan Schanuel: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Josh Lowe: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Vaughn Grissom: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Logan O'Hoppe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=9, sim=10; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Wetherholt: AB current=5 box=4, BB current=0 box=1; Alec Burleson: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4; Iván Herrera: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Lars Nootbaar: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Masyn Winn: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Blaze Jordan: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.5701894760131836	5.511582851409912		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.640	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	4		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	4		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7	1		Final inning-by-inning simulation result
simulation_drift_review	7	1		Simulation drift exceeded tolerance; organic play-by-play was kept without synthetic run adjustments.

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	1	0	7	10
LAA	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	STL	batting	33	9	0	0	0	4	5	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		8			0		1	4	8					9.0	1	0	0
current	LAA	batting	35	9	0	0	0	2	2	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	LAA	pitching		10			1		7	3	7					9.0	7	0	0
simulation	STL	batting	36	10	0	1	1	7	7	3	7	1	0
simulation	STL	pitching		8			0		1	4	8					9.0	1	39	155
simulation	LAA	batting	35	8	1	0	0	1	1	4	8	0	0
simulation	LAA	pitching		10			1		7	3	7					9.0	7	40	176

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	STL		2B	JJ Wetherholt	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	STL		1B	Alec Burleson	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	STL		RF	Jordan Walker	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	STL		DH	Iván Herrera	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	STL		LF	Lars Nootbaar	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
current	STL		SS	Masyn Winn	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	STL		3B	Blaze Jordan	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
current	STL		CF	Nathan Church	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	STL		C	Jimmy Crooks	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAA		SS	Zach Neto	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	LAA		DH	Jorge Soler	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		1B	Nolan Schanuel	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		CF	Mike Trout	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	LAA		LF	Josh Lowe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAA		3B	Denzer Guzman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		2B	Vaughn Grissom	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		RF	Jo Adell	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		C	Logan O'Hoppe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	STL	1	2B	JJ Wetherholt	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	STL	2	DH	Iván Herrera	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	STL	3	1B	Alec Burleson	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	STL	4	RF	Jordan Walker	5	5	2	0	0	1	1	4	0	1	0.400
simulation	STL	5	LF	Lars Nootbaar	4	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	STL	6	SS	Masyn Winn	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	STL	7	CF	Nathan Church	4	4	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	STL	8	3B	Blaze Jordan	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	STL	9	C	Jimmy Crooks	4	2	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	1	SS	Zach Neto	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAA	2	CF	Mike Trout	5	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.600
simulation	LAA	3	1B	Nolan Schanuel	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	4	DH	Jorge Soler	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.500
simulation	LAA	5	2B	Vaughn Grissom	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	6	LF	Josh Lowe	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	LAA	7	RF	Jo Adell	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	LAA	8	3B	Denzer Guzman	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	LAA	9	C	Logan O'Hoppe	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	STL	1	Kyle Leahy	Starter	5.0	7	1	1	3	4	0	0	0	1.80	3.73	1.41
current	STL	2	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.40	1.09
current	STL	3	Gordon Graceffo	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.17	1.08
current	STL	4	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.35	1.14
current	STL	5	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.58	1.47
current	LAA	1	José Soriano	Starter	5.1	9	4	4	3	3	1	0	0	6.75	3.49	1.29
current	LAA	2	Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.32	1.02
current	LAA	3	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	18.00	3.91	1.20
current	LAA	4	Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.95	1.25
current	LAA	5	Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	13.50	2.76	0.92
current	LAA	6	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		2.95	1.39
simulation	STL	1	Kyle Leahy	Starter	5.0	7	1	1	3	4	0	25	96	1.80	3.73	1.41
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	14	0.00	3.35	1.14
simulation	STL	3	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.40	1.09
simulation	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	14	0.00	4.58	1.47
simulation	STL	5	Gordon Graceffo	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	14	0.00	3.17	1.08
simulation	LAA	1	José Soriano	Starter	5.1	9	4	4	3	3	1	28	106	6.75	3.49	1.29
simulation	LAA	2	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	2	0	1	0	3	18	18.00	3.91	1.20
simulation	LAA	3	Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.32	1.02
simulation	LAA	4	Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	16	0.00	3.95	1.25
simulation	LAA	5	Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	0	3	5	13.50	2.76	0.92
simulation	LAA	6	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18		2.95	1.39

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
STL	Kyle Leahy	Starter	5.0	1	7	3	4	25	96
STL	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
STL	Gordon Graceffo	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	14
STL	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
STL	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	14
LAA	José Soriano	Starter	5.1	4	9	3	3	28	106
LAA	Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
LAA	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	1	3	18
LAA	Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	16
LAA	Samy Natera Jr.	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	0	1	3	5
LAA	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	18

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260720_TB@TOR

20260720_TB@TOR.json • 2026-07-20

TB 3 - TOR 2

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result', 'simulation_winner_reversal'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result', 'simulation_winner_reversal'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result', 'simulation_winner_reversal'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=6, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Junior Caminero: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jonathan Aranda: RBI current=1 box=0; Cedric Mullins: AB current=4 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Victor Mesa Jr.: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Richie Palacios: AB current=3 box=4; Nick Fortes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=5; RBI: current=1, sim=2; R: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Nathan Lukes: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1; Ernie Clement: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; George Springer: H current=1 box=0; Alejandro Kirk: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Andrés Giménez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Daulton Varsho: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match TOR pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match TOR pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match TOR pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=37 matches TOR BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match TB pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match TB pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=38 matches TB BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 5.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.582/0.789.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 6, TOR 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 3 - TOR 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TOR.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TOR.	{'winner_confidence': 0.51, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_TB@TOR.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@TOR.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 3 - 2 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 3 - 2 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 3-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation winner reversal is traced: pre=TOR, final=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TB wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-2, final 3-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 3-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match TOR pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match TOR pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match TOR pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=37 matches TOR BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match TB pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match TB pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=38 matches TB BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 5.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.582/0.789.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 6, TOR 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 3 - TOR 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TOR.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TOR.	{'winner_confidence': 0.51, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_TB@TOR.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@TOR.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 3 - 2 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 3 - 2 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 3-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation winner reversal is traced: pre=TOR, final=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TB wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-2, final 3-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 3-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=6, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Junior Caminero: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jonathan Aranda: RBI current=1 box=0; Cedric Mullins: AB current=4 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Victor Mesa Jr.: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Richie Palacios: AB current=3 box=4; Nick Fortes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=5; RBI: current=1, sim=2; R: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1; Nathan Lukes: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1; Ernie Clement: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; George Springer: H current=1 box=0; Alejandro Kirk: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Andrés Giménez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Daulton Varsho: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.163710594177246	5.185390472412109		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	2	3	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	1	3		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	1	3		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	1	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result
simulation_winner_reversal	3	2		Inning simulation reversed the pre-simulation winner; primary prediction fields were reconciled to the final simulation score.

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	6
TOR	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TB	batting	32	9	0	0	1	2	1	6	0	0	0	0
current	TB	pitching		9				2	2	10					9.0	2	0	0
current	TOR	batting	34	9	0	0	1	1	0	6	0	0	0	0
current	TOR	pitching		6				3	3	3					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	TB	batting	33	6	2	1	3	3	3	3	0	1
simulation	TB	pitching		9				2	2	10					9.0	2	38	158
simulation	TOR	batting	36	9	5	0	2	2	2	10	0	0
simulation	TOR	pitching		6				3	3	3					9.0	3	37	139

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TB		3B	Junior Caminero	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		1B	Jonathan Aranda	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		CF	Cedric Mullins	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		DH	Yandy Díaz	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	TB		LF	Chandler Simpson	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TB		RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		2B	Richie Palacios	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TB		C	Nick Fortes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TB		SS	Taylor Walls	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TOR		1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		RF	Nathan Lukes	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		2B	Ernie Clement	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
current	TOR		DH	George Springer	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		C	Alejandro Kirk	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TOR		SS	Andrés Giménez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TOR		3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		CF	Daulton Varsho	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		LF	Myles Straw	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	TB	1	DH	Yandy Díaz	5	5	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	TB	2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TB	3	3B	Junior Caminero	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TB	4	CF	Cedric Mullins	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	TB	5	LF	Chandler Simpson	4	4	2	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TB	6	RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	TB	7	2B	Richie Palacios	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TB	8	C	Nick Fortes	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TB	9	SS	Taylor Walls	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	1	2B	Ernie Clement	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	TOR	2	RF	Nathan Lukes	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	TOR	3	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	TOR	4	DH	George Springer	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	5	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	6	CF	Daulton Varsho	4	3	2	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	TOR	7	C	Alejandro Kirk	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	8	SS	Andrés Giménez	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TOR	9	LF	Myles Straw	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TB	1	Nick Martinez	Starter	6.0	8	2	2	1	8	0	0	3.00	2.65	1.12
current	TB	2	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	2.33	0.91
current	TB	3	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	1.73	0.83
current	TB	4	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.86	1.36
current	TOR	1	Dylan Cease	Starter	6.0	1	2	2	3	3	0	0	3.00	2.56	1.13
current	TOR	2	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.46	1.39
current	TOR	3	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.08	0.96
current	TOR	4	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.00	1.61	1.12
simulation	TB	1	Nick Martinez	Starter	6.0	8	2	2	1	8	27	104	3.00	2.65	1.12
simulation	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	14	0.00	1.73	0.83
simulation	TB	3	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	6	24	0.00	2.33	0.91
simulation	TB	4	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	2	16	0.00	3.86	1.36
simulation	TOR	1	Dylan Cease	Starter	6.0	1	2	2	3	3	23	101	3.00	2.56	1.13
simulation	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	4	18	0.00	1.08	0.96
simulation	TOR	3	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	6	6	9.00	1.61	1.12
simulation	TOR	4	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	4	14	0.00	4.46	1.39

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TB	Nick Martinez	Starter	6.0	2	8	1	8	27	104
TB	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	1	6	24
TB	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	14
TB	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	16
TOR	Dylan Cease	Starter	6.0	2	1	3	3	23	101
TOR	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	14
TOR	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	18
TOR	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	3	0	0	6	6

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260720_WAS@COL

20260720_WAS@COL.json • 2026-07-20

WAS 4 - COL 2

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'].		['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break']
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=6; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Carrigg: HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Hunter Goodman: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jake McCarthy: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; TJ Rumfield: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Willi Castro: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Braxton Fulford: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Tovar: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=2; R: current=7, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Curtis Mead: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Andrés Chaparro: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; James Wood: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jacob Young: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Harry Ford: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match WAS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match WAS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match WAS pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=37 matches WAS BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match COL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match COL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match COL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=38 matches COL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.630.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.630.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.370.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.422/0.600.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 9, COL 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 4 - COL 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: WAS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for WAS.	{'winner_confidence': 0.63, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_WAS@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@COL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 175.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 175.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 4 - 2 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 4 - 2 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: WAS wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=WAS, final=WAS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.630.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: WAS wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: WAS wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-2, final 4-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: WAS wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match WAS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match WAS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match WAS pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=37 matches WAS BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match COL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match COL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match COL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=38 matches COL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.630.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.630.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.370.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 6.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.422/0.600.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 9, COL 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 4 - COL 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: WAS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for WAS.	{'winner_confidence': 0.63, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260720_WAS@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@COL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 175.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 175.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 4 - 2 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 4 - 2 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: WAS wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=WAS, final=WAS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.630.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: WAS wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: WAS wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-2.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-2, final 4-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: WAS wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 3/10 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=6; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Carrigg: HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Hunter Goodman: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jake McCarthy: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; TJ Rumfield: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Willi Castro: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Braxton Fulford: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Tovar: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=2; R: current=7, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Curtis Mead: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Andrés Chaparro: AB current=3 box=2, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; James Wood: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jacob Young: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Harry Ford: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	6.494261264801025	6.2123613357543945		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	7	6		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	2	0.630	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	2		Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	2		Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5	2		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	4	9
COL	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	WAS	batting	31	9	0	0	0	4	7	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	WAS	pitching		6			2		2	4	8					9.0	2	0	0
current	COL	batting	33	9	0	0	0	5	4	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	COL	pitching		9			0		4	2	8					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	WAS	batting	36	9	2	0	0	4	4	2	8	0	0
simulation	WAS	pitching		6			2		2	4	8					9.0	2	37	175
simulation	COL	batting	33	6	0	0	2	2	2	4	8	0	0
simulation	COL	pitching		9			0		4	2	8					9.0	4	38	159

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	WAS		3B	Curtis Mead	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	WAS		DH	Andrés Chaparro	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.333
current	WAS		RF	James Wood	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	WAS		SS	CJ Abrams	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		LF	Dylan Crews	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		CF	Jacob Young	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	WAS		C	Harry Ford	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		1B	Luis García Jr.	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	WAS		2B	Nasim Nuñez	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	COL		CF	Cole Carrigg	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		DH	Hunter Goodman	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		LF	Jake McCarthy	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		3B	Kyle Karros	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	COL		1B	TJ Rumfield	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		2B	Willi Castro	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	COL		C	Braxton Fulford	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	COL		RF	Tyler Freeman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	COL		SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	WAS	1	RF	James Wood	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	2	3B	Curtis Mead	5	5	1	1	0	1	1	0	3	0.200
simulation	WAS	3	DH	Andrés Chaparro	4	2	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	0.500
simulation	WAS	4	SS	CJ Abrams	4	4	3	1	0	1	2	0	0	0.750
simulation	WAS	5	LF	Dylan Crews	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	WAS	6	CF	Jacob Young	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	WAS	7	C	Harry Ford	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	WAS	8	1B	Luis García Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	WAS	9	2B	Nasim Nuñez	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	COL	1	LF	Jake McCarthy	5	4	2	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	COL	2	3B	Kyle Karros	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	COL	3	CF	Cole Carrigg	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	COL	4	DH	Hunter Goodman	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	COL	5	1B	TJ Rumfield	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	COL	6	2B	Willi Castro	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	COL	7	C	Braxton Fulford	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	COL	8	RF	Tyler Freeman	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	COL	9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	WAS	1	Andrew Alvarez	Starter	4.1	4	0	0	3	6	2	0	0	0.00	4.04	1.45
current	WAS	2	Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.14	1.22
current	WAS	3	Justin Lawrence	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	6.55	1.86
current	WAS	4	Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.90	1.23
current	WAS	5	Riley Cornelio	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	9.00	6.75	1.98
current	COL	1	Kyle Freeland	Starter	4.2	8	4	4	1	4	0	0	0	7.71	7.36	1.57
current	COL	2	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.31	1.22
current	COL	3	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	5.65	1.58
current	COL	4	Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.97	1.58
simulation	WAS	1	Andrew Alvarez	Starter	4.1	4	0	0	3	6	2	20	79	0.00	4.04	1.45
simulation	WAS	2	Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	21	0.00	3.14	1.22
simulation	WAS	3	Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	18	0.00	3.90	1.23
simulation	WAS	4	Justin Lawrence	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	4	21	9.00	6.55	1.86
simulation	WAS	5	Riley Cornelio	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	1	1	0	4	36	9.00	6.75	1.98
simulation	COL	1	Kyle Freeland	Starter	4.2	8	4	4	1	4	0	23	93	7.71	7.36	1.57
simulation	COL	2	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6	25	0.00	3.31	1.22
simulation	COL	3	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	0	5	21	0.00	5.65	1.58
simulation	COL	4	Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	20	0.00	4.97	1.58

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
WAS	Andrew Alvarez	Starter	4.1	0	4	3	6	20	79
WAS	Clayton Beeter	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	21
WAS	Justin Lawrence	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	21
WAS	Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	18
WAS	Riley Cornelio	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	1	1	4	36
COL	Kyle Freeland	Starter	4.2	4	8	1	4	23	93
COL	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	1	6	25
COL	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	2	5	21
COL	Jordan Romano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	20

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	warning	1	0	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.