20260716_NYM@PHI
20260716_NYM@PHI.json • 2026-07-16
NYM 4 - PHI 3
WARNINGFinal simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.
CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7
Action summary - what to fix first
| Level | Problem group / fix | Count | Teams | Example |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WARN | Score Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule. | 0C / 0E / 1W | - | Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result']. |
Problems table - exact rows
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WARN | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result']. | ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break'] |
All findings - complete audit trail
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WARN | score | SCORE_STEP_ORDER | Score evolution steps differ from expected order: ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'embedded_savant_run_environment', 'fundamental_edge_target_review', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result']. | ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'simulation_result'] or ['historical_ml', 'variance_applied', 'enhanced_prediction', 'capped_target', 'score_target_reconciliation', 'simulation_result']; optional steps allowed: ['embedded_savant_run_environment', 'target_tie_break'] | ||||
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=1, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: A.J. Ewing: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: AB current=4 box=5, 3B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Juan Soto: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Francisco Lindor: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Carson Benge: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jorge Polanco: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jared Young: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brett Baty: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=40; H: current=9, sim=13; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=3). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Trea Turner: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Alec Bohm: H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Gabriel Rincones Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=3; J.T. Realmuto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. | |||||
| PASS | batting | current | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting walks match PHI pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting home runs match PHI pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting hits match PHI pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYM PA=39 matches PHI BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting walks match NYM pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting home runs match NYM pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting hits match NYM pitching: 13. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:PHI PA=43 matches NYM BF=43. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYM current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | PHI current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.440/0.622. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 7, PHI 13. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 4 - PHI 3. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYM. | {'winner_confidence': 0.51, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-06-28', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.519699, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260628_PHI@NYM.json'}, {'date': '2026-06-27', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260627_PHI@NYM.json'}, {'date': '2026-06-26', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.525, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260626_PHI@NYM.json'}]}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260716_NYM@PHI. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@PHI. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 185. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 185. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | current:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 4 - 3 PHI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 4 - 3 PHI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYM, final=NYM. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary is consistent: NYM wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: NYM wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score. | New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYM wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | PHI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Passed checks
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PASS | batting | current | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | current | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | NYM | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting | simulation | PHI | BATTING_REALISM | simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | current | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | NYM | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | batting_totals | simulation | PHI | BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting walks match PHI pitching: 5. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting home runs match PHI pitching: 2. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting hits match PHI pitching: 7. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 11. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:NYM PA=39 matches PHI BF=39. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | NYM | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting walks match NYM pitching: 3. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting home runs match NYM pitching: 1. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting hits match NYM pitching: 13. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 10. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | PA_BF_MATCH | simulation:PHI PA=43 matches NYM BF=43. | |||
| PASS | boxscore_crosscheck | simulation | PHI | RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | cross_schema | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | NYM current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | PHI current hitter names are populated. | |||
| PASS | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. | |||
| PASS | data_leakage | H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score analysis factors are non-negative. | |||||
| PASS | enhanced_prediction | LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.440/0.622. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNINGS_COUNT | inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_PLAY_SUMS | Detailed play totals match every half-inning line. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_SEQUENCE | Inning numbers are sequential. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_HITS | Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 7, PHI 13. | |||||
| PASS | innings | INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 4 - PHI 3. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM. | |||||
| PASS | matchup_recency | MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYM. | {'winner_confidence': 0.51, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-06-28', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.519699, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260628_PHI@NYM.json'}, {'date': '2026-06-27', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260627_PHI@NYM.json'}, {'date': '2026-06-26', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.525, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260626_PHI@NYM.json'}]}} | ||||
| PASS | metadata | DATE_PARSE | Date is valid ISO format: 2026-07-16. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | Filename matches game_id: 20260716_NYM@PHI. | |||||
| PASS | metadata | FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@PHI. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_by_pitch | PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 185. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162. | |||||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | NYM | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 185. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score. | |||
| PASS | pitch_count | simulation | PHI | PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | current:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | current | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | current:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | NYM | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_REALISM | simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints. | |||
| PASS | pitching | simulation | PHI | STARTER_PRESENT | simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | current | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | NYM | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0. | |||
| PASS | pitching_totals | simulation | PHI | PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields. | |||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 4 - 3 PHI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 4 - 3 PHI. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | prediction_comparison | SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYM, final=NYM. | |||||
| PASS | probability | CONFIDENCE_RANGE | Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510. | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500). | |||||
| PASS | recent_form | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400). | |||||
| PASS | report | REPORT_COMPLETE | All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report. | |||||
| PASS | schema | SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison. | |||||
| PASS | score | GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | game_summary is consistent: NYM wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_NO_TIE | Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0). | |||||
| PASS | score | TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | total_runs field matches final score total: 7. | |||||
| PASS | score | WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | winner field is consistent: NYM wins 4-3. | |||||
| PASS | score | cross-schema | CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score. | New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | NYM | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | NYM wins and win_pct agree: 5/10 = 0.500. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | RECENT_FORM_RANGE | PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges. | |||
| PASS | team_recent_performance | current | PHI | TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | PHI wins and win_pct agree: 4/10 = 0.400. |
Info/context findings
| Severity | Category | Source | Team | Player | Rule | Message | Value | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFO | current_payload | current | NYM | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_payload | current | PHI | CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit. | |||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=1, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=5). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | NYM | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: A.J. Ewing: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: AB current=4 box=5, 3B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Juan Soto: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Francisco Lindor: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Carson Benge: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jorge Polanco: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jared Young: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brett Baty: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=40; H: current=9, sim=13; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=3). | New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score. | ||
| INFO | current_vs_final | cross-schema | PHI | CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Trea Turner: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Alec Bohm: H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Gabriel Rincones Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=3; J.T. Realmuto: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1 | New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw. | ||
| INFO | score_reconciliation | RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game. |
Score evolution
| step | away_runs | home_runs | confidence | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| historical_ml | 6.4359965324401855 | 3.519150972366333 | Base ML historical model prediction | |
| variance_applied | 6 | 3 | Random variance applied (0.9-1.1) | |
| enhanced_prediction | 5 | 3 | 0.510 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis |
| embedded_savant_run_environment | 5 | 3 | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality | |
| fundamental_edge_target_review | 5 | 3 | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments | |
| capped_target | 5 | 3 | Capped at max 12 realistic runs | |
| simulation_result | 4 | 3 | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
Inning-by-inning linescore
| team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
Team totals - current + final simulation
| src | team | type | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | R | BB | SO | SF | HBP | SB | CS | IP | ER | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | NYM | batting | 33 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | NYM | pitching | 13 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| current | PHI | batting | 34 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| current | PHI | pitching | 7 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 9.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||
| simulation | NYM | batting | 34 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | NYM | pitching | 13 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 9.0 | 3 | 43 | 185 | |||||||||
| simulation | PHI | batting | 40 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | |||||||
| simulation | PHI | pitching | 7 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 9.0 | 4 | 39 | 162 |
Batting lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | pos | name | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | R | RBI | BB | SO | HBP | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | NYM | CF | A.J. Ewing | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | 3B | Bo Bichette | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | LF | Juan Soto | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | SS | Francisco Lindor | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | RF | Carson Benge | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | DH | Jorge Polanco | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | NYM | 1B | Jared Young | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYM | 2B | Brett Baty | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | NYM | C | Francisco Alvarez | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | PHI | 1B | Bryce Harper | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | SS | Trea Turner | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 | |
| current | PHI | DH | Kyle Schwarber | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | LF | Brandon Marsh | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | 2B | Bryson Stott | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | 3B | Alec Bohm | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | |
| current | PHI | RF | Gabriel Rincones Jr. | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | PHI | C | J.T. Realmuto | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| current | PHI | CF | Justin Crawford | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| simulation | NYM | 1 | CF | A.J. Ewing | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | NYM | 2 | LF | Juan Soto | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYM | 3 | 3B | Bo Bichette | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | NYM | 4 | SS | Francisco Lindor | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | NYM | 5 | RF | Carson Benge | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | NYM | 6 | DH | Jorge Polanco | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYM | 7 | 1B | Jared Young | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| simulation | NYM | 8 | 2B | Brett Baty | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 |
| simulation | NYM | 9 | C | Francisco Alvarez | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | PHI | 1 | SS | Trea Turner | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | PHI | 2 | DH | Kyle Schwarber | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | PHI | 3 | 1B | Bryce Harper | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 |
| simulation | PHI | 4 | LF | Brandon Marsh | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | PHI | 5 | 3B | Alec Bohm | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | PHI | 6 | 2B | Bryson Stott | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 |
| simulation | PHI | 7 | C | J.T. Realmuto | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
| simulation | PHI | 8 | RF | Gabriel Rincones Jr. | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.250 |
| simulation | PHI | 9 | CF | Justin Crawford | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.250 |
Pitching lines - current + final simulation
| src | team | order | name | role | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | BF | Pitches | sim_ERA | season_ERA | season_WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current | NYM | 1 | Christian Scott | Starter | 5.2 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.76 | 3.17 | 1.30 |
| current | NYM | 2 | Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.04 | 1.13 |
| current | NYM | 3 | Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 4.26 | 1.58 |
| current | NYM | 4 | Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1.85 | 0.82 |
| current | NYM | 5 | Huascar Brazobán | Middle Reliever | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.76 | 1.09 |
| current | PHI | 1 | Aaron Nola | Starter | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.40 | 5.75 | 1.43 |
| current | PHI | 2 | Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| current | PHI | 3 | José Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | 6.82 | 1.73 |
| current | PHI | 4 | Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.43 | 1.16 |
| current | PHI | 5 | Jonathan Bowlan | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 2.93 | 1.08 |
| simulation | NYM | 1 | Christian Scott | Starter | 5.2 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 28 | 106 | 4.76 | 3.17 | 1.30 |
| simulation | NYM | 2 | Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 0.00 | 4.26 | 1.58 |
| simulation | NYM | 3 | Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 0.00 | 1.85 | 0.82 |
| simulation | NYM | 4 | Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 2.04 | 1.13 |
| simulation | NYM | 5 | Huascar Brazobán | Middle Reliever | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 0.00 | 2.76 | 1.09 |
| simulation | PHI | 1 | Aaron Nola | Starter | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 24 | 94 | 5.40 | 5.75 | 1.43 |
| simulation | PHI | 2 | Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 0.00 | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| simulation | PHI | 3 | Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 0.00 | 2.43 | 1.16 |
| simulation | PHI | 4 | José Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 9.00 | 6.82 | 1.73 |
| simulation | PHI | 5 | Jonathan Bowlan | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0.00 | 2.93 | 1.08 |
Pitch count summary
| team | pitcher | role | IP | R | H | BB | SO | BF | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | Christian Scott | Starter | 5.2 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 106 |
| NYM | Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| NYM | Devin Williams | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| NYM | Luke Weaver | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 22 |
| NYM | Huascar Brazobán | Middle Reliever | 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| PHI | Aaron Nola | Starter | 5.0 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 24 | 94 |
| PHI | Jhoan Duran | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| PHI | José Alvarado | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| PHI | Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 18 |
| PHI | Jonathan Bowlan | Middle Reliever | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
Audit rule catalog
| rule | status | critical | error | warning | pass | description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BATTING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints. |
| BATTING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines. |
| BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed. |
| BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts. |
| CONFIDENCE_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | Confidence values are between 0 and 1. |
| CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup. |
| CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions. |
| CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current predicted_performance has usable player names. |
| CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled. |
| CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated. |
| CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats. |
| CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs. |
| DATE_PARSE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Game date can be parsed as an ISO date. |
| FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename and game_id identify the same game. |
| FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON. |
| GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | game_summary text agrees with final score. |
| GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner. |
| H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode. |
| INNINGS_COUNT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning count is valid for MLB. |
| INNING_OUTS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Each played half inning has valid outs. |
| INNING_PLAY_SUMS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches. |
| INNING_SEQUENCE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Innings are sequential and unique. |
| INNING_TOTAL_HITS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning hits sum to batting team hits. |
| INNING_TOTAL_RUNS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Inning runs sum to final score. |
| LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent. |
| MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence. |
| PA_BF_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced. |
| PITCHING_REALISM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints. |
| PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines. |
| PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score. |
| PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals. |
| PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values. |
| PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result. |
| RECENT_FORM_RANGE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges. |
| RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION | info | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score. |
| REPORT_COMPLETE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table. |
| REPORT_CSV_EXPORT | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows. |
| RUNS_MATCH_FINAL | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Batting/pitching runs agree with final score. |
| SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited. |
| SCORE_NO_TIE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final MLB score has a clear winner. |
| SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | score_evolution simulation_result matches final score. |
| SCORE_STEP_ORDER | warning | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps. |
| SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded. |
| STARTER_PRESENT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected. |
| SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS | not triggered | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays. |
| TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target. |
| TEAM_RECENT_RECORD | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed. |
| TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | total_runs equals away + home runs. |
| WINNER_FIELD_MATCH | good | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | winner field agrees with the final score. |