MLB JSON Audit Report

20260520_ATL@MIA

20260520_ATL@MIA.json • 2026-05-20

ATL 4 - MIA 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 92INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=6, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ozzie Albies: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dominic Smith: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Sandy León: AB current=3 box=4; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mike Yastrzemski: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=7; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=2, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Christopher Morel: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Javier Sanoja: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Esteury Ruiz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=4; Xavier Edwards: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Leo Jiménez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Otto Lopez: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match MIA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match MIA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=39 matches MIA BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match ATL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=37 matches ATL BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.303/0.707.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 8, MIA 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 4 - MIA 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIA; cap=0.54, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -12, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-04-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260519_ATL@MIA.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.542592, 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 12, 'path': '20260518_ATL@MIA.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ATL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_ATL@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@MIA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 3 - 4 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 4 - 5 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIA, final=MIA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 4-5 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 13/49 = 0.265.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 16/48 = 0.333.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match MIA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match MIA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=39 matches MIA BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match ATL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=37 matches ATL BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.303/0.707.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 8, MIA 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 4 - MIA 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIA; cap=0.54, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -12, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-04-15', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260519_ATL@MIA.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.542592, 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 12, 'path': '20260518_ATL@MIA.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'ATL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'output_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'final_score_winner': 'MIA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'ATL 4 - 5 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_ATL@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@MIA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 3 - 4 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 4 - 5 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIA, final=MIA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 4-5 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 13/49 = 0.265.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 16/48 = 0.333.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=6, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ozzie Albies: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Dominic Smith: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Sandy León: AB current=3 box=4; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mike Yastrzemski: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Mauricio Dubón: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=7; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=2, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Christopher Morel: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Javier Sanoja: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Esteury Ruiz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=4; Xavier Edwards: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Leo Jiménez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Otto Lopez: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.238928318023682	4.371493816375732		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	8
MIA	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4	5	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ATL	batting	34	9	0	0	0	5	6	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		7			2		5	4	8					8.0	5	0	0
current	MIA	batting	32	9	0	0	0	2	2	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIA	pitching		8			1		4	4	6					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	ATL	batting	35	8	2	0	1	4	4	4	6	0	0
simulation	ATL	pitching		7			2		5	4	8					8.0	5	37	160
simulation	MIA	batting	33	7	0	0	2	5	5	4	8	0	0
simulation	MIA	pitching		8			1		4	4	6					9.0	4	39	159

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		DH	Dominic Smith	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	ATL		C	Sandy León	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	ATL		LF	Mike Yastrzemski	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		SS	Mauricio Dubón	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		CF	Michael Harris II	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		DH	Christopher Morel	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		RF	Javier Sanoja	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		C	Liam Hicks	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	MIA		CF	Esteury Ruiz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		2B	Xavier Edwards	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		3B	Leo Jiménez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIA		LF	Heriberto Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		SS	Otto Lopez	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIA		1B	Connor Norby	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	ATL	1	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	2	CF	Michael Harris II	5	5	2	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.400
simulation	ATL	3	1B	Matt Olson	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	ATL	4	2B	Ozzie Albies	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	5	DH	Dominic Smith	4	3	2	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.667
simulation	ATL	6	SS	Mauricio Dubón	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	7	3B	Austin Riley	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	8	LF	Mike Yastrzemski	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	9	C	Sandy León	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIA	1	2B	Xavier Edwards	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.500
simulation	MIA	2	SS	Otto Lopez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	MIA	3	LF	Heriberto Hernández	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIA	4	1B	Connor Norby	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIA	5	CF	Esteury Ruiz	4	4	2	0	2	1	4	0	1	0.500
simulation	MIA	6	3B	Leo Jiménez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	MIA	7	DH	Christopher Morel	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIA	8	C	Liam Hicks	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	9	RF	Javier Sanoja	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ATL	1	Chris Sale	Starter	6.2	2	1	1	2	7	1	0	0	1.35	1.96	0.91
current	ATL	2	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.75
current	ATL	3	Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.44	0.89
current	ATL	5	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	0.0	4	4	4	2	0	1	0	0		0.79	0.53
current	MIA	1	Janson Junk	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	1	3	0	0	0	4.76	4.14	1.24
current	MIA	2	Tyler Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.33	1.30
current	MIA	3	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.19	1.66
current	MIA	4	Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	9.00	9.00	1.50
simulation	ATL	1	Chris Sale	Starter	6.2	2	1	1	2	7	1	24	107	1.35	1.96	0.91
simulation	ATL	2	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	0.00	0.75
simulation	ATL	3	Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	17	0.00	0.44	0.89
simulation	ATL	4	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	0.0	4	4	4	2	0	1	6	20		0.79	0.53
simulation	MIA	1	Janson Junk	Starter	5.2	6	3	3	1	3	0	24	93	4.76	4.14	1.24
simulation	MIA	2	Tyler Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	22	0.00	1.33	1.30
simulation	MIA	3	Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	1	5	20	9.00	9.00	1.50
simulation	MIA	4	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	2	2	0	6	24	0.00	4.19	1.66

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ATL	Chris Sale	Starter	6.2	1	2	2	7	24	107
ATL	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
ATL	Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	3	17
ATL	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	0.0	4	4	2	0	6	20
MIA	Janson Junk	Starter	5.2	3	6	1	3	24	93
MIA	Tyler Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	22
MIA	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	2	2	6	24
MIA	Pete Fairbanks	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	5	20

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260520_BAL@TB

20260520_BAL@TB.json • 2026-05-20

BAL 3 - TB 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 93INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Adley Rutschman: RBI current=1 box=0; Tyler O'Neill: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Blaze Alexander: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Samuel Basallo: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Gunnar Henderson: SO current=1 box=0; Jeremiah Jackson: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Pete Alonso: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Taylor Ward: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; R: current=6, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=6; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Richie Palacios: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Cedric Mullins: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Hunter Feduccia: AB current=3 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Junior Caminero: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: RBI current=0 box=1; Ryan Vilade: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jonathan Aranda: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match TB pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=36 matches TB BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match BAL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match BAL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match BAL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=34 matches BAL BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.447.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.553.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.553.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.298/0.696.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 7, TB 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 3 - TB 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'BAL', 'h2h_net_margin': 13, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 16, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 10, 'winner': 'TB'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.594673, 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260519_BAL@TB.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.589968, 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 10, 'path': '20260518_BAL@TB.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BAL 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BAL 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_BAL@TB.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@TB.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 4 - 5 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 3 - 4 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=TB, final=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.553.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TB wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 3-4 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 7/49 = 0.143.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 14/47 = 0.298.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match TB pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=36 matches TB BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match BAL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match BAL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match BAL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=34 matches BAL BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.447.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.553.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.553.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.298/0.696.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 7, TB 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 3 - TB 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TB.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TB; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TB', 'opponent_team': 'BAL', 'h2h_net_margin': 13, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'TB'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 16, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 10, 'winner': 'TB'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.594673, 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260519_BAL@TB.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.589968, 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 10, 'path': '20260518_BAL@TB.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TB', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'output_opponent_team': 'BAL', 'final_score_winner': 'TB', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TB', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'BAL 4 - 5 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'BAL 3 - 4 TB', 'winner': 'TB'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_BAL@TB.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@TB.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 4 - 5 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 3 - 4 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=TB, final=TB.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.553.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TB wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 3-4 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 7/49 = 0.143.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 14/47 = 0.298.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Adley Rutschman: RBI current=1 box=0; Tyler O'Neill: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Blaze Alexander: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Samuel Basallo: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Gunnar Henderson: SO current=1 box=0; Jeremiah Jackson: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Pete Alonso: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Taylor Ward: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; R: current=6, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=6; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Richie Palacios: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Cedric Mullins: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Hunter Feduccia: AB current=3 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Junior Caminero: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: RBI current=0 box=1; Ryan Vilade: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jonathan Aranda: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	2.2873165607452393	5.398718357086182		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	2	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.553	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	3	7
TB	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	4	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	BAL	batting	33	8	0	0	0	1	3	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	BAL	pitching		8			0		4	2	6					8.0	4	0	0
current	TB	batting	32	9	0	0	0	4	6	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	TB	pitching		7			2		3	2	7					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	BAL	batting	34	7	1	0	2	3	3	2	7	0	0
simulation	BAL	pitching		8			0		4	2	6					8.0	4	34	145
simulation	TB	batting	31	8	2	0	0	4	4	2	6	1	0
simulation	TB	pitching		7			2		3	2	7					9.0	3	36	158

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	BAL		C	Adley Rutschman	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	BAL		RF	Tyler O'Neill	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.000
current	BAL		CF	Blaze Alexander	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		DH	Samuel Basallo	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	BAL		SS	Gunnar Henderson	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	BAL		2B	Jeremiah Jackson	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	BAL		1B	Pete Alonso	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	BAL		LF	Taylor Ward	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	BAL		3B	Weston Wilson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	TB		2B	Richie Palacios	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	TB		CF	Cedric Mullins	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	TB		C	Hunter Feduccia	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	TB		RF	Jonny DeLuca	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	TB		3B	Junior Caminero	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	TB		LF	Chandler Simpson	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	TB		1B	Ryan Vilade	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	TB		DH	Jonathan Aranda	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	TB		SS	Taylor Walls	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	BAL	1	LF	Taylor Ward	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	BAL	2	SS	Gunnar Henderson	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	BAL	3	C	Adley Rutschman	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	4	1B	Pete Alonso	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	BAL	5	RF	Tyler O'Neill	4	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.750
simulation	BAL	6	DH	Samuel Basallo	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	7	2B	Jeremiah Jackson	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	8	3B	Weston Wilson	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	9	CF	Blaze Alexander	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TB	1	LF	Chandler Simpson	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	TB	2	3B	Junior Caminero	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TB	3	DH	Jonathan Aranda	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	TB	4	1B	Ryan Vilade	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	TB	5	2B	Richie Palacios	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	TB	6	RF	Jonny DeLuca	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	TB	7	CF	Cedric Mullins	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TB	8	C	Hunter Feduccia	3	2	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	TB	9	SS	Taylor Walls	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	BAL	1	Shane Baz	Starter	4.2	8	4	4	2	2	0	0	0	7.71	5.26	1.52
current	BAL	2	Anthony Nunez	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.45	0.91
current	BAL	3	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	0.89	0.54
current	TB	1	Steven Matz	Starter	5.2	6	1	1	1	6	1	0	0	1.59	3.86	1.10
current	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.66	1.03
current	TB	4	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	6.75	2.31	0.73
current	TB	5	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	13.50	5.40	2.04
simulation	BAL	1	Shane Baz	Starter	4.2	8	4	4	2	2	0	24	103	7.71	5.26	1.52
simulation	BAL	2	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6	25	0.00	0.89	0.54
simulation	BAL	3	Anthony Nunez	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	2.45	0.91
simulation	TB	1	Steven Matz	Starter	5.2	6	1	1	1	6	1	24	105	1.59	3.86	1.10
simulation	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	19	0.00	2.66	1.03
simulation	TB	3	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	1	1	0	0	3	14	13.50	5.40	2.04
simulation	TB	4	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	1	5	20	6.75	2.31	0.73

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
BAL	Shane Baz	Starter	4.2	4	8	2	2	24	103
BAL	Anthony Nunez	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	17
BAL	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	2	6	25
TB	Steven Matz	Starter	5.2	1	6	1	6	24	105
TB	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	19
TB	Kevin Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	0	0	5	20
TB	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	1	0	3	14

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260520_BOS@KC

20260520_BOS@KC.json • 2026-05-20

BOS 3 - KC 1

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Prediction target vs final simulation drift The inning simulation can vary from ML target, but large drift should be reviewed or explicitly documented as acceptable variance.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Final total runs 4 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 9.9 by more than 4.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	enhanced_prediction				LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 4 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 9.9 by more than 4.

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 4 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 9.9 by more than 4.
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=0, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nick Sogard: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Wilyer Abreu: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Ceddanne Rafaela: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Willson Contreras: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Masataka Yoshida: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jarren Duran: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Marcelo Mayer: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Carlos Narváez: H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jac Caglianone: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Maikel Garcia: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Starling Marte: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=0; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Salvador Perez: SO current=1 box=0; Elias Díaz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match KC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=34 matches KC BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match BOS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match BOS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match BOS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=35 matches BOS BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.460.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.400/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 4, KC 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 3 - KC 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for BOS.	{'winner_confidence': 0.540457, 'h2h_net_margin': 8, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'confidence': 0.562731, 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 6, 'file': '20260519_BOS@KC.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'confidence': 0.549221, 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 2, 'file': '20260518_BOS@KC.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_BOS@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@KC.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 2 - 1 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 3 - 1 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 3-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=BOS, final=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.540.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 3-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 3-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-1, final 3-1 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 4.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 3-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 9/48 = 0.188.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 7/49 = 0.143.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match KC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=34 matches KC BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match BOS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match BOS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match BOS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=35 matches BOS BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.460.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.400/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BOS 4, KC 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BOS 3 - KC 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for BOS.	{'winner_confidence': 0.540457, 'h2h_net_margin': 8, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'confidence': 0.562731, 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 6, 'file': '20260519_BOS@KC.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'confidence': 0.549221, 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 2, 'file': '20260518_BOS@KC.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_BOS@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BOS@KC.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 139.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 139.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BOS 2 - 1 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BOS 3 - 1 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 3-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=BOS, final=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.540.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 3-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 3-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-1, final 3-1 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 4.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 3-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 9/48 = 0.188.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 7/49 = 0.143.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=0, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nick Sogard: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Wilyer Abreu: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Ceddanne Rafaela: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Willson Contreras: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Masataka Yoshida: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jarren Duran: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Marcelo Mayer: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Carlos Narváez: H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jac Caglianone: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Maikel Garcia: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Starling Marte: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=0; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Salvador Perez: SO current=1 box=0; Elias Díaz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.169872760772705	3.9422802925109863		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	2	1	0.540	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
capped_target	2	1		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	1		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	4
KC	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	BOS	batting	32	9	0	0	0	2	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	BOS	pitching		5			0		1	2	7					9.0	1	0	0
current	KC	batting	31	8	0	0	0	0	1	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		4			1		3	3	8					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	BOS	batting	31	4	1	0	1	3	3	3	8	0	0
simulation	BOS	pitching		5			0		1	2	7					9.0	1	35	139
simulation	KC	batting	32	5	1	0	0	1	1	2	7	0	1
simulation	KC	pitching		4			1		3	3	8					9.0	3	34	147

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	BOS		3B	Nick Sogard	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		RF	Wilyer Abreu	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		1B	Willson Contreras	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		DH	Masataka Yoshida	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	BOS		LF	Jarren Duran	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		2B	Marcelo Mayer	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		C	Carlos Narváez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		SS	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		RF	Jac Caglianone	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		3B	Maikel Garcia	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		DH	Starling Marte	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		LF	Isaac Collins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		2B	Nick Loftin	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	KC		1B	Salvador Perez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		C	Elias Díaz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		CF	Kyle Isbel	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	BOS	1	LF	Jarren Duran	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	2	DH	Masataka Yoshida	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	3	RF	Wilyer Abreu	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	BOS	4	1B	Willson Contreras	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	5	CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	BOS	6	3B	Nick Sogard	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	7	2B	Marcelo Mayer	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	8	C	Carlos Narváez	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	9	SS	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	KC	1	3B	Maikel Garcia	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	KC	2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	3	1B	Salvador Perez	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	KC	4	LF	Isaac Collins	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	KC	5	2B	Nick Loftin	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	KC	6	RF	Jac Caglianone	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	KC	7	DH	Starling Marte	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	KC	8	C	Elias Díaz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	KC	9	CF	Kyle Isbel	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	BOS	1	Connelly Early	Starter	5.2	4	1	1	0	5	0	0	0	1.59	3.21	1.20
current	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.54	0.84
current	BOS	3	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.79	1.03
current	BOS	4	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.75
current	KC	1	Michael Wacha	Starter	6.1	3	3	3	3	5	1	0	0	4.26	2.83	0.99
current	KC	2	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.26	1.45
current	KC	3	Nick Mears	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.06	1.30
current	KC	4	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.80	0.80
simulation	BOS	1	Connelly Early	Starter	5.2	4	1	1	0	5	0	22	89	1.59	3.21	1.20
simulation	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	2	0	0	7	21	0.00	0.54	0.84
simulation	BOS	3	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	2.79	1.03
simulation	BOS	4	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	14	0.00	0.00	0.75
simulation	KC	1	Michael Wacha	Starter	6.1	3	3	3	3	5	1	25	101	4.26	2.83	0.99
simulation	KC	2	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	17	0.00	3.26	1.45
simulation	KC	3	Nick Mears	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	3.06	1.30
simulation	KC	4	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	3	14	0.00	1.80	0.80

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
BOS	Connelly Early	Starter	5.2	1	4	0	5	22	89
BOS	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	2	0	7	21
BOS	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	15
BOS	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	14
KC	Michael Wacha	Starter	6.1	3	3	3	5	25	101
KC	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17
KC	Nick Mears	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	15
KC	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	0	1	3	14

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	warning	1	2	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260520_CHW@SEA

20260520_CHW@SEA.json • 2026-05-20

CHW 3 - SEA 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 93INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Andrew Benintendi: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jarred Kelenic: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Drew Romo: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4; Chase Meidroth: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Sam Antonacci: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Young: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Colt Emerson: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Luke Raley: BB current=0 box=1; Dominic Canzone: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jhonny Pereda: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Julio Rodríguez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Patrick Wisdom: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Randy Arozarena: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match SEA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match SEA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match SEA pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=40 matches SEA BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match CHW pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match CHW pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match CHW pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=38 matches CHW BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.303/0.707.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 9, SEA 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 3 - SEA 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SEA; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'opponent_team': 'SEA', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-05-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'confidence': 0.544, 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 5, 'path': '20260519_CHW@SEA.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'confidence': 0.539312, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260518_CHW@SEA.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-10', 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260510_SEA@CHW.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'confidence': 0.56, 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 5, 'path': '20260509_SEA@CHW.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'confidence': 0.6273139261332243, 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260508_SEA@CHW.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHW', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'final_score_winner': 'SEA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 3 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_CHW@SEA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@SEA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 4 - 5 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 3 - 5 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=SEA, final=SEA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SEA wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 3-5 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SEA wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 16/47 = 0.340.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 13/50 = 0.260.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match SEA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match SEA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match SEA pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=40 matches SEA BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match CHW pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match CHW pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match CHW pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=38 matches CHW BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.303/0.707.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 9, SEA 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 3 - SEA 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SEA; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'opponent_team': 'SEA', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-05-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'confidence': 0.544, 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 5, 'path': '20260519_CHW@SEA.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'confidence': 0.539312, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260518_CHW@SEA.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-10', 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260510_SEA@CHW.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'confidence': 0.56, 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 5, 'path': '20260509_SEA@CHW.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'confidence': 0.6273139261332243, 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260508_SEA@CHW.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHW', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SEA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'final_score_winner': 'SEA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 4 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHW 3 - 5 SEA', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_CHW@SEA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@SEA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 4 - 5 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 3 - 5 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=SEA, final=SEA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SEA wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 3-5 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SEA wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 16/47 = 0.340.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 13/50 = 0.260.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=0, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Andrew Benintendi: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Jarred Kelenic: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Drew Romo: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4; Chase Meidroth: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Sam Antonacci: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=0, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Young: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Colt Emerson: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Luke Raley: BB current=0 box=1; Dominic Canzone: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jhonny Pereda: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Julio Rodríguez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Patrick Wisdom: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Randy Arozarena: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.0	4.6		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	9
SEA	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	5	11

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHW	batting	32	8	0	0	3	4	1	10	0	0	0	0
current	CHW	pitching		11				5	3	10					8.0	5	0	0
current	SEA	batting	31	9	0	0	3	4	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	SEA	pitching		9				3	4	10					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	CHW	batting	36	9	2	0	3	3	4	10	0	0
simulation	CHW	pitching		11				5	3	10					8.0	5	38	173
simulation	SEA	batting	35	11	2	0	5	5	3	10	0	0
simulation	SEA	pitching		9				3	4	10					9.0	3	40	173

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	CHW		DH	Andrew Benintendi	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		RF	Jarred Kelenic	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		C	Drew Romo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		CF	Tristan Peters	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		2B	Chase Meidroth	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		LF	Sam Antonacci	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		1B	Munetaka Murakami	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	2	0.250
current	CHW		3B	Colson Montgomery	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		SS	Luisangel Acuña	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	SEA		2B	Cole Young	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		SS	Colt Emerson	0	3	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	SEA		RF	Luke Raley	0	3	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.333
current	SEA		DH	Dominic Canzone	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SEA		C	Jhonny Pereda	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SEA		CF	Julio Rodríguez	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		3B	Patrick Wisdom	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SEA		LF	Randy Arozarena	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		1B	Josh Naylor	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHW	1	LF	Sam Antonacci	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.200
simulation	CHW	2	1B	Munetaka Murakami	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.200
simulation	CHW	3	DH	Andrew Benintendi	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
simulation	CHW	4	3B	Colson Montgomery	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	CHW	5	2B	Chase Meidroth	4	4	2	1	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	CHW	6	RF	Jarred Kelenic	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	7	CF	Tristan Peters	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHW	8	C	Drew Romo	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	CHW	9	SS	Luisangel Acuña	4	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.667
simulation	SEA	1	2B	Cole Young	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	SEA	2	CF	Julio Rodríguez	5	4	2	1	0	0	1	1	0.500
simulation	SEA	3	1B	Josh Naylor	4	4	2	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	SEA	4	LF	Randy Arozarena	4	4	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	5	RF	Luke Raley	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	SEA	6	DH	Dominic Canzone	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	0.667
simulation	SEA	7	3B	Patrick Wisdom	4	4	1	0	1	1	0	3	0.250
simulation	SEA	8	SS	Colt Emerson	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	SEA	9	C	Jhonny Pereda	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHW	1	Sean Burke	Starter	6.0	4	0	0	2	10	0	0	0.00	4.10	1.18
current	CHW	2	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.54	1.63
current	CHW	3	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.42	1.26
current	CHW	5	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0		7.71	1.71
current	CHW	6	Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	0.0	6	4	4	0	0	0	0		13.50	3.00
current	SEA	1	Emerson Hancock	Starter	6.0	3	2	2	4	7	0	0	3.00	3.02	1.01
current	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	1.0	4	1	1	0	2	0	0	9.00	4.82	1.34
current	SEA	3	Cooper Criswell	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	2.79	1.03
current	SEA	4	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.57	1.33
current	SEA	5	Alex Hoppe	Middle Reliever	0.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0		5.79	1.39
simulation	CHW	1	Sean Burke	Starter	6.0	4	0	0	2	10	24	96	0.00	4.10	1.18
simulation	CHW	2	Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	0.0	6	4	4	0	0	6	18		13.50	3.00
simulation	CHW	3	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	4	18	0.00	1.42	1.26
simulation	CHW	4	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	23		7.71	1.71
simulation	CHW	5	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	18	0.00	1.54	1.63
simulation	SEA	1	Emerson Hancock	Starter	6.0	3	2	2	4	7	25	101	3.00	3.02	1.01
simulation	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	1.0	4	1	1	0	2	7	20	9.00	4.82	1.34
simulation	SEA	3	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	14	0.00	2.57	1.33
simulation	SEA	4	Cooper Criswell	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	15	0.00	2.79	1.03
simulation	SEA	5	Alex Hoppe	Middle Reliever	0.0	2	0	0	0	0	2	23		5.79	1.39

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHW	Sean Burke	Starter	6.0	0	4	2	10	24	96
CHW	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	18
CHW	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	18
CHW	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	1	0	0	1	23
CHW	Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	0.0	4	6	0	0	6	18
SEA	Emerson Hancock	Starter	6.0	2	3	4	7	25	101
SEA	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	4	0	2	7	20
SEA	Cooper Criswell	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	15
SEA	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
SEA	Alex Hoppe	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	2	0	0	2	23

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260520_CIN@PHI

20260520_CIN@PHI.json • 2026-05-20

CIN 6 - PHI 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 92INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Matt McLain: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Nathaniel Lowe: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; JJ Bleday: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; P.J. Higgins: AB current=3 box=4; Spencer Steer: H current=1 box=2; Will Benson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=4 box=5		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=11; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Adolis García: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Otto Kemp: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=3; Trea Turner: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Bryce Harper: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Edmundo Sosa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match PHI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match PHI pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=39 matches PHI BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match CIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match CIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match CIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=41 matches CIN BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.298/0.696.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 10, PHI 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 6 - PHI 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CIN; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PHI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.581221, 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260519_CIN@PHI.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.576132, 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260518_CIN@PHI.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PHI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'final_score_winner': 'CIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CIN 5 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'CIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CIN 6 - 5 PHI', 'winner': 'CIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_CIN@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@PHI.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 5 - 4 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 6 - 5 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CIN wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CIN, final=CIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CIN wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CIN wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 6-5 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CIN wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 16/49 = 0.327.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 9/49 = 0.184.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match PHI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match PHI pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=39 matches PHI BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match CIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match CIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match CIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=41 matches CIN BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.298/0.696.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 10, PHI 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 6 - PHI 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CIN; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PHI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.581221, 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260519_CIN@PHI.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.576132, 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260518_CIN@PHI.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PHI', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'final_score_winner': 'CIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CIN 5 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'CIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CIN 6 - 5 PHI', 'winner': 'CIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_CIN@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@PHI.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 5 - 4 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 6 - 5 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CIN wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CIN, final=CIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CIN wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CIN wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 6-5 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CIN wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 16/49 = 0.327.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 9/49 = 0.184.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Matt McLain: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Nathaniel Lowe: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; JJ Bleday: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; P.J. Higgins: AB current=3 box=4; Spencer Steer: H current=1 box=2; Will Benson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Elly De La Cruz: AB current=4 box=5	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=2, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=11; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Adolis García: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Otto Kemp: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=3; Trea Turner: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Bryce Harper: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Edmundo Sosa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.6921164989471436	5.308592796325684		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	0	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	10
PHI	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	5	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CIN	batting	33	8	0	0	4	5	4	9	0	0	0	0
current	CIN	pitching		10				5	3	11					9.0	5	0	0
current	PHI	batting	33	8	0	0	2	3	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	PHI	pitching		10				6	2	6					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	CIN	batting	37	10	3	0	6	6	2	6	0	0
simulation	CIN	pitching		10				5	3	11					9.0	5	41	173
simulation	PHI	batting	36	10	3	0	5	5	3	11	1	1
simulation	PHI	pitching		10				6	2	6					9.0	6	39	152

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	CIN		SS	Matt McLain	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		1B	Nathaniel Lowe	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		LF	JJ Bleday	0	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		3B	Sal Stewart	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		C	P.J. Higgins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CIN		2B	Spencer Steer	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		RF	Will Benson	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	CIN		DH	Elly De La Cruz	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CIN		CF	Blake Dunn	0	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		RF	Adolis García	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		LF	Otto Kemp	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	PHI		SS	Trea Turner	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		DH	Bryce Harper	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		CF	Brandon Marsh	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		C	J.T. Realmuto	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	PHI		3B	Edmundo Sosa	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	PHI		2B	Bryson Stott	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		1B	Alec Bohm	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	1	SS	Matt McLain	5	5	2	2	1	2	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	CIN	2	DH	Elly De La Cruz	5	5	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	CIN	3	LF	JJ Bleday	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	4	3B	Sal Stewart	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	5	2B	Spencer Steer	4	4	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	CIN	6	1B	Nathaniel Lowe	4	3	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	CIN	7	CF	Blake Dunn	4	4	1	1	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	8	RF	Will Benson	4	4	2	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	CIN	9	C	P.J. Higgins	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	1	SS	Trea Turner	5	4	1	1	1	0	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	2	RF	Adolis García	5	3	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	PHI	3	DH	Bryce Harper	5	5	3	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.600
simulation	PHI	4	1B	Alec Bohm	5	4	2	1	1	3	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	PHI	5	C	J.T. Realmuto	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	6	CF	Brandon Marsh	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	7	3B	Edmundo Sosa	4	4	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	PHI	8	2B	Bryson Stott	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	9	LF	Otto Kemp	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CIN	1	Andrew Abbott	Starter	4.2	5	2	2	1	9	0	0	3.86	4.21	1.50
current	CIN	2	Graham Ashcraft	Middle Reliever	1.2	4	3	3	1	2	0	0	16.20	2.31	1.20
current	CIN	3	Pierce Johnson	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.72	1.34
current	CIN	4	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.32	1.21
current	PHI	1	Aaron Nola	Starter	4.2	9	4	4	0	2	0	0	7.71	5.91	1.55
current	PHI	2	Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	4.12	1.22
current	PHI	3	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.42	1.03
current	PHI	4	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	13.50	5.40	1.92
current	PHI	5	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.16	1.14
current	PHI	6	Tanner Banks	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	13.50	5.79	1.93
current	PHI	7	Chase Shugart	Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00
simulation	CIN	1	Andrew Abbott	Starter	4.2	5	2	2	1	9	21	94	3.86	4.21	1.50
simulation	CIN	2	Graham Ashcraft	Middle Reliever	1.2	4	3	3	1	2	10	37	16.20	2.31	1.20
simulation	CIN	3	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	0	6	25	0.00	3.32	1.21
simulation	CIN	4	Pierce Johnson	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	3.72	1.34
simulation	PHI	1	Aaron Nola	Starter	4.2	9	4	4	0	2	23	90	7.71	5.91	1.55
simulation	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	16	0.00	1.42	1.03
simulation	PHI	3	Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	13	0.00	4.12	1.22
simulation	PHI	4	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	3	16	13.50	5.40	1.92
simulation	PHI	5	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.16	1.14
simulation	PHI	6	Tanner Banks	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	1	1	1	3	3	13.50	5.79	1.93
simulation	PHI	7	Chase Shugart	Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.00	1.53	0.91

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CIN	Andrew Abbott	Starter	4.2	2	5	1	9	21	94
CIN	Graham Ashcraft	Middle Reliever	1.2	3	4	1	2	10	37
CIN	Pierce Johnson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	17
CIN	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	1	0	6	25
PHI	Aaron Nola	Starter	4.2	4	9	0	2	23	90
PHI	Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
PHI	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
PHI	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	0	1	3	16
PHI	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	1	0	3	13
PHI	Tanner Banks	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	1	1	3	3
PHI	Chase Shugart	Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	1

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260520_CLE@DET

20260520_CLE@DET.json • 2026-05-20

CLE 5 - DET 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 92INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=3; R: current=6, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Patrick Bailey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brayan Rocchio: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Rhys Hoskins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; David Fry: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Steven Kwan: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Angel Martínez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1; Daniel Schneemann: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=41; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=4; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=0, sim=4; R: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=0; SO: current=10, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gage Workman: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Dillon Dingler: AB current=4 box=5; Zach McKinstry: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kevin McGonigle: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Matt Vierling: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match DET pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match DET pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match DET pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=42 matches DET BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match CLE pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match CLE pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=43 matches CLE BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.553.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.553.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.447.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.4.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.276/0.652.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 8, DET 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 5 - DET 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.581221, 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260519_CLE@DET.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.576132, 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 6, 'path': '20260518_CLE@DET.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'DET', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'DET', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_CLE@DET.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@DET.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 178.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 178.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 5 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 5 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CLE, final=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.553.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CLE wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 22/50 = 0.440.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 12/49 = 0.245.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match DET pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match DET pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match DET pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=42 matches DET BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match CLE pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match CLE pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=43 matches CLE BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.553.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.553.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.447.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.4.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.276/0.652.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 8, DET 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 5 - DET 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.581221, 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260519_CLE@DET.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.576132, 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 6, 'path': '20260518_CLE@DET.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CLE', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'DET', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'output_opponent_team': 'DET', 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 5 - 4 DET', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_CLE@DET.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@DET.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 178.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 178.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 5 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 5 - 4 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CLE, final=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.553.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CLE wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 22/50 = 0.440.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 12/49 = 0.245.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=3; R: current=6, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Patrick Bailey: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brayan Rocchio: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Rhys Hoskins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; David Fry: AB current=3 box=4, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Steven Kwan: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Angel Martínez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1; Daniel Schneemann: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=41; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=4; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=0, sim=4; R: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=0; SO: current=10, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gage Workman: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Hao-Yu Lee: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Dillon Dingler: AB current=4 box=5; Zach McKinstry: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kevin McGonigle: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Matt Vierling: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.003024578094482	5.200673580169678		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.553	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
CLE	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5	8
DET	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	11

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CLE	batting	31	9	0	0	0	5	6	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		11			1		4	0	7					10.0	4	0	0
current	DET	batting	32	9	0	0	0	0	2	2	10	0	0	0	0
current	DET	pitching		8			3		5	4	10					10.0	5	0	0
simulation	CLE	batting	38	8	2	0	3	5	5	4	10	0	0
simulation	CLE	pitching		11			1		4	0	7					10.0	4	43	165
simulation	DET	batting	41	11	4	0	1	4	4	0	7	0	2
simulation	DET	pitching		8			3		5	4	10					10.0	5	42	178

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	CLE		C	Patrick Bailey	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CLE		3B	José Ramírez	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.333
current	CLE		1B	Rhys Hoskins	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
current	CLE		RF	David Fry	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CLE		CF	Steven Kwan	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		LF	Angel Martínez	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		2B	Daniel Schneemann	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CLE		DH	Chase DeLauter	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	DET		3B	Gage Workman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
current	DET		2B	Hao-Yu Lee	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	DET		1B	Colt Keith	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	DET		DH	Dillon Dingler	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		RF	Zach McKinstry	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	DET		SS	Kevin McGonigle	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	DET		CF	Matt Vierling	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		LF	Riley Greene	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	DET		C	Jake Rogers	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	CLE	1	LF	Angel Martínez	5	5	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	CLE	2	3B	José Ramírez	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	CLE	3	DH	Chase DeLauter	5	5	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	CLE	4	1B	Rhys Hoskins	5	4	2	1	1	1	2	1	2	0	0.500
simulation	CLE	5	2B	Daniel Schneemann	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	6	RF	David Fry	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	7	CF	Steven Kwan	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	8	C	Patrick Bailey	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	DET	1	1B	Colt Keith	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	DET	2	SS	Kevin McGonigle	5	5	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	DET	3	DH	Dillon Dingler	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	DET	4	LF	Riley Greene	5	5	3	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.600
simulation	DET	5	CF	Matt Vierling	5	4	2	0	1	1	3	0	1	1	0.500
simulation	DET	6	3B	Gage Workman	5	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	DET	7	RF	Zach McKinstry	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	DET	8	2B	Hao-Yu Lee	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	DET	9	C	Jake Rogers	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CLE	1	Tanner Bibee	Starter	5.1	8	3	3	0	1	1	0	0	5.06	4.15	1.35
current	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.78	1.15
current	CLE	3	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.74	0.87
current	CLE	5	Matt Festa	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.71	1.14
current	CLE	7	Codi Heuer	Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	9.00
current	DET	1	Framber Valdez	Starter	5.1	7	3	3	0	7	2	0	0	5.06	4.58	1.40
current	DET	2	Burch Smith	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.76	1.35
current	DET	3	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.19	0.89
current	DET	4	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.83	1.29
current	DET	5	Brant Hurter	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	27.00	3.18	1.06
simulation	CLE	1	Tanner Bibee	Starter	5.1	8	3	3	0	1	1	24	91	5.06	4.15	1.35
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	0	0	0	0	0	6	23	0.00	2.78	1.15
simulation	CLE	3	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	14	0.00	1.74	0.87
simulation	CLE	4	Matt Festa	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	4.71	1.14
simulation	CLE	5	Codi Heuer	Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	6	20	9.00	4.50	2.00
simulation	DET	1	Framber Valdez	Starter	5.1	7	3	3	0	7	2	23	91	5.06	4.58	1.40
simulation	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	21	0.00	2.19	0.89
simulation	DET	3	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	3	1	0	6	25	0.00	0.83	1.29
simulation	DET	4	Burch Smith	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	21	0.00	2.76	1.35
simulation	DET	5	Brant Hurter	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	2	2	0	1	1	3	20	27.00	3.18	1.06

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CLE	Tanner Bibee	Starter	5.1	3	8	0	1	24	91
CLE	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	2	0	0	6	23
CLE	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	14
CLE	Matt Festa	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	2	4	17
CLE	Codi Heuer	Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	2	6	20
DET	Framber Valdez	Starter	5.1	3	7	0	7	23	91
DET	Burch Smith	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	1	5	21
DET	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	5	21
DET	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	3	1	6	25
DET	Brant Hurter	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	1	0	1	3	20

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260520_HOU@MIN

20260520_HOU@MIN.json • 2026-05-20

HOU 2 - MIN 4

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Prediction target vs final simulation drift The inning simulation can vary from ML target, but large drift should be reviewed or explicitly documented as acceptable variance.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Final total runs 6 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 10.2 by more than 4.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	enhanced_prediction				LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 10.2 by more than 4.

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 10.2 by more than 4.
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=1, sim=2; R: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jeremy Peña: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Cam Smith: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Yordan Alvarez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jake Meyers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Christian Vázquez: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Zach Dezenzo: AB current=3 box=4		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (RBI: current=2, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Trevor Larnach: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: RBI current=0 box=2; Victor Caratini: H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Kreidler: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Byron Buxton: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Tristan Gray: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; James Outman: SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match MIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match MIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match MIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=38 matches MIN BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match HOU pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match HOU pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match HOU pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=35 matches HOU BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.455.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.545.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.545.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.328/0.755.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 8, MIN 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 2 - MIN 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIN; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'opponent_team': 'HOU', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260519_HOU@MIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260518_HOU@MIN.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIN', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'final_score_winner': 'MIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'HOU 3 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'HOU 2 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_HOU@MIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@MIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 143.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 143.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 3 - 4 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 2 - 4 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIN, final=MIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.545.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIN wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIN wins 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 2-4 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIN wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 21/50 = 0.420.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 11/49 = 0.224.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match MIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match MIN pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match MIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=38 matches MIN BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match HOU pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match HOU pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match HOU pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=35 matches HOU BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.455.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.545.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.545.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.328/0.755.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 8, MIN 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 2 - MIN 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIN; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'opponent_team': 'HOU', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260519_HOU@MIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260518_HOU@MIN.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIN', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'output_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'final_score_winner': 'MIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'HOU 3 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'HOU 2 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_HOU@MIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@MIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 143.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 143.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 3 - 4 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 2 - 4 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIN, final=MIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.545.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIN wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIN wins 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 2-4 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIN wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 21/50 = 0.420.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 11/49 = 0.224.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=1, sim=2; R: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jeremy Peña: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Cam Smith: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Isaac Paredes: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Yordan Alvarez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Christian Walker: RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Jake Meyers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Christian Vázquez: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Zach Dezenzo: AB current=3 box=4	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (RBI: current=2, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Trevor Larnach: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: RBI current=0 box=2; Victor Caratini: H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Kreidler: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Luke Keaschall: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Byron Buxton: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Tristan Gray: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; James Outman: SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.782258987426758	4.877446174621582		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.545	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	8
MIN	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	4	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	HOU	batting	32	9	0	0	1	1	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	HOU	pitching		8				4	3	7					8.0	4	0	0
current	MIN	batting	31	8	0	0	2	5	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIN	pitching		8				2	2	8					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	HOU	batting	35	8	2	0	2	2	2	8	0	1
simulation	HOU	pitching		8				4	3	7					8.0	4	35	149
simulation	MIN	batting	31	8	0	0	4	4	3	7	1	0
simulation	MIN	pitching		8				2	2	8					9.0	2	38	143

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	HOU		SS	Jeremy Peña	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		RF	Cam Smith	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	HOU		3B	Isaac Paredes	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		DH	Yordan Alvarez	0	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		1B	Christian Walker	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		CF	Jake Meyers	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		C	Christian Vázquez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	HOU		LF	Zach Dezenzo	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	HOU		2B	Brice Matthews	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		LF	Trevor Larnach	0	3	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		RF	Kody Clemens	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		C	Victor Caratini	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	MIN		SS	Ryan Kreidler	0	3	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		2B	Luke Keaschall	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		DH	Byron Buxton	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		3B	Tristan Gray	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		CF	James Outman	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		1B	Josh Bell	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	1	SS	Jeremy Peña	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	HOU	2	3B	Isaac Paredes	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	3	DH	Yordan Alvarez	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	HOU	4	1B	Christian Walker	4	4	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	5	CF	Jake Meyers	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	6	LF	Zach Dezenzo	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	7	2B	Brice Matthews	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	HOU	8	RF	Cam Smith	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	9	C	Christian Vázquez	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	1	DH	Byron Buxton	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	2	LF	Trevor Larnach	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	3	1B	Josh Bell	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	4	RF	Kody Clemens	4	4	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	5	2B	Luke Keaschall	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	6	C	Victor Caratini	4	3	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	7	3B	Tristan Gray	4	4	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	MIN	8	SS	Ryan Kreidler	4	4	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	9	CF	James Outman	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	HOU	1	Mike Burrows	Starter	4.2	8	4	4	3	5	0	0	7.71	5.72	1.53
current	HOU	2	Bryan King	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.00	1.38
current	HOU	3	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	4.91	1.31
current	HOU	5	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	7.63	2.09
current	MIN	1	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.2	8	2	2	0	6	0	0	3.18	3.20	1.01
current	MIN	2	Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	3.63	1.39
current	MIN	3	Luis García	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	6.60	1.67
current	MIN	4	Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.41	1.39
simulation	HOU	1	Mike Burrows	Starter	4.2	8	4	4	3	5	25	96	7.71	5.72	1.53
simulation	HOU	2	Bryan King	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	4	19	0.00	3.00	1.38
simulation	HOU	3	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	18	0.00	7.63	2.09
simulation	HOU	4	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	16	0.00	4.91	1.31
simulation	MIN	1	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.2	8	2	2	0	6	25	95	3.18	3.20	1.01
simulation	MIN	2	Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	4	14	0.00	3.63	1.39
simulation	MIN	3	Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	2.41	1.39
simulation	MIN	4	Luis García	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	5	17	0.00	6.60	1.67

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
HOU	Mike Burrows	Starter	4.2	4	8	3	5	25	96
HOU	Bryan King	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	19
HOU	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	16
HOU	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	18
MIN	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.2	2	8	0	6	25	95
MIN	Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	14
MIN	Luis García	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	5	17
MIN	Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	warning	1	2	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260520_LAD@SD

20260520_LAD@SD.json • 2026-05-20

LAD 2 - SD 3

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Prediction target vs final simulation drift The inning simulation can vary from ML target, but large drift should be reviewed or explicitly documented as acceptable variance.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Final total runs 5 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 9.9 by more than 4.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	enhanced_prediction				LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 9.9 by more than 4.

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 9.9 by more than 4.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=6, sim=2; R: current=6, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Hyeseong Kim: H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Will Smith: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Freddie Freeman: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Tucker: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=28; H: current=9, sim=4; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Xander Bogaerts: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Freddy Fermin: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ramón Laureano: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Castellanos: AB current=4 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Gavin Sheets: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Miguel Andujar: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match SD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match SD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=37 matches SD BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match LAD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=31 matches LAD BF=31.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.400/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 7, SD 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 2 - SD 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260519_LAD@SD.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260518_LAD@SD.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 2 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 2 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_LAD@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@SD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 124.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 124.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 2 - 3 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 2 - 3 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 3-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=SD, final=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SD wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 2-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-3, final 2-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 3-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 13/48 = 0.271.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 12/48 = 0.250.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match SD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match SD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=37 matches SD BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match LAD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=31 matches LAD BF=31.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.400/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 7, SD 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 2 - SD 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'SD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260519_LAD@SD.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'SD', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260518_LAD@SD.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'LAD', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 2 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'LAD 2 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_LAD@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@SD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 124.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 124.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 2 - 3 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 2 - 3 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 3-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=SD, final=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SD wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 2-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-3, final 2-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 3-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 13/48 = 0.271.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 12/48 = 0.250.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=6, sim=2; R: current=6, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Hyeseong Kim: H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Mookie Betts: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Will Smith: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Freddie Freeman: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Tucker: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Teoscar Hernández: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=28; H: current=9, sim=4; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Xander Bogaerts: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Freddy Fermin: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ramón Laureano: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Castellanos: AB current=4 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Gavin Sheets: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Miguel Andujar: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.5097029209136963	3.736818552017212		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	2	3	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	2	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	7
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	4

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	LAD	batting	34	9	0	0	0	6	6	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		4			1		3	3	2					8.0	3	0	0
current	SD	batting	34	9	0	0	0	3	1	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	SD	pitching		7			0		2	2	6					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	LAD	batting	34	7	2	0	0	2	2	2	6	0	1
simulation	LAD	pitching		4			1		3	3	2					8.0	3	31	124
simulation	SD	batting	28	4	0	0	1	3	3	3	2	0	0
simulation	SD	pitching		7			0		2	2	6					9.0	2	37	155

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	LAD		DH	Shohei Ohtani	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		2B	Hyeseong Kim	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAD		SS	Mookie Betts	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	LAD		3B	Max Muncy	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAD		C	Will Smith	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		CF	Andy Pages	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		SS	Xander Bogaerts	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		C	Freddy Fermin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		LF	Ramón Laureano	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		RF	Nick Castellanos	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		3B	Manny Machado	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	SD		1B	Gavin Sheets	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		DH	Miguel Andujar	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		CF	Jackson Merrill	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		2B	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	5	5	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	LAD	2	SS	Mookie Betts	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	LAD	3	1B	Freddie Freeman	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	4	RF	Kyle Tucker	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	5	CF	Andy Pages	4	3	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	LAD	6	3B	Max Muncy	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	7	C	Will Smith	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	8	LF	Teoscar Hernández	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	9	2B	Hyeseong Kim	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	SD	1	2B	Fernando Tatis Jr.	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	SD	2	DH	Miguel Andujar	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SD	3	1B	Gavin Sheets	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SD	4	3B	Manny Machado	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	SD	5	SS	Xander Bogaerts	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	6	CF	Jackson Merrill	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	7	RF	Nick Castellanos	3	2	1	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	SD	8	LF	Ramón Laureano	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SD	9	C	Freddy Fermin	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	LAD	1	Shohei Ohtani	Starter	5.2	2	1	1	3	2	1	0	0	1.59	0.82	0.82
current	LAD	3	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	2.1	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	7.71	1.37	0.61
current	SD	1	Randy Vásquez	Starter	5.2	7	2	2	1	5	0	0	0	3.18	2.68	1.11
current	SD	2	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.88	1.21
current	SD	3	Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.15	0.96
current	SD	4	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.79	0.84
simulation	LAD	1	Shohei Ohtani	Starter	5.2	2	1	1	3	2	1	22	95	1.59	0.82	0.82
simulation	LAD	2	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	2.1	2	2	2	0	0	0	9	29	7.71	1.37	0.61
simulation	SD	1	Randy Vásquez	Starter	5.2	7	2	2	1	5	0	25	96	3.18	2.68	1.11
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	21	0.00	0.79	0.84
simulation	SD	3	Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	19	0.00	1.15	0.96
simulation	SD	4	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	19	0.00	4.88	1.21

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
LAD	Shohei Ohtani	Starter	5.2	1	2	3	2	22	95
LAD	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	2.1	2	2	0	0	9	29
SD	Randy Vásquez	Starter	5.2	2	7	1	5	25	96
SD	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	19
SD	Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	1	5	19
SD	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	4	21

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	warning	1	2	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260520_MIL@CHC

20260520_MIL@CHC.json • 2026-05-20

MIL 6 - CHC 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 92INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=5, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Alex Bregman: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=3; Carson Kelly: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Miguel Amaya: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Dansby Swanson: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Michael Busch: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=1, sim=8; SO: current=9, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Christian Yelich: BB current=0 box=1; William Contreras: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: H current=1 box=2; Sal Frelick: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Bauers: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; David Hamilton: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2; Garrett Mitchell: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match MIL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match MIL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=38 matches MIL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match CHC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match CHC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match CHC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=44 matches CHC BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.553.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.553.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.447.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.303/0.707.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 9, CHC 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 6 - CHC 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'CHC', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'confidence': 0.581221, 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260519_MIL@CHC.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'confidence': 0.571191, 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 6, 'path': '20260518_MIL@CHC.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 3 CHC', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 6 - 3 CHC', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_MIL@CHC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@CHC.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 187.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 187.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 4 - 3 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 6 - 3 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIL, final=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.553.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIL wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 6-3 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 8/49 = 0.163.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 18/45 = 0.400.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match MIL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match MIL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=38 matches MIL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match CHC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match CHC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match CHC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=44 matches CHC BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.553.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.553.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.447.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.303/0.707.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 9, CHC 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 6 - CHC 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'CHC', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'confidence': 0.581221, 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260519_MIL@CHC.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'confidence': 0.571191, 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 6, 'path': '20260518_MIL@CHC.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CHC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 4 - 3 CHC', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIL 6 - 3 CHC', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_MIL@CHC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@CHC.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 187.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 187.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 4 - 3 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 6 - 3 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIL, final=MIL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.553.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIL wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 6-3 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 8/49 = 0.163.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 18/45 = 0.400.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=5, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Alex Bregman: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=3; Carson Kelly: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Miguel Amaya: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Dansby Swanson: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Michael Busch: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=1, sim=8; SO: current=9, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Christian Yelich: BB current=0 box=1; William Contreras: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: H current=1 box=2; Sal Frelick: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jake Bauers: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; David Hamilton: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2; Garrett Mitchell: H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.618669509887695	3.7314090728759766		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.553	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	0	6	9
CHC	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	3	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIL	batting	34	9	0	0	0	3	5	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIL	pitching		7			1		3	4	8					9.0	3	0	0
current	CHC	batting	35	9	0	0	0	2	4	5	9	0	0	0	0
current	CHC	pitching		9			2		6	8	6					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	MIL	batting	36	9	1	0	2	6	6	8	6	0	0
simulation	MIL	pitching		7			1		3	4	8					9.0	3	38	173
simulation	CHC	batting	34	7	0	0	1	3	3	4	8	0	0
simulation	CHC	pitching		9			2		6	8	6					9.0	6	44	187

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	MIL		LF	Jackson Chourio	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
current	MIL		DH	Christian Yelich	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIL		C	William Contreras	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIL		2B	Brice Turang	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIL		RF	Sal Frelick	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIL		1B	Jake Bauers	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIL		3B	David Hamilton	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIL		CF	Garrett Mitchell	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	MIL		SS	Joey Ortiz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHC		2B	Nico Hoerner	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		3B	Alex Bregman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	CHC		LF	Ian Happ	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0.250
current	CHC		C	Carson Kelly	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHC		CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	CHC		DH	Miguel Amaya	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHC		SS	Dansby Swanson	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		RF	Seiya Suzuki	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		1B	Michael Busch	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
simulation	MIL	1	LF	Jackson Chourio	5	5	3	1	1	1	3	0	0	0.600
simulation	MIL	2	2B	Brice Turang	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.500
simulation	MIL	3	C	William Contreras	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	MIL	4	DH	Christian Yelich	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
simulation	MIL	5	CF	Garrett Mitchell	5	3	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	MIL	6	1B	Jake Bauers	5	3	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	0.333
simulation	MIL	7	RF	Sal Frelick	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	8	SS	Joey Ortiz	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	MIL	9	3B	David Hamilton	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	CHC	1	2B	Nico Hoerner	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	CHC	2	3B	Alex Bregman	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	CHC	3	LF	Ian Happ	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0.333
simulation	CHC	4	RF	Seiya Suzuki	4	3	2	0	1	1	3	1	0	0.667
simulation	CHC	5	C	Carson Kelly	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	CHC	6	1B	Michael Busch	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	7	SS	Dansby Swanson	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHC	8	DH	Miguel Amaya	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	9	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIL	1	Kyle Harrison	Starter	5.0	6	2	2	3	6	1	0	0	3.60	2.09	1.19
current	MIL	2	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.73	1.45
current	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	9.00	4.42	1.15
current	MIL	4	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.18	1.06
current	MIL	5	DL Hall	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.69	1.22
current	CHC	1	Edward Cabrera	Starter	5.2	7	5	5	3	2	1	0	0	7.94	4.06	1.31
current	CHC	2	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.00	1.22
current	CHC	3	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.05	1.45
current	CHC	4	Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	9.00	8.78	1.65
current	CHC	5	Hoby Milner	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.08	0.97
current	CHC	6	Ryan Rolison	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		4.38	1.46
simulation	MIL	1	Kyle Harrison	Starter	5.0	6	2	2	3	6	1	24	93	3.60	2.09	1.19
simulation	MIL	2	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	0	5	20	9.00	4.42	1.15
simulation	MIL	3	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	23	0.00	2.73	1.45
simulation	MIL	4	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	16	0.00	3.18	1.06
simulation	MIL	5	DL Hall	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	21	0.00	1.69	1.22
simulation	CHC	1	Edward Cabrera	Starter	5.2	7	5	5	3	2	1	27	104	7.94	4.06	1.31
simulation	CHC	2	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	0	5	21	0.00	2.00	1.22
simulation	CHC	3	Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	2	1	1	7	8	9.00	8.78	1.65
simulation	CHC	4	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	19	0.00	3.05	1.45
simulation	CHC	5	Hoby Milner	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	17	0.00	2.08	0.97
simulation	CHC	6	Ryan Rolison	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18		4.38	1.46

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIL	Kyle Harrison	Starter	5.0	2	6	3	6	24	93
MIL	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	23
MIL	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	2	5	20
MIL	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
MIL	DL Hall	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	21
CHC	Edward Cabrera	Starter	5.2	5	7	3	2	27	104
CHC	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	2	1	5	21
CHC	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	19
CHC	Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	2	1	7	8
CHC	Hoby Milner	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	17
CHC	Ryan Rolison	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	18

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260520_NYM@WAS

20260520_NYM@WAS.json • 2026-05-20

NYM 8 - WAS 5

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Prediction target vs final simulation drift The inning simulation can vary from ML target, but large drift should be reviewed or explicitly documented as acceptable variance.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 6-7, final 8-5 (delta 4).

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 6-7, final 8-5 (delta 4).

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 6-7, final 8-5 (delta 4).
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=8; R: current=4, sim=8; BB: current=2, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Hayden Senger: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; A.J. Ewing: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Juan Soto: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Mark Vientos: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Brett Baty: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; MJ Melendez: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Carson Benge: H current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=4; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Curtis Mead: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Daylen Lile: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; James Wood: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Keibert Ruiz: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jacob Young: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andrés Chaparro: AB current=3 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Dylan Crews: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match WAS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match WAS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=40 matches WAS BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match NYM pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=38 matches NYM BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 13 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.4.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.276/0.652.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 8, WAS 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 8 - WAS 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: WAS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for WAS; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'opponent_team': 'WAS', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 16, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 9, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-04-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'WAS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260519_NYM@WAS.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 9, 'path': '20260518_NYM@WAS.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYM', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'output_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'final_score_winner': 'NYM', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': True}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'NYM 6 - 7 WAS', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 8 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': True, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_NYM@WAS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@WAS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 6 - 7 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 8 - 5 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 8-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation winner reversal is traced: pre=WAS, final=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYM wins 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 13.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 8-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 20/47 = 0.426.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 13/49 = 0.265.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match WAS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match WAS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=40 matches WAS BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match NYM pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match NYM pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=38 matches NYM BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 13 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.4.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.276/0.652.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 8, WAS 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 8 - WAS 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: WAS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for WAS; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'opponent_team': 'WAS', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 16, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 9, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-04-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'WAS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260519_NYM@WAS.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 9, 'path': '20260518_NYM@WAS.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYM', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'WAS', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'output_opponent_team': 'NYM', 'final_score_winner': 'NYM', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': True}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'NYM 6 - 7 WAS', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 8, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'NYM 8 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': True, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_NYM@WAS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@WAS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 6 - 7 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 8 - 5 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 8-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation winner reversal is traced: pre=WAS, final=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYM wins 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 8-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 13.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 8-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 20/47 = 0.426.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 13/49 = 0.265.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=8; R: current=4, sim=8; BB: current=2, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Hayden Senger: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; A.J. Ewing: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Juan Soto: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Mark Vientos: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Brett Baty: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; MJ Melendez: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Carson Benge: H current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=4; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Curtis Mead: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1; Daylen Lile: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; James Wood: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Keibert Ruiz: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jacob Young: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Andrés Chaparro: AB current=3 box=4, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Dylan Crews: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.079916477203369	5.081411838531494		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	6	7	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	6	7		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	8	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result
simulation_winner_reversal	8	5		Inning simulation reversed the pre-simulation winner; primary prediction fields remain the pre-simulation model target.

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	0	0	0	2	4	2	0	0	0	8	8
WAS	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	5	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	NYM	batting	33	9	0	0	0	5	4	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	NYM	pitching		7			2		5	3	4					9.0	5	0	0
current	WAS	batting	33	9	0	0	0	6	5	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	WAS	pitching		8			1		8	5	8					9.0	8	0	0
simulation	NYM	batting	33	8	1	0	1	8	8	5	8	2	0
simulation	NYM	pitching		7			2		5	3	4					9.0	5	38	145
simulation	WAS	batting	33	7	3	1	2	5	5	3	4	1	1
simulation	WAS	pitching		8			1		8	5	8					9.0	8	40	171

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	NYM		C	Hayden Senger	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	NYM		CF	A.J. Ewing	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		SS	Bo Bichette	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		LF	Juan Soto	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		1B	Mark Vientos	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		3B	Brett Baty	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		DH	MJ Melendez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		RF	Carson Benge	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		2B	Marcus Semien	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		3B	Curtis Mead	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		SS	CJ Abrams	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		LF	Daylen Lile	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		DH	James Wood	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		C	Keibert Ruiz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	WAS		CF	Jacob Young	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		1B	Andrés Chaparro	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	WAS		RF	Dylan Crews	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		2B	Nasim Nuñez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	NYM	1	RF	Carson Benge	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	2	SS	Bo Bichette	5	5	2	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	NYM	3	LF	Juan Soto	5	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0.333
simulation	NYM	4	1B	Mark Vientos	5	5	2	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	NYM	5	DH	MJ Melendez	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	NYM	6	3B	Brett Baty	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	NYM	7	2B	Marcus Semien	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	8	CF	A.J. Ewing	4	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	9	C	Hayden Senger	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	1	DH	James Wood	5	5	2	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	WAS	2	3B	Curtis Mead	5	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	3	1B	Andrés Chaparro	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	4	SS	CJ Abrams	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	5	RF	Dylan Crews	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	6	LF	Daylen Lile	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	7	CF	Jacob Young	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	8	2B	Nasim Nuñez	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	WAS	9	C	Keibert Ruiz	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	NYM	1	Zach Pop	Starter	3.0	2	2	2	2	4	1	0	0	6.00	3.68	1.09
current	NYM	4	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.47	1.15
current	NYM	5	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	2.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.45	1.21
current	NYM	6	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	2.0	4	3	3	0	0	1	0	0	13.50	3.54	1.13
current	WAS	1	Zack Littell	Starter	4.0	7	6	6	3	6	0	0	0	13.50	6.10	1.50
current	WAS	2	Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.09	1.09
current	WAS	3	Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	13.50	3.86	1.45
current	WAS	4	Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.61	1.65
current	WAS	5	PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.91	1.48
simulation	NYM	1	Zach Pop	Starter	3.0	2	2	2	2	4	1	14	52	6.00	3.68	1.09
simulation	NYM	2	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	2.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	8	32	0.00	3.45	1.21
simulation	NYM	3	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	2.0	4	3	3	0	0	1	10	36	13.50	3.54	1.13
simulation	NYM	4	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	25	0.00	1.47	1.15
simulation	WAS	1	Zack Littell	Starter	4.0	7	6	6	3	6	0	22	83	13.50	6.10	1.50
simulation	WAS	2	Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	2	2	2	1	1	7	28	13.50	3.86	1.45
simulation	WAS	3	PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	19	0.00	2.91	1.48
simulation	WAS	4	Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	25	0.00	3.09	1.09
simulation	WAS	5	Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	16	0.00	2.61	1.65

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
NYM	Zach Pop	Starter	3.0	2	2	2	4	14	52
NYM	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	0	6	25
NYM	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	1	1	0	8	32
NYM	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	2.0	3	4	0	0	10	36
WAS	Zack Littell	Starter	4.0	6	7	3	6	22	83
WAS	Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	4	25
WAS	Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	1	2	1	7	28
WAS	Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
WAS	PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	19

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	warning	1	0	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260520_OAK@LAA

20260520_OAK@LAA.json • 2026-05-20

OAK 4 - LAA 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 92INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jorge Soler: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Oswald Peraza: SO current=1 box=0; Zach Neto: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Logan O'Hoppe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Josh Lowe: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nolan Schanuel: BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=4; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jeff McNeil: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brent Rooker: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Shea Langeliers: BB current=0 box=1; Carlos Cortes: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Henry Bolte: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Darell Hernaiz: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Nick Kurtz: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=40 matches OAK BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match LAA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match LAA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=39 matches LAA BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.545.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.545.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.455.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.303/0.707.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 8, LAA 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 4 - LAA 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: OAK.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for OAK; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'opponent_team': 'LAA', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'LAA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'confidence': 0.5733900000000001, 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260519_OAK@LAA.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'confidence': 0.5733900000000001, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260518_OAK@LAA.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'OAK', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'OAK', 'output_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'final_score_winner': 'OAK', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'OAK', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'OAK 4 - 3 LAA', 'winner': 'OAK'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'OAK 4 - 3 LAA', 'winner': 'OAK'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_OAK@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@LAA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 180.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 180.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 4 - 3 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 4 - 3 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: OAK wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=OAK, final=OAK.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.545.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: OAK wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: OAK wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: OAK wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 7/49 = 0.143.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 12/48 = 0.250.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=40 matches OAK BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match LAA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match LAA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match LAA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=39 matches LAA BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.545.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.545.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.455.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.303/0.707.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 8, LAA 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 4 - LAA 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: OAK.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for OAK; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'opponent_team': 'LAA', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'LAA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'confidence': 0.5733900000000001, 'actual_winner': 'LAA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260519_OAK@LAA.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'confidence': 0.5733900000000001, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260518_OAK@LAA.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'OAK', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'OAK', 'output_opponent_team': 'LAA', 'final_score_winner': 'OAK', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'OAK', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'OAK 4 - 3 LAA', 'winner': 'OAK'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'OAK 4 - 3 LAA', 'winner': 'OAK'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_OAK@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@LAA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 180.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 180.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 4 - 3 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 4 - 3 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: OAK wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=OAK, final=OAK.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.545.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: OAK wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: OAK wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: OAK wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 7/49 = 0.143.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 12/48 = 0.250.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jorge Soler: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Oswald Peraza: SO current=1 box=0; Zach Neto: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=5, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Logan O'Hoppe: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Josh Lowe: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nolan Schanuel: BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=4; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jeff McNeil: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Brent Rooker: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Shea Langeliers: BB current=0 box=1; Carlos Cortes: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Henry Bolte: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Darell Hernaiz: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Nick Kurtz: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.499945163726807	4.892679691314697		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.545	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	4	8
LAA	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	OAK	batting	34	9	0	0	0	4	3	1	7	0	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		10			1		3	2	9					9.0	3	0	0
current	LAA	batting	34	9	0	0	0	1	2	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	LAA	pitching		8			0		4	4	7					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	OAK	batting	34	8	2	0	0	4	4	4	7	1	0
simulation	OAK	pitching		10			1		3	2	9					9.0	3	40	164
simulation	LAA	batting	37	10	1	0	1	3	3	2	9	0	1
simulation	LAA	pitching		8			0		4	4	7					9.0	4	39	180

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	OAK		2B	Jeff McNeil	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		DH	Brent Rooker	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		3B	Zack Gelof	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		C	Shea Langeliers	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		RF	Carlos Cortes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	OAK		CF	Henry Bolte	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		SS	Darell Hernaiz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	OAK		1B	Nick Kurtz	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		LF	Tyler Soderstrom	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		DH	Jorge Soler	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		2B	Oswald Peraza	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		SS	Zach Neto	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		CF	Mike Trout	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		3B	Vaughn Grissom	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	LAA		C	Logan O'Hoppe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		LF	Josh Lowe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAA		1B	Nolan Schanuel	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		RF	Jo Adell	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	1	RF	Carlos Cortes	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	2	C	Shea Langeliers	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	3	1B	Nick Kurtz	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	4	DH	Brent Rooker	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	5	LF	Tyler Soderstrom	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	6	3B	Zack Gelof	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	OAK	7	2B	Jeff McNeil	4	4	3	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.750
simulation	OAK	8	CF	Henry Bolte	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	9	SS	Darell Hernaiz	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	1	SS	Zach Neto	5	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	0.500
simulation	LAA	2	CF	Mike Trout	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	LAA	3	1B	Nolan Schanuel	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	4	DH	Jorge Soler	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	5	3B	Vaughn Grissom	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	6	RF	Jo Adell	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	LAA	7	2B	Oswald Peraza	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	8	C	Logan O'Hoppe	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	LAA	9	LF	Josh Lowe	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	OAK	1	Aaron Civale	Starter	5.2	8	3	3	2	5	1	0	0	4.76	2.70	1.39
current	OAK	2	Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.55	1.02
current	OAK	3	Scott Barlow	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.61	0.72
current	OAK	4	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.13	1.65
current	OAK	5	Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	6.86	1.63
current	LAA	1	Jack Kochanowicz	Starter	5.2	2	1	1	4	4	0	0	0	1.59	4.56	1.36
current	LAA	2	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.50	1.23
current	LAA	3	Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	6.75	2.82	0.99
current	LAA	4	Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.91	1.09
current	LAA	6	José Fermin	Middle Reliever	0.0	4	2	2	0	0	0	0	0		3.86	1.07
simulation	OAK	1	Aaron Civale	Starter	5.2	8	3	3	2	5	1	27	103	4.76	2.70	1.39
simulation	OAK	2	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	14	0.00	3.13	1.65
simulation	OAK	3	Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	2.55	1.02
simulation	OAK	4	Scott Barlow	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	1.61	0.72
simulation	OAK	5	Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	6.86	1.63
simulation	LAA	1	Jack Kochanowicz	Starter	5.2	2	1	1	4	4	0	23	104	1.59	4.56	1.36
simulation	LAA	2	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	23	0.00	4.50	1.23
simulation	LAA	3	Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	0	5	20	6.75	2.82	0.99
simulation	LAA	4	Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	0	3	17	0.00	4.91	1.09
simulation	LAA	5	José Fermin	Middle Reliever	0.0	4	2	2	0	0	0	4	16		3.86	1.07

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
OAK	Aaron Civale	Starter	5.2	3	8	2	5	27	103
OAK	Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
OAK	Scott Barlow	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
OAK	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	2	2	14
OAK	Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	1	3	15
LAA	Jack Kochanowicz	Starter	5.2	1	2	4	4	23	104
LAA	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	23
LAA	Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	0	0	5	20
LAA	Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	0	2	3	17
LAA	José Fermin	Middle Reliever	0.0	2	4	0	0	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260520_PIT@STL

20260520_PIT@STL.json • 2026-05-20

PIT 2 - STL 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 93INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=13).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Mangum: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jhostynxon Garcia: AB current=4 box=3; Oneil Cruz: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Endy Rodríguez: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Spencer Horwitz: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Lowe: RBI current=1 box=0; Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=28; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Wetherholt: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Masyn Winn: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; César Prieto: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nolan Gorman: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Iván Herrera: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Nathan Church: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Victor Scott II: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match STL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match STL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=34 matches STL BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match PIT pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match PIT pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=33 matches PIT BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.411.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.589.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.589.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.303/0.707.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PIT 5, STL 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PIT 2 - STL 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for STL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.588607, 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'file': '20260519_PIT@STL.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_PIT@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PIT@STL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PIT 4 - 6 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PIT 2 - 6 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=STL, final=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.589.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: STL wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 2-6 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 10/48 = 0.208.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 10/47 = 0.213.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match STL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match STL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=34 matches STL BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match PIT pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match PIT pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=33 matches PIT BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.411.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.589.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.589.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.303/0.707.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PIT 5, STL 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PIT 2 - STL 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for STL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.588607, 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'file': '20260519_PIT@STL.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_PIT@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PIT@STL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 152.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 152.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PIT 4 - 6 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PIT 2 - 6 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=STL, final=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.589.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: STL wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-6, final 2-6 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 10/48 = 0.208.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 10/47 = 0.213.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=13).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Mangum: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jhostynxon Garcia: AB current=4 box=3; Oneil Cruz: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Endy Rodríguez: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nick Gonzales: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Spencer Horwitz: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Lowe: RBI current=1 box=0; Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=28; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Wetherholt: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Masyn Winn: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; César Prieto: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nolan Gorman: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Iván Herrera: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Nathan Church: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Victor Scott II: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	6.0946946144104	5.596978664398193		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	6	0.589	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
capped_target	4	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	5
STL	1	0	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	6	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	PIT	batting	35	9	1	0	0	4	4	3	10	0	0	0	0
current	PIT	pitching		6			1		6	2	5					8.0	6	0	0
current	STL	batting	34	9	0	0	0	5	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		5			0		2	2	13					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	PIT	batting	32	5	2	0	0	2	2	2	13	0	0
simulation	PIT	pitching		6			1		6	2	5					8.0	6	33	132
simulation	STL	batting	28	6	2	0	1	6	6	2	5	2	1
simulation	STL	pitching		5			0		2	2	13					9.0	2	34	152

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	PIT		RF	Jake Mangum	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		CF	Jhostynxon Garcia	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		DH	Oneil Cruz	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
current	PIT		C	Endy Rodríguez	0	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		3B	Nick Gonzales	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		1B	Spencer Horwitz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	PIT		2B	Brandon Lowe	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		LF	Bryan Reynolds	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		SS	Konnor Griffin	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		2B	JJ Wetherholt	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	STL		SS	Masyn Winn	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		3B	César Prieto	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	STL		DH	Nolan Gorman	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	STL		C	Iván Herrera	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	STL		1B	Alec Burleson	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		LF	Nathan Church	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		CF	Victor Scott II	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	STL		RF	Jordan Walker	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	1	3B	Nick Gonzales	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	2	2B	Brandon Lowe	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	3	LF	Bryan Reynolds	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	4	DH	Oneil Cruz	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	5	1B	Spencer Horwitz	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	6	SS	Konnor Griffin	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	7	C	Endy Rodríguez	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	8	CF	Jhostynxon Garcia	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	9	RF	Jake Mangum	3	3	1	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	0.333
simulation	STL	1	2B	JJ Wetherholt	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.000
simulation	STL	2	C	Iván Herrera	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	STL	3	1B	Alec Burleson	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	STL	4	RF	Jordan Walker	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	STL	5	DH	Nolan Gorman	4	3	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	STL	6	SS	Masyn Winn	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	STL	7	3B	César Prieto	3	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	STL	8	LF	Nathan Church	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	STL	9	CF	Victor Scott II	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	PIT	1	Carmen Mlodzinski	Starter	5.0	4	3	3	2	3	0	0	0	5.40	4.40	1.44
current	PIT	2	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.31	0.81
current	PIT	3	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	2	0	2	1	0	0	18.00	3.00	1.22
current	PIT	4	Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	3.72	1.24
current	STL	1	Michael McGreevy	Starter	6.0	3	2	2	2	8	0	0	0	3.00	2.10	0.88
current	STL	2	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.48	1.21
current	STL	3	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.04	1.18
current	STL	4	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	3.13	1.00
simulation	PIT	1	Carmen Mlodzinski	Starter	5.0	4	3	3	2	3	0	22	84	5.40	4.40	1.44
simulation	PIT	2	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	16	0.00	2.31	0.81
simulation	PIT	3	Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	4	16	9.00	3.72	1.24
simulation	PIT	4	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	2	0	2	1	4	16	18.00	3.00	1.22
simulation	STL	1	Michael McGreevy	Starter	6.0	3	2	2	2	8	0	23	99	3.00	2.10	0.88
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	0	4	18	0.00	3.13	1.00
simulation	STL	3	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	18	0.00	3.04	1.18
simulation	STL	4	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.48	1.21

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
PIT	Carmen Mlodzinski	Starter	5.0	3	4	2	3	22	84
PIT	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	16
PIT	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	0	2	4	16
PIT	Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16
STL	Michael McGreevy	Starter	6.0	2	3	2	8	23	99
STL	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	17
STL	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	18
STL	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	3	4	18

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260520_SF@ARI

20260520_SF@ARI.json • 2026-05-20

SF 3 - ARI 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 93INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ildemaro Vargas: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; Geraldo Perdomo: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Adrian Del Castillo: AB current=4 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Waldschmidt: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jorge Barrosa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=0, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drew Gilbert: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Willy Adames: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Will Brennan: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Luis Arraez: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Daniel Susac: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: AB current=3 box=4; Rafael Devers: SO current=1 box=2; Casey Schmitt: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match SF pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=37 matches SF BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match ARI pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=38 matches ARI BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.427.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.573.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.573.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.298/0.696.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 7, ARI 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 3 - ARI 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ARI.	{'winner_confidence': 0.57339, 'h2h_net_margin': 10, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 10, 'file': '20260519_SF@ARI.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'SF', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260518_SF@ARI.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_SF@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@ARI.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 150.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 150.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 3 - 5 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 3 - 5 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ARI, final=ARI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.573.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ARI wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ARI wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 18/47 = 0.383.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 7/49 = 0.143.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match SF pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=37 matches SF BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match ARI pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=38 matches ARI BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.427.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.573.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.573.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.298/0.696.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 7, ARI 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 3 - ARI 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ARI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ARI.	{'winner_confidence': 0.57339, 'h2h_net_margin': 10, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 10, 'file': '20260519_SF@ARI.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'SF', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'file': '20260518_SF@ARI.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_SF@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@ARI.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 150.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 150.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 3 - 5 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 3 - 5 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ARI, final=ARI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.573.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ARI wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ARI wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 18/47 = 0.383.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 7/49 = 0.143.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ildemaro Vargas: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; Geraldo Perdomo: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Adrian Del Castillo: AB current=4 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Lourdes Gurriel Jr.: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Waldschmidt: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jorge Barrosa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=0, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drew Gilbert: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Willy Adames: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Will Brennan: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Luis Arraez: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Daniel Susac: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Bryce Eldridge: AB current=3 box=4; Rafael Devers: SO current=1 box=2; Casey Schmitt: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.65017032623291	4.349710464477539		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	5	0.573	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
capped_target	3	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	7
ARI	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	5	11

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SF	batting	33	9	0	0	0	1	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		11			1		5	1	7					8.0	5	0	0
current	ARI	batting	33	8	0	0	0	3	3	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	ARI	pitching		7			1		3	4	8					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	SF	batting	34	7	1	0	1	3	3	4	8	0	0
simulation	SF	pitching		11			1		5	1	7					8.0	5	37	150
simulation	ARI	batting	35	11	1	0	1	5	5	1	7	0	1
simulation	ARI	pitching		7			1		3	4	8					9.0	3	38	164

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	SF		CF	Drew Gilbert	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		SS	Willy Adames	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		RF	Will Brennan	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	SF		2B	Luis Arraez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		C	Daniel Susac	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		DH	Bryce Eldridge	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		1B	Rafael Devers	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		LF	Casey Schmitt	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		3B	Matt Chapman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		1B	Ildemaro Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		2B	Ketel Marte	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		LF	Tim Tawa	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	ARI		SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		C	Adrian Del Castillo	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		DH	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		CF	Ryan Waldschmidt	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ARI		RF	Jorge Barrosa	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	ARI		3B	Jose Fernandez	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SF	1	RF	Will Brennan	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	SF	2	2B	Luis Arraez	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	SF	3	LF	Casey Schmitt	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SF	4	1B	Rafael Devers	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	SF	5	SS	Willy Adames	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	SF	6	3B	Matt Chapman	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	SF	7	DH	Bryce Eldridge	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SF	8	C	Daniel Susac	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	9	CF	Drew Gilbert	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	ARI	1	2B	Ketel Marte	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	ARI	2	1B	Ildemaro Vargas	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	3	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	4	4	2	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	ARI	4	C	Adrian Del Castillo	4	2	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	1	0.500
simulation	ARI	5	DH	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	6	3B	Jose Fernandez	4	4	3	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.750
simulation	ARI	7	RF	Jorge Barrosa	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	8	LF	Tim Tawa	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	9	CF	Ryan Waldschmidt	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SF	1	Tyler Mahle	Starter	4.2	10	4	4	1	5	0	0	0	7.71	5.59	1.56
current	SF	2	Joel Peguero	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.42	0.63
current	SF	3	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	2.21	0.84
current	SF	5	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.53	1.12
current	ARI	1	Merrill Kelly	Starter	4.2	7	3	3	3	4	1	0	0	5.79	5.91	1.54
current	ARI	2	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.43
current	ARI	3	Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	10.80	2.40
current	ARI	4	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	9.00	2.00
current	ARI	5	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
simulation	SF	1	Tyler Mahle	Starter	4.2	10	4	4	1	5	0	25	94	7.71	5.59	1.56
simulation	SF	2	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	19	0.00	2.53	1.12
simulation	SF	3	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	4	16	9.00	2.21	0.84
simulation	SF	4	Joel Peguero	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	21	0.00	1.42	0.63
simulation	ARI	1	Merrill Kelly	Starter	4.2	7	3	3	3	4	1	24	96	5.79	5.91	1.54
simulation	ARI	2	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	0.00	0.00
simulation	ARI	3	Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	20	0.00	10.80	2.40
simulation	ARI	4	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	17	0.00	0.00	0.43
simulation	ARI	5	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	14	0.00	9.00	2.00

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SF	Tyler Mahle	Starter	4.2	4	10	1	5	25	94
SF	Joel Peguero	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	5	21
SF	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	16
SF	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	3	19
ARI	Merrill Kelly	Starter	4.2	3	7	3	4	24	96
ARI	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	17
ARI	Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	20
ARI	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	14
ARI	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260520_TEX@COL

20260520_TEX@COL.json • 2026-05-20

TEX 3 - COL 7

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 92INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=1, sim=7; R: current=0, sim=7; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mickey Moniak: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=3, RBI current=1 box=4; Tyler Freeman: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Ezequiel Tovar: R current=0 box=1; TJ Rumfield: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jake McCarthy: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Troy Johnston: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Edouard Julien: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=2; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Michael Helman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Kyle Higashioka: RBI current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Andrew McCutchen: AB current=3 box=5; Sam Haggerty: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Jung: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Justin Foscue: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Advisory simulation varied from enhanced target without changing winner: target 4-5, final 3-7 (delta 3).		No action required unless advisory simulation is promoted to canonical prediction.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match TEX pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match TEX pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match TEX pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=38 matches TEX BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match COL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match COL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match COL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=37 matches COL BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.298/0.696.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 8, COL 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 3 - COL 7.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: COL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for COL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'COL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'COL', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260519_TEX@COL.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'COL', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260518_TEX@COL.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TEX', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'COL', 'output_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'final_score_winner': 'COL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'COL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'COL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'TEX 3 - 7 COL', 'winner': 'COL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 2, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_TEX@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@COL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 4 - 5 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 3 - 7 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: COL wins 7-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=COL, final=COL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: COL wins 7-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: COL wins 3-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: COL wins 7-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 8/48 = 0.167.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 14/48 = 0.292.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match TEX pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match TEX pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match TEX pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=38 matches TEX BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match COL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match COL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match COL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=37 matches COL BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.298/0.696.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 8, COL 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 3 - COL 7.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: COL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for COL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TEX', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'COL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'COL', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260519_TEX@COL.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'COL', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260518_TEX@COL.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'TEX', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'COL', 'output_opponent_team': 'TEX', 'final_score_winner': 'COL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'COL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 5 COL', 'winner': 'COL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'TEX 3 - 7 COL', 'winner': 'COL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 2, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_TEX@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@COL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 4 - 5 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 3 - 7 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: COL wins 7-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=COL, final=COL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: COL wins 7-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: COL wins 3-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: COL wins 7-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 8/48 = 0.167.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 14/48 = 0.292.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=1, sim=7; R: current=0, sim=7; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mickey Moniak: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=3, RBI current=1 box=4; Tyler Freeman: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Ezequiel Tovar: R current=0 box=1; TJ Rumfield: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jake McCarthy: AB current=3 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Troy Johnston: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Edouard Julien: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=0, sim=2; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Michael Helman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Kyle Higashioka: RBI current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Andrew McCutchen: AB current=3 box=5; Sam Haggerty: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Jung: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Nimmo: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Justin Foscue: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Advisory simulation varied from enhanced target without changing winner: target 4-5, final 3-7 (delta 3).	No action required unless advisory simulation is promoted to canonical prediction.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.286250591278076	3.982739210128784		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	7		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	8
COL	1	2	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	7	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TEX	batting	33	9	0	0	0	4	2	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	TEX	pitching		10			3		7	2	7					8.0	7	0	0
current	COL	batting	34	9	0	0	0	1	0	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	COL	pitching		8			0		3	2	9					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	TEX	batting	34	8	2	1	0	3	3	2	9	1	0
simulation	TEX	pitching		10			3		7	2	7					8.0	7	38	156
simulation	COL	batting	34	10	2	0	3	7	7	2	7	0	2
simulation	COL	pitching		8			0		3	2	9					9.0	3	37	156

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TEX		CF	Michael Helman	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		C	Kyle Higashioka	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		1B	Jake Burger	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		DH	Andrew McCutchen	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		LF	Sam Haggerty	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		3B	Josh Jung	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		RF	Brandon Nimmo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		2B	Justin Foscue	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		SS	Ezequiel Duran	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		DH	Mickey Moniak	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		RF	Tyler Freeman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		3B	Kyle Karros	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	COL		SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		1B	TJ Rumfield	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		CF	Jake McCarthy	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	COL		LF	Troy Johnston	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		2B	Edouard Julien	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		C	Brett Sullivan	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	1	DH	Andrew McCutchen	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	TEX	2	2B	Justin Foscue	4	3	2	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	TEX	3	RF	Brandon Nimmo	4	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	TEX	4	3B	Josh Jung	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	5	SS	Ezequiel Duran	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	6	1B	Jake Burger	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	7	CF	Michael Helman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	8	C	Kyle Higashioka	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	9	LF	Sam Haggerty	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	COL	1	CF	Jake McCarthy	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	COL	2	DH	Mickey Moniak	5	5	3	0	0	3	1	4	0	0	0	0.600
simulation	COL	3	RF	Tyler Freeman	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	COL	4	1B	TJ Rumfield	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	COL	5	LF	Troy Johnston	4	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.667
simulation	COL	6	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	COL	7	2B	Edouard Julien	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	COL	8	3B	Kyle Karros	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	COL	9	C	Brett Sullivan	4	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TEX	1	Jack Leiter	Starter	5.2	8	7	7	1	5	3	0	0	11.12	4.35	1.35
current	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.83	0.42
current	TEX	3	Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.80	0.75
current	TEX	4	Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		4.74	1.42
current	TEX	6	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		2.05	1.32
current	COL	1	Kyle Freeland	Starter	4.2	6	3	3	1	4	0	0	0	5.79	7.22	1.66
current	COL	2	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.27	0.81
current	COL	3	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.91	1.48
current	COL	4	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	6.50	1.94
simulation	TEX	1	Jack Leiter	Starter	5.2	8	7	7	1	5	3	26	99	11.12	4.35	1.35
simulation	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	0.83	0.42
simulation	TEX	3	Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	9	0.00	1.80	0.75
simulation	TEX	4	Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	0.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	15		4.74	1.42
simulation	TEX	5	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16		2.05	1.32
simulation	COL	1	Kyle Freeland	Starter	4.2	6	3	3	1	4	0	21	85	5.79	7.22	1.66
simulation	COL	2	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	20	0.00	6.50	1.94
simulation	COL	3	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	1	1	0	7	27	0.00	1.27	0.81
simulation	COL	4	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	2	0	6	24	0.00	3.91	1.48

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TEX	Jack Leiter	Starter	5.2	7	8	1	5	26	99
TEX	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	4	17
TEX	Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	9
TEX	Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	1	0	0	3	15
TEX	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	16
COL	Kyle Freeland	Starter	4.2	3	6	1	4	21	85
COL	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	1	1	7	27
COL	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	0	2	6	24
COL	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	20

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	info	0	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260520_TOR@NYY

20260520_TOR@NYY.json • 2026-05-20

TOR 2 - NYY 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 93INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=6, sim=4; BB: current=6, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Trent Grisham: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Ben Rice: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Aaron Judge: AB current=4 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Cody Bellinger: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Paul Goldschmidt: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Anthony Volpe: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Ryan McMahon: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=6; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yohendrick Pinango: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Daulton Varsho: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ernie Clement: H current=1 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; George Springer: SO current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Valenzuela: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jesús Sánchez: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match TOR pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match TOR pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=34 matches TOR BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match NYY pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=36 matches NYY BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.452.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.9.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.400/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 6, NYY 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 2 - NYY 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'TOR', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'NYY'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260519_TOR@NYY.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260518_TOR@NYY.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 3 - 4 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 2 - 4 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_TOR@NYY.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@NYY.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 148.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 148.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 3 - 4 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 2 - 4 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYY, final=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.548.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYY wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 2-4 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 16/49 = 0.327.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 12/48 = 0.250.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match TOR pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match TOR pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=34 matches TOR BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match NYY pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=36 matches NYY BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.452.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.9.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.400/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 6, NYY 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 2 - NYY 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'TOR', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'NYY'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-19', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260519_TOR@NYY.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-18', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260518_TOR@NYY.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYY', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'output_opponent_team': 'TOR', 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 3 - 4 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 2 - 4 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-20.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260520_TOR@NYY.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@NYY.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 148.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 148.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 3 - 4 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 2 - 4 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 4-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYY, final=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.548.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYY wins 4-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 2-4 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 4-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 16/49 = 0.327.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 12/48 = 0.250.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=6, sim=4; BB: current=6, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Trent Grisham: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Ben Rice: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Aaron Judge: AB current=4 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Cody Bellinger: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Paul Goldschmidt: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Anthony Volpe: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Ryan McMahon: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=6; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=2; BB: current=1, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yohendrick Pinango: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Daulton Varsho: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Ernie Clement: H current=1 box=2, SO current=0 box=1; George Springer: SO current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Valenzuela: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jesús Sánchez: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.934778213500977	4.75504732131958		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.548	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	6
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	4	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TOR	batting	33	9	0	0	0	1	3	1	7	0	0	0	0
current	TOR	pitching		7			2		4	3	8					8.0	4	0	0
current	NYY	batting	33	8	0	0	0	5	6	6	9	0	0	0	0
current	NYY	pitching		6			1		2	3	9					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	TOR	batting	33	6	0	0	1	2	2	3	9	0	0
simulation	TOR	pitching		7			2		4	3	8					8.0	4	34	148
simulation	NYY	batting	31	7	1	0	2	4	4	3	8	0	0
simulation	NYY	pitching		6			1		2	3	9					9.0	2	36	156

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	TOR		LF	Yohendrick Pinango	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TOR		CF	Daulton Varsho	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	TOR		3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	TOR		2B	Ernie Clement	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		DH	George Springer	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	TOR		1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	TOR		C	Brandon Valenzuela	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	TOR		RF	Jesús Sánchez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	TOR		SS	Andrés Giménez	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	NYY		CF	Trent Grisham	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	NYY		DH	Ben Rice	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	NYY		RF	Aaron Judge	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	NYY		LF	Cody Bellinger	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	NYY		1B	Paul Goldschmidt	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	NYY		SS	Anthony Volpe	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	NYY		3B	Ryan McMahon	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	NYY		C	Austin Wells	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	TOR	1	DH	George Springer	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	2	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	TOR	3	CF	Daulton Varsho	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	TOR	4	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	TOR	5	LF	Yohendrick Pinango	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	0.333
simulation	TOR	6	2B	Ernie Clement	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	TOR	7	RF	Jesús Sánchez	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	8	C	Brandon Valenzuela	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	TOR	9	SS	Andrés Giménez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	1	DH	Ben Rice	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	NYY	2	RF	Aaron Judge	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	NYY	3	LF	Cody Bellinger	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	NYY	4	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	NYY	5	1B	Paul Goldschmidt	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	NYY	6	CF	Trent Grisham	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	NYY	7	3B	Ryan McMahon	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	NYY	8	SS	Anthony Volpe	3	3	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0.333
simulation	NYY	9	C	Austin Wells	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TOR	1	Trey Yesavage	Starter	5.1	2	2	2	2	7	0	0	0	3.38	1.40	1.29
current	TOR	3	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.2	4	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	5.40	0.36	1.14
current	TOR	4	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	1.69	1.12
current	NYY	1	Cam Schlittler	Starter	6.1	3	1	1	2	6	1	0	0	1.42	1.35	0.78
current	NYY	2	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	5.14	1.62
current	NYY	3	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	9.00	2.25	1.35
current	NYY	4	Tim Hill	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.37	0.86
simulation	TOR	1	Trey Yesavage	Starter	5.1	2	2	2	2	7	0	20	95	3.38	1.40	1.29
simulation	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.2	4	1	1	1	1	1	10	37	5.40	0.36	1.14
simulation	TOR	3	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	4	16	9.00	1.69	1.12
simulation	NYY	1	Cam Schlittler	Starter	6.1	3	1	1	2	6	1	24	103	1.42	1.35	0.78
simulation	NYY	2	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	20	0.00	5.14	1.62
simulation	NYY	3	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	0	6	23	9.00	2.25	1.35
simulation	NYY	4	Tim Hill	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	10	0.00	1.37	0.86

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TOR	Trey Yesavage	Starter	5.1	2	2	2	7	20	95
TOR	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	4	1	1	10	37
TOR	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16
NYY	Cam Schlittler	Starter	6.1	1	3	2	6	24	103
NYY	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	20
NYY	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	1	1	6	23
NYY	Tim Hill	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	10

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.