MLB JSON Audit Report

20260514_CHC@ATL

20260514_CHC@ATL.json • 2026-05-14

CHC 3 - ATL 8

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 8

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Prediction target vs final simulation drift The inning simulation can vary from ML target, but large drift should be reviewed or explicitly documented as acceptable variance.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 6-7, final 3-8 (delta 4).

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 6-7, final 3-8 (delta 4).

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 6-7, final 3-8 (delta 4).
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=13; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Austin Riley: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Mike Yastrzemski: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ha-Seong Kim: AB current=3 box=4; Mauricio Dubón: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Dominic Smith: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=15, sim=13; R: current=10, sim=8; ER: current=10, sim=8; SO: current=10, sim=7).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=9; SO: current=9, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Miguel Amaya: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Alex Bregman: H current=1 box=0; Michael Busch: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Seiya Suzuki: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ian Happ: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Dansby Swanson: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match CHC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match CHC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match CHC pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=41 matches CHC BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match ATL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match ATL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=41 matches ATL BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.9.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.389/0.878.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 5, ATL 13.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 3 - ATL 8.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ATL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': -6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.512854, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260513_CHC@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.510619, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260512_CHC@ATL.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'ATL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 7 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 8, 'score_text': 'CHC 3 - 8 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -3, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_CHC@ATL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@ATL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 6 - 7 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 3 - 8 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 8-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ATL, final=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 8-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 3-8.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-8.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 8-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 13/43 = 0.302.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 12/43 = 0.279.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match CHC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match CHC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match CHC pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=41 matches CHC BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match ATL pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match ATL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=41 matches ATL BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.9.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.389/0.878.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 5, ATL 13.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 3 - ATL 8.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: ATL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ATL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': -6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.512854, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260513_CHC@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.510619, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260512_CHC@ATL.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHC', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'ATL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHC', 'final_score_winner': 'ATL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ATL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 7, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 7 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 8, 'score_text': 'CHC 3 - 8 ATL', 'winner': 'ATL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -3, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_CHC@ATL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@ATL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 173.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 6 - 7 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 3 - 8 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 8-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=ATL, final=ATL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 8-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 3-8.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-8.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 8-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 13/43 = 0.302.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 12/43 = 0.279.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=13; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Austin Riley: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Mike Yastrzemski: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ha-Seong Kim: AB current=3 box=4; Mauricio Dubón: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Dominic Smith: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=15, sim=13; R: current=10, sim=8; ER: current=10, sim=8; SO: current=10, sim=7).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=3; BB: current=4, sim=9; SO: current=9, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Miguel Amaya: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Alex Bregman: H current=1 box=0; Michael Busch: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Seiya Suzuki: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Ian Happ: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Dansby Swanson: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	7.936920166015625	4.287641525268555		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	8	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	6	7	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	6	7		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	8		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	5
ATL	1	0	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	8	13

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHC	batting	33	8	0	0	3	3	4	9	0	0	0	0
current	CHC	pitching		15				10	4	10					9.2	10	0	0
current	ATL	batting	35	9	0	0	4	5	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		5				3	9	7					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	CHC	batting	32	5	3	0	3	3	9	7	0	0
simulation	CHC	pitching		13				8	4	7					8.0	8	41	162
simulation	ATL	batting	37	13	3	0	8	8	4	7	0	0
simulation	ATL	pitching		5				3	9	7					9.0	3	41	173

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	CHC		2B	Nico Hoerner	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	CHC		C	Miguel Amaya	0	3	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.333
current	CHC		3B	Alex Bregman	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		1B	Michael Busch	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		DH	Seiya Suzuki	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHC		LF	Ian Happ	0	4	1	0	1	0	1	2	0.250
current	CHC		CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	CHC		SS	Dansby Swanson	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	CHC		RF	Matt Shaw	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ATL		C	Drake Baldwin	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		RF	Mike Yastrzemski	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		SS	Ha-Seong Kim	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ATL		LF	Mauricio Dubón	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		DH	Dominic Smith	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		CF	Michael Harris II	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CHC	1	2B	Nico Hoerner	5	3	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	2	3B	Alex Bregman	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	3	LF	Ian Happ	5	4	2	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	CHC	4	DH	Seiya Suzuki	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	3	0.000
simulation	CHC	5	RF	Matt Shaw	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	6	1B	Michael Busch	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	7	SS	Dansby Swanson	4	3	1	1	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	CHC	8	C	Miguel Amaya	4	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	9	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	4	4	2	1	1	3	0	0	0.500
simulation	ATL	1	C	Drake Baldwin	5	4	1	1	1	0	1	2	0.250
simulation	ATL	2	2B	Ozzie Albies	5	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	ATL	3	1B	Matt Olson	5	4	1	0	1	1	1	2	0.250
simulation	ATL	4	CF	Michael Harris II	5	5	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	ATL	5	LF	Mauricio Dubón	5	5	2	1	1	1	0	0	0.400
simulation	ATL	6	3B	Austin Riley	4	4	2	1	1	2	0	1	0.500
simulation	ATL	7	DH	Dominic Smith	4	4	2	0	1	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	ATL	8	SS	Ha-Seong Kim	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	ATL	9	RF	Mike Yastrzemski	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHC	1	Ben Brown	Starter	4.1	4	1	1	2	5	0	0	2.08	1.82	0.91
current	CHC	2	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	3.63	1.50
current	CHC	3	Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	1.1	7	7	7	2	0	0	0	47.25	8.44	1.69
current	CHC	4	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	2.57	1.14
current	CHC	5	Ryan Rolison	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	9.00	3.38	1.31
current	CHC	6	Hoby Milner	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	13.50	2.45	1.04
current	ATL	1	Chris Sale	Starter	3.1	2	1	1	4	3	0	0	2.70	2.20	0.88
current	ATL	2	Aaron Bummer	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	4.85	1.54
current	ATL	3	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.63
current	ATL	4	Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.50	0.94
current	ATL	5	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.87	0.44
current	ATL	6	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	0.1	2	2	2	2	1	0	0	54.00	3.50	1.33
simulation	CHC	1	Ben Brown	Starter	4.1	4	1	1	2	5	21	87	2.08	1.82	0.91
simulation	CHC	2	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	4	16	0.00	2.57	1.14
simulation	CHC	3	Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	1.1	7	7	7	2	0	12	44	47.25	8.44	1.69
simulation	CHC	4	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	4	15	0.00	3.63	1.50
simulation	ATL	1	Chris Sale	Starter	3.1	2	1	1	4	3	18	81	2.70	2.20	0.88
simulation	ATL	2	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	2	1	5	25	0.00	0.00	0.63
simulation	ATL	3	Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	3	11	0.00	0.50	0.94
simulation	ATL	4	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	0.87	0.44
simulation	ATL	5	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	0.1	2	2	2	2	1	7	25	54.00	3.50	1.33
simulation	ATL	6	Aaron Bummer	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	4	15	0.00	4.85	1.54

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHC	Ben Brown	Starter	4.1	1	4	2	5	21	87
CHC	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
CHC	Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	1.1	7	7	2	0	12	44
CHC	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	1	4	15
ATL	Chris Sale	Starter	3.1	1	2	4	3	18	81
ATL	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	2	1	5	25
ATL	Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	11
ATL	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	16
ATL	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	0.1	2	2	2	1	7	25
ATL	Aaron Bummer	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	0	1	4	15

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	warning	1	0	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260514_COL@PIT

20260514_COL@PIT.json • 2026-05-14

COL 4 - PIT 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 90INFO 9

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=8, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=3; ER: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=12, sim=10).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=1, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jordan Beck: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Willi Castro: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Hunter Goodman: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; TJ Rumfield: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Mickey Moniak: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brenton Doyle: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=3; Edouard Julien: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Tovar: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=4; ER: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=14, sim=12).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=6, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Endy Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Ryan O'Hearn: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Konnor Griffin: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jared Triolo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Oneil Cruz: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Spencer Horwitz: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match PIT pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match PIT pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=34 matches PIT BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match COL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match COL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match COL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=36 matches COL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.8.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.420/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: COL 6, PIT 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: COL 4 - PIT 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: COL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for COL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick guardrail flipped the lean after a blowout miss and opponent breakout'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'PIT'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.622845, 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 6, 'path': '20260513_COL@PIT.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.6033, 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260512_COL@PIT.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PIT', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'COL', 'output_opponent_team': 'PIT', 'final_score_winner': 'COL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'COL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'COL 4 - 3 PIT', 'winner': 'COL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'COL 4 - 3 PIT', 'winner': 'COL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_COL@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@PIT.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 4 - 3 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 4 - 3 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: COL wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=COL, final=COL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: COL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: COL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: COL wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 8/43 = 0.186.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 12/43 = 0.279.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match PIT pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match PIT pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=34 matches PIT BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match COL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match COL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match COL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=36 matches COL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.8.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.420/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: COL 6, PIT 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: COL 4 - PIT 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: COL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for COL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick guardrail flipped the lean after a blowout miss and opponent breakout'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'PIT'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.622845, 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 6, 'path': '20260513_COL@PIT.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.6033, 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260512_COL@PIT.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'PIT', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'COL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'COL', 'output_opponent_team': 'PIT', 'final_score_winner': 'COL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'COL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'COL 4 - 3 PIT', 'winner': 'COL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'COL 4 - 3 PIT', 'winner': 'COL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_COL@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@PIT.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 4 - 3 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 4 - 3 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: COL wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=COL, final=COL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: COL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: COL wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: COL wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 8/43 = 0.186.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 12/43 = 0.279.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=8, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=3; ER: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=12, sim=10).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=1, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jordan Beck: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Willi Castro: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Hunter Goodman: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; TJ Rumfield: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Mickey Moniak: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brenton Doyle: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=3; Edouard Julien: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Tovar: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=4; ER: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=14, sim=12).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=6, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Endy Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1; Ryan O'Hearn: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Konnor Griffin: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jared Triolo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Oneil Cruz: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Spencer Horwitz: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.382678985595703	4.907494068145752		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	0	4	6
PIT	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	COL	batting	35	8	0	0	0	1	3	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	COL	pitching		8			2		4	1	12					10.0	4	0	0
current	PIT	batting	35	9	0	0	0	6	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	PIT	pitching		7			2		5	1	14					10.0	5	0	0
simulation	COL	batting	33	6	1	0	2	4	4	1	12	0	0
simulation	COL	pitching		7			2		3	1	10					9.0	3	36	141
simulation	PIT	batting	33	7	1	0	2	3	3	1	10	1	1
simulation	PIT	pitching		6			2		4	1	12					9.0	4	34	147

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	COL		LF	Jordan Beck	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		3B	Willi Castro	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		C	Hunter Goodman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		1B	TJ Rumfield	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		DH	Mickey Moniak	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		CF	Brenton Doyle	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	COL		2B	Edouard Julien	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	COL		SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		RF	Troy Johnston	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		C	Endy Rodríguez	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		RF	Ryan O'Hearn	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		SS	Konnor Griffin	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		3B	Jared Triolo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		DH	Marcell Ozuna	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		CF	Oneil Cruz	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		LF	Bryan Reynolds	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		1B	Spencer Horwitz	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.333
current	PIT		2B	Brandon Lowe	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	COL	1	LF	Jordan Beck	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	COL	2	CF	Brenton Doyle	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	COL	3	C	Hunter Goodman	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	COL	4	1B	TJ Rumfield	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	COL	5	3B	Willi Castro	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	COL	6	DH	Mickey Moniak	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	COL	7	RF	Troy Johnston	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	COL	8	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	COL	9	2B	Edouard Julien	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	1	CF	Oneil Cruz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	2	2B	Brandon Lowe	4	4	3	1	2	1	2	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	PIT	3	LF	Bryan Reynolds	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	4	RF	Ryan O'Hearn	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	5	SS	Konnor Griffin	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	6	1B	Spencer Horwitz	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	7	DH	Marcell Ozuna	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	8	C	Endy Rodríguez	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	9	3B	Jared Triolo	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	COL	1	Chase Dollander	Starter	4.1	7	2	2	0	5	2	0	0	4.15	3.35	1.19
current	COL	2	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.32	0.77
current	COL	3	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.60	1.60
current	COL	4	Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	9.00	3.38	1.19
current	COL	5	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	6.61	1.96
current	COL	6	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.66	1.60
current	PIT	1	Mason Montgomery	Starter	4.1	3	2	2	0	5	1	0	0	4.15	2.87	1.28
current	PIT	2	Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.63	1.33
current	PIT	3	Evan Sisk	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.65	1.04
current	PIT	4	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.69	0.70
current	PIT	5	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	9.00	4.12	1.33
current	PIT	6	Isaac Mattson	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	2	2	0	2	1	0	0	27.00	4.67	1.56
simulation	COL	1	Chase Dollander	Starter	4.1	7	2	2	0	5	2	22	81	4.15	3.35	1.19
simulation	COL	2	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	1	0	3	12	9.00	6.61	1.96
simulation	COL	3	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	1.32	0.77
simulation	COL	4	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	19	0.00	4.66	1.60
simulation	COL	5	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.60	1.60
simulation	PIT	1	Mason Montgomery	Starter	4.1	3	2	2	0	5	1	18	70	4.15	2.87	1.28
simulation	PIT	2	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	23	0.00	1.69	0.70
simulation	PIT	3	Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	18	0.00	3.63	1.33
simulation	PIT	4	Isaac Mattson	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	2	2	0	2	1	5	23	27.00	4.67	1.56
simulation	PIT	5	Evan Sisk	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	1.65	1.04

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
COL	Chase Dollander	Starter	4.1	2	7	0	5	22	81
COL	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	12
COL	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	4	16
COL	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	1	2	4	19
COL	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	3	13
PIT	Mason Montgomery	Starter	4.1	2	3	0	5	18	70
PIT	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	23
PIT	Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	0	2	4	18
PIT	Isaac Mattson	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	2	0	2	5	23
PIT	Evan Sisk	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260514_DET@NYM

20260514_DET@NYM.json • 2026-05-14

DET 2 - NYM 3

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 89INFO 9

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Prediction target vs final simulation drift The inning simulation can vary from ML target, but large drift should be reviewed or explicitly documented as acceptable variance.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Final total runs 5 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 9.8 by more than 4.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	enhanced_prediction				LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 9.8 by more than 4.

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 9.8 by more than 4.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (SO: current=9, sim=7).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dillon Dingler: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Colt Keith: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=3, H current=2 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Wenceel Pérez: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Gage Workman: 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Zach McKinstry: H current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Spencer Torkelson: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (SO: current=8, sim=5).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=7; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Hayden Senger: RBI current=1 box=0; Brett Baty: H current=1 box=2, R current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; A.J. Ewing: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=2 box=1; Mark Vientos: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Juan Soto: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; MJ Melendez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Marcus Semien: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match NYM pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=35 matches NYM BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match DET pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match DET pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match DET pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=38 matches DET BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.461.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.420/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 6, NYM 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 2 - NYM 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYM; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'NYM'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'confidence': 0.610851, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260513_DET@NYM.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'confidence': 0.54675, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 8, 'path': '20260512_DET@NYM.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYM', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'DET', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'output_opponent_team': 'DET', 'final_score_winner': 'NYM', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'DET 2 - 3 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'DET 2 - 3 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_DET@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@NYM.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 138.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 138.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 2 - 3 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 2 - 3 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 3-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYM, final=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.539.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYM wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 2-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-3, final 2-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 3-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 13/43 = 0.302.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 16/42 = 0.381.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match NYM pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=35 matches NYM BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match DET pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match DET pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match DET pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=38 matches DET BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.461.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.420/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 6, NYM 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 2 - NYM 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYM; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': 9, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'NYM'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'confidence': 0.610851, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260513_DET@NYM.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'confidence': 0.54675, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 8, 'path': '20260512_DET@NYM.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'NYM', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'DET', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'output_opponent_team': 'DET', 'final_score_winner': 'NYM', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'DET 2 - 3 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'DET 2 - 3 NYM', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_DET@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@NYM.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 138.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 138.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 2 - 3 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 2 - 3 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 3-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYM, final=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.539.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYM wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 2-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-3, final 2-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 3-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 13/43 = 0.302.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 16/42 = 0.381.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (SO: current=9, sim=7).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=1, sim=0; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Dillon Dingler: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Colt Keith: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: AB current=4 box=3, H current=2 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Wenceel Pérez: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Gage Workman: 2B current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Zach McKinstry: H current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Spencer Torkelson: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (SO: current=8, sim=5).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=7; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Hayden Senger: RBI current=1 box=0; Brett Baty: H current=1 box=2, R current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; A.J. Ewing: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=2 box=1; Mark Vientos: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Juan Soto: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; MJ Melendez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Marcus Semien: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	2.915055751800537	2.809269428253174		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	3		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	2	3	0.539	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	2	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	6
NYM	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	DET	batting	34	9	1	0	0	0	2	3	10	0	0	0	0
current	DET	pitching		7			1		3	4	9					9.1	3	0	0
current	NYM	batting	34	9	0	0	0	3	2	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	NYM	pitching		6			1		2	2	8					10.1	2	0	0
simulation	DET	batting	33	6	0	0	1	2	2	2	5	0	0
simulation	DET	pitching		7			1		3	4	7					8.2	3	38	157
simulation	NYM	batting	32	7	0	0	1	3	3	4	7	1	1
simulation	NYM	pitching		6			1		2	2	5					9.0	2	35	138

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	DET		DH	Dillon Dingler	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		3B	Colt Keith	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		LF	Riley Greene	0	4	2	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.500
current	DET		SS	Kevin McGonigle	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	DET		CF	Wenceel Pérez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		2B	Gage Workman	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		RF	Zach McKinstry	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	DET		1B	Spencer Torkelson	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.250
current	DET		C	Jake Rogers	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		C	Hayden Senger	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		3B	Brett Baty	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		RF	Carson Benge	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		CF	A.J. Ewing	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		1B	Mark Vientos	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		DH	Juan Soto	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		LF	MJ Melendez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		2B	Marcus Semien	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		SS	Bo Bichette	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	DET	1	SS	Kevin McGonigle	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	DET	2	3B	Colt Keith	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	DET	3	LF	Riley Greene	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	DET	4	DH	Dillon Dingler	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	DET	5	2B	Gage Workman	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	DET	6	RF	Zach McKinstry	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	DET	7	1B	Spencer Torkelson	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	DET	8	CF	Wenceel Pérez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	DET	9	C	Jake Rogers	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	NYM	1	RF	Carson Benge	5	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	2	SS	Bo Bichette	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	NYM	3	DH	Juan Soto	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	4	1B	Mark Vientos	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	5	LF	MJ Melendez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	6	3B	Brett Baty	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	NYM	7	2B	Marcus Semien	4	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	NYM	8	CF	A.J. Ewing	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.000
simulation	NYM	9	C	Hayden Senger	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	DET	1	Keider Montero	Starter	5.2	2	1	1	2	4	1	0	0	1.59	3.18	0.96
current	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.61	1.06
current	DET	3	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.44	1.26
current	DET	4	Brant Hurter	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.66	0.83
current	DET	5	Burch Smith	Middle Reliever	0.2	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	27.00	3.75	1.58
current	NYM	1	Nolan McLean	Starter	4.2	6	2	2	2	4	1	0	0	3.86	2.78	0.90
current	NYM	2	Austin Warren	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	0.82	1.09
current	NYM	3	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.06	0.94
current	NYM	4	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.95	1.32
current	NYM	5	Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.14	0.95
current	NYM	6	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.15	1.21
simulation	DET	1	Keider Montero	Starter	5.2	2	1	1	2	4	1	23	90	1.59	3.18	0.96
simulation	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	0	0	1	1	0	6	26	0.00	2.61	1.06
simulation	DET	3	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	0.44	1.26
simulation	DET	4	Burch Smith	Middle Reliever	0.2	3	2	2	1	1	0	6	28	27.00	3.75	1.58
simulation	NYM	1	Nolan McLean	Starter	4.2	6	2	2	2	4	1	23	98	3.86	2.78	0.90
simulation	NYM	2	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	10	0.00	3.95	1.32
simulation	NYM	3	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	12	0.00	4.15	1.21
simulation	NYM	4	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	10	0.00	1.06	0.94
simulation	NYM	5	Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	8	0.00	2.14	0.95

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
DET	Keider Montero	Starter	5.2	1	2	2	4	23	90
DET	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	2	1	1	6	26
DET	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
DET	Burch Smith	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	3	1	1	6	28
NYM	Nolan McLean	Starter	4.2	2	6	2	4	23	98
NYM	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	10
NYM	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	3	12
NYM	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	10
NYM	Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	8

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	warning	1	2	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260514_KC@CHW

20260514_KC@CHW.json • 2026-05-14

KC 4 - CHW 6

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 92INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Prediction target vs final simulation drift The inning simulation can vary from ML target, but large drift should be reviewed or explicitly documented as acceptable variance.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 5-4, final 4-6 (delta 3).

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 5-4, final 4-6 (delta 3).

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 5-4, final 4-6 (delta 3).
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=6; R: current=3, sim=6; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=9; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randal Grichuk: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Andrew Benintendi: H current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Edgar Quero: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jarred Kelenic: AB current=3 box=4; Derek Hill: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Maikel Garcia: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Starling Marte: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Bobby Witt Jr.: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kyle Isbel: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match KC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=36 matches KC BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match CHW pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match CHW pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match CHW pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=42 matches CHW BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.295/0.689.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 7, CHW 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 4 - CHW 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: KC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for KC; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-04-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'confidence': 0.53316, 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260513_KC@CHW.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260512_KC@CHW.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHW', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'KC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'KC', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'final_score_winner': 'CHW', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'KC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': True}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 5 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 6 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': True, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 2, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_KC@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@CHW.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 186.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 186.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 5 - 4 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 4 - 6 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHW wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation winner reversal is traced: pre=KC, final=CHW.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CHW wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHW wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHW wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 14/42 = 0.333.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 12/43 = 0.279.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match KC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=36 matches KC BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match CHW pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match CHW pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match CHW pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=42 matches CHW BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 10 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.295/0.689.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 7, CHW 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 4 - CHW 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: KC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for KC; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-04-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHW'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'confidence': 0.53316, 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260513_KC@CHW.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260512_KC@CHW.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'CHW', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'KC', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'KC', 'output_opponent_team': 'CHW', 'final_score_winner': 'CHW', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'KC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': True}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'KC 5 - 4 CHW', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'KC 4 - 6 CHW', 'winner': 'CHW'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': True, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 2, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_KC@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@CHW.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 186.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 186.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 5 - 4 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 4 - 6 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHW wins 6-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation winner reversal is traced: pre=KC, final=CHW.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CHW wins 6-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHW wins 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 10.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHW wins 6-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 14/42 = 0.333.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 12/43 = 0.279.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=6; R: current=3, sim=6; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=9; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randal Grichuk: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Munetaka Murakami: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Andrew Benintendi: H current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Edgar Quero: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jarred Kelenic: AB current=3 box=4; Derek Hill: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=6; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Maikel Garcia: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Salvador Perez: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Loftin: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Starling Marte: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Bobby Witt Jr.: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Kyle Isbel: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Vinnie Pasquantino: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.751752853393555	4.641467094421387		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result
simulation_winner_reversal	4	6		Inning simulation reversed the pre-simulation winner; primary prediction fields remain the pre-simulation model target.

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	7
CHW	0	0	4	0	0	0	2	0	0	6	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	KC	batting	31	9	0	0	0	3	2	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		9			1		6	3	9					8.0	6	0	0
current	CHW	batting	32	9	0	0	0	3	3	2	10	0	0	0	0
current	CHW	pitching		7			0		4	6	6					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	KC	batting	34	7	1	0	0	4	4	6	6	0	2
simulation	KC	pitching		9			1		6	3	9					8.0	6	36	155
simulation	CHW	batting	32	9	0	0	1	6	6	3	9	1	0
simulation	CHW	pitching		7			0		4	6	6					9.0	4	42	186

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	KC		3B	Maikel Garcia	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	KC		C	Salvador Perez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		2B	Nick Loftin	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
current	KC		DH	Starling Marte	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		LF	Isaac Collins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		CF	Kyle Isbel	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		RF	Lane Thomas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	CHW		LF	Randal Grichuk	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHW		1B	Munetaka Murakami	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	0.250
current	CHW		DH	Andrew Benintendi	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		3B	Miguel Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		C	Edgar Quero	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		2B	Chase Meidroth	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHW		RF	Jarred Kelenic	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHW		CF	Derek Hill	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHW		SS	Luisangel Acuña	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	KC	1	3B	Maikel Garcia	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	KC	2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	KC	3	RF	Lane Thomas	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	4	C	Salvador Perez	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	KC	5	2B	Nick Loftin	5	5	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	KC	6	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	7	DH	Starling Marte	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.667
simulation	KC	8	LF	Isaac Collins	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	KC	9	CF	Kyle Isbel	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	CHW	1	2B	Chase Meidroth	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	CHW	2	3B	Miguel Vargas	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	CHW	3	1B	Munetaka Murakami	4	3	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	CHW	4	LF	Randal Grichuk	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	CHW	5	C	Edgar Quero	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	CHW	6	DH	Andrew Benintendi	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	7	CF	Derek Hill	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	CHW	8	SS	Luisangel Acuña	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	9	RF	Jarred Kelenic	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	KC	1	Kris Bubic	Starter	3.1	4	4	4	3	5	0	0	0	10.80	3.50	1.17
current	KC	2	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.08	0.75
current	KC	3	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.31	1.41
current	KC	4	Matt Strahm	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.02	1.21
current	KC	5	Nick Mears	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	2	2	0	2	1	0	0	27.00	3.07	1.23
current	CHW	1	Anthony Kay	Starter	4.1	4	2	2	3	3	0	0	0	4.15	4.89	1.57
current	CHW	2	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	6.75	7.71	1.71
current	CHW	3	Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	6.75	13.50	3.00
current	CHW	4	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.54	1.63
current	CHW	5	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.42	1.26
simulation	KC	1	Kris Bubic	Starter	3.1	4	4	4	3	5	0	19	86	10.80	3.50	1.17
simulation	KC	2	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	12	0.00	3.31	1.41
simulation	KC	3	Matt Strahm	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	4.02	1.21
simulation	KC	4	Nick Mears	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	2	2	0	2	1	5	23	27.00	3.07	1.23
simulation	KC	5	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	17	0.00	2.08	0.75
simulation	CHW	1	Anthony Kay	Starter	4.1	4	2	2	3	3	0	22	96	4.15	4.89	1.57
simulation	CHW	2	Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	0	1	0	3	11	6.75	13.50	3.00
simulation	CHW	3	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	21	0.00	1.42	1.26
simulation	CHW	4	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	1	1	0	5	26	6.75	7.71	1.71
simulation	CHW	5	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	1	0	0	7	32	0.00	1.54	1.63

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
KC	Kris Bubic	Starter	3.1	4	4	3	5	19	86
KC	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	12
KC	Matt Strahm	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	1	4	17
KC	Nick Mears	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	2	0	2	5	23
KC	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	2	0	0	5	17
CHW	Anthony Kay	Starter	4.1	2	4	3	3	22	96
CHW	Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	3	11
CHW	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	21
CHW	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	1	1	5	26
CHW	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	1	0	7	32

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	warning	1	0	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260514_MIA@MIN

20260514_MIA@MIN.json • 2026-05-14

MIA 5 - MIN 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 90INFO 9

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=7; R: current=6, sim=4; ER: current=6, sim=4; SO: current=14, sim=12).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: BB current=0 box=1; Leo Jiménez: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Owen Caissie: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Xavier Edwards: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Otto Lopez: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Javier Sanoja: AB current=4 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1; Christopher Morel: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=11, sim=10; R: current=6, sim=5; ER: current=6, sim=5; SO: current=11, sim=9).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=4; R: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Victor Caratini: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Royce Lewis: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Brooks Lee: H current=1 box=0; James Outman: SO current=1 box=2; Byron Buxton: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan Jeffers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ryan Kreidler: R current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match MIN pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match MIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match MIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=44 matches MIN BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match MIA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match MIA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match MIA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=36 matches MIA BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIA 10, MIN 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIA 5 - MIN 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIA; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.512854, 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260513_MIA@MIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260512_MIA@MIN.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIN', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'final_score_winner': 'MIA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIA 6 - 3 MIN', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIA 5 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_MIA@MIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIA@MIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 201.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 201.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 13.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 14.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIA 6 - 3 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIA 5 - 4 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIA, final=MIA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-3, final 5-4 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 13/43 = 0.302.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 8/43 = 0.186.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match MIN pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match MIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match MIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=44 matches MIN BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match MIA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match MIA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match MIA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=36 matches MIA BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIA 10, MIN 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIA 5 - MIN 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIA; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': -1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.512854, 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260513_MIA@MIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260512_MIA@MIN.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIN', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'MIA', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIN', 'final_score_winner': 'MIA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'MIA 6 - 3 MIN', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIA 5 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_MIA@MIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIA@MIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 201.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 201.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 13.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 14.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIA 6 - 3 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIA 5 - 4 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIA, final=MIA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-3, final 5-4 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIA wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 13/43 = 0.302.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 8/43 = 0.186.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=7; R: current=6, sim=4; ER: current=6, sim=4; SO: current=14, sim=12).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Stowers: BB current=0 box=1; Leo Jiménez: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Owen Caissie: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Xavier Edwards: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Otto Lopez: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Javier Sanoja: AB current=4 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1; Christopher Morel: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=11, sim=10; R: current=6, sim=5; ER: current=6, sim=5; SO: current=11, sim=9).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=4; R: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Victor Caratini: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Royce Lewis: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Brooks Lee: H current=1 box=0; James Outman: SO current=1 box=2; Byron Buxton: RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan Jeffers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ryan Kreidler: R current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.634051322937012	4.753437519073486		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	6	3	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	6	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	0	0	5	10
MIN	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIA	batting	33	8	0	0	0	4	3	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIA	pitching		9			2		6	2	14					13.2	6	0	0
current	MIN	batting	33	7	0	0	1	2	2	4	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIN	pitching		11			1		6	6	11					14.2	6	0	0
simulation	MIA	batting	37	10	0	0	1	5	5	6	9	0	1
simulation	MIA	pitching		7			2		4	2	12					9.0	4	36	151
simulation	MIN	batting	34	7	1	0	2	4	4	2	12	0	0
simulation	MIN	pitching		10			1		5	6	9					9.0	5	44	201

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	MIA		LF	Kyle Stowers	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		DH	Leo Jiménez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		RF	Owen Caissie	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.000
current	MIA		2B	Xavier Edwards	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		SS	Otto Lopez	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		3B	Javier Sanoja	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		C	Liam Hicks	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	MIA		1B	Christopher Morel	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		CF	Jakob Marsee	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		2B	Luke Keaschall	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		1B	Victor Caratini	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	MIN		3B	Royce Lewis	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	MIN		SS	Brooks Lee	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		LF	James Outman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		DH	Byron Buxton	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		C	Ryan Jeffers	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		CF	Ryan Kreidler	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		RF	Austin Martin	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	1	2B	Xavier Edwards	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	2	C	Liam Hicks	5	5	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	MIA	3	SS	Otto Lopez	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	4	LF	Kyle Stowers	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	5	1B	Christopher Morel	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	6	CF	Jakob Marsee	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIA	7	DH	Leo Jiménez	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	MIA	8	RF	Owen Caissie	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	3	0	0.200
simulation	MIA	9	3B	Javier Sanoja	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	MIN	1	DH	Byron Buxton	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	2	RF	Austin Martin	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	3	C	Ryan Jeffers	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	4	1B	Victor Caratini	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	5	2B	Luke Keaschall	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	6	SS	Brooks Lee	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	7	3B	Royce Lewis	4	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	MIN	8	CF	Ryan Kreidler	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	9	LF	James Outman	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIA	1	Braxton Garrett	Starter	3.2	4	2	2	1	7	1	0	0	4.91
current	MIA	2	Sandy Alcantara	Starter	4.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2.25	3.90	1.27
current	MIA	3	Tyler Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.08	1.24
current	MIA	4	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	13.50	3.38	1.44
current	MIA	5	John King	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.02	0.57
current	MIA	6	Anthony Bender	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.30	1.30
current	MIA	7	Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	13.50	4.80	1.20
current	MIN	1	Zebby Matthews	Starter	3.2	5	3	3	2	4	1	0	0	7.36
current	MIN	2	Joe Ryan	Starter	4.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.43	1.03
current	MIN	3	Justin Topa	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	6.75	1.77
current	MIN	4	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	6.75	4.67	1.44
current	MIN	5	Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.76	1.41
current	MIN	6	Luis García	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	6.43	1.57
current	MIN	7	Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	2	2	3	0	0	0	0	27.00	4.26	1.47
simulation	MIA	1	Braxton Garrett	Starter	3.2	4	2	2	1	7	1	20	89	4.91
simulation	MIA	2	Tyler Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	17	0.00	1.08	1.24
simulation	MIA	3	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	1	5	18	13.50	3.38	1.44
simulation	MIA	4	John King	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	15	0.00	1.02	0.57
simulation	MIA	5	Anthony Bender	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	12	0.00	4.30	1.30
simulation	MIN	1	Zebby Matthews	Starter	3.2	5	3	3	2	4	1	22	96	7.36
simulation	MIN	2	Justin Topa	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	20	0.00	6.75	1.77
simulation	MIN	3	Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	2	2	3	0	0	7	30	27.00	4.26	1.47
simulation	MIN	4	Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	29	0.00	2.76	1.41
simulation	MIN	5	Luis García	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	0	0	0	2	0	6	26	0.00	6.43	1.57

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIA	Braxton Garrett	Starter	3.2	2	4	1	7	20	89
MIA	Tyler Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	1	2	4	17
MIA	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	0	1	5	18
MIA	John King	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	2	3	15
MIA	Anthony Bender	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	12
MIN	Zebby Matthews	Starter	3.2	3	5	2	4	22	96
MIN	Justin Topa	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	2	4	20
MIN	Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	1	3	0	7	30
MIN	Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	1	5	29
MIN	Luis García	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	3	0	2	6	26

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260514_PHI@BOS

20260514_PHI@BOS.json • 2026-05-14

PHI 3 - BOS 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 92INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=6; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=4; R: current=1, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Caleb Durbin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Andruw Monasterio: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Trevor Story: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Wilyer Abreu: BB current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Carlos Narváez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Willson Contreras: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=13; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Felix Reyes: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Bryce Harper: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Alec Bohm: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Adolis García: AB current=4 box=5; Edmundo Sosa: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Marsh: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Trea Turner: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match PHI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match PHI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match PHI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=37 matches PHI BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match BOS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match BOS pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=40 matches BOS BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.461.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.295/0.689.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PHI 10, BOS 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PHI 3 - BOS 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.56, reasons=a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'opponent_team': 'PHI', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'PHI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.5128539999999999, 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260513_PHI@BOS.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260512_PHI@BOS.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BOS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'output_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 3 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 3 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_PHI@BOS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PHI@BOS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 161.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 161.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 3 - 4 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PHI 3 - 4 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=BOS, final=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.539.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 10/42 = 0.238.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 8/43 = 0.186.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match PHI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match PHI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match PHI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=37 matches PHI BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match BOS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match BOS pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=40 matches BOS BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.461.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.295/0.689.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PHI 10, BOS 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PHI 3 - BOS 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.56, reasons=a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'opponent_team': 'PHI', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'PHI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.5128539999999999, 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260513_PHI@BOS.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260512_PHI@BOS.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'BOS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'output_opponent_team': 'PHI', 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 3 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 3 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_PHI@BOS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PHI@BOS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 161.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 161.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 3 - 4 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PHI 3 - 4 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=BOS, final=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.539.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 10/42 = 0.238.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 8/43 = 0.186.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=6; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=4; R: current=1, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=7; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Caleb Durbin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Andruw Monasterio: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Trevor Story: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Wilyer Abreu: BB current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Carlos Narváez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Willson Contreras: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=13; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Felix Reyes: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Bryce Harper: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1; Alec Bohm: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Adolis García: AB current=4 box=5; Edmundo Sosa: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Brandon Marsh: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Trea Turner: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	2.5576653480529785	4.756166934967041		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.539	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	10
BOS	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	4	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	PHI	batting	35	8	0	0	1	3	3	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	PHI	pitching		6			2		4	3	7					8.2	4	0	0
current	BOS	batting	33	8	0	0	0	2	1	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	BOS	pitching		10			1		3	2	13					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	PHI	batting	37	10	2	0	1	3	3	2	13	0	1
simulation	PHI	pitching		6			2		4	3	7					8.2	4	37	161
simulation	BOS	batting	32	6	0	0	2	4	4	3	7	0	2
simulation	BOS	pitching		10			1		3	2	13					9.0	3	40	153

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	PHI		DH	Kyle Schwarber	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		LF	Felix Reyes	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	PHI		1B	Bryce Harper	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		3B	Alec Bohm	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		RF	Adolis García	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		2B	Edmundo Sosa	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		CF	Brandon Marsh	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		SS	Trea Turner	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		C	J.T. Realmuto	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		3B	Caleb Durbin	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	BOS		DH	Andruw Monasterio	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		SS	Trevor Story	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		RF	Wilyer Abreu	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		LF	Jarren Duran	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		C	Carlos Narváez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		2B	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	BOS		1B	Willson Contreras	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	1	SS	Trea Turner	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	2	DH	Kyle Schwarber	5	5	3	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.600
simulation	PHI	3	1B	Bryce Harper	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	1	0.250
simulation	PHI	4	RF	Adolis García	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	PHI	5	3B	Alec Bohm	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	PHI	6	CF	Brandon Marsh	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	PHI	7	C	J.T. Realmuto	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	8	LF	Felix Reyes	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	9	2B	Edmundo Sosa	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	1	LF	Jarren Duran	5	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	1	0.250
simulation	BOS	2	DH	Andruw Monasterio	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	3	RF	Wilyer Abreu	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	4	1B	Willson Contreras	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	5	CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	1	1.000
simulation	BOS	6	SS	Trevor Story	4	3	2	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	BOS	7	C	Carlos Narváez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	8	3B	Caleb Durbin	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	9	2B	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	PHI	1	Jesús Luzardo	Starter	4.2	3	2	2	3	4	0	0	0	3.86	5.98	1.40
current	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	1.69	1.12
current	PHI	3	Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.08	1.25
current	PHI	4	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	5.14	1.86
current	PHI	5	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	13.50	2.35	1.17
current	BOS	1	Ranger Suarez	Starter	4.1	5	1	1	2	7	1	0	0	2.08	2.77	0.95
current	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	0.66	0.88
current	BOS	3	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.94
current	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	18.00	3.31	1.16
current	BOS	5	Tyler Samaniego	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1.00
simulation	PHI	1	Jesús Luzardo	Starter	4.2	3	2	2	3	4	0	22	98	3.86	5.98	1.40
simulation	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	0	0	0	0	1	5	18	0.00	1.69	1.12
simulation	PHI	3	Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	15	0.00	4.08	1.25
simulation	PHI	4	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	1	0	4	16	9.00	5.14	1.86
simulation	PHI	5	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	1	3	14	13.50	2.35	1.17
simulation	BOS	1	Ranger Suarez	Starter	4.1	5	1	1	2	7	1	22	84	2.08	2.77	0.95
simulation	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	0.66	0.88
simulation	BOS	3	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	0	6	22	18.00	3.31	1.16
simulation	BOS	4	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	19	0.00	0.00	0.94
simulation	BOS	5	Tyler Samaniego	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	11	0.00	0.00	1.00

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
PHI	Jesús Luzardo	Starter	4.2	2	3	3	4	22	98
PHI	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	2	0	0	5	18
PHI	Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	15
PHI	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	4	16
PHI	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	0	0	3	14
BOS	Ranger Suarez	Starter	4.1	1	5	2	7	22	84
BOS	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	2	4	17
BOS	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	3	0	1	6	22
BOS	Justin Slaten	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	2	4	19
BOS	Tyler Samaniego	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	4	11

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260514_SD@MIL

20260514_SD@MIL.json • 2026-05-14

SD 5 - MIL 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 91INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=3; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sal Frelick: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; William Contreras: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Rengifo: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Andrew Vaughn: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Jackson Chourio: SO current=1 box=0; Gary Sánchez: R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=3; ER: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=5, sim=3).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=5; R: current=1, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=9, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gavin Sheets: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Miguel Andujar: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Freddy Fermin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3; Ramón Laureano: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Nick Castellanos: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match SD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match SD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=36 matches SD BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match MIL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match MIL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match MIL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=39 matches MIL BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.2.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.318/0.736.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SD 11, MIL 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SD 5 - MIL 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'confidence': 0.622845, 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260513_SD@MIL.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'confidence': 0.68, 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260512_SD@MIL.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 3 MIL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'SD 5 - 3 MIL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_SD@MIL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SD@MIL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 4 - 3 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SD 5 - 3 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=SD, final=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SD wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 5-3 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 15/40 = 0.375.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 9/42 = 0.214.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match SD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match SD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=36 matches SD BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match MIL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match MIL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match MIL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=39 matches MIL BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.2.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.318/0.736.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SD 11, MIL 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SD 5 - MIL 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SD; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'confidence': 0.622845, 'actual_winner': 'SD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260513_SD@MIL.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'confidence': 0.68, 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260512_SD@MIL.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'MIL', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'SD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'output_opponent_team': 'MIL', 'final_score_winner': 'SD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'SD 4 - 3 MIL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'SD 5 - 3 MIL', 'winner': 'SD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_SD@MIL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SD@MIL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SD 4 - 3 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SD 5 - 3 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SD wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=SD, final=SD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SD wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SD wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 5-3 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SD wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 15/40 = 0.375.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 9/42 = 0.214.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=3; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Sal Frelick: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; William Contreras: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Rengifo: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Andrew Vaughn: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Jackson Chourio: SO current=1 box=0; Gary Sánchez: R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=3; ER: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=5, sim=3).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=5; R: current=1, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=0; SO: current=9, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Gavin Sheets: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Miguel Andujar: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Freddy Fermin: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3; Ramón Laureano: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Nick Castellanos: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: SO current=1 box=2, HBP current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.59919548034668	4.454225540161133		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	0	5	11
MIL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SD	batting	33	9	0	0	1	1	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	SD	pitching		7				4	3	5					10.0	4	0	0
current	MIL	batting	34	9	0	0	3	5	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIL	pitching		11				5	0	10					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	SD	batting	38	11	3	1	5	5	0	10	0	1
simulation	SD	pitching		6				3	3	3					9.0	3	36	145
simulation	MIL	batting	32	6	1	1	3	3	3	3	1	0
simulation	MIL	pitching		11				5	0	10					9.0	5	39	170

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	SD		1B	Gavin Sheets	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		DH	Miguel Andujar	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		C	Freddy Fermin	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SD		SS	Xander Bogaerts	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		LF	Ramón Laureano	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	SD		RF	Nick Castellanos	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		2B	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		3B	Manny Machado	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		CF	Bryce Johnson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		RF	Sal Frelick	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		DH	William Contreras	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		3B	Luis Rengifo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	MIL		1B	Andrew Vaughn	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		2B	Brice Turang	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		CF	Garrett Mitchell	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	0.250
current	MIL		LF	Jackson Chourio	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		C	Gary Sánchez	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		SS	David Hamilton	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	SD	1	SS	Xander Bogaerts	5	5	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.600
simulation	SD	2	2B	Fernando Tatis Jr.	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	3	3B	Manny Machado	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.250
simulation	SD	4	DH	Miguel Andujar	4	4	1	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SD	5	1B	Gavin Sheets	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	SD	6	LF	Ramón Laureano	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SD	7	RF	Nick Castellanos	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	SD	8	C	Freddy Fermin	4	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	SD	9	CF	Bryce Johnson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	1	LF	Jackson Chourio	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	2	2B	Brice Turang	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	MIL	3	DH	William Contreras	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	4	C	Gary Sánchez	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIL	5	1B	Andrew Vaughn	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	6	3B	Luis Rengifo	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	MIL	7	CF	Garrett Mitchell	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	8	RF	Sal Frelick	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	9	SS	David Hamilton	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SD	1	Griffin Canning	Starter	3.2	3	2	2	3	2	0	0	4.91	6.75	1.61
current	SD	2	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.92	0.66
current	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5.57	1.29
current	SD	4	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	9.00	1.74	0.97
current	SD	5	Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.38	0.85
current	SD	6	Jeremiah Estrada	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	9.00	3.55	1.03
current	MIL	1	Kyle Harrison	Starter	3.2	5	1	1	0	5	0	0	2.45	2.41	1.22
current	MIL	2	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	4.96	1.16
current	MIL	3	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.1	4	4	4	0	2	0	0	27.00	3.60	1.20
current	MIL	4	DL Hall	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	1.89	1.26
current	MIL	5	Grant Anderson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	3.18	1.06
current	MIL	6	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.00	1.26
simulation	SD	1	Griffin Canning	Starter	3.2	3	2	2	3	2	21	89	4.91	6.75	1.61
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	0.92	0.66
simulation	SD	3	Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	1.38	0.85
simulation	SD	4	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	10	0.00	5.57	1.29
simulation	SD	5	Jeremiah Estrada	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	6	22	9.00	3.55	1.03
simulation	MIL	1	Kyle Harrison	Starter	3.2	5	1	1	0	5	17	80	2.45	2.41	1.22
simulation	MIL	2	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	4	15	0.00	4.96	1.16
simulation	MIL	3	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	2.00	1.26
simulation	MIL	4	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.1	4	4	4	0	2	8	30	27.00	3.60	1.20
simulation	MIL	5	DL Hall	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	4	18	0.00	1.89	1.26
simulation	MIL	6	Grant Anderson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	16	0.00	3.18	1.06

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SD	Griffin Canning	Starter	3.2	2	3	3	2	21	89
SD	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	3	13
SD	Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	11
SD	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	10
SD	Jeremiah Estrada	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	3	0	1	6	22
MIL	Kyle Harrison	Starter	3.2	1	5	0	5	17	80
MIL	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	1	4	15
MIL	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	3	11
MIL	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.1	4	4	0	2	8	30
MIL	DL Hall	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	18
MIL	Grant Anderson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260514_SEA@HOU

20260514_SEA@HOU.json • 2026-05-14

SEA 6 - HOU 2

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 90INFO 8

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Prediction target vs final simulation drift The inning simulation can vary from ML target, but large drift should be reviewed or explicitly documented as acceptable variance.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 5-4, final 6-2 (delta 3).

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 5-4, final 6-2 (delta 3).

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 5-4, final 6-2 (delta 3).
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=0, sim=2; R: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Zach Cole: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=3; César Salazar: H current=1 box=0; Cam Smith: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brice Matthews: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Braden Shewmake: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=6; R: current=3, sim=2; ER: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=11, sim=8).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Young: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Josh Naylor: AB current=4 box=5, R current=0 box=1; Randy Arozarena: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; J.P. Crawford: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Mitch Garver: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Brendan Donovan: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Luke Raley: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match SEA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match SEA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=34 matches SEA BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match HOU pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match HOU pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match HOU pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=42 matches HOU BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.461.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 10, HOU 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 6 - HOU 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SEA; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'opponent_team': 'HOU', 'h2h_net_margin': 14, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-04-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'SEA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'confidence': 0.536922, 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 8, 'path': '20260513_SEA@HOU.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260512_SEA@HOU.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-11', 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260511_SEA@HOU.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SEA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'output_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'final_score_winner': 'SEA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'SEA 6 - 2 HOU', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_SEA@HOU.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@HOU.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 177.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 177.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 5 - 4 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 6 - 2 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=SEA, final=SEA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.539.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SEA wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SEA wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 22/44 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 11/44 = 0.250.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match SEA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match SEA pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match SEA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=34 matches SEA BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match HOU pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match HOU pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match HOU pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=42 matches HOU BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.461.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 10, HOU 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 6 - HOU 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SEA; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'opponent_team': 'HOU', 'h2h_net_margin': 14, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'SEA'}, {'date': '2026-04-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'SEA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'confidence': 0.536922, 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 8, 'path': '20260513_SEA@HOU.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260512_SEA@HOU.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-11', 'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260511_SEA@HOU.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SEA', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'output_opponent_team': 'HOU', 'final_score_winner': 'SEA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 4 HOU', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'SEA 6 - 2 HOU', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_SEA@HOU.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@HOU.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 140.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 177.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 177.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 140.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 5 - 4 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 6 - 2 HOU.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=SEA, final=SEA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.539.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SEA wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SEA wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 22/44 = 0.500.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 11/44 = 0.250.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=0, sim=2; R: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Zach Cole: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=3; César Salazar: H current=1 box=0; Cam Smith: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brice Matthews: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Braden Shewmake: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=6; R: current=3, sim=2; ER: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=11, sim=8).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Young: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Josh Naylor: AB current=4 box=5, R current=0 box=1; Randy Arozarena: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; J.P. Crawford: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Mitch Garver: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Brendan Donovan: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Luke Raley: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.881982326507568	4.13928747177124		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.539	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	0	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6	10
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SEA	batting	33	8	0	0	0	4	4	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	SEA	pitching		7			2		3	1	11					10.1	3	0	0
current	HOU	batting	34	9	0	0	0	0	1	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	HOU	pitching		10			1		6	5	10					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	SEA	batting	36	10	3	0	1	6	6	5	10	1	0
simulation	SEA	pitching		6			2		2	1	8					9.0	2	34	140
simulation	HOU	batting	33	6	0	0	2	2	2	1	8	0	0
simulation	HOU	pitching		10			1		6	5	10					9.0	6	42	177

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	SEA		2B	Cole Young	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	SEA		1B	Josh Naylor	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		LF	Randy Arozarena	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		SS	J.P. Crawford	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	SEA		C	Mitch Garver	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
current	SEA		3B	Brendan Donovan	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		CF	Julio Rodríguez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		RF	Luke Raley	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.333
current	SEA		DH	Dominic Canzone	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	HOU		LF	Zach Cole	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	HOU		2B	Jose Altuve	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		DH	Yordan Alvarez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	HOU		C	César Salazar	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	HOU		RF	Cam Smith	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	HOU		3B	Isaac Paredes	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		1B	Christian Walker	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		CF	Brice Matthews	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		SS	Braden Shewmake	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	SEA	1	3B	Brendan Donovan	5	5	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.400
simulation	SEA	2	CF	Julio Rodríguez	5	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	0.333
simulation	SEA	3	1B	Josh Naylor	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	SEA	4	LF	Randy Arozarena	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	SEA	5	RF	Luke Raley	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.500
simulation	SEA	6	SS	J.P. Crawford	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	SEA	7	DH	Dominic Canzone	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	8	C	Mitch Garver	4	3	2	1	0	1	2	1	0	0.667
simulation	SEA	9	2B	Cole Young	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	HOU	1	LF	Zach Cole	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	2	2B	Jose Altuve	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.500
simulation	HOU	3	DH	Yordan Alvarez	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	HOU	4	3B	Isaac Paredes	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	HOU	5	1B	Christian Walker	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	HOU	6	SS	Braden Shewmake	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	7	CF	Brice Matthews	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	HOU	8	RF	Cam Smith	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	HOU	9	C	César Salazar	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SEA	1	Luis Castillo	Starter	5.1	5	2	2	1	5	1	0	0	3.38	6.57	1.62
current	SEA	2	Cooper Criswell	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.00	0.89
current	SEA	3	Alex Hoppe	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	6.75	6.75	1.35
current	SEA	4	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	5.29	1.35
current	SEA	5	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0.00	2.21	1.23
current	HOU	1	Mike Burrows	Starter	2.2	7	3	3	1	6	0	0	0	10.12	5.04	1.48
current	HOU	2	Bryan King	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.57	1.47
current	HOU	3	AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	5.19	1.50
current	HOU	4	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	8.56	2.20
current	HOU	5	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.79	1.16
current	HOU	6	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	0.2	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	27.00	4.15	1.10
simulation	SEA	1	Luis Castillo	Starter	5.1	5	2	2	1	5	1	24	98	3.38	6.57	1.62
simulation	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	14	0.00	5.29	1.35
simulation	SEA	3	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	1	4	21	0.00	2.21	1.23
simulation	SEA	4	Cooper Criswell	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	7	0.00	2.00	0.89
simulation	HOU	1	Mike Burrows	Starter	2.2	7	3	3	1	6	0	20	82	10.12	5.04	1.48
simulation	HOU	2	Bryan King	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	10	0.00	3.57	1.47
simulation	HOU	3	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	3	11	9.00	8.56	2.20
simulation	HOU	4	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	0.2	3	2	2	1	1	1	7	33	27.00	4.15	1.10
simulation	HOU	5	AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	16	0.00	5.19	1.50
simulation	HOU	6	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	2	0	5	25	0.00	3.79	1.16

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SEA	Luis Castillo	Starter	5.1	2	5	1	5	24	98
SEA	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	14
SEA	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	0	2	4	21
SEA	Cooper Criswell	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	3	7
HOU	Mike Burrows	Starter	2.2	3	7	1	6	20	82
HOU	Bryan King	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	3	10
HOU	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	11
HOU	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	3	1	1	7	33
HOU	AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	1	4	16
HOU	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	2	2	5	25

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	warning	1	0	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260514_SF@LAD

20260514_SF@LAD.json • 2026-05-14

SF 4 - LAD 1

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 90INFO 8

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Prediction target vs final simulation drift The inning simulation can vary from ML target, but large drift should be reviewed or explicitly documented as acceptable variance.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Final total runs 5 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 10.3 by more than 4.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	enhanced_prediction				LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 10.3 by more than 4.

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 10.3 by more than 4.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Tucker: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Freddie Freeman: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Andy Pages: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Hyeseong Kim: H current=1 box=0; Will Smith: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Miguel Rojas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Dalton Rushing: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (SO: current=9, sim=7).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=12).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Casey Schmitt: H current=1 box=2; Willy Adames: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Heliot Ramos: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Jung Hoo Lee: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Luis Arraez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Rafael Devers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Matt Chapman: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Eric Haase: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match SF pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match SF pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match SF pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=34 matches SF BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match LAD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match LAD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=37 matches LAD BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.526.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.526.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.474.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.295/0.689.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 6, LAD 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 4 - LAD 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SF.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SF; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SF', 'opponent_team': 'LAD', 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-04-23', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'SF', 'confidence': 0.5128539999999999, 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260513_SF@LAD.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'confidence': 0.522403, 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 6, 'path': '20260512_SF@LAD.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-11', 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'confidence': 0.517, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260511_SF@LAD.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SF', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SF', 'output_opponent_team': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'SF', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SF', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 3 LAD', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 1 LAD', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_SF@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@LAD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 4 - 3 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 4 - 1 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SF wins 4-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=SF, final=SF.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.526.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SF wins 4-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SF wins 4-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-1 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SF wins 4-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 14/43 = 0.326.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 8/43 = 0.186.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match SF pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match SF pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match SF pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=34 matches SF BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match LAD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match LAD pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match LAD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=37 matches LAD BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.526.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.526.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.474.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.295/0.689.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 6, LAD 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 4 - LAD 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SF.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SF; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SF', 'opponent_team': 'LAD', 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-04-23', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'SF', 'confidence': 0.5128539999999999, 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260513_SF@LAD.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'confidence': 0.522403, 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 6, 'path': '20260512_SF@LAD.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-11', 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'confidence': 0.517, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260511_SF@LAD.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'SF', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'LAD', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'SF', 'output_opponent_team': 'LAD', 'final_score_winner': 'SF', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SF', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 3 LAD', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'SF 4 - 1 LAD', 'winner': 'SF'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_SF@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@LAD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 4 - 3 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 4 - 1 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SF wins 4-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=SF, final=SF.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.526.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SF wins 4-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SF wins 4-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-1 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SF wins 4-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 14/43 = 0.326.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 8/43 = 0.186.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Kyle Tucker: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Freddie Freeman: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Andy Pages: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Hyeseong Kim: H current=1 box=0; Will Smith: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Miguel Rojas: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Dalton Rushing: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (SO: current=9, sim=7).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=12).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Casey Schmitt: H current=1 box=2; Willy Adames: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Heliot Ramos: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Jung Hoo Lee: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Luis Arraez: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Rafael Devers: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Matt Chapman: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Eric Haase: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.990592956542969	4.033748626708984		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.526	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	1		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	4	6
LAD	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SF	batting	35	9	0	0	3	4	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		4				1	2	9					9.2	1	0	0
current	LAD	batting	34	9	0	0	1	3	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		6				4	4	12					9.2	4	0	0
simulation	SF	batting	33	6	3	0	4	4	4	12	0	0
simulation	SF	pitching		4				1	2	7					9.0	1	34	132
simulation	LAD	batting	30	4	2	0	1	1	2	7	1	1
simulation	LAD	pitching		6				4	4	12					9.0	4	37	160

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	SF		DH	Casey Schmitt	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		SS	Willy Adames	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		LF	Heliot Ramos	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		2B	Luis Arraez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	SF		1B	Rafael Devers	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		3B	Matt Chapman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		C	Eric Haase	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		CF	Drew Gilbert	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		CF	Andy Pages	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		3B	Max Muncy	0	3	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAD		2B	Hyeseong Kim	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	LAD		DH	Will Smith	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		SS	Miguel Rojas	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	LAD		C	Dalton Rushing	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SF	1	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	5	5	1	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	SF	2	2B	Luis Arraez	4	4	2	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	SF	3	DH	Casey Schmitt	4	4	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	SF	4	1B	Rafael Devers	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	SF	5	LF	Heliot Ramos	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	SF	6	SS	Willy Adames	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	7	3B	Matt Chapman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	SF	8	CF	Drew Gilbert	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	SF	9	C	Eric Haase	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	1	DH	Will Smith	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	2	1B	Freddie Freeman	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	LAD	3	RF	Kyle Tucker	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	4	CF	Andy Pages	4	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	5	3B	Max Muncy	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	6	LF	Teoscar Hernández	4	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	LAD	7	C	Dalton Rushing	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	8	2B	Hyeseong Kim	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	9	SS	Miguel Rojas	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SF	1	Landen Roupp	Starter	5.1	2	1	1	1	4	0	0	1.69	3.09	1.10
current	SF	2	Joel Peguero	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.69	0.75
current	SF	3	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.00	1.40	1.09
current	SF	4	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	2.45	0.82
current	SF	5	Matt Gage	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.00	1.00	1.06
current	LAD	1	Emmet Sheehan	Starter	4.1	2	0	0	1	4	0	0	0.00	4.79	1.35
current	LAD	2	Kyle Hurt	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.00	0.82	0.64
current	LAD	3	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.00	1.56	0.63
current	LAD	4	Jack Dreyer	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0.00	2.18	0.97
current	LAD	5	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	0.2	3	4	4	2	2	0	0	54.00	3.38	1.05
current	LAD	6	Blake Treinen	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.13	1.18
simulation	SF	1	Landen Roupp	Starter	5.1	2	1	1	1	4	22	83	1.69	3.09	1.10
simulation	SF	2	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	4	20	0.00	1.40	1.09
simulation	SF	3	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	4	16	0.00	2.45	0.82
simulation	SF	4	Joel Peguero	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	0	4	13	0.00	1.69	0.75
simulation	LAD	1	Emmet Sheehan	Starter	4.1	2	0	0	1	4	18	73	0.00	4.79	1.35
simulation	LAD	2	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	4	20	0.00	1.56	0.63
simulation	LAD	3	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	0.2	3	4	4	2	2	8	35	54.00	3.38	1.05
simulation	LAD	4	Kyle Hurt	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	3	11	0.00	0.82	0.64
simulation	LAD	5	Jack Dreyer	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	4	21	0.00	2.18	0.97

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SF	Landen Roupp	Starter	5.1	1	2	1	4	22	83
SF	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	2	4	20
SF	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	0	1	4	16
SF	Joel Peguero	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	1	0	4	13
LAD	Emmet Sheehan	Starter	4.1	0	2	1	4	18	73
LAD	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	2	4	20
LAD	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	0.2	4	3	2	2	8	35
LAD	Kyle Hurt	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	2	3	11
LAD	Jack Dreyer	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	21

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	warning	1	2	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260514_STL@OAK

20260514_STL@OAK.json • 2026-05-14

STL 6 - OAK 2

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 90INFO 9

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=10; SO: current=5, sim=7).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brent Rooker: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Shea Langeliers: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Kurtz: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Carlos Cortes: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Darell Hernaiz: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jeff McNeil: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Tyler Soderstrom: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (SO: current=9, sim=7).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=36; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=6; R: current=2, sim=6; BB: current=1, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: José Fermin: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Yohel Pozo: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Nolan Gorman: BB current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; JJ Wetherholt: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Iván Herrera: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Masyn Winn: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Victor Scott II: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match STL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match STL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match STL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=33 matches STL BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match OAK pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=43 matches OAK BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.2.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.318/0.736.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 10, OAK 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 6 - OAK 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for STL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'STL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'confidence': 0.525958, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260513_STL@OAK.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'confidence': 0.526198, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260512_STL@OAK.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'OAK', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'STL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'STL', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'final_score_winner': 'STL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'STL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 3 OAK', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'STL 6 - 2 OAK', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_STL@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@OAK.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 177.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 177.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 5 - 3 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 6 - 2 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=STL, final=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: STL wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 6-2 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 10/42 = 0.238.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 11/42 = 0.262.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match STL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match STL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match STL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=33 matches STL BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match OAK pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=43 matches OAK BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.2.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.318/0.736.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 10, OAK 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 6 - OAK 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for STL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'latest same-series result flipped a stale matchup lean'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'STL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'confidence': 0.525958, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260513_STL@OAK.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'confidence': 0.526198, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260512_STL@OAK.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'OAK', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'STL', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'STL', 'output_opponent_team': 'OAK', 'final_score_winner': 'STL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'STL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 3 OAK', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'STL 6 - 2 OAK', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_STL@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@OAK.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 177.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 177.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 5 - 3 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 6 - 2 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=STL, final=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: STL wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 6-2 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 10/42 = 0.238.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 11/42 = 0.262.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=10; SO: current=5, sim=7).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brent Rooker: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Shea Langeliers: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Kurtz: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Carlos Cortes: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Darell Hernaiz: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jeff McNeil: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Tyler Soderstrom: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (SO: current=9, sim=7).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=36; H: current=9, sim=10; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=6; R: current=2, sim=6; BB: current=1, sim=6; SO: current=8, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: José Fermin: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Yohel Pozo: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Nolan Gorman: BB current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; JJ Wetherholt: RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Iván Herrera: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Masyn Winn: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Victor Scott II: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.8356738090515137	4.752439498901367		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	3	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	5	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	2	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	6	10
OAK	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	4

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	STL	batting	35	9	0	0	0	3	2	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		4			1		2	2	9					10.1	2	0	0
current	OAK	batting	34	9	0	0	0	4	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		9			2		6	6	5					8.0	6	0	0
simulation	STL	batting	36	10	2	0	2	6	6	6	7	1	0
simulation	STL	pitching		4			1		2	2	7					9.0	2	33	142
simulation	OAK	batting	31	4	1	0	1	2	2	2	7	0	0
simulation	OAK	pitching		10			2		6	6	7					9.0	6	43	177

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	STL		1B	José Fermin	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	STL		DH	Yohel Pozo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	STL		3B	Nolan Gorman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	STL		RF	Jordan Walker	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	STL		2B	JJ Wetherholt	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	STL		C	Iván Herrera	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	STL		SS	Masyn Winn	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	STL		CF	Victor Scott II	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	STL		LF	Nathan Church	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		DH	Brent Rooker	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
current	OAK		C	Shea Langeliers	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		1B	Nick Kurtz	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	OAK		RF	Carlos Cortes	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		SS	Darell Hernaiz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	OAK		2B	Jeff McNeil	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		LF	Tyler Soderstrom	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		3B	Zack Gelof	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		CF	Henry Bolte	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	STL	1	2B	JJ Wetherholt	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	STL	2	C	Iván Herrera	5	3	2	0	1	1	2	2	0	0.667
simulation	STL	3	RF	Jordan Walker	5	5	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.200
simulation	STL	4	SS	Masyn Winn	5	4	3	1	0	1	0	1	0	0.750
simulation	STL	5	3B	Nolan Gorman	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	STL	6	1B	José Fermin	5	5	2	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.400
simulation	STL	7	DH	Yohel Pozo	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	STL	8	LF	Nathan Church	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	STL	9	CF	Victor Scott II	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	OAK	1	1B	Nick Kurtz	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0.000
simulation	OAK	2	C	Shea Langeliers	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	3	LF	Tyler Soderstrom	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	4	DH	Brent Rooker	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	5	RF	Carlos Cortes	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	6	CF	Henry Bolte	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	OAK	7	3B	Zack Gelof	3	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.667
simulation	OAK	8	2B	Jeff McNeil	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	OAK	9	SS	Darell Hernaiz	3	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	STL	1	Michael McGreevy	Starter	4.2	3	1	1	2	5	0	0	0	1.93	2.18	0.86
current	STL	2	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	5.40	3.50	1.22
current	STL	3	Gordon Graceffo	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.99	0.93
current	STL	4	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.70	0.95
current	STL	5	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	6.00	1.78
current	STL	6	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.10	1.08
current	OAK	1	Jacob Lopez	Starter	2.2	7	4	4	1	3	2	0	0	13.50	6.11	1.75
current	OAK	2	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	6.75	2.57	1.67
current	OAK	3	Scott Barlow	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.40	0.67
current	OAK	4	Justin Sterner	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.43	1.43
current	OAK	5	Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.00	8.10	1.80
current	OAK	6	Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.93	1.04
current	OAK	7	Luis Medina	Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
simulation	STL	1	Michael McGreevy	Starter	4.2	3	1	1	2	5	0	20	84	1.93	2.18	0.86
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	2.70	0.95
simulation	STL	3	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	3.10	1.08
simulation	STL	4	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	1	4	23	5.40	3.50	1.22
simulation	STL	5	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	9	0.00	6.00	1.78
simulation	OAK	1	Jacob Lopez	Starter	2.2	7	4	4	1	3	2	17	65	13.50	6.11	1.75
simulation	OAK	2	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	2	0	0	6	28	6.75	2.57	1.67
simulation	OAK	3	Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	2.93	1.04
simulation	OAK	4	Scott Barlow	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	20	0.00	1.40	0.67
simulation	OAK	5	Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	0	5	17	9.00	8.10	1.80
simulation	OAK	6	Justin Sterner	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	19	0.00	4.43	1.43
simulation	OAK	7	Luis Medina	Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	17	0.00	1.72	1.02

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
STL	Michael McGreevy	Starter	4.2	1	3	2	5	20	84
STL	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	11
STL	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	3	15
STL	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	1	0	1	4	23
STL	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	9
OAK	Jacob Lopez	Starter	2.2	4	7	1	3	17	65
OAK	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	2	0	6	28
OAK	Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	3	11
OAK	Scott Barlow	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	1	4	20
OAK	Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	5	17
OAK	Justin Sterner	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	19
OAK	Luis Medina	Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260514_WAS@CIN

20260514_WAS@CIN.json • 2026-05-14

WAS 6 - CIN 1

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Prediction target vs final simulation drift The inning simulation can vary from ML target, but large drift should be reviewed or explicitly documented as acceptable variance.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 4-3, final 6-1 (delta 4).

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 4-3, final 6-1 (delta 4).

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 4-3, final 6-1 (delta 4).
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=13; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Blake Dunn: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Spencer Steer: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; JJ Bleday: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Dane Myers: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0; Matt McLain: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jose Trevino: AB current=3 box=4		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2; Jorbit Vivas: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Brady House: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jacob Young: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Drew Millas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match WAS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match WAS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match WAS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=36 matches WAS BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match CIN pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match CIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=40 matches CIN BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.461.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.8.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.420/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 9, CIN 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 6 - CIN 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: WAS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for WAS; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'WAS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.614726, 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260513_WAS@CIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.68, 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 6, 'path': '20260512_WAS@CIN.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'WAS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'final_score_winner': 'WAS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'WAS 4 - 3 CIN', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'WAS 6 - 1 CIN', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_WAS@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@CIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 4 - 3 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 6 - 1 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: WAS wins 6-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=WAS, final=WAS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.539.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: WAS wins 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: WAS wins 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: WAS wins 6-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 9/43 = 0.209.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 14/43 = 0.326.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match WAS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match WAS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match WAS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=36 matches WAS BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match CIN pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match CIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=40 matches CIN BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.461.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.8.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.420/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 9, CIN 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 6 - CIN 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: WAS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for WAS; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'WAS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-13', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.614726, 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260513_WAS@CIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-12', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.68, 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 6, 'path': '20260512_WAS@CIN.json'}]}, 'guardrail_predicted_team': 'WAS', 'guardrail_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'output_pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'output_opponent_team': 'CIN', 'final_score_winner': 'WAS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'WAS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'WAS 4 - 3 CIN', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'WAS 6 - 1 CIN', 'winner': 'WAS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target', 'simulation_usage': 'advisory_box_score_draw', 'final_prediction_source': 'pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-14.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260514_WAS@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@CIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 4 - 3 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 6 - 1 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: WAS wins 6-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=WAS, final=WAS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.539.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: WAS wins 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: WAS wins 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: WAS wins 6-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 9/43 = 0.209.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 14/43 = 0.326.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=13; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Blake Dunn: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Spencer Steer: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; JJ Bleday: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Dane Myers: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0; Matt McLain: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Jose Trevino: AB current=3 box=4	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=2, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: James Wood: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2; Jorbit Vivas: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Brady House: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Jacob Young: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; CJ Abrams: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Drew Millas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.4	4.2		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.539	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	1		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	0	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	1	6	9
CIN	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	WAS	batting	33	9	0	0	0	4	6	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	WAS	pitching		7			0		1	2	13					10.1	1	0	0
current	CIN	batting	32	9	0	0	0	2	4	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	CIN	pitching		9			2		6	4	10					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	WAS	batting	36	9	3	0	2	6	6	4	10	0	0
simulation	WAS	pitching		7			0		1	2	13					9.0	1	36	162
simulation	CIN	batting	33	7	2	0	0	1	1	2	13	1	0
simulation	CIN	pitching		9			2		6	4	10					9.0	6	40	176

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	WAS		RF	James Wood	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	WAS		1B	Luis García Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		DH	Jorbit Vivas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	WAS		3B	Brady House	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		CF	Jacob Young	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		SS	CJ Abrams	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		C	Drew Millas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	WAS		2B	Nasim Nuñez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	WAS		LF	Daylen Lile	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CIN		RF	Blake Dunn	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	CIN		SS	Elly De La Cruz	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CIN		LF	Spencer Steer	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CIN		DH	JJ Bleday	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.333
current	CIN		CF	Dane Myers	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
current	CIN		1B	Sal Stewart	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CIN		2B	Matt McLain	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CIN		C	Jose Trevino	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CIN		3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	WAS	1	RF	James Wood	5	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.200
simulation	WAS	2	1B	Luis García Jr.	5	5	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.400
simulation	WAS	3	3B	Brady House	5	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.200
simulation	WAS	4	SS	CJ Abrams	5	3	1	1	0	1	1	2	0	0.333
simulation	WAS	5	CF	Jacob Young	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	WAS	6	LF	Daylen Lile	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	WAS	7	2B	Nasim Nuñez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	WAS	8	DH	Jorbit Vivas	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	1	0	0.333
simulation	WAS	9	C	Drew Millas	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	CIN	1	CF	Dane Myers	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	CIN	2	SS	Elly De La Cruz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	CIN	3	1B	Sal Stewart	4	3	2	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.667
simulation	CIN	4	LF	Spencer Steer	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	5	DH	JJ Bleday	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	CIN	6	RF	Blake Dunn	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.333
simulation	CIN	7	2B	Matt McLain	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CIN	8	C	Jose Trevino	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CIN	9	3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	WAS	1	Foster Griffin	Starter	4.1	4	1	1	1	7	0	0	0	2.08	2.12	1.03
current	WAS	2	Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.00	1.67
current	WAS	3	Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.50	1.50
current	WAS	4	PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	3.15	1.40
current	WAS	5	Paxton Schultz	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.30	1.09
current	WAS	6	Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.21	1.14
current	CIN	1	Chase Burns	Starter	3.1	3	3	3	2	4	0	0	0	8.10	2.11	1.04
current	CIN	2	Graham Ashcraft	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	6.75	1.66	1.20
current	CIN	3	Pierce Johnson	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.71	1.29
current	CIN	4	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	2.75	1.42
current	CIN	5	Connor Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.00	4.57	1.57
current	CIN	6	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.71	1.29
simulation	WAS	1	Foster Griffin	Starter	4.1	4	1	1	1	7	0	20	86	2.08	2.12	1.03
simulation	WAS	2	Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	22	0.00	4.50	1.50
simulation	WAS	3	PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	0	0	0	3	0	5	28	0.00	3.15	1.40
simulation	WAS	4	Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	14	0.00	3.21	1.14
simulation	WAS	5	Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	12	0.00	2.00	1.67
simulation	CIN	1	Chase Burns	Starter	3.1	3	3	3	2	4	0	17	75	8.10	2.11	1.04
simulation	CIN	2	Graham Ashcraft	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	2	1	4	14	6.75	1.66	1.20
simulation	CIN	3	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	24	0.00	3.71	1.29
simulation	CIN	4	Pierce Johnson	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	18	0.00	3.71	1.29
simulation	CIN	5	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	1	5	18	9.00	2.75	1.42
simulation	CIN	6	Connor Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	0	6	27	9.00	4.57	1.57

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
WAS	Foster Griffin	Starter	4.1	1	4	1	7	20	86
WAS	Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	1	5	22
WAS	PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	2	0	3	5	28
WAS	Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	2	3	14
WAS	Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	3	12
CIN	Chase Burns	Starter	3.1	3	3	2	4	17	75
CIN	Graham Ashcraft	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	0	2	4	14
CIN	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	24
CIN	Pierce Johnson	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	1	4	18
CIN	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	18
CIN	Connor Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	1	0	6	27

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	warning	1	0	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.