MLB JSON Audit Report

20260510_ATL@LAD

20260510_ATL@LAD.json • 2026-05-10

ATL 3 - LAD 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 93INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Michael Harris II: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Eli White: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Sean Murphy: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Jorge Mateo: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=6; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Andy Pages: RBI current=1 box=2; Kyle Tucker: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Dalton Rushing: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Alex Freeland: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Alex Call: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match LAD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match LAD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=33 matches LAD BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match ATL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=35 matches ATL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.381/0.862.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 4, LAD 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 3 - LAD 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.6, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'confidence': 0.5686273423277379, 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260509_ATL@LAD.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'confidence': 0.5304968761829696, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260508_ATL@LAD.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_ATL@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@LAD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 143.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 143.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 3 - 4 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 3 - 4 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=LAD, final=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 11/40 = 0.275.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 14/39 = 0.359.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match LAD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match LAD pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=33 matches LAD BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match ATL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=35 matches ATL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.381/0.862.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 4, LAD 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 3 - LAD 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: LAD.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.6, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'ATL', 'h2h_net_margin': -2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'LAD'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'confidence': 0.5686273423277379, 'actual_winner': 'LAD', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260509_ATL@LAD.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'confidence': 0.5304968761829696, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260508_ATL@LAD.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'ATL 3 - 4 LAD', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_ATL@LAD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@LAD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 143.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 143.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 3 - 4 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 3 - 4 LAD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=LAD, final=LAD.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 11/40 = 0.275.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 14/39 = 0.359.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=4; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Michael Harris II: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Riley: HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Matt Olson: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Eli White: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Sean Murphy: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Jorge Mateo: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=6; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=4; R: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=2, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shohei Ohtani: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Andy Pages: RBI current=1 box=2; Kyle Tucker: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Max Muncy: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Dalton Rushing: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Alex Freeland: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Alex Call: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4	4		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	4
LAD	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	4	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ATL	batting	34	9	0	0	0	5	4	2	10	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		6			2		4	5	7					8.0	4	0	0
current	LAD	batting	33	9	0	0	0	5	5	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		4			3		3	2	9					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	ATL	batting	31	4	1	0	3	3	3	2	9	0	0
simulation	ATL	pitching		6			2		4	5	7					8.0	4	35	147
simulation	LAD	batting	30	6	0	0	2	4	4	5	7	0	0
simulation	LAD	pitching		4			3		3	2	9					9.0	3	33	143

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	ATL		CF	Michael Harris II	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	ATL		RF	Eli White	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	ATL		DH	Drake Baldwin	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	ATL		C	Sean Murphy	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
current	ATL		SS	Jorge Mateo	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	ATL		LF	Mauricio Dubón	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		DH	Shohei Ohtani	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		CF	Andy Pages	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		3B	Max Muncy	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		C	Dalton Rushing	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAD		2B	Alex Freeland	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAD		LF	Alex Call	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	LAD		SS	Hyeseong Kim	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	ATL	1	LF	Mauricio Dubón	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	ATL	2	DH	Drake Baldwin	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	3	2B	Ozzie Albies	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	ATL	4	1B	Matt Olson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	ATL	5	3B	Austin Riley	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	ATL	6	CF	Michael Harris II	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	7	RF	Eli White	3	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.333
simulation	ATL	8	C	Sean Murphy	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	9	SS	Jorge Mateo	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	LAD	1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	2	1B	Freddie Freeman	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.500
simulation	LAD	3	CF	Andy Pages	4	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	LAD	4	RF	Kyle Tucker	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	5	3B	Max Muncy	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	LAD	6	LF	Alex Call	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	LAD	7	C	Dalton Rushing	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	8	SS	Hyeseong Kim	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	LAD	9	2B	Alex Freeland	3	2	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	1.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ATL	1	Bryce Elder	Starter	4.1	4	2	2	2	3	2	0	0	4.15	2.02	1.02
current	ATL	2	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	0.96	0.48
current	ATL	3	Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	13.50	0.57	0.89
current	ATL	4	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.72
current	LAD	1	Justin Wrobleski	Starter	4.2	4	3	3	0	5	3	0	0	5.79	1.25	1.00
current	LAD	2	Blake Treinen	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.64	1.09
current	LAD	3	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.65	0.61
current	LAD	4	Will Klein	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.87	1.40
current	LAD	5	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.38	0.77
simulation	ATL	1	Bryce Elder	Starter	4.1	4	2	2	2	3	2	21	82	4.15	2.02	1.02
simulation	ATL	2	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	0.00	0.72
simulation	ATL	3	Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	2	2	1	0	7	34	13.50	0.57	0.89
simulation	ATL	4	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	14	0.00	0.96	0.48
simulation	LAD	1	Justin Wrobleski	Starter	4.2	4	3	3	0	5	3	19	79	5.79	1.25	1.00
simulation	LAD	2	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	14	0.00	1.65	0.61
simulation	LAD	3	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	1.38	0.77
simulation	LAD	4	Blake Treinen	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	2	1	0	5	23	0.00	1.64	1.09
simulation	LAD	5	Will Klein	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	14	0.00	2.87	1.40

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ATL	Bryce Elder	Starter	4.1	2	4	2	3	21	82
ATL	Raisel Iglesias	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
ATL	Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	2	1	7	34
ATL	Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	3	3	14
LAD	Justin Wrobleski	Starter	4.2	3	4	0	5	19	79
LAD	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	14
LAD	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	3	13
LAD	Blake Treinen	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	2	1	5	23
LAD	Will Klein	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	14

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260510_CHC@TEX

20260510_CHC@TEX.json • 2026-05-10

CHC 7 - TEX 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 91INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Busch: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Carson Kelly: R current=0 box=1; Matt Shaw: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Dansby Swanson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (SO: current=4, sim=2).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=1, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alejandro Osuna: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Joc Pederson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=4; Justin Foscue: AB current=3 box=4; Corey Seager: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Nimmo: H current=1 box=0; Evan Carter: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Josh Jung: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Ezequiel Duran: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match TEX pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match TEX pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match TEX pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=41 matches TEX BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match CHC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match CHC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match CHC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=39 matches CHC BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 8, TEX 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 7 - TEX 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.58, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'TEX', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.7862426597582038, 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 6, 'path': '20260509_CHC@TEX.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.7659427175843695, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260508_CHC@TEX.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 5 TEX', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHC 7 - 5 TEX', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_CHC@TEX.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@TEX.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 181.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 181.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 6 - 5 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 7 - 5 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 7-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CHC, final=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CHC wins 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-5, final 7-5 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 12.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 7-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 15/40 = 0.375.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 12/39 = 0.308.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match TEX pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match TEX pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match TEX pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=41 matches TEX BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match CHC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match CHC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match CHC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=39 matches CHC BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 12 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHC 8, TEX 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHC 7 - TEX 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.58, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'TEX', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.7862426597582038, 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 6, 'path': '20260509_CHC@TEX.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.7659427175843695, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260508_CHC@TEX.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHC 6 - 5 TEX', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CHC 7 - 5 TEX', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_CHC@TEX.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHC@TEX.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 181.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 145.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 181.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 145.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHC 6 - 5 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHC 7 - 5 TEX.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 7-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CHC, final=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CHC wins 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-5, final 7-5 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 12.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 7-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 15/40 = 0.375.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 12/39 = 0.308.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=4, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Seiya Suzuki: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ian Happ: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Busch: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Carson Kelly: R current=0 box=1; Matt Shaw: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Dansby Swanson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (SO: current=4, sim=2).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=30, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=1, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Alejandro Osuna: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Joc Pederson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=4; Justin Foscue: AB current=3 box=4; Corey Seager: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Nimmo: H current=1 box=0; Evan Carter: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Josh Jung: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Ezequiel Duran: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.126775741577148	9.242376327514648		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	9		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	6	5	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	6	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	0	2	0	1	0	3	0	1	7	8
TEX	0	2	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	5	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHC	batting	34	8	0	0	0	5	4	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	CHC	pitching		7			2		5	5	10					9.0	5	0	0
current	TEX	batting	30	9	0	0	0	1	3	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	TEX	pitching		8			2		7	4	4					9.2	7	0	0
simulation	CHC	batting	35	8	1	0	2	7	7	4	2	0	2
simulation	CHC	pitching		7			2		5	5	10					9.0	5	39	181
simulation	TEX	batting	34	7	1	0	2	5	5	5	10	0	0
simulation	TEX	pitching		8			2		7	4	2					9.0	7	41	145

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	CHC		RF	Seiya Suzuki	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		DH	Moisés Ballesteros	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.000
current	CHC		LF	Ian Happ	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		1B	Michael Busch	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		2B	Nico Hoerner	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	CHC		C	Carson Kelly	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		3B	Matt Shaw	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CHC		SS	Dansby Swanson	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		LF	Alejandro Osuna	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		DH	Joc Pederson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		1B	Justin Foscue	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TEX		SS	Corey Seager	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		RF	Brandon Nimmo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		CF	Evan Carter	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		3B	Josh Jung	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		2B	Ezequiel Duran	0	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	TEX		C	Danny Jansen	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	CHC	1	2B	Nico Hoerner	5	5	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	CHC	2	DH	Moisés Ballesteros	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	3	RF	Seiya Suzuki	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	4	LF	Ian Happ	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	CHC	5	1B	Michael Busch	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	CHC	6	C	Carson Kelly	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	7	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	8	SS	Dansby Swanson	4	3	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0.667
simulation	CHC	9	3B	Matt Shaw	4	3	1	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	TEX	1	RF	Brandon Nimmo	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	2	2B	Ezequiel Duran	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	3	SS	Corey Seager	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	4	3B	Josh Jung	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	0.333
simulation	TEX	5	CF	Evan Carter	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	6	DH	Joc Pederson	4	4	2	0	2	1	4	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	TEX	7	LF	Alejandro Osuna	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TEX	8	C	Danny Jansen	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	9	1B	Justin Foscue	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHC	1	Jameson Taillon	Starter	3.2	4	4	4	1	4	2	0	0	9.82	4.24	1.14
current	CHC	2	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.95
current	CHC	3	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.86	1.59
current	CHC	4	Ben Brown	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.82	0.91
current	CHC	5	Ethan Roberts	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.71
current	CHC	6	Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	13.50	8.64	1.80
current	TEX	1	Jacob deGrom	Starter	4.1	4	3	3	2	1	1	0	0	6.23	3.11	1.01
current	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.96	0.48
current	TEX	3	Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.80	1.33
current	TEX	4	Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	27.00	1.65	0.80
current	TEX	5	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.00	2.45	1.53
current	TEX	6	Gavin Collyer	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.83
simulation	CHC	1	Jameson Taillon	Starter	3.2	4	4	4	1	4	2	17	75	9.82	4.24	1.14
simulation	CHC	2	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	0.00	0.95
simulation	CHC	3	Ben Brown	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	23	0.00	1.82	0.91
simulation	CHC	4	Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	1	1	1	2	0	6	31	13.50	8.64	1.80
simulation	CHC	5	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	16	0.00	3.86	1.59
simulation	CHC	6	Ethan Roberts	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	19	0.00	0.00	0.71
simulation	TEX	1	Jacob deGrom	Starter	4.1	4	3	3	2	1	1	21	81	6.23	3.11	1.01
simulation	TEX	2	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	8	0.00	0.96	0.48
simulation	TEX	3	Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	3	3	1	1	1	7	28	27.00	1.65	0.80
simulation	TEX	4	Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	11	0.00	4.80	1.33
simulation	TEX	5	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	0	6	17	9.00	2.45	1.53

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHC	Jameson Taillon	Starter	3.2	4	4	1	4	17	75
CHC	Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	0	4	17
CHC	Ben Brown	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	23
CHC	Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	2	1	2	6	31
CHC	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	2	3	16
CHC	Ethan Roberts	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	19
TEX	Jacob deGrom	Starter	4.1	3	4	2	1	21	81
TEX	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	3	8
TEX	Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	1	7	28
TEX	Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	11
TEX	Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	1	0	6	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260510_COL@PHI

20260510_COL@PHI.json • 2026-05-10

COL 6 - PHI 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 90INFO 9

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=8; R: current=6, sim=5; ER: current=6, sim=5; SO: current=11, sim=10).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jordan Beck: AB current=4 box=5, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Ezequiel Tovar: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Tyler Freeman: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jake McCarthy: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Willi Castro: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brenton Doyle: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: AB current=4 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=9; R: current=7, sim=6; ER: current=7, sim=6; SO: current=10, sim=8).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=35; H: current=10, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=7, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: J.T. Realmuto: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Trea Turner: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Alec Bohm: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Justin Crawford: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Adolis García: RBI current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match PHI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match PHI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match PHI pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=39 matches PHI BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match COL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match COL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match COL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=36 matches COL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.9.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.412/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: COL 9, PHI 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: COL 6 - PHI 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: COL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for COL; cap=0.56, reasons=a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'COL', 'opponent_team': 'PHI', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-04-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'COL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'COL', 'confidence': 0.5611350146513927, 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 6, 'path': '20260509_COL@PHI.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260508_COL@PHI.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'COL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'COL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'COL 5 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'COL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'COL 6 - 5 PHI', 'winner': 'COL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_COL@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@PHI.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 5 - 4 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 6 - 5 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: COL wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=COL, final=COL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: COL wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: COL wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 6-5 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: COL wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 6/40 = 0.150.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 8/40 = 0.200.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match PHI pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match PHI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match PHI pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=39 matches PHI BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match COL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match COL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match COL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=36 matches COL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.9.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.412/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: COL 9, PHI 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: COL 6 - PHI 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: COL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for COL; cap=0.56, reasons=a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'COL', 'opponent_team': 'PHI', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-04-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'COL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'COL', 'confidence': 0.5611350146513927, 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 6, 'path': '20260509_COL@PHI.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260508_COL@PHI.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'COL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'COL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'COL 5 - 4 PHI', 'winner': 'COL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'COL 6 - 5 PHI', 'winner': 'COL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_COL@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@PHI.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 5 - 4 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 6 - 5 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: COL wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=COL, final=COL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: COL wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: COL wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 6-5 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: COL wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 6/40 = 0.150.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 8/40 = 0.200.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=8; R: current=6, sim=5; ER: current=6, sim=5; SO: current=11, sim=10).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=5, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; BB: current=0, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jordan Beck: AB current=4 box=5, 3B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Ezequiel Tovar: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Tyler Freeman: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jake McCarthy: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Willi Castro: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brenton Doyle: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Mickey Moniak: AB current=4 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Karros: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=9; R: current=7, sim=6; ER: current=7, sim=6; SO: current=10, sim=8).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=35; H: current=10, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=7, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: J.T. Realmuto: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Bryson Stott: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Trea Turner: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Alec Bohm: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Justin Crawford: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Adolis García: RBI current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.983359336853027	4.2913641929626465		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	2	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	6	9
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	5	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	COL	batting	33	9	0	0	0	5	5	0	9	0	0	0	0
current	COL	pitching		9			1		6	1	11					9.2	6	0	0
current	PHI	batting	36	10	0	0	0	7	5	1	10	0	0	0	0
current	PHI	pitching		10			1		7	2	10					9.2	7	0	0
simulation	COL	batting	36	9	1	2	1	6	6	2	8	0	1
simulation	COL	pitching		8			1		5	1	10					9.0	5	36	164
simulation	PHI	batting	35	8	3	0	1	5	5	1	10	0	0
simulation	PHI	pitching		9			1		6	2	8					9.0	6	39	156

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	COL		RF	Jordan Beck	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		2B	Tyler Freeman	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		LF	Jake McCarthy	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	COL		1B	Willi Castro	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		CF	Brenton Doyle	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	COL		DH	Mickey Moniak	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		3B	Kyle Karros	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	COL		C	Hunter Goodman	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		C	J.T. Realmuto	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		2B	Bryson Stott	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		SS	Trea Turner	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		3B	Alec Bohm	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		CF	Justin Crawford	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		1B	Bryce Harper	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		DH	Kyle Schwarber	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
current	PHI		RF	Adolis García	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PHI		LF	Brandon Marsh	0	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	COL	1	RF	Jordan Beck	5	5	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	COL	2	2B	Tyler Freeman	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	COL	3	C	Hunter Goodman	5	5	2	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	COL	4	1B	Willi Castro	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	COL	5	CF	Brenton Doyle	4	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	COL	6	DH	Mickey Moniak	4	3	1	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	COL	7	3B	Kyle Karros	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	COL	8	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	COL	9	LF	Jake McCarthy	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	1	SS	Trea Turner	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	PHI	2	DH	Kyle Schwarber	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	3	1B	Bryce Harper	4	4	3	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	PHI	4	RF	Adolis García	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	5	LF	Brandon Marsh	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	6	C	J.T. Realmuto	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	7	2B	Bryson Stott	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	8	3B	Alec Bohm	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	9	CF	Justin Crawford	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	COL	1	Tomoyuki Sugano	Starter	4.1	1	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0.00	3.41	1.14
current	COL	2	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.11	0.82
current	COL	3	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.95	1.76
current	COL	4	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.0	5	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	45.00	6.32	1.79
current	COL	5	Brennan Bernardino	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	13.50	3.60	1.27
current	COL	6	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.66	1.60
current	PHI	1	Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	4.1	4	1	1	1	5	1	0	0	2.08	2.42	1.34
current	PHI	2	Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	1.1	3	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	20.25	4.32	1.32
current	PHI	3	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	6.75	2.08	1.15
current	PHI	4	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.80	1.07
current	PHI	5	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	13.50	5.40	1.95
current	PHI	6	Tanner Banks	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	13.50	4.86	1.92
simulation	COL	1	Tomoyuki Sugano	Starter	4.1	1	0	0	0	7	0	16	75	0.00	3.41	1.14
simulation	COL	2	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.0	5	5	5	1	1	1	9	41	45.00	6.32	1.79
simulation	COL	3	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	1.11	0.82
simulation	COL	4	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	15	0.00	4.66	1.60
simulation	COL	5	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	16	0.00	3.95	1.76
simulation	PHI	1	Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	4.1	4	1	1	1	5	1	20	85	2.08	2.42	1.34
simulation	PHI	2	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	1	1	0	2	0	5	20	6.75	2.08	1.15
simulation	PHI	3	Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	1.1	3	3	3	1	0	0	8	31	20.25	4.32	1.32
simulation	PHI	4	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	1	0	1	0	3	9	13.50	5.40	1.95
simulation	PHI	5	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	1.80	1.07

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
COL	Tomoyuki Sugano	Starter	4.1	0	1	0	7	16	75
COL	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.0	5	5	1	1	9	41
COL	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	0	1	4	17
COL	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	1	0	0	4	15
COL	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	3	16
PHI	Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	4.1	1	4	1	5	20	85
PHI	Jhoan Duran	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	2	0	2	5	20
PHI	Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	1.1	3	3	1	0	8	31
PHI	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	1	3	9
PHI	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	11

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260510_DET@KC

20260510_DET@KC.json • 2026-05-10

DET 2 - KC 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 92INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=8; R: current=7, sim=5; ER: current=7, sim=5; SO: current=13, sim=9).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jahmai Jones: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Wenceel Pérez: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Zack Short: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Matt Vierling: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Spencer Torkelson: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Elias Díaz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Maikel Garcia: AB current=4 box=5, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Kyle Isbel: H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Carter Jensen: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Vinnie Pasquantino: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match KC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match KC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=37 matches KC BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match DET pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match DET pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match DET pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=38 matches DET BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.435.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.565.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.565.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 8, KC 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 2 - KC 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: KC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for KC; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'KC', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-04-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'DET'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'confidence': 0.57325, 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260509_DET@KC.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'confidence': 0.5429899536471938, 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260508_DET@KC.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'KC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'KC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'DET 2 - 5 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_DET@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@KC.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 3 - 4 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 2 - 5 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: KC wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=KC, final=KC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.565.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: KC wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: KC wins 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 2-5 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: KC wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 12/40 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 11/40 = 0.275.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match KC pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match KC pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=37 matches KC BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match DET pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match DET pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match DET pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=38 matches DET BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.435.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.565.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.565.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 8, KC 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 2 - KC 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: KC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for KC; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'KC', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-04-16', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 10, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'DET'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'confidence': 0.57325, 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260509_DET@KC.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'confidence': 0.5429899536471938, 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260508_DET@KC.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'KC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'KC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'DET 3 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'DET 2 - 5 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_DET@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@KC.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 3 - 4 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 2 - 5 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: KC wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=KC, final=KC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.565.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: KC wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: KC wins 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 2-5 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: KC wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 12/40 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 11/40 = 0.275.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=8; R: current=7, sim=5; ER: current=7, sim=5; SO: current=13, sim=9).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jahmai Jones: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Riley Greene: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Wenceel Pérez: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kevin McGonigle: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Dillon Dingler: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Zack Short: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Matt Vierling: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Spencer Torkelson: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=8; 2B: current=0, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=7, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Elias Díaz: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Bobby Witt Jr.: H current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1; Maikel Garcia: AB current=4 box=5, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Kyle Isbel: H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Carter Jensen: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Vinnie Pasquantino: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Isaac Collins: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.2308247089385986	4.908121109008789		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.565	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	8
KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	5	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	DET	batting	33	9	0	0	2	2	4	10	0	0	0	0
current	DET	pitching		10				7	4	13					9.1	7	0	0
current	KC	batting	31	9	0	0	1	4	1	7	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		8				2	2	7					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	DET	batting	35	8	2	0	2	2	2	7	0	0
simulation	DET	pitching		8				5	4	9					8.0	5	38	153
simulation	KC	batting	32	8	3	1	5	5	4	9	0	2
simulation	KC	pitching		8				2	2	7					9.0	2	37	146

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	DET		DH	Jahmai Jones	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	DET		LF	Riley Greene	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	DET		RF	Wenceel Pérez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		3B	Kevin McGonigle	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	DET		C	Dillon Dingler	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		SS	Zack Short	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	DET		CF	Matt Vierling	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	DET		1B	Spencer Torkelson	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.250
current	DET		2B	Hao-Yu Lee	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		C	Elias Díaz	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	KC		SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		3B	Maikel Garcia	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		CF	Kyle Isbel	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		DH	Carter Jensen	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		2B	Nick Loftin	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	KC		1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		LF	Isaac Collins	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	KC		RF	Jac Caglianone	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	DET	1	CF	Matt Vierling	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	DET	2	3B	Kevin McGonigle	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	DET	3	DH	Jahmai Jones	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	DET	4	C	Dillon Dingler	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	DET	5	LF	Riley Greene	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	DET	6	RF	Wenceel Pérez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	DET	7	1B	Spencer Torkelson	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	DET	8	2B	Hao-Yu Lee	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	DET	9	SS	Zack Short	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	KC	1	3B	Maikel Garcia	5	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	KC	2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	KC	3	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	KC	4	LF	Isaac Collins	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	5	DH	Carter Jensen	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	KC	6	2B	Nick Loftin	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	KC	7	RF	Jac Caglianone	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	KC	8	C	Elias Díaz	4	4	2	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	KC	9	CF	Kyle Isbel	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	DET	1	Brenan Hanifee	Starter	4.1	0	0	0	3	6	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.90
current	DET	2	Burch Smith	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	2	1	0	0	0	13.50	3.09	1.37
current	DET	3	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.1	4	3	3	0	2	0	0	20.25	0.51	1.25
current	DET	4	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	3.24	1.32
current	DET	5	Brant Hurter	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	13.50	1.77	0.84
current	DET	6	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	13.50	4.15	1.67
current	KC	1	Noah Cameron	Starter	3.2	7	2	2	1	5	0	0	4.91	5.40	1.61
current	KC	2	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	3.31	1.41
current	KC	3	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	1.72	0.57
current	KC	4	Matt Strahm	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.68	1.23
current	KC	5	Nick Mears	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.93	1.14
simulation	DET	1	Brenan Hanifee	Starter	4.1	0	0	0	3	6	19	78	0.00	0.00	0.90
simulation	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	5	17	0.00	3.24	1.32
simulation	DET	3	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.1	4	3	3	0	2	7	33	20.25	0.51	1.25
simulation	DET	4	Burch Smith	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	2	1	0	7	25	13.50	3.09	1.37
simulation	KC	1	Noah Cameron	Starter	3.2	7	2	2	1	5	23	91	4.91	5.40	1.61
simulation	KC	2	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	1	3	10	0.00	3.31	1.41
simulation	KC	3	Matt Strahm	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	5	23	0.00	3.68	1.23
simulation	KC	4	Nick Mears	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	10	0.00	1.93	1.14
simulation	KC	5	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	12	0.00	1.72	0.57

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
DET	Brenan Hanifee	Starter	4.1	0	0	3	6	19	78
DET	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	1	5	17
DET	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.1	3	4	0	2	7	33
DET	Burch Smith	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	1	0	7	25
KC	Noah Cameron	Starter	3.2	2	7	1	5	23	91
KC	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	1	3	10
KC	Matt Strahm	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	5	23
KC	Nick Mears	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	10
KC	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	12

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260510_HOU@CIN

20260510_HOU@CIN.json • 2026-05-10

HOU 6 - CIN 1

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 89INFO 9

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Prediction target vs final simulation drift The inning simulation can vary from ML target, but large drift should be reviewed or explicitly documented as acceptable variance.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 4-3, final 6-1 (delta 4).

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 4-3, final 6-1 (delta 4).

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 4-3, final 6-1 (delta 4).
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=9; R: current=7, sim=6; ER: current=7, sim=6; SO: current=10, sim=8).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=10, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Blake Dunn: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Matt McLain: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Spencer Steer: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: RBI current=1 box=0; Ke'Bryan Hayes: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Will Benson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Tyler Stephenson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (SO: current=9, sim=6).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=0, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=1, sim=4).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; César Salazar: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=2; Nick Allen: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Christian Walker: AB current=4 box=5; Cam Smith: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3; Zach Cole: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Brice Matthews: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match HOU pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match HOU pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match HOU pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=34 matches HOU BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match CIN pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match CIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=40 matches CIN BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 9, CIN 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 6 - CIN 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: HOU.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for HOU; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 10, 'winner': 'HOU'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'confidence': 0.7127635891710762, 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260509_HOU@CIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'confidence': 0.5913193615465535, 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 10, 'path': '20260508_HOU@CIN.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'HOU', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'HOU 4 - 3 CIN', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'HOU 6 - 1 CIN', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_HOU@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@CIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 4 - 3 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 6 - 1 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: HOU wins 6-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=HOU, final=HOU.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: HOU wins 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: HOU wins 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: HOU wins 6-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 10/40 = 0.250.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 20/40 = 0.500.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match HOU pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match HOU pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match HOU pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=34 matches HOU BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match CIN pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match CIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=40 matches CIN BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 9, CIN 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 6 - CIN 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: HOU.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for HOU; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 8, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CIN'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 10, 'winner': 'HOU'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'confidence': 0.7127635891710762, 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260509_HOU@CIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'confidence': 0.5913193615465535, 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 10, 'path': '20260508_HOU@CIN.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'HOU', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'HOU', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'HOU 4 - 3 CIN', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'HOU 6 - 1 CIN', 'winner': 'HOU'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_HOU@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@CIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 160.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 4 - 3 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 6 - 1 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: HOU wins 6-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=HOU, final=HOU.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: HOU wins 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: HOU wins 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: HOU wins 6-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 10/40 = 0.250.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 20/40 = 0.500.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=9; R: current=7, sim=6; ER: current=7, sim=6; SO: current=10, sim=8).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=3; RBI: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=10, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Blake Dunn: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0; Matt McLain: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0; Spencer Steer: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Elly De La Cruz: RBI current=1 box=0; Ke'Bryan Hayes: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Will Benson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Tyler Stephenson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (SO: current=9, sim=6).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=36; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=0, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=1, sim=4).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jose Altuve: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; César Salazar: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=2; Nick Allen: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Christian Walker: AB current=4 box=5; Cam Smith: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3; Zach Cole: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Brice Matthews: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.228355884552002	3.2600913047790527		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	3		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.560	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	1		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	0	1	6	9
CIN	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	HOU	batting	32	9	0	0	0	0	4	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	HOU	pitching		5			0		1	2	9					11.0	1	0	0
current	CIN	batting	33	9	0	0	0	3	1	2	10	0	0	0	0
current	CIN	pitching		10			2		7	4	10					9.2	7	0	0
simulation	HOU	batting	36	9	2	0	2	6	6	4	8	0	0
simulation	HOU	pitching		5			0		1	2	6					9.0	1	34	132
simulation	CIN	batting	32	5	3	0	0	1	1	2	6	0	0
simulation	CIN	pitching		9			2		6	4	8					9.0	6	40	160

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	HOU		DH	Yordan Alvarez	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	HOU		2B	Jose Altuve	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		C	César Salazar	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	HOU		SS	Nick Allen	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	HOU		1B	Christian Walker	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		RF	Cam Smith	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		LF	Zach Cole	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	HOU		CF	Brice Matthews	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	HOU		3B	Isaac Paredes	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	CIN		CF	Blake Dunn	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	0.250
current	CIN		2B	Matt McLain	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	CIN		1B	Spencer Steer	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	CIN		SS	Elly De La Cruz	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CIN		3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CIN		RF	Will Benson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CIN		DH	Sal Stewart	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	CIN		C	Tyler Stephenson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CIN		LF	JJ Bleday	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	0.250
simulation	HOU	1	2B	Jose Altuve	5	4	2	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	HOU	2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	HOU	3	3B	Isaac Paredes	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	4	1B	Christian Walker	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	HOU	5	RF	Cam Smith	4	3	2	2	0	1	3	1	1	0.667
simulation	HOU	6	CF	Brice Matthews	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	HOU	7	LF	Zach Cole	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	HOU	8	SS	Nick Allen	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	HOU	9	C	César Salazar	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	CIN	1	RF	Will Benson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CIN	2	1B	Spencer Steer	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	3	SS	Elly De La Cruz	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CIN	4	DH	Sal Stewart	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CIN	5	LF	JJ Bleday	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	6	C	Tyler Stephenson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	7	CF	Blake Dunn	4	3	2	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.667
simulation	CIN	8	2B	Matt McLain	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CIN	9	3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	3	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	HOU	1	Kai-Wei Teng	Starter	5.2	5	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	0.00	2.35	0.96
current	HOU	2	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5.40	9.24	2.29
current	HOU	3	AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	5.09	1.39
current	HOU	4	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.50	1.19
current	HOU	5	Bryan King	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.45	1.34
current	HOU	6	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.32	1.32
current	CIN	1	Andrew Abbott	Starter	4.1	4	3	3	2	5	1	0	0	6.23	5.13	1.64
current	CIN	2	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	6.75	3.06	1.53
current	CIN	3	Graham Ashcraft	Middle Reliever	1.1	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	13.50	1.83	1.27
current	CIN	4	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.87	1.28
current	CIN	5	Connor Phillips	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.50	1.60
current	CIN	6	Pierce Johnson	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	13.50	3.38	1.25
simulation	HOU	1	Kai-Wei Teng	Starter	5.2	5	0	0	1	5	0	24	93	0.00	2.35	0.96
simulation	HOU	2	Bryan King	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	16	0.00	3.45	1.34
simulation	HOU	3	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	1	0	0	0	3	11	5.40	9.24	2.29
simulation	HOU	4	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	12	0.00	4.50	1.19
simulation	CIN	1	Andrew Abbott	Starter	4.1	4	3	3	2	5	1	21	86	6.23	5.13	1.64
simulation	CIN	2	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	2	2	0	6	30	0.00	2.87	1.28
simulation	CIN	3	Graham Ashcraft	Middle Reliever	1.1	3	2	2	0	0	0	6	19	13.50	1.83	1.27
simulation	CIN	4	Connor Phillips	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	10	0.00	4.50	1.60
simulation	CIN	5	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	1	4	15	6.75	3.06	1.53

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
HOU	Kai-Wei Teng	Starter	5.2	0	5	1	5	24	93
HOU	Bryan King	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	1	1	4	16
HOU	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	3	11
HOU	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	12
CIN	Andrew Abbott	Starter	4.1	3	4	2	5	21	86
CIN	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	2	2	6	30
CIN	Graham Ashcraft	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	3	0	0	6	19
CIN	Connor Phillips	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	1	3	10
CIN	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	0	0	4	15

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	warning	1	0	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260510_LAA@TOR

20260510_LAA@TOR.json • 2026-05-10

LAA 3 - TOR 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 91INFO 9

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=8; R: current=6, sim=5; ER: current=6, sim=5).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Zach Neto: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Nolan Schanuel: SO current=1 box=0; Sebastián Rivero: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Bryce Teodosio: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Oswald Peraza: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=3, SO current=2 box=1; Jorge Soler: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=3; ER: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=8).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Heineman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jesús Sánchez: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Myles Straw: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Andrés Giménez: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Lenyn Sosa: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match TOR pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match TOR pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=36 matches TOR BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match LAA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match LAA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match LAA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=37 matches LAA BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.435.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.565.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.565.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAA 6, TOR 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAA 3 - TOR 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TOR.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TOR; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'opponent_team': 'LAA', 'h2h_net_margin': 11, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 14, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 13, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-04-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'LAA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'confidence': 0.58, 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 13, 'path': '20260509_LAA@TOR.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'confidence': 0.5997525573111573, 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260508_LAA@TOR.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'TOR', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 5 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_LAA@TOR.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAA@TOR.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 3 - 4 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAA 3 - 5 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=TOR, final=TOR.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.565.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TOR wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-5 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TOR wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 11/40 = 0.275.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 12/39 = 0.308.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match TOR pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match TOR pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=36 matches TOR BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match LAA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match LAA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match LAA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=37 matches LAA BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.435.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.565.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.565.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAA 6, TOR 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAA 3 - TOR 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: TOR.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TOR; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'opponent_team': 'LAA', 'h2h_net_margin': 11, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 14, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 13, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-04-22', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'LAA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'confidence': 0.58, 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 13, 'path': '20260509_LAA@TOR.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'LAA', 'confidence': 0.5997525573111573, 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260508_LAA@TOR.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'TOR', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 4 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'LAA 3 - 5 TOR', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_LAA@TOR.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAA@TOR.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAA 3 - 4 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAA 3 - 5 TOR.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 5-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=TOR, final=TOR.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.565.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TOR wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-5 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TOR wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 11/40 = 0.275.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 12/39 = 0.308.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=8; R: current=6, sim=5; ER: current=6, sim=5).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; BB: current=2, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Zach Neto: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Nolan Schanuel: SO current=1 box=0; Sebastián Rivero: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Bryce Teodosio: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Oswald Peraza: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=3, SO current=2 box=1; Jorge Soler: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=3; ER: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=8).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=1, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Heineman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jesús Sánchez: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Myles Straw: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Andrés Giménez: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ernie Clement: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Lenyn Sosa: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.343718528747559	4.262364864349365		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.565	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	6
TOR	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	LAA	batting	34	9	0	0	0	1	2	2	8	0	0	0	0
current	LAA	pitching		9			0		6	5	6					8.2	6	0	0
current	TOR	batting	34	8	0	0	0	1	4	1	7	0	0	0	0
current	TOR	pitching		7			1		4	3	10					9.2	4	0	0
simulation	LAA	batting	33	6	1	0	1	3	3	3	8	0	0
simulation	LAA	pitching		8			0		5	5	6					8.0	5	37	146
simulation	TOR	batting	32	8	1	0	0	5	5	5	6	0	0
simulation	TOR	pitching		6			1		3	3	8					9.0	3	36	156

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	LAA		SS	Zach Neto	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		3B	Vaughn Grissom	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		1B	Nolan Schanuel	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		C	Sebastián Rivero	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	LAA		CF	Bryce Teodosio	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	LAA		2B	Oswald Peraza	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		DH	Mike Trout	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	2	0.250
current	LAA		RF	Jorge Soler	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	LAA		LF	Jo Adell	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	TOR		C	Tyler Heineman	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	TOR		RF	Jesús Sánchez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	TOR		LF	Myles Straw	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.333
current	TOR		SS	Andrés Giménez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	TOR		2B	Ernie Clement	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	TOR		1B	Lenyn Sosa	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	TOR		DH	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	TOR		CF	Daulton Varsho	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	LAA	1	SS	Zach Neto	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	LAA	2	DH	Mike Trout	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	LAA	3	3B	Vaughn Grissom	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	LAA	4	RF	Jorge Soler	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	LAA	5	LF	Jo Adell	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	LAA	6	1B	Nolan Schanuel	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	7	2B	Oswald Peraza	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	LAA	8	C	Sebastián Rivero	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	LAA	9	CF	Bryce Teodosio	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	1	2B	Ernie Clement	5	5	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.600
simulation	TOR	2	CF	Daulton Varsho	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	TOR	3	DH	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	1	0	0.333
simulation	TOR	4	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	TOR	5	RF	Jesús Sánchez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	TOR	6	1B	Lenyn Sosa	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	1	2	0.333
simulation	TOR	7	SS	Andrés Giménez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	8	LF	Myles Straw	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	TOR	9	C	Tyler Heineman	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	LAA	1	José Soriano	Starter	3.2	5	3	3	3	5	0	0	0	7.36	1.74	1.09
current	LAA	2	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.58	1.12
current	LAA	3	Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	1.2	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	10.80	3.38	1.12
current	LAA	4	Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1.00
current	LAA	5	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	13.50	2.70	1.65
current	TOR	1	Spencer Miles	Starter	4.1	4	2	2	3	5	1	0	0	4.15	3.50	1.17
current	TOR	2	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	1.2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5.40	5.40	1.74
current	TOR	3	Braydon Fisher	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.61	1.06
current	TOR	4	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	0.46	1.07
current	TOR	5	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.04	1.08
current	TOR	6	Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	13.50	4.61	1.32
simulation	LAA	1	José Soriano	Starter	3.2	5	3	3	3	5	0	23	92	7.36	1.74	1.09
simulation	LAA	2	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	11	0.00	4.58	1.12
simulation	LAA	3	Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	1.2	3	2	2	0	0	0	6	20	10.80	3.38	1.12
simulation	LAA	4	Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	23	0.00	0.00	1.00
simulation	TOR	1	Spencer Miles	Starter	4.1	4	2	2	3	5	1	22	105	4.15	3.50	1.17
simulation	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	12	0.00	0.46	1.07
simulation	TOR	3	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	15	0.00	2.04	1.08
simulation	TOR	4	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	1.2	2	1	1	0	0	0	5	12	5.40	5.40	1.74
simulation	TOR	5	Braydon Fisher	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	12	0.00	2.61	1.06

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
LAA	José Soriano	Starter	3.2	3	5	3	5	23	92
LAA	Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	3	11
LAA	Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	1.2	2	3	0	0	6	20
LAA	Kirby Yates	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	2	0	5	23
TOR	Spencer Miles	Starter	4.1	2	4	3	5	22	105
TOR	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	12
TOR	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	15
TOR	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	2	0	0	5	12
TOR	Braydon Fisher	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	12

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260510_MIN@CLE

20260510_MIN@CLE.json • 2026-05-10

MIN 2 - CLE 6

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 89INFO 9

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Prediction target vs final simulation drift The inning simulation can vary from ML target, but large drift should be reviewed or explicitly documented as acceptable variance.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 4-5, final 2-6 (delta 3).

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 4-5, final 2-6 (delta 3).

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 4-5, final 2-6 (delta 3).
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (SO: current=7, sim=5).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=8; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=6; R: current=3, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=3; HBP: current=0, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Steven Kwan: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Angel Martínez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Daniel Schneemann: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: AB current=4 box=1, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Patrick Bailey: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Chase DeLauter: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brayan Rocchio: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=5, sim=8; R: current=4, sim=6; ER: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=6, sim=7).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Trevor Larnach: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Byron Buxton: 3B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Martin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Jeffers: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: BB current=0 box=1; Luke Keaschall: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match MIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match MIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match MIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=43 matches MIN BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match CLE pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match CLE pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=38 matches CLE BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 6, CLE 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 2 - CLE 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.619760888185003, 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260509_MIN@CLE.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.6279979974509636, 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260508_MIN@CLE.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIN 2 - 6 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -2, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_MIN@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@CLE.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 180.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 180.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 4 - 5 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 2 - 6 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 6-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CLE, final=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CLE wins 6-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 6-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 15/41 = 0.366.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 7/40 = 0.175.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match MIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match MIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match MIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=43 matches MIN BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match CLE pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match CLE pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=38 matches CLE BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.3.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 6, CLE 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 2 - CLE 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CLE.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CLE; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'CLE'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.619760888185003, 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260509_MIN@CLE.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.6279979974509636, 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260508_MIN@CLE.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'CLE', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CLE', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 4 - 5 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'MIN 2 - 6 CLE', 'winner': 'CLE'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -2, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_MIN@CLE.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@CLE.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 180.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 146.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 180.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 4 - 5 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 2 - 6 CLE.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 6-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CLE, final=CLE.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CLE wins 6-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 6-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 15/41 = 0.366.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 7/40 = 0.175.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (SO: current=7, sim=5).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=37; H: current=9, sim=8; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=6; R: current=3, sim=6; BB: current=4, sim=3; HBP: current=0, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Travis Bazzana: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Steven Kwan: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Angel Martínez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Daniel Schneemann: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; José Ramírez: AB current=4 box=1, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Patrick Bailey: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1; Chase DeLauter: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brayan Rocchio: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=5, sim=8; R: current=4, sim=6; ER: current=4, sim=6; SO: current=6, sim=7).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=2; R: current=5, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Trevor Larnach: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0; Josh Bell: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Byron Buxton: 3B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Martin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Jeffers: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: BB current=0 box=1; Luke Keaschall: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.892200469970703	4.155566215515137		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.560	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
MIN	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	6
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	6	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIN	batting	35	7	0	0	0	3	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIN	pitching		5			1		4	3	6					9.0	4	0	0
current	CLE	batting	33	9	0	0	0	2	3	4	7	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		6			1		2	2	7					10.2	2	0	0
simulation	MIN	batting	36	6	1	1	1	2	2	2	5	0	0
simulation	MIN	pitching		8			1		6	3	7					9.2	6	43	180
simulation	CLE	batting	37	8	0	0	1	6	6	3	7	0	3
simulation	CLE	pitching		6			1		2	2	5					10.0	2	38	146

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	MIN		LF	Trevor Larnach	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		DH	Josh Bell	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		CF	Byron Buxton	0	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	MIN		RF	Austin Martin	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		C	Ryan Jeffers	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIN		1B	Kody Clemens	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	MIN		3B	Royce Lewis	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	MIN		2B	Luke Keaschall	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	MIN		SS	Brooks Lee	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		2B	Travis Bazzana	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	CLE		CF	Steven Kwan	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	CLE		LF	Angel Martínez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		3B	Daniel Schneemann	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		DH	José Ramírez	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		C	Patrick Bailey	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	CLE		RF	Chase DeLauter	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	CLE		1B	Kyle Manzardo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	1	CF	Byron Buxton	5	5	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	MIN	2	LF	Trevor Larnach	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	3	C	Ryan Jeffers	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	4	DH	Josh Bell	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	5	RF	Austin Martin	4	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	MIN	6	2B	Luke Keaschall	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	7	1B	Kody Clemens	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	8	SS	Brooks Lee	4	4	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	MIN	9	3B	Royce Lewis	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	1	CF	Steven Kwan	5	4	2	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	CLE	2	RF	Chase DeLauter	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	3	DH	José Ramírez	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	0.000
simulation	CLE	4	1B	Kyle Manzardo	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	5	3B	Daniel Schneemann	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	CLE	6	LF	Angel Martínez	5	5	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	CLE	7	2B	Travis Bazzana	5	5	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	CLE	8	C	Patrick Bailey	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIN	1	Andrew Morris	Starter	4.2	2	2	2	2	3	0	0	0	3.86	4.96	1.53
current	MIN	2	Justin Topa	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	6.75	7.41	1.82
current	MIN	3	Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	4.26	1.47
current	MIN	4	Kody Funderburk	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.81	1.38
current	MIN	5	Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.76	1.41
current	MIN	7	Luis García	Reliever	0.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	1	Gavin Williams	Starter	4.2	5	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	1.93	3.28	1.09
current	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	2.1	1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	3.86	3.44	1.25
current	CLE	3	Matt Festa	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	5.30	1.18
current	CLE	4	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.08	0.81
current	CLE	5	Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1.46
simulation	MIN	1	Andrew Morris	Starter	4.2	2	2	2	2	3	0	20	83	3.86	4.96	1.53
simulation	MIN	2	Justin Topa	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	1	2	0	4	21	6.75	7.41	1.82
simulation	MIN	3	Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	1	5	20	9.00	4.26	1.47
simulation	MIN	4	Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	15	0.00	2.76	1.41
simulation	MIN	5	Kody Funderburk	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	2.81	1.38
simulation	MIN	6	Luis García	Reliever	0.2	3	2	2	0	1	0	7	25	27.00	7.36	1.64
simulation	CLE	1	Gavin Williams	Starter	4.2	5	1	1	0	1	0	23	80	1.93	3.28	1.09
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	2.1	1	1	1	1	1	1	5	25	3.86	3.44	1.25
simulation	CLE	3	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	2.08	0.81
simulation	CLE	4	Matt Festa	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	7	26	0.00	5.30	1.18

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIN	Andrew Morris	Starter	4.2	2	2	2	3	20	83
MIN	Justin Topa	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	1	2	4	21
MIN	Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	20
MIN	Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	15
MIN	Kody Funderburk	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16
MIN	Luis García	Reliever	0.2	2	3	0	1	7	25
CLE	Gavin Williams	Starter	4.2	1	5	0	1	23	80
CLE	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	2.1	1	1	1	1	5	25
CLE	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	15
CLE	Matt Festa	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	1	2	7	26

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	warning	1	0	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260510_NYM@ARI

20260510_NYM@ARI.json • 2026-05-10

NYM 4 - ARI 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 90INFO 9

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=12, sim=11; R: current=5, sim=4; ER: current=5, sim=4).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=8).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Corbin Carroll: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Nolan Arenado: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Adrian Del Castillo: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Ketel Marte: SO current=1 box=0; Jorge Barrosa: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ildemaro Vargas: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Waldschmidt: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=1; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (SO: current=11, sim=8).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=4; R: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=11; SF: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mark Vientos: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Slater: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Luis Torrens: H current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Andy Ibáñez: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Juan Soto: SO current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Tyrone Taylor: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=3; Marcus Semien: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match NYM pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match NYM pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=35 matches NYM BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match ARI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match ARI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match ARI pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=43 matches ARI BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.561.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.561.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.439.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.381/0.862.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 11, ARI 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 4 - ARI 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYM; cap=0.58, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'opponent_team': 'ARI', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ARI'}, {'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-04-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'ARI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'confidence': 0.58, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260509_NYM@ARI.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'confidence': 0.58, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260508_NYM@ARI.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'NYM', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 3 ARI', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 3 ARI', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_NYM@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@ARI.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 187.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 187.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 4 - 3 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 4 - 3 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYM, final=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.561.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYM wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 14/38 = 0.368.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 13/39 = 0.333.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match NYM pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match NYM pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=35 matches NYM BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match ARI pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match ARI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match ARI pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=43 matches ARI BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.561.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.561.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.439.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.381/0.862.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 11, ARI 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 4 - ARI 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYM; cap=0.58, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'opponent_team': 'ARI', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'ARI'}, {'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-04-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'ARI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'confidence': 0.58, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260509_NYM@ARI.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'confidence': 0.58, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260508_NYM@ARI.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'NYM', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 3 ARI', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYM 4 - 3 ARI', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_NYM@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@ARI.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 187.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 187.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 4 - 3 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 4 - 3 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYM, final=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.561.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYM wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 14/38 = 0.368.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 13/39 = 0.333.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=12, sim=11; R: current=5, sim=4; ER: current=5, sim=4).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=8).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Corbin Carroll: R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Nolan Arenado: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Adrian Del Castillo: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Ketel Marte: SO current=1 box=0; Jorge Barrosa: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ildemaro Vargas: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Waldschmidt: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=2 box=1; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (SO: current=11, sim=8).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=2, sim=4; R: current=2, sim=4; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=11; SF: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mark Vientos: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Austin Slater: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Luis Torrens: H current=0 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Andy Ibáñez: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Juan Soto: SO current=1 box=0; Carson Benge: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Tyrone Taylor: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=3; Marcus Semien: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	0	0		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	0	0		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.561	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	11
ARI	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	3	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	NYM	batting	31	8	0	0	2	2	1	7	0	0	0	0
current	NYM	pitching		7				3	1	11					10.1	3	0	0
current	ARI	batting	32	9	0	0	2	2	1	10	0	0	0	0
current	ARI	pitching		12				5	5	11					10.0	5	0	0
simulation	NYM	batting	37	11	2	0	4	4	5	11	1	0
simulation	NYM	pitching		7				3	1	8					9.0	3	35	153
simulation	ARI	batting	34	7	1	0	3	3	1	8	0	0
simulation	ARI	pitching		11				4	5	11					9.0	4	43	187

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	NYM		1B	Mark Vientos	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	NYM		LF	Austin Slater	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYM		C	Luis Torrens	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	NYM		3B	Andy Ibáñez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	NYM		DH	Juan Soto	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	NYM		RF	Carson Benge	0	3	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.333
current	NYM		CF	Tyrone Taylor	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	NYM		2B	Marcus Semien	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	NYM		SS	Bo Bichette	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		RF	Corbin Carroll	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		3B	Nolan Arenado	0	3	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	ARI		DH	Adrian Del Castillo	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		2B	Ketel Marte	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		CF	Jorge Barrosa	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		1B	Ildemaro Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	ARI		LF	Ryan Waldschmidt	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.333
current	ARI		SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	ARI		C	James McCann	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	NYM	1	DH	Juan Soto	5	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	2	SS	Bo Bichette	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	3	0.000
simulation	NYM	3	LF	Austin Slater	5	5	2	1	1	1	0	2	0.400
simulation	NYM	4	1B	Mark Vientos	5	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	NYM	5	2B	Marcus Semien	5	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.750
simulation	NYM	6	3B	Andy Ibáñez	5	5	2	0	1	1	0	0	0.400
simulation	NYM	7	CF	Tyrone Taylor	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	NYM	8	RF	Carson Benge	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	NYM	9	C	Luis Torrens	4	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.667
simulation	ARI	1	2B	Ketel Marte	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	2	RF	Corbin Carroll	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	ARI	3	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	4	4	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	4	DH	Adrian Del Castillo	4	4	1	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	ARI	5	1B	Ildemaro Vargas	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	6	3B	Nolan Arenado	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	7	C	James McCann	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	ARI	8	CF	Jorge Barrosa	4	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	ARI	9	LF	Ryan Waldschmidt	3	3	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	NYM	1	Huascar Brazobán	Starter	4.1	7	3	3	1	4	0	0	6.23	1.53	0.96
current	NYM	2	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	1.20	0.87
current	NYM	3	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	4.26	1.34
current	NYM	4	Tobias Myers	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0.00	3.42	1.01
current	NYM	5	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	6.75	1.71
current	NYM	6	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	4.41	1.16
current	ARI	1	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	2.2	3	0	0	3	4	0	0	0.00	2.50	1.29
current	ARI	2	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
current	ARI	3	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	5.40	9.00	2.00
current	ARI	4	Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	9.00	10.80	2.40
current	ARI	5	Taylor Clarke	Middle Reliever	1.0	5	2	2	0	2	0	0	18.00	108.00	9.00
current	ARI	6	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.43
current	ARI	7	Michael Soroka	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.00	4.70	1.43
simulation	NYM	1	Huascar Brazobán	Starter	4.1	7	3	3	1	4	23	102	6.23	1.53	0.96
simulation	NYM	2	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	3	13	0.00	4.26	1.34
simulation	NYM	3	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	3	11	0.00	4.41	1.16
simulation	NYM	4	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	3	14	0.00	1.20	0.87
simulation	NYM	5	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	13	0.00	6.75	1.71
simulation	ARI	1	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	2.2	3	0	0	3	4	18	83	0.00	2.50	1.29
simulation	ARI	2	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	1	3	12	0.00	0.00	0.00
simulation	ARI	3	Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	5	17	9.00	10.80	2.40
simulation	ARI	4	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	4	16	0.00	0.00	0.43
simulation	ARI	5	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	1	2	2	5	26	5.40	9.00	2.00
simulation	ARI	6	Taylor Clarke	Middle Reliever	1.0	5	2	2	0	2	8	33	18.00	108.00	9.00

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
NYM	Huascar Brazobán	Starter	4.1	3	7	1	4	23	102
NYM	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	13
NYM	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	1	3	11
NYM	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	3	14
NYM	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
ARI	Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	2.2	0	3	3	4	18	83
ARI	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	1	3	12
ARI	Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	17
ARI	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	1	0	1	4	16
ARI	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	2	2	5	26
ARI	Taylor Clarke	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	5	0	2	8	33

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260510_NYY@MIL

20260510_NYY@MIL.json • 2026-05-10

NYY 4 - MIL 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 90INFO 9

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=4; ER: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=14, sim=10).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jackson Chourio: AB current=5 box=3, H current=2 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Rengifo: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Joey Ortiz: AB current=3 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Gary Sánchez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Andrew Vaughn: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Blake Perkins: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; ER: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=8).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; HR: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=11, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Aaron Judge: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=1; Spencer Jones: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=2 box=1; J.C. Escarra: SO current=1 box=3; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: H current=1 box=0; José Caballero: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan McMahon: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Ben Rice: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Trent Grisham: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match NYY pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match NYY pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=35 matches NYY BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match MIL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match MIL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match MIL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=38 matches MIL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.4.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.284/0.667.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 8, MIL 3.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 4 - MIL 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYY.	{'winner_confidence': 0.51, 'h2h_net_margin': -7, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'file': '20260509_NYY@MIL.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.631643370065269, 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 6, 'file': '20260508_NYY@MIL.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_NYY@MIL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@MIL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 14.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 5 - 4 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 4 - 3 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYY, final=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYY wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 4-3 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 14/37 = 0.378.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 15/40 = 0.375.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match NYY pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match NYY pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=35 matches NYY BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match MIL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match MIL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match MIL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=38 matches MIL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.4.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.284/0.667.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYY 8, MIL 3.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYY 4 - MIL 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYY.	{'winner_confidence': 0.51, 'h2h_net_margin': -7, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'confidence': 0.51, 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'file': '20260509_NYY@MIL.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.631643370065269, 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 6, 'file': '20260508_NYY@MIL.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_NYY@MIL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYY@MIL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 14.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYY 5 - 4 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYY 4 - 3 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYY, final=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYY wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 4-3 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 14/37 = 0.378.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 15/40 = 0.375.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=4; ER: current=5, sim=4; SO: current=14, sim=10).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=3; HR: current=0, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=7, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jackson Chourio: AB current=5 box=3, H current=2 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Garrett Mitchell: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Rengifo: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Joey Ortiz: AB current=3 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Gary Sánchez: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Andrew Vaughn: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brice Turang: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Blake Perkins: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=4, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; ER: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=8).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=9, sim=8; HR: current=0, sim=2; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=11, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Aaron Judge: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=1; Spencer Jones: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=2 box=1; J.C. Escarra: SO current=1 box=3; Jazz Chisholm Jr.: H current=1 box=0; José Caballero: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Ryan McMahon: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Ben Rice: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Trent Grisham: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.1817097663879395	2.9617397785186768		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	3		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	4	8
MIL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3	3

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	NYY	batting	33	9	0	0	0	4	4	4	11	0	0	0	0
current	NYY	pitching		4			1		4	4	10					14.0	4	0	0
current	MIL	batting	35	9	1	0	0	3	4	4	7	0	0	0	0
current	MIL	pitching		9			2		5	3	14					11.2	5	0	0
simulation	NYY	batting	35	8	0	0	2	4	4	3	10	0	0
simulation	NYY	pitching		3			1		3	4	8					9.0	3	35	156
simulation	MIL	batting	30	3	1	0	1	3	3	4	8	0	1
simulation	MIL	pitching		8			2		4	3	10					9.0	4	38	167

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	NYY		DH	Aaron Judge	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	0.250
current	NYY		RF	Spencer Jones	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.333
current	NYY		C	J.C. Escarra	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		SS	José Caballero	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYY		3B	Ryan McMahon	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	NYY		1B	Ben Rice	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		CF	Trent Grisham	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		LF	Cody Bellinger	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		LF	Jackson Chourio	0	5	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.400
current	MIL		CF	Garrett Mitchell	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		3B	Luis Rengifo	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	MIL		SS	Joey Ortiz	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIL		C	Gary Sánchez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		1B	Andrew Vaughn	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	MIL		2B	Brice Turang	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	MIL		RF	Blake Perkins	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	MIL		DH	William Contreras	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	1	CF	Trent Grisham	5	5	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	NYY	2	1B	Ben Rice	5	4	2	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	NYY	3	DH	Aaron Judge	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	NYY	4	LF	Cody Bellinger	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	5	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	6	3B	Ryan McMahon	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	7	SS	José Caballero	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	8	RF	Spencer Jones	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	9	C	J.C. Escarra	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	1	LF	Jackson Chourio	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	MIL	2	2B	Brice Turang	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	3	DH	William Contreras	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	4	C	Gary Sánchez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	5	1B	Andrew Vaughn	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	6	3B	Luis Rengifo	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	7	CF	Garrett Mitchell	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIL	8	RF	Blake Perkins	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	9	SS	Joey Ortiz	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	NYY	1	Carlos Rodón	Starter	3.2	1	1	1	1	3	0	0	0	2.45
current	NYY	2	Max Fried	Starter	4.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.91	0.95
current	NYY	3	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.31	1.41
current	NYY	4	Tim Hill	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	6.75	1.10	0.80
current	NYY	5	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	9.00	1.71	1.24
current	NYY	6	Camilo Doval	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	13.50	6.14	1.23
current	NYY	7	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.21	1.64
current	MIL	1	Logan Henderson	Starter	5.2	3	3	3	3	5	1	0	0	4.76	4.50	0.88
current	MIL	2	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	4.05	1.05
current	MIL	3	DL Hall	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.50	1.17
current	MIL	4	Grant Anderson	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	6.75	3.18	1.06
current	MIL	5	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.46	1.15
current	MIL	6	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	0.2	3	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	13.50	2.16	1.32
simulation	NYY	1	Carlos Rodón	Starter	3.2	1	1	1	1	3	0	17	77	2.45
simulation	NYY	2	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	15	0.00	3.31	1.41
simulation	NYY	3	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	12	0.00	3.21	1.64
simulation	NYY	4	Tim Hill	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	1	2	1	6	26	6.75	1.10	0.80
simulation	NYY	5	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	2	1	0	6	26	9.00	1.71	1.24
simulation	MIL	1	Logan Henderson	Starter	5.2	3	3	3	3	5	1	24	109	4.76	4.50	0.88
simulation	MIL	2	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	16	0.00	4.05	1.05
simulation	MIL	3	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	0.2	3	1	1	0	1	1	6	24	13.50	2.16	1.32
simulation	MIL	4	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	0	0	0	1	0	5	18	0.00	3.46	1.15

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
NYY	Carlos Rodón	Starter	3.2	1	1	1	3	17	77
NYY	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	2	3	15
NYY	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	3	12
NYY	Tim Hill	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	2	6	26
NYY	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	2	1	6	26
MIL	Logan Henderson	Starter	5.2	3	3	3	5	24	109
MIL	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	3	3	16
MIL	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	3	0	1	6	24
MIL	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	2	0	1	5	18

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260510_OAK@BAL

20260510_OAK@BAL.json • 2026-05-10

OAK 6 - BAL 1

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 89INFO 9

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Prediction target vs final simulation drift The inning simulation can vary from ML target, but large drift should be reviewed or explicitly documented as acceptable variance.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 5-4, final 6-1 (delta 4).

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score				TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 5-4, final 6-1 (delta 4).

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 5-4, final 6-1 (delta 4).
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=12, sim=10; R: current=8, sim=6; ER: current=8, sim=6; SO: current=11, sim=7).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Weston Wilson: AB current=3 box=4; Adley Rutschman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Blaze Alexander: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Samuel Basallo: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2; Taylor Ward: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: AB current=3 box=4		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=8, sim=7; R: current=2, sim=1; ER: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=12, sim=10).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=37; 2B: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=7).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shea Langeliers: H current=2 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Tyler Soderstrom: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jacob Wilson: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Kurtz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Carlos Cortes: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: SO current=1 box=0; Brent Rooker: RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match OAK pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match OAK pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=36 matches OAK BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match BAL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match BAL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match BAL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=38 matches BAL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.561.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.561.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.439.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.4.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.284/0.667.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 10, BAL 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 6 - BAL 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: OAK.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for OAK; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'opponent_team': 'BAL', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'OAK'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'confidence': 0.7038617647577383, 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260509_OAK@BAL.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'confidence': 0.6204802768460298, 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260508_OAK@BAL.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'OAK', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'OAK', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'OAK 5 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'OAK'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'OAK 6 - 1 BAL', 'winner': 'OAK'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -3, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_OAK@BAL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@BAL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 5 - 4 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 6 - 1 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: OAK wins 6-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=OAK, final=OAK.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.561.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: OAK wins 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: OAK wins 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: OAK wins 6-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 12/40 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 13/39 = 0.333.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match OAK pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match OAK pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=36 matches OAK BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match BAL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match BAL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match BAL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=38 matches BAL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.561.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.561.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.439.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.4.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.284/0.667.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 10, BAL 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 6 - BAL 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: OAK.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for OAK; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'opponent_team': 'BAL', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'OAK'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'OAK'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'confidence': 0.7038617647577383, 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260509_OAK@BAL.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'confidence': 0.6204802768460298, 'actual_winner': 'OAK', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260508_OAK@BAL.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'OAK', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'OAK', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'OAK 5 - 4 BAL', 'winner': 'OAK'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'OAK 6 - 1 BAL', 'winner': 'OAK'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -3, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_OAK@BAL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@BAL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 5 - 4 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 6 - 1 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: OAK wins 6-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=OAK, final=OAK.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.561.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: OAK wins 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: OAK wins 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: OAK wins 6-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 12/40 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 13/39 = 0.333.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=12, sim=10; R: current=8, sim=6; ER: current=8, sim=6; SO: current=11, sim=7).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Weston Wilson: AB current=3 box=4; Adley Rutschman: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Pete Alonso: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Blaze Alexander: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Samuel Basallo: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=5 box=4, H current=1 box=2; Taylor Ward: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Leody Taveras: AB current=3 box=4	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=8, sim=7; R: current=2, sim=1; ER: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=12, sim=10).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=36, sim=37; 2B: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=7).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Shea Langeliers: H current=2 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Lawrence Butler: R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Tyler Soderstrom: RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jacob Wilson: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Kurtz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Carlos Cortes: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Zack Gelof: SO current=1 box=0; Brent Rooker: RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.248459339141846	2.8067715167999268		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	3		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.561	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	1		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	6	10
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	OAK	batting	36	10	0	0	6	6	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		8				2	2	12					10.0	2	0	0
current	BAL	batting	33	9	0	0	3	4	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	BAL	pitching		12				8	1	11					11.0	8	0	0
simulation	OAK	batting	37	10	1	0	6	6	1	7	0	0
simulation	OAK	pitching		7				1	2	10					9.0	1	36	156
simulation	BAL	batting	34	7	2	0	1	1	2	10	0	0
simulation	BAL	pitching		10				6	1	7					9.0	6	38	153

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	OAK		C	Shea Langeliers	0	4	2	0	1	1	0	1	0.500
current	OAK		CF	Lawrence Butler	0	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	OAK		LF	Tyler Soderstrom	0	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	OAK		SS	Jacob Wilson	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		1B	Nick Kurtz	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	OAK		RF	Carlos Cortes	0	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		3B	Zack Gelof	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		DH	Brent Rooker	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		2B	Jeff McNeil	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	BAL		3B	Weston Wilson	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		DH	Adley Rutschman	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	BAL		1B	Pete Alonso	0	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	BAL		2B	Blaze Alexander	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		C	Samuel Basallo	0	4	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	BAL		SS	Gunnar Henderson	0	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
current	BAL		LF	Taylor Ward	0	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	BAL		CF	Leody Taveras	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BAL		RF	Dylan Beavers	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	OAK	1	1B	Nick Kurtz	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	2	0.400
simulation	OAK	2	C	Shea Langeliers	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	OAK	3	DH	Brent Rooker	4	4	1	0	1	2	0	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	4	LF	Tyler Soderstrom	4	4	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	5	SS	Jacob Wilson	4	4	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	6	RF	Carlos Cortes	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	OAK	7	CF	Lawrence Butler	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	OAK	8	3B	Zack Gelof	4	4	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	9	2B	Jeff McNeil	4	4	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.750
simulation	BAL	1	SS	Gunnar Henderson	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	1	0.500
simulation	BAL	2	LF	Taylor Ward	4	4	1	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	3	DH	Adley Rutschman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	BAL	4	1B	Pete Alonso	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	5	C	Samuel Basallo	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	6	CF	Leody Taveras	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	7	RF	Dylan Beavers	4	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	BAL	8	3B	Weston Wilson	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	BAL	9	2B	Blaze Alexander	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	OAK	1	Luis Severino	Starter	4.1	4	0	0	1	7	0	0	0.00	4.15	1.48
current	OAK	2	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.2	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	5.40	2.61	1.65
current	OAK	3	Scott Barlow	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.00	1.45	0.64
current	OAK	4	Jack Perkins	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	4.11	1.24
current	OAK	5	Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	9.00	8.62	1.91
current	OAK	6	Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.84	0.95
current	BAL	1	Keegan Akin	Starter	5.1	9	5	5	1	3	0	0	8.44	11.12	1.94
current	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	5.40	12.71	2.82
current	BAL	3	Anthony Nunez	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	6.75	3.00	0.94
current	BAL	4	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.53	0.41
current	BAL	5	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.00	1.29	0.50
current	BAL	6	Dietrich Enns	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	13.50	2.00	1.44
simulation	OAK	1	Luis Severino	Starter	4.1	4	0	0	1	7	20	97	0.00	4.15	1.48
simulation	OAK	2	Jack Perkins	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	4	14	0.00	4.11	1.24
simulation	OAK	3	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.2	2	1	1	1	0	6	21	5.40	2.61	1.65
simulation	OAK	4	Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	1.84	0.95
simulation	OAK	5	Scott Barlow	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	3	13	0.00	1.45	0.64
simulation	BAL	1	Keegan Akin	Starter	5.1	9	5	5	1	3	28	109	8.44	11.12	1.94
simulation	BAL	2	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	0.53	0.41
simulation	BAL	3	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	3	16	0.00	1.29	0.50
simulation	BAL	4	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	1	1	0	2	4	17	5.40	12.71	2.82

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
OAK	Luis Severino	Starter	4.1	0	4	1	7	20	97
OAK	Jack Perkins	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	14
OAK	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	2	1	0	6	21
OAK	Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	0	3	11
OAK	Scott Barlow	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	2	3	13
BAL	Keegan Akin	Starter	5.1	5	9	1	3	28	109
BAL	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	11
BAL	Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	16
BAL	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	1	0	2	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	warning	1	0	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260510_PIT@SF

20260510_PIT@SF.json • 2026-05-10

PIT 4 - SF 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 92INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Oneil Cruz: R current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nick Yorke: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Konnor Griffin: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Henry Davis: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Spencer Horwitz: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Marcell Ozuna: H current=1 box=0; Ryan O'Hearn: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=0, sim=3).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jung Hoo Lee: R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Rafael Devers: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Willy Adames: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Matt Chapman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Casey Schmitt: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Drew Gilbert: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jesus Rodriguez: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match SF pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match SF pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=38 matches SF BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match PIT pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match PIT pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=33 matches PIT BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.4.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.263/0.625.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PIT 8, SF 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PIT 4 - SF 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PIT; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'SF'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.7659674416566848, 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260509_PIT@SF.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.6554358179905084, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260508_PIT@SF.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'PIT', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_PIT@SF.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PIT@SF.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 121.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 121.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PIT 4 - 3 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PIT 4 - 3 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=PIT, final=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 12/40 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 8/39 = 0.205.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match SF pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match SF pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=38 matches SF BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match PIT pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match PIT pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=33 matches PIT BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.4.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.263/0.625.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PIT 8, SF 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PIT 4 - SF 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PIT; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'SF'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.7659674416566848, 'actual_winner': 'SF', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260509_PIT@SF.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.6554358179905084, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260508_PIT@SF.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'PIT', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PIT', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 3 SF', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_PIT@SF.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PIT@SF.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 121.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 121.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PIT 4 - 3 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PIT 4 - 3 SF.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=PIT, final=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 12/40 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 8/39 = 0.205.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=4; R: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=9, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Oneil Cruz: R current=1 box=0; Brandon Lowe: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nick Yorke: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Konnor Griffin: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Henry Davis: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Spencer Horwitz: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Marcell Ozuna: H current=1 box=0; Ryan O'Hearn: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=2, sim=3; R: current=0, sim=3).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jung Hoo Lee: R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Rafael Devers: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Willy Adames: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Matt Chapman: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Casey Schmitt: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Drew Gilbert: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Luis Arraez: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Jesus Rodriguez: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.149281978607178	2.073209524154663		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	2		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.560	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	4	8
SF	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	3	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	PIT	batting	35	8	0	0	0	3	3	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	PIT	pitching		6			1		3	0	6					9.0	3	0	0
current	SF	batting	34	9	0	0	0	2	0	0	6	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		8			1		4	2	8					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	PIT	batting	35	8	2	0	1	4	4	2	8	0	1
simulation	PIT	pitching		6			1		3	0	6					9.0	3	33	121
simulation	SF	batting	33	6	1	0	1	3	3	0	6	0	0
simulation	SF	pitching		8			1		4	2	8					9.0	4	38	155

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	PIT		CF	Oneil Cruz	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.200
current	PIT		2B	Brandon Lowe	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		LF	Nick Yorke	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		SS	Konnor Griffin	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		C	Henry Davis	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	PIT		1B	Spencer Horwitz	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.333
current	PIT		DH	Marcell Ozuna	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		3B	Nick Gonzales	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		RF	Ryan O'Hearn	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	SF		LF	Heliot Ramos	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		DH	Rafael Devers	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		SS	Willy Adames	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		3B	Matt Chapman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		1B	Casey Schmitt	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SF		CF	Drew Gilbert	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	SF		2B	Luis Arraez	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	SF		C	Jesus Rodriguez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	1	CF	Oneil Cruz	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	PIT	2	2B	Brandon Lowe	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	3	3B	Nick Gonzales	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	4	RF	Ryan O'Hearn	4	3	2	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	PIT	5	DH	Marcell Ozuna	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	6	1B	Spencer Horwitz	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	7	SS	Konnor Griffin	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	PIT	8	LF	Nick Yorke	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	PIT	9	C	Henry Davis	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	SF	1	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SF	2	2B	Luis Arraez	4	4	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	SF	3	1B	Casey Schmitt	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	4	DH	Rafael Devers	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SF	5	LF	Heliot Ramos	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SF	6	SS	Willy Adames	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SF	7	3B	Matt Chapman	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	SF	8	CF	Drew Gilbert	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	9	C	Jesus Rodriguez	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	PIT	1	Bubba Chandler	Starter	3.1	4	3	3	0	4	1	0	0	8.10	4.76	1.50
current	PIT	2	Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.78	1.26
current	PIT	3	Isaac Mattson	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.71	1.41
current	PIT	4	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.09	1.27
current	PIT	5	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.21	1.43
current	PIT	6	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.42	0.68
current	SF	1	Tyler Mahle	Starter	4.1	4	2	2	1	5	1	0	0	4.15	5.00	1.53
current	SF	2	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0.00	1.59	1.12
current	SF	3	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.76	0.80
current	SF	4	Matt Gage	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	1.12	1.19
current	SF	5	Ryan Walker	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	6.46	1.89
simulation	PIT	1	Bubba Chandler	Starter	3.1	4	3	3	0	4	1	16	61	8.10	4.76	1.50
simulation	PIT	2	Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	11	0.00	3.78	1.26
simulation	PIT	3	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	1.42	0.68
simulation	PIT	4	Isaac Mattson	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.71	1.41
simulation	PIT	5	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	16	0.00	3.21	1.43
simulation	PIT	6	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	9	0.00	4.09	1.27
simulation	SF	1	Tyler Mahle	Starter	4.1	4	2	2	1	5	1	20	77	4.15	5.00	1.53
simulation	SF	2	Ryan Walker	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	0	6	24	9.00	6.46	1.89
simulation	SF	3	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	10	0.00	2.76	0.80
simulation	SF	4	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	3	0	4	23	0.00	1.59	1.12
simulation	SF	5	Matt Gage	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	5	21	9.00	1.12	1.19

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
PIT	Bubba Chandler	Starter	3.1	3	4	0	4	16	61
PIT	Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	3	11
PIT	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	3	11
PIT	Isaac Mattson	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	3	13
PIT	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	2	0	0	5	16
PIT	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	9
SF	Tyler Mahle	Starter	4.1	2	4	1	5	20	77
SF	Ryan Walker	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	3	0	0	6	24
SF	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	10
SF	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	1	3	4	23
SF	Matt Gage	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	5	21

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260510_SEA@CHW

20260510_SEA@CHW.json • 2026-05-10

SEA 5 - CHW 1

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 20.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 2PASS 90INFO 7

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Prediction target vs final simulation drift The inning simulation can vary from ML target, but large drift should be reviewed or explicitly documented as acceptable variance.	0C / 0E / 2W	-	Final total runs 6 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 10.3 by more than 4. Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 4-3, final 5-1 (delta 3).

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	enhanced_prediction				LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 10.3 by more than 4.
WARN	score				TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 4-3, final 5-1 (delta 3).

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 6 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 10.3 by more than 4.
WARN	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score drifted from enhanced target: target 4-3, final 5-1 (delta 3).
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=10).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Chase Meidroth: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Drew Romo: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Randal Grichuk: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jarred Kelenic: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Sam Antonacci: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=14).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brendan Donovan: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Luke Raley: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cole Young: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Randy Arozarena: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=4; Cal Raleigh: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; J.P. Crawford: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Naylor: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match SEA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match SEA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match SEA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=34 matches SEA BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match CHW pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match CHW pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 14.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=43 matches CHW BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 11, CHW 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 5 - CHW 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SEA; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'SEA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'confidence': 0.56, 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 5, 'path': '20260509_SEA@CHW.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'confidence': 0.6273139261332243, 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260508_SEA@CHW.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'SEA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'SEA 4 - 3 CHW', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 1 CHW', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_SEA@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@CHW.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 186.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 186.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 4 - 3 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 5 - 1 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 5-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=SEA, final=SEA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SEA wins 5-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 5-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SEA wins 5-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 12/39 = 0.308.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 12/40 = 0.300.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match SEA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match SEA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match SEA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=34 matches SEA BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match CHW pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match CHW pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match CHW pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 14.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=43 matches CHW BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SEA 11, CHW 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SEA 5 - CHW 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: SEA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for SEA; cap=0.56, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'SEA', 'opponent_team': 'CHW', 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'CHW'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 12, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'SEA'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'confidence': 0.56, 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 5, 'path': '20260509_SEA@CHW.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'confidence': 0.6273139261332243, 'actual_winner': 'SEA', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260508_SEA@CHW.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'SEA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'SEA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'SEA 4 - 3 CHW', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 1, 'score_text': 'SEA 5 - 1 CHW', 'winner': 'SEA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_SEA@CHW.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SEA@CHW.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 186.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 186.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SEA 4 - 3 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SEA 5 - 1 CHW.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: SEA wins 5-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=SEA, final=SEA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: SEA wins 5-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: SEA wins 5-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 6.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: SEA wins 5-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 12/39 = 0.308.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 12/40 = 0.300.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=1; R: current=5, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=9, sim=10).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Chase Meidroth: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Drew Romo: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Randal Grichuk: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jarred Kelenic: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Miguel Vargas: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Colson Montgomery: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Sam Antonacci: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=11; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=3, sim=5; BB: current=1, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=14).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brendan Donovan: R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Luke Raley: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=4; Julio Rodríguez: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cole Young: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Randy Arozarena: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=4; Cal Raleigh: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; J.P. Crawford: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Josh Naylor: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.4692914485931396	4.03144645690918		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	1		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	5	11
CHW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SEA	batting	32	9	0	0	0	3	3	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	SEA	pitching		6			1		1	1	10					9.0	1	0	0
current	CHW	batting	32	9	0	0	0	4	5	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	CHW	pitching		11			1		5	5	14					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	SEA	batting	38	11	1	0	1	5	5	5	14	0	0
simulation	SEA	pitching		6			1		1	1	10					9.0	1	34	135
simulation	CHW	batting	33	6	2	0	1	1	1	1	10	0	0
simulation	CHW	pitching		11			1		5	5	14					9.0	5	43	186

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	SEA		3B	Brendan Donovan	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		RF	Luke Raley	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	SEA		CF	Julio Rodríguez	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		2B	Cole Young	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SEA		LF	Randy Arozarena	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		C	Cal Raleigh	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		SS	J.P. Crawford	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
current	SEA		1B	Josh Naylor	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	SEA		DH	Dominic Canzone	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		2B	Chase Meidroth	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		C	Drew Romo	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
current	CHW		DH	Randal Grichuk	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		RF	Jarred Kelenic	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	CHW		3B	Miguel Vargas	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	CHW		CF	Tristan Peters	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	CHW		SS	Colson Montgomery	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		LF	Sam Antonacci	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	CHW		1B	Munetaka Murakami	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	2	0.250
simulation	SEA	1	3B	Brendan Donovan	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	2	CF	Julio Rodríguez	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.200
simulation	SEA	3	1B	Josh Naylor	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	SEA	4	C	Cal Raleigh	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	1	1	0.500
simulation	SEA	5	LF	Randy Arozarena	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	0.000
simulation	SEA	6	RF	Luke Raley	5	5	3	0	1	1	4	0	1	0.600
simulation	SEA	7	SS	J.P. Crawford	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.250
simulation	SEA	8	DH	Dominic Canzone	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SEA	9	2B	Cole Young	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.500
simulation	CHW	1	LF	Sam Antonacci	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	CHW	2	1B	Munetaka Murakami	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	CHW	3	3B	Miguel Vargas	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	CHW	4	SS	Colson Montgomery	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CHW	5	2B	Chase Meidroth	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	CHW	6	RF	Jarred Kelenic	4	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	CHW	7	CF	Tristan Peters	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHW	8	DH	Randal Grichuk	3	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.667
simulation	CHW	9	C	Drew Romo	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SEA	1	Logan Gilbert	Starter	4.2	3	1	1	0	7	1	0	0	1.93	4.30	1.30
current	SEA	2	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.53	1.13
current	SEA	3	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0.00	6.00	1.40
current	SEA	4	Cooper Criswell	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.20	0.86
current	SEA	5	José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.89	1.32
current	CHW	1	Davis Martin	Starter	3.2	1	1	1	4	7	0	0	0	2.45	1.64	1.02
current	CHW	2	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	5.40	7.71	1.71
current	CHW	3	Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	1.1	3	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	6.75	13.50	3.00
current	CHW	4	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.54	1.63
current	CHW	5	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever	1.0	4	2	2	1	2	1	0	0	18.00	27.00	6.00
current	CHW	6	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.42	1.26
simulation	SEA	1	Logan Gilbert	Starter	4.2	3	1	1	0	7	1	18	72	1.93	4.30	1.30
simulation	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	3	0	5	25	0.00	6.00	1.40
simulation	SEA	3	José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	14	0.00	1.89	1.32
simulation	SEA	4	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	14	0.00	1.53	1.13
simulation	SEA	5	Cooper Criswell	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	10	0.00	2.20	0.86
simulation	CHW	1	Davis Martin	Starter	3.2	1	1	1	4	7	0	17	83	2.45	1.64	1.02
simulation	CHW	2	Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	1.1	3	1	1	0	2	0	6	20	6.75	13.50	3.00
simulation	CHW	3	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	16	0.00	1.42	1.26
simulation	CHW	4	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	1	1	0	1	0	4	15	5.40	7.71	1.71
simulation	CHW	5	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever	1.0	4	2	2	1	2	1	8	31	18.00	27.00	6.00
simulation	CHW	6	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	5	21	0.00	1.54	1.63

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SEA	Logan Gilbert	Starter	4.2	1	3	0	7	18	72
SEA	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	3	5	25
SEA	José A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	1	0	0	4	14
SEA	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	0	0	4	14
SEA	Cooper Criswell	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	10
CHW	Davis Martin	Starter	3.2	1	1	4	7	17	83
CHW	Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	3	0	2	6	20
CHW	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	3	16
CHW	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	1	0	1	4	15
CHW	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	4	1	2	8	31
CHW	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	1	5	21

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	warning	1	2	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	warning	1	0	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260510_STL@SD

20260510_STL@SD.json • 2026-05-10

STL 5 - SD 2

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 91INFO 8

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=8; R: current=6, sim=5; ER: current=6, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=8).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Xander Bogaerts: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Gavin Sheets: 2B current=0 box=1; Miguel Andujar: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Rodolfo Durán: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Fernando Tatis Jr.: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=2; Ty France: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: R current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Iván Herrera: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nolan Gorman: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Thomas Saggese: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; JJ Wetherholt: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Pedro Pagés: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Nathan Church: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match STL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match STL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match STL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=39 matches STL BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match SD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=39 matches SD BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.561.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.561.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.439.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.4.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.263/0.625.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 8, SD 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 5 - SD 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for STL; cap=0.58, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'STL', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'STL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.57325, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 6, 'path': '20260509_STL@SD.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.6781035679689627, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260508_STL@SD.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-07', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.6169149624859105, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260507_STL@SD.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'STL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'STL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 2 SD', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_STL@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@SD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 4 - 3 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 5 - 2 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=STL, final=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.561.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: STL wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 5-2 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 7/39 = 0.179.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 11/39 = 0.282.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match STL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match STL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match STL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=39 matches STL BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match SD pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match SD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=39 matches SD BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.561.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.561.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.439.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.4.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.263/0.625.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 8, SD 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 5 - SD 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for STL; cap=0.58, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'STL', 'opponent_team': 'SD', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'SD'}, {'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'STL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.57325, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 6, 'path': '20260509_STL@SD.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.6781035679689627, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260508_STL@SD.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-07', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.6169149624859105, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260507_STL@SD.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'STL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'STL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'STL 4 - 3 SD', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'STL 5 - 2 SD', 'winner': 'STL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_STL@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@SD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 4 - 3 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 5 - 2 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=STL, final=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.561.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: STL wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 5-2 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 7/39 = 0.179.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 11/39 = 0.282.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=9, sim=8; R: current=6, sim=5; ER: current=6, sim=5; SO: current=10, sim=8).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=35; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=1, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Xander Bogaerts: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=2; Gavin Sheets: 2B current=0 box=1; Miguel Andujar: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Rodolfo Durán: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Fernando Tatis Jr.: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: AB current=4 box=5, SO current=1 box=2; Ty France: R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Manny Machado: R current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=10, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Iván Herrera: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nolan Gorman: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Thomas Saggese: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; JJ Wetherholt: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Pedro Pagés: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Nathan Church: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	2.053485155105591	4.759097099304199		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	2	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	3	0.561	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	5	8
SD	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	STL	batting	35	8	0	0	0	3	4	2	10	0	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		8			1		2	4	5					10.0	2	0	0
current	SD	batting	34	8	0	0	0	2	2	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	SD	pitching		9			2		6	3	10					10.0	6	0	0
simulation	STL	batting	35	8	1	0	2	5	5	3	8	0	1
simulation	STL	pitching		8			1		2	4	5					9.0	2	39	158
simulation	SD	batting	35	8	2	0	1	2	2	4	5	0	0
simulation	SD	pitching		8			2		5	3	8					9.0	5	39	158

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	STL		RF	Jordan Walker	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	STL		DH	Iván Herrera	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	STL		3B	Nolan Gorman	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
current	STL		LF	Thomas Saggese	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		2B	JJ Wetherholt	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		1B	Alec Burleson	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		C	Pedro Pagés	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	STL		CF	Nathan Church	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		SS	Masyn Winn	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		SS	Xander Bogaerts	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		LF	Gavin Sheets	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		DH	Miguel Andujar	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		C	Rodolfo Durán	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	SD		RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		CF	Jackson Merrill	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		1B	Ty France	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		3B	Manny Machado	0	4	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	SD		2B	Sung-Mun Song	0	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	STL	1	2B	JJ Wetherholt	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	STL	2	DH	Iván Herrera	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	STL	3	1B	Alec Burleson	5	5	3	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.600
simulation	STL	4	RF	Jordan Walker	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	STL	5	3B	Nolan Gorman	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	STL	6	SS	Masyn Winn	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	STL	7	CF	Nathan Church	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	STL	8	LF	Thomas Saggese	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	STL	9	C	Pedro Pagés	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	SD	1	CF	Jackson Merrill	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	SD	2	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	SD	3	3B	Manny Machado	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	4	LF	Gavin Sheets	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	SD	5	SS	Xander Bogaerts	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.000
simulation	SD	6	DH	Miguel Andujar	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	SD	7	1B	Ty France	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SD	8	2B	Sung-Mun Song	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	9	C	Rodolfo Durán	4	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	STL	1	Kyle Leahy	Starter	4.1	5	2	2	3	3	0	0	0	4.15	4.93	1.64
current	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.00	0.89
current	STL	3	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0.00	3.31	1.16
current	STL	4	Gordon Graceffo	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.74	0.87
current	STL	5	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.50	1.22
current	STL	6	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	6.75	1.94
current	SD	1	Walker Buehler	Starter	4.1	3	2	2	2	5	0	0	0	4.15	5.64	1.52
current	SD	2	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5.66	1.31
current	SD	3	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	13.50	0.96	0.64
current	SD	4	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	9.00	1.93	1.07
current	SD	5	Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	9.00	1.50	0.83
current	SD	6	Jeremiah Estrada	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.22	1.03
simulation	STL	1	Kyle Leahy	Starter	4.1	5	2	2	3	3	0	23	90	4.15	4.93	1.64
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	2.00	0.89
simulation	STL	3	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	3.50	1.22
simulation	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	5	22	0.00	6.75	1.94
simulation	STL	5	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	1	5	24	0.00	3.31	1.16
simulation	SD	1	Walker Buehler	Starter	4.1	3	2	2	2	5	0	20	88	4.15	5.64	1.52
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	1	5	17	13.50	0.96	0.64
simulation	SD	3	Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	1	7	26	9.00	1.50	0.83
simulation	SD	4	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	14	0.00	5.66	1.31
simulation	SD	5	Jeremiah Estrada	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	4.22	1.03

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
STL	Kyle Leahy	Starter	4.1	2	5	3	3	23	90
STL	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	3	11
STL	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	11
STL	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	5	22
STL	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	2	5	24
SD	Walker Buehler	Starter	4.1	2	3	2	5	20	88
SD	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	0	1	5	17
SD	Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	1	1	7	26
SD	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	0	4	14
SD	Jeremiah Estrada	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260510_TB@BOS

20260510_TB@BOS.json • 2026-05-10

TB 1 - BOS 4

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 10.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 1PASS 91INFO 8

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Prediction target vs final simulation drift The inning simulation can vary from ML target, but large drift should be reviewed or explicitly documented as acceptable variance.	0C / 0E / 1W	-	Final total runs 5 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 9.9 by more than 4.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	enhanced_prediction				LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 9.9 by more than 4.

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 differs from low-score expected_total_runs 9.9 by more than 4.
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (SO: current=12, sim=9).		New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=5).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mickey Gasper: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Wilyer Abreu: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Masataka Yoshida: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Trevor Story: H current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Caleb Durbin: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ceddanne Rafaela: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: RBI current=1 box=0; Willson Contreras: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=6; RBI: current=2, sim=1; R: current=3, sim=1; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ryan Vilade: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0; Nick Fortes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ben Williamson: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cedric Mullins: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: RBI current=0 box=1; Taylor Walls: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match TB pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=32 matches TB BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match BOS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match BOS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match BOS pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=35 matches BOS BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.412/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 6, BOS 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 1 - BOS 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'opponent_team': 'TB', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-05-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'TB'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.56, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260509_TB@BOS.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.629251778060636, 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260508_TB@BOS.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-07', 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'confidence': 0.5392620519168427, 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260507_TB@BOS.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TB 1 - 3 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 1 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_TB@BOS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@BOS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 134.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 134.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 1 - 3 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 1 - 4 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 4-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=BOS, final=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 4-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 1-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 1-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 1-3, final 1-4 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 4-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 10/39 = 0.256.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 15/38 = 0.395.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match TB pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=32 matches TB BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match BOS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match BOS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match BOS pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=35 matches BOS BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.412/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 6, BOS 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 1 - BOS 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'opponent_team': 'TB', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-05-07', 'predicted_team_runs': 8, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'TB'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.56, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260509_TB@BOS.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.629251778060636, 'actual_winner': 'BOS', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260508_TB@BOS.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-07', 'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'confidence': 0.5392620519168427, 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260507_TB@BOS.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'TB 1 - 3 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 1, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TB 1 - 4 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 1, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_TB@BOS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@BOS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 134.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 134.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 1 - 3 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 1 - 4 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 4-1.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=BOS, final=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 4-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 1-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 1-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 1-3, final 1-4 (delta 1).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 4-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 10/39 = 0.256.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 15/38 = 0.395.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (SO: current=12, sim=9).	New contract: model pitcher projections may differ; simulation_box_score_stats carries the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=35, sim=30; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=0, sim=2; R: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=5).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Mickey Gasper: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Wilyer Abreu: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Masataka Yoshida: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Trevor Story: H current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Caleb Durbin: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Ceddanne Rafaela: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jarren Duran: RBI current=1 box=0; Willson Contreras: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=9, sim=6; RBI: current=2, sim=1; R: current=3, sim=1; BB: current=1, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=9).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ryan Vilade: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0; Nick Fortes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ben Williamson: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cedric Mullins: AB current=4 box=3, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: RBI current=0 box=1; Taylor Walls: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.7059216499328613	5.715541839599609		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	6		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	1	3	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	1	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	1	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	6
BOS	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	4	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TB	batting	33	9	0	0	0	2	3	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	TB	pitching		6			2		4	2	5					8.0	4	0	0
current	BOS	batting	35	9	0	0	0	4	3	2	10	0	0	0	0
current	BOS	pitching		6			0		1	2	12					10.1	1	0	0
simulation	TB	batting	33	6	0	0	0	1	1	2	9	0	0
simulation	TB	pitching		6			2		4	2	5					8.0	4	32	134
simulation	BOS	batting	30	6	1	0	2	4	4	2	5	0	0
simulation	BOS	pitching		6			0		1	2	9					9.0	1	35	141

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	TB		LF	Chandler Simpson	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	TB		1B	Ryan Vilade	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.333
current	TB		C	Nick Fortes	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	TB		DH	Yandy Díaz	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	TB		2B	Ben Williamson	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	TB		CF	Cedric Mullins	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	TB		3B	Junior Caminero	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.250
current	TB		RF	Jonny DeLuca	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	TB		SS	Taylor Walls	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	BOS		C	Mickey Gasper	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.250
current	BOS		RF	Wilyer Abreu	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	BOS		DH	Masataka Yoshida	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	BOS		SS	Trevor Story	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
current	BOS		3B	Caleb Durbin	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	BOS		CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	BOS		LF	Jarren Duran	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	BOS		1B	Willson Contreras	0	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	BOS		2B	Marcelo Mayer	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	TB	1	LF	Chandler Simpson	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	TB	2	3B	Junior Caminero	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TB	3	2B	Ben Williamson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	TB	4	DH	Yandy Díaz	4	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.667
simulation	TB	5	1B	Ryan Vilade	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	TB	6	CF	Cedric Mullins	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	TB	7	RF	Jonny DeLuca	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	TB	8	C	Nick Fortes	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TB	9	SS	Taylor Walls	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	BOS	1	LF	Jarren Duran	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	BOS	2	1B	Willson Contreras	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	3	RF	Wilyer Abreu	4	3	2	0	1	1	2	1	1	0.667
simulation	BOS	4	DH	Masataka Yoshida	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	5	SS	Trevor Story	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	6	C	Mickey Gasper	3	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.333
simulation	BOS	7	2B	Marcelo Mayer	3	3	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.333
simulation	BOS	8	CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	BOS	9	3B	Caleb Durbin	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TB	1	Nick Martinez	Starter	3.1	4	2	2	1	2	2	0	0	5.40	1.71	1.02
current	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	6.75	2.45	0.82
current	TB	3	Cole Sulser	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.61	1.31
current	TB	4	Ian Seymour	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.55	1.08
current	TB	5	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	13.50	5.79	2.14
current	BOS	1	Payton Tolle	Starter	4.1	4	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	2.04	0.74
current	BOS	2	Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	5.40	4.91	1.43
current	BOS	3	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	0.71	0.79
current	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.52	1.24
current	BOS	5	Jovani Morán	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	2.66	1.13
current	BOS	6	Zack Kelly	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.29	1.17
simulation	TB	1	Nick Martinez	Starter	3.1	4	2	2	1	2	2	17	71	5.40	1.71	1.02
simulation	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	1	1	1	0	0	6	26	6.75	2.45	0.82
simulation	TB	3	Cole Sulser	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	10	0.00	2.61	1.31
simulation	TB	4	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	1	1	0	1	0	3	14	13.50	5.79	2.14
simulation	TB	5	Ian Seymour	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.55	1.08
simulation	BOS	1	Payton Tolle	Starter	4.1	4	0	0	0	3	0	19	70	0.00	2.04	0.74
simulation	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	3	0	4	17	0.00	0.71	0.79
simulation	BOS	3	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	10	0.00	3.52	1.24
simulation	BOS	4	Zack Kelly	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	14	0.00	3.29	1.17
simulation	BOS	5	Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	1	1	2	2	0	6	30	5.40	4.91	1.43

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TB	Nick Martinez	Starter	3.1	2	4	1	2	17	71
TB	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	2	1	0	6	26
TB	Cole Sulser	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	10
TB	Garrett Cleavinger	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	0	0	1	3	14
TB	Ian Seymour	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	13
BOS	Payton Tolle	Starter	4.1	0	4	0	3	19	70
BOS	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	3	4	17
BOS	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	10
BOS	Zack Kelly	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	1	3	14
BOS	Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	1	2	2	6	30

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	0	1	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	0	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	warning	1	2	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	0	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260510_WAS@MIA

20260510_WAS@MIA.json • 2026-05-10

WAS 3 - MIA 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 93INFO 7

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=2).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Joe Mack: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Owen Caissie: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Christopher Morel: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Javier Sanoja: AB current=3 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Xavier Edwards: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jakob Marsee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=6).		New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luis García Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brady House: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jorbit Vivas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Drew Millas: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; James Wood: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jacob Young: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2		New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match WAS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match WAS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match WAS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=37 matches WAS BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match MIA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match MIA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match MIA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=38 matches MIA BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.4.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.284/0.667.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 5, MIA 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 3 - MIA 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIA; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'opponent_team': 'WAS', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'WAS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260509_WAS@MIA.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.6603524858726488, 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260508_WAS@MIA.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'MIA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'WAS 4 - 5 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 3 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_WAS@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@MIA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 150.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 150.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 4 - 5 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 3 - 4 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIA, final=MIA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIA wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 3-4 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIA wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 12/40 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 14/40 = 0.350.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match WAS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match WAS pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match WAS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=37 matches WAS BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match MIA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match MIA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match MIA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=38 matches MIA BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 10.4.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.284/0.667.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 5, MIA 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 3 - MIA 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIA.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIA; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'opponent_team': 'WAS', 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'WAS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-09', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.64, 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260509_WAS@MIA.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-08', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.6603524858726488, 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260508_WAS@MIA.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'MIA', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIA', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'WAS 4 - 5 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'WAS 3 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'MIA'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-10.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260510_WAS@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@MIA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 150.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 150.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 4 - 5 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 3 - 4 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIA wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIA, final=MIA.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIA wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIA wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 3-4 (delta 2).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIA wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs preserves the pre-simulation model target; game.simulation_runs carries scoring_simulation.final_score.		New contract: predicted_runs may differ, simulation_runs must match scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 12/40 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 14/40 = 0.350.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Expected
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=9, sim=7; 2B: current=0, sim=2; RBI: current=3, sim=4; BB: current=0, sim=4; SO: current=8, sim=5; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Joe Mack: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Owen Caissie: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Christopher Morel: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Javier Sanoja: AB current=3 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Liam Hicks: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Xavier Edwards: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Jakob Marsee: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=9, sim=5; 2B: current=0, sim=2; HR: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=3; R: current=5, sim=3; BB: current=1, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=6).	New contract: model prediction totals may differ from scoring_simulation; simulation_stats_source links the simulation box score.
INFO	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luis García Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brady House: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jorbit Vivas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Drew Millas: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; James Wood: RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jacob Young: AB current=4 box=3, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2	New contract: compare model predictions separately; simulation_box_score_stats/scoring_simulation hold the simulation draw.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.2	4.4		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	3	5
MIA	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	WAS	batting	33	9	0	0	0	4	5	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	WAS	pitching		7			0		4	4	5					8.0	4	0	0
current	MIA	batting	32	9	0	0	0	3	4	0	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIA	pitching		5			1		3	6	6					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	WAS	batting	32	5	2	0	1	3	3	6	6	0	0
simulation	WAS	pitching		7			0		4	4	5					8.0	4	37	150
simulation	MIA	batting	31	7	2	0	0	4	4	4	5	0	2
simulation	MIA	pitching		5			1		3	6	6					9.0	3	38	168

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	WAS		1B	Luis García Jr.	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		3B	Brady House	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		2B	Jorbit Vivas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	WAS		C	Drew Millas	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	WAS		RF	James Wood	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		CF	Jacob Young	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		LF	Daylen Lile	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		DH	CJ Abrams	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		SS	Nasim Nuñez	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		C	Joe Mack	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		SS	Otto Lopez	0	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
current	MIA		RF	Owen Caissie	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	MIA		DH	Christopher Morel	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		3B	Javier Sanoja	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		1B	Liam Hicks	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		2B	Xavier Edwards	0	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	MIA		CF	Jakob Marsee	0	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	MIA		LF	Kyle Stowers	0	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	1	RF	James Wood	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	2	1B	Luis García Jr.	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	3	3B	Brady House	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	WAS	4	DH	CJ Abrams	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	5	LF	Daylen Lile	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	6	CF	Jacob Young	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	WAS	7	2B	Jorbit Vivas	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	8	C	Drew Millas	4	3	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	WAS	9	SS	Nasim Nuñez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	1	2B	Xavier Edwards	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	MIA	2	1B	Liam Hicks	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.667
simulation	MIA	3	SS	Otto Lopez	4	4	2	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	MIA	4	LF	Kyle Stowers	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	5	CF	Jakob Marsee	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	6	DH	Christopher Morel	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	7	RF	Owen Caissie	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	8	3B	Javier Sanoja	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	MIA	9	C	Joe Mack	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	WAS	1	Cade Cavalli	Starter	3.2	7	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	9.82	4.15	1.70
current	WAS	2	Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.55	1.18
current	WAS	3	Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.07	1.30
current	WAS	4	Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0.00	2.12	1.65
current	WAS	5	PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.38	1.39
current	MIA	1	Sandy Alcantara	Starter	4.1	2	2	2	3	5	1	0	0	4.15	4.01	1.28
current	MIA	2	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.86	1.57
current	MIA	3	Anthony Bender	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.30	1.30
current	MIA	4	Tyler Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	1.14	1.31
current	MIA	5	John King	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.54	0.54
simulation	WAS	1	Cade Cavalli	Starter	3.2	7	4	4	2	1	0	21	84	9.82	4.15	1.70
simulation	WAS	2	Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	19	0.00	3.07	1.30
simulation	WAS	3	PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	18	0.00	3.38	1.39
simulation	WAS	4	Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	7	0.00	3.55	1.18
simulation	WAS	5	Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	0	4	22	0.00	2.12	1.65
simulation	MIA	1	Sandy Alcantara	Starter	4.1	2	2	2	3	5	1	20	86	4.15	4.01	1.28
simulation	MIA	2	Tyler Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	0	4	17	9.00	1.14	1.31
simulation	MIA	3	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.2	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	22	0.00	3.86	1.57
simulation	MIA	4	John King	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	0	2	1	0	5	25	0.00	0.54	0.54
simulation	MIA	5	Anthony Bender	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	18	0.00	4.30	1.30

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
WAS	Cade Cavalli	Starter	3.2	4	7	2	1	21	84
WAS	Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	1	4	19
WAS	PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	5	18
WAS	Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	3	7
WAS	Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	3	4	22
MIA	Sandy Alcantara	Starter	4.1	2	2	3	5	20	86
MIA	Tyler Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	17
MIA	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	2	0	0	5	22
MIA	John King	Middle Reliever	0.2	0	0	2	1	5	25
MIA	Anthony Bender	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	0	4	18

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	info	2	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	info	0	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score unless model/simulation sources are separated.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs is either synced to simulation or paired with game.simulation_runs.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.