MLB JSON Audit Report

20260507_BAL@MIA

20260507_BAL@MIA.json • 2026-05-07

BAL 5 - MIA 2

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 96INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match MIA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match MIA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=44 matches MIA BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match BAL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match BAL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=35 matches BAL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.295/0.689.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 8, MIA 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 5 - MIA 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BAL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BAL; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'BAL'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'BAL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'confidence': 0.56, 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260506_BAL@MIA.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'confidence': 0.7069076360316886, 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260505_BAL@MIA.json'}]}, 'pre_final_sync_predicted_team': 'MIA', 'final_score_winner': 'BAL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 3 MIA', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 2 MIA', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_BAL@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@MIA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 191.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 191.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 5 - 2 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 5 - 2 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BAL wins 5-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=BAL, final=BAL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BAL wins 5-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BAL wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BAL wins 5-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 11/37 = 0.297.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 10/37 = 0.270.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match MIA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match MIA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match MIA pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=44 matches MIA BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match BAL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match BAL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match BAL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=35 matches BAL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.560.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.440.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.295/0.689.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 8, MIA 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 5 - MIA 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BAL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BAL; cap=0.56, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.56, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'BAL'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'BAL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 2, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'confidence': 0.56, 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260506_BAL@MIA.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'confidence': 0.7069076360316886, 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260505_BAL@MIA.json'}]}, 'pre_final_sync_predicted_team': 'MIA', 'final_score_winner': 'BAL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BAL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 3 MIA', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'BAL 5 - 2 MIA', 'winner': 'BAL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_BAL@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@MIA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 191.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 191.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 5 - 2 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 5 - 2 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BAL wins 5-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=BAL, final=BAL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.560.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BAL wins 5-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BAL wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BAL wins 5-2 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 11/37 = 0.297.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 10/37 = 0.270.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.880598306655884	5.2400431632995605		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	6		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	3	0.560	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	5	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
BAL	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	5	8
MIA	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	4

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	BAL	batting	37	8	3	0	1	5	5	5	10	1	1	0	0
current	BAL	pitching		4			1		2	1	6					10.0	2	0	0
current	MIA	batting	34	4	1	0	1	2	2	1	6	0	0	0	0
current	MIA	pitching		8			1		5	5	10					10.0	5	0	0
simulation	BAL	batting	37	8	3	0	1	5	5	5	10	1	1
simulation	BAL	pitching		4			1		2	1	6					10.0	2	35	135
simulation	MIA	batting	34	4	1	0	1	2	2	1	6	0	0
simulation	MIA	pitching		8			1		5	5	10					10.0	5	44	191

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	BAL		SS	Gunnar Henderson	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	BAL		RF	Tyler O'Neill	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.000
current	BAL		1B	Pete Alonso	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.250
current	BAL		CF	Colton Cowser	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	BAL		2B	Jeremiah Jackson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	BAL		LF	Dylan Beavers	5	5	2	1	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.400
current	BAL		C	Samuel Basallo	5	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	0.000
current	BAL		DH	Taylor Ward	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	BAL		3B	Coby Mayo	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.500
current	MIA		RF	Esteury Ruiz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	MIA		C	Liam Hicks	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	MIA		1B	Connor Norby	4	4	2	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
current	MIA		SS	Otto Lopez	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	MIA		CF	Jakob Marsee	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	MIA		3B	Javier Sanoja	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	MIA		DH	Christopher Morel	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	MIA		2B	Leo Jiménez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	MIA		LF	Heriberto Hernández	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	1	SS	Gunnar Henderson	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	BAL	2	DH	Taylor Ward	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	BAL	3	LF	Dylan Beavers	5	5	2	1	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	BAL	4	1B	Pete Alonso	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	BAL	5	C	Samuel Basallo	5	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	BAL	6	RF	Tyler O'Neill	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	7	CF	Colton Cowser	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	BAL	8	3B	Coby Mayo	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	BAL	9	2B	Jeremiah Jackson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	1	SS	Otto Lopez	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	2	1B	Connor Norby	4	4	2	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	MIA	3	C	Liam Hicks	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	4	DH	Christopher Morel	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	MIA	5	LF	Heriberto Hernández	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	6	RF	Esteury Ruiz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	7	CF	Jakob Marsee	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	8	2B	Leo Jiménez	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	9	3B	Javier Sanoja	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	BAL	1	Cade Povich	Starter	4.1	3	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0.00	4.41	1.29
current	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	15.75	3.00
current	BAL	3	Anthony Nunez	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.00	0.94
current	BAL	5	Keegan Akin	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	27.00	13.50	1.93
current	BAL	6	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.53	0.41
current	BAL	7	Lou Trivino	Reliever	1.2	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	5.40
current	MIA	1	Max Meyer	Starter	4.2	3	1	1	2	5	1	0	0	1.93	2.68	1.03
current	MIA	2	Andrew Nardi	Middle Reliever	1.1	3	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	20.25	6.23	1.69
current	MIA	3	Tyler Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.27	1.36
current	MIA	4	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.15	1.62
current	MIA	5	John King	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	0.57	0.51
current	MIA	6	Anthony Bender	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	13.50	4.61	1.39
simulation	BAL	1	Cade Povich	Starter	4.1	3	0	0	0	4	0	18	75	0.00	4.41	1.29
simulation	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	1	4	12	0.00	15.75	3.00
simulation	BAL	3	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	9	0.00	0.53	0.41
simulation	BAL	4	Anthony Nunez	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.00	0.94
simulation	BAL	5	Keegan Akin	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	1	1	0	0	0	3	7	27.00	13.50	1.93
simulation	BAL	6	Lou Trivino	Reliever	1.2	0	1	1	1	1	0	4	19	5.40	81.00	10.50
simulation	MIA	1	Max Meyer	Starter	4.2	3	1	1	2	5	1	21	90	1.93	2.68	1.03
simulation	MIA	2	Tyler Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	14	0.00	1.27	1.36
simulation	MIA	3	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	5	15	0.00	4.15	1.62
simulation	MIA	4	John King	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	17	0.00	0.57	0.51
simulation	MIA	5	Anthony Bender	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	1	1	0	5	24	13.50	4.61	1.39
simulation	MIA	6	Andrew Nardi	Middle Reliever	1.1	3	3	3	1	1	0	7	31	20.25	6.23	1.69

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
BAL	Cade Povich	Starter	4.1	0	3	0	4	18	75
BAL	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	0	0	4	12
BAL	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	3	9
BAL	Anthony Nunez	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	3	13
BAL	Keegan Akin	Middle Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	3	7
BAL	Lou Trivino	Reliever	1.2	1	0	1	1	4	19
MIA	Max Meyer	Starter	4.2	1	3	2	5	21	90
MIA	Tyler Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	14
MIA	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	5	15
MIA	John King	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	3	3	17
MIA	Anthony Bender	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	1	1	1	5	24
MIA	Andrew Nardi	Middle Reliever	1.1	3	3	1	1	7	31

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260507_CIN@CHC

20260507_CIN@CHC.json • 2026-05-07

CIN 3 - CHC 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 97INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match CIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match CIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match CIN pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=33 matches CIN BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match CHC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match CHC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match CHC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=39 matches CHC BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.318/0.736.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 5, CHC 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 3 - CHC 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-05-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.58, 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260506_CIN@CHC.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.7899380952380953, 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260505_CIN@CHC.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-04', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.7898762183235868, 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260504_CIN@CHC.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CIN 4 - 5 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'CIN 3 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_CIN@CHC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@CHC.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 174.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 174.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 3 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 3 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CHC, final=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-6, final 3-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 13/37 = 0.351.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 11/37 = 0.297.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match CIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match CIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match CIN pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=33 matches CIN BF=33.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match CHC pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match CHC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match CHC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=39 matches CHC BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.318/0.736.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 5, CHC 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 3 - CHC 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: CHC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for CHC; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'opponent_team': 'CIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHC'}, {'date': '2026-05-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'CHC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.58, 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260506_CIN@CHC.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.7899380952380953, 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260505_CIN@CHC.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-04', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.7898762183235868, 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260504_CIN@CHC.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'CHC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'CHC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'CIN 4 - 5 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'CIN 3 - 6 CHC', 'winner': 'CHC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_CIN@CHC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@CHC.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 142.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 174.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 174.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 142.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 3 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 3 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=CHC, final=CHC.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-6, final 3-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 13/37 = 0.351.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 11/37 = 0.297.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.7093453407287598	5.836733341217041		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	6		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.580	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	5
CHC	0	1	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	6	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CIN	batting	32	5	1	0	0	3	3	7	5	0	0	0	0
current	CIN	pitching		6			3		6	2	9					8.0	6	0	0
current	CHC	batting	30	6	1	0	3	6	6	2	9	0	1	0	0
current	CHC	pitching		5			0		3	7	5					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	CIN	batting	32	5	1	0	0	3	3	7	5	0	0
simulation	CIN	pitching		6			3		6	2	9					8.0	6	33	142
simulation	CHC	batting	30	6	1	0	3	6	6	2	9	0	1
simulation	CHC	pitching		5			0		3	7	5					9.0	3	39	174

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	CIN		RF	Blake Dunn	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
current	CIN		LF	JJ Bleday	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	CIN		3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
current	CIN		DH	Elly De La Cruz	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	CIN		1B	Spencer Steer	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
current	CIN		CF	Dane Myers	5	4	1	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	0.250
current	CIN		SS	Matt McLain	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.400
current	CIN		2B	Sal Stewart	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	CIN		C	Tyler Stephenson	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
current	CHC		2B	Nico Hoerner	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	CHC		RF	Michael Conforto	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.250
current	CHC		C	Miguel Amaya	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	CHC		CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	CHC		3B	Alex Bregman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	CHC		DH	Moisés Ballesteros	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0.000
current	CHC		LF	Ian Happ	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
current	CHC		1B	Michael Busch	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0.250
current	CHC		SS	Dansby Swanson	3	3	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.667
simulation	CIN	1	CF	Dane Myers	5	4	1	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	2	SS	Matt McLain	5	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	CIN	3	DH	Elly De La Cruz	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	4	2B	Sal Stewart	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	5	1B	Spencer Steer	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	6	C	Tyler Stephenson	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	7	LF	JJ Bleday	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	8	RF	Blake Dunn	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	CIN	9	3B	Ke'Bryan Hayes	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	1	2B	Nico Hoerner	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	2	DH	Moisés Ballesteros	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	CHC	3	3B	Alex Bregman	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	4	LF	Ian Happ	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	CHC	5	1B	Michael Busch	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	6	RF	Michael Conforto	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	7	SS	Dansby Swanson	3	3	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.667
simulation	CHC	8	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	9	C	Miguel Amaya	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CIN	1	Rhett Lowder	Starter	4.2	3	3	3	1	4	2	0	0	5.79	5.09	1.39
current	CIN	2	Graham Ashcraft	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.93	1.34
current	CIN	4	Connor Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.37	1.42
current	CIN	5	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	27.00	2.87	1.28
current	CHC	1	Shota Imanaga	Starter	4.2	2	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	0.00	2.40	0.85
current	CHC	2	Ben Brown	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.10	1.01
current	CHC	3	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.52	1.50
current	CHC	4	Hoby Milner	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.55	1.02
current	CHC	6	Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	3	3	2	1	0	0	0	40.50	8.64	1.80
simulation	CIN	1	Rhett Lowder	Starter	4.2	3	3	3	1	4	2	19	82	5.79	5.09	1.39
simulation	CIN	2	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	3	3	1	1	1	7	26	27.00	2.87	1.28
simulation	CIN	3	Graham Ashcraft	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	20	0.00	1.93	1.34
simulation	CIN	4	Connor Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	14	0.00	2.37	1.42
simulation	CHC	1	Shota Imanaga	Starter	4.2	2	0	0	3	3	0	20	93	0.00	2.40	0.85
simulation	CHC	2	Ben Brown	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	8	0.00	2.10	1.01
simulation	CHC	3	Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	3	3	2	1	0	7	32	40.50	8.64	1.80
simulation	CHC	4	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	3.52	1.50
simulation	CHC	5	Hoby Milner	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	24	0.00	2.55	1.02

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CIN	Rhett Lowder	Starter	4.2	3	3	1	4	19	82
CIN	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	1	1	7	26
CIN	Graham Ashcraft	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	2	4	20
CIN	Connor Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	14
CHC	Shota Imanaga	Starter	4.2	0	2	3	3	20	93
CHC	Ben Brown	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	8
CHC	Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	0.2	3	2	2	1	7	32
CHC	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	0	4	17
CHC	Hoby Milner	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	24

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260507_CLE@KC

20260507_CLE@KC.json • 2026-05-07

CLE 3 - KC 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 96INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match KC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match KC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=37 matches KC BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match CLE pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match CLE pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=38 matches CLE BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.416.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.584.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.584.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.318/0.736.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 5, KC 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 3 - KC 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: KC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for KC; cap=0.6, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'KC', 'opponent_team': 'CLE', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-05-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'KC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.53125, 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260506_CLE@KC.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.5546513078286546, 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260505_CLE@KC.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-04', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.5110000000000001, 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260504_CLE@KC.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'KC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'KC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_CLE@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@KC.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 163.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 163.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 3 - 4 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 3 - 4 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: KC wins 4-3.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.584.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: KC wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: KC wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: KC wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 13/38 = 0.342.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 12/37 = 0.324.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match KC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match KC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match KC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=37 matches KC BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match CLE pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match CLE pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=38 matches CLE BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.416.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.584.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.584.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.318/0.736.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 5, KC 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 3 - KC 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: KC.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for KC; cap=0.6, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'KC', 'opponent_team': 'CLE', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'CLE'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'KC'}, {'date': '2026-05-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'KC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.53125, 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260506_CLE@KC.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.5546513078286546, 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260505_CLE@KC.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-04', 'predicted_team': 'CLE', 'confidence': 0.5110000000000001, 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260504_CLE@KC.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'KC', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'KC', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 3, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'CLE 3 - 4 KC', 'winner': 'KC'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_CLE@KC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@KC.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 153.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 163.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 153.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 163.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 3 - 4 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 3 - 4 KC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: KC wins 4-3.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.584.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: KC wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: KC wins 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-4, final 3-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: KC wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 13/38 = 0.342.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 12/37 = 0.324.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.128053665161133	4.775859832763672		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.584	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	3	5
KC	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CLE	batting	32	5	2	0	1	3	3	5	6	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		10			1		4	4	7					8.0	4	0	0
current	KC	batting	32	10	1	0	1	4	4	4	7	2	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		5			1		3	5	6					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	CLE	batting	32	5	2	0	1	3	3	5	6	0	0
simulation	CLE	pitching		10			1		4	4	7					8.0	4	38	153
simulation	KC	batting	32	10	1	0	1	4	4	4	7	2	0
simulation	KC	pitching		5			1		3	5	6					9.0	3	37	163

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	CLE		1B	Kyle Manzardo	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
current	CLE		DH	José Ramírez	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
current	CLE		RF	Chase DeLauter	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	CLE		LF	Steven Kwan	5	5	2	1	1	1	1	0	1	0.400
current	CLE		C	Bo Naylor	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	CLE		2B	Travis Bazzana	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	CLE		CF	Petey Halpin	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
current	CLE		3B	Daniel Schneemann	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	2	1	0.000
current	KC		LF	Isaac Collins	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	KC		CF	Kyle Isbel	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	KC		DH	Salvador Perez	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.000
current	KC		RF	Jac Caglianone	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
current	KC		SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	5	4	3	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.750
current	KC		2B	Michael Massey	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	KC		1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	KC		3B	Maikel Garcia	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.200
current	KC		C	Carter Jensen	4	2	2	0	0	1	0	2	0	1.000
simulation	CLE	1	LF	Steven Kwan	5	5	2	1	1	1	1	0	1	0.400
simulation	CLE	2	RF	Chase DeLauter	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	3	DH	José Ramírez	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	4	1B	Kyle Manzardo	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	CLE	5	3B	Daniel Schneemann	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	2	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	6	2B	Travis Bazzana	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	7	SS	Brayan Rocchio	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CLE	8	C	Bo Naylor	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CLE	9	CF	Petey Halpin	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	KC	1	3B	Maikel Garcia	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.200
simulation	KC	2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	5	4	3	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.750
simulation	KC	3	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	KC	4	DH	Salvador Perez	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	KC	5	C	Carter Jensen	4	2	2	0	0	1	0	2	0	1.000
simulation	KC	6	RF	Jac Caglianone	4	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	KC	7	LF	Isaac Collins	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	KC	8	2B	Michael Massey	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	KC	9	CF	Kyle Isbel	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CLE	1	Slade Cecconi	Starter	4.1	7	2	2	2	4	0	0	0	4.15	6.56	1.57
current	CLE	2	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.25	0.88
current	CLE	3	Matt Festa	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	2	2	2	1	0	0	13.50	4.50	1.06
current	CLE	5	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.31	1.29
current	KC	1	Seth Lugo	Starter	5.1	3	2	2	3	4	1	0	0	3.38	2.68	1.24
current	KC	2	Matt Strahm	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.29	1.17
current	KC	3	Nick Mears	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.13	1.03
current	KC	4	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	3.52	1.37
simulation	CLE	1	Slade Cecconi	Starter	4.1	7	2	2	2	4	0	24	97	4.15	6.56	1.57
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	16	0.00	3.31	1.29
simulation	CLE	3	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	11	0.00	2.25	0.88
simulation	CLE	4	Matt Festa	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	2	2	2	1	7	29	13.50	4.50	1.06
simulation	KC	1	Seth Lugo	Starter	5.1	3	2	2	3	4	1	24	106	3.38	2.68	1.24
simulation	KC	2	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	5	19	9.00	3.52	1.37
simulation	KC	3	Matt Strahm	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	2	1	0	5	23	0.00	3.29	1.17
simulation	KC	4	Nick Mears	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	2.13	1.03

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CLE	Slade Cecconi	Starter	4.1	2	7	2	4	24	97
CLE	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	16
CLE	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	0	0	4	11
CLE	Matt Festa	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	2	2	7	29
KC	Seth Lugo	Starter	5.1	2	3	3	4	24	106
KC	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	0	5	19
KC	Matt Strahm	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	2	1	5	23
KC	Nick Mears	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	15

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	not triggered	0	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260507_MIN@WAS

20260507_MIN@WAS.json • 2026-05-07

MIN 6 - WAS 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 96INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match WAS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match WAS pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match WAS pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=41 matches WAS BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match MIN pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match MIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match MIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=38 matches MIN BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 9, WAS 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 6 - WAS 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIN; cap=0.54, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'opponent_team': 'WAS', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 15, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 13, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 11, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -8, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.6476328882219087, 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 13, 'path': '20260506_MIN@WAS.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.6134041869315101, 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 8, 'path': '20260505_MIN@WAS.json'}]}, 'pre_final_sync_predicted_team': 'WAS', 'final_score_winner': 'MIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 7 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 6 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_MIN@WAS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@WAS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 191.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 191.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 6 - 5 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 6 - 5 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIN, final=MIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIN wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIN wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-5, final 6-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIN wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 8/37 = 0.216.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 11/37 = 0.297.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match WAS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match WAS pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match WAS pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=41 matches WAS BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match MIN pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match MIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match MIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=38 matches MIN BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.510.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.490.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIN 9, WAS 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIN 6 - WAS 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: MIN.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIN; cap=0.54, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result; a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'opponent_team': 'WAS', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 15, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 13, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 11, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -8, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team': 'MIN', 'confidence': 0.6476328882219087, 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 13, 'path': '20260506_MIN@WAS.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.6134041869315101, 'actual_winner': 'MIN', 'actual_margin': 8, 'path': '20260505_MIN@WAS.json'}]}, 'pre_final_sync_predicted_team': 'WAS', 'final_score_winner': 'MIN', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIN', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 7 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'MIN 6 - 5 WAS', 'winner': 'MIN'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -1, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_MIN@WAS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIN@WAS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 191.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 191.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIN 6 - 5 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIN 6 - 5 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIN wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=MIN, final=MIN.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.510.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIN wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIN wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-5, final 6-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIN wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 8/37 = 0.216.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 11/37 = 0.297.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.6351318359375	5.48200798034668		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	7	5	0.510	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	7	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	0	0	3	0	0	0	3	0	0	6	9
WAS	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	5	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIN	batting	36	9	3	0	3	6	6	5	10	0	0	0	0
current	MIN	pitching		7			1		5	4	9					9.0	5	0	0
current	WAS	batting	34	7	1	0	1	5	5	4	9	0	0	0	0
current	WAS	pitching		9			3		6	5	10					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	MIN	batting	36	9	3	0	3	6	6	5	10	0	0
simulation	MIN	pitching		7			1		5	4	9					9.0	5	38	165
simulation	WAS	batting	34	7	1	0	1	5	5	4	9	0	0
simulation	WAS	pitching		9			3		6	5	10					9.0	6	41	191

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	MIN		3B	Tristan Gray	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
current	MIN		LF	Austin Martin	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	MIN		2B	Luke Keaschall	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
current	MIN		1B	Kody Clemens	4	3	2	0	1	1	3	1	1	0.667
current	MIN		CF	Byron Buxton	5	4	2	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.500
current	MIN		RF	Matt Wallner	5	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
current	MIN		C	Ryan Jeffers	5	4	2	1	0	1	0	1	2	0.500
current	MIN		SS	Brooks Lee	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	MIN		DH	Trevor Larnach	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
current	WAS		SS	CJ Abrams	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	WAS		DH	Jose Fernandez	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.250
current	WAS		LF	Daylen Lile	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	WAS		1B	Curtis Mead	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
current	WAS		C	Keibert Ruiz	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	WAS		2B	Nasim Nuñez	4	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0.250
current	WAS		3B	Brady House	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
current	WAS		RF	James Wood	5	4	1	0	1	1	3	1	2	0.250
current	WAS		CF	Jacob Young	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	MIN	1	CF	Byron Buxton	5	4	2	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	MIN	2	DH	Trevor Larnach	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	MIN	3	LF	Austin Martin	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	4	C	Ryan Jeffers	5	4	2	1	0	1	0	1	2	0.500
simulation	MIN	5	RF	Matt Wallner	5	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.250
simulation	MIN	6	2B	Luke Keaschall	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	7	1B	Kody Clemens	4	3	2	0	1	1	3	1	1	0.667
simulation	MIN	8	SS	Brooks Lee	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIN	9	3B	Tristan Gray	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	WAS	1	RF	James Wood	5	4	1	0	1	1	3	1	2	0.250
simulation	WAS	2	LF	Daylen Lile	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	3	1B	Curtis Mead	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	WAS	4	SS	CJ Abrams	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	WAS	5	3B	Brady House	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	WAS	6	DH	Jose Fernandez	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	WAS	7	CF	Jacob Young	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	WAS	8	C	Keibert Ruiz	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	9	2B	Nasim Nuñez	4	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIN	1	Simeon Woods Richardson	Starter	3.2	7	4	4	3	4	1	0	0	9.82	6.49	1.76
current	MIN	2	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	5.17	1.53
current	MIN	3	Justin Topa	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	6.75	7.41	1.82
current	MIN	4	Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.86	1.44
current	MIN	5	Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.29	1.54
current	MIN	6	Kody Funderburk	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.51	1.33
current	WAS	1	Jake Irvin	Starter	2.2	6	3	3	3	4	1	0	0	10.12	4.93	1.30
current	WAS	2	Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	2.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.38	1.35
current	WAS	3	Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.51	1.67
current	WAS	4	Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.25	1.00
current	WAS	5	PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.63	1.33
current	WAS	6	Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	0.1	2	3	3	1	1	2	0	0	81.00	3.80	1.23
simulation	MIN	1	Simeon Woods Richardson	Starter	3.2	7	4	4	3	4	1	22	99	9.82	6.49	1.76
simulation	MIN	2	Justin Topa	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	0	1	0	3	14	6.75	7.41	1.82
simulation	MIN	3	Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	4.86	1.44
simulation	MIN	4	Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	11	0.00	3.29	1.54
simulation	MIN	5	Kody Funderburk	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	2.51	1.33
simulation	MIN	6	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	11	0.00	5.17	1.53
simulation	WAS	1	Jake Irvin	Starter	2.2	6	3	3	3	4	1	21	96	10.12	4.93	1.30
simulation	WAS	2	Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	2.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	24	0.00	3.38	1.35
simulation	WAS	3	PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	3.63	1.33
simulation	WAS	4	Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	0.1	2	3	3	1	1	2	6	27	81.00	3.80	1.23
simulation	WAS	5	Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.51	1.67
simulation	WAS	6	Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	16	0.00	2.25	1.00

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIN	Simeon Woods Richardson	Starter	3.2	4	7	3	4	22	99
MIN	Justin Topa	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	3	14
MIN	Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
MIN	Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	11
MIN	Kody Funderburk	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	2	3	13
MIN	Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	3	11
WAS	Jake Irvin	Starter	2.2	3	6	3	4	21	96
WAS	Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	1	1	1	5	24
WAS	PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	15
WAS	Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	0.1	3	2	1	1	6	27
WAS	Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	1	3	13
WAS	Orlando Ribalta	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260507_NYM@COL

20260507_NYM@COL.json • 2026-05-07

NYM 6 - COL 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 96INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match NYM pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match NYM pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=38 matches NYM BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match COL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match COL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match COL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=37 matches COL BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 5, COL 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 6 - COL 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYM; cap=0.58, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-04-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-04-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'COL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'confidence': 0.57325, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260506_NYM@COL.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'confidence': 0.57325, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260505_NYM@COL.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-04', 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'confidence': 0.58, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260504_NYM@COL.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'NYM', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYM 5 - 4 COL', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYM 6 - 3 COL', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_NYM@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@COL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 6 - 3 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 6 - 3 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYM, final=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYM wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-3, final 6-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 8/37 = 0.216.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 13/36 = 0.361.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match NYM pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match NYM pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=38 matches NYM BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match COL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match COL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match COL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=37 matches COL BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 5, COL 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 6 - COL 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYM.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYM; cap=0.58, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick; local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 3 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-04', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'NYM'}, {'date': '2026-04-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-04-26', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'COL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 3, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'confidence': 0.57325, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260506_NYM@COL.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'confidence': 0.57325, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260505_NYM@COL.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-04', 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'confidence': 0.58, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260504_NYM@COL.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'NYM', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYM', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'NYM 5 - 4 COL', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 6, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'NYM 6 - 3 COL', 'winner': 'NYM'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': -1, 'total_run_delta': 0, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_NYM@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@COL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 158.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 158.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 6 - 3 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 6 - 3 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 6-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYM, final=NYM.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYM wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-3, final 6-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 8/37 = 0.216.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 13/36 = 0.361.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.553363800048828	4.403609275817871		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.580	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	0	3	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	6	5
COL	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	NYM	batting	32	5	2	0	1	6	6	4	7	0	1	0	0
current	NYM	pitching		9			0		3	2	9					9.0	3	0	0
current	COL	batting	36	9	1	1	0	3	3	2	9	0	0	0	0
current	COL	pitching		5			1		6	4	7					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	NYM	batting	32	5	2	0	1	6	6	4	7	0	1
simulation	NYM	pitching		9			0		3	2	9					9.0	3	38	158
simulation	COL	batting	36	9	1	1	0	3	3	2	9	0	0
simulation	COL	pitching		5			1		6	4	7					9.0	6	37	149

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	NYM		SS	Vidal Bruján	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
current	NYM		DH	Juan Soto	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	NYM		LF	Andy Ibáñez	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		2B	Marcus Semien	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
current	NYM		C	Francisco Alvarez	4	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.667
current	NYM		RF	Austin Slater	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	NYM		3B	Bo Bichette	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	NYM		1B	Mark Vientos	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	NYM		CF	Tyrone Taylor	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		RF	Troy Johnston	4	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
current	COL		2B	Edouard Julien	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.400
current	COL		C	Brett Sullivan	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	COL		DH	Tyler Freeman	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		SS	Willi Castro	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
current	COL		CF	Jake McCarthy	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	COL		LF	Mickey Moniak	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	COL		3B	Kyle Karros	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		1B	TJ Rumfield	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	1	DH	Juan Soto	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	2	3B	Bo Bichette	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	3	1B	Mark Vientos	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	NYM	4	RF	Austin Slater	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	5	2B	Marcus Semien	4	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	NYM	6	LF	Andy Ibáñez	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	7	C	Francisco Alvarez	4	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	NYM	8	CF	Tyrone Taylor	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	9	SS	Vidal Bruján	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	COL	1	2B	Edouard Julien	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	COL	2	LF	Mickey Moniak	5	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	COL	3	DH	Tyler Freeman	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	COL	4	1B	TJ Rumfield	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	COL	5	RF	Troy Johnston	4	3	1	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	COL	6	SS	Willi Castro	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	COL	7	CF	Jake McCarthy	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	COL	8	3B	Kyle Karros	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	COL	9	C	Brett Sullivan	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	NYM	1	Christian Scott	Starter	5.1	6	1	1	1	7	0	0	0	1.69	4.26	1.26
current	NYM	2	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.29	0.86
current	NYM	4	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.63	1.46
current	NYM	6	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	27.00	4.70	1.04
current	COL	1	Jose Quintana	Starter	4.2	5	5	5	4	5	1	0	0	9.64	4.07	1.36
current	COL	2	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.21	0.81
current	COL	3	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	5.40	7.24	1.98
current	COL	5	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.50	1.29
simulation	NYM	1	Christian Scott	Starter	5.1	6	1	1	1	7	0	25	103	1.69	4.26	1.26
simulation	NYM	2	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	12	0.00	4.63	1.46
simulation	NYM	3	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	2	2	1	1	0	6	28	27.00	4.70	1.04
simulation	NYM	4	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	15	0.00	1.29	0.86
simulation	COL	1	Jose Quintana	Starter	4.2	5	5	5	4	5	1	28	112	9.64	4.07	1.36
simulation	COL	2	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	1	0	0	0	3	13	5.40	7.24	1.98
simulation	COL	3	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	15	0.00	1.21	0.81
simulation	COL	4	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	9	0.00	4.50	1.29

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
NYM	Christian Scott	Starter	5.1	1	6	1	7	25	103
NYM	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	12
NYM	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	2	1	1	6	28
NYM	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	0	0	4	15
COL	Jose Quintana	Starter	4.2	5	5	4	5	28	112
COL	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	3	13
COL	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	0	0	2	3	15
COL	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	9

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260507_OAK@PHI

20260507_OAK@PHI.json • 2026-05-07

OAK 5 - PHI 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 97INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match PHI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match PHI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match PHI pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=40 matches PHI BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match OAK pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match OAK pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=38 matches OAK BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.427.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.573.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.573.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.268/0.636.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 10, PHI 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 5 - PHI 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 11, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'PHI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.7016142172287778, 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260506_OAK@PHI.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.68, 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 8, 'path': '20260505_OAK@PHI.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'OAK 4 - 5 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 5 - 6 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_OAK@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@PHI.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 5 - 6 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 5 - 6 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=PHI, final=PHI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.573.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PHI wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 10/36 = 0.278.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 10/37 = 0.270.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match PHI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match PHI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match PHI pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=40 matches PHI BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match OAK pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match OAK pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=38 matches OAK BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.427.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.573.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.573.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.268/0.636.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: OAK 10, PHI 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: OAK 5 - PHI 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PHI.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'OAK', 'h2h_net_margin': 11, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 9, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 8, 'winner': 'PHI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.7016142172287778, 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260506_OAK@PHI.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.68, 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 8, 'path': '20260505_OAK@PHI.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'OAK 4 - 5 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'OAK 5 - 6 PHI', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_OAK@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: OAK@PHI.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: OAK 5 - 6 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: OAK 5 - 6 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 6-5.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=PHI, final=PHI.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.573.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PHI wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 10/36 = 0.278.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 10/37 = 0.270.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.289031505584717	4.8776164054870605		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.573	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	0	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5	10
PHI	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	0	6	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	OAK	batting	37	10	3	0	1	5	5	3	7	0	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		10			0		6	4	8					8.0	6	0	0
current	PHI	batting	34	10	3	0	0	6	6	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	PHI	pitching		10			1		5	3	7					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	OAK	batting	37	10	3	0	1	5	5	3	7	0	0
simulation	OAK	pitching		10			0		6	4	8					8.0	6	38	154
simulation	PHI	batting	34	10	3	0	0	6	6	4	8	0	0
simulation	PHI	pitching		10			1		5	3	7					9.0	5	40	156

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	OAK		LF	Tyler Soderstrom	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	OAK		1B	Nick Kurtz	5	5	2	0	1	1	3	0	0	0.400
current	OAK		3B	Zack Gelof	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	OAK		2B	Jeff McNeil	4	4	2	2	0	1	2	0	0	0.500
current	OAK		DH	Brent Rooker	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
current	OAK		SS	Jacob Wilson	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		C	Shea Langeliers	5	5	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.600
current	OAK		RF	Carlos Cortes	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0.000
current	OAK		CF	Lawrence Butler	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	PHI		LF	Brandon Marsh	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	PHI		DH	Kyle Schwarber	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	PHI		SS	Trea Turner	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	PHI		3B	Edmundo Sosa	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
current	PHI		RF	Adolis García	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
current	PHI		1B	Bryce Harper	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	PHI		C	Rafael Marchán	4	4	2	1	0	1	4	0	1	0.500
current	PHI		2B	Bryson Stott	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
current	PHI		CF	Justin Crawford	4	3	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	1.000
simulation	OAK	1	1B	Nick Kurtz	5	5	2	0	1	1	3	0	0	0.400
simulation	OAK	2	C	Shea Langeliers	5	5	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.600
simulation	OAK	3	LF	Tyler Soderstrom	5	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	4	DH	Brent Rooker	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	OAK	5	RF	Carlos Cortes	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0.000
simulation	OAK	6	SS	Jacob Wilson	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	OAK	7	CF	Lawrence Butler	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	OAK	8	3B	Zack Gelof	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	9	2B	Jeff McNeil	4	4	2	2	0	1	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	PHI	1	SS	Trea Turner	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	PHI	2	DH	Kyle Schwarber	5	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	PHI	3	1B	Bryce Harper	4	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	4	RF	Adolis García	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	PHI	5	LF	Brandon Marsh	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	PHI	6	2B	Bryson Stott	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	PHI	7	3B	Edmundo Sosa	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	PHI	8	CF	Justin Crawford	4	3	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	1.000
simulation	PHI	9	C	Rafael Marchán	4	4	2	1	0	1	4	0	1	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	OAK	1	J.T. Ginn	Starter	4.2	7	3	3	1	4	0	0	0	5.79	4.30	1.26
current	OAK	2	Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	1.2	2	3	3	2	1	0	0	0	16.20	2.13	1.11
current	OAK	3	Jack Perkins	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.68	1.16
current	OAK	4	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.79	1.71
current	PHI	1	Andrew Painter	Starter	2.0	5	2	2	1	0	1	0	0	9.00	5.28	1.59
current	PHI	2	Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.02	1.21
current	PHI	3	Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	9.00	8.31	1.62
current	PHI	4	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	5.84	2.11
current	PHI	5	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.08	1.15
current	PHI	6	Tim Mayza	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	9.00	3.38	1.02
current	PHI	7	Jhoan Duran	Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00
current	PHI	8	Chase Shugart	Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00
simulation	OAK	1	J.T. Ginn	Starter	4.2	7	3	3	1	4	0	23	84	5.79	4.30	1.26
simulation	OAK	2	Jack Perkins	Middle Reliever	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	21	0.00	3.68	1.16
simulation	OAK	3	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	14	0.00	2.79	1.71
simulation	OAK	4	Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	1.2	2	3	3	2	1	0	7	35	16.20	2.13	1.11
simulation	PHI	1	Andrew Painter	Starter	2.0	5	2	2	1	0	1	12	48	9.00	5.28	1.59
simulation	PHI	2	Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	16	0.00	4.02	1.21
simulation	PHI	3	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	3	9	9.00	5.84	2.11
simulation	PHI	4	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	19	0.00	2.08	1.15
simulation	PHI	5	Tim Mayza	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	5	19	9.00	3.38	1.02
simulation	PHI	6	Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	4	20	9.00	8.31	1.62
simulation	PHI	7	Jhoan Duran	Reliever	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	12	0.00	2.35	1.17
simulation	PHI	8	Chase Shugart	Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	13	0.00	0.84	1.03

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
OAK	J.T. Ginn	Starter	4.2	3	7	1	4	23	84
OAK	Jack Perkins	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	1	1	1	5	21
OAK	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	2	3	14
OAK	Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	1.2	3	2	2	1	7	35
PHI	Andrew Painter	Starter	2.0	2	5	1	0	12	48
PHI	Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	16
PHI	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	9
PHI	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	19
PHI	Tim Mayza	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	5	19
PHI	Jonathan Bowlan	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	2	4	20
PHI	Jhoan Duran	Reliever	0.1	0	1	0	1	4	12
PHI	Chase Shugart	Reliever	1.2	0	1	0	1	4	13

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260507_PIT@ARI

20260507_PIT@ARI.json • 2026-05-07

PIT 4 - ARI 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 96INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match PIT pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=36 matches PIT BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match ARI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match ARI pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=38 matches ARI BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.524.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.524.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.476.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.318/0.736.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PIT 10, ARI 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PIT 4 - ARI 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PIT; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick guardrail flipped the lean after a blowout miss and opponent breakout'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'opponent_team': 'ARI', 'h2h_net_margin': -9, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -9, 'winner': 'ARI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.7586367030641648, 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 9, 'path': '20260506_PIT@ARI.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.7155473025896839, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260505_PIT@ARI.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'PIT', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': True}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 3 ARI', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_PIT@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PIT@ARI.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 143.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 143.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PIT 4 - 3 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PIT 4 - 3 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation winner reversal is traced: pre=ARI, final=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.524.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 13/35 = 0.371.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 11/37 = 0.297.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match PIT pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=36 matches PIT BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match ARI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match ARI pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=38 matches ARI BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.524.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.524.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.476.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.318/0.736.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PIT 10, ARI 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PIT 4 - ARI 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: PIT.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PIT; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick guardrail flipped the lean after a blowout miss and opponent breakout'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'opponent_team': 'ARI', 'h2h_net_margin': -9, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 9, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -9, 'winner': 'ARI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.7586367030641648, 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 9, 'path': '20260506_PIT@ARI.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.7155473025896839, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260505_PIT@ARI.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'PIT', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'ARI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': True}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 5 ARI', 'winner': 'ARI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 3, 'score_text': 'PIT 4 - 3 ARI', 'winner': 'PIT'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': True, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_PIT@ARI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PIT@ARI.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 143.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 143.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PIT 4 - 3 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PIT 4 - 3 ARI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	Simulation winner reversal is traced: pre=ARI, final=PIT.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.524.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-3, final 4-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 4-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 13/35 = 0.371.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 11/37 = 0.297.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.800192832946777	3.5515987873077393		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	3		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.524	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result
simulation_winner_reversal	4	3		Inning simulation reversed the pre-simulation winner; final-facing prediction was synchronized to the simulation.

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4	10
ARI	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	PIT	batting	37	10	2	0	0	4	4	1	7	0	0	0	0
current	PIT	pitching		6			1		3	1	5					9.0	3	0	0
current	ARI	batting	32	6	2	0	1	3	3	1	5	1	2	0	0
current	ARI	pitching		10			0		4	1	7					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	PIT	batting	37	10	2	0	0	4	4	1	7	0	0
simulation	PIT	pitching		6			1		3	1	5					9.0	3	36	143
simulation	ARI	batting	32	6	2	0	1	3	3	1	5	1	2
simulation	ARI	pitching		10			0		4	1	7					9.0	4	38	147

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	PIT		1B	Spencer Horwitz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	PIT		2B	Brandon Lowe	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	PIT		SS	Konnor Griffin	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		RF	Ryan O'Hearn	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	PIT		DH	Oneil Cruz	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.200
current	PIT		C	Joey Bart	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	PIT		3B	Jared Triolo	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
current	PIT		CF	Jake Mangum	4	4	3	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.750
current	PIT		LF	Bryan Reynolds	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		C	James McCann	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.000
current	ARI		RF	Corbin Carroll	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		2B	Ketel Marte	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
current	ARI		DH	Adrian Del Castillo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	ARI		1B	Ildemaro Vargas	4	4	3	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.750
current	ARI		SS	Geraldo Perdomo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	ARI		CF	Alek Thomas	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	ARI		3B	Jose Fernandez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	ARI		LF	Jorge Barrosa	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	PIT	1	DH	Oneil Cruz	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	PIT	2	2B	Brandon Lowe	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	3	LF	Bryan Reynolds	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	4	RF	Ryan O'Hearn	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	5	1B	Spencer Horwitz	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	6	SS	Konnor Griffin	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	7	3B	Jared Triolo	4	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	PIT	8	CF	Jake Mangum	4	4	3	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	PIT	9	C	Joey Bart	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	1	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	2	2B	Ketel Marte	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	ARI	3	RF	Corbin Carroll	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	4	DH	Adrian Del Castillo	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	5	1B	Ildemaro Vargas	4	4	3	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	ARI	6	3B	Jose Fernandez	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	ARI	7	LF	Jorge Barrosa	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	ARI	8	C	James McCann	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	9	CF	Alek Thomas	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	PIT	1	Mitch Keller	Starter	3.2	3	2	2	1	3	0	0	0	4.91	2.85	1.05
current	PIT	2	Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	2.1	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	3.86	4.02	1.28
current	PIT	3	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.50	0.72
current	PIT	4	Isaac Mattson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.78	1.44
current	PIT	5	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.38	1.35
current	ARI	1	Zac Gallen	Starter	4.1	4	2	2	0	5	0	0	0	4.15	4.45	1.52
current	ARI	2	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.43
current	ARI	3	Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	10.80	2.40
current	ARI	4	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	9.00	2.00
current	ARI	5	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
simulation	PIT	1	Mitch Keller	Starter	3.2	3	2	2	1	3	0	21	80	4.91	2.85	1.05
simulation	PIT	2	Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	2.1	2	1	1	0	0	1	5	18	3.86	4.02	1.28
simulation	PIT	3	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	1.50	0.72
simulation	PIT	4	Isaac Mattson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	12	0.00	3.78	1.44
simulation	PIT	5	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	17	0.00	3.38	1.35
simulation	ARI	1	Zac Gallen	Starter	4.1	4	2	2	0	5	0	19	75	4.15	4.45	1.52
simulation	ARI	2	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	21	0.00	0.00	0.00
simulation	ARI	3	Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	0	6	23	9.00	10.80	2.40
simulation	ARI	4	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	13	0.00	0.00	0.43
simulation	ARI	5	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	5	15	9.00	9.00	2.00

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
PIT	Mitch Keller	Starter	3.2	2	3	1	3	21	80
PIT	Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	2.1	1	2	0	0	5	18
PIT	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
PIT	Isaac Mattson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	12
PIT	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17
ARI	Zac Gallen	Starter	4.1	2	4	0	5	19	75
ARI	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	21
ARI	Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	3	0	1	6	23
ARI	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	0	0	4	13
ARI	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	0	5	15

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260507_STL@SD

20260507_STL@SD.json • 2026-05-07

STL 5 - SD 2

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 96INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match STL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match STL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match STL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=37 matches STL BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match SD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match SD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match SD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=38 matches SD BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.617.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.617.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.383.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.295/0.689.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 9, SD 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 5 - SD 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for STL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.6169149624859105, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_STL@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@SD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 5 - 2 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 5 - 2 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=STL, final=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.617.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: STL wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 8/36 = 0.222.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 11/36 = 0.306.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match STL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match STL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match STL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=37 matches STL BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match SD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match SD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match SD pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=38 matches SD BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.617.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.617.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.383.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.295/0.689.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 9, SD 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 5 - SD 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: STL.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for STL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.6169149624859105, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_STL@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@SD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 5 - 2 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 5 - 2 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 5-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=STL, final=STL.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.617.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: STL wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 8/36 = 0.222.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 11/36 = 0.306.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.466384410858154	4.404207229614258		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.617	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1	0	5	9
SD	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	STL	batting	35	9	1	0	1	5	5	1	6	1	1	0	0
current	STL	pitching		8			2		2	1	6					9.0	2	0	0
current	SD	batting	35	8	0	0	2	2	2	1	6	0	1	0	0
current	SD	pitching		9			1		5	1	6					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	STL	batting	35	9	1	0	1	5	5	1	6	1	1
simulation	STL	pitching		8			2		2	1	6					9.0	2	37	149
simulation	SD	batting	35	8	0	0	2	2	2	1	6	0	1
simulation	SD	pitching		9			1		5	1	6					9.0	5	38	141

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	STL		2B	JJ Wetherholt	5	5	1	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0.200
current	STL		C	Pedro Pagés	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		CF	Victor Scott II	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
current	STL		3B	Nolan Gorman	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	STL		RF	Jordan Walker	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	STL		DH	Iván Herrera	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	STL		1B	Alec Burleson	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
current	STL		SS	Masyn Winn	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.333
current	STL		LF	Nathan Church	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	SD		CF	Jackson Merrill	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	SD		DH	Gavin Sheets	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	SD		3B	Manny Machado	4	3	2	0	2	1	2	1	0	0	0.667
current	SD		RF	Nick Castellanos	4	4	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.750
current	SD		2B	Fernando Tatis Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	SD		LF	Ramón Laureano	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	SD		SS	Xander Bogaerts	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	SD		1B	Ty France	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	SD		C	Miguel Andujar	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	STL	1	2B	JJ Wetherholt	5	5	1	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	STL	2	DH	Iván Herrera	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	STL	3	1B	Alec Burleson	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	STL	4	RF	Jordan Walker	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	STL	5	3B	Nolan Gorman	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	STL	6	SS	Masyn Winn	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	STL	7	LF	Nathan Church	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	STL	8	C	Pedro Pagés	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	STL	9	CF	Victor Scott II	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	SD	1	CF	Jackson Merrill	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	SD	2	DH	Miguel Andujar	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SD	3	3B	Manny Machado	4	3	2	0	2	1	2	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	SD	4	2B	Fernando Tatis Jr.	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	5	SS	Xander Bogaerts	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	6	LF	Ramón Laureano	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SD	7	1B	Ty France	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	SD	8	RF	Nick Castellanos	4	4	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.750
simulation	SD	9	1B	Gavin Sheets	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	STL	1	Matthew Liberatore	Starter	5.1	5	2	2	0	3	2	0	0	3.38	4.50	1.50
current	STL	2	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	7.20	2.07
current	STL	5	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.71	1.29
current	STL	6	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.12	0.94
current	SD	1	Michael King	Starter	4.1	4	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	2.08	2.95	1.13
current	SD	2	Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	1.2	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	5.40	1.80	0.80
current	SD	3	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.04	0.58
current	SD	4	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.53	1.02
current	SD	6	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	0.2	3	3	3	0	2	1	0	0	40.50	5.40	1.30
simulation	STL	1	Matthew Liberatore	Starter	5.1	5	2	2	0	3	2	23	94	3.38	4.50	1.50
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	5	21	0.00	2.12	0.94
simulation	STL	3	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	14	0.00	3.71	1.29
simulation	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.2	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	20	0.00	7.20	2.07
simulation	SD	1	Michael King	Starter	4.1	4	1	1	1	2	0	21	76	2.08	2.95	1.13
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	11	0.00	1.04	0.58
simulation	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	0.2	3	3	3	0	2	1	6	25	40.50	5.40	1.30
simulation	SD	4	Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	1.2	2	1	1	0	1	0	5	20	5.40	1.80	0.80
simulation	SD	5	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	9	0.00	1.53	1.02

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
STL	Matthew Liberatore	Starter	5.1	2	5	0	3	23	94
STL	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	5	21
STL	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	14
STL	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	2	0	0	5	20
SD	Michael King	Starter	4.1	1	4	1	2	21	76
SD	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	11
SD	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	0.2	3	3	0	2	6	25
SD	Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	2	0	1	5	20
SD	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	9

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260507_TB@BOS

20260507_TB@BOS.json • 2026-05-07

TB 4 - BOS 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 97INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match TB pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match TB pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=35 matches TB BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match BOS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match BOS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=36 matches BOS BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.461.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.295/0.689.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 4, BOS 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 4 - BOS 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for BOS.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5392620519168427, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_TB@BOS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@BOS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 4 - 5 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 4 - 5 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=BOS, final=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.539.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 12/37 = 0.324.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 14/36 = 0.389.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match TB pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match TB pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match TB pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=35 matches TB BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match BOS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match BOS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match BOS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=36 matches BOS BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	No head-to-head rows are present, so no H2H date leakage was detected.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.461.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.539.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.295/0.689.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TB 4, BOS 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TB 4 - BOS 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: BOS.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for BOS.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5392620519168427, 'h2h_net_margin': 0, 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_TB@BOS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TB@BOS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 141.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 141.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TB 4 - 5 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TB 4 - 5 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 5-4.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=BOS, final=BOS.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.539.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 12/37 = 0.324.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 14/36 = 0.389.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.355161666870117	4.675437927246094		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	3	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.539	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	4	4
BOS	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	5	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TB	batting	31	4	1	0	1	4	4	5	12	0	0	0	0
current	TB	pitching		7			2		5	3	6					8.0	5	0	0
current	BOS	batting	31	7	2	0	2	5	5	3	6	0	1	0	0
current	BOS	pitching		4			1		4	5	12					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	TB	batting	31	4	1	0	1	4	4	5	12	0	0
simulation	TB	pitching		7			2		5	3	6					8.0	5	35	141
simulation	BOS	batting	31	7	2	0	2	5	5	3	6	0	1
simulation	BOS	pitching		4			1		4	5	12					9.0	4	36	154

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TB		LF	Ryan Vilade	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
current	TB		SS	Taylor Walls	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	TB		DH	Yandy Díaz	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		3B	Junior Caminero	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.000
current	TB		1B	Jonathan Aranda	4	3	1	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0.333
current	TB		C	Nick Fortes	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	TB		2B	Ben Williamson	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
current	TB		CF	Cedric Mullins	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TB		RF	Jonny DeLuca	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		3B	Caleb Durbin	3	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	BOS		2B	Marcelo Mayer	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	BOS		RF	Wilyer Abreu	4	3	2	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0.667
current	BOS		LF	Jarren Duran	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	BOS		1B	Willson Contreras	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.000
current	BOS		SS	Trevor Story	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
current	BOS		DH	Masataka Yoshida	4	3	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	1	0.333
current	BOS		C	Connor Wong	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	BOS		CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TB	1	DH	Yandy Díaz	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TB	2	LF	Ryan Vilade	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	TB	3	3B	Junior Caminero	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	TB	4	1B	Jonathan Aranda	4	3	1	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	TB	5	RF	Jonny DeLuca	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TB	6	2B	Ben Williamson	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	TB	7	C	Nick Fortes	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TB	8	CF	Cedric Mullins	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TB	9	SS	Taylor Walls	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	1	LF	Jarren Duran	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	2	1B	Willson Contreras	4	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	3	RF	Wilyer Abreu	4	3	2	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	BOS	4	SS	Trevor Story	4	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	BOS	5	DH	Masataka Yoshida	4	3	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	BOS	6	CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	7	2B	Marcelo Mayer	4	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	BOS	8	C	Connor Wong	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	9	3B	Caleb Durbin	3	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TB	1	Griffin Jax	Starter	3.2	7	5	5	2	5	2	0	0	12.27	3.21	1.21
current	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.45	0.82
current	TB	3	Ian Seymour	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.55	1.08
current	TB	4	Cole Sulser	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.75	1.37
current	BOS	1	Jake Bennett	Starter	3.1	2	2	2	4	6	0	0	0	5.40	1.80	1.40
current	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	13.50	0.77	0.86
current	BOS	3	Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.91	1.43
current	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.77	1.33
current	BOS	5	Jovani Morán	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.66	1.13
current	BOS	6	Zack Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.29	1.17
simulation	TB	1	Griffin Jax	Starter	3.2	7	5	5	2	5	2	25	99	12.27	3.21	1.21
simulation	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	8	0.00	2.45	0.82
simulation	TB	3	Ian Seymour	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	21	0.00	2.55	1.08
simulation	TB	4	Cole Sulser	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	2.75	1.37
simulation	BOS	1	Jake Bennett	Starter	3.1	2	2	2	4	6	0	18	80	5.40	1.80	1.40
simulation	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	2	1	1	1	6	22	13.50	0.77	0.86
simulation	BOS	3	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	3.77	1.33
simulation	BOS	4	Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	18	0.00	4.91	1.43
simulation	BOS	5	Zack Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	3.29	1.17
simulation	BOS	6	Jovani Morán	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	10	0.00	2.66	1.13

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TB	Griffin Jax	Starter	3.2	5	7	2	5	25	99
TB	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	8
TB	Ian Seymour	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	1	1	4	21
TB	Cole Sulser	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
BOS	Jake Bennett	Starter	3.1	2	2	4	6	18	80
BOS	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.1	2	2	1	1	6	22
BOS	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	11
BOS	Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	2	3	18
BOS	Zack Kelly	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
BOS	Jovani Morán	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	10

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260507_TEX@NYY

20260507_TEX@NYY.json • 2026-05-07

TEX 2 - NYY 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 97INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match TEX pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match TEX pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=35 matches TEX BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match NYY pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match NYY pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=38 matches NYY BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.460.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 6, NYY 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 2 - NYY 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.54, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'TEX', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TEX'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 5, 'path': '20260506_TEX@NYY.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.58, 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260505_TEX@NYY.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 5 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'TEX 2 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -2, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_TEX@NYY.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@NYY.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 2 - 6 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 2 - 6 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYY, final=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.540.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYY wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-6, final 2-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 15/37 = 0.405.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 12/36 = 0.333.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match TEX pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match TEX pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=35 matches TEX BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match NYY pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match NYY pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match NYY pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=38 matches NYY BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.460.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 6, NYY 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 2 - NYY 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	Guardrail predicted_team matches final predicted winner: NYY.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYY; cap=0.54, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'opponent_team': 'TEX', 'h2h_net_margin': -5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'TEX'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'NYY'}, {'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'TEX'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-06', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': 'TEX', 'actual_margin': 5, 'path': '20260506_TEX@NYY.json'}, {'date': '2026-05-05', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.58, 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260505_TEX@NYY.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'NYY', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'NYY', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'TEX 4 - 5 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 2, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'TEX 2 - 6 NYY', 'winner': 'NYY'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': -2, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': -1, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-07.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260507_TEX@NYY.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@NYY.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 136.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 136.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 2 - 6 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 2 - 6 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 6-2.
PASS	prediction_comparison			SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	No simulation winner reversal: pre=NYY, final=NYY.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.540.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYY wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-6, final 2-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 15/37 = 0.405.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 12/36 = 0.333.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5	5		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.540	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6
NYY	0	1	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	6	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TEX	batting	33	6	1	0	0	2	2	4	8	0	1	0	0
current	TEX	pitching		8			1		6	2	3					8.0	6	0	0
current	NYY	batting	31	8	1	0	1	6	6	2	3	1	1	0	0
current	NYY	pitching		6			0		2	4	8					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	TEX	batting	33	6	1	0	0	2	2	4	8	0	1
simulation	TEX	pitching		8			1		6	2	3					8.0	6	35	136
simulation	NYY	batting	31	8	1	0	1	6	6	2	3	1	1
simulation	NYY	pitching		6			0		2	4	8					9.0	2	38	156

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TEX		2B	Justin Foscue	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
current	TEX		CF	Evan Carter	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
current	TEX		RF	Joc Pederson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	TEX		3B	Josh Jung	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	TEX		LF	Ezequiel Duran	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.200
current	TEX		DH	Brandon Nimmo	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0.000
current	TEX		SS	Corey Seager	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		1B	Jake Burger	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TEX		C	Danny Jansen	4	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.667
current	NYY		SS	Max Schuemann	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		CF	Trent Grisham	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.000
current	NYY		3B	Amed Rosario	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	NYY		2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.667
current	NYY		DH	Aaron Judge	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	NYY		RF	Cody Bellinger	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	NYY		1B	Paul Goldschmidt	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	NYY		LF	Jasson Domínguez	4	4	3	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.750
current	NYY		C	J.C. Escarra	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	1	DH	Brandon Nimmo	5	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	2	LF	Ezequiel Duran	5	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	TEX	3	SS	Corey Seager	4	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	4	3B	Josh Jung	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	TEX	5	RF	Joc Pederson	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	6	1B	Jake Burger	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	7	CF	Evan Carter	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	TEX	8	C	Danny Jansen	4	3	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	TEX	9	2B	Justin Foscue	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	1	1B	Paul Goldschmidt	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	2	DH	Aaron Judge	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	3	RF	Cody Bellinger	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	NYY	4	3B	Amed Rosario	4	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	5	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	NYY	6	LF	Jasson Domínguez	4	4	3	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	NYY	7	CF	Trent Grisham	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	8	SS	Max Schuemann	4	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	9	C	J.C. Escarra	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TEX	1	MacKenzie Gore	Starter	4.2	7	6	6	1	2	1	0	0	11.57	4.67	1.36
current	TEX	2	Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.76	0.72
current	TEX	3	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.96	0.48
current	NYY	1	Paul Blackburn	Starter	3.2	4	2	2	3	5	0	0	0	4.91	3.21	1.36
current	NYY	2	Camilo Doval	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	6.23	1.08
current	NYY	3	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.52	1.50
current	NYY	4	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.47	1.25
current	NYY	5	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.63	1.54
current	NYY	6	Tim Hill	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.26	0.77
simulation	TEX	1	MacKenzie Gore	Starter	4.2	7	6	6	1	2	1	27	103	11.57	4.67	1.36
simulation	TEX	2	Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	9	0.00	1.76	0.72
simulation	TEX	3	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	24	0.00	0.96	0.48
simulation	NYY	1	Paul Blackburn	Starter	3.2	4	2	2	3	5	0	20	80	4.91	3.21	1.36
simulation	NYY	2	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	3.52	1.50
simulation	NYY	3	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	2.63	1.54
simulation	NYY	4	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	16	0.00	1.47	1.25
simulation	NYY	5	Tim Hill	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	12	0.00	1.26	0.77
simulation	NYY	6	Camilo Doval	Middle Reliever	1.2	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	26	0.00	6.23	1.08

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TEX	MacKenzie Gore	Starter	4.2	6	7	1	2	27	103
TEX	Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	2.1	0	0	0	0	3	9
TEX	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	24
NYY	Paul Blackburn	Starter	3.2	2	4	3	5	20	80
NYY	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	11
NYY	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	11
NYY	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	16
NYY	Tim Hill	Middle Reliever	0.1	0	0	0	0	3	12
NYY	Camilo Doval	Middle Reliever	1.2	0	1	1	1	5	26

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
GUARDRAIL_FINAL_WINNER_SYNC	good	1	Guardrail trace predicted_team matches the final predicted winner.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
SIMULATION_WINNER_FLIP_TRACE	good	1	Simulation winner reversals are explicitly recorded.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.