MLB JSON Audit Report

20260503_ARI@CHC

20260503_ARI@CHC.json • 2026-05-03

ARI 3 - CHC 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 95INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match CHC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match CHC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=40 matches CHC BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match ARI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=39 matches ARI BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.338.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.662.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.662.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.284/0.667.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 9, CHC 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 3 - CHC 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CHC.	{'winner_confidence': 0.6621884716624572, 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.7819405640340281, 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 2, 'file': '20260502_ARI@CHC.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_ARI@CHC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@CHC.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 3 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 3 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.662.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-6, final 3-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 12/32 = 0.375.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 14/33 = 0.424.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match CHC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match CHC pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match CHC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match CHC pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=40 matches CHC BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting walks match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting hits match ARI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHC batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHC PA=39 matches ARI BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.338.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.662.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.662.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.284/0.667.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 9, CHC 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 3 - CHC 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CHC.	{'winner_confidence': 0.6621884716624572, 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'CHC', 'confidence': 0.7819405640340281, 'actual_winner': 'CHC', 'actual_margin': 2, 'file': '20260502_ARI@CHC.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_ARI@CHC.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@CHC.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 3 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 3 - 6 CHC.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.662.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHC wins 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-6, final 3-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHC wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 12/32 = 0.375.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHC wins and win_pct agree: 14/33 = 0.424.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	CHC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.170336723327637	4.695044994354248		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	6	0.662	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
capped_target	4	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	9
CHC	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	6	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ARI	batting	36	9	2	0	1	3	3	3	6	0	1	0	0
current	ARI	pitching		8			1		6	7	6					8.0	6	0	0
current	CHC	batting	32	8	2	0	1	6	6	7	6	0	0	0	0
current	CHC	pitching		9			1		3	3	6					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	ARI	batting	36	9	2	0	1	3	3	3	6	0	1
simulation	ARI	pitching		8			1		6	7	6					8.0	6	39	176
simulation	CHC	batting	32	8	2	0	1	6	6	7	6	0	0
simulation	CHC	pitching		9			1		3	3	6					9.0	3	40	170

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	ARI		C	Gabriel Moreno	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		LF	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	ARI		CF	Jorge Barrosa	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		SS	Geraldo Perdomo	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	ARI		1B	Ildemaro Vargas	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	ARI		DH	Jose Fernandez	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.500
current	ARI		3B	Nolan Arenado	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		2B	Ketel Marte	3	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.333
current	ARI		RF	Corbin Carroll	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	0.500
current	CHC		LF	Ian Happ	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
current	CHC		2B	Nico Hoerner	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	CHC		1B	Michael Busch	2	0	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	0.000
current	CHC		CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
current	CHC		RF	Seiya Suzuki	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	CHC		3B	Alex Bregman	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	CHC		C	Carson Kelly	3	1	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0.333
current	CHC		SS	Dansby Swanson	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
current	CHC		DH	Moisés Ballesteros	4	2	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	ARI	1	2B	Ketel Marte	3	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.333
simulation	ARI	2	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	3	RF	Corbin Carroll	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	0.500
simulation	ARI	4	1B	Ildemaro Vargas	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	ARI	5	3B	Nolan Arenado	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	6	LF	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	7	C	Gabriel Moreno	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	8	DH	Jose Fernandez	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	ARI	9	CF	Jorge Barrosa	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	1	2B	Nico Hoerner	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	2	DH	Moisés Ballesteros	4	2	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	CHC	3	3B	Alex Bregman	4	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	4	LF	Ian Happ	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	CHC	5	RF	Seiya Suzuki	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	6	1B	Michael Busch	2	0	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	CHC	7	C	Carson Kelly	3	1	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	CHC	8	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	CHC	9	SS	Dansby Swanson	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ARI	1	Merrill Kelly	Starter	4.0	6	3	3	4	3	0	0	0	6.75	9.20	2.25
current	ARI	2	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.43
current	ARI	3	Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.00	10.80	2.40
current	ARI	4	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	18.00	9.00	2.00
current	ARI	5	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
current	CHC	1	Matthew Boyd	Starter	4.0	5	2	2	3	5	0	0	0	4.50	7.00	1.44
current	CHC	2	Ben Brown	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.82	0.97
current	CHC	3	Hoby Milner	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	2.40	0.93
current	CHC	4	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	4.26	1.82
current	CHC	5	Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	12.00	2.17
current	CHC	6	Yacksel Ríos	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
simulation	ARI	1	Merrill Kelly	Starter	4.0	6	3	3	4	3	0	22	99	6.75	9.20	2.25
simulation	ARI	2	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	22	0.00	0.00	0.00
simulation	ARI	3	Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	0	5	23	9.00	10.80	2.40
simulation	ARI	4	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	6	0.00	0.00	0.43
simulation	ARI	5	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	2	1	1	1	5	26	18.00	9.00	2.00
simulation	CHC	1	Matthew Boyd	Starter	4.0	5	2	2	3	5	0	20	92	4.50	7.00	1.44
simulation	CHC	2	Ben Brown	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	14	0.00	1.82	0.97
simulation	CHC	3	Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	12.00	2.17
simulation	CHC	4	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	4	14	9.00	4.26	1.82
simulation	CHC	5	Hoby Milner	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	1	5	21	0.00	2.40	0.93
simulation	CHC	6	Yacksel Ríos	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	12	0.00	0.00	0.00

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ARI	Merrill Kelly	Starter	4.0	3	6	4	3	22	99
ARI	Paul Sewald	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	22
ARI	Juan Morillo	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	5	23
ARI	Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	6
ARI	Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	1	5	26
CHC	Matthew Boyd	Starter	4.0	2	5	3	5	20	92
CHC	Ben Brown	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	14
CHC	Phil Maton	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	17
CHC	Jacob Webb	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	4	14
CHC	Hoby Milner	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	0	5	21
CHC	Yacksel Ríos	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	12

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260503_ATL@COL

20260503_ATL@COL.json • 2026-05-03

ATL 5 - COL 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 94INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match COL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match COL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match COL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=44 matches COL BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=35 matches ATL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.620.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.620.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.380.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 11, COL 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 5 - COL 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ATL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.62, 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.6432090157948079, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'file': '20260502_ATL@COL.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_ATL@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@COL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 127.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 198.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 127.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 198.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 5 - 3 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 5 - 3 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 5-3.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.620.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 5-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 14/34 = 0.412.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 8/34 = 0.235.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match COL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match COL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match COL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=44 matches COL BF=44.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match ATL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=35 matches ATL BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.620.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.620.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.380.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ATL 11, COL 5.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ATL 5 - COL 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for ATL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.62, 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.6432090157948079, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'file': '20260502_ATL@COL.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_ATL@COL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ATL@COL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 127.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 198.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 127.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 198.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ATL 5 - 3 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ATL 5 - 3 COL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 5-3.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.620.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 5-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 14/34 = 0.412.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 8/34 = 0.235.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.585331439971924	3.0555899143218994		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	3		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	6	3	0.620	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
capped_target	6	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	5	11
COL	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	5

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ATL	batting	38	11	1	0	0	5	5	6	7	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		5			1		3	2	3					9.0	3	0	0
current	COL	batting	32	5	2	0	1	3	3	2	3	0	1	0	0
current	COL	pitching		11			0		5	6	7					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	ATL	batting	38	11	1	0	0	5	5	6	7	0	0
simulation	ATL	pitching		5			1		3	2	3					9.0	3	35	127
simulation	COL	batting	32	5	2	0	1	3	3	2	3	0	1
simulation	COL	pitching		11			0		5	6	7					9.0	5	44	198

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	ATL		RF	José Azocar	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	ATL		C	Jonah Heim	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	5	3	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.600
current	ATL		LF	Eli White	5	1	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	0.200
current	ATL		SS	Jorge Mateo	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	5	2	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.400
current	ATL		CF	Mauricio Dubón	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	ATL		DH	Drake Baldwin	3	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	0.333
current	COL		RF	Troy Johnston	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	COL		C	Brett Sullivan	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	COL		SS	Ezequiel Tovar	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	COL		DH	Hunter Goodman	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.250
current	COL		1B	TJ Rumfield	3	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
current	COL		LF	Mickey Moniak	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
current	COL		3B	Willi Castro	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	COL		2B	Edouard Julien	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	COL		CF	Jake McCarthy	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	ATL	1	CF	Mauricio Dubón	4	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	2	DH	Drake Baldwin	3	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	0.333
simulation	ATL	3	2B	Ozzie Albies	5	3	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.600
simulation	ATL	4	1B	Matt Olson	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	5	3B	Austin Riley	5	2	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	ATL	6	LF	Eli White	5	1	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	ATL	7	C	Jonah Heim	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	ATL	8	SS	Jorge Mateo	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	9	RF	José Azocar	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	COL	1	2B	Edouard Julien	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	COL	2	LF	Mickey Moniak	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	COL	3	DH	Hunter Goodman	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	COL	4	1B	TJ Rumfield	3	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	COL	5	RF	Troy Johnston	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	COL	6	3B	Willi Castro	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	COL	7	C	Brett Sullivan	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	COL	8	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	COL	9	CF	Jake McCarthy	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ATL	1	Spencer Strider	Starter	4.0	5	3	3	2	3	1	0	0	6.75
current	ATL	3	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	3.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.29	1.14
current	ATL	4	Aaron Bummer	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.35	1.35
current	ATL	6	Reynaldo López	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.42	1.31
current	COL	1	Kyle Freeland	Starter	4.0	3	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	0.00	3.48	1.11
current	COL	2	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.46	0.71
current	COL	3	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	9.00	4.50	1.83
current	COL	4	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.77	1.08
current	COL	5	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	18.00	5.87	1.83
current	COL	6	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	18.00	7.82	2.05
simulation	ATL	1	Spencer Strider	Starter	4.0	5	3	3	2	3	1	25	90	6.75
simulation	ATL	2	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	3.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	15	0.00	1.29	1.14
simulation	ATL	3	Aaron Bummer	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	12	0.00	4.35	1.35
simulation	ATL	4	Reynaldo López	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	10	0.00	3.42	1.31
simulation	COL	1	Kyle Freeland	Starter	4.0	3	0	0	3	3	0	18	88	0.00	3.48	1.11
simulation	COL	2	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	0	7	25	18.00	7.82	2.05
simulation	COL	3	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	5	20	0.00	0.46	0.71
simulation	COL	4	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	17	0.00	2.77	1.08
simulation	COL	5	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	1	1	0	7	26	18.00	5.87	1.83
simulation	COL	6	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	4	22	9.00	4.50	1.83

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ATL	Spencer Strider	Starter	4.0	3	5	2	3	25	90
ATL	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	3.0	0	0	0	0	4	15
ATL	Aaron Bummer	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	12
ATL	Reynaldo López	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	10
COL	Kyle Freeland	Starter	4.0	0	3	3	3	18	88
COL	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	3	1	0	7	25
COL	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	5	20
COL	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17
COL	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	3	1	1	7	26
COL	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	2	4	22

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260503_BAL@NYY

20260503_BAL@NYY.json • 2026-05-03

BAL 4 - NYY 7

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 95INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match NYY pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match NYY pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=37 matches NYY BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match BAL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match BAL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=39 matches BAL BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.299.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.701.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.701.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 5, NYY 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 4 - NYY 7.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYY.	{'winner_confidence': 0.7009111483894599, 'h2h_net_margin': 10, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.7233384975742907, 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 5, 'file': '20260502_BAL@NYY.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_BAL@NYY.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@NYY.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 4 - 7 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 4 - 7 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 7-4.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.701.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYY wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 4-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-7, final 4-7 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 7-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 11/33 = 0.333.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 14/33 = 0.424.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYY	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYY hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYY	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match NYY pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match NYY pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match NYY pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match NYY pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=37 matches NYY BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting walks match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting home runs match BAL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting hits match BAL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYY batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYY PA=39 matches BAL BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYY	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYY runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYY current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYY current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYY current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYY hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYY	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.299.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.701.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.701.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: BAL 5, NYY 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: BAL 4 - NYY 7.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYY.	{'winner_confidence': 0.7009111483894599, 'h2h_net_margin': 10, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'NYY', 'confidence': 0.7233384975742907, 'actual_winner': 'NYY', 'actual_margin': 5, 'file': '20260502_BAL@NYY.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_BAL@NYY.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: BAL@NYY.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYY	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYY pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYY pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYY	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYY includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYY	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYY pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: BAL 4 - 7 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: BAL 4 - 7 NYY.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYY wins 7-4.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.701.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 8/10 (0.800).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYY wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYY wins 4-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-7.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-7, final 4-7 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYY wins 7-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 11/33 = 0.333.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYY recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYY	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYY wins and win_pct agree: 14/33 = 0.424.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYY	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.79638671875	5.334231853485107		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	7	0.701	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
capped_target	4	7		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	7		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	4	5
NYY	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	2	0	7	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	BAL	batting	32	5	0	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	2	0	0
current	BAL	pitching		8			1		7	6	11					8.0	7	0	0
current	NYY	batting	32	8	2	0	1	7	7	6	11	0	1	0	0
current	NYY	pitching		5			1		4	3	7					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	BAL	batting	32	5	0	0	1	4	4	3	7	0	2
simulation	BAL	pitching		8			1		7	6	11					8.0	7	39	171
simulation	NYY	batting	32	8	2	0	1	7	7	6	11	0	1
simulation	NYY	pitching		5			1		4	3	7					9.0	4	37	151

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	BAL		RF	Tyler O'Neill	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	BAL		DH	Pete Alonso	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	BAL		C	Adley Rutschman	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.000
current	BAL		2B	Jeremiah Jackson	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.250
current	BAL		LF	Taylor Ward	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	BAL		1B	Coby Mayo	4	2	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0.500
current	BAL		CF	Leody Taveras	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	BAL		SS	Blaze Alexander	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	BAL		3B	Weston Wilson	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
current	NYY		2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
current	NYY		DH	Jasson Domínguez	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	0.250
current	NYY		1B	Ben Rice	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
current	NYY		C	Austin Wells	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
current	NYY		3B	Ryan McMahon	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	NYY		CF	Trent Grisham	5	2	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.400
current	NYY		SS	José Caballero	3	1	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	0.333
current	NYY		RF	Aaron Judge	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0.000
current	NYY		LF	Cody Bellinger	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	BAL	1	LF	Taylor Ward	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	2	C	Adley Rutschman	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	BAL	3	DH	Pete Alonso	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	BAL	4	RF	Tyler O'Neill	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	BAL	5	1B	Coby Mayo	4	2	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	BAL	6	CF	Leody Taveras	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	BAL	7	2B	Jeremiah Jackson	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	BAL	8	3B	Weston Wilson	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	9	SS	Blaze Alexander	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	1	CF	Trent Grisham	5	2	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	NYY	2	1B	Ben Rice	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	3	RF	Aaron Judge	3	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	0.000
simulation	NYY	4	LF	Cody Bellinger	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	NYY	5	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	6	DH	Jasson Domínguez	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	0.250
simulation	NYY	7	C	Austin Wells	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	NYY	8	3B	Ryan McMahon	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYY	9	SS	José Caballero	3	1	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	BAL	1	Kyle Bradish	Starter	4.0	5	5	5	5	7	1	0	0	11.25	5.03	1.82
current	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1.00
current	BAL	3	Anthony Nunez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.35	0.98
current	BAL	4	Keegan Akin	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	18.00	21.00	3.00
current	BAL	5	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.66	0.37
current	NYY	1	Max Fried	Starter	6.0	2	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	0.00	2.09	0.80
current	NYY	3	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.76	1.43
current	NYY	4	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.55	1.66
current	NYY	5	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	4	4	1	0	1	0	0	36.00	3.09	1.54
simulation	BAL	1	Kyle Bradish	Starter	4.0	5	5	5	5	7	1	22	107	11.25	5.03	1.82
simulation	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	15	0.00	0.00	1.00
simulation	BAL	3	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	12	0.00	0.66	0.37
simulation	BAL	4	Anthony Nunez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	10	0.00	2.35	0.98
simulation	BAL	5	Keegan Akin	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	1	1	0	7	27	18.00	21.00	3.00
simulation	NYY	1	Max Fried	Starter	6.0	2	0	0	1	6	0	22	88	0.00	2.09	0.80
simulation	NYY	2	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	25	0.00	3.55	1.66
simulation	NYY	3	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	4	4	1	0	1	7	26	36.00	3.09	1.54
simulation	NYY	4	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	12	0.00	1.76	1.43

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
BAL	Kyle Bradish	Starter	4.0	5	5	5	7	22	107
BAL	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	15
BAL	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	12
BAL	Anthony Nunez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	4	10
BAL	Keegan Akin	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	3	1	1	7	27
NYY	Max Fried	Starter	6.0	0	2	1	6	22	88
NYY	David Bednar	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	25
NYY	Fernando Cruz	Middle Reliever	1.0	4	2	1	0	7	26
NYY	Brent Headrick	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	12

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260503_CHW@SD

20260503_CHW@SD.json • 2026-05-03

CHW 5 - SD 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 94INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match SD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match SD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 18.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=43 matches SD BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match CHW pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match CHW pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match CHW pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=51 matches CHW BF=51.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.593.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.593.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.407.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.263/0.625.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 11 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 6, SD 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 5 - SD 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CHW.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5925681901859321, 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'confidence': 0.5913385371588242, 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 6, 'file': '20260502_CHW@SD.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_CHW@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@SD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 208.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 193.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 208.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 193.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 5 - 4 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 5 - 4 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHW wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.593.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CHW wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHW wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHW wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 8/33 = 0.242.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 11/32 = 0.344.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	current:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SD	BATTING_REALISM	current:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CHW	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CHW hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CHW	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting walks match SD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting home runs match SD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting hits match SD pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CHW batting strikeouts match SD pitching: 18.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CHW PA=43 matches SD BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CHW	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CHW runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SD batting walks match CHW pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SD batting home runs match CHW pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SD batting hits match CHW pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SD batting strikeouts match CHW pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SD PA=51 matches CHW BF=51.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CHW current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CHW current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CHW current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CHW hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CHW	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.593.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.593.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.407.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.263/0.625.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 11 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CHW 6, SD 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CHW 5 - SD 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CHW.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5925681901859321, 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'CHW', 'confidence': 0.5913385371588242, 'actual_winner': 'CHW', 'actual_margin': 6, 'file': '20260502_CHW@SD.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_CHW@SD.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CHW@SD.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 208.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 193.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CHW	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CHW pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 208.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 193.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CHW pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CHW	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CHW includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CHW	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CHW pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 11.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CHW 5 - 4 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CHW 5 - 4 SD.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CHW wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.593.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CHW wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CHW wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CHW wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 11).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CHW recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CHW	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CHW wins and win_pct agree: 8/33 = 0.242.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SD wins and win_pct agree: 11/32 = 0.344.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	CHW	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.744889974594116	4.594590663909912		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	3	0.593	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
capped_target	5	3		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R	H
CHW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	5	6
SD	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CHW	batting	39	6	2	0	1	5	5	2	18	0	2	0	0
current	CHW	pitching		10			0		4	8	10					11.0	4	0	0
current	SD	batting	43	10	0	0	0	4	4	8	10	0	0	0	0
current	SD	pitching		6			1		5	2	18					11.0	5	0	0
simulation	CHW	batting	39	6	2	0	1	5	5	2	18	0	2
simulation	CHW	pitching		10			0		4	8	10					11.0	4	51	208
simulation	SD	batting	43	10	0	0	0	4	4	8	10	0	0
simulation	SD	pitching		6			1		5	2	18					11.0	5	43	193

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	CHW		C	Drew Romo	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	1	0.000
current	CHW		RF	Jarred Kelenic	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
current	CHW		LF	Sam Antonacci	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	CHW		1B	Munetaka Murakami	4	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	0.000
current	CHW		3B	Colson Montgomery	5	3	2	1	1	4	0	2	0	0.600
current	CHW		2B	Chase Meidroth	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	1	0.250
current	CHW		DH	Andrew Benintendi	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.400
current	CHW		CF	Tristan Peters	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	CHW		SS	Luisangel Acuña	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	SD		DH	Miguel Andujar	6	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.167
current	SD		CF	Jackson Merrill	6	2	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	0.333
current	SD		C	Freddy Fermin	3	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.333
current	SD		3B	Manny Machado	5	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.400
current	SD		SS	Xander Bogaerts	5	2	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.400
current	SD		LF	Ramón Laureano	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.200
current	SD		2B	Jake Cronenworth	3	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.333
current	SD		1B	Ty France	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	SD		RF	Nick Castellanos	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	1	LF	Sam Antonacci	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	2	1B	Munetaka Murakami	4	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	3	DH	Andrew Benintendi	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	CHW	4	3B	Colson Montgomery	5	3	2	1	1	4	0	2	0	0.600
simulation	CHW	5	2B	Chase Meidroth	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	1	0.250
simulation	CHW	6	RF	Jarred Kelenic	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	7	CF	Tristan Peters	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	8	SS	Luisangel Acuña	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CHW	9	C	Drew Romo	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	1	0.000
simulation	SD	1	LF	Ramón Laureano	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.200
simulation	SD	2	DH	Miguel Andujar	6	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.167
simulation	SD	3	CF	Jackson Merrill	6	2	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	0.333
simulation	SD	4	3B	Manny Machado	5	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.400
simulation	SD	5	SS	Xander Bogaerts	5	2	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.400
simulation	SD	6	1B	Ty France	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	SD	7	RF	Nick Castellanos	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	SD	8	C	Freddy Fermin	3	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.333
simulation	SD	9	2B	Jake Cronenworth	3	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CHW	1	Anthony Kay	Starter	4.0	6	2	2	5	3	0	0	0	4.50	6.12	1.68
current	CHW	2	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.54	1.63
current	CHW	3	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.42	1.26
current	CHW	4	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	27.00	6.00
current	CHW	5	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	9.00	7.71	1.71
current	CHW	6	Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	9.00	13.50	3.00
current	CHW	7	Jordan Leasure	Reliever	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00
current	SD	1	Griffin Canning	Starter	4.0	2	1	1	1	11	0	0	0	2.25
current	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	5.62	1.44
current	SD	4	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.76	1.17
current	SD	5	Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.25	0.88
current	SD	6	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.17	0.59
current	SD	7	Ron Marinaccio	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	18.00	5.30	1.50
current	SD	8	Jeremiah Estrada	Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00
current	SD	9	Wandy Peralta	Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	18.00
simulation	CHW	1	Anthony Kay	Starter	4.0	6	2	2	5	3	0	23	96	4.50	6.12	1.68
simulation	CHW	2	Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	2	1	0	5	28	9.00	13.50	3.00
simulation	CHW	3	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	12	0.00	1.42	1.26
simulation	CHW	4	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	0	4	19	9.00	7.71	1.71
simulation	CHW	5	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	5	17	0.00	27.00	6.00
simulation	CHW	6	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	16	0.00	1.54	1.63
simulation	CHW	7	Jordan Leasure	Reliever	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	7	20	0.00	4.00	1.00
simulation	SD	1	Griffin Canning	Starter	4.0	2	1	1	1	11	0	15	81	2.25
simulation	SD	2	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	12	0.00	1.17	0.59
simulation	SD	3	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	17	0.00	5.62	1.44
simulation	SD	4	Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	2.25	0.88
simulation	SD	5	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	14	0.00	1.76	1.17
simulation	SD	6	Ron Marinaccio	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	1	6	21	18.00	5.30	1.50
simulation	SD	7	Jeremiah Estrada	Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	18	0.00	4.50	1.25
simulation	SD	8	Wandy Peralta	Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	0	5	15	18.00	3.52	1.37

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CHW	Anthony Kay	Starter	4.0	2	6	5	3	23	96
CHW	Seranthony Domínguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	2	1	5	28
CHW	Grant Taylor	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	12
CHW	Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	2	4	19
CHW	Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	1	5	17
CHW	Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	16
CHW	Jordan Leasure	Reliever	2.0	0	1	0	1	7	20
SD	Griffin Canning	Starter	4.0	1	2	1	11	15	81
SD	Mason Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	12
SD	Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	17
SD	Jason Adam	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	15
SD	Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	4	14
SD	Ron Marinaccio	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	0	0	6	21
SD	Jeremiah Estrada	Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	18
SD	Wandy Peralta	Reliever	1.0	2	2	0	1	5	15

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260503_CIN@PIT

20260503_CIN@PIT.json • 2026-05-03

CIN 3 - PIT 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 94INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match PIT pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match PIT pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=41 matches PIT BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match CIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match CIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match CIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=43 matches CIN BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.343.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.657.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.657.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.412/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 9, PIT 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 3 - PIT 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for PIT.	{'winner_confidence': 0.6565711913499197, 'h2h_net_margin': 23, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.5655169040380946, 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 10, 'file': '20260502_CIN@PIT.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_CIN@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@PIT.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 180.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 180.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 3 - 5 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 3 - 5 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.657.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PIT wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 11/33 = 0.333.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 10/34 = 0.294.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match PIT pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match PIT pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match PIT pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=41 matches PIT BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match CIN pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match CIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match CIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=43 matches CIN BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.343.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.657.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.657.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.412/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CIN 9, PIT 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CIN 3 - PIT 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for PIT.	{'winner_confidence': 0.6565711913499197, 'h2h_net_margin': 23, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.5655169040380946, 'actual_winner': 'PIT', 'actual_margin': 10, 'file': '20260502_CIN@PIT.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_CIN@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CIN@PIT.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 180.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 180.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CIN 3 - 5 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CIN 3 - 5 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PIT wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.657.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PIT wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PIT wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PIT wins 5-3 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 11/33 = 0.333.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 10/34 = 0.294.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.1578450202941895	6.122939109802246		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	6		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	5	0.657	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
capped_target	3	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
CIN	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	9
PIT	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	5	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CIN	batting	39	9	1	0	1	3	3	2	10	0	0	0	0
current	CIN	pitching		8			1		5	3	9					10.0	5	0	0
current	PIT	batting	38	8	1	0	1	5	5	3	9	0	2	0	0
current	PIT	pitching		9			1		3	2	10					10.0	3	0	0
simulation	CIN	batting	39	9	1	0	1	3	3	2	10	0	0
simulation	CIN	pitching		8			1		5	3	9					10.0	5	43	170
simulation	PIT	batting	38	8	1	0	1	5	5	3	9	0	2
simulation	PIT	pitching		9			1		3	2	10					10.0	3	41	180

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	CIN		CF	TJ Friedl	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.400
current	CIN		SS	Elly De La Cruz	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.200
current	CIN		LF	JJ Bleday	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
current	CIN		2B	Matt McLain	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
current	CIN		DH	Nathaniel Lowe	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.250
current	CIN		3B	Sal Stewart	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.200
current	CIN		RF	Will Benson	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
current	CIN		C	Jose Trevino	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	CIN		1B	Spencer Steer	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	PIT		1B	Spencer Horwitz	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
current	PIT		3B	Nick Gonzales	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.400
current	PIT		RF	Ryan O'Hearn	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.200
current	PIT		DH	Marcell Ozuna	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
current	PIT		2B	Brandon Lowe	5	2	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
current	PIT		SS	Konnor Griffin	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
current	PIT		LF	Bryan Reynolds	4	1	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0.250
current	PIT		C	Joey Bart	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	PIT		CF	Oneil Cruz	4	2	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	CIN	1	CF	TJ Friedl	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	CIN	2	LF	JJ Bleday	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	CIN	3	SS	Elly De La Cruz	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.200
simulation	CIN	4	3B	Sal Stewart	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	CIN	5	DH	Nathaniel Lowe	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	CIN	6	1B	Spencer Steer	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	7	RF	Will Benson	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	CIN	8	C	Jose Trevino	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	9	2B	Matt McLain	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	1	CF	Oneil Cruz	4	2	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	PIT	2	2B	Brandon Lowe	5	2	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	PIT	3	LF	Bryan Reynolds	4	1	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	PIT	4	RF	Ryan O'Hearn	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	PIT	5	3B	Nick Gonzales	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	PIT	6	DH	Marcell Ozuna	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	7	1B	Spencer Horwitz	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	PIT	8	SS	Konnor Griffin	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	9	C	Joey Bart	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CIN	1	Chase Burns	Starter	5.0	4	1	1	2	6	0	0	0	1.80	2.65	1.12
current	CIN	2	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.52	1.50
current	CIN	3	Connor Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.04	1.36
current	CIN	4	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	18.00	5.40	1.35
current	CIN	5	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.98	1.10
current	CIN	7	Luis Mey	Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	18.00
current	PIT	1	Braxton Ashcraft	Starter	5.0	6	3	3	1	5	1	0	0	5.40	3.71	1.15
current	PIT	2	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.38	1.35
current	PIT	4	Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.07	1.16
current	PIT	5	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.72	0.77
current	PIT	6	Isaac Mattson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.78	1.44
simulation	CIN	1	Chase Burns	Starter	5.0	4	1	1	2	6	0	22	92	1.80	2.65	1.12
simulation	CIN	2	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	0	7	28	18.00	5.40	1.35
simulation	CIN	3	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	8	0.00	1.98	1.10
simulation	CIN	4	Connor Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	10	0.00	2.04	1.36
simulation	CIN	5	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	16	0.00	3.52	1.50
simulation	CIN	6	Luis Mey	Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	1	5	16	18.00	3.00	1.00
simulation	PIT	1	Braxton Ashcraft	Starter	5.0	6	3	3	1	5	1	22	100	5.40	3.71	1.15
simulation	PIT	2	Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.07	1.16
simulation	PIT	3	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	0	5	25	0.00	1.72	0.77
simulation	PIT	4	Isaac Mattson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	12	0.00	3.78	1.44
simulation	PIT	5	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	2.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	7	26	0.00	3.38	1.35

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CIN	Chase Burns	Starter	5.0	1	4	2	6	22	92
CIN	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	1	1	7	28
CIN	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	8
CIN	Connor Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	10
CIN	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	16
CIN	Luis Mey	Reliever	1.0	2	2	0	0	5	16
PIT	Braxton Ashcraft	Starter	5.0	3	6	1	5	22	100
PIT	Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	17
PIT	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	2	5	25
PIT	Isaac Mattson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	12
PIT	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	1	0	2	7	26

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260503_CLE@OAK

20260503_CLE@OAK.json • 2026-05-03

CLE 5 - OAK 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 94INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match OAK pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=42 matches OAK BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match CLE pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=40 matches CLE BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.563.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.563.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.437.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.381/0.862.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 10, OAK 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 5 - OAK 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CLE.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5630453160282354, 'h2h_net_margin': 11, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'confidence': 0.5995344083319505, 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 3, 'file': '20260502_CLE@OAK.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_CLE@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@OAK.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 5 - 4 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 5 - 4 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.563.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CLE wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 13/34 = 0.382.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 10/33 = 0.303.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	current:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CLE	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CLE hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CLE	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting walks match OAK pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting home runs match OAK pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting hits match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CLE batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CLE PA=42 matches OAK BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CLE	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CLE runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match CLE pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match CLE pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match CLE pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=40 matches CLE BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CLE current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CLE current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CLE current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CLE hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CLE	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.563.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.563.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.437.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.381/0.862.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 10 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: CLE 10, OAK 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: CLE 5 - OAK 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for CLE.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5630453160282354, 'h2h_net_margin': 11, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'confidence': 0.5995344083319505, 'actual_winner': 'CLE', 'actual_margin': 3, 'file': '20260502_CLE@OAK.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_CLE@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: CLE@OAK.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 155.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CLE	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CLE pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 155.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CLE pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CLE	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CLE includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CLE	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CLE pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 10.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: CLE 5 - 4 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: CLE 5 - 4 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: CLE wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.563.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: CLE wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: CLE wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: CLE wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10).
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CLE recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CLE	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CLE wins and win_pct agree: 13/34 = 0.382.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 10/33 = 0.303.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	CLE	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.02081298828125	5.3187055587768555		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.563	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
CLE	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	5	10
OAK	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	4	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	CLE	batting	40	10	3	0	0	5	5	2	10	0	0	0	0
current	CLE	pitching		9			1		4	1	10					10.0	4	0	0
current	OAK	batting	38	9	1	1	1	4	4	1	10	1	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		10			0		5	2	10					10.0	5	0	0
simulation	CLE	batting	40	10	3	0	0	5	5	2	10	0	0
simulation	CLE	pitching		9			1		4	1	10					10.0	4	40	155
simulation	OAK	batting	38	9	1	1	1	4	4	1	10	1	0
simulation	OAK	pitching		10			0		5	2	10					10.0	5	42	171

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	CLE		CF	Petey Halpin	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
current	CLE		1B	Kyle Manzardo	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.200
current	CLE		DH	José Ramírez	5	2	2	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.400
current	CLE		RF	Chase DeLauter	5	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.400
current	CLE		3B	Daniel Schneemann	4	2	1	0	0	1	3	1	0	0.500
current	CLE		2B	Travis Bazzana	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
current	CLE		LF	Steven Kwan	5	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.400
current	CLE		SS	Brayan Rocchio	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	CLE		C	Austin Hedges	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	OAK		1B	Nick Kurtz	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	0.200
current	OAK		C	Austin Wynns	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	OAK		LF	Tyler Soderstrom	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		2B	Jeff McNeil	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
current	OAK		RF	Colby Thomas	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
current	OAK		DH	Brent Rooker	5	2	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	0.400
current	OAK		SS	Jacob Wilson	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		CF	Zack Gelof	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	OAK		3B	Darell Hernaiz	4	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	CLE	1	LF	Steven Kwan	5	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	CLE	2	RF	Chase DeLauter	5	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.400
simulation	CLE	3	DH	José Ramírez	5	2	2	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.400
simulation	CLE	4	1B	Kyle Manzardo	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.200
simulation	CLE	5	3B	Daniel Schneemann	4	2	1	0	0	1	3	1	0	0.500
simulation	CLE	6	2B	Travis Bazzana	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	CLE	7	CF	Petey Halpin	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	CLE	8	C	Austin Hedges	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	CLE	9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	OAK	1	SS	Jacob Wilson	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	OAK	2	DH	Brent Rooker	5	2	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	0.400
simulation	OAK	3	1B	Nick Kurtz	5	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	0.200
simulation	OAK	4	RF	Colby Thomas	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	OAK	5	CF	Zack Gelof	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	OAK	6	LF	Tyler Soderstrom	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	OAK	7	C	Austin Wynns	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	OAK	8	3B	Darell Hernaiz	4	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	OAK	9	2B	Jeff McNeil	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	CLE	1	Parker Messick	Starter	6.0	4	2	2	1	5	1	0	0	3.00	1.73	0.88
current	CLE	3	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.52	1.30
current	CLE	4	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.45	0.89
current	CLE	5	Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	18.00	7.94	1.76
current	CLE	7	Peyton Pallette	Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00
current	OAK	1	Aaron Civale	Starter	5.0	5	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	1.80	3.23	1.30
current	OAK	2	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.89	1.66
current	OAK	3	Jack Perkins	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.70	1.05
current	OAK	4	Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	1.0	4	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	27.00	2.31	1.11
current	OAK	5	Justin Sterner	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	9.00	4.86	1.56
current	OAK	6	Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	6.23	1.77
simulation	CLE	1	Parker Messick	Starter	6.0	4	2	2	1	5	1	23	91	3.00	1.73	0.88
simulation	CLE	2	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	3.52	1.30
simulation	CLE	3	Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	0	6	19	18.00	7.94	1.76
simulation	CLE	4	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	16	0.00	2.45	0.89
simulation	CLE	5	Peyton Pallette	Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	18	0.00	3.55	1.26
simulation	OAK	1	Aaron Civale	Starter	5.0	5	1	1	0	4	0	20	76	1.80	3.23	1.30
simulation	OAK	2	Jack Perkins	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.70	1.05
simulation	OAK	3	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	14	0.00	2.89	1.66
simulation	OAK	4	Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	1.0	4	3	3	0	0	0	7	24	27.00	2.31	1.11
simulation	OAK	5	Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	18	0.00	6.23	1.77
simulation	OAK	6	Justin Sterner	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	0	5	26	9.00	4.86	1.56

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
CLE	Parker Messick	Starter	6.0	2	4	1	5	23	91
CLE	Cade Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	11
CLE	Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	3	0	1	6	19
CLE	Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	16
CLE	Peyton Pallette	Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	18
OAK	Aaron Civale	Starter	5.0	1	5	0	4	20	76
OAK	Jack Perkins	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
OAK	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	14
OAK	Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	4	0	0	7	24
OAK	Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	18
OAK	Justin Sterner	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	2	5	26

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260503_HOU@BOS

20260503_HOU@BOS.json • 2026-05-03

HOU 5 - BOS 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 94INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match HOU pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match HOU pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match HOU pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=39 matches HOU BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match BOS pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match BOS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match BOS pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=41 matches BOS BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.452.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 11, BOS 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 5 - BOS 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.6, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'opponent_team': 'HOU', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-05-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-04-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'HOU'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'confidence': 0.5647864126059523, 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260502_HOU@BOS.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 4 - 5 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'HOU 5 - 6 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_HOU@BOS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@BOS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 184.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 184.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 5 - 6 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 5 - 6 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 6-5.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.548.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 9/33 = 0.273.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 15/34 = 0.441.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	current:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BOS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BOS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BOS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting walks match HOU pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting home runs match HOU pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting hits match HOU pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BOS batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BOS PA=39 matches HOU BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BOS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BOS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match BOS pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match BOS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match BOS pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match BOS pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=41 matches BOS BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BOS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BOS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BOS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BOS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BOS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.452.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.548.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 11, BOS 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 5 - BOS 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BOS; cap=0.6, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BOS', 'opponent_team': 'HOU', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'HOU'}, {'date': '2026-05-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 3, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'BOS'}, {'date': '2026-04-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'HOU'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'HOU', 'confidence': 0.5647864126059523, 'actual_winner': 'HOU', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260502_HOU@BOS.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'BOS', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'BOS', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 4, 'home_runs': 5, 'score_text': 'HOU 4 - 5 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 6, 'score_text': 'HOU 5 - 6 BOS', 'winner': 'BOS'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 1, 'home_run_delta': 1, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_HOU@BOS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@BOS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 169.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 184.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BOS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BOS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 184.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 169.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BOS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BOS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BOS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BOS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BOS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 5 - 6 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 5 - 6 BOS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BOS wins 6-5.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.548.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BOS wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BOS wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BOS wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BOS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BOS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BOS wins and win_pct agree: 9/33 = 0.273.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 15/34 = 0.441.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	BOS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.00702428817749	5.415397644042969		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.548	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	5	11
BOS	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	6	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	HOU	batting	38	11	2	0	2	5	5	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	HOU	pitching		6			0		6	7	5					8.2	6	0	0
current	BOS	batting	31	6	3	0	0	6	6	7	5	1	0	0	0
current	BOS	pitching		11			2		5	3	8					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	HOU	batting	38	11	2	0	2	5	5	3	8	0	0
simulation	HOU	pitching		6			0		6	7	5					8.2	6	39	169
simulation	BOS	batting	31	6	3	0	0	6	6	7	5	1	0
simulation	BOS	pitching		11			2		5	3	8					9.0	5	41	184

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	HOU		1B	Christian Walker	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.500
current	HOU		DH	Yordan Alvarez	5	2	1	1	1	2	0	1	0.400
current	HOU		3B	Isaac Paredes	5	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.200
current	HOU		SS	Carlos Correa	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	HOU		CF	Brice Matthews	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	HOU		RF	Cam Smith	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	HOU		2B	Jose Altuve	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.400
current	HOU		C	Christian Vázquez	4	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.750
current	HOU		LF	Dustin Harris	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
current	BOS		DH	Roman Anthony	5	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	0.200
current	BOS		2B	Marcelo Mayer	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	BOS		LF	Jarren Duran	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	BOS		CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
current	BOS		RF	Wilyer Abreu	3	2	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.667
current	BOS		1B	Willson Contreras	3	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0.000
current	BOS		3B	Caleb Durbin	1	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0.000
current	BOS		SS	Andruw Monasterio	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
current	BOS		C	Carlos Narváez	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	HOU	1	SS	Carlos Correa	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	HOU	2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	5	2	1	1	1	2	0	1	0.400
simulation	HOU	3	3B	Isaac Paredes	5	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.200
simulation	HOU	4	1B	Christian Walker	4	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	HOU	5	2B	Jose Altuve	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	HOU	6	CF	Brice Matthews	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	HOU	7	RF	Cam Smith	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	HOU	8	C	Christian Vázquez	4	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.750
simulation	HOU	9	LF	Dustin Harris	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	BOS	1	LF	Jarren Duran	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	BOS	2	1B	Willson Contreras	3	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	3	DH	Roman Anthony	5	1	1	0	1	2	0	1	0.200
simulation	BOS	4	RF	Wilyer Abreu	3	2	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	BOS	5	SS	Andruw Monasterio	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	BOS	6	2B	Marcelo Mayer	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	BOS	7	CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	BOS	8	C	Carlos Narváez	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	BOS	9	3B	Caleb Durbin	1	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	HOU	1	Cody Bolton	Starter	5.0	4	4	4	4	2	0	0	0	7.20	5.79	1.71
current	HOU	2	Bryan King	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.29	1.32
current	HOU	3	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	5.54	1.38
current	HOU	4	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.50	1.21
current	HOU	5	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	27.00	12.54	2.79
current	BOS	1	Ranger Suarez	Starter	5.0	4	2	2	2	4	1	0	0	3.60	3.09	0.94
current	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.93	0.93
current	BOS	3	Danny Coulombe	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	5.62	1.50
current	BOS	4	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	0	0	0	18.00	3.00	1.25
current	BOS	5	Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	5.11	1.46
simulation	HOU	1	Cody Bolton	Starter	5.0	4	4	4	4	2	0	23	100	7.20	5.79	1.71
simulation	HOU	2	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	5.54	1.38
simulation	HOU	3	Bryan King	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	17	0.00	3.29	1.32
simulation	HOU	4	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	15	0.00	4.50	1.21
simulation	HOU	5	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	2	2	2	0	0	5	24	27.00	12.54	2.79
simulation	BOS	1	Ranger Suarez	Starter	5.0	4	2	2	2	4	1	21	91	3.60	3.09	0.94
simulation	BOS	2	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	16	0.00	0.93	0.93
simulation	BOS	3	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	0	6	29	18.00	3.00	1.25
simulation	BOS	4	Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	0	6	29	0.00	5.11	1.46
simulation	BOS	5	Danny Coulombe	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	1	4	19	9.00	5.62	1.50

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
HOU	Cody Bolton	Starter	5.0	4	4	4	2	23	100
HOU	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
HOU	Bryan King	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
HOU	Steven Okert	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	15
HOU	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	1	2	0	5	24
BOS	Ranger Suarez	Starter	5.0	2	4	2	4	21	91
BOS	Aroldis Chapman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
BOS	Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	3	0	1	6	29
BOS	Greg Weissert	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	1	1	6	29
BOS	Danny Coulombe	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	19

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260503_KC@SEA

20260503_KC@SEA.json • 2026-05-03

KC 5 - SEA 2

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 94INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match SEA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match SEA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match SEA pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=43 matches SEA BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match KC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=34 matches KC BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.627.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.627.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.373.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.263/0.625.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 13, SEA 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 5 - SEA 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for KC.	{'winner_confidence': 0.6272595762448019, 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'confidence': 0.5722639237756839, 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'file': '20260502_KC@SEA.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_KC@SEA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@SEA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 5 - 2 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 5 - 2 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: KC wins 5-2.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.627.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: KC wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: KC wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: KC wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 10/33 = 0.303.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 8/34 = 0.235.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	current:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SEA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SEA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SEA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match SEA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match SEA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match SEA pitching: 13.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match SEA pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=43 matches SEA BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting walks match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting home runs match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting hits match KC pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SEA batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SEA PA=34 matches KC BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SEA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SEA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SEA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SEA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SEA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SEA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SEA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.627.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.627.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.373.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.263/0.625.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 13, SEA 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 5 - SEA 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for KC.	{'winner_confidence': 0.6272595762448019, 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'confidence': 0.5722639237756839, 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 1, 'file': '20260502_KC@SEA.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_KC@SEA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@SEA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 162.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SEA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SEA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 162.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SEA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SEA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SEA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SEA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SEA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 5 - 2 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 5 - 2 SEA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: KC wins 5-2.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.627.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: KC wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: KC wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: KC wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 10/33 = 0.303.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SEA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SEA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SEA wins and win_pct agree: 8/34 = 0.235.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SEA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.906935453414917	4.9994354248046875		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.627	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	5	13
SEA	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	4

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	KC	batting	40	13	4	0	5	5	3	4	0	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		4				2	3	9					9.0	2	0	0
current	SEA	batting	31	4	2	0	2	2	3	9	0	0	0	0
current	SEA	pitching		13				5	3	4					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	KC	batting	40	13	4	0	5	5	3	4	0	0
simulation	KC	pitching		4				2	3	9					9.0	2	34	151
simulation	SEA	batting	31	4	2	0	2	2	3	9	0	0
simulation	SEA	pitching		13				5	3	4					9.0	5	43	162

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	KC		SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	KC		CF	Kyle Isbel	4	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.750
current	KC		2B	Michael Massey	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	KC		3B	Maikel Garcia	5	2	1	1	1	0	2	0.400
current	KC		C	Carter Jensen	3	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
current	KC		1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	KC		RF	Jac Caglianone	5	2	1	1	0	0	0	0.400
current	KC		LF	Isaac Collins	5	2	0	1	0	0	0	0.400
current	KC		DH	Salvador Perez	5	2	1	1	2	0	1	0.400
current	SEA		C	Jhonny Pereda	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	SEA		DH	Rob Refsnyder	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	SEA		1B	Josh Naylor	4	1	1	0	0	0	3	0.250
current	SEA		2B	Cole Young	4	1	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
current	SEA		RF	Connor Joe	4	1	1	1	1	0	2	0.250
current	SEA		3B	Leo Rivas	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	SEA		LF	Randy Arozarena	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	SEA		SS	J.P. Crawford	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	SEA		CF	Julio Rodríguez	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	KC	1	3B	Maikel Garcia	5	2	1	1	1	0	2	0.400
simulation	KC	2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	KC	3	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	KC	4	DH	Salvador Perez	5	2	1	1	2	0	1	0.400
simulation	KC	5	C	Carter Jensen	3	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	KC	6	RF	Jac Caglianone	5	2	1	1	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	KC	7	LF	Isaac Collins	5	2	0	1	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	KC	8	2B	Michael Massey	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	KC	9	CF	Kyle Isbel	4	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.750
simulation	SEA	1	DH	Rob Refsnyder	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	SEA	2	CF	Julio Rodríguez	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	SEA	3	1B	Josh Naylor	4	1	1	0	0	0	3	0.250
simulation	SEA	4	LF	Randy Arozarena	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	5	SS	J.P. Crawford	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	SEA	6	2B	Cole Young	4	1	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	SEA	7	RF	Connor Joe	4	1	1	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	SEA	8	C	Jhonny Pereda	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	SEA	9	3B	Leo Rivas	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	KC	1	Kris Bubic	Starter	5.0	2	1	1	2	6	0	0	1.80	3.74	1.19
current	KC	2	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	9.00	2.19	0.65
current	KC	3	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	3.77	1.40
current	KC	4	Matt Strahm	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.55	1.26
current	KC	5	Nick Mears	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	2.31	1.11
current	SEA	1	Luis Castillo	Starter	4.0	6	2	2	2	2	0	0	4.50	6.35	1.73
current	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5.54	1.38
current	SEA	3	Cooper Criswell	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.35	0.91
current	SEA	4	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	9.00	1.20	1.00
current	SEA	5	Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	18.00	2.92	1.54
current	SEA	6	Jose A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	2.30	1.53
simulation	KC	1	Kris Bubic	Starter	5.0	2	1	1	2	6	19	87	1.80	3.74	1.19
simulation	KC	2	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	10	0.00	3.77	1.40
simulation	KC	3	Matt Strahm	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	9	0.00	3.55	1.26
simulation	KC	4	Nick Mears	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	4	22	0.00	2.31	1.11
simulation	KC	5	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	5	23	9.00	2.19	0.65
simulation	SEA	1	Luis Castillo	Starter	4.0	6	2	2	2	2	20	83	4.50	6.35	1.73
simulation	SEA	2	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	3	8	0.00	5.54	1.38
simulation	SEA	3	Jose A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	5	16	0.00	2.30	1.53
simulation	SEA	4	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	5	23	9.00	1.20	1.00
simulation	SEA	5	Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	6	16	18.00	2.92	1.54
simulation	SEA	6	Cooper Criswell	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	4	16	0.00	2.35	0.91

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
KC	Kris Bubic	Starter	5.0	1	2	2	6	19	87
KC	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	10
KC	Matt Strahm	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	9
KC	Nick Mears	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	22
KC	Daniel Lynch IV	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	23
SEA	Luis Castillo	Starter	4.0	2	6	2	2	20	83
SEA	Andrés Muñoz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	8
SEA	Jose A. Ferrer	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	1	5	16
SEA	Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	5	23
SEA	Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	3	0	0	6	16
SEA	Cooper Criswell	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260503_LAD@STL

20260503_LAD@STL.json • 2026-05-03

LAD 7 - STL 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 94INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match STL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match STL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match STL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=42 matches STL BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match LAD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=35 matches LAD BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 11, STL 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 7 - STL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.58, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': -6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'STL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.6436459200371851, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 5, 'path': '20260502_LAD@STL.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 5 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 7 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_LAD@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@STL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 187.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 187.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 7 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 7 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 7-4.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-4, final 7-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 7-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 15/33 = 0.455.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 8/33 = 0.242.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAD	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAD hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAD	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting walks match STL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting home runs match STL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting hits match STL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAD batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAD PA=42 matches STL BF=42.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAD	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAD runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match LAD pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match LAD pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match LAD pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match LAD pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=35 matches LAD BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAD current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAD current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAD current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAD hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAD	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: LAD 11, STL 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: LAD 7 - STL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for LAD; cap=0.58, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'LAD', 'opponent_team': 'STL', 'h2h_net_margin': -6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -1, 'winner': 'STL'}, {'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'STL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.6436459200371851, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 5, 'path': '20260502_LAD@STL.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'LAD', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'LAD', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 5 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'LAD 7 - 4 STL', 'winner': 'LAD'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_LAD@STL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: LAD@STL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 187.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAD	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAD pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 187.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAD pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAD	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAD includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAD	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAD pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: LAD 7 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: LAD 7 - 4 STL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: LAD wins 7-4.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: LAD wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: LAD wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-4, final 7-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: LAD wins 7-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAD recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAD	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAD wins and win_pct agree: 15/33 = 0.455.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 8/33 = 0.242.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	LAD	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.821338653564453	3.441235065460205		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6	3		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.580	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	3	0	7	11
STL	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	4	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	LAD	batting	38	11	0	0	1	7	7	3	11	0	1	0	0
current	LAD	pitching		7			2		4	1	8					9.0	4	0	0
current	STL	batting	34	7	3	0	2	4	4	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		11			1		7	3	11					9.0	7	0	0
simulation	LAD	batting	38	11	0	0	1	7	7	3	11	0	1
simulation	LAD	pitching		7			2		4	1	8					9.0	4	35	151
simulation	STL	batting	34	7	3	0	2	4	4	1	8	0	0
simulation	STL	pitching		11			1		7	3	11					9.0	7	42	187

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	LAD		LF	Teoscar Hernández	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	0.200
current	LAD		1B	Freddie Freeman	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	LAD		3B	Max Muncy	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	0.333
current	LAD		DH	Shohei Ohtani	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	LAD		SS	Hyeseong Kim	4	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
current	LAD		RF	Kyle Tucker	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.000
current	LAD		CF	Andy Pages	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.500
current	LAD		2B	Alex Freeland	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0.250
current	LAD		C	Dalton Rushing	5	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.600
current	STL		C	Pedro Pagés	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
current	STL		DH	Iván Herrera	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		1B	Alec Burleson	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	STL		CF	Nathan Church	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	STL		LF	José Fermín	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	STL		3B	Ramón Urías	3	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	STL		2B	JJ Wetherholt	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
current	STL		SS	Masyn Winn	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	STL		RF	Jordan Walker	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	LAD	1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	2	1B	Freddie Freeman	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	LAD	3	LF	Teoscar Hernández	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	0.200
simulation	LAD	4	RF	Kyle Tucker	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAD	5	3B	Max Muncy	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	LAD	6	C	Dalton Rushing	5	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.600
simulation	LAD	7	CF	Andy Pages	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	LAD	8	SS	Hyeseong Kim	4	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	LAD	9	2B	Alex Freeland	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	STL	1	2B	JJ Wetherholt	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	STL	2	DH	Iván Herrera	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	STL	3	RF	Jordan Walker	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	STL	4	1B	Alec Burleson	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	STL	5	SS	Masyn Winn	4	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	STL	6	LF	José Fermín	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	STL	7	CF	Nathan Church	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	STL	8	C	Pedro Pagés	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	STL	9	3B	Ramón Urías	3	1	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	LAD	1	Justin Wrobleski	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	1	4	1	0	0	5.40	1.50	0.97
current	LAD	2	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.54	0.86
current	LAD	3	Blake Treinen	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	9.00	1.04	1.15
current	LAD	4	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.02	0.75
current	LAD	5	Will Klein	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.77	1.38
current	STL	1	Dustin May	Starter	5.0	6	4	4	2	7	1	0	0	7.20	5.28	1.53
current	STL	2	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.68	1.09
current	STL	4	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.94	1.25
current	STL	5	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.20	0.98
current	STL	6	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	3	1	2	0	0	0	27.00	7.71	2.21
simulation	LAD	1	Justin Wrobleski	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	1	4	1	21	94	5.40	1.50	0.97
simulation	LAD	2	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	6	0.00	2.02	0.75
simulation	LAD	3	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	20	0.00	1.54	0.86
simulation	LAD	4	Blake Treinen	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	1	4	17	9.00	1.04	1.15
simulation	LAD	5	Will Klein	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	14	0.00	2.77	1.38
simulation	STL	1	Dustin May	Starter	5.0	6	4	4	2	7	1	23	103	7.20	5.28	1.53
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	14	0.00	2.20	0.98
simulation	STL	3	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	3.94	1.25
simulation	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	3	1	2	0	8	34	27.00	7.71	2.21
simulation	STL	5	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	21	0.00	3.68	1.09

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
LAD	Justin Wrobleski	Starter	5.0	3	5	1	4	21	94
LAD	Tanner Scott	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	6
LAD	Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	20
LAD	Blake Treinen	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	2	4	17
LAD	Will Klein	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
STL	Dustin May	Starter	5.0	4	6	2	7	23	103
STL	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	14
STL	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	15
STL	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	3	1	2	8	34
STL	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	0	5	21

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260503_MIL@WAS

20260503_MIL@WAS.json • 2026-05-03

MIL 5 - WAS 2

ERROR

Final simulation is close, but errors remain. Risk score: 50.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 1WARN 1PASS 92INFO 3

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
ERROR	Pitcher role labeling The final pitching box score has no pitcher marked Starter/Opener. Mark the first pitcher as Starter when appropriate.	0C / 1E / 1W	WAS	current:WAS has no starter/opener role in the pitcher list. simulation:WAS has no starter/opener role in the pitcher list.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
ERROR	pitching	current	WAS		STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS has no starter/opener role in the pitcher list.
WARN	pitching	simulation	WAS		STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS has no starter/opener role in the pitcher list.

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
ERROR	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS has no starter/opener role in the pitcher list.
WARN	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS has no starter/opener role in the pitcher list.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match WAS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match WAS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=40 matches WAS BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match MIL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match MIL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match MIL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=41 matches MIL BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.284/0.667.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 7, WAS 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 5 - WAS 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'WAS', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-05-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-04-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'WAS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260502_MIL@WAS.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIL 5 - 4 WAS', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'MIL 5 - 2 WAS', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_MIL@WAS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@WAS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 182.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 182.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 5 - 2 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 5 - 2 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 5-2.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIL wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 11/32 = 0.344.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 9/34 = 0.265.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match WAS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match WAS pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match WAS pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=40 matches WAS BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match MIL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match MIL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match MIL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=41 matches MIL BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.600.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.400.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.284/0.667.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: MIL 7, WAS 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: MIL 5 - WAS 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for MIL; cap=0.6, reasons=recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'WAS', 'h2h_net_margin': 6, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-05-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 1, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'MIL'}, {'date': '2026-04-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -2, 'winner': 'WAS'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260502_MIL@WAS.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'MIL', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'MIL', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'MIL 5 - 4 WAS', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'MIL 5 - 2 WAS', 'winner': 'MIL'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_MIL@WAS.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: MIL@WAS.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 182.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 182.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: MIL 5 - 2 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: MIL 5 - 2 WAS.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: MIL wins 5-2.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.600.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: MIL wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: MIL wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: MIL wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 11/32 = 0.344.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 9/34 = 0.265.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.142268180847168	3.0709733963012695		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	3		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.600	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	5	7
WAS	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	MIL	batting	34	7	1	0	1	5	5	5	5	0	1	0	0
current	MIL	pitching		10			0		2	3	10					9.0	2	0	0
current	WAS	batting	37	10	2	0	0	2	2	3	10	0	1	0	0
current	WAS	pitching		7			1		5	5	5					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	MIL	batting	34	7	1	0	1	5	5	5	5	0	1
simulation	MIL	pitching		10			0		2	3	10					9.0	2	41	182
simulation	WAS	batting	37	10	2	0	0	2	2	3	10	0	1
simulation	WAS	pitching		7			1		5	5	5					9.0	5	40	167

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	MIL		C	William Contreras	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	1	0.250
current	MIL		CF	Garrett Mitchell	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	MIL		3B	Luis Rengifo	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.000
current	MIL		SS	Joey Ortiz	4	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
current	MIL		DH	Gary Sánchez	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	MIL		1B	Jake Bauers	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	MIL		LF	Brandon Lockridge	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
current	MIL		2B	David Hamilton	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
current	MIL		RF	Sal Frelick	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
current	WAS		C	Keibert Ruiz	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	WAS		SS	CJ Abrams	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		CF	Jacob Young	4	2	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	0.500
current	WAS		RF	James Wood	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		2B	Nasim Nuñez	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	WAS		LF	Daylen Lile	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.400
current	WAS		DH	Jose Fernandez	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	WAS		3B	Jorbit Vivas	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	WAS		1B	Luis García Jr.	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	MIL	1	3B	Luis Rengifo	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	2	C	William Contreras	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	MIL	3	DH	Gary Sánchez	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	MIL	4	1B	Jake Bauers	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	5	CF	Garrett Mitchell	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	6	LF	Brandon Lockridge	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	MIL	7	RF	Sal Frelick	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIL	8	2B	David Hamilton	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIL	9	SS	Joey Ortiz	4	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	WAS	1	RF	James Wood	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	2	1B	Luis García Jr.	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	WAS	3	CF	Jacob Young	4	2	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	0.500
simulation	WAS	4	SS	CJ Abrams	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	5	LF	Daylen Lile	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	WAS	6	2B	Nasim Nuñez	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	WAS	7	DH	Jose Fernandez	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	8	3B	Jorbit Vivas	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	9	C	Keibert Ruiz	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	MIL	1	Logan Henderson	Starter	4.0	3	2	2	2	4	0	0	0	4.50	9.00	2.00
current	MIL	3	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.57	1.43
current	MIL	4	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.65	1.05
current	MIL	5	DL Hall	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.88	1.40
current	MIL	6	Grant Anderson	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.31	1.04
current	MIL	7	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.00	1.08
current	WAS	2	PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	9.00	4.11	1.37
current	WAS	3	Andre Granillo	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	7.36	2.32
current	WAS	4	Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.80	1.23
current	WAS	5	Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.84	1.34
current	WAS	6	Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.63	1.68
current	WAS	7	Orlando Ribalta	Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00
current	WAS	8	Paxton Schultz	Reliever	3.0	5	3	3	4	1	0	0	0	9.00
simulation	MIL	1	Logan Henderson	Starter	4.0	3	2	2	2	4	0	18	80	4.50	9.00	2.00
simulation	MIL	2	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	0	0	0	1	0	6	21	0.00	3.65	1.05
simulation	MIL	3	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	23	0.00	2.57	1.43
simulation	MIL	4	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	14	0.00	3.00	1.08
simulation	MIL	5	Grant Anderson	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	22	0.00	3.31	1.04
simulation	MIL	6	DL Hall	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	1	0	0	6	22	0.00	1.88	1.40
simulation	WAS	1	PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	1	5	23	9.00	4.11	1.37
simulation	WAS	2	Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	14	0.00	2.84	1.34
simulation	WAS	3	Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	3.80	1.23
simulation	WAS	4	Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	10	0.00	2.63	1.68
simulation	WAS	5	Andre Granillo	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	1	0	3	15	9.00	7.36	2.32
simulation	WAS	6	Orlando Ribalta	Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	5	15	0.00	0.00	0.33
simulation	WAS	7	Paxton Schultz	Reliever	3.0	5	3	3	4	1	0	18	79	9.00	3.27	1.18

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
MIL	Logan Henderson	Starter	4.0	2	3	2	4	18	80
MIL	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	3	0	1	6	21
MIL	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	23
MIL	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	14
MIL	Grant Anderson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	22
MIL	DL Hall	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	1	0	6	22
WAS	PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	5	23
WAS	Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	14
WAS	Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	11
WAS	Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	10
WAS	Andre Granillo	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	15
WAS	Orlando Ribalta	Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	5	15
WAS	Paxton Schultz	Reliever	3.0	3	5	4	1	18	79

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	error	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	0	0	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	0	0	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	0	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	error	1	1	2	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260503_NYM@LAA

20260503_NYM@LAA.json • 2026-05-03

NYM 5 - LAA 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 94INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match NYM pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=36 matches NYM BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match LAA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match LAA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=38 matches LAA BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.662.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.662.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.338.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.381/0.862.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 7, LAA 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 5 - LAA 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYM.	{'winner_confidence': 0.6622763114311658, 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'confidence': 0.743098944637051, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 1, 'file': '20260502_NYM@LAA.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_NYM@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@LAA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 5 - 3 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 5 - 3 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 5-3.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.662.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYM wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 5-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 11/34 = 0.324.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 10/33 = 0.303.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	current:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	LAA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:LAA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	LAA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting walks match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting home runs match NYM pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting hits match NYM pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:LAA batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:LAA PA=36 matches NYM BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	LAA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:LAA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match LAA pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match LAA pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match LAA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match LAA pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=38 matches LAA BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	LAA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	LAA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	LAA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	LAA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	LAA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.662.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.662.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.338.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.381/0.862.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: NYM 7, LAA 8.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: NYM 5 - LAA 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for NYM.	{'winner_confidence': 0.6622763114311658, 'h2h_net_margin': 1, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'confidence': 0.743098944637051, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 1, 'file': '20260502_NYM@LAA.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_NYM@LAA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: NYM@LAA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 135.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	LAA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	LAA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 135.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:LAA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	LAA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:LAA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	LAA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:LAA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: NYM 5 - 3 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: NYM 5 - 3 LAA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 5-3.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.662.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYM wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-3, final 5-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	LAA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	LAA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	LAA wins and win_pct agree: 11/34 = 0.324.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 10/33 = 0.303.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	LAA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	5.720162868499756	2.6596055030822754		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	2		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	2	0.662	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
capped_target	5	2		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	0	2	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	5	7
LAA	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	3	8

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	NYM	batting	34	7	3	0	1	5	5	3	5	0	1	0	0
current	NYM	pitching		8			1		3	1	7					9.0	3	0	0
current	LAA	batting	35	8	2	0	1	3	3	1	7	0	0	0	0
current	LAA	pitching		7			1		5	3	5					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	NYM	batting	34	7	3	0	1	5	5	3	5	0	1
simulation	NYM	pitching		8			1		3	1	7					9.0	3	36	135
simulation	LAA	batting	35	8	2	0	1	3	3	1	7	0	0
simulation	LAA	pitching		7			1		5	3	5					9.0	5	38	156

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	NYM		CF	Tyrone Taylor	4	2	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.500
current	NYM		2B	Marcus Semien	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
current	NYM		DH	Juan Soto	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	NYM		C	Luis Torrens	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	NYM		LF	MJ Melendez	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
current	NYM		3B	Brett Baty	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	NYM		RF	Carson Benge	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	0.500
current	NYM		1B	Mark Vientos	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.500
current	NYM		SS	Bo Bichette	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	LAA		1B	Nolan Schanuel	4	2	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
current	LAA		RF	Jorge Soler	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
current	LAA		CF	Mike Trout	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	LAA		C	Sebastián Rivero	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		3B	Oswald Peraza	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
current	LAA		LF	Josh Lowe	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	LAA		SS	Zach Neto	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
current	LAA		2B	Vaughn Grissom	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	LAA		DH	Jo Adell	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	1	SS	Bo Bichette	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	2	DH	Juan Soto	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	3	LF	MJ Melendez	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	4	3B	Brett Baty	4	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	5	2B	Marcus Semien	3	1	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	NYM	6	RF	Carson Benge	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	1	0.500
simulation	NYM	7	1B	Mark Vientos	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	NYM	8	CF	Tyrone Taylor	4	2	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	NYM	9	C	Luis Torrens	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	1	SS	Zach Neto	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	2	CF	Mike Trout	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	3	1B	Nolan Schanuel	4	2	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	LAA	4	RF	Jorge Soler	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	5	DH	Jo Adell	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	6	LF	Josh Lowe	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	LAA	7	2B	Vaughn Grissom	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	LAA	8	3B	Oswald Peraza	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	LAA	9	C	Sebastián Rivero	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	NYM	1	Clay Holmes	Starter	6.0	4	1	1	0	6	0	0	0	1.50	1.75	0.97
current	NYM	2	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.54	0.86
current	NYM	4	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	5.40	1.70
current	NYM	6	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	1	1	1	0	0	18.00	5.54	1.08
current	LAA	1	Jack Kochanowicz	Starter	5.0	4	3	3	1	2	1	0	0	5.40	3.09	1.20
current	LAA	2	Brent Suter	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.12	1.32
current	LAA	3	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	3.18	1.85
current	LAA	4	José Fermin	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.45	0.27
current	LAA	5	Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	9.00	3.18	1.18
simulation	NYM	1	Clay Holmes	Starter	6.0	4	1	1	0	6	0	22	80	1.50	1.75	0.97
simulation	NYM	2	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	8	0.00	5.40	1.70
simulation	NYM	3	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	2	2	1	1	1	7	33	18.00	5.54	1.08
simulation	NYM	4	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	14	0.00	1.54	0.86
simulation	LAA	1	Jack Kochanowicz	Starter	5.0	4	3	3	1	2	1	20	84	5.40	3.09	1.20
simulation	LAA	2	Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	6	24	9.00	3.18	1.18
simulation	LAA	3	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	3	11	9.00	3.18	1.85
simulation	LAA	4	José Fermin	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	26	0.00	2.45	0.27
simulation	LAA	5	Brent Suter	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	11	0.00	4.12	1.32

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
NYM	Clay Holmes	Starter	6.0	1	4	0	6	22	80
NYM	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	8
NYM	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	3	1	1	7	33
NYM	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	14
LAA	Jack Kochanowicz	Starter	5.0	3	4	1	2	20	84
LAA	Sam Bachman	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	1	6	24
LAA	Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	11
LAA	José Fermin	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	26
LAA	Brent Suter	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	11

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260503_PHI@MIA

20260503_PHI@MIA.json • 2026-05-03

PHI 7 - MIA 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 94INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match PHI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match PHI pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=40 matches PHI BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match MIA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match MIA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match MIA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=41 matches MIA BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.284/0.667.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PHI 6, MIA 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PHI 7 - MIA 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.58, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-05-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PHI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260502_PHI@MIA.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 7 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_PHI@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PHI@MIA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 180.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 180.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 7 - 4 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PHI 7 - 4 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 7-4.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PHI wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-4, final 7-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 7-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 11/33 = 0.333.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 6/33 = 0.182.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIA	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIA hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIA	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting walks match PHI pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting hits match PHI pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIA batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIA PA=40 matches PHI BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIA	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIA runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match MIA pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match MIA pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match MIA pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match MIA pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=41 matches MIA BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 7.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIA current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIA current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIA current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIA hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIA	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.284/0.667.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: PHI 6, MIA 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: PHI 7 - MIA 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.58, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'MIA', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'MIA'}, {'date': '2026-05-01', 'predicted_team_runs': 6, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'PHI'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'MIA', 'confidence': 0.6, 'actual_winner': 'MIA', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260502_PHI@MIA.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'PHI', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'PHI', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 5 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 7, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'PHI 7 - 4 MIA', 'winner': 'PHI'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 2, 'home_run_delta': 0, 'total_run_delta': 2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_PHI@MIA.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: PHI@MIA.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 164.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 180.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIA	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIA pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 180.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 164.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIA pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIA	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIA includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIA	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIA pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: PHI 7 - 4 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: PHI 7 - 4 MIA.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 7-4.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PHI wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 7-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 7-4, final 7-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 7-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIA recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIA	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIA wins and win_pct agree: 11/33 = 0.333.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 6/33 = 0.182.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	MIA	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.3752665519714355	4.237950801849365		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.580	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	7	6
MIA	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	4	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	PHI	batting	32	6	1	0	7	7	7	10	1	1	0	0
current	PHI	pitching		9				4	3	8					9.0	4	0	0
current	MIA	batting	36	9	4	0	4	4	3	8	0	1	0	0
current	MIA	pitching		6				7	7	10					9.0	7	0	0
simulation	PHI	batting	32	6	1	0	7	7	7	10	1	1
simulation	PHI	pitching		9				4	3	8					9.0	4	40	164
simulation	MIA	batting	36	9	4	0	4	4	3	8	0	1
simulation	MIA	pitching		6				7	7	10					9.0	7	41	180

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	PHI		C	J.T. Realmuto	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
current	PHI		DH	Kyle Schwarber	4	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.000
current	PHI		SS	Trea Turner	4	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	0.000
current	PHI		2B	Bryson Stott	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
current	PHI		LF	Felix Reyes	3	1	0	1	2	0	0	1	0.333
current	PHI		RF	Brandon Marsh	5	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	PHI		3B	Alec Bohm	5	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	PHI		1B	Bryce Harper	3	2	0	1	1	2	1	0	0.667
current	PHI		CF	Justin Crawford	3	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	MIA		RF	Kyle Stowers	5	2	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
current	MIA		C	Agustín Ramírez	5	2	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.400
current	MIA		SS	Otto Lopez	5	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0.200
current	MIA		DH	Christopher Morel	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	MIA		3B	Leo Jiménez	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
current	MIA		CF	Esteury Ruiz	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
current	MIA		2B	Xavier Edwards	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
current	MIA		1B	Connor Norby	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.333
current	MIA		LF	Javier Sanoja	4	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	PHI	1	SS	Trea Turner	4	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	2	DH	Kyle Schwarber	4	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	3	1B	Bryce Harper	3	2	0	1	1	2	1	0	0.667
simulation	PHI	4	3B	Alec Bohm	5	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	PHI	5	RF	Brandon Marsh	5	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	6	C	J.T. Realmuto	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	7	2B	Bryson Stott	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	PHI	8	LF	Felix Reyes	3	1	0	1	2	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	PHI	9	CF	Justin Crawford	3	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	MIA	1	SS	Otto Lopez	5	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	MIA	2	C	Agustín Ramírez	5	2	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	MIA	3	RF	Kyle Stowers	5	2	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	MIA	4	1B	Connor Norby	3	1	0	1	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	MIA	5	2B	Xavier Edwards	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	6	DH	Christopher Morel	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	7	3B	Leo Jiménez	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIA	8	CF	Esteury Ruiz	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	MIA	9	LF	Javier Sanoja	4	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	0.250

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	PHI	1	Jesús Luzardo	Starter	5.0	6	2	2	2	5	0	0	3.60	5.50	1.28
current	PHI	2	Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	4.61	1.02
current	PHI	3	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.00	6.75	2.25
current	PHI	4	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	9.00	2.31	1.29
current	PHI	5	Tim Mayza	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	3.50	1.06
current	MIA	1	Chris Paddack	Starter	4.0	3	2	2	4	5	0	0	4.50	6.11	1.50
current	MIA	2	Andrew Nardi	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	5.25	1.50
current	MIA	3	Anthony Bender	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	4	4	2	1	0	0	36.00	4.85	1.46
current	MIA	4	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	9.00	4.91	1.82
current	MIA	5	John King	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	0.66	0.51
current	MIA	6	Tyler Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.00	1.47	1.36
simulation	PHI	1	Jesús Luzardo	Starter	5.0	6	2	2	2	5	24	102	3.60	5.50	1.28
simulation	PHI	2	Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	5	18	0.00	4.61	1.02
simulation	PHI	3	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	3	13	9.00	6.75	2.25
simulation	PHI	4	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	5	20	9.00	2.31	1.29
simulation	PHI	5	Tim Mayza	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	11	0.00	3.50	1.06
simulation	MIA	1	Chris Paddack	Starter	4.0	3	2	2	4	5	20	90	4.50	6.11	1.50
simulation	MIA	2	Tyler Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	3	15	0.00	1.47	1.36
simulation	MIA	3	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	1	3	13	9.00	4.91	1.82
simulation	MIA	4	John King	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	11	0.00	0.66	0.51
simulation	MIA	5	Anthony Bender	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	4	4	2	1	8	36	36.00	4.85	1.46
simulation	MIA	6	Andrew Nardi	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	4	15	0.00	5.25	1.50

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
PHI	Jesús Luzardo	Starter	5.0	2	6	2	5	24	102
PHI	Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	18
PHI	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	13
PHI	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	20
PHI	Tim Mayza	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	11
MIA	Chris Paddack	Starter	4.0	2	3	4	5	20	90
MIA	Tyler Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	15
MIA	Calvin Faucher	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	13
MIA	John King	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	11
MIA	Anthony Bender	Middle Reliever	1.0	4	3	2	1	8	36
MIA	Andrew Nardi	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	15

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260503_SF@TB

20260503_SF@TB.json • 2026-05-03

SF 2 - TB 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 95INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match TB pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match TB pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match TB pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=35 matches TB BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match SF pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match SF pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=39 matches SF BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.245.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.755.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.755.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.284/0.667.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 4, TB 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 2 - TB 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TB.	{'winner_confidence': 0.7552604659415927, 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.7695386178861789, 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 4, 'file': '20260502_SF@TB.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_SF@TB.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@TB.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 148.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 148.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 2 - 6 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 2 - 6 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 6-2.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.755.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TB wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-6, final 2-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 6/33 = 0.182.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 14/32 = 0.438.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TB	BATTING_REALISM	current:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TB	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TB hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TB	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match TB pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match TB pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match TB pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match TB pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=35 matches TB BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TB batting walks match SF pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TB batting home runs match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TB batting hits match SF pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TB batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TB PA=39 matches SF BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TB	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TB runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TB current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TB current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TB current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TB hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TB	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.245.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.755.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.755.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.284/0.667.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 4, TB 11.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 2 - TB 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for TB.	{'winner_confidence': 0.7552604659415927, 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'TB', 'confidence': 0.7695386178861789, 'actual_winner': 'TB', 'actual_margin': 4, 'file': '20260502_SF@TB.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_SF@TB.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@TB.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 148.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 148.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TB	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TB pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TB pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TB	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TB includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TB	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TB pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 2 - 6 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 2 - 6 TB.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TB wins 6-2.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.755.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 9/10 (0.900).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TB wins 6-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TB wins 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-6, final 2-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TB wins 6-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 6/33 = 0.182.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TB recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TB	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TB wins and win_pct agree: 14/32 = 0.438.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TB	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.9387829303741455	4.644968032836914		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	1	5	0.755	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
capped_target	1	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	4
TB	1	0	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	6	11

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SF	batting	31	4	2	0	0	2	2	4	8	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		11			1		6	4	3					8.0	6	0	0
current	TB	batting	35	11	0	0	1	6	6	4	3	0	0	0	0
current	TB	pitching		4			0		2	4	8					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	SF	batting	31	4	2	0	0	2	2	4	8	0	0
simulation	SF	pitching		11			1		6	4	3					8.0	6	39	148
simulation	TB	batting	35	11	0	0	1	6	6	4	3	0	0
simulation	TB	pitching		4			0		2	4	8					9.0	2	35	147

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	SF		LF	Heliot Ramos	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	SF		1B	Rafael Devers	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	SF		3B	Matt Chapman	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	SF		2B	Luis Arraez	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
current	SF		CF	Jung Hoo Lee	2	2	1	0	0	0	2	0	1.000
current	SF		C	Eric Haase	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.000
current	SF		DH	Casey Schmitt	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	SF		RF	Jerar Encarnacion	4	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.000
current	SF		SS	Willy Adames	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	TB		CF	Cedric Mullins	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
current	TB		RF	Jake Fraley	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
current	TB		2B	Ben Williamson	2	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.500
current	TB		SS	Taylor Walls	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
current	TB		3B	Junior Caminero	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.400
current	TB		DH	Jonathan Aranda	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	TB		C	Nick Fortes	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0.250
current	TB		1B	Ryan Vilade	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TB		LF	Chandler Simpson	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	SF	1	LF	Heliot Ramos	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SF	2	1B	Rafael Devers	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	SF	3	DH	Casey Schmitt	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SF	4	2B	Luis Arraez	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	SF	5	3B	Matt Chapman	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	SF	6	SS	Willy Adames	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	SF	7	CF	Jung Hoo Lee	2	2	1	0	0	0	2	0	1.000
simulation	SF	8	RF	Jerar Encarnacion	4	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	SF	9	C	Eric Haase	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	TB	1	LF	Chandler Simpson	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.200
simulation	TB	2	3B	Junior Caminero	5	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	TB	3	DH	Jonathan Aranda	5	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.200
simulation	TB	4	1B	Ryan Vilade	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TB	5	RF	Jake Fraley	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	TB	6	2B	Ben Williamson	2	1	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.500
simulation	TB	7	CF	Cedric Mullins	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	TB	8	C	Nick Fortes	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0.250
simulation	TB	9	SS	Taylor Walls	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SF	1	Tyler Mahle	Starter	3.0	8	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	15.00	5.87	1.63
current	SF	2	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	0.64	0.86
current	SF	3	Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.18	1.24
current	SF	4	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	2.84	0.87
current	SF	5	Matt Gage	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.35	1.12
current	SF	6	Ryan Walker	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4.26	1.50
current	TB	1	Steven Matz	Starter	5.0	2	1	1	3	2	0	0	0	1.80	4.31	1.12
current	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.92	0.97
current	TB	3	Cole Sulser	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.06	1.53
current	TB	4	Hunter Bigge	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	4.50	1.25
current	TB	5	Ian Seymour	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	3.14	1.12
simulation	SF	1	Tyler Mahle	Starter	3.0	8	5	5	2	1	0	19	65	15.00	5.87	1.63
simulation	SF	2	Ryan Walker	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	10	0.00	4.26	1.50
simulation	SF	3	Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	2	0	0	6	28	0.00	3.18	1.24
simulation	SF	4	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	4	14	9.00	2.84	0.87
simulation	SF	5	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	0.64	0.86
simulation	SF	6	Matt Gage	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	18	0.00	1.35	1.12
simulation	TB	1	Steven Matz	Starter	5.0	2	1	1	3	2	0	20	86	1.80	4.31	1.12
simulation	TB	2	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	15	0.00	2.92	0.97
simulation	TB	3	Ian Seymour	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	0	5	17	9.00	3.14	1.12
simulation	TB	4	Cole Sulser	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	12	0.00	3.06	1.53
simulation	TB	5	Hunter Bigge	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	17	0.00	4.50	1.25

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SF	Tyler Mahle	Starter	3.0	5	8	2	1	19	65
SF	Ryan Walker	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	10
SF	Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	2	0	6	28
SF	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	14
SF	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
SF	Matt Gage	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	18
TB	Steven Matz	Starter	5.0	1	2	3	2	20	86
TB	Bryan Baker	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	15
TB	Ian Seymour	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	1	5	17
TB	Cole Sulser	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	12
TB	Hunter Bigge	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	17

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260503_TEX@DET

20260503_TEX@DET.json • 2026-05-03

TEX 3 - DET 6

ERROR

Final simulation is close, but errors remain. Risk score: 50.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 1WARN 1PASS 93INFO 3

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
ERROR	Pitcher role labeling The final pitching box score has no pitcher marked Starter/Opener. Mark the first pitcher as Starter when appropriate.	0C / 1E / 1W	DET	current:DET has no starter/opener role in the pitcher list. simulation:DET has no starter/opener role in the pitcher list.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
ERROR	pitching	current	DET		STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET has no starter/opener role in the pitcher list.
WARN	pitching	simulation	DET		STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET has no starter/opener role in the pitcher list.

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
ERROR	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET has no starter/opener role in the pitcher list.
WARN	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET has no starter/opener role in the pitcher list.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match TEX pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match TEX pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=34 matches TEX BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match DET pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match DET pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match DET pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=37 matches DET BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.418.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.582.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.582.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.263/0.625.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 7, DET 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 3 - DET 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for DET.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5824690620680453, 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'confidence': 0.5736102670623784, 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 4, 'file': '20260502_TEX@DET.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_TEX@DET.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@DET.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 138.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 138.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 3 - 6 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 3 - 6 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 6-3.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.582.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: DET wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-6, final 3-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: DET wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 12/34 = 0.353.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 11/33 = 0.333.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	current:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TEX	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TEX hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TEX	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match TEX pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match TEX pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match TEX pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match TEX pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=34 matches TEX BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting walks match DET pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting home runs match DET pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting hits match DET pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TEX batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TEX PA=37 matches DET BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TEX	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TEX runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TEX current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TEX current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TEX current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TEX hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TEX	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.418.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.582.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.582.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.263/0.625.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TEX 7, DET 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TEX 3 - DET 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for DET.	{'winner_confidence': 0.5824690620680453, 'h2h_net_margin': 3, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'DET', 'confidence': 0.5736102670623784, 'actual_winner': 'DET', 'actual_margin': 4, 'file': '20260502_TEX@DET.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_TEX@DET.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TEX@DET.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 138.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TEX	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TEX pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 138.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TEX pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TEX	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TEX includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TEX	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TEX pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TEX 3 - 6 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TEX 3 - 6 DET.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: DET wins 6-3.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.582.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: DET wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: DET wins 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-6, final 3-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: DET wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 12/34 = 0.353.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TEX recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TEX	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TEX wins and win_pct agree: 11/33 = 0.333.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TEX	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.228428840637207	4.09144401550293		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.582	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	3	7
DET	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	0	6	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TEX	batting	34	7	2	0	0	3	3	3	8	0	0	0	0
current	TEX	pitching		9			2		6	1	8					8.0	6	0	0
current	DET	batting	33	9	3	0	2	6	6	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	DET	pitching		7			0		3	3	8					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	TEX	batting	34	7	2	0	0	3	3	3	8	0	0
simulation	TEX	pitching		9			2		6	1	8					8.0	6	34	138
simulation	DET	batting	33	9	3	0	2	6	6	1	8	0	0
simulation	DET	pitching		7			0		3	3	8					9.0	3	37	151

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	TEX		DH	Brandon Nimmo	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
current	TEX		LF	Andrew McCutchen	3	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
current	TEX		3B	Josh Jung	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	TEX		SS	Corey Seager	4	3	0	0	1	2	0	0	0.750
current	TEX		1B	Jake Burger	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	TEX		C	Kyle Higashioka	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
current	TEX		2B	Josh Smith	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	TEX		RF	Ezequiel Duran	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
current	TEX		CF	Evan Carter	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	DET		SS	Kevin McGonigle	4	3	2	0	1	0	0	0	0.750
current	DET		2B	Hao-Yu Lee	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.500
current	DET		DH	Kerry Carpenter	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0.250
current	DET		RF	Wenceel Pérez	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	DET		C	Jake Rogers	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	DET		CF	Matt Vierling	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
current	DET		LF	Riley Greene	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	DET		3B	Colt Keith	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	DET		1B	Spencer Torkelson	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	TEX	1	DH	Brandon Nimmo	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	TEX	2	LF	Andrew McCutchen	3	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	TEX	3	SS	Corey Seager	4	3	0	0	1	2	0	0	0.750
simulation	TEX	4	3B	Josh Jung	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TEX	5	1B	Jake Burger	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	TEX	6	CF	Evan Carter	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	TEX	7	RF	Ezequiel Duran	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.250
simulation	TEX	8	2B	Josh Smith	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	TEX	9	C	Kyle Higashioka	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	DET	1	SS	Kevin McGonigle	4	3	2	0	1	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	DET	2	CF	Matt Vierling	4	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	0.250
simulation	DET	3	3B	Colt Keith	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	DET	4	LF	Riley Greene	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	DET	5	1B	Spencer Torkelson	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	DET	6	DH	Kerry Carpenter	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0.250
simulation	DET	7	RF	Wenceel Pérez	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	DET	8	2B	Hao-Yu Lee	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0.500
simulation	DET	9	C	Jake Rogers	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TEX	1	Jack Leiter	Starter	5.0	4	2	2	1	7	1	0	0	3.60	5.17	1.47
current	TEX	2	Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	4	4	4	0	1	1	0	0	36.00	5.27	1.32
current	TEX	3	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.02	0.45
current	TEX	4	Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.76	0.72
current	DET	2	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	9.00	5.54	1.92
current	DET	3	Brant Hurter	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	1.84	0.75
current	DET	4	Burch Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.45	1.36
current	DET	5	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.68	1.36
current	DET	6	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.57	1.21
current	DET	7	Drew Anderson	Reliever	1.0	4	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	18.00
current	DET	8	Brenan Hanifee	Reliever	3.0	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00
simulation	TEX	1	Jack Leiter	Starter	5.0	4	2	2	1	7	1	20	80	3.60	5.17	1.47
simulation	TEX	2	Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	14	0.00	1.76	0.72
simulation	TEX	3	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	1.02	0.45
simulation	TEX	4	Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	4	4	4	0	1	1	7	27	36.00	5.27	1.32
simulation	DET	1	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	3	0	5	24	9.00	5.54	1.92
simulation	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	12	0.00	3.68	1.36
simulation	DET	3	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	14	0.00	0.57	1.21
simulation	DET	4	Burch Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	2.45	1.36
simulation	DET	5	Brant Hurter	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	13	0.00	1.84	0.75
simulation	DET	6	Drew Anderson	Reliever	1.0	4	2	2	1	0	0	8	34	18.00	5.12	1.29
simulation	DET	7	Brenan Hanifee	Reliever	3.0	1	0	0	1	2	0	11	43	0.00	0.00	1.00

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TEX	Jack Leiter	Starter	5.0	2	4	1	7	20	80
TEX	Jakob Junis	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
TEX	Jacob Latz	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	17
TEX	Cole Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	4	4	0	1	7	27
DET	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	3	5	24
DET	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	12
DET	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	14
DET	Burch Smith	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	11
DET	Brant Hurter	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	13
DET	Drew Anderson	Reliever	1.0	2	4	1	0	8	34
DET	Brenan Hanifee	Reliever	3.0	0	1	1	2	11	43

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	error	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	0	0	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	0	0	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	0	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	0	0	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	0	0	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	error	1	1	2	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260503_TOR@MIN

20260503_TOR@MIN.json • 2026-05-03

TOR 5 - MIN 2

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 94INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match TOR pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=32 matches TOR BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match MIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match MIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match MIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=37 matches MIN BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 7, MIN 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 5 - MIN 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TOR; cap=0.58, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 7, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-04-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'confidence': 0.56775, 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260502_TOR@MIN.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'TOR', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 2 MIN', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_TOR@MIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@MIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 130.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 130.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 5 - 2 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 5 - 2 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 5-2.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TOR wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TOR wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 6/34 = 0.176.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 13/33 = 0.394.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match TOR pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match TOR pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=32 matches TOR BF=32.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match MIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match MIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match MIN pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=37 matches MIN BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.580.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.420.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 7 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 7.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.312/0.724.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 7, MIN 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 5 - MIN 2.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TOR; cap=0.58, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': 5, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 11, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 7, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 4, 'winner': 'TOR'}, {'date': '2026-04-30', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'MIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-05-02', 'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'confidence': 0.56775, 'actual_winner': 'TOR', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260502_TOR@MIN.json'}]}, 'final_score_winner': 'TOR', 'pre_simulation_winner': 'TOR', 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False}, 'final_prediction_sync': {'pre_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 4, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 4 MIN', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'final_simulation_score': {'away_runs': 5, 'home_runs': 2, 'score_text': 'TOR 5 - 2 MIN', 'winner': 'TOR'}, 'winner_flipped_by_simulation': False, 'away_run_delta': 0, 'home_run_delta': -2, 'total_run_delta': -2, 'score_source': 'scoring_simulation.final_score'}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-05-03.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260503_TOR@MIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@MIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 130.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 156.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 130.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 5 - 2 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 5 - 2 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 5-2.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.580.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TOR wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-2, final 5-2 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 7.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TOR wins 5-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 6/34 = 0.176.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 13/33 = 0.394.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.2974114418029785	4.996975421905518		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.580	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	2		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	5	7
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	4

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TOR	batting	34	7	0	2	2	5	5	2	8	0	1	0	0
current	TOR	pitching		4			1		2	1	9					9.0	2	0	0
current	MIN	batting	31	4	1	0	1	2	2	1	9	0	0	0	0
current	MIN	pitching		7			2		5	2	8					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	TOR	batting	34	7	0	2	2	5	5	2	8	0	1
simulation	TOR	pitching		4			1		2	1	9					9.0	2	32	130
simulation	MIN	batting	31	4	1	0	1	2	2	1	9	0	0
simulation	MIN	pitching		7			2		5	2	8					9.0	5	37	156

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	TOR		C	Tyler Heineman	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		2B	Ernie Clement	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		SS	Andrés Giménez	4	1	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		CF	Daulton Varsho	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	TOR		1B	Lenyn Sosa	4	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
current	TOR		DH	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	TOR		3B	Kazuma Okamoto	4	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
current	TOR		LF	Yohendrick Pinango	4	1	0	1	0	1	0	1	2	0	0.250
current	TOR		RF	Jesús Sánchez	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	MIN		2B	Luke Keaschall	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
current	MIN		CF	Austin Martin	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	MIN		3B	Royce Lewis	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIN		1B	Kody Clemens	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
current	MIN		SS	Brooks Lee	3	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0.333
current	MIN		RF	Matt Wallner	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	MIN		DH	Byron Buxton	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	MIN		C	Victor Caratini	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	MIN		LF	Trevor Larnach	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	1	LF	Yohendrick Pinango	4	1	0	1	0	1	0	1	2	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	2	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	4	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	3	DH	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	4	RF	Jesús Sánchez	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TOR	5	1B	Lenyn Sosa	4	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	TOR	6	CF	Daulton Varsho	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	TOR	7	2B	Ernie Clement	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	8	SS	Andrés Giménez	4	1	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	9	C	Tyler Heineman	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	1	DH	Byron Buxton	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	2	LF	Trevor Larnach	4	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	MIN	3	CF	Austin Martin	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	4	C	Victor Caratini	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	5	2B	Luke Keaschall	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	6	1B	Kody Clemens	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	7	3B	Royce Lewis	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	MIN	8	RF	Matt Wallner	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	9	SS	Brooks Lee	3	1	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TOR	1	Trey Yesavage	Starter	6.0	2	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.75
current	TOR	2	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	6.59	1.90
current	TOR	3	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.53	1.06
current	TOR	4	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	0.55	0.73
current	MIN	1	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	2	4	1	0	0	5.40	3.76	1.04
current	MIN	2	Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	18.00	5.02	1.40
current	MIN	3	Justin Topa	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.52	1.37
current	MIN	4	Kody Funderburk	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.08	1.38
current	MIN	5	Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.18	1.50
simulation	TOR	1	Trey Yesavage	Starter	6.0	2	0	0	1	8	0	21	93	0.00	0.00	0.75
simulation	TOR	2	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	12	0.00	0.53	1.06
simulation	TOR	3	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	1	5	14	9.00	0.55	0.73
simulation	TOR	4	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	3	11	9.00	6.59	1.90
simulation	MIN	1	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	2	4	1	22	96	5.40	3.76	1.04
simulation	MIN	2	Justin Topa	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	3.52	1.37
simulation	MIN	3	Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	1	5	18	18.00	5.02	1.40
simulation	MIN	4	Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	15	0.00	3.18	1.50
simulation	MIN	5	Kody Funderburk	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	14	0.00	2.08	1.38

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TOR	Trey Yesavage	Starter	6.0	0	2	1	8	21	93
TOR	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	12
TOR	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	0	5	14
TOR	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	11
MIN	Joe Ryan	Starter	5.0	3	5	2	4	22	96
MIN	Justin Topa	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
MIN	Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	0	1	5	18
MIN	Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	4	15
MIN	Kody Funderburk	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	14

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.