MLB JSON Audit Report

20260430_ARI@MIL

20260430_ARI@MIL.json • 2026-04-30

ARI 5 - MIL 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 94INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match MIL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match MIL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=40 matches MIL BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match ARI pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=43 matches ARI BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.516.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.516.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.484.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.318/0.736.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 11, MIL 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 5 - MIL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ARI; cap=0.6, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'ARI', 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'ARI'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 13, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 11, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'confidence': 0.5477109871622392, 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260429_ARI@MIL.json'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'confidence': 0.4562669067785317, 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 11, 'path': '20260428_ARI@MIL.json'}]}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-04-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260430_ARI@MIL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@MIL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 5 - 4 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 5 - 4 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 5-4.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.516.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ARI wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ARI wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 14/29 = 0.483.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 9/29 = 0.310.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	current:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ARI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ARI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ARI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting walks match MIL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting home runs match MIL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting hits match MIL pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ARI batting strikeouts match MIL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ARI PA=40 matches MIL BF=40.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ARI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ARI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting walks match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting home runs match ARI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting hits match ARI pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIL batting strikeouts match ARI pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIL PA=43 matches ARI BF=43.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ARI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ARI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ARI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ARI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ARI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.516.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.516.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.484.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.318/0.736.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: ARI 11, MIL 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: ARI 5 - MIL 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ARI; cap=0.6, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'opponent_team': 'ARI', 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -4, 'winner': 'ARI'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 13, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 11, 'winner': 'MIL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team': 'ARI', 'confidence': 0.5477109871622392, 'actual_winner': 'ARI', 'actual_margin': 4, 'path': '20260429_ARI@MIL.json'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team': 'MIL', 'confidence': 0.4562669067785317, 'actual_winner': 'MIL', 'actual_margin': 11, 'path': '20260428_ARI@MIL.json'}]}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-04-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260430_ARI@MIL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: ARI@MIL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 176.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 167.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ARI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ARI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 176.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 167.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ARI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ARI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ARI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ARI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ARI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: ARI 5 - 4 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: ARI 5 - 4 MIL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ARI wins 5-4.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.516.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ARI wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ARI wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ARI wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ARI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ARI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ARI wins and win_pct agree: 14/29 = 0.483.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIL wins and win_pct agree: 9/29 = 0.310.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	ARI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	MIL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.173615455627441	4.565174102783203		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	6	5	0.516	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	6	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	5	11
MIL	0	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	4	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	ARI	batting	38	11	3	1	1	5	5	2	6	0	0	0	0
current	ARI	pitching		9			1		4	7	7					9.0	4	0	0
current	MIL	batting	36	9	1	0	1	4	4	7	7	0	0	0	0
current	MIL	pitching		11			1		5	2	6					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	ARI	batting	38	11	3	1	1	5	5	2	6	0	0
simulation	ARI	pitching		9			1		4	7	7					9.0	4	43	176
simulation	MIL	batting	36	9	1	0	1	4	4	7	7	0	0
simulation	MIL	pitching		11			1		5	2	6					9.0	5	40	167

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	ARI		SS	Geraldo Perdomo	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
current	ARI		C	James McCann	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
current	ARI		CF	Alek Thomas	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	ARI		3B	Nolan Arenado	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.667
current	ARI		LF	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	4	2	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.500
current	ARI		DH	Adrian Del Castillo	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	ARI		RF	Corbin Carroll	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.750
current	ARI		1B	Ildemaro Vargas	4	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0.250
current	ARI		2B	Ketel Marte	5	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.400
current	MIL		1B	Jake Bauers	3	3	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	1.000
current	MIL		3B	Luis Rengifo	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	MIL		RF	Sal Frelick	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
current	MIL		2B	Brice Turang	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
current	MIL		CF	Garrett Mitchell	5	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.400
current	MIL		C	William Contreras	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	MIL		LF	Greg Jones	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	MIL		DH	Tyler Black	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	MIL		SS	David Hamilton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0
simulation	ARI	1	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	ARI	2	2B	Ketel Marte	5	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.400
simulation	ARI	3	RF	Corbin Carroll	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.750
simulation	ARI	4	DH	Adrian Del Castillo	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	ARI	5	1B	Ildemaro Vargas	4	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0.250
simulation	ARI	6	LF	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	4	2	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	ARI	7	3B	Nolan Arenado	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.667
simulation	ARI	8	CF	Alek Thomas	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	ARI	9	C	James McCann	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	MIL	1	CF	Garrett Mitchell	5	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.400
simulation	MIL	2	2B	Brice Turang	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.200
simulation	MIL	3	C	William Contreras	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	MIL	4	1B	Jake Bauers	3	3	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	1.000
simulation	MIL	5	DH	Tyler Black	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	MIL	6	3B	Luis Rengifo	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	MIL	7	RF	Sal Frelick	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	MIL	8	LF	Greg Jones	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	MIL	9	SS	David Hamilton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	ARI	1	Michael Soroka	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	4	4	0	0	0	5.40	2.60	1.16
current	ARI	3	Eduardo Rodriguez	Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00
current	ARI	4	Juan Morillo	Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	9.00
current	ARI	5	Merrill Kelly	Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00
current	ARI	6	Ryne Nelson	Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00
current	MIL	1	Brandon Woodruff	Starter	5.0	9	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	9.00	3.77	1.01
current	MIL	2	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.45	1.42
current	MIL	3	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.97	1.06
current	MIL	5	Grant Anderson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.60	1.07
current	MIL	6	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.60	1.30
simulation	ARI	1	Michael Soroka	Starter	5.0	5	3	3	4	4	0	24	92	5.40	2.60	1.16
simulation	ARI	2	Eduardo Rodriguez	Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	5	25	0.00
simulation	ARI	3	Juan Morillo	Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	1	6	23	9.00
simulation	ARI	4	Merrill Kelly	Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	16	0.00
simulation	ARI	5	Ryne Nelson	Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	20	0.00
simulation	MIL	1	Brandon Woodruff	Starter	5.0	9	5	5	1	1	1	25	95	9.00	3.77	1.01
simulation	MIL	2	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	18	0.00	3.97	1.06
simulation	MIL	3	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	22	0.00	2.45	1.42
simulation	MIL	4	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	0	4	20	0.00	3.60	1.30
simulation	MIL	5	Grant Anderson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	12	0.00	3.60	1.07

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
ARI	Michael Soroka	Starter	5.0	3	5	4	4	24	92
ARI	Eduardo Rodriguez	Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	1	5	25
ARI	Juan Morillo	Reliever	1.0	1	2	1	1	6	23
ARI	Merrill Kelly	Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	16
ARI	Ryne Nelson	Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	20
MIL	Brandon Woodruff	Starter	5.0	5	9	1	1	25	95
MIL	Abner Uribe	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	18
MIL	Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	22
MIL	Trevor Megill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	2	4	20
MIL	Grant Anderson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	12

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260430_COL@CIN

20260430_COL@CIN.json • 2026-04-30

COL 6 - CIN 5

WARNING

Final simulation is structurally valid with warnings to review. Risk score: 20.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 2PASS 94INFO 3

Action summary - what to fix first

Level	Problem group / fix	Count	Teams	Example
WARN	Pitching Review the listed finding and decide whether to fix the data or downgrade the rule.	0C / 0E / 2W	CIN	current:CIN starter line(s) need review: Andrew Abbott: 2.0 IP, 5 ER early hook simulation:CIN starter line(s) need review: Andrew Abbott: 2.0 IP, 5 ER early hook

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected
WARN	pitching	current	CIN		PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN starter line(s) need review: Andrew Abbott: 2.0 IP, 5 ER early hook
WARN	pitching	simulation	CIN		PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN starter line(s) need review: Andrew Abbott: 2.0 IP, 5 ER early hook

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
WARN	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN starter line(s) need review: Andrew Abbott: 2.0 IP, 5 ER early hook
WARN	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN starter line(s) need review: Andrew Abbott: 2.0 IP, 5 ER early hook
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match COL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match COL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match COL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=39 matches COL BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match CIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match CIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match CIN pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=41 matches CIN BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: COL 11, CIN 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: COL 6 - CIN 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for COL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick guardrail flipped the lean after a blowout miss and opponent breakout'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CIN', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': -6, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 13, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -11, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'CIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team': 'CIN', 'confidence': 0.6469851644237723, 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 11, 'path': '20260429_COL@CIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team': 'CIN', 'confidence': 0.61, 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 5, 'path': '20260428_COL@CIN.json'}]}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-04-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260430_COL@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@CIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 178.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 178.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 6 - 5 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 6 - 5 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: COL wins 6-5.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: COL wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: COL wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-5, final 6-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: COL wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 10/30 = 0.333.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 9/31 = 0.290.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	COL	BATTING_REALISM	current:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	CIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:CIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	COL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:COL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	CIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	COL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting walks match COL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting home runs match COL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting hits match COL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:CIN batting strikeouts match COL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:CIN PA=39 matches COL BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	CIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:CIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:COL batting walks match CIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:COL batting home runs match CIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:COL batting hits match CIN pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:COL batting strikeouts match CIN pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:COL PA=41 matches CIN BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	COL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:COL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	CIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	CIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	CIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	CIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	COL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	COL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	COL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	COL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	CIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	COL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.530.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.470.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: COL 11, CIN 6.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: COL 6 - CIN 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for COL; cap=0.53, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.53, 'winner_flipped': True, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs', 'repeat-pick guardrail flipped the lean after a blowout miss and opponent breakout'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'CIN', 'opponent_team': 'COL', 'h2h_net_margin': -6, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 13, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -11, 'winner': 'COL'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 5, 'winner': 'CIN'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team': 'CIN', 'confidence': 0.6469851644237723, 'actual_winner': 'COL', 'actual_margin': 11, 'path': '20260429_COL@CIN.json'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team': 'CIN', 'confidence': 0.61, 'actual_winner': 'CIN', 'actual_margin': 5, 'path': '20260428_COL@CIN.json'}]}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-04-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260430_COL@CIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: COL@CIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 178.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	CIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	CIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 178.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	COL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	COL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:CIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	CIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:CIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:COL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	COL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:COL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	CIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:CIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	COL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:COL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: COL 6 - 5 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: COL 6 - 5 CIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: COL wins 6-5.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.530.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: COL wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: COL wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 6-5, final 6-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: COL wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	CIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	CIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	CIN wins and win_pct agree: 10/30 = 0.333.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	COL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	COL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	COL wins and win_pct agree: 9/31 = 0.290.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	CIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	COL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.603581428527832	4.281658172607422		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	7	4	0.530	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	7	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6	11
CIN	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	6

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	COL	batting	37	11	3	0	2	6	6	2	11	1	1	0	0
current	COL	pitching		6			1		5	3	7					9.0	5	0	0
current	CIN	batting	33	6	1	0	1	5	5	3	7	0	3	0	0
current	CIN	pitching		11			2		6	2	11					9.0	6	0	0
simulation	COL	batting	37	11	3	0	2	6	6	2	11	1	1
simulation	COL	pitching		6			1		5	3	7					9.0	5	39	157
simulation	CIN	batting	33	6	1	0	1	5	5	3	7	0	3
simulation	CIN	pitching		11			2		6	2	11					9.0	6	41	178

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	COL		LF	Jordan Beck	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	COL		CF	Brenton Doyle	4	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	0	0.500
current	COL		C	Hunter Goodman	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.200
current	COL		2B	Willi Castro	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
current	COL		DH	Tyler Freeman	5	2	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.400
current	COL		1B	TJ Rumfield	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.500
current	COL		3B	Kyle Karros	2	2	1	0	1	0	1	0	1	1.000
current	COL		SS	Ezequiel Tovar	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	COL		RF	Troy Johnston	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.000
current	CIN		LF	JJ Bleday	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
current	CIN		DH	Nathaniel Lowe	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	CIN		SS	Elly De La Cruz	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	CIN		C	Tyler Stephenson	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
current	CIN		CF	TJ Friedl	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
current	CIN		3B	Sal Stewart	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.500
current	CIN		2B	Matt McLain	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.200
current	CIN		RF	Will Benson	3	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.333
current	CIN		1B	Spencer Steer	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	COL	1	LF	Jordan Beck	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	COL	2	CF	Brenton Doyle	4	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	0	0.500
simulation	COL	3	C	Hunter Goodman	5	1	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.200
simulation	COL	4	DH	Tyler Freeman	5	2	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	COL	5	2B	Willi Castro	5	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	COL	6	1B	TJ Rumfield	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	COL	7	3B	Kyle Karros	2	2	1	0	1	0	1	0	1	1.000
simulation	COL	8	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	COL	9	RF	Troy Johnston	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	1	CF	TJ Friedl	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	CIN	2	2B	Matt McLain	5	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	0.200
simulation	CIN	3	SS	Elly De La Cruz	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	4	3B	Sal Stewart	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	CIN	5	DH	Nathaniel Lowe	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	6	C	Tyler Stephenson	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	CIN	7	LF	JJ Bleday	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	CIN	8	1B	Spencer Steer	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	CIN	9	RF	Will Benson	3	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	1	0.333

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	COL	1	Michael Lorenzen	Starter	4.0	5	4	4	2	4	1	0	0	9.00	5.97	1.85
current	COL	2	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.50	0.67
current	COL	3	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.18	1.76
current	COL	4	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	2.77	1.08
current	COL	5	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	5.02	1.67
current	COL	6	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	6.94	1.97
current	CIN	1	Andrew Abbott	Starter	2.0	7	5	5	1	4	1	0	0	22.50	6.59	1.78
current	CIN	2	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	0.63	1.12
current	CIN	3	Connor Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.16	1.38
current	CIN	4	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.38	1.22
current	CIN	5	Pierce Johnson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.75	1.25
current	CIN	6	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.13	1.11
current	CIN	7	Chase Burns	Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00
current	CIN	8	Brandon Williamson	Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00
simulation	COL	1	Michael Lorenzen	Starter	4.0	5	4	4	2	4	1	21	80	9.00	5.97	1.85
simulation	COL	2	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	3	14	9.00	6.94	1.97
simulation	COL	3	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	9	0.00	0.50	0.67
simulation	COL	4	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	15	0.00	2.77	1.08
simulation	COL	5	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	0	6	25	0.00	5.02	1.67
simulation	COL	6	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	14	0.00	3.18	1.76
simulation	CIN	1	Andrew Abbott	Starter	2.0	7	5	5	1	4	1	14	63	22.50	6.59	1.78
simulation	CIN	2	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	14	0.00	4.38	1.22
simulation	CIN	3	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	2.13	1.11
simulation	CIN	4	Connor Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	2.16	1.38
simulation	CIN	5	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	21	0.00	0.63	1.12
simulation	CIN	6	Pierce Johnson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	19	0.00	3.75	1.25
simulation	CIN	7	Chase Burns	Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	5	19	9.00
simulation	CIN	8	Brandon Williamson	Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	18	0.00

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
COL	Michael Lorenzen	Starter	4.0	4	5	2	4	21	80
COL	Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	14
COL	Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	9
COL	Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	15
COL	Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	6	25
COL	Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	14
CIN	Andrew Abbott	Starter	2.0	5	7	1	4	14	63
CIN	Emilio Pagán	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	14
CIN	Tony Santillan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	11
CIN	Connor Phillips	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
CIN	Brock Burke	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	21
CIN	Pierce Johnson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	19
CIN	Chase Burns	Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	5	19
CIN	Brandon Williamson	Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	2	4	18

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	warning	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	0	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	0	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	0	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	0	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	0	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	0	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	0	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	0	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	0	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	0	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	0	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	0	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	0	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	0	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	0	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	0	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	0	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	0	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	0	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	0	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	0	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	warning	2	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	0	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	0	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	0	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	0	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	0	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	0	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	0	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	0	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	0	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	0	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	0	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	0	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	0	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	0	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	0	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	0	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	0	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260430_DET@ATL

20260430_DET@ATL.json • 2026-04-30

DET 4 - ATL 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 94INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match DET pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match DET pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match DET pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=36 matches DET BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=39 matches ATL BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.427.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.573.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.573.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.420/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 7, ATL 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 4 - ATL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ATL; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.6807368495496199, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260429_DET@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.89, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260428_DET@ATL.json'}]}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-04-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260430_DET@ATL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@ATL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 4 - 5 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 4 - 5 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 5-4.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.573.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 11/31 = 0.355.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 10/31 = 0.323.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	current:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	DET	BATTING_REALISM	current:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	ATL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:ATL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	DET	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:DET hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	ATL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	DET	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting walks match DET pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting home runs match DET pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting hits match DET pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:ATL batting strikeouts match DET pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:ATL PA=36 matches DET BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	ATL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:ATL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:DET batting walks match ATL pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:DET batting home runs match ATL pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:DET batting hits match ATL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:DET batting strikeouts match ATL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:DET PA=39 matches ATL BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	DET	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:DET runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	ATL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	ATL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	ATL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	ATL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	DET current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	DET current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	DET current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	DET hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	ATL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	DET	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.427.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.573.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.573.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.420/0.900.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: DET 7, ATL 9.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: DET 4 - ATL 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for ATL; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'opponent_team': 'DET', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 1, 'winner': 'ATL'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 3, 'winner': 'ATL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.6807368495496199, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'path': '20260429_DET@ATL.json'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team': 'ATL', 'confidence': 0.89, 'actual_winner': 'ATL', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260428_DET@ATL.json'}]}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-04-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260430_DET@ATL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: DET@ATL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 147.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	ATL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	ATL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 170.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	DET	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	DET pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 147.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	current:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	current:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:ATL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	ATL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:ATL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:DET pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	DET	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:DET includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	ATL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:ATL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	DET	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:DET pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: DET 4 - 5 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: DET 4 - 5 ATL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: ATL wins 5-4.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.573.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 4/10 (0.400).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: ATL wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: ATL wins 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-5, final 4-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: ATL wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	ATL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	ATL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	ATL wins and win_pct agree: 11/31 = 0.355.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	DET recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	DET	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	DET wins and win_pct agree: 10/31 = 0.323.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	ATL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	DET	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.94277024269104	3.9206717014312744		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	3	4	0.573	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	3	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	4	7
ATL	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	1	5	9

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	DET	batting	32	7	1	0	1	4	4	5	4	2	0	0	0
current	DET	pitching		9			2		5	1	7					8.2	5	0	0
current	ATL	batting	35	9	3	0	2	5	5	1	7	0	0	0	0
current	ATL	pitching		7			1		4	5	4					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	DET	batting	32	7	1	0	1	4	4	5	4	2	0
simulation	DET	pitching		9			2		5	1	7					8.2	5	36	147
simulation	ATL	batting	35	9	3	0	2	5	5	1	7	0	0
simulation	ATL	pitching		7			1		4	5	4					9.0	4	39	170

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	DET		RF	Kerry Carpenter	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	DET		CF	Matt Vierling	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	DET		2B	Gleyber Torres	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
current	DET		LF	Riley Greene	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	DET		C	Jake Rogers	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	DET		1B	Spencer Torkelson	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.500
current	DET		DH	Colt Keith	5	2	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.400
current	DET		SS	Kevin McGonigle	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	DET		3B	Hao-Yu Lee	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.000
current	ATL		2B	Ozzie Albies	4	2	1	1	1	3	0	0	0.500
current	ATL		RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
current	ATL		1B	Matt Olson	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	ATL		3B	Austin Riley	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
current	ATL		DH	Kyle Farmer	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.500
current	ATL		C	Drake Baldwin	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
current	ATL		SS	Jorge Mateo	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
current	ATL		LF	Mauricio Dubón	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
current	ATL		CF	Eli White	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	DET	1	SS	Kevin McGonigle	4	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	DET	2	2B	Gleyber Torres	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	DET	3	DH	Colt Keith	5	2	1	0	1	1	0	1	0.400
simulation	DET	4	LF	Riley Greene	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	DET	5	1B	Spencer Torkelson	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	DET	6	RF	Kerry Carpenter	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	DET	7	CF	Matt Vierling	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	DET	8	3B	Hao-Yu Lee	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	DET	9	C	Jake Rogers	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	ATL	1	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	ATL	2	C	Drake Baldwin	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	ATL	3	2B	Ozzie Albies	4	2	1	1	1	3	0	0	0.500
simulation	ATL	4	1B	Matt Olson	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	ATL	5	3B	Austin Riley	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	ATL	6	LF	Mauricio Dubón	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	ATL	7	DH	Kyle Farmer	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	ATL	8	SS	Jorge Mateo	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	ATL	9	CF	Eli White	4	2	1	0	1	1	0	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	DET	1	Framber Valdez	Starter	5.0	4	2	2	0	4	2	0	0	3.60	3.41	1.31
current	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.68	1.36
current	DET	3	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.61	1.23
current	DET	4	Will Vest	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	18.00	6.17	1.46
current	DET	5	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	13.50	5.54	1.92
current	ATL	1	Bryce Elder	Starter	4.0	4	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	0.00	1.95	0.97
current	ATL	2	Aaron Bummer	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	18.00	4.66	1.34
current	ATL	3	Joel Payamps	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	9.00	6.14	1.23
current	ATL	4	José Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.00	5.87	1.96
current	ATL	5	Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.71	0.87
current	ATL	6	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.38	1.00
simulation	DET	1	Framber Valdez	Starter	5.0	4	2	2	0	4	2	19	83	3.60	3.41	1.31
simulation	DET	2	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	17	0.00	3.68	1.36
simulation	DET	3	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	10	0.00	0.61	1.23
simulation	DET	4	Will Vest	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	0	6	23	18.00	6.17	1.46
simulation	DET	5	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	0	4	14	13.50	5.54	1.92
simulation	ATL	1	Bryce Elder	Starter	4.0	4	0	0	2	4	0	18	83	0.00	1.95	0.97
simulation	ATL	2	Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	12	0.00	0.71	0.87
simulation	ATL	3	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	1.38	1.00
simulation	ATL	4	Aaron Bummer	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	2	0	0	7	30	18.00	4.66	1.34
simulation	ATL	5	Joel Payamps	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	4	16	9.00	6.14	1.23
simulation	ATL	6	José Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	1	0	0	4	16	9.00	5.87	1.96

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
DET	Framber Valdez	Starter	5.0	2	4	0	4	19	83
DET	Kenley Jansen	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	17
DET	Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	10
DET	Will Vest	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	1	1	6	23
DET	Tyler Holton	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	2	0	1	4	14
ATL	Bryce Elder	Starter	4.0	0	4	2	4	18	83
ATL	Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	12
ATL	Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
ATL	Aaron Bummer	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	7	30
ATL	Joel Payamps	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	0	4	16
ATL	José Suarez	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	1	0	4	16

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260430_HOU@BAL

20260430_HOU@BAL.json • 2026-04-30

HOU 5 - BAL 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 94INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match HOU pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match HOU pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match HOU pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=38 matches HOU BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match BAL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match BAL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=36 matches BAL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.427.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.573.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.573.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 6, BAL 12.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 5 - BAL 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BAL; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'opponent_team': 'HOU', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'BAL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'confidence': 0.5430623272074528, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260429_HOU@BAL.json'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'confidence': 0.5381166039077898, 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260428_HOU@BAL.json'}]}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-04-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260430_HOU@BAL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@BAL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 5 - 6 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 5 - 6 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BAL wins 6-5.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.573.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BAL wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BAL wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BAL wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 11/29 = 0.379.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 13/30 = 0.433.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	current:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	current:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	BAL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:BAL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	HOU	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:HOU hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	BAL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	HOU	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting walks match HOU pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting home runs match HOU pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting hits match HOU pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:BAL batting strikeouts match HOU pitching: 12.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:BAL PA=38 matches HOU BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	BAL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:BAL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting walks match BAL pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting home runs match BAL pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting hits match BAL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:HOU batting strikeouts match BAL pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:HOU PA=36 matches BAL BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	HOU	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:HOU runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	BAL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	BAL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	BAL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	BAL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	HOU current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	HOU current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	HOU current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	HOU hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	BAL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	HOU	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.427.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.573.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.573.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 11 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 11.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: HOU 6, BAL 12.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: HOU 5 - BAL 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for BAL; cap=0.58, reasons=local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['local prediction memory shows 2 straight prior same-side picks'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'opponent_team': 'HOU', 'h2h_net_margin': 2, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 5, 'opponent_runs': 3, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 2, 'winner': 'BAL'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 2, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'confidence': 0.5430623272074528, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260429_HOU@BAL.json'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team': 'BAL', 'confidence': 0.5381166039077898, 'actual_winner': 'BAL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'path': '20260428_HOU@BAL.json'}]}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-04-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260430_HOU@BAL.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: HOU@BAL.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 166.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	BAL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	BAL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 154.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	HOU	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	HOU pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 166.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	current:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	current:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:BAL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	BAL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:BAL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:HOU pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	HOU	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:HOU includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	BAL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:BAL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.1.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	HOU	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:HOU pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: HOU 5 - 6 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: HOU 5 - 6 BAL.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: BAL wins 6-5.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.573.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: BAL wins 6-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: BAL wins 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-6, final 5-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 11.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: BAL wins 6-5.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	BAL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	BAL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	BAL wins and win_pct agree: 11/29 = 0.379.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	HOU recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	HOU	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	HOU wins and win_pct agree: 13/30 = 0.433.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	BAL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	HOU	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.004882335662842	2.615891456604004		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	3		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.573	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	5	6
BAL	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	3	6	12

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	HOU	batting	33	6	0	0	3	5	5	2	8	0	1	0	0
current	HOU	pitching		12			2		6	1	12					8.1	6	0	0
current	BAL	batting	37	12	1	1	2	6	6	1	12	0	0	0	0
current	BAL	pitching		6			3		5	2	8					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	HOU	batting	33	6	0	0	3	5	5	2	8	0	1
simulation	HOU	pitching		12			2		6	1	12					8.1	6	38	166
simulation	BAL	batting	37	12	1	1	2	6	6	1	12	0	0
simulation	BAL	pitching		6			3		5	2	8					9.0	5	36	154

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	HOU		2B	Jose Altuve	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	HOU		1B	Christian Walker	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	HOU		SS	Carlos Correa	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	HOU		DH	Yainer Diaz	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	HOU		CF	Brice Matthews	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	HOU		C	Christian Vázquez	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
current	HOU		RF	Dustin Harris	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
current	HOU		LF	Yordan Alvarez	4	3	0	0	3	1	5	0	0	0	0.750
current	HOU		3B	Isaac Paredes	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
current	BAL		RF	Dylan Beavers	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	BAL		DH	Gunnar Henderson	5	2	0	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	0.400
current	BAL		CF	Colton Cowser	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.500
current	BAL		2B	Jeremiah Jackson	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
current	BAL		3B	Coby Mayo	3	2	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0.667
current	BAL		LF	Taylor Ward	5	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
current	BAL		1B	Pete Alonso	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	BAL		C	Adley Rutschman	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
current	BAL		SS	Blaze Alexander	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	HOU	1	SS	Carlos Correa	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	HOU	2	LF	Yordan Alvarez	4	3	0	0	3	1	5	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	HOU	3	3B	Isaac Paredes	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	4	1B	Christian Walker	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	5	2B	Jose Altuve	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	6	DH	Yainer Diaz	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	7	CF	Brice Matthews	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	HOU	8	RF	Dustin Harris	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.000
simulation	HOU	9	C	Christian Vázquez	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	BAL	1	DH	Gunnar Henderson	5	2	0	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	0.400
simulation	BAL	2	LF	Taylor Ward	5	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0.400
simulation	BAL	3	C	Adley Rutschman	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0.250
simulation	BAL	4	1B	Pete Alonso	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	BAL	5	RF	Dylan Beavers	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	6	2B	Jeremiah Jackson	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0.000
simulation	BAL	7	CF	Colton Cowser	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	0.500
simulation	BAL	8	3B	Coby Mayo	3	2	0	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0.667
simulation	BAL	9	SS	Blaze Alexander	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.500

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	HOU	1	Peter Lambert	Starter	5.0	4	2	2	1	7	1	0	0	3.60	3.27	1.27
current	HOU	3	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	9.00	12.96	2.64
current	HOU	4	Bryan King	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.86	1.37
current	HOU	5	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	6.10	1.45
current	HOU	6	Kai-Wei Teng	Middle Reliever	0.1	4	3	3	0	1	0	0	0	81.00	2.75	1.02
current	BAL	1	Chris Bassitt	Starter	5.0	5	4	4	1	0	2	0	0	7.20	6.75	2.06
current	BAL	2	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	1.00
current	BAL	3	Anthony Nunez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	2.51	0.84
current	BAL	4	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	9.00	0.67	0.38
current	BAL	5	Ryan Helsley	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	2.53	1.31
simulation	HOU	1	Peter Lambert	Starter	5.0	4	2	2	1	7	1	20	92	3.60	3.27	1.27
simulation	HOU	2	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	13	0.00	6.10	1.45
simulation	HOU	3	Bryan King	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	5	17	0.00	3.86	1.37
simulation	HOU	4	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	1	5	21	9.00	12.96	2.64
simulation	HOU	5	Kai-Wei Teng	Middle Reliever	0.1	4	3	3	0	1	0	5	23	81.00	2.75	1.02
simulation	BAL	1	Chris Bassitt	Starter	5.0	5	4	4	1	0	2	22	85	7.20	6.75	2.06
simulation	BAL	2	Ryan Helsley	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	18	0.00	2.53	1.31
simulation	BAL	3	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	12	0.00	0.00	1.00
simulation	BAL	4	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	1	4	20	9.00	0.67	0.38
simulation	BAL	5	Anthony Nunez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	19	0.00	2.51	0.84

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
HOU	Peter Lambert	Starter	5.0	2	4	1	7	20	92
HOU	Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	13
HOU	Bryan King	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	1	5	17
HOU	Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	2	5	21
HOU	Kai-Wei Teng	Middle Reliever	0.1	3	4	0	1	5	23
BAL	Chris Bassitt	Starter	5.0	4	5	1	0	22	85
BAL	Ryan Helsley	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	3	3	18
BAL	Andrew Kittredge	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	12
BAL	Rico Garcia	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	2	4	20
BAL	Anthony Nunez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	19

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260430_KC@OAK

20260430_KC@OAK.json • 2026-04-30

KC 3 - OAK 5

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 95INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match OAK pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match OAK pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=34 matches OAK BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match KC pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=34 matches KC BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.436.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.564.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.564.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 5, OAK 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 3 - OAK 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for OAK; cap=0.6, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'KC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'confidence': 0.6592559268070816, 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260429_KC@OAK.json'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'confidence': 0.4776849255990811, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260428_KC@OAK.json'}]}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-04-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260430_KC@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@OAK.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 3 - 5 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 3 - 5 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: OAK wins 5-3.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.564.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: OAK wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: OAK wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: OAK wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 9/30 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 8/30 = 0.267.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	KC	BATTING_REALISM	current:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	current:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	KC	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:KC hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	OAK	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:OAK hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	KC	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	OAK	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:KC batting walks match OAK pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:KC batting home runs match OAK pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:KC batting hits match OAK pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:KC batting strikeouts match OAK pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:KC PA=34 matches OAK BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	KC	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:KC runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting walks match KC pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting home runs match KC pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting hits match KC pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:OAK batting strikeouts match KC pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:OAK PA=34 matches KC BF=34.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	OAK	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:OAK runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	KC current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	KC current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	KC current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	KC hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	OAK current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	OAK current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	OAK current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	OAK hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	KC	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	OAK	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.436.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.564.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.564.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 8 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 8.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_OUTS	Inning 9 home marked not_played with empty stats.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: KC 5, OAK 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: KC 3 - OAK 5.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for OAK; cap=0.6, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.6, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'OAK', 'opponent_team': 'KC', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': False, 'split_recent_h2h': False, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 1, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'KC'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'confidence': 0.6592559268070816, 'actual_winner': 'KC', 'actual_margin': 3, 'path': '20260429_KC@OAK.json'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team': 'KC', 'confidence': 0.4776849255990811, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260428_KC@OAK.json'}]}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-04-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260430_KC@OAK.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: KC@OAK.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 132.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 159.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	KC	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	KC pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 132.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	OAK	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	OAK pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 159.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	current:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	current:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	current:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	current:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:KC pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	KC	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:KC includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:OAK pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	OAK	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:OAK includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	KC	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:KC pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	OAK	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:OAK pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: KC 3 - 5 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: KC 3 - 5 OAK.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: OAK wins 5-3.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.564.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 6/10 (0.600).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: OAK wins 5-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: OAK wins 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-5.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-5, final 3-5 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 8.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: OAK wins 5-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	KC recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	KC	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	KC wins and win_pct agree: 9/30 = 0.300.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	OAK recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	OAK	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	OAK wins and win_pct agree: 8/30 = 0.267.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	KC	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	OAK	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.082079887390137	4.128493785858154		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	6	0.564	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	5	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	5		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	3	5
OAK	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	2	0	5	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	KC	batting	30	5	1	0	1	3	3	3	9	1	0	0	0
current	KC	pitching		10			3		5	0	5					8.0	5	0	0
current	OAK	batting	34	10	1	0	3	5	5	0	5	0	0	0	0
current	OAK	pitching		5			1		3	3	9					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	KC	batting	30	5	1	0	1	3	3	3	9	1	0
simulation	KC	pitching		10			3		5	0	5					8.0	5	34	132
simulation	OAK	batting	34	10	1	0	3	5	5	0	5	0	0
simulation	OAK	pitching		5			1		3	3	9					9.0	3	34	159

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	KC		LF	Isaac Collins	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.333
current	KC		2B	Nick Loftin	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	KC		C	Elias Díaz	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
current	KC		DH	Carter Jensen	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	KC		RF	Starling Marte	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
current	KC		SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
current	KC		CF	Lane Thomas	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	KC		3B	Maikel Garcia	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	KC		1B	Salvador Perez	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	3	0.000
current	OAK		3B	Darell Hernaiz	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		LF	Carlos Cortes	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.500
current	OAK		SS	Jacob Wilson	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	OAK		DH	Shea Langeliers	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
current	OAK		C	Austin Wynns	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	OAK		CF	Lawrence Butler	3	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.667
current	OAK		1B	Nick Kurtz	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
current	OAK		RF	Colby Thomas	4	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.750
current	OAK		2B	Zack Gelof	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	KC	1	3B	Maikel Garcia	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	KC	2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	KC	3	CF	Lane Thomas	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	4	1B	Salvador Perez	3	0	0	0	1	1	0	3	0.000
simulation	KC	5	2B	Nick Loftin	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	KC	6	RF	Starling Marte	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	KC	7	DH	Carter Jensen	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	KC	8	LF	Isaac Collins	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	0.333
simulation	KC	9	C	Elias Díaz	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.333
simulation	OAK	1	SS	Jacob Wilson	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	OAK	2	DH	Shea Langeliers	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	OAK	3	1B	Nick Kurtz	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.250
simulation	OAK	4	RF	Colby Thomas	4	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	OAK	5	3B	Darell Hernaiz	4	1	0	1	1	2	0	1	0.250
simulation	OAK	6	LF	Carlos Cortes	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0	0.500
simulation	OAK	7	C	Austin Wynns	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	OAK	8	2B	Zack Gelof	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.333
simulation	OAK	9	CF	Lawrence Butler	3	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.667

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	KC	1	Noah Cameron	Starter	6.0	7	3	3	0	4	2	0	0	4.50	5.13	1.52
current	KC	3	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.38	1.62
current	KC	4	Matt Strahm	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	18.00	4.22	1.41
current	OAK	1	Jeffrey Springs	Starter	6.0	2	2	2	3	7	0	0	0	3.00	3.79	1.01
current	OAK	2	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	9.00	2.65	1.53
current	OAK	3	Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.70	1.20
current	OAK	4	Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	6.23	1.77
simulation	KC	1	Noah Cameron	Starter	6.0	7	3	3	0	4	2	25	98	4.50	5.13	1.52
simulation	KC	2	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	4	15	0.00	4.38	1.62
simulation	KC	3	Matt Strahm	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	1	5	19	18.00	4.22	1.41
simulation	OAK	1	Jeffrey Springs	Starter	6.0	2	2	2	3	7	0	22	108	3.00	3.79	1.01
simulation	OAK	2	Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	10	0.00	2.70	1.20
simulation	OAK	3	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	1	6	26	9.00	2.65	1.53
simulation	OAK	4	Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	6.23	1.77

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
KC	Noah Cameron	Starter	6.0	3	7	0	4	25	98
KC	Lucas Erceg	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	15
KC	Matt Strahm	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	0	0	5	19
OAK	Jeffrey Springs	Starter	6.0	2	2	3	7	22	108
OAK	Joel Kuhnel	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	10
OAK	Hogan Harris	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	3	0	1	6	26
OAK	Mark Leiter Jr.	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	15

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	good	1	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260430_SF@PHI

20260430_SF@PHI.json • 2026-04-30

SF 2 - PHI 3

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 94INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match SF pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=36 matches SF BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match PHI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match PHI pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=39 matches PHI BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.444.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.556.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.556.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 5.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.318/0.736.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 11, PHI 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 2 - PHI 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.58, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 7, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-04-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-04-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'SF'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.5135174685984407, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260429_SF@PHI.json'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team': 'SF', 'confidence': 0.92, 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 7, 'path': '20260428_SF@PHI.json'}]}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-04-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260430_SF@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@PHI.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 2 - 3 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 2 - 3 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 3-2.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.556.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PHI wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 2-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-3, final 2-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 3-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 3/29 = 0.103.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 9/29 = 0.310.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	current:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	SF	BATTING_REALISM	current:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PHI	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PHI hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	SF	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:SF hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PHI	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	SF	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting walks match SF pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting home runs match SF pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting hits match SF pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PHI batting strikeouts match SF pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PHI PA=36 matches SF BF=36.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PHI	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PHI runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:SF batting walks match PHI pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:SF batting home runs match PHI pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:SF batting hits match PHI pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:SF batting strikeouts match PHI pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:SF PA=39 matches PHI BF=39.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	SF	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:SF runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 2.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PHI current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PHI current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PHI current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PHI hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	SF current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	SF current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	SF current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	SF hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PHI	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	SF	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.444.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.556.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.556.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 5.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.318/0.736.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: SF 11, PHI 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: SF 2 - PHI 3.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for PHI; cap=0.58, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.58, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'opponent_team': 'SF', 'h2h_net_margin': -4, 'opponent_breakout': False, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 7, 'opponent_runs': 0, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 7, 'winner': 'PHI'}, {'date': '2026-04-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 5, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -5, 'winner': 'SF'}, {'date': '2026-04-08', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 6, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'SF'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team': 'PHI', 'confidence': 0.5135174685984407, 'actual_winner': None, 'actual_margin': 0, 'path': '20260429_SF@PHI.json'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team': 'SF', 'confidence': 0.92, 'actual_winner': 'PHI', 'actual_margin': 7, 'path': '20260428_SF@PHI.json'}]}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-04-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260430_SF@PHI.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: SF@PHI.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 165.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 157.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PHI	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PHI pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 157.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	SF	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	SF pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 165.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	current:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	current:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PHI pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PHI	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PHI includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:SF pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	SF	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:SF includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PHI	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PHI pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	SF	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:SF pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: SF 2 - 3 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: SF 2 - 3 PHI.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: PHI wins 3-2.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.556.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: PHI wins 3-2.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: PHI wins 2-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 2-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 2-3, final 2-3 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: PHI wins 3-2.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PHI recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PHI	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PHI wins and win_pct agree: 3/29 = 0.103.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	SF recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	SF	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	SF wins and win_pct agree: 9/29 = 0.310.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	PHI	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	SF	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.64349102973938	5.182366847991943		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	5	0.556	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	5		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2	3		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SF	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	11
PHI	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	3	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	SF	batting	38	11	3	0	0	2	2	1	11	0	0	0	0
current	SF	pitching		7			1		3	3	6					8.2	3	0	0
current	PHI	batting	33	7	2	1	1	3	3	3	6	0	0	0	0
current	PHI	pitching		11			0		2	1	11					9.0	2	0	0
simulation	SF	batting	38	11	3	0	0	2	2	1	11	0	0
simulation	SF	pitching		7			1		3	3	6					8.2	3	36	165
simulation	PHI	batting	33	7	2	1	1	3	3	3	6	0	0
simulation	PHI	pitching		11			0		2	1	11					9.0	2	39	157

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	SF		3B	Matt Chapman	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.400
current	SF		RF	Jerar Encarnacion	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
current	SF		DH	Casey Schmitt	4	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.500
current	SF		CF	Jung Hoo Lee	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	SF		LF	Heliot Ramos	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
current	SF		SS	Willy Adames	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.667
current	SF		2B	Luis Arraez	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.400
current	SF		C	Patrick Bailey	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
current	SF		1B	Rafael Devers	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
current	PHI		1B	Bryce Harper	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	PHI		RF	Adolis García	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	PHI		CF	Justin Crawford	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
current	PHI		C	Rafael Marchán	3	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.667
current	PHI		LF	Brandon Marsh	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	PHI		DH	Kyle Schwarber	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
current	PHI		SS	Trea Turner	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	PHI		2B	Bryson Stott	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	PHI		3B	Edmundo Sosa	4	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	SF	1	LF	Heliot Ramos	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	SF	2	3B	Matt Chapman	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.400
simulation	SF	3	2B	Luis Arraez	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.400
simulation	SF	4	DH	Casey Schmitt	4	2	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.500
simulation	SF	5	1B	Rafael Devers	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	SF	6	SS	Willy Adames	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.667
simulation	SF	7	CF	Jung Hoo Lee	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	SF	8	RF	Jerar Encarnacion	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	SF	9	C	Patrick Bailey	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	PHI	1	SS	Trea Turner	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	2	DH	Kyle Schwarber	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	PHI	3	1B	Bryce Harper	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	PHI	4	RF	Adolis García	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	PHI	5	LF	Brandon Marsh	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.250
simulation	PHI	6	2B	Bryson Stott	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	PHI	7	3B	Edmundo Sosa	4	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	PHI	8	CF	Justin Crawford	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.333
simulation	PHI	9	C	Rafael Marchán	3	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0.667

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	SF	1	Logan Webb	Starter	5.0	2	1	1	3	4	1	0	0	1.80	4.86	1.38
current	SF	3	Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.48	1.35
current	SF	4	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	2.53	0.56
current	SF	5	Ryan Walker	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.00	1.33
current	SF	6	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	13.50	0.75	0.92
current	PHI	1	Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	5.0	9	2	2	1	7	0	0	0	3.60	2.94	1.60
current	PHI	2	Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.86	1.03
current	PHI	3	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	7.45	1.97
current	PHI	4	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2.70	1.30
current	PHI	6	Tim Mayza	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.94	1.00
simulation	SF	1	Logan Webb	Starter	5.0	2	1	1	3	4	1	20	101	1.80	4.86	1.38
simulation	SF	2	Ryan Walker	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.00	3.00	1.33
simulation	SF	3	Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	9	0.00	3.48	1.35
simulation	SF	4	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	0	6	25	9.00	2.53	0.56
simulation	SF	5	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	1	1	0	1	0	4	17	13.50	0.75	0.92
simulation	PHI	1	Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	5.0	9	2	2	1	7	0	25	99	3.60	2.94	1.60
simulation	PHI	2	Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	16	0.00	3.86	1.03
simulation	PHI	3	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	7.45	1.97
simulation	PHI	4	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	2.70	1.30
simulation	PHI	5	Tim Mayza	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	0	5	20	0.00	3.94	1.00

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
SF	Logan Webb	Starter	5.0	1	2	3	4	20	101
SF	Ryan Walker	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
SF	Erik Miller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	9
SF	Keaton Winn	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	3	0	1	6	25
SF	Caleb Kilian	Middle Reliever	0.2	1	2	0	1	4	17
PHI	Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	5.0	2	9	1	7	25	99
PHI	Brad Keller	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	16
PHI	José Alvarado	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	11
PHI	Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	11
PHI	Tim Mayza	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	2	5	20

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260430_STL@PIT

20260430_STL@PIT.json • 2026-04-30

STL 4 - PIT 1

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 94INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match STL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match STL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=38 matches STL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match PIT pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match PIT pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match PIT pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=41 matches PIT BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.620.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.620.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.380.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 5.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.318/0.736.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 11, PIT 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 4 - PIT 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for STL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.62, 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.5674057206020988, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'file': '20260429_STL@PIT.json'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.6424969282143206, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'file': '20260428_STL@PIT.json'}, {'date': '2026-04-27', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.5696162307750979, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'file': '20260427_STL@PIT.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-04-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260430_STL@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@PIT.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 182.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 182.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 4 - 1 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 4 - 1 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 4-1.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.620.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: STL wins 4-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 4-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-1, final 4-1 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 4-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 8/31 = 0.258.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 7/30 = 0.233.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	current:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	STL	BATTING_REALISM	current:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	PIT	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:PIT hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	STL	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:STL hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	PIT	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	STL	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting walks match STL pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting home runs match STL pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting hits match STL pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:PIT batting strikeouts match STL pitching: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:PIT PA=38 matches STL BF=38.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	PIT	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:PIT runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:STL batting walks match PIT pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:STL batting home runs match PIT pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:STL batting hits match PIT pitching: 11.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:STL batting strikeouts match PIT pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:STL PA=41 matches PIT BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	STL	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:STL runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	PIT current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	PIT current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	PIT current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	PIT hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	STL current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	STL current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	STL current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	STL hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	PIT	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	STL	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.620.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.620.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.380.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 5 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 5.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.318/0.736.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: STL 11, PIT 4.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: STL 4 - PIT 1.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	No stale repeat-pick pattern detected for STL.	{'winner_confidence': 0.62, 'h2h_net_margin': 7, 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 1, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team': 'STL', 'confidence': 0.5674057206020988, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 1, 'file': '20260429_STL@PIT.json'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.6424969282143206, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 4, 'file': '20260428_STL@PIT.json'}, {'date': '2026-04-27', 'predicted_team': 'PIT', 'confidence': 0.5696162307750979, 'actual_winner': 'STL', 'actual_margin': 2, 'file': '20260427_STL@PIT.json'}]}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-04-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260430_STL@PIT.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: STL@PIT.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 171.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 182.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	PIT	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	PIT pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 182.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	STL	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	STL pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 171.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	current:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	current:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	current:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	current:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:PIT pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	PIT	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:PIT includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:STL pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	STL	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:STL includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	PIT	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:PIT pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	STL	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:STL pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: STL 4 - 1 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: STL 4 - 1 PIT.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: STL wins 4-1.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.620.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: STL wins 4-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: STL wins 4-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 4-1.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 4-1, final 4-1 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 5.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: STL wins 4-1.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	PIT recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	PIT	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	PIT wins and win_pct agree: 8/31 = 0.258.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	STL recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	STL	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	STL wins and win_pct agree: 7/30 = 0.233.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	PIT	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	STL	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	3.8026416301727295	4.548780918121338		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	5		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.620	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4	1		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	4	11
PIT	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	STL	batting	37	11	2	0	4	4	3	10	1	0	0	0
current	STL	pitching		4				1	7	6					9.0	1	0	0
current	PIT	batting	31	4	0	0	1	1	7	6	0	0	0	0
current	PIT	pitching		11				4	3	10					9.0	4	0	0
simulation	STL	batting	37	11	2	0	4	4	3	10	1	0
simulation	STL	pitching		4				1	7	6					9.0	1	38	171
simulation	PIT	batting	31	4	0	0	1	1	7	6	0	0
simulation	PIT	pitching		11				4	3	10					9.0	4	41	182

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	STL		3B	Nolan Gorman	5	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
current	STL		C	Pedro Pagés	3	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.000
current	STL		DH	Iván Herrera	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	STL		SS	Masyn Winn	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
current	STL		1B	Alec Burleson	5	2	0	1	1	0	1	0.400
current	STL		2B	JJ Wetherholt	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
current	STL		CF	Victor Scott II	3	2	0	1	0	1	0	0.667
current	STL		RF	Jordan Walker	4	2	0	1	2	1	0	0.500
current	STL		LF	Nathan Church	4	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
current	PIT		LF	Jake Mangum	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	PIT		RF	Bryan Reynolds	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
current	PIT		3B	Nick Gonzales	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
current	PIT		SS	Konnor Griffin	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
current	PIT		CF	Oneil Cruz	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
current	PIT		C	Henry Davis	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	PIT		1B	Spencer Horwitz	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
current	PIT		2B	Brandon Lowe	5	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
current	PIT		DH	Ryan O'Hearn	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	STL	1	2B	JJ Wetherholt	5	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	STL	2	DH	Iván Herrera	4	1	1	0	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	STL	3	1B	Alec Burleson	5	2	0	1	1	0	1	0.400
simulation	STL	4	RF	Jordan Walker	4	2	0	1	2	1	0	0.500
simulation	STL	5	3B	Nolan Gorman	5	0	0	0	0	0	3	0.000
simulation	STL	6	SS	Masyn Winn	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	STL	7	LF	Nathan Church	4	1	0	0	0	0	2	0.250
simulation	STL	8	C	Pedro Pagés	3	0	0	1	1	0	2	0.000
simulation	STL	9	CF	Victor Scott II	3	2	0	1	0	1	0	0.667
simulation	PIT	1	CF	Oneil Cruz	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	0.250
simulation	PIT	2	2B	Brandon Lowe	5	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	PIT	3	RF	Bryan Reynolds	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	4	DH	Ryan O'Hearn	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	5	3B	Nick Gonzales	3	1	0	1	1	1	0	0.333
simulation	PIT	6	1B	Spencer Horwitz	3	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	PIT	7	SS	Konnor Griffin	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	PIT	8	LF	Jake Mangum	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	PIT	9	C	Henry Davis	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	STL	1	Hunter Dobbins	Starter	4.0	3	1	1	3	4	0	0	2.25
current	STL	3	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	1.17	0.78
current	STL	5	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0.00	4.05	1.12
current	STL	6	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.77	1.26
current	STL	7	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0.00	9.00	2.33
current	PIT	1	Paul Skenes	Starter	4.0	5	2	2	2	6	0	0	4.50	2.48	0.72
current	PIT	2	Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.07	1.16
current	PIT	3	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.00	1.84	0.82
current	PIT	4	Isaac Mattson	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.12	1.19
current	PIT	5	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0.00	3.65	1.38
current	PIT	6	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	2	0	0	9.00	1.93	1.18
simulation	STL	1	Hunter Dobbins	Starter	4.0	3	1	1	3	4	21	96	2.25
simulation	STL	2	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	3	12	0.00	1.17	0.78
simulation	STL	3	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	4	17	0.00	3.77	1.26
simulation	STL	4	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	3	0	6	30	0.00	9.00	2.33
simulation	STL	5	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	4	16	0.00	4.05	1.12
simulation	PIT	1	Paul Skenes	Starter	4.0	5	2	2	2	6	19	99	4.50	2.48	0.72
simulation	PIT	2	Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	4	15	0.00	3.07	1.16
simulation	PIT	3	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	5	18	9.00	1.84	0.82
simulation	PIT	4	Isaac Mattson	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	4	19	0.00	1.12	1.19
simulation	PIT	5	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	3	12	0.00	3.65	1.38
simulation	PIT	6	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	2	6	19	9.00	1.93	1.18

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
STL	Hunter Dobbins	Starter	4.0	1	3	3	4	21	96
STL	Riley O'Brien	Middle Reliever	2.0	0	0	0	1	3	12
STL	JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	17
STL	Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	3	0	6	30
STL	George Soriano	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	4	16
PIT	Paul Skenes	Starter	4.0	2	5	2	6	19	99
PIT	Dennis Santana	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	15
PIT	Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	2	0	0	5	18
PIT	Isaac Mattson	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	0	4	19
PIT	Mason Montgomery	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	12
PIT	Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	3	0	2	6	19

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260430_TOR@MIN

20260430_TOR@MIN.json • 2026-04-30

TOR 5 - MIN 4

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 94INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match TOR pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=41 matches TOR BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match MIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match MIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match MIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=37 matches MIN BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.568.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.568.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.432.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.295/0.689.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 9, MIN 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 5 - MIN 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TOR; cap=0.57, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.57, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-04-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-04-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'TOR'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-04-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260430_TOR@MIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@MIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 187.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 187.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 5 - 4 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 5 - 4 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 5-4.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.568.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TOR wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TOR wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 5/31 = 0.161.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 13/30 = 0.433.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	current:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	current:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	MIN	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:MIN hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	TOR	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:TOR hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	MIN	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	TOR	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting walks match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting home runs match TOR pitching: 3.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting hits match TOR pitching: 7.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:MIN batting strikeouts match TOR pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:MIN PA=41 matches TOR BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	MIN	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:MIN runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting walks match MIN pitching: 1.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting home runs match MIN pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting hits match MIN pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:TOR batting strikeouts match MIN pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:TOR PA=37 matches MIN BF=37.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	TOR	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:TOR runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 5.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	MIN current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	MIN current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	MIN current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	MIN hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	TOR current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	TOR current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	TOR current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	TOR hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	MIN	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	TOR	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.568.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.568.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.432.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.295/0.689.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: TOR 9, MIN 7.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: TOR 5 - MIN 4.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for TOR; cap=0.57, reasons=latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side; predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.57, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['latest same-matchup result beat the predicted side', 'predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'recent head-to-head margin does not support a strong repeat pick'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'TOR', 'opponent_team': 'MIN', 'h2h_net_margin': -3, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-12', 'predicted_team_runs': 2, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -6, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-04-11', 'predicted_team_runs': 4, 'opponent_runs': 7, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -3, 'winner': 'MIN'}, {'date': '2026-04-10', 'predicted_team_runs': 10, 'opponent_runs': 4, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 6, 'winner': 'TOR'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': False, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 0, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 0, 'prior_predictions': []}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-04-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260430_TOR@MIN.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: TOR@MIN.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 187.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	MIN	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	MIN pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 149.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	TOR	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	TOR pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 187.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	current:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	current:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	current:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	current:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:MIN pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	MIN	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:MIN includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:TOR pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	TOR	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:TOR includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	MIN	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:MIN pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	TOR	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:TOR pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: TOR 5 - 4 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: TOR 5 - 4 MIN.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: TOR wins 5-4.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.568.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 7/10 (0.700).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 2/10 (0.200).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: TOR wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: TOR wins 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 5-4.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 5-4, final 5-4 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: TOR wins 5-4.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	MIN recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	MIN	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	MIN wins and win_pct agree: 5/31 = 0.161.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	TOR recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	TOR	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	TOR wins and win_pct agree: 13/30 = 0.433.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	MIN	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	TOR	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.749207973480225	4.2957868576049805		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	5	4	0.568	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	5	4		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5	4		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	5	9
MIN	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	4	7

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	TOR	batting	36	9	2	0	2	5	5	1	8	0	0	0	0
current	TOR	pitching		7			3		4	7	8					9.0	4	0	0
current	MIN	batting	34	7	0	0	3	4	4	7	8	0	0	0	0
current	MIN	pitching		9			2		5	1	8					9.0	5	0	0
simulation	TOR	batting	36	9	2	0	2	5	5	1	8	0	0
simulation	TOR	pitching		7			3		4	7	8					9.0	4	41	187
simulation	MIN	batting	34	7	0	0	3	4	4	7	8	0	0
simulation	MIN	pitching		9			2		5	1	8					9.0	5	37	149

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG
current	TOR		DH	George Springer	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
current	TOR		1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
current	TOR		CF	Daulton Varsho	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		2B	Ernie Clement	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	TOR		3B	Kazuma Okamoto	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	2	0.250
current	TOR		C	Brandon Valenzuela	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
current	TOR		LF	Yohendrick Pinango	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
current	TOR		RF	Jesús Sánchez	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
current	TOR		SS	Andrés Giménez	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.500
current	MIN		1B	Kody Clemens	4	2	0	2	1	3	0	0	0.500
current	MIN		2B	Luke Keaschall	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.500
current	MIN		C	Ryan Jeffers	2	1	0	0	1	0	3	0	0.500
current	MIN		CF	Byron Buxton	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	MIN		DH	Josh Bell	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
current	MIN		3B	Royce Lewis	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	MIN		LF	Trevor Larnach	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
current	MIN		SS	Brooks Lee	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.500
current	MIN		RF	Austin Martin	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	TOR	1	DH	George Springer	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.200
simulation	TOR	2	RF	Jesús Sánchez	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.500
simulation	TOR	3	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0.333
simulation	TOR	4	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	4	1	0	1	1	3	0	2	0.250
simulation	TOR	5	CF	Daulton Varsho	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	6	2B	Ernie Clement	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	TOR	7	LF	Yohendrick Pinango	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	TOR	8	SS	Andrés Giménez	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0	0.500
simulation	TOR	9	C	Brandon Valenzuela	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.000
simulation	MIN	1	CF	Byron Buxton	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	MIN	2	LF	Trevor Larnach	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	0.000
simulation	MIN	3	C	Ryan Jeffers	2	1	0	0	1	0	3	0	0.500
simulation	MIN	4	DH	Josh Bell	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0.000
simulation	MIN	5	RF	Austin Martin	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.000
simulation	MIN	6	1B	Kody Clemens	4	2	0	2	1	3	0	0	0.500
simulation	MIN	7	2B	Luke Keaschall	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	0.500
simulation	MIN	8	SS	Brooks Lee	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	MIN	9	3B	Royce Lewis	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	TOR	1	Kevin Gausman	Starter	4.0	3	1	1	6	2	2	0	0	2.25	2.57	0.94
current	TOR	2	Braydon Fisher	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.59	1.06
current	TOR	3	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	9.00	6.39	1.82
current	TOR	4	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	3	1	0	0	18.00	0.56	1.00
current	TOR	5	Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.38	1.12
current	TOR	6	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.59	0.78
current	MIN	1	Bailey Ober	Starter	4.0	3	3	3	1	3	1	0	0	6.75	3.94	1.16
current	MIN	2	Anthony Banda	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	9.00	8.03	1.38
current	MIN	3	Cole Sands	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.63	1.37
current	MIN	4	Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	5.25	1.50
current	MIN	5	Justin Topa	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.29	1.39
current	MIN	6	Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	3.48	1.55
simulation	TOR	1	Kevin Gausman	Starter	4.0	3	1	1	6	2	2	21	93	2.25	2.57	0.94
simulation	TOR	2	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	0	3	12	9.00	6.39	1.82
simulation	TOR	3	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	5	20	0.00	0.59	0.78
simulation	TOR	4	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	2	0	3	1	5	25	18.00	0.56	1.00
simulation	TOR	5	Braydon Fisher	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	16	0.00	1.59	1.06
simulation	TOR	6	Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	21	0.00	3.38	1.12
simulation	MIN	1	Bailey Ober	Starter	4.0	3	3	3	1	3	1	16	66	6.75	3.94	1.16
simulation	MIN	2	Cole Sands	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	5	21	0.00	4.63	1.37
simulation	MIN	3	Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	10	0.00	3.48	1.55
simulation	MIN	4	Justin Topa	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	0.00	3.29	1.39
simulation	MIN	5	Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	0	6	27	9.00	5.25	1.50
simulation	MIN	6	Anthony Banda	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	1	4	14	9.00	8.03	1.38

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
TOR	Kevin Gausman	Starter	4.0	1	3	6	2	21	93
TOR	Jeff Hoffman	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	12
TOR	Tyler Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	1	5	20
TOR	Louis Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	2	0	3	5	25
TOR	Braydon Fisher	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	16
TOR	Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	21
MIN	Bailey Ober	Starter	4.0	3	3	1	3	16	66
MIN	Cole Sands	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	1	5	21
MIN	Taylor Rogers	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	10
MIN	Justin Topa	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	11
MIN	Eric Orze	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	3	0	1	6	27
MIN	Anthony Banda	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	2	4	14

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.

20260430_WAS@NYM

20260430_WAS@NYM.json • 2026-04-30

WAS 3 - NYM 6

PASS

Clean: no problems detected. Risk score: 0.

CRITICAL 0ERROR 0WARN 0PASS 94INFO 3

No action required

No critical, error, or warning findings were detected.

Problems table - exact rows

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Player	Rule	Message	Value	Expected

All findings - complete audit trail

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match WAS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match WAS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match WAS pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=41 matches WAS BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match NYM pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match NYM pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=35 matches NYM BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.460.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 5, NYM 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 3 - NYM 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYM; cap=0.54, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'opponent_team': 'NYM', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 14, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 12, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -8, 'winner': 'NYM'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'confidence': 0.5729576459312805, 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 12, 'path': '20260429_WAS@NYM.json'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.722776444591417, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 8, 'path': '20260428_WAS@NYM.json'}]}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-04-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260430_WAS@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@NYM.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 3 - 6 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 3 - 6 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 6-3.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.540.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYM wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-6, final 3-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 11/30 = 0.367.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 7/31 = 0.226.

Passed checks

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message	Value
PASS	batting	current	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	current:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	current	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	current:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	NYM	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:NYM hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting	simulation	WAS	BATTING_REALISM	simulation:WAS hitter lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	batting_totals	current	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	current	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	NYM	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	batting_totals	simulation	WAS	BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS batting totals equal summed player lines.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting walks match WAS pitching: 4.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting home runs match WAS pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting hits match WAS pitching: 10.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:NYM batting strikeouts match WAS pitching: 9.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:NYM PA=41 matches WAS BF=41.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	NYM	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:NYM runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 6.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting walks match NYM pitching: 2.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting home runs match NYM pitching: 0.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting hits match NYM pitching: 5.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	simulation:WAS batting strikeouts match NYM pitching: 8.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	PA_BF_MATCH	simulation:WAS PA=35 matches NYM BF=35.
PASS	boxscore_crosscheck	simulation	WAS	RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	simulation:WAS runs match final score and opposing pitching runs: 3.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	cross_schema	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current pitcher projected totals match final simulation pitching box score.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	NYM current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	NYM current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	NYM current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	NYM hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	WAS current lineup has 9 expected positions.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	WAS current model fallback usage is limited: 0/9 hitters.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	WAS current hitter names are populated.
PASS	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	WAS hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	NYM	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized batting totals match final simulation box score.
PASS	current_vs_final	cross-schema	WAS	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines mirror simulation box score.
PASS	data_leakage			H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	All head-to-head rows are dated before the prediction game date.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Home + away win probabilities sum to approximately 1.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	away_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.460.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	confidence is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	home_win_probability is in [0,1]: 0.540.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Final total runs 9 is reasonably close to low-score expected_total_runs 9.0.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score analysis factors are non-negative.
PASS	enhanced_prediction			LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	Low-score probability/confidence are valid: 0.289/0.678.
PASS	innings			INNINGS_COUNT	inning_by_inning_summary contains 9 innings.
PASS	innings			INNING_PLAY_SUMS	Detailed play totals match every half-inning line.
PASS	innings			INNING_SEQUENCE	Inning numbers are sequential.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_HITS	Inning hits match batting totals: WAS 5, NYM 10.
PASS	innings			INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	Inning runs sum to final score: WAS 3 - NYM 6.
PASS	matchup_recency			MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	Matchup recency guardrail applied for NYM; cap=0.54, reasons=predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs; opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup; recent head-to-head is split and volatile; a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result.	{'applied': True, 'confidence_cap': 0.54, 'winner_flipped': False, 'reasons': ['predicted side recently lost this matchup by 5+ runs', 'opponent already produced an 8+ run breakout in this matchup', 'recent head-to-head is split and volatile', 'a prior same-side pick already missed against the actual result', 'a prior same-side pick missed by 5+ actual runs'], 'signals': {'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'opponent_team': 'NYM', 'h2h_net_margin': 4, 'opponent_breakout': True, 'opponent_blowout_win': True, 'split_recent_h2h': True, 'recent_h2h': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team_runs': 14, 'opponent_runs': 2, 'margin_for_predicted_team': 12, 'winner': 'WAS'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team_runs': 0, 'opponent_runs': 8, 'margin_for_predicted_team': -8, 'winner': 'NYM'}], 'prediction_memory': {'available': True, 'consecutive_same_pick_count': 0, 'same_pick_actual_loss_count': 1, 'same_pick_blowout_loss_count': 1, 'prior_predictions': [{'date': '2026-04-29', 'predicted_team': 'NYM', 'confidence': 0.5729576459312805, 'actual_winner': 'WAS', 'actual_margin': 12, 'path': '20260429_WAS@NYM.json'}, {'date': '2026-04-28', 'predicted_team': 'WAS', 'confidence': 0.722776444591417, 'actual_winner': 'NYM', 'actual_margin': 8, 'path': '20260428_WAS@NYM.json'}]}}}
PASS	metadata			DATE_PARSE	Date is valid ISO format: 2026-04-30.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	Filename matches game_id: 20260430_WAS@NYM.
PASS	metadata			FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	Filename teams match JSON teams: WAS@NYM.
PASS	pitch_by_pitch			PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	Pitch-by-pitch speeds and zones are within sanity ranges.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	away pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 168.
PASS	pitch_count			PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	home pitcher pitch-by-pitch count matches pitch_count_summary total: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	NYM	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	NYM pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 151.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary pitcher rows match pitching box score.
PASS	pitch_count	simulation	WAS	PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	WAS pitch_count_summary total, row sum, and pitching total all match: 168.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	current:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	current:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	current:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	current	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	current:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:NYM pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	NYM	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:NYM includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_REALISM	simulation:WAS pitcher lines pass basic baseball constraints.
PASS	pitching	simulation	WAS	STARTER_PRESENT	simulation:WAS includes a starter/opener role.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	current	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	current:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 9.0.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	NYM	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:NYM pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching IP total matches pitcher sum: 8.2.
PASS	pitching_totals	simulation	WAS	PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	simulation:WAS pitching totals equal summed pitcher lines for available fields.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Enhanced AI score matches enhanced target: WAS 3 - 6 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation score matches final score: WAS 3 - 6 NYM.
PASS	prediction_comparison			PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	Inning simulation winner matches final score: NYM wins 6-3.
PASS	probability			CONFIDENCE_RANGE	Enhanced target confidence is in range: 0.540.
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	away recent_form record is coherent: 5/10 (0.500).
PASS	recent_form			RECENT_FORM_RANGE	home recent_form record is coherent: 3/10 (0.300).
PASS	report			REPORT_COMPLETE	All findings, passes, warnings, errors, and critical issues are rendered in the single HTML report.
PASS	schema			SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	Both major schemas are present: game, scoring_simulation, game_summary, prediction_comparison.
PASS	score			GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	game_summary is consistent: NYM wins 6-3.
PASS	score			SCORE_NO_TIE	Final score has a clear winner: NYM wins 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	simulation_result step matches final score: 3-6.
PASS	score			SCORE_STEP_ORDER	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
PASS	score			TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	Final score is close to enhanced target: target 3-6, final 3-6 (delta 0).
PASS	score			TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	total_runs field matches final score total: 9.
PASS	score			WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	winner field is consistent: NYM wins 6-3.
PASS	score	cross-schema		CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	NYM recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	NYM	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	NYM wins and win_pct agree: 11/30 = 0.367.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	RECENT_FORM_RANGE	WAS recent hitting/pitching rates are in valid ranges.
PASS	team_recent_performance	current	WAS	TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	WAS wins and win_pct agree: 7/31 = 0.226.

Info/context findings

Severity	Category	Source	Team	Rule	Message
INFO	current_payload	current	NYM	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	current_payload	current	WAS	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.
INFO	score_reconciliation			RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Score evolution

step	away_runs	home_runs	confidence	description
historical_ml	4.037501811981201	3.8003740310668945		Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4	4		Random variance applied (0.9-1.1)
enhanced_prediction	4	6	0.540	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence capped by matchup guardrail)
capped_target	4	6		Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	3	6		Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Inning-by-inning linescore

team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	5
NYM	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	3	6	10

Team totals - current + final simulation

src	team	type	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	SF	HBP	SB	CS	IP	ER	BF	Pitches
current	WAS	batting	32	5	3	0	0	3	3	2	8	0	1	0	0
current	WAS	pitching		10			2		6	4	9					8.2	6	0	0
current	NYM	batting	36	10	0	0	2	6	6	4	9	0	1	0	0
current	NYM	pitching		5			0		3	2	8					9.0	3	0	0
simulation	WAS	batting	32	5	3	0	0	3	3	2	8	0	1
simulation	WAS	pitching		10			2		6	4	9					8.2	6	41	168
simulation	NYM	batting	36	10	0	0	2	6	6	4	9	0	1
simulation	NYM	pitching		5			0		3	2	8					9.0	3	35	151

Batting lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	pos	name	AB	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	HBP	AVG
current	WAS		DH	Jose Fernandez	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
current	WAS		SS	CJ Abrams	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	WAS		RF	James Wood	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
current	WAS		1B	Luis García Jr.	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
current	WAS		LF	Daylen Lile	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
current	WAS		2B	Nasim Nuñez	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0.000
current	WAS		C	Drew Millas	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
current	WAS		3B	Jorbit Vivas	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
current	WAS		CF	Jacob Young	3	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.333
current	NYM		3B	Bo Bichette	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	0.200
current	NYM		RF	Brett Baty	5	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.200
current	NYM		C	Luis Torrens	2	1	0	1	1	3	1	0	1	0.500
current	NYM		DH	Juan Soto	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
current	NYM		LF	MJ Melendez	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
current	NYM		1B	Mark Vientos	4	3	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.750
current	NYM		2B	Marcus Semien	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
current	NYM		SS	Ronny Mauricio	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
current	NYM		CF	Carson Benge	4	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	WAS	1	RF	James Wood	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0.000
simulation	WAS	2	1B	Luis García Jr.	4	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	3	LF	Daylen Lile	4	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.250
simulation	WAS	4	SS	CJ Abrams	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	5	DH	Jose Fernandez	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	6	3B	Jorbit Vivas	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	7	2B	Nasim Nuñez	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0.000
simulation	WAS	8	C	Drew Millas	4	2	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.500
simulation	WAS	9	CF	Jacob Young	3	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0.333
simulation	NYM	1	3B	Bo Bichette	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	0.200
simulation	NYM	2	DH	Juan Soto	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	3	LF	MJ Melendez	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0.000
simulation	NYM	4	1B	Mark Vientos	4	3	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0.750
simulation	NYM	5	RF	Brett Baty	5	1	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0.200
simulation	NYM	6	2B	Marcus Semien	4	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0.250
simulation	NYM	7	CF	Carson Benge	4	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.750
simulation	NYM	8	C	Luis Torrens	2	1	0	1	1	3	1	0	1	0.500
simulation	NYM	9	SS	Ronny Mauricio	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.000

Pitching lines - current + final simulation

src	team	order	name	role	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	BF	Pitches	sim_ERA	season_ERA	season_WHIP
current	WAS	1	Miles Mikolas	Starter	4.0	4	3	3	2	3	1	0	0	6.75	8.49	1.84
current	WAS	2	Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	3.74	1.06
current	WAS	3	Cionel Pérez	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.50	1.43
current	WAS	4	Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0.00	3.18	1.41
current	WAS	5	PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.11	1.37
current	WAS	6	Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	3	3	1	2	1	0	0	40.50	2.77	1.69
current	NYM	1	Freddy Peralta	Starter	4.0	3	2	2	1	3	0	0	0	4.50	3.90	1.21
current	NYM	2	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.86	1.03
current	NYM	3	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	5.06	1.31
current	NYM	4	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	9.00	6.75	2.00
current	NYM	5	Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	1.35	1.05
current	NYM	6	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.00	4.91	1.09
simulation	WAS	1	Miles Mikolas	Starter	4.0	4	3	3	2	3	1	18	71	6.75	8.49	1.84
simulation	WAS	2	Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	3	14	0.00	3.18	1.41
simulation	WAS	3	Cionel Pérez	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	6	24	0.00	4.50	1.43
simulation	WAS	4	PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	0	5	15	0.00	4.11	1.37
simulation	WAS	5	Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	18	0.00	3.74	1.06
simulation	WAS	6	Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	0.2	2	3	3	1	2	1	5	26	40.50	2.77	1.69
simulation	NYM	1	Freddy Peralta	Starter	4.0	3	2	2	1	3	0	16	67	4.50	3.90	1.21
simulation	NYM	2	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	0	4	14	9.00	6.75	2.00
simulation	NYM	3	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	16	0.00	4.91	1.09
simulation	NYM	4	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	4	18	0.00	1.86	1.03
simulation	NYM	5	Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	5	21	0.00	1.35	1.05
simulation	NYM	6	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	15	0.00	5.06	1.31

Pitch count summary

team	pitcher	role	IP	R	H	BB	SO	BF	Pitches
WAS	Miles Mikolas	Starter	4.0	3	4	2	3	18	71
WAS	Gus Varland	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	14
WAS	Cionel Pérez	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	1	6	24
WAS	PJ Poulin	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	2	0	1	5	15
WAS	Brad Lord	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	0	4	18
WAS	Richard Lovelady	Middle Reliever	0.2	3	2	1	2	5	26
NYM	Freddy Peralta	Starter	4.0	2	3	1	3	16	67
NYM	Devin Williams	Middle Reliever	1.0	1	1	0	1	4	14
NYM	Luke Weaver	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	16
NYM	Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	1	1	4	18
NYM	Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	1	0	1	5	21
NYM	Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	15

Audit rule catalog

rule	status	pass	description
BATTING_REALISM	good	4	Player/team batting lines obey baseball constraints.
BATTING_TOTALS_SUM	good	4	Team batting totals equal the sum of player batting lines.
BAT_PITCH_BB_MATCH	good	2	Batting walks match opposing pitching walks allowed.
BAT_PITCH_HR_MATCH	good	2	Batting home runs match opposing pitching home runs allowed.
BAT_PITCH_H_MATCH	good	2	Batting hits match opposing pitching hits allowed.
BAT_PITCH_SO_MATCH	good	2	Batting strikeouts match opposing pitching strikeouts.
CONFIDENCE_RANGE	good	5	Confidence values are between 0 and 1.
CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	good	4	Current finalized player totals agree with final simulation box score.
CURRENT_LINEUP_SHAPE	good	2	Current predicted_performance contains a plausible 9-player lineup.
CURRENT_MODEL_ZERO_FALLBACK	good	2	Current model payload did not rely too heavily on all-zero model predictions.
CURRENT_NAMES_PRESENT	good	2	Current predicted_performance has usable player names.
CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	info	0	Pitcher lists duplicated across current sections are detected and reconciled.
CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	good	2	Current finalized hitter lines mirror the simulation box score.
CURRENT_PREDICTIONS_MATCH_FINALIZED	good	2	Current hitter predictions mirror finalized stats.
CURRENT_SCORE_MATCHES_SIM	good	1	game.predicted_runs matches scoring_simulation.final_score.
DATE_PARSE	good	1	Game date can be parsed as an ISO date.
FILENAME_GAME_ID_MATCH	good	1	Filename and game_id identify the same game.
FILENAME_TEAM_MATCH	good	1	Filename teams match the teams inside the JSON.
GAME_SUMMARY_MATCH	good	1	game_summary text agrees with final score.
H2H_DATA_LEAKAGE	good	1	Head-to-head history does not include same-day or future games in pregame mode.
INNINGS_COUNT	good	1	Inning count is valid for MLB.
INNING_OUTS	not triggered	0	Each played half inning has valid outs.
INNING_PLAY_SUMS	good	1	Detailed plays agree with inning runs, hits, outs, and pitches.
INNING_SEQUENCE	good	1	Innings are sequential and unique.
INNING_TOTAL_HITS	good	1	Inning hits sum to batting team hits.
INNING_TOTAL_RUNS	good	1	Inning runs sum to final score.
LOW_SCORE_ANALYSIS	good	3	Low-score probability factors are valid and directionally consistent.
MATCHUP_RECENCY_GUARDRAIL	good	1	Repeat picks are capped when recent same-matchup results contradict high confidence.
PA_BF_MATCH	good	2	Team plate appearances match opposing batters faced.
PITCHING_REALISM	good	4	Pitcher/team pitching lines obey baseball constraints.
PITCHING_TOTALS_SUM	good	8	Team pitching totals equal the sum of pitcher lines.
PITCH_COUNT_PITCHER_MATCH	good	2	Pitch count summary pitcher rows agree with pitching box score.
PITCH_COUNT_TOTAL_MATCH	good	4	Pitch count summary totals match team pitching totals.
PITCH_DETAIL_SANITY	good	1	Pitch-by-pitch details have plausible values.
PREDICTION_COMPARISON_MATCH	good	3	prediction_comparison scores agree with target/final result.
RECENT_FORM_RANGE	good	4	Recent-form metrics are within valid numeric ranges.
RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	info	0	When score_target_reconciliation is used, all final-facing sections are regenerated from the reconciled score.
REPORT_COMPLETE	good	1	Report includes every audit result in the all-findings table.
REPORT_CSV_EXPORT	not triggered	0	Optional CSV exports were written for summary and problem rows.
RUNS_MATCH_FINAL	good	2	Batting/pitching runs agree with final score.
SCHEMA_ROOTS_PRESENT	good	1	Expected JSON root sections exist and can be audited.
SCORE_NO_TIE	good	1	Final MLB score has a clear winner.
SCORE_STEP_FINAL_MATCH	good	1	score_evolution simulation_result matches final score.
SCORE_STEP_ORDER	good	1	Score evolution contains the expected ordered steps.
STARTER_PRESENT	good	4	Pitching staff includes a starter or opener when expected.
SYNTHETIC_SCORE_PLAYS	not triggered	0	Score reconciliation must not inject synthetic run or out plays.
TARGET_SCORE_DRIFT	good	1	Final score does not drift too far from enhanced target.
TEAM_RECENT_RECORD	good	2	team_recent_performance wins and win_pct agree with games_analyzed.
TOTAL_RUNS_MATCH	good	1	total_runs equals away + home runs.
WINNER_FIELD_MATCH	good	1	winner field agrees with the final score.