MLB Prediction System

Metric Evolution & Audit

Every number that moved, the stage that moved it, the input it used, and the arithmetic that proves it

Slate 20261013Games 1Checks 150Schema metric_evolution_report_v1Built 2026-10-12 17:48Z

Verdict across the slate

150 invariants checked across 1 games: NO DEFECT FOUND

How to read this, and what a defect looks like

Every figure below is shown with the arithmetic that produced it and a verdict beside it, so a disagreement can be pointed at a specific line rather than at the system as a whole.

Stage chain. Each game lists every stage that touched the score, the score after it, and whether it changed the target. Most stages move nothing on most games; a chain that showed only movement would misrepresent it. A stage reporting a delta while changed_target is false computed an adjustment and did not apply it, which is normal and is stated.
Blend arithmetic. The KPI blend must satisfy blended = baseline + weight x (kpi_only - baseline) for all three targets. A FAIL here means the layer reported a number it did not compute.
Rounding. Published integers must be the rounding of the blended runs under the documented tie rule. A FAIL means the published score and the continuous line describe different games.
Log5 additivity. For every player metric, own skill plus opponent plus the Log5 remainder must equal the total against the league, exactly. A FAIL means the decomposition is not a decomposition.
Direction. A green delta helps the subject, a red one hurts him. Strikeouts invert for a hitter. If an elite arm's opponent shows green strikeouts, the orientation is wrong and the whole player section is suspect.
Measured versus published. The KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The per-player metric adjustments here are a measurement of the same catalog at player level, not what the pipeline published; the one club-wide ratio the pipeline actually applied to hitter lines is printed beside them.
Integer versus continuous. The integer player line is a simulation draw reconciled to the box score. The continuous expected_* beside it is the model's own view and is the rankable quantity. Judging the model by the integer is how a working model looks broken.

Slate overview

Game	Published	p(home)	Stages	Stages that moved it	KPI applied	Δ away runs	Δ home runs	Simulation draw chosen on	0-out starter
20261013_CLE@TB	4 - 5	0.5788	8	1	no	+0.7278	+0.0905	-	no

KPI model in force. candidate 20261012T091527Z_e6f3fdba, 48 features built from 40 registered KPIs, blend weights {"home_runs": 0.38, "away_runs": 0.34, "home_win": 0.0}, frozen evaluation ends 2026-09-27. A target whose weight is zero contributes nothing by construction: the winner probability carries weight zero while its walk-forward verdict is inconclusive, so every win-probability movement below is expected to be exactly zero.

Per game

20261013_CLE@TB — published 4-5, 150 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20261013_CLE@TB.json, phase pregame, generated 2026-10-12T17:46:05, first pitch 2026-10-14T00:00:00.
Published 4 - 5 with p(home) 0.578787. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; ? of ? draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	4.05765736661641 - 5.326015945945228	0	0	0	0	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 5	-0.0577	-0.3260	-0.0577	-0.3260	yes	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	4 - 5	0	0	-0.0577	-0.3260	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
4. `kpi_layer`	4.0 - 5.0	0	0	-0.0577	-0.3260	no	away +0.7278; home +0.0905 Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept
5. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 5	0	0	-0.0577	-0.3260	no	away -0.3590; home +0.0239 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 5	0	0	-0.0577	-0.3260	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
7. `capped_target`	4 - 5	0	0	-0.0577	-0.3260	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8. `simulation_result`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

A stage reporting its own adjustment while Changed target reads no computed a movement that a later reconciliation absorbed, or that rounded away at the integer score. That is recorded rather than hidden.

KPI layer withheld. values_fresh. The published score is the pre-KPI baseline.

Per-player metric movement

CLE against Tanner Bibee (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CLE hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 21.8189 of 35.633 projected batters (61.2%) and the 2 projected relievers for the remaining 38.8%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Steven Kwan	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.929 → 0.854	-0.075	0.2169	0.2296n=620 Good	0.1960n=669 Good	0.2079	+0.054	-0.089	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9053 at 0.612 share (log5 0.2079 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9403 at 0.388 share (log5 0.2159 vs pen 0.2037) = x0.9189 \| starter alone would have been -0.088
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.431 → 0.508	+0.077	0.2212	0.1013n=620 Very good	0.2559n=669 Good	0.1202	-0.511	+0.148	-0.068 ok
		split	starter x1.1856 at 0.612 share (log5 0.1202 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.166 at 0.388 share (log5 0.1182 vs pen 0.2523) = x1.178 \| starter alone would have been +0.080
		Walkswhole staff	0.406 → 0.288	-0.118	0.0889	0.1280n=620 Very good	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0814	+0.167	-0.142	-0.057 ok
		split	starter x0.6362 at 0.612 share (log5 0.0814 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8268 at 0.388 share (log5 0.1058 vs pen 0.0730) = x0.7101 \| starter alone would have been -0.148
		Home runswhole staff	0.052 → 0.046	-0.005	0.0304	0.0125n=620 Poor	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0101	-0.076	-0.024	+0.014 ok
		split	starter x0.8105 at 0.612 share (log5 0.0101 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0235 at 0.388 share (log5 0.0128 vs pen 0.0311) = x0.8931 \| starter alone would have been -0.010
José Ramírez	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.830 → 0.761	-0.069	0.2169	0.2095n=531 Below average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1892	-0.032	-0.091	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.903 at 0.612 share (log5 0.1892 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9389 at 0.388 share (log5 0.1967 vs pen 0.2037) = x0.9169 \| starter alone would have been -0.081
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.680 → 0.795	+0.115	0.2212	0.1376n=531 Very good	0.2559n=669 Good	0.1619	-0.363	+0.151	-0.045 ok
		split	starter x1.1768 at 0.612 share (log5 0.1619 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1582 at 0.388 share (log5 0.1594 vs pen 0.2523) = x1.1696 \| starter alone would have been +0.120
		Walkswhole staff	0.360 → 0.254	-0.106	0.0889	0.1086n=531 Good	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0685	+0.085	-0.144	-0.029 ok
		split	starter x0.6311 at 0.612 share (log5 0.0685 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8237 at 0.388 share (log5 0.0894 vs pen 0.0730) = x0.7058 \| starter alone would have been -0.133
		Home runswhole staff	0.119 → 0.107	-0.013	0.0304	0.0252n=531 Below average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0205	-0.023	-0.025	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8125 at 0.612 share (log5 0.0205 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0232 at 0.388 share (log5 0.0258 vs pen 0.0311) = x0.8942 \| starter alone would have been -0.022
Chase DeLauter	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.922 → 0.848	-0.074	0.2169	0.2364n=543 Very good	0.1960n=669 Good	0.2142	+0.081	-0.086	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.906 at 0.612 share (log5 0.2142 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9408 at 0.388 share (log5 0.2225 vs pen 0.2037) = x0.9195 \| starter alone would have been -0.087
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.672 → 0.784	+0.112	0.2212	0.1534n=543 Good	0.2559n=669 Good	0.1799	-0.281	+0.144	-0.034 ok
		split	starter x1.173 at 0.612 share (log5 0.1799 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1549 at 0.388 share (log5 0.1772 vs pen 0.2523) = x1.166 \| starter alone would have been +0.116
		Walkswhole staff	0.321 → 0.226	-0.095	0.0889	0.1051n=543 Good	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0662	+0.067	-0.138	-0.023 ok
		split	starter x0.6302 at 0.612 share (log5 0.0662 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8231 at 0.388 share (log5 0.0865 vs pen 0.0730) = x0.705 \| starter alone would have been -0.119
		Home runswhole staff	0.132 → 0.118	-0.014	0.0304	0.0298n=543 Average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0242	-0.003	-0.024	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8132 at 0.612 share (log5 0.0242 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0231 at 0.388 share (log5 0.0305 vs pen 0.0311) = x0.8946 \| starter alone would have been -0.025
Jo Adell	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.859 → 0.788	-0.071	0.2169	0.2185n=656 Average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1975	+0.006	-0.083	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.904 at 0.612 share (log5 0.1975 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9395 at 0.388 share (log5 0.2052 vs pen 0.2037) = x0.9178 \| starter alone would have been -0.082
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.109 → 1.272	+0.163	0.2212	0.2367n=656 Average	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2730	+0.062	+0.138	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x1.1534 at 0.612 share (log5 0.2730 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1376 at 0.388 share (log5 0.2692 vs pen 0.2523) = x1.1473 \| starter alone would have been +0.170
		Walkswhole staff	0.174 → 0.121	-0.053	0.0889	0.0575n=656 Poor	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0356	-0.125	-0.133	+0.045 ok
		split	starter x0.6181 at 0.612 share (log5 0.0356 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8154 at 0.388 share (log5 0.0469 vs pen 0.0730) = x0.6946 \| starter alone would have been -0.067
		Home runswhole staff	0.148 → 0.132	-0.015	0.0304	0.0337n=656 Average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0274	+0.013	-0.023	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8138 at 0.612 share (log5 0.0274 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.023 at 0.388 share (log5 0.0345 vs pen 0.0311) = x0.8949 \| starter alone would have been -0.028
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.771 → 0.708	-0.063	0.2169	0.2187n=417 Average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1977	+0.007	-0.077	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9041 at 0.612 share (log5 0.1977 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9395 at 0.388 share (log5 0.2055 vs pen 0.2037) = x0.9178 \| starter alone would have been -0.074
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.910 → 1.045	+0.136	0.2212	0.2293n=417 Average	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2648	+0.030	+0.129	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.1551 at 0.612 share (log5 0.2648 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1391 at 0.388 share (log5 0.2612 vs pen 0.2523) = x1.1489 \| starter alone would have been +0.141
		Walkswhole staff	0.260 → 0.182	-0.077	0.0889	0.0906n=417 Average	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0568	+0.006	-0.123	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.6265 at 0.612 share (log5 0.0568 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8207 at 0.388 share (log5 0.0744 vs pen 0.0730) = x0.7018 \| starter alone would have been -0.097
		Home runswhole staff	0.141 → 0.126	-0.015	0.0304	0.0353n=417 Good	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0287	+0.018	-0.021	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8141 at 0.612 share (log5 0.0287 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0229 at 0.388 share (log5 0.0361 vs pen 0.0311) = x0.8951 \| starter alone would have been -0.026
Angel Martínez	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.808 → 0.743	-0.066	0.2169	0.2293n=408 Good	0.1960n=669 Good	0.2075	+0.048	-0.080	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9052 at 0.612 share (log5 0.2075 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9403 at 0.388 share (log5 0.2156 vs pen 0.2037) = x0.9188 \| starter alone would have been -0.077
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.004 → 1.156	+0.152	0.2212	0.2185n=408 Average	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2529	-0.011	+0.133	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.1576 at 0.612 share (log5 0.2529 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1413 at 0.388 share (log5 0.2493 vs pen 0.2523) = x1.1513 \| starter alone would have been +0.158
		Walkswhole staff	0.132 → 0.091	-0.041	0.0889	0.0429n=408 Poor	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0263	-0.176	-0.127	+0.064 ok
		split	starter x0.6144 at 0.612 share (log5 0.0263 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8131 at 0.388 share (log5 0.0348 vs pen 0.0730) = x0.6914 \| starter alone would have been -0.051
		Home runswhole staff	0.158 → 0.141	-0.017	0.0304	0.0387n=408 Good	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0315	+0.032	-0.022	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.8146 at 0.612 share (log5 0.0315 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0229 at 0.388 share (log5 0.0396 vs pen 0.0311) = x0.8954 \| starter alone would have been -0.029
Travis Bazzana	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.721 → 0.661	-0.060	0.2169	0.2129n=506 Average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1924	-0.015	-0.078	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9034 at 0.612 share (log5 0.1924 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9391 at 0.388 share (log5 0.2000 vs pen 0.2037) = x0.9172 \| starter alone would have been -0.070
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.837 → 0.966	+0.129	0.2212	0.2087n=506 Average	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2421	-0.047	+0.129	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.1599 at 0.612 share (log5 0.2421 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1433 at 0.388 share (log5 0.2386 vs pen 0.2523) = x1.1535 \| starter alone would have been +0.134
		Walkswhole staff	0.296 → 0.209	-0.088	0.0889	0.1033n=506 Good	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0651	+0.054	-0.124	-0.019 ok
		split	starter x0.6297 at 0.612 share (log5 0.0651 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8228 at 0.388 share (log5 0.0850 vs pen 0.0730) = x0.7046 \| starter alone would have been -0.110
		Home runswhole staff	0.115 → 0.103	-0.012	0.0304	0.0299n=506 Average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0243	-0.002	-0.021	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8132 at 0.612 share (log5 0.0243 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0231 at 0.388 share (log5 0.0306 vs pen 0.0311) = x0.8946 \| starter alone would have been -0.021
Patrick Bailey	C	Hitswhole staff	0.726 → 0.665	-0.060	0.2169	0.2062n=333 Below average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1862	-0.038	-0.074	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9027 at 0.612 share (log5 0.1862 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9386 at 0.388 share (log5 0.1936 vs pen 0.2037) = x0.9166 \| starter alone would have been -0.071
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.024 → 1.168	+0.144	0.2212	0.2666n=333 Below average	0.2559n=669 Good	0.3057	+0.162	+0.124	+0.015 ok
		split	starter x1.1465 at 0.612 share (log5 0.3057 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1315 at 0.388 share (log5 0.3017 vs pen 0.2523) = x1.1407 \| starter alone would have been +0.150
		Walkswhole staff	0.220 → 0.154	-0.066	0.0889	0.0809n=333 Average	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0505	-0.029	-0.119	+0.010 ok
		split	starter x0.624 at 0.612 share (log5 0.0505 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8192 at 0.388 share (log5 0.0663 vs pen 0.0730) = x0.6997 \| starter alone would have been -0.083
		Home runswhole staff	0.125 → 0.112	-0.013	0.0304	0.0302n=333 Average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0246	-0.001	-0.020	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8133 at 0.612 share (log5 0.0246 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0231 at 0.388 share (log5 0.0309 vs pen 0.0311) = x0.8946 \| starter alone would have been -0.023
Brayan Rocchio	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.705 → 0.648	-0.058	0.2169	0.2238n=576 Average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.2025	+0.024	-0.070	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9046 at 0.612 share (log5 0.2025 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9399 at 0.388 share (log5 0.2104 vs pen 0.2037) = x0.9183 \| starter alone would have been -0.067
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.562 → 0.656	+0.094	0.2212	0.1501n=576 Good	0.2559n=669 Good	0.1762	-0.240	+0.117	-0.029 ok
		split	starter x1.1738 at 0.612 share (log5 0.1762 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1556 at 0.388 share (log5 0.1735 vs pen 0.2523) = x1.1667 \| starter alone would have been +0.098
		Walkswhole staff	0.184 → 0.128	-0.056	0.0889	0.0699n=576 Below average	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0434	-0.064	-0.112	+0.023 ok
		split	starter x0.6212 at 0.612 share (log5 0.0434 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8174 at 0.388 share (log5 0.0571 vs pen 0.0730) = x0.6973 \| starter alone would have been -0.070
		Home runswhole staff	0.088 → 0.079	-0.009	0.0304	0.0250n=576 Below average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0203	-0.018	-0.019	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8125 at 0.612 share (log5 0.0203 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0232 at 0.388 share (log5 0.0256 vs pen 0.0311) = x0.8942 \| starter alone would have been -0.017
STARTER Foster Griffin21.9057 BF	Starter	Hits	5.968 → 6.311	+0.343	0.2169	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.22959/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2373	+0.165	+0.276	+0.007 ok
		Strikeouts	4.438 → 3.973	-0.465	0.2212	0.2193n=721 Average	0.19819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1963	-0.041	-0.507	+0.003 ok
		Walks	1.349 → 1.208	-0.141	0.0889	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.07989/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0601	-0.476	-0.200	+0.046 ok
		Home runs	0.280 → 0.267	-0.013	0.0304	0.0313n=721 Average	0.02909/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0299	+0.021	-0.031	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Joey Cantillo3.6815 BF	Long Reliever	Hits	0.716 → 0.758	+0.042	0.2169	0.2118n=687 Average	0.22959/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2242	-0.019	+0.046	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	2.074 → 1.863	-0.211	0.2212	0.2460n=687 Good	0.19819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2210	+0.091	-0.085	-0.007 ok
		Walks	0.704 → 0.634	-0.070	0.0889	0.1125n=687 Below average	0.07989/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1012	+0.087	-0.034	-0.008 ok
		Home runs	0.000 → 0.000	0	0.0304	0.0270n=687 Good	0.02909/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0257	-0.013	-0.005	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Hunter Gaddis2.1601 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.462 → 0.489	+0.027	0.2169	0.2138n=252 Average	0.22959/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2263	-0.006	+0.027	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.479 → 0.429	-0.050	0.2212	0.2220n=252 Average	0.19819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1988	+0.002	-0.050	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.190 → 0.171	-0.019	0.0889	0.0879n=252 Average	0.07989/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0789	-0.002	-0.020	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.064 → 0.061	-0.003	0.0304	0.0294n=252 Average	0.02909/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0281	-0.002	-0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Tim Herrin2.157 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.438 → 0.464	+0.026	0.2169	0.2029n=237 Good	0.22959/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2149	-0.030	+0.027	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.488 → 0.437	-0.051	0.2212	0.2262n=237 Average	0.19819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2026	+0.011	-0.050	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.230 → 0.206	-0.023	0.0889	0.1065n=237 Below average	0.07989/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0958	+0.038	-0.020	-0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.059 → 0.056	-0.003	0.0304	0.0272n=237 Average	0.02909/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0259	-0.007	-0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Erik Sabrowski2.137 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.389 → 0.412	+0.024	0.2169	0.1819n=194 Very good	0.22959/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1930	-0.075	+0.027	-0.003 ok
		Strikeouts	0.715 → 0.650	-0.065	0.2212	0.3346n=194 Very good	0.19819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3042	+0.242	-0.050	-0.015 ok
		Walks	0.274 → 0.247	-0.027	0.0889	0.1280n=194 Poor	0.07989/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1154	+0.084	-0.019	-0.007 ok
		Home runs	0.055 → 0.053	-0.003	0.0304	0.0259n=194 Good	0.02909/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0247	-0.010	-0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Shawn Armstrong1.8177 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.377 → 0.400	+0.022	0.2169	0.2076n=148 Average	0.22959/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2198	-0.017	+0.023	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.396 → 0.355	-0.042	0.2212	0.2180n=148 Average	0.19819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1951	-0.006	-0.042	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.190 → 0.171	-0.019	0.0889	0.1048n=148 Below average	0.07989/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0942	+0.029	-0.017	-0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.051 → 0.048	-0.002	0.0304	0.0279n=148 Average	0.02909/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0266	-0.005	-0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Cade Smith1.7993 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.344 → 0.364	+0.021	0.2169	0.1909n=281 Very good	0.22959/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2024	-0.047	+0.023	-0.002 ok
		Strikeouts	0.597 → 0.542	-0.054	0.2212	0.3315n=281 Very good	0.19819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3013	+0.199	-0.042	-0.013 ok
		Walks	0.140 → 0.125	-0.015	0.0889	0.0776n=281 Good	0.07989/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0695	-0.021	-0.016	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.046 → 0.044	-0.002	0.0304	0.0255n=281 Good	0.02909/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0243	-0.009	-0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Tanner Bibee1.6012 BF	Middle Reliever	Hits	0.944 → 0.998	+0.054	0.2169	0.2223n=780 Average	0.22959/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2351	+0.009	+0.020	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.967 → 0.863	-0.104	0.2212	0.1927n=780 Below average	0.19819/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1719	-0.046	-0.037	+0.004 ok
		Walks	0.570 → 0.511	-0.059	0.0889	0.0736n=780 Good	0.07989/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0660	-0.025	-0.015	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.141 → 0.135	-0.006	0.0304	0.0347n=780 Below average	0.02909/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0331	+0.007	-0.002	-0.000 ok

TB against Cole Sulser (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to TB hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 21.9057 of 37.258 projected batters (58.8%) and the 2 projected relievers for the remaining 41.2%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Yandy Díaz	DH	Hitswhole staff	1.139 → 1.136	-0.003	0.2169	0.2464n=678 Very good	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.2546	+0.129	+0.033	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.0333 at 0.588 share (log5 0.2546 vs his 0.2244) + bullpen x0.9465 at 0.412 share (log5 0.2332 vs pen 0.2048) = x0.9975 \| starter alone would have been +0.038
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.648 → 0.687	+0.040	0.2212	0.1455n=678 Very good	0.2193n=721 Average	0.1442	-0.330	-0.008	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9908 at 0.588 share (log5 0.1442 vs his 0.2193) + bullpen x1.1615 at 0.412 share (log5 0.1691 vs pen 0.2533) = x1.0611 \| starter alone would have been -0.006
		Walkswhole staff	0.305 → 0.279	-0.026	0.0889	0.0835n=678 Average	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.0630	-0.024	-0.095	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.7543 at 0.588 share (log5 0.0630 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.14 at 0.412 share (log5 0.0952 vs pen 0.1013) = x0.9132 \| starter alone would have been -0.075
		Home runswhole staff	0.150 → 0.147	-0.002	0.0304	0.0319n=678 Average	0.0313n=721 Average	0.0328	+0.006	+0.004	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0307 at 0.588 share (log5 0.0328 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x0.9195 at 0.412 share (log5 0.0293 vs pen 0.0279) = x0.9849 \| starter alone would have been +0.005
Jonathan Aranda	1B	Hitswhole staff	1.056 → 1.054	-0.003	0.2169	0.2302n=661 Good	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.2380	+0.055	+0.031	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0341 at 0.588 share (log5 0.2380 vs his 0.2244) + bullpen x0.9454 at 0.412 share (log5 0.2176 vs pen 0.2048) = x0.9975 \| starter alone would have been +0.036
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.047 → 1.103	+0.056	0.2212	0.2420n=661 Average	0.2193n=721 Average	0.2401	+0.086	-0.008	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9918 at 0.588 share (log5 0.2401 vs his 0.2193) + bullpen x1.1407 at 0.412 share (log5 0.2761 vs pen 0.2533) = x1.0532 \| starter alone would have been -0.009
		Walkswhole staff	0.294 → 0.269	-0.025	0.0889	0.1007n=661 Good	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.0763	+0.049	-0.090	-0.011 ok
		split	starter x0.7578 at 0.588 share (log5 0.0763 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.137 at 0.412 share (log5 0.1145 vs pen 0.1013) = x0.9141 \| starter alone would have been -0.071
		Home runswhole staff	0.145 → 0.143	-0.002	0.0304	0.0325n=661 Average	0.0313n=721 Average	0.0335	+0.009	+0.004	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0307 at 0.588 share (log5 0.0335 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x0.9195 at 0.412 share (log5 0.0298 vs pen 0.0279) = x0.9849 \| starter alone would have been +0.004
Junior Caminero	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.982 → 0.979	-0.002	0.2169	0.2330n=695 Good	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.2409	+0.065	+0.030	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0339 at 0.588 share (log5 0.2409 vs his 0.2244) + bullpen x0.9456 at 0.412 share (log5 0.2203 vs pen 0.2048) = x0.9975 \| starter alone would have been +0.033
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.728 → 0.770	+0.042	0.2212	0.1853n=695 Good	0.2193n=721 Average	0.1836	-0.145	-0.007	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9912 at 0.588 share (log5 0.1836 vs his 0.2193) + bullpen x1.1528 at 0.412 share (log5 0.2136 vs pen 0.2533) = x1.0578 \| starter alone would have been -0.006
		Walkswhole staff	0.367 → 0.336	-0.031	0.0889	0.1100n=695 Good	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.0836	+0.085	-0.088	-0.019 ok
		split	starter x0.7597 at 0.588 share (log5 0.0836 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.1354 at 0.412 share (log5 0.1249 vs pen 0.1013) = x0.9145 \| starter alone would have been -0.088
		Home runswhole staff	0.223 → 0.220	-0.003	0.0304	0.0522n=695 Very good	0.0313n=721 Average	0.0537	+0.088	+0.004	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.03 at 0.588 share (log5 0.0537 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x0.921 at 0.412 share (log5 0.0480 vs pen 0.0279) = x0.9851 \| starter alone would have been +0.007
Ryan Vilade	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.882 → 0.880	-0.002	0.2169	0.2163n=274 Average	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.2238	-0.002	+0.028	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0347 at 0.588 share (log5 0.2238 vs his 0.2244) + bullpen x0.9445 at 0.412 share (log5 0.2043 vs pen 0.2048) = x0.9975 \| starter alone would have been +0.031
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.880 → 0.927	+0.047	0.2212	0.2348n=274 Average	0.2193n=721 Average	0.2329	+0.051	-0.007	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9917 at 0.588 share (log5 0.2329 vs his 0.2193) + bullpen x1.1422 at 0.412 share (log5 0.2682 vs pen 0.2533) = x1.0537 \| starter alone would have been -0.007
		Walkswhole staff	0.279 → 0.255	-0.024	0.0889	0.0931n=274 Average	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.0704	+0.016	-0.082	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.7562 at 0.588 share (log5 0.0704 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.1383 at 0.412 share (log5 0.1060 vs pen 0.1013) = x0.9137 \| starter alone would have been -0.068
		Home runswhole staff	0.154 → 0.152	-0.002	0.0304	0.0354n=274 Good	0.0313n=721 Average	0.0364	+0.019	+0.004	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0306 at 0.588 share (log5 0.0364 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x0.9197 at 0.412 share (log5 0.0325 vs pen 0.0279) = x0.9849 \| starter alone would have been +0.005
Jonny DeLuca	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.992 → 0.990	-0.002	0.2169	0.2346n=363 Good	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.2426	+0.069	+0.029	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0339 at 0.588 share (log5 0.2426 vs his 0.2244) + bullpen x0.9457 at 0.412 share (log5 0.2219 vs pen 0.2048) = x0.9976 \| starter alone would have been +0.034
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.841 → 0.887	+0.047	0.2212	0.2132n=363 Average	0.2193n=721 Average	0.2114	-0.031	-0.007	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9915 at 0.588 share (log5 0.2114 vs his 0.2193) + bullpen x1.1468 at 0.412 share (log5 0.2445 vs pen 0.2533) = x1.0555 \| starter alone would have been -0.007
		Walkswhole staff	0.188 → 0.171	-0.017	0.0889	0.0572n=363 Poor	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.0429	-0.123	-0.084	+0.029 ok
		split	starter x0.749 at 0.588 share (log5 0.0429 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.1446 at 0.412 share (log5 0.0655 vs pen 0.1013) = x0.912 \| starter alone would have been -0.047
		Home runswhole staff	0.130 → 0.128	-0.002	0.0304	0.0303n=363 Average	0.0313n=721 Average	0.0313	-0.000	+0.004	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0307 at 0.588 share (log5 0.0313 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x0.9193 at 0.412 share (log5 0.0279 vs pen 0.0279) = x0.9848 \| starter alone would have been +0.004
Chandler Simpson	LF	Hitswhole staff	1.132 → 1.129	-0.003	0.2169	0.2576n=606 Very good	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.2660	+0.158	+0.029	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0328 at 0.588 share (log5 0.2660 vs his 0.2244) + bullpen x0.9472 at 0.412 share (log5 0.2440 vs pen 0.2048) = x0.9975 \| starter alone would have been +0.037
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.392 → 0.418	+0.026	0.2212	0.0898n=606 Very good	0.2193n=721 Average	0.0889	-0.511	-0.007	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9902 at 0.588 share (log5 0.0889 vs his 0.2193) + bullpen x1.1739 at 0.412 share (log5 0.1054 vs pen 0.2533) = x1.0659 \| starter alone would have been -0.004
		Walkswhole staff	0.141 → 0.129	-0.013	0.0889	0.0505n=606 Poor	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.0377	-0.150	-0.085	+0.035 ok
		split	starter x0.7476 at 0.588 share (log5 0.0377 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.1458 at 0.412 share (log5 0.0578 vs pen 0.1013) = x0.9117 \| starter alone would have been -0.036
		Home runswhole staff	0.039 → 0.038	-0.001	0.0304	0.0092n=606 Poor	0.0313n=721 Average	0.0095	-0.082	+0.004	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.0314 at 0.588 share (log5 0.0095 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x0.9177 at 0.412 share (log5 0.0085 vs pen 0.0279) = x0.9845 \| starter alone would have been +0.001
Nick Fortes	C	Hitswhole staff	0.822 → 0.820	-0.002	0.2169	0.2269n=320 Good	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.2346	+0.033	+0.025	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0342 at 0.588 share (log5 0.2346 vs his 0.2244) + bullpen x0.9452 at 0.412 share (log5 0.2144 vs pen 0.2048) = x0.9975 \| starter alone would have been +0.028
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.515 → 0.546	+0.031	0.2212	0.1513n=320 Good	0.2193n=721 Average	0.1499	-0.229	-0.006	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9908 at 0.588 share (log5 0.1499 vs his 0.2193) + bullpen x1.1602 at 0.412 share (log5 0.1755 vs pen 0.2533) = x1.0606 \| starter alone would have been -0.005
		Walkswhole staff	0.147 → 0.134	-0.013	0.0889	0.0514n=320 Poor	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.0385	-0.123	-0.071	+0.029 ok
		split	starter x0.7478 at 0.588 share (log5 0.0385 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.1456 at 0.412 share (log5 0.0589 vs pen 0.1013) = x0.9117 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Home runswhole staff	0.089 → 0.088	-0.001	0.0304	0.0240n=320 Below average	0.0313n=721 Average	0.0248	-0.021	+0.003	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0309 at 0.588 share (log5 0.0248 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x0.9189 at 0.412 share (log5 0.0221 vs pen 0.0279) = x0.9847 \| starter alone would have been +0.003
Jorge Mateo	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.781 → 0.779	-0.002	0.2169	0.2085n=219 Below average	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.2158	-0.028	+0.025	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0351 at 0.588 share (log5 0.2158 vs his 0.2244) + bullpen x0.9439 at 0.412 share (log5 0.1968 vs pen 0.2048) = x0.9975 \| starter alone would have been +0.027
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.016 → 1.066	+0.050	0.2212	0.2943n=219 Below average	0.2193n=721 Average	0.2920	+0.247	-0.006	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9924 at 0.588 share (log5 0.2920 vs his 0.2193) + bullpen x1.1297 at 0.412 share (log5 0.3324 vs pen 0.2533) = x1.049 \| starter alone would have been -0.008
		Walkswhole staff	0.177 → 0.161	-0.015	0.0889	0.0639n=219 Below average	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.0479	-0.085	-0.074	+0.020 ok
		split	starter x0.7503 at 0.588 share (log5 0.0479 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.1434 at 0.412 share (log5 0.0730 vs pen 0.1013) = x0.9123 \| starter alone would have been -0.044
		Home runswhole staff	0.102 → 0.100	-0.002	0.0304	0.0270n=219 Average	0.0313n=721 Average	0.0278	-0.012	+0.003	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0308 at 0.588 share (log5 0.0278 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x0.9191 at 0.412 share (log5 0.0248 vs pen 0.0279) = x0.9848 \| starter alone would have been +0.003
Taylor Walls	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.751 → 0.749	-0.002	0.2169	0.2028n=430 Below average	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.2099	-0.048	+0.026	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0353 at 0.588 share (log5 0.2099 vs his 0.2244) + bullpen x0.9436 at 0.412 share (log5 0.1913 vs pen 0.2048) = x0.9975 \| starter alone would have been +0.026
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.828 → 0.872	+0.044	0.2212	0.2418n=430 Average	0.2193n=721 Average	0.2399	+0.071	-0.006	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9918 at 0.588 share (log5 0.2399 vs his 0.2193) + bullpen x1.1407 at 0.412 share (log5 0.2759 vs pen 0.2533) = x1.0532 \| starter alone would have been -0.007
		Walkswhole staff	0.289 → 0.264	-0.025	0.0889	0.1012n=430 Good	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.0767	+0.042	-0.075	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.7579 at 0.588 share (log5 0.0767 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.1369 at 0.412 share (log5 0.1151 vs pen 0.1013) = x0.9141 \| starter alone would have been -0.070
		Home runswhole staff	0.053 → 0.052	-0.001	0.0304	0.0144n=430 Poor	0.0313n=721 Average	0.0149	-0.055	+0.003	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0313 at 0.588 share (log5 0.0149 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x0.9181 at 0.412 share (log5 0.0133 vs pen 0.0279) = x0.9847 \| starter alone would have been +0.002
STARTER Drew Rasmussen21.8189 BF	Starter	Hits	3.260 → 3.320	+0.060	0.2169	0.1960n=669 Good	0.22079/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1996	-0.455	+0.084	-0.006 ok
		Strikeouts	5.640 → 4.799	-0.841	0.2212	0.2559n=669 Good	0.18699/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2178	+0.758	-0.748	-0.085 ok
		Walks	1.135 → 1.129	-0.006	0.0889	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.08859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0554	-0.726	-0.010	+0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.272 → 0.257	-0.015	0.0304	0.0247n=669 Good	0.02879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0233	-0.124	-0.037	+0.007 ok
RELIEVER Griffin Jax3.2173 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.675 → 0.687	+0.012	0.2169	0.2098n=434 Average	0.22079/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2136	-0.023	+0.012	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.799 → 0.679	-0.120	0.2212	0.2484n=434 Good	0.18699/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2111	+0.088	-0.110	-0.010 ok
		Walks	0.261 → 0.260	-0.001	0.0889	0.0812n=434 Average	0.08859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0808	-0.025	-0.001	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.101 → 0.095	-0.006	0.0304	0.0313n=434 Average	0.02879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0296	+0.003	-0.005	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Ian Seymour2.8941 BF	Long Reliever	Hits	1.326 → 1.350	+0.024	0.2169	0.2104n=551 Average	0.22079/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2141	-0.019	+0.011	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.951 → 1.668	-0.283	0.2212	0.2784n=551 Very good	0.18699/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2380	+0.166	-0.099	-0.018 ok
		Walks	0.433 → 0.430	-0.002	0.0889	0.0706n=551 Good	0.08859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0702	-0.053	-0.001	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.225 → 0.213	-0.012	0.0304	0.0387n=551 Poor	0.02879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0365	+0.024	-0.005	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Kevin Kelly2.644 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.548 → 0.558	+0.010	0.2169	0.2073n=279 Average	0.22079/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2110	-0.025	+0.010	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.594 → 0.502	-0.092	0.2212	0.2248n=279 Average	0.18699/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1901	+0.009	-0.091	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.151 → 0.151	-0.001	0.0889	0.0573n=279 Very good	0.08859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0570	-0.084	-0.001	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.071 → 0.067	-0.004	0.0304	0.0270n=279 Good	0.02879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0255	-0.009	-0.004	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Cam Booser2.2627 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.352 → 0.358	+0.006	0.2169	0.1990n=152 Good	0.22079/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2027	-0.040	+0.009	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.651 → 0.556	-0.096	0.2212	0.2702n=152 Good	0.18699/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2306	+0.111	-0.078	-0.012 ok
		Walks	0.120 → 0.120	-0.001	0.0889	0.0646n=152 Very good	0.08859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0643	-0.055	-0.001	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.064 → 0.060	-0.004	0.0304	0.0310n=152 Average	0.02879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0293	+0.001	-0.004	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Bryan Baker2.2586 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.415 → 0.422	+0.008	0.2169	0.1836n=244 Very good	0.22079/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1870	-0.075	+0.009	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.562 → 0.478	-0.085	0.2212	0.2490n=244 Good	0.18699/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2116	+0.063	-0.077	-0.007 ok
		Walks	0.203 → 0.202	-0.001	0.0889	0.0897n=244 Average	0.08859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0892	+0.002	-0.001	0 ok
		Home runs	0.058 → 0.054	-0.003	0.0304	0.0254n=244 Good	0.02879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0240	-0.011	-0.004	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Steven Matz0.2721 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.059 → 0.060	+0.001	0.2169	0.2166n=342 Average	0.22079/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2205	-0.000	+0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.051 → 0.043	-0.008	0.2212	0.1865n=342 Below average	0.18699/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1565	-0.009	-0.009	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.021 → 0.021	-0.000	0.0889	0.0781n=342 Good	0.08859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0777	-0.003	-0.000	0 ok
		Home runs	0.010 → 0.009	-0.001	0.0304	0.0362n=342 Poor	0.02879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0342	+0.002	-0.001	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Cole Sulser0.2652 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.058 → 0.059	+0.001	0.2169	0.2203n=236 Average	0.22079/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2242	+0.001	+0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.062 → 0.052	-0.009	0.2212	0.2332n=236 Average	0.18699/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1975	+0.003	-0.009	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.021 → 0.021	-0.000	0.0889	0.0788n=236 Good	0.08859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0784	-0.003	-0.000	0 ok
		Home runs	0.008 → 0.007	-0.000	0.0304	0.0301n=236 Average	0.02879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0285	-0.000	-0.000	0 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Foster Griffin	Starter	21.9	5.0	4.863	10 / 5.968	2 / 4.438	1 / 1.349	5 / 2.711	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Joey Cantillo	Long Reliever	7.4	2.0	2.003	1 / 0.716	1 / 2.074	0 / 0.704	0 / 0.118	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Tanner Bibee	Middle Reliever	4.5	1.0	1.001	0 / 0.944	2 / 0.967	0 / 0.570	0 / 0.703	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Drew Rasmussen	Starter	21.8	5.2	5.808	7 / 3.260	5 / 5.640	2 / 1.135	3 / 0.924	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Ian Seymour	Long Reliever	7.8	2.0	2.014	2 / 1.326	2 / 1.951	1 / 0.433	1 / 0.592	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.5	1.1	0.672	0 / 0.352	0 / 0.651	0 / 0.120	0 / 0.116	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity136 checks	PASS	136 of 136 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 3
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	24 outs recorded, 24 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 4.863
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Foster Griffin projected 21.9 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band2 checks	PASS	2 of 2 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 3
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.808
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Drew Rasmussen projected 21.8 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band2 checks	PASS	2 of 2 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

Provenance. Read only from published artifacts and stored KPI value documents. Nothing is recomputed, so this document cannot disagree with what was published. Per-player metric adjustments are a measurement of the catalog at player level and are labelled as such throughout; the pipeline itself moved team runs, the win probability, and hitter lines by one club-wide ratio.