MLB Prediction System

Metric Evolution & Audit

Every number that moved, the stage that moved it, the input it used, and the arithmetic that proves it

Slate 20261012Games 2Checks 301Schema metric_evolution_report_v1Built 2026-10-12 18:42Z

Verdict across the slate

301 invariants checked across 2 games: 2 OF 301 CHECKS FAILED

away staff totals a regulation workload: 28 outs recorded, 24 expected
home staff totals a regulation workload: 30 outs recorded, 27 expected

How to read this, and what a defect looks like

Every figure below is shown with the arithmetic that produced it and a verdict beside it, so a disagreement can be pointed at a specific line rather than at the system as a whole.

Stage chain. Each game lists every stage that touched the score, the score after it, and whether it changed the target. Most stages move nothing on most games; a chain that showed only movement would misrepresent it. A stage reporting a delta while changed_target is false computed an adjustment and did not apply it, which is normal and is stated.
Blend arithmetic. The KPI blend must satisfy blended = baseline + weight x (kpi_only - baseline) for all three targets. A FAIL here means the layer reported a number it did not compute.
Rounding. Published integers must be the rounding of the blended runs under the documented tie rule. A FAIL means the published score and the continuous line describe different games.
Log5 additivity. For every player metric, own skill plus opponent plus the Log5 remainder must equal the total against the league, exactly. A FAIL means the decomposition is not a decomposition.
Direction. A green delta helps the subject, a red one hurts him. Strikeouts invert for a hitter. If an elite arm's opponent shows green strikeouts, the orientation is wrong and the whole player section is suspect.
Measured versus published. The KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The per-player metric adjustments here are a measurement of the same catalog at player level, not what the pipeline published; the one club-wide ratio the pipeline actually applied to hitter lines is printed beside them.
Integer versus continuous. The integer player line is a simulation draw reconciled to the box score. The continuous expected_* beside it is the model's own view and is the rankable quantity. Judging the model by the integer is how a working model looks broken.

Slate overview

Game	Published	p(home)	Stages	Stages that moved it	KPI applied	Δ away runs	Δ home runs	Simulation draw chosen on	0-out starter
20261012_CLE@TB	4 - 5	0.5788	8	1	no	+0.7773	+0.0862	-	no
20261012_LAD@MIL	4 - 3	0.4950	8	2	no	-0.1477	+0.2629	-	no

KPI model in force. candidate 20261012T091527Z_e6f3fdba, 48 features built from 40 registered KPIs, blend weights {"home_runs": 0.38, "away_runs": 0.34, "home_win": 0.0}, frozen evaluation ends 2026-09-27. A target whose weight is zero contributes nothing by construction: the winner probability carries weight zero while its walk-forward verdict is inconclusive, so every win-probability movement below is expected to be exactly zero.

Per game

20261012_CLE@TB — published 4-5, 149 checks, 2 failed

Artifact. 20261012_CLE@TB.json, phase pregame, generated 2026-10-12T18:39:57, first pitch 2026-10-13T00:00:00.
Published 4 - 5 with p(home) 0.578790. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; ? of ? draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	4.05765736661641 - 5.326015945945228	0	0	0	0	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 5	-0.0577	-0.3260	-0.0577	-0.3260	yes	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	4 - 5	0	0	-0.0577	-0.3260	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
4. `kpi_layer`	4.0 - 5.0	0	0	-0.0577	-0.3260	no	away +0.7773; home +0.0862 Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept
5. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 5	0	0	-0.0577	-0.3260	no	away -0.3590; home +0.0239 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 5	0	0	-0.0577	-0.3260	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
7. `capped_target`	4 - 5	0	0	-0.0577	-0.3260	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8. `simulation_result`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

A stage reporting its own adjustment while Changed target reads no computed a movement that a later reconciliation absorbed, or that rounded away at the integer score. That is recorded rather than hidden.

KPI layer withheld. values_fresh. The published score is the pre-KPI baseline.

Per-player metric movement

CLE against Daniel Espino (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CLE hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 22.7563 of 35.626 projected batters (63.9%) and the 2 projected relievers for the remaining 36.1%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Steven Kwan	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.957 → 0.879	-0.078	0.2169	0.2296n=620 Good	0.1960n=669 Good	0.2079	+0.054	-0.088	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9053 at 0.639 share (log5 0.2079 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9408 at 0.361 share (log5 0.2161 vs pen 0.2038) = x0.9181 \| starter alone would have been -0.091
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.431 → 0.509	+0.077	0.2212	0.1013n=620 Very good	0.2559n=669 Good	0.1202	-0.507	+0.147	-0.067 ok
		split	starter x1.1856 at 0.639 share (log5 0.1202 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1688 at 0.361 share (log5 0.1184 vs pen 0.2529) = x1.1795 \| starter alone would have been +0.080
		Walkswhole staff	0.370 → 0.261	-0.109	0.0889	0.1280n=620 Very good	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0814	+0.165	-0.141	-0.056 ok
		split	starter x0.6362 at 0.639 share (log5 0.0814 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8286 at 0.361 share (log5 0.1060 vs pen 0.0731) = x0.7057 \| starter alone would have been -0.135
		Home runswhole staff	0.051 → 0.045	-0.006	0.0304	0.0125n=620 Poor	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0101	-0.076	-0.024	+0.014 ok
		split	starter x0.8105 at 0.639 share (log5 0.0101 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0274 at 0.361 share (log5 0.0128 vs pen 0.0312) = x0.8888 \| starter alone would have been -0.010
José Ramírez	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.830 → 0.760	-0.070	0.2169	0.2095n=531 Below average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1892	-0.032	-0.091	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.903 at 0.639 share (log5 0.1892 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9394 at 0.361 share (log5 0.1968 vs pen 0.2038) = x0.9161 \| starter alone would have been -0.081
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.680 → 0.796	+0.116	0.2212	0.1376n=531 Very good	0.2559n=669 Good	0.1619	-0.363	+0.151	-0.045 ok
		split	starter x1.1768 at 0.639 share (log5 0.1619 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1609 at 0.361 share (log5 0.1597 vs pen 0.2529) = x1.1711 \| starter alone would have been +0.120
		Walkswhole staff	0.360 → 0.253	-0.108	0.0889	0.1086n=531 Good	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0685	+0.085	-0.144	-0.029 ok
		split	starter x0.6311 at 0.639 share (log5 0.0685 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8255 at 0.361 share (log5 0.0896 vs pen 0.0731) = x0.7013 \| starter alone would have been -0.133
		Home runswhole staff	0.119 → 0.106	-0.013	0.0304	0.0252n=531 Below average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0205	-0.023	-0.025	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8125 at 0.639 share (log5 0.0205 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.027 at 0.361 share (log5 0.0259 vs pen 0.0312) = x0.89 \| starter alone would have been -0.022
Chase DeLauter	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.909 → 0.835	-0.074	0.2169	0.2364n=543 Very good	0.1960n=669 Good	0.2142	+0.082	-0.087	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.906 at 0.639 share (log5 0.2142 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9413 at 0.361 share (log5 0.2226 vs pen 0.2038) = x0.9188 \| starter alone would have been -0.085
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.672 → 0.785	+0.113	0.2212	0.1534n=543 Good	0.2559n=669 Good	0.1799	-0.283	+0.145	-0.034 ok
		split	starter x1.173 at 0.639 share (log5 0.1799 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1575 at 0.361 share (log5 0.1776 vs pen 0.2529) = x1.1674 \| starter alone would have been +0.116
		Walkswhole staff	0.362 → 0.254	-0.109	0.0889	0.1051n=543 Good	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0662	+0.068	-0.139	-0.024 ok
		split	starter x0.6302 at 0.639 share (log5 0.0662 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8249 at 0.361 share (log5 0.0867 vs pen 0.0731) = x0.7005 \| starter alone would have been -0.134
		Home runswhole staff	0.124 → 0.111	-0.014	0.0304	0.0298n=543 Average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0242	-0.003	-0.024	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8132 at 0.639 share (log5 0.0242 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0269 at 0.361 share (log5 0.0306 vs pen 0.0312) = x0.8904 \| starter alone would have been -0.023
Jo Adell	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.816 → 0.749	-0.068	0.2169	0.2185n=656 Average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1975	+0.006	-0.085	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.904 at 0.639 share (log5 0.1975 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.94 at 0.361 share (log5 0.2053 vs pen 0.2038) = x0.917 \| starter alone would have been -0.078
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.109 → 1.274	+0.165	0.2212	0.2367n=656 Average	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2730	+0.063	+0.141	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x1.1534 at 0.639 share (log5 0.2730 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1398 at 0.361 share (log5 0.2697 vs pen 0.2529) = x1.1485 \| starter alone would have been +0.170
		Walkswhole staff	0.265 → 0.183	-0.082	0.0889	0.0575n=656 Poor	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0356	-0.128	-0.136	+0.046 ok
		split	starter x0.6181 at 0.639 share (log5 0.0356 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8173 at 0.361 share (log5 0.0470 vs pen 0.0731) = x0.6901 \| starter alone would have been -0.101
		Home runswhole staff	0.141 → 0.126	-0.015	0.0304	0.0337n=656 Average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0274	+0.014	-0.023	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8138 at 0.639 share (log5 0.0274 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0268 at 0.361 share (log5 0.0346 vs pen 0.0312) = x0.8907 \| starter alone would have been -0.026
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.761 → 0.698	-0.063	0.2169	0.2187n=417 Average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1977	+0.007	-0.077	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9041 at 0.639 share (log5 0.1977 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.94 at 0.361 share (log5 0.2056 vs pen 0.2038) = x0.9171 \| starter alone would have been -0.073
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.910 → 1.046	+0.137	0.2212	0.2293n=417 Average	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2648	+0.030	+0.129	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.1551 at 0.639 share (log5 0.2648 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1414 at 0.361 share (log5 0.2617 vs pen 0.2529) = x1.1502 \| starter alone would have been +0.141
		Walkswhole staff	0.275 → 0.192	-0.083	0.0889	0.0906n=417 Average	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0568	+0.006	-0.124	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.6265 at 0.639 share (log5 0.0568 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8226 at 0.361 share (log5 0.0746 vs pen 0.0731) = x0.6973 \| starter alone would have been -0.103
		Home runswhole staff	0.137 → 0.122	-0.015	0.0304	0.0353n=417 Good	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0287	+0.018	-0.021	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8141 at 0.639 share (log5 0.0287 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0267 at 0.361 share (log5 0.0362 vs pen 0.0312) = x0.8909 \| starter alone would have been -0.025
Angel Martínez	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.808 → 0.742	-0.066	0.2169	0.2293n=408 Good	0.1960n=669 Good	0.2075	+0.048	-0.080	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9052 at 0.639 share (log5 0.2075 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9408 at 0.361 share (log5 0.2157 vs pen 0.2038) = x0.9181 \| starter alone would have been -0.077
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.004 → 1.158	+0.153	0.2212	0.2185n=408 Average	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2529	-0.011	+0.133	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.1576 at 0.639 share (log5 0.2529 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1436 at 0.361 share (log5 0.2498 vs pen 0.2529) = x1.1525 \| starter alone would have been +0.158
		Walkswhole staff	0.132 → 0.091	-0.041	0.0889	0.0429n=408 Poor	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0263	-0.176	-0.127	+0.064 ok
		split	starter x0.6144 at 0.639 share (log5 0.0263 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.815 at 0.361 share (log5 0.0349 vs pen 0.0731) = x0.6869 \| starter alone would have been -0.051
		Home runswhole staff	0.158 → 0.141	-0.017	0.0304	0.0387n=408 Good	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0315	+0.032	-0.022	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.8146 at 0.639 share (log5 0.0315 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0266 at 0.361 share (log5 0.0398 vs pen 0.0312) = x0.8912 \| starter alone would have been -0.029
Travis Bazzana	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.728 → 0.667	-0.061	0.2169	0.2129n=506 Average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1924	-0.015	-0.077	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9034 at 0.639 share (log5 0.1924 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9396 at 0.361 share (log5 0.2001 vs pen 0.2038) = x0.9165 \| starter alone would have been -0.070
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.837 → 0.967	+0.130	0.2212	0.2087n=506 Average	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2421	-0.046	+0.129	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.1599 at 0.639 share (log5 0.2421 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1457 at 0.361 share (log5 0.2391 vs pen 0.2529) = x1.1548 \| starter alone would have been +0.134
		Walkswhole staff	0.284 → 0.199	-0.085	0.0889	0.1033n=506 Good	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0651	+0.053	-0.123	-0.019 ok
		split	starter x0.6297 at 0.639 share (log5 0.0651 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8246 at 0.361 share (log5 0.0852 vs pen 0.0731) = x0.7001 \| starter alone would have been -0.105
		Home runswhole staff	0.111 → 0.099	-0.012	0.0304	0.0299n=506 Average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0243	-0.002	-0.021	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8132 at 0.639 share (log5 0.0243 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0269 at 0.361 share (log5 0.0307 vs pen 0.0312) = x0.8904 \| starter alone would have been -0.021
Patrick Bailey	C	Hitswhole staff	0.661 → 0.605	-0.056	0.2169	0.2062n=333 Below average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1862	-0.038	-0.075	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9027 at 0.639 share (log5 0.1862 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9391 at 0.361 share (log5 0.1937 vs pen 0.2038) = x0.9158 \| starter alone would have been -0.064
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.024 → 1.169	+0.145	0.2212	0.2666n=333 Below average	0.2559n=669 Good	0.3057	+0.164	+0.125	+0.016 ok
		split	starter x1.1465 at 0.639 share (log5 0.3057 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1336 at 0.361 share (log5 0.3023 vs pen 0.2529) = x1.1418 \| starter alone would have been +0.150
		Walkswhole staff	0.252 → 0.175	-0.077	0.0889	0.0809n=333 Average	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0505	-0.029	-0.120	+0.010 ok
		split	starter x0.624 at 0.639 share (log5 0.0505 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.821 at 0.361 share (log5 0.0665 vs pen 0.0731) = x0.6952 \| starter alone would have been -0.095
		Home runswhole staff	0.120 → 0.107	-0.013	0.0304	0.0302n=333 Average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0246	-0.001	-0.021	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8133 at 0.639 share (log5 0.0246 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0269 at 0.361 share (log5 0.0310 vs pen 0.0312) = x0.8905 \| starter alone would have been -0.022
Brayan Rocchio	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.693 → 0.636	-0.057	0.2169	0.2238n=576 Average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.2025	+0.024	-0.071	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9046 at 0.639 share (log5 0.2025 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9404 at 0.361 share (log5 0.2105 vs pen 0.2038) = x0.9175 \| starter alone would have been -0.066
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.562 → 0.657	+0.095	0.2212	0.1501n=576 Good	0.2559n=669 Good	0.1762	-0.243	+0.119	-0.029 ok
		split	starter x1.1738 at 0.639 share (log5 0.1762 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1582 at 0.361 share (log5 0.1738 vs pen 0.2529) = x1.1682 \| starter alone would have been +0.098
		Walkswhole staff	0.226 → 0.157	-0.070	0.0889	0.0699n=576 Below average	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0434	-0.065	-0.114	+0.023 ok
		split	starter x0.6212 at 0.639 share (log5 0.0434 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8193 at 0.361 share (log5 0.0573 vs pen 0.0731) = x0.6928 \| starter alone would have been -0.086
		Home runswhole staff	0.085 → 0.076	-0.009	0.0304	0.0250n=576 Below average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0203	-0.018	-0.019	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8125 at 0.639 share (log5 0.0203 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.027 at 0.361 share (log5 0.0257 vs pen 0.0312) = x0.89 \| starter alone would have been -0.016
STARTER Foster Griffin20.3406 BF	Starter	Hits	5.063 → 5.353	+0.290	0.2169	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.22949/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2373	+0.153	+0.256	+0.006 ok
		Strikeouts	3.982 → 3.567	-0.415	0.2212	0.2193n=721 Average	0.19829/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1965	-0.038	-0.468	+0.003 ok
		Walks	1.309 → 1.173	-0.135	0.0889	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.07999/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0602	-0.443	-0.183	+0.042 ok
		Home runs	0.280 → 0.267	-0.013	0.0304	0.0313n=721 Average	0.02909/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0299	+0.019	-0.028	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Joey Cantillo4.4423 BF	Long Reliever	Hits	0.716 → 0.758	+0.042	0.2169	0.2118n=687 Average	0.22949/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2241	-0.023	+0.056	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	2.074 → 1.864	-0.209	0.2212	0.2460n=687 Good	0.19829/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2212	+0.110	-0.102	-0.008 ok
		Walks	0.704 → 0.634	-0.070	0.0889	0.1125n=687 Below average	0.07999/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1014	+0.105	-0.040	-0.009 ok
		Home runs	0.000 → 0.000	0	0.0304	0.0270n=687 Good	0.02909/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0257	-0.015	-0.006	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Tim Herrin2.4449 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.496 → 0.525	+0.029	0.2169	0.2029n=237 Good	0.22949/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2149	-0.034	+0.031	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.553 → 0.496	-0.057	0.2212	0.2262n=237 Average	0.19829/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2028	+0.012	-0.056	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.260 → 0.234	-0.026	0.0889	0.1065n=237 Below average	0.07999/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0959	+0.043	-0.022	-0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.066 → 0.063	-0.003	0.0304	0.0272n=237 Average	0.02909/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0259	-0.008	-0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Erik Sabrowski2.2169 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.403 → 0.428	+0.025	0.2169	0.1819n=194 Very good	0.22949/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1930	-0.077	+0.028	-0.003 ok
		Strikeouts	0.742 → 0.675	-0.067	0.2212	0.3346n=194 Very good	0.19829/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3044	+0.251	-0.051	-0.016 ok
		Walks	0.284 → 0.256	-0.028	0.0889	0.1280n=194 Poor	0.07999/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1156	+0.087	-0.020	-0.008 ok
		Home runs	0.057 → 0.055	-0.003	0.0304	0.0259n=194 Good	0.02909/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0247	-0.010	-0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Shawn Armstrong2.1122 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.439 → 0.464	+0.026	0.2169	0.2076n=148 Average	0.22949/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2198	-0.020	+0.027	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.460 → 0.412	-0.048	0.2212	0.2180n=148 Average	0.19829/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1952	-0.007	-0.049	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.221 → 0.199	-0.022	0.0889	0.1048n=148 Below average	0.07999/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0943	+0.033	-0.019	-0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.059 → 0.056	-0.003	0.0304	0.0279n=148 Average	0.02909/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0266	-0.005	-0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Tanner Bibee1.9924 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.443 → 0.468	+0.025	0.2169	0.2223n=780 Average	0.22949/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2351	+0.011	+0.025	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.384 → 0.343	-0.041	0.2212	0.1927n=780 Below average	0.19829/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1720	-0.057	-0.046	+0.005 ok
		Walks	0.147 → 0.132	-0.015	0.0889	0.0736n=780 Good	0.07999/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0660	-0.030	-0.018	+0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.069 → 0.066	-0.003	0.0304	0.0347n=780 Below average	0.02909/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0331	+0.009	-0.003	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Hunter Gaddis1.962 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.420 → 0.444	+0.024	0.2169	0.2138n=252 Average	0.22949/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2263	-0.006	+0.025	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.435 → 0.390	-0.045	0.2212	0.2220n=252 Average	0.19829/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1989	+0.002	-0.045	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.172 → 0.155	-0.018	0.0889	0.0879n=252 Average	0.07999/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0790	-0.002	-0.018	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.058 → 0.055	-0.003	0.0304	0.0294n=252 Average	0.02909/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0281	-0.002	-0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Daniel Espino1.7138 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.372 → 0.393	+0.021	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22949/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2294	0	+0.021	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.379 → 0.340	-0.039	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.19829/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1982	0	-0.039	0 ok
		Walks	0.152 → 0.137	-0.015	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.07999/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0799	0	-0.015	0 ok
		Home runs	0.052 → 0.050	-0.002	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.02909/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0290	0	-0.002	0 ok

TB against Cole Sulser (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to TB hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 20.3406 of 37.225 projected batters (54.6%) and the 1 projected relievers for the remaining 45.4%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Yandy Díaz	DH	Hitswhole staff	1.139 → 1.139	+0.001	0.2169	0.2464n=678 Very good	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.2546	+0.129	+0.033	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.0333 at 0.546 share (log5 0.2546 vs his 0.2244) + bullpen x0.9608 at 0.454 share (log5 0.2367 vs pen 0.2081) = x1.0004 \| starter alone would have been +0.038
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.648 → 0.671	+0.024	0.2212	0.1455n=678 Very good	0.2193n=721 Average	0.1442	-0.330	-0.008	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9908 at 0.546 share (log5 0.1442 vs his 0.2193) + bullpen x1.0922 at 0.454 share (log5 0.1590 vs pen 0.2397) = x1.0368 \| starter alone would have been -0.006
		Walkswhole staff	0.305 → 0.286	-0.019	0.0889	0.0835n=678 Average	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.0630	-0.024	-0.095	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.7543 at 0.546 share (log5 0.0630 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.1578 at 0.454 share (log5 0.0967 vs pen 0.1029) = x0.9373 \| starter alone would have been -0.075
		Home runswhole staff	0.150 → 0.148	-0.002	0.0304	0.0319n=678 Average	0.0313n=721 Average	0.0328	+0.006	+0.004	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0307 at 0.546 share (log5 0.0328 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x0.9384 at 0.454 share (log5 0.0299 vs pen 0.0285) = x0.9888 \| starter alone would have been +0.005
Jonathan Aranda	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.938 → 0.939	+0.001	0.2169	0.2302n=661 Good	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.2380	+0.056	+0.032	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0341 at 0.546 share (log5 0.2380 vs his 0.2244) + bullpen x0.96 at 0.454 share (log5 0.2210 vs pen 0.2081) = x1.0005 \| starter alone would have been +0.032
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.047 → 1.081	+0.034	0.2212	0.2420n=661 Average	0.2193n=721 Average	0.2401	+0.088	-0.008	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9918 at 0.546 share (log5 0.2401 vs his 0.2193) + bullpen x1.081 at 0.454 share (log5 0.2616 vs pen 0.2397) = x1.0323 \| starter alone would have been -0.009
		Walkswhole staff	0.378 → 0.354	-0.024	0.0889	0.1007n=661 Good	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.0763	+0.050	-0.092	-0.011 ok
		split	starter x0.7578 at 0.546 share (log5 0.0763 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.1544 at 0.454 share (log5 0.1163 vs pen 0.1029) = x0.9377 \| starter alone would have been -0.091
		Home runswhole staff	0.141 → 0.139	-0.002	0.0304	0.0325n=661 Average	0.0313n=721 Average	0.0335	+0.009	+0.004	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0307 at 0.546 share (log5 0.0335 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x0.9385 at 0.454 share (log5 0.0305 vs pen 0.0285) = x0.9889 \| starter alone would have been +0.004
Junior Caminero	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.974 → 0.975	+0.001	0.2169	0.2330n=695 Good	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.2409	+0.066	+0.031	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0339 at 0.546 share (log5 0.2409 vs his 0.2244) + bullpen x0.9602 at 0.454 share (log5 0.2237 vs pen 0.2081) = x1.0005 \| starter alone would have been +0.033
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.728 → 0.754	+0.025	0.2212	0.1853n=695 Good	0.2193n=721 Average	0.1836	-0.147	-0.008	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9912 at 0.546 share (log5 0.1836 vs his 0.2193) + bullpen x1.0876 at 0.454 share (log5 0.2015 vs pen 0.2397) = x1.0349 \| starter alone would have been -0.006
		Walkswhole staff	0.412 → 0.387	-0.026	0.0889	0.1100n=695 Good	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.0836	+0.086	-0.089	-0.019 ok
		split	starter x0.7597 at 0.546 share (log5 0.0836 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.1525 at 0.454 share (log5 0.1268 vs pen 0.1029) = x0.9379 \| starter alone would have been -0.099
		Home runswhole staff	0.223 → 0.220	-0.003	0.0304	0.0522n=695 Very good	0.0313n=721 Average	0.0537	+0.089	+0.004	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.03 at 0.546 share (log5 0.0537 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x0.9396 at 0.454 share (log5 0.0490 vs pen 0.0285) = x0.989 \| starter alone would have been +0.007
Ryan Vilade	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.774 → 0.775	+0.000	0.2169	0.2163n=274 Average	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.2238	-0.002	+0.028	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0347 at 0.546 share (log5 0.2238 vs his 0.2244) + bullpen x0.9593 at 0.454 share (log5 0.2075 vs pen 0.2081) = x1.0005 \| starter alone would have been +0.027
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.880 → 0.908	+0.029	0.2212	0.2348n=274 Average	0.2193n=721 Average	0.2329	+0.051	-0.007	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9917 at 0.546 share (log5 0.2329 vs his 0.2193) + bullpen x1.0818 at 0.454 share (log5 0.2540 vs pen 0.2397) = x1.0326 \| starter alone would have been -0.007
		Walkswhole staff	0.290 → 0.272	-0.018	0.0889	0.0931n=274 Average	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.0704	+0.016	-0.082	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.7562 at 0.546 share (log5 0.0704 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.1559 at 0.454 share (log5 0.1076 vs pen 0.1029) = x0.9375 \| starter alone would have been -0.071
		Home runswhole staff	0.148 → 0.147	-0.002	0.0304	0.0354n=274 Good	0.0313n=721 Average	0.0364	+0.019	+0.004	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0306 at 0.546 share (log5 0.0364 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x0.9386 at 0.454 share (log5 0.0332 vs pen 0.0285) = x0.9889 \| starter alone would have been +0.004
Jonny DeLuca	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.992 → 0.993	+0.001	0.2169	0.2346n=363 Good	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.2426	+0.069	+0.029	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0339 at 0.546 share (log5 0.2426 vs his 0.2244) + bullpen x0.9603 at 0.454 share (log5 0.2253 vs pen 0.2081) = x1.0005 \| starter alone would have been +0.034
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.841 → 0.869	+0.028	0.2212	0.2132n=363 Average	0.2193n=721 Average	0.2114	-0.031	-0.007	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9915 at 0.546 share (log5 0.2114 vs his 0.2193) + bullpen x1.0843 at 0.454 share (log5 0.2312 vs pen 0.2397) = x1.0336 \| starter alone would have been -0.007
		Walkswhole staff	0.188 → 0.176	-0.012	0.0889	0.0572n=363 Poor	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.0429	-0.123	-0.084	+0.029 ok
		split	starter x0.749 at 0.546 share (log5 0.0429 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.163 at 0.454 share (log5 0.0666 vs pen 0.1029) = x0.9368 \| starter alone would have been -0.047
		Home runswhole staff	0.130 → 0.129	-0.002	0.0304	0.0303n=363 Average	0.0313n=721 Average	0.0313	-0.000	+0.004	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0307 at 0.546 share (log5 0.0313 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x0.9383 at 0.454 share (log5 0.0285 vs pen 0.0285) = x0.9888 \| starter alone would have been +0.004
Chandler Simpson	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.910 → 0.910	+0.000	0.2169	0.2576n=606 Very good	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.2660	+0.158	+0.029	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0328 at 0.546 share (log5 0.2660 vs his 0.2244) + bullpen x0.9614 at 0.454 share (log5 0.2476 vs pen 0.2081) = x1.0004 \| starter alone would have been +0.030
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.392 → 0.407	+0.015	0.2212	0.0898n=606 Very good	0.2193n=721 Average	0.0889	-0.511	-0.007	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9902 at 0.546 share (log5 0.0889 vs his 0.2193) + bullpen x1.0989 at 0.454 share (log5 0.0986 vs pen 0.2397) = x1.0395 \| starter alone would have been -0.004
		Walkswhole staff	0.141 → 0.132	-0.009	0.0889	0.0505n=606 Poor	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.0377	-0.150	-0.085	+0.035 ok
		split	starter x0.7476 at 0.546 share (log5 0.0377 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.1644 at 0.454 share (log5 0.0588 vs pen 0.1029) = x0.9367 \| starter alone would have been -0.036
		Home runswhole staff	0.039 → 0.038	-0.000	0.0304	0.0092n=606 Poor	0.0313n=721 Average	0.0095	-0.082	+0.004	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.0314 at 0.546 share (log5 0.0095 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x0.9371 at 0.454 share (log5 0.0086 vs pen 0.0285) = x0.9886 \| starter alone would have been +0.001
Nick Fortes	C	Hitswhole staff	0.822 → 0.822	+0.000	0.2169	0.2269n=320 Good	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.2346	+0.033	+0.025	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0342 at 0.546 share (log5 0.2346 vs his 0.2244) + bullpen x0.9599 at 0.454 share (log5 0.2178 vs pen 0.2081) = x1.0005 \| starter alone would have been +0.028
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.515 → 0.534	+0.019	0.2212	0.1513n=320 Good	0.2193n=721 Average	0.1499	-0.229	-0.006	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9908 at 0.546 share (log5 0.1499 vs his 0.2193) + bullpen x1.0916 at 0.454 share (log5 0.1651 vs pen 0.2397) = x1.0365 \| starter alone would have been -0.005
		Walkswhole staff	0.147 → 0.138	-0.009	0.0889	0.0514n=320 Poor	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.0385	-0.123	-0.071	+0.029 ok
		split	starter x0.7478 at 0.546 share (log5 0.0385 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.1642 at 0.454 share (log5 0.0599 vs pen 0.1029) = x0.9367 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Home runswhole staff	0.089 → 0.088	-0.001	0.0304	0.0240n=320 Below average	0.0313n=721 Average	0.0248	-0.021	+0.003	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0309 at 0.546 share (log5 0.0248 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x0.938 at 0.454 share (log5 0.0225 vs pen 0.0285) = x0.9888 \| starter alone would have been +0.003
Jorge Mateo	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.781 → 0.782	+0.001	0.2169	0.2085n=219 Below average	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.2158	-0.028	+0.025	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0351 at 0.546 share (log5 0.2158 vs his 0.2244) + bullpen x0.959 at 0.454 share (log5 0.2000 vs pen 0.2081) = x1.0006 \| starter alone would have been +0.027
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.016 → 1.047	+0.030	0.2212	0.2943n=219 Below average	0.2193n=721 Average	0.2920	+0.247	-0.006	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9924 at 0.546 share (log5 0.2920 vs his 0.2193) + bullpen x1.075 at 0.454 share (log5 0.3163 vs pen 0.2397) = x1.0299 \| starter alone would have been -0.008
		Walkswhole staff	0.177 → 0.166	-0.011	0.0889	0.0639n=219 Below average	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.0479	-0.085	-0.074	+0.020 ok
		split	starter x0.7503 at 0.546 share (log5 0.0479 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.1617 at 0.454 share (log5 0.0742 vs pen 0.1029) = x0.9369 \| starter alone would have been -0.044
		Home runswhole staff	0.102 → 0.101	-0.001	0.0304	0.0270n=219 Average	0.0313n=721 Average	0.0278	-0.012	+0.003	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0308 at 0.546 share (log5 0.0278 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x0.9381 at 0.454 share (log5 0.0253 vs pen 0.0285) = x0.9888 \| starter alone would have been +0.003
Taylor Walls	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.730 → 0.730	+0.000	0.2169	0.2028n=430 Below average	0.2244n=721 Below average	0.2099	-0.049	+0.026	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0353 at 0.546 share (log5 0.2099 vs his 0.2244) + bullpen x0.9587 at 0.454 share (log5 0.1944 vs pen 0.2081) = x1.0006 \| starter alone would have been +0.026
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.828 → 0.855	+0.027	0.2212	0.2418n=430 Average	0.2193n=721 Average	0.2399	+0.071	-0.006	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9918 at 0.546 share (log5 0.2399 vs his 0.2193) + bullpen x1.081 at 0.454 share (log5 0.2614 vs pen 0.2397) = x1.0323 \| starter alone would have been -0.007
		Walkswhole staff	0.312 → 0.293	-0.019	0.0889	0.1012n=430 Good	0.0672n=721 Very good	0.0767	+0.043	-0.075	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.7579 at 0.546 share (log5 0.0767 vs his 0.0672) + bullpen x1.1543 at 0.454 share (log5 0.1169 vs pen 0.1029) = x0.9377 \| starter alone would have been -0.076
		Home runswhole staff	0.056 → 0.055	-0.001	0.0304	0.0144n=430 Poor	0.0313n=721 Average	0.0149	-0.055	+0.003	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0313 at 0.546 share (log5 0.0149 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x0.9374 at 0.454 share (log5 0.0135 vs pen 0.0285) = x0.9887 \| starter alone would have been +0.002
STARTER Drew Rasmussen22.7563 BF	Starter	Hits	3.836 → 3.905	+0.070	0.2169	0.1960n=669 Good	0.22079/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1996	-0.474	+0.088	-0.006 ok
		Strikeouts	5.655 → 4.817	-0.838	0.2212	0.2559n=669 Good	0.18719/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2180	+0.790	-0.775	-0.088 ok
		Walks	1.264 → 1.256	-0.008	0.0889	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.08839/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0553	-0.757	-0.013	+0.005 ok
		Home runs	0.272 → 0.257	-0.015	0.0304	0.0247n=669 Good	0.02879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0234	-0.129	-0.038	+0.007 ok
RELIEVER Griffin Jax3.1132 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.653 → 0.665	+0.012	0.2169	0.2098n=434 Average	0.22079/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2136	-0.022	+0.012	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.773 → 0.658	-0.116	0.2212	0.2484n=434 Good	0.18719/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2113	+0.085	-0.106	-0.009 ok
		Walks	0.253 → 0.251	-0.002	0.0889	0.0812n=434 Average	0.08839/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0806	-0.024	-0.002	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.098 → 0.092	-0.005	0.0304	0.0313n=434 Average	0.02879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0296	+0.003	-0.005	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Ian Seymour2.794 BF	Long Reliever	Hits	1.326 → 1.350	+0.024	0.2169	0.2104n=551 Average	0.22079/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2141	-0.018	+0.011	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.951 → 1.669	-0.282	0.2212	0.2784n=551 Very good	0.18719/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2382	+0.160	-0.095	-0.017 ok
		Walks	0.433 → 0.430	-0.003	0.0889	0.0706n=551 Good	0.08839/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0701	-0.051	-0.002	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.225 → 0.213	-0.012	0.0304	0.0387n=551 Poor	0.02879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0366	+0.023	-0.005	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Kevin Kelly2.3307 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.483 → 0.492	+0.009	0.2169	0.2073n=279 Average	0.22079/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2110	-0.022	+0.009	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.524 → 0.444	-0.080	0.2212	0.2248n=279 Average	0.18719/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1903	+0.008	-0.079	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.134 → 0.133	-0.001	0.0889	0.0573n=279 Very good	0.08839/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0569	-0.074	-0.001	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.063 → 0.059	-0.003	0.0304	0.0270n=279 Good	0.02879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0255	-0.008	-0.004	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Cam Booser2.0913 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.352 → 0.358	+0.006	0.2169	0.1990n=152 Good	0.22079/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2026	-0.037	+0.008	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.651 → 0.556	-0.095	0.2212	0.2702n=152 Good	0.18719/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2308	+0.102	-0.071	-0.011 ok
		Walks	0.120 → 0.119	-0.001	0.0889	0.0646n=152 Very good	0.08839/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0642	-0.051	-0.001	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.064 → 0.060	-0.004	0.0304	0.0310n=152 Average	0.02879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0293	+0.001	-0.004	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Bryan Baker2.0643 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.379 → 0.386	+0.007	0.2169	0.1836n=244 Very good	0.22079/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1870	-0.069	+0.008	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.514 → 0.437	-0.077	0.2212	0.2490n=244 Good	0.18719/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2118	+0.058	-0.070	-0.006 ok
		Walks	0.185 → 0.184	-0.001	0.0889	0.0897n=244 Average	0.08839/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0891	+0.002	-0.001	0 ok
		Home runs	0.052 → 0.050	-0.003	0.0304	0.0254n=244 Good	0.02879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0241	-0.010	-0.003	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Steven Matz0.2432 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.053 → 0.054	+0.001	0.2169	0.2166n=342 Average	0.22079/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2205	-0.000	+0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.045 → 0.038	-0.007	0.2212	0.1865n=342 Below average	0.18719/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1567	-0.008	-0.008	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.019 → 0.019	-0.000	0.0889	0.0781n=342 Good	0.08839/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0776	-0.003	-0.000	0 ok
		Home runs	0.009 → 0.008	-0.001	0.0304	0.0362n=342 Poor	0.02879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0343	+0.001	-0.000	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Cole Sulser0.2317 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.051 → 0.052	+0.001	0.2169	0.2203n=236 Average	0.22079/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2242	+0.001	+0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.054 → 0.046	-0.008	0.2212	0.2332n=236 Average	0.18719/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1978	+0.003	-0.008	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.018 → 0.018	-0.000	0.0889	0.0788n=236 Good	0.08839/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0783	-0.002	-0.000	0 ok
		Home runs	0.007 → 0.007	-0.000	0.0304	0.0301n=236 Average	0.02879/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0285	-0.000	-0.000	0 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Foster Griffin	Starter	20.3	4.2	4.656	5 / 5.063	5 / 3.982	2 / 1.309	4 / 2.164	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Joey Cantillo	Long Reliever	7.4	4.2	2.003	1 / 0.716	2 / 2.074	0 / 0.704	0 / 0.118	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Drew Rasmussen	Starter	22.8	6.0	5.886	3 / 3.836	5 / 5.655	1 / 1.264	0 / 1.255	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Ian Seymour	Long Reliever	7.8	2.0	2.014	2 / 1.326	1 / 1.951	1 / 0.433	1 / 0.592	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.5	2.0	0.672	1 / 0.352	2 / 0.651	1 / 0.120	1 / 0.116	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: 2 CHECK(S) FAILED

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity136 checks	PASS	136 of 136 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 2
away staff totals a regulation workload	FAIL	28 outs recorded, 24 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 4.6564
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Foster Griffin projected 20.3 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Joey Cantillo projected 7.4 batters faced; real relievers run p01-p99 1-19, median 4, mean 5.01
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 3
home staff totals a regulation workload	FAIL	30 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.8855
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Drew Rasmussen projected 22.8 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band2 checks	PASS	2 of 2 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

20261012_LAD@MIL — published 4-3, 152 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20261012_LAD@MIL.json, phase pregame, generated 2026-10-12T18:39:40, first pitch 2026-10-12T21:00:00.
Published 4 - 3 with p(home) 0.495000. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; ? of ? draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	4.2098050027763065 - 4.487887663716807	0	0	0	0	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 4	-0.2098	-0.4879	-0.2098	-0.4879	yes	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	4 - 3	0	-1.0000	-0.2098	-1.4879	yes	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `kpi_layer`	4.0 - 3.0	0	0	-0.2098	-1.4879	no	away -0.1477; home +0.2629 Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept
5. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 3	0	0	-0.2098	-1.4879	no	away +0.1058; home -0.1772 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 3	0	0	-0.2098	-1.4879	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
7. `capped_target`	4 - 3	0	0	-0.2098	-1.4879	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8. `simulation_result`	4 - 3	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

KPI layer withheld. values_fresh. The published score is the pre-KPI baseline.

Per-player metric movement

LAD against Kris Bubic (LHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to LAD hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 19.6235 of 37.104 projected batters (52.9%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 47.1%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Mookie Betts	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.908 → 0.824	-0.084	0.2169	0.2268n=523 Good	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.1992	+0.042	-0.113	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8784 at 0.529 share (log5 0.1992 vs his 0.1902) + bullpen x0.9396 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2131 vs pen 0.2036) = x0.9072 \| starter alone would have been -0.110
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.684 → 0.833	+0.148	0.2212	0.1168n=523 Very good	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.1546	-0.441	+0.257	-0.097 ok
		split	starter x1.3241 at 0.529 share (log5 0.1546 vs his 0.2821) + bullpen x1.095 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1279 vs pen 0.2395) = x1.2162 \| starter alone would have been +0.222
		Walkswhole staff	0.368 → 0.311	-0.057	0.0889	0.0866n=523 Average	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.0599	-0.010	-0.115	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.6924 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0599 vs his 0.0616) + bullpen x1.0186 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0882 vs pen 0.0906) = x0.8461 \| starter alone would have been -0.113
		Home runswhole staff	0.149 → 0.150	+0.001	0.0304	0.0394n=523 Good	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.0442	+0.038	+0.016	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.1208 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0442 vs his 0.0341) + bullpen x0.8709 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0343 vs pen 0.0264) = x1.0031 \| starter alone would have been +0.018
Freddie Freeman	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.894 → 0.813	-0.082	0.2169	0.2394n=652 Very good	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.2107	+0.098	-0.116	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.8801 at 0.529 share (log5 0.2107 vs his 0.1902) + bullpen x0.9405 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2252 vs pen 0.2036) = x0.9086 \| starter alone would have been -0.107
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.953 → 1.141	+0.188	0.2212	0.1781n=652 Good	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.2306	-0.187	+0.264	-0.036 ok
		split	starter x1.295 at 0.529 share (log5 0.2306 vs his 0.2821) + bullpen x1.0878 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1937 vs pen 0.2395) = x1.1974 \| starter alone would have been +0.281
		Walkswhole staff	0.394 → 0.334	-0.060	0.0889	0.0993n=652 Average	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.0691	+0.045	-0.118	-0.013 ok
		split	starter x0.6953 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0691 vs his 0.0616) + bullpen x1.0183 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1011 vs pen 0.0906) = x0.8475 \| starter alone would have been -0.120
		Home runswhole staff	0.122 → 0.122	+0.000	0.0304	0.0262n=652 Average	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.0294	-0.018	+0.016	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.1226 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0294 vs his 0.0341) + bullpen x0.8694 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0228 vs pen 0.0264) = x1.0033 \| starter alone would have been +0.015
Teoscar Hernández	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.857 → 0.777	-0.079	0.2169	0.2292n=487 Good	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.2014	+0.050	-0.110	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.8787 at 0.529 share (log5 0.2014 vs his 0.1902) + bullpen x0.9398 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2154 vs pen 0.2036) = x0.9075 \| starter alone would have been -0.104
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.447 → 1.694	+0.247	0.2212	0.2684n=487 Below average	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.3366	+0.194	+0.250	+0.030 ok
		split	starter x1.2543 at 0.529 share (log5 0.3366 vs his 0.2821) + bullpen x1.0774 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2892 vs pen 0.2395) = x1.171 \| starter alone would have been +0.368
		Walkswhole staff	0.310 → 0.262	-0.048	0.0889	0.0868n=487 Average	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.0601	-0.009	-0.112	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.6924 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0601 vs his 0.0616) + bullpen x1.0186 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0884 vs pen 0.0906) = x0.8461 \| starter alone would have been -0.095
		Home runswhole staff	0.128 → 0.129	+0.000	0.0304	0.0320n=487 Average	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.0359	+0.007	+0.015	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.1218 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0359 vs his 0.0341) + bullpen x0.8701 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0278 vs pen 0.0264) = x1.0032 \| starter alone would have been +0.016
Shohei Ohtani	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.801 → 0.727	-0.074	0.2169	0.2255n=613 Good	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.1980	+0.036	-0.113	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8782 at 0.529 share (log5 0.1980 vs his 0.1902) + bullpen x0.9395 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2118 vs pen 0.2036) = x0.9071 \| starter alone would have been -0.098
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.279 → 1.506	+0.227	0.2212	0.2445n=613 Average	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.3092	+0.098	+0.257	+0.016 ok
		split	starter x1.2648 at 0.529 share (log5 0.3092 vs his 0.2821) + bullpen x1.0802 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2641 vs pen 0.2395) = x1.1778 \| starter alone would have been +0.339
		Walkswhole staff	0.458 → 0.390	-0.069	0.0889	0.1251n=613 Very good	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.0878	+0.153	-0.115	-0.042 ok
		split	starter x0.7015 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0878 vs his 0.0616) + bullpen x1.0178 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1273 vs pen 0.0906) = x0.8505 \| starter alone would have been -0.137
		Home runswhole staff	0.175 → 0.175	+0.001	0.0304	0.0434n=613 Very good	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.0486	+0.055	+0.016	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x1.1202 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0486 vs his 0.0341) + bullpen x0.8714 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0378 vs pen 0.0264) = x1.003 \| starter alone would have been +0.021
Will Smith	C	Hitswhole staff	0.786 → 0.713	-0.074	0.2169	0.2185n=276 Average	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.1916	+0.006	-0.107	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8772 at 0.529 share (log5 0.1916 vs his 0.1902) + bullpen x0.939 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2051 vs pen 0.2036) = x0.9063 \| starter alone would have been -0.097
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.937 → 1.123	+0.187	0.2212	0.1718n=276 Good	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.2229	-0.199	+0.244	-0.039 ok
		split	starter x1.2979 at 0.529 share (log5 0.2229 vs his 0.2821) + bullpen x1.0886 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1870 vs pen 0.2395) = x1.1993 \| starter alone would have been +0.279
		Walkswhole staff	0.399 → 0.339	-0.060	0.0889	0.1129n=276 Good	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.0788	+0.096	-0.110	-0.027 ok
		split	starter x0.6985 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0788 vs his 0.0616) + bullpen x1.0181 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1149 vs pen 0.0906) = x0.8491 \| starter alone would have been -0.120
		Home runswhole staff	0.122 → 0.122	+0.000	0.0304	0.0334n=276 Average	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.0374	+0.012	+0.015	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.1216 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0374 vs his 0.0341) + bullpen x0.8702 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0290 vs pen 0.0264) = x1.0032 \| starter alone would have been +0.015
Max Muncy	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.775 → 0.702	-0.073	0.2169	0.2173n=556 Average	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.1906	+0.002	-0.108	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8771 at 0.529 share (log5 0.1906 vs his 0.1902) + bullpen x0.9389 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2040 vs pen 0.2036) = x0.9062 \| starter alone would have been -0.095
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.257 → 1.479	+0.222	0.2212	0.2493n=556 Below average	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.3148	+0.114	+0.246	+0.019 ok
		split	starter x1.2627 at 0.529 share (log5 0.3148 vs his 0.2821) + bullpen x1.0796 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2692 vs pen 0.2395) = x1.1764 \| starter alone would have been +0.330
		Walkswhole staff	0.416 → 0.353	-0.063	0.0889	0.1105n=556 Good	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.0771	+0.087	-0.110	-0.025 ok
		split	starter x0.698 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0771 vs his 0.0616) + bullpen x1.0181 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1125 vs pen 0.0906) = x0.8488 \| starter alone would have been -0.126
		Home runswhole staff	0.202 → 0.203	+0.001	0.0304	0.0451n=556 Very good	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.0506	+0.060	+0.015	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x1.12 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0506 vs his 0.0341) + bullpen x0.8716 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0393 vs pen 0.0264) = x1.003 \| starter alone would have been +0.024
Andy Pages	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.768 → 0.698	-0.071	0.2169	0.2323n=569 Good	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.2043	+0.058	-0.100	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.8792 at 0.529 share (log5 0.2043 vs his 0.1902) + bullpen x0.94 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2184 vs pen 0.2036) = x0.9078 \| starter alone would have been -0.093
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.968 → 1.153	+0.185	0.2212	0.1971n=569 Average	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.2536	-0.090	+0.229	-0.017 ok
		split	starter x1.2862 at 0.529 share (log5 0.2536 vs his 0.2821) + bullpen x1.0856 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2140 vs pen 0.2395) = x1.1917 \| starter alone would have been +0.277
		Walkswhole staff	0.326 → 0.276	-0.050	0.0889	0.0866n=569 Average	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.0600	-0.009	-0.103	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.6924 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0600 vs his 0.0616) + bullpen x1.0186 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0882 vs pen 0.0906) = x0.8461 \| starter alone would have been -0.100
		Home runswhole staff	0.128 → 0.128	+0.000	0.0304	0.0372n=569 Good	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.0417	+0.026	+0.014	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.1211 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0417 vs his 0.0341) + bullpen x0.8707 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0324 vs pen 0.0264) = x1.0031 \| starter alone would have been +0.015
Kyle Tucker	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.701 → 0.634	-0.067	0.2169	0.2076n=622 Below average	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.1818	-0.035	-0.100	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8757 at 0.529 share (log5 0.1818 vs his 0.1902) + bullpen x0.9382 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1947 vs pen 0.2036) = x0.9051 \| starter alone would have been -0.087
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.812 → 0.974	+0.162	0.2212	0.1711n=622 Good	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.2222	-0.188	+0.229	-0.037 ok
		split	starter x1.2982 at 0.529 share (log5 0.2222 vs his 0.2821) + bullpen x1.0887 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1863 vs pen 0.2395) = x1.1995 \| starter alone would have been +0.242
		Walkswhole staff	0.380 → 0.323	-0.057	0.0889	0.1195n=622 Very good	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.0837	+0.115	-0.103	-0.032 ok
		split	starter x0.7001 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0837 vs his 0.0616) + bullpen x1.0179 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1217 vs pen 0.0906) = x0.8498 \| starter alone would have been -0.114
		Home runswhole staff	0.103 → 0.104	+0.000	0.0304	0.0282n=622 Average	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.0317	-0.008	+0.014	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.1224 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0317 vs his 0.0341) + bullpen x0.8696 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0246 vs pen 0.0264) = x1.0033 \| starter alone would have been +0.013
Tommy Edman	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.698 → 0.633	-0.066	0.2169	0.2160n=326 Average	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.1894	-0.003	-0.095	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8769 at 0.529 share (log5 0.1894 vs his 0.1902) + bullpen x0.9388 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2027 vs pen 0.2036) = x0.9061 \| starter alone would have been -0.086
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.924 → 1.099	+0.175	0.2212	0.2049n=326 Average	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.2628	-0.058	+0.216	-0.011 ok
		split	starter x1.2826 at 0.529 share (log5 0.2628 vs his 0.2821) + bullpen x1.0847 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2223 vs pen 0.2395) = x1.1894 \| starter alone would have been +0.261
		Walkswhole staff	0.254 → 0.214	-0.040	0.0889	0.0732n=326 Below average	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.0505	-0.056	-0.097	+0.016 ok
		split	starter x0.6893 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0505 vs his 0.0616) + bullpen x1.0189 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0746 vs pen 0.0906) = x0.8446 \| starter alone would have been -0.079
		Home runswhole staff	0.093 → 0.093	+0.000	0.0304	0.0272n=326 Average	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.0305	-0.011	+0.013	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.1225 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0305 vs his 0.0341) + bullpen x0.8695 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0236 vs pen 0.0264) = x1.0033 \| starter alone would have been +0.011
STARTER Yoshinobu Yamamoto24.6536 BF	Starter	Hits	4.187 → 4.314	+0.127	0.2169	0.1839n=678 Very good	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1895	-0.812	+0.156	-0.018 ok
		Strikeouts	6.700 → 6.762	+0.061	0.2212	0.2542n=678 Good	0.22339/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2565	+0.814	+0.052	+0.005 ok
		Walks	1.610 → 1.868	+0.258	0.0889	0.0670n=678 Very good	0.10289/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0778	-0.540	+0.342	-0.077 ok
		Home runs	0.690 → 0.636	-0.053	0.0304	0.0290n=678 Average	0.02809/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0267	-0.035	-0.058	+0.003 ok
RELIEVER Edgardo Henriquez2.5288 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.475 → 0.490	+0.014	0.2169	0.1880n=242 Very good	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1937	-0.073	+0.016	-0.002 ok
		Strikeouts	0.697 → 0.703	+0.006	0.2212	0.2754n=242 Good	0.22339/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2779	+0.137	+0.005	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.247 → 0.285	+0.038	0.0889	0.0976n=242 Average	0.10289/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1127	+0.022	+0.035	+0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.053 → 0.049	-0.004	0.0304	0.0212n=242 Very good	0.02809/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0195	-0.023	-0.006	+0.002 ok
RELIEVER Edwin Díaz1.939 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.913 → 0.940	+0.027	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2232	0	+0.012	0 ok
		Strikeouts	1.366 → 1.379	+0.013	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22339/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2233	0	+0.004	0 ok
		Walks	0.370 → 0.428	+0.058	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10289/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1028	0	+0.027	0 ok
		Home runs	0.108 → 0.100	-0.008	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.02809/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0280	0	-0.005	0 ok
RELIEVER Tanner Scott1.5566 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.319 → 0.329	+0.009	0.2169	0.2051n=251 Good	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2111	-0.018	+0.010	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.469 → 0.473	+0.004	0.2212	0.3011n=251 Very good	0.22339/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3037	+0.124	+0.003	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.111 → 0.128	+0.018	0.0889	0.0710n=251 Good	0.10289/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0823	-0.028	+0.022	-0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.039 → 0.036	-0.003	0.0304	0.0252n=251 Good	0.02809/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0232	-0.008	-0.004	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Alex Vesia1.5156 BF	Middle Reliever	Hits	0.452 → 0.466	+0.014	0.2169	0.1766n=237 Very good	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1820	-0.061	+0.010	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.259 → 1.270	+0.011	0.2212	0.2892n=237 Very good	0.22339/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2917	+0.103	+0.003	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.488 → 0.562	+0.073	0.0889	0.1166n=237 Poor	0.10289/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1342	+0.042	+0.021	+0.006 ok
		Home runs	0.052 → 0.048	-0.004	0.0304	0.0257n=237 Good	0.02809/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0237	-0.007	-0.004	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Evan Phillips1.4356 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.524 → 0.539	+0.015	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2232	0	+0.009	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.895 → 0.904	+0.009	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22339/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2233	0	+0.003	0 ok
		Walks	0.176 → 0.203	+0.027	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10289/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1028	0	+0.020	0 ok
		Home runs	0.100 → 0.092	-0.008	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.02809/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0280	0	-0.003	0 ok
RELIEVER Brock Stewart1.2488 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.271 → 0.279	+0.008	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2232	0	+0.008	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.276 → 0.279	+0.003	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22339/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2233	0	+0.003	0 ok
		Walks	0.111 → 0.128	+0.017	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10289/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1028	0	+0.017	0 ok
		Home runs	0.038 → 0.035	-0.003	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.02809/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0280	0	-0.003	0 ok
RELIEVER Kris Bubic0.5768 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.115 → 0.118	+0.003	0.2169	0.1996n=226 Good	0.22329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2055	-0.010	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.139 → 0.140	+0.001	0.2212	0.2408n=226 Average	0.22339/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2431	+0.011	+0.001	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.060 → 0.069	+0.009	0.0889	0.1043n=226 Below average	0.10289/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1203	+0.009	+0.008	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.015 → 0.014	-0.001	0.0304	0.0261n=226 Good	0.02809/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0241	-0.003	-0.001	+0.000 ok

MIL against Chad Patrick (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to MIL hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 24.6536 of 35.456 projected batters (69.5%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 30.5%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Jackson Chourio	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.968 → 0.849	-0.119	0.2169	0.2457n=567 Very good	0.1839n=678 Very good	0.2095	+0.126	-0.144	-0.014 ok
		split	starter x0.8528 at 0.695 share (log5 0.2095 vs his 0.1839) + bullpen x0.9331 at 0.305 share (log5 0.2293 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.8773 \| starter alone would have been -0.142
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.282 → 1.472	+0.190	0.2212	0.2351n=567 Average	0.2542n=678 Good	0.2695	+0.061	+0.145	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x1.1461 at 0.695 share (log5 0.2695 vs his 0.2542) + bullpen x1.1541 at 0.305 share (log5 0.2714 vs pen 0.2560) = x1.1485 \| starter alone would have been +0.187
		Walkswhole staff	0.301 → 0.253	-0.047	0.0889	0.0839n=567 Average	0.0670n=678 Very good	0.0632	-0.022	-0.096	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.7528 at 0.695 share (log5 0.0632 vs his 0.0670) + bullpen x1.0471 at 0.305 share (log5 0.0879 vs pen 0.0931) = x0.8425 \| starter alone would have been -0.074
		Home runswhole staff	0.175 → 0.162	-0.012	0.0304	0.0397n=567 Good	0.0290n=678 Average	0.0379	+0.041	-0.006	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9535 at 0.695 share (log5 0.0379 vs his 0.0290) + bullpen x0.8762 at 0.305 share (log5 0.0348 vs pen 0.0266) = x0.9299 \| starter alone would have been -0.008
Brice Turang	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.811 → 0.710	-0.102	0.2169	0.2264n=666 Good	0.1839n=678 Very good	0.1924	+0.040	-0.139	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.8497 at 0.695 share (log5 0.1924 vs his 0.1839) + bullpen x0.9315 at 0.305 share (log5 0.2109 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.8746 \| starter alone would have been -0.122
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.189 → 1.363	+0.173	0.2212	0.2473n=666 Below average	0.2542n=678 Good	0.2828	+0.110	+0.139	+0.011 ok
		split	starter x1.1435 at 0.695 share (log5 0.2828 vs his 0.2542) + bullpen x1.1513 at 0.305 share (log5 0.2848 vs pen 0.2560) = x1.1459 \| starter alone would have been +0.171
		Walkswhole staff	0.430 → 0.364	-0.066	0.0889	0.1243n=666 Very good	0.0670n=678 Very good	0.0946	+0.149	-0.092	-0.033 ok
		split	starter x0.7611 at 0.695 share (log5 0.0946 vs his 0.0670) + bullpen x1.0449 at 0.305 share (log5 0.1299 vs pen 0.0931) = x0.8476 \| starter alone would have been -0.103
		Home runswhole staff	0.113 → 0.105	-0.008	0.0304	0.0312n=666 Average	0.0290n=678 Average	0.0297	+0.004	-0.006	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9531 at 0.695 share (log5 0.0297 vs his 0.0290) + bullpen x0.8752 at 0.305 share (log5 0.0273 vs pen 0.0266) = x0.9294 \| starter alone would have been -0.005
William Contreras	C	Hitswhole staff	0.865 → 0.757	-0.108	0.2169	0.2303n=630 Good	0.1839n=678 Very good	0.1958	+0.056	-0.137	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.8503 at 0.695 share (log5 0.1958 vs his 0.1839) + bullpen x0.9318 at 0.305 share (log5 0.2146 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.8751 \| starter alone would have been -0.129
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.735 → 0.858	+0.123	0.2212	0.1529n=630 Good	0.2542n=678 Good	0.1780	-0.284	+0.137	-0.033 ok
		split	starter x1.1644 at 0.695 share (log5 0.1780 vs his 0.2542) + bullpen x1.1735 at 0.305 share (log5 0.1794 vs pen 0.2560) = x1.1672 \| starter alone would have been +0.121
		Walkswhole staff	0.369 → 0.311	-0.058	0.0889	0.0942n=630 Average	0.0670n=678 Very good	0.0711	+0.022	-0.091	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.7549 at 0.695 share (log5 0.0711 vs his 0.0670) + bullpen x1.0465 at 0.305 share (log5 0.0986 vs pen 0.0931) = x0.8438 \| starter alone would have been -0.090
		Home runswhole staff	0.114 → 0.106	-0.008	0.0304	0.0291n=630 Average	0.0290n=678 Average	0.0277	-0.005	-0.006	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.953 at 0.695 share (log5 0.0277 vs his 0.0290) + bullpen x0.875 at 0.305 share (log5 0.0255 vs pen 0.0266) = x0.9292 \| starter alone would have been -0.005
Jake Bauers	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.673 → 0.588	-0.085	0.2169	0.2179n=567 Average	0.1839n=678 Very good	0.1848	+0.004	-0.135	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8482 at 0.695 share (log5 0.1848 vs his 0.1839) + bullpen x0.9308 at 0.305 share (log5 0.2028 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.8734 \| starter alone would have been -0.102
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.250 → 1.426	+0.177	0.2212	0.2676n=567 Below average	0.2542n=678 Good	0.3048	+0.190	+0.135	+0.017 ok
		split	starter x1.1391 at 0.695 share (log5 0.3048 vs his 0.2542) + bullpen x1.1466 at 0.305 share (log5 0.3069 vs pen 0.2560) = x1.1414 \| starter alone would have been +0.174
		Walkswhole staff	0.500 → 0.426	-0.074	0.0889	0.1510n=567 Very good	0.0670n=678 Very good	0.1158	+0.254	-0.089	-0.054 ok
		split	starter x0.7667 at 0.695 share (log5 0.1158 vs his 0.0670) + bullpen x1.0435 at 0.305 share (log5 0.1576 vs pen 0.0931) = x0.851 \| starter alone would have been -0.117
		Home runswhole staff	0.140 → 0.130	-0.010	0.0304	0.0397n=567 Good	0.0290n=678 Average	0.0379	+0.038	-0.006	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9535 at 0.695 share (log5 0.0379 vs his 0.0290) + bullpen x0.8762 at 0.305 share (log5 0.0348 vs pen 0.0266) = x0.9299 \| starter alone would have been -0.006
Christian Yelich	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.791 → 0.690	-0.101	0.2169	0.2108n=487 Average	0.1839n=678 Very good	0.1786	-0.025	-0.135	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8471 at 0.695 share (log5 0.1786 vs his 0.1839) + bullpen x0.9302 at 0.305 share (log5 0.1961 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.8724 \| starter alone would have been -0.121
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.265 → 1.444	+0.179	0.2212	0.2684n=487 Below average	0.2542n=678 Good	0.3057	+0.193	+0.135	+0.018 ok
		split	starter x1.1389 at 0.695 share (log5 0.3057 vs his 0.2542) + bullpen x1.1464 at 0.305 share (log5 0.3077 vs pen 0.2560) = x1.1412 \| starter alone would have been +0.176
		Walkswhole staff	0.407 → 0.344	-0.063	0.0889	0.0983n=487 Average	0.0670n=678 Very good	0.0743	+0.038	-0.090	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.7558 at 0.695 share (log5 0.0743 vs his 0.0670) + bullpen x1.0463 at 0.305 share (log5 0.1029 vs pen 0.0931) = x0.8443 \| starter alone would have been -0.099
		Home runswhole staff	0.093 → 0.087	-0.007	0.0304	0.0267n=487 Average	0.0290n=678 Average	0.0254	-0.015	-0.006	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9529 at 0.695 share (log5 0.0254 vs his 0.0290) + bullpen x0.8747 at 0.305 share (log5 0.0233 vs pen 0.0266) = x0.9291 \| starter alone would have been -0.004
Garrett Mitchell	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.671 → 0.586	-0.085	0.2169	0.2215n=519 Average	0.1839n=678 Very good	0.1880	+0.018	-0.129	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8488 at 0.695 share (log5 0.1880 vs his 0.1839) + bullpen x0.9311 at 0.305 share (log5 0.2062 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.8739 \| starter alone would have been -0.101
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.504 → 1.704	+0.200	0.2212	0.3061n=519 Poor	0.2542n=678 Good	0.3461	+0.332	+0.129	+0.028 ok
		split	starter x1.1308 at 0.695 share (log5 0.3461 vs his 0.2542) + bullpen x1.1378 at 0.305 share (log5 0.3483 vs pen 0.2560) = x1.1329 \| starter alone would have been +0.197
		Walkswhole staff	0.366 → 0.310	-0.057	0.0889	0.1091n=519 Good	0.0670n=678 Very good	0.0827	+0.079	-0.086	-0.018 ok
		split	starter x0.758 at 0.695 share (log5 0.0827 vs his 0.0670) + bullpen x1.0457 at 0.305 share (log5 0.1140 vs pen 0.0931) = x0.8457 \| starter alone would have been -0.089
		Home runswhole staff	0.080 → 0.074	-0.006	0.0304	0.0243n=519 Below average	0.0290n=678 Average	0.0232	-0.024	-0.006	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9528 at 0.695 share (log5 0.0232 vs his 0.0290) + bullpen x0.8745 at 0.305 share (log5 0.0212 vs pen 0.0266) = x0.9289 \| starter alone would have been -0.004
Cooper Pratt	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.789 → 0.690	-0.099	0.2169	0.2255n=258 Good	0.1839n=678 Very good	0.1916	+0.032	-0.120	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8495 at 0.695 share (log5 0.1916 vs his 0.1839) + bullpen x0.9314 at 0.305 share (log5 0.2101 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.8745 \| starter alone would have been -0.119
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.869 → 1.008	+0.139	0.2212	0.1851n=258 Good	0.2542n=678 Good	0.2142	-0.132	+0.120	-0.014 ok
		split	starter x1.1572 at 0.695 share (log5 0.2142 vs his 0.2542) + bullpen x1.1658 at 0.305 share (log5 0.2158 vs pen 0.2560) = x1.1598 \| starter alone would have been +0.137
		Walkswhole staff	0.271 → 0.229	-0.043	0.0889	0.0917n=258 Average	0.0670n=678 Very good	0.0692	+0.010	-0.080	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.7544 at 0.695 share (log5 0.0692 vs his 0.0670) + bullpen x1.0467 at 0.305 share (log5 0.0960 vs pen 0.0931) = x0.8435 \| starter alone would have been -0.067
		Home runswhole staff	0.071 → 0.066	-0.005	0.0304	0.0211n=258 Below average	0.0290n=678 Average	0.0201	-0.034	-0.005	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9527 at 0.695 share (log5 0.0201 vs his 0.0290) + bullpen x0.8741 at 0.305 share (log5 0.0185 vs pen 0.0266) = x0.9288 \| starter alone would have been -0.003
Sal Frelick	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.734 → 0.640	-0.094	0.2169	0.2106n=374 Below average	0.1839n=678 Very good	0.1784	-0.023	-0.118	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.847 at 0.695 share (log5 0.1784 vs his 0.1839) + bullpen x0.9302 at 0.305 share (log5 0.1959 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.8724 \| starter alone would have been -0.112
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.492 → 0.579	+0.087	0.2212	0.1106n=374 Very good	0.2542n=678 Good	0.1299	-0.397	+0.119	-0.049 ok
		split	starter x1.1741 at 0.695 share (log5 0.1299 vs his 0.2542) + bullpen x1.1838 at 0.305 share (log5 0.1310 vs pen 0.2560) = x1.1771 \| starter alone would have been +0.086
		Walkswhole staff	0.288 → 0.242	-0.045	0.0889	0.0843n=374 Average	0.0670n=678 Very good	0.0635	-0.016	-0.079	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.7529 at 0.695 share (log5 0.0635 vs his 0.0670) + bullpen x1.0471 at 0.305 share (log5 0.0883 vs pen 0.0931) = x0.8425 \| starter alone would have been -0.071
		Home runswhole staff	0.062 → 0.058	-0.004	0.0304	0.0173n=374 Poor	0.0290n=678 Average	0.0165	-0.047	-0.005	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9525 at 0.695 share (log5 0.0165 vs his 0.0290) + bullpen x0.8737 at 0.305 share (log5 0.0151 vs pen 0.0266) = x0.9285 \| starter alone would have been -0.003
David Hamilton	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.676 → 0.590	-0.086	0.2169	0.2156n=383 Average	0.1839n=678 Very good	0.1828	-0.004	-0.114	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8479 at 0.695 share (log5 0.1828 vs his 0.1839) + bullpen x0.9306 at 0.305 share (log5 0.2006 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.8731 \| starter alone would have been -0.103
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.988 → 1.138	+0.150	0.2212	0.2218n=383 Average	0.2542n=678 Good	0.2549	+0.002	+0.114	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.149 at 0.695 share (log5 0.2549 vs his 0.2542) + bullpen x1.1572 at 0.305 share (log5 0.2567 vs pen 0.2560) = x1.1515 \| starter alone would have been +0.147
		Walkswhole staff	0.272 → 0.229	-0.043	0.0889	0.0828n=383 Average	0.0670n=678 Very good	0.0623	-0.021	-0.076	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.7526 at 0.695 share (log5 0.0623 vs his 0.0670) + bullpen x1.0472 at 0.305 share (log5 0.0867 vs pen 0.0931) = x0.8424 \| starter alone would have been -0.067
		Home runswhole staff	0.061 → 0.057	-0.004	0.0304	0.0186n=383 Poor	0.0290n=678 Average	0.0177	-0.041	-0.005	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9526 at 0.695 share (log5 0.0177 vs his 0.0290) + bullpen x0.8738 at 0.305 share (log5 0.0162 vs pen 0.0266) = x0.9286 \| starter alone would have been -0.003
STARTER Logan Henderson19.6235 BF	Starter	Hits	3.435 → 3.551	+0.116	0.2169	0.1902n=362 Very good	0.22399/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1966	-0.523	+0.139	-0.013 ok
		Strikeouts	5.329 → 4.858	-0.471	0.2212	0.2821n=362 Very good	0.20029/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2572	+1.195	-0.413	-0.076 ok
		Walks	1.320 → 1.496	+0.176	0.0889	0.0616n=362 Very good	0.10049/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0698	-0.536	+0.225	-0.064 ok
		Home runs	0.586 → 0.671	+0.085	0.0304	0.0341n=362 Below average	0.03489/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0390	+0.073	+0.087	+0.010 ok
RELIEVER JoJo Romero4.295 BF	Long Reliever	Hits	1.008 → 1.041	+0.033	0.2169	0.2159n=233 Average	0.22399/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2229	-0.004	+0.030	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.372 → 1.242	-0.130	0.2212	0.2259n=233 Average	0.20029/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2045	+0.020	-0.090	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.369 → 0.418	+0.048	0.0889	0.0794n=233 Average	0.10049/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0898	-0.041	+0.049	-0.005 ok
		Home runs	0.184 → 0.211	+0.027	0.0304	0.0303n=233 Average	0.03489/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0347	-0.001	+0.019	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER DL Hall3.4384 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.575 → 0.595	+0.020	0.2169	0.1738n=234 Very good	0.22399/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1798	-0.148	+0.024	-0.004 ok
		Strikeouts	1.152 → 1.047	-0.105	0.2212	0.2538n=234 Good	0.20029/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2306	+0.112	-0.072	-0.007 ok
		Walks	0.774 → 0.870	+0.096	0.0889	0.1226n=234 Poor	0.10049/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1378	+0.116	+0.039	+0.013 ok
		Home runs	0.078 → 0.089	+0.011	0.0304	0.0273n=234 Average	0.03489/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0313	-0.011	+0.015	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Antonio Senzatela3.3965 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	1.033 → 1.066	+0.033	0.2169	0.2274n=303 Below average	0.22399/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2347	+0.036	+0.024	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.760 → 0.686	-0.074	0.2212	0.1977n=303 Below average	0.20029/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1783	-0.080	-0.071	+0.006 ok
		Walks	0.412 → 0.466	+0.053	0.0889	0.0847n=303 Average	0.10049/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0957	-0.014	+0.039	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.059 → 0.068	+0.009	0.0304	0.0261n=303 Good	0.03489/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0299	-0.015	+0.015	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Abner Uribe2.5119 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.507 → 0.524	+0.017	0.2169	0.2018n=230 Good	0.22399/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2085	-0.038	+0.018	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.638 → 0.579	-0.058	0.2212	0.2538n=230 Good	0.20029/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2306	+0.082	-0.053	-0.005 ok
		Walks	0.207 → 0.234	+0.027	0.0889	0.0826n=230 Average	0.10049/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0933	-0.016	+0.029	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.061 → 0.070	+0.009	0.0304	0.0245n=230 Very good	0.03489/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0281	-0.015	+0.011	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Trevor Megill2.3459 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.454 → 0.469	+0.015	0.2169	0.1936n=242 Very good	0.22399/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2001	-0.055	+0.017	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.631 → 0.575	-0.057	0.2212	0.2692n=242 Good	0.20029/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2450	+0.113	-0.049	-0.007 ok
		Walks	0.170 → 0.193	+0.022	0.0889	0.0726n=242 Good	0.10049/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0822	-0.038	+0.027	-0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.050 → 0.057	+0.007	0.0304	0.0212n=242 Very good	0.03489/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0243	-0.022	+0.010	-0.003 ok
RELIEVER Aaron Ashby1.1607 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.235 → 0.243	+0.008	0.2169	0.2024n=372 Good	0.22399/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2091	-0.017	+0.008	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.333 → 0.304	-0.029	0.2212	0.2869n=372 Very good	0.20029/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2617	+0.076	-0.024	-0.005 ok
		Walks	0.121 → 0.136	+0.015	0.0889	0.1039n=372 Below average	0.10049/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1170	+0.017	+0.013	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.029 → 0.033	+0.004	0.0304	0.0251n=372 Good	0.03489/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0288	-0.006	+0.005	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Chad Patrick0.3321 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.066 → 0.068	+0.002	0.2169	0.1991n=438 Good	0.22399/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2058	-0.006	+0.002	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.071 → 0.064	-0.007	0.2212	0.2137n=438 Average	0.20029/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1932	-0.003	-0.007	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.035 → 0.039	+0.004	0.0889	0.1041n=438 Below average	0.10049/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1173	+0.005	+0.004	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.009 → 0.011	+0.001	0.0304	0.0278n=438 Average	0.03489/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0318	-0.001	+0.002	-0.000 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Starter	24.7	6.1	6.285	4 / 4.187	6 / 6.700	3 / 1.610	2 / 1.676	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	3.9	1.0	1.000	0 / 0.452	1 / 1.259	0 / 0.488	0 / 0.226	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	2.7	0.2	0.667	0 / 0.524	1 / 0.895	0 / 0.176	0 / 0.233	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.3	1.0	1.000	3 / 0.913	2 / 1.366	0 / 0.370	1 / 0.547	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Logan Henderson	Starter	19.6	5.0	4.956	5 / 3.435	5 / 5.329	3 / 1.320	4 / 1.524	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
JoJo Romero	Long Reliever	5.4	1.1	1.336	1 / 1.008	1 / 1.372	0 / 0.369	0 / 0.413	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.5	1.0	1.002	0 / 1.033	1 / 0.760	0 / 0.412	0 / 0.377	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
DL Hall	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	5.4	1.2	1.336	0 / 0.575	2 / 1.152	0 / 0.774	0 / 0.204	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity136 checks	PASS	136 of 136 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 6.2854
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Yoshinobu Yamamoto projected 24.7 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 4.9561
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Logan Henderson projected 19.6 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

Provenance. Read only from published artifacts and stored KPI value documents. Nothing is recomputed, so this document cannot disagree with what was published. Per-player metric adjustments are a measurement of the catalog at player level and are labelled as such throughout; the pipeline itself moved team runs, the win probability, and hitter lines by one club-wide ratio.