Odds intelligence 2026-10-11
What the sportsbook player-prop market says about this slate, how it moved our published player lines, and how much the market has been worth on settled games.
Prices from output/odds/20261011/snapshots/odds_20261011T203041Z_742525287cb3.csv, written 2026-10-11T20:00:18.396441+00:00.
Books: BetMGM, BetOnline, BetRivers, Bovada, DraftKings, Fanatics, FanDuel, MyBookie, Caesars.
Key takeaways
- The market expects less offense than our model: total bases 0.88×, runs 0.76×, rbi 0.65×, home runs 0.93× of our projection across the slate.
- The published player lines already include the market at the fitted weights below; score, winner and win probability are not changed by it.
- Largest disagreement: Garrett Mitchell, hits + runs + rbi over 0.5: market 54%, our model 84%.
- Best price against the other books: Enrique Hernandez hits + runs + rbi over 0.5 at -110 (BetMGM), fair 54.0%.
- Settled evidence so far: 2199 props over 6 date(s). A market needs 300 props over 10 dates for a verdict.
Market against our projection, by stat
| Stat | Players | Market ÷ our model | Our chance minus market's |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hits + runs + RBI | 14 | 0.63× | 19.4% |
| RBI | 14 | 0.65× | 9.0% |
| Runs | 14 | 0.76× | 7.5% |
| Total bases | 14 | 0.88× | 5.3% |
| Home runs | 14 | 0.93× | 0.8% |
| Singles | 14 | 0.95× | 1.8% |
| Hits | 16 | 0.98× | 3.4% |
| Doubles | 14 | 1.03× | -0.5% |
| Walks | 16 | 1.08× | -0.6% |
| Strikeouts | 2 | 1.13× | -12.9% |
| Outs | 2 | 1.16× | -20.6% |
| Earned runs | 2 | 1.38× | -14.8% |
| Triples | 1 | 2.23× | -2.6% |
Below 1.00× the market expects less than our model before odds. A shared gap across a whole slate is a calibration question before it is a player one.
Every priced player
| # | Player | Hits | Home runs | Runs | RBI | Total bases | Walks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mookie BettsLAD | 63%0.90model 0.79we publish 0.91 | 11%0.12model 0.15we publish 0.14 | 38%0.48model 0.48 | 26%0.34model 0.51we publish 0.37 | 60%1.55model 1.41we publish 1.52 | 36%0.42model 0.35we publish 0.41 |
| 2 | Freddie FreemanLAD | 56%0.75model 0.82we publish 0.80 | 9%0.10model 0.11 | 33%0.40model 0.48we publish 0.42 | 25%0.32model 0.44we publish 0.34 | 57%1.25model 1.34we publish 1.32 | 35%0.41model 0.43we publish 0.41 |
| 3 | Will SmithLAD | 57%0.76model 0.75we publish 0.79 | 13%0.13model 0.13 | 34%0.41model 0.45we publish 0.42 | 27%0.37model 0.48we publish 0.39 | 55%1.28model 1.30we publish 1.34 | 37%0.44model 0.40we publish 0.43 |
| 4 | Shohei OhtaniLAD | 51%0.66model 0.78we publish 0.72 | 17%0.18model 0.19 | 36%0.44model 0.55we publish 0.46 | 30%0.42model 0.53we publish 0.44 | 51%1.29model 1.53we publish 1.47 | 37%0.44model 0.52we publish 0.45 |
| 7 | Andy PagesLAD | 51%0.64model 0.72we publish 0.69 | 9%0.10model 0.12we publish 0.12 | 31%0.37model 0.53we publish 0.40 | 23%0.30model 0.51we publish 0.33 | 51%1.13model 1.25we publish 1.21 | 30%0.34model 0.30we publish 0.33 |
| 8 | Kyle TuckerLAD | 50%0.64model 0.67 | 10%0.11model 0.11 | 33%0.40model 0.54we publish 0.42 | 23%0.30model 0.43we publish 0.32 | 49%1.07model 1.16 | 34%0.40model 0.43we publish 0.40 |
| Tarik SkubalLAD | –4.51model 3.92we publish 4.24 | – | – | – | – | –1.48model 1.19we publish 1.35 | |
| 1 | Jackson ChourioMIL | 63%0.90model 1.07we publish 0.97 | 15%0.17model 0.16 | 40%0.51model 0.74we publish 0.55 | 29%0.40model 0.57we publish 0.43 | –1.62model 1.79we publish 1.68 | 32%0.36model 0.36we publish 0.36 |
| 2 | Brice TurangMIL | 58%0.78model 0.96we publish 0.84 | 7%0.07model 0.11we publish 0.10 | 33%0.40model 0.60we publish 0.43 | 22%0.28model 0.64we publish 0.33 | 58%1.23model 1.50we publish 1.37 | 31%0.36model 0.42we publish 0.37 |
| 3 | William ContrerasMIL | 58%0.80model 0.96we publish 0.85 | 12%0.12model 0.12 | 35%0.43model 0.55we publish 0.45 | 29%0.40model 0.56we publish 0.43 | 59%1.27model 1.53we publish 1.42 | 35%0.41model 0.38we publish 0.41 |
| 4 | Jake BauersMIL | 51%0.65model 0.86we publish 0.72 | 12%0.13model 0.14 | 31%0.38model 0.60we publish 0.41 | 26%0.34model 0.58we publish 0.38 | 49%1.05model 1.46we publish 1.31 | 33%0.38model 0.48we publish 0.40 |
| 6 | Garrett MitchellMIL | 49%0.62model 0.86we publish 0.70 | 7%0.08model 0.08 | 28%0.33model 0.57we publish 0.36 | 22%0.28model 0.47we publish 0.31 | 50%0.97model 1.31we publish 1.14 | 26%0.29model 0.33we publish 0.30 |
| 7 | Cooper PrattMIL | 52%0.67model 0.82we publish 0.73 | 7%0.07model 0.07 | 27%0.32model 0.38we publish 0.33 | 22%0.27model 0.45we publish 0.30 | 52%1.00model 1.22we publish 1.12 | 23%0.26model 0.32we publish 0.27 |
| 8 | Luis LaraMIL | 54%0.70model 0.81we publish 0.74 | 7%0.07model 0.07 | 28%0.33model 0.39we publish 0.34 | 22%0.28model 0.46we publish 0.31 | 51%0.98model 1.21we publish 1.14 | 27%0.30model 0.31 |
| 9 | Joey OrtizMIL | 51%0.65model 0.76we publish 0.69 | 8%0.08model 0.08 | 28%0.33model 0.37we publish 0.34 | 23%0.29model 0.39we publish 0.31 | 50%0.98model 1.17we publish 1.11 | 22%0.24model 0.29we publish 0.25 |
| Jacob MisiorowskiMIL | –3.56model 3.03we publish 3.32 | – | – | – | – | –1.84model 1.24we publish 1.56 |
Each cell: the market's chance of at least one (top), the expectation the market's price implies (bold; red below our model, green above), our model before odds, and the published value after the blend.
Largest disagreements
| Player | Prop | Market chance | Our model | Difference | Expectation: ours → market | Betting decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Mitchell | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 54% | 84% | 30% | 1.90 → 0.83 | pass |
| Jake Bauers | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 58% | 85% | 26% | 2.05 → 0.99 | pass |
| Andy Pages | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 56% | 79% | 24% | 1.75 → 0.93 | pass |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Pitcher outs over 16.5 | 52% | 29% | -23% | 14.58 → 17.24 | pass |
| Brice Turang | Hits + runs + RBI over 1.5 | 39% | 62% | 23% | 2.19 → 1.42 | pass |
| Cooper Pratt | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 57% | 80% | 23% | 1.65 → 0.90 | pass |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Pitcher earned runs over 1.5 | 41% | 19% | -22% | 0.79 → 1.40 | pass |
| Kyle Tucker | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 56% | 78% | 22% | 1.65 → 0.92 | pass |
| Luis Lara | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 59% | 80% | 21% | 1.67 → 0.94 | pass |
| Shohei Ohtani | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 58% | 79% | 21% | 1.87 → 1.06 | pass |
| Joey Ortiz | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 57% | 76% | 20% | 1.52 → 0.90 | pass |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Pitcher walks allowed over 1.5 | 55% | 35% | -20% | 1.24 → 1.84 | pass |
| Freddie Freeman | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 61% | 80% | 19% | 1.74 → 1.04 | pass |
| Jackson Chourio | Hits + runs + RBI over 1.5 | 46% | 65% | 19% | 2.38 → 1.68 | pass |
| Tarik Skubal | Pitcher outs over 17.5 | 60% | 42% | -18% | 17.27 → 19.62 | pass |
Disagreements are research signals. Every one is a pass until settled games show our model beats the market on that market.
Best prices between books
| Player | Prop | Best price | Book | Fair (other books) | Value vs fair | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enrique Hernandez | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | -110 | BetMGM | 54.0% | 3.1% | 4 |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Pitcher hits allowed over 3.5 | +115 | BetMGM | 47.9% | 3.0% | 3 |
| Jacob Misiorowski | Pitcher outs over 16.5 | -105 | BetMGM | 52.7% | 2.9% | 6 |
One book's price against the consensus of the others. Hypothetical value between books, not a model view and not a wager.
What the market has been worth
| Market | Props | Players | Games | Dates | Market log loss | Model log loss | Model − market | 95% interval (by game) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doubles | 189 | 105 | 12 | 6 | 0.319 | 0.309 | -0.009 | -0.020 to +0.001 no clear leader | needs 4 more dates and 111 more props |
| Hits | 196 | 105 | 12 | 6 | 0.656 | 0.664 | 0.008 | -0.027 to +0.040 no clear leader | needs 4 more dates and 104 more props |
| Hits + runs + RBI | 215 | 106 | 12 | 6 | 0.698 | 0.785 | 0.086 | +0.014 to +0.161 market ahead | needs 4 more dates and 85 more props |
| Home runs | 224 | 105 | 12 | 6 | 0.292 | 0.282 | -0.009 | -0.022 to +0.002 no clear leader | needs 4 more dates and 76 more props |
| RBI | 189 | 105 | 12 | 6 | 0.581 | 0.594 | 0.013 | -0.007 to +0.032 no clear leader | needs 4 more dates and 111 more props |
| Runs | 189 | 105 | 12 | 6 | 0.626 | 0.642 | 0.016 | -0.010 to +0.038 no clear leader | needs 4 more dates and 111 more props |
| Singles | 189 | 105 | 12 | 6 | 0.673 | 0.683 | 0.010 | -0.015 to +0.035 no clear leader | needs 4 more dates and 111 more props |
| Stolen bases | 172 | 98 | 12 | 6 | 0.269 | 0.266 | -0.003 | -0.026 to +0.024 no clear leader | needs 4 more dates and 128 more props |
| Total bases | 207 | 104 | 12 | 6 | 0.663 | 0.661 | -0.002 | -0.033 to +0.027 no clear leader | needs 4 more dates and 93 more props |
| Triples | 10 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 0.041 | 0.012 | -0.028 | -0.032 to -0.026 model ahead | needs 4 more dates and 290 more props |
| Walks | 183 | 103 | 12 | 6 | 0.592 | 0.607 | 0.015 | +0.001 to +0.030 market ahead | needs 4 more dates and 117 more props |
| Pitcher earned runs | 23 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 0.670 | 0.705 | 0.035 | -0.080 to +0.178 no clear leader | needs 5 more dates and 277 more props |
| Pitcher hits allowed | 28 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 0.672 | 0.669 | -0.003 | -0.125 to +0.162 no clear leader | needs 5 more dates and 272 more props |
| Pitcher outs | 40 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 0.671 | 0.820 | 0.149 | -0.002 to +0.340 no clear leader | needs 5 more dates and 260 more props |
| Pitcher strikeouts | 31 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 0.640 | 0.663 | 0.022 | -0.079 to +0.159 no clear leader | needs 5 more dates and 269 more props |
| Pitcher walks allowed | 21 | 17 | 11 | 5 | 0.597 | 0.670 | 0.073 | -0.088 to +0.261 no clear leader | needs 5 more dates and 279 more props |
Log loss scores each probability against what happened; lower is better, and a negative model − market means our model was more accurate. Props count only when both the market and our model priced them. The interval resamples whole games, because props in one game are not independent: one at-bat settles a hitter's hits, singles and total bases, and nine hitters face the same pitcher. With 4 games it is wide, which is why a verdict needs 300 props over 10 dates, not just 300 props.
Weights in force
How far each published stat moves toward the market: 0% keeps the model, 100% takes the market. Fitted on the settled props above.
Data quality and gaps
Full-game moneyline context in the team router decision profile, review_prediction_results and the deep slate diagnosis reads this file and reports unavailable for every game since. The event feed carries only inning-period markets (first 1/3/5/7), so it cannot refill it. Ask the odds source to add full-game h2h, totals and spreads.
Stolen bases have a market and no model expectation. A SB rate from sprint speed, attempt rate and catcher pop time is a self-contained new hitter metric with a market to measure it against.
Pull the feed at open, mid-day and near first pitch. Line movement and closing-line value against our early number are the strongest independent checks a single price cannot give.
One-sided rows are scaled by the market's median hold; a two-way price would remove the estimate.
Books post props for bench players before lineups are out. With confirmed lineups this is information; with projected lineups, rerun once they confirm.
Known (R-27). Anchoring hitter R and RBI to the club target was measured on 1,128 settled hitter-games and lost accuracy, so the lines are left unanchored; the market blend moves R and RBI toward the market instead.
Player audit
| Player | Check | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mookie Betts | market floor H | explained | market 63.2% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 37% to exactly that |
| Mookie Betts | market floor 1B | explained | market 50.6% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 49% to exactly that |
| Mookie Betts | market floor TB | explained | market 60.4% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 40% to exactly that |
| Freddie Freeman | market floor H | explained | market 56.0% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 44% to exactly that |
| Freddie Freeman | market floor HRR | explained | market 60.7% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 39% to exactly that |
| Freddie Freeman | market floor TB | explained | market 56.5% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 43% to exactly that |
| Shohei Ohtani | market floor H | explained | market 51.2% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 49% to exactly that |
| Shohei Ohtani | market floor HRR | explained | market 58.1% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 42% to exactly that |
| Shohei Ohtani | market floor TB | explained | market 51.0% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 49% to exactly that |
| Kyle Tucker | market floor H | explained | market 50.3% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 50% to exactly that |
| Kyle Tucker | market floor HRR | explained | market 56.0% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 44% to exactly that |
| Garrett Mitchell | market floor HRR | explained | market 54.1% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 46% to exactly that |
| Garrett Mitchell | market floor TB | explained | market 50.1% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 50% to exactly that |
| Luis Lara | market floor H | explained | market 53.7% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 46% to exactly that |
| Luis Lara | market floor TB | explained | market 51.3% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 49% to exactly that |
Every batter and starter is checked: box identities, rate line, the odds step's arithmetic and position, market floors and the play by play. Explained means the market and the single realized game differ for a reason the check names.
Reference
Book margins by market and by book
| Doubles | 5.9% |
| Stolen bases | 6.2% |
| Pitcher strikeouts | 6.5% |
| RBI | 6.8% |
| Hits + runs + RBI | 6.9% |
| Hits | 6.9% |
| Total bases | 7.0% |
| Pitcher walks allowed | 7.1% |
| Runs | 7.2% |
| Pitcher hits allowed | 7.3% |
| Pitcher earned runs | 7.4% |
| Singles | 7.5% |
| Walks | 7.5% |
| Pitcher outs | 7.5% |
| BetOnline | 6.4% |
| Bovada | 6.6% |
| FanDuel | 6.7% |
| BetMGM | 6.9% |
| DraftKings | 7.0% |
| Caesars | 7.2% |
| Fanatics | 8.0% |
| MyBookie | 8.0% |
The margin is what a book adds on top of a fair price; lower is a sharper book.