Odds impact on the published slate · 2026-10-11

For every priced player: the model line before the market blend, the expectation the cross-book no-vig price implies, the line we published, and how far the blend moved it. Published = model × m^w, where m prices the model at the market and w is fitted per stat on settled props strictly before this slate. Club score, winner and win probability are never moved by the blend. Generated 2026-10-11 23:39 UTC.

Games

1 with the blend applied

Players priced

151 player-stat lines

Lines moved

133

published differs from the model

Mean absolute move

0.113

per player-stat, in stat units

Per game

Game	Published score	Home win	Odds requested	Blend	Hitters moved	Starters moved	Reason
20261011_LAD@MIL	LAD 2 - 4 MIL	0.548	yes	applied	14	2

Blend weights in force

w = 0 keeps the model, w = 1 publishes the market. Each weight is shrunk toward 0.5 with strength 100 player-games, so a thin ledger stays near the prior.

Stat	Weight used	Evidence optimum	Settled rows	Dates	Source
batter:1B	0.827	1.000	189	6	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:2B	0.173	0.000	189	6	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:3B	0.455	0.000	10	6	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:BB	0.823	1.000	183	6	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:H	0.827	1.000	189	6	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:HR	0.174	0.000	188	6	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:R	0.827	1.000	189	6	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:RBI	0.807	0.970	189	6	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:SO	0.500	–	0	0	prior_only
pitcher:BB	0.587	1.000	21	5	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
pitcher:ER	0.541	0.730	22	5	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
pitcher:H	0.565	0.860	22	5	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
pitcher:OUTS	0.545	0.750	22	5	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
pitcher:SO	0.590	1.000	22	5	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior

Average movement by stat

Role	Stat	Lines	Model	Market implied	Published	Published minus model
batter	1B	14	0.538	0.509	0.481	-0.057
batter	2B	14	0.162	0.168	0.163	+0.001
batter	3B	1	0.021	0.048	0.021	+0.000
batter	BB	14	0.380	0.361	0.364	-0.017
batter	H	14	0.830	0.724	0.772	-0.058
batter	HR	14	0.117	0.108	0.116	-0.002
batter	HRR	14	1.850	1.168	1.541	-0.309
batter	R	14	0.517	0.396	0.414	-0.104
batter	RBI	14	0.502	0.327	0.355	-0.147
batter	SB	14	0.087	0.139	0.087	+0.000
batter	TB	14	1.370	1.196	1.308	-0.062
pitcher	BB	2	1.214	1.657	1.456	+0.242
pitcher	ER	2	1.115	1.535	1.319	+0.203
pitcher	H	2	3.476	4.034	3.781	+0.305
pitcher	OUTS	2	15.927	18.430	17.245	+1.318
pitcher	SO	2	6.390	7.336	6.933	+0.542

Every player and stat

Game	Club	Player	Stat	Model	Market implied	Market minus model	Published	Moved	Books
LAD@MIL	LAD	Andy Pages	1B	0.441	0.459	+0.018	0.421	-0.020	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Andy Pages	2B	0.141	0.144	+0.003	0.142	+0.000	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Andy Pages	BB	0.304	0.340	+0.036	0.333	+0.030	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Andy Pages	H	0.715	0.644	-0.071	0.691	-0.024	4
LAD@MIL	LAD	Andy Pages	HR	0.125	0.097	-0.028	0.120	-0.005	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Andy Pages	HRR	1.749	0.928	-0.820	1.419	-0.330	5
LAD@MIL	LAD	Andy Pages	R	0.527	0.374	-0.153	0.397	-0.130	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Andy Pages	RBI	0.507	0.300	-0.207	0.332	-0.175	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Andy Pages	SB	0.096	0.079	-0.017	0.096	+0.000	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Andy Pages	TB	1.248	1.133	-0.115	1.208	-0.040	4
LAD@MIL	LAD	Freddie Freeman	1B	0.520	0.541	+0.022	0.503	-0.016	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Freddie Freeman	2B	0.179	0.177	-0.002	0.178	-0.000	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Freddie Freeman	BB	0.435	0.407	-0.028	0.411	-0.023	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Freddie Freeman	H	0.817	0.753	-0.064	0.798	-0.019	4
LAD@MIL	LAD	Freddie Freeman	HR	0.110	0.097	-0.013	0.108	-0.002	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Freddie Freeman	HRR	1.742	1.038	-0.704	1.555	-0.187	4
LAD@MIL	LAD	Freddie Freeman	R	0.484	0.404	-0.081	0.417	-0.068	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Freddie Freeman	RBI	0.441	0.320	-0.120	0.341	-0.100	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Freddie Freeman	SB	0.045	0.067	+0.022	0.045	+0.000	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Freddie Freeman	TB	1.343	1.253	-0.090	1.316	-0.027	4
LAD@MIL	LAD	Kyle Tucker	1B	0.404	0.430	+0.026	0.402	-0.002	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Kyle Tucker	2B	0.148	0.155	+0.007	0.149	+0.001	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Kyle Tucker	BB	0.430	0.398	-0.032	0.404	-0.026	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Kyle Tucker	H	0.671	0.641	-0.029	0.670	-0.001	4
LAD@MIL	LAD	Kyle Tucker	HR	0.106	0.109	+0.003	0.106	+0.001	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Kyle Tucker	HRR	1.646	0.921	-0.724	1.411	-0.235	4
LAD@MIL	LAD	Kyle Tucker	R	0.542	0.398	-0.144	0.420	-0.122	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Kyle Tucker	RBI	0.433	0.298	-0.134	0.321	-0.112	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Kyle Tucker	SB	0.091	0.100	+0.010	0.091	+0.000	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Kyle Tucker	TB	1.162	1.073	-0.089	1.164	+0.002	4
LAD@MIL	LAD	Mookie Betts	1B	0.469	0.652	+0.183	0.586	+0.117	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Mookie Betts	2B	0.164	0.208	+0.044	0.171	+0.007	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Mookie Betts	BB	0.349	0.418	+0.070	0.405	+0.056	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Mookie Betts	H	0.789	0.895	+0.106	0.906	+0.117	4
LAD@MIL	LAD	Mookie Betts	HR	0.149	0.115	-0.034	0.143	-0.007	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Mookie Betts	HRR	1.785	1.711	-0.074	1.749	-0.036	5
LAD@MIL	LAD	Mookie Betts	R	0.481	0.477	-0.004	0.478	-0.003	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Mookie Betts	RBI	0.515	0.337	-0.178	0.366	-0.149	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Mookie Betts	SB	0.016	0.099	+0.083	0.016	+0.000	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Mookie Betts	TB	1.414	1.605	+0.191	1.518	+0.104	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Shohei Ohtani	1B	0.418	0.399	-0.019	0.363	-0.055	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Shohei Ohtani	2B	0.159	0.152	-0.007	0.158	-0.001	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Shohei Ohtani	BB	0.523	0.439	-0.084	0.453	-0.070	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Shohei Ohtani	H	0.779	0.664	-0.115	0.722	-0.057	4
LAD@MIL	LAD	Shohei Ohtani	HR	0.186	0.180	-0.006	0.185	-0.001	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Shohei Ohtani	HRR	1.866	1.057	-0.808	1.618	-0.248	5
LAD@MIL	LAD	Shohei Ohtani	R	0.552	0.441	-0.111	0.458	-0.094	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Shohei Ohtani	RBI	0.535	0.418	-0.117	0.438	-0.096	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Shohei Ohtani	SB	0.087	0.132	+0.045	0.087	+0.000	4
LAD@MIL	LAD	Shohei Ohtani	TB	1.528	1.295	-0.233	1.467	-0.062	5
LAD@MIL	LAD	Will Smith	1B	0.462	0.536	+0.074	0.495	+0.033	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Will Smith	2B	0.151	0.169	+0.018	0.154	+0.003	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Will Smith	BB	0.400	0.438	+0.038	0.431	+0.031	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Will Smith	H	0.748	0.761	+0.012	0.785	+0.037	4
LAD@MIL	LAD	Will Smith	HR	0.128	0.133	+0.006	0.129	+0.001	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Will Smith	HRR	1.674	1.520	-0.154	1.594	-0.081	5
LAD@MIL	LAD	Will Smith	R	0.446	0.414	-0.032	0.420	-0.026	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Will Smith	RBI	0.480	0.370	-0.110	0.389	-0.091	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Will Smith	SB	0.000	–	–	0.000	+0.000	1
LAD@MIL	LAD	Will Smith	TB	1.297	1.279	-0.019	1.340	+0.043	4
LAD@MIL	LAD	Tarik Skubal	BB	1.186	1.476	+0.290	1.349	+0.162	2
LAD@MIL	LAD	Tarik Skubal	ER	1.444	1.669	+0.224	1.562	+0.118	3
LAD@MIL	LAD	Tarik Skubal	H	3.924	4.507	+0.583	4.243	+0.319	4
LAD@MIL	LAD	Tarik Skubal	OUTS	17.271	19.621	+2.350	18.515	+1.244	7
LAD@MIL	LAD	Tarik Skubal	SO	6.300	7.241	+0.941	6.839	+0.540	6
LAD@MIL	MIL	Brice Turang	1B	0.651	0.572	-0.078	0.548	-0.102	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Brice Turang	2B	0.173	0.172	-0.002	0.173	-0.000	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Brice Turang	BB	0.424	0.356	-0.068	0.367	-0.057	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Brice Turang	H	0.955	0.779	-0.176	0.844	-0.111	4
LAD@MIL	MIL	Brice Turang	HR	0.113	0.071	-0.042	0.104	-0.009	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Brice Turang	HRR	2.194	1.423	-0.771	1.601	-0.593	6
LAD@MIL	MIL	Brice Turang	R	0.602	0.398	-0.203	0.428	-0.174	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Brice Turang	RBI	0.637	0.281	-0.356	0.329	-0.308	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Brice Turang	SB	0.126	0.198	+0.072	0.126	+0.000	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Brice Turang	TB	1.504	1.230	-0.274	1.367	-0.138	4
LAD@MIL	MIL	Cooper Pratt	1B	0.587	0.509	-0.077	0.490	-0.097	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Cooper Pratt	2B	0.146	0.158	+0.011	0.148	+0.002	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Cooper Pratt	BB	0.318	0.258	-0.060	0.268	-0.050	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Cooper Pratt	H	0.821	0.669	-0.152	0.726	-0.095	4
LAD@MIL	MIL	Cooper Pratt	HR	0.073	0.071	-0.002	0.073	-0.000	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Cooper Pratt	HRR	1.652	0.903	-0.750	1.353	-0.299	4
LAD@MIL	MIL	Cooper Pratt	R	0.383	0.320	-0.063	0.330	-0.053	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Cooper Pratt	RBI	0.448	0.270	-0.178	0.297	-0.151	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Cooper Pratt	SB	0.257	0.223	-0.034	0.257	+0.000	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Cooper Pratt	TB	1.217	0.997	-0.220	1.122	-0.095	4
LAD@MIL	MIL	Garrett Mitchell	1B	0.596	0.447	-0.148	0.433	-0.163	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Garrett Mitchell	2B	0.164	0.147	-0.017	0.161	-0.003	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Garrett Mitchell	3B	0.021	0.048	+0.026	0.021	+0.000	1
LAD@MIL	MIL	Garrett Mitchell	BB	0.326	0.293	-0.033	0.299	-0.027	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Garrett Mitchell	H	0.862	0.623	-0.239	0.695	-0.166	4
LAD@MIL	MIL	Garrett Mitchell	HR	0.081	0.076	-0.005	0.080	-0.001	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Garrett Mitchell	HRR	1.903	0.830	-1.073	1.365	-0.539	4
LAD@MIL	MIL	Garrett Mitchell	R	0.568	0.331	-0.237	0.364	-0.204	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Garrett Mitchell	RBI	0.474	0.275	-0.199	0.305	-0.168	4
LAD@MIL	MIL	Garrett Mitchell	SB	0.106	0.171	+0.064	0.106	+0.000	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Garrett Mitchell	TB	1.311	0.972	-0.339	1.139	-0.172	4
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jackson Chourio	1B	0.684	0.606	-0.078	0.582	-0.102	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jackson Chourio	2B	0.215	0.206	-0.009	0.213	-0.002	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jackson Chourio	BB	0.357	0.364	+0.007	0.363	+0.006	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jackson Chourio	H	1.070	0.902	-0.168	0.966	-0.104	4
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jackson Chourio	HR	0.163	0.159	-0.003	0.162	-0.000	1
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jackson Chourio	HRR	2.376	1.680	-0.696	1.940	-0.436	5
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jackson Chourio	R	0.741	0.512	-0.229	0.546	-0.195	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jackson Chourio	RBI	0.565	0.400	-0.165	0.428	-0.137	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jackson Chourio	SB	0.178	0.203	+0.025	0.178	+0.000	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jackson Chourio	TB	1.789	1.624	-0.165	1.684	-0.105	6
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jake Bauers	1B	0.563	0.436	-0.126	0.422	-0.141	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jake Bauers	2B	0.143	0.155	+0.012	0.145	+0.002	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jake Bauers	BB	0.477	0.382	-0.094	0.398	-0.079	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jake Bauers	H	0.861	0.653	-0.208	0.719	-0.142	4
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jake Bauers	HR	0.142	0.127	-0.015	0.139	-0.003	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jake Bauers	HRR	2.050	0.991	-1.059	1.509	-0.541	5
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jake Bauers	R	0.604	0.378	-0.226	0.410	-0.194	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jake Bauers	RBI	0.585	0.342	-0.242	0.379	-0.205	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jake Bauers	SB	0.078	0.095	+0.018	0.078	+0.000	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jake Bauers	TB	1.457	1.050	-0.407	1.309	-0.148	4
LAD@MIL	MIL	Joey Ortiz	1B	0.520	0.475	-0.045	0.456	-0.064	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Joey Ortiz	2B	0.136	0.148	+0.012	0.138	+0.002	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Joey Ortiz	BB	0.295	0.241	-0.054	0.250	-0.045	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Joey Ortiz	H	0.756	0.649	-0.107	0.693	-0.063	4
LAD@MIL	MIL	Joey Ortiz	HR	0.083	0.079	-0.004	0.082	-0.001	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Joey Ortiz	HRR	1.516	0.903	-0.612	1.337	-0.178	4
LAD@MIL	MIL	Joey Ortiz	R	0.368	0.331	-0.036	0.338	-0.030	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Joey Ortiz	RBI	0.392	0.289	-0.103	0.307	-0.085	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Joey Ortiz	SB	0.076	0.129	+0.053	0.076	+0.000	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Joey Ortiz	TB	1.173	0.982	-0.191	1.110	-0.063	4
LAD@MIL	MIL	Luis Lara	1B	0.571	0.515	-0.056	0.499	-0.072	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Luis Lara	2B	0.158	0.167	+0.009	0.159	+0.002	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Luis Lara	BB	0.307	0.302	-0.006	0.303	-0.005	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Luis Lara	H	0.814	0.700	-0.114	0.744	-0.070	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Luis Lara	HR	0.069	0.069	-0.001	0.069	+0.000	1
LAD@MIL	MIL	Luis Lara	HRR	1.669	0.945	-0.724	1.389	-0.280	5
LAD@MIL	MIL	Luis Lara	R	0.394	0.327	-0.067	0.338	-0.057	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Luis Lara	RBI	0.461	0.280	-0.181	0.308	-0.153	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Luis Lara	SB	0.054	0.176	+0.123	0.054	+0.000	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Luis Lara	TB	1.211	0.979	-0.232	1.143	-0.069	4
LAD@MIL	MIL	William Contreras	1B	0.644	0.549	-0.096	0.533	-0.111	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	William Contreras	2B	0.193	0.193	-0.000	0.193	+0.000	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	William Contreras	BB	0.381	0.412	+0.031	0.407	+0.025	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	William Contreras	H	0.964	0.796	-0.168	0.854	-0.110	4
LAD@MIL	MIL	William Contreras	HR	0.117	0.123	+0.006	0.118	+0.001	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	William Contreras	HRR	2.072	1.493	-0.579	1.735	-0.338	5
LAD@MIL	MIL	William Contreras	R	0.551	0.435	-0.117	0.453	-0.098	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	William Contreras	RBI	0.557	0.402	-0.155	0.428	-0.129	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	William Contreras	SB	0.007	–	–	0.007	+0.000	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	William Contreras	TB	1.527	1.273	-0.254	1.420	-0.107	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jacob Misiorowski	BB	1.242	1.838	+0.596	1.563	+0.321	2
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jacob Misiorowski	ER	0.786	1.402	+0.615	1.075	+0.289	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jacob Misiorowski	H	3.028	3.562	+0.534	3.319	+0.291	3
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jacob Misiorowski	OUTS	14.583	17.240	+2.657	15.976	+1.393	7
LAD@MIL	MIL	Jacob Misiorowski	SO	6.481	7.431	+0.950	7.026	+0.545	5