MLB Prediction System

Metric Evolution & Audit

Every number that moved, the stage that moved it, the input it used, and the arithmetic that proves it

Slate 20261010Games 1Checks 154Schema metric_evolution_report_v1Built 2026-10-11 09:12Z

Verdict across the slate

154 invariants checked across 1 games: 1 OF 154 CHECKS FAILED

away staff totals a regulation workload: 25 outs recorded, 24 expected

How to read this, and what a defect looks like

Every figure below is shown with the arithmetic that produced it and a verdict beside it, so a disagreement can be pointed at a specific line rather than at the system as a whole.

Stage chain. Each game lists every stage that touched the score, the score after it, and whether it changed the target. Most stages move nothing on most games; a chain that showed only movement would misrepresent it. A stage reporting a delta while changed_target is false computed an adjustment and did not apply it, which is normal and is stated.
Blend arithmetic. The KPI blend must satisfy blended = baseline + weight x (kpi_only - baseline) for all three targets. A FAIL here means the layer reported a number it did not compute.
Rounding. Published integers must be the rounding of the blended runs under the documented tie rule. A FAIL means the published score and the continuous line describe different games.
Log5 additivity. For every player metric, own skill plus opponent plus the Log5 remainder must equal the total against the league, exactly. A FAIL means the decomposition is not a decomposition.
Direction. A green delta helps the subject, a red one hurts him. Strikeouts invert for a hitter. If an elite arm's opponent shows green strikeouts, the orientation is wrong and the whole player section is suspect.
Measured versus published. The KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The per-player metric adjustments here are a measurement of the same catalog at player level, not what the pipeline published; the one club-wide ratio the pipeline actually applied to hitter lines is printed beside them.
Integer versus continuous. The integer player line is a simulation draw reconciled to the box score. The continuous expected_* beside it is the model's own view and is the rankable quantity. Judging the model by the integer is how a working model looks broken.

Slate overview

Game	Published	p(home)	Stages	Stages that moved it	KPI applied	Δ away runs	Δ home runs	Simulation draw chosen on	0-out starter
20261010_CHW@CLE	5 - 6	0.5268	8	2	no	-0.6051	-0.4448	-	no

KPI model in force. candidate 20261011T091221Z_bb8e6dd2, 48 features built from 40 registered KPIs, blend weights {"home_runs": 0.38, "away_runs": 0.34, "home_win": 0.0}, frozen evaluation ends 2026-09-27. A target whose weight is zero contributes nothing by construction: the winner probability carries weight zero while its walk-forward verdict is inconclusive, so every win-probability movement below is expected to be exactly zero.

Per game

20261010_CHW@CLE — published 5-6, 154 checks, 1 failed

Artifact. 20261010_CHW@CLE__20261011T023927Z.json, phase post_start_rerun, generated 2026-10-11T02:39:27, first pitch 2026-10-11T00:00:00.
Published 5 - 6 with p(home) 0.526845. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; ? of ? draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	4.082329953276532 - 4.859910801686279	0	0	0	0	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 5	-0.0823	+0.1401	-0.0823	+0.1401	yes	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	5 - 6	+1.0000	+1.0000	+0.9177	+1.1401	yes	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `kpi_layer`	5.0 - 6.0	0	0	+0.9177	+1.1401	no	away -0.6051; home -0.4448 Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept
5. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	5 - 6	0	0	+0.9177	+1.1401	no	away -0.2541; home -0.1094 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	5 - 6	0	0	+0.9177	+1.1401	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
7. `capped_target`	5 - 6	0	0	+0.9177	+1.1401	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8. `simulation_result`	5 - 6	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

A stage reporting its own adjustment while Changed target reads no computed a movement that a later reconciliation absorbed, or that rounded away at the integer score. That is recorded rather than hidden.

KPI layer withheld. values_fresh. The published score is the pre-KPI baseline.

Per-player metric movement

CHW against Bryan Hudson (LHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CHW hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 20.5131 of 37.35 projected batters (54.9%) and the 5 projected relievers for the remaining 45.1%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Sam Antonacci	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.854 → 0.799	-0.055	0.2169	0.2300n=553 Good	0.1978n=721 Good	0.2101	+0.055	-0.079	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9134 at 0.549 share (log5 0.2101 vs his 0.1978) + bullpen x0.9618 at 0.451 share (log5 0.2213 vs pen 0.2085) = x0.9352 \| starter alone would have been -0.074
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.834 → 1.095	+0.261	0.2212	0.1525n=553 Good	0.3179n=721 Very good	0.2280	-0.286	+0.403	-0.088 ok
		split	starter x1.495 at 0.549 share (log5 0.2280 vs his 0.3179) + bullpen x1.0904 at 0.451 share (log5 0.1663 vs pen 0.2395) = x1.3126 \| starter alone would have been +0.413
		Walkswhole staff	0.357 → 0.372	+0.015	0.0889	0.0797n=553 Average	0.0854n=721 Average	0.0765	-0.038	-0.015	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9598 at 0.549 share (log5 0.0765 vs his 0.0854) + bullpen x1.1398 at 0.451 share (log5 0.0909 vs pen 0.1012) = x1.0409 \| starter alone would have been -0.014
		Home runswhole staff	0.067 → 0.069	+0.002	0.0304	0.0196n=553 Poor	0.0330n=721 Below average	0.0213	-0.045	+0.011	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0881 at 0.549 share (log5 0.0213 vs his 0.0330) + bullpen x0.9502 at 0.451 share (log5 0.0186 vs pen 0.0289) = x1.0259 \| starter alone would have been +0.006
Kyle Teel	C	Hitswhole staff	0.742 → 0.693	-0.049	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1978n=721 Good	0.1978	0	-0.078	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9121 at 0.549 share (log5 0.1978 vs his 0.1978) + bullpen x0.9612 at 0.451 share (log5 0.2085 vs pen 0.2085) = x0.9342 \| starter alone would have been -0.065
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.813 → 2.316	+0.503	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.3179n=721 Very good	0.3179	0	+0.397	0 ok
		split	starter x1.4373 at 0.549 share (log5 0.3179 vs his 0.3179) + bullpen x1.0825 at 0.451 share (log5 0.2395 vs pen 0.2395) = x1.2774 \| starter alone would have been +0.793
		Walkswhole staff	0.440 → 0.458	+0.018	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0854n=721 Average	0.0854	0	-0.015	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9601 at 0.549 share (log5 0.0854 vs his 0.0854) + bullpen x1.1382 at 0.451 share (log5 0.1012 vs pen 0.1012) = x1.0404 \| starter alone would have been -0.018
		Home runswhole staff	0.104 → 0.107	+0.003	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0330n=721 Below average	0.0330	0	+0.011	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0871 at 0.549 share (log5 0.0330 vs his 0.0330) + bullpen x0.9507 at 0.451 share (log5 0.0289 vs pen 0.0289) = x1.0256 \| starter alone would have been +0.009
Miguel Vargas	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.837 → 0.782	-0.055	0.2169	0.2136n=695 Average	0.1978n=721 Good	0.1947	-0.014	-0.080	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9117 at 0.549 share (log5 0.1947 vs his 0.1978) + bullpen x0.961 at 0.451 share (log5 0.2053 vs pen 0.2085) = x0.9339 \| starter alone would have been -0.074
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.965 → 1.252	+0.286	0.2212	0.1826n=695 Good	0.3179n=721 Very good	0.2682	-0.161	+0.404	-0.046 ok
		split	starter x1.4692 at 0.549 share (log5 0.2682 vs his 0.3179) + bullpen x1.087 at 0.451 share (log5 0.1984 vs pen 0.2395) = x1.2969 \| starter alone would have been +0.453
		Walkswhole staff	0.555 → 0.577	+0.021	0.0889	0.1346n=695 Very good	0.0854n=721 Average	0.1295	+0.191	-0.015	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.9621 at 0.549 share (log5 0.1295 vs his 0.0854) + bullpen x1.1304 at 0.451 share (log5 0.1522 vs pen 0.1012) = x1.038 \| starter alone would have been -0.021
		Home runswhole staff	0.157 → 0.161	+0.004	0.0304	0.0428n=695 Very good	0.0330n=721 Below average	0.0464	+0.052	+0.011	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0859 at 0.549 share (log5 0.0464 vs his 0.0330) + bullpen x0.9513 at 0.451 share (log5 0.0407 vs pen 0.0289) = x1.0252 \| starter alone would have been +0.013
Munetaka Murakami	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.747 → 0.696	-0.051	0.2169	0.1915n=544 Poor	0.1978n=721 Good	0.1742	-0.112	-0.084	+0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.9095 at 0.549 share (log5 0.1742 vs his 0.1978) + bullpen x0.96 at 0.451 share (log5 0.1838 vs pen 0.2085) = x0.9323 \| starter alone would have been -0.068
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.885 → 2.300	+0.415	0.2212	0.3438n=544 Poor	0.3179n=721 Very good	0.4623	+0.539	+0.425	+0.096 ok
		split	starter x1.3447 at 0.549 share (log5 0.4623 vs his 0.3179) + bullpen x1.0686 at 0.451 share (log5 0.3674 vs pen 0.2395) = x1.2202 \| starter alone would have been +0.650
		Walkswhole staff	0.662 → 0.687	+0.025	0.0889	0.1532n=544 Very good	0.0854n=721 Average	0.1475	+0.283	-0.016	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.9629 at 0.549 share (log5 0.1475 vs his 0.0854) + bullpen x1.1272 at 0.451 share (log5 0.1727 vs pen 0.1012) = x1.037 \| starter alone would have been -0.025
		Home runswhole staff	0.214 → 0.219	+0.005	0.0304	0.0532n=544 Very good	0.0330n=721 Below average	0.0578	+0.101	+0.012	+0.008 ok
		split	starter x1.0848 at 0.549 share (log5 0.0578 vs his 0.0330) + bullpen x0.9518 at 0.451 share (log5 0.0507 vs pen 0.0289) = x1.0248 \| starter alone would have been +0.018
Andrew Benintendi	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.722 → 0.674	-0.048	0.2169	0.2160n=460 Average	0.1978n=721 Good	0.1970	-0.003	-0.066	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.912 at 0.549 share (log5 0.1970 vs his 0.1978) + bullpen x0.9612 at 0.451 share (log5 0.2076 vs pen 0.2085) = x0.9342 \| starter alone would have been -0.064
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.034 → 1.314	+0.280	0.2212	0.2354n=460 Average	0.3179n=721 Very good	0.3357	+0.049	+0.332	+0.012 ok
		split	starter x1.4259 at 0.549 share (log5 0.3357 vs his 0.3179) + bullpen x1.0809 at 0.451 share (log5 0.2545 vs pen 0.2395) = x1.2704 \| starter alone would have been +0.441
		Walkswhole staff	0.318 → 0.331	+0.013	0.0889	0.0856n=460 Average	0.0854n=721 Average	0.0822	-0.011	-0.012	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.96 at 0.549 share (log5 0.0822 vs his 0.0854) + bullpen x1.1388 at 0.451 share (log5 0.0975 vs pen 0.1012) = x1.0406 \| starter alone would have been -0.013
		Home runswhole staff	0.090 → 0.092	+0.002	0.0304	0.0318n=460 Average	0.0330n=721 Below average	0.0346	+0.005	+0.009	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0869 at 0.549 share (log5 0.0346 vs his 0.0330) + bullpen x0.9508 at 0.451 share (log5 0.0302 vs pen 0.0289) = x1.0255 \| starter alone would have been +0.008
Tristan Peters	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.787 → 0.736	-0.051	0.2169	0.2266n=484 Good	0.1978n=721 Good	0.2069	+0.037	-0.072	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9131 at 0.549 share (log5 0.2069 vs his 0.1978) + bullpen x0.9617 at 0.451 share (log5 0.2180 vs pen 0.2085) = x0.935 \| starter alone would have been -0.068
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.962 → 1.248	+0.285	0.2212	0.1835n=484 Good	0.3179n=721 Very good	0.2695	-0.141	+0.363	-0.041 ok
		split	starter x1.4684 at 0.549 share (log5 0.2695 vs his 0.3179) + bullpen x1.0868 at 0.451 share (log5 0.1995 vs pen 0.2395) = x1.2964 \| starter alone would have been +0.451
		Walkswhole staff	0.309 → 0.322	+0.013	0.0889	0.0789n=484 Average	0.0854n=721 Average	0.0757	-0.038	-0.013	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9597 at 0.549 share (log5 0.0757 vs his 0.0854) + bullpen x1.14 at 0.451 share (log5 0.0900 vs pen 0.1012) = x1.041 \| starter alone would have been -0.013
		Home runswhole staff	0.085 → 0.087	+0.002	0.0304	0.0268n=484 Average	0.0330n=721 Below average	0.0291	-0.014	+0.010	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0874 at 0.549 share (log5 0.0291 vs his 0.0330) + bullpen x0.9506 at 0.451 share (log5 0.0254 vs pen 0.0289) = x1.0257 \| starter alone would have been +0.007
Chase Meidroth	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.848 → 0.793	-0.055	0.2169	0.2330n=635 Good	0.1978n=721 Good	0.2129	+0.062	-0.074	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9137 at 0.549 share (log5 0.2129 vs his 0.1978) + bullpen x0.962 at 0.451 share (log5 0.2241 vs pen 0.2085) = x0.9355 \| starter alone would have been -0.073
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.106 → 1.415	+0.309	0.2212	0.2176n=635 Average	0.3179n=721 Very good	0.3134	-0.014	+0.373	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.4403 at 0.549 share (log5 0.3134 vs his 0.3179) + bullpen x1.0829 at 0.451 share (log5 0.2356 vs pen 0.2395) = x1.2792 \| starter alone would have been +0.487
		Walkswhole staff	0.355 → 0.370	+0.014	0.0889	0.0936n=635 Average	0.0854n=721 Average	0.0899	+0.018	-0.014	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9603 at 0.549 share (log5 0.0899 vs his 0.0854) + bullpen x1.1374 at 0.451 share (log5 0.1065 vs pen 0.1012) = x1.0401 \| starter alone would have been -0.014
		Home runswhole staff	0.089 → 0.091	+0.002	0.0304	0.0267n=635 Average	0.0330n=721 Below average	0.0291	-0.014	+0.010	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0874 at 0.549 share (log5 0.0291 vs his 0.0330) + bullpen x0.9506 at 0.451 share (log5 0.0254 vs pen 0.0289) = x1.0257 \| starter alone would have been +0.008
Colson Montgomery	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.614 → 0.572	-0.042	0.2169	0.1929n=630 Poor	0.1978n=721 Good	0.1755	-0.085	-0.068	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.9096 at 0.549 share (log5 0.1755 vs his 0.1978) + bullpen x0.9601 at 0.451 share (log5 0.1852 vs pen 0.2085) = x0.9324 \| starter alone would have been -0.056
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.709 → 2.083	+0.375	0.2212	0.3459n=630 Poor	0.3179n=721 Very good	0.4647	+0.443	+0.344	+0.078 ok
		split	starter x1.3433 at 0.549 share (log5 0.4647 vs his 0.3179) + bullpen x1.0684 at 0.451 share (log5 0.3696 vs pen 0.2395) = x1.2194 \| starter alone would have been +0.587
		Walkswhole staff	0.324 → 0.337	+0.013	0.0889	0.0836n=630 Average	0.0854n=721 Average	0.0802	-0.019	-0.013	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9599 at 0.549 share (log5 0.0802 vs his 0.0854) + bullpen x1.1392 at 0.451 share (log5 0.0952 vs pen 0.1012) = x1.0407 \| starter alone would have been -0.013
		Home runswhole staff	0.132 → 0.135	+0.003	0.0304	0.0436n=630 Very good	0.0330n=721 Below average	0.0474	+0.047	+0.009	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0858 at 0.549 share (log5 0.0474 vs his 0.0330) + bullpen x0.9514 at 0.451 share (log5 0.0415 vs pen 0.0289) = x1.0252 \| starter alone would have been +0.011
Brenton Doyle	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.741 → 0.692	-0.049	0.2169	0.2195n=218 Average	0.1978n=721 Good	0.2002	+0.009	-0.067	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9123 at 0.549 share (log5 0.2002 vs his 0.1978) + bullpen x0.9613 at 0.451 share (log5 0.2110 vs pen 0.2085) = x0.9344 \| starter alone would have been -0.065
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.466 → 1.815	+0.350	0.2212	0.3029n=218 Poor	0.3179n=721 Very good	0.4162	+0.288	+0.341	+0.059 ok
		split	starter x1.3743 at 0.549 share (log5 0.4162 vs his 0.3179) + bullpen x1.0732 at 0.451 share (log5 0.3250 vs pen 0.2395) = x1.2386 \| starter alone would have been +0.549
		Walkswhole staff	0.233 → 0.243	+0.010	0.0889	0.0670n=218 Below average	0.0854n=721 Average	0.0643	-0.077	-0.013	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9592 at 0.549 share (log5 0.0643 vs his 0.0854) + bullpen x1.142 at 0.451 share (log5 0.0765 vs pen 0.1012) = x1.0416 \| starter alone would have been -0.009
		Home runswhole staff	0.092 → 0.095	+0.002	0.0304	0.0291n=218 Average	0.0330n=721 Below average	0.0316	-0.005	+0.009	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0872 at 0.549 share (log5 0.0316 vs his 0.0330) + bullpen x0.9507 at 0.451 share (log5 0.0277 vs pen 0.0289) = x1.0257 \| starter alone would have been +0.008
STARTER Sean Burke19.7518 BF	Starter	Hits	4.216 → 4.266	+0.050	0.2169	0.2062n=694 Good	0.21948/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2087	-0.210	+0.050	-0.002 ok
		Strikeouts	5.087 → 4.321	-0.767	0.2212	0.2528n=694 Good	0.18678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2147	+0.625	-0.682	-0.071 ok
		Walks	1.868 → 1.969	+0.101	0.0889	0.0893n=694 Average	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0941	+0.007	+0.095	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.706 → 0.644	-0.062	0.0304	0.0286n=694 Average	0.02778/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0260	-0.036	-0.053	+0.003 ok
RELIEVER Sean Newcomb3.3107 BF	Long Reliever	Hits	1.030 → 1.042	+0.012	0.2169	0.2048n=369 Good	0.21948/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2072	-0.040	+0.008	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.246 → 1.052	-0.193	0.2212	0.2265n=369 Average	0.18678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1913	+0.018	-0.114	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.435 → 0.459	+0.024	0.0889	0.0912n=369 Average	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0961	+0.007	+0.016	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.097 → 0.088	-0.009	0.0304	0.0215n=369 Very good	0.02778/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0196	-0.029	-0.009	+0.003 ok
RELIEVER David Sandlin2.9094 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.630 → 0.637	+0.007	0.2169	0.2164n=167 Average	0.21948/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2189	-0.001	+0.007	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.680 → 0.575	-0.105	0.2212	0.2336n=167 Average	0.18678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1976	+0.036	-0.101	-0.004 ok
		Walks	0.242 → 0.255	+0.013	0.0889	0.0832n=167 Average	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0878	-0.017	+0.014	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.098 → 0.089	-0.009	0.0304	0.0335n=167 Below average	0.02778/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0306	+0.009	-0.008	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Grant Taylor2.697 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.532 → 0.539	+0.006	0.2169	0.1974n=333 Good	0.21948/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1997	-0.052	+0.007	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.801 → 0.686	-0.115	0.2212	0.2970n=333 Very good	0.18678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2545	+0.204	-0.093	-0.021 ok
		Walks	0.242 → 0.255	+0.013	0.0889	0.0897n=333 Average	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0946	+0.002	+0.013	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.071 → 0.065	-0.006	0.0304	0.0264n=333 Good	0.02778/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0241	-0.011	-0.007	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Anthony Kay2.1305 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.478 → 0.483	+0.005	0.2169	0.2242n=686 Below average	0.21948/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2268	+0.016	+0.005	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.391 → 0.328	-0.064	0.2212	0.1837n=686 Below average	0.18678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1539	-0.080	-0.074	+0.010 ok
		Walks	0.174 → 0.184	+0.009	0.0889	0.0818n=686 Average	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0863	-0.015	+0.010	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.065 → 0.059	-0.006	0.0304	0.0305n=686 Average	0.02778/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0278	+0.000	-0.006	0 ok
RELIEVER Jordan Hicks1.7828 BF	Middle Reliever	Hits	0.912 → 0.923	+0.011	0.2169	0.2054n=216 Good	0.21948/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2078	-0.020	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.223 → 1.044	-0.179	0.2212	0.2760n=216 Good	0.18678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2355	+0.098	-0.062	-0.011 ok
		Walks	0.602 → 0.633	+0.031	0.0889	0.1258n=216 Poor	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1324	+0.066	+0.009	+0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.098 → 0.089	-0.009	0.0304	0.0265n=216 Good	0.02778/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0242	-0.007	-0.005	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Noah Schultz1.5405 BF	Long Reliever	Hits	1.538 → 1.556	+0.018	0.2169	0.2132n=324 Average	0.21948/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2157	-0.006	+0.004	0 ok
		Strikeouts	1.623 → 1.367	-0.257	0.2212	0.2097n=324 Average	0.18678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1765	-0.018	-0.053	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.350 → 0.369	+0.019	0.0889	0.0935n=324 Average	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0985	+0.007	+0.007	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.134 → 0.122	-0.012	0.0304	0.0319n=324 Average	0.02778/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0291	+0.002	-0.004	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Bryan Hudson1.3627 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.312 → 0.315	+0.004	0.2169	0.2287n=282 Below average	0.21948/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2314	+0.016	+0.003	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.289 → 0.243	-0.045	0.2212	0.2119n=282 Average	0.18678/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1785	-0.013	-0.047	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.099 → 0.105	+0.005	0.0889	0.0728n=282 Good	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0768	-0.022	+0.007	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.035 → 0.032	-0.003	0.0304	0.0255n=282 Good	0.02778/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0232	-0.007	-0.004	+0.001 ok

CLE against Hunter Gaddis (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CLE hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 19.7518 of 35.487 projected batters (55.7%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 44.3%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Steven Kwan	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.934 → 0.898	-0.036	0.2169	0.2296n=620 Good	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2186	+0.057	-0.048	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9517 at 0.557 share (log5 0.2186 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x0.9746 at 0.443 share (log5 0.2238 vs pen 0.2113) = x0.9619 \| starter alone would have been -0.045
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.504 → 0.570	+0.066	0.2212	0.1013n=620 Very good	0.2528n=694 Good	0.1184	-0.538	+0.142	-0.065 ok
		split	starter x1.1687 at 0.557 share (log5 0.1184 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x1.0822 at 0.443 share (log5 0.1097 vs pen 0.2368) = x1.1303 \| starter alone would have been +0.085
		Walkswhole staff	0.586 → 0.593	+0.006	0.0889	0.1280n=620 Very good	0.0893n=694 Average	0.1284	+0.175	+0.002	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0036 at 0.557 share (log5 0.1284 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x1.0196 at 0.443 share (log5 0.1305 vs pen 0.0907) = x1.0107 \| starter alone would have been +0.002
		Home runswhole staff	0.047 → 0.044	-0.004	0.0304	0.0125n=620 Poor	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0117	-0.081	-0.008	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.9387 at 0.557 share (log5 0.0117 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9109 at 0.443 share (log5 0.0114 vs pen 0.0277) = x0.9264 \| starter alone would have been -0.003
José Ramírez	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.882 → 0.848	-0.035	0.2169	0.2095n=531 Below average	0.2062n=694 Good	0.1991	-0.033	-0.048	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9505 at 0.557 share (log5 0.1991 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x0.9739 at 0.443 share (log5 0.2040 vs pen 0.2113) = x0.9609 \| starter alone would have been -0.044
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.700 → 0.787	+0.087	0.2212	0.1376n=531 Very good	0.2528n=694 Good	0.1597	-0.378	+0.143	-0.043 ok
		split	starter x1.1608 at 0.557 share (log5 0.1597 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x1.0786 at 0.443 share (log5 0.1484 vs pen 0.2368) = x1.1244 \| starter alone would have been +0.113
		Walkswhole staff	0.515 → 0.521	+0.006	0.0889	0.1086n=531 Good	0.0893n=694 Average	0.1090	+0.089	+0.002	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0037 at 0.557 share (log5 0.1090 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x1.0201 at 0.443 share (log5 0.1108 vs pen 0.0907) = x1.011 \| starter alone would have been +0.002
		Home runswhole staff	0.103 → 0.096	-0.007	0.0304	0.0252n=531 Below average	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0237	-0.024	-0.008	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9394 at 0.557 share (log5 0.0237 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9119 at 0.443 share (log5 0.0230 vs pen 0.0277) = x0.9272 \| starter alone would have been -0.006
Chase DeLauter	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.937 → 0.901	-0.035	0.2169	0.2364n=543 Very good	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2251	+0.084	-0.045	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9521 at 0.557 share (log5 0.2251 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x0.9748 at 0.443 share (log5 0.2305 vs pen 0.2113) = x0.9622 \| starter alone would have been -0.045
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.733 → 0.822	+0.089	0.2212	0.1534n=543 Good	0.2528n=694 Good	0.1775	-0.290	+0.135	-0.032 ok
		split	starter x1.1574 at 0.557 share (log5 0.1775 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x1.0771 at 0.443 share (log5 0.1652 vs pen 0.2368) = x1.1218 \| starter alone would have been +0.115
		Walkswhole staff	0.462 → 0.467	+0.005	0.0889	0.1051n=543 Good	0.0893n=694 Average	0.1055	+0.069	+0.001	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0037 at 0.557 share (log5 0.1055 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x1.0202 at 0.443 share (log5 0.1072 vs pen 0.0907) = x1.011 \| starter alone would have been +0.002
		Home runswhole staff	0.111 → 0.103	-0.008	0.0304	0.0298n=543 Average	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0280	-0.003	-0.008	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9397 at 0.557 share (log5 0.0280 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9123 at 0.443 share (log5 0.0272 vs pen 0.0277) = x0.9276 \| starter alone would have been -0.007
Jo Adell	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.876 → 0.842	-0.034	0.2169	0.2185n=656 Average	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2078	+0.006	-0.043	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9511 at 0.557 share (log5 0.2078 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x0.9742 at 0.443 share (log5 0.2128 vs pen 0.2113) = x0.9613 \| starter alone would have been -0.043
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.209 → 1.340	+0.131	0.2212	0.2367n=656 Average	0.2528n=694 Good	0.2697	+0.063	+0.129	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x1.1397 at 0.557 share (log5 0.2697 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x1.069 at 0.443 share (log5 0.2530 vs pen 0.2368) = x1.1084 \| starter alone would have been +0.169
		Walkswhole staff	0.253 → 0.256	+0.003	0.0889	0.0575n=656 Poor	0.0893n=694 Average	0.0578	-0.128	+0.001	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0039 at 0.557 share (log5 0.0578 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x1.0213 at 0.443 share (log5 0.0588 vs pen 0.0907) = x1.0116 \| starter alone would have been +0.001
		Home runswhole staff	0.125 → 0.116	-0.009	0.0304	0.0337n=656 Average	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0317	+0.014	-0.007	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9399 at 0.557 share (log5 0.0317 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9126 at 0.443 share (log5 0.0308 vs pen 0.0277) = x0.9278 \| starter alone would have been -0.007
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.791 → 0.761	-0.031	0.2169	0.2187n=417 Average	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2080	+0.007	-0.041	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9511 at 0.557 share (log5 0.2080 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x0.9742 at 0.443 share (log5 0.2131 vs pen 0.2113) = x0.9613 \| starter alone would have been -0.039
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.999 → 1.108	+0.109	0.2212	0.2293n=417 Average	0.2528n=694 Good	0.2617	+0.031	+0.122	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.1413 at 0.557 share (log5 0.2617 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x1.0697 at 0.443 share (log5 0.2452 vs pen 0.2368) = x1.1096 \| starter alone would have been +0.141
		Walkswhole staff	0.377 → 0.381	+0.004	0.0889	0.0906n=417 Average	0.0893n=694 Average	0.0910	+0.007	+0.001	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0038 at 0.557 share (log5 0.0910 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x1.0205 at 0.443 share (log5 0.0925 vs pen 0.0907) = x1.0112 \| starter alone would have been +0.001
		Home runswhole staff	0.120 → 0.111	-0.009	0.0304	0.0353n=417 Good	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0332	+0.019	-0.007	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.94 at 0.557 share (log5 0.0332 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9127 at 0.443 share (log5 0.0322 vs pen 0.0277) = x0.9279 \| starter alone would have been -0.007
Travis Bazzana	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.769 → 0.739	-0.030	0.2169	0.2129n=506 Average	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2024	-0.015	-0.042	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9507 at 0.557 share (log5 0.2024 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x0.9741 at 0.443 share (log5 0.2074 vs pen 0.2113) = x0.9611 \| starter alone would have been -0.038
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.909 → 1.012	+0.103	0.2212	0.2087n=506 Average	0.2528n=694 Good	0.2391	-0.049	+0.123	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.1456 at 0.557 share (log5 0.2391 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x1.0717 at 0.443 share (log5 0.2237 vs pen 0.2368) = x1.1128 \| starter alone would have been +0.132
		Walkswhole staff	0.432 → 0.437	+0.005	0.0889	0.1033n=506 Good	0.0893n=694 Average	0.1037	+0.056	+0.001	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0037 at 0.557 share (log5 0.1037 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x1.0202 at 0.443 share (log5 0.1054 vs pen 0.0907) = x1.011 \| starter alone would have been +0.002
		Home runswhole staff	0.102 → 0.094	-0.007	0.0304	0.0299n=506 Average	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0281	-0.002	-0.007	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9397 at 0.557 share (log5 0.0281 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9123 at 0.443 share (log5 0.0273 vs pen 0.0277) = x0.9276 \| starter alone would have been -0.006
Patrick Bailey	C	Hitswhole staff	0.756 → 0.727	-0.030	0.2169	0.2062n=333 Below average	0.2062n=694 Good	0.1960	-0.040	-0.040	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9503 at 0.557 share (log5 0.1960 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x0.9738 at 0.443 share (log5 0.2008 vs pen 0.2113) = x0.9607 \| starter alone would have been -0.038
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.143 → 1.261	+0.118	0.2212	0.2666n=333 Below average	0.2528n=694 Good	0.3022	+0.171	+0.119	+0.015 ok
		split	starter x1.1335 at 0.557 share (log5 0.3022 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x1.0661 at 0.443 share (log5 0.2843 vs pen 0.2368) = x1.1036 \| starter alone would have been +0.153
		Walkswhole staff	0.324 → 0.328	+0.004	0.0889	0.0809n=333 Average	0.0893n=694 Average	0.0812	-0.030	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0038 at 0.557 share (log5 0.0812 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x1.0207 at 0.443 share (log5 0.0826 vs pen 0.0907) = x1.0113 \| starter alone would have been +0.001
		Home runswhole staff	0.108 → 0.101	-0.008	0.0304	0.0302n=333 Average	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0284	-0.001	-0.007	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9397 at 0.557 share (log5 0.0284 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9123 at 0.443 share (log5 0.0275 vs pen 0.0277) = x0.9276 \| starter alone would have been -0.006
Petey Halpin	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.729 → 0.700	-0.028	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2062	0	-0.037	0 ok
		split	starter x0.951 at 0.557 share (log5 0.2062 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x0.9742 at 0.443 share (log5 0.2113 vs pen 0.2113) = x0.9613 \| starter alone would have been -0.036
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.829 → 0.921	+0.092	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2528n=694 Good	0.2528	0	+0.110	0 ok
		split	starter x1.143 at 0.557 share (log5 0.2528 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x1.0705 at 0.443 share (log5 0.2368 vs pen 0.2368) = x1.1109 \| starter alone would have been +0.118
		Walkswhole staff	0.222 → 0.225	+0.003	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0893n=694 Average	0.0893	0	+0.001	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0038 at 0.557 share (log5 0.0893 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x1.0205 at 0.443 share (log5 0.0907 vs pen 0.0907) = x1.0112 \| starter alone would have been +0.001
		Home runswhole staff	0.087 → 0.081	-0.006	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0286	0	-0.006	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9397 at 0.557 share (log5 0.0286 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9123 at 0.443 share (log5 0.0277 vs pen 0.0277) = x0.9276 \| starter alone would have been -0.005
Brayan Rocchio	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.741 → 0.713	-0.029	0.2169	0.2238n=576 Average	0.2062n=694 Good	0.2130	+0.024	-0.037	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9514 at 0.557 share (log5 0.2130 vs his 0.2062) + bullpen x0.9744 at 0.443 share (log5 0.2181 vs pen 0.2113) = x0.9616 \| starter alone would have been -0.036
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.612 → 0.686	+0.075	0.2212	0.1501n=576 Good	0.2528n=694 Good	0.1738	-0.246	+0.109	-0.027 ok
		split	starter x1.1581 at 0.557 share (log5 0.1738 vs his 0.2528) + bullpen x1.0774 at 0.443 share (log5 0.1617 vs pen 0.2368) = x1.1223 \| starter alone would have been +0.097
		Walkswhole staff	0.265 → 0.268	+0.003	0.0889	0.0699n=576 Below average	0.0893n=694 Average	0.0702	-0.066	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0039 at 0.557 share (log5 0.0702 vs his 0.0893) + bullpen x1.021 at 0.443 share (log5 0.0714 vs pen 0.0907) = x1.0115 \| starter alone would have been +0.001
		Home runswhole staff	0.079 → 0.073	-0.006	0.0304	0.0250n=576 Below average	0.0286n=694 Average	0.0235	-0.018	-0.006	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9394 at 0.557 share (log5 0.0235 vs his 0.0286) + bullpen x0.9119 at 0.443 share (log5 0.0228 vs pen 0.0277) = x0.9272 \| starter alone would have been -0.005
STARTER Gavin Williams20.5131 BF	Starter	Hits	3.730 → 3.704	-0.025	0.2169	0.1978n=721 Good	0.21548/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1965	-0.391	-0.030	+0.002 ok
		Strikeouts	7.658 → 8.272	+0.614	0.2212	0.3179n=721 Very good	0.24178/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3434	+1.984	+0.420	+0.103 ok
		Walks	2.239 → 2.462	+0.223	0.0889	0.0854n=721 Average	0.09778/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0939	-0.073	+0.181	-0.006 ok
		Home runs	0.403 → 0.451	+0.048	0.0304	0.0330n=721 Below average	0.03408/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0370	+0.054	+0.074	+0.006 ok
RELIEVER Joey Cantillo3.6991 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.783 → 0.778	-0.005	0.2169	0.2118n=687 Average	0.21548/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2104	-0.019	-0.005	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.910 → 0.991	+0.081	0.2212	0.2460n=687 Good	0.24178/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2680	+0.092	+0.076	+0.006 ok
		Walks	0.416 → 0.456	+0.040	0.0889	0.1125n=687 Below average	0.09778/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1233	+0.087	+0.033	+0.007 ok
		Home runs	0.100 → 0.112	+0.012	0.0304	0.0270n=687 Good	0.03408/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0302	-0.013	+0.013	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Tanner Bibee2.6181 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.951 → 0.945	-0.006	0.2169	0.2223n=780 Average	0.21548/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2208	+0.014	-0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.055 → 1.157	+0.102	0.2212	0.1927n=780 Below average	0.24178/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2112	-0.075	+0.054	-0.005 ok
		Walks	0.596 → 0.656	+0.060	0.0889	0.0736n=780 Good	0.09778/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0810	-0.040	+0.023	-0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.142 → 0.159	+0.017	0.0304	0.0347n=780 Below average	0.03408/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0388	+0.011	+0.009	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Erik Sabrowski2.5205 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.459 → 0.455	-0.003	0.2169	0.1819n=194 Very good	0.21548/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1806	-0.088	-0.004	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.843 → 0.909	+0.066	0.2212	0.3346n=194 Very good	0.24178/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3607	+0.286	+0.052	+0.014 ok
		Walks	0.323 → 0.353	+0.030	0.0889	0.1280n=194 Poor	0.09778/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1401	+0.099	+0.022	+0.008 ok
		Home runs	0.065 → 0.073	+0.008	0.0304	0.0259n=194 Good	0.03408/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0290	-0.011	+0.009	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Daniel Espino2.4733 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.978 → 0.972	-0.006	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21548/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2154	0	-0.004	0 ok
		Strikeouts	1.665 → 1.819	+0.154	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.24178/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2417	0	+0.051	0 ok
		Walks	0.394 → 0.433	+0.039	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09778/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0977	0	+0.022	0 ok
		Home runs	0.182 → 0.204	+0.022	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03408/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0340	0	+0.009	0 ok
RELIEVER Shawn Armstrong1.9009 BF	Middle Reliever	Hits	0.570 → 0.566	-0.004	0.2169	0.2076n=148 Average	0.21548/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2062	-0.018	-0.003	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.996 → 1.089	+0.093	0.2212	0.2180n=148 Average	0.24178/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2382	-0.006	+0.039	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.338 → 0.371	+0.033	0.0889	0.1048n=148 Below average	0.09778/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1149	+0.030	+0.017	+0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.059 → 0.066	+0.007	0.0304	0.0279n=148 Average	0.03408/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0312	-0.005	+0.007	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Tim Herrin1.879 BF	Middle Reliever	Hits	0.587 → 0.583	-0.004	0.2169	0.2029n=237 Good	0.21548/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2016	-0.026	-0.003	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.783 → 0.855	+0.072	0.2212	0.2262n=237 Average	0.24178/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2470	+0.009	+0.038	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.303 → 0.333	+0.029	0.0889	0.1065n=237 Below average	0.09778/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1168	+0.033	+0.017	+0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.046 → 0.051	+0.005	0.0304	0.0272n=237 Average	0.03408/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0304	-0.006	+0.007	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Hunter Gaddis1.7477 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.997 → 0.990	-0.007	0.2169	0.2138n=252 Average	0.21548/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2124	-0.005	-0.003	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.893 → 0.976	+0.083	0.2212	0.2220n=252 Average	0.24178/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2425	+0.001	+0.036	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.263 → 0.289	+0.026	0.0889	0.0879n=252 Average	0.09778/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0966	-0.002	+0.015	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.136 → 0.152	+0.016	0.0304	0.0294n=252 Average	0.03408/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0330	-0.002	+0.006	-0.000 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Sean Burke	Starter	19.8	4.2	4.556	3 / 4.216	7 / 5.087	2 / 1.868	3 / 2.191	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Sean Newcomb	Long Reliever	5.5	1.1	1.337	3 / 1.030	1 / 1.246	0 / 0.435	1 / 0.445	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Noah Schultz	Long Reliever	7.9	2.0	2.006	1 / 1.538	1 / 1.623	0 / 0.350	1 / 0.682	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever	4.5	0.1	1.003	1 / 0.912	0 / 1.223	1 / 0.602	1 / 0.489	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Gavin Williams	Starter	20.5	5.0	4.848	5 / 3.730	7 / 7.658	1 / 2.239	4 / 1.933	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever	2.9	0.2	0.667	0 / 0.587	1 / 0.783	0 / 0.303	0 / 0.207	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Shawn Armstrong	Middle Reliever	3.9	1.0	1.000	1 / 0.570	1 / 0.996	0 / 0.338	0 / 0.235	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Daniel Espino	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.4	1.0	1.000	1 / 0.978	2 / 1.665	0 / 0.394	0 / 0.319	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.3	1.0	1.000	0 / 0.997	2 / 0.893	0 / 0.263	0 / 0.337	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Tanner Bibee	Setup Man	4.5	0.1	1.000	1 / 0.951	0 / 1.055	0 / 0.596	0 / 0.717	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: 1 CHECK(S) FAILED

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity136 checks	PASS	136 of 136 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
away staff totals a regulation workload	FAIL	25 outs recorded, 24 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 4.556
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Sean Burke projected 19.8 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 6
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 4.848
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Gavin Williams projected 20.5 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band5 checks	PASS	5 of 5 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

Provenance. Read only from published artifacts and stored KPI value documents. Nothing is recomputed, so this document cannot disagree with what was published. Per-player metric adjustments are a measurement of the catalog at player level and are labelled as such throughout; the pipeline itself moved team runs, the win probability, and hitter lines by one club-wide ratio.