KPI failures: 20261009

Every player, club and KPI on the settled card scored against the real lines. Expectations are rescaled to the plate appearances or batters faced each player really had. Gain is how much closer the KPI line was than the line before it: positive, the KPI helped. Rolling ledger over 20 slates in 21 days.

Scored
0 games
0 hitters · 0 pitchers
Hitter gain by metric
H +0.00 · SO +0.00 · BB +0.00 · HR +0.00
right-way rate H – · SO – · BB – · HR –
Club runs the KPI blend added
+0.00
summed absolute error change; negative, the blend helped
Relievers pitched, not projected
0

Why the misses happened

ReasonHitter metric rowsPitchers
playing time off the projection00
KPI moved the wrong way00
KPI gave no signal00
surprise beyond the expectation00
ordinary variance00
workload off the projection00
projected, did not pitch00
pitched, not projected00

Clubs

GameClubActualBaselineKPI aloneBlendPubKPI run effectCauseHitter gain H/SO/BB/HROpp. pitching gainCard wrongSP outs errPen share errWrong-way features

Hitters: every metric, every reading

GameClubHitterPAPA errMetricBefore KPIKPIActualGainDirectionWhyDriverOwn KPIOpp. SP KPISP multPen mult

Pitchers: starters and every projected reliever

GameClubPitcherRoleListed asP(pitch)PitchedProj BFActual BFWorkload errKPI line/actual (gain)GainWhy

KPIs: where a reading misleads

MetricSideKPIBandRowsDaysMean gainIntervalRight wayMisleading
SOpitcherpitcher_strikeout_rateelite21011-0.0347(-0.05984, -0.00582)0.46yes
BBpitcherpitcher_walk_ratepoor686-0.0225-0.26no
HRpitcherpitcher_home_run_rate_allowedpoor23411-0.0148(-0.01867, -0.01212)0.17yes
SObatterbatter_strikeout_rateaverage92213-0.0095(-0.01697, -0.00262)0.50yes
BBpitcherpitcher_walk_rateweak1326-0.0072-0.39no
HRpitcherpitcher_home_run_rate_allowedweak2718-0.0054(-0.0069, -0.00353)0.16yes
SOpitcherpitcher_strikeout_ratestrong2369-0.0053(-0.02242, 0.01159)0.55no
SObatterbatter_strikeout_rateweak28911-0.0050(-0.01295, 0.0035)0.49no
Hbatterderived_batter_hit_ratepoor12111-0.0050-0.45no
SObatterbatter_strikeout_ratestrong33713-0.0045(-0.01157, 0.00252)0.53no
SOpitcherpitcher_strikeout_rateaverage82213-0.0032(-0.00605, -1e-05)0.49yes
Hbatterderived_batter_hit_rateelite18411-0.0030(-0.0103, 0.00352)0.47no
Hpitcherderived_pitcher_hit_rate_allowedweak3398-0.0027(-0.0073, 0.00047)0.51no
Hpitcherderived_pitcher_hit_rate_allowedstrong30210-0.0015(-0.00592, 0.00394)0.51no
BBpitcherpitcher_walk_rateaverage88013-0.0007(-0.00159, -3e-05)0.41yes
Hbatterderived_batter_hit_ratestrong31212+0.0003(-0.00389, 0.00429)0.52no
Hpitcherderived_pitcher_hit_rate_allowedaverage74812+0.0004(-0.00058, 0.00154)0.53no
Hbatterderived_batter_hit_rateaverage82812+0.0009(-0.00118, 0.00355)0.53no
HRbatterbatter_home_run_ratepoor13613+0.0009-0.58no
BBbatterbatter_walk_rateaverage86913+0.0012(-0.00087, 0.00363)0.51no
SObatterbatter_strikeout_ratepoor11212+0.0019-0.55no
BBbatterbatter_walk_rateweak29113+0.0021(0.00065, 0.00375)0.58no
BBbatterbatter_walk_rateelite18112+0.0021(-0.00164, 0.00668)0.53no
BBbatterbatter_walk_ratepoor13612+0.0023-0.56no
HRbatterbatter_home_run_rateaverage94713+0.0025(0.00108, 0.00441)0.63no
HRbatterbatter_home_run_rateweak22613+0.0025(0.0009, 0.00463)0.63no
SOpitcherpitcher_strikeout_rateweak41911+0.0027(-0.00321, 0.00966)0.54no
Hpitcherderived_pitcher_hit_rate_allowedpoor1636+0.0027(-0.0054, 0.00978)0.53no
Hbatterderived_batter_hit_rateweak21712+0.0030(-0.00258, 0.00859)0.56no
BBbatterbatter_walk_ratestrong34113+0.0034(-0.00177, 0.00779)0.55no
SOpitcherpitcher_strikeout_ratepoor1317+0.0035-0.57no
HRpitcherpitcher_home_run_rate_allowedaverage90013+0.0042(0.00321, 0.00537)0.75no
HRbatterbatter_home_run_ratestrong32713+0.0048(0.00121, 0.00908)0.64no
HRbatterbatter_home_run_rateelite18212+0.0052(0.00132, 0.00924)0.60no
BBpitcherpitcher_walk_ratestrong40711+0.0072(0.00414, 0.01114)0.74no
Hpitcherderived_pitcher_hit_rate_allowedelite1108+0.0087-0.56no
BBpitcherpitcher_walk_rateelite33110+0.0112(0.00632, 0.0158)0.71no
SObatterbatter_strikeout_rateelite15812+0.0122(0.0068, 0.01769)0.58no
HRpitcherpitcher_home_run_rate_allowedstrong2629+0.0128(0.01078, 0.01547)0.91no
HRpitcherpitcher_home_run_rate_allowedelite15111+0.0223(0.01907, 0.02652)0.93no

Rolling ledger: clubs over 20 slates

ClubGamesMAE baselineMAE blendRun biasCausesCard wrong / gameSP outs errPen share errRecurring wrong-way featuresChronic
CLE74.143.38-0.24lineup 1, outlier_game 3, variance 2, layer_refused 10.71+0.1+0.009away_off_discipline x3, away_off_contact x3, away_x_fastball x2, away_off_power_spread x2no
ARI83.123.17-1.98variance 3, lineup 1, outlier_game 2, kpi_direction 21.12+1.9-0.016home_off_top3_contact x4, home_off_discipline x3, away_platoon_whiff x3, home_off_qualified_share x3yes
COL72.863.17+0.78variance 3, kpi_direction 3, outlier_game 10.57-0.8+0.025home_off_power_spread x3, home_sp_suppress x3, home_off_worst3_discipline x2, away_sp_velocity x2yes
HOU81.882.90-2.07kpi_direction 4, variance 3, layer_refused 10.62+0.2-0.080away_off_contact_spread x4, away_off_worst3_discipline x4, home_off_ground_spread x3, home_off_qualified_share x3yes
LAD102.302.78+1.51layer_refused 6, variance 3, outlier_game 10.50+3.0-0.125home_off_ground x3, home_pen_minus_sp x2, away_off_discipline_spread x2, away_off_contact x2yes
OAK62.802.75+0.67layer_refused 2, starter_length 2, variance 22.00+3.3-0.114away_sp_velocity x3, home_off_ground x3, home_pen_minus_sp x2, home_sp_ground x2no
CHW82.882.72-1.29lineup 5, variance 2, starter_length 13.50+4.2-0.119home_off_qualified_share x5, home_platoon_whiff x4, away_off_worst3_discipline x4, home_off_top3_contact x2no
TB72.862.71+0.14lineup 2, starter_length 2, variance 2, kpi_direction 11.29+3.0-0.054away_off_discipline x4, away_off_contact x3, away_off_power_spread x3, away_off_contact_spread x2no
KC72.862.71-1.22variance 3, outlier_game 1, starter_length 1, kpi_direction 1, layer_refused 10.86+4.3-0.103away_off_discipline_spread x4, away_off_contact x3, away_sp_velocity x3, home_sp_velocity x2no
NYY93.112.70-0.51variance 4, lineup 2, starter_length 1, outlier_game 1, bullpen_exposure 11.22+1.1-0.035home_platoon_whiff x4, home_sp_velocity x3, home_x_fastball x3, home_off_ground_spread x3no
SEA72.862.67+0.33outlier_game 1, starter_length 2, variance 40.71+2.5-0.070home_off_ground x5, away_off_contact_spread x3, away_off_power_spread x3, home_off_contact_spread x3no
CHC83.002.65+2.16starter_length 2, variance 3, lineup 1, bullpen_exposure 1, kpi_direction 11.00+0.4-0.066home_off_qualified_share x4, home_off_power x4, home_platoon_barrel x3, away_x_fastball x3no
ATL112.462.46+0.30variance 3, outlier_game 1, starter_length 4, kpi_direction 2, layer_refused 10.55+0.8-0.039home_platoon_barrel x4, home_off_qualified_share x3, away_off_contact_spread x3, home_sp_command x3yes
MIN82.752.35-0.70variance 3, outlier_game 1, lineup 1, layer_refused 1, kpi_direction 1, starter_length 10.75+2.8-0.046home_sp_suppress x3, away_sp_ground x3, away_off_discipline x3, home_off_qualified_share x3no
PHI82.382.29+0.94starter_length 3, variance 2, outlier_game 1, bullpen_exposure 1, kpi_direction 10.25+4.7-0.085home_off_ground_spread x4, home_off_power x3, home_off_contact_spread x3, away_off_power_spread x3no
BAL52.202.23-0.40starter_length 1, variance 2, kpi_direction 1, lineup 11.40+5.2-0.007away_off_contact x3, home_off_discipline x3, home_sp_velocity x2, home_off_power x2no
BOS71.712.19+2.19lineup 2, variance 2, starter_length 2, kpi_direction 11.00+4.2-0.113away_off_ground x6, away_off_power_spread x4, away_x_suppress x3, away_off_top3_contact x3yes
PIT72.292.16+0.33kpi_direction 3, lineup 1, outlier_game 1, starter_length 1, variance 10.43+0.3+0.006home_off_ground_spread x3, away_pen_share x3, home_off_power_spread x3, home_platoon_barrel x3no
DET52.002.10+0.46variance 1, starter_length 3, kpi_direction 10.60+6.4-0.216away_off_ground x3, away_off_top3_contact x3, away_off_contact_spread x3, home_sp_command x2no
WAS62.002.08-0.59kpi_direction 1, lineup 1, variance 2, starter_length 1, outlier_game 11.00+1.7-0.003away_off_contact_spread x4, home_platoon_whiff x3, home_off_ground_spread x2, away_sp_whiff x2yes
LAA82.142.06+0.05variance 4, kpi_direction 1, layer_refused 1, starter_length 1, bullpen_exposure 11.00+1.8-0.105home_platoon_whiff x3, away_off_discipline x3, away_off_worst3_discipline x3, away_off_power_spread x3no
SD112.092.00-1.44variance 2, kpi_direction 3, starter_length 2, bullpen_exposure 1, outlier_game 2, layer_refused 10.45+2.7-0.060home_off_top3_contact x5, away_off_discipline_spread x5, home_off_discipline_spread x5, home_off_qualified_share x4no
NYM62.331.98+0.22variance 4, starter_length 1, kpi_direction 10.33+1.9-0.089home_sp_suppress x4, home_platoon_whiff x3, away_off_contact x3, away_off_contact_spread x3no
SF81.751.86+1.05layer_refused 6, lineup 21.50+3.4-0.060home_off_qualified_share x1, away_off_power_spread x1, home_off_ground_spread x1, away_off_ground_spread x1yes
CIN72.141.86+0.74kpi_direction 2, lineup 3, starter_length 1, bullpen_exposure 11.29+3.0-0.072away_off_contact x4, away_sp_ground x4, home_off_power x3, home_platoon_barrel x3no
STL71.571.83+0.57kpi_direction 4, bullpen_exposure 1, starter_length 1, variance 11.14-0.1-0.018home_off_ground x3, home_off_power_spread x3, home_platoon_whiff x3, home_sp_suppress x3yes
MIA81.501.74+0.13starter_length 1, kpi_direction 2, lineup 1, variance 3, bullpen_exposure 10.88+0.4-0.034away_off_contact_spread x4, home_off_power_spread x4, home_platoon_barrel x3, home_off_qualified_share x3yes
TOR61.671.58+1.47starter_length 2, kpi_direction 1, lineup 1, variance 21.00+2.0+0.040away_off_discipline x3, home_platoon_whiff x3, home_off_power x2, away_sp_velocity x2no
MIL91.561.54+0.26variance 5, kpi_direction 3, layer_refused 10.78+1.2-0.026home_platoon_barrel x4, home_off_power_spread x3, away_off_qualified_share x3, home_off_discipline x3no
TEX71.711.38+0.43variance 6, lineup 10.71-1.2+0.120away_off_contact_spread x5, away_off_contact x3, home_off_discipline x3, home_off_top3_contact x2no

What the system should change

ScopeSubjectFindingAction
kpipitcher_strikeout_rate (elite) on SOadjustments made SO worse over 210 hitter-games in 11 days, mean gain -0.0347, interval (-0.05984, -0.00582)review this KPI's weight in the matchup multiplier; it is an operator change to the recipe
kpipitcher_home_run_rate_allowed (poor) on HRadjustments made HR worse over 234 hitter-games in 11 days, mean gain -0.0148, interval (-0.01867, -0.01212)review this KPI's weight in the matchup multiplier; it is an operator change to the recipe
kpibatter_strikeout_rate (average) on SOadjustments made SO worse over 922 hitter-games in 13 days, mean gain -0.0095, interval (-0.01697, -0.00262)review this KPI's weight in the matchup multiplier; it is an operator change to the recipe
kpipitcher_home_run_rate_allowed (weak) on HRadjustments made HR worse over 271 hitter-games in 8 days, mean gain -0.0054, interval (-0.0069, -0.00353)review this KPI's weight in the matchup multiplier; it is an operator change to the recipe
kpipitcher_strikeout_rate (average) on SOadjustments made SO worse over 822 hitter-games in 13 days, mean gain -0.0032, interval (-0.00605, -1e-05)review this KPI's weight in the matchup multiplier; it is an operator change to the recipe
kpipitcher_walk_rate (average) on BBadjustments made BB worse over 880 hitter-games in 13 days, mean gain -0.0007, interval (-0.00159, -3e-05)review this KPI's weight in the matchup multiplier; it is an operator change to the recipe
clubATLKPI blend worse than the baseline over 11 games (MAE 2.462 vs 2.455, bias +0.299)check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage
clubHOUKPI blend worse than the baseline over 8 games (MAE 2.902 vs 1.875, bias -2.073)check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage
clubMIAKPI blend worse than the baseline over 8 games (MAE 1.74 vs 1.5, bias +0.134)check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage
clubARIKPI blend worse than the baseline over 8 games (MAE 3.175 vs 3.125, bias -1.975)check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage
clubCOLKPI blend worse than the baseline over 7 games (MAE 3.165 vs 2.857, bias +0.775)check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage
clubSFKPI blend worse than the baseline over 8 games (MAE 1.861 vs 1.75, bias +1.054)check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage
clubLADKPI blend worse than the baseline over 10 games (MAE 2.776 vs 2.3, bias +1.513)check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage
clubWASKPI blend worse than the baseline over 6 games (MAE 2.081 vs 2.0, bias -0.588)check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage
clubSTLKPI blend worse than the baseline over 7 games (MAE 1.834 vs 1.571, bias +0.569)check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage
clubBOSKPI blend worse than the baseline over 7 games (MAE 2.185 vs 1.714, bias +2.185)check the wrong-way features listed for this club and its data coverage
playerYuki Matsui (SD)KPI adjustments hurt BB (gain -0.72 over 7 games, bias +0.57), HR (gain -0.01 over 7 games, bias +0.16), H (gain -0.12 over 6 games, bias +0.44)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerJeremiah Jackson (BAL)KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.69 over 5 games, bias -0.29)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerTrea Turner (PHI)KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.61 over 8 games, bias +0.34)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerKyle Schwarber (PHI)KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.58 over 8 games, bias +0.91), BB (gain -0.17 over 8 games, bias -0.25)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerShay Whitcomb (SF)KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.57 over 6 games, bias +0.19)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerJonny DeLuca (TB)KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.55 over 6 games, bias +0.06)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerCoby Mayo (BAL)KPI adjustments hurt H (gain -0.13 over 5 games, bias -0.20), SO (gain -0.55 over 5 games, bias +0.20), BB (gain -0.05 over 5 games, bias -0.27)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerManny Machado (SD)KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.53 over 11 games, bias +0.14), H (gain -0.13 over 10 games, bias -0.10)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerTy France (SD)KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.52 over 11 games, bias +0.14)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerGeorge Lombard Jr. (NYY)KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.48 over 8 games, bias -0.02), H (gain -0.17 over 7 games, bias -0.40)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerJordan Walker (STL)KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.48 over 7 games, bias -0.20)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerChristian Walker (HOU)KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.42 over 8 games, bias +0.52)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerTim Tawa (ARI)KPI adjustments hurt H (gain -0.42 over 7 games, bias +0.10)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerMike Trout (LAA)KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.42 over 7 games, bias +0.34), BB (gain -0.25 over 7 games, bias -0.55), HR (gain -0.01 over 7 games, bias +0.03)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerJac Caglianone (KC)KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.41 over 6 games, bias +0.40), H (gain -0.13 over 5 games, bias -0.91)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerKetel Marte (ARI)KPI adjustments hurt H (gain -0.41 over 7 games, bias +0.05)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerColson Montgomery (CHW)KPI adjustments hurt H (gain -0.28 over 6 games, bias +0.64), SO (gain -0.40 over 6 games, bias -0.66)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerYandy Díaz (TB)KPI adjustments hurt H (gain -0.21 over 5 games, bias -0.52), SO (gain -0.38 over 5 games, bias +0.88)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerOzzie Albies (ATL)KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.36 over 11 games, bias -0.34), BB (gain -0.19 over 11 games, bias -0.06)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerCam Smith (HOU)KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.35 over 8 games, bias -0.16), HR (gain -0.04 over 8 games, bias +0.06), H (gain -0.08 over 7 games, bias +0.05)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerAnthony Volpe (NYY)KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.34 over 6 games, bias +0.14), H (gain -0.02 over 5 games, bias -0.17)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerBryce Harper (PHI)KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.33 over 8 games, bias +0.05)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerKyle Isbel (KC)KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.33 over 5 games, bias -0.24)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerAdrian Morejon (SD)KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.32 over 5 games, bias +0.83), HR (gain -0.03 over 5 games, bias -0.09)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change
playerLuke Keaschall (MIN)KPI adjustments hurt SO (gain -0.31 over 7 games, bias +0.31)his KPI reading or its opponent pairing misleads; watch whether it persists before any change