Odds impact on the published slate · 2026-10-08

For every priced player: the model line before the market blend, the expectation the cross-book no-vig price implies, the line we published, and how far the blend moved it. Published = model × m^w, where m prices the model at the market and w is fitted per stat on settled props strictly before this slate. Club score, winner and win probability are never moved by the blend. Generated 2026-10-09 00:39 UTC.

Games

1 with the blend applied

Players priced

161 player-stat lines

Lines moved

140

published differs from the model

Mean absolute move

0.098

per player-stat, in stat units

Per game

Game	Published score	Home win	Odds requested	Blend	Hitters moved	Starters moved	Reason
20261008_CLE@CHW	CLE 5 - 4 CHW	0.495	yes	applied	15	2
20261008_TB@NYY	TB 4 - 3 NYY	0.495	no	not applied	0	0	odds not requested

Blend weights in force

w = 0 keeps the model, w = 1 publishes the market. Each weight is shrunk toward 0.5 with strength 100 player-games, so a thin ledger stays near the prior.

Stat	Weight used	Evidence optimum	Settled rows	Dates	Source
batter:1B	0.807	1.000	159	4	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:2B	0.193	0.000	159	4	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:3B	0.467	0.000	7	4	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:BB	0.802	1.000	153	4	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:H	0.678	0.790	159	4	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:HR	0.194	0.000	158	4	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:R	0.807	1.000	159	4	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:RBI	0.709	0.840	159	4	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
batter:SO	0.500	–	0	0	prior_only
pitcher:BB	0.570	0.980	17	3	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
pitcher:ER	0.494	0.460	18	3	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
pitcher:H	0.498	0.490	18	3	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
pitcher:OUTS	0.514	0.590	18	3	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior
pitcher:SO	0.576	1.000	18	3	settled_ledger_shrunk_to_prior

Average movement by stat

Role	Stat	Lines	Model	Market implied	Published	Published minus model
batter	1B	15	0.474	0.505	0.474	+0.000
batter	2B	15	0.167	0.175	0.168	+0.001
batter	3B	1	0.014	0.041	0.014	+0.000
batter	BB	15	0.396	0.411	0.406	+0.010
batter	H	15	0.781	0.746	0.780	-0.001
batter	HR	15	0.127	0.132	0.125	-0.002
batter	HRR	15	1.740	1.312	1.625	-0.115
batter	R	15	0.488	0.443	0.450	-0.038
batter	RBI	15	0.471	0.369	0.395	-0.076
batter	SB	15	0.054	0.096	0.054	+0.000
batter	TB	15	1.356	1.303	1.350	-0.006
pitcher	BB	2	1.388	1.326	1.316	-0.072
pitcher	ER	2	1.507	1.097	1.233	-0.274
pitcher	H	2	3.976	2.747	3.260	-0.716
pitcher	OUTS	2	13.192	10.877	11.759	-1.433
pitcher	SO	2	4.560	4.123	4.223	-0.337

Every player and stat

Game	Club	Player	Stat	Model	Market implied	Market minus model	Published	Moved	Books
CLE@CHW	CHW	Braden Montgomery	1B	0.471	0.467	-0.005	0.449	-0.023	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Braden Montgomery	2B	0.156	0.168	+0.012	0.159	+0.002	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Braden Montgomery	BB	0.363	0.307	-0.056	0.318	-0.045	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Braden Montgomery	H	0.739	0.674	-0.065	0.713	-0.025	4
CLE@CHW	CHW	Braden Montgomery	HR	0.096	0.072	-0.023	0.090	-0.005	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Braden Montgomery	HRR	1.665	0.940	-0.725	1.442	-0.224	5
CLE@CHW	CHW	Braden Montgomery	R	0.525	0.368	-0.157	0.394	-0.131	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Braden Montgomery	RBI	0.401	0.310	-0.092	0.334	-0.067	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Braden Montgomery	SB	0.010	0.075	+0.065	0.010	+0.000	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Braden Montgomery	TB	1.212	1.117	-0.095	1.173	-0.039	4
CLE@CHW	CHW	Brenton Doyle	1B	0.514	0.400	-0.114	0.417	-0.096	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Brenton Doyle	2B	0.155	0.152	-0.003	0.154	-0.001	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Brenton Doyle	BB	0.252	0.237	-0.015	0.240	-0.012	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Brenton Doyle	H	0.792	0.650	-0.143	0.695	-0.097	4
CLE@CHW	CHW	Brenton Doyle	HR	0.111	0.110	-0.001	0.111	-0.000	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Brenton Doyle	HRR	1.587	0.850	-0.737	1.381	-0.206	4
CLE@CHW	CHW	Brenton Doyle	R	0.453	0.345	-0.108	0.363	-0.089	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Brenton Doyle	RBI	0.342	0.314	-0.028	0.322	-0.020	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Brenton Doyle	SB	0.171	0.119	-0.052	0.171	+0.000	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Brenton Doyle	TB	1.305	1.087	-0.218	1.206	-0.099	4
CLE@CHW	CHW	Chase Meidroth	1B	0.620	0.704	+0.084	0.653	+0.033	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Chase Meidroth	2B	0.205	0.202	-0.003	0.204	-0.000	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Chase Meidroth	BB	0.390	0.405	+0.016	0.402	+0.012	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Chase Meidroth	H	0.943	0.929	-0.014	0.968	+0.025	4
CLE@CHW	CHW	Chase Meidroth	HR	0.111	0.077	-0.034	0.103	-0.008	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Chase Meidroth	HRR	1.961	1.662	-0.299	1.818	-0.143	5
CLE@CHW	CHW	Chase Meidroth	R	0.603	0.513	-0.089	0.530	-0.073	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Chase Meidroth	RBI	0.416	0.288	-0.128	0.320	-0.095	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Chase Meidroth	SB	0.025	0.072	+0.047	0.025	+0.000	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Chase Meidroth	TB	1.495	1.446	-0.049	1.497	+0.002	6
CLE@CHW	CHW	Colson Montgomery	1B	0.373	0.332	-0.041	0.329	-0.045	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Colson Montgomery	2B	0.149	0.137	-0.012	0.146	-0.003	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Colson Montgomery	BB	0.262	0.357	+0.096	0.336	+0.074	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Colson Montgomery	H	0.675	0.591	-0.084	0.628	-0.047	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Colson Montgomery	HR	0.146	0.221	+0.075	0.146	-0.000	1
CLE@CHW	CHW	Colson Montgomery	HRR	1.610	0.903	-0.708	1.423	-0.187	4
CLE@CHW	CHW	Colson Montgomery	R	0.422	0.395	-0.027	0.400	-0.022	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Colson Montgomery	RBI	0.513	0.354	-0.159	0.394	-0.119	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Colson Montgomery	SB	0.006	0.042	+0.035	0.006	+0.000	1
CLE@CHW	CHW	Colson Montgomery	TB	1.278	1.070	-0.208	1.228	-0.049	4
CLE@CHW	CHW	Kyle Teel	1B	0.504	0.441	-0.062	0.429	-0.075	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Kyle Teel	2B	0.142	0.144	+0.003	0.142	+0.001	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Kyle Teel	BB	0.329	0.404	+0.075	0.388	+0.059	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Kyle Teel	H	0.772	0.627	-0.145	0.694	-0.078	4
CLE@CHW	CHW	Kyle Teel	HR	0.115	0.100	-0.015	0.112	-0.003	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Kyle Teel	HRR	1.885	0.898	-0.987	1.431	-0.454	4
CLE@CHW	CHW	Kyle Teel	R	0.553	0.358	-0.195	0.390	-0.163	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Kyle Teel	RBI	0.560	0.285	-0.275	0.347	-0.213	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Kyle Teel	SB	0.000	–	–	0.000	+0.000	1
CLE@CHW	CHW	Kyle Teel	TB	1.282	1.056	-0.226	1.196	-0.087	4
CLE@CHW	CHW	Miguel Vargas	1B	0.434	0.478	+0.045	0.449	+0.016	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Miguel Vargas	2B	0.168	0.200	+0.032	0.174	+0.006	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Miguel Vargas	BB	0.565	0.556	-0.010	0.558	-0.008	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Miguel Vargas	H	0.796	0.798	+0.002	0.818	+0.021	4
CLE@CHW	CHW	Miguel Vargas	HR	0.185	0.239	+0.054	0.185	+0.000	1
CLE@CHW	CHW	Miguel Vargas	HRR	1.959	1.667	-0.292	1.812	-0.147	5
CLE@CHW	CHW	Miguel Vargas	R	0.668	0.519	-0.149	0.545	-0.123	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Miguel Vargas	RBI	0.495	0.433	-0.062	0.450	-0.045	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Miguel Vargas	SB	0.135	0.110	-0.025	0.135	+0.000	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Miguel Vargas	TB	1.539	1.518	-0.021	1.566	+0.027	4
CLE@CHW	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	1B	0.406	0.383	-0.022	0.363	-0.043	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	2B	0.145	0.147	+0.001	0.146	+0.000	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	BB	0.533	0.554	+0.020	0.550	+0.016	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	H	0.781	0.682	-0.098	0.738	-0.043	4
CLE@CHW	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	HR	0.217	0.272	+0.054	0.217	+0.000	1
CLE@CHW	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	HRR	2.004	1.591	-0.413	1.751	-0.253	5
CLE@CHW	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	R	0.631	0.500	-0.131	0.523	-0.108	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	RBI	0.592	0.453	-0.139	0.490	-0.102	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	SB	0.008	–	–	0.008	+0.000	1
CLE@CHW	CHW	Munetaka Murakami	TB	1.602	1.356	-0.247	1.560	-0.043	4
CLE@CHW	CHW	Randal Grichuk	1B	0.521	0.445	-0.076	0.423	-0.099	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Randal Grichuk	2B	0.255	0.190	-0.066	0.241	-0.014	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Randal Grichuk	BB	0.227	0.256	+0.029	0.227	+0.000	1
CLE@CHW	CHW	Randal Grichuk	H	0.962	0.740	-0.222	0.842	-0.120	4
CLE@CHW	CHW	Randal Grichuk	HR	0.167	0.133	-0.034	0.160	-0.007	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Randal Grichuk	HRR	1.889	1.059	-0.829	1.647	-0.241	5
CLE@CHW	CHW	Randal Grichuk	R	0.390	0.446	+0.056	0.434	+0.044	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Randal Grichuk	RBI	0.536	0.319	-0.217	0.371	-0.165	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Randal Grichuk	SB	0.000	–	–	0.000	+0.000	1
CLE@CHW	CHW	Randal Grichuk	TB	1.756	1.452	-0.304	1.600	-0.156	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Tommy Pham	1B	0.416	0.388	-0.028	0.379	-0.037	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Tommy Pham	2B	0.144	0.149	+0.005	0.145	+0.001	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Tommy Pham	BB	0.335	0.368	+0.033	0.361	+0.026	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Tommy Pham	H	0.678	0.602	-0.076	0.639	-0.039	4
CLE@CHW	CHW	Tommy Pham	HR	0.107	0.093	-0.014	0.104	-0.003	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Tommy Pham	HRR	1.384	0.860	-0.523	1.336	-0.048	4
CLE@CHW	CHW	Tommy Pham	R	0.333	0.363	+0.030	0.357	+0.024	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Tommy Pham	RBI	0.373	0.327	-0.046	0.339	-0.033	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Tommy Pham	SB	0.000	–	–	0.000	+0.000	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Tommy Pham	TB	1.164	1.044	-0.120	1.118	-0.046	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Hagen Smith	BB	1.494	0.814	-0.679	1.057	-0.436	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Hagen Smith	ER	1.467	0.467	-1.000	0.834	-0.634	2
CLE@CHW	CHW	Hagen Smith	H	3.357	1.449	-1.908	2.208	-1.149	3
CLE@CHW	CHW	Hagen Smith	OUTS	11.844	6.065	-5.779	8.398	-3.446	6
CLE@CHW	CHW	Hagen Smith	SO	3.561	2.306	-1.255	2.670	-0.890	2
CLE@CHW	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	1B	0.411	0.537	+0.126	0.479	+0.068	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	2B	0.158	0.175	+0.017	0.161	+0.003	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	BB	0.329	0.353	+0.024	0.348	+0.019	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	H	0.672	0.732	+0.060	0.744	+0.071	4
CLE@CHW	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	HR	0.092	0.094	+0.002	0.093	+0.000	2
CLE@CHW	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	HRR	1.553	1.033	-0.520	1.525	-0.029	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	R	0.467	0.406	-0.061	0.417	-0.049	2
CLE@CHW	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	RBI	0.414	0.345	-0.069	0.364	-0.050	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	SB	0.138	0.122	-0.016	0.138	+0.000	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Brayan Rocchio	TB	1.130	1.253	+0.123	1.205	+0.076	4
CLE@CHW	CLE	Chase DeLauter	1B	0.537	0.664	+0.127	0.609	+0.072	2
CLE@CHW	CLE	Chase DeLauter	2B	0.180	0.204	+0.024	0.185	+0.004	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Chase DeLauter	BB	0.503	0.562	+0.059	0.550	+0.047	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Chase DeLauter	H	0.858	0.932	+0.073	0.936	+0.077	4
CLE@CHW	CLE	Chase DeLauter	HR	0.123	0.127	+0.004	0.124	+0.001	2
CLE@CHW	CLE	Chase DeLauter	HRR	1.902	1.768	-0.134	1.959	+0.057	5
CLE@CHW	CLE	Chase DeLauter	R	0.509	0.516	+0.007	0.514	+0.006	2
CLE@CHW	CLE	Chase DeLauter	RBI	0.535	0.499	-0.036	0.509	-0.026	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Chase DeLauter	SB	0.076	0.099	+0.023	0.076	+0.000	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Chase DeLauter	TB	1.444	1.580	+0.136	1.528	+0.084	6
CLE@CHW	CLE	Jo Adell	1B	0.437	0.525	+0.088	0.478	+0.041	2
CLE@CHW	CLE	Jo Adell	2B	0.180	0.196	+0.016	0.183	+0.003	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Jo Adell	BB	0.340	0.438	+0.097	0.416	+0.076	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Jo Adell	H	0.779	0.802	+0.023	0.823	+0.044	4
CLE@CHW	CLE	Jo Adell	HR	0.147	0.192	+0.045	0.147	+0.000	1
CLE@CHW	CLE	Jo Adell	HRR	1.804	1.699	-0.106	1.826	+0.022	5
CLE@CHW	CLE	Jo Adell	R	0.444	0.482	+0.038	0.474	+0.030	2
CLE@CHW	CLE	Jo Adell	RBI	0.581	0.508	-0.073	0.528	-0.053	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Jo Adell	SB	0.031	0.091	+0.060	0.031	+0.000	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Jo Adell	TB	1.429	1.454	+0.024	1.476	+0.047	4
CLE@CHW	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	1B	0.413	0.513	+0.100	0.474	+0.061	2
CLE@CHW	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	2B	0.162	0.177	+0.015	0.165	+0.003	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	BB	0.406	0.406	+0.001	0.406	+0.001	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	H	0.717	0.780	+0.063	0.777	+0.061	4
CLE@CHW	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	HR	0.132	0.119	-0.013	0.129	-0.003	2
CLE@CHW	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	HRR	1.551	1.558	+0.007	1.662	+0.110	5
CLE@CHW	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	R	0.280	0.447	+0.167	0.409	+0.129	2
CLE@CHW	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	RBI	0.554	0.446	-0.108	0.475	-0.079	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	SB	0.000	–	–	0.000	+0.000	1
CLE@CHW	CLE	Nathaniel Lowe	TB	1.294	1.489	+0.196	1.349	+0.056	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Steven Kwan	1B	0.631	0.761	+0.130	0.712	+0.082	2
CLE@CHW	CLE	Steven Kwan	2B	0.160	0.199	+0.040	0.167	+0.007	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Steven Kwan	BB	0.637	0.545	-0.092	0.562	-0.075	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Steven Kwan	H	0.861	0.962	+0.101	0.950	+0.089	4
CLE@CHW	CLE	Steven Kwan	HR	0.053	0.054	+0.001	0.053	+0.000	2
CLE@CHW	CLE	Steven Kwan	HRR	1.732	1.683	-0.050	1.823	+0.090	5
CLE@CHW	CLE	Steven Kwan	R	0.554	0.547	-0.007	0.548	-0.006	2
CLE@CHW	CLE	Steven Kwan	RBI	0.317	0.328	+0.011	0.325	+0.007	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Steven Kwan	SB	0.061	0.110	+0.049	0.061	+0.000	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Steven Kwan	TB	1.215	1.413	+0.198	1.311	+0.096	6
CLE@CHW	CLE	Travis Bazzana	1B	0.415	0.528	+0.113	0.461	+0.045	2
CLE@CHW	CLE	Travis Bazzana	2B	0.151	0.181	+0.030	0.156	+0.005	4
CLE@CHW	CLE	Travis Bazzana	3B	0.014	0.041	+0.027	0.014	+0.000	1
CLE@CHW	CLE	Travis Bazzana	BB	0.467	0.421	-0.046	0.430	-0.037	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Travis Bazzana	H	0.690	0.693	+0.003	0.736	+0.046	4
CLE@CHW	CLE	Travis Bazzana	HR	0.110	0.086	-0.024	0.105	-0.005	2
CLE@CHW	CLE	Travis Bazzana	HRR	1.610	1.507	-0.103	1.534	-0.076	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Travis Bazzana	R	0.484	0.439	-0.045	0.447	-0.037	2
CLE@CHW	CLE	Travis Bazzana	RBI	0.436	0.321	-0.115	0.351	-0.085	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Travis Bazzana	SB	0.153	0.125	-0.029	0.153	+0.000	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Travis Bazzana	TB	1.199	1.203	+0.004	1.235	+0.036	4
CLE@CHW	CLE	Parker Messick	BB	1.282	1.838	+0.555	1.574	+0.292	2
CLE@CHW	CLE	Parker Messick	ER	1.546	1.726	+0.180	1.632	+0.086	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Parker Messick	H	4.595	4.044	-0.551	4.312	-0.283	3
CLE@CHW	CLE	Parker Messick	OUTS	14.541	15.689	+1.148	15.120	+0.579	6
CLE@CHW	CLE	Parker Messick	SO	5.559	5.940	+0.381	5.775	+0.216	7