MLB Prediction System

Metric Evolution & Audit

Every number that moved, the stage that moved it, the input it used, and the arithmetic that proves it

Slate 20261008Games 2Checks 305Schema metric_evolution_report_v1Built 2026-10-09 09:11Z

Verdict across the slate

305 invariants checked across 2 games: NO DEFECT FOUND

How to read this, and what a defect looks like

Every figure below is shown with the arithmetic that produced it and a verdict beside it, so a disagreement can be pointed at a specific line rather than at the system as a whole.

Stage chain. Each game lists every stage that touched the score, the score after it, and whether it changed the target. Most stages move nothing on most games; a chain that showed only movement would misrepresent it. A stage reporting a delta while changed_target is false computed an adjustment and did not apply it, which is normal and is stated.
Blend arithmetic. The KPI blend must satisfy blended = baseline + weight x (kpi_only - baseline) for all three targets. A FAIL here means the layer reported a number it did not compute.
Rounding. Published integers must be the rounding of the blended runs under the documented tie rule. A FAIL means the published score and the continuous line describe different games.
Log5 additivity. For every player metric, own skill plus opponent plus the Log5 remainder must equal the total against the league, exactly. A FAIL means the decomposition is not a decomposition.
Direction. A green delta helps the subject, a red one hurts him. Strikeouts invert for a hitter. If an elite arm's opponent shows green strikeouts, the orientation is wrong and the whole player section is suspect.
Measured versus published. The KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The per-player metric adjustments here are a measurement of the same catalog at player level, not what the pipeline published; the one club-wide ratio the pipeline actually applied to hitter lines is printed beside them.
Integer versus continuous. The integer player line is a simulation draw reconciled to the box score. The continuous expected_* beside it is the model's own view and is the rankable quantity. Judging the model by the integer is how a working model looks broken.

Slate overview

Game	Published	p(home)	Stages	Stages that moved it	KPI applied	Δ away runs	Δ home runs	Simulation draw chosen on	0-out starter
20261008_CLE@CHW	5 - 4	0.4950	8	2	no	-0.1316	-0.0239	-	no
20261008_TB@NYY	4 - 3	0.4948	8	2	no	-0.0699	+0.2635	-	no

KPI model in force. candidate 20261009T091154Z_803d216f, 48 features built from 40 registered KPIs, blend weights {"home_runs": 0.38, "away_runs": 0.34, "home_win": 0.0}, frozen evaluation ends 2026-09-27. A target whose weight is zero contributes nothing by construction: the winner probability carries weight zero while its walk-forward verdict is inconclusive, so every win-probability movement below is expected to be exactly zero.

Per game

20261008_CLE@CHW — published 5-4, 153 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20261008_CLE@CHW__20261009T003924Z.json, phase post_start_rerun, generated 2026-10-09T00:39:24, first pitch 2026-10-09T00:00:00.
Published 5 - 4 with p(home) 0.495000. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; ? of ? draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	3.711918501925803 - 5.140895541166179	0	0	0	0	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 5	+0.2881	-0.1409	+0.2881	-0.1409	yes	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	5 - 4	+1.0000	-1.0000	+1.2881	-1.1409	yes	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `kpi_layer`	5.0 - 4.0	0	0	+1.2881	-1.1409	no	away -0.1316; home -0.0239 Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept
5. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	5 - 4	0	0	+1.2881	-1.1409	no	away -0.4400; home -0.1329 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	5 - 4	0	0	+1.2881	-1.1409	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
7. `capped_target`	5 - 4	0	0	+1.2881	-1.1409	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8. `simulation_result`	5 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

A stage reporting its own adjustment while Changed target reads no computed a movement that a later reconciliation absorbed, or that rounded away at the integer score. That is recorded rather than hidden.

KPI layer withheld. values_fresh. The published score is the pre-KPI baseline.

Per-player metric movement

CLE against Joey Cantillo (LHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CLE hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 11.6634 of 35.456 projected batters (32.9%) and the 4 projected relievers for the remaining 67.1%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is OUTSIDE that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Steven Kwan	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.950 → 0.937	-0.013	0.2169	0.2296n=620 Good	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2296	+0.057	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.2296 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.98 at 0.671 share (log5 0.2251 vs pen 0.2125) = x0.9866 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.556 → 0.600	+0.044	0.2212	0.1013n=620 Very good	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1013	-0.539	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.1013 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.1178 at 0.671 share (log5 0.1133 vs pen 0.2434) = x1.079 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.562 → 0.574	+0.011	0.0889	0.1280n=620 Very good	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1280	+0.175	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.1280 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x1.0304 at 0.671 share (log5 0.1319 vs pen 0.0918) = x1.0204 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.053 → 0.051	-0.003	0.0304	0.0125n=620 Poor	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0125	-0.081	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.0125 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9291 at 0.671 share (log5 0.0116 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.9524 \| starter alone would have been 0
José Ramírez	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.783 → 0.773	-0.011	0.2169	0.2095n=531 Below average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2095	-0.034	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.2095 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9795 at 0.671 share (log5 0.2052 vs pen 0.2125) = x0.9862 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.717 → 0.771	+0.054	0.2212	0.1376n=531 Very good	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1376	-0.388	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.1376 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.1125 at 0.671 share (log5 0.1531 vs pen 0.2434) = x1.0755 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.658 → 0.672	+0.014	0.0889	0.1086n=531 Good	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1086	+0.091	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.1086 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x1.0311 at 0.671 share (log5 0.1120 vs pen 0.0918) = x1.0209 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.114 → 0.109	-0.005	0.0304	0.0252n=531 Below average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0252	-0.024	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.0252 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9299 at 0.671 share (log5 0.0234 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.953 \| starter alone would have been 0
Chase DeLauter	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.936 → 0.923	-0.012	0.2169	0.2364n=543 Very good	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2364	+0.086	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.2364 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9802 at 0.671 share (log5 0.2318 vs pen 0.2125) = x0.9867 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.804 → 0.864	+0.059	0.2212	0.1534n=543 Good	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1534	-0.296	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.1534 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.1102 at 0.671 share (log5 0.1703 vs pen 0.2434) = x1.0739 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.550 → 0.561	+0.011	0.0889	0.1051n=543 Good	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1051	+0.071	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.1051 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x1.0312 at 0.671 share (log5 0.1084 vs pen 0.0918) = x1.0209 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.124 → 0.118	-0.006	0.0304	0.0298n=543 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0298	-0.003	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.0298 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9302 at 0.671 share (log5 0.0277 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.9532 \| starter alone would have been 0
Jo Adell	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.823 → 0.812	-0.011	0.2169	0.2185n=656 Average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2185	+0.007	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.2185 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9798 at 0.671 share (log5 0.2140 vs pen 0.2125) = x0.9864 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.194 → 1.272	+0.079	0.2212	0.2367n=656 Average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2367	+0.065	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.2367 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.0983 at 0.671 share (log5 0.2599 vs pen 0.2434) = x1.066 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.416 → 0.425	+0.009	0.0889	0.0575n=656 Poor	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0575	-0.133	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.0575 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x1.033 at 0.671 share (log5 0.0594 vs pen 0.0918) = x1.0221 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.147 → 0.140	-0.007	0.0304	0.0337n=656 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0337	+0.014	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.0337 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9305 at 0.671 share (log5 0.0314 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.9534 \| starter alone would have been 0
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.777 → 0.767	-0.011	0.2169	0.2187n=417 Average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2187	+0.007	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.2187 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9798 at 0.671 share (log5 0.2143 vs pen 0.2125) = x0.9864 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.091 → 1.163	+0.073	0.2212	0.2293n=417 Average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2293	+0.031	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.2293 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.0993 at 0.671 share (log5 0.2520 vs pen 0.2434) = x1.0666 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.406 → 0.415	+0.009	0.0889	0.0906n=417 Average	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0906	+0.007	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.0906 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x1.0318 at 0.671 share (log5 0.0935 vs pen 0.0918) = x1.0213 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.129 → 0.123	-0.006	0.0304	0.0353n=417 Good	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0353	+0.019	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.0353 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9306 at 0.671 share (log5 0.0328 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.9534 \| starter alone would have been 0
Angel Martínez	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.777 → 0.766	-0.010	0.2169	0.2293n=408 Good	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2293	+0.049	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.2293 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.98 at 0.671 share (log5 0.2247 vs pen 0.2125) = x0.9866 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.106 → 1.181	+0.075	0.2212	0.2185n=408 Average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2185	-0.011	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.2185 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.1009 at 0.671 share (log5 0.2405 vs pen 0.2434) = x1.0677 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.244 → 0.249	+0.005	0.0889	0.0429n=408 Poor	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0429	-0.181	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.0429 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x1.0335 at 0.671 share (log5 0.0443 vs pen 0.0918) = x1.0225 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.163 → 0.155	-0.007	0.0304	0.0387n=408 Good	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0387	+0.033	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.0387 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9308 at 0.671 share (log5 0.0360 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.9536 \| starter alone would have been 0
Travis Bazzana	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.736 → 0.726	-0.010	0.2169	0.2129n=506 Average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2129	-0.015	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.2129 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9796 at 0.671 share (log5 0.2086 vs pen 0.2125) = x0.9863 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.977 → 1.044	+0.067	0.2212	0.2087n=506 Average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2087	-0.048	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.2087 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.1023 at 0.671 share (log5 0.2301 vs pen 0.2434) = x1.0686 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.430 → 0.439	+0.009	0.0889	0.1033n=506 Good	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1033	+0.055	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.1033 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x1.0313 at 0.671 share (log5 0.1066 vs pen 0.0918) = x1.021 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.105 → 0.100	-0.005	0.0304	0.0299n=506 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0299	-0.002	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.0299 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9302 at 0.671 share (log5 0.0278 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.9532 \| starter alone would have been 0
Austin Hedges	C	Hitswhole staff	0.621 → 0.612	-0.009	0.2169	0.2144n=243 Average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2144	-0.009	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.2144 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9797 at 0.671 share (log5 0.2100 vs pen 0.2125) = x0.9864 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.767 → 0.821	+0.054	0.2212	0.1912n=243 Average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1912	-0.105	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.1912 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.1048 at 0.671 share (log5 0.2112 vs pen 0.2434) = x1.0703 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.461 → 0.470	+0.010	0.0889	0.0983n=243 Average	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0983	+0.033	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.0983 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x1.0315 at 0.671 share (log5 0.1014 vs pen 0.0918) = x1.0211 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.097 → 0.093	-0.005	0.0304	0.0277n=243 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0277	-0.010	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.0277 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9301 at 0.671 share (log5 0.0257 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.9531 \| starter alone would have been 0
Brayan Rocchio	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.744 → 0.734	-0.010	0.2169	0.2238n=576 Average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2238	+0.025	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.2238 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x0.9799 at 0.671 share (log5 0.2193 vs pen 0.2125) = x0.9865 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.633 → 0.680	+0.047	0.2212	0.1501n=576 Good	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1501	-0.253	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.1501 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x1.1107 at 0.671 share (log5 0.1667 vs pen 0.2434) = x1.0743 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.348 → 0.356	+0.008	0.0889	0.0699n=576 Below average	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0699	-0.068	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.0699 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x1.0325 at 0.671 share (log5 0.0722 vs pen 0.0918) = x1.0218 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.093 → 0.088	-0.004	0.0304	0.0250n=576 Below average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0250	-0.019	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.329 share (log5 0.0250 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9299 at 0.671 share (log5 0.0233 vs pen 0.0283) = x0.953 \| starter alone would have been 0
STARTER Parker Messick21.006 BF	Starter	Hits	4.312 → 4.271	-0.041	0.2169	0.2064n=727 Good	0.21487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2045	-0.219	-0.043	+0.002 ok
		Strikeouts	5.775 → 6.494	+0.718	0.2212	0.2536n=727 Good	0.25017/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2852	+0.681	+0.606	+0.056 ok
		Walks	1.574 → 1.729	+0.155	0.0889	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.09747/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0745	-0.443	+0.179	-0.039 ok
		Home runs	0.433 → 0.514	+0.081	0.0304	0.0252n=727 Good	0.03607/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0299	-0.109	+0.118	-0.019 ok
RELIEVER Erik Sabrowski4.363 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.525 → 0.520	-0.005	0.2169	0.1819n=194 Very good	0.21487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1801	-0.152	-0.009	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.625 → 1.803	+0.178	0.2212	0.3346n=194 Very good	0.25017/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3712	+0.495	+0.126	+0.034 ok
		Walks	0.625 → 0.682	+0.057	0.0889	0.1280n=194 Poor	0.09747/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1397	+0.171	+0.037	+0.014 ok
		Home runs	0.046 → 0.055	+0.009	0.0304	0.0259n=194 Good	0.03607/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0307	-0.020	+0.025	-0.004 ok
RELIEVER Tim Herrin2.8497 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.857 → 0.849	-0.008	0.2169	0.2029n=237 Good	0.21487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2010	-0.040	-0.006	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.179 → 1.331	+0.153	0.2212	0.2262n=237 Average	0.25017/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2555	+0.014	+0.082	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.393 → 0.430	+0.037	0.0889	0.1065n=237 Below average	0.09747/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1165	+0.050	+0.024	+0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.069 → 0.082	+0.013	0.0304	0.0272n=237 Average	0.03607/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0322	-0.009	+0.016	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Shawn Armstrong2.1759 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.452 → 0.447	-0.004	0.2169	0.2076n=148 Average	0.21487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2056	-0.020	-0.004	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.474 → 0.536	+0.062	0.2212	0.2180n=148 Average	0.25017/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2465	-0.007	+0.063	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.228 → 0.249	+0.021	0.0889	0.1048n=148 Below average	0.09747/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1146	+0.035	+0.019	+0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.061 → 0.072	+0.011	0.0304	0.0279n=148 Average	0.03607/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0330	-0.005	+0.012	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Daniel Espino2.0665 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.448 → 0.444	-0.004	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2148	0	-0.004	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.457 → 0.517	+0.060	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.25017/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2501	0	+0.060	0 ok
		Walks	0.184 → 0.201	+0.018	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09747/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0974	0	+0.018	0 ok
		Home runs	0.063 → 0.074	+0.012	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03607/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0360	0	+0.012	0 ok
RELIEVER Cade Smith1.8446 BF	Closer	Hits	0.469 → 0.464	-0.005	0.2169	0.1909n=281 Very good	0.21487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1891	-0.048	-0.004	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.574 → 1.747	+0.173	0.2212	0.3315n=281 Very good	0.25017/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3680	+0.203	+0.053	+0.014 ok
		Walks	0.228 → 0.250	+0.022	0.0889	0.0776n=281 Good	0.09747/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0851	-0.021	+0.016	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.049 → 0.058	+0.009	0.0304	0.0255n=281 Good	0.03607/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0303	-0.009	+0.010	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Hunter Gaddis1.6275 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.348 → 0.345	-0.003	0.2169	0.2138n=252 Average	0.21487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2118	-0.005	-0.003	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.361 → 0.408	+0.047	0.2212	0.2220n=252 Average	0.25017/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2509	+0.001	+0.047	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.143 → 0.157	+0.014	0.0889	0.0879n=252 Average	0.09747/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0964	-0.002	+0.014	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.048 → 0.057	+0.009	0.0304	0.0294n=252 Average	0.03607/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0349	-0.002	+0.009	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Joey Cantillo1.1547 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.244 → 0.242	-0.002	0.2169	0.2118n=687 Average	0.21487/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2098	-0.006	-0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.284 → 0.320	+0.036	0.2212	0.2460n=687 Good	0.25017/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2770	+0.029	+0.033	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.130 → 0.142	+0.012	0.0889	0.1125n=687 Below average	0.09747/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1230	+0.027	+0.010	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.031 → 0.037	+0.006	0.0304	0.0270n=687 Good	0.03607/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0320	-0.004	+0.006	-0.001 ok

CHW against Davis Martin (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CHW hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 21.006 of 37.088 projected batters (56.6%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 43.4%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Chase Meidroth	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.968 → 0.910	-0.058	0.2169	0.2330n=635 Good	0.2064n=727 Good	0.2220	+0.068	-0.044	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9528 at 0.566 share (log5 0.2220 vs his 0.2064) + bullpen x0.9238 at 0.434 share (log5 0.2152 vs pen 0.2000) = x0.9402 \| starter alone would have been -0.046
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.026 → 1.204	+0.178	0.2212	0.2176n=635 Average	0.2536n=727 Good	0.2497	-0.015	+0.137	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.1474 at 0.566 share (log5 0.2497 vs his 0.2536) + bullpen x1.2078 at 0.434 share (log5 0.2628 vs pen 0.2669) = x1.1736 \| starter alone would have been +0.151
		Walkswhole staff	0.402 → 0.380	-0.022	0.0889	0.0936n=635 Average	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.0715	+0.020	-0.089	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.7639 at 0.566 share (log5 0.0715 vs his 0.0678) + bullpen x1.1805 at 0.434 share (log5 0.1105 vs pen 0.1051) = x0.9445 \| starter alone would have been -0.095
		Home runswhole staff	0.103 → 0.089	-0.015	0.0304	0.0267n=635 Average	0.0252n=727 Good	0.0221	-0.015	-0.022	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8287 at 0.566 share (log5 0.0221 vs his 0.0252) + bullpen x0.8998 at 0.434 share (log5 0.0240 vs pen 0.0274) = x0.8595 \| starter alone would have been -0.018
Randal Grichuk	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.842 → 0.792	-0.050	0.2169	0.2384n=279 Very good	0.2064n=727 Good	0.2272	+0.085	-0.041	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9531 at 0.566 share (log5 0.2272 vs his 0.2064) + bullpen x0.9243 at 0.434 share (log5 0.2204 vs pen 0.2000) = x0.9406 \| starter alone would have been -0.040
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.957 → 1.123	+0.166	0.2212	0.2190n=279 Average	0.2536n=727 Good	0.2512	-0.009	+0.128	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.1471 at 0.566 share (log5 0.2512 vs his 0.2536) + bullpen x1.2073 at 0.434 share (log5 0.2644 vs pen 0.2669) = x1.1732 \| starter alone would have been +0.141
		Walkswhole staff	0.227 → 0.214	-0.013	0.0889	0.0542n=279 Poor	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.0410	-0.137	-0.083	+0.031 ok
		split	starter x0.7561 at 0.566 share (log5 0.0410 vs his 0.0678) + bullpen x1.1898 at 0.434 share (log5 0.0645 vs pen 0.1051) = x0.9442 \| starter alone would have been -0.055
		Home runswhole staff	0.160 → 0.138	-0.022	0.0304	0.0424n=279 Very good	0.0252n=727 Good	0.0352	+0.047	-0.020	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.831 at 0.566 share (log5 0.0352 vs his 0.0252) + bullpen x0.9012 at 0.434 share (log5 0.0382 vs pen 0.0274) = x0.8614 \| starter alone would have been -0.027
Miguel Vargas	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.818 → 0.767	-0.050	0.2169	0.2136n=695 Average	0.2064n=727 Good	0.2033	-0.014	-0.044	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9517 at 0.566 share (log5 0.2033 vs his 0.2064) + bullpen x0.922 at 0.434 share (log5 0.1969 vs pen 0.2000) = x0.9388 \| starter alone would have been -0.040
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.833 → 0.985	+0.152	0.2212	0.1826n=695 Good	0.2536n=727 Good	0.2109	-0.164	+0.138	-0.018 ok
		split	starter x1.155 at 0.566 share (log5 0.2109 vs his 0.2536) + bullpen x1.2191 at 0.434 share (log5 0.2226 vs pen 0.2669) = x1.1828 \| starter alone would have been +0.129
		Walkswhole staff	0.557 → 0.527	-0.031	0.0889	0.1346n=695 Very good	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.1039	+0.194	-0.090	-0.041 ok
		split	starter x0.7721 at 0.566 share (log5 0.1039 vs his 0.0678) + bullpen x1.1709 at 0.434 share (log5 0.1576 vs pen 0.1051) = x0.945 \| starter alone would have been -0.127
		Home runswhole staff	0.185 → 0.160	-0.026	0.0304	0.0428n=695 Very good	0.0252n=727 Good	0.0355	+0.053	-0.022	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.831 at 0.566 share (log5 0.0355 vs his 0.0252) + bullpen x0.9013 at 0.434 share (log5 0.0386 vs pen 0.0274) = x0.8615 \| starter alone would have been -0.031
Munetaka Murakami	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.738 → 0.691	-0.046	0.2169	0.1915n=544 Poor	0.2064n=727 Good	0.1820	-0.109	-0.045	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9504 at 0.566 share (log5 0.1820 vs his 0.2064) + bullpen x0.92 at 0.434 share (log5 0.1762 vs pen 0.2000) = x0.9372 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.704 → 1.945	+0.241	0.2212	0.3438n=544 Poor	0.2536n=727 Good	0.3853	+0.528	+0.140	+0.039 ok
		split	starter x1.1208 at 0.566 share (log5 0.3853 vs his 0.2536) + bullpen x1.1686 at 0.434 share (log5 0.4018 vs pen 0.2669) = x1.1415 \| starter alone would have been +0.206
		Walkswhole staff	0.550 → 0.519	-0.030	0.0889	0.1532n=544 Very good	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.1189	+0.277	-0.091	-0.057 ok
		split	starter x0.7759 at 0.566 share (log5 0.1189 vs his 0.0678) + bullpen x1.1666 at 0.434 share (log5 0.1787 vs pen 0.1051) = x0.9453 \| starter alone would have been -0.123
		Home runswhole staff	0.217 → 0.188	-0.030	0.0304	0.0532n=544 Very good	0.0252n=727 Good	0.0443	+0.099	-0.022	-0.016 ok
		split	starter x0.8326 at 0.566 share (log5 0.0443 vs his 0.0252) + bullpen x0.9022 at 0.434 share (log5 0.0480 vs pen 0.0274) = x0.8628 \| starter alone would have been -0.036
Tommy Pham	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.639 → 0.600	-0.039	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2064n=727 Good	0.2064	0	-0.036	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9519 at 0.566 share (log5 0.2064 vs his 0.2064) + bullpen x0.9223 at 0.434 share (log5 0.2000 vs pen 0.2000) = x0.9391 \| starter alone would have been -0.031
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.986 → 1.156	+0.170	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2536n=727 Good	0.2536	0	+0.112	0 ok
		split	starter x1.1466 at 0.566 share (log5 0.2536 vs his 0.2536) + bullpen x1.2066 at 0.434 share (log5 0.2669 vs pen 0.2669) = x1.1726 \| starter alone would have been +0.145
		Walkswhole staff	0.361 → 0.341	-0.020	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.0678	0	-0.073	0 ok
		split	starter x0.763 at 0.566 share (log5 0.0678 vs his 0.0678) + bullpen x1.1816 at 0.434 share (log5 0.1051 vs pen 0.1051) = x0.9445 \| starter alone would have been -0.086
		Home runswhole staff	0.104 → 0.089	-0.015	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0252n=727 Good	0.0252	0	-0.018	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8292 at 0.566 share (log5 0.0252 vs his 0.0252) + bullpen x0.9001 at 0.434 share (log5 0.0274 vs pen 0.0274) = x0.8599 \| starter alone would have been -0.018
Brenton Doyle	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.695 → 0.653	-0.042	0.2169	0.2195n=218 Average	0.2064n=727 Good	0.2090	+0.010	-0.039	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.952 at 0.566 share (log5 0.2090 vs his 0.2064) + bullpen x0.9225 at 0.434 share (log5 0.2025 vs pen 0.2000) = x0.9392 \| starter alone would have been -0.033
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.335 → 1.537	+0.203	0.2212	0.3029n=218 Poor	0.2536n=727 Good	0.3420	+0.305	+0.121	+0.025 ok
		split	starter x1.1293 at 0.566 share (log5 0.3420 vs his 0.2536) + bullpen x1.181 at 0.434 share (log5 0.3577 vs pen 0.2669) = x1.1517 \| starter alone would have been +0.172
		Walkswhole staff	0.240 → 0.226	-0.013	0.0889	0.0670n=218 Below average	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.0508	-0.082	-0.079	+0.018 ok
		split	starter x0.7586 at 0.566 share (log5 0.0508 vs his 0.0678) + bullpen x1.1868 at 0.434 share (log5 0.0795 vs pen 0.1051) = x0.9443 \| starter alone would have been -0.058
		Home runswhole staff	0.111 → 0.095	-0.015	0.0304	0.0291n=218 Average	0.0252n=727 Good	0.0241	-0.005	-0.019	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.829 at 0.566 share (log5 0.0241 vs his 0.0252) + bullpen x0.9 at 0.434 share (log5 0.0262 vs pen 0.0274) = x0.8598 \| starter alone would have been -0.019
Kyle Teel	C	Hitswhole staff	0.694 → 0.652	-0.042	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2064n=727 Good	0.2064	0	-0.040	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9519 at 0.566 share (log5 0.2064 vs his 0.2064) + bullpen x0.9223 at 0.434 share (log5 0.2000 vs pen 0.2000) = x0.9391 \| starter alone would have been -0.033
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.482 → 1.738	+0.256	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2536n=727 Good	0.2536	0	+0.124	0 ok
		split	starter x1.1466 at 0.566 share (log5 0.2536 vs his 0.2536) + bullpen x1.2066 at 0.434 share (log5 0.2669 vs pen 0.2669) = x1.1726 \| starter alone would have been +0.217
		Walkswhole staff	0.388 → 0.366	-0.021	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.0678	0	-0.081	0 ok
		split	starter x0.763 at 0.566 share (log5 0.0678 vs his 0.0678) + bullpen x1.1816 at 0.434 share (log5 0.1051 vs pen 0.1051) = x0.9445 \| starter alone would have been -0.092
		Home runswhole staff	0.112 → 0.096	-0.016	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0252n=727 Good	0.0252	0	-0.020	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8292 at 0.566 share (log5 0.0252 vs his 0.0252) + bullpen x0.9001 at 0.434 share (log5 0.0274 vs pen 0.0274) = x0.8599 \| starter alone would have been -0.019
Braden Montgomery	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.713 → 0.669	-0.044	0.2169	0.2100n=362 Below average	0.2064n=727 Good	0.1998	-0.025	-0.038	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9515 at 0.566 share (log5 0.1998 vs his 0.2064) + bullpen x0.9217 at 0.434 share (log5 0.1936 vs pen 0.2000) = x0.9386 \| starter alone would have been -0.035
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.910 → 1.073	+0.162	0.2212	0.1991n=362 Average	0.2536n=727 Good	0.2293	-0.081	+0.118	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x1.1514 at 0.566 share (log5 0.2293 vs his 0.2536) + bullpen x1.2137 at 0.434 share (log5 0.2417 vs pen 0.2669) = x1.1784 \| starter alone would have been +0.138
		Walkswhole staff	0.318 → 0.300	-0.018	0.0889	0.1010n=362 Good	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.0773	+0.044	-0.077	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x0.7654 at 0.566 share (log5 0.0773 vs his 0.0678) + bullpen x1.1788 at 0.434 share (log5 0.1191 vs pen 0.1051) = x0.9447 \| starter alone would have been -0.074
		Home runswhole staff	0.090 → 0.078	-0.013	0.0304	0.0224n=362 Below average	0.0252n=727 Good	0.0186	-0.029	-0.019	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.828 at 0.566 share (log5 0.0186 vs his 0.0252) + bullpen x0.8994 at 0.434 share (log5 0.0201 vs pen 0.0274) = x0.859 \| starter alone would have been -0.015
Colson Montgomery	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.628 → 0.589	-0.039	0.2169	0.1929n=630 Poor	0.2064n=727 Good	0.1834	-0.085	-0.037	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9505 at 0.566 share (log5 0.1834 vs his 0.2064) + bullpen x0.9201 at 0.434 share (log5 0.1775 vs pen 0.2000) = x0.9373 \| starter alone would have been -0.031
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.477 → 1.685	+0.208	0.2212	0.3459n=630 Poor	0.2536n=727 Good	0.3875	+0.443	+0.115	+0.033 ok
		split	starter x1.1203 at 0.566 share (log5 0.3875 vs his 0.2536) + bullpen x1.168 at 0.434 share (log5 0.4040 vs pen 0.2669) = x1.141 \| starter alone would have been +0.178
		Walkswhole staff	0.336 → 0.317	-0.019	0.0889	0.0836n=630 Average	0.0678n=727 Very good	0.0637	-0.019	-0.075	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.7619 at 0.566 share (log5 0.0637 vs his 0.0678) + bullpen x1.1829 at 0.434 share (log5 0.0988 vs pen 0.1051) = x0.9444 \| starter alone would have been -0.080
		Home runswhole staff	0.146 → 0.126	-0.020	0.0304	0.0436n=630 Very good	0.0252n=727 Good	0.0363	+0.047	-0.018	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.8311 at 0.566 share (log5 0.0363 vs his 0.0252) + bullpen x0.9013 at 0.434 share (log5 0.0393 vs pen 0.0274) = x0.8615 \| starter alone would have been -0.025
STARTER Hagen Smith11.6634 BF	Starter	Hits	2.208 → 2.256	+0.048	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22169/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2216	0	+0.055	0 ok
		Strikeouts	2.670 → 2.159	-0.512	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.17889/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1788	0	-0.494	0 ok
		Walks	1.057 → 1.074	+0.016	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09039/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0903	0	+0.016	0 ok
		Home runs	0.423 → 0.395	-0.028	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.02849/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0284	0	-0.023	0 ok
RELIEVER Grant Taylor7.2448 BF	Closer	Hits	1.120 → 1.145	+0.025	0.2169	0.1974n=333 Good	0.22169/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2018	-0.141	+0.034	-0.002 ok
		Strikeouts	2.035 → 1.677	-0.359	0.2212	0.2970n=333 Very good	0.17889/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2447	+0.549	-0.307	-0.072 ok
		Walks	0.466 → 0.473	+0.007	0.0889	0.0897n=333 Average	0.09039/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0911	+0.006	+0.010	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.089 → 0.083	-0.006	0.0304	0.0264n=333 Good	0.02849/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0247	-0.029	-0.014	+0.002 ok
RELIEVER Anthony Kay5.4985 BF	Setup Man	Hits	1.763 → 1.801	+0.038	0.2169	0.2242n=686 Below average	0.22169/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2291	+0.041	+0.026	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.252 → 0.202	-0.050	0.2212	0.1837n=686 Below average	0.17889/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1471	-0.206	-0.233	+0.032 ok
		Walks	1.092 → 1.109	+0.017	0.0889	0.0818n=686 Average	0.09039/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0831	-0.039	+0.008	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.221 → 0.207	-0.014	0.0304	0.0305n=686 Average	0.02849/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0285	+0.001	-0.011	0 ok
RELIEVER Jordan Hicks4.523 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.912 → 0.932	+0.020	0.2169	0.2054n=216 Good	0.22169/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2100	-0.052	+0.021	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.216 → 0.997	-0.220	0.2212	0.2760n=216 Good	0.17889/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2261	+0.248	-0.192	-0.034 ok
		Walks	0.601 → 0.610	+0.009	0.0889	0.1258n=216 Poor	0.09039/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1277	+0.167	+0.006	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.098 → 0.092	-0.006	0.0304	0.0265n=216 Good	0.02849/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0248	-0.018	-0.009	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Bryan Hudson2.8837 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	1.024 → 1.046	+0.022	0.2169	0.2287n=282 Below average	0.22169/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2336	+0.034	+0.014	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.775 → 0.625	-0.150	0.2212	0.2119n=282 Average	0.17889/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1709	-0.027	-0.122	+0.004 ok
		Walks	0.230 → 0.234	+0.004	0.0889	0.0728n=282 Good	0.09039/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0740	-0.046	+0.004	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.073 → 0.068	-0.005	0.0304	0.0255n=282 Good	0.02849/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0238	-0.014	-0.006	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER David Sandlin2.1723 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.470 → 0.480	+0.010	0.2169	0.2164n=167 Average	0.22169/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2211	-0.001	+0.010	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.507 → 0.411	-0.096	0.2212	0.2336n=167 Average	0.17889/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1894	+0.027	-0.092	-0.004 ok
		Walks	0.181 → 0.184	+0.003	0.0889	0.0832n=167 Average	0.09039/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0845	-0.012	+0.003	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.073 → 0.068	-0.005	0.0304	0.0335n=167 Below average	0.02849/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0313	+0.007	-0.004	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Erick Fedde1.0397 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.234 → 0.239	+0.005	0.2169	0.2253n=606 Below average	0.22169/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2301	+0.009	+0.005	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.177 → 0.141	-0.036	0.2212	0.1701n=606 Poor	0.17889/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1358	-0.053	-0.044	+0.008 ok
		Walks	0.090 → 0.091	+0.001	0.0889	0.0865n=606 Average	0.09039/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0878	-0.003	+0.001	0 ok
		Home runs	0.036 → 0.034	-0.002	0.0304	0.0347n=606 Below average	0.02849/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0325	+0.004	-0.002	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Davis Martin0.4283 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.099 → 0.101	+0.002	0.2169	0.2302n=617 Below average	0.22169/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2352	+0.006	+0.002	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.086 → 0.069	-0.017	0.2212	0.2004n=617 Below average	0.17889/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1612	-0.009	-0.018	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.033 → 0.034	+0.001	0.0889	0.0775n=617 Good	0.09039/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0787	-0.005	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.011 → 0.010	-0.001	0.0304	0.0259n=617 Good	0.02849/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0242	-0.002	-0.001	+0.000 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Parker Messick	Starter	21.0	5.0	5.040	5 / 4.312	4 / 5.775	3 / 1.574	3 / 1.632	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.2	1.0	1.000	1 / 0.857	1 / 1.179	0 / 0.393	0 / 0.307	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Erik Sabrowski	Setup Man	4.2	1.0	1.000	1 / 0.525	2 / 1.625	0 / 0.625	0 / 0.376	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Cade Smith	Closer	3.7	2.0	1.000	1 / 0.469	3 / 1.574	1 / 0.228	0 / 0.157	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Hagen Smith	Starter	11.7	2.2	2.799	1 / 2.208	3 / 2.670	1 / 1.057	0 / 0.834	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.5	1.0	1.003	1 / 0.912	2 / 1.216	0 / 0.601	1 / 0.489	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.3	1.0	1.003	1 / 1.024	1 / 0.775	2 / 0.230	1 / 0.317	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Anthony Kay	Setup Man	8.9	2.0	2.005	2 / 1.763	1 / 0.252	2 / 1.092	2 / 0.670	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Grant Taylor	Closer	6.6	2.1	1.672	1 / 1.120	1 / 2.035	0 / 0.466	1 / 0.333	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity136 checks	PASS	136 of 136 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.04
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Parker Messick projected 21.0 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 5
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 2.7994
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Hagen Smith projected 11.7 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band4 checks	PASS	4 of 4 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

20261008_TB@NYY — published 4-3, 152 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20261008_TB@NYY.json, phase pregame, generated 2026-10-08T02:53:13, first pitch 2026-10-09T00:00:00.
Published 4 - 3 with p(home) 0.494846. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; ? of ? draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	4.377499254087203 - 4.138449437843917	0	0	0	0	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 4	-0.3775	-0.1384	-0.3775	-0.1384	yes	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	4 - 3	0	-1.0000	-0.3775	-1.1384	yes	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `kpi_layer`	4.0 - 3.0	0	0	-0.3775	-1.1384	no	away -0.0699; home +0.2635 Savant KPI blend computed and withheld; baseline kept
5. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 3	0	0	-0.3775	-1.1384	no	away -0.1215; home -0.1746 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 3	0	0	-0.3775	-1.1384	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
7. `capped_target`	4 - 3	0	0	-0.3775	-1.1384	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8. `simulation_result`	4 - 3	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

KPI layer withheld. values_fresh. The published score is the pre-KPI baseline.

Per-player metric movement

TB against Tyler Wells (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to TB hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 19.9841 of 36.528 projected batters (54.7%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 45.3%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Yandy Díaz	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.938 → 0.852	-0.086	0.2169	0.2464n=678 Very good	0.1844n=296 Very good	0.2106	+0.134	-0.147	-0.015 ok
		split	starter x0.8549 at 0.547 share (log5 0.2106 vs his 0.1844) + bullpen x0.9723 at 0.453 share (log5 0.2395 vs pen 0.2106) = x0.9081 \| starter alone would have been -0.136
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.844 → 0.946	+0.101	0.2212	0.1455n=678 Very good	0.2545n=296 Good	0.1699	-0.343	+0.151	-0.040 ok
		split	starter x1.1675 at 0.547 share (log5 0.1699 vs his 0.2545) + bullpen x1.0624 at 0.453 share (log5 0.1546 vs pen 0.2337) = x1.1199 \| starter alone would have been +0.141
		Walkswhole staff	0.473 → 0.534	+0.061	0.0889	0.0835n=678 Average	0.1125n=296 Below average	0.1058	-0.024	+0.107	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x1.2667 at 0.547 share (log5 0.1058 vs his 0.1125) + bullpen x0.963 at 0.453 share (log5 0.0804 vs pen 0.0856) = x1.1292 \| starter alone would have been +0.126
		Home runswhole staff	0.177 → 0.156	-0.021	0.0304	0.0319n=678 Average	0.0264n=296 Good	0.0276	+0.007	-0.018	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8675 at 0.547 share (log5 0.0276 vs his 0.0264) + bullpen x0.8989 at 0.453 share (log5 0.0286 vs pen 0.0273) = x0.8817 \| starter alone would have been -0.023
Jonathan Aranda	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.860 → 0.779	-0.081	0.2169	0.2302n=661 Good	0.1844n=296 Very good	0.1962	+0.058	-0.141	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.8523 at 0.547 share (log5 0.1962 vs his 0.1844) + bullpen x0.9717 at 0.453 share (log5 0.2237 vs pen 0.2106) = x0.9064 \| starter alone would have been -0.127
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.310 → 1.447	+0.137	0.2212	0.2420n=661 Average	0.2545n=296 Good	0.2773	+0.090	+0.144	+0.009 ok
		split	starter x1.1459 at 0.547 share (log5 0.2773 vs his 0.2545) + bullpen x1.0549 at 0.453 share (log5 0.2553 vs pen 0.2337) = x1.1047 \| starter alone would have been +0.191
		Walkswhole staff	0.460 → 0.518	+0.058	0.0889	0.1007n=661 Good	0.1125n=296 Below average	0.1270	+0.051	+0.102	+0.012 ok
		split	starter x1.2604 at 0.547 share (log5 0.1270 vs his 0.1125) + bullpen x0.9636 at 0.453 share (log5 0.0971 vs pen 0.0856) = x1.126 \| starter alone would have been +0.120
		Home runswhole staff	0.152 → 0.134	-0.018	0.0304	0.0325n=661 Average	0.0264n=296 Good	0.0282	+0.009	-0.017	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8676 at 0.547 share (log5 0.0282 vs his 0.0264) + bullpen x0.899 at 0.453 share (log5 0.0292 vs pen 0.0273) = x0.8818 \| starter alone would have been -0.020
Junior Caminero	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.801 → 0.726	-0.075	0.2169	0.2330n=695 Good	0.1844n=296 Very good	0.1987	+0.069	-0.139	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.8527 at 0.547 share (log5 0.1987 vs his 0.1844) + bullpen x0.9718 at 0.453 share (log5 0.2264 vs pen 0.2106) = x0.9066 \| starter alone would have been -0.118
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.889 → 0.990	+0.101	0.2212	0.1853n=695 Good	0.2545n=296 Good	0.2146	-0.153	+0.142	-0.017 ok
		split	starter x1.1585 at 0.547 share (log5 0.2146 vs his 0.2545) + bullpen x1.0593 at 0.453 share (log5 0.1962 vs pen 0.2337) = x1.1136 \| starter alone would have been +0.141
		Walkswhole staff	0.573 → 0.644	+0.071	0.0889	0.1100n=695 Good	0.1125n=296 Below average	0.1383	+0.090	+0.101	+0.020 ok
		split	starter x1.257 at 0.547 share (log5 0.1383 vs his 0.1125) + bullpen x0.964 at 0.453 share (log5 0.1061 vs pen 0.0856) = x1.1243 \| starter alone would have been +0.147
		Home runswhole staff	0.237 → 0.209	-0.028	0.0304	0.0522n=695 Very good	0.0264n=296 Good	0.0454	+0.093	-0.017	-0.012 ok
		split	starter x0.8699 at 0.547 share (log5 0.0454 vs his 0.0264) + bullpen x0.9008 at 0.453 share (log5 0.0470 vs pen 0.0273) = x0.8839 \| starter alone would have been -0.031
Victor Mesa Jr.	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.786 → 0.712	-0.074	0.2169	0.2223n=259 Average	0.1844n=296 Very good	0.1892	+0.022	-0.133	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.851 at 0.547 share (log5 0.1892 vs his 0.1844) + bullpen x0.9714 at 0.453 share (log5 0.2160 vs pen 0.2106) = x0.9055 \| starter alone would have been -0.117
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.014 → 1.126	+0.112	0.2212	0.2073n=259 Average	0.2545n=296 Good	0.2391	-0.057	+0.137	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x1.1536 at 0.547 share (log5 0.2391 vs his 0.2545) + bullpen x1.0576 at 0.453 share (log5 0.2192 vs pen 0.2337) = x1.1101 \| starter alone would have been +0.156
		Walkswhole staff	0.416 → 0.469	+0.053	0.0889	0.0888n=259 Average	0.1125n=296 Below average	0.1124	-0.000	+0.097	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.2648 at 0.547 share (log5 0.1124 vs his 0.1125) + bullpen x0.9632 at 0.453 share (log5 0.0856 vs pen 0.0856) = x1.1282 \| starter alone would have been +0.110
		Home runswhole staff	0.201 → 0.177	-0.024	0.0304	0.0421n=259 Good	0.0264n=296 Good	0.0366	+0.048	-0.017	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.8687 at 0.547 share (log5 0.0366 vs his 0.0264) + bullpen x0.8999 at 0.453 share (log5 0.0379 vs pen 0.0273) = x0.8828 \| starter alone would have been -0.026
Ryan Vilade	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.729 → 0.660	-0.069	0.2169	0.2163n=274 Average	0.1844n=296 Very good	0.1838	-0.002	-0.127	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.85 at 0.547 share (log5 0.1838 vs his 0.1844) + bullpen x0.9712 at 0.453 share (log5 0.2100 vs pen 0.2106) = x0.9049 \| starter alone would have been -0.109
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.059 → 1.171	+0.112	0.2212	0.2348n=274 Average	0.2545n=296 Good	0.2694	+0.053	+0.130	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.1475 at 0.547 share (log5 0.2694 vs his 0.2545) + bullpen x1.0555 at 0.453 share (log5 0.2478 vs pen 0.2337) = x1.1058 \| starter alone would have been +0.156
		Walkswhole staff	0.429 → 0.484	+0.055	0.0889	0.0931n=274 Average	0.1125n=296 Below average	0.1176	+0.016	+0.092	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.2632 at 0.547 share (log5 0.1176 vs his 0.1125) + bullpen x0.9633 at 0.453 share (log5 0.0897 vs pen 0.0856) = x1.1274 \| starter alone would have been +0.113
		Home runswhole staff	0.162 → 0.143	-0.019	0.0304	0.0354n=274 Good	0.0264n=296 Good	0.0307	+0.019	-0.016	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8679 at 0.547 share (log5 0.0307 vs his 0.0264) + bullpen x0.8992 at 0.453 share (log5 0.0318 vs pen 0.0273) = x0.8821 \| starter alone would have been -0.021
Liam Hicks	C	Hitswhole staff	0.795 → 0.721	-0.074	0.2169	0.2335n=551 Good	0.1844n=296 Very good	0.1992	+0.065	-0.127	-0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.8528 at 0.547 share (log5 0.1992 vs his 0.1844) + bullpen x0.9718 at 0.453 share (log5 0.2269 vs pen 0.2106) = x0.9067 \| starter alone would have been -0.117
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.522 → 0.588	+0.066	0.2212	0.1080n=551 Very good	0.2545n=296 Good	0.1270	-0.443	+0.130	-0.056 ok
		split	starter x1.1762 at 0.547 share (log5 0.1270 vs his 0.2545) + bullpen x1.0653 at 0.453 share (log5 0.1151 vs pen 0.2337) = x1.126 \| starter alone would have been +0.092
		Walkswhole staff	0.417 → 0.470	+0.053	0.0889	0.0994n=551 Average	0.1125n=296 Below average	0.1253	+0.041	+0.092	+0.009 ok
		split	starter x1.2609 at 0.547 share (log5 0.1253 vs his 0.1125) + bullpen x0.9636 at 0.453 share (log5 0.0958 vs pen 0.0856) = x1.1263 \| starter alone would have been +0.109
		Home runswhole staff	0.137 → 0.121	-0.016	0.0304	0.0319n=551 Average	0.0264n=296 Good	0.0277	+0.006	-0.016	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8675 at 0.547 share (log5 0.0277 vs his 0.0264) + bullpen x0.8989 at 0.453 share (log5 0.0287 vs pen 0.0273) = x0.8817 \| starter alone would have been -0.018
Jonny DeLuca	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.760 → 0.690	-0.071	0.2169	0.2346n=363 Good	0.1844n=296 Very good	0.2002	+0.068	-0.125	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.853 at 0.547 share (log5 0.2002 vs his 0.1844) + bullpen x0.9719 at 0.453 share (log5 0.2280 vs pen 0.2106) = x0.9068 \| starter alone would have been -0.112
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.051 → 1.166	+0.115	0.2212	0.2132n=363 Average	0.2545n=296 Good	0.2457	-0.031	+0.128	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.1523 at 0.547 share (log5 0.2457 vs his 0.2545) + bullpen x1.0571 at 0.453 share (log5 0.2254 vs pen 0.2337) = x1.1092 \| starter alone would have been +0.160
		Walkswhole staff	0.281 → 0.318	+0.038	0.0889	0.0572n=363 Poor	0.1125n=296 Below average	0.0731	-0.122	+0.090	-0.030 ok
		split	starter x1.2765 at 0.547 share (log5 0.0731 vs his 0.1125) + bullpen x0.9619 at 0.453 share (log5 0.0551 vs pen 0.0856) = x1.134 \| starter alone would have been +0.078
		Home runswhole staff	0.134 → 0.118	-0.016	0.0304	0.0303n=363 Average	0.0264n=296 Good	0.0263	-0.000	-0.015	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8673 at 0.547 share (log5 0.0263 vs his 0.0264) + bullpen x0.8988 at 0.453 share (log5 0.0273 vs pen 0.0273) = x0.8816 \| starter alone would have been -0.018
Richie Palacios	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.666 → 0.602	-0.064	0.2169	0.2110n=396 Average	0.1844n=296 Very good	0.1792	-0.021	-0.117	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8492 at 0.547 share (log5 0.1792 vs his 0.1844) + bullpen x0.971 at 0.453 share (log5 0.2049 vs pen 0.2106) = x0.9044 \| starter alone would have been -0.100
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.770 → 0.859	+0.089	0.2212	0.1749n=396 Good	0.2545n=296 Good	0.2030	-0.166	+0.120	-0.018 ok
		split	starter x1.1609 at 0.547 share (log5 0.2030 vs his 0.2545) + bullpen x1.0601 at 0.453 share (log5 0.1854 vs pen 0.2337) = x1.1152 \| starter alone would have been +0.124
		Walkswhole staff	0.412 → 0.463	+0.051	0.0889	0.1099n=396 Good	0.1125n=296 Below average	0.1381	+0.075	+0.085	+0.017 ok
		split	starter x1.2571 at 0.547 share (log5 0.1381 vs his 0.1125) + bullpen x0.964 at 0.453 share (log5 0.1059 vs pen 0.0856) = x1.1244 \| starter alone would have been +0.106
		Home runswhole staff	0.106 → 0.094	-0.013	0.0304	0.0273n=396 Average	0.0264n=296 Good	0.0237	-0.011	-0.015	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.867 at 0.547 share (log5 0.0237 vs his 0.0264) + bullpen x0.8985 at 0.453 share (log5 0.0245 vs pen 0.0273) = x0.8813 \| starter alone would have been -0.014
Taylor Walls	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.624 → 0.564	-0.060	0.2169	0.2028n=430 Below average	0.1844n=296 Very good	0.1719	-0.051	-0.117	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.8478 at 0.547 share (log5 0.1719 vs his 0.1844) + bullpen x0.9707 at 0.453 share (log5 0.1968 vs pen 0.2106) = x0.9035 \| starter alone would have been -0.095
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.002 → 1.107	+0.105	0.2212	0.2418n=430 Average	0.2545n=296 Good	0.2771	+0.074	+0.119	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x1.1459 at 0.547 share (log5 0.2771 vs his 0.2545) + bullpen x1.0549 at 0.453 share (log5 0.2551 vs pen 0.2337) = x1.1047 \| starter alone would have been +0.146
		Walkswhole staff	0.448 → 0.504	+0.056	0.0889	0.1012n=430 Good	0.1125n=296 Below average	0.1276	+0.044	+0.085	+0.010 ok
		split	starter x1.2602 at 0.547 share (log5 0.1276 vs his 0.1125) + bullpen x0.9636 at 0.453 share (log5 0.0976 vs pen 0.0856) = x1.1259 \| starter alone would have been +0.117
		Home runswhole staff	0.059 → 0.052	-0.007	0.0304	0.0144n=430 Poor	0.0264n=296 Good	0.0125	-0.057	-0.015	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.8654 at 0.547 share (log5 0.0125 vs his 0.0264) + bullpen x0.8973 at 0.453 share (log5 0.0130 vs pen 0.0273) = x0.8798 \| starter alone would have been -0.008
STARTER Drew Rasmussen21.7627 BF	Starter	Hits	3.309 → 3.313	+0.004	0.2169	0.1960n=669 Good	0.21718/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1962	-0.454	+0.005	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	6.038 → 6.178	+0.140	0.2212	0.2559n=669 Good	0.22668/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2618	+0.756	+0.117	+0.012 ok
		Walks	1.156 → 1.251	+0.095	0.0889	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.09608/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0602	-0.724	+0.153	-0.053 ok
		Home runs	0.276 → 0.320	+0.044	0.0304	0.0247n=669 Good	0.03528/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0286	-0.123	+0.104	-0.019 ok
RELIEVER Bryan Baker3.3775 BF	Closer	Hits	0.540 → 0.541	+0.001	0.2169	0.1836n=244 Very good	0.21718/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1838	-0.112	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.931 → 0.953	+0.022	0.2212	0.2490n=244 Good	0.22668/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2549	+0.094	+0.018	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.287 → 0.310	+0.023	0.0889	0.0897n=244 Average	0.09608/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0968	+0.003	+0.024	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.049 → 0.057	+0.008	0.0304	0.0254n=244 Good	0.03528/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0295	-0.017	+0.016	-0.003 ok
RELIEVER Cam Booser3.3722 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.368 → 0.368	+0.000	0.2169	0.1990n=152 Good	0.21718/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1993	-0.060	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.713 → 0.730	+0.016	0.2212	0.2702n=152 Good	0.22668/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2763	+0.165	+0.018	+0.003 ok
		Walks	0.127 → 0.137	+0.010	0.0889	0.0646n=152 Very good	0.09608/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0699	-0.082	+0.024	-0.006 ok
		Home runs	0.068 → 0.079	+0.011	0.0304	0.0310n=152 Average	0.03528/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0359	+0.002	+0.016	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Ian Seymour3.1831 BF	Long Reliever	Hits	1.389 → 1.391	+0.002	0.2169	0.2104n=551 Average	0.21718/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2106	-0.021	+0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	2.078 → 2.125	+0.047	0.2212	0.2784n=551 Very good	0.22668/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2847	+0.182	+0.017	+0.003 ok
		Walks	0.448 → 0.484	+0.036	0.0889	0.0706n=551 Good	0.09608/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0763	-0.058	+0.022	-0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.203 → 0.235	+0.032	0.0304	0.0387n=551 Poor	0.03528/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0447	+0.026	+0.015	+0.004 ok
RELIEVER Steven Matz1.3638 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.295 → 0.296	+0.000	0.2169	0.2166n=342 Average	0.21718/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2168	-0.000	+0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.254 → 0.261	+0.006	0.2212	0.1865n=342 Below average	0.22668/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1912	-0.047	+0.007	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.106 → 0.115	+0.009	0.0889	0.0781n=342 Good	0.09608/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0843	-0.015	+0.010	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.049 → 0.057	+0.008	0.0304	0.0362n=342 Poor	0.03528/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0419	+0.008	+0.006	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Cole Sulser1.196 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.264 → 0.264	+0.000	0.2169	0.2203n=236 Average	0.21718/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2205	+0.004	+0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.279 → 0.286	+0.007	0.2212	0.2332n=236 Average	0.22668/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2388	+0.014	+0.006	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.094 → 0.102	+0.007	0.0889	0.0788n=236 Good	0.09608/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0851	-0.012	+0.008	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.036 → 0.042	+0.006	0.0304	0.0301n=236 Average	0.03528/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0349	-0.000	+0.006	0 ok
RELIEVER Kevin Kelly0.59 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.122 → 0.122	+0.000	0.2169	0.2073n=279 Average	0.21718/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2075	-0.006	+0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.133 → 0.136	+0.003	0.2212	0.2248n=279 Average	0.22668/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2302	+0.002	+0.003	0 ok
		Walks	0.034 → 0.037	+0.003	0.0889	0.0573n=279 Very good	0.09608/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0620	-0.019	+0.004	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.016 → 0.018	+0.003	0.0304	0.0270n=279 Good	0.03528/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0312	-0.002	+0.003	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Tyler Wells0.2357 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.046 → 0.046	+0.000	0.2169	0.1936n=273 Very good	0.21718/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1938	-0.005	+0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.060 → 0.061	+0.001	0.2212	0.2541n=273 Good	0.22668/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2600	+0.008	+0.001	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.018 → 0.019	+0.001	0.0889	0.0743n=273 Good	0.09608/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0803	-0.003	+0.002	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.007 → 0.008	+0.001	0.0304	0.0300n=273 Average	0.03528/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0347	-0.000	+0.001	0 ok

NYY against Ryan Yarbrough (LHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to NYY hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 21.7627 of 35.081 projected batters (62.0%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 38.0%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Trent Grisham	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.786 → 0.717	-0.069	0.2169	0.1996n=474 Poor	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1800	-0.071	-0.085	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.902 at 0.620 share (log5 0.1800 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9291 at 0.380 share (log5 0.1854 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.9123 \| starter alone would have been -0.077
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.943 → 1.093	+0.150	0.2212	0.1871n=474 Good	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2179	-0.140	+0.142	-0.016 ok
		split	starter x1.165 at 0.620 share (log5 0.2179 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1491 at 0.380 share (log5 0.2149 vs pen 0.2526) = x1.159 \| starter alone would have been +0.156
		Walkswhole staff	0.411 → 0.294	-0.117	0.0889	0.1190n=474 Very good	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0754	+0.123	-0.136	-0.042 ok
		split	starter x0.6339 at 0.620 share (log5 0.0754 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8468 at 0.380 share (log5 0.1008 vs pen 0.0749) = x0.7147 \| starter alone would have been -0.151
		Home runswhole staff	0.173 → 0.156	-0.017	0.0304	0.0339n=474 Average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0276	+0.014	-0.023	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8139 at 0.620 share (log5 0.0276 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0427 at 0.380 share (log5 0.0354 vs pen 0.0317) = x0.9008 \| starter alone would have been -0.032
Ben Rice	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.793 → 0.726	-0.068	0.2169	0.2240n=651 Average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.2027	+0.030	-0.088	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9047 at 0.620 share (log5 0.2027 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9311 at 0.380 share (log5 0.2086 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.9147 \| starter alone would have been -0.076
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.246 → 1.429	+0.183	0.2212	0.2398n=651 Average	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2764	+0.078	+0.146	+0.008 ok
		split	starter x1.1526 at 0.620 share (log5 0.2764 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1381 at 0.380 share (log5 0.2729 vs pen 0.2526) = x1.1471 \| starter alone would have been +0.190
		Walkswhole staff	0.459 → 0.328	-0.131	0.0889	0.1228n=651 Very good	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0780	+0.143	-0.140	-0.049 ok
		split	starter x0.6349 at 0.620 share (log5 0.0780 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8473 at 0.380 share (log5 0.1041 vs pen 0.0749) = x0.7155 \| starter alone would have been -0.168
		Home runswhole staff	0.277 → 0.250	-0.027	0.0304	0.0536n=651 Very good	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0438	+0.098	-0.024	-0.017 ok
		split	starter x0.817 at 0.620 share (log5 0.0438 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0418 at 0.380 share (log5 0.0558 vs pen 0.0317) = x0.9023 \| starter alone would have been -0.051
Luis García Jr.	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.884 → 0.811	-0.074	0.2169	0.2435n=539 Very good	0.1960n=669 Good	0.2208	+0.108	-0.085	-0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.9068 at 0.620 share (log5 0.2208 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9327 at 0.380 share (log5 0.2272 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.9166 \| starter alone would have been -0.082
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.928 → 1.077	+0.149	0.2212	0.1817n=539 Good	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2119	-0.161	+0.141	-0.018 ok
		split	starter x1.1662 at 0.620 share (log5 0.2119 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1503 at 0.380 share (log5 0.2090 vs pen 0.2526) = x1.1602 \| starter alone would have been +0.154
		Walkswhole staff	0.200 → 0.140	-0.060	0.0889	0.0541n=539 Poor	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0334	-0.142	-0.135	+0.051 ok
		split	starter x0.6172 at 0.620 share (log5 0.0334 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8373 at 0.380 share (log5 0.0453 vs pen 0.0749) = x0.7007 \| starter alone would have been -0.077
		Home runswhole staff	0.233 → 0.210	-0.023	0.0304	0.0473n=539 Very good	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0386	+0.069	-0.023	-0.012 ok
		split	starter x0.816 at 0.620 share (log5 0.0386 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0421 at 0.380 share (log5 0.0493 vs pen 0.0317) = x0.9018 \| starter alone would have been -0.043
Cody Bellinger	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.861 → 0.788	-0.073	0.2169	0.2269n=549 Good	0.1960n=669 Good	0.2054	+0.043	-0.089	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.905 at 0.620 share (log5 0.2054 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9314 at 0.380 share (log5 0.2113 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.915 \| starter alone would have been -0.082
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.776 → 0.903	+0.128	0.2212	0.1619n=549 Good	0.2559n=669 Good	0.1896	-0.253	+0.148	-0.030 ok
		split	starter x1.171 at 0.620 share (log5 0.1896 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1544 at 0.380 share (log5 0.1869 vs pen 0.2526) = x1.1647 \| starter alone would have been +0.133
		Walkswhole staff	0.379 → 0.270	-0.110	0.0889	0.1027n=549 Good	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0646	+0.059	-0.142	-0.020 ok
		split	starter x0.6296 at 0.620 share (log5 0.0646 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8444 at 0.380 share (log5 0.0867 vs pen 0.0749) = x0.7111 \| starter alone would have been -0.140
		Home runswhole staff	0.145 → 0.131	-0.014	0.0304	0.0295n=549 Average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0240	-0.004	-0.024	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8132 at 0.620 share (log5 0.0240 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0429 at 0.380 share (log5 0.0308 vs pen 0.0317) = x0.9004 \| starter alone would have been -0.027
George Lombard Jr.	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.821 → 0.750	-0.071	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1960	0	-0.084	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9039 at 0.620 share (log5 0.1960 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9305 at 0.380 share (log5 0.2018 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.914 \| starter alone would have been -0.079
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.275 → 1.468	+0.193	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2559	0	+0.139	0 ok
		split	starter x1.157 at 0.620 share (log5 0.2559 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.142 at 0.380 share (log5 0.2526 vs pen 0.2526) = x1.1513 \| starter alone would have been +0.200
		Walkswhole staff	0.238 → 0.169	-0.070	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0557	0	-0.133	0 ok
		split	starter x0.626 at 0.620 share (log5 0.0557 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8424 at 0.380 share (log5 0.0749 vs pen 0.0749) = x0.7081 \| starter alone would have been -0.089
		Home runswhole staff	0.165 → 0.149	-0.016	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0247	0	-0.023	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8133 at 0.620 share (log5 0.0247 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0428 at 0.380 share (log5 0.0317 vs pen 0.0317) = x0.9004 \| starter alone would have been -0.031
Austin Wells	C	Hitswhole staff	0.587 → 0.535	-0.052	0.2169	0.1904n=387 Poor	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1715	-0.090	-0.071	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.9009 at 0.620 share (log5 0.1715 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9283 at 0.380 share (log5 0.1767 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.9113 \| starter alone would have been -0.058
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.008 → 1.152	+0.144	0.2212	0.2588n=387 Below average	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2972	+0.128	+0.118	+0.012 ok
		split	starter x1.1482 at 0.620 share (log5 0.2972 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1342 at 0.380 share (log5 0.2936 vs pen 0.2526) = x1.1429 \| starter alone would have been +0.149
		Walkswhole staff	0.333 → 0.238	-0.095	0.0889	0.1158n=387 Good	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0733	+0.091	-0.113	-0.031 ok
		split	starter x0.633 at 0.620 share (log5 0.0733 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8463 at 0.380 share (log5 0.0980 vs pen 0.0749) = x0.714 \| starter alone would have been -0.122
		Home runswhole staff	0.150 → 0.135	-0.015	0.0304	0.0338n=387 Average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0275	+0.012	-0.019	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8139 at 0.620 share (log5 0.0275 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0427 at 0.380 share (log5 0.0353 vs pen 0.0317) = x0.9008 \| starter alone would have been -0.028
Anthony Volpe	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.710 → 0.649	-0.061	0.2169	0.2178n=237 Average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1968	+0.003	-0.080	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.904 at 0.620 share (log5 0.1968 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9306 at 0.380 share (log5 0.2026 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.9141 \| starter alone would have been -0.068
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.183 → 1.362	+0.179	0.2212	0.2197n=237 Average	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2543	-0.006	+0.133	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.1573 at 0.620 share (log5 0.2543 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1423 at 0.380 share (log5 0.2510 vs pen 0.2526) = x1.1516 \| starter alone would have been +0.186
		Walkswhole staff	0.311 → 0.221	-0.090	0.0889	0.0999n=237 Average	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0629	+0.042	-0.127	-0.015 ok
		split	starter x0.6289 at 0.620 share (log5 0.0629 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.844 at 0.380 share (log5 0.0844 vs pen 0.0749) = x0.7106 \| starter alone would have been -0.116
		Home runswhole staff	0.082 → 0.074	-0.008	0.0304	0.0200n=237 Poor	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0162	-0.040	-0.022	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.8117 at 0.620 share (log5 0.0162 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0433 at 0.380 share (log5 0.0209 vs pen 0.0317) = x0.8996 \| starter alone would have been -0.015
Spencer Jones	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.760 → 0.695	-0.065	0.2169	0.2177n=283 Average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1968	+0.003	-0.080	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.904 at 0.620 share (log5 0.1968 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9306 at 0.380 share (log5 0.2026 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.9141 \| starter alone would have been -0.073
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.608 → 1.807	+0.199	0.2212	0.3460n=283 Poor	0.2559n=669 Good	0.3905	+0.477	+0.133	+0.037 ok
		split	starter x1.1286 at 0.620 share (log5 0.3905 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1166 at 0.380 share (log5 0.3864 vs pen 0.2526) = x1.124 \| starter alone would have been +0.207
		Walkswhole staff	0.292 → 0.207	-0.085	0.0889	0.0885n=283 Average	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0554	-0.002	-0.127	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.6259 at 0.620 share (log5 0.0554 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8423 at 0.380 share (log5 0.0746 vs pen 0.0749) = x0.708 \| starter alone would have been -0.109
		Home runswhole staff	0.156 → 0.141	-0.015	0.0304	0.0348n=283 Average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0283	+0.017	-0.022	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.814 at 0.620 share (log5 0.0283 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0426 at 0.380 share (log5 0.0363 vs pen 0.0317) = x0.9008 \| starter alone would have been -0.029
José Caballero	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.687 → 0.628	-0.059	0.2169	0.2115n=451 Average	0.1960n=669 Good	0.1910	-0.019	-0.072	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9033 at 0.620 share (log5 0.1910 vs his 0.1960) + bullpen x0.9301 at 0.380 share (log5 0.1967 vs pen 0.2018) = x0.9135 \| starter alone would have been -0.067
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.093 → 1.254	+0.161	0.2212	0.2397n=451 Average	0.2559n=669 Good	0.2763	+0.064	+0.121	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x1.1527 at 0.620 share (log5 0.2763 vs his 0.2559) + bullpen x1.1381 at 0.380 share (log5 0.2728 vs pen 0.2526) = x1.1472 \| starter alone would have been +0.167
		Walkswhole staff	0.208 → 0.146	-0.062	0.0889	0.0694n=451 Below average	0.0557n=669 Very good	0.0431	-0.068	-0.116	+0.024 ok
		split	starter x0.6211 at 0.620 share (log5 0.0431 vs his 0.0557) + bullpen x0.8395 at 0.380 share (log5 0.0583 vs pen 0.0749) = x0.704 \| starter alone would have been -0.079
		Home runswhole staff	0.125 → 0.112	-0.012	0.0304	0.0308n=451 Average	0.0247n=669 Good	0.0251	+0.001	-0.020	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8134 at 0.620 share (log5 0.0251 vs his 0.0247) + bullpen x1.0428 at 0.380 share (log5 0.0321 vs pen 0.0317) = x0.9005 \| starter alone would have been -0.023
STARTER Carlos Rodón19.9841 BF	Starter	Hits	2.727 → 2.851	+0.124	0.2169	0.1844n=296 Very good	0.22649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1928	-0.650	+0.190	-0.021 ok
		Strikeouts	5.416 → 4.778	-0.638	0.2212	0.2545n=296 Good	0.19419/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2245	+0.665	-0.541	-0.058 ok
		Walks	1.714 → 1.803	+0.089	0.0889	0.1125n=296 Below average	0.09379/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1183	+0.470	+0.095	+0.022 ok
		Home runs	0.474 → 0.523	+0.049	0.0304	0.0264n=296 Good	0.03359/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0291	-0.081	+0.063	-0.008 ok
RELIEVER Paul Blackburn3.4229 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.811 → 0.847	+0.036	0.2169	0.1987n=329 Good	0.22649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2076	-0.062	+0.033	-0.002 ok
		Strikeouts	0.773 → 0.677	-0.097	0.2212	0.2046n=329 Average	0.19419/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1791	-0.057	-0.093	+0.005 ok
		Walks	0.470 → 0.495	+0.025	0.0889	0.0946n=329 Average	0.09379/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0996	+0.019	+0.016	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.068 → 0.075	+0.007	0.0304	0.0265n=329 Good	0.03359/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0293	-0.013	+0.011	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Brent Headrick3.0408 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.646 → 0.675	+0.028	0.2169	0.2125n=326 Average	0.22649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2219	-0.013	+0.029	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.866 → 0.768	-0.098	0.2212	0.2849n=326 Very good	0.19419/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2526	+0.194	-0.082	-0.016 ok
		Walks	0.258 → 0.272	+0.014	0.0889	0.0848n=326 Average	0.09379/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0894	-0.013	+0.015	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.073 → 0.081	+0.008	0.0304	0.0240n=326 Very good	0.03359/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0265	-0.019	+0.010	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER John Schreiber2.8968 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.765 → 0.799	+0.034	0.2169	0.2088n=246 Average	0.22649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2180	-0.023	+0.028	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.657 → 0.573	-0.085	0.2212	0.1770n=246 Below average	0.19419/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1543	-0.128	-0.079	+0.013 ok
		Walks	0.338 → 0.356	+0.018	0.0889	0.0991n=246 Below average	0.09379/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1044	+0.030	+0.014	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.090 → 0.099	+0.009	0.0304	0.0297n=246 Average	0.03359/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0328	-0.002	+0.009	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Ryan Weathers2.8869 BF	Middle Reliever	Hits	0.793 → 0.827	+0.034	0.2169	0.2248n=568 Below average	0.22649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2345	+0.023	+0.027	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.732 → 0.645	-0.087	0.2212	0.2480n=568 Good	0.19419/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2185	+0.077	-0.078	-0.007 ok
		Walks	0.415 → 0.438	+0.023	0.0889	0.0717n=568 Good	0.09379/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0756	-0.050	+0.014	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.119 → 0.131	+0.012	0.0304	0.0311n=568 Average	0.03359/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0343	+0.002	+0.009	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER David Bednar2.8009 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.568 → 0.593	+0.025	0.2169	0.2027n=277 Good	0.22649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2118	-0.040	+0.027	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.735 → 0.649	-0.086	0.2212	0.2624n=277 Good	0.19419/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2318	+0.116	-0.076	-0.010 ok
		Walks	0.219 → 0.231	+0.012	0.0889	0.0783n=277 Good	0.09379/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0825	-0.030	+0.013	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.068 → 0.075	+0.007	0.0304	0.0243n=277 Very good	0.03359/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0268	-0.017	+0.009	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Will Warren1.2027 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.276 → 0.288	+0.012	0.2169	0.2293n=673 Below average	0.22649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2392	+0.015	+0.011	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.279 → 0.245	-0.034	0.2212	0.2320n=673 Average	0.19419/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2039	+0.013	-0.033	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.097 → 0.102	+0.005	0.0889	0.0807n=673 Average	0.09379/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0850	-0.010	+0.006	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.037 → 0.041	+0.004	0.0304	0.0309n=673 Average	0.03359/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0341	+0.001	+0.004	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Ryan Yarbrough0.2945 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.061 → 0.064	+0.003	0.2169	0.2080n=253 Average	0.22649/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2172	-0.003	+0.003	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.057 → 0.050	-0.007	0.2212	0.1943n=253 Below average	0.19419/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1698	-0.008	-0.008	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.025 → 0.026	+0.001	0.0889	0.0853n=253 Average	0.09379/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0899	-0.001	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.007 → 0.008	+0.001	0.0304	0.0237n=253 Very good	0.03359/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0262	-0.002	+0.001	-0.000 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Drew Rasmussen	Starter	21.8	5.2	5.766	5 / 3.309	8 / 6.038	3 / 1.156	2 / 0.940	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Ian Seymour	Long Reliever	7.8	2.0	2.004	2 / 1.389	1 / 2.078	0 / 0.448	1 / 0.640	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Cam Booser	Setup Man	2.5	0.2	0.668	0 / 0.368	1 / 0.713	0 / 0.127	0 / 0.121	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Bryan Baker	Closer	3.8	0.2	1.002	0 / 0.540	1 / 0.931	0 / 0.287	0 / 0.108	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Carlos Rodón	Starter	20.0	5.1	5.181	5 / 2.727	4 / 5.416	1 / 1.714	2 / 1.203	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Ryan Weathers	Middle Reliever	4.2	1.0	1.006	1 / 0.793	1 / 0.732	0 / 0.415	1 / 0.414	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	5.3	1.1	1.341	1 / 0.811	1 / 0.773	0 / 0.470	0 / 0.157	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
John Schreiber	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.1	1.1	1.006	0 / 0.765	1 / 0.657	0 / 0.338	0 / 0.285	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity136 checks	PASS	136 of 136 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.766
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Drew Rasmussen projected 21.8 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.181
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Carlos Rodón projected 20.0 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

Provenance. Read only from published artifacts and stored KPI value documents. Nothing is recomputed, so this document cannot disagree with what was published. Per-player metric adjustments are a measurement of the catalog at player level and are labelled as such throughout; the pipeline itself moved team runs, the win probability, and hitter lines by one club-wide ratio.