Odds intelligence 2026-10-06
What the sportsbook player-prop market says about this slate, how it moved our published player lines, and how much the market has been worth on settled games.
Games priced2
Players priced41
Book prices1315
Books9
SnapshotPregame
LAD 4 - 3 ATLhome win 49.5%
MIL 3 - 5 SDhome win 59.6%
Market blend30 hitters and 4 starters moved toward the market
Player audit0 failures, 675 checks passed
Play by playEvery published line equals its game
Prices from output/odds/20261006/snapshots/odds_20261006T203042Z_ef574737ff07.csv, written 2026-10-06T20:00:21.184981+00:00.
Books: BetMGM, BetOnline, BetRivers, Bovada, DraftKings, Fanatics, FanDuel, MyBookie, Caesars.
Key takeaways
- The market expects less offense than our model: runs 0.88×, rbi 0.83× of our projection across the slate.
- MIL: our hitters add up to 5.1 runs; the market's prices add up to 3.9; we publish 3.0.
- The published player lines already include the market at the fitted weights below; score, winner and win probability are not changed by it.
- Largest disagreement: Dustin May, pitcher outs over 9.5: market 44%, our model 76%.
- Best price against the other books: Ronald Acuna Jr. stolen bases over 0.5 at +520 (FanDuel), fair 19.1%.
- Settled evidence so far: 953 props over 2 date(s). A market needs 300 props over 10 dates for a verdict.
Market against our projection, by stat
| Stat | Players | Market ÷ our model | Our chance minus market's |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hits + runs + RBI | 29 | 0.78× | 11.6% |
| RBI | 30 | 0.83× | 4.0% |
| Runs | 30 | 0.88× | 3.3% |
| Total bases | 30 | 0.95× | 2.2% |
| Strikeouts | 4 | 0.96× | 3.7% |
| Hits | 34 | 0.98× | 1.7% |
| Singles | 30 | 0.99× | 0.4% |
| Outs | 4 | 1.02× | 0.4% |
| Walks | 33 | 1.06× | -1.2% |
| Earned runs | 4 | 1.07× | -3.9% |
| Home runs | 30 | 1.09× | -0.5% |
| Doubles | 30 | 1.23× | -3.0% |
| Triples | 1 | 3.36× | -3.6% |
Below 1.00× the market expects less than our model before odds. A shared gap across a whole slate is a calibration question before it is a player one.
Every priced player
| # | Player | Hits | Home runs | Runs | RBI | Total bases | Walks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake BaldwinATL | 62%0.88model 0.99we publish 0.96 | 15%0.17model 0.19 | 39%0.50model 0.52we publish 0.51 | 27%0.36model 0.59we publish 0.45 | 61%1.56model 1.74we publish 1.72 | 29%0.33model 0.35we publish 0.33 |
| 3 | Matt OlsonATL | 59%0.80model 0.84we publish 0.84 | 19%0.21model 0.23we publish 0.22 | 37%0.47model 0.60we publish 0.50 | 31%0.43model 0.55we publish 0.48 | 58%1.61model 1.72we publish 1.71 | 32%0.36model 0.32we publish 0.35 |
| 4 | Ozzie AlbiesATL | 56%0.75model 0.82we publish 0.81 | 9%0.10model 0.15we publish 0.13 | 33%0.40model 0.56we publish 0.44 | 28%0.37model 0.46we publish 0.41 | 54%1.25model 1.44we publish 1.39 | 26%0.29model 0.26we publish 0.28 |
| 5 | Michael Harris IIATL | 62%0.86model 1.03we publish 0.96 | 13%0.13model 0.18we publish 0.17 | 33%0.40model 0.58we publish 0.45 | 29%0.40model 0.59we publish 0.48 | –1.56model 1.79we publish 1.68 | 19%0.20model 0.15 |
| 8 | Austin RileyATL | 51%0.65model 0.71we publish 0.70 | 13%0.14model 0.12we publish 0.13 | 31%0.37model 0.41we publish 0.38 | 25%0.33model 0.44we publish 0.38 | 50%1.13model 1.25 | 25%0.27model 0.23we publish 0.26 |
| 9 | Ha-Seong KimATL | 42%0.51model 0.60we publish 0.57 | 7%0.07model 0.08 | 25%0.29model 0.32we publish 0.30 | 17%0.21model 0.34we publish 0.26 | 42%0.80model 0.96we publish 0.93 | 23%0.26model 0.26 |
| Chris SaleATL | –4.57model 4.09we publish 4.30 | – | – | – | – | –1.43model 0.86we publish 1.13 | |
| 1 | Mookie BettsLAD | 64%0.91model 0.94we publish 0.95 | 15%0.17model 0.17 | 39%0.49model 0.47we publish 0.48 | 27%0.36model 0.49we publish 0.41 | –1.63model 1.68we publish 1.70 | 32%0.37model 0.28we publish 0.34 |
| 2 | Freddie FreemanLAD | 61%0.86model 1.00we publish 0.95 | 11%0.11model 0.13we publish 0.12 | 34%0.42model 0.41we publish 0.42 | 26%0.34model 0.47we publish 0.39 | 60%1.32model 1.60we publish 1.53 | 30%0.34model 0.27we publish 0.32 |
| 4 | Will SmithLAD | 57%0.77model 0.78we publish 0.79 | 14%0.15model 0.13 | 36%0.44model 0.41we publish 0.43 | 29%0.40model 0.39we publish 0.39 | 57%1.31model 1.33we publish 1.37 | 33%0.38model 0.32we publish 0.36 |
| 5 | Shohei OhtaniLAD | 57%0.76model 0.88we publish 0.83 | 17%0.20model 0.16 | 36%0.45model 0.50we publish 0.47 | 29%0.40model 0.46we publish 0.42 | 57%1.54model 1.55we publish 1.51 | 34%0.40model 0.33we publish 0.38 |
| 6 | Miguel RojasLAD | 56%0.73model 0.70we publish 0.73 | 8%0.08model 0.08 | 27%0.32model 0.22we publish 0.29 | 21%0.27model 0.28we publish 0.27 | 56%1.14model 1.09we publish 1.13 | 17%0.19model 0.16 |
| 7 | Andy PagesLAD | 57%0.75model 0.78 | 12%0.12model 0.14 | 33%0.40model 0.47we publish 0.42 | 27%0.37model 0.43we publish 0.40 | 56%1.29model 1.36 | 28%0.31model 0.25we publish 0.29 |
| 8 | Kyle TuckerLAD | 54%0.71model 0.74we publish 0.74 | 11%0.11model 0.10 | 33%0.39model 0.51we publish 0.43 | 26%0.34model 0.42we publish 0.37 | 55%1.19model 1.22we publish 1.24 | 28%0.32model 0.28we publish 0.31 |
| Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD | –4.84model 3.42we publish 4.03 | – | – | – | – | –1.42model 1.27we publish 1.35 | |
| 1 | Jackson ChourioMIL | 66%0.97model 1.03we publish 1.01 | 19%0.23model 0.18 | 44%0.57model 0.84we publish 0.64 | 33%0.48model 0.58we publish 0.52 | –1.82model 1.75we publish 1.74 | 30%0.34model 0.36we publish 0.34 |
| 2 | Jake BauersMIL | 54%0.71model 0.83we publish 0.79 | 19%0.21model 0.16we publish 0.17 | 37%0.47model 0.66we publish 0.52 | 29%0.41model 0.54we publish 0.46 | 53%1.22model 1.48we publish 1.47 | 41%0.50model 0.61we publish 0.53 |
| 3 | William ContrerasMIL | 64%0.91model 0.90we publish 0.91 | 15%0.18model 0.11 | 38%0.48model 0.53we publish 0.49 | 33%0.49model 0.55we publish 0.52 | –1.59model 1.42we publish 1.44 | 32%0.36model 0.39we publish 0.37 |
| 4 | Brice TurangMIL | 61%0.84model 0.85we publish 0.86 | 11%0.12model 0.12 | 38%0.48model 0.71we publish 0.54 | 27%0.37model 0.55we publish 0.44 | 59%1.33model 1.39we publish 1.41 | 39%0.47model 0.52we publish 0.48 |
| 5 | Christian YelichMIL | 55%0.72model 0.85we publish 0.80 | 11%0.11model 0.12 | 34%0.41model 0.63we publish 0.46 | 26%0.34model 0.52we publish 0.41 | 55%1.21model 1.41we publish 1.36 | 34%0.40model 0.42we publish 0.40 |
| 6 | Garrett MitchellMIL | 54%0.71model 0.81we publish 0.77 | 13%0.14model 0.09we publish 0.10 | 34%0.42model 0.62we publish 0.47 | 26%0.35model 0.42we publish 0.38 | 54%1.10model 1.26 | 33%0.39model 0.42we publish 0.40 |
| 7 | Cooper PrattMIL | 55%0.73model 0.80we publish 0.77 | 8%0.08model 0.08 | 31%0.36model 0.39we publish 0.37 | 24%0.31model 0.44we publish 0.36 | 53%1.00model 1.17we publish 1.17 | 25%0.28model 0.33we publish 0.29 |
| 8 | Sal FrelickMIL | 58%0.78model 0.77we publish 0.80 | 7%0.07model 0.07 | 30%0.36model 0.34we publish 0.35 | 25%0.32model 0.40we publish 0.35 | 57%1.10model 1.12we publish 1.17 | 26%0.29model 0.32we publish 0.30 |
| 9 | Joey OrtizMIL | 53%0.69model 0.80we publish 0.74 | 10%0.10model 0.09 | 30%0.36model 0.41 | 26%0.35model 0.42 | 52%1.04model 1.23we publish 1.18 | – |
| Dustin MayMIL | –3.17model 3.79we publish 3.58 | – | – | – | – | 63%0.98model 1.23we publish 1.09 | |
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr.SD | 68%1.11model 1.00we publish 1.06 | 18%0.19model 0.14we publish 0.15 | 48%0.66model 0.59we publish 0.64 | 33%0.48model 0.46we publish 0.47 | –1.89model 1.60we publish 1.72 | 37%0.44model 0.38we publish 0.42 |
| 2 | Jackson MerrillSD | 64%0.91model 0.90we publish 0.92 | 16%0.17model 0.14we publish 0.15 | 39%0.49model 0.50we publish 0.49 | 33%0.48model 0.48 | –1.65model 1.50we publish 1.56 | 22%0.24model 0.31we publish 0.26 |
| 3 | Manny MachadoSD | 65%0.94model 0.82we publish 0.88 | 19%0.22model 0.16 | 42%0.55model 0.48we publish 0.53 | 35%0.53model 0.48we publish 0.51 | –1.75model 1.46we publish 1.54 | 34%0.39model 0.46we publish 0.41 |
| 4 | Ty FranceSD | 65%0.93model 0.99we publish 0.98 | 14%0.14model 0.16 | 39%0.49model 0.45we publish 0.48 | 32%0.45model 0.50we publish 0.47 | –1.62model 1.64we publish 1.63 | 27%0.30model 0.31we publish 0.30 |
| 5 | Ethan SalasSD | 49%0.61model 0.75we publish 0.70 | 8%0.08model 0.11 | 29%0.34model 0.41we publish 0.36 | 24%0.31model 0.37we publish 0.34 | 50%1.03model 1.23we publish 1.19 | 24%0.27model 0.26 |
| 7 | Xander BogaertsSD | 60%0.81model 0.73we publish 0.79 | 9%0.09model 0.10 | 35%0.44model 0.47we publish 0.45 | 28%0.38model 0.32we publish 0.35 | 58%1.24model 1.16we publish 1.22 | 34%0.39model 0.44we publish 0.41 |
| 8 | Dustin HarrisSD | 58%0.79model 0.85we publish 0.82 | 9%0.09model 0.07 | 36%0.45model 0.47we publish 0.46 | 25%0.32model 0.41we publish 0.36 | 59%1.17model 1.23 | 24%0.26model 0.31we publish 0.27 |
| 9 | Jake CronenworthSD | 52%0.66model 0.73we publish 0.70 | 8%0.08model 0.08 | 33%0.39model 0.32we publish 0.37 | 24%0.31model 0.31 | 49%0.93model 1.11we publish 1.09 | 33%0.38model 0.34we publish 0.37 |
| Nick PivettaSD | –3.17model 3.27 | – | – | – | – | –1.21model 0.91we publish 1.06 |
Each cell: the market's chance of at least one (top), the expectation the market's price implies (bold; red below our model, green above), our model before odds, and the published value after the blend.
Largest disagreements
| Player | Prop | Market chance | Our model | Difference | Expectation: ours → market | Betting decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin May | Pitcher outs over 9.5 | 44% | 76% | 32% | 12.02 → 9.23 | pass |
| Dustin May | Pitcher outs over 8.5 | 57% | 85% | 28% | 12.02 → 9.18 | pass |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Pitcher hits allowed over 4.5 | 53% | 26% | -27% | 3.42 → 4.84 | pass |
| Ozzie Albies | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 56% | 81% | 25% | 1.84 → 0.94 | pass |
| Dustin May | Pitcher strikeouts over 2.5 | 57% | 82% | 24% | 4.41 → 2.99 | pass |
| Garrett Mitchell | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 59% | 83% | 24% | 1.85 → 0.96 | pass |
| Christian Yelich | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 61% | 84% | 24% | 1.99 → 1.03 | pass |
| Ha-Seong Kim | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 46% | 69% | 23% | 1.26 → 0.68 | pass |
| Chris Sale | Pitcher outs over 18.0 | 54% | 32% | -22% | 17.21 → 20.35 | pass |
| Dustin Harris | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 60% | 82% | 22% | 1.73 → 0.96 | pass |
| Ethan Salas | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 54% | 75% | 21% | 1.52 → 0.87 | pass |
| Chris Sale | Pitcher walks allowed over 1.5 | 42% | 21% | -21% | 0.86 → 1.43 | pass |
| Austin Riley | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 55% | 75% | 20% | 1.57 → 0.92 | pass |
| Cooper Pratt | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 60% | 79% | 19% | 1.63 → 0.98 | pass |
| Sal Frelick | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | 58% | 77% | 19% | 1.50 → 0.92 | pass |
Disagreements are research signals. Every one is a pass until settled games show our model beats the market on that market.
Best prices between books
| Player | Prop | Best price | Book | Fair (other books) | Value vs fair | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | Stolen bases over 0.5 | +520 | FanDuel | 19.1% | 18.1% | 2 |
| Christian Yelich | Stolen bases over 0.5 | +850 | FanDuel | 11.7% | 11.4% | 2 |
| Shohei Ohtani | Walks over 0.5 | +215 | Fanatics | 34.5% | 8.8% | 3 |
| Enrique Hernandez | Doubles over 0.5 | +700 | Bovada | 13.2% | 5.5% | 2 |
| Enrique Hernandez | Hits over 0.5 | +108 | DraftKings | 49.6% | 3.3% | 3 |
| Dustin May | Pitcher earned runs under 1.5 | -130 | BetMGM | 58.2% | 2.9% | 3 |
| Ethan Salas | Hits + runs + RBI over 0.5 | -110 | BetMGM | 53.7% | 2.5% | 4 |
| Sal Frelick | Hits + runs + RBI over 1.5 | +135 | Caesars | 43.5% | 2.2% | 3 |
| Jake Cronenworth | Hits over 0.5 | -105 | BetMGM | 52.3% | 2.2% | 3 |
| Jake Bauers | Hits over 0.5 | -115 | BetMGM | 54.6% | 2.1% | 3 |
One book's price against the consensus of the others. Hypothetical value between books, not a model view and not a wager.
What the market has been worth
| Market | Props | Players | Games | Dates | Market log loss | Model log loss | Model − market | 95% interval (by game) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doubles | 85 | 69 | 5 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.332 | -0.002 | -0.013 to +0.010 no clear leader | needs 8 more dates and 215 more props |
| Hits | 89 | 69 | 5 | 2 | 0.660 | 0.649 | -0.012 | -0.075 to +0.057 no clear leader | needs 8 more dates and 211 more props |
| Hits + runs + RBI | 93 | 70 | 5 | 2 | 0.700 | 0.728 | 0.029 | -0.083 to +0.162 no clear leader | needs 8 more dates and 207 more props |
| Home runs | 101 | 69 | 5 | 2 | 0.377 | 0.359 | -0.018 | -0.035 to +0.000 no clear leader | needs 8 more dates and 199 more props |
| RBI | 85 | 69 | 5 | 2 | 0.633 | 0.640 | 0.006 | -0.025 to +0.030 no clear leader | needs 8 more dates and 215 more props |
| Runs | 85 | 69 | 5 | 2 | 0.676 | 0.680 | 0.004 | -0.051 to +0.043 no clear leader | needs 8 more dates and 215 more props |
| Singles | 85 | 69 | 5 | 2 | 0.684 | 0.678 | -0.006 | -0.051 to +0.047 no clear leader | needs 8 more dates and 215 more props |
| Stolen bases | 71 | 59 | 5 | 2 | 0.267 | 0.245 | -0.022 | -0.034 to -0.007 model ahead | needs 8 more dates and 229 more props |
| Total bases | 97 | 69 | 5 | 2 | 0.686 | 0.669 | -0.016 | -0.074 to +0.038 no clear leader | needs 8 more dates and 203 more props |
| Triples | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0.042 | 0.014 | -0.028 | -0.032 to -0.023 model ahead | needs 8 more dates and 296 more props |
| Walks | 81 | 68 | 5 | 2 | 0.596 | 0.616 | 0.020 | +0.000 to +0.040 market ahead | needs 8 more dates and 219 more props |
| Pitcher earned runs | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.666 | 0.535 | -0.131 | -0.280 to -0.013 model ahead | needs 9 more dates and 291 more props |
| Pitcher hits allowed | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.685 | 0.481 | -0.205 | -0.288 to -0.102 model ahead | needs 9 more dates and 291 more props |
| Pitcher outs | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.660 | 0.910 | 0.250 | -0.023 to +0.445 no clear leader | needs 9 more dates and 288 more props |
| Pitcher strikeouts | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.675 | 0.666 | -0.009 | -0.117 to +0.180 no clear leader | needs 9 more dates and 290 more props |
| Pitcher walks allowed | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.693 | 0.999 | 0.306 | -0.020 to +0.632 no clear leader | needs 9 more dates and 292 more props |
Log loss scores each probability against what happened; lower is better, and a negative model − market means our model was more accurate. Props count only when both the market and our model priced them. The interval resamples whole games, because props in one game are not independent: one at-bat settles a hitter's hits, singles and total bases, and nine hitters face the same pitcher. With 4 games it is wide, which is why a verdict needs 300 props over 10 dates, not just 300 props.
Weights in force
Singles56%
Doubles34%
Triples48%
Walks72%
Hits49%
Home runs27%
Runs71%
RBI56%
Strikeouts50%
Walks (pitcher)54%
Earned runs (pitcher)47%
Hits (pitcher)47%
Outs (pitcher)53%
Strikeouts (pitcher)54%
How far each published stat moves toward the market: 0% keeps the model, 100% takes the market. Fitted on the settled props above.
Data quality and gaps
high
data/market_odds.csv is missing or empty, so no full-game moneyline covers 20261006 (manual pull)
Full-game moneyline context in the team router decision profile, review_prediction_results and the deep slate diagnosis reads this file and reports unavailable for every game since. The event feed carries only inning-period markets (first 1/3/5/7), so it cannot refill it. Ask the odds source to add full-game h2h, totals and spreads.
medium
Markets priced by books but not forecast by the model: batter_first_home_run, batter_stolen_bases, pitcher_record_a_win
Stolen bases have a market and no model expectation. A SB rate from sprint speed, attempt rate and catcher pop time is a self-contained new hitter metric with a market to measure it against.
medium
One snapshot per slate (this run archived an already seen snapshot)
Pull the feed at open, mid-day and near first pitch. Line movement and closing-line value against our early number are the strongest independent checks a single price cannot give.
low
300 rows carry only an over price
One-sided rows are scaled by the market's median hold; a two-way price would remove the estimate.
info
6 players are priced by books but absent from our published lineup (both lineups confirmed: bench players)
Books post props for bench players before lineups are out. With confirmed lineups this is information; with projected lineups, rerun once they confirm.
info
ATL hitter expected runs sum to 4.28 (RBI 4.40) against a published club score of 3
Known (R-27). Anchoring hitter R and RBI to the club target was measured on 1,128 settled hitter-games and lost accuracy, so the lines are left unanchored; the market blend moves R and RBI toward the market instead.
info
MIL hitter expected runs sum to 5.11 (RBI 4.40) against a published club score of 3; the market-implied sum is 3.91
Known (R-27). Anchoring hitter R and RBI to the club target was measured on 1,128 settled hitter-games and lost accuracy, so the lines are left unanchored; the market blend moves R and RBI toward the market instead.
Player audit
Passed675
Explained20
Information46
Failed0
| Player | Check | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mookie Betts | market floor H | explained | market 64.3% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 36% to exactly that |
| Andy Pages | market floor H | explained | market 56.7% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 43% to exactly that |
| Andy Pages | market floor TB | explained | market 55.8% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 44% to exactly that |
| Drake Baldwin | market floor H | explained | market 62.1% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 38% to exactly that |
| Drake Baldwin | market floor TB | explained | market 61.2% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 39% to exactly that |
| Austin Riley | market floor H | explained | market 51.2% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 49% to exactly that |
| Austin Riley | market floor HRR | explained | market 55.0% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 45% to exactly that |
| Austin Riley | market floor TB | explained | market 50.5% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 49% to exactly that |
| Jackson Chourio | market floor H | explained | market 66.1% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 34% to exactly that |
| Cooper Pratt | market floor H | explained | market 55.3% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 45% to exactly that |
| Cooper Pratt | market floor HRR | explained | market 60.2% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 40% to exactly that |
| Cooper Pratt | market floor TB | explained | market 52.7% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 47% to exactly that |
| Sal Frelick | market floor H | explained | market 58.3% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 42% to exactly that |
| Sal Frelick | market floor HRR | explained | market 58.1% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 42% to exactly that |
| Sal Frelick | market floor TB | explained | market 56.6% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 43% to exactly that |
| Joey Ortiz | market floor H | explained | market 53.1% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 47% to exactly that |
| Joey Ortiz | market floor TB | explained | market 52.5% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 48% to exactly that |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | market floor H | explained | market 68.4% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 32% to exactly that |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | market floor 1B | explained | market 55.1% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 45% to exactly that |
| Manny Machado | market floor H | explained | market 65.2% for at least 1; 0 in the one realized game that produces the published score; the market gives 35% to exactly that |
Every batter and starter is checked: box identities, rate line, the odds step's arithmetic and position, market floors and the play by play. Explained means the market and the single realized game differ for a reason the check names.
Reference
Book margins by market and by book
| Doubles | 6.2% |
| Pitcher strikeouts | 6.5% |
| Pitcher walks allowed | 6.7% |
| Hits | 6.8% |
| RBI | 6.8% |
| Hits + runs + RBI | 6.9% |
| Stolen bases | 7.0% |
| Total bases | 7.0% |
| Pitcher hits allowed | 7.1% |
| Runs | 7.2% |
| Pitcher earned runs | 7.3% |
| Walks | 7.5% |
| Singles | 7.6% |
| Pitcher outs | 7.7% |
| BetOnline | 6.4% |
| FanDuel | 6.5% |
| Bovada | 6.7% |
| DraftKings | 7.0% |
| BetMGM | 7.0% |
| Caesars | 7.1% |
| MyBookie | 8.0% |
| Fanatics | 8.1% |
The margin is what a book adds on top of a fair price; lower is a sharper book.