MLB Prediction System

Metric Evolution & Audit

Every number that moved, the stage that moved it, the input it used, and the arithmetic that proves it

Slate 20260929Games 4Checks 697Schema metric_evolution_report_v1Built 2026-10-06 13:58Z

Verdict across the slate

697 invariants checked across 4 games: NO DEFECT FOUND

How to read this, and what a defect looks like

Every figure below is shown with the arithmetic that produced it and a verdict beside it, so a disagreement can be pointed at a specific line rather than at the system as a whole.

Stage chain. Each game lists every stage that touched the score, the score after it, and whether it changed the target. Most stages move nothing on most games; a chain that showed only movement would misrepresent it. A stage reporting a delta while changed_target is false computed an adjustment and did not apply it, which is normal and is stated.
Blend arithmetic. The KPI blend must satisfy blended = baseline + weight x (kpi_only - baseline) for all three targets. A FAIL here means the layer reported a number it did not compute.
Rounding. Published integers must be the rounding of the blended runs under the documented tie rule. A FAIL means the published score and the continuous line describe different games.
Log5 additivity. For every player metric, own skill plus opponent plus the Log5 remainder must equal the total against the league, exactly. A FAIL means the decomposition is not a decomposition.
Direction. A green delta helps the subject, a red one hurts him. Strikeouts invert for a hitter. If an elite arm's opponent shows green strikeouts, the orientation is wrong and the whole player section is suspect.
Measured versus published. The KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The per-player metric adjustments here are a measurement of the same catalog at player level, not what the pipeline published; the one club-wide ratio the pipeline actually applied to hitter lines is printed beside them.
Integer versus continuous. The integer player line is a simulation draw reconciled to the box score. The continuous expected_* beside it is the model's own view and is the rankable quantity. Judging the model by the integer is how a working model looks broken.

Slate overview

Game	Published	p(home)	Stages	KPI applied	Δ away runs	Δ home runs	Simulation draw chosen on	0-out starter
20260929_BOS@NYY	2 - 4	0.5400	7	no	-	-	-	no
20260929_CHC@SD	4 - 5	0.5079	7	no	-	-	-	no
20260929_CHW@HOU	6 - 5	0.4700	7	no	-	-	-	no
20260929_PHI@ATL	2 - 3	0.5054	7	no	-	-	-	no

KPI model in force. candidate 20261005T125039Z_f5114dc0, 48 features built from 40 registered KPIs, blend weights {"home_runs": 0.44, "away_runs": 0.78, "home_win": 0.0}, frozen evaluation ends 2026-09-26. A target whose weight is zero contributes nothing by construction: the winner probability carries weight zero while its walk-forward verdict is inconclusive, so every win-probability movement below is expected to be exactly zero.

Per game

20260929_BOS@NYY — published 2-4, 171 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20260929_BOS@NYY__20260930T003745Z.json, phase post_start_rerun, generated 2026-09-30T00:37:45, first pitch 2026-09-30T00:00:00.
Published 2 - 4 with p(home) 0.540000. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; 0 of 6 draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	3.760195497285993 - 5.470883753518859	-	-	-	-	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	3 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	2 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	away -0.6229; home -0.3088 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
5. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	2 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
6. `capped_target`	2 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
7. `simulation_result`	2 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

A stage reporting its own adjustment while Changed target reads no computed a movement that a later reconciliation absorbed, or that rounded away at the integer score. That is recorded rather than hidden.

No KPI layer recorded.

Per-player metric movement

BOS against Tyron Guerrero (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to BOS hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 22.5529 of 36.703 projected batters (61.5%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 38.6%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Roman Anthony	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.835 → 0.737	-0.098	0.2169	0.2162n=242 Average	0.1805n=741 Very good	0.1798	-0.003	-0.163	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.832 at 0.615 share (log5 0.1798 vs his 0.1805) + bullpen x0.9621 at 0.386 share (log5 0.2080 vs pen 0.2087) = x0.8822 \| starter alone would have been -0.140
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.515 → 1.849	+0.334	0.2212	0.2641n=242 Below average	0.3029n=741 Very good	0.3544	+0.192	+0.365	+0.039 ok
		split	starter x1.342 at 0.615 share (log5 0.3544 vs his 0.3029) + bullpen x1.0273 at 0.386 share (log5 0.2713 vs pen 0.2276) = x1.2207 \| starter alone would have been +0.518
		Walkswhole staff	0.463 → 0.401	-0.062	0.0889	0.1096n=242 Good	0.0701n=741 Good	0.0869	+0.093	-0.084	-0.018 ok
		split	starter x0.7924 at 0.615 share (log5 0.0869 vs his 0.0701) + bullpen x0.9842 at 0.386 share (log5 0.1079 vs pen 0.0875) = x0.8663 \| starter alone would have been -0.096
		Home runswhole staff	0.134 → 0.112	-0.022	0.0304	0.0257n=242 Average	0.0249n=741 Good	0.0211	-0.021	-0.025	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8187 at 0.615 share (log5 0.0211 vs his 0.0249) + bullpen x0.8649 at 0.386 share (log5 0.0223 vs pen 0.0263) = x0.8365 \| starter alone would have been -0.024
Willson Contreras	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.743 → 0.656	-0.087	0.2169	0.2240n=526 Average	0.1805n=741 Very good	0.1867	+0.029	-0.145	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8334 at 0.615 share (log5 0.1867 vs his 0.1805) + bullpen x0.9625 at 0.386 share (log5 0.2156 vs pen 0.2087) = x0.8832 \| starter alone would have been -0.124
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.371 → 1.683	+0.312	0.2212	0.2467n=526 Below average	0.3029n=741 Very good	0.3338	+0.102	+0.325	+0.021 ok
		split	starter x1.3529 at 0.615 share (log5 0.3338 vs his 0.3029) + bullpen x1.0279 at 0.386 share (log5 0.2536 vs pen 0.2276) = x1.2276 \| starter alone would have been +0.484
		Walkswhole staff	0.387 → 0.336	-0.052	0.0889	0.1079n=526 Good	0.0701n=741 Good	0.0854	+0.075	-0.075	-0.015 ok
		split	starter x0.7921 at 0.615 share (log5 0.0854 vs his 0.0701) + bullpen x0.9842 at 0.386 share (log5 0.1062 vs pen 0.0875) = x0.8662 \| starter alone would have been -0.081
		Home runswhole staff	0.193 → 0.162	-0.031	0.0304	0.0443n=526 Very good	0.0249n=741 Good	0.0364	+0.056	-0.022	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x0.8216 at 0.615 share (log5 0.0364 vs his 0.0249) + bullpen x0.8671 at 0.386 share (log5 0.0384 vs pen 0.0263) = x0.8391 \| starter alone would have been -0.035
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.882 → 0.781	-0.101	0.2169	0.2439n=562 Very good	0.1805n=741 Very good	0.2042	+0.107	-0.144	-0.013 ok
		split	starter x0.837 at 0.615 share (log5 0.2042 vs his 0.1805) + bullpen x0.9634 at 0.386 share (log5 0.2350 vs pen 0.2087) = x0.8857 \| starter alone would have been -0.144
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.239 → 1.541	+0.302	0.2212	0.2076n=562 Average	0.3029n=741 Very good	0.2861	-0.054	+0.323	-0.013 ok
		split	starter x1.3782 at 0.615 share (log5 0.2861 vs his 0.3029) + bullpen x1.0294 at 0.386 share (log5 0.2137 vs pen 0.2276) = x1.2437 \| starter alone would have been +0.469
		Walkswhole staff	0.180 → 0.155	-0.025	0.0889	0.0479n=562 Poor	0.0701n=741 Good	0.0374	-0.162	-0.074	+0.033 ok
		split	starter x0.7812 at 0.615 share (log5 0.0374 vs his 0.0701) + bullpen x0.9831 at 0.386 share (log5 0.0470 vs pen 0.0875) = x0.859 \| starter alone would have been -0.040
		Home runswhole staff	0.126 → 0.105	-0.021	0.0304	0.0279n=562 Average	0.0249n=741 Good	0.0228	-0.010	-0.022	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8191 at 0.615 share (log5 0.0228 vs his 0.0249) + bullpen x0.8652 at 0.386 share (log5 0.0241 vs pen 0.0263) = x0.8369 \| starter alone would have been -0.023
Adley Rutschman	C	Hitswhole staff	0.793 → 0.700	-0.094	0.2169	0.2143n=402 Average	0.1805n=741 Very good	0.1782	-0.011	-0.153	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8316 at 0.615 share (log5 0.1782 vs his 0.1805) + bullpen x0.9621 at 0.386 share (log5 0.2061 vs pen 0.2087) = x0.8819 \| starter alone would have been -0.134
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.990 → 1.246	+0.256	0.2212	0.1726n=402 Good	0.3029n=741 Very good	0.2419	-0.204	+0.343	-0.052 ok
		split	starter x1.4016 at 0.615 share (log5 0.2419 vs his 0.3029) + bullpen x1.0307 at 0.386 share (log5 0.1779 vs pen 0.2276) = x1.2586 \| starter alone would have been +0.398
		Walkswhole staff	0.367 → 0.317	-0.050	0.0889	0.0913n=402 Average	0.0701n=741 Good	0.0721	+0.010	-0.079	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.789 at 0.615 share (log5 0.0721 vs his 0.0701) + bullpen x0.9839 at 0.386 share (log5 0.0899 vs pen 0.0875) = x0.8641 \| starter alone would have been -0.077
		Home runswhole staff	0.151 → 0.127	-0.025	0.0304	0.0316n=402 Average	0.0249n=741 Good	0.0259	+0.005	-0.023	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8196 at 0.615 share (log5 0.0259 vs his 0.0249) + bullpen x0.8656 at 0.386 share (log5 0.0273 vs pen 0.0263) = x0.8373 \| starter alone would have been -0.027
Wilyer Abreu	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.759 → 0.669	-0.089	0.2169	0.2181n=667 Average	0.1805n=741 Very good	0.1815	+0.005	-0.149	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8323 at 0.615 share (log5 0.1815 vs his 0.1805) + bullpen x0.9622 at 0.386 share (log5 0.2099 vs pen 0.2087) = x0.8824 \| starter alone would have been -0.127
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.167 → 1.451	+0.284	0.2212	0.2079n=667 Average	0.3029n=741 Very good	0.2864	-0.054	+0.334	-0.013 ok
		split	starter x1.378 at 0.615 share (log5 0.2864 vs his 0.3029) + bullpen x1.0294 at 0.386 share (log5 0.2140 vs pen 0.2276) = x1.2436 \| starter alone would have been +0.441
		Walkswhole staff	0.401 → 0.347	-0.054	0.0889	0.1025n=667 Good	0.0701n=741 Good	0.0811	+0.056	-0.077	-0.011 ok
		split	starter x0.7911 at 0.615 share (log5 0.0811 vs his 0.0701) + bullpen x0.9841 at 0.386 share (log5 0.1009 vs pen 0.0875) = x0.8655 \| starter alone would have been -0.084
		Home runswhole staff	0.150 → 0.126	-0.024	0.0304	0.0333n=667 Average	0.0249n=741 Good	0.0273	+0.012	-0.022	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8199 at 0.615 share (log5 0.0273 vs his 0.0249) + bullpen x0.8658 at 0.386 share (log5 0.0289 vs pen 0.0263) = x0.8376 \| starter alone would have been -0.027
Nick Sogard	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.761 → 0.671	-0.090	0.2169	0.2166n=273 Average	0.1805n=741 Very good	0.1802	-0.001	-0.147	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8321 at 0.615 share (log5 0.1802 vs his 0.1805) + bullpen x0.9622 at 0.386 share (log5 0.2084 vs pen 0.2087) = x0.8823 \| starter alone would have been -0.128
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.097 → 1.364	+0.267	0.2212	0.2076n=273 Average	0.3029n=741 Very good	0.2861	-0.055	+0.330	-0.013 ok
		split	starter x1.3782 at 0.615 share (log5 0.2861 vs his 0.3029) + bullpen x1.0294 at 0.386 share (log5 0.2137 vs pen 0.2276) = x1.2437 \| starter alone would have been +0.415
		Walkswhole staff	0.410 → 0.355	-0.055	0.0889	0.1061n=273 Good	0.0701n=741 Good	0.0840	+0.069	-0.076	-0.013 ok
		split	starter x0.7918 at 0.615 share (log5 0.0840 vs his 0.0701) + bullpen x0.9841 at 0.386 share (log5 0.1044 vs pen 0.0875) = x0.8659 \| starter alone would have been -0.085
		Home runswhole staff	0.116 → 0.097	-0.019	0.0304	0.0243n=273 Below average	0.0249n=741 Good	0.0199	-0.025	-0.022	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8185 at 0.615 share (log5 0.0199 vs his 0.0249) + bullpen x0.8647 at 0.386 share (log5 0.0210 vs pen 0.0263) = x0.8363 \| starter alone would have been -0.021
Jarren Duran	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.626 → 0.551	-0.075	0.2169	0.1994n=600 Poor	0.1805n=741 Very good	0.1653	-0.062	-0.129	+0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.829 at 0.615 share (log5 0.1653 vs his 0.1805) + bullpen x0.9614 at 0.386 share (log5 0.1917 vs pen 0.2087) = x0.88 \| starter alone would have been -0.107
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.275 → 1.554	+0.279	0.2212	0.2679n=600 Below average	0.3029n=741 Very good	0.3589	+0.166	+0.290	+0.033 ok
		split	starter x1.3396 at 0.615 share (log5 0.3589 vs his 0.3029) + bullpen x1.0271 at 0.386 share (log5 0.2751 vs pen 0.2276) = x1.2191 \| starter alone would have been +0.433
		Walkswhole staff	0.248 → 0.213	-0.034	0.0889	0.0717n=600 Below average	0.0701n=741 Good	0.0564	-0.061	-0.067	+0.012 ok
		split	starter x0.7855 at 0.615 share (log5 0.0564 vs his 0.0701) + bullpen x0.9835 at 0.386 share (log5 0.0706 vs pen 0.0875) = x0.8618 \| starter alone would have been -0.053
		Home runswhole staff	0.130 → 0.109	-0.021	0.0304	0.0324n=600 Average	0.0249n=741 Good	0.0266	+0.007	-0.019	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8197 at 0.615 share (log5 0.0266 vs his 0.0249) + bullpen x0.8657 at 0.386 share (log5 0.0281 vs pen 0.0263) = x0.8374 \| starter alone would have been -0.024
Trevor Story	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.717 → 0.633	-0.084	0.2169	0.2187n=266 Average	0.1805n=741 Very good	0.1821	+0.007	-0.133	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8324 at 0.615 share (log5 0.1821 vs his 0.1805) + bullpen x0.9623 at 0.386 share (log5 0.2105 vs pen 0.2087) = x0.8825 \| starter alone would have been -0.120
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.495 → 1.799	+0.304	0.2212	0.3075n=266 Poor	0.3029n=741 Very good	0.4045	+0.315	+0.298	+0.056 ok
		split	starter x1.3155 at 0.615 share (log5 0.4045 vs his 0.3029) + bullpen x1.0256 at 0.386 share (log5 0.3154 vs pen 0.2276) = x1.2037 \| starter alone would have been +0.471
		Walkswhole staff	0.193 → 0.166	-0.027	0.0889	0.0561n=266 Poor	0.0701n=741 Good	0.0439	-0.120	-0.069	+0.024 ok
		split	starter x0.7826 at 0.615 share (log5 0.0439 vs his 0.0701) + bullpen x0.9833 at 0.386 share (log5 0.0551 vs pen 0.0875) = x0.86 \| starter alone would have been -0.042
		Home runswhole staff	0.104 → 0.087	-0.017	0.0304	0.0246n=266 Below average	0.0249n=741 Good	0.0201	-0.021	-0.020	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8185 at 0.615 share (log5 0.0201 vs his 0.0249) + bullpen x0.8648 at 0.386 share (log5 0.0213 vs pen 0.0263) = x0.8363 \| starter alone would have been -0.019
Caleb Durbin	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.634 → 0.559	-0.075	0.2169	0.2127n=573 Average	0.1805n=741 Very good	0.1768	-0.014	-0.122	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8314 at 0.615 share (log5 0.1768 vs his 0.1805) + bullpen x0.962 at 0.386 share (log5 0.2046 vs pen 0.2087) = x0.8817 \| starter alone would have been -0.107
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.674 → 0.857	+0.183	0.2212	0.1428n=573 Very good	0.3029n=741 Very good	0.2031	-0.264	+0.275	-0.072 ok
		split	starter x1.4222 at 0.615 share (log5 0.2031 vs his 0.3029) + bullpen x1.0319 at 0.386 share (log5 0.1473 vs pen 0.2276) = x1.2717 \| starter alone would have been +0.285
		Walkswhole staff	0.269 → 0.232	-0.037	0.0889	0.0875n=573 Average	0.0701n=741 Good	0.0690	-0.005	-0.063	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.7884 at 0.615 share (log5 0.0690 vs his 0.0701) + bullpen x0.9838 at 0.386 share (log5 0.0861 vs pen 0.0875) = x0.8637 \| starter alone would have been -0.057
		Home runswhole staff	0.116 → 0.097	-0.019	0.0304	0.0251n=573 Below average	0.0249n=741 Good	0.0206	-0.018	-0.018	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8186 at 0.615 share (log5 0.0206 vs his 0.0249) + bullpen x0.8648 at 0.386 share (log5 0.0217 vs pen 0.0263) = x0.8364 \| starter alone would have been -0.021
STARTER Payton Tolle23.3655 BF	Starter	Hits	4.913 → 4.948	+0.035	0.2169	0.2082n=603 Average	0.21848/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2097	-0.202	+0.036	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	7.051 → 7.594	+0.543	0.2212	0.2763n=603 Very good	0.23978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2976	+1.286	+0.431	+0.066 ok
		Walks	1.422 → 1.500	+0.078	0.0889	0.0710n=603 Good	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0749	-0.418	+0.112	-0.021 ok
		Home runs	0.455 → 0.516	+0.062	0.0304	0.0272n=603 Average	0.03458/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0309	-0.074	+0.096	-0.010 ok
RELIEVER Erik Miller1.5729 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.760 → 0.765	+0.005	0.2169	0.1934n=227 Very good	0.21848/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1948	-0.037	+0.002	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.341 → 1.441	+0.100	0.2212	0.2986n=227 Very good	0.23978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3209	+0.122	+0.029	+0.006 ok
		Walks	0.772 → 0.812	+0.040	0.0889	0.1248n=227 Poor	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1313	+0.057	+0.007	+0.003 ok
		Home runs	0.046 → 0.053	+0.006	0.0304	0.0246n=227 Good	0.03458/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0280	-0.009	+0.006	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Greg Weissert1.5049 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.326 → 0.328	+0.002	0.2169	0.2163n=255 Average	0.21848/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2179	-0.001	+0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.349 → 0.378	+0.029	0.2212	0.2319n=255 Average	0.23978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2510	+0.016	+0.028	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.124 → 0.131	+0.007	0.0889	0.0824n=255 Average	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0869	-0.010	+0.007	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.046 → 0.052	+0.006	0.0304	0.0307n=255 Average	0.03458/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0349	+0.001	+0.006	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Wyatt Olds1.5049 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.326 → 0.329	+0.002	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21848/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2184	0	+0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.333 → 0.361	+0.028	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.23978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2397	0	+0.028	0 ok
		Walks	0.134 → 0.141	+0.007	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0937	0	+0.007	0 ok
		Home runs	0.046 → 0.052	+0.006	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03458/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0345	0	+0.006	0 ok
RELIEVER Jovani Morán1.471 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.276 → 0.278	+0.002	0.2169	0.1879n=269 Very good	0.21848/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1893	-0.043	+0.002	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.378 → 0.408	+0.030	0.2212	0.2570n=269 Good	0.23978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2774	+0.053	+0.027	+0.003 ok
		Walks	0.162 → 0.171	+0.009	0.0889	0.1102n=269 Below average	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1160	+0.031	+0.007	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.046 → 0.053	+0.006	0.0304	0.0315n=269 Average	0.03458/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0358	+0.002	+0.006	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Alec Gamboa1.3336 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.285 → 0.287	+0.002	0.2169	0.2139n=121 Average	0.21848/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2154	-0.004	+0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.263 → 0.286	+0.023	0.2212	0.1975n=121 Below average	0.23978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2145	-0.032	+0.025	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.120 → 0.126	+0.006	0.0889	0.0898n=121 Average	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0946	+0.001	+0.006	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.034 → 0.039	+0.005	0.0304	0.0257n=121 Good	0.03458/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0292	-0.006	+0.005	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Raymond Burgos1.0604 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.230 → 0.232	+0.002	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21848/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2184	0	+0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.235 → 0.254	+0.020	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.23978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2397	0	+0.020	0 ok
		Walks	0.094 → 0.099	+0.005	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0937	0	+0.005	0 ok
		Home runs	0.032 → 0.037	+0.004	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03458/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0345	0	+0.004	0 ok
RELIEVER Aroldis Chapman1.0264 BF	Closer	Hits	0.508 → 0.511	+0.004	0.2169	0.1944n=209 Very good	0.21848/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1958	-0.023	+0.002	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.476 → 1.585	+0.109	0.2212	0.3068n=209 Very good	0.23978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3294	+0.088	+0.019	+0.004 ok
		Walks	0.473 → 0.498	+0.025	0.0889	0.0982n=209 Average	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1035	+0.010	+0.005	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.043 → 0.049	+0.006	0.0304	0.0253n=209 Good	0.03458/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0287	-0.005	+0.004	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Garrett Whitlock1.0264 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.215 → 0.216	+0.002	0.2169	0.2094n=192 Average	0.21848/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2109	-0.008	+0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.286 → 0.307	+0.022	0.2212	0.2783n=192 Very good	0.23978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2996	+0.059	+0.019	+0.003 ok
		Walks	0.068 → 0.071	+0.004	0.0889	0.0658n=192 Very good	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0695	-0.024	+0.005	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.027 → 0.030	+0.004	0.0304	0.0260n=192 Good	0.03458/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0295	-0.005	+0.004	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Patrick Sandoval0.991 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.241 → 0.243	+0.002	0.2169	0.2435n=321 Poor	0.21848/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2452	+0.026	+0.002	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.224 → 0.243	+0.019	0.2212	0.2262n=321 Average	0.23978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2449	+0.005	+0.018	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.095 → 0.100	+0.005	0.0889	0.0961n=321 Average	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1013	+0.007	+0.005	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.027 → 0.030	+0.004	0.0304	0.0268n=321 Good	0.03458/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0304	-0.004	+0.004	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Brayan Bello0.8551 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.200 → 0.202	+0.001	0.2169	0.2343n=503 Poor	0.21848/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2359	+0.015	+0.001	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.161 → 0.175	+0.014	0.2212	0.1882n=503 Below average	0.23978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2046	-0.028	+0.016	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.065 → 0.068	+0.004	0.0889	0.0757n=503 Good	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0798	-0.011	+0.004	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.023 → 0.026	+0.003	0.0304	0.0269n=503 Good	0.03458/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0306	-0.003	+0.004	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Jedixson Paez0.7178 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.156 → 0.157	+0.001	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21848/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2184	0	+0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.159 → 0.172	+0.013	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.23978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2397	0	+0.013	0 ok
		Walks	0.064 → 0.067	+0.003	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0937	0	+0.003	0 ok
		Home runs	0.022 → 0.025	+0.003	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03458/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0345	0	+0.003	0 ok
RELIEVER Jake Bennett0.5819 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.132 → 0.133	+0.001	0.2169	0.2272n=387 Below average	0.21848/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2288	+0.006	+0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.118 → 0.128	+0.010	0.2212	0.2028n=387 Average	0.23978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2201	-0.011	+0.011	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.036 → 0.038	+0.002	0.0889	0.0625n=387 Very good	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0659	-0.015	+0.003	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.017 → 0.019	+0.002	0.0304	0.0295n=387 Average	0.03458/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0335	-0.001	+0.002	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Tyron Guerrero0.5125 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.112 → 0.113	+0.001	0.2169	0.2188n=162 Average	0.21848/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2203	+0.001	+0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.124 → 0.134	+0.010	0.2212	0.2425n=162 Average	0.23978/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2622	+0.011	+0.009	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.035 → 0.037	+0.002	0.0889	0.0689n=162 Good	0.09378/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0727	-0.010	+0.003	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.013 → 0.015	+0.002	0.0304	0.0256n=162 Good	0.03458/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0291	-0.003	+0.002	-0.000 ok

NYY against Will Warren (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to NYY hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 23.3655 of 37.523 projected batters (62.3%) and the 2 projected relievers for the remaining 37.7%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Heliot Ramos	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.818 → 0.791	-0.027	0.2169	0.2212n=430 Average	0.2082n=603 Average	0.2124	+0.017	-0.033	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9603 at 0.623 share (log5 0.2124 vs his 0.2082) + bullpen x0.9784 at 0.377 share (log5 0.2164 vs pen 0.2122) = x0.9671 \| starter alone would have been -0.033
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.307 → 1.538	+0.231	0.2212	0.2627n=430 Below average	0.2763n=603 Very good	0.3238	+0.159	+0.211	+0.023 ok
		split	starter x1.2325 at 0.623 share (log5 0.3238 vs his 0.2763) + bullpen x1.0849 at 0.377 share (log5 0.2851 vs pen 0.2411) = x1.1768 \| starter alone would have been +0.304
		Walkswhole staff	0.285 → 0.252	-0.033	0.0889	0.0757n=430 Below average	0.0710n=603 Good	0.0603	-0.051	-0.069	+0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.7963 at 0.623 share (log5 0.0603 vs his 0.0710) + bullpen x1.0284 at 0.377 share (log5 0.0779 vs pen 0.0914) = x0.8839 \| starter alone would have been -0.058
		Home runswhole staff	0.139 → 0.126	-0.013	0.0304	0.0303n=430 Average	0.0272n=603 Average	0.0271	-0.000	-0.012	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8958 at 0.623 share (log5 0.0271 vs his 0.0272) + bullpen x0.9246 at 0.377 share (log5 0.0280 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.9067 \| starter alone would have been -0.014
George Lombard Jr.	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.855 → 0.827	-0.028	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2082n=603 Average	0.2082	0	-0.035	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9601 at 0.623 share (log5 0.2082 vs his 0.2082) + bullpen x0.9782 at 0.377 share (log5 0.2122 vs pen 0.2122) = x0.9669 \| starter alone would have been -0.034
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.252 → 1.488	+0.236	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2763n=603 Very good	0.2763	0	+0.220	0 ok
		split	starter x1.2489 at 0.623 share (log5 0.2763 vs his 0.2763) + bullpen x1.0901 at 0.377 share (log5 0.2411 vs pen 0.2411) = x1.189 \| starter alone would have been +0.311
		Walkswhole staff	0.296 → 0.262	-0.034	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0710n=603 Good	0.0710	0	-0.071	0 ok
		split	starter x0.7986 at 0.623 share (log5 0.0710 vs his 0.0710) + bullpen x1.028 at 0.377 share (log5 0.0914 vs pen 0.0914) = x0.8852 \| starter alone would have been -0.059
		Home runswhole staff	0.170 → 0.154	-0.016	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0272n=603 Average	0.0272	0	-0.013	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8958 at 0.623 share (log5 0.0272 vs his 0.0272) + bullpen x0.9246 at 0.377 share (log5 0.0281 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.9067 \| starter alone would have been -0.018
Paul Goldschmidt	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.949 → 0.918	-0.031	0.2169	0.2244n=373 Average	0.2082n=603 Average	0.2155	+0.033	-0.037	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9604 at 0.623 share (log5 0.2155 vs his 0.2082) + bullpen x0.9784 at 0.377 share (log5 0.2195 vs pen 0.2122) = x0.9672 \| starter alone would have been -0.038
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.246 → 1.480	+0.233	0.2212	0.2271n=373 Average	0.2763n=603 Very good	0.2831	+0.025	+0.238	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.2465 at 0.623 share (log5 0.2831 vs his 0.2763) + bullpen x1.0894 at 0.377 share (log5 0.2474 vs pen 0.2411) = x1.1872 \| starter alone would have been +0.307
		Walkswhole staff	0.318 → 0.281	-0.037	0.0889	0.0805n=373 Average	0.0710n=603 Good	0.0641	-0.037	-0.077	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.7971 at 0.623 share (log5 0.0641 vs his 0.0710) + bullpen x1.0283 at 0.377 share (log5 0.0827 vs pen 0.0914) = x0.8843 \| starter alone would have been -0.065
		Home runswhole staff	0.213 → 0.194	-0.020	0.0304	0.0408n=373 Good	0.0272n=603 Average	0.0366	+0.045	-0.014	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8968 at 0.623 share (log5 0.0366 vs his 0.0272) + bullpen x0.9253 at 0.377 share (log5 0.0378 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.9076 \| starter alone would have been -0.022
Cody Bellinger	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.948 → 0.917	-0.031	0.2169	0.2269n=549 Good	0.2082n=603 Average	0.2180	+0.043	-0.037	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9606 at 0.623 share (log5 0.2180 vs his 0.2082) + bullpen x0.9785 at 0.377 share (log5 0.2220 vs pen 0.2122) = x0.9674 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.898 → 1.084	+0.186	0.2212	0.1619n=549 Good	0.2763n=603 Very good	0.2061	-0.255	+0.236	-0.047 ok
		split	starter x1.273 at 0.623 share (log5 0.2061 vs his 0.2763) + bullpen x1.0977 at 0.377 share (log5 0.1777 vs pen 0.2411) = x1.2069 \| starter alone would have been +0.245
		Walkswhole staff	0.384 → 0.340	-0.043	0.0889	0.1027n=549 Good	0.0710n=603 Good	0.0822	+0.059	-0.077	-0.011 ok
		split	starter x0.8011 at 0.623 share (log5 0.0822 vs his 0.0710) + bullpen x1.0276 at 0.377 share (log5 0.1055 vs pen 0.0914) = x0.8866 \| starter alone would have been -0.076
		Home runswhole staff	0.150 → 0.136	-0.014	0.0304	0.0295n=549 Average	0.0272n=603 Average	0.0265	-0.004	-0.014	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8957 at 0.623 share (log5 0.0265 vs his 0.0272) + bullpen x0.9245 at 0.377 share (log5 0.0273 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.9066 \| starter alone would have been -0.016
Anthony Volpe	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.809 → 0.782	-0.027	0.2169	0.2178n=237 Average	0.2082n=603 Average	0.2091	+0.004	-0.034	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9601 at 0.623 share (log5 0.2091 vs his 0.2082) + bullpen x0.9783 at 0.377 share (log5 0.2130 vs pen 0.2122) = x0.967 \| starter alone would have been -0.032
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.091 → 1.298	+0.207	0.2212	0.2197n=237 Average	0.2763n=603 Very good	0.2745	-0.006	+0.214	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.2495 at 0.623 share (log5 0.2745 vs his 0.2763) + bullpen x1.0903 at 0.377 share (log5 0.2396 vs pen 0.2411) = x1.1894 \| starter alone would have been +0.272
		Walkswhole staff	0.378 → 0.335	-0.043	0.0889	0.0999n=237 Average	0.0710n=603 Good	0.0800	+0.043	-0.070	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.8006 at 0.623 share (log5 0.0800 vs his 0.0710) + bullpen x1.0276 at 0.377 share (log5 0.1027 vs pen 0.0914) = x0.8862 \| starter alone would have been -0.075
		Home runswhole staff	0.090 → 0.081	-0.008	0.0304	0.0200n=237 Poor	0.0272n=603 Average	0.0179	-0.040	-0.012	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8948 at 0.623 share (log5 0.0179 vs his 0.0272) + bullpen x0.9238 at 0.377 share (log5 0.0185 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.9057 \| starter alone would have been -0.009
Ben Rice	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.890 → 0.861	-0.029	0.2169	0.2240n=651 Average	0.2082n=603 Average	0.2152	+0.030	-0.036	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9604 at 0.623 share (log5 0.2152 vs his 0.2082) + bullpen x0.9784 at 0.377 share (log5 0.2192 vs pen 0.2122) = x0.9672 \| starter alone would have been -0.035
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.291 → 1.527	+0.237	0.2212	0.2398n=651 Average	0.2763n=603 Very good	0.2977	+0.077	+0.229	+0.012 ok
		split	starter x1.2415 at 0.623 share (log5 0.2977 vs his 0.2763) + bullpen x1.0878 at 0.377 share (log5 0.2608 vs pen 0.2411) = x1.1835 \| starter alone would have been +0.312
		Walkswhole staff	0.441 → 0.392	-0.049	0.0889	0.1228n=651 Very good	0.0710n=603 Good	0.0988	+0.141	-0.074	-0.025 ok
		split	starter x0.8047 at 0.623 share (log5 0.0988 vs his 0.0710) + bullpen x1.0269 at 0.377 share (log5 0.1261 vs pen 0.0914) = x0.8885 \| starter alone would have been -0.086
		Home runswhole staff	0.244 → 0.222	-0.022	0.0304	0.0536n=651 Very good	0.0272n=603 Average	0.0481	+0.096	-0.013	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.8981 at 0.623 share (log5 0.0481 vs his 0.0272) + bullpen x0.9262 at 0.377 share (log5 0.0496 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.9087 \| starter alone would have been -0.025
Amed Rosario	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.770 → 0.744	-0.025	0.2169	0.2197n=240 Average	0.2082n=603 Average	0.2110	+0.010	-0.031	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9602 at 0.623 share (log5 0.2110 vs his 0.2082) + bullpen x0.9783 at 0.377 share (log5 0.2150 vs pen 0.2122) = x0.967 \| starter alone would have been -0.031
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.088 → 1.290	+0.201	0.2212	0.2348n=240 Average	0.2763n=603 Very good	0.2919	+0.048	+0.195	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x1.2435 at 0.623 share (log5 0.2919 vs his 0.2763) + bullpen x1.0884 at 0.377 share (log5 0.2555 vs pen 0.2411) = x1.185 \| starter alone would have been +0.265
		Walkswhole staff	0.221 → 0.196	-0.026	0.0889	0.0685n=240 Below average	0.0710n=603 Good	0.0544	-0.072	-0.064	+0.014 ok
		split	starter x0.795 at 0.623 share (log5 0.0544 vs his 0.0710) + bullpen x1.0286 at 0.377 share (log5 0.0704 vs pen 0.0914) = x0.8831 \| starter alone would have been -0.045
		Home runswhole staff	0.150 → 0.136	-0.014	0.0304	0.0358n=240 Good	0.0272n=603 Average	0.0320	+0.019	-0.011	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8963 at 0.623 share (log5 0.0320 vs his 0.0272) + bullpen x0.925 at 0.377 share (log5 0.0331 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.9071 \| starter alone would have been -0.016
Spencer Jones	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.831 → 0.803	-0.028	0.2169	0.2177n=283 Average	0.2082n=603 Average	0.2090	+0.003	-0.033	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9601 at 0.623 share (log5 0.2090 vs his 0.2082) + bullpen x0.9783 at 0.377 share (log5 0.2130 vs pen 0.2122) = x0.967 \| starter alone would have been -0.033
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.775 → 2.047	+0.272	0.2212	0.3460n=283 Poor	0.2763n=603 Very good	0.4156	+0.477	+0.210	+0.055 ok
		split	starter x1.201 at 0.623 share (log5 0.4156 vs his 0.2763) + bullpen x1.0746 at 0.377 share (log5 0.3718 vs pen 0.2411) = x1.1533 \| starter alone would have been +0.357
		Walkswhole staff	0.290 → 0.257	-0.033	0.0889	0.0885n=283 Average	0.0710n=603 Good	0.0707	-0.002	-0.068	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.7986 at 0.623 share (log5 0.0707 vs his 0.0710) + bullpen x1.028 at 0.377 share (log5 0.0910 vs pen 0.0914) = x0.8852 \| starter alone would have been -0.058
		Home runswhole staff	0.154 → 0.139	-0.014	0.0304	0.0348n=283 Average	0.0272n=603 Average	0.0312	+0.017	-0.012	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8962 at 0.623 share (log5 0.0312 vs his 0.0272) + bullpen x0.9249 at 0.377 share (log5 0.0322 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.907 \| starter alone would have been -0.016
Austin Wells	C	Hitswhole staff	0.605 → 0.584	-0.021	0.2169	0.1904n=387 Poor	0.2082n=603 Average	0.1825	-0.085	-0.028	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9588 at 0.623 share (log5 0.1825 vs his 0.2082) + bullpen x0.9775 at 0.377 share (log5 0.1861 vs pen 0.2122) = x0.9659 \| starter alone would have been -0.025
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.100 → 1.295	+0.196	0.2212	0.2588n=387 Below average	0.2763n=603 Very good	0.3194	+0.121	+0.177	+0.018 ok
		split	starter x1.234 at 0.623 share (log5 0.3194 vs his 0.2763) + bullpen x1.0854 at 0.377 share (log5 0.2809 vs pen 0.2411) = x1.1779 \| starter alone would have been +0.257
		Walkswhole staff	0.316 → 0.281	-0.035	0.0889	0.1158n=387 Good	0.0710n=603 Good	0.0930	+0.086	-0.057	-0.016 ok
		split	starter x0.8034 at 0.623 share (log5 0.0930 vs his 0.0710) + bullpen x1.0271 at 0.377 share (log5 0.1189 vs pen 0.0914) = x0.8878 \| starter alone would have been -0.062
		Home runswhole staff	0.123 → 0.112	-0.011	0.0304	0.0338n=387 Average	0.0272n=603 Average	0.0303	+0.011	-0.010	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.8961 at 0.623 share (log5 0.0303 vs his 0.0272) + bullpen x0.9248 at 0.377 share (log5 0.0313 vs pen 0.0281) = x0.9069 \| starter alone would have been -0.013
STARTER Cam Schlittler22.5529 BF	Starter	Hits	2.957 → 2.979	+0.023	0.2169	0.1805n=741 Very good	0.21859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1818	-0.821	+0.036	-0.005 ok
		Strikeouts	8.509 → 8.647	+0.139	0.2212	0.3029n=741 Very good	0.22529/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3078	+1.842	+0.091	+0.020 ok
		Walks	1.389 → 1.369	-0.020	0.0889	0.0701n=741 Good	0.08779/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0691	-0.424	-0.029	+0.006 ok
		Home runs	0.483 → 0.476	-0.007	0.0304	0.0249n=741 Good	0.03009/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0246	-0.124	-0.009	+0.002 ok
RELIEVER David Bednar2.9135 BF	Closer	Hits	0.758 → 0.764	+0.006	0.2169	0.2027n=277 Good	0.21859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2042	-0.041	+0.005	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.165 → 1.185	+0.020	0.2212	0.2624n=277 Good	0.22529/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2670	+0.120	+0.012	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.288 → 0.284	-0.004	0.0889	0.0783n=277 Good	0.08779/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0771	-0.031	-0.004	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.048 → 0.047	-0.001	0.0304	0.0243n=277 Very good	0.03009/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0240	-0.018	-0.001	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER John Schreiber2.7352 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.571 → 0.575	+0.004	0.2169	0.2088n=246 Average	0.21859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2104	-0.022	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.484 → 0.493	+0.009	0.2212	0.1770n=246 Below average	0.22529/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1804	-0.121	+0.011	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.271 → 0.267	-0.004	0.0889	0.0991n=246 Below average	0.08779/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0977	+0.028	-0.004	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.081 → 0.080	-0.001	0.0304	0.0297n=246 Average	0.03009/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0293	-0.002	-0.001	0 ok
RELIEVER Brent Headrick2.6164 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.877 → 0.884	+0.006	0.2169	0.2125n=326 Average	0.21859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2141	-0.011	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.466 → 1.490	+0.025	0.2212	0.2849n=326 Very good	0.22529/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2897	+0.167	+0.011	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.402 → 0.396	-0.006	0.0889	0.0848n=326 Average	0.08779/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0836	-0.011	-0.003	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.108 → 0.106	-0.002	0.0304	0.0240n=326 Very good	0.03009/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0237	-0.017	-0.001	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Paul Blackburn2.3786 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	1.052 → 1.060	+0.008	0.2169	0.1987n=329 Good	0.21859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2001	-0.043	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.130 → 1.151	+0.021	0.2212	0.2046n=329 Average	0.22529/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2085	-0.039	+0.010	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.483 → 0.476	-0.007	0.0889	0.0946n=329 Average	0.08779/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0932	+0.013	-0.003	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.083 → 0.082	-0.001	0.0304	0.0265n=329 Good	0.03009/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0262	-0.009	-0.001	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Ryan Yarbrough1.9626 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.408 → 0.411	+0.003	0.2169	0.2080n=253 Average	0.21859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2095	-0.018	+0.003	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.381 → 0.389	+0.007	0.2212	0.1943n=253 Below average	0.22529/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1980	-0.053	+0.008	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.167 → 0.165	-0.002	0.0889	0.0853n=253 Average	0.08779/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0841	-0.007	-0.003	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.046 → 0.046	-0.001	0.0304	0.0237n=253 Very good	0.03009/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0234	-0.013	-0.001	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Will Warren1.5452 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.354 → 0.357	+0.003	0.2169	0.2293n=673 Below average	0.21859/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2310	+0.019	+0.002	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.358 → 0.365	+0.006	0.2212	0.2320n=673 Average	0.22529/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2362	+0.017	+0.006	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.125 → 0.123	-0.002	0.0889	0.0807n=673 Average	0.08779/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0795	-0.013	-0.002	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.048 → 0.047	-0.001	0.0304	0.0309n=673 Average	0.03009/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0305	+0.001	-0.001	0 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Payton Tolle	Starter	23.4	5.2	5.677	4 / 4.913	7 / 7.051	3 / 1.422	2 / 1.814	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Aroldis Chapman	Closer	4.0	2.0	1.002	2 / 0.508	0 / 1.476	1 / 0.473	2 / 0.120	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Erik Miller	Setup Man	4.5	0.1	1.002	0 / 0.760	1 / 1.341	0 / 0.772	0 / 0.519	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Cam Schlittler	Starter	22.6	6.0	6.069	1 / 2.957	9 / 8.509	2 / 1.389	0 / 0.963	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	4.3	1.0	1.012	3 / 0.877	0 / 1.466	0 / 0.402	1 / 0.324	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
David Bednar	Closer	4.1	1.0	1.012	2 / 0.758	3 / 1.165	0 / 0.288	0 / 0.199	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	5.6	1.0	1.348	3 / 1.052	0 / 1.130	0 / 0.483	1 / 0.237	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity156 checks	PASS	156 of 156 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 3
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	24 outs recorded, 24 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.677
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Payton Tolle projected 23.4 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band2 checks	PASS	2 of 2 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 6.069
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Cam Schlittler projected 22.6 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

20260929_CHC@SD — published 4-5, 175 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20260929_CHC@SD__20260930T023734Z.json, phase post_start_rerun, generated 2026-09-30T02:37:34, first pitch 2026-09-30T02:00:00.
Published 4 - 5 with p(home) 0.507896. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; 0 of 3 draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	4.239253839954954 - 4.327861830611672	-	-	-	-	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	4 - 4	-	-	-	-	no	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	away +0.1777; home +0.4651 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
5. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
6. `capped_target`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
7. `simulation_result`	4 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

No KPI layer recorded.

Per-player metric movement

CHC against Gavin Hollowell (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CHC hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 24.2508 of 38.022 projected batters (63.8%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 36.2%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Alex Bregman	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.928 → 0.863	-0.065	0.2169	0.2246n=693 Good	0.2015n=757 Good	0.2088	+0.032	-0.064	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9297 at 0.638 share (log5 0.2088 vs his 0.2015) + bullpen x0.9298 at 0.362 share (log5 0.2088 vs pen 0.2015) = x0.9297 \| starter alone would have been -0.065
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.593 → 0.633	+0.040	0.2212	0.1493n=693 Good	0.2111n=757 Average	0.1419	-0.297	-0.042	+0.011 ok
		split	starter x0.9504 at 0.638 share (log5 0.1419 vs his 0.2111) + bullpen x1.2732 at 0.362 share (log5 0.1901 vs pen 0.2753) = x1.0673 \| starter alone would have been -0.029
		Walkswhole staff	0.470 → 0.486	+0.016	0.0889	0.1054n=693 Good	0.0919n=757 Average	0.1088	+0.068	+0.012	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0324 at 0.638 share (log5 0.1088 vs his 0.0919) + bullpen x1.0384 at 0.362 share (log5 0.1094 vs pen 0.0924) = x1.0346 \| starter alone would have been +0.015
		Home runswhole staff	0.138 → 0.123	-0.015	0.0304	0.0366n=693 Good	0.0279n=757 Average	0.0336	+0.026	-0.010	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9184 at 0.638 share (log5 0.0336 vs his 0.0279) + bullpen x0.8444 at 0.362 share (log5 0.0309 vs pen 0.0256) = x0.8916 \| starter alone would have been -0.011
Seiya Suzuki	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.874 → 0.813	-0.061	0.2169	0.2278n=624 Good	0.2015n=757 Good	0.2119	+0.048	-0.068	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.93 at 0.638 share (log5 0.2119 vs his 0.2015) + bullpen x0.93 at 0.362 share (log5 0.2119 vs pen 0.2015) = x0.93 \| starter alone would have been -0.061
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.006 → 1.063	+0.058	0.2212	0.2405n=624 Average	0.2111n=757 Average	0.2298	+0.085	-0.044	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9554 at 0.638 share (log5 0.2298 vs his 0.2111) + bullpen x1.237 at 0.362 share (log5 0.2975 vs pen 0.2753) = x1.0574 \| starter alone would have been -0.045
		Walkswhole staff	0.563 → 0.582	+0.019	0.0889	0.1219n=624 Very good	0.0919n=757 Average	0.1258	+0.145	+0.013	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0318 at 0.638 share (log5 0.1258 vs his 0.0919) + bullpen x1.0377 at 0.362 share (log5 0.1265 vs pen 0.0924) = x1.0339 \| starter alone would have been +0.018
		Home runswhole staff	0.156 → 0.139	-0.017	0.0304	0.0383n=624 Good	0.0279n=757 Average	0.0352	+0.035	-0.011	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9185 at 0.638 share (log5 0.0352 vs his 0.0279) + bullpen x0.8447 at 0.362 share (log5 0.0324 vs pen 0.0256) = x0.8918 \| starter alone would have been -0.013
Ian Happ	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.728 → 0.675	-0.053	0.2169	0.1991n=622 Poor	0.2015n=757 Good	0.1847	-0.073	-0.063	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9276 at 0.638 share (log5 0.1847 vs his 0.2015) + bullpen x0.9276 at 0.362 share (log5 0.1847 vs pen 0.2015) = x0.9276 \| starter alone would have been -0.053
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.094 → 1.151	+0.057	0.2212	0.2919n=622 Below average	0.2111n=757 Average	0.2797	+0.290	-0.042	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.9583 at 0.638 share (log5 0.2797 vs his 0.2111) + bullpen x1.2175 at 0.362 share (log5 0.3554 vs pen 0.2753) = x1.0522 \| starter alone would have been -0.046
		Walkswhole staff	0.541 → 0.560	+0.018	0.0889	0.1222n=622 Very good	0.0919n=757 Average	0.1261	+0.137	+0.012	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0318 at 0.638 share (log5 0.1261 vs his 0.0919) + bullpen x1.0377 at 0.362 share (log5 0.1268 vs pen 0.0924) = x1.0339 \| starter alone would have been +0.017
		Home runswhole staff	0.139 → 0.124	-0.015	0.0304	0.0350n=622 Good	0.0279n=757 Average	0.0321	+0.019	-0.010	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9183 at 0.638 share (log5 0.0321 vs his 0.0279) + bullpen x0.8442 at 0.362 share (log5 0.0296 vs pen 0.0256) = x0.8915 \| starter alone would have been -0.011
Pedro Ramirez	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.800 → 0.744	-0.056	0.2169	0.2260n=261 Good	0.2015n=757 Good	0.2101	+0.035	-0.060	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9299 at 0.638 share (log5 0.2101 vs his 0.2015) + bullpen x0.9299 at 0.362 share (log5 0.2102 vs pen 0.2015) = x0.9299 \| starter alone would have been -0.056
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.700 → 0.744	+0.044	0.2212	0.1833n=261 Good	0.2111n=757 Average	0.1746	-0.147	-0.039	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.9522 at 0.638 share (log5 0.1746 vs his 0.2111) + bullpen x1.2595 at 0.362 share (log5 0.2309 vs pen 0.2753) = x1.0635 \| starter alone would have been -0.033
		Walkswhole staff	0.352 → 0.365	+0.013	0.0889	0.0805n=261 Average	0.0919n=757 Average	0.0832	-0.033	+0.011	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0333 at 0.638 share (log5 0.0832 vs his 0.0919) + bullpen x1.0396 at 0.362 share (log5 0.0837 vs pen 0.0924) = x1.0356 \| starter alone would have been +0.012
		Home runswhole staff	0.102 → 0.090	-0.011	0.0304	0.0267n=261 Average	0.0279n=757 Average	0.0245	-0.014	-0.010	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9176 at 0.638 share (log5 0.0245 vs his 0.0279) + bullpen x0.8431 at 0.362 share (log5 0.0225 vs pen 0.0256) = x0.8906 \| starter alone would have been -0.008
Michael Busch	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.768 → 0.713	-0.055	0.2169	0.2106n=697 Below average	0.2015n=757 Good	0.1955	-0.026	-0.065	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9286 at 0.638 share (log5 0.1955 vs his 0.2015) + bullpen x0.9286 at 0.362 share (log5 0.1955 vs pen 0.2015) = x0.9286 \| starter alone would have been -0.055
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.888 → 0.941	+0.052	0.2212	0.2304n=697 Average	0.2111n=757 Average	0.2200	+0.038	-0.042	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9549 at 0.638 share (log5 0.2200 vs his 0.2111) + bullpen x1.2409 at 0.362 share (log5 0.2858 vs pen 0.2753) = x1.0585 \| starter alone would have been -0.040
		Walkswhole staff	0.577 → 0.596	+0.019	0.0889	0.1233n=697 Very good	0.0919n=757 Average	0.1272	+0.144	+0.012	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.0317 at 0.638 share (log5 0.1272 vs his 0.0919) + bullpen x1.0377 at 0.362 share (log5 0.1279 vs pen 0.0924) = x1.0339 \| starter alone would have been +0.018
		Home runswhole staff	0.109 → 0.097	-0.012	0.0304	0.0281n=697 Average	0.0279n=757 Average	0.0258	-0.009	-0.011	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9177 at 0.638 share (log5 0.0258 vs his 0.0279) + bullpen x0.8433 at 0.362 share (log5 0.0237 vs pen 0.0256) = x0.8908 \| starter alone would have been -0.009
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.922 → 0.858	-0.064	0.2169	0.2313n=712 Good	0.2015n=757 Good	0.2151	+0.065	-0.070	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9303 at 0.638 share (log5 0.2151 vs his 0.2015) + bullpen x0.9303 at 0.362 share (log5 0.2152 vs pen 0.2015) = x0.9303 \| starter alone would have been -0.064
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.056 → 1.115	+0.059	0.2212	0.2534n=712 Below average	0.2111n=757 Average	0.2423	+0.146	-0.046	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.9562 at 0.638 share (log5 0.2423 vs his 0.2111) + bullpen x1.232 at 0.362 share (log5 0.3122 vs pen 0.2753) = x1.0561 \| starter alone would have been -0.046
		Walkswhole staff	0.564 → 0.584	+0.019	0.0889	0.1114n=712 Good	0.0919n=757 Average	0.1150	+0.102	+0.013	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.0322 at 0.638 share (log5 0.1150 vs his 0.0919) + bullpen x1.0382 at 0.362 share (log5 0.1157 vs pen 0.0924) = x1.0344 \| starter alone would have been +0.018
		Home runswhole staff	0.232 → 0.207	-0.025	0.0304	0.0543n=712 Very good	0.0279n=757 Average	0.0500	+0.108	-0.011	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.9198 at 0.638 share (log5 0.0500 vs his 0.0279) + bullpen x0.8469 at 0.362 share (log5 0.0460 vs pen 0.0256) = x0.8934 \| starter alone would have been -0.019
Nico Hoerner	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.852 → 0.793	-0.059	0.2169	0.2318n=675 Good	0.2015n=757 Good	0.2156	+0.059	-0.061	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9303 at 0.638 share (log5 0.2156 vs his 0.2015) + bullpen x0.9304 at 0.362 share (log5 0.2156 vs pen 0.2015) = x0.9303 \| starter alone would have been -0.059
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.376 → 0.403	+0.028	0.2212	0.0936n=675 Very good	0.2111n=757 Average	0.0887	-0.506	-0.040	+0.021 ok
		split	starter x0.9473 at 0.638 share (log5 0.0887 vs his 0.2111) + bullpen x1.2964 at 0.362 share (log5 0.1214 vs pen 0.2753) = x1.0737 \| starter alone would have been -0.020
		Walkswhole staff	0.293 → 0.304	+0.011	0.0889	0.0637n=675 Below average	0.0919n=757 Average	0.0659	-0.100	+0.012	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.034 at 0.638 share (log5 0.0659 vs his 0.0919) + bullpen x1.0403 at 0.362 share (log5 0.0663 vs pen 0.0924) = x1.0363 \| starter alone would have been +0.010
		Home runswhole staff	0.066 → 0.059	-0.007	0.0304	0.0171n=675 Poor	0.0279n=757 Average	0.0156	-0.053	-0.010	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.9169 at 0.638 share (log5 0.0156 vs his 0.0279) + bullpen x0.8418 at 0.362 share (log5 0.0144 vs pen 0.0256) = x0.8897 \| starter alone would have been -0.005
Carson Kelly	C	Hitswhole staff	0.755 → 0.702	-0.053	0.2169	0.2240n=419 Average	0.2015n=757 Good	0.2083	+0.027	-0.057	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9297 at 0.638 share (log5 0.2083 vs his 0.2015) + bullpen x0.9297 at 0.362 share (log5 0.2083 vs pen 0.2015) = x0.9297 \| starter alone would have been -0.053
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.627 → 0.668	+0.041	0.2212	0.1684n=419 Good	0.2111n=757 Average	0.1602	-0.197	-0.038	+0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.9514 at 0.638 share (log5 0.1602 vs his 0.2111) + bullpen x1.2654 at 0.362 share (log5 0.2131 vs pen 0.2753) = x1.0651 \| starter alone would have been -0.030
		Walkswhole staff	0.370 → 0.384	+0.013	0.0889	0.0922n=419 Average	0.0919n=757 Average	0.0952	+0.012	+0.011	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0329 at 0.638 share (log5 0.0952 vs his 0.0919) + bullpen x1.039 at 0.362 share (log5 0.0958 vs pen 0.0924) = x1.0351 \| starter alone would have been +0.012
		Home runswhole staff	0.093 → 0.083	-0.010	0.0304	0.0264n=419 Average	0.0279n=757 Average	0.0242	-0.015	-0.009	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9176 at 0.638 share (log5 0.0242 vs his 0.0279) + bullpen x0.843 at 0.362 share (log5 0.0222 vs pen 0.0256) = x0.8906 \| starter alone would have been -0.008
Dansby Swanson	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.664 → 0.616	-0.048	0.2169	0.2007n=474 Poor	0.2015n=757 Good	0.1862	-0.059	-0.056	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9277 at 0.638 share (log5 0.1862 vs his 0.2015) + bullpen x0.9278 at 0.362 share (log5 0.1862 vs pen 0.2015) = x0.9277 \| starter alone would have been -0.048
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.825 → 0.874	+0.048	0.2212	0.2291n=474 Average	0.2111n=757 Average	0.2188	+0.029	-0.037	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9548 at 0.638 share (log5 0.2188 vs his 0.2111) + bullpen x1.2414 at 0.362 share (log5 0.2845 vs pen 0.2753) = x1.0586 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Walkswhole staff	0.405 → 0.419	+0.014	0.0889	0.1038n=474 Good	0.0919n=757 Average	0.1072	+0.054	+0.011	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0325 at 0.638 share (log5 0.1072 vs his 0.0919) + bullpen x1.0385 at 0.362 share (log5 0.1078 vs pen 0.0924) = x1.0347 \| starter alone would have been +0.013
		Home runswhole staff	0.117 → 0.104	-0.013	0.0304	0.0326n=474 Average	0.0279n=757 Average	0.0299	+0.008	-0.009	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9181 at 0.638 share (log5 0.0299 vs his 0.0279) + bullpen x0.8439 at 0.362 share (log5 0.0275 vs pen 0.0256) = x0.8912 \| starter alone would have been -0.010
STARTER Matthew Boyd25.4406 BF	Starter	Hits	5.317 → 5.397	+0.081	0.2169	0.2184n=520 Average	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2217	+0.038	+0.084	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	3.895 → 3.754	-0.141	0.2212	0.1895n=520 Below average	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1826	-0.806	-0.196	+0.021 ok
		Walks	2.124 → 2.230	+0.106	0.0889	0.0782n=520 Good	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0822	-0.272	+0.112	-0.012 ok
		Home runs	0.298 → 0.315	+0.017	0.0304	0.0296n=520 Average	0.03217/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0313	-0.021	+0.045	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Aaron Civale1.6928 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.404 → 0.410	+0.006	0.2169	0.2387n=480 Poor	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2422	+0.037	+0.006	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.320 → 0.308	-0.012	0.2212	0.1888n=480 Below average	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1819	-0.055	-0.013	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.130 → 0.137	+0.006	0.0889	0.0769n=480 Good	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0807	-0.020	+0.007	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.058 → 0.061	+0.003	0.0304	0.0341n=480 Below average	0.03217/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0360	+0.006	+0.003	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Ryan Rolison1.3923 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.297 → 0.301	+0.004	0.2169	0.2132n=249 Average	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2164	-0.005	+0.005	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.308 → 0.297	-0.011	0.2212	0.2210n=249 Average	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2133	-0.000	-0.011	0 ok
		Walks	0.140 → 0.147	+0.007	0.0889	0.1009n=249 Below average	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1058	+0.017	+0.006	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.039 → 0.042	+0.002	0.0304	0.0281n=249 Average	0.03217/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0298	-0.003	+0.003	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Colin Rea1.2005 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.271 → 0.275	+0.004	0.2169	0.2256n=587 Below average	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2290	+0.011	+0.004	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.214 → 0.206	-0.008	0.2212	0.1780n=587 Below average	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1714	-0.052	-0.009	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.098 → 0.103	+0.005	0.0889	0.0819n=587 Average	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0860	-0.008	+0.005	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.040 → 0.043	+0.002	0.0304	0.0334n=587 Below average	0.03217/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0354	+0.004	+0.002	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Caleb Thielbar1.1462 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.253 → 0.256	+0.004	0.2169	0.2204n=204 Average	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2237	+0.004	+0.004	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.305 → 0.295	-0.010	0.2212	0.2665n=204 Good	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2577	+0.052	-0.009	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.098 → 0.103	+0.005	0.0889	0.0858n=204 Average	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0900	-0.004	+0.005	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.043 → 0.046	+0.003	0.0304	0.0378n=204 Poor	0.03217/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0399	+0.009	+0.002	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Daniel Palencia1.1462 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.590 → 0.599	+0.009	0.2169	0.2129n=123 Average	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2161	-0.005	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.902 → 0.871	-0.031	0.2212	0.2349n=123 Average	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2269	+0.016	-0.009	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.396 → 0.415	+0.020	0.0889	0.0891n=123 Average	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0936	+0.000	+0.005	0 ok
		Home runs	0.113 → 0.120	+0.007	0.0304	0.0308n=123 Average	0.03217/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0326	+0.001	+0.002	0 ok
RELIEVER Jacob Webb1.1197 BF	Closer	Hits	0.852 → 0.865	+0.013	0.2169	0.2090n=279 Average	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2122	-0.009	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.010 → 0.976	-0.034	0.2212	0.2526n=279 Good	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2442	+0.035	-0.009	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.483 → 0.507	+0.024	0.0889	0.0871n=279 Average	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0914	-0.002	+0.005	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.172 → 0.182	+0.010	0.0304	0.0311n=279 Average	0.03217/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0329	+0.001	+0.002	0 ok
RELIEVER Ryan Zeferjahn1.0919 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.206 → 0.209	+0.003	0.2169	0.1889n=303 Very good	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1919	-0.030	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.318 → 0.308	-0.010	0.2212	0.2916n=303 Very good	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2823	+0.077	-0.008	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.126 → 0.132	+0.006	0.0889	0.1151n=303 Poor	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1206	+0.029	+0.005	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.030 → 0.032	+0.002	0.0304	0.0274n=303 Average	0.03217/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0290	-0.003	+0.002	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Javier Assad0.7915 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.170 → 0.172	+0.003	0.2169	0.2147n=357 Average	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2180	-0.002	+0.003	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.137 → 0.132	-0.005	0.2212	0.1732n=357 Poor	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1669	-0.038	-0.006	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.060 → 0.063	+0.003	0.0889	0.0758n=357 Good	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0796	-0.010	+0.004	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.027 → 0.029	+0.002	0.0304	0.0343n=357 Below average	0.03217/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0363	+0.003	+0.001	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Trent Thornton0.7372 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.159 → 0.161	+0.002	0.2169	0.2156n=192 Average	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2188	-0.001	+0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.129 → 0.124	-0.005	0.2212	0.1754n=192 Below average	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1689	-0.034	-0.006	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.063 → 0.066	+0.003	0.0889	0.0859n=192 Average	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0901	-0.002	+0.003	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.025 → 0.026	+0.001	0.0304	0.0338n=192 Below average	0.03217/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0357	+0.003	+0.001	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Edward Cabrera0.6552 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.149 → 0.151	+0.002	0.2169	0.2279n=350 Below average	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2313	+0.007	+0.002	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.135 → 0.130	-0.005	0.2212	0.2063n=350 Average	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1990	-0.010	-0.005	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.065 → 0.068	+0.003	0.0889	0.0985n=350 Average	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1033	+0.006	+0.003	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.024 → 0.026	+0.001	0.0304	0.0371n=350 Poor	0.03217/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0393	+0.004	+0.001	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Braxton Garrett0.6552 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.142 → 0.144	+0.002	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2202	0	+0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.145 → 0.140	-0.005	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2135	0	-0.005	0 ok
		Walks	0.058 → 0.061	+0.003	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0933	0	+0.003	0 ok
		Home runs	0.020 → 0.021	+0.001	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03217/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0321	0	+0.001	0 ok
RELIEVER Tyler Ferguson0.3004 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.065 → 0.066	+0.001	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2202	0	+0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.067 → 0.064	-0.002	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2135	0	-0.002	0 ok
		Walks	0.027 → 0.028	+0.001	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0933	0	+0.001	0 ok
		Home runs	0.009 → 0.010	+0.001	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03217/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0321	0	+0.001	0 ok
RELIEVER Gavin Hollowell0.1363 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.030 → 0.030	+0.000	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22027/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2202	0	+0.000	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.030 → 0.029	-0.001	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21357/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2135	0	-0.001	0 ok
		Walks	0.012 → 0.013	+0.001	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09337/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0933	0	+0.001	0 ok
		Home runs	0.004 → 0.004	+0.000	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03217/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0321	0	+0.000	0 ok

SD against Jason Adam (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to SD hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 25.4406 of 37.506 projected batters (67.8%) and the 2 projected relievers for the remaining 32.2%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Samad Taylor	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.923 → 0.928	+0.005	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2184n=520 Average	0.2184	0	+0.006	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0069 at 0.678 share (log5 0.2184 vs his 0.2184) + bullpen x1.0026 at 0.322 share (log5 0.2174 vs pen 0.2174) = x1.0055 \| starter alone would have been +0.006
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.914 → 0.824	-0.090	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1895n=520 Below average	0.1895	0	-0.128	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8567 at 0.678 share (log5 0.1895 vs his 0.1895) + bullpen x0.9966 at 0.322 share (log5 0.2205 vs pen 0.2205) = x0.9017 \| starter alone would have been -0.131
		Walkswhole staff	0.419 → 0.386	-0.034	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0782n=520 Good	0.0782	0	-0.043	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8799 at 0.678 share (log5 0.0782 vs his 0.0782) + bullpen x1.0043 at 0.322 share (log5 0.0893 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.9199 \| starter alone would have been -0.050
		Home runswhole staff	0.086 → 0.086	+0.000	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0296n=520 Average	0.0296	0	-0.003	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9727 at 0.678 share (log5 0.0296 vs his 0.0296) + bullpen x1.0637 at 0.322 share (log5 0.0323 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.002 \| starter alone would have been -0.002
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	Hitswhole staff	1.014 → 1.020	+0.005	0.2169	0.2416n=704 Very good	0.2184n=520 Average	0.2433	+0.108	+0.007	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0067 at 0.678 share (log5 0.2433 vs his 0.2184) + bullpen x1.0026 at 0.322 share (log5 0.2422 vs pen 0.2174) = x1.0054 \| starter alone would have been +0.007
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.740 → 0.664	-0.075	0.2212	0.1870n=704 Good	0.1895n=520 Below average	0.1592	-0.150	-0.139	+0.017 ok
		split	starter x0.8513 at 0.678 share (log5 0.1592 vs his 0.1895) + bullpen x0.9965 at 0.322 share (log5 0.1864 vs pen 0.2205) = x0.898 \| starter alone would have been -0.110
		Walkswhole staff	0.417 → 0.384	-0.033	0.0889	0.0906n=704 Average	0.0782n=520 Good	0.0798	+0.007	-0.047	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.88 at 0.678 share (log5 0.0798 vs his 0.0782) + bullpen x1.0043 at 0.322 share (log5 0.0910 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.92 \| starter alone would have been -0.050
		Home runswhole staff	0.157 → 0.157	+0.000	0.0304	0.0341n=704 Average	0.0296n=520 Average	0.0332	+0.016	-0.004	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9728 at 0.678 share (log5 0.0332 vs his 0.0296) + bullpen x1.0634 at 0.322 share (log5 0.0363 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.0019 \| starter alone would have been -0.004
Ty France	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.994 → 0.999	+0.005	0.2169	0.2398n=500 Very good	0.2184n=520 Average	0.2414	+0.094	+0.006	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0067 at 0.678 share (log5 0.2414 vs his 0.2184) + bullpen x1.0026 at 0.322 share (log5 0.2404 vs pen 0.2174) = x1.0054 \| starter alone would have been +0.007
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.796 → 0.718	-0.079	0.2212	0.2165n=500 Average	0.1895n=520 Below average	0.1853	-0.019	-0.130	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8559 at 0.678 share (log5 0.1853 vs his 0.1895) + bullpen x0.9966 at 0.322 share (log5 0.2157 vs pen 0.2205) = x0.9012 \| starter alone would have been -0.115
		Walkswhole staff	0.345 → 0.317	-0.028	0.0889	0.0769n=500 Below average	0.0782n=520 Good	0.0675	-0.050	-0.044	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.8785 at 0.678 share (log5 0.0675 vs his 0.0782) + bullpen x1.0044 at 0.322 share (log5 0.0772 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.919 \| starter alone would have been -0.042
		Home runswhole staff	0.145 → 0.145	+0.000	0.0304	0.0380n=500 Good	0.0296n=520 Average	0.0370	+0.031	-0.003	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9729 at 0.678 share (log5 0.0370 vs his 0.0296) + bullpen x1.0632 at 0.322 share (log5 0.0404 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.0019 \| starter alone would have been -0.004
Manny Machado	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.915 → 0.920	+0.005	0.2169	0.2000n=677 Poor	0.2184n=520 Average	0.2014	-0.073	+0.006	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0071 at 0.678 share (log5 0.2014 vs his 0.2184) + bullpen x1.0027 at 0.322 share (log5 0.2006 vs pen 0.2174) = x1.0057 \| starter alone would have been +0.006
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.799 → 0.720	-0.079	0.2212	0.2133n=677 Average	0.1895n=520 Below average	0.1824	-0.034	-0.137	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.8554 at 0.678 share (log5 0.1824 vs his 0.1895) + bullpen x0.9966 at 0.322 share (log5 0.2125 vs pen 0.2205) = x0.9008 \| starter alone would have been -0.116
		Walkswhole staff	0.495 → 0.456	-0.039	0.0889	0.1088n=677 Good	0.0782n=520 Good	0.0960	+0.086	-0.046	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.8822 at 0.678 share (log5 0.0960 vs his 0.0782) + bullpen x1.0042 at 0.322 share (log5 0.1092 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.9214 \| starter alone would have been -0.058
		Home runswhole staff	0.169 → 0.169	+0.000	0.0304	0.0404n=677 Good	0.0296n=520 Average	0.0393	+0.043	-0.004	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.973 at 0.678 share (log5 0.0393 vs his 0.0296) + bullpen x1.063 at 0.322 share (log5 0.0429 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.002 \| starter alone would have been -0.005
Jackson Merrill	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.960 → 0.965	+0.005	0.2169	0.2277n=664 Good	0.2184n=520 Average	0.2293	+0.044	+0.006	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0069 at 0.678 share (log5 0.2293 vs his 0.2184) + bullpen x1.0026 at 0.322 share (log5 0.2283 vs pen 0.2174) = x1.0055 \| starter alone would have been +0.007
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.964 → 0.871	-0.093	0.2212	0.2396n=664 Average	0.1895n=520 Below average	0.2060	+0.075	-0.129	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.8596 at 0.678 share (log5 0.2060 vs his 0.1895) + bullpen x0.9967 at 0.322 share (log5 0.2388 vs pen 0.2205) = x0.9037 \| starter alone would have been -0.135
		Walkswhole staff	0.261 → 0.240	-0.021	0.0889	0.0659n=664 Below average	0.0782n=520 Good	0.0578	-0.093	-0.043	+0.011 ok
		split	starter x0.8772 at 0.678 share (log5 0.0578 vs his 0.0782) + bullpen x1.0045 at 0.322 share (log5 0.0662 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.9182 \| starter alone would have been -0.032
		Home runswhole staff	0.136 → 0.137	+0.000	0.0304	0.0367n=664 Good	0.0296n=520 Average	0.0357	+0.025	-0.003	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9729 at 0.678 share (log5 0.0357 vs his 0.0296) + bullpen x1.0633 at 0.322 share (log5 0.0390 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.002 \| starter alone would have been -0.004
Austin Hays	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.867 → 0.872	+0.005	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2184n=520 Average	0.2184	0	+0.005	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0069 at 0.678 share (log5 0.2184 vs his 0.2184) + bullpen x1.0026 at 0.322 share (log5 0.2174 vs pen 0.2174) = x1.0055 \| starter alone would have been +0.006
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.826 → 0.745	-0.081	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1895n=520 Below average	0.1895	0	-0.115	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8567 at 0.678 share (log5 0.1895 vs his 0.1895) + bullpen x0.9966 at 0.322 share (log5 0.2205 vs pen 0.2205) = x0.9017 \| starter alone would have been -0.118
		Walkswhole staff	0.229 → 0.211	-0.018	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0782n=520 Good	0.0782	0	-0.039	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8799 at 0.678 share (log5 0.0782 vs his 0.0782) + bullpen x1.0043 at 0.322 share (log5 0.0893 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.9199 \| starter alone would have been -0.028
		Home runswhole staff	0.106 → 0.106	+0.000	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0296n=520 Average	0.0296	0	-0.003	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9727 at 0.678 share (log5 0.0296 vs his 0.0296) + bullpen x1.0637 at 0.322 share (log5 0.0323 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.002 \| starter alone would have been -0.003
Jake Cronenworth	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.789 → 0.794	+0.004	0.2169	0.2086n=425 Below average	0.2184n=520 Average	0.2100	-0.031	+0.006	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.007 at 0.678 share (log5 0.2100 vs his 0.2184) + bullpen x1.0027 at 0.322 share (log5 0.2091 vs pen 0.2174) = x1.0056 \| starter alone would have been +0.005
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.857 → 0.774	-0.084	0.2212	0.2275n=425 Average	0.1895n=520 Below average	0.1951	+0.024	-0.119	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8577 at 0.678 share (log5 0.1951 vs his 0.1895) + bullpen x0.9967 at 0.322 share (log5 0.2268 vs pen 0.2205) = x0.9024 \| starter alone would have been -0.122
		Walkswhole staff	0.320 → 0.294	-0.026	0.0889	0.0893n=425 Average	0.0782n=520 Good	0.0786	+0.001	-0.040	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.8799 at 0.678 share (log5 0.0786 vs his 0.0782) + bullpen x1.0043 at 0.322 share (log5 0.0897 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.9199 \| starter alone would have been -0.038
		Home runswhole staff	0.077 → 0.078	+0.000	0.0304	0.0218n=425 Below average	0.0296n=520 Average	0.0212	-0.032	-0.003	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9725 at 0.678 share (log5 0.0212 vs his 0.0296) + bullpen x1.0643 at 0.322 share (log5 0.0232 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.002 \| starter alone would have been -0.002
Xander Bogaerts	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.769 → 0.773	+0.004	0.2169	0.2059n=606 Below average	0.2184n=520 Average	0.2074	-0.042	+0.006	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.007 at 0.678 share (log5 0.2074 vs his 0.2184) + bullpen x1.0027 at 0.322 share (log5 0.2065 vs pen 0.2174) = x1.0056 \| starter alone would have been +0.005
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.606 → 0.544	-0.062	0.2212	0.1829n=606 Good	0.1895n=520 Below average	0.1556	-0.148	-0.123	+0.017 ok
		split	starter x0.8507 at 0.678 share (log5 0.1556 vs his 0.1895) + bullpen x0.9965 at 0.322 share (log5 0.1823 vs pen 0.2205) = x0.8976 \| starter alone would have been -0.090
		Walkswhole staff	0.485 → 0.448	-0.038	0.0889	0.1208n=606 Very good	0.0782n=520 Good	0.1067	+0.123	-0.041	-0.013 ok
		split	starter x0.8836 at 0.678 share (log5 0.1067 vs his 0.0782) + bullpen x1.0042 at 0.322 share (log5 0.1213 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.9224 \| starter alone would have been -0.057
		Home runswhole staff	0.094 → 0.094	+0.000	0.0304	0.0242n=606 Below average	0.0296n=520 Average	0.0235	-0.024	-0.003	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9725 at 0.678 share (log5 0.0235 vs his 0.0296) + bullpen x1.0641 at 0.322 share (log5 0.0257 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.002 \| starter alone would have been -0.003
Luis Campusano	C	Hitswhole staff	0.815 → 0.820	+0.004	0.2169	0.2215n=248 Average	0.2184n=520 Average	0.2231	+0.018	+0.006	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0069 at 0.678 share (log5 0.2231 vs his 0.2184) + bullpen x1.0026 at 0.322 share (log5 0.2221 vs pen 0.2174) = x1.0055 \| starter alone would have been +0.006
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.745 → 0.671	-0.074	0.2212	0.2149n=248 Average	0.1895n=520 Below average	0.1839	-0.024	-0.122	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.8557 at 0.678 share (log5 0.1839 vs his 0.1895) + bullpen x0.9966 at 0.322 share (log5 0.2142 vs pen 0.2205) = x0.901 \| starter alone would have been -0.107
		Walkswhole staff	0.437 → 0.403	-0.034	0.0889	0.1106n=248 Good	0.0782n=520 Good	0.0976	+0.083	-0.041	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.8824 at 0.678 share (log5 0.0976 vs his 0.0782) + bullpen x1.0042 at 0.322 share (log5 0.1110 vs pen 0.0893) = x0.9216 \| starter alone would have been -0.051
		Home runswhole staff	0.115 → 0.115	+0.000	0.0304	0.0313n=248 Average	0.0296n=520 Average	0.0304	+0.004	-0.003	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9727 at 0.678 share (log5 0.0304 vs his 0.0296) + bullpen x1.0636 at 0.322 share (log5 0.0333 vs pen 0.0323) = x1.0019 \| starter alone would have been -0.003
STARTER Michael King24.2508 BF	Starter	Hits	5.130 → 5.201	+0.071	0.2169	0.2015n=757 Good	0.21989/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2043	-0.373	+0.071	-0.004 ok
		Strikeouts	4.689 → 4.361	-0.327	0.2212	0.2111n=757 Average	0.20599/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1964	-0.245	-0.370	+0.013 ok
		Walks	2.174 → 2.527	+0.353	0.0889	0.0919n=757 Average	0.10349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1068	+0.071	+0.351	+0.010 ok
		Home runs	0.500 → 0.547	+0.047	0.0304	0.0279n=757 Average	0.03329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0305	-0.060	+0.069	-0.005 ok
RELIEVER Mason Miller2.5931 BF	Closer	Hits	0.645 → 0.655	+0.009	0.2169	0.1780n=272 Very good	0.21989/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1806	-0.101	+0.008	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.798 → 1.703	-0.095	0.2212	0.4166n=272 Very good	0.20599/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3947	+0.507	-0.040	-0.017 ok
		Walks	0.438 → 0.509	+0.071	0.0889	0.0931n=272 Average	0.10349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1082	+0.011	+0.037	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.078 → 0.085	+0.007	0.0304	0.0231n=272 Very good	0.03329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0252	-0.019	+0.007	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER Adrian Morejon2.465 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.737 → 0.747	+0.010	0.2169	0.1993n=352 Good	0.21989/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2021	-0.043	+0.007	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.297 → 1.215	-0.082	0.2212	0.2886n=352 Very good	0.20599/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2703	+0.166	-0.038	-0.007 ok
		Walks	0.474 → 0.552	+0.078	0.0889	0.0824n=352 Average	0.10349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0960	-0.016	+0.036	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.039 → 0.043	+0.004	0.0304	0.0220n=352 Very good	0.03329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0241	-0.021	+0.007	-0.002 ok
RELIEVER David Morgan2.3383 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.517 → 0.524	+0.007	0.2169	0.2210n=162 Average	0.21989/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2239	+0.010	+0.007	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.548 → 0.511	-0.037	0.2212	0.2343n=162 Average	0.20599/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2184	+0.030	-0.036	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.264 → 0.305	+0.042	0.0889	0.1127n=162 Below average	0.10349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1305	+0.056	+0.034	+0.008 ok
		Home runs	0.060 → 0.066	+0.006	0.0304	0.0256n=162 Good	0.03329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0280	-0.011	+0.007	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Bradgley Rodriguez2.3383 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	1.004 → 1.018	+0.014	0.2169	0.2063n=301 Good	0.21989/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2092	-0.025	+0.007	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.372 → 1.281	-0.090	0.2212	0.2590n=301 Good	0.20599/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2420	+0.088	-0.036	-0.004 ok
		Walks	0.384 → 0.447	+0.064	0.0889	0.0742n=301 Good	0.10349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0865	-0.035	+0.034	-0.005 ok
		Home runs	0.110 → 0.120	+0.010	0.0304	0.0262n=301 Good	0.03329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0286	-0.010	+0.007	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Yuki Matsui2.1249 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.387 → 0.392	+0.005	0.2169	0.1819n=260 Very good	0.21989/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1845	-0.074	+0.006	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.535 → 0.500	-0.036	0.2212	0.2520n=260 Good	0.20599/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2353	+0.066	-0.032	-0.003 ok
		Walks	0.255 → 0.294	+0.040	0.0889	0.1198n=260 Poor	0.10349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1385	+0.066	+0.031	+0.009 ok
		Home runs	0.062 → 0.068	+0.006	0.0304	0.0291n=260 Average	0.03329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0318	-0.003	+0.006	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Randy Vásquez1.4446 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.336 → 0.340	+0.004	0.2169	0.2324n=587 Below average	0.21989/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2355	+0.022	+0.004	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.227 → 0.210	-0.017	0.2212	0.1570n=587 Poor	0.20599/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1453	-0.093	-0.022	+0.005 ok
		Walks	0.099 → 0.116	+0.017	0.0889	0.0685n=587 Very good	0.10349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0800	-0.029	+0.021	-0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.041 → 0.045	+0.004	0.0304	0.0286n=587 Average	0.03329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0313	-0.003	+0.004	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Jason Adam0.4682 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.101 → 0.102	+0.001	0.2169	0.2150n=142 Average	0.21989/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2180	-0.001	+0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.084 → 0.078	-0.006	0.2212	0.1789n=142 Below average	0.20599/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1659	-0.020	-0.007	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.037 → 0.044	+0.006	0.0889	0.0802n=142 Average	0.10349/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0933	-0.004	+0.007	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.015 → 0.016	+0.001	0.0304	0.0316n=142 Average	0.03329/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0345	+0.001	+0.001	0 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Matthew Boyd	Starter	25.4	6.0	6.000	9 / 5.317	7 / 3.895	1 / 2.124	5 / 2.501	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.0	1.0	1.000	0 / 0.590	1 / 0.902	0 / 0.396	0 / 0.281	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Jacob Webb	Closer	4.3	1.0	1.000	0 / 0.852	2 / 1.010	1 / 0.483	0 / 0.373	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Michael King	Starter	24.3	5.2	5.649	5 / 5.130	5 / 4.689	2 / 2.174	3 / 2.024	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	5.4	1.1	1.329	0 / 1.004	0 / 1.372	0 / 0.384	0 / 0.243	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	4.2	1.0	0.997	2 / 0.737	0 / 1.297	1 / 0.474	1 / 0.303	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Mason Miller	Closer	4.1	1.0	0.997	1 / 0.645	1 / 1.798	0 / 0.438	0 / 0.359	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity160 checks	PASS	160 of 160 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 3
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	24 outs recorded, 24 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 6.0
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Matthew Boyd projected 25.4 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band2 checks	PASS	2 of 2 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 5.649
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Michael King projected 24.3 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

20260929_CHW@HOU — published 6-5, 173 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20260929_CHW@HOU__20260929T213829Z.json, phase post_start_rerun, generated 2026-09-29T21:38:29, first pitch 2026-09-29T21:00:00.
Published 6 - 5 with p(home) 0.470000. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; 0 of 3 draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	5.177399116390809 - 3.2403201354327757	-	-	-	-	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	5 - 3	-	-	-	-	no	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	6 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	6 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	away +0.1324; home -0.3254 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
5. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	6 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
6. `capped_target`	6 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
7. `simulation_result`	6 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

No KPI layer recorded.

Per-player metric movement

CHW against Grant Taylor (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CHW hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 17.475 of 37.119 projected batters (47.1%) and the 4 projected relievers for the remaining 52.9%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Sam Antonacci	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.877 → 0.832	-0.044	0.2169	0.2300n=553 Good	0.2011n=401 Good	0.2136	+0.056	-0.067	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9284 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2136 vs his 0.2011) + bullpen x0.9677 at 0.529 share (log5 0.2226 vs pen 0.2098) = x0.9492 \| starter alone would have been -0.063
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.717 → 0.756	+0.039	0.2212	0.1525n=553 Good	0.2322n=401 Average	0.1608	-0.291	+0.047	-0.011 ok
		split	starter x1.0544 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1608 vs his 0.2322) + bullpen x1.0532 at 0.529 share (log5 0.1606 vs pen 0.2320) = x1.0538 \| starter alone would have been +0.039
		Walkswhole staff	0.410 → 0.458	+0.048	0.0889	0.0797n=553 Average	0.1003n=401 Below average	0.0900	-0.039	+0.048	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.1291 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0900 vs his 0.1003) + bullpen x1.1083 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0884 vs pen 0.0984) = x1.1181 \| starter alone would have been +0.053
		Home runswhole staff	0.095 → 0.097	+0.002	0.0304	0.0196n=553 Poor	0.0313n=401 Average	0.0202	-0.046	+0.004	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.032 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0202 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x1.017 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0199 vs pen 0.0309) = x1.0241 \| starter alone would have been +0.003
Munetaka Murakami	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.730 → 0.691	-0.039	0.2169	0.1915n=544 Poor	0.2011n=401 Good	0.1771	-0.115	-0.071	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.9251 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1771 vs his 0.2011) + bullpen x0.9662 at 0.529 share (log5 0.1850 vs pen 0.2098) = x0.9469 \| starter alone would have been -0.055
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.562 → 1.626	+0.064	0.2212	0.3438n=544 Poor	0.2322n=401 Average	0.3581	+0.555	+0.050	+0.015 ok
		split	starter x1.0416 at 0.471 share (log5 0.3581 vs his 0.2322) + bullpen x1.0407 at 0.529 share (log5 0.3578 vs pen 0.2320) = x1.0411 \| starter alone would have been +0.065
		Walkswhole staff	0.770 → 0.853	+0.083	0.0889	0.1532n=544 Very good	0.1003n=401 Below average	0.1712	+0.291	+0.051	+0.030 ok
		split	starter x1.1176 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1712 vs his 0.1003) + bullpen x1.0988 at 0.529 share (log5 0.1683 vs pen 0.0984) = x1.1077 \| starter alone would have been +0.090
		Home runswhole staff	0.252 → 0.257	+0.006	0.0304	0.0532n=544 Very good	0.0313n=401 Average	0.0549	+0.103	+0.004	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.0308 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0549 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x1.0164 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0541 vs pen 0.0309) = x1.0232 \| starter alone would have been +0.008
Kyle Teel	C	Hitswhole staff	0.747 → 0.709	-0.038	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2011n=401 Good	0.2011	0	-0.064	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9273 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2011 vs his 0.2011) + bullpen x0.9672 at 0.529 share (log5 0.2098 vs pen 0.2098) = x0.9484 \| starter alone would have been -0.054
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.396 → 1.465	+0.069	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2322n=401 Average	0.2322	0	+0.045	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0498 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2322 vs his 0.2322) + bullpen x1.0487 at 0.529 share (log5 0.2320 vs pen 0.2320) = x1.0492 \| starter alone would have been +0.070
		Walkswhole staff	0.503 → 0.562	+0.059	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1003n=401 Below average	0.1003	0	+0.046	0 ok
		split	starter x1.1277 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1003 vs his 0.1003) + bullpen x1.1071 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0984 vs pen 0.0984) = x1.1168 \| starter alone would have been +0.064
		Home runswhole staff	0.145 → 0.149	+0.004	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0313n=401 Average	0.0313	0	+0.004	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0316 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0313 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x1.0168 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0309 vs pen 0.0309) = x1.0238 \| starter alone would have been +0.005
Braden Montgomery	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.713 → 0.676	-0.037	0.2169	0.2100n=362 Below average	0.2011n=401 Good	0.1946	-0.026	-0.060	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9267 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1946 vs his 0.2011) + bullpen x0.9669 at 0.529 share (log5 0.2031 vs pen 0.2098) = x0.948 \| starter alone would have been -0.052
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.821 → 0.862	+0.042	0.2212	0.1991n=362 Average	0.2322n=401 Average	0.2093	-0.085	+0.042	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.0512 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2093 vs his 0.2322) + bullpen x1.0502 at 0.529 share (log5 0.2091 vs pen 0.2320) = x1.0507 \| starter alone would have been +0.042
		Walkswhole staff	0.455 → 0.507	+0.052	0.0889	0.1010n=362 Good	0.1003n=401 Below average	0.1137	+0.046	+0.043	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.1258 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1137 vs his 0.1003) + bullpen x1.1055 at 0.529 share (log5 0.1117 vs pen 0.0984) = x1.1151 \| starter alone would have been +0.057
		Home runswhole staff	0.095 → 0.097	+0.002	0.0304	0.0224n=362 Below average	0.0313n=401 Average	0.0231	-0.031	+0.004	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.0319 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0231 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x1.017 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0228 vs pen 0.0309) = x1.024 \| starter alone would have been +0.003
Tristan Peters	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.768 → 0.729	-0.039	0.2169	0.2266n=484 Good	0.2011n=401 Good	0.2104	+0.036	-0.059	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9281 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2104 vs his 0.2011) + bullpen x0.9676 at 0.529 share (log5 0.2193 vs pen 0.2098) = x0.949 \| starter alone would have been -0.055
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.773 → 0.813	+0.040	0.2212	0.1835n=484 Good	0.2322n=401 Average	0.1931	-0.140	+0.041	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.0523 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1931 vs his 0.2322) + bullpen x1.0512 at 0.529 share (log5 0.1929 vs pen 0.2320) = x1.0517 \| starter alone would have been +0.040
		Walkswhole staff	0.349 → 0.391	+0.041	0.0889	0.0789n=484 Average	0.1003n=401 Below average	0.0891	-0.037	+0.042	-0.004 ok
		split	starter x1.1293 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0891 vs his 0.1003) + bullpen x1.1084 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0875 vs pen 0.0984) = x1.1182 \| starter alone would have been +0.045
		Home runswhole staff	0.114 → 0.117	+0.003	0.0304	0.0268n=484 Average	0.0313n=401 Average	0.0276	-0.013	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0317 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0276 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x1.0169 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0272 vs pen 0.0309) = x1.0239 \| starter alone would have been +0.004
Miguel Vargas	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.804 → 0.763	-0.042	0.2169	0.2136n=695 Average	0.2011n=401 Good	0.1980	-0.015	-0.070	+0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.927 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1980 vs his 0.2011) + bullpen x0.9671 at 0.529 share (log5 0.2066 vs pen 0.2098) = x0.9482 \| starter alone would have been -0.059
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.858 → 0.903	+0.044	0.2212	0.1826n=695 Good	0.2322n=401 Average	0.1921	-0.171	+0.049	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x1.0524 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1921 vs his 0.2322) + bullpen x1.0513 at 0.529 share (log5 0.1919 vs pen 0.2320) = x1.0518 \| starter alone would have been +0.045
		Walkswhole staff	0.642 → 0.713	+0.071	0.0889	0.1346n=695 Very good	0.1003n=401 Below average	0.1508	+0.202	+0.050	+0.021 ok
		split	starter x1.1205 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1508 vs his 0.1003) + bullpen x1.1012 at 0.529 share (log5 0.1482 vs pen 0.0984) = x1.1103 \| starter alone would have been +0.077
		Home runswhole staff	0.201 → 0.205	+0.005	0.0304	0.0428n=695 Very good	0.0313n=401 Average	0.0441	+0.055	+0.004	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0312 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0441 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x1.0166 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0435 vs pen 0.0309) = x1.0235 \| starter alone would have been +0.006
Andrew Benintendi	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.709 → 0.673	-0.037	0.2169	0.2160n=460 Average	0.2011n=401 Good	0.2003	-0.003	-0.057	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9272 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2003 vs his 0.2011) + bullpen x0.9672 at 0.529 share (log5 0.2089 vs pen 0.2098) = x0.9484 \| starter alone would have been -0.052
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.942 → 0.988	+0.045	0.2212	0.2354n=460 Average	0.2322n=401 Average	0.2469	+0.052	+0.040	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0488 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2469 vs his 0.2322) + bullpen x1.0478 at 0.529 share (log5 0.2467 vs pen 0.2320) = x1.0483 \| starter alone would have been +0.046
		Walkswhole staff	0.371 → 0.414	+0.043	0.0889	0.0856n=460 Average	0.1003n=401 Below average	0.0966	-0.012	+0.041	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.1282 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0966 vs his 0.1003) + bullpen x1.1075 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0948 vs pen 0.0984) = x1.1172 \| starter alone would have been +0.048
		Home runswhole staff	0.130 → 0.133	+0.003	0.0304	0.0318n=460 Average	0.0313n=401 Average	0.0328	+0.005	+0.004	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0315 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0328 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x1.0168 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0323 vs pen 0.0309) = x1.0237 \| starter alone would have been +0.004
Chase Meidroth	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.780 → 0.741	-0.040	0.2169	0.2330n=635 Good	0.2011n=401 Good	0.2163	+0.060	-0.059	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9287 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2163 vs his 0.2011) + bullpen x0.9678 at 0.529 share (log5 0.2255 vs pen 0.2098) = x0.9494 \| starter alone would have been -0.056
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.928 → 0.974	+0.046	0.2212	0.2176n=635 Average	0.2322n=401 Average	0.2285	-0.013	+0.041	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x1.05 at 0.471 share (log5 0.2285 vs his 0.2322) + bullpen x1.049 at 0.529 share (log5 0.2283 vs pen 0.2320) = x1.0495 \| starter alone would have been +0.046
		Walkswhole staff	0.397 → 0.443	+0.046	0.0889	0.0936n=635 Average	0.1003n=401 Below average	0.1055	+0.018	+0.043	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.1269 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1055 vs his 0.1003) + bullpen x1.1065 at 0.529 share (log5 0.1036 vs pen 0.0984) = x1.1161 \| starter alone would have been +0.050
		Home runswhole staff	0.112 → 0.115	+0.003	0.0304	0.0267n=635 Average	0.0313n=401 Average	0.0276	-0.014	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x1.0317 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0276 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x1.0169 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0272 vs pen 0.0309) = x1.0239 \| starter alone would have been +0.004
Colson Montgomery	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.643 → 0.609	-0.034	0.2169	0.1929n=630 Poor	0.2011n=401 Good	0.1785	-0.088	-0.058	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.9252 at 0.471 share (log5 0.1785 vs his 0.2011) + bullpen x0.9662 at 0.529 share (log5 0.1864 vs pen 0.2098) = x0.9469 \| starter alone would have been -0.048
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.378 → 1.434	+0.057	0.2212	0.3459n=630 Poor	0.2322n=401 Average	0.3603	+0.458	+0.040	+0.012 ok
		split	starter x1.0415 at 0.471 share (log5 0.3603 vs his 0.2322) + bullpen x1.0406 at 0.529 share (log5 0.3600 vs pen 0.2320) = x1.041 \| starter alone would have been +0.057
		Walkswhole staff	0.377 → 0.422	+0.044	0.0889	0.0836n=630 Average	0.1003n=401 Below average	0.0943	-0.020	+0.042	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.1285 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0943 vs his 0.1003) + bullpen x1.1078 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0926 vs pen 0.0984) = x1.1175 \| starter alone would have been +0.049
		Home runswhole staff	0.181 → 0.185	+0.004	0.0304	0.0436n=630 Very good	0.0313n=401 Average	0.0450	+0.049	+0.004	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.0311 at 0.471 share (log5 0.0450 vs his 0.0313) + bullpen x1.0166 at 0.529 share (log5 0.0444 vs pen 0.0309) = x1.0234 \| starter alone would have been +0.006
STARTER Hagen Smith18.6072 BF	Starter	Hits	4.522 → 4.623	+0.101	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22178/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2217	0	+0.090	0 ok
		Strikeouts	7.580 → 7.302	-0.278	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21318/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2131	0	-0.151	0 ok
		Walks	0.000 → 0.000	0	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.08688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0868	0	-0.040	0 ok
		Home runs	0.000 → 0.000	0	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03668/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0366	0	+0.115	0 ok
RELIEVER Erick Fedde4.3617 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.983 → 1.004	+0.022	0.2169	0.2253n=606 Below average	0.22178/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2303	+0.037	+0.021	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.742 → 0.713	-0.029	0.2212	0.1701n=606 Poor	0.21318/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1635	-0.223	-0.035	+0.006 ok
		Walks	0.377 → 0.368	-0.009	0.0889	0.0865n=606 Average	0.08688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0843	-0.011	-0.009	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.151 → 0.182	+0.031	0.0304	0.0347n=606 Below average	0.03668/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0418	+0.019	+0.027	+0.004 ok
RELIEVER Sean Newcomb3.5134 BF	Setup Man	Hits	1.852 → 1.894	+0.042	0.2169	0.2048n=369 Good	0.22178/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2094	-0.043	+0.017	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.692 → 1.631	-0.062	0.2212	0.2265n=369 Average	0.21318/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2183	+0.019	-0.029	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.669 → 0.653	-0.016	0.0889	0.0912n=369 Average	0.08688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0890	+0.008	-0.008	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.036 → 0.044	+0.007	0.0304	0.0215n=369 Very good	0.03668/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0260	-0.031	+0.022	-0.006 ok
RELIEVER Bryan Hudson3.393 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	1.004 → 1.026	+0.022	0.2169	0.2287n=282 Below average	0.22178/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2338	+0.040	+0.017	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.896 → 0.863	-0.033	0.2212	0.2119n=282 Average	0.21318/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2040	-0.032	-0.028	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.272 → 0.265	-0.007	0.0889	0.0728n=282 Good	0.08688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0710	-0.055	-0.007	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.080 → 0.097	+0.016	0.0304	0.0255n=282 Good	0.03668/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0307	-0.017	+0.021	-0.003 ok
RELIEVER Davis Martin2.7873 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.642 → 0.656	+0.014	0.2169	0.2302n=617 Below average	0.22178/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2353	+0.037	+0.013	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.559 → 0.538	-0.021	0.2212	0.2004n=617 Below average	0.21318/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1929	-0.058	-0.023	+0.002 ok
		Walks	0.216 → 0.211	-0.005	0.0889	0.0775n=617 Good	0.08688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0756	-0.032	-0.006	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.072 → 0.087	+0.015	0.0304	0.0259n=617 Good	0.03668/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0312	-0.012	+0.017	-0.003 ok
RELIEVER Sean Burke2.7873 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.575 → 0.588	+0.013	0.2169	0.2062n=694 Good	0.22178/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2109	-0.030	+0.013	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.705 → 0.680	-0.025	0.2212	0.2528n=694 Good	0.21318/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2439	+0.088	-0.023	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.249 → 0.243	-0.006	0.0889	0.0893n=694 Average	0.08688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0871	+0.001	-0.006	0 ok
		Home runs	0.080 → 0.096	+0.016	0.0304	0.0286n=694 Average	0.03668/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0344	-0.005	+0.017	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Grant Taylor0.363 BF	Closer	Hits	1.098 → 1.123	+0.025	0.2169	0.1974n=333 Good	0.22178/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2019	-0.007	+0.002	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	2.353 → 2.275	-0.078	0.2212	0.2970n=333 Very good	0.21318/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2872	+0.028	-0.003	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.550 → 0.537	-0.013	0.0889	0.0897n=333 Average	0.08688/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0875	+0.000	-0.001	0 ok
		Home runs	0.098 → 0.118	+0.020	0.0304	0.0264n=333 Good	0.03668/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0318	-0.002	+0.002	-0.000 ok

HOU against Steven Okert (LHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to HOU hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 18.6072 of 35.813 projected batters (52.0%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 48.0%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Jose Altuve	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.821 → 0.825	+0.004	0.2169	0.2235n=573 Average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2235	+0.029	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.2235 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x1.0093 at 0.480 share (log5 0.2256 vs pen 0.2189) = x1.0045 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.101 → 1.075	-0.025	0.2212	0.2007n=573 Average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2007	-0.090	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.2007 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x0.952 at 0.480 share (log5 0.1911 vs pen 0.2109) = x0.9769 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.430 → 0.418	-0.012	0.0889	0.0745n=573 Below average	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0745	-0.063	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.0745 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9415 at 0.480 share (log5 0.0702 vs pen 0.0838) = x0.9719 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.142 → 0.136	-0.006	0.0304	0.0287n=573 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0287	-0.007	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.0287 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9086 at 0.480 share (log5 0.0261 vs pen 0.0276) = x0.9561 \| starter alone would have been 0
Jeremy Peña	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.915 → 0.919	+0.004	0.2169	0.2377n=483 Very good	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2377	+0.094	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.2377 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x1.0091 at 0.480 share (log5 0.2399 vs pen 0.2189) = x1.0044 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.375 → 1.345	-0.030	0.2212	0.2384n=483 Average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2384	+0.078	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.2384 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x0.9542 at 0.480 share (log5 0.2275 vs pen 0.2109) = x0.978 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.349 → 0.339	-0.010	0.0889	0.0575n=483 Poor	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0575	-0.142	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.0575 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9405 at 0.480 share (log5 0.0540 vs pen 0.0838) = x0.9714 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.211 → 0.202	-0.009	0.0304	0.0402n=483 Good	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0402	+0.044	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.0402 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9096 at 0.480 share (log5 0.0366 vs pen 0.0276) = x0.9566 \| starter alone would have been 0
Isaac Paredes	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.760 → 0.763	+0.003	0.2169	0.2198n=654 Average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2198	+0.012	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.2198 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x1.0094 at 0.480 share (log5 0.2218 vs pen 0.2189) = x1.0045 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.727 → 0.709	-0.018	0.2212	0.1406n=654 Very good	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1406	-0.346	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.1406 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x0.9486 at 0.480 share (log5 0.1333 vs pen 0.2109) = x0.9753 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.573 → 0.557	-0.016	0.0889	0.1055n=654 Good	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1055	+0.071	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.1055 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9434 at 0.480 share (log5 0.0996 vs pen 0.0838) = x0.9728 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.169 → 0.161	-0.007	0.0304	0.0360n=654 Good	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0360	+0.024	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.0360 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9093 at 0.480 share (log5 0.0327 vs pen 0.0276) = x0.9564 \| starter alone would have been 0
Lucas Spence	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.703 → 0.707	+0.003	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2169	0	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.2169 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x1.0094 at 0.480 share (log5 0.2189 vs pen 0.2189) = x1.0045 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.506 → 1.472	-0.034	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2212	0	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.2212 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x0.9532 at 0.480 share (log5 0.2109 vs pen 0.2109) = x0.9775 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.420 → 0.408	-0.012	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0889	0	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.0889 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9424 at 0.480 share (log5 0.0838 vs pen 0.0838) = x0.9723 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.155 → 0.148	-0.007	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0304	0	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.0304 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9088 at 0.480 share (log5 0.0276 vs pen 0.0276) = x0.9562 \| starter alone would have been 0
Yordan Alvarez	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.853 → 0.857	+0.004	0.2169	0.2411n=686 Very good	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2411	+0.107	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.2411 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x1.0091 at 0.480 share (log5 0.2432 vs pen 0.2189) = x1.0044 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.981 → 0.957	-0.023	0.2212	0.1753n=686 Good	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1753	-0.204	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.1753 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x0.9506 at 0.480 share (log5 0.1666 vs pen 0.2109) = x0.9763 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.706 → 0.688	-0.018	0.0889	0.1473n=686 Very good	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1473	+0.259	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.1473 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9459 at 0.480 share (log5 0.1393 vs pen 0.0838) = x0.974 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.239 → 0.229	-0.010	0.0304	0.0516n=686 Very good	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0516	+0.094	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.0516 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9106 at 0.480 share (log5 0.0470 vs pen 0.0276) = x0.9571 \| starter alone would have been 0
Yainer Diaz	C	Hitswhole staff	0.851 → 0.854	+0.004	0.2169	0.2405n=356 Very good	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2405	+0.096	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.2405 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x1.0091 at 0.480 share (log5 0.2427 vs pen 0.2189) = x1.0044 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.876 → 0.855	-0.021	0.2212	0.1675n=356 Good	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1675	-0.219	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.1675 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x0.9501 at 0.480 share (log5 0.1591 vs pen 0.2109) = x0.976 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.265 → 0.257	-0.008	0.0889	0.0476n=356 Poor	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0476	-0.169	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.0476 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9399 at 0.480 share (log5 0.0447 vs pen 0.0838) = x0.9711 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.171 → 0.163	-0.007	0.0304	0.0355n=356 Good	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0355	+0.021	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.0355 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9092 at 0.480 share (log5 0.0323 vs pen 0.0276) = x0.9564 \| starter alone would have been 0
Taylor Trammell	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.602 → 0.605	+0.003	0.2169	0.1981n=289 Poor	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.1981	-0.066	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.1981 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x1.0096 at 0.480 share (log5 0.2000 vs pen 0.2189) = x1.0046 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.456 → 1.427	-0.029	0.2212	0.3073n=289 Poor	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.3073	+0.303	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.3073 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x0.9582 at 0.480 share (log5 0.2944 vs pen 0.2109) = x0.9799 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.381 → 0.370	-0.010	0.0889	0.0970n=289 Average	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0970	+0.029	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.0970 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9429 at 0.480 share (log5 0.0915 vs pen 0.0838) = x0.9726 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.111 → 0.106	-0.005	0.0304	0.0290n=289 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0290	-0.005	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.0290 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9087 at 0.480 share (log5 0.0263 vs pen 0.0276) = x0.9561 \| starter alone would have been 0
Cam Smith	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.632 → 0.635	+0.003	0.2169	0.2008n=563 Poor	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2008	-0.060	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.2008 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x1.0096 at 0.480 share (log5 0.2027 vs pen 0.2189) = x1.0046 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.194 → 1.169	-0.026	0.2212	0.2579n=563 Below average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2579	+0.136	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.2579 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x0.9553 at 0.480 share (log5 0.2464 vs pen 0.2109) = x0.9785 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.381 → 0.370	-0.011	0.0889	0.0786n=563 Average	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0786	-0.038	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.0786 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.9418 at 0.480 share (log5 0.0740 vs pen 0.0838) = x0.972 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.147 → 0.141	-0.006	0.0304	0.0339n=563 Average	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0339	+0.013	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.0339 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9091 at 0.480 share (log5 0.0308 vs pen 0.0276) = x0.9563 \| starter alone would have been 0
Christian Walker	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.693 → 0.696	+0.003	0.2169	0.2079n=630 Below average	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2079	-0.035	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.2079 vs his 0.2169) + bullpen x1.0095 at 0.480 share (log5 0.2098 vs pen 0.2189) = x1.0046 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.127 → 1.102	-0.025	0.2212	0.2325n=630 Average	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2325	+0.044	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.2325 vs his 0.2212) + bullpen x0.9538 at 0.480 share (log5 0.2217 vs pen 0.2109) = x0.9778 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Walkswhole staff	0.423 → 0.411	-0.012	0.0889	0.0822n=630 Average	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0822	-0.026	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.0822 vs his 0.0889) + bullpen x0.942 at 0.480 share (log5 0.0775 vs pen 0.0838) = x0.9721 \| starter alone would have been 0
		Home runswhole staff	0.184 → 0.176	-0.008	0.0304	0.0414n=630 Good	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0414	+0.043	0	0 ok
		split	starter x1.0 at 0.520 share (log5 0.0414 vs his 0.0304) + bullpen x0.9097 at 0.480 share (log5 0.0377 vs pen 0.0276) = x0.9566 \| starter alone would have been 0
STARTER AJ Blubaugh17.475 BF	Starter	Hits	2.213 → 2.186	-0.027	0.2169	0.2011n=401 Good	0.21428/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1986	-0.276	-0.046	+0.003 ok
		Strikeouts	6.279 → 6.563	+0.284	0.2212	0.2322n=401 Average	0.23148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2427	+0.192	+0.178	+0.006 ok
		Walks	1.405 → 1.600	+0.195	0.0889	0.1003n=401 Below average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1142	+0.198	+0.219	+0.024 ok
		Home runs	0.872 → 0.958	+0.087	0.0304	0.0313n=401 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0345	+0.017	+0.053	+0.002 ok
RELIEVER Ethan Pecko2.3003 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.470 → 0.465	-0.006	0.2169	0.2045n=140 Good	0.21428/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2020	-0.028	-0.006	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.426 → 0.446	+0.021	0.2212	0.1850n=140 Below average	0.23148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1939	-0.083	+0.023	-0.003 ok
		Walks	0.216 → 0.247	+0.030	0.0889	0.0941n=140 Average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1073	+0.012	+0.029	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.073 → 0.080	+0.007	0.0304	0.0317n=140 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0348	+0.003	+0.007	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Bennett Sousa2.2571 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	1.118 → 1.105	-0.013	0.2169	0.2293n=141 Below average	0.21428/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2266	+0.028	-0.006	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.111 → 1.162	+0.051	0.2212	0.2249n=141 Average	0.23148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2351	+0.008	+0.023	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.489 → 0.556	+0.067	0.0889	0.1072n=141 Below average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1220	+0.041	+0.028	+0.005 ok
		Home runs	0.274 → 0.301	+0.027	0.0304	0.0316n=141 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0347	+0.003	+0.007	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Bryan Abreu2.2119 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	0.758 → 0.748	-0.009	0.2169	0.1906n=261 Very good	0.21428/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1882	-0.058	-0.006	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.204 → 1.255	+0.051	0.2212	0.2777n=261 Very good	0.23148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2895	+0.125	+0.022	+0.004 ok
		Walks	0.574 → 0.651	+0.077	0.0889	0.1266n=261 Poor	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1436	+0.083	+0.028	+0.010 ok
		Home runs	0.201 → 0.221	+0.020	0.0304	0.0319n=261 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0351	+0.003	+0.007	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Bryan King1.9015 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.441 → 0.436	-0.005	0.2169	0.2321n=278 Below average	0.21428/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2293	+0.029	-0.005	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.365 → 0.382	+0.017	0.2212	0.1919n=278 Below average	0.23148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2011	-0.056	+0.019	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.162 → 0.184	+0.023	0.0889	0.0850n=278 Average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0970	-0.007	+0.024	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.059 → 0.065	+0.006	0.0304	0.0312n=278 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0342	+0.001	+0.006	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Enyel De Los Santos1.8131 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.405 → 0.400	-0.005	0.2169	0.2233n=296 Average	0.21428/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2206	+0.012	-0.005	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.399 → 0.417	+0.018	0.2212	0.2199n=296 Average	0.23148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2301	-0.002	+0.018	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.132 → 0.151	+0.019	0.0889	0.0728n=296 Good	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0832	-0.029	+0.023	-0.004 ok
		Home runs	0.060 → 0.066	+0.006	0.0304	0.0331n=296 Below average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0364	+0.005	+0.005	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Tatsuya Imai1.7699 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.341 → 0.337	-0.004	0.2169	0.1927n=338 Very good	0.21428/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1903	-0.043	-0.005	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.486 → 0.506	+0.021	0.2212	0.2744n=338 Good	0.23148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2861	+0.094	+0.018	+0.003 ok
		Walks	0.232 → 0.263	+0.031	0.0889	0.1312n=338 Poor	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1487	+0.075	+0.022	+0.009 ok
		Home runs	0.051 → 0.056	+0.005	0.0304	0.0288n=338 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0316	-0.003	+0.005	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Josh Hader1.7699 BF	Closer	Hits	0.517 → 0.510	-0.007	0.2169	0.1796n=167 Very good	0.21428/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1773	-0.066	-0.005	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	1.033 → 1.076	+0.043	0.2212	0.2943n=167 Very good	0.23148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3065	+0.129	+0.018	+0.004 ok
		Walks	0.432 → 0.492	+0.061	0.0889	0.0894n=167 Average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1020	+0.001	+0.022	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.021 → 0.023	+0.002	0.0304	0.0237n=167 Very good	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0261	-0.012	+0.005	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Miguel Ullola1.5479 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.336 → 0.332	-0.004	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21428/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2142	0	-0.004	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.342 → 0.358	+0.016	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.23148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2314	0	+0.016	0 ok
		Walks	0.138 → 0.157	+0.019	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1014	0	+0.019	0 ok
		Home runs	0.047 → 0.052	+0.005	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0334	0	+0.005	0 ok
RELIEVER Ronel Blanco1.2395 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.266 → 0.263	-0.003	0.2169	0.2146n=143 Average	0.21428/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2119	-0.003	-0.003	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.260 → 0.272	+0.012	0.2212	0.2094n=143 Average	0.23148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2192	-0.015	+0.013	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.124 → 0.141	+0.017	0.0889	0.0998n=143 Below average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1137	+0.013	+0.015	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.047 → 0.052	+0.005	0.0304	0.0383n=143 Poor	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0421	+0.010	+0.004	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Logan VanWey1.1944 BF	Setup Man	Hits	1.232 → 1.217	-0.015	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21428/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2142	0	-0.003	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.905 → 0.947	+0.042	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.23148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2314	0	+0.012	0 ok
		Walks	0.132 → 0.150	+0.018	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1014	0	+0.015	0 ok
		Home runs	0.163 → 0.179	+0.016	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0334	0	+0.004	0 ok
RELIEVER Kai-Wei Teng0.7524 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.160 → 0.158	-0.002	0.2169	0.2131n=329 Average	0.21428/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2105	-0.003	-0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.167 → 0.174	+0.008	0.2212	0.2218n=329 Average	0.23148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2319	+0.000	+0.008	0 ok
		Walks	0.073 → 0.083	+0.010	0.0889	0.0966n=329 Average	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1101	+0.006	+0.009	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.023 → 0.025	+0.002	0.0304	0.0304n=329 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0334	0	+0.002	0 ok
RELIEVER Josh Hendrickson0.5304 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.115 → 0.114	-0.001	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21428/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2142	0	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.117 → 0.123	+0.005	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.23148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2314	0	+0.005	0 ok
		Walks	0.047 → 0.054	+0.007	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1014	0	+0.007	0 ok
		Home runs	0.016 → 0.018	+0.002	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0334	0	+0.002	0 ok
RELIEVER Steven Okert0.3536 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.069 → 0.068	-0.001	0.2169	0.1960n=261 Good	0.21428/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1935	-0.007	-0.001	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.089 → 0.093	+0.004	0.2212	0.2513n=261 Good	0.23148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2624	+0.011	+0.004	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.024 → 0.027	+0.003	0.0889	0.0669n=261 Very good	0.10148/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0766	-0.008	+0.004	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.010 → 0.011	+0.001	0.0304	0.0291n=261 Average	0.03348/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0320	-0.001	+0.001	0 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Hagen Smith	Starter	18.6	5.0	4.695	3 / 4.522	6 / 7.580	1 / 0.000	1 / 0.000	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Grant Taylor	Closer	6.7	1.1	1.677	0 / 1.098	2 / 2.353	1 / 0.550	3 / 0.334	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	8.6	1.1	2.012	1 / 1.852	0 / 1.692	0 / 0.669	1 / 0.823	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.3	1.1	1.006	0 / 1.004	1 / 0.896	0 / 0.272	0 / 0.319	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
AJ Blubaugh	Starter	17.5	5.0	4.619	2 / 2.213	4 / 6.279	0 / 1.405	0 / 0.715	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Logan VanWey	Setup Man	5.3	1.1	1.319	0 / 1.232	1 / 0.905	0 / 0.132	0 / 0.213	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.3	1.0	0.990	6 / 0.758	1 / 1.204	1 / 0.574	6 / 0.388	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Josh Hader	Closer	3.9	1.0	0.990	0 / 0.517	1 / 1.033	0 / 0.432	0 / 0.159	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Bennett Sousa	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4.6	0.2	0.990	0 / 1.118	0 / 1.111	0 / 0.489	0 / 0.498	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity156 checks	PASS	156 of 156 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 4.695
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Hagen Smith projected 18.6 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 5
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 4.619
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	AJ Blubaugh projected 17.5 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band4 checks	PASS	4 of 4 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

20260929_PHI@ATL — published 2-3, 178 checks, all pass

Artifact. 20260929_PHI@ATL__20260929T183800Z.json, phase post_start_rerun, generated 2026-09-29T18:38:00, first pitch 2026-09-29T18:00:00.
Published 2 - 3 with p(home) 0.505394. Simulation draw chosen on not recorded; 0 of 2 draws realized the target exactly.

Stage chain: every stage that touched the score

Stage	Score after	Δ away	Δ home	Cum. away	Cum. home	Changed target	Own adjustment and description
1. `historical_ml`	4.598908535356568 - 4.614426912949791	-	-	-	-	no	Base ML historical model prediction
2. `variance_applied`	5 - 5	-	-	-	-	no	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3. `enhanced_prediction`	2 - 3	-	-	-	-	no	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4. `embedded_savant_run_environment`	2 - 3	-	-	-	-	no	away -0.2542; home -0.2796 Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
5. `fundamental_edge_target_review`	2 - 3	-	-	-	-	no	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
6. `capped_target`	2 - 3	-	-	-	-	no	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
7. `simulation_result`	2 - 3	-	-	-	-	no	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

No KPI layer recorded.

Per-player metric movement

PHI against Grant Holman (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to PHI hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 24.933 of 37.119 projected batters (67.2%) and the 3 projected relievers for the remaining 32.8%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Bryce Harper	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.900 → 0.865	-0.035	0.2169	0.2220n=688 Average	0.2069n=628 Good	0.2119	+0.022	-0.043	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9543 at 0.672 share (log5 0.2119 vs his 0.2069) + bullpen x0.975 at 0.328 share (log5 0.2164 vs pen 0.2114) = x0.9611 \| starter alone would have been -0.041
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.273 → 1.591	+0.317	0.2212	0.2142n=688 Average	0.2947n=628 Very good	0.2862	-0.030	+0.314	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x1.3365 at 0.672 share (log5 0.2862 vs his 0.2947) + bullpen x1.07 at 0.328 share (log5 0.2291 vs pen 0.2365) = x1.249 \| starter alone would have been +0.428
		Walkswhole staff	0.428 → 0.321	-0.107	0.0889	0.1420n=688 Very good	0.0573n=628 Very good	0.0934	+0.227	-0.135	-0.072 ok
		split	starter x0.658 at 0.672 share (log5 0.0934 vs his 0.0573) + bullpen x0.9411 at 0.328 share (log5 0.1336 vs pen 0.0834) = x0.7509 \| starter alone would have been -0.146
		Home runswhole staff	0.156 → 0.123	-0.032	0.0304	0.0389n=688 Good	0.0219n=628 Very good	0.0281	+0.036	-0.036	-0.010 ok
		split	starter x0.7236 at 0.672 share (log5 0.0281 vs his 0.0219) + bullpen x0.935 at 0.328 share (log5 0.0364 vs pen 0.0284) = x0.793 \| starter alone would have been -0.043
Alec Bohm	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.909 → 0.873	-0.035	0.2169	0.2222n=624 Average	0.2069n=628 Good	0.2121	+0.021	-0.039	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9543 at 0.672 share (log5 0.2121 vs his 0.2069) + bullpen x0.975 at 0.328 share (log5 0.2166 vs pen 0.2114) = x0.9611 \| starter alone would have been -0.042
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.713 → 0.912	+0.199	0.2212	0.1453n=624 Very good	0.2947n=628 Very good	0.2001	-0.295	+0.286	-0.073 ok
		split	starter x1.3771 at 0.672 share (log5 0.2001 vs his 0.2947) + bullpen x1.0766 at 0.328 share (log5 0.1565 vs pen 0.2365) = x1.2784 \| starter alone would have been +0.269
		Walkswhole staff	0.250 → 0.184	-0.065	0.0889	0.0788n=624 Average	0.0573n=628 Very good	0.0506	-0.039	-0.123	+0.013 ok
		split	starter x0.6419 at 0.672 share (log5 0.0506 vs his 0.0573) + bullpen x0.937 at 0.328 share (log5 0.0739 vs pen 0.0834) = x0.7388 \| starter alone would have been -0.089
		Home runswhole staff	0.117 → 0.093	-0.025	0.0304	0.0259n=624 Average	0.0219n=628 Very good	0.0187	-0.017	-0.033	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.7209 at 0.672 share (log5 0.0187 vs his 0.0219) + bullpen x0.9341 at 0.328 share (log5 0.0242 vs pen 0.0284) = x0.7909 \| starter alone would have been -0.033
Bryan De La Cruz	LF	Hitswhole staff	0.765 → 0.735	-0.030	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2069n=628 Good	0.2069	0	-0.035	0 ok
		split	starter x0.954 at 0.672 share (log5 0.2069 vs his 0.2069) + bullpen x0.9748 at 0.328 share (log5 0.2114 vs pen 0.2114) = x0.9608 \| starter alone would have been -0.035
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.919 → 1.145	+0.226	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2947n=628 Very good	0.2947	0	+0.255	0 ok
		split	starter x1.3325 at 0.672 share (log5 0.2947 vs his 0.2947) + bullpen x1.0693 at 0.328 share (log5 0.2365 vs pen 0.2365) = x1.2461 \| starter alone would have been +0.305
		Walkswhole staff	0.240 → 0.178	-0.062	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0573n=628 Very good	0.0573	0	-0.110	0 ok
		split	starter x0.6444 at 0.672 share (log5 0.0573 vs his 0.0573) + bullpen x0.9377 at 0.328 share (log5 0.0834 vs pen 0.0834) = x0.7407 \| starter alone would have been -0.085
		Home runswhole staff	0.104 → 0.082	-0.022	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0219n=628 Very good	0.0219	0	-0.029	0 ok
		split	starter x0.7219 at 0.672 share (log5 0.0219 vs his 0.0219) + bullpen x0.9344 at 0.328 share (log5 0.0284 vs pen 0.0284) = x0.7917 \| starter alone would have been -0.029
Derek Hill	CF	Hitswhole staff	0.831 → 0.798	-0.033	0.2169	0.2174n=215 Average	0.2069n=628 Good	0.2075	+0.002	-0.035	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9541 at 0.672 share (log5 0.2075 vs his 0.2069) + bullpen x0.9748 at 0.328 share (log5 0.2120 vs pen 0.2114) = x0.9609 \| starter alone would have been -0.038
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.281 → 1.555	+0.274	0.2212	0.3025n=215 Poor	0.2947n=628 Very good	0.3896	+0.288	+0.261	+0.048 ok
		split	starter x1.2878 at 0.672 share (log5 0.3896 vs his 0.2947) + bullpen x1.0616 at 0.328 share (log5 0.3212 vs pen 0.2365) = x1.2135 \| starter alone would have been +0.369
		Walkswhole staff	0.176 → 0.130	-0.046	0.0889	0.0706n=215 Below average	0.0573n=628 Very good	0.0452	-0.065	-0.112	+0.022 ok
		split	starter x0.6398 at 0.672 share (log5 0.0452 vs his 0.0573) + bullpen x0.9365 at 0.328 share (log5 0.0661 vs pen 0.0834) = x0.7372 \| starter alone would have been -0.064
		Home runswhole staff	0.155 → 0.123	-0.032	0.0304	0.0397n=215 Good	0.0219n=628 Very good	0.0287	+0.033	-0.030	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.7238 at 0.672 share (log5 0.0287 vs his 0.0219) + bullpen x0.935 at 0.328 share (log5 0.0371 vs pen 0.0284) = x0.7931 \| starter alone would have been -0.043
Edmundo Sosa	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.815 → 0.783	-0.032	0.2169	0.2209n=250 Average	0.2069n=628 Good	0.2108	+0.014	-0.035	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9543 at 0.672 share (log5 0.2108 vs his 0.2069) + bullpen x0.9749 at 0.328 share (log5 0.2154 vs pen 0.2114) = x0.9611 \| starter alone would have been -0.037
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.999 → 1.246	+0.247	0.2212	0.2168n=250 Average	0.2947n=628 Very good	0.2895	-0.015	+0.259	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x1.3349 at 0.672 share (log5 0.2895 vs his 0.2947) + bullpen x1.0697 at 0.328 share (log5 0.2320 vs pen 0.2365) = x1.2478 \| starter alone would have been +0.335
		Walkswhole staff	0.135 → 0.099	-0.036	0.0889	0.0477n=250 Poor	0.0573n=628 Very good	0.0302	-0.145	-0.111	+0.050 ok
		split	starter x0.6342 at 0.672 share (log5 0.0302 vs his 0.0573) + bullpen x0.935 at 0.328 share (log5 0.0446 vs pen 0.0834) = x0.733 \| starter alone would have been -0.049
		Home runswhole staff	0.122 → 0.097	-0.025	0.0304	0.0331n=250 Average	0.0219n=628 Very good	0.0239	+0.010	-0.030	-0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.7224 at 0.672 share (log5 0.0239 vs his 0.0219) + bullpen x0.9346 at 0.328 share (log5 0.0309 vs pen 0.0284) = x0.7921 \| starter alone would have been -0.034
Kyle Schwarber	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.849 → 0.815	-0.034	0.2169	0.1993n=696 Poor	0.2069n=628 Good	0.1900	-0.073	-0.042	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9531 at 0.672 share (log5 0.1900 vs his 0.2069) + bullpen x0.9743 at 0.328 share (log5 0.1942 vs pen 0.2114) = x0.9601 \| starter alone would have been -0.040
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.617 → 1.958	+0.341	0.2212	0.3099n=696 Poor	0.2947n=628 Very good	0.3979	+0.369	+0.306	+0.060 ok
		split	starter x1.2839 at 0.672 share (log5 0.3979 vs his 0.2947) + bullpen x1.0609 at 0.328 share (log5 0.3288 vs pen 0.2365) = x1.2107 \| starter alone would have been +0.459
		Walkswhole staff	0.398 → 0.299	-0.099	0.0889	0.1406n=696 Very good	0.0573n=628 Very good	0.0925	+0.215	-0.132	-0.069 ok
		split	starter x0.6576 at 0.672 share (log5 0.0925 vs his 0.0573) + bullpen x0.941 at 0.328 share (log5 0.1323 vs pen 0.0834) = x0.7506 \| starter alone would have been -0.136
		Home runswhole staff	0.243 → 0.193	-0.050	0.0304	0.0542n=696 Very good	0.0219n=628 Very good	0.0394	+0.099	-0.035	-0.026 ok
		split	starter x0.7268 at 0.672 share (log5 0.0394 vs his 0.0219) + bullpen x0.9359 at 0.328 share (log5 0.0507 vs pen 0.0284) = x0.7954 \| starter alone would have been -0.066
Bryson Stott	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.846 → 0.813	-0.033	0.2169	0.2228n=603 Average	0.2069n=628 Good	0.2127	+0.022	-0.037	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9544 at 0.672 share (log5 0.2127 vs his 0.2069) + bullpen x0.975 at 0.328 share (log5 0.2173 vs pen 0.2114) = x0.9612 \| starter alone would have been -0.039
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.779 → 0.987	+0.208	0.2212	0.1700n=603 Good	0.2947n=628 Very good	0.2315	-0.188	+0.270	-0.044 ok
		split	starter x1.3622 at 0.672 share (log5 0.2315 vs his 0.2947) + bullpen x1.0742 at 0.328 share (log5 0.1826 vs pen 0.2365) = x1.2676 \| starter alone would have been +0.282
		Walkswhole staff	0.263 → 0.195	-0.068	0.0889	0.1005n=603 Good	0.0573n=628 Very good	0.0651	+0.043	-0.116	-0.014 ok
		split	starter x0.6473 at 0.672 share (log5 0.0651 vs his 0.0573) + bullpen x0.9384 at 0.328 share (log5 0.0943 vs pen 0.0834) = x0.7429 \| starter alone would have been -0.093
		Home runswhole staff	0.081 → 0.064	-0.017	0.0304	0.0208n=603 Below average	0.0219n=628 Very good	0.0150	-0.035	-0.031	+0.010 ok
		split	starter x0.7199 at 0.672 share (log5 0.0150 vs his 0.0219) + bullpen x0.9338 at 0.328 share (log5 0.0194 vs pen 0.0284) = x0.7901 \| starter alone would have been -0.023
Trea Turner	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.998 → 0.959	-0.039	0.2169	0.2198n=695 Average	0.2069n=628 Good	0.2097	+0.012	-0.042	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9542 at 0.672 share (log5 0.2097 vs his 0.2069) + bullpen x0.9749 at 0.328 share (log5 0.2142 vs pen 0.2114) = x0.961 \| starter alone would have been -0.046
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.083 → 1.354	+0.271	0.2212	0.2108n=695 Average	0.2947n=628 Very good	0.2821	-0.044	+0.313	-0.009 ok
		split	starter x1.3384 at 0.672 share (log5 0.2821 vs his 0.2947) + bullpen x1.0703 at 0.328 share (log5 0.2256 vs pen 0.2365) = x1.2504 \| starter alone would have been +0.367
		Walkswhole staff	0.249 → 0.183	-0.065	0.0889	0.0720n=695 Below average	0.0573n=628 Very good	0.0461	-0.072	-0.135	+0.024 ok
		split	starter x0.6401 at 0.672 share (log5 0.0461 vs his 0.0573) + bullpen x0.9366 at 0.328 share (log5 0.0674 vs pen 0.0834) = x0.7374 \| starter alone would have been -0.089
		Home runswhole staff	0.122 → 0.097	-0.025	0.0304	0.0271n=695 Average	0.0219n=628 Very good	0.0196	-0.014	-0.036	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.7212 at 0.672 share (log5 0.0196 vs his 0.0219) + bullpen x0.9342 at 0.328 share (log5 0.0254 vs pen 0.0284) = x0.7911 \| starter alone would have been -0.034
J.T. Realmuto	C	Hitswhole staff	0.679 → 0.652	-0.027	0.2169	0.1989n=467 Poor	0.2069n=628 Good	0.1896	-0.061	-0.034	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.953 at 0.672 share (log5 0.1896 vs his 0.2069) + bullpen x0.9742 at 0.328 share (log5 0.1938 vs pen 0.2114) = x0.96 \| starter alone would have been -0.032
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.918 → 1.147	+0.228	0.2212	0.2148n=467 Average	0.2947n=628 Very good	0.2870	-0.022	+0.252	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x1.3361 at 0.672 share (log5 0.2870 vs his 0.2947) + bullpen x1.0699 at 0.328 share (log5 0.2298 vs pen 0.2365) = x1.2487 \| starter alone would have been +0.309
		Walkswhole staff	0.227 → 0.168	-0.059	0.0889	0.0812n=467 Average	0.0573n=628 Very good	0.0522	-0.026	-0.108	+0.009 ok
		split	starter x0.6424 at 0.672 share (log5 0.0522 vs his 0.0573) + bullpen x0.9372 at 0.328 share (log5 0.0761 vs pen 0.0834) = x0.7392 \| starter alone would have been -0.081
		Home runswhole staff	0.090 → 0.071	-0.019	0.0304	0.0260n=467 Average	0.0219n=628 Very good	0.0188	-0.015	-0.029	+0.004 ok
		split	starter x0.721 at 0.672 share (log5 0.0188 vs his 0.0219) + bullpen x0.9342 at 0.328 share (log5 0.0243 vs pen 0.0284) = x0.791 \| starter alone would have been -0.025
STARTER Jesús Luzardo26.1623 BF	Starter	Hits	4.546 → 4.719	+0.173	0.2169	0.2000n=730 Good	0.22498/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2076	-0.442	+0.211	-0.012 ok
		Strikeouts	8.543 → 8.175	-0.367	0.2212	0.2947n=730 Very good	0.21088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2820	+1.922	-0.274	-0.058 ok
		Walks	1.720 → 1.597	-0.123	0.0889	0.0744n=730 Good	0.08268/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0690	-0.381	-0.165	+0.025 ok
		Home runs	0.619 → 0.714	+0.095	0.0304	0.0243n=730 Very good	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0280	-0.160	+0.121	-0.024 ok
RELIEVER José Alvarado1.6784 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.379 → 0.393	+0.014	0.2169	0.2255n=268 Below average	0.22498/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2338	+0.015	+0.013	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.418 → 0.399	-0.019	0.2212	0.2491n=268 Good	0.21088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2377	+0.047	-0.018	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.174 → 0.162	-0.012	0.0889	0.1034n=268 Below average	0.08268/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0962	+0.024	-0.011	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.044 → 0.050	+0.007	0.0304	0.0260n=268 Good	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0300	-0.007	+0.008	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Alex McFarlane1.5228 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.330 → 0.343	+0.012	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22498/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2249	0	+0.012	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.337 → 0.321	-0.016	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2108	0	-0.016	0 ok
		Walks	0.135 → 0.126	-0.010	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.08268/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0826	0	-0.010	0 ok
		Home runs	0.046 → 0.053	+0.007	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0350	0	+0.007	0 ok
RELIEVER Orion Kerkering1.3051 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.264 → 0.274	+0.010	0.2169	0.2024n=268 Good	0.22498/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2101	-0.019	+0.011	-0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.303 → 0.288	-0.014	0.2212	0.2319n=268 Average	0.21088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2211	+0.014	-0.014	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.147 → 0.137	-0.010	0.0889	0.1128n=268 Below average	0.08268/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1050	+0.031	-0.008	-0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.034 → 0.039	+0.005	0.0304	0.0260n=268 Good	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0300	-0.006	+0.006	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Jhoan Duran1.2735 BF	Closer	Hits	0.704 → 0.731	+0.026	0.2169	0.2128n=236 Average	0.22498/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2207	-0.005	+0.010	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	1.516 → 1.453	-0.063	0.2212	0.3218n=236 Very good	0.21088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.3084	+0.128	-0.013	-0.004 ok
		Walks	0.179 → 0.166	-0.013	0.0889	0.0610n=236 Very good	0.08268/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0566	-0.035	-0.008	+0.002 ok
		Home runs	0.028 → 0.032	+0.004	0.0304	0.0228n=236 Very good	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0263	-0.010	+0.006	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Chase Shugart1.181 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.243 → 0.253	+0.009	0.2169	0.2062n=219 Good	0.22498/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2139	-0.013	+0.009	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.299 → 0.285	-0.014	0.2212	0.2531n=219 Good	0.21088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2416	+0.038	-0.012	-0.001 ok
		Walks	0.107 → 0.099	-0.007	0.0889	0.0903n=219 Average	0.08268/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0839	+0.002	-0.007	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.042 → 0.048	+0.006	0.0304	0.0354n=219 Below average	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0408	+0.006	+0.005	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Tanner Banks1.0253 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.253 → 0.262	+0.009	0.2169	0.2463n=176 Poor	0.22498/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2551	+0.030	+0.008	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	0.223 → 0.212	-0.011	0.2212	0.2176n=176 Average	0.21088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2072	-0.004	-0.011	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.089 → 0.083	-0.006	0.0889	0.0870n=176 Average	0.08268/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0808	-0.002	-0.006	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.035 → 0.041	+0.005	0.0304	0.0346n=176 Below average	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0399	+0.004	+0.005	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Jonathan Bowlan0.9949 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.203 → 0.211	+0.008	0.2169	0.2042n=224 Good	0.22498/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2119	-0.013	+0.008	-0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.293 → 0.281	-0.013	0.2212	0.2950n=224 Very good	0.21088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2823	+0.073	-0.010	-0.002 ok
		Walks	0.073 → 0.068	-0.005	0.0889	0.0734n=224 Good	0.08268/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0681	-0.015	-0.006	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.032 → 0.037	+0.005	0.0304	0.0322n=224 Below average	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0371	+0.002	+0.005	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Brooks Raley0.8697 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.187 → 0.194	+0.007	0.2169	0.2151n=221 Average	0.22498/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2231	-0.002	+0.007	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.196 → 0.186	-0.009	0.2212	0.2249n=221 Average	0.21088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2143	+0.003	-0.009	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.078 → 0.073	-0.005	0.0889	0.0898n=221 Average	0.08268/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0835	+0.001	-0.005	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.025 → 0.029	+0.004	0.0304	0.0293n=221 Average	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0338	-0.001	+0.004	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Tim Mayza0.7151 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.154 → 0.160	+0.006	0.2169	0.2154n=262 Average	0.22498/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2234	-0.001	+0.006	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.167 → 0.159	-0.008	0.2212	0.2330n=262 Average	0.21088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2222	+0.009	-0.007	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.053 → 0.049	-0.004	0.0889	0.0739n=262 Good	0.08268/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0686	-0.011	-0.004	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.021 → 0.024	+0.003	0.0304	0.0290n=262 Average	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0335	-0.001	+0.003	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Max Lazar0.4038 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.088 → 0.091	+0.003	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22498/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2249	0	+0.003	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.089 → 0.085	-0.004	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2108	0	-0.004	0 ok
		Walks	0.036 → 0.033	-0.003	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.08268/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0826	0	-0.003	0 ok
		Home runs	0.012 → 0.014	+0.002	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0350	0	+0.002	0 ok
RELIEVER Grant Holman0.3102 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.067 → 0.070	+0.003	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22498/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2249	0	+0.003	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.069 → 0.065	-0.003	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21088/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2108	0	-0.003	0 ok
		Walks	0.028 → 0.026	-0.002	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.08268/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0826	0	-0.002	0 ok
		Home runs	0.009 → 0.011	+0.001	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03508/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0350	0	+0.001	0 ok

ATL against Robert Suarez (RHP)

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to ATL hitter lines.
Opposing staff exposure. These hitters face the starter for 26.1623 of 37.442 projected batters (69.9%) and the 1 projected relievers for the remaining 30.1%. Every metric below is the exposure-weighted blend of both matchups; the starter-only figure is shown beside it. Real 2026 game logs put a starter at 21.75 batters faced on average (median 23, p10-p90 17-27) and a whole staff at 37.9: this starter is inside that band and this staff is inside its. The per-player columns are the measured alternative: each subject moved by his own KPI pairing. Exposure for a hitter is his projected plate appearances; for the starter it is batters faced.

Player	Pos	Metric	Published → KPI	Δ	League	Own rate	Opponent rate	Log5	Own skill	Opponent	Remainder
Drake Baldwin	C	Hitswhole staff	1.063 → 1.005	-0.057	0.2169	0.2374n=598 Very good	0.2000n=730 Good	0.2193	+0.090	-0.074	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.924 at 0.699 share (log5 0.2193 vs his 0.2000) + bullpen x0.9971 at 0.301 share (log5 0.2367 vs pen 0.2162) = x0.946 \| starter alone would have been -0.081
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.176 → 1.498	+0.323	0.2212	0.2099n=598 Average	0.2947n=730 Very good	0.2810	-0.050	+0.323	-0.011 ok
		split	starter x1.3385 at 0.699 share (log5 0.2810 vs his 0.2947) + bullpen x1.1254 at 0.301 share (log5 0.2363 vs pen 0.2485) = x1.2743 \| starter alone would have been +0.398
		Walkswhole staff	0.319 → 0.282	-0.037	0.0889	0.0915n=598 Average	0.0744n=730 Good	0.0765	+0.011	-0.064	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8368 at 0.699 share (log5 0.0765 vs his 0.0744) + bullpen x0.9943 at 0.301 share (log5 0.0909 vs pen 0.0884) = x0.8843 \| starter alone would have been -0.052
		Home runswhole staff	0.177 → 0.150	-0.027	0.0304	0.0371n=598 Good	0.0243n=730 Very good	0.0297	+0.030	-0.027	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.8003 at 0.699 share (log5 0.0297 vs his 0.0243) + bullpen x0.9635 at 0.301 share (log5 0.0358 vs pen 0.0293) = x0.8495 \| starter alone would have been -0.035
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	Hitswhole staff	0.919 → 0.869	-0.051	0.2169	0.2212n=457 Average	0.2000n=730 Good	0.2041	+0.019	-0.073	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.9225 at 0.699 share (log5 0.2041 vs his 0.2000) + bullpen x0.997 at 0.301 share (log5 0.2206 vs pen 0.2162) = x0.9449 \| starter alone would have been -0.071
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.077 → 1.368	+0.291	0.2212	0.2190n=457 Average	0.2947n=730 Very good	0.2921	-0.009	+0.318	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x1.3333 at 0.699 share (log5 0.2921 vs his 0.2947) + bullpen x1.1238 at 0.301 share (log5 0.2462 vs pen 0.2485) = x1.2702 \| starter alone would have been +0.359
		Walkswhole staff	0.414 → 0.367	-0.047	0.0889	0.1104n=457 Good	0.0744n=730 Good	0.0927	+0.093	-0.063	-0.014 ok
		split	starter x0.8396 at 0.699 share (log5 0.0927 vs his 0.0744) + bullpen x0.9944 at 0.301 share (log5 0.1098 vs pen 0.0884) = x0.8862 \| starter alone would have been -0.066
		Home runswhole staff	0.163 → 0.138	-0.025	0.0304	0.0389n=457 Good	0.0243n=730 Very good	0.0311	+0.037	-0.026	-0.007 ok
		split	starter x0.8005 at 0.699 share (log5 0.0311 vs his 0.0243) + bullpen x0.9635 at 0.301 share (log5 0.0374 vs pen 0.0293) = x0.8496 \| starter alone would have been -0.033
Mauricio Dubón	LF	Hitswhole staff	1.012 → 0.957	-0.055	0.2169	0.2382n=603 Very good	0.2000n=730 Good	0.2201	+0.085	-0.067	-0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.924 at 0.699 share (log5 0.2201 vs his 0.2000) + bullpen x0.9971 at 0.301 share (log5 0.2375 vs pen 0.2162) = x0.946 \| starter alone would have been -0.077
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.568 → 0.746	+0.178	0.2212	0.1270n=603 Very good	0.2947n=730 Very good	0.1763	-0.374	+0.291	-0.096 ok
		split	starter x1.3878 at 0.699 share (log5 0.1763 vs his 0.2947) + bullpen x1.1404 at 0.301 share (log5 0.1448 vs pen 0.2485) = x1.3133 \| starter alone would have been +0.220
		Walkswhole staff	0.232 → 0.205	-0.028	0.0889	0.0631n=603 Below average	0.0744n=730 Good	0.0526	-0.102	-0.058	+0.016 ok
		split	starter x0.8325 at 0.699 share (log5 0.0526 vs his 0.0744) + bullpen x0.9941 at 0.301 share (log5 0.0628 vs pen 0.0884) = x0.8812 \| starter alone would have been -0.039
		Home runswhole staff	0.096 → 0.082	-0.015	0.0304	0.0231n=603 Below average	0.0243n=730 Very good	0.0184	-0.029	-0.024	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.7979 at 0.699 share (log5 0.0184 vs his 0.0243) + bullpen x0.963 at 0.301 share (log5 0.0222 vs pen 0.0293) = x0.8476 \| starter alone would have been -0.019
Matt Olson	1B	Hitswhole staff	0.903 → 0.853	-0.050	0.2169	0.2232n=682 Average	0.2000n=730 Good	0.2059	+0.025	-0.068	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9226 at 0.699 share (log5 0.2059 vs his 0.2000) + bullpen x0.9971 at 0.301 share (log5 0.2225 vs pen 0.2162) = x0.945 \| starter alone would have been -0.070
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.260 → 1.589	+0.328	0.2212	0.2406n=682 Average	0.2947n=730 Very good	0.3178	+0.078	+0.297	+0.015 ok
		split	starter x1.3212 at 0.699 share (log5 0.3178 vs his 0.2947) + bullpen x1.12 at 0.301 share (log5 0.2694 vs pen 0.2485) = x1.2606 \| starter alone would have been +0.405
		Walkswhole staff	0.294 → 0.260	-0.034	0.0889	0.0919n=682 Average	0.0744n=730 Good	0.0769	+0.012	-0.059	-0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.8368 at 0.699 share (log5 0.0769 vs his 0.0744) + bullpen x0.9943 at 0.301 share (log5 0.0913 vs pen 0.0884) = x0.8843 \| starter alone would have been -0.048
		Home runswhole staff	0.208 → 0.177	-0.031	0.0304	0.0518n=682 Very good	0.0243n=730 Very good	0.0416	+0.087	-0.025	-0.017 ok
		split	starter x0.8027 at 0.699 share (log5 0.0416 vs his 0.0243) + bullpen x0.964 at 0.301 share (log5 0.0499 vs pen 0.0293) = x0.8513 \| starter alone would have been -0.041
Mike Yastrzemski	DH	Hitswhole staff	0.733 → 0.692	-0.041	0.2169	0.2093n=398 Below average	0.2000n=730 Good	0.1929	-0.027	-0.060	+0.002 ok
		split	starter x0.9214 at 0.699 share (log5 0.1929 vs his 0.2000) + bullpen x0.997 at 0.301 share (log5 0.2087 vs pen 0.2162) = x0.9442 \| starter alone would have been -0.058
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.064 → 1.346	+0.282	0.2212	0.2301n=398 Average	0.2947n=730 Very good	0.3053	+0.032	+0.262	+0.006 ok
		split	starter x1.3271 at 0.699 share (log5 0.3053 vs his 0.2947) + bullpen x1.1218 at 0.301 share (log5 0.2581 vs pen 0.2485) = x1.2652 \| starter alone would have been +0.348
		Walkswhole staff	0.268 → 0.237	-0.031	0.0889	0.0998n=398 Average	0.0744n=730 Good	0.0836	+0.039	-0.052	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.838 at 0.699 share (log5 0.0836 vs his 0.0744) + bullpen x0.9943 at 0.301 share (log5 0.0992 vs pen 0.0884) = x0.8851 \| starter alone would have been -0.043
		Home runswhole staff	0.109 → 0.093	-0.017	0.0304	0.0302n=398 Average	0.0243n=730 Very good	0.0242	-0.001	-0.022	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.7991 at 0.699 share (log5 0.0242 vs his 0.0243) + bullpen x0.9632 at 0.301 share (log5 0.0291 vs pen 0.0293) = x0.8485 \| starter alone would have been -0.022
Michael Harris II	CF	Hitswhole staff	1.051 → 0.995	-0.056	0.2169	0.2533n=608 Very good	0.2000n=730 Good	0.2344	+0.144	-0.067	-0.008 ok
		split	starter x0.9254 at 0.699 share (log5 0.2344 vs his 0.2000) + bullpen x0.9972 at 0.301 share (log5 0.2525 vs pen 0.2162) = x0.947 \| starter alone would have been -0.078
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.116 → 1.432	+0.316	0.2212	0.1915n=608 Average	0.2947n=730 Very good	0.2584	-0.118	+0.291	-0.026 ok
		split	starter x1.3492 at 0.699 share (log5 0.2584 vs his 0.2947) + bullpen x1.1287 at 0.301 share (log5 0.2162 vs pen 0.2485) = x1.2828 \| starter alone would have been +0.390
		Walkswhole staff	0.142 → 0.125	-0.017	0.0889	0.0462n=608 Poor	0.0744n=730 Good	0.0383	-0.169	-0.058	+0.026 ok
		split	starter x0.83 at 0.699 share (log5 0.0383 vs his 0.0744) + bullpen x0.994 at 0.301 share (log5 0.0459 vs pen 0.0884) = x0.8794 \| starter alone would have been -0.024
		Home runswhole staff	0.155 → 0.132	-0.023	0.0304	0.0379n=608 Good	0.0243n=730 Very good	0.0303	+0.030	-0.024	-0.006 ok
		split	starter x0.8004 at 0.699 share (log5 0.0303 vs his 0.0243) + bullpen x0.9635 at 0.301 share (log5 0.0365 vs pen 0.0293) = x0.8495 \| starter alone would have been -0.031
Ozzie Albies	2B	Hitswhole staff	0.833 → 0.786	-0.046	0.2169	0.2154n=667 Average	0.2000n=730 Good	0.1986	-0.006	-0.065	+0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.9219 at 0.699 share (log5 0.1986 vs his 0.2000) + bullpen x0.997 at 0.301 share (log5 0.2147 vs pen 0.2162) = x0.9445 \| starter alone would have been -0.065
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.732 → 0.950	+0.218	0.2212	0.1576n=667 Good	0.2947n=730 Very good	0.2157	-0.245	+0.283	-0.059 ok
		split	starter x1.3692 at 0.699 share (log5 0.2157 vs his 0.2947) + bullpen x1.1348 at 0.301 share (log5 0.1788 vs pen 0.2485) = x1.2986 \| starter alone would have been +0.270
		Walkswhole staff	0.254 → 0.224	-0.030	0.0889	0.0707n=667 Below average	0.0744n=730 Good	0.0590	-0.070	-0.056	+0.011 ok
		split	starter x0.8337 at 0.699 share (log5 0.0590 vs his 0.0744) + bullpen x0.9942 at 0.301 share (log5 0.0703 vs pen 0.0884) = x0.8821 \| starter alone would have been -0.042
		Home runswhole staff	0.124 → 0.105	-0.019	0.0304	0.0322n=667 Average	0.0243n=730 Very good	0.0258	+0.007	-0.024	-0.001 ok
		split	starter x0.7994 at 0.699 share (log5 0.0258 vs his 0.0243) + bullpen x0.9633 at 0.301 share (log5 0.0311 vs pen 0.0293) = x0.8488 \| starter alone would have been -0.025
Ha-Seong Kim	SS	Hitswhole staff	0.603 → 0.570	-0.033	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2000n=730 Good	0.2000	0	-0.054	0 ok
		split	starter x0.9221 at 0.699 share (log5 0.2000 vs his 0.2000) + bullpen x0.997 at 0.301 share (log5 0.2162 vs pen 0.2162) = x0.9447 \| starter alone would have been -0.047
		Strikeoutswhole staff	0.921 → 1.169	+0.248	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.2947n=730 Very good	0.2947	0	+0.235	0 ok
		split	starter x1.3321 at 0.699 share (log5 0.2947 vs his 0.2947) + bullpen x1.1234 at 0.301 share (log5 0.2485 vs pen 0.2485) = x1.2692 \| starter alone would have been +0.306
		Walkswhole staff	0.287 → 0.254	-0.033	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0744n=730 Good	0.0744	0	-0.047	0 ok
		split	starter x0.8364 at 0.699 share (log5 0.0744 vs his 0.0744) + bullpen x0.9943 at 0.301 share (log5 0.0884 vs pen 0.0884) = x0.884 \| starter alone would have been -0.047
		Home runswhole staff	0.062 → 0.053	-0.009	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.0243n=730 Very good	0.0243	0	-0.020	0 ok
		split	starter x0.7991 at 0.699 share (log5 0.0243 vs his 0.0243) + bullpen x0.9632 at 0.301 share (log5 0.0293 vs pen 0.0293) = x0.8485 \| starter alone would have been -0.013
Austin Riley	3B	Hitswhole staff	0.762 → 0.719	-0.043	0.2169	0.2034n=614 Below average	0.2000n=730 Good	0.1873	-0.049	-0.062	+0.003 ok
		split	starter x0.9208 at 0.699 share (log5 0.1873 vs his 0.2000) + bullpen x0.997 at 0.301 share (log5 0.2028 vs pen 0.2162) = x0.9438 \| starter alone would have been -0.060
		Strikeoutswhole staff	1.326 → 1.632	+0.306	0.2212	0.3090n=614 Poor	0.2947n=730 Very good	0.3968	+0.320	+0.268	+0.052 ok
		split	starter x1.284 at 0.699 share (log5 0.3968 vs his 0.2947) + bullpen x1.108 at 0.301 share (log5 0.3424 vs pen 0.2485) = x1.231 \| starter alone would have been +0.377
		Walkswhole staff	0.264 → 0.233	-0.031	0.0889	0.0799n=614 Average	0.0744n=730 Good	0.0667	-0.033	-0.053	+0.005 ok
		split	starter x0.835 at 0.699 share (log5 0.0667 vs his 0.0744) + bullpen x0.9942 at 0.301 share (log5 0.0795 vs pen 0.0884) = x0.883 \| starter alone would have been -0.044
		Home runswhole staff	0.111 → 0.094	-0.017	0.0304	0.0308n=614 Average	0.0243n=730 Very good	0.0246	+0.001	-0.022	-0.000 ok
		split	starter x0.7992 at 0.699 share (log5 0.0246 vs his 0.0243) + bullpen x0.9632 at 0.301 share (log5 0.0296 vs pen 0.0293) = x0.8486 \| starter alone would have been -0.022
STARTER Chris Sale24.933 BF	Starter	Hits	4.993 → 4.965	-0.028	0.2169	0.2069n=628 Good	0.21578/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2057	-0.248	-0.030	+0.001 ok
		Strikeouts	7.596 → 7.653	+0.057	0.2212	0.2947n=628 Very good	0.22308/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2970	+1.834	+0.046	+0.009 ok
		Walks	0.725 → 0.759	+0.034	0.0889	0.0573n=628 Very good	0.09298/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0600	-0.788	+0.100	-0.033 ok
		Home runs	0.410 → 0.449	+0.038	0.0304	0.0219n=628 Very good	0.03328/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0240	-0.211	+0.070	-0.019 ok
RELIEVER Didier Fuentes1.7694 BF	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	Hits	1.223 → 1.216	-0.007	0.2169	0.2119n=290 Average	0.21578/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2107	-0.009	-0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	1.525 → 1.537	+0.012	0.2212	0.2802n=290 Very good	0.22308/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2824	+0.104	+0.003	+0.001 ok
		Walks	0.330 → 0.345	+0.015	0.0889	0.0760n=290 Good	0.09298/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0795	-0.023	+0.007	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.131 → 0.143	+0.012	0.0304	0.0266n=290 Good	0.03328/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0291	-0.007	+0.005	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Brent Suter1.5696 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.350 → 0.348	-0.002	0.2169	0.2232n=377 Average	0.21578/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2220	+0.010	-0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.329 → 0.331	+0.003	0.2212	0.2094n=377 Average	0.22308/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2112	-0.018	+0.003	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.117 → 0.123	+0.005	0.0889	0.0748n=377 Good	0.09298/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0783	-0.022	+0.006	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.043 → 0.047	+0.004	0.0304	0.0274n=377 Average	0.03328/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0300	-0.005	+0.004	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER AJ Smith-Shawver1.4684 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.321 → 0.319	-0.002	0.2169	0.2186n=144 Average	0.21578/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2174	+0.003	-0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.293 → 0.295	+0.003	0.2212	0.1996n=144 Below average	0.22308/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2013	-0.032	+0.003	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.146 → 0.153	+0.006	0.0889	0.0995n=144 Below average	0.09298/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1039	+0.016	+0.006	+0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.051 → 0.056	+0.005	0.0304	0.0348n=144 Below average	0.03328/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0381	+0.006	+0.004	+0.001 ok
RELIEVER Ray Kerr1.4026 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.304 → 0.302	-0.002	0.2169	0.2169n=0 averagebelow floor	0.21578/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2157	0	-0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.310 → 0.313	+0.003	0.2212	0.2212n=0 averagebelow floor	0.22308/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2230	0	+0.003	0 ok
		Walks	0.125 → 0.130	+0.006	0.0889	0.0889n=0 averagebelow floor	0.09298/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0929	0	+0.006	0 ok
		Home runs	0.043 → 0.047	+0.004	0.0304	0.0304n=0 averagebelow floor	0.03328/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0332	0	+0.004	0 ok
RELIEVER Victor Mederos1.4026 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.288 → 0.286	-0.002	0.2169	0.2054n=148 Good	0.21578/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2042	-0.016	-0.002	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.318 → 0.321	+0.003	0.2212	0.2267n=148 Average	0.22308/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2286	+0.008	+0.003	0 ok
		Walks	0.129 → 0.134	+0.006	0.0889	0.0917n=148 Average	0.09298/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0958	+0.004	+0.006	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.034 → 0.038	+0.003	0.0304	0.0245n=148 Very good	0.03328/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0268	-0.008	+0.004	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Raisel Iglesias1.2686 BF	Closer	Hits	0.677 → 0.673	-0.004	0.2169	0.2121n=233 Average	0.21578/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2109	-0.006	-0.002	0 ok
		Strikeouts	1.135 → 1.144	+0.009	0.2212	0.2546n=233 Good	0.22308/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2566	+0.042	+0.002	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.199 → 0.208	+0.009	0.0889	0.0794n=233 Average	0.09298/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0830	-0.012	+0.005	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.083 → 0.091	+0.008	0.0304	0.0288n=233 Average	0.03328/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0315	-0.002	+0.004	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Dylan Lee1.2357 BF	Setup Man	Hits	0.882 → 0.877	-0.005	0.2169	0.2007n=253 Good	0.21578/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1995	-0.020	-0.002	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.983 → 0.990	+0.007	0.2212	0.2783n=253 Very good	0.22308/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2805	+0.071	+0.002	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.246 → 0.257	+0.011	0.0889	0.0755n=253 Good	0.09298/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0790	-0.017	+0.005	-0.001 ok
		Home runs	0.037 → 0.041	+0.004	0.0304	0.0237n=253 Very good	0.03328/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0259	-0.008	+0.004	-0.001 ok
RELIEVER Dylan Dodd1.0017 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.194 → 0.193	-0.001	0.2169	0.1933n=186 Very good	0.21578/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1922	-0.024	-0.001	+0.000 ok
		Strikeouts	0.262 → 0.265	+0.002	0.2212	0.2620n=186 Good	0.22308/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2640	+0.041	+0.002	+0.000 ok
		Walks	0.082 → 0.085	+0.004	0.0889	0.0815n=186 Average	0.09298/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0852	-0.007	+0.004	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.029 → 0.032	+0.003	0.0304	0.0294n=186 Average	0.03328/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0321	-0.001	+0.003	-0.000 ok
RELIEVER Grant Holmes0.6678 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.144 → 0.143	-0.001	0.2169	0.2162n=607 Average	0.21578/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2150	-0.001	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.124 → 0.125	+0.001	0.2212	0.1859n=607 Below average	0.22308/9 qualified lineup mean	0.1875	-0.024	+0.001	-0.000 ok
		Walks	0.061 → 0.064	+0.003	0.0889	0.0916n=607 Average	0.09298/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0957	+0.002	+0.003	+0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.022 → 0.025	+0.002	0.0304	0.0338n=607 Below average	0.03328/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0369	+0.002	+0.002	+0.000 ok
RELIEVER Robert Suarez0.4009 BF	Reliever	Hits	0.083 → 0.083	-0.001	0.2169	0.2070n=130 Good	0.21578/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2058	-0.004	-0.001	0 ok
		Strikeouts	0.083 → 0.084	+0.001	0.2212	0.2081n=130 Average	0.22308/9 qualified lineup mean	0.2098	-0.005	+0.001	0 ok
		Walks	0.028 → 0.029	+0.001	0.0889	0.0696n=130 Good	0.09298/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0728	-0.008	+0.002	-0.000 ok
		Home runs	0.010 → 0.011	+0.001	0.0304	0.0253n=130 Good	0.03328/9 qualified lineup mean	0.0276	-0.002	+0.001	-0.000 ok

Published pitching, integer draw beside the continuous model line

Pitcher	Role	BF	IP	expected IP	H int/cont	SO int/cont	BB int/cont	ER int/cont	Rate source
Jesús Luzardo	Starter	26.2	6.2	6.632	8 / 4.546	7 / 8.543	0 / 1.720	3 / 1.298	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Jhoan Duran	Closer	3.9	1.1	0.995	4 / 0.704	0 / 1.516	0 / 0.179	0 / 0.176	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Chris Sale	Starter	24.9	6.1	6.405	5 / 4.993	8 / 7.596	3 / 0.725	2 / 1.479	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Dylan Lee	Setup Man	4.2	1.0	1.011	1 / 0.882	0 / 0.983	1 / 0.246	0 / 0.451	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	3.9	1.0	1.011	1 / 0.677	0 / 1.135	0 / 0.199	0 / 0.216	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	5.6	0.2	1.348	1 / 1.223	1 / 1.525	0 / 0.330	0 / 0.370	all_players_stats_recent_season_blend

Audit: NO DEFECT FOUND

Invariant	Verdict	Evidence
Log5 additivity164 checks	PASS	164 of 164 pass
away club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 2
away staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	24 outs recorded, 24 expected
away starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 6.632
away starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Jesús Luzardo projected 26.2 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
away reliever batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Jhoan Duran projected 3.9 batters faced; real relievers run p01-p99 1-19, median 4, mean 5.01
home club fields exactly one starter	PASS	1 starters in a staff of 4
home staff totals a regulation workload	PASS	27 outs recorded, 27 expected
home starter carries a continuous line	PASS	expected_IP 6.405
home starter batters faced inside the real band	PASS	Chris Sale projected 24.9 batters faced; real starters run p01-p99 4-30, median 23, mean 21.75
home reliever batters faced inside the real band3 checks	PASS	3 of 3 pass
away hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present
home hitters satisfy every coherence rule	PASS	9 hitters checked; H<=AB, HR<=H, 2B+3B+HR<=H, SO<=AB, continuous line present

Provenance. Read only from published artifacts and stored KPI value documents. Nothing is recomputed, so this document cannot disagree with what was published. Per-player metric adjustments are a measurement of the catalog at player level and are labelled as such throughout; the pipeline itself moved team runs, the win probability, and hitter lines by one club-wide ratio.