Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.
Windows shown explicitly: Team recent form = latest 10 games from enhanced analysis. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games (as implemented in services).
Savant layers shown explicitly: hitter Statcast quality, pitcher Statcast quality, and pitch movement from embedded data/all_players_stats.csv features.
Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.
| Layer | Score | Winner | Confidence | Source or usage | Synced or matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shipped prediction | AL 3 - 4 NL | NL | 0.589 | scoring_simulation.final_score | True |
| Simulation draw | AL 2 - 3 NL | NL | - | reconciled_final_score | True |
The shipped score is the pre-simulation model target. The inning simulation is a separate box-score realization used for player lines and stress testing.
| Process Layer | What It Does | Stored Field | Observed Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Historical model | Starts from trained game model output. | score_evolution.steps[historical_ml] | - |
| 2. Variance layer | Applies bounded game variance before enhanced corrections. | score_evolution.steps[variance_applied] | - |
| 3. Recent/team form | Uses latest team form, recent scoring, prevention, and streak state. | enhanced_prediction_analysis.recent_form | True |
| 4. Season quality | Uses season run differential and record quality guardrails. | season_run_differential_adjustment, season_quality_guardrail | True |
| 5. Savant hitters | Applies lineup-level Statcast xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, EV, launch-angle, whiff, K and BB quality. | savant_batter_quality_adjustment | True |
| 6. Savant pitchers | Applies starter run prevention, strikeout, walk, HR and regression factors from xwOBA, wOBA, contact quality and whiff/command. | savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment | False |
| 7. Low-score analysis | Controls unrealistic totals and preserves the pre-sync low-score expected total. | low_score_analysis | 9.8000 |
| 8. Probability/governors | Applies win probability calibration, matchup guardrails, margin governor and confidence governor. | win_probability_calibration, margin_governor, confidence_governor | 0.5890 |
| 9. Simulation reconciliation | Keeps final shipped score and simulation box score auditable side by side. | simulation_reconciliation | reconciled_final_score |
| 10. Score evolution rendered | 7 stored score steps are rendered below. | game.score_evolution.steps | true |
| Step | Layer | Away Runs | Home Runs | Confidence | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | historical_ml | 4.500 | 4.700 | - | Base ML historical model prediction |
| 2 | variance_applied | 4 | 5 | - | Random variance applied (0.9-1.1) |
| 3 | enhanced_prediction | 3 | 4 | 0.5890 | Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis |
| 4 | embedded_savant_run_environment | 3 | 4 | - | Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality |
| 5 | fundamental_edge_target_review | 3 | 4 | - | Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments |
| 6 | capped_target | 3 | 4 | - | Capped at max 12 realistic runs |
| 7 | simulation_result | 2 | 3 | - | Final inning-by-inning simulation result |
{
"low_score_probability": 0.4333350272373542,
"base_low_score_probability": 0.42088197146562906,
"low_score_signal_threshold": 0.5008819714656291,
"low_score_signal_strength": 0.012453055771725119,
"confidence": 0.6147940000000001,
"factors": {
"environmental": 0.9996,
"pitcher_form": 1.0,
"team_form": 1.0,
"situational": 1.03,
"combined": 1.0295880000000002
},
"prediction": "normal_scoring",
"expected_total_runs": 5,
"pre_simulation_expected_total_runs": 9.8,
"low_score_model_expected_total_runs": 9.8,
"final_simulation_total_runs": 5,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"
}{
"method": "historical_slate_bin_shrinkage",
"sample_size": 94,
"near_bucket_sample_size": 94,
"medium_bucket_sample_size": 96,
"wide_bucket_sample_size": 124,
"global_sample_size": 193,
"bucket_scope": "near_0.05",
"sparse_bucket": false,
"empirical_hit_rate": 0.4894,
"bayesian_hit_rate": 0.4911,
"sample_weight": 0.6,
"prior_strength": 18.0,
"reliability": 0.8393,
"confidence_cap": 0.78,
"raw_pick_probability": 0.5125,
"calibrated_pick_probability": 0.505,
"predicted_side": "home"
}{
"applied": false,
"home": {
"team": "NL",
"games": 0,
"wins": 0,
"losses": 0,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 0,
"runs_allowed": 0,
"run_differential": 0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0,
"available": false
},
"away": {
"team": "AL",
"games": 0,
"wins": 0,
"losses": 0,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 0,
"runs_allowed": 0,
"run_differential": 0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0,
"available": false
},
"run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.0,
"win_pct_edge": 0.0,
"quality_edge": 0.0,
"margin_adjustment": 0.0,
"reason": "insufficient completed season games"
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"predicted_team": "NL",
"guardrail_predicted_team": "NL",
"guardrail_opponent_team": null,
"output_pre_simulation_winner": "NL",
"output_opponent_team": "AL",
"final_score_winner": "NL",
"pre_simulation_winner": "NL",
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false
},
"final_prediction_sync": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "AL 3 - 4 NL",
"winner": "NL"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "AL 2 - 3 NL",
"winner": "NL"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"away_run_delta": -1,
"home_run_delta": -1,
"total_run_delta": -2,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "reconciled_final_score",
"final_prediction_source": "simulation_reconciled_final",
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
"winner": "NL",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"confidence_cap": null,
"winner_flipped": false,
"reasons": [],
"signals": {
"home": {
"team": "NL",
"games": 0,
"wins": 0,
"losses": 0,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 0,
"runs_allowed": 0,
"run_differential": 0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0,
"available": false
},
"away": {
"team": "AL",
"games": 0,
"wins": 0,
"losses": 0,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 0,
"runs_allowed": 0,
"run_differential": 0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0,
"available": false
}
}
}{
"applied": false,
"raw_margin": 0.1467,
"final_margin": 0.1467,
"margin_cap": 1.5,
"season_quality_edge": 0.0,
"reason": "raw target margin within supported range"
}{
"applied": false,
"raw_confidence": 0.45,
"final_confidence": 0.505,
"confidence_cap": 0.66,
"score_gap": 0.1467,
"calibration_sample_size": 94,
"calibration_empirical_hit_rate": 0.4894,
"calibration_bayesian_hit_rate": 0.4911,
"calibration_sparse_bucket": false,
"season_quality_edge": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"unvalidated probabilities are capped for production display",
"projected score gap is close",
"local calibration sample has at least 30 games",
"local calibration sample has at least 60 games",
"win-probability calibration cap enforced"
]
}{
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "AL 3 - 4 NL",
"winner": "NL"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "AL 2 - 3 NL",
"winner": "NL"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"away_run_delta": -1,
"home_run_delta": -1,
"total_run_delta": -2,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "reconciled_final_score",
"final_prediction_source": "simulation_reconciled_final",
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
"winner": "NL",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
}{
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 3,
"confidence": 0.5890404340586651,
"home_win_probability": 0.5890404340586651,
"away_win_probability": 0.41095956594133487,
"predicted_score_text": "AL 2 - 3 NL",
"embedded_savant_score_adjustment": {
"applied": true,
"source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded temporal Savant features",
"feature_contract": {
"training_grain": "one player-game row after collapsing granular at-bat rows",
"temporal_rule": "all sl_/ab_/sv_ model features are shifted before the predicted game",
"hitter_signals": [
"xwoba",
"xba",
"xslg",
"barrel_batted_rate",
"hard_hit_percent",
"bat_speed",
"launch_quality",
"walk_rate",
"strikeout_rate"
],
"pitcher_signals": [
"xwoba_allowed",
"barrel_allowed",
"hard_hit_allowed",
"whiff_rate",
"command_score",
"movement_score",
"faced_est_woba",
"faced_strikeout_rate"
]
},
"away": {
"team": "AL",
"original_runs": 3,
"run_delta": 0.0,
"adjusted_runs": 3,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 0,
"total_weight": 1.0,
"quality": 0.0,
"contact": 0.0,
"power": 0.0,
"discipline": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"recent_xwoba": 0.0,
"barrel": 0.0,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.0,
"ab_bat_speed": 0.0,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.0,
"available_players": 0,
"top_players": []
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "starter_1",
"player_name": "Player-starter_1",
"quality": 0.0,
"contact": 0.0,
"command": 0.0,
"movement": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"whiff": 0.0,
"faced_est_woba": 0.0,
"faced_launch_speed": 0.0,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.0,
"faced_run_exp": 0.0
}
},
"home": {
"team": "NL",
"original_runs": 4,
"run_delta": 0.0,
"adjusted_runs": 4,
"lineup": {
"players_used": 0,
"total_weight": 1.0,
"quality": 0.0,
"contact": 0.0,
"power": 0.0,
"discipline": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"recent_xwoba": 0.0,
"barrel": 0.0,
"ab_hard_contact": 0.0,
"ab_bat_speed": 0.0,
"ab_strikeout_rate": 0.0,
"available_players": 0,
"top_players": []
},
"opposing_starter": {
"available": false,
"player_id": "starter_1",
"player_name": "Player-starter_1",
"quality": 0.0,
"contact": 0.0,
"command": 0.0,
"movement": 0.0,
"xwoba": 0.0,
"whiff": 0.0,
"faced_est_woba": 0.0,
"faced_launch_speed": 0.0,
"faced_strikeout_rate": 0.0,
"faced_run_exp": 0.0
}
}
},
"fundamental_edge_target_review": {
"applied": false,
"method": "post_score_adjustment_fundamental_edge_review_v1",
"previous_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"adjusted_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"winner_side": "home"
},
"signals": {
"season_quality_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
"recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
"pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
"composite_home_edge": 0.18,
"existing_home_win_probability": 0.505,
"refreshed_home_win_probability": 0.589,
"winner_support_before_review": 0.18
},
"reasons": [
"target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile"
]
},
"confidence_note": "Calibrated to pre-simulation winner probability with starter-quality caps. Production confidence governor cap enforced.",
"pre_simulation_target": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"predicted_score_text": "AL 3 - 4 NL",
"confidence": 0.5890404340586651,
"source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
},
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"final_prediction_synced": true,
"final_prediction_source": "simulation_reconciled_final",
"simulation_usage": "reconciled_final_score",
"simulation_score_matches_prediction": true,
"simulation_reconciliation": {
"pre_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 3,
"home_runs": 4,
"score_text": "AL 3 - 4 NL",
"winner": "NL"
},
"final_simulation_score": {
"away_runs": 2,
"home_runs": 3,
"score_text": "AL 2 - 3 NL",
"winner": "NL"
},
"winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
"away_run_delta": -1,
"home_run_delta": -1,
"total_run_delta": -2,
"score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score",
"simulation_usage": "reconciled_final_score",
"final_prediction_source": "simulation_reconciled_final",
"final_margin_quality_review": {
"review_required": false,
"pre_margin": 1,
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
"winner": "NL",
"reason": "final margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
}
},
"decision_profile": {
"method": "fund_review_decision_profile_v1",
"winner": "NL",
"display_confidence": 0.589,
"internal_fair_probability": 0.505,
"confidence_compression_detected": false,
"vig_break_even_reference": 0.524,
"fair_edge_vs_break_even": -0.019,
"moneyline_fit": "pass",
"margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
"totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
"winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
"signals": {
"final_margin": 1,
"winner_quality_edge": 0.0,
"winner_recent_form_edge": 0.0,
"winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0,
"winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4375,
"blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.1875,
"high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.25,
"low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.375,
"total_runs_spread": {
"min": 1,
"median": 8,
"max": 17,
"range": 16
}
},
"interpretation": "Use internal_fair_probability for edge ranking; display_confidence may be capped by production calibration."
}
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant hitter features. It adjusts team offense through expected production and contact quality, then records coverage so missing hitters are visible.
| Team | Applied | Offense Factor | Raw Avg Factor | Coverage Weight | Covered | Missing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away AL | False | 1 | - | - | 0 | 9 |
| Home NL | False | 1 | - | - | 0 | 9 |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - | No Savant hitter match | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Pos | Player | ESPN Rank | Off Factor | Quality | Regression | xwOBA | xBA | xSLG | Barrel% | HardHit% | EV | LA | Whiff% | K% | BB% | Regression Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - | No Savant hitter match | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
{
"home": {
"applied": false,
"offense_factor": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 0,
"missing_batters": 9,
"players": [],
"reason": "no lineup hitters matched embedded all_players_stats.csv Savant batter features"
},
"away": {
"applied": false,
"offense_factor": 1.0,
"covered_batters": 0,
"missing_batters": 9,
"players": [],
"reason": "no lineup hitters matched embedded all_players_stats.csv Savant batter features"
},
"reason": "Baseball Savant hitter xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, exit velocity, launch angle, barrel, hard-hit, sweet-spot, whiff, K%, and BB% adjusted offense; ESPN rank is attached for reporting only"
}Source: data/all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher and movement features. Starter quality modifies opposing run scoring and pitcher strikeout/walk/homer expectations.
| Team | Pitcher | Available | ESPN Rank | Quality | Sample Wt | Run Prev | K Factor | BB Factor | HR Factor | Regression | xwOBA | wOBA | K% | BB% | Whiff% | Barrel% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away AL | starter_1 | False | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | pitcher_not_in_embedded_savant_pitcher_profile | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home NL | starter_1 | False | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | pitcher_not_in_embedded_savant_pitcher_profile | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | Pitcher | Movement Available | Primary Pitch | Pitches | Velo | Spin | Axis | HB | IVB | Drop | Rel X | Rel Z | Extension | Arm Angle | Movement Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away AL | starter_1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home NL | starter_1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Run Factor | Value |
|---|---|
| - | - |
{
"applied": false,
"home_pitcher": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "starter_1",
"reason": "pitcher_not_in_embedded_savant_pitcher_profile"
},
"away_pitcher": {
"available": false,
"pitcher_id": "starter_1",
"reason": "pitcher_not_in_embedded_savant_pitcher_profile"
},
"run_factors": {},
"score_before": {},
"score_after": {},
"reason": "no cached Savant metrics for scheduled starters"
}| Team | Last-10 W-L | Win % | R/G | RA/G | Run Diff | Streak | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away AL | 0-0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home NL | 0-0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Team | Record | Win % | Run Diff | RD/Game | Available |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away AL | 0-0 | 0.500 | 0 | 0 | False |
| Home NL | 0-0 | 0.500 | 0 | 0 | False |
| Signal | - | - | 0 | 0 | applied=False |
| Date | Matchup | Score | Winner | Margin | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Layer | AB | H | R | HR | RBI | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game target AL | - | - | 3 | - | - | - | - |
| Game target NL | - | - | 4 | - | - | - | - |
| Player finalized AL | 27 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Player finalized NL | 27 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| Player model fractional AL | 30.53 | 7.47 | 4.04 | 1.09 | 3.94 | 2.88 | 7.54 |
| Player model fractional NL | 30.53 | 7.47 | 4.04 | 1.09 | 3.94 | 2.88 | 7.54 |
| Simulation box AL | 33 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| Simulation box NL | 32 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
If player finalized rows and game target disagree, the report now exposes that gap instead of hiding it. Fractional model rows show the unrounded prop layer before box-score realization.
| Team | Role | Pitcher | Pre IP | Pre ER | Pre SO | Pre H | Pre BB | Weighted ERA | Weighted WHIP | Box Sync |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away AL | Starter | Player-starter_1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 4.57 | 1.34 | True |
| Home NL | Starter | Player-starter_1 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 4.57 | 1.34 | True |
| Side | Team | Role | Pos | Player | Dominant | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Largest Metric | Largest Delta | Direction | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away | AL | batter | 2B | Player-generic_away_4 | worse | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_SO | 3.1690 | boost | worse |
| away | AL | pitcher | Starter | Player-starter_1 | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 2.9000 | boost | better |
| home | NL | pitcher | Starter | Player-starter_1 | better | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP | 2.9000 | boost | better |
| home | NL | batter | C | Player-generic_home_4 | worse | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | predicted_SO | 2.1690 | boost | worse |
| home | NL | batter | CF | Player-generic_home_8 | better | 8 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 3 | predicted_RBI | 1.5720 | boost | better |
| home | NL | batter | DH | Player-generic_home_3 | deboosted | 8 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | predicted_H | 1.2340 | boost | better |
| away | AL | batter | 1B | Player-generic_away_1 | worse | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_H | 1.1860 | boost | better |
| home | NL | batter | SS | Player-generic_home_7 | better | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | predicted_H | 1.1860 | boost | better |
| away | AL | batter | SS | Player-generic_away_6 | worse | 8 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 6 | predicted_SO | 1.1690 | boost | worse |
| home | NL | batter | 2B | Player-generic_home_2 | worse | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_SO | 1.1690 | boost | worse |
| away | AL | batter | LF | Player-generic_away_8 | better | 8 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | predicted_HR | 0.8840 | boost | better |
| away | AL | batter | RF | Player-generic_away_9 | boosted | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | predicted_HR | 0.8840 | boost | better |
| away | AL | batter | DH | Player-generic_away_3 | deboosted | 8 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | predicted_SO | -0.8690 | deboost | better |
| away | AL | batter | 3B | Player-generic_away_5 | worse | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 6 | predicted_SO | -0.8310 | deboost | better |
| home | NL | batter | 3B | Player-generic_home_6 | worse | 8 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | predicted_SO | -0.8310 | deboost | better |
| home | NL | batter | RF | Player-generic_home_9 | worse | 8 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 6 | predicted_SO | -0.8310 | deboost | better |
| away | AL | batter | C | Player-generic_away_2 | worse | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_H | -0.8140 | deboost | worse |
| away | AL | batter | CF | Player-generic_away_7 | worse | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_H | -0.8140 | deboost | worse |
| home | NL | batter | 1B | Player-generic_home_1 | worse | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_H | -0.8140 | deboost | worse |
| home | NL | batter | LF | Player-generic_home_5 | worse | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 7 | predicted_H | -0.8140 | deboost | worse |
This table ranks players whose JSON evolution changed materially. Boost/deboost is numeric movement; better/worse is role-aware.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Player-starter_1 |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | league_average_stable_fallback |
| Savant Quality Score | - |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | - |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 3 |
| Pre ER | 3 |
| Pre H | 8 |
| Pre BB | 0 |
| Pre SO | 8 |
| Season ERA | - |
| Season WHIP | - |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "AL",
"games": 0,
"wins": 0,
"losses": 0,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 0,
"runs_allowed": 0,
"run_differential": 0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.541477640959171,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.541477640959171,
"offense_index": 1.0,
"defense_index": 1.0,
"current_streak": "0",
"recent": {
"games": 0,
"wins": 0,
"losses": 0,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.541477640959171,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.541477640959171,
"run_differential": 0
},
"available": false
},
"opponent": {
"team": "NL",
"games": 0,
"wins": 0,
"losses": 0,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 0,
"runs_allowed": 0,
"run_differential": 0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.541477640959171,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.541477640959171,
"offense_index": 1.0,
"defense_index": 1.0,
"current_streak": "0",
"recent": {
"games": 0,
"wins": 0,
"losses": 0,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.541477640959171,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.541477640959171,
"run_differential": 0
},
"available": false
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.0,
"offense_edge": 0.0,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0,
"defense_strength": 0.0,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0,
"run_prevention": 1.0,
"strikeout": 1.0
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No pitcher-specific recent-form block was stored for this row.",
"display_fallback": "Use Player Form Blend windows for last-5, last-10, and season pitcher form."
}{}{
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Recent form with overlapping-window de-duplication and Bayesian league-prior shrinkage for small samples",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 0.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.0,
"prior_weight": 1.0
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "starter_1",
"report_date": "20260714_A",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 0,
"reference_playing_time": 0.1,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 0,
"totals": {
"IP": 0.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 0.0,
"Pitches": 0.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 0.0,
"Pitches": 0.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": null,
"WHIP": null,
"ER_per_IP": null,
"H_per_IP": null,
"BB_per_IP": null,
"SO_per_IP": null,
"HR_per_IP": null
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 0,
"totals": {
"IP": 0.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 0.0,
"Pitches": 0.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 0.0,
"Pitches": 0.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": null,
"WHIP": null,
"ER_per_IP": null,
"H_per_IP": null,
"BB_per_IP": null,
"SO_per_IP": null,
"HR_per_IP": null
}
},
"season": {
"games": 0,
"totals": {
"IP": 0.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 0.0,
"Pitches": 0.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 0.0,
"Pitches": 0.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": null,
"WHIP": null,
"ER_per_IP": null,
"H_per_IP": null,
"BB_per_IP": null,
"SO_per_IP": null,
"HR_per_IP": null
}
}
},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 0.1,
"predicted_ER": 0.169,
"predicted_H": 0.325,
"predicted_BB": 0.12,
"predicted_SO": 0.319,
"predicted_HR": 0.051,
"predicted_ERA": 4.5713,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.3359
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.7725,
"form_weight": 0.2275,
"form_reliability": 0.0,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 0.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.0,
"prior_weight": 1.0
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.1,
"form": 0.1,
"final": 0.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 3.0,
"form": 0.169,
"final": 2.3559,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 8.0,
"form": 0.325,
"final": 6.2539,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 0.0,
"form": 0.12,
"final": 0.0273,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 8.0,
"form": 0.319,
"final": 6.2526,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.051,
"final": 1.5566,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.5713,
"final": 4.5713,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.3359,
"final": 1.3359,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.146 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.152 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.343 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.766 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.136 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.317 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.411 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.425 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.869 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | deboosted |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_2B: 0.1460 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8540, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8690 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8690, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.1520 -> 3.2541 (boost 0.1021, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.7939 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2061, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4472 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4472, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.042 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4258 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4258, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2440 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0890, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4224 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0894, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | predicted_2B: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4224 (boost 0.0894, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2440 (deboost -0.0890, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "generic_away_3",
"player_name": "Player-generic_away_3",
"position": "DH",
"team": "AL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.146,
"predicted_3B": 0.01,
"predicted_AB": 3.152,
"predicted_AVG": 0.243,
"predicted_BB": 0.343,
"predicted_H": 0.766,
"predicted_HR": 0.136,
"predicted_OBP": 0.317,
"predicted_R": 0.411,
"predicted_RBI": 0.44,
"predicted_SLG": 0.425,
"predicted_SO": 0.869
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1515,
"predicted_3B": 0.0108,
"predicted_AB": 3.2541,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2438,
"predicted_BB": 0.331,
"predicted_H": 0.7939,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.1358,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3153,
"predicted_R": 0.4258,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4472,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4226,
"predicted_SO": 0.8657
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.146,
"after": 0.1515,
"delta": 0.0055,
"percent_delta": 0.0377,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.0108,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.08,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.152,
"after": 3.2541,
"delta": 0.1021,
"percent_delta": 0.0324,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.243,
"after": 0.2438,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0033,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.343,
"after": 0.331,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -0.035,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.766,
"after": 0.7939,
"delta": 0.0279,
"percent_delta": 0.0364,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.136,
"after": 0.1358,
"delta": -0.0002,
"percent_delta": -0.0015,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.317,
"after": 0.3153,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.0054,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.411,
"after": 0.4258,
"delta": 0.0148,
"percent_delta": 0.036,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.44,
"after": 0.4472,
"delta": 0.0072,
"percent_delta": 0.0164,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.425,
"after": 0.4226,
"delta": -0.0024,
"percent_delta": -0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.869,
"after": 0.8657,
"delta": -0.0033,
"percent_delta": -0.0038,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.152,
"after": 3.2541,
"delta": 0.1021,
"percent_delta": 0.0324,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 0,
"last_10": 0,
"season": 0
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1515,
"predicted_3B": 0.0108,
"predicted_AB": 3.2541,
"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.331,
"predicted_H": 0.7939,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.1358,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3138,
"predicted_R": 0.4258,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4472,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4224,
"predicted_SO": 0.8657
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1515,
"after": 0.1515,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0108,
"after": 0.0108,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2541,
"after": 3.2541,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2438,
"after": 0.244,
"delta": 0.0002,
"percent_delta": 0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.331,
"after": 0.331,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7939,
"after": 0.7939,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.033,
"after": 0.033,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1358,
"after": 0.1358,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3153,
"after": 0.3138,
"delta": -0.0015,
"percent_delta": -0.0048,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4258,
"after": 0.4258,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4472,
"after": 0.4472,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4226,
"after": 0.4224,
"delta": -0.0002,
"percent_delta": -0.0005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8657,
"after": 0.8657,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.042",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1515,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1515,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0108,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0108,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2541,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.2541,
"percent_delta": -0.0781,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.331,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.331,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7939,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.2061,
"percent_delta": 0.2596,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.033,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.033,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1358,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1358,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3138,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4224,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3138,
"delta": -0.0192,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": 0.0894,
"percent_delta": 0.2683,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -0.089,
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.146,
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"delta": 0.854,
"percent_delta": 5.8493,
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"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.152,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.848,
"percent_delta": 0.269,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.001,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.343,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.343,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.766,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.234,
"percent_delta": 0.3055,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.136,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.136,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.317,
"after": 0.3138,
"delta": -0.0032,
"percent_delta": -0.0101,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.411,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.411,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.44,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.44,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.425,
"after": 0.4224,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.869,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.869,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.146,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.854,
"percent_delta": 5.8493,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.869,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.869,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "deboosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.146 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.152 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.343 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.766 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.136 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.317 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.411 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.425 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.869 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.151 | 0.006 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.254 | 0.102 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.331 | -0.012 |
| predicted_H | 0.794 | 0.028 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.136 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.426 | 0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.447 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.423 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.866 | -0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.151 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.254 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.331 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.794 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.136 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.426 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.447 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.422 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.866 | 0.000 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.042
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.151 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.254 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.089 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.331 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.206 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.136 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.426 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.447 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.089 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.134 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.60 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 |
| predicted_R | 0.5050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4099 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1460 | 0.1810 | 0.1515 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 | 0.0150 | 0.0108 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.1520 | 3.8000 | 3.2541 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2430 | 0.2480 | 0.2438 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3430 | 0.2670 | 0.3310 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7660 | 0.9430 | 0.7939 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0330 | 0.0330 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1360 | 0.1350 | 0.1358 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3170 | 0.3060 | 0.3153 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4110 | 0.5050 | 0.4258 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4400 | 0.4860 | 0.4472 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4250 | 0.4099 | 0.4226 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8690 | 0.8480 | 0.8657 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_BB: 0.3280 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.6720, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8140 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8140, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 3.4099 (boost 0.0729, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8337 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1663, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4371 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4371, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4519 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4519, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2447 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0883, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4038 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0708, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_BB: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4038 (boost 0.0708, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2447 (deboost -0.0883, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "generic_away_2",
"player_name": "Player-generic_away_2",
"position": "C",
"team": "AL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 3.337,
"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.328,
"predicted_H": 0.814,
"predicted_HR": 0.116,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.442,
"predicted_RBI": 0.428,
"predicted_SLG": 0.403,
"predicted_SO": 0.831
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1591,
"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
"predicted_AB": 3.4099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2446,
"predicted_BB": 0.3184,
"predicted_H": 0.8343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3111,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4041,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.155,
"after": 0.1591,
"delta": 0.0041,
"percent_delta": 0.0265,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0133,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0231,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.337,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0729,
"percent_delta": 0.0218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2446,
"delta": 0.0006,
"percent_delta": 0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.3184,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.0293,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 0.8343,
"delta": 0.0203,
"percent_delta": 0.0249,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 0.119,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0259,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3111,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 0.4519,
"delta": 0.0099,
"percent_delta": 0.0224,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.4371,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0213,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4041,
"delta": 0.0011,
"percent_delta": 0.0027,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 0.8337,
"delta": 0.0027,
"percent_delta": 0.0032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.337,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0729,
"percent_delta": 0.0218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 0,
"last_10": 0,
"season": 0
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1591,
"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
"predicted_AB": 3.4099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.3184,
"predicted_H": 0.8343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1591,
"after": 0.1591,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0133,
"after": 0.0133,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4099,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2446,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": 0.0001,
"percent_delta": 0.0004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3184,
"after": 0.3184,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8343,
"after": 0.8343,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.033,
"after": 0.033,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.119,
"after": 0.119,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3111,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4519,
"after": 0.4519,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4371,
"after": 0.4371,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4041,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8337,
"after": 0.8337,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1591,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1591,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0133,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4099,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.4099,
"percent_delta": -0.1202,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3184,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3184,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8343,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1657,
"percent_delta": 0.1986,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.033,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.033,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.119,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.119,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4371,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4371,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8337,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1663,
"percent_delta": 0.1995,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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{
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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},
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},
{
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"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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],
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}
},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
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"stats": {
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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],
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}
},
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.0,
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},
{
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"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.002,
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"material": false
},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.672,
"percent_delta": 2.0488,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.000 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.088 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.318 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.166 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.437 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.166 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.60 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 |
| predicted_R | 0.5050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4099 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 | 0.1810 | 0.1591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0150 | 0.0133 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3370 | 3.8000 | 3.4099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2480 | 0.2446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3280 | 0.2670 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8140 | 0.9430 | 0.8343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0330 | 0.0330 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1160 | 0.1350 | 0.1190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3060 | 0.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4420 | 0.5050 | 0.4519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4280 | 0.4860 | 0.4371 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4030 | 0.4099 | 0.4041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8310 | 0.8480 | 0.8337 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.8140 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.1860, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.4420 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4420, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 3.4099 (boost 0.0729, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8337 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1663, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4371 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4371, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4519 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4519, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2447 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0883, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4038 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0708, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4038 (boost 0.0708, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2447 (deboost -0.0883, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "generic_away_1",
"player_name": "Player-generic_away_1",
"position": "1B",
"team": "AL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 3.337,
"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.328,
"predicted_H": 0.814,
"predicted_HR": 0.116,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.442,
"predicted_RBI": 0.428,
"predicted_SLG": 0.403,
"predicted_SO": 0.831
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1591,
"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
"predicted_AB": 3.4099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2446,
"predicted_BB": 0.3184,
"predicted_H": 0.8343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3111,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4041,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.155,
"after": 0.1591,
"delta": 0.0041,
"percent_delta": 0.0265,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0133,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0231,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.337,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0729,
"percent_delta": 0.0218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2446,
"delta": 0.0006,
"percent_delta": 0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.3184,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.0293,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 0.8343,
"delta": 0.0203,
"percent_delta": 0.0249,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 0.119,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0259,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3111,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 0.4519,
"delta": 0.0099,
"percent_delta": 0.0224,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.4371,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0213,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4041,
"delta": 0.0011,
"percent_delta": 0.0027,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 0.8337,
"delta": 0.0027,
"percent_delta": 0.0032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.337,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0729,
"percent_delta": 0.0218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 0,
"last_10": 0,
"season": 0
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1591,
"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
"predicted_AB": 3.4099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.3184,
"predicted_H": 0.8343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1591,
"after": 0.1591,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0133,
"after": 0.0133,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4099,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2446,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": 0.0001,
"percent_delta": 0.0004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3184,
"after": 0.3184,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8343,
"after": 0.8343,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.033,
"after": 0.033,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.119,
"after": 0.119,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3111,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4519,
"after": 0.4519,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4371,
"after": 0.4371,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4041,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8337,
"after": 0.8337,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1591,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1591,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0133,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4099,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.4099,
"percent_delta": -0.1202,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3184,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3184,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8343,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1657,
"percent_delta": 0.1986,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.033,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.033,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.119,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.119,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4371,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4371,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8337,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1663,
"percent_delta": 0.1995,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.8337,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1663,
"percent_delta": 0.1995,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
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},
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},
{
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{
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{
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
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{
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},
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],
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}
},
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.428,
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.000 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.088 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.318 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.166 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.437 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.166 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.60 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 |
| predicted_R | 0.5050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4099 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 | 0.1810 | 0.1591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0150 | 0.0133 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3370 | 3.8000 | 3.4099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2480 | 0.2446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3280 | 0.2670 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8140 | 0.9430 | 0.8343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0330 | 0.0330 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1160 | 0.1350 | 0.1190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3060 | 0.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4420 | 0.5050 | 0.4519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4280 | 0.4860 | 0.4371 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4030 | 0.4099 | 0.4041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8310 | 0.8480 | 0.8337 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | 4.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.8310 -> 4.0000 (boost 3.1690, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8140 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8140, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 3.4099 (boost 0.0729, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8337 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1663, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4371 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4371, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4519 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4519, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2447 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0883, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4038 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0708, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 3.0000, worse) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4038 (boost 0.0708, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2447 (deboost -0.0883, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "generic_away_4",
"player_name": "Player-generic_away_4",
"position": "2B",
"team": "AL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 3.337,
"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.328,
"predicted_H": 0.814,
"predicted_HR": 0.116,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.442,
"predicted_RBI": 0.428,
"predicted_SLG": 0.403,
"predicted_SO": 0.831
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1591,
"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
"predicted_AB": 3.4099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2446,
"predicted_BB": 0.3184,
"predicted_H": 0.8343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3111,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4041,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.155,
"after": 0.1591,
"delta": 0.0041,
"percent_delta": 0.0265,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0133,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0231,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.337,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0729,
"percent_delta": 0.0218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2446,
"delta": 0.0006,
"percent_delta": 0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.3184,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.0293,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 0.8343,
"delta": 0.0203,
"percent_delta": 0.0249,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 0.119,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0259,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3111,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 0.4519,
"delta": 0.0099,
"percent_delta": 0.0224,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.4371,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0213,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4041,
"delta": 0.0011,
"percent_delta": 0.0027,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 0.8337,
"delta": 0.0027,
"percent_delta": 0.0032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.337,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0729,
"percent_delta": 0.0218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 0,
"last_10": 0,
"season": 0
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1591,
"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
"predicted_AB": 3.4099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.3184,
"predicted_H": 0.8343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1591,
"after": 0.1591,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0133,
"after": 0.0133,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4099,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2446,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": 0.0001,
"percent_delta": 0.0004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3184,
"after": 0.3184,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8343,
"after": 0.8343,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.033,
"after": 0.033,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.119,
"after": 0.119,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3111,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4519,
"after": 0.4519,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4371,
"after": 0.4371,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4041,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8337,
"after": 0.8337,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1591,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1591,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0133,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4099,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.4099,
"percent_delta": -0.1202,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3184,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3184,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8343,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1657,
"percent_delta": 0.1986,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.033,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.033,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.119,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.119,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4371,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4371,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8337,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1663,
"percent_delta": 0.1995,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8337,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1663,
"percent_delta": 0.1995,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4371,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4371,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
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{
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],
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},
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},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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},
{
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},
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],
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},
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
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},
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{
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},
{
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},
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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"predicted_SO": 4.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.442,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.0,
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},
{
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"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.002,
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"material": false
},
{
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"before": 0.831,
"after": 4.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 7,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.000 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.088 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.318 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.166 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.437 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.166 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 4.000 | 3.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.60 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 |
| predicted_R | 0.5050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4099 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 | 0.1810 | 0.1591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0150 | 0.0133 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3370 | 3.8000 | 3.4099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2480 | 0.2446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3280 | 0.2670 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8140 | 0.9430 | 0.8343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0330 | 0.0330 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1160 | 0.1350 | 0.1190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3060 | 0.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4420 | 0.5050 | 0.4519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4280 | 0.4860 | 0.4371 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4030 | 0.4099 | 0.4041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8310 | 0.8480 | 0.8337 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 4 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.6630, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8310 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8310, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 3.4099 (boost 0.0729, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8337 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1663, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4371 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4371, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4519 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4519, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2447 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0883, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4038 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0708, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4038 (boost 0.0708, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2447 (deboost -0.0883, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "generic_away_5",
"player_name": "Player-generic_away_5",
"position": "3B",
"team": "AL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 3.337,
"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.328,
"predicted_H": 0.814,
"predicted_HR": 0.116,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.442,
"predicted_RBI": 0.428,
"predicted_SLG": 0.403,
"predicted_SO": 0.831
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1591,
"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
"predicted_AB": 3.4099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2446,
"predicted_BB": 0.3184,
"predicted_H": 0.8343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3111,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4041,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.155,
"after": 0.1591,
"delta": 0.0041,
"percent_delta": 0.0265,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0133,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0231,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.337,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0729,
"percent_delta": 0.0218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2446,
"delta": 0.0006,
"percent_delta": 0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.3184,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.0293,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 0.8343,
"delta": 0.0203,
"percent_delta": 0.0249,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 0.119,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0259,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3111,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 0.4519,
"delta": 0.0099,
"percent_delta": 0.0224,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.4371,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0213,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4041,
"delta": 0.0011,
"percent_delta": 0.0027,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 0.8337,
"delta": 0.0027,
"percent_delta": 0.0032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.337,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0729,
"percent_delta": 0.0218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 0,
"last_10": 0,
"season": 0
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1591,
"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
"predicted_AB": 3.4099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.3184,
"predicted_H": 0.8343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1591,
"after": 0.1591,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0133,
"after": 0.0133,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4099,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2446,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": 0.0001,
"percent_delta": 0.0004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3184,
"after": 0.3184,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8343,
"after": 0.8343,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.033,
"after": 0.033,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.119,
"after": 0.119,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3111,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4519,
"after": 0.4519,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4371,
"after": 0.4371,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4041,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8337,
"after": 0.8337,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1591,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1591,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0133,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4099,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.4099,
"percent_delta": -0.1202,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3184,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3184,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8343,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1657,
"percent_delta": 0.1986,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.033,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.033,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.119,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.119,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4371,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4371,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8337,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1663,
"percent_delta": 0.1995,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.8337,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1663,
"percent_delta": 0.1995,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4371,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4371,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0,
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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{
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{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.814,
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.312,
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},
{
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"before": 0.442,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.428,
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.002,
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 0.0,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.337,
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"delta": 0.663,
"percent_delta": 0.1987,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.000 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.088 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.318 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.166 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.437 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.166 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.60 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 |
| predicted_R | 0.5050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4099 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 | 0.1810 | 0.1591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0150 | 0.0133 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3370 | 3.8000 | 3.4099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2480 | 0.2446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3280 | 0.2670 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8140 | 0.9430 | 0.8343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0330 | 0.0330 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1160 | 0.1350 | 0.1190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3060 | 0.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4420 | 0.5050 | 0.4519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4280 | 0.4860 | 0.4371 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4030 | 0.4099 | 0.4041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8310 | 0.8480 | 0.8337 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.8310 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.1690, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.4420 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4420, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 3.4099 (boost 0.0729, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8337 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1663, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4371 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4371, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4519 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4519, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2447 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0883, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4038 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0708, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4038 (boost 0.0708, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2447 (deboost -0.0883, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "generic_away_6",
"player_name": "Player-generic_away_6",
"position": "SS",
"team": "AL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 3.337,
"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.328,
"predicted_H": 0.814,
"predicted_HR": 0.116,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.442,
"predicted_RBI": 0.428,
"predicted_SLG": 0.403,
"predicted_SO": 0.831
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
"predicted_AB": 3.4099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2446,
"predicted_BB": 0.3184,
"predicted_H": 0.8343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3111,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4041,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"before": 0.155,
"after": 0.1591,
"delta": 0.0041,
"percent_delta": 0.0265,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"after": 0.0133,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0231,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.337,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0729,
"percent_delta": 0.0218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2446,
"delta": 0.0006,
"percent_delta": 0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.3184,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.0293,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 0.8343,
"delta": 0.0203,
"percent_delta": 0.0249,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 0.119,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0259,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3111,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 0.4519,
"delta": 0.0099,
"percent_delta": 0.0224,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.4371,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0213,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4041,
"delta": 0.0011,
"percent_delta": 0.0027,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 0.8337,
"delta": 0.0027,
"percent_delta": 0.0032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.337,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0729,
"percent_delta": 0.0218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 0,
"last_10": 0,
"season": 0
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
"predicted_AB": 3.4099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.3184,
"predicted_H": 0.8343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.1591,
"after": 0.1591,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0133,
"after": 0.0133,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"before": 3.4099,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2446,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": 0.0001,
"percent_delta": 0.0004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3184,
"after": 0.3184,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8343,
"after": 0.8343,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.033,
"after": 0.033,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.119,
"after": 0.119,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3111,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4519,
"after": 0.4519,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4371,
"after": 0.4371,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4041,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8337,
"after": 0.8337,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1591,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1591,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.0133,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4099,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.4099,
"percent_delta": -0.1202,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3184,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3184,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.8343,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1657,
"percent_delta": 0.1986,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.033,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.033,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.119,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.119,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4371,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4371,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8337,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1663,
"percent_delta": 0.1995,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.8337,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1663,
"percent_delta": 0.1995,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.4371,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4371,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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],
"summary": {
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
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},
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
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},
{
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{
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},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0238,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.814,
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"percent_delta": 0.2285,
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},
{
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"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.312,
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"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.428,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.002,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.169,
"percent_delta": 1.4067,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 6,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.442,
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"delta": -0.442,
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"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.000 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.088 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.318 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.166 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.437 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.166 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.60 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 |
| predicted_R | 0.5050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4099 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 | 0.1810 | 0.1591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0150 | 0.0133 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3370 | 3.8000 | 3.4099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2480 | 0.2446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3280 | 0.2670 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8140 | 0.9430 | 0.8343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0330 | 0.0330 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1160 | 0.1350 | 0.1190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3060 | 0.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4420 | 0.5050 | 0.4519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4280 | 0.4860 | 0.4371 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4030 | 0.4099 | 0.4041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8310 | 0.8480 | 0.8337 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | 1.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_HR: 0.1160 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8840, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8310 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8310, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 3.4099 (boost 0.0729, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8337 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1663, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4371 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4371, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4519 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4519, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2447 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0883, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4038 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0708, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4038 (boost 0.0708, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2447 (deboost -0.0883, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "generic_away_8",
"player_name": "Player-generic_away_8",
"position": "LF",
"team": "AL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 3.337,
"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.328,
"predicted_H": 0.814,
"predicted_HR": 0.116,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.442,
"predicted_RBI": 0.428,
"predicted_SLG": 0.403,
"predicted_SO": 0.831
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1591,
"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
"predicted_AB": 3.4099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2446,
"predicted_BB": 0.3184,
"predicted_H": 0.8343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3111,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4041,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"before": 0.155,
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"delta": 0.0041,
"percent_delta": 0.0265,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"after": 0.0133,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0231,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"before": 3.337,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0729,
"percent_delta": 0.0218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2446,
"delta": 0.0006,
"percent_delta": 0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.3184,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.0293,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 0.8343,
"delta": 0.0203,
"percent_delta": 0.0249,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 0.119,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0259,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3111,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 0.4519,
"delta": 0.0099,
"percent_delta": 0.0224,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.4371,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0213,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4041,
"delta": 0.0011,
"percent_delta": 0.0027,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 0.8337,
"delta": 0.0027,
"percent_delta": 0.0032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.337,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0729,
"percent_delta": 0.0218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 0,
"last_10": 0,
"season": 0
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1591,
"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
"predicted_AB": 3.4099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.3184,
"predicted_H": 0.8343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
},
"changed_metrics": [
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"before": 0.1591,
"after": 0.1591,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0133,
"after": 0.0133,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"before": 3.4099,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2446,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": 0.0001,
"percent_delta": 0.0004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3184,
"after": 0.3184,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8343,
"after": 0.8343,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.033,
"after": 0.033,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.119,
"after": 0.119,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3111,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4519,
"after": 0.4519,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4371,
"after": 0.4371,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4041,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8337,
"after": 0.8337,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
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"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1591,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1591,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0133,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.0133,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.4099,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.4099,
"percent_delta": -0.1202,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.3184,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.3184,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8343,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1657,
"percent_delta": 0.1986,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.033,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.033,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.119,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.119,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4371,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4371,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8337,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1663,
"percent_delta": 0.1995,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 0.8337,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1663,
"percent_delta": 0.1995,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4371,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4371,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"delta": -0.4519,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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},
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0238,
"percent_delta": -0.0715,
"direction": "deboost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": 0.0708,
"percent_delta": 0.2127,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"percent_delta": -0.101,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 0.116,
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"delta": 0.884,
"percent_delta": 7.6207,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
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"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.558,
"percent_delta": 1.2624,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.572,
"percent_delta": 1.3364,
"direction": "boost",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.002,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.831,
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 3,
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"percent_delta": 7.6207,
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.000 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.088 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.318 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.166 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.437 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.166 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.60 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 |
| predicted_R | 0.5050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4099 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 | 0.1810 | 0.1591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0150 | 0.0133 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3370 | 3.8000 | 3.4099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2480 | 0.2446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3280 | 0.2670 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8140 | 0.9430 | 0.8343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0330 | 0.0330 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1160 | 0.1350 | 0.1190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3060 | 0.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4420 | 0.5050 | 0.4519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4280 | 0.4860 | 0.4371 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4030 | 0.4099 | 0.4041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8310 | 0.8480 | 0.8337 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.6630, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8140 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8140, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 3.4099 (boost 0.0729, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8337 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1663, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4371 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4371, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4519 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4519, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2447 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0883, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4038 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0708, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4038 (boost 0.0708, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2447 (deboost -0.0883, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "generic_away_7",
"player_name": "Player-generic_away_7",
"position": "CF",
"team": "AL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
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"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_AB": 3.337,
"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.328,
"predicted_H": 0.814,
"predicted_HR": 0.116,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.442,
"predicted_RBI": 0.428,
"predicted_SLG": 0.403,
"predicted_SO": 0.831
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
"predicted_AB": 3.4099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2446,
"predicted_BB": 0.3184,
"predicted_H": 0.8343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3111,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4041,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
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{
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{
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"direction": "boost",
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0213,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
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{
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"after": 0.4041,
"delta": 0.0011,
"percent_delta": 0.0027,
"direction": "no_change",
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{
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"weights": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
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"last_10": 0,
"season": 0
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
"predicted_AB": 3.4099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.3184,
"predicted_H": 0.8343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"after": 0.8343,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
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{
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{
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{
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"material": false
},
{
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"after": 0.4519,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"before": 0.4041,
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"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0007,
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{
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}
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{
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"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
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"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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{
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},
{
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"delta": -0.4099,
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{
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{
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{
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"material": false
},
{
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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"delta": -0.4371,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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{
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1663,
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
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"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
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"biggest_deboost": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
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"before": 3.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4519,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4519,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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{
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],
"summary": {
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": -1.0,
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": -0.0238,
"percent_delta": -0.0715,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0708,
"percent_delta": 0.2127,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
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}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
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"projection_effect": "worse",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
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},
{
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
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"material": true
},
{
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"before": 0.116,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
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"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.442,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.428,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.002,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.169,
"percent_delta": 0.2034,
"direction": "boost",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.337,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.663,
"percent_delta": 0.1987,
"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"before": 0.814,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.814,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.000 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.088 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.318 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.166 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.437 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.166 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.60 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 |
| predicted_R | 0.5050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4099 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 | 0.1810 | 0.1591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0150 | 0.0133 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3370 | 3.8000 | 3.4099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2480 | 0.2446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3280 | 0.2670 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8140 | 0.9430 | 0.8343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0330 | 0.0330 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1160 | 0.1350 | 0.1190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3060 | 0.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4420 | 0.5050 | 0.4519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4280 | 0.4860 | 0.4371 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4030 | 0.4099 | 0.4041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8310 | 0.8480 | 0.8337 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | 1.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | boosted |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 5 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 3 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_HR: 0.1160 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.8840, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.3370, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 3.4099 (boost 0.0729, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8337 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1663, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4371 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4371, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4519 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4519, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2447 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0883, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4038 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0708, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | predicted_HR: 0.0000 -> 1.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4038 (boost 0.0708, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2447 (deboost -0.0883, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "generic_away_9",
"player_name": "Player-generic_away_9",
"position": "RF",
"team": "AL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 3.337,
"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.328,
"predicted_H": 0.814,
"predicted_HR": 0.116,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.442,
"predicted_RBI": 0.428,
"predicted_SLG": 0.403,
"predicted_SO": 0.831
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
"predicted_AB": 3.4099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2446,
"predicted_BB": 0.3184,
"predicted_H": 0.8343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3111,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4041,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
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{
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{
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"direction": "boost",
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{
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{
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"delta": -0.0096,
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{
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"delta": 0.0203,
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{
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{
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{
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"delta": 0.0099,
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{
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"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0213,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
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{
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"after": 0.4041,
"delta": 0.0011,
"percent_delta": 0.0027,
"direction": "no_change",
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{
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"weights": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 0,
"last_10": 0,
"season": 0
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
"predicted_AB": 3.4099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.3184,
"predicted_H": 0.8343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
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{
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{
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{
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"delta": -0.0019,
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"material": false
},
{
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"before": 0.4519,
"after": 0.4519,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"after": 0.4371,
"delta": 0.0,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4041,
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"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0007,
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{
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}
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{
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"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
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"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
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"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1663,
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"direction": "boost",
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"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
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"stats": {
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"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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"material": false
},
{
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"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4519,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4519,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
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{
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"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
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},
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{
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"stats": {
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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],
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},
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
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"predicted_DH": 0.0,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
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"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
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}
],
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}
},
"weights": {},
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}
],
"total_change": {
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"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
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},
{
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{
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
"summary": {
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},
"biggest_deboost": {
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},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "boosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.000 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.088 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.318 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.166 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.437 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.166 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.60 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 |
| predicted_R | 0.5050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4099 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 | 0.1810 | 0.1591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0150 | 0.0133 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3370 | 3.8000 | 3.4099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2480 | 0.2446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3280 | 0.2670 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8140 | 0.9430 | 0.8343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0330 | 0.0330 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1160 | 0.1350 | 0.1190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3060 | 0.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4420 | 0.5050 | 0.4519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4280 | 0.4860 | 0.4371 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4030 | 0.4099 | 0.4041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8310 | 0.8480 | 0.8337 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Pitching_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_ER | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 8.000 | 8.000 | 8.000 | Pitching_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_IP | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 8.000 | 8.000 | 8.000 | Pitching_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 0.1000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.9000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | starter_usage_guardrail | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 0.1000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.9000, better) | - | Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "starter_1",
"player_name": "Player-starter_1",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "AL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 8.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.1,
"predicted_SO": 8.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
"description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 8.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 8.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.9,
"percent_delta": 29.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.9,
"percent_delta": 29.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_ER": 3.0,
"predicted_H": 8.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 3.0,
"predicted_R": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 8.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.9,
"percent_delta": 29.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 8.0,
"after": 8.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.9,
"percent_delta": 29.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 8.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_SO | 8.000 | - |
Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 8.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 3.000 | 2.900 |
| predicted_SO | 8.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.20 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.1200 |
| predicted_ER | 0.1690 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.5713 |
| predicted_H | 0.3250 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0510 |
| predicted_IP | 0.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.3190 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3359 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.0000 | 0.1200 | 0.0273 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 3.0000 | 0.1690 | 2.3559 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.5713 | 4.5713 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 8.0000 | 0.3250 | 6.2539 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 2.0000 | 0.0510 | 1.5566 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 8.0000 | 0.3190 | 6.2526 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3359 | 1.3359 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 3.0 |
| H | 8 |
| R | 3 |
| ER | 3 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 8 |
| HR | 2 |
| BF | 32 |
| Pitches | 113 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Pitcher | Player-starter_1 |
| Role | Starter |
| Projection Source | league_average_stable_fallback |
| Savant Quality Score | - |
| ESPN Rank | - |
| Movement Available | - |
| Primary Pitch | - |
| Movement Score | - |
| Avg Velo | - |
| Avg Spin | - |
| HB Inches | - |
| IVB Inches | - |
| Release Extension | - |
| Pre IP | 3 |
| Pre ER | 2 |
| Pre H | 6 |
| Pre BB | 1 |
| Pre SO | 10 |
| Season ERA | - |
| Season WHIP | - |
| Role Avg IP | - |
| Recent Avg IP | - |
| Last Start IP | - |
{
"method": "team_form_snapshot",
"role": "pitcher",
"team": {
"team": "NL",
"games": 0,
"wins": 0,
"losses": 0,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 0,
"runs_allowed": 0,
"run_differential": 0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.541477640959171,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.541477640959171,
"offense_index": 1.0,
"defense_index": 1.0,
"current_streak": "0",
"recent": {
"games": 0,
"wins": 0,
"losses": 0,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.541477640959171,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.541477640959171,
"run_differential": 0
},
"available": false
},
"opponent": {
"team": "AL",
"games": 0,
"wins": 0,
"losses": 0,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"runs_scored": 0,
"runs_allowed": 0,
"run_differential": 0,
"run_differential_per_game": 0.0,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.541477640959171,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.541477640959171,
"offense_index": 1.0,
"defense_index": 1.0,
"current_streak": "0",
"recent": {
"games": 0,
"wins": 0,
"losses": 0,
"win_pct": 0.5,
"avg_runs_scored": 4.541477640959171,
"avg_runs_allowed": 4.541477640959171,
"run_differential": 0
},
"available": false
},
"edges": {
"quality_edge": 0.0,
"offense_edge": 0.0,
"opponent_offense_edge": 0.0,
"defense_strength": 0.0,
"opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0,
"recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
},
"player_factors": {
"ip": 1.0,
"run_prevention": 1.0,
"strikeout": 1.0
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No pitcher-specific recent-form block was stored for this row.",
"display_fallback": "Use Player Form Blend windows for last-5, last-10, and season pitcher form."
}{}{
"method": "weighted_recent_form",
"description": "Recent form with overlapping-window de-duplication and Bayesian league-prior shrinkage for small samples",
"weights": {
"last_5": 0.45,
"last_10": 0.35,
"season": 0.2
},
"effective_weights": {},
"shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 0.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.0,
"prior_weight": 1.0
},
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "starter_1",
"report_date": "20260714_A",
"season_year": 2026,
"rows_used": 0,
"reference_playing_time": 0.1,
"windows": {
"last_5": {
"games": 0,
"totals": {
"IP": 0.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 0.0,
"Pitches": 0.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 0.0,
"Pitches": 0.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": null,
"WHIP": null,
"ER_per_IP": null,
"H_per_IP": null,
"BB_per_IP": null,
"SO_per_IP": null,
"HR_per_IP": null
}
},
"last_10": {
"games": 0,
"totals": {
"IP": 0.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 0.0,
"Pitches": 0.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 0.0,
"Pitches": 0.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": null,
"WHIP": null,
"ER_per_IP": null,
"H_per_IP": null,
"BB_per_IP": null,
"SO_per_IP": null,
"HR_per_IP": null
}
},
"season": {
"games": 0,
"totals": {
"IP": 0.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 0.0,
"Pitches": 0.0
},
"per_game": {
"IP": 0.0,
"ER": 0.0,
"R": 0.0,
"H": 0.0,
"BB": 0.0,
"SO": 0.0,
"HR": 0.0,
"BF": 0.0,
"Pitches": 0.0
},
"rates": {
"ERA": null,
"WHIP": null,
"ER_per_IP": null,
"H_per_IP": null,
"BB_per_IP": null,
"SO_per_IP": null,
"HR_per_IP": null
}
}
},
"weighted_prediction": {
"predicted_IP": 0.1,
"predicted_ER": 0.169,
"predicted_H": 0.325,
"predicted_BB": 0.12,
"predicted_SO": 0.319,
"predicted_HR": 0.051,
"predicted_ERA": 4.5713,
"predicted_WHIP": 1.3359
}
}{
"requested_model_weight": 0.35,
"requested_form_weight": 0.65,
"model_weight": 0.7725,
"form_weight": 0.2275,
"form_reliability": 0.0,
"form_shrinkage": {
"method": "bayesian_league_prior",
"sample_size": 0.0,
"sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
"prior_size": 5.0,
"data_weight": 0.0,
"prior_weight": 1.0
},
"applied_metrics": {
"predicted_IP": {
"model": 0.1,
"form": 0.1,
"final": 0.1,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ER": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.169,
"final": 1.5834,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_H": {
"model": 6.0,
"form": 0.325,
"final": 4.7089,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_BB": {
"model": 1.0,
"form": 0.12,
"final": 0.7998,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_SO": {
"model": 10.0,
"form": 0.319,
"final": 7.7976,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_HR": {
"model": 2.0,
"form": 0.051,
"final": 1.5566,
"source": "model_form_blend"
},
"predicted_ERA": {
"model": null,
"form": 4.5713,
"final": 4.5713,
"source": "form_only"
},
"predicted_WHIP": {
"model": null,
"form": 1.3359,
"final": 1.3359,
"source": "form_only"
}
}
}{
"available": false,
"reason": "No per-inning pitch ledger was stored by the simulation.",
"display_fallback": "Use player_form_blend windows for recent workload and pitch count."
}| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.146 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.152 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.343 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.766 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.136 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.317 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.411 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.425 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.869 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | deboosted |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 3 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 5 |
| Better Metrics | 4 |
| Worse Metrics | 4 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.7660 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.2340, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8690 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8690, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.1520 -> 3.2541 (boost 0.1021, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_H: 0.7939 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.2061, better) | predicted_RBI: 0.4472 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4472, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.042 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4258 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4258, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2440 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0890, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4224 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0894, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4224 (boost 0.0894, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2440 (deboost -0.0890, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "generic_home_3",
"player_name": "Player-generic_home_3",
"position": "DH",
"team": "NL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.146,
"predicted_3B": 0.01,
"predicted_AB": 3.152,
"predicted_AVG": 0.243,
"predicted_BB": 0.343,
"predicted_H": 0.766,
"predicted_HR": 0.136,
"predicted_OBP": 0.317,
"predicted_R": 0.411,
"predicted_RBI": 0.44,
"predicted_SLG": 0.425,
"predicted_SO": 0.869
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1515,
"predicted_3B": 0.0108,
"predicted_AB": 3.2541,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2438,
"predicted_BB": 0.331,
"predicted_H": 0.7939,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.1358,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3153,
"predicted_R": 0.4258,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4472,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4226,
"predicted_SO": 0.8657
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.146,
"after": 0.1515,
"delta": 0.0055,
"percent_delta": 0.0377,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.0108,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.08,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.152,
"after": 3.2541,
"delta": 0.1021,
"percent_delta": 0.0324,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.243,
"after": 0.2438,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.0033,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.343,
"after": 0.331,
"delta": -0.012,
"percent_delta": -0.035,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.766,
"after": 0.7939,
"delta": 0.0279,
"percent_delta": 0.0364,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.136,
"after": 0.1358,
"delta": -0.0002,
"percent_delta": -0.0015,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.317,
"after": 0.3153,
"delta": -0.0017,
"percent_delta": -0.0054,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.411,
"after": 0.4258,
"delta": 0.0148,
"percent_delta": 0.036,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.44,
"after": 0.4472,
"delta": 0.0072,
"percent_delta": 0.0164,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.425,
"after": 0.4226,
"delta": -0.0024,
"percent_delta": -0.0056,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.869,
"after": 0.8657,
"delta": -0.0033,
"percent_delta": -0.0038,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.152,
"after": 3.2541,
"delta": 0.1021,
"percent_delta": 0.0324,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 0,
"last_10": 0,
"season": 0
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1515,
"predicted_3B": 0.0108,
"predicted_AB": 3.2541,
"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.331,
"predicted_H": 0.7939,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.1358,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3138,
"predicted_R": 0.4258,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4472,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4224,
"predicted_SO": 0.8657
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1515,
"after": 0.1515,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0108,
"after": 0.0108,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.2541,
"after": 3.2541,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.2438,
"after": 0.244,
"delta": 0.0002,
"percent_delta": 0.0008,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.331,
"after": 0.331,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.7939,
"after": 0.7939,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.033,
"after": 0.033,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.1358,
"after": 0.1358,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3153,
"after": 0.3138,
"delta": -0.0015,
"percent_delta": -0.0048,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4258,
"after": 0.4258,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4472,
"after": 0.4472,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4226,
"after": 0.4224,
"delta": -0.0002,
"percent_delta": -0.0005,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8657,
"after": 0.8657,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.042",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.1515,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1515,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": -0.0108,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": -0.2541,
"percent_delta": -0.0781,
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},
{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.2061,
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"direction": "boost",
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{
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"delta": -0.033,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.1358,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
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"delta": -0.4472,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8657,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.1343,
"percent_delta": 0.1551,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 7,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
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"delta": 0.2061,
"percent_delta": 0.2596,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
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"delta": -0.4472,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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},
{
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"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4258,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.4258,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
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"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.333,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3138,
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"delta": 0.0192,
"percent_delta": 0.0612,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4224,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": -0.0894,
"percent_delta": -0.2116,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": 0.089,
"percent_delta": 0.3648,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4224,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": -0.0894,
"percent_delta": -0.2116,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 4,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3138,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4224,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.244,
"delta": -0.089,
"percent_delta": -0.2674,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3138,
"delta": -0.0192,
"percent_delta": -0.0577,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4224,
"delta": 0.0894,
"percent_delta": 0.2683,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4224,
"delta": 0.0894,
"percent_delta": 0.2683,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.244,
"delta": -0.089,
"percent_delta": -0.2674,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.146,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.146,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.01,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.01,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.152,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.848,
"percent_delta": 0.269,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.243,
"after": 0.244,
"delta": 0.001,
"percent_delta": 0.0041,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.343,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.343,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.766,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.234,
"percent_delta": 1.611,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.136,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.136,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.317,
"after": 0.3138,
"delta": -0.0032,
"percent_delta": -0.0101,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.411,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.589,
"percent_delta": 1.4331,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.44,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.44,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.425,
"after": 0.4224,
"delta": -0.0026,
"percent_delta": -0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.869,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.869,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 4,
"worse_metrics": 4,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.766,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.234,
"percent_delta": 1.611,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.869,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.869,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "deboosted"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.146 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.010 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.152 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.243 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.343 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.766 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.136 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.317 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.411 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.440 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.425 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.869 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.151 | 0.006 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.001 |
| predicted_AB | 3.254 | 0.102 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.331 | -0.012 |
| predicted_H | 0.794 | 0.028 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.136 | -0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.315 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.426 | 0.015 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.447 | 0.007 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.423 | -0.002 |
| predicted_SO | 0.866 | -0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.151 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.011 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.254 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.331 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.794 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.136 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.314 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.426 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.447 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.422 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.866 | 0.000 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.042
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.151 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.011 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.254 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.089 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.331 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.206 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.136 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.019 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.426 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.447 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.089 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.134 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.60 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 |
| predicted_R | 0.5050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4099 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1460 | 0.1810 | 0.1515 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0100 | 0.0150 | 0.0108 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.1520 | 3.8000 | 3.2541 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2430 | 0.2480 | 0.2438 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3430 | 0.2670 | 0.3310 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.7660 | 0.9430 | 0.7939 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0330 | 0.0330 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1360 | 0.1350 | 0.1358 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3170 | 0.3060 | 0.3153 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4110 | 0.5050 | 0.4258 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4400 | 0.4860 | 0.4472 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4250 | 0.4099 | 0.4226 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8690 | 0.8480 | 0.8657 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.250 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | 0.500 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | 3.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 3 |
| Worse Metrics | 5 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.8310 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.1690, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_R: 0.4420 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4420, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 3.4099 (boost 0.0729, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8337 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1663, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4371 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4371, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4519 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4519, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2447 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0883, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4038 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0708, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.0000, worse) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4038 (boost 0.0708, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2447 (deboost -0.0883, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "generic_home_4",
"player_name": "Player-generic_home_4",
"position": "C",
"team": "NL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.155,
"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 3.337,
"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.328,
"predicted_H": 0.814,
"predicted_HR": 0.116,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.442,
"predicted_RBI": 0.428,
"predicted_SLG": 0.403,
"predicted_SO": 0.831
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1591,
"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
"predicted_AB": 3.4099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2446,
"predicted_BB": 0.3184,
"predicted_H": 0.8343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3111,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4041,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.155,
"after": 0.1591,
"delta": 0.0041,
"percent_delta": 0.0265,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0133,
"delta": 0.0003,
"percent_delta": 0.0231,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.337,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0729,
"percent_delta": 0.0218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2446,
"delta": 0.0006,
"percent_delta": 0.0025,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.3184,
"delta": -0.0096,
"percent_delta": -0.0293,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 0.8343,
"delta": 0.0203,
"percent_delta": 0.0249,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 0.119,
"delta": 0.003,
"percent_delta": 0.0259,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3111,
"delta": -0.0009,
"percent_delta": -0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 0.4519,
"delta": 0.0099,
"percent_delta": 0.0224,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.4371,
"delta": 0.0091,
"percent_delta": 0.0213,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4041,
"delta": 0.0011,
"percent_delta": 0.0027,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 0.8337,
"delta": 0.0027,
"percent_delta": 0.0032,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
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"before": 3.337,
"after": 3.4099,
"delta": 0.0729,
"percent_delta": 0.0218,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {
"xgboost_raw": 0.55,
"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
"last_5": 0.2,
"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
"last_5": 0,
"last_10": 0,
"season": 0
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.1591,
"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
"predicted_AB": 3.4099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.3184,
"predicted_H": 0.8343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"before": 0.1591,
"after": 0.1591,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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"after": 0.0133,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
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"after": 0.2447,
"delta": 0.0001,
"percent_delta": 0.0004,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.8343,
"after": 0.8343,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.033,
"after": 0.033,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"after": 0.119,
"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.3111,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0019,
"percent_delta": -0.0061,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4519,
"after": 0.4519,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.4371,
"after": 0.4371,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4041,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": -0.0003,
"percent_delta": -0.0007,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.8337,
"after": 0.8337,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 0,
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"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 4,
"step": "ab_floor_and_scaling",
"description": "AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
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"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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"direction": "deboost",
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{
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"delta": 0.1663,
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"direction": "boost",
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}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 5,
"better_metrics": 1,
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"biggest_boost": {
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"direction": "boost",
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"material": true
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"biggest_deboost": {
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"direction": "deboost",
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 5,
"step": "consistency_constraints",
"description": "Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R",
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"predicted_SF": 0.0,
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},
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{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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"delta": 0.0,
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.4519,
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"delta": -0.4519,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
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"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
"description": "Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.333,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
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"predicted_SLG": 0.333,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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"direction": "boost",
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},
{
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": -0.0708,
"percent_delta": -0.1753,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
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"delta": 0.0,
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"direction": "no_change",
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"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
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"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.4038,
"after": 0.333,
"delta": -0.0708,
"percent_delta": -0.1753,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
"description": "Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 3,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": 2.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 3.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": -0.0883,
"percent_delta": -0.2653,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0238,
"percent_delta": -0.0715,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0708,
"percent_delta": 0.2127,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0708,
"percent_delta": 0.2127,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": -0.0883,
"percent_delta": -0.2653,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.155,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.845,
"percent_delta": 5.4516,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.337,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.663,
"percent_delta": 0.1987,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.328,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.186,
"percent_delta": 0.2285,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.116,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.442,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.428,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.002,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.169,
"percent_delta": 2.6101,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 3,
"worse_metrics": 5,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.169,
"percent_delta": 2.6101,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.442,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.000 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.088 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.318 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.166 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.437 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.166 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.60 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 |
| predicted_R | 0.5050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4099 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 | 0.1810 | 0.1591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0150 | 0.0133 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3370 | 3.8000 | 3.4099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2480 | 0.2446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3280 | 0.2670 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8140 | 0.9430 | 0.8343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0330 | 0.0330 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1160 | 0.1350 | 0.1190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3060 | 0.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4420 | 0.5050 | 0.4519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4280 | 0.4860 | 0.4371 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4030 | 0.4099 | 0.4041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8310 | 0.8480 | 0.8337 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 3 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.6630, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8140 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8140, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 3.4099 (boost 0.0729, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8337 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1663, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4371 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4371, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4519 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4519, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2447 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0883, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4038 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0708, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4038 (boost 0.0708, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2447 (deboost -0.0883, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "generic_home_1",
"player_name": "Player-generic_home_1",
"position": "1B",
"team": "NL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "xgboost_raw",
"description": "Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback",
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"predicted_3B": 0.013,
"predicted_AB": 3.337,
"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.328,
"predicted_H": 0.814,
"predicted_HR": 0.116,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.442,
"predicted_RBI": 0.428,
"predicted_SLG": 0.403,
"predicted_SO": 0.831
},
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"summary": {
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"deboosted_metrics": 0,
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"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
"stats": {
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"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
"predicted_AB": 3.4099,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2446,
"predicted_BB": 0.3184,
"predicted_H": 0.8343,
"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3111,
"predicted_R": 0.4519,
"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4041,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
},
"changed_metrics": [
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
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{
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},
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
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{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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},
{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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"delta": 0.0091,
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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"delta": 0.0011,
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},
{
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}
],
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"weights": {
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"weighted_form": 0.45,
"form_windows": {
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"last_10": 0.2,
"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
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"last_10": 0,
"season": 0
}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0133,
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"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
"predicted_HR": 0.119,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.4371,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 0.8337
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},
{
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},
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},
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},
{
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},
{
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}
],
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{
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{
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"weights": {},
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{
"index": 6,
"step": "embedded_savant_player_context",
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},
"weights": {},
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{
"index": 7,
"step": "simulation_box_score_reference",
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"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": -0.0883,
"percent_delta": -0.2653,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0238,
"percent_delta": -0.0715,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0708,
"percent_delta": 0.2127,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0708,
"percent_delta": 0.2127,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": -0.0883,
"percent_delta": -0.2653,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.155,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.155,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.337,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.663,
"percent_delta": 0.1987,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.328,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.814,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.116,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.442,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.428,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.002,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.169,
"percent_delta": 0.2034,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.337,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.663,
"percent_delta": 0.1987,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.814,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.000 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.088 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.318 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.166 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.437 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.166 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.60 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 |
| predicted_R | 0.5050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4099 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 | 0.1810 | 0.1591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0150 | 0.0133 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3370 | 3.8000 | 3.4099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2480 | 0.2446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3280 | 0.2670 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8140 | 0.9430 | 0.8343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0330 | 0.0330 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1160 | 0.1350 | 0.1190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3060 | 0.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4420 | 0.5050 | 0.4519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4280 | 0.4860 | 0.4371 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4030 | 0.4099 | 0.4041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8310 | 0.8480 | 0.8337 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_SO: 0.8310 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.1690, worse) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8140 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8140, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 3.4099 (boost 0.0729, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8337 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1663, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4371 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4371, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4519 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4519, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2447 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0883, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4038 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0708, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4038 (boost 0.0708, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2447 (deboost -0.0883, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "generic_home_2",
"player_name": "Player-generic_home_2",
"position": "2B",
"team": "NL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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"predicted_AVG": 0.244,
"predicted_BB": 0.328,
"predicted_H": 0.814,
"predicted_HR": 0.116,
"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.442,
"predicted_RBI": 0.428,
"predicted_SLG": 0.403,
"predicted_SO": 0.831
},
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
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"predicted_HBP": 0.033,
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},
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}
},
"window_games": {
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}
},
{
"index": 3,
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{
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{
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"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 2.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": -0.0883,
"percent_delta": -0.2653,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0238,
"percent_delta": -0.0715,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0708,
"percent_delta": 0.2127,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0708,
"percent_delta": 0.2127,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": -0.0883,
"percent_delta": -0.2653,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.155,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.155,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.337,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.663,
"percent_delta": 0.1987,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.328,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.814,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.116,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.442,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.428,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.002,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.169,
"percent_delta": 1.4067,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.169,
"percent_delta": 1.4067,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.814,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.000 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.088 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.318 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.166 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.437 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.166 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.60 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 |
| predicted_R | 0.5050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4099 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 | 0.1810 | 0.1591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0150 | 0.0133 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3370 | 3.8000 | 3.4099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2480 | 0.2446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3280 | 0.2670 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8140 | 0.9430 | 0.8343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0330 | 0.0330 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1160 | 0.1350 | 0.1190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3060 | 0.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4420 | 0.5050 | 0.4519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4280 | 0.4860 | 0.4371 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4030 | 0.4099 | 0.4041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8310 | 0.8480 | 0.8337 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 2 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 0 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 8 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | - |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8310 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8310, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 3.4099 (boost 0.0729, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8337 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1663, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4371 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4371, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4519 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4519, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2447 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0883, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4038 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0708, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | - | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4038 (boost 0.0708, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2447 (deboost -0.0883, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "generic_home_6",
"player_name": "Player-generic_home_6",
"position": "3B",
"team": "NL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
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"predicted_RBI": 0.428,
"predicted_SLG": 0.403,
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},
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"index": 2,
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"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": -0.0883,
"percent_delta": -0.2653,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0238,
"percent_delta": -0.0715,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0708,
"percent_delta": 0.2127,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0708,
"percent_delta": 0.2127,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": -0.0883,
"percent_delta": -0.2653,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.155,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.155,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.337,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.337,
"percent_delta": -0.101,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.328,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.814,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.116,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.442,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.428,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.002,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.831,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 8,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.831,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.000 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.088 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.318 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.166 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.437 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.166 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.60 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 |
| predicted_R | 0.5050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4099 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 | 0.1810 | 0.1591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0150 | 0.0133 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3370 | 3.8000 | 3.4099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2480 | 0.2446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3280 | 0.2670 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8140 | 0.9430 | 0.8343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0330 | 0.0330 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1160 | 0.1350 | 0.1190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3060 | 0.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4420 | 0.5050 | 0.4519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4280 | 0.4860 | 0.4371 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4030 | 0.4099 | 0.4041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8310 | 0.8480 | 0.8337 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.667 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.667 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | 1.667 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 4 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 4 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.8140 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.1860, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8310 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8310, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 3.4099 (boost 0.0729, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8337 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1663, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4371 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4371, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4519 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4519, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2447 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0883, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4038 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0708, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4038 (boost 0.0708, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2447 (deboost -0.0883, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "generic_home_7",
"player_name": "Player-generic_home_7",
"position": "SS",
"team": "NL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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},
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}
},
"window_games": {
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}
},
{
"index": 3,
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{
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{
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"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 1.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": -0.0883,
"percent_delta": -0.2653,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0238,
"percent_delta": -0.0715,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0708,
"percent_delta": 0.2127,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0708,
"percent_delta": 0.2127,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": -0.0883,
"percent_delta": -0.2653,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.155,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.155,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.337,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.337,
"percent_delta": -0.101,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.328,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.186,
"percent_delta": 1.457,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.884,
"percent_delta": 7.6207,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.558,
"percent_delta": 1.2624,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.572,
"percent_delta": 1.3364,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.002,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.831,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 4,
"deboosted_metrics": 4,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.186,
"percent_delta": 1.457,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.831,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.000 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.088 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.318 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.166 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.437 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.166 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.60 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 |
| predicted_R | 0.5050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4099 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 | 0.1810 | 0.1591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0150 | 0.0133 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3370 | 3.8000 | 3.4099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2480 | 0.2446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3280 | 0.2670 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8140 | 0.9430 | 0.8343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0330 | 0.0330 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1160 | 0.1350 | 0.1190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3060 | 0.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4420 | 0.5050 | 0.4519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4280 | 0.4860 | 0.4371 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4030 | 0.4099 | 0.4041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8310 | 0.8480 | 0.8337 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 1 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | 4.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | 0.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 2 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 6 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 7 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 4.0000 (boost 0.6630, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_H: 0.8140 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8140, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 3.4099 (boost 0.0729, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8337 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1663, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4371 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4371, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4519 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4519, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2447 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0883, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4038 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0708, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | predicted_AB: 3.0000 -> 4.0000 (boost 1.0000, better) | predicted_H: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, worse) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4038 (boost 0.0708, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2447 (deboost -0.0883, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "generic_home_5",
"player_name": "Player-generic_home_5",
"position": "LF",
"team": "NL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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},
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},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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},
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}
},
{
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{
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{
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 2,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 1,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 0.3333,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 4.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 0.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 4.0,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": -0.0883,
"percent_delta": -0.2653,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0238,
"percent_delta": -0.0715,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0708,
"percent_delta": 0.2127,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0708,
"percent_delta": 0.2127,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": -0.0883,
"percent_delta": -0.2653,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.155,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.155,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.337,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.663,
"percent_delta": 0.1987,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.328,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.814,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.116,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.442,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.428,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.002,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.169,
"percent_delta": 0.2034,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 2,
"deboosted_metrics": 6,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 7,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.337,
"after": 4.0,
"delta": 0.663,
"percent_delta": 0.1987,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.814,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.000 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.088 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.318 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.166 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.437 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.166 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 4.000 | 1.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 4.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.60 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 |
| predicted_R | 0.5050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4099 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 | 0.1810 | 0.1591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0150 | 0.0133 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3370 | 3.8000 | 3.4099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2480 | 0.2446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3280 | 0.2670 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8140 | 0.9430 | 0.8343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0330 | 0.0330 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1160 | 0.1350 | 0.1190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3060 | 0.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4420 | 0.5050 | 0.4519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4280 | 0.4860 | 0.4371 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4030 | 0.4099 | 0.4041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8310 | 0.8480 | 0.8337 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 4 |
| AB | 4 |
| H | 0 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.667 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | 2.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.667 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | 1.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | 2.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | 2.000 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 6 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 2 |
| Better Metrics | 5 |
| Worse Metrics | 3 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_RBI: 0.4280 -> 2.0000 (boost 1.5720, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 3.0000 (deboost -0.3370, worse) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 3.4099 (boost 0.0729, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8337 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1663, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4371 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4371, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4519 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4519, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2447 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0883, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4038 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0708, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | predicted_RBI: 0.0000 -> 2.0000 (boost 2.0000, better) | - | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4038 (boost 0.0708, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2447 (deboost -0.0883, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "generic_home_8",
"player_name": "Player-generic_home_8",
"position": "CF",
"team": "NL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
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},
"weights": {},
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},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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}
},
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}
},
{
"index": 3,
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{
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{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": 1.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 1.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 5,
"boosted_metrics": 5,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 2.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 1.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 2.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 1.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 1.0,
"predicted_RBI": 2.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 1.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": -0.0883,
"percent_delta": -0.2653,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0238,
"percent_delta": -0.0715,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0708,
"percent_delta": 0.2127,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0708,
"percent_delta": 0.2127,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": -0.0883,
"percent_delta": -0.2653,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.155,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.845,
"percent_delta": 5.4516,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.337,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.337,
"percent_delta": -0.101,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.328,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.186,
"percent_delta": 1.457,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.884,
"percent_delta": 7.6207,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.558,
"percent_delta": 1.2624,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.572,
"percent_delta": 3.6729,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.002,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.169,
"percent_delta": 0.2034,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 6,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 5,
"worse_metrics": 3,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 1.572,
"percent_delta": 3.6729,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.337,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.337,
"percent_delta": -0.101,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.000 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.088 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.318 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.166 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.437 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.166 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 2.000 | 1.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| RBI | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.60 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 |
| predicted_R | 0.5050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4099 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 | 0.1810 | 0.1591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0150 | 0.0133 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3370 | 3.8000 | 3.4099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2480 | 0.2446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3280 | 0.2670 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8140 | 0.9430 | 0.8343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0330 | 0.0330 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1160 | 0.1350 | 0.1190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3060 | 0.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4420 | 0.5050 | 0.4519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4280 | 0.4860 | 0.4371 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4030 | 0.4099 | 0.4041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8310 | 0.8480 | 0.8337 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 2 |
| 2B | 1 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 1 |
| R | 1 |
| RBI | 2 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 1 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_2B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_3B | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Hitting_AB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_AVG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_CS | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | BaseRunning_CS | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_HR | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_OBP | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_R | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | 0.000 | 0.000 | Hitting_RBI | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | 0.333 | 0.333 | Hitting_SLG | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | 0.000 | 1.000 | Hitting_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | xgboost_raw |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | worse |
| Changed Metrics | 8 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 7 |
| Better Metrics | 2 |
| Worse Metrics | 6 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_H: 0.8140 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1860, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | predicted_SO: 0.8310 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.8310, better) |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | xgboost_raw | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback |
| 2 | weighted_recent_form_blend | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_AB: 3.3370 -> 3.4099 (boost 0.0729, better) | - | Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season. |
| 3 | team_form_snapshot | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed) |
| 4 | ab_floor_and_scaling | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 | predicted_SO: 0.8337 -> 1.0000 (boost 0.1663, worse) | predicted_RBI: 0.4371 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4371, worse) | AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035 |
| 5 | consistency_constraints | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | predicted_R: 0.4519 -> 0.0000 (deboost -0.4519, worse) | Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R |
| 6 | embedded_savant_player_context | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | predicted_AVG: 0.2447 -> 0.3330 (boost 0.0883, better) | predicted_SLG: 0.4038 -> 0.3330 (deboost -0.0708, worse) | Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter |
| 7 | simulation_box_score_reference | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - | predicted_SO: 1.0000 -> 0.0000 (deboost -1.0000, better) | Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction |
| 8 | current_json_final | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | predicted_SLG: 0.3330 -> 0.4038 (boost 0.0708, better) | predicted_AVG: 0.3330 -> 0.2447 (deboost -0.0883, worse) | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "batter",
"player_id": "generic_home_9",
"player_name": "Player-generic_home_9",
"position": "RF",
"team": "NL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
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"predicted_OBP": 0.312,
"predicted_R": 0.442,
"predicted_RBI": 0.428,
"predicted_SLG": 0.403,
"predicted_SO": 0.831
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},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "weighted_recent_form_blend",
"description": "Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.",
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},
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{
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},
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},
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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{
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],
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"weights": {
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"form_windows": {
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"season": 0.6
}
},
"window_games": {
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"last_10": 0,
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}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "team_form_snapshot",
"description": "Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)",
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},
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
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},
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},
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"metric": "predicted_OBP",
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},
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
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},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
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],
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{
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{
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{
"index": 6,
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{
"index": 7,
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{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 1,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -1.0,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 8,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_2B": 0.0,
"predicted_3B": 0.0,
"predicted_AB": 3.0,
"predicted_AVG": 0.2447,
"predicted_BB": 0.0,
"predicted_CS": 0.0,
"predicted_DH": 0.0,
"predicted_H": 1.0,
"predicted_HBP": 0.0,
"predicted_HR": 0.0,
"predicted_OBP": 0.3092,
"predicted_R": 0.0,
"predicted_RBI": 0.0,
"predicted_SB": 0.0,
"predicted_SF": 0.0,
"predicted_SLG": 0.4038,
"predicted_SO": 0.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": -0.0883,
"percent_delta": -0.2653,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_CS",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HBP",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0238,
"percent_delta": -0.0715,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SB",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SF",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0708,
"percent_delta": 0.2127,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.0,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": null,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 3,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 2,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 2,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0708,
"percent_delta": 0.2127,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.333,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": -0.0883,
"percent_delta": -0.2653,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
}
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "xgboost_raw",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_2B",
"before": 0.155,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.155,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_3B",
"before": 0.013,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.013,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AB",
"before": 3.337,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": -0.337,
"percent_delta": -0.101,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_AVG",
"before": 0.244,
"after": 0.2447,
"delta": 0.0007,
"percent_delta": 0.0029,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 0.328,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.328,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.186,
"percent_delta": 0.2285,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 0.116,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.116,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_OBP",
"before": 0.312,
"after": 0.3092,
"delta": -0.0028,
"percent_delta": -0.009,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_R",
"before": 0.442,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.442,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_RBI",
"before": 0.428,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.428,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "worse",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SLG",
"before": 0.403,
"after": 0.4038,
"delta": 0.0008,
"percent_delta": 0.002,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.831,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 8,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 7,
"better_metrics": 2,
"worse_metrics": 6,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 0.814,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.186,
"percent_delta": 0.2285,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": {
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 0.831,
"after": 0.0,
"delta": -0.831,
"percent_delta": -1.0,
"direction": "deboost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "worse"
}
}
}Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.155 | - |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | - |
| predicted_AB | 3.337 | - |
| predicted_AVG | 0.244 | - |
| predicted_BB | 0.328 | - |
| predicted_H | 0.814 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.116 | - |
| predicted_OBP | 0.312 | - |
| predicted_R | 0.442 | - |
| predicted_RBI | 0.428 | - |
| predicted_SLG | 0.403 | - |
| predicted_SO | 0.831 | - |
Final model input calibrated with local form: 55% XGBoost raw, 45% weighted form. Batter form uses 20% last 5 games, 20% last 10 games, 60% season.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.004 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.073 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.001 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | -0.010 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.020 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | - |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.003 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.311 | -0.001 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.010 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.009 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | 0.001 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.003 |
Step 3: player projection adjusted by team form snapshot (record, run differential, streak, offense, defense, runs allowed)
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.159 | 0.000 |
| predicted_3B | 0.013 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AB | 3.410 | 0.000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.245 | 0.000 |
| predicted_BB | 0.318 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 0.834 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.033 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 0.119 | 0.000 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.309 | -0.002 |
| predicted_R | 0.452 | 0.000 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.437 | 0.000 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.404 | -0.000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.834 | 0.000 |
AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.035
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | - |
| 3B | 0.000 | - |
| AB | 3.000 | - |
| BB | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | - |
| HBP | 0.000 | - |
| HR | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | - |
| SB | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | - |
Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | - |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| R | 0.000 | - |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | - |
| SO | 1.000 | 0.000 |
Player Savant profile contributed to the team run-environment adjustment against the opposing starter
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.000 | -0.159 |
| predicted_3B | 0.000 | -0.013 |
| predicted_AB | 3.000 | -0.410 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.333 | 0.088 |
| predicted_BB | 0.000 | -0.318 |
| predicted_H | 1.000 | 0.166 |
| predicted_HR | 0.000 | -0.119 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.333 | 0.024 |
| predicted_R | 0.000 | -0.452 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.000 | -0.437 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.333 | -0.071 |
| predicted_SO | 1.000 | 0.166 |
Attached simulation box score without overwriting model prediction
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| 2B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 3B | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| AB | 3.000 | 0.000 |
| BB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| CS | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| H | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| HBP | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| HR | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| PA | 3.000 | - |
| R | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RBI | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SB | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SF | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| SO | 0.000 | -1.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total PA | Total AB | Total H | Total 2B | Total 3B | Total HR | Total RBI | Total R | Total BB | Total SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | H_per_AB | HR_per_AB | RBI_per_AB | BB_per_AB | SO_per_AB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.20 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.60 | 0 | - | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1810 |
| predicted_3B | 0.0150 |
| predicted_AB | 3.8000 |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2480 |
| predicted_BB | 0.2670 |
| predicted_H | 0.9430 |
| predicted_HBP | 0.0330 |
| predicted_HR | 0.1350 |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3060 |
| predicted_R | 0.5050 |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4860 |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4099 |
| predicted_SO | 0.8480 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_2B | 0.1550 | 0.1810 | 0.1591 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_3B | 0.0130 | 0.0150 | 0.0133 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AB | 3.3370 | 3.8000 | 3.4099 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_AVG | 0.2440 | 0.2480 | 0.2446 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_BB | 0.3280 | 0.2670 | 0.3184 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_H | 0.8140 | 0.9430 | 0.8343 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HBP | - | 0.0330 | 0.0330 | form_only |
| predicted_HR | 0.1160 | 0.1350 | 0.1190 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_OBP | 0.3120 | 0.3060 | 0.3111 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_R | 0.4420 | 0.5050 | 0.4519 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_RBI | 0.4280 | 0.4860 | 0.4371 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SLG | 0.4030 | 0.4099 | 0.4041 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 0.8310 | 0.8480 | 0.8337 | model_form_blend |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 20% last 5 + 20% last 10 + 60% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=20%, last_10=20%, season=60% |
| Model calibration | 55% raw model + 45% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Hitter metrics | Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| PA | 3 |
| AB | 3 |
| H | 1 |
| 2B | 0 |
| 3B | 0 |
| HR | 0 |
| R | 0 |
| RBI | 0 |
| BB | 0 |
| SO | 0 |
| SF | 0 |
| HBP | 0 |
| season_avg | 0.0 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.
| Metric | XGBoost Raw | Final Simulated Prediction | Pre-Sim Finalized | True Data Column | Historical Baseline | Latest Real Game | Final - Baseline | Final - Latest Real |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 | Pitching_BB | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 | Pitching_ER | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 | Pitching_H | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_IP | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 | Pitching_InningsPitched | - | - | - | - |
| predicted_SO | 10.000 | 10.000 | 10.000 | Pitching_SO | - | - | - | - |
| Impact Item | Value |
|---|---|
| From | pitcher_form_blend |
| To | current_json_final |
| Dominant Effect | better |
| Changed Metrics | 1 |
| Boosted Metrics | 1 |
| Deboosted Metrics | 0 |
| Better Metrics | 1 |
| Worse Metrics | 0 |
| Biggest Boost | predicted_IP: 0.1000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.9000, better) |
| Biggest Deboost | - |
| # | Step | Changed | Boosted | Deboosted | Better | Worse | Biggest Boost | Biggest Deboost | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | pitcher_form_blend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage |
| 2 | starter_usage_guardrail | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | predicted_IP: 0.1000 -> 3.0000 (boost 2.9000, better) | - | Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context. |
| 3 | current_json_final | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | Final player values currently stored in the game JSON |
{
"trace_version": "1.0",
"role": "pitcher",
"player_id": "starter_1",
"player_name": "Player-starter_1",
"position": "Starter",
"team": "NL",
"interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
"steps": [
{
"index": 1,
"step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 0.1,
"predicted_SO": 10.0
},
"changed_metrics": [],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 2,
"step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
"description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 3.0,
"predicted_SO": 10.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.9,
"percent_delta": 29.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 10.0,
"after": 10.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.9,
"percent_delta": 29.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
},
{
"index": 3,
"step": "current_json_final",
"description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
"stats": {
"predicted_BB": 1.0,
"predicted_ER": 2.0,
"predicted_H": 6.0,
"predicted_HR": 2.0,
"predicted_IP": 3.0,
"predicted_R": 2.0,
"predicted_SO": 10.0
},
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 3.0,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 10.0,
"after": 10.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 0,
"boosted_metrics": 0,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 0,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": null,
"biggest_deboost": null
},
"weights": {},
"window_games": {}
}
],
"total_change": {
"from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
"to_step": "current_json_final",
"changed_metrics": [
{
"metric": "predicted_BB",
"before": 1.0,
"after": 1.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_ER",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_H",
"before": 6.0,
"after": 6.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_HR",
"before": 2.0,
"after": 2.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
},
{
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.9,
"percent_delta": 29.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
{
"metric": "predicted_SO",
"before": 10.0,
"after": 10.0,
"delta": 0.0,
"percent_delta": 0.0,
"direction": "no_change",
"projection_effect": "neutral",
"material": false
}
],
"summary": {
"changed_metrics": 1,
"boosted_metrics": 1,
"deboosted_metrics": 0,
"better_metrics": 1,
"worse_metrics": 0,
"biggest_boost": {
"metric": "predicted_IP",
"before": 0.1,
"after": 3.0,
"delta": 2.9,
"percent_delta": 29.0,
"direction": "boost",
"projection_effect": "better",
"material": true
},
"biggest_deboost": null,
"has_material_change": true,
"dominant_effect": "better"
}
}
}Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | - |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | - |
| predicted_HR | 2.000 | - |
| predicted_IP | 0.100 | - |
| predicted_SO | 10.000 | - |
Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.
| Metric | Value | Delta vs Prev Step |
|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_ER | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_H | 6.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_HR | 2.000 | 0.000 |
| predicted_IP | 3.000 | 2.900 |
| predicted_SO | 10.000 | 0.000 |
| Window | Weight | Games | Total IP | Total ER | Total H | Total BB | Total SO | Total HR | ERA | WHIP | ER_per_IP | H_per_IP | BB_per_IP | SO_per_IP | HR_per_IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| last_5 | 0.45 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| last_10 | 0.35 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| season | 0.20 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 0.1200 |
| predicted_ER | 0.1690 |
| predicted_ERA | 4.5713 |
| predicted_H | 0.3250 |
| predicted_HR | 0.0510 |
| predicted_IP | 0.1000 |
| predicted_SO | 0.3190 |
| predicted_WHIP | 1.3359 |
| Metric | Model | Weighted Form | Final Model Input | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| predicted_BB | 1.0000 | 0.1200 | 0.7998 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ER | 2.0000 | 0.1690 | 1.5834 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_ERA | - | 4.5713 | 4.5713 | form_only |
| predicted_H | 6.0000 | 0.3250 | 4.7089 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_HR | 2.0000 | 0.0510 | 1.5566 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_IP | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | 0.1000 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_SO | 10.0000 | 0.3190 | 7.7976 | model_form_blend |
| predicted_WHIP | - | 1.3359 | 1.3359 | form_only |
| Trace Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Primary player source | data/all_players_stats.csv |
| Rolling form windows | last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date |
| Blend formula | 45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season |
| Active form weights | last_5=45%, last_10=35%, season=20% |
| Model calibration | 35% raw model + 65% weighted form |
| Rows before report date | 0 |
| Season rows before report date | 0 |
| Report year | 2026 |
| Profile rows used | 0 |
| Pitcher metrics | Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB |
| Simulation Box Score Field | Value |
|---|---|
| IP | 3.0 |
| H | 6 |
| R | 2 |
| ER | 2 |
| BB | 1 |
| SO | 10 |
| HR | 2 |
| BF | 34 |
| Pitches | 119 |
No historical data found for this player before report date.